Automobiles
February 2018
9
| Auto Expo 2018
Automobile
Auto Expo 2018: Action in 125cc scooters and EVs
No big new launch in PVs
We attended Auto Expo 2018 held at Greater Noida, NCR. While there were no
major new launches in PVs, the 2W segment witnessed several launches in 125cc
scooters and the premium segment. Also, on expected lines, there was high focus
on EVs in all the segments, with several concepts on display and few launches as
well. Key highlights:
No major new launches in 4Ws:
In PVs, no major new launch was announced
except MSIL’s new Swift, which has already touched bookings of ~40k units and
waiting period of 8-10 weeks. Honda has launched new Amaze, new CR-V, and
new Civic while Toyota has launched Yaris in the mid size sedan segment. M&M
showcased G4 Rexton in the premium SUV segment under the Mahindra badge
while Tata Motors showcased H5X concept (expected launch by 4QFY19; to
compete with Hyundai’s Creta and M&M’s XUV 500) in the mid-SUV segment.
High focus on 125cc scooters and premium motorcycles:
In 2Ws, rising OEM
focus on the 125cc scooter segment was visible, with five new product launches
– TVS’ NTORQ 125, Hero’s Duet 125 and Maestro Edge 125, Suzuki’s Burgman
maxi-scooter and Piaggio Aprillia SR125. The premium motorcycle segment
witnessed further heating up of competition, with HMCL launching xPulse 200
and HMSI unveiling its third 160cc bike, X-Blade, which will be competing with
Bajaj Pulsar 160, Suzuki Gixxer and TVS Apache.
EVs – several concepts, a few launches:
As expected, there was high focus on
EVs across segments, with a slew of concepts unveiled in the PV and 2W
segments. 2W EV start-up, Twenty Two Motors launched lithium-ion based BEV
scooter, Flow at INR74,740 (post subsidy). Mahindra showcased its production-
ready eKUV100 apart from eVerito and e2o plus, which will further strengthen
its position to ride the EV wave. Ashok Leyland unveiled its first electric bus,
Circuit S, powered with Sun Mobility's Swappable Smart Battery.
Mahindra to strengthen EV presence through MESMA, a 380-volt powertrain:
M&M unveiled a range of electric vehicles (EVs) and of significant interest
among these was a preview of MESMA (Mahindra Electric Scalable Modular
Architecture). It’s a flexible platform and will be used to develop EVs – from
hatchbacks to SUVs. It showed concepts of lithium-ion battery powered three-
wheeler – Treo (e-Auto - 1st in India) and Atom – as a part of urban mobility
solutions.
TVS Motors showcased interesting concepts like Zeppelin – a premium 200cc
cruiser, Apache RTR – an ethanol-based concept, and CREON, an e-scooter
concept along with recent launch of NTORQ 125cc scooter.
Royal Enfield – competition gearing up: UM launched two cruiser bikes,
Renegade Duty S and Renegade Duty Ace at competitive price of INR110k (ex-
showroom Delhi). It also launched its first electric cruiser, Renegade Thor with a
price tag of INR490k (ex-showroom Delhi). Also, TVSL's Zeppelin concept is
aimed at cruiser segment.
Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah – Research Analyst
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com);
Suneeta Kamath – Research Analyst
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com)
9 February 2018
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 1: Auto Expo 2018: Key products showcased
Company
Passenger Vehicles
Maruti
Maruti
M&M
Tata Motors
Toyota
Honda Cars
Kia
Two-Wheelers
Hero MotoCorp
Hero MotoCorp
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
TVS Motor
TVS Motor
TVS Motor
Piaggio
HMSI
HMSI
Twenty Two Motors
UM
UM
Model
New Swift
Future S Concept
G4 Rexton
H5X Concept
Yaris
New Amaze
SP Concept
Maestro Edge 125
Duet 125
XPulse
NTORQ
Zeppelin Concept
Apache RTR Ethanol Concept
CREON Concept
Aprillia SR125
XBlade
Activa 5G
Flow
Renegade Duty S
Renegade Duty Ace
Segment
Compact Car
Premium SUV
Mid SUV
Compact Sedan
Compact Sedan
Compact SUV
Scooter 125cc
Scooter 125cc
Premium 200cc
Scooter 125cc
Premium (Cruiser) 200cc
Premium 200cc
E-Scooter
Scooter 125cc
Premium <200cc
Scooter 100cc
E-Scooter
Premium (Cruiser) 200cc
Premium (Cruiser) 200cc
Launch by
Feb-18
-
FY19
Apr-18
CY18
2HCY19
Feb-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
-
-
-
4QFY18
Feb-18
4QFY18
Feb-18
Jul-18
Jul-18
Segment leader
Maruti Swift, Baleno
Toyota Fortuner. Ford Endeavor
Hyundai Creta, M&M XUV
Maruti Ciaz, Honda City
Maruti Dzire
Maruti Vitara Brezza
HMSI Acitva 125
HMSI Acitva 125
Bajaj Pulsar
HMSI Acitva 125
Royal Enfield Classic
Bajaj Pulsar
HMSI Acitva 125
Bajaj Pulsar
Honda Activa
Royal Enfield Classic
Royal Enfield Classic
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 2: Auto Expo 2018: Focus was on 125cc scooters and EVs
Year
2010
2012
2012
2014
2014
2016
2018
2018
2018
Focus Segment
Small Cars
Uvs/MPVs
Scooters 110cc
Compact Sedans
Scooters 110cc
Compact car/sedan
Scooters 125cc
Electric PVs Concepts
Electric Buses
No. of launches in Focus
Segment
4
8
6
3
9
7
5
10
4
Key launches
Toyota Etios, Honda Brio, VW Polo
Maruti Ertiga, Ford EcoSport
Hero Maestro
Maruti Celerio, Hyundai Xcent
Honda Activa 125
Maruti Vitara Brezza, Tata Tiago
TVS Ntorq, HMCL Maestro Edge 125, Duet 125
TTMT, MM, MSIL, Hyundai, Kia
AL-Sun Mobility, TTMT, MM, JBM Auto
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
2

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 3: Implications on our coverage universe: Positive for MSIL, MM; Mixed bag for TVSL and Negative for BJAUT, RE
Company
Negative takeaways
Toyota's Yaris could pose credible competition to Ciaz. New Amaze
New Swift - Excellent package to replace higly successful seems to offer improved package than the outgoing model. Pricing key
model.
for success of these models. Also, Kia's SP Concept Compact SUV looks
promising, but still some time away.
Future S Concept interesting and different looking
product, though we will have to see how they position
it.
Though MM didn't showcase its upcoming MPV and
Tivoli based compact SUV, its showcasing of SYMC's G4 TTMT's H5X Concept (based on Discovery Sport platform) would
Rexton was step in right direction. MM has decided to challenge MM XUV5OO. Apart from this, there were not any
sell SYMC's product under MM's badge in India, starting competitive launches in MM's domain.
with Rexton.
It showcased Treo e-Auto - India's 1st e-Auto based on
Li-ion battery.
Also, MM showcased its MESMA EV platform, which is
developed grounds up and would be key for its future
EV models.
TTMT's H5X Concept (based on Discovery Sport
e-Buses segment is getting more attention with several launches by
platform) would be positioned in mid-size SUV segment. competitors like AL, MM & JBM Auto.
Showcased its EV solutions across PVs and Buses.
Showcased XPulse 200cc adventure bike - its attempt to Several e-Scooters were launched from start-ups like Twenty-Two
make a comeback in premium motorcycle.
Motors (Flow), Okinawa (Praise, Ridge) and concept from TVSL.
While HMCL has nothing to lose in 150-200cc premium motorcycle,
Launched two 125cc scooters - Maestro Edge 125cc and
competition is further heating up with new launches from HMSI
Duet 125cc, in fast growing 125cc segment.
(XBlade), TVS Apache RTR 200 Ethanol Concept, UM Duty twins etc.
150-200cc premium motorcycle is witnessing further heating up with
Didn't participate
new launches from HMSI (XBlade), TVS Apache RTR 200 Ethanol
Concept, UM Duty twins etc.
MM showcased India's first e-Auto - Treo based on Li-ion battery. e-
Auto segment has potential to disrupt competitive landscape for
BJAUT's cash cow 3W business.
Launched 125cc scooter NTORQ with very attractive
Several e-Scooters were launched from start-ups like Twenty-Two
package and pricing.
Motors (Flow), Okinawa (Praise, Ridge) etc.
As always, TVSL had very exicitng line-up of concepts
150-200cc premium motorcycle is witnessing further heating up with
like CREON, Zeppelin, Apache RTR 200 Ethanol.
new launches from HMSI (XBlade), HMCL xPulse, UM Duty twins etc.
While it has nothing to lose in 125cc scooter, it is turning into very
competitive space with 5 launches (incl TVSL).
Strong growth in Cruiser segment is attracting more competition, as
Didn't participate
reflected in launches from nascent player like UM (Duty twins) as well
as mainstream player like TVS showcasing Zeppeling Concept.
Source: Company, MOSL
Positive takeaways
MSIL
MM
TTMT
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
Royal
Enfield
Valuation and view
We prefer 4Ws over 2Ws and CVs due to stronger volume growth and a stable
competitive environment.
While we expect 2W volumes to benefit from a rural recovery in the near term,
competitive intensity remains high in the segment due to changing customer
preferences.
Our top picks in Autos are MSIL, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors.
We also consider MM as the best bet on a rural market recovery.
In the 2W space, we have
Buy
rating on BJAUT and EIM, and
Neutral
on HMCL
and TVSL.
9 February 2018
3

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 4: Comparative
valuations
CMP
INR
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja Batt.
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
Motherson Sumi
Mahindra CIE
3,104
3,546
664
750
8,946
369
134
27,743
762
208
798
19,529
1,147
360
214
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Rating
TP
(INR)
4,031
3,986
741
874
10,972
515
158
34,315
859
268
984
21,951
1,554
458
297
P/E (x)
FY19E
17.8
17.7
26.4
16.9
24.2
6.4
21.6
26.3
28.9
20.4
23.4
32.8
29.8
24.9
17.9
FY20E
15.4
16.7
19.6
15.4
19.0
6.3
17.4
20.8
22.2
17.9
19.4
26.7
22.2
19.6
14.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY19E
13.1
11.0
16.8
13.4
15.3
2.8
10.9
21.9
16.9
12.0
11.8
19.6
14.7
1.2
9.8
FY20E
11.0
10.1
12.5
11.8
12.3
2.5
8.9
17.7
13.6
10.6
9.8
15.9
11.6
0.6
8.0
RoE (%)
FY19E
25.3
32.0
35.3
14.6
22.8
24.3
24.7
34.6
23.4
14.4
18.1
17.9
23.8
28.1
11.8
FY20E
26.2
29.9
35.6
14.9
24.5
19.6
26.4
33.2
25.2
14.7
18.7
19.6
26.6
29.2
12.9
Div Yld (%)
FY19E
2.4
2.7
0.6
1.3
1.2
0.1
1.7
0.6
0.7
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.0
FY20E
2.7
3.0
0.8
1.3
1.5
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.8
1.5
0.8
1.3
1.1
1.4
0.0
EPS
CAGR (%)
FY18-20E
15.8
7.2
56.0
13.8
30.8
44.7
25.3
26.9
33.2
20.4
19.6
26.2
37.0
35.3
28.6
Exhibit 5: Maruti’s premium hatch back new Swift
Exhibit 6: Toyota’s Yaris mid-size sedan
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 7: Honda’s all new CIVIC
Exhibit 8: Honda’s compact sedan new Amaze
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
4

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 9: Mahindra badged SsangYong Rexton
Exhibit 10: Honda new 7 seater CV-V
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 11: TVS NTORQ – its first 125cc scooter
Exhibit 12: Suzuki’s Burgman 125cc scooter
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 13: Honda 160cc bike XBlade
Exhibit 14: Hero Xpluse 200
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
5

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 15: Flow electric 2W with removable lithium ion
battery
Exhibit 16: TVS CREON electric 2W concept with three lithium
ion batteries
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 17: AL’s electric bus Circuit 6 with swappable battery
Exhibit 18: JBM’s electric bus Solaris with Pantograph
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
6

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 19: M&M’s production ready eKUV100
Exhibit 20: Mahindra electric MESMA – 380 volte powertrain
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 21: Maruti Future S concept
Exhibit 22: Tata H5X concept mid SUV
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 23: Kia SP concept compact SUV
Exhibit 24: Mahindra Stinger concept based on TUV
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
7

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
Exhibit 25: TVS Zeppelin Concept premium cruiser 200cc
Exhibit 26: TVS Apache RTR ethanol concept 200cc
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
9 February 2018
8

Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
NOTES
9 February 2018
9

Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Automobiles | Auto Expo 2018
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm
Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real
Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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