BSE SENSEX
33,845
S&P CNX
10,397
Idea Cellular
CMP: INR83
TP: INR110(+32%)
Creating a war-chest to deal with competition
Raises INR35b via QIP
21 February 2018
Update
| Sector:
Telecom
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
IDEA IN
3,601
124 / 72
-14/-15/-41
305.0
4.7
2058.0
57.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
INR Billion
FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Sales
285.5 284.6 320.8
EBITDA
57.9
57.9
77.6
NP
-46.6 -50.7 -42.3
EPS (INR)
-10.7 -11.6
-9.7
EPS Gr. (%)
865.4
8.8 -16.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
61.6
49.9
49.4
RoE (%)
-18.1 -20.9 -21.4
RoCE (%)
-2.3
-2.5
-1.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
-7.9
-7.3
-8.7
P/BV (x)
1.4
1.7
1.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
13.4
13.9
10.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
Promoter
42.4
42.4
42.5
DII
8.1
8.5
6.9
FII
27.2
26.5
24.3
Others
22.3
22.6
26.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Idea Cellular
Sensex - Rebased
150
130
110
90
70
Idea Cellular (IDEA) announced that it has completed equity issuance of INR35b via
the qualified institutional placement (QIP) route (@INR82.5, 10% equity dilution).
This, along with capital raising of INR32.5b via preferential issue to promoters
(@INR99.5, 8% equity dilution), completes IDEA’s equity funding of INR67.5b (17%
dilution).
Total equity raising by Vodafone and Idea, along with the tower sale, will reduce the
combined entity’s (Vodafone + IDEA) net debt by INR295b to INR811b, thereby
reducing net debt-to-EBITDA to 3.9x on FY20E, assuming combined EBITDA of
INR210b (including synergy gains).
Fund-raising should provide Vodafone-Idea with much-needed liquidity to ramp-up
network and protect market share against deep-pocketed peers, especially in the
current hyper-competitive environment.
We maintain our Buy rating, with a target price of INR110, at 13x Idea’s Dec-19E
EBITDA. Implied EV/EBITDA for the combined entity is 7.4x on FY20E. Our estimated
Vodafone-Idea EBITDA margin of 30% (including synergies) for FY20 is still 650bp
lower than Bharti’s FY20 estimates.
Fund-raising of INR35b via QIP to dilute equity by 10%
IDEA’s board approved raising INR35b via QIP at INR82.5/share by allotting
~424.2m shares (leading to 10% equity dilution). This is at ~17% discount to the
preferential allotment (326.6m shares) price of INR99.5/share to its promoters (to
raise INR32.5b). Thus, the total allotment of 751m shares (to raise INR67.5b)
should lead to overall equity dilution of 17%, with the company’s (ex-merger) EPS
for FY19E at -INR11.6. Giving effect for both the transactions, the promoter’s
holding is expected to inch up to 42.6% (from 42.4% earlier).
Merged entity’s net debt-to-EBITDA to shrink sharply post-merger
The combined entity’s net debt could reduce by INR295b to INR811b, led by a)
Vodafone and Idea each raising INR67.5b prior to the merger, b) INR78.5b
proceeds from the sale of Vodafone and Idea towers to ATC and c) INR82b
estimated value of Idea’s 11% share in Indus. This could reduce the combined
entity’s net debt-to-EBITDA to ~3.9x by FY20, assuming combined EBITDA of
INR210b (including margin synergies of 10pp). However, the key risk is network
integration of the two large entities, which could delay synergy gains and also hurt
its competitive position in the current hyper-competitive environment.
Equity infusion – a key catalyst to remain competitive
In the current hyper-competitive market – where deep-pocketed peers would see
Vodafone-Idea’s vulnerable leverage position as an opportunity to squeeze
liquidity and grab market share, we see fund-raising as a strong proactive action
from management to tackle the challenges posed by competition. We believe fund-
raising should a) support accelerated network investment, b) protect its
revenue/subscriber market share and c) create war chest and also perception in
the marketplace that Vodafone-Idea combined stand in a strong cash liquidity
Aliasgar Shakir
– Research analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel
– Research analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3010 2611
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.