Page Industries
BSE SENSEX
34,142
S&P CNX
10,491
23 February 2018
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
CMP: INR22,759
TP: INR27,490 (+21%)
Buy
Massive growth opportunity available to sustain premium valuations
We met Page Industries’ (PAG) management, post which we have turned even more
optimistic about the company’s growth prospects.
Expansion of Exclusive Brand Outlets (EBOs) is happening at a massive pace. The
company is adding ~80 outlets in February/March 2018 and likely another 500 in
FY19, taking the total EBO count to ~1,000 by end-FY19.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
PAG IN
112.0
25779 / 13650
9/24/44
249.0
3.8
309.0
51.0
After forming ~15% of sales in FY17, EBOs are expected to contribute ~40% of sales
by FY20 – the year when all the new EBOs will complete at least a year of operations.
With average cash breakeven in 3-4 months and payback of around 2 years, EBOs are
an attractive business proposition to third-party franchisees. Compared to MBOs, the
potential for cross-selling is huge in EBOs.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Sales
25.4 32.3
41.1
EBITDA
5.2
7.1
9.3
PAT
3.3
4.6
6.1
EPS (INR)
297.1 415.7 549.8
Gr. (%)
24.5 39.9
32.2
BV/Sh (INR)
745.5 932.5 1152.5
RoE (%)
39.9 44.6
47.7
RoCE (%)
41.4 47.5
51.7
P/E (x)
76.6 54.7
41.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
48.6 35.5
27.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
Promoter
49.0
49.0
49.0
DII
5.2
5.7
4.8
FII
36.8
36.2
37.2
Others
9.0
9.1
9.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Page Industries
Sensex - Rebased
28,000
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
Apart from INR2b capex over FY17-20, the company plans to increase the proportion
of outsourced manufacturing to 35% by end-FY19 from 16-17% in FY17, as the growth
prospects are attractive.
PAG has demonstrated ample discipline on margins, which the company intends to
keep in a range to maximize the growth opportunity. Within its target market of
aspirers and above, the share of men’s innerwear is only ~17%, and of women’s
innerwear and sportswear is even lower at ~6%.
We maintain Buy with a target price of INR27,490, based on 50x March FY20E EPS –
at a 10% discount to the three-year average P/E.
Rapid EBO expansion reflects management’s confidence about the model
PAG operated 360 EBOs at end-March 2017. The contribution of EBOs to total
sales has increased significantly in recent years – from single-digits to ~15% in
FY17. These EBOs are a win-win proposition to both the company and the
franchisees. For PAG, EBOs generate several times higher sales than MBOs,
enable display of its full-range of products, and facilitate cross-selling. For the
EBO owner, the business metrics are favourable because, on average, cash
breakeven is attained in three months and payback in two years.
From ~420 stores at the beginning of February 2018, PAG is adding as many as
80 stores in February and March, taking the total number of stores to ~500 by
end-FY18. More impressively, the company is planning to add as many as 500
stores by end-FY19, doubling its store count to 1,000. From 15% of sales in
FY17, EBOs are expected to contribute ~40% of sales by FY20.
Such massive expansion is indicative of the strong confidence (of both
management and franchisees) about growth prospects of EBOs. We believe
that, with PAG’s entry into kids innerwear (boys wear products launched last
year saw excellent response and are now available at most EBOs; girls wear will
be launched in March 2018), the potential of cross-selling increases further.
Within its target market of aspirers and above, the share is only ~17% in case
of men’s innerwear, and 6% in women’s innerwear and sportswear.
EBOs are given 7% higher margins than MBOs. Of this, 3.5% comes from the
company and 3.5% from distributors.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.