BSE SENSEX
34,346
S&P CNX
10,554
AU Small Finance Bank
CMP: INR587
TP: INR705 (+21%)
Perfect start to a promising journey; Upgrading to Buy
28 February2018
Update | Sector: Financials
Upgrade to Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
AUBANK IN
284.3
739/358
-9/-1/-
198.1
3.1
1285
67.1
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MAR
FY18E FY19E FY20E
NII
11.4
17.0
23.4
PPP
6.1
8.7
12.2
PAT
3.0
4.3
6.1
EPS
10.6
15.3
21.6
BV/Share
80.8
96.4 118.4
P/E (x)
54.9
38.2
27.0
P/BV (x)
7.2
6.0
4.9
RoA (x)
1.8
1.9
2.0
ROE(X)
14.1
17.2
20.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-17
Promoter
32.7
DII
11.6
FII
7.3
Others
48.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (since listing)
AU Small Finance
Sensex - Rebased
AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) has reported strong progress as it undertakes
transitioning from a leading retail-focused NBFC (AU Finance) to a small finance bank
(SFB). While migration to an SFB is expected to weigh on the return ratios over the near
term, we believe operating costs should peak out in FY18E and will begin to gradually
improve thereafter. The bank continues to record robust balance sheet growth and has
also surprised positively in terms of liability franchise development (2.7x CD ratio, 37%
CASA ratio within three quarters of banking operations), which should provide cushion
against a decline in yields. We expect 42% earnings CAGR over FY18-20E, driving RoA/RoE
to 1.98%/20.1% in FY20E. Post the recent correction, the stock trades at 4.9x FY20E BV
and 27x FY20E EPS. In view of its long-term sustainable business and earnings growth
potential, we believe that AUBANK should continue trading at a premium. We thus
upgrade the stock to Buy with a target price of INR705 (unchanged), based on 5.9x FY20E
BV/32.7x FY20E EPS.
Business growth remains robust; diversification set to improve further
Post transition to an SFB, AUBANK has launched several new deposit/lending
products and also expanded its presence in chosen geographies. Business growth,
too, continues to be strong (67% YoY loan growth; 38% YoY AUM growth). Aided by
its strong distribution network and launch of new products (including housing
finance), AUBANK should deliver 42% loan book CAGR over FY18-20E in our view.
We believe loan mix and geographical diversification will add stability to the
franchise and help maintain steady growth.
Deposit accretion surprises positively; will help cushion against drop in
yields arising from banking transition
Sep-17
32.9
10.2
6.4
50.5
AUBANK has surprised positively in terms of liability franchise development (88%
YoY deposits growth in 3Q) and demonstrated robust CASA growth (CASA ratio at
37%, +400bp QoQ). Deposits now form ~37% of total credit v/s 23% in 2QFY18 –
this should provide protection against a decline in yields, containing contraction in
the NIM (~80bp moderation over FY17-20E).
Earnings growth to accelerate from FY19E; cost ratios have likely peaked
700
500
300
100
We expect the return ratios to bounce back to healthy levels over FY19-20E as opex
ratios have likely peaked out in FY18E while strong build-up of liability franchise
will cushion NIM contraction. We believe a diversified loan book, wide
geographical presence and strong underwriting skills across different lending
segments will enable AUBANK to complete its SFB transition expeditiously. We
expect RoA/RoE to bottom out at 1.82%/14.1% in FY18 and recover to
1.98%/20.1% by FY20E.
Valuation and view
We expect a CAGR of 43% in loan book and 42% in PAT over FY18-20, with RoA/RoE
of 1.98%/20.1% in FY20. Post the recent correction, the stock trades at 4.9x FY20E
BV, and we believe AUBANK should continue trading at a premium, given its
superior performance and accelerated SFB transition. We upgrade to Buy with a TP
of INR705 (unchanged), based on two-stage GGM, corresponding to 5.9x FY20E BV.
Our PT corresponds to 32.7x FY20E EPS even as we expect the bank to deliver 40%+
earnings CAGR over the medium term.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540 |
Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.