22 March 2018
India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 33,006
S&P CNX: 10,115
Nifty reconstitution: Financials’ weight to inch up further
Healthcare weight to reduce to nine-year low; Marginal downgrade in Nifty EPS
NSE Nifty-50 composition is all set for a reshuffle on Monday, 2 April 2018. Bajaj
Finserv, Grasim Industries and Titan Company will replace Ambuja Cement,
Aurobindo Pharma and Bosch in the index.
In this report, we highlight how these changes will (i) impact the earnings for the
benchmark and (ii) alter the weights of various sectors.
nd
NBFC’s weight in the index has
increased 390bp since CY09
NBFC
Nifty-50 reconstitution: NBFC set to command double-digit index weight
The weight of Financials has seen a secular rise in the benchmark indices. Post
the reshuffle, BFSI will have an index weight of 35.7% (+20bp from current
level; +3x in 10 years). Notably, BFSI’s weight will be more than the combined
weights of Oil, Technology and Auto.
Bajaj Finserv will be included in the benchmark with 0.8% weight, taking NBFC’s
weight to 10% – implying a 60bp increase from the current level and almost
50% rise from its weight in CY16 (6.6%).
Grasim Industries will enter with a weight of 1.1% and Titan with 0.9%.
With the exit of Aurobindo Pharma (weight: 0.4%), Healthcare’s weight would
reduce to a nine-year low of 3.2%.
Other sectors that would lose their weight in the benchmark are Automobile (-
50bp), Private Banks (-40bp), Technology (-20bp) and Oil & Gas (-20bp).
Least impacted sectors would be Metals, Utilities, Capital Goods, PSU Banks
and Telecom.
Aggregate weight of the existing 47 Nifty-50 stocks will decline by 150bp post
the reshuffle.
Top-10 stocks to be most impacted (in terms of weight) by the reshuffle would
be HDFC Bank (-15bp), Reliance Ind (-12bp), HDFC (-11bp), Infosys (-9bp), ITC
(-9bp), ICICI Bank (-7bp), L&T (-6bp), TCS (-6bp), Kotak Mahindra Bank (-5bp)
and Maruti Suzuki (-5bp).
Top-10 stocks contribute 55.6% of Nifty-50. Post reshuffle, this is likely to come
down to 54.7% (-90bp).
Of the top-10 stocks to be most impacted, four are from Private Financials
Trend in weights of 25 common
stocks of Nifty since CY07 (%)
50% of Nifty constituents unchanged over 10 years
Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 25 have been part of the index since 10 years.
Of these 25, four each are from Auto, BFSI, Oil & Gas and Technology.
Consumer, Healthcare and Metals have two stocks each, while Capital Goods,
Telecom and Utilities have one stock in the index.
Combined weight of these 25 stocks will decline 110bp to 72% post reshuffle.
In CY17, Nifty-50 saw the highest number of stocks reshuffled in a particular
calendar year – total seven stocks have been reshuffled. Since CY12, 27 stocks
have been reshuffled.
Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Deven Mistry – Research Analyst
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5440
Mar 2017
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
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