Commodities Daily
Overview
•
•
Asian Markets trades lower, Dollar/yen drops below
105 for first time since Nov 2016.
Treasury yields also sharply lower amid risk aversion,
Trump moves towards China tariffs, stokes trade war
fears
Crude up as Saudis say production curbs could last
into 2019, US Rig count, US Home sales due today.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Close
Precious metals
Gold
Silver
Energy
WTI Crude oil
Brent Crude
Natural gas
Base metals – LME
COMEX Copper
Copper
Aluminium
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Others
DXY
US 10yr
CBOE VIX
89.86
2.80
23.38
344
6691
2067
13095
2353
3216
64.26
70.00
2.63
1328.6
16.36
%Chg.
-0.2%
-1.0%
-1.9%
0.8%
0.1%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
-1.0%
30.9%
•
Precious Metals
Gold rallied to two week high on weaker dollar, as
investors scuttled to caution after U.S President Trump
took forward steps for long promised anti-China tariffs,
inciting fears of global trade war. Presidential
memorandum signed by Trump will target $60 billion
worth of Chinese goods, which becomes operation
after 30-day consultation period once list of goods is
published. China in retaliation imposed $3biilion of U.S
imports on Chinese steel and aluminium products.
Chinese blamed US tariff plans for unrest in trade of
Chinese economy but hoped for solutions between
world’s two largest economies.US trade representatives
announced Euro-Area, Australia, South Korea, Canada
and Mexico to be exempted from forthcoming steel and
aluminium import taxes. BoE kept rates steady at 0.5%,
though two of its policymakers voted for immediate
rise in rates hinting that borrowing cost might rise in
month of May. The rising tension and trade way
scenario is positive trigger for gold.
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Page 1

Commodities Daily
Base Metals
Base metals were under pressure with copper sliding
to three-month lows as escalating concern about US
plans to levy duties on Chinese imports and the
possibility they could trigger a trade war hit sentiment.
This whole thing with tariffs is going to drag on and
create uncertainty. If it escalates in terms of
retaliation, we're quickly going to move into a slow
growth, high inflation and high interest rate
environment. Seasonally building inventories and
deteriorating chart signals pointed to more downside
near term. Sell-off in steel spilled into inputs nickel and
zinc, while aluminium sank to its weakest since
October 2016, hammered by concerns of rising China
supply now pollution-linked output curbs have expired
as well as U.S. trade tensions.
CFTC data
Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude oil
Nat gas
EUR/USD
DXY
Speculative
Longs
145659
-16188
27357
425918
139555
146380
847
Change WoW
-16153
-5356
-1419
-20105
25609
13408
968
INVENTORIES
Energy
Current
W/W Chg. Units
Energy
Crude prices rallied, pushed by Saudi plans for OPEC
and Russian led production curbs introduced in 2017
to be extended into 2019 in order to tighten market.
The driver for crude futures was statement by Saudi
Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who reported
that OPEC members will need to continue coordinating
with Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing
countries on supply curbs in 2019 to reduce global oil
inventories. Dollar came under pressure post the
announcement as the move would be to impose 25%
tariff on list of products that is due to be unveiled
within some days which supported crude prices. The
calendar spread of Brent has risen significantly
indicating bullish momentum for oil prices this year
due to rising tensions between United States and Iran
and OPEC discussions to tighten its inventory target.
For the day, Investors await data for U.S. rig counts to
get further clues on prices. Crude is expected to quote
with positive bias and in the range of $64 -$65.5.
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Crude oil
Gasoline
Distillate
Natural gas
Base Metals
LME
Aluminium
SHFE
w/w
LME
Copper
SHFE
w/w
LME
Nickel
SHFE
w/w
LME
Lead
SHFE
w/w
LME
Zinc
SHFE
w/w
Precious metals
GOLD ETF
Silver ETF
428.31
243.07
131.04
3.13
Current
1279025
934216
319500
296994
325836
41140
130650
33860
211250
157548
-2.62
-1.69
-2.02
-0.21
MBbl
MBbl
MBbl
TCF
Daily Chg. Units
-4000
87303
-2400
28899
24
-126
-225
1756
-100
3073
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
1767.5
19494
-0.01
-54.80
MT
MT
Page 2
MT- Metric Tonne, MBBL – Million Barrels, BCF – Billion Cubic Feet.

Commodities Daily
Agricultural Commodities
Mentha Oil settled up due to firm trend at spot market
on rising demand from consuming industries. Further
tight stocks position on fall in arrivals from the major
producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too
supported mentha oil prices uptrend. Farmers have
limited arrival of mentha in major spot markets of Uttar
Pradesh in anticipation of increase in prices. As per
sources demand is moderate from major domestic
consuming industries. However in recent years growth
in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has
influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per
sources India contributes around 80% to the total global
mentha oil production. Total global production stood at
around 48,000 tonnes out of which India produces
between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates
mentha oil production in India for crop year 2016-17 will
be around 38,000 tonnes. As per data global demand of
essential oil will increase in coming years. This will boost
mentha oil demand mainly from medicines health
products cosmetics as well as food and beverages
Mentha oil prices were up by as speculators raised bets
amid pick-up in demand from consuming industries in
the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position
on fall in supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh
weighed on mentha oil prices.
Chana ended positive in comparison to previous day.
Exports of Indian pulses are not growing despite a
decade old ban that was revoked n two steps last year.
The unit price of exported pulses mostly chana has
consistently raised from $0.84 per kg in 2013-14 to
$1.43 per kg in 2017-18, the highest in the last five
years. India Dall Mill Association has demanded a ban on
future trading as concerns over declining chana prices
incurred by small-time traders and farmers on account
of falling price.
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Commodity
Cardamom
Castor Seed
Chana
COCUDAKL
Cotton
CPO
Dhaniya
Guar Gum
Guar Seed
Jeera
Mentha Oil
R M Seed
Soyabean
Soyoil
Sugar
Turmeric
Wheat
Month
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Price
1056
4110
3678
1414
20160
645.1
5143
8998
4221
14840
1329
4018
3758
784.3
3261
6812
1708
%Chg.
-0.75%
-0.48%
0.44%
0.64%
-0.88%
-0.32%
1.26%
0.76%
0.96%
2.98%
4.00%
-0.52%
0.00%
-0.37%
-2.98%
0.00%
-2.40%
Commodity
Malaysian Palm Oil
US Soybean
US Soyoil
US Soymeal
ICE US Cotton
China Cotton
US Sugar
Expiry
Apr
May
May
May
May
May
Apr
Price
2430
1033
31.92
369
82.05
14965
12.77
% Chg.
-0.61%
0.32%
0.13%
0.27%
-0.12%
-0.40%
0.79%
Page 3

Commodities Daily
Level Playing Sheet
Call
% Chg in OI
0.0%
-5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-4.5%
0.0%
0.0%
Commodity
GOLD
GOLD
SILVER
SILVER
CRUDE
CRUDE
NAT GAS
COPPER
ZINC
LEAD
NICKEL
ALUMINIUM
Commodity
CARDAMOM
CASTOR SEED
CHANA
COCUDAKL
COTTON
CPO
DHANIYA
JEERA
GUAR SEED
GUAR GUM
MENTHA OIL
R M Seed
SOYBEAN
SOYOIL
TURMERIC
WHEAT
SUGAR
Exch.
MCX
Comex
MCX
Comex
MCX
Nymex
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
Exch.
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
OI
0
48
1
5
0
1
84
0
0
Volume
0
4
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
Close
30493
1327
38577
16.34
4201
64.18
171.1
439.0
209.5
153.8
856.2
133.8
Close
1,056
4,110
3,678
1,414
20,160
645
5,143
14,840
4,221
8,998
1,329
4,018
3,758
784
6,812
1,708
3,261
Premium
650.5
413
369.5
286.5
213.5
151.5
117
64.5
21.5
S2
30374
1319
38241
16.15
4153
63.05
168.5
429.8
205.2
150.8
829.7
132.3
S2
1,039
4,063
3,627
1,393
20,027
642
5,038
14,323
4,176
8,909
1,249
3,977
3,725
778
6,723
1,671
3,070
S1
30434
1323
38409
16.25
4177
63.61
169.8
434.4
207.4
152.3
842.9
133.0
S1
1,047
4,087
3,652
1,403
20,093
644
5,090
14,582
4,199
8,953
1,289
3,997
3,741
781
6,767
1,689
3,070
Gold Option
Monitor
Strike
29800
30000
30100
30200
30300
30400
30500
30600
30800
Pivot
30524
1329
38671
16.40
4218
64.57
171.9
440.3
210.1
154.8
862.5
134.5
Pivot
1,059
4,114
3,681
1,410
20,197
646
5,123
14,753
4,219
9,010
1,309
4,026
3,765
786
6,809
1,719
3,070
Put
Premium
36
13.5
21
38
64.5
70.5
96.5
215.5
372
R1
30584
1333
38839
16.49
4242
65.13
173.2
444.9
212.3
156.3
875.7
135.2
R1
1,067
4,138
3,706
1,421
20,263
647
5,175
15,012
4,242
9,054
1,349
4,046
3,781
789
6,853
1,737
3,070
R2
30674
1339
39101
16.64
4283
66.09
175.3
450.8
215.0
158.8
895.3
136.7
R2
1,079
4,165
3,735
1,428
20,367
649
5,208
15,183
4,262
9,111
1,369
4,075
3,805
793
6,895
1,767
3,070
Volume
0
39
0
0
0
4
4
0
0
Trend
Bullish
Strong
Strong
Flat
Bullish
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Trend
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Flat
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Strong
Flat
Flat
Strong
Bearish
Flat
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
OI
1
104
1
2
0
6
32
0
0
Conviction
High
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Conviction
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
% Chg in OI
0.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
50.0%
-5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
Intraday
Range
30404 - 30554
1321 - 1331
38325 - 38755
16.2 - 16.44
4165 - 4230
63 - 65
169 - 173
432 - 443
206 - 211
152 - 156
836 - 869
133 - 135
Intraday Range
1043 - 1063
4075 - 4126
3667 - 3721
1407 - 1424
20060 - 20230
645 - 648
5107 - 5192
14668 - 15098
4209 - 4252
8982 - 9083
1299 - 1359
3987 - 4036
3733 - 3773
780 - 787
6788 - 6874
1680 - 1728
3070-3070
Expiry
Apr
Apr
May
Apr
Apr
May
Mar
Apr
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Expiry
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Mar
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Page 4

Commodities Daily
Navneet Damani
Research Analyst(Commodities)
Commodity Disclosure & Disclaimer:
This report is intended for distribution to Retail Investors.
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered sResearch Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing
Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is
a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan
Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of
Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. One of the group companies of MOSL is Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. (MOCBPL) which is a registered member with MCX
and NCDEX in commodity segment. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
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Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records,
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1.
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document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
2.
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3.
This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
4.
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5.
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10.
Neither MOSL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document.
11.
The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is
not a guide for future performance.
12.
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13.
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14.
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15.
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16.
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17.
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Page 5