Sector
Sector Update | Financials
Update | 23 April 2018
Financials - NBFC
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MSME Finance sector in a sweet spot
Fastest growing segment within non-retail finance; NBFCs gaining share
We studied the ‘MSME Pulse’ report authored by SIDBI and Trans Union-CIBIL. Our key
takeaways:
Growth in micro-credit higher than other segments
Over the past two years (CY15-17), micro-credit (<INR10m) grew at a CAGR of 14%
compared to a CAGR of 11% for SME credit (INR10m-250m) and 8-9% for mid-and-
large-corporate finance. The faster growth in micro-credit was driven by a sharp
pickup in growth in CY17 – while large corporate credit remained muted, micro-
credit grew 21%.
Interestingly, within micro-credit, the “very small” credit
(<INR1m) grew 32% in CY17. This is rather counter-intuitive – while it was largely
expected that this segment would be most impacted in the aftermath of
demonetization, it actually witnessed the highest growth.
Share of LAP/MSME financing in
total loans among NBFCs under
coverage (%)
MASFIN
SCUF
CAFL
CIFC
IHFL
Repco
DHFL
PNBHF
LICHF
86.5
55.0
40.0
25.1
20.0
18.9
17.8
16.0
13.2
Asset quality stable in MSME finance; mid-large corporate most impacted
Interestingly, not only is the GNPL ratio lowest in the micro-credit segment, but
also the increase in the GNPL ratio over CY15-17 is the lowest.
For the micro and
SME credit segment, GNPL ratio increased by 80/140bp over the past two years. For
the mid and large corporate segment, it increased by 280/900bp. The latter was
driven by RBI’s asset quality review (AQR) in 4QFY16. Also, for the MSME finance
segment as a whole, the GNPL ratio for private banks has remained stable at 3.7%,
while that of state-owned banks and NBFCs has increased by 200bp. Also, among all
states, Rajasthan stands out in terms of asset quality (GNPL ratio of 3.5% v/s
average of ~10%).
State-owned banks dominant, but losing share
State-owned banks are the largest players in the MSME finance segment, with a
market share of 55% as of CY17. However, over the past two years, they have ceded
share to private sector banks and NBFCs. The share of private sector banks now
stands at 29% while that of NBFCs is at 10%. Also,
state-owned banks
overwhelmingly dominate the ‘new to credit’ borrower, especially in the sub-
INR1m ticket range, with a market share of 79%. In this segment, NBFCs have a
share of only 5% – we believe there is huge scope for NBFCs to gain market share.
This bodes well for small-ticket MSME-focused players like SCUF and MASFIN.
View
We remain constructive on the MSME finance segment, given the large untapped
opportunity and runway for growth. The fact that sub-INR1m ticket credit grew 32%
in CY17 is testimony to the fact that demand in this segment exists despite the
impact of demonetization. We prefer players that have been in this business for
many years and have seen multiple cycles. We have BUY on SCUF and MASFIN.
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526 |
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1542 |
Shubranshu Mishra
(Shubranshu.Mishra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1540
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
23 April 2018
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