BSE SENSEX
34,501
S&P CNX
10,571
Bharti Infratel
CMP: INR326
TP: INR346 (+6%)
Neutral
Bharti Infratel, Indus merger to produce a tower behemoth
25 April 2018
Update
| Sector:
Telecom
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
BHIN IN
1,896.7
482 / 317
-11/-33/-28
624.7
9.4
1727.0
46.5
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2018 2019E 2020E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
144.9 145.1 152.8
EBITDA
63.8
59.3
61.7
NP
25.2
25.3
26.2
EPS (INR)
13.6
13.7
14.2
EPS Gr. (%)
-8.1
0.4
3.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
91.7
88.0
84.7
RoE (%)
15.6
15.2
16.4
RoCE (%)
13.6
11.8
12.9
P/E (x)
24.1
24.1
23.2
P/BV (x)
3.6
3.7
3.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.8
9.5
9.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-18 Dec-17 Mar-17
Promoter
53.5
53.5
61.7
DII
2.3
2.3
1.7
FII
43.0
42.1
34.4
Others
1.2
2.1
2.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Bharti Infra.
Sensex - Rebased
490
440
390
340
290
Bharti Infratel (BHIN) announced that it will merge with Indus Towers. Post the
transaction, the merged entity is expected to be valued at an EV of INR926b. BHIN
and Vodafone would hold 37.2% and 29.4%, respectively, in the combined entity.
Other stakeholders Idea and Providence have an option to sell their 11.15% and
3.35% in Indus Towers for INR65b and INR19.6b, respectively.
Indus Towers’ acquisition value is at a 14% discount to BHIN. Moreover, BHIN could
benefit from an improved capital structure and RoCE, led by utilization of surplus
cash for acquiring Idea and Providence’s stake.
However, we see a risk of further pressure on BHIN’s EBITDA – beyond our estimate
of a 7% decline – in FY19 on the back of tenancy exits. Moreover, concerns about
excess industry supply remain.
Against this cautious backdrop, we maintain our Neutral rating. Our DCF-based target
price stands at INR346, implying EV/tenancy of INR2.7m
Merged entity to be valued at an EV of INR926b
BHIN announced that Indus Towers (wherein it holds a 42% stake) will be merged
with itself. The deal values Indus at an enterprise value of INR648b at the current
price, and at INR715b based on BHIN’s share swap value of INR363. Currently, BHIN
and Vodafone hold 42% each in Indus, while Idea and Providence hold 11.15% and
4.85%, respectively. Even as BHIN and Vodafone may continue holding their stakes
in the merged entity, Idea and Providence have the option to retain their stakes or
sell out at a 4% discount to the current price. Accordingly, we see three scenarios
under which the merger could be structured. Assuming Idea would sell its entire
stake and Providence sells a 3.35% stake, the merged entity should be valued at an
enterprise value of INR926b and at an equity value of INR870b (@ CMP of INR326),
as the cash will be utilized toward paying out INR65b and INR19.6b to Idea and
Providence, respectively. Consequently, BHIN and Vodafone would hold 37.2% and
29.4%, respectively, and Providence would hold 1.1% in the merged entity.
Indus deal at a 14% discount to current valuation
The deal values Indus at an EV/tower and EV/tenancy of INR5.2m and INR2.3m,
respectively, on FY18. This is at a 14% discount to BHIN’s current valuation.
Subsequently, BHIN’s EV/tower and EV/tenancy will decline by 7% to INR5.7m and
INR2.5m, respectively. The combined entity should operate 163,162 towers (~40%
market share) and 367,073 tenancies, with revenue and EBITDA of INR254b and
INR109b, respectively. Our implied EV/tenancy of INR2.7m implies a 10% upside to
our current TP of INR346.
Headwinds in the near term
We see multiple headwinds for the tower industry and BHIN over the next 4-6
quarters. (1) Management indicated that Vodafone-Idea merger may cut ~25,000
tenancies, which is 12% of the current tenancies. However, the figure could be
higher, considering Idea management’s guidance of a cut in 20% overlapping sites.
Aliasgar Shakir – Research analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel – Research analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1568
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.