HDFC Bank
BSE SENSEX
35,319
S&P CNX
10,742
9 May 2018
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR1,979
TP: INR2,400(+21%)
Buy
Well placed to capture emerging opportunities
Takeaways from the Annual Analyst Meet
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
HDFCB IN
2,563
2014 / 1534
-2/2/11
5,136
79.7
2780.0
79.1
We attended HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) annual analyst meet, wherein it showcased the
breadth of its top management and discussed the progress that different businesses are
making. Management, thus, highlighted the growth potential of different businesses and
further discussed succession planning, digital initiatives, competitive positioning,
subsidiary performance and the journey ahead. This note captures the detailed
takeaways from the meet, as well as our thoughts on the bank.
Key takeaways from session with Mr Aditya Puri – MD & CEO
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2018 2019E 2020E
Y/E Mar
NII
400.9 464.8 568.4
OP
326.2 391.6 487.3
NP
174.9 210.6 257.0
NIM (%)
4.4
4.2
4.3
EPS (INR)
67.8
79.3
94.5
EPS Gr. (%)
19.4
16.9
19.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
409.6 527.9 604.4
ABV/Sh. (INR)
385.9 500.0 570.6
RoE (%)
17.9
16.9
16.7
RoA (%)
1.8
1.8
1.8
Payout (%)
22.9
20.8
19.9
Valuations
P/E(X)
29.2
23.2
20.9
P/BV (X)
4.8
3.5
3.3
P/ABV (X)
5.1
3.7
3.5
Div. Yield (%)
0.8
0.9
0.9
Stock Performance (1-year)
HDFC Bank
Sensex - Rebased
2,100
1,950
1,800
1,650
1,500
Macro:
According to HDFCB, the INR would not depreciate much from here,
fiscal deficit would remain in control and GDP growth is healthy at 7.3-7.5%.
Capacity utilization levels have increased to ~76%, and the investment cycle
generally picks up around 80% utilization levels. There is no systemic risk in the
Indian banking system. Financialization of the economy will keep increasing
and a lot of the wealth under the system is getting more formal. This is
generating more opportunities for the banking system.
HDFCB expects demand to exceed supply in the next five years. The bank
continues to see strong growth opportunities as the credit market still remains
largely underpenetrated. However, the bank will not chase growth at the
expense of margins/risks.
The bank plans to launch online loan against mutual funds – money will get
disbursed electronically without any manual intervention.
The bank has substantial management depth up to three levels down, and
thus, there are no concerns about management bandwidth and succession at
any level in the organization.
Cost-income trajectory is down, and the bank expects to continue benefiting
from digitization and operating leverage.
HDFCB is not averse to project financing and is willing to fund viable projects.
Expansion in rural and suburban regions is paying off, and the bank sees strong
growth opportunities in these areas.
The bank is empowering the ground level staff to ensure faster product
delivery and improve customer service. Granularity of the business has been
increasing.
Agri is not an easy business to grow, but important to focus on. Waivers, at
times, bring about an adverse impact, but agri remains a profitable business to
remain engaged in.
Management succession planning is in place. The bank will start looking for
candidates 18 months in advance and will announce the name 12 months
before the retirement timeline. Candidate can be both external and internal.
HDB Financial
will rapidly gain scale and become the leading consumer finance
NBFC in the country. Disinvestment in the company still remains sometime
away (for more details, please refer page 3).
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415 |
Parth Gutka
(Parth.Gutka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1567
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.