Titan Company
BSE SENSEX
33,686
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,453
TTAN IN
887.8
875 / 13.0
1006 / 460
-3/19/85
1662.0
47.1
10 May 2018
4QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Retail
CMP: INR973
TP: INR1,150 (+18%)
Buy
Margin expands strongly led by Jewelry; more upbeat commentary
Titan’s 4QFY18 reported revenue (incl. other operating income) rose 13.3%
YoY
to IN41.1b (est. of INR40.4b). EBITDA grew 70.3% YoY to INR4.4b (est. of
INR3.6b) and recurring PAT rose 72.2% YoY to INR3.1b (est. of INR3.0b).
Consol. segmental performance:
a) Reported Jewelry sales were up 14% YoY to
INR33.6b, with segmental margin up 360bp YoY to 12.6%. b) Watches sales
declined 3% YoY to INR4.9b, with EBIT margin up 250bp YoY to 3.5%.
Gross margin expanded 110bp YoY to 29.4%,
while EBITDA margin inched up
350bp YoY to 10.6% (est. of 9.0%) in 4QFY18.
FY18 consol. performance:
Net sales were up 21.6%, EBITDA was up 42.3% and
PAT rose 39.9% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded 150bp to 10.2%. Jewelry sales
grew 24.3% to INR130b, largely in line with the 25% guidance at the beginning
of the year. Watches sales grew 3.6% YoY to INR21b, with growth appearing
muted due to the GST effect.
Concall highlights:
1)
Wedding and high-value diamond jewelry is now around
33% of sales.
2)
Golden Harvest Scheme was 14% of sales in FY17, which
increased to 17% in FY18 and management expects a further improvement.
Valuation view:
Management’s increasing confidence on Jewelry is reflected in
its revised strong guidance of 20% CAGR for the next five years, sharply
increased store expansion target of 40, and commentary about further margin
expansion because of operating leverage. Recent developments in the sector
are only strengthening the case for rapid growth of the Tanishq business. Our
EPS forecasts are up by 4.3%/5.8% for FY19/20. Stretched valuations are fully
deserved for a business that has perhaps the best top-line growth potential in
the large cap FMCG/retail space. Moreover, the improving margins outlook
drives our earnings growth expectations higher. Maintain
Buy
with a target
price of INR1,150 (INR1,090 earlier), based on 55x Mar’20E EPS (at a 30%
premium to three-year average P/E).
(INR Million)
FY18
2Q
3Q
34,731 42,748
29.6
8.3
30,750 38,524
3,981
4,224
50.6
21.2
11.5
9.9
310
349
145
109
446
213
3,972
3,979
1,189
1,159
29.9
29.1
2,783
2,820
64.6
21.0
FY17
4Q
41,072
13.3
36,718
4,355
70.3
10.6
360
167
185
4,013
893
22.3
3,120
72.2
130,567
17.3
119,012
11,555
32.4
8.8
1,105
377
705
10,777
2,760
25.6
8,017
12.8
FY18
158,403
21.3
142,194
16,209
40.3
10.2
1,314
529
1,127
15,492
4,279
27.6
11,213
39.9
FY18
4QE
40,384
17.7
36,753
3,631
33.4
9.0
242
75
308
3,622
589
16.3
3,033
49.5
Var.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018
2019E 2020E
161.2
197.3
239.0
Net Sales
16.4
21.0
26.1
EBITDA
11.0
14.7
18.5
PAT
12.6
16.6
20.9
EPS (INR)
39.5
31.7
25.9
Gr. (%)
64.0
67.1
BV/Sh (INR) 57.3
23.9
27.4
31.9
RoE (%)
24.6
28.0
32.7
RoCE (%)
77.2
58.6
46.6
P/E (x)
17.0
15.2
14.5
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Exp
EBITDA
EBITDA Growth %
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adjusted PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
28,026
4.3
25,157
2,869
43.8
10.2
263
88
134
2,652
468
17.7
2,184
44.1
FY17
2Q
3Q
26,799 39,484
1.0
16.2
24,157 35,998
2,643
3,486
44.4
24.0
9.9
8.8
278
289
120
79
107
166
2,351
3,283
660
952
28.1
29.0
1,691
2,331
15.6
3.1
4Q
36,258
51.6
33,700
2,557
22.5
7.1
275
90
298
2,491
680
27.3
1,811
-3.1
1Q
39,851
42.2
36,202
3,649
27.2
9.2
295
108
283
3,529
1,038
29.4
2,491
14.1
(%)
1.7
19.9
10.8
2.9
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.