Morning India: Value Migration - D igging deeper, exploring more themes

15 May 2018

Market snapshot

Equities - India

Chg .%

Sensex

35,557

0.1

Nifty-50

10,807

0.0

Nifty-M 100

19,275

-1.2

Equities-Global

Chg .%

S&P 500

2,730

0.1

Nasdaq

7,411

0.1

FTSE 100

7,711

-0.2

DAX

12,978

-0.2

Hang Seng

12,545

1.6

Nikkei 225

22,866

0.5

Commodities

Chg .%

Brent (US$/Bbl)

1.6

Gold ($/OZ)

1,314

-0.4

Cu (US$/MT)

6,856

-0.8

Almn (US$/MT)

2,316

1.7

Currency

Chg .%

USD/INR

67.5

0.3

USD/EUR

1.2

-0.1

USD/JPY

109.7

0.2

YIELD (%)

1MChg

10 Yrs G-Sec

7.8

0.10

10 Yrs AAA Corp

8.5

0.10

Flows (USD b)

14-May

MTD

FIIs

0.1

-0.8

DIIs

0.1

1.4

Volumes (INRb)

14-May

MTD*

Cash

305

337

F&O

4,044

6,375

Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg

YTD.%

4.4

2.6

-8.8

YTD.%

2.1

7.4

0.3

0.5

7.1

0.4

YTD.%

16.4

0.8

-4.9

2.7

YTD.%

5.7

-0.6

-2.7

YTDchg

0.5

0.6

YTD

1.2

5.1

YTD*

372

7,872

Today’s top research theme

Value Migration – Digging deeper, exploring more themes

Pace of migration accelerating in BFSI and Jewelry



"Value Migration" is defined as a flow of economic and shareholder value away

from obsolete business models to new, more effective designs that are better

able to satisfy customers' most important priorities.



Value Migration happens in three stages-Value Inflow, Stability and Value

Outflow. In our Theme Report on Value Migration published in January 2017,

we had highlighted 26 case studies in which value migration is either prevalent

or will drive changes in future.



In this sequel, we look at the progress/updates on some of the cases already

highlighted and also dwell on two interesting new themes of Value Migration

Information Technology - staring at Phase-3 of Value Migration? After basking

in glory of low cost-talent, we are now witnessing value outflow towards

models built on the combination of automation, cloud and digital technologies.



Green metamorphosis - Value Migration from Oil to Gas. In the last few years,

rising pollution has been at the forefront of the policy making and judicial

activism in India with the focus on increasing penetration of gas.



Consumer: Jewelry - massive Value Migration unfolding from unorganized to

organized space. Titan the only pan-national branded jewelry player is at the

forefront to capture this long-term opportunity. In addition to it, pace of Value

Migration is accelerating in BFSI space from PSU Banks to Private Banks.



Research covered

Key Highlights

Digging deeper, exploring more themes

April CPI higher than expected but not alarming enough

Impressive volume growth; superior execution, good monsoon

HUL

make the growth story even more compelling

Titan Company

A gem that’s getting even more lustrous

KEC International Results exceed expectations led by strong execution

Solar Industries

Results exceed expectations led by robust overseas performance

Blue Star

Margins miss our estimates, but exceed consensus

South Indian Bank Loan growth picks up; asset quality deteriorates marginally

Healthcare

Volumes remain the key, while prices continue to drag growth

Metals Weekly

Zinc and lead prices increase 3-4% WoW

Results Expectation BRIT | CROMPTON | ENDU | LPC | MRPL | PI | PNB

Cos/Sector

Value Migration

Ecoscope

Chart of the Day: Ecoscope – April CPI higher than expected but not alarming enough to prompt a hike rate

Retail inflation rises to 4.6% in April 2018

* Excluding F&B and F&L

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOSL

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

Cabinet reshuffle: Piyush Goyal

gets finance, Smriti Irani loses

I&B ministry

Railways and coal minister Piyush

Goyal will handle the finance and

corporate affairs portfolios while

finance minister Arun Jaitley, who

underwent a kidney transplant on

Monday, recuperates, Rashtrapati

Bhavan said in a press

communique…

The government on Monday initiated the process of removing top

bankers, including Allahabad Bank managing director Usha

Ananthasubramanian and two executive directors of Punjab National Bank

(PNB), charged by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in the

Rs12,636-crore fraud involving jewellers Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi.

The move is a part of the government’s broader efforts to clean up the

banking system…

Allahabad Bank CEO to be axed for involvement in PNB fraud case

RBI places deposit, lending

curbs on Allahabad Bank

State-owned Allahabad Bank on

Monday said the Reserve Bank of

India (RBI) has asked it to freeze

lending after its capital-to-risk

weighted assets ratio (CRAR) fell

below the mandatory 9% at the

end of March.…

Retail inflation surges to

4.58%, WPI at 4-month high in

April

The first month of the current

financial year has brought some

bad news on the inflation front

with both retail (Consumer Price

Index or CPI) and producer

(Wholesale Price Index or WPI)

inflation showing a surge raising

the possibility of a policy rate hike

by the Reserve Bank in the near

future...

IDBI directors Ravi, Karpe

step down

State-run lender IDBI Bank has

informed the stock exchanges

that two independent directors

— Ninad Karpe and S. Ravi —

have quit the board. In a filing

with the BSE, the bank said that

they had sent their resignation

letters last week…

Petrol, diesel prices hiked

after Karnataka elections

State-run oil marketing

companies on Monday raised

petrol and diesel prices by 17

paise and 21 paise per litre

respectively, after retail

automobile fuel prices remained

unchanged since 24 April…

Manipal further sweetens

offer to acquire Fortis

hospitals

The race to acquire the hospital

business of beleaguered Fortis

Healthcare Ltd took an

unexpected turn on Monday as

TPG-backed Manipal Hospitals

submitted a revised bid for the

hospital chain, even as the Sunil

Munjal-led group was planning

to do an open offer to facilitate

the smooth exit of small…

15 May 2018

Thematic | Value Migration

Value Migration

Value Migration 2.0: Digging deeper, exploring more themes

Pace of migration accelerating in BFSI and Jewelry



In our Theme Report on

Value Migration

published in January 2017, we had dwelt

upon the importance of staying with winning business models in ultra-disruptive

times. India is indeed witnessing a phase of heightened disruption over the last three

years, with transformational and game-changing reforms like GST, RERA, IBC

(Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolutions), and Demonetization, driving underlying

changes in the way businesses operate and create value for stakeholders.



To recap, along with various nitty-gritties of Value Migration, we had highlighted 26

case studies in our report, which touched upon cases where (a) Value Migration is

already prevalent and has left a trail of winners/losers, and (b) Value Migration can

drive changes in the ensuing decade. We had also discussed the disruptions caused by

unlisted players and consequent challenges they posed to the listed ones.



In this sequel, we look at the progress/updates on some of the cases already

highlighted and also dwell on two interesting new themes of Value Migration.

Recap: What is Value Migration?



Value Migration is defined by

Adrian Slywotzky,

author of the book “Value

Migration”, as a flow of economic and shareholder value away from obsolete

business models to new, more effective designs that are better able to satisfy

customers’ most important priorities. The framework tries to identify industries

where Value Migration is underway and can help pick potential winners early in

the cycle.

Value Migration happens in three stages: [A]

Value Inflow:

In this phase, a

company or an industry captures value from other industries or companies due

to superior value proposition. The market share and profit margins of the

company or industry expand. [B]

Stability:

In this phase, competitive equilibrium

is established. Growth rates moderate. [C]

Value Outflow:

Value starts to move

away towards companies or industries meeting evolving customer needs. In this

phase, market share declines, margins contract, and growth stops.

BFSI – pace of Value Migration accelerating

Value Migration from public sector (PSU) to private sector banks is one of the most

prominent themes underway today. While the thesis has been playing out right and

has many more legs to go, it is the pace of migration that has surprised us positively.

We believe while the corporate banking sector in India has been under tremendous

pressure over the past few years, the private sector banks are likely to emerge even

stronger, while PSU banks will continue to face challenges on capitalization and

growth. We further note that private sector banks have done a phenomenal job in

building their liability franchise (strong traction in CASA mix) using both digital

capabilities and rapidly expanding branch network. PSU banks’ market share loss has

accelerated and we expect the trend to continue. Overall, there is a long way to go

for PSU to private sector banks Value Migration and digitization will drive the trend

further, in our view.

15 May 2018

Information Technology – staring at Phase-3 of Value Migration?

For the best part of the last decade, the Indian IT services industry basked in the

glory of low-cost talent, offering services 40-60% cheaper, with admirable flexibility

to their global clients. It was the answer to large developed market clients’ need to

optimize their IT spending. Championed by local and MNC peers alike, the model

stabilized, and then, growth rates began to wane.

Fast forward to today’s era – clients’ spending pattern has moved to the duality of:

[1] optimizing IT spends on existing programs further by use of cloud, automation,

AI, RPA and SaaS technologies; and [2] investing these savings towards their digital

transformation.

As a result of the above, the pie of bread-and-butter services for the industry has

been directly hit, and the new services that provide growth opportunity are not

moving the needle as much, thanks to low base. Besides, the new models are

significantly deviant from status quo, requiring companies to embrace bold moves

such as cannibalizing existing streams of cash generation, resetting to a lower

profitability (at least in the interim) and actively chasing acquisitions.

In this context, we witness the three phases of Value Migration, starting from value

inflow benefiting the regime of low cost sourcing route to IT spending optimization

to value outflow towards models built on the combination of automation, cloud and

digital technologies.

Oil & Gas: Green metamorphosis – Value Migration from Oil to Gas

In the last few years, rising pollution has been at the forefront of the policy making

and judicial activism in India. The focus on increasing penetration of gas becomes all

the more important considering that in the latest study of the World Health

Organization (WHO), half of the 20 most polluted cities globally are Indian. Policy

initiatives in exploration and production (E&P) like Hydrocarbon Exploration

Licensing Policy (HELP), Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP), premium pricing for

gas production from difficult fields, and National Data Repository among others are

expected to boost domestic gas production by ~10% YoY for the next 3-4 years.

With enabling policies, increase in gas supply and improvement in pipeline

infrastructure, broadly, the whole gas sector is expected to benefit – producers,

importers, transmission companies and city gas distribution companies (CGDs).

Consumer: Jewelry – massive Value Migration unfolding; multiple tailwinds

conspire to augment the trend

Opportunity for branded jewelers in an era of demonetization/formalization of the

economy and Titan being the key beneficiary was one of the high-conviction themes

we had focused upon as a part of long term Value Migration opportunities. Since

then, additional growth drivers have emerged – GST implementation, which has

further tilted the balance in favor of organized trade, rigorous provisions under

PMLA, and credit squeeze for unorganized trade as fallout of the Nirav Modi scam.

This is over and above the initiatives undertaken by company – aggressive expansion

15 May 2018

plans, focus on wedding jewelry portfolio. Titan has already been witnessing healthy

market share expansion away from the unorganized trade and has delivered strong

performance over the last 18 months on revenue as well as profitability front. From

a longer-term perspective, the management has guided for strong ~20% five-year

revenue CAGR in its jewelry division. In our view, the Value Migration opportunity in

the jewelry industry remains immense, given the size of the industry and Titan, as

the only pan-national branded jewelry player, is at the forefront to capture this

long-term opportunity.

Synopsis of Value Migration case-studies

S.N. Industry

BFSI

O&G

CONSUMER - Jewelry

Value migration thesis

PSU Banks to Private Banks

Legacy models to Digital

Oil to Gas

Unorganized to Organized

Remarks

The pace of migration has accelerated

Entering Phase 3 of Value Migration

Policy thrust - multiple winners

Winners/Losers

HDFC BANK, IndusInd, KMB

Large-cap IT

IGL, Gujarat Gas, MGL

Source: Company, MOSL

Rapid market share gains for organized plays Titan

15 May 2018

COPE

April CPI higher than expected but not alarming enough to prompt a hike rate

MSP announcement in early June holds the key



14 May 2018

The Economy Observer



CPI inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.6% YoY in April 2018 from 4.3% in the previous month. The number was

higher than our estimate/market consensus of 4.4%.

Food inflation was unchanged at 2.8% YoY in April 2018 versus the previous month, but came in slightly higher than our

estimate of 2.7%. While most food items witnessed a pick-up in inflation, this was offset by a sharp fall in vegetables

inflation.

Core inflation surged to a 45-month high of 6% YoY in April from 5.2% in the previous month. The number was higher

than our estimate of 5.7%. Inflation in core services rose to a 27-month high of 5.2% YoY, while that in housing edged

up to 8.5% YoY.

The RBI's inflation forecast was 4.7%-5.1% for 1HFY19. Although the April reading is lower than the range, we expect

inflation to rise over the next two months to touch 5.4% in June, overshooting the RBI’s expectations. We believe that

this is not alarming enough for the RBI to hike rates. However, the MSP announcement for Kharif crops – likely in early

June – remains the key trigger for the MPC.



CPI inflation at three-month high in April:

After declining in the previous three

months, CPI-based inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.6% YoY in April

2018

(Exhibit 1).

The number was higher than our estimate and market

consensus of 4.4%. Higher food and core inflation led to higher-than-expected

inflation reading in the month.

Food inflation unchanged at 2.8%...:

Food inflation (weight in CPI: 39.1%) was

unchanged at 2.8% YoY in April 2018 versus the preceding month, but was

slightly higher than our estimate of 2.7%. This is the lowest reading in six

months. Among food items, inflation in fruits surged sharply to 9.7% YoY in April

from 5.7% in the preceding month. Inflation in cereals, pulses, oils & fats, meat

& fish and spices also picked up in the month. However, this was offset by a

sharp fall in vegetables inflation

(Exhibit 2).

…while core inflation touches 45-month high…:

Further, core inflation (all items

excluding ‘food & beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco and intoxicants’ and ‘fuel & light’)

surged to a 45-month high of 6% YoY in April 2018 (our estimate: 5.7%) from

5.2% in the preceding month. Core-core inflation (excluding petrol/diesel from

core inflation) also shot up to 6% from 5.4% in March. Inflation in the fuel &

light group fell to 5.2% YoY in April 2018 from 5.7% in the previous month.

…due to a surge in inflation in ‘core services’:

Further refinement of CPI items

shows that inflation in ‘core services’ rose to a 27-month high of 5.2% YoY in

April from 4.7% in March

(Exhibit 4).

Inflation in both housing and goods inched

up 20bp MoM to 8.5% and 3.9%, respectively.

The RBI's inflation forecast was 4.7%-5.1% for 1HFY19. Although the April

reading is lower than the range, we expect inflation to rise over the next two

months to touch 5.4% in June, overshooting the RBI’s expectations. We

believe that this is not alarming enough for the RBI to hike rates. However, the

MSP announcement for Kharif crops – likely in early June – remains the key

trigger for the MPC.

15 May 2018

Hindustan Unilever

BSE SENSEX

35,557

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,807

HUVR IN

2,163.9

3256.6.0 / 51.1

1522 / 975

3/9/36

1560.0

32.8

14 May 2018

4QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer

CMP: INR1,505

TP: INR1,805(+20%)



Buy

Impressive volume growth; superior execution, good monsoon make the

growth story even more compelling

HUVR’s 4QFY18 reported net sales grew 10.8% YoY to INR91b.

Domestic

comparable consumer business sales were up 16% YoY, with underlying

volume growth of 11% YoY (est. of +7%). EBITDA grew 24% YoY to INR20.5b

(est. of INR19.1b) and PAT (bei) rose 26% YoY to INR14.1b (est. of INR13b).

Gross margin expanded 150bp YoY to 52.6%. Other operating expenses as % of

sales were down 90bp YoY. Thus, EBITDA margin expanded 240bp YoY to

22.5%. Comparable margin expanded 160bp YoY.

FY18 performance:

Sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT grew 8%, 20% and 21%,

respectively. EBITDA margin expanded 210bp.

Concall highlights:

(1)

Demand is improving gradually – the trend is likely to

continue.

(2)

Naturals is growing at ~2.5x that of HUL average.

(3)

WIMI is

growing at 1.5x that of all-India average over the past three years.

Valuation view:

21% growth in PAT (bei) in FY18 was the highest since FY13,

and we believe EPS growth will sustain at similar levels over the next two years.

HUL’s superior volume growth outperformance – even compared to much

smaller players – is appreciable. Commodity inflation, unless it spirals out of

control, is likely to increasingly contribute to sales growth, and margin

trajectory is impressive and will be aided further by leverage arising from

strong sales growth. Four key trends are particularly relevant for HUL resulting

in an elevation in its earnings growth trajectory compared to the past – (i) its

rapidly improving adaptability to market requirements, (ii) its recognition of

Naturals as a key sub-segment across categories, (iii) continuing strong trend

toward premiumization and (d) extensive plans to employ technology. On a

target multiple of 51x Mar’20E EPS (15% premium to three-year average due to

significantly improving business fundamentals), we get a TP of INR1,805 (prior:

INR1,515). Maintain

Buy.

(INR Million)

4.0

82,130

6.4

40,220

41,910

51.0

16,510

12.2

20.1

1,080

830

16,200

4,360

26.9

11,180

7.6

11,830

0.0

85,290

4.9

40,840

44,450

52.1

18,660

14.1

21.9

1,140

1,130

18,590

5,630

30.3

12,920

14.6

12,830

FY18

4.0

11.0

83,090 85,900

5.9

11.5

39,290 39,050

43,800 46,850

52.7

54.5

16,820 16,800

19.7

23.9

20.2

19.6

1,150

1,210

2,040

1,520

17,650 17,060

5,250

3,590

29.7

21.0

12,360 11,980

14.2

30.2

12,760 13,260

11.0

90,970

10.8

43,140

47,830

52.6

20,480

24.0

22.5

1,280

1,000

20,160

6,010

29.8

14,090

26.0

13,510

Ind AS

FY17

FY18

0.8

6.0

318,887 345,250

2.7

8.3

156,835 162,320

162,052 182,930

50.8

53.0

60,463

72,760

5.1

20.3

19.0

21.1

3,958

4,780

219

210

5,254

5,690

61,541

73,460

19,058

20,480

31.0

27.9

42,474

51,350

3.2

20.9

44,893

52,360

Est.

Variance

4QE

7.0

89,864

1.2%

9.4

42,556

47,308

52.6

19,090

7.3%

15.6

21.2

1,111

850

18,732

7.6%

5,699

30.4

13,033

8.1%

16.6

13,033

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2018 2019E

Net Sales

339.3 387.6

EBITDA

72.8

87.4

PAT

53.0

62.7

EPS (INR)

24.5

29.0

Gr. (%)

24.7

18.3

BV/Sh (INR)

32.7

35.1

RoE (%)

78.1

85.5

RoCE (%)

100.2 112.4

P/E (x)

61.5

51.9

P/BV (x)

46.0

42.9

2020E

442.1

105.9



76.7

35.4



22.3

38.7

96.1

126.3



42.5

38.9

Estimate change

TP change

Rating change

Quarterly performance

Y/E March

Domestic volume growth (%)

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

COGS

Gross Profit

Margin %

EBITDA

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

Depreci a ti on

Interes t

Other Income

PBT

Ta x

Rate (%)

Adjusted PAT

YoY Change (%)

Reported Profit

4.0

81,270

3.6

39,555

41,715

51.3

16,347

8.1

20.1

933

1,076

16,431

5,411

32.9

11,277

6.1

11,727

FY17

-1.0

-4.0

78,427 77,060

1.4

-0.7

39,620 37,440

38,807 39,620

49.5

51.4

14,046 13,560

5.1

-5.2

17.9

17.6

945

1,000

2,528

820

15,580 13,330

4,807

4,480

30.9

33.6

10,818

9,199

9.3

-10.2

10,956 10,380

15 May 2018

11 May 2018

4QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods

Titan Company

Buy

BSE SENSEX

35,557

S&P CNX

10,807

CMP: INR921

TP: INR1,125(+22%)

A gem that’s getting even more lustrous

High earnings growth with strong visibility deserves premium valuations

We attended Titan’s (TTAN) Annual Investor Forum 2018. Key takeaways:

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

M.Cap. (INR b)

M.Cap. (USD b)

Avg Val ( INR m)

Free float (%)

Jewelry growth prospects improving

TTAN IN

887.8

1006 / 460

-11/11/68

817.7

12.6

1662.0

47.1



Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2018 2019E 2020E

Sales

161.2 197.3 239.0

EBITDA

16.4

21.0

26.1

Adj. PAT

11.0

14.4

18.2

Adj. EPS (INR)

12.6

16.2

20.5

EPS Gr. (%)

39.5

28.8

26.1

BV/Sh.(INR)

57.3

64.0

67.1

RoE (%)

23.9

26.7

31.2

RoCE (%)

24.6

27.3

31.9

P/E (x)

73.1

56.8

45.0

P/BV (x)

16.1

14.4

13.7

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Mar-18 Dec-17 Mar-17

52.9

53.1

Promoter

6.3

5.9

5.4

DII

20.7

21.3

21.1

FII

20.1

20.0

20.4

Others

FII Includes depository receipts

Stock Performance (1-year)

Titan Company

Sensex - Rebased

1,050

950

850

750

650

550

450



Management remained confident about the Jewelry segment growth prospects

and reiterated its recently revised growth guidance (expects 2.5x growth – 20%

CAGR – in the segment over FY18-23, as against the previous guidance of 2.5x

growth over FY17-22). The company confirmed the 25% Jewelry segment

growth target for FY19, exhibiting confidence about growing rapidly despite

the previous year’s strong performance (+25% in FY18). Jewelry growth is likely

to be muted this quarter because of an extremely high base (50%+ growth in

1QFY18), but the rest of the year is likely to be good enough to compensate for

that. Management also cited that the competitive advantage versus peers is

getting bigger over the past few quarters.

Management quantified its five key pillars of growth for the first time.

Wedding jewelry

sales proportion is likely to increase from 35% of jewelry

sales in FY18 to 50% by FY23.

High-value diamond jewelry

sales proportion is likely to increase from 30%

of diamond jewelry sales in FY18 to 50% in FY23. In these premium

categories, the company is targeting customers with annual income of

INR1-5m, a segment that the Central Board of Direct Taxes expects to grow

at a 23% CAGR over the next five years.

Golden Harvest:

It continues to be one of the key pillars.

Low-share markets:

TTAN has identified 15-20 cities in the country where

it has a less than national average market share. Market share in these 17

cities is expected to increase from ~4% to ~8% by FY23.

Middle India focus:

From 250 stores in 150 towns in FY18, TTAN is likely to

have 400 stores in 250 towns by FY23, which is quite remarkable

expansion, in our view.

Exchange sales:

Management also added a sixth pillar of growth, i.e., sale

of jewelry to customers coming for exchange of old jewelry. The

contribution of this segment has increased from 20% to 40% of sales over

the past 18 months, and it is likely to reach 50% by FY23. Higher proportion

of exchange sales also reduces the vulnerability to import curbs on gold

(similar to FY13). Such curbs are possible if the current account deficit

worsens drastically from the current impressively low levels.

In addition, new products are playing a big part in driving growth. Proportion of

new products has increased consistently every year to 30% of sales as of FY18,

and is likely to reach ~50% by FY23. Of 20% revenue CAGR over FY18-23E, SSSG

is likely to contribute 12-13%, which augurs well for profitability.

15 May 2018

Overall strategy continues to evolve



Managing Director Mr Bhaskar Bhat also highlighted a) the company’s efforts

toward moving to the next level of consumer understanding across businesses,

b) catering more specifically to Gen A (higher brand loyalty, higher ticket size

compared to more value conscious and bargain hunting millennial). These

customers also toggle between brick-and-mortar and online, and thus, there is a

need to build strong capability in both, (c) reaching 50 million customers by

FY23 across businesses, from ~20m in FY18, (d) targeting a much higher share of

the luxury market, wherein it expects to have huge learning through products

like Favre Leuba and also the Mont Blanc JV and (e) working toward a new

organization culture that needs to keep evolving as the customers do.

Adjusted for the GST impact, Watches segment grew in double-digits in FY18 (for

the first time in many years), with volume growth of 8%. EBIT margin of 13% also

staged a smart recovery. ‘Fast Track’ has been a strong driver of growth over the

past two years (grew by 11% in FY17 and by 14% in FY18). TTAN has also seen

success in the wearables market, and is now the third largest player in India in a

yet nascent market, which includes bands imported from China. The company is

spending disproportionately in digital advertising, eCommerce sales are growing

at over 90%, and large format stores are doing well with sales now exceeding

INR3b. New women-specific launches like ‘Titan Ceramic Edge’ and ‘We’ are doing

very well. Titan Raga’s digital-only range launched in association with designer

Masaba Gupta has received a good response. Management believes that while it

will be present in the digital space in wearables, the future of wearables devices in

India is in the analog space. TTAN is also launching smart watches under its

economy brand ‘Sonata’. The five pillars of growth in the watches segment over

the next few years are (a) technology, (b) increasing the number of customers, (c)

new brands, (d) continued focus on profitability and (e) growth.

As part of the strategic review of the eyewear business toward the latter part of

FY18, it was decided that customer acquisition will be a key focus area. The

company had 1.4m customers in eyewear and another 1m in sunglasses in FY18.

By FY23, it is targeting 10m customers per year. Growth in the eyewear business

has been decent over the past decade since inception, but same-store sales

average growth for this period was only ~6%, with a similar number in FY18 as

well. It is still perceived as a premium product. Instead of reducing prices, the

company will introduce products in the INR1,000-2,000 range (this was lacking

earlier) while retaining the focus on design, style and service levels. The

company has 500 stores, but is competing against largely mom and pop stores,

which are 30,000 in number across the country. Only 32% of people having

vision difficulties use remedial eyewear and only 30% of those buy these

products in any given year. With the help of Caratlane, the online jewelry

company that TTAN acquired last year, this division has spruced up its omni-

channel presence, has increased advertising, improved performance ratings and

bettered optometrist availability in stores. The backend has also been made

much stronger, enabling industry-first practices like same-day delivery and 30

minute delivery of lenses.

Watches business now appears on a strong footing



Now looking to democratize the eyewear business



15 May 2018

Valuation view



Management’s optimism about the Jewelry business is being reflected in its

revised strong guidance of 20% CAGR for the next five years, sharply increased

store expansion target of 40 in FY19, and commentary about further margin

expansion led by operating leverage. Recent developments in the sector are

only strengthening the case for further rapid growth of the Tanishq business.

High valuations are fully deserved for a business that has perhaps the best top-

line growth potential in the large-cap FMCG/retail space. Moreover, the

improving margins outlook drives our earnings growth expectations higher.

Maintain

Buy

with a target price of INR1,125, based on 55x March 2020E EPS

(30% premium to three-year average P/E).

15 May 2018

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,557

S&P CNX

10,807

KEC International

Blue star

Neutral

14 May 2018

Results Flash | Sector: Capital Goods

CMP: INR408



TP: INR390(-5%)

Results exceed expectations led by strong execution

Sales of INR36.6b (+29% YoY) were ahead of our estimate of INR32b.

EBITDA stood at INR3.7b (+23% YoY), with the margin of 10.1% coming in

below our estimate of 10.9%.

Interest cost of INR656m was lower than our estimate of INR703m, while

depreciation stood at INR275m v/s our estimate of INR440m.

Tax rate of 32% was lower than our estimate of 36.5%.

PAT of INR1.96b (+35% YoY) was ahead of our estimate of INR1.52b.

Conference Call Details

Date:

May 2018

Time:

10:00am IST

Dial-in details:

+91-22-6280 1213

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

FY18 FY19E

Y/E Mar

Net Sales

95.5 110.7

EBITDA

9.8

11.3

4.2

4.9

EPS (INR)

16.2

18.9

EPS Gr. (%)

36.6

16.7

BV/Sh. (INR)

74.6

89.6

RoE (%)

21.7

21.1

RoCE (%)

14.9

15.1

Div. Yield

0.7

0.8



FY20E

134.3

Valuation view:

13.8



The stock trades at 22/17x FY19/20E EPS of INR18.9/24.3. We have a

Neutral

6.2

rating on the stock with a target price of INR390, valuing the business at 16x

24.3

FY20E EPS.

28.3

108.9

22.3

16.2

1.0

Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Change (%)

Adj PAT

Change (%)

17,487

-6.9

1,496

6.3

8.6

291

720

535

226

42.2

309

83.2

309

83.2

FY17

FY18

FY17 FY18E

20,742 19,123 28,492 18,568 21,322 24,049 36,642 85,844 95,524

2.6

-7.2

11.3

6.2

2.8

25.8

28.6

0.8

11.3

1,853 1,818 3,011 1,763 2,158 2,441 3,699 8,179 9,793

22.5

8.8

29.2

17.9

16.5

34.3

22.8

20.4

19.7

8.9

9.5

10.6

9.5

10.1

10.2

10.1

9.5

10.3

310

298

408

272

279

272

275 1,297 1,262

596

583

637

631

572

607

656 2,536 2,514

114

123

126

289

387

1,003 1,006 2,081

958 1,365 1,686 2,894 4,634 6,404

352

380

625

329

471

568

930 1,587 2,241

35.1

37.8

30.1

34.3

34.5

33.7

32.2

34.2

35.0

650

626 1,455

630

894 1,118 1,963 3,048 4,163

131.0 139.0

90.5 103.5

37.4

78.5

34.9

59.2

36.6

650

626 1,455

630

894 1,118 1,963 3,048 4,163

131.0 139.0

90.5 103.5

37.4

78.5

34.9

59.2

36.6

(INR m)

MOSL

Var.

4Q Est Vs Est

31,585

16%

10.9

3,430

13.9

10.9

440

703

109

2,395

21%

874

36.5

1,522

29%

4.6

1,522

29%

4.6

15 May 2018

14 May 2018

4QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods

Solar Industries

Neutral

BSE SENSEX

35,557

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, INRm

Free float (%)

S&P CNX

10,807

SOIL IN

90.5

96.4/ 1.5

1232 / 797

-4/-10/14

42.0

26.9

CMP: INR1,065



TP: INR1,100 (+3%)

Results exceed expectations led by robust overseas performance

Operational performance ahead of expectations:

Consol. revenue rose 30%

YoY to INR5.8b (est. of INR5.0b) in 4QFY18. EBIDTA grew 28.5% YoY to INR1.2b

(est. of INR951m), with the EBIDTA margin of 20.5% (-30bps YoY) ahead of our

estimate of 19.1%. Adj. net profit rose 21.1% YoY to INR678m (est. of

INR547m). Performance beat was driven by a better-than-expected

performance from the overseas and exports business segment. For FY18,

revenue stood at INR19.2b (+21.3% YoY), operating profit at INR4.1b (+27.1%

YoY) and adj. PAT at INR2.3b (+17.3% YoY).

Overseas and exports segment drives revenue performance:

Consol. revenue

was driven by a robust performance of the overseas and export segment (+81%

YoY). On the domestic front, 4Q saw robust demand from the infra and housing

space (+29.3% YoY), whereas revenue from CIL remained muted (+3.2% YoY)

due to weak realization on account of soft AN prices (-5% YoY). Realization fell

(-2% YoY) in the bulk segments, as lower raw material cost (ammonium nitrate)

was passed on to consumers.

Defence business to witness traction in FY19:

Revenue from the Defence

business stood at INR187m (v/s INR29m in 4QFY17), driven by a pick-up in

execution of orders in hand. SOIL expects revenue contribution to reach INR2b

in FY19 from INR378m in FY18. Defence order backlog stands at INR2.6b, and

SOIL has participated in RFP for three new products tenders, which it expects

to materialize in FY19.

Maintain Neutral:

We maintain

Neutral

with a TP of INR1,100, valuing SOIL at

30x FY20E EPS (earnings CAGR of 23% over FY18-20E). The stock trades at

premium valuations (10-year average P/E multiple of 20x), given SOIL’s

presence in Defense (huge business opportunity here due to government

focus) and strong growth in the core business segment of Explosives, led by a

pick-up in mining activity.

FY17

3,174 4,215

-4.3

9.5

696

768

0.2

0.3

21.9

18.2

525

652

133

157

25.4

24.1

391

495

-5.2

12.1

391

495

6.1

20.3

FY18

4,084 4,657

28.7

10.5

872 1,043

25.4

35.9

21.4

22.4

128

137

106

699

826

216

249

30.9

30.2

483

577

23.3

16.4

483

577

23.3

16.4

FY17

FY18

4QE

4,975

14.1

951

10.6

19.1

148

803

256

31.9

547

9.3

547

9.3

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

2018E 2019E 2020E

Y/E Mar

Net Sales

19.2

23.1

28.5

EBITDA

4.1

4.9

6.2

PAT

1.3

1.7

2.3

EPS (INR)

24.4

28.9

36.8

Gr. (%)

18.2

18.6

27.4

BV/Sh (INR)

119.8 142.9 172.3

RoE (%)

21.9

22.0

23.4

RoCE (%)

23.9

25.3

27.3

P/E (x)

43.5

36.7

28.8

P/BV (x)

8.9

7.4

6.2



Estimate change

TP change

Rating change



Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Change (%)

Adj PAT

Change (%)

4,030

4.8

868

20.7

21.5

738

237

32.1

501

9.6

471

13.9

(INR m)

4,421

7.6

919

6.9

20.8

101

799

240

30.0

560

22.6

560

29.2

4,667

15.8

1,010

16.4

21.6

125

860

261

30.4

599

19.5

548

16.3

5,753 15,800 19,161

30.1

9.1

21.3

1,181 3,239 4,116

28.5

6.5

27.1

20.5

21.5

123

387

513

269

327

132

121

1,012 2,715 3,396

334

767 1,061

33.0

28.3

31.2

678 1,947 2,336

21.1

3.6

4.5

678 1,947 2,285

21.1

17.3

Var.

Vs Est

15.6

24.2

26.1

23.9

15 May 2018

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,557

S&P CNX

10,807

14 May 2018

Results Flash | Sector: Capital Goods

Blue star

Neutral

CMP: INR767



TP: INR875(13%)

Margins miss our estimates, but exceed consensus

Sales of INR14.8b (+8% YoY) were in line with our estimate of INR15b

(consensus: INR15.2b). Electro Mechanical projects sales were up 7% (~11% on

LTL basis) to INR7.3b, while Unitary cooling segment sales grew 7% YoY to

INR6.92b (up ~18-20% on LTL basis). UCP segment sales were strong in 4QFY18,

despite channel filling in 3QFY18 due to the implementation of new energy

rating norms.

Gross margin expanded 200bp YoY to 30.7%.

EBITDA rose 23% YoY to INR927m, with the margin at 6.3% (+80bp YoY), below

our estimate of 7.1% (consensus: 6%). EBIT margin in EMP segment stood at

5.6% (+90bp YoY) and in UCP segment at 9.9% (+120bp YoY). Unallocated

expenses stood at INR406m (+12% YoY, +41% QoQ on likely higher

advertisement spend on water purifiers during the quarter).

Other income stood at INR13m v/s our estimate of INR38m. Tax rate was 29%

v/s our estimate of 30%.

PAT of INR460m (+24% YoY) missed our estimate of INR602m (Consensus:

INR440m).

Conference Call Details

Date:

May 2018

Time:

11:00am IST

Dial-in details:

+91-22-6280 1102

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

FY18 FY19E

Y/E Mar

47.5

56.3

Net Sales

2.9

3.9

EBITDA

1.4

2.1

15.1

22.4

EPS (INR)

17.0

48.6

EPS Gr. (%)

87.0

97.3

BV/Sh. (INR)

18.1

24.3

RoE (%)

15.2

19.8

RoCE (%)

Div. Yield

1.3



FY20E



65.1

4.8

2.9

30.1

34.5

111.2



28.9

24.6



1.8

Valuation view:



The stock trades at 34/25x FY19/20E EPS of INR22.4/30.1. We have a

Neutral

rating on the stock with an SOTP-based price target of INR875 (UCP business at

30x FY20E EPS, MEP at 15x, and professional electronics at 15x).

(INR m)

FY18

Var.

4QE Vs Est

14,977

-1

8.9

1,069

-13

41.4

7.1

153

858

-24

261

30.4

597

56.8

602

61.8

-22

-24

Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Reported PAT

(before MI and share of associates)

Change (%)

Adj PAT

Change (%)

12,117

18.8

791

5.1

6.5

135

649

145

22.3

504

35.7

514

38.3

FY17

FY18

8,911 9,224 13,731 14,611 8,390 9,835 14,784

6.2 17.1

17.6 20.6

-5.8

6.6

7.7

422

386

756

903

492

535

927

-4.6

9.5

25.6 14.1 16.6

38.8

22.7

4.7

4.2

5.5

6.2

5.9

5.4

6.3

150

155

166

125

158

172

183

114

107

266

157

514

766

288

303

650

133

183

186

27.6

9.7

25.9 23.9 29.3

30.7

28.5

193

-1.3

200

-4.6

142

-10.6

145

-7.0

381

-2.5

372

-6.5

583

15.7

585

13.8

204

5.5

208

4.0

210

48.3

188

29.7

465

22.1

460

23.6

FY17

FY18E

43,983 47,502

15.3

8.0

2,355 2,857

2.0

21.3

5.4

6.0

606

638

378

287

215

1,586 1,955

367

546

23.1

27.9

1,231

5.5

1,231

5.5

1,493

17.0

1,440

17.0

15 May 2018

RESULTS

FLASH

BSE SENSEX

35,557

S&P CNX

10,807

South Indian Bank

TP:INR38

Buy

14 May 2018

Results Flash | Sector: Capital Goods

CMP: INR26



Loan growth picks up; asset quality deteriorates marginally

Conference Call Details

Date:

15 May, 2018

Time:

11:00am IST

Dial-in details:

+91-22-6280 1360



Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

2018 2019E

NII

19.7

23.1

14.8

17.4

3.3

5.9

NIM (%)

2.8

2.9

EPS (INR)

1.9

3.3

BV/Sh. (INR)

28.2

30.0

ABV/Sh.

(INR)

22.8

25.4

RoE (%)

6.6

10.9

RoA (%)

0.4

0.7

P/E(X)

14.3

8.1

P/BV (X)

0.9

P/ABV (X)

1.2

1.0

2020E

28.4

22.3

8.9

3.2

4.9

34.1

30.3

15.0

0.9

5.4

0.8

0.9



SIB’s reported PAT was flattish QoQ (-1%), but grew 51% YoY off a relatively

low base. PPoP declined 6% QoQ, led by a 6% QoQ increase in opex with

sequentially flat total income. Provisions at INR1.49b (1.1% annualized credit

cost) were below expected, leading to an 815bp QoQ decline in PCR to 41.2%.

The bank utilized RBI’s dispensation to spread MTM losses and provided

INR129.6m, leaving INR344m to be provided over the next three quarters

NII grew -3%/+12% QoQ/YoY even as advances recorded 5.7%/17.6% YoY

growth, as the NIM contracted 15bp QoQ to 2.73% led by a 14bp sequential

decline in reported spreads. Opex grew 6%/22% QoQ/YoY (the bank utilized

RBI’s dispensation to spread out gratuity provisions, leaving INR204.5m to be

further provided). CI ratio increased to 53.7% from 50.6% in 3QFY18.

Loan growth of 5.7%/17.6% QoQ/YoY was led by robust growth in retail and

agri (+19% YoY each), while corporate book grew 14% YoY, in line with the

bank’s retail-focused strategy. Corporate book has decreased to 37% of

advances from 38% a year ago.

Slippages were elevated at INR6.14b (INR2.58b in 3QFY18), of which INR1.9b

was from restructured book (roads). Slippages declined in retail (0.18% v/s

0.38% in 3Q), but increased in agri (0.71% v/s 0.18% in 3Q) and SME (0.3% vs

0.18% in 3Q). Recoveries, upgrades and write-offs came in at INR4.08b.

Absolute GNPA increased 11.6% QoQ to INR19.8b (3.59%, +19bp QoQ), while

NNPA rose 16.9% QoQ to INR14.2b (2.6%, +25bp), with calculated PCR

declining 326bp QoQ to 28.5%. Total net stressed loans at INR14.7b rose

marginally QoQ (INR14.6b in 3Q), but decreased to 2.7% of loans in percentage

terms (2.8% in 3Q).

Other highlights:

a) CASA ratio stood at 23.8% (-110bp QoQ). b) 78% of

corporate book is now investment grade (74% in 3Q).

Valuation and view:

Management is focused on building a low-ticket loan book

with steady balance sheet clean-up, which will help asset quality improve

substantially. We believe the asset quality stress is largely behind us and await

clarity on future credit costs. We will revisit our estimates post earnings call.

15 May 2018

Sector Update | 15 May 2018

Healthcare

Performance of top companies:

April 2018)

Company

IPM

Sun Pharma

Abbott India

Cipla

Zydus Cadila

Mankind

Alkem

Lupin

Torrent Pharma

Pfizer

Glenmark Pharma

Sanofi

Dr Reddy Labs

GSK Pharma

Alembic Pharma

Ipca Labs

Natco

Ajanta Pharma

Merck

Biocon

MAT

(%)

5.8

5.6

9.0

4.6

5.9

7.1

6.2

10.7

4.8

(4.4)

8.3

8.7

6.3

6.9

(0.8)

(5.9)

0.6

7.7

5.0

10.6

Apr-

(%)

7.8

5.5

13.8

4.6

4.7

13.2

15.7

9.5

2.4

12.8

6.6

10.1

2.5

7.7

5.5

(15.0)

10.8

8.0

3.6



Volumes remain the key, while prices continue to drag growth



Lupin, Abbott and Alkem witness highest YoY growth for the quarter



Indian pharmaceutical market's (IPM) secondary sales grew 7.8% YoY in April

2018 and 8.2% YoY during the period February-April 2018. Since July 2017, the

momentum in growth has been largely due to volumes, followed by new

launches. While volume growth was 6.8% YoY, new launches aided 2.5% YoY

growth during the quarter ended April 2018.

Pricing continued to be under pressure, with 1.1% YoY decline in the quarter

ended April 2018. Prices have been in contraction mode for 12 months now.

On moving annual total (MAT) basis, YoY growth was stable at 5.8% during the

12 months ended April as against 5.7% in the 12 months ended March 2018.

Partly on low base of past year, Lupin reported the highest growth in April 2018

(15.7% YoY), followed by Abbott India (+13.8%), Alkem (+13.2%) and Dr Reddy’s

(+10%). Glenmark (+13%), Ajanta Pharma (+11%), and Torrent Pharma (+9.5%)

outperformed IPM in April.

Despite YoY fall of 23.1% during the three months ended April 2017, Natco

Pharma’s secondary sales declined 15% YoY during the three months ended

April 2018. 60% of the reported companies underperformed IPM growth in April

on 12M basis.

Amongst therapies, which form 70% of IPM, Respiratory (7.7% of IPM)

maintained its strong growth trajectory for the month (+16.1% YoY), followed by

Anti-diabetic (+10.3%; 9.2% of IPM) and Cardiac (+9.7%; 12.2% of IPM).

Ophthal (1.9% of IPM) and Vaccines (1.8% of IPM) were the only therapies that

reported decline of 0.7% and 3.6%, respectively in April 2018.

In value terms, secondary sales grew 5% YoY for DPCO-listed products and 8.2%

YoY for non-DPCO products in April 2018. Volumes grew 6.8% YoY for DPCO-

listed products and 6.2% YoY for non-DPCO products in April.

FDC-banned drugs (~2% of IPM) grew ~15% in April, while non-banned drugs

grew 7.9% YoY. Secondary sales for Indian companies increased 7.5% YoY, while

those of MNCs grew 9.1% YoY in April.

Respiratory, Hormones and Anti-diabetic lead among therapies



DPCO v/s non-DPCO market (April 2018)



FDC ban impact (April 2018)



Volumes continue to grow, however price decline restricts growth

Volume Growth (%)

9.7

7.6

4.8

3.6

1.3

3.3

3.2

1.1

3M-Apr-17

3.1

2.8

0.6

-0.3

3M-Jul 17

3.6

2.9

2.6

-1.9

3M-Oct-17

Price Growth (%)

New Product Growth (%)

8.4

6.9

2.8

-1.3

3M-Jan-18

Total Growth (%)

8.2

6.8

2.5

-1.1

3M-Apr-18

Source: AIOCD, MOSL

3M-Jan 17

15 May 2018

Metals Weekly

Zinc and lead prices increase 3-4% WoW



14 May 2018

Update



Indian steel: Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were down ~1% WoW. Sponge iron prices were down ~1%

WoW, while domestic scrap prices declined ~6% WoW. Domestic iron ore prices were unchanged. Pellet prices

were marginally higher. Domestic HRC prices were unchanged, but import and export offers were marginally

lower.

Raw materials prices inch up: Iron ore prices (China cfr) were up ~1% WoW. Thermal coal prices were also up

~1% WoW. Coking coal prices were up ~3% WoW. China's pellet import prices were down ~1% WoW. Chinese

graphite electrode prices were lower WoW.

Europe: HRC prices were unchanged. CIS HRC export prices were marginally lower WoW. Rotterdam scrap

prices were up ~2% WoW.

China prices inched up: Chinese local HRC prices were up ~1% WoW, while rebar prices were up ~2% WoW.

Export rebar prices were up ~1% WoW, but HRC prices were down ~1% WoW.

Base metals mixed trend: Aluminum (cash LME) prices were down ~2% WoW. Alumina prices were down

~12% WoW. Copper (cash LME) prices were up ~1% WoW. Zinc was up ~4% WoW, while lead rose ~3% WoW.

Brent crude prices were up ~3% WoW.

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Consumer

Britannia Industries

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

BRIT IN

120.0

611 / 9

5121 / 3320

5 / 11 / 39



CMP: INR5,093 TP: INR6,180 (+21%)



Buy

Financial Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E March

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

EBITDA

Adj. PAT

Adj. EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh.(INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div. Yield (%)

69.1

22.7

51.1

0.5

60.5

18.7

41.5

0.6

48.5

16.1

33.3

1.0

38.7

15.0

26.5

1.8

89.6

11.9

8.8

73.7

7.3

36.9

31.1

32.7

99.0 118.6 142.6

14.5

10.1

14.3

33.9

28.9

35.0

18.1

12.6

24.8

35.8

30.9

50.0

22.6

15.8

25.1

40.1

35.0

70.0



84.2 105.1 131.5

224.7 271.7 315.8 340.3

We expect Britannia’s (BRIT) sales to grow 14.9% YoY to INR25.8b,

with base business volumes growing 12% on a favorable base of

2% volume growth.

Wheat and sugar are down YoY. Gross margins are likely to

expand 60bp YoY to 38.6% in 4QFY18.

We expect 170bp YoY expansion in operating margin to 15.4%.

Estimate 29.3% EBITDA growth and 28.3% adj. PAT growth for the

quarter.

The stock trades at 48.5x/38.7x FY19E/20E EPS of

INR105.1/INR131.5; maintain Buy. Britannia is one of our top

picks in the tier-II consumer space.

Key issues to watch for



Pace of rural recovery.



Outlook for raw materials.



Update on dairy business.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Base business volume growth (%)

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

COGS

Gross Profit

Margins (%)

Other Operating Exp

% of Sales

Total Exp

EBITDA

Margins (%)

YoY Growth (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Adjusted PAT

YoY Change (%)

10.0

21,063

8.5

12,879

8,184

38.9

5,367

25.5

18,246

2,817

13.4

3.5

279

739

3,263

1,071

32.8

2,192

13.2

FY17

10.0

23,612

11.0

14,902

8,709

36.9

5,578

23.6

20,481

3,131

13.3

2.0

289

670

3,496

1,156

33.1

2,340

5.8

2.0

22,648

5.6

14,190

8,458

37.3

5,487

24.2

19,678

2,970

13.1

0.9

303

544

3,201

997

31.1

2,204

4.6

2.0

22,444

5.2

13,915

8,528

38.0

5,448

24.3

19,363

3,081

13.7

6.1

322

335

3,081

973

31.6

2,108

5.9

2.0

22,248

5.6

13,873

8,375

37.6

5,479

24.6

19,352

2,896

13.0

2.8

332

741

3,293

1,133

34.4

2,160

-1.5

FY18

5.0

25,365

7.4

15,840

9,525

37.6

5,836

23.0

21,676

3,689

14.5

17.8

336

596

3,934

1,326

33.7

2,609

11.5

FY17

11.0

25,583

13.0

15,745

9,838

38.5

5,946

23.2

21,691

3,892

15.2

31.0

329

451

3,989

1,354

33.9

2,635

19.6

4QE

12.0

25,799

14.9

15,849

9,950

38.6

5,967

23.1

21,816

3,983

15.4

29.3

402

518

4,097

1,394

34.0

2,703

28.3

6.0

89,623

7.4

55,887

33,736

37.6

21,872

24.4

77,759

11,864

13.2

-5.1

1,193

2,424

13,040

4,197

32.2

8,843

7.3

FY18E

7.5

98,996

10.5

61,307

37,689

38.1

23,228

23.5

84,535

14,461

14.6

21.9

1,399

2,306

15,313

5,206

34.0

10,107

14.3

E: MOSL Estimates

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Goods

Crompton

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

CROMPTON IN

626.8

145 / 2

295 / 200

1 / 0 / -9

CMP: INR231



TP: INR305 (+32%)

Buy

Financial Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E March

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net Sales

EBITDA

Adj. PAT

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div Yield (%)

* Consolidated

49.6

27.0

30.8

0.7

45.5

19.9

28.3

0.7

35.8

16.3

23.0

1.4

30.3

13.4

20.0

1.7

39.8

4.9

2.9

4.7

146.1

8.6

76.4

32.5

32.7

41.4

5.3

3.2

5.1

8.9

11.7

50.2

28.4

33.0

46.6

6.4

4.1

6.5

27.1

14.3

49.9

30.8

50.0

52.6

7.3

4.8

7.7

18.4

17.3

48.5

34.5

50.0

We expect sales to register growth of 8% YoY, driven by 16%

growth in the lighting segment.

We expect operating profit of INR1.6b in 3QFY18, an improvement

of 16% YoY, and 90bp expansion in EBITDA margin to 13.8%.

Net profit is expected to be INR1b in 4QFY18 as against INR885m in

4QFY17, implying a growth of 20.7%. Maintain

Buy.

Key issues to watch



Details of segmental sales, as CROMPTON intends to improve

sales of its premium category products.



Ad spends incurred by the company during the quarter, as

CROMPTON intends to position itself as an electrical consumer

durables brand as against its current positioning as a fans brand.

Crompton: Quarterly Estimates (Standalone)

Y/E March

Sales

Change (%)

EBITDA

Change (%)

As of % Sales

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Effective Tax Rate (%)

Adjusted PAT

Change (%)

Reported PAT

Change (%)

10,962

1,573

14.4

180

1,400

465

33.2

935

FY17

8,737

8,792

8.5

1,012

972

17.4

11.6

11.1

161

162

865

834

286

290

33.1

34.8

579

544

28.3

574

544

32.0

10,762

7.4

1,386

9.0

12.9

153

1,273

388

30.5

885

16.6

864

29.8

10,554

-3.7

1,294

-17.8

12.3

162

1,198

395

33.0

802

(14.2)

802

(14.2)

FY18

9,597

9,382

9.8

6.7

1,207

1,165

19.3

19.8

12.6

12.4

157

158

1,054

1,040

346

345

32.8

33.2

708

695

22.3

27.9

708

695

23.3

27.9

FY17

4QE

11,650

8.3

1,608

16.1

13.8

153

1,481

437

29.5

1,043

17.9

1,043

20.7

39,759

119.5

4,902

134.0

12.3

110

655

195

4,331

1,399

32.3

2,932

138.7

2,907

166.9

FY18

41,438

4.2

5,274

7.6

12.7

128

686

256

4,716

1,524

32.3

3,193

8.9

3,193

9.8

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Automobiles

Endurance Technologies

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)

ENDU IN

140.7

178 / 3

1422 / 767

-4 / 23 / 52



CMP: INR1,263 TP: INR1,531(+21%)



Buy

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E March

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

EBITDA

Adj EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

53.8

10.3

23.9

45.3

8.7

20.2

33.0

7.2

16.1

24.8

6.0

12.7

55.9

7.6

3.3

23.5

9.9

20.8

15.6

64.2

9.0

3.9

27.9

18.8

20.8

17.4

73.3

11.1

5.4

38.2

37.0

23.8

21.1

86.0

13.8

7.2

51.0

33.5

26.4

24.5



122.9 145.7 175.7 211.3

We expect 21.2% YoY growth (5.8% QoQ) in consolidated revenue

to INR16.7b, led by strong performance in domestic as well as

exports segments.

Consolidated EBITDA is expected to grow 21.6% YoY (3.6% QoQ),

led by healthy growth in the operating performance of both

Indian and European operations.

EBITDA margin is likely to remain flat YoY (-30bp QoQ) at 13.8%

mainly due to RM cost inflation.

We expect PAT to grow 20% YoY (+4.7% QoQ) to INR1b.

The stock trades at 33x FY19E EPS and 24.8x FY20 EPS. Maintain

Buy.

Key issues to watch for



Update on supplies to HMSI and Hero MotoCorp.



Update on new products in India.



EU business: Level of ramp-up at new plant in Germany.

Consolidated - Quarterly

Y/E March

INR m

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

RM Cost (% of sales)

Staff Cost (% of sales)

Other Exp. (% of sales)

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

Exceptional Item

Rep. PBT

Eff. Tax Rate (%)

Adj. PAT

YoY Change (%)

14,402

13.3

58.4

9.8

18.9

1,865

13.0

684

104

1,166

24.5

880

15.2

FY17

14,482 13,193

7.5

2.3

57.8

57.0

8.9

10.5

19.4

19.1

2,008

1,773

13.9

13.4

699

741

1,281

1,014

30.3

26.7

893

743

14.8

13.5

13,803

4.8

57.4

9.9

18.9

1,898

13.8

781

119

1,186

29.6

835

3.3

15,503

7.6

59.0

9.5

17.6

2,136

13.8

742

1,397

30.9

965

9.7

FY18

16,204 15,809

11.9

19.8

59.3

57.4

8.6

9.3

18.0

19.2

2,292

2,229

14.1

768

798

269

1,517

1,199

34.3

34.8

997

957

11.6

28.8

FY17

4QE

16,723

21.2

58.0

9.0

19.2

2,309

13.8

804

1,516

33.9

1,002

20.0

55,880

6.8

57.7

9.8

19.0

7,555

13.5

2,905

322

319

4,646

28.9

3,303

9.9

(INR m)

FY18E

64,240

15.0

58.4

9.1

18.5

8,965

14.0

3,113

233

278

269

5,629

33.4

3,746

18.8

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Healthcare

Lupin

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

LPC IN

451.6

356 / 5

1465 / 727

0 / -29 / -57



CMP: INR789



TP: INR940 (+19%)

Buy

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E MARCH

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

EBITDA

EPS (INR)

EPS Gro. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

D. Yield (%)

13.9

2.6

9.2

1.1

25.4

2.5

13.0

1.1

19.6

2.3

10.6

1.1

14.6

2.0

8.2

1.1

174.9

44.9

25.6

56.6

12.4

298.9

20.9

13.3

157.8

30.6

14.0

31.0

-45.2

318.6

10.1

6.8

179.6

36.8

18.2

40.2

29.5

348.3

12.1

8.4

208.2

46.4

24.4

54.1

34.6

391.9

14.6

10.4



We expect Lupin's (LPC) 4QFY18 revenue to decline ~6% YoY to

IN39.8b, mainly due to a decline in the US business by ~26% YoY

to INR14b.

India business is expected to exhibit robust growth of ~27% YoY

to INR11.1b, while Japan sales are expected to improve 17.7%

YoY to INR5.4b in 4QFY18, aided by currency tailwinds.

EBITDA is estimated to decline ~32% YoY to INR7.5b, as margins

are expected to come down by ~710bp to 18.9%.

Reported PAT is likely to decline 45% YoY to IN3.3b due to

decrease in EBITDA margin.

LPC has invested ~INR60b toward R&D over FY16-18E (much

higher than what it invested in a decade prior to that). GMP

compliance is key to monetize this investment. Although the

stock faces near-term pressure, key approvals in the US and

resolution of the WL status (expected in 12 months) will help

create value in 12-18 months. We maintain Buy with a TP of

INR940 @ 20x 1HFY20E PER.

Outlook on US business for FY19E and ANDA launches.

Outlook on future ANDA launches and Gavis integration.

Update on warning letter for Goa and Indore facility.

Outlook on inorganic growth initiatives.

Key issues to watch out



Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Minority Interest

Reported PAT

Recurring PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

44,677

41.6

31,596

13,080

29.3

2,027

320

826

11,560

2,734

23.7

8,819

8,820

55.1

19.7

FY17

42,905 44,828

28.9

26.1

32,624 32,670

10,281 12,158

24.0

27.1

2,112

2,309

263

459

271

1,036

8,177 10,426

1,589

4,095

19.4

39.3

6,580

6,307

6,622

6,331

58.0

19.5

15.4

14.1

42,533

2.0

31,481

11,052

26.0

2,674

406

453

8,425

1,367

16.2

-16

7,074

6,069

-18.9

14.3

38,696

-13.4

31,012

7,684

19.9

2,605

439

320

4,959

1,368

27.6

-12

3,603

3,581

-59.4

9.3

FY18E

39,520

39,756

-7.9

-11.3

30,989

32,873

8,531

6,883

21.6

17.3

2,722

2,804

479

540

740

284

6,070

3,824

1,541

1,608

25.4

42.0

4,511

2,211

4,550

2,577

-30.8

-59.3

11.5

6.5

4QE

39,826

-6.4

32,311

7,515

18.9

2,796

526

306

4,499

1,096

24.4

3,330

-45.1

8.4

(INR Million)

FY17

174,943

23.1

130,012

44,931

25.7

9,122

1,525

1,065

35,349

9,785

27.7

25,492

12.3

14.6

FY18E

157,798

-9.8

127,185

30,613

19.4

10,926

1,984

1,650

19,352

5,612

29.0

13,655

-46.4

8.7

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Oil & Gas

MRPL

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

MRPL IN

1752.7

196 / 3

146 / 106

-3 / -18 / -8



CMP: INR112



TP: INR119 (+7%)

Neutral

Financial snapshot (INR b)

y/e march

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

EBITDA

Adj. PAT

Adj. EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh.(INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuation

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div. Yield (%)

7.6

1.9

5.1

5.4

9.5

1.7

5.3

2.1

9.8

1.5

5.0

2.0

9.0

1.3

4.4

2.2

432.1 475.1 518.8 532.4

47.1

25.9

14.8

57.5

31.4

19.6

34.7

39.9

20.5

11.7

66.4

18.9

13.7

23.4

39.2

20.0

11.4

(2.5)

75.2

16.1

13.0

23.4

40.2

21.7

12.4

8.3

84.7

15.5

13.2

23.4



95.1 (20.7)

Reuters Singapore’s GRM is up +9% YoY (-3% QoQ) at USD7.0/bbl.

We model MRPL’s GRM at USD5.2/bbl (v/s USD6.8/bbl in 3QFY18

and USD8.1/bbl in 4QFY17).

We expect refinery throughput at 4.1mmt v/s 4.5mmt in 3QFY18

and 4.2mmt in 4QFY17.

We expect MRPL to report EBITDA of INR7.5b (v/s INR17.5b in

3QFY18). We estimate adjusted PAT at INR3.5b (v/s INR9.7b in

3QFY18).

For MRPL, we model GRM of USD6.4/bbl in FY19/20. The stock

trades at 9x FY20E EPS of INR12.4 and EV of 4.4x FY19E EBITDA.

Maintain Neutral.

Key issues to watch for



GRM



Forex fluctuations



Inventory changes

Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

Key Assumptions

Refining throughput (mmt)

Core GRM (USD/bbl)

E: MOSL Estimates

84,288

-25.5

12,206

14.5

1,703

1,459

2,295

11,340

4,155

7,185

36.0

8.5

3.7

5.3

FY17

99,690 114,753 133,349 102,624

-2.5

30.1

43.5

21.8

7,855 11,476 15,540

5,827

7.9

10.0

11.7

5.7

1,681

1,702

1,703

1,637

1,115

1,395

1,219

1,074

926

636

375

204

5,984

9,015 12,993

3,320

0 -15,973

5,984

9,015 28,966

3,320

1,826

3,355

9,542

980

4,159

5,660 19,424

2,340

4,159

5,660

8,713

2,340

-146.5

91.8

-35.5

-67.4

4.2

4.9

6.5

2.3

4.0

5.5

4.4

5.1

4.2

8.1

4.0

7.1

FY18E

4QE

90,965 141,020 140,458 432,079 475,068

-8.8

22.9

5.3

9.0

9.9

9,082 17,495

7,495 47,076 39,900

10.0

12.4

5.3

10.9

8.4

1,701

1,720

1,767

6,788

6,825

1,053

1,159

1,135

5,188

4,422

828

202

593

4,232

1,827

7,156 14,819

5,185 39,332 30,480

259

0 -15,973

259

6,898 14,819

5,185 55,305 30,221

2,118

5,110

1,728 18,877

9,936

4,780

9,709

3,457 36,428 20,285

4,959

9,709

3,457 25,907 20,459

19.2

71.5

-60.3

98.3

-21.0

5.5

6.9

2.5

6.0

4.3

3.5

5.3

4.5

6.8

4.1

5.2

16.3

6.0

16.1

6.1

(INR Million)

FY17

FY18E

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Agri

PI Industries

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

PI IN

136.6

123 / 2

1035 / 674

4 / 15 / -3



CMP: INR903



TP: INR1061 (+18%)

Buy

We expect revenue to grow 5.6% YoY to INR6,392m, aided by

growth of 7% in agri-input business and 5% in CSM business.

We estimate 110bp margin contraction to 24.3%, and expect

EBITDA to remain flat at INR1,553m.

We estimate adjusted PAT at INR1,156m, as against INR1,352m in

4QFY17. Buy.

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E March

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

EBITDA

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

EV/Sales (x)

27.0

7.6

21.0

5.1

30.2

6.4

20.1

4.8

23.7

5.3

15.9

4.2

20.4

4.3

13.3

3.5

22.8

5.5

4.6

33.4

46.4

32.8

31.0

23.2

5.6

4.1

29.9

-10.5

23.0

22.6

26.5

6.9

5.2

38.1

27.3

24.3

30.4

8.0

6.1

44.2

16.2

23.3

29.5



118.3 141.4 171.6 207.9

Key things to watch for



CSM growth and order book.



New launches and tie-ups.

Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model

Y/E March

Net Sales

YoY Change (%)

Total Expenditure

EBITDA

Margins (%)

Depreciation

Interest

Other Income

PBT before EO expense

Extra-Ord expense

PBT

Tax

Rate (%)

Reported PAT

Adj PAT

YoY Change (%)

Margins (%)

E: MOSL Estimates

6,834

15.4

4,734

2,100

30.7

178

113

2,019

306

15.2

1,713

99.5

25.1

FY17

5,719

4,878

20.0

-4.5

4,161

3,845

1,558

1,033

27.2

21.2

181

183

134

133

1,497

972

1,497

972

205

13.7

3.4

1,293

939

1,293

939

126.8

32.6

22.6

19.3

6,056

3.6

4,519

1,537

25.4

185

-21

1,299

-53

-4.0

1,352

40.8

22.3

5,848

-14.4

4,227

1,621

27.7

197

126

1,535

218

14.2

1,318

-23.1

22.5

FY18E

5,611

-1.9

4,389

1,222

21.8

205

123

1,127

324

28.7

803

-37.8

14.3

FY17

5,377

10.2

4,330

1,048

19.5

211

160

982

177

18.0

806

-14.2

15.0

4QE

6,392

5.6

4,839

1,553

24.3

220

124

1,445

289

20.0

1,156

-14.5

18.1

23,487

8.5

17,259

6,228

26.5

727

358

5,788

491

8.5

5,296

71.0

22.5

FY18E

23,228

-1.1

17,785

5,443

23.4

834

532

5,090

1,007

19.8

4,083

-22.9

17.6

15 May 2018

March 2018 Results Preview | Sector: Financials

Punjab National Bank

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

PNB IN

2765.4

265 / 4

232 / 91

-3 / -32 / -48



CMP: INR96



TP: INR160 (+67%)

Buy

Financial Snapshot (INR B)

Y/E March

2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

NII

149.9 159.1 201.7 232.6

145.7 139.1 164.6 188.7

13.2 -13.9

0.1

39.7

NIM (%)

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

EPS (INR)

6.2

-5.7

0.0

14.3

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

178

169

167

180

ABV/Sh. (INR)

112

137

RoE (%)

3.6

-3.0

0.0

7.7

RoA (%)

0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.4

Payout (%)

0.0

12.5

Valuations

P/E(X)

15.4

6.7

P/BV (X)

0.5

0.6

0.5

P/ABV (X)

1.35

1.09

0.86

0.70

Div. Yield (%)

0.0

1.7

1.9



We expect loan growth to pick up (+15% YoY/+7% QoQ). Deposits

should grow 8% YoY, reflecting some stickiness in CASA, post

inflows after demonetization.

NII is likely to grow 1.6% QoQ (and 10% YoY) with uptick in loan

book growth and improvement in margins.

Overall non-interest income is expected to decline by 35% YoY, as

fee income growth should be partly offset by moderation in

treasury gains.

Stress addition is likely to increase significantly on account of

fraud reported (16.3% slippages). We expect credit cost to be

~550bp.

Resolutions in key accounts and the fraud reported remains a key

trigger. The stock trades at 0.6x FY19E BV.

Maintain Buy.

Key issues to watch for



Outlook on asset quality, as net stressed loans remain one of the

highest in the industry.



Resolution of the ongoing fraud and its impact.



Trend in loan growth and fee income.



NIMs and CASA performance.

INR m

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Net Interest Income

% Change (YoY)

Other Income

Total Income

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

% Change (YoY)

Other Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax

Net Profit

% Change (YoY)

Operating Parameters

Deposits (INR b)

Loans (INR b)

Deposit Growth (%)

Loan Growth (%)

Asset Quality

Gross NPA (INR B)

Net NPA (INR B)

Gross NPA (%)

Net NPA (%)

PCR (%)

36,990

-9.8

23,551

60,541

27,794

32,746

4.6

27,384

5,362

2,299

3,064

-57.5

5,540

3,916

7.0

2.8

567

357

13.8

9.2

36.9

FY17

38,799

-10.2

23,879

62,678

29,557

33,120

12.7

25,338

7,783

2,289

5,494

-11.5

5,749

3,937

6.5

3.4

565

357

13.6

9.1

36.7

37,308

-9.4

21,398

58,706

30,897

27,809

-4.7

25,622

2,187

116

2,072

306.2

6,122

3,857

11.6

-1.8

556

350

13.7

9.1

37.1

36,835

33.1

31,028

67,863

5,545

62,318

93.1

57,535

4,783

2,164

2,619

6,217

4,195

12.4

1.7

554

327

12.5

7.8

40.9

38,551

4.2

23,318

61,869

29,696

32,173

-1.8

26,087

6,086

2,652

3,434

12.1

6,256

3,997

12.9

2.1

577

346

13.7

8.7

40.1

FY18E

40,152

3.5

19,060

59,212

26,421

32,791

-1.0

24,408

8,383

2,777

5,606

2.0

6,362

4,103

10.7

4.2

576

346

13.3

8.4

40.0

FY17

39,887

6.9

30,820

70,707

28,255

42,452

52.7

44,667

-2,215

-4,516

2,301

11.1

6,480

4,521

5.9

17.2

575

341

12.1

7.6

40.8

4QE

40,506

10.0

20,025

60,531

28,831

31,700

-49.1

64,091

-32,391

-7,156

-25,235

-1,063.6

6,745

4,833

8.5

15.2

693

436

13.6

9.0

37.2

1,49,932

-2.1

89,514

2,39,445

93,794

1,45,652

19.2

1,25,536

20,115

6,867

13,248

6,217

4,195

12.4

1.7

554

327

12.5

7.8

40.9

FY18E

1,59,096

6.1

93,223

2,52,319

1,13,203

1,39,116

-4.5

1,59,253

-20,137

-6,242

-13,895

-204.9

6,745

4,833

8.5

15.2

693

436

13.6

9.0

37.2

15 May 2018

In conversation

1. MPHASIS : Still have a strong partnership with blackstone after

the sale; Nitin Rakesh, ED and CEO



It was an 8% stake sale, so Blackstone holding now about 52% odd.

The idea was to create more liquidity in the stock and Blackstone still retains

controlling position. From that perspective nothing much changes from

company’s point of view. Still have a strong partnership.

Blackstone have clearly said that they don’t intend to sell anymore because their

global positioning always has to have controlling positions.

2. CANARA BANK : Expect loan growth of 10-12%, retail growth

of 20-22% this year; Rakesh Sharma, MD and CEO



Rs 8,181 crore of slippages came in from Reserve Bank of India’s instructions.

Agricultural slippages at INR 890 crores.

Bank’s efforts are that by September gross non-performing asset (NPA) should

come down around 9.5 percent and net NPA below 5.5 percent.

28 cases of National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) exposures are under

resolution process.

Bank’s target for overall growth in the current year will be 10-12 percent but

retail will grow by 20-25 percent.

3. Graphite India maintains strong and positive outlook for first

quarter; K K Bangur, Chairman



Margins would expand, prices are better, volumes will be more and capacity

utilisation will improve. So maintain a strong and positive outlook for Q1, as well

as quarters to come.

Realisation was lower in the fourth quarter because of legacy orders and in

FY18, around 70% of the orders were at legacy prices.

Legacy orders are likely to be in low single-digit of the total sales in FY19.

The graphite prices and demand is expected to remain robust going forward as

well. The spot prices currently are at $17,000-23,000 per tonne.

Needle coke availability is low because of its divergence into lithium batteries

but the company has been able to secure the supply to run capacity to the

optimum.

4. SOUTH INDIAN BANK : Revised regulatory guidelines impacted

asset quality of the bank; VG Mathew, Managing Director and

Chief Executive Officer



Revised regulatory guidelines impacted the asset quality of the bank.

Bank had recoveries of Rs 409 crore including sale to asset reconstruction

companies (ARCs) and therefore, bank had a closing balance of Rs 1,980 crore.

The loan growth has been 17%. Bank had projected 18% but have been able to

achieve 17% because of some recent selloff and also some significant pre-

payment that bank has been able to collect in one of the accounts in the

corporate book, which has come down. Otherwise, well on target of 18%.

15 May 2018

From the think tank

1. India, the new battlefield for giant retailers



The great global retail battle has now truly arrived in India. Walmart closed a deal

last week to buy Flipkart for $16 billion. Rival Amazon was also interested but

perhaps lost out because it could have run into trouble with Indian competition

regulations. Amazon promptly announced after the Flipkart sale that it would be

pumping an additional Rs2,600 crore into its India operations. The past few years

have seen the boundary between traditional retail and online commerce

dissipate. Companies have tried to provide consumers with an integrated

experience. Walmart made the first move when it paid $3.3 billion for start-up

Jet.com. Amazon followed with a $13.7 billion deal to buy Whole Foods Market, a

chain of brick-and-mortar stores. The emerging India battle should be seen in this

context. It is significant that Walmart has made a big bet on an online retailer like

Flipkart. Corporate strategists are torn into two camps over an existential

question. Who is more likely to succeed—the traditional retailer that has moved

online or the online retailer that has bought physical stores?

2. What India can learn from Mexico’s experience



Benito Juárez International Airport in Mexico City is an airport that shows signs

of wear and tear. It serves as the gateway to most who fly into Mexico. In 2017,

about 44 million passengers used the terminal, making it the busiest in Latin

America (it would rank about 15th on Asia’s list, behind Mumbai and Delhi). A

second airport, about 10 miles further from the city, was commissioned by

incumbent President Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN). It is slated for completion in

2022 and will join a slate of other infrastructure projects—in roads, rail, ports

and logistics— initiated during EPN’s six-year term that ends this year (he is not

permitted another term under Mexico’s constitution). Under EPN, Mexico has

been a front-runner in reforms, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-

operation and Development (OECD). Reform action was led by the Pacto por

Mexico, a historic agreement between the three main parties to restore high

growth after years of tepid growth. The scope and speed of reform have been

remarkable and have in particular targeted Mexico’s oligopolistic sectors—

telecommunications, electricity and oil. All three have been substantially

deregulated and the regulatory framework for private sector participation has

been established.

3. How to improve agricultural productivity



Global attention has been devoted to water scarcity and its effect on Indian

farmers. However, new analysis from Indian researchers suggests that far more

good could come if irrigation were combined with seed improvement. Tata Trusts

and Copenhagen Consensus have commissioned new research by noted experts

from India and around the world, looking at measures that would help Indian

states respond to major challenges and improve their competitiveness, economic

performance, and the well-being and prosperity of citizens. The new research

focuses on establishing how much different policies would cost, and what they

would achieve overall in economic, environmental and societal benefits. Now, two

new research papers add to the volume of evidence on how to boost agricultural

performance. The first of these is by Dinesh Kumar, executive director of the

15 May 2018

Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (Irap), Hyderabad. It examines policies

that would reduce the effects of water scarcity in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh.

4. Distressed asset investments in India



The distressed asset investment landscape in India has come of age and the time

is ripe for discerning investors to step in and pick “value” assets. Over the last

two years, there has been a remarkable change in the resolution process for

non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks’ balance sheets. While India has had a

fair share of stressed assets at regular intervals, investors have stayed away

from the space in the absence of robust legal, regulatory and resolution

frameworks. Lack of creditor-friendly laws have allowed promoters to exploit

the system and banks have continued “evergreening” loans with lax oversight.

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) changed the game. It has given

stressed asset resolutions a legal structure, well-defined processes,

responsibilities and timelines. The initial cases before the National Company

Law Tribunal (NCLT) indicate that the authorities are being proactive in ironing

out new challenges. While global entities are waiting to see how the new

frameworks play out, domestic ones have already started working actively in the

space to acquire assets at discounted prices.

International

5. A new era of nuclear uncertainty



With the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement – formally

known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – US President Donald

Trump’s administration has demonstrated, yet again, that it is determined to

destroy major global structures and agreements. The decision will be a massive

blow to the 2015 deal, putting the entire world at risk. The JCPOA – the result of

years of difficult negotiations – was agreed by seven countries and the European

Union, and unanimously endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. Yet

Trump has decided unilaterally to impose “the highest level of economic

sanction” on Iran and on “any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear

weapons.” Now, companies and banks from countries that have lived up to their

commitments under the JCPOA stand to suffer considerably, as a result of their

legitimate business ties with Iran. In other words, the country that is breaking its

promises has decided to punish those that have kept theirs.

15 May 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

Valuation snapshot

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Mahindra CIE

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Sumi

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Aggregate

Banks - Private

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC Bank

IndusInd

J&K Bank

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Aggregate

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

Indian Bk

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

Aggregate

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap

Bajaj Fin.

Capital First

Cholaman.Inv.&Fn

Dewan Hsg.

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

HDFC Stand. Life

Indiabulls Hsg

L&T Fin Holdings

LIC Hsg Fin

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

CMP TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

865 1000

155 179

2835 3550

733 869

18199 19096

1430 1845

30472 34714

1184 1531

942 826

259 301

3649 4052

850 914

240 274

8715 10468

337 437

324 565

620 709

-12

28.3

5.4

147.9

20.0

459.1

64.0

799.6

27.9

39.1

8.2

185.1

39.7

9.6

266.7

8.1

24.8

14.1

34.0 40.0 0.9

7.2

9.2 28.8

167.8 197.2 4.8

26.4 34.8 52.8

582.9 694.4 -3.0

84.9 115.3 -31.5

1,046.3 1,340.9 27.0

38.2 51.0 18.8

49.5 59.0 103.5

10.1 12.8 0.4

201.2 229.1 9.5

46.9 51.2 45.1

13.7 16.6 107.8

349.9 444.8 7.3

12.5 17.5 5.0

57.0 65.7 25.2

22.4 32.4 20.4

17.0

19.4

9.7

7.5

5.8

79.3

17.8

3.2

83.0

10.0

40.5

22.1

4.1

24.3

35.8

11.5

11.9

8.2

94.5

24.1

3.8

104.4

14.4

50.1

29.5

5.3

32.1

-92.8

13.8

-82.3

-1.3

19.4

-31.0

0.3

25.2

21.3

27.3

-22.9

26.3

4.0

20.3

33.1

13.5

32.1

27.0

32.8

30.9

37.0

26.5

23.5

8.6

18.0

43.1

31.2

54.7

129.8

58.8

47.6

#####

22.4

710.5

21.3

16.9

68.7

7.2

37.9

13.5

24.5

46.1

115.7

31.7

45.1

17.6

27.1

17.5

31.7

19.1

35.8

28.2

33.5

19.3

26.1

13.9

9.3

20.5

27.1

39.6

15.3

44.1

20.6

84.1

17.9

58.1

42.4

19.3

35.2

19.2

25.8

43.6

23.6

33.6

28.9

32.3

33.0

30.6

28.5

19.2

36.7

39.6

22.4

38.1

42.4

24.1

31.6

19.7

21.4

24.9

32.7

41.7

13.1

43.8

25.9

497.0

23.7

179.1

18.9

29.8

29.4

14.0

31.8

6.1

39.0

34.1

13.8

18.7

32.5

41.9

12.0

88.6

0.0

39.9

41.6

16.8

25.2

16.7

69.5

46.0

97.9

13.5

26.4

12.7

25.4

21.4

16.9

27.8

31.2

16.8

29.1

31.0

19.0

25.6

18.1

17.4

24.9

26.9

5.7

27.6

17.5

28.4

19.3

22.1

15.5

25.5

17.4

13.1

23.1

5.4

31.3

23.3

6.4

14.2

22.4

16.0

15.7

30.1

8.4

2,640

13.6

14.7

28.2

30.2

12.9

21.0

12.1

59.7

39.6

81.3

11.2

19.2

11.1

4.9

6.5

4.4

7.1

5.8

2.2

11.8

8.1

3.9

4.1

6.2

3.5

2.4

6.3

7.5

1.6

10.1

4.5

2.2

2.3

2.5

1.4

4.9

1.9

0.9

4.9

0.6

4.8

3.2

1.0

3.1

3.3

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.5

1.0

0.4

0.8

4.3

5.4

4.0

5.9

5.2

2.0

8.9

6.7

3.3

3.7

5.5

3.2

2.1

5.4

6.3

1.2

7.9

3.8

2.0

2.3

1.3

3.8

1.8

0.9

4.2

0.5

4.4

3.0

0.9

2.6

2.8

17.3

24.3

23.9

20.9

15.2

10.3

35.2

20.8

18.3

12.9

33.8

14.6

10.4

18.5

19.2

13.2

25.3

17.4

0.5

10.9

1.4

8.3

17.9

6.7

6.8

16.5

9.1

10.9

11.6

6.9

17.7

10.2

18.0

27.6

24.6

23.3

17.5

12.5

34.9

23.8

18.7

14.4

32.1

14.8

13.1

21.4

25.4

24.3

32.0

21.6

7.4

11.1

10.7

9.0

16.9

10.8

6.9

19.6

9.9

12.0

13.3

13.7

19.9

12.7

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

552

188

166

2021

310

1914

1269

515

345

600

198

185

127

2400

380

2150

100

1400

650

444

1.1

8.0

0.9

4.8

67.8

10.6

3.0

60.2

8.8

32.5

15.1

1.9

18.4

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

143

250

314

253

185

112

266

371

160

362

3.4

-18.8

-63.5

26.2

-5.7

2.9

-56.5

8.9

6.3

8.3

37.3

0.0

18.7

-1.5

15.7 -43.1 161.5 75.6

12.1 Loss LP 91.8

39.9

LP 380.7

45.6 -10.4 42.5 22.1

14.3

LP 42,272

34.0 861.1 553.8 81.6

5.7

PL Loss LP

LP 106.0

42.1

34.2

27.5

19.1

22.8

20.4

18.9

25.8

20.9

49.3

18.7

0.9 2.0 5.0

0.5 -7.7 3.0

0.6 NA 1.8

0.8 8.3 11.0

0.5 -3.0 0.0

1.0 -0.3 5.7

0.4 -23.8 -0.7

0.8 -1.2 5.2

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

150

1861

574

1571

625

690

1930

540

1217

179

501

215

2330

960

1930

765

600

2225

475

1650

240

610

-13

-12

3.8

5.3

7.5

NA 41.5

44.8 61.7 82.8 39.8 37.8

34.2 44.6 56.8 38.9 30.2

62.3 75.0 89.3 35.5 20.4

37.4 51.7 63.5 26.2 38.4

9.9 11.6 13.9 21.9 16.6

42.0 48.7 57.9 5.3 16.1

5.5

6.6

8.4 23.5 20.4

90.2 108.8 131.5 31.5 20.6

6.8

9.3

13.9 29.5 37.4

39.4 45.0 53.5 3.0 14.3

3.8 3.0 12.4 12.1

6.5 5.5 20.2 19.9

2.2 1.9 13.7 15.6

4.8 4.0 20.6 20.7

2.3 2.0 14.1 17.4

20.4 16.9 32.6 31.0

5.2 4.5 18.4 17.5

3.5 2.9 21.7 21.7

4.0 3.5 30.7 33.2

2.9 2.6 13.4 14.1

2.1 1.8 17.0 17.2

15 May 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

610

493

431

1272

590

2285

1445

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E

750

24.4 31.1 38.9

600

14.5 20.7 26.5

475

44.0 44.7 49.8

1750

49.9 65.7 87.3

740

32.9 39.0 46.0

2800

100.8 145.9 175.9

1950

69.1 118.2 141.5

Valuation snapshot

Company

MAS Financial

M&M Fin.

Muthoot Fin

PNB Housing

Repco Home

Shriram City Union

Shriram Trans.

Aggregate

Capital Goods

ABB

Bharat Elec.

BHEL

Blue Star

CG Cons. Elec.

CG Power & Indu.

Cummins

Engineers India

GE T&D

Havells

K E C Intl

L&T

Siemens

Solar Ind

Thermax

Va Tech Wab.

Voltas

Aggregate

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

ACC

Birla Corp.

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Inds.

India Cem

JK Lakshmi Ce

Ramco Cem

Orient Cem

Prism Johnson

Sagar Cements

Sanghi Inds.

Shree Cem

Ultratech

Aggregate

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Future Consumer

Godrej Cons.

GSK Cons.

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Lab

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Buy

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

62.2 27.5 25.2 25.0 19.6 3.7 3.3 21.3 17.8

104.9 42.9 27.9 34.0 23.8 3.3 3.0 10.5 13.1

48.9 1.6 11.4

9.8

9.7

2.2 1.9 24.5 20.9

57.7 31.8 32.9 25.5 19.4 3.4 3.0 14.3 16.5

13.0 18.5 18.1 17.9 15.1 2.8 2.4 16.7 16.9

19.5 44.8 20.6 22.7 15.7 2.8 2.4 12.7 16.3

24.7 71.0 19.8 20.9 12.2 2.6 2.2 13.1 19.5

26.9 27.3 24.5 32.0 25.1 4.6 4.0 14.5 15.8

17.7

7.6

19.4

26.9

18.4

58.8

18.6

19.8

14.2

19.3

28.3

20.0

18.8

26.1

23.9

9.8

13.9

18.7

31.9

31.0

19.2

41.3

14.2

41.8

40.5

27.6

62.2

32.7

39.7

32.5

35.1

41.3

29.4

62.9

19.2

24.6

46.3

46.1

69.5

33.2

24.2

37.0

48.4

25.2

28.4

51.6

43.7

41.9

13.9

33.1

32.0

36.1

30.5

95.1

52.9

23.1

46.9

67.6

34.5

57.5

46.0

37.8

21.6

41.5

48.6

40.0

61.4

64.8

46.2

47.6

43.5

51.2

35.3

62.8

31.8

44.4

45.7

17.3

21.5

31.2

36.3

42.5

24.6

22.1

33.7

38.0

21.6

24.0

37.9

35.3

33.4

13.2

28.0

26.6

26.8

23.8

16.7

38.0

11.2

20.5

25.6

28.0

23.1

22.4

18.8

11.6

31.9

33.8

25.3

50.7

51.9

39.2

41.1

35.7

187.3

44.6

31.3

53.3

28.0

34.3

7.3 6.6 11.6 14.3

3.2 2.9 16.6 16.7

0.9 0.9 3.6 4.0

9.2 8.5 20.4 28.3

20.1 16.5 50.2 49.9

1.2 1.2 1.7 2.7

5.3 4.9 16.5 20.7

3.5 3.2 13.9 14.1

8.1 7.0 23.5 22.3

9.1 8.0 18.7 21.0

5.5 4.6 21.7 21.1

3.5 3.2 13.0 14.0

4.7 4.4 9.1 11.5

8.9 7.4 21.9 22.9

4.8 4.3 11.9 13.6

2.2 2.0 17.1 16.0

5.3 4.6 16.9 17.6

3.5 3.2 10.9 12.2

2.2

3.0

1.7

4.5

1.5

0.8

3.2

4.7

2.5

5.3

2.4

1.7

6.3

4.3

3.2

14.8

20.1

22.5

11.4

11.9

9.4

11.8

7.1

48.1

6.9

6.5

2.0

2.9

1.5

4.1

1.4

0.8

2.9

4.1

2.3

4.4

2.1

1.5

5.4

3.9

2.9

13.6

17.3

21.1

10.4

10.5

9.0

9.2

6.3

47.3

6.4

6.3

6.1

10.1

1.7

8.9

6.9

1.7

4.8

14.3

4.4

11.9

6.5

9.7

16.3

9.3

8.0

25.3

33.9

49.9

25.9

29.2

-1.8

24.9

21.2

78.2

22.8

14.3

7.8

12.4

9.6

11.3

12.9

3.9

11.7

15.6

10.3

21.2

12.0

15.6

18.2

12.2

11.5

27.9

35.8

55.5

26.5

31.3

4.9

23.2

21.4

89.6

23.8

18.5

Sell

Buy

Sell

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

1247

126

768

235

764

152

381

543

409

1380

1020

1065

1175

464

596

1060

196

875

305

1040

200

430

630

390

1690

1185

1100

1350

700

660

-15

-5

19.8

6.5

3.2

16.6

5.1

1.1

23.0

6.3

10.3

11.2

16.2

48.6

19.8

24.4

28.0

33.3

18.0

27.3

7.3

3.6

24.6

6.5

1.9

31.0

6.9

11.3

14.3

18.9

57.6

26.9

30.2

35.1

35.2

21.3

32.1 8.1 37.7

7.8

3.7 11.4

4.3 135.9 14.2

31.2 36.0 48.2

7.7

8.9 27.1

3.0 -72.2 63.3

36.8 -13.2 34.7

8.2 48.1 9.2

12.9 79.8 9.7

17.1 17.4 27.4

24.3 36.6 16.7

69.0 14.8 18.5

31.9 10.9 36.2

38.0 18.2 23.8

43.5 3.1 25.3

38.6 76.4 5.7

24.3 16.4 18.4

16.7 20.2

10.7

79.6

50.5

102.1

111.8

9.4

21.2

37.8

8.7

6.5

70.6

11.3

683.8

171.3

29.5

31.3

-74.0

34.0

-29.8

-48.5

-17.7

-11.9

769.4

59.3

1.1

-12.3

-6.9

34.9

28.1

470.3

39.1

105.6

129.3

163.8

23.4

148.6

105.1

101.0

86.0

30.3

43.8

58.5

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Not Rated

Buy

218 255

1448 1747

706 1004

2748 3350

1100 1187

136 148

387 470

829 967

124 170

109 144

951

99 157

16135 19731

4095 4818

6.0

47.4

7.4

52.0

47.6

2.9

5.7

24.0

2.2

2.4

25.2

4.6

388.5

84.3

8.1

60.7

42.3

72.3

97.9

6.6

15.1

29.7

5.4

4.9

50.6

8.5

506.3

121.2

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

1298

5459

1108

370

1055

1082

5873

1505

284

375

1280

6180

1420

435

1390

1155

6255

1805

275

405

-1

-3

21.1

84.2

24.0

7.8

24.3

-0.1

21.1

166.5

24.0

9.0

8.5

25.6 30.5 1.9 21.1 19.0

105.1 131.5 14.3 24.8 25.1

28.3 33.8 12.9 17.9 19.7

9.0

10.4 7.2 16.0 15.5

29.6 35.6 -8.5 21.9 20.4

0.3

1.1 Loss LP 276.5

24.3 28.1 11.7 14.9 15.9

187.8 215.6 6.6 12.8 14.8

28.3 33.3 22.1 17.9 17.8

10.2 11.4 6.6 13.7 12.4

10.9 13.6 -24.8 29.3 24.0

15 May 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

Reco

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E

Neutral

312 350

6.4

7.6

9.0

Neutral

9573 9535

140.0 189.3 209.0

Buy

23993 27490

297.1 415.7 549.8

Buy

1101 1115

17.6 20.6 23.7

Neutral

8920 9065

131.3 162.1 187.8

Not Rated 179

3.5

6.4

9.7

Buy

1101 1450

14.1 17.4 22.9

Neutral

3194 3510

32.6 56.9 78.5

Valuation snapshot

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

15.8 13.8 34.0 35.8

27.0 24.0 40.3 50.2

32.2 25.7 39.9 44.6

14.1 12.2 24.2 24.5

35.8 30.2 57.0 59.7

2.5 2.3 4.9 8.5

11.0 9.5 14.9 16.2

16.8 12.5 17.2 22.3

13.3 11.9 26.8 28.7

4.0 3.5 22.5 19.8

4.7 4.0 16.4 19.5

4.6 3.9 26.0 20.4

3.0 2.5 24.2 21.7

7.3 6.7 7.2 11.5

4.9 4.1 21.6 22.8

3.3 2.9 12.4 13.3

5.6 5.0 16.0 20.0

2.6 2.3 9.0 13.9

1.2 1.2 1.2 2.2

2.7 2.3 16.4 15.3

1.7 1.5 13.2 13.9

12.5 15.5 19.7 27.2

3.3 3.0 10.5 13.0

3.2 2.6 18.9 21.5

3.4 2.9 11.9 17.8

2.4 2.2 10.1 12.1

5.5 5.1 16.1 16.8

3.5 2.9 11.0 17.4

1.6 1.4 4.6 12.1

3.0 2.8 8.5 13.2

4.7 4.2 17.6 19.9

3.5 3.1 12.2 14.6

2.7

1.5

3.9

3.5

2.3

1.6

3.6

1.8

3.2

2.5

1.3

3.3

3.1

2.0

1.5

3.4

1.6

2.9

2.2

14.6

23.6

13.5

12.4

10.8

9.4

6.6

9.1

6.9

14.1

16.2

13.7

12.4

13.7

13.4

10.7

12.7

Company

Marico

Nestle

Page Inds

Pidilite Ind.

P&G Hygiene

Prabhat Dairy

United Brew

United Spirits

Aggregate

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Aurobindo

Biocon

Cadila

Cipla

Divis Lab

Dr Reddy’s

Fortis Health

Glenmark

Granules

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs

Jubilant Life

Laurus Labs

Lupin

Sanofi India

Shilpa Medicare

Strides Shasun

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Aggregate

Infrastructure

Ashoka Buildcon

IRB Infra

KNR Constructions

Sadbhav Engineering

Aggregate

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics

Concor

Gateway Distriparks

Aggregate

Media

Dish TV

D B Corp

Den Net.

Ent.Network

Hathway Cable

Hind. Media

HT Media

Jagran Prak.

Music Broadcast

PVR

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E

2.0 18.3 18.2 48.7 41.2

13.2 35.2 10.4 68.4 50.6

24.5 39.9 32.2 80.8 57.7

5.4 17.0 14.9 62.4 53.4

-1.2 23.4 15.8 67.9 55.0

-2.0 83.8 52.1 51.6 28.1

62.0 23.9 31.2 78.2 63.2

22.1 74.3 38.1 97.9 56.2

9.9 19.0 16.9 49.4 41.5

18.9

22.1

20.6

12.6

58.8

19.5

22.1

26.6

17.7

54.0

15.3

11.7

57.2

24.3

13.5

17.6

18.8

30.2

18.5

12.6

22.0

22.2

21.2

38.4

9.9

21.9

24.0

16.4

11.2

26.2

15.8

23.2

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

484

1979

1065

611

634

392

577

1171

2016

149

503

2436

711

844

480

754

4890

449

513

474

1362

555

2500

1560

820

600

555

600

1100

2575

185

550

175

2500

750

1110

586

940

5600

686

989

675

1400

-5

-6

24.8

65.4

53.0

43.8

6.2

16.0

21.6

32.9

67.1

1.5

30.6

6.3

38.3

21.4

45.6

15.8

31.0

141.7

13.3

14.1

13.2

48.0

25.6 30.5 15.0 3.1 19.1 19.5

89.5 110.6 -12.4 36.9 23.6 30.3

51.6 65.0 -7.5 -2.6 25.9 20.1

48.7 53.6 11.4 11.2 10.1 14.0

10.8 19.8 -39.2 73.9 83.3 102.2

20.1 23.3 12.7 25.5 15.9 24.5

26.2 32.0 35.7 21.3 22.3 26.8

44.0 52.7 -17.7 33.9 19.7 35.6

114.1 146.1 -7.6 70.0 28.0 30.0

2.8

7.3 -85.8 87.8 164.5 101.3

32.9 41.1 -22.2 7.7 24.7 16.5

7.9

11.0 -12.4 25.2 38.7 14.6

42.6 48.5 11.5 11.2 13.7 63.6

29.2 37.3 33.2 36.6 27.7 33.2

62.6 72.5 23.3 37.3 15.9 18.5

27.3 34.3 -10.9 72.1 25.8 30.3

40.2 54.1 -45.2 29.5 34.6 24.3

161.8 186.9 9.8 14.2 15.5 34.5

24.3 30.6 -5.0 82.4 25.9 33.8

40.8 55.7 -56.2 188.8 36.7 36.3

21.5 27.7 -49.6 63.3 28.8 36.0

61.3 78.5 -12.9 27.6 28.0 28.4

-20.0 34.8 25.7 28.6

7.0

26.0

14.0

16.0

8.3

26.5

18.2

17.4

LP 238.0 18.1

17.5 9.0

1.9

41.2 -17.3 30.2

27.1 14.9 8.6

129.7

10.8

18.1

27.6

18.4

15.5

39.9

26.8

34.9

Buy

Neutral

Buy

268

257

305

384

290

375

460

2.1

23.9

16.9

13.9

Buy

127 198

1399 1553

167 231

8.2

35.1

6.2

11.4

53.4

10.6

13.2

64.6

12.9

-16.5

12.5

-8.3

4.6

-10.4

Loss

-37.2

Loss

-7.5

78.9

-5.3

29.9

38.6

52.1

69.8

50.8

25.8

113.8

0.1

-20.8

30.5

62.3

42.4

16.3

21.0

21.8

20.3

109.9

20.1

5,545

86.9

161.9

10.2

10.4

21.5

31.4

34.7

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

278

100

674

215

166

360

1413

101

420

820

237

215

469

1760

-10

-0.3

18.3

-2.9

7.2

-0.2

23.9

13.2

10.1

8.3

26.7

1.6

23.0

0.1

15.3

0.8

23.9

10.5

13.1

13.5

38.0

3.4

27.6

4.0

28.7

2.0

26.3

11.5

16.0

17.8

51.2

44.1 16.9 12.2 -7.8 32.1

15.2 12.1 2.8 2.3 19.6 21.0

NM 1,411.1 2.3 2.3 -6.3 0.2

94.0 44.0 3.6 3.4 3.9 7.9

40.5 2.2 2.1 -1.2 5.2

9.0

1.2 1.1 14.0 12.4

6.1

7.7

0.7 0.7 12.8 9.1

16.5 12.6 2.6 2.3 14.9 18.5

43.1 26.6 3.4 3.1 8.3 12.2

53.0 37.2 6.1 5.3 12.2 15.3

15 May 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

964

578

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E

130

2.5

5.8

7.9

-0.9

0.1

0.6

1200

27.7 35.0 40.6

690

14.5 16.5 19.7

Valuation snapshot

Company

Prime Focus

Siti Net.

Sun TV

Zee Ent.

Aggregate

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

SAIL

Rain Industries

Vedanta

Tata Steel

Aggregate

Oil & Gas

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Aggregate

Retail

Jubilant Food

PC Jeweller

Titan Co.

Aggregate

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

L&T Infotech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Aggregate

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Buy

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

100.6 137.5 36.4 36.0 15.1 3.7 2.3 11.6 18.9

Loss LP 411.6 NM 130.2 3.2 3.1 -15.8 2.4

11.6 26.2 15.9 34.8 27.5 8.2 7.5 25.2 28.4

8.4 14.1 19.0 39.8 34.9 7.3 6.3 19.6 19.4

15.7 33.8 27.9 35.9 26.8 5.1 4.5 14.3 16.8

12.7

14.1

15.3

17.3

8.4

10.6

13.3

10.5

14.2

43.3

10.1

16.4

41.8

14.0

8.1

8.2

28.7

15.6

9.1

12.9

11.2

15.3

16.2

11.6

82.0

11.5

73.1

56.7

21.5

14.8

25.9

18.4

20.5

24.7

28.9

22.4

23.4

19.7

29.9

26.0

16.7

14.4

22.8

20.8

9.3

11.1

40.6

13.7

7.6

8.2

16.8

7.1

10.0

8.8

10.4

28.5

9.8

15.1

26.5

13.3

9.9

9.6

24.4

16.2

9.3

8.7

8.6

13.4

14.1

10.6

59.0

9.1

55.5

43.4

19.5

13.8

22.7

17.0

19.0

22.4

22.8

18.1

19.2

16.9

25.7

22.8

15.7

14.2

17.9

19.7

1.6

3.5

0.8

2.9

1.5

0.8

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.6

11.9

2.3

1.9

6.6

2.0

2.2

1.5

5.5

4.2

1.6

0.9

1.1

3.3

2.0

1.5

1.4

2.9

0.8

2.4

1.3

0.8

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.5

9.0

2.0

1.7

5.5

1.8

1.9

1.3

4.7

3.8

1.4

0.9

1.0

2.8

1.7

1.4

13.7

26.7

-2.7

20.9

8.4

18.2

-1.0

22.9

13.3

16.0

11.6

30.7

24.1

11.9

16.7

15.0

28.2

18.5

20.7

28.0

18.9

7.4

9.6

23.7

13.0

13.2

16.3

28.6

2.1

19.4

18.3

17.2

4.8

26.3

17.1

16.2

14.2

35.9

21.6

12.0

22.7

14.0

20.6

14.4

20.8

24.4

16.1

10.5

12.0

22.9

13.2

13.1

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

242

297

260

329

115

250

282

610

370

336

349

334

120

215

426

345

778

-2

19.0

21.1

-8.5

21.5

4.3

13.6

-0.9

23.7

21.3

58.2

26.1

26.8

6.4

24.0

9.9

14.0

4.3

35.2

28.3

69.4

29.2 122.3 37.0 12.0

30.6 7.2 26.8 14.2

10.4 Loss LP 62.3

23.7 45.3 11.5 -1.0

10.2 16.8 128.2 3.2

14.7 37.0 2.9

4.7

6.5 Loss LP 50.2

39.8 238.1 48.5 13.2

35.3 40.7 33.0 24.7

61.4 53.4 19.1 -11.5

67.8 36.0 10.8

12.3

46.5

24.6

41.6

13.9

37.8

21.7

12.5

54.6

12.4

28.1

23.5

18.8

74.9

74.2

-17.3

23.9

32.0

43.8

-2.9

-1.2

6.9

27.0

-20.7

-18.3

2.3

23.0

20.7

5.4

52.1

2.9

8.8

58.1

4.9

-17.8

-15.0

17.7

-3.6

-2.5

48.1

29.6

14.3

15.0

9.7

28.5

13.0

7.7

24.2

4.5

16.5

23.1

13.2

1.2

8.3

3.3

8.2

17.9

6.8

10.7

31.4

27.6

25.9

27.0

11.8

8.0

11.0

10.8

29.2

17.9

23.9

9.6

19.4

21.7

18.6

10.9

16.4

13.0

27.2

10.9

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

272 303

403 554

344 285

885 1122

177 191

320 536

169 261

270 416

874 1228

106 119

236 260

187 222

214 317

985 1150

-17

6.3

40.0

21.0

21.2

12.7

39.5

20.7

9.4

55.9

11.7

18.3

16.8

14.0

60.9

9.5

41.2

22.9

33.5

13.3

32.5

17.6

11.1

53.9

11.4

27.2

21.8

16.0

70.1

Neutral

Buy

2438 2450

178 520

921 1150

192

29.7

15.4

12.6

41.4

19.5

16.6

54.4 180.6 39.1

24.9 44.4 26.6

20.9 39.5 31.7

48.8 30.8

16.6 14.3 20.3 24.3

1.8 1.6 16.9 18.4

16.1 14.4 23.9 27.4

11.0 9.7 19.4 22.3

3.9

3.5

6.5

4.2

2.9

7.1

6.0

3.5

3.7

3.1

10.0

8.0

3.4

2.5

3.3

5.1

3.5

3.2

5.6

3.7

2.5

5.7

5.2

3.2

3.3

3.0

7.9

6.9

2.9

2.1

2.9

4.6

18.1

25.0

26.9

24.1

14.9

32.4

18.8

14.6

16.2

16.7

37.6

30.3

20.9

17.0

15.3

24.6

18.1

24.0

26.4

22.9

14.0

28.4

24.3

18.3

18.2

18.7

34.3

32.5

20.1

16.4

17.1

23.2

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

822

926

429

1190

257

1638

993

985

1068

797

1157

3437

666

272

1200

800

1050

390

1330

250

1400

1000

960

1100

860

1400

3000

700

300

1400

-3

-9

-3

-15

-3

-13

38.2

62.6

16.6

64.8

12.5

66.3

34.4

44.0

45.6

40.4

38.7

132.1

39.8

18.9

52.8

42.2 47.1 24.8 10.3

66.9 72.2 4.5 6.9

18.9 21.0 21.2 14.2

70.1 77.7 3.1 8.3

13.5 17.5 5.1 7.8

73.3 86.3 19.5 10.5

43.5 53.9 38.0 26.7

54.6 59.8 13.2 23.9

55.7 66.6 19.8 22.3

47.0 57.2 7.2 16.4

45.0 53.4 37.7 16.2

150.5 166.9 -1.0 13.9

42.3 49.3 28.8 6.4

19.2 21.7 11.8 1.3

67.0 85.2 1.3 27.0

4.9 5.6

15 May 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

Valuation snapshot

Company

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Aggregate

Utiltites

Coal India

CESC

JSW Energy

NHPC

NTPC

Power Grid

Tata Power

Aggregate

Others

Arvind

Avenue Supermarts

BSE

Castrol India

Coromandel Intl

Delta Corp

Interglobe

Indo Count

Info Edge

Kaveri Seed

Manpasand

MCX

Navneet Education

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

Quess Corp

PI Inds.

Piramal Enterp.

SRF

S H Kelkar

Tata Chemicals

Team Lease Serv.

Trident

TTK Prestige

UPL

V-Guard

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Buy

CMP TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

382

316

635

581

346

730

4.1

13.6

-9.6

3.5

1.9

13.7

-12.3

7.5

5.6 -63.3 -53.8 197.1 93.6

14.2 -8.1 0.4

3.6

23.2

-10.5 Loss Loss Loss

21.1 -67.2 115.3 182.9 183.2

-98.8 PL

LP 3,037.6

16.5

9.5

16.1

7.0

9.3

6.0

22.7

11.1

36.5

32.0

20.9

4.0

18.4

41.4

34.1

16.6

27.1

17.0

34.6

16.6

17.6

-3.4

30.9

26.6

16.2

27.1

31.7

26.6

14.3

47.9

18.7

15.4

19.2

12.1

15.2

12.3

22.6

11.1

13.2

12.3

15.2

13.5

35.0

110.2

18.8

25.7

19.7

38.3

20.4

12.5

51.7

14.7

45.1

36.7

18.3

40.7

41.2

51.3

28.7

29.3

28.7

31.8

23.0

63.6

11.5

44.0

16.5

52.9

202.8 2.2 2.2 2.4 1.1

23.1 3.4 3.6 15.6 15.2

0.8 1.0 -16.0 -21.9

85.1 36.2 25.4 9.4 35.1

-134 2.2 2.3 0.1 -1.7

10.2

10.3

16.4

9.1

11.3

10.1

12.8

10.4

28.8

83.6

17.2

26.4

19.0

30.8

16.9

10.7

46.0

12.4

28.5

26.9

14.4

10.9

32.1

34.3

22.6

20.9

21.2

26.0

17.6

46.2

8.7

34.4

15.6

39.8

7.2

1.2

1.0

1.4

1.9

1.4

2.0

6.7

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.7

1.1

1.8

47.4

10.3

4.6

8.6

10.6

16.6

10.7

14.7

65.8

11.1

6.1

10.3

11.6

17.7

9.7

17.5

Buy

Sell

Buy

Sell

270

1049

172

209

397

1440

214

287

-11

-5

17.8 26.4 30.8 19.2 48.4

85.6 102.0 111.7 65.0 19.2

3.0

4.2

4.8 -21.2 37.9

2.4

3.0

3.2 -17.2 22.2

13.0 15.2 16.6 5.0 16.9

16.9 20.7 21.9 21.3 22.1

5.3

6.3

7.8

3.5 18.7

11.7 29.0

12.2

12.9

43.5

7.0

22.7

5.8

58.3

6.3

23.4

34.2

8.8

21.2

7.7

13.5

15.8

22.8

29.9

83.1

77.4

7.9

33.7

43.3

5.3

137.8

44.2

4.5

14.8 20.3 -1.4 21.6

17.0 22.5 68.4 31.9

47.4 57.2 6.0 9.0

6.8

7.1

2.9 -2.8

23.5 27.9 38.8 3.7

7.2

10.2 89.8 24.5

70.2 94.1 35.1 20.4

7.4

8.7 -46.0 17.1

26.3 33.4 49.0 12.5

40.6 47.4 79.5 18.5

13.9 18.7 38.2 58.4

28.9 33.7 -14.6 36.5

9.8

11.5 4.7 27.4

50.3 48.6 21.4 271.7

20.3 26.6 44.2 28.4

34.1 43.1 130.7 49.6

38.1 44.2 -10.5 27.3

116.4 147.9 14.5 40.0

105.0 138.3 -9.9 35.6

9.7

12.2 9.1 22.4

44.0 50.3 0.0 30.5

59.6 88.1 11.6 37.5

7.0

8.3 -21.8 32.7

176.1 203.2 4.4 27.8

46.7 55.6 5.9 5.6

6.0

6.7 25.3 32.9

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

427

1424

817

180

446

222

1188

1208

504

396

778

140

551

652

1169

859

2437

2221

252

773

2754

6067

728

237

460

900

1000

248

557

327

1318

1550

664

467

1050

195

654

737

1300

1061

3500

2351

318

940

2700

5281

945

167

-37

-2

-13

-30

2.9 2.7 8.6 9.8

19.0 16.4 18.9 21.1

1.4 1.2 7.6 6.8

17.4 16.3 69.1 63.8

4.2 3.7 22.1 20.6

3.7 3.4 12.3 11.5

6.5 6.1 41.3 37.0

1.6 1.4 13.9 14.1

6.8 6.1 13.7 14.0

3.6 3.2 23.4 27.1

3.7 3.4 7.2 12.3

2.9 2.7 7.9 10.4

4.2 3.6 24.2 26.9

3.1 2.5 7.8 25.1

3.5 2.8 9.6 9.6

6.5 5.2 22.3 21.7

6.1 5.0 23.0 24.3

2.2 2.0 8.9 10.2

3.7 3.2 13.3 16.3

4.1 3.7 13.4 14.9

2.1 2.0 11.3 11.5

10.3 8.5 17.7 20.1

1.0 1.0 9.2 11.4

7.5 6.7 18.0 20.7

4.0 3.3 26.9 23.3

12.9 10.3 26.9 28.8

15 May 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Mahindra CIE

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Sumi

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Banks - Private

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC Bank

IndusInd

J&K Bank

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

Indian Bk

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap

Bajaj Fin.

Capital First

Cholaman.Inv.&Fn

Dewan Hsg.

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

HDFC Stand. Life

Indiabulls Hsg

L&T Fin.Holdings

LIC Hsg Fin

M&M Fin.

Muthoot Fin

1 Day (%)

0.0

-4.2

0.6

1.1

-2.2

-0.7

-1.3

1.1

-0.4

-1.1

0.9

-2.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.7

-2.0

-0.8

-0.2

-1.0

0.3

-0.4

0.5

-0.4

-3.6

1.1

0.7

0.3

-0.5

3.5

-1.5

0.2

-0.6

1.4

-1.4

0.8

1.0

-0.2

-1.3

0.1

-2.6

-1.2

-0.1

-0.6

0.5

3.4

-2.0

0.3

0.0

-1.8

-1.1

1M (%)

6.5

3.7

1.6

-0.1

-7.1

-10.3

-2.8

-11.6

-0.5

7.4

-2.1

7.9

12.4

-4.6

-0.5

-9.1

-6.4

1.9

5.4

9.7

-9.1

4.8

7.5

-13.7

3.0

-9.5

10.5

2.8

5.4

11.4

-5.2

-10.7

-11.8

-2.3

-11.7

0.9

-10.7

-5.7

-3.0

-11.2

0.4

14.4

12.6

4.9

8.3

-9.3

7.6

-10.0

-0.6

0.2

12M (%)

-6.6

81.2

-5.5

31.3

-22.5

-12.1

4.5

46.6

45.7

5.7

3.2

24.5

-0.4

29.5

22.2

-24.7

20.1

9.9

-0.7

2.5

-21.9

30.5

14.9

-34.3

35.5

-35.6

33.1

-7.3

2.5

16.1

-23.5

-44.4

-31.8

-11.3

-47.1

-14.7

-49.6

Company

MAS Financial Serv.

PNB Housing

Repco Home

Shriram City Union

Shriram Trans.

Capital Goods

ABB

Bharat Elec.

BHEL

Blue Star

CG Cons. Elec.

CG Power & Inds Sol.

Cummins

Engineers India

GE T&D

Havells

K E C Intl

L&T

Siemens

Solar Ind

Thermax

Va Tech Wab.

Voltas

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

ACC

Birla Corp.

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Inds.

India Cem

JK Lakshmi Ce

Ramco Cem

Orient Cem

Prism Johnson

Sagar Cements

Sanghi Inds.

Shree Cem

Ultratech

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Future Consumer

Godrej Cons.

GSK Cons.

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Lab

Marico

Nestle

Page Inds

Pidilite Ind.

1 Day (%)

-1.6

-2.2

0.9

-1.7

-2.8

-0.2

-1.9

-3.7

-2.2

0.4

1.0

-1.5

-1.0

-1.6

-0.6

1.8

-0.5

-1.6

0.0

0.6

-3.2

-3.3

0.1

-1.6

-3.1

-1.8

0.0

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

-1.4

0.3

-0.5

-0.7

0.8

0.7

-0.4

0.1

1.0

0.2

-1.9

0.3

-0.8

-0.1

0.2

3.0

0.6

0.7

-0.1

-0.3

1M (%)

0.7

-3.6

-3.7

2.4

-9.8

-2.1

-11.9

-11.8

-1.8

1.1

-0.9

4.2

-4.7

3.5

-0.5

-0.2

1.8

-5.4

-0.3

4.9

-9.2

-6.6

-8.3

-5.9

-7.5

-3.3

3.5

-7.2

-9.3

-0.3

-13.8

-5.1

4.4

-15.8

-4.8

5.5

11.7

4.9

0.9

8.6

-5.6

-5.0

0.7

-1.9

6.8

9.1

1.0

-1.3

10.1

-4.4

7.5

12M (%)

-4.4

-21.1

4.7

46.0

-19.3

-23.0

-31.8

15.1

-1.0

-13.1

-27.4

-8.2

5.3

6.1

75.7

19.0

-26.7

32.0

15.3

-29.6

37.2

-15.8

-13.7

-8.6

8.9

14.6

-35.2

-23.4

16.8

-23.6

-11.9

16.6

21.8

-18.2

-7.0

14.7

47.8

9.2

32.0

-3.8

74.9

13.4

11.2

53.6

3.7

2.3

-0.2

40.4

60.6

46.7

41.5

-24.5

47.4

46.2

65.1

24.6

15.6

36.2

-26.7

49.0

10.6

15 May 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

P&G Hygiene

Prabhat Dairy

United Brew

United Spirits

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Aurobindo

Biocon

Cadila

Cipla

Divis Lab

Dr Reddy’s

Fortis Health

Glenmark

Granules

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs

Jubilant Life

Lupin

Laurus Labs

Sanofi India

Shilpa Medicare

Strides Shasun

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Infrastructure

Ashoka Buildcon

IRB Infra.Devl.

KNR Construct.

Sadbhav Engg.

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics

Concor

Gateway Distriparks

Media

Dish TV

D B Corp

Den Net.

Ent.Network

Hathway Cab.

Hind. Media

HT Media

Jagran Prak.

Music Broadcast

PVR

Prime Focus

Siti Net.

Sun TV

Zee Ent.

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

1 Day (%)

-3.0

5.2

-1.0

-1.4

-1.0

-1.1

0.5

0.3

0.5

-0.1

0.6

-2.3

1.2

0.2

-2.5

-1.1

1.0

-1.6

-2.2

0.3

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

-3.5

0.5

0.1

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

2.9

-1.1

-0.6

-0.4

-1.7

0.1

-2.0

0.3

-3.9

-1.4

-2.4

-0.2

-1.5

-0.1

-1.1

-0.9

11.5

-2.6

-0.3

-0.6

1.6

1M (%)

-8.2

0.5

6.2

-8.2

-4.8

10.9

-22.0

-1.4

1.5

0.4

4.0

2.4

-3.4

-2.1

-13.5

-13.6

4.1

-3.5

4.6

-3.5

-4.0

-3.7

-5.5

-20.2

-7.6

2.9

1.1

-5.5

2.1

-4.2

-16.8

7.3

-5.7

-10.7

-11.4

-4.3

-2.9

-21.0

0.9

-4.4

-1.5

-6.6

7.4

-2.9

1.5

9.6

0.7

1.7

-5.5

3.5

12M (%)

12.0

49.4

32.7

47.0

-19.5

4.6

-33.8

-1.9

93.9

-19.4

1.8

87.0

-22.0

-28.6

-33.7

-35.3

0.7

29.1

8.8

-39.9

-13.7

16.4

-35.0

-49.4

-27.5

4.9

27.2

0.5

48.7

15.8

-31.0

18.2

-33.9

-27.8

-24.5

0.9

-13.9

-22.6

-23.4

-3.4

-14.2

5.2

-7.3

-18.6

-48.9

9.0

9.7

26.6

16.6

131.9

Company

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

Rain Industries

SAIL

Vedanta

Tata Steel

Oil & Gas

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Retail

Jubilant Food

PC Jeweller

Titan Co.

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

L&T Infotech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Utiltites

Coal India

CESC

JSW Energy

NHPC Ltd

NTPC

Power Grid

Tata Power

1 Day (%)

1.6

-3.1

-1.2

-8.9

-1.0

-1.6

0.6

-2.5

0.9

0.5

5.1

-1.6

0.7

-0.4

1.1

0.4

0.1

0.5

0.1

-0.4

-1.6

-11.6

-3.7

-6.5

-0.7

-2.9

0.7

-0.8

1.2

-1.5

0.1

1.1

-0.7

-2.3

-0.7

0.0

-0.1

-3.0

-1.1

-1.4

0.6

-0.2

-0.3

-0.9

-2.8

-1.4

2.5

0.9

0.0

1M (%)

6.6

-2.0

-7.3

-28.8

-5.0

-3.3

2.5

-3.5

-0.6

5.4

3.5

-4.3

-4.0

2.1

-8.5

-4.6

-3.1

7.7

2.7

-9.3

4.9

-2.1

-41.4

-6.5

27.1

-6.6

4.4

1.8

12.5

17.5

16.4

8.7

16.9

15.8

7.8

9.1

-0.5

-7.4

17.5

1.0

-7.0

-28.3

0.0

-5.5

1.8

-14.9

-0.7

0.4

5.8

-6.9

12M (%)

66.7

13.6

-8.8

139.0

20.4

19.4

48.2

41.4

-17.2

12.3

14.9

2.5

-10.0

-22.3

35.2

-11.1

-17.6

11.2

1.5

-1.7

45.8

147.4

-20.9

86.2

55.5

9.2

72.2

23.4

100.5

117.0

94.5

71.6

102.8

36.0

49.3

45.7

50.6

7.1

34.0

4.5

-15.6

-43.9

-5.5

-2.4

7.3

2.2

-11.7

8.2

1.4

-0.8

15 May 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

Others

Arvind

Avenue Super.

BSE

Castrol India

Coromandel Intl

Delta Corp

Interglobe

Indo Count

Info Edge

Kaveri Seed

Manpasand

MCX

Navneet Educat.

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

PI Inds.

Piramal Enterp.

Quess Corp

SRF

S H Kelkar

Tata Chemicals

Team Lease Serv.

Trident

UPL

V-Guard

1 Day (%)

-0.4

-2.1

-0.1

0.8

-0.8

-4.6

2.3

-2.5

1.5

-1.5

1.8

-0.9

4.1

6.8

-1.1

0.0

-2.0

-1.2

0.9

-0.3

-3.2

-3.0

-0.9

-1.1

1M (%)

4.0

-3.0

-2.5

-12.6

-15.7

-17.1

-18.7

-17.4

-3.1

-5.9

-3.3

2.4

-9.7

8.5

12.4

1.2

-5.1

12.3

6.5

-0.2

6.6

24.7

-16.5

-2.8

0.1

12M (%)

7.9

89.5

-16.8

-17.7

11.9

31.8

8.7

-59.9

45.0

-7.5

7.1

-29.6

-15.7

39.8

55.6

2.7

-6.0

40.4

25.7

-19.0

23.0

144.8

-29.8

-11.7

14.8

15 May 2018

THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

REPORT GALLERY

RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS

DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT GALLERY

Explanation of Investment Rating

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SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

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

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13 December 2016