11 June 2018
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Today’s top research theme
Consumer: Consumption demand set to pick up in FY19
HUVR, TTAN, BRIT, PAG remain our top picks
4QFY18 results for Consumer/retail companies under coverage were largely in
line with expectations. The outstanding performers for the quarter were HUVR,
PAGE, TITAN and UBBL. Visibility on growth is also high for these companies
going forward.
Disappointment (albeit marginal) on earnings in 4QFY18 came from Marico,
Emami (HMN), Future Consumer (FCL) and P&GHH. BRIT reported in line
numbers and outlook remains robust. Two themes are emerging in the
Consumer space (a) outlook on rural is improving quarter after quarter which
augurs very well for companies with high rural exposure or incrementally high
rural growth and (b) Titan and Pidilite are emerging as early and likely
significant beneficiaries of GST implementation.
Our top picks taking all of these factors into account are HUVR, Titan, BRIT and
PAGE.
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
35,444
-0.1
Nifty-50
10,768
0.0
Nifty-M 100
18,831
0.5
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,779
0.3
Nasdaq
7,646
0.1
FTSE 100
7,681
-0.3
DAX
12,767
-0.3
Hang Seng
12,166
-2.0
Nikkei 225
22,695
-0.6
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
76
-1.3
Gold ($/OZ)
1,299
0.2
Cu (US$/MT)
7,324
-0.1
Almn (US$/MT)
2,296
-0.3
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
67.5
0.6
USD/EUR
1.2
-0.3
USD/JPY
109.6
-0.2
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
7.9
-0.05
10 Yrs AAA Corp
8.8
-0.05
Flows (USD b)
8-Jun
MTD
FIIs
0.0
0.4
DIIs
0.1
0.4
Volumes (INRb)
8-Jun
MTD*
Cash
315
320
F&O
4,894
8,183
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
4.1
2.3
-10.9
YTD.%
3.9
10.8
-0.1
-1.2
3.9
-0.3
YTD.%
13.4
-0.3
1.6
1.8
YTD.%
5.7
-2.0
-2.8
YTDchg
0.6
0.9
YTD
0.2
7.7
YTD*
368
8,199
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Consumer
Sun Pharma
Tata Motors
Fuel Or Engines
Key Highlights
Consumption demand set to pick up in FY19
Halol resolution in sight; status changed to VAI
JLR’s May 2018 wholesales in-line at 48.8k units
GDP growth to remain sub-7% in FY19
Piping hot news
6 more state-run banks may come under PCA
Six more state-run banks are at risk of entering the Reserve Bank of India’s
prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, officials said. These include Punjab
National Bank, Union Bank of India and Syndicate Bank, they said, adding that
this may reduce the chances of the finance ministry’s plans to sell the good
loans of weak banks to stronger lenders coming to fruition.
Chart of the Day:
Fuel Or Engines (Economy): GDP growth to remain sub-7% in FY19
Key drivers of GDP growth since FY13 (percentage points)
Spending = consumption + investment
F = Forecasts
E = Sectoral break-up not yet available for FY18, thus our estimates
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), RBI, CEIC, MOSL
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.