Motilal Oswal Financial Services

30 August 2018

Market snapshot

Equities - India

Sensex

Nifty-50

Nifty-M 100

Equities-Global

S&P 500

Nasdaq

FTSE 100

DAX

Hang Seng

Nikkei 225

Commodities

Brent (US$/Bbl)

Gold ($/OZ)

Cu (US$/MT)

Almn (US$/MT)

Currency

USD/INR

USD/EUR

USD/JPY

YIELD (%)

10 Yrs G-Sec

10 Yrs AAA Corp

Flows (USD b)

FIIs

DIIs

Volumes (INRb)

Cash

F&O

38,723

11,692

19,827

2,914

8,110

7,563

12,562

11,083

22,848

1,207

6,073

2,147

70.6

1.2

111.7

7.9

8.7

29-Aug

-0.20

0.16

29-Aug

384

10,802

Chg .%

-0.4

0.5

Chg .%

0.6

1.0

-0.7

0.3

-0.1

0.2

Chg .%

1.9

0.5

-1.0

1.7

Chg .%

0.7

-0.1

0.6

1MChg

0.28

0.00

MTD

0.0

0.8

MTD*

360

9,242

YTD.%

13.7

11.0

-6.2

YTD.%

9.0

17.5

-1.6

-2.8

-5.3

0.4

YTD.%

15.3

-7.4

-15.7

-4.8

YTD.%

10.5

-2.5

-0.8

YTDchg

0.6

0.8

YTD

-0.2

10.7

YTD*

357

8,441

Today’s top research theme

Yes Bank: India’s new-age private sector bank buiding size,

getting leaner

We hosted Mr. Rana Kapoor MD & CEO of Yes Bank. Key takeaways:



Key strategic enablers during large bank growth phase

– 1] Comprehensive

product suite 2] Solution driven knowledge banking approach 3) Leadership in

technology 4) Prudent risk management 5] Expansive reach 6] Experienced

leadership 7] Vibrant Yes Bank brand



CASA market share has more than doubled to 1.5% over FY16-18 while

incremental loan market share during FY18 stood at 9.2%



60% of the book is linked to MCLR of which 2/3rd of the book is linked to 1yr

MCLR. Margins are thus expected to recover from 3QFY19



Credit cost has been under control over past several years and banks expects

RoE to remain in 20%-22% range after FY20

Research covered

Cos/Sector

AGIC: CEO Track

Takeaways

Key Highlights

Yes Bank | AU Small Finance Bank |Dabur India | Pidilite Industries |

TeamLease

Automobiles | Capital Goods and Electricals | Cement | Consumer |

AGIC:

Management Says

& Gas | Technology | Telecom | Midcaps/Others

Piping hot news

The rupee slipped to a record low of 70.64 against the dollar on Wednesday in intra-

currency trades and staged only a limited recovery to end the session at 70.59. The Indian

currency has now lost nearly 10% since January making it Asia’s worst performing currency.

It was possible, dealers said,…

Rupee slips to record closing low of 70.59

Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg

Chart of the Day: EcoKnowLedge – How sustainable is the leverage of Indian households?

Drivers of banks’ household loans during the past two decades

* Up to December 2017

Credit widening = No of accounts (volume); Credit deepening = Loan/account (Value)

Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, MOSL

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

The rupee slipped to a record low

of 70.64 against the dollar on

Wednesday in intra-currency

trades and staged only a limited

recovery to end the session at

70.59. The Indian currency has

now lost nearly 10% since January

making it Asia’s worst performing

currency…

Spencer's joins More & Future on Amazon's shopping list

Amazon is in early talks with Spencer's Retail to pick up a minority

stake in the food and grocery retail chain, according to two people

with knowledge of the matter, as the US online giant scours the

country for alliances to penetrate deeper into the market. The US

company is also in talks with the Aditya Birla Group on buying stakes

in its More chain of stores and is likely to partner with Samara Capital

and other investors to fully acquire the business…

Rupee slips to record closing

low of 70.59

RInfra sells Mumbai power

utility to Adani

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd’s

chairman Anil Ambani on

Wednesday completed the sale of

its Mumbai city power

distribution business to fellow

industrialist Gautam Adani for

₹18,800 crore. Though Reliance

Infra has sold one of its profitable

business ventures,…

Indian Oil earmarks Rs 22,000-

crore capex for FY19

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) today

said it has lined up Rs 22,000-

crore capex plan for the current

fiscal year and will commission

the Ennore-Manali LNG pipeline

on schedule by the end of the

year. Sanjiv Singh, the chairman

of the nation's largest oil

marketing company,…

Aditya Birla, Varde to set up

$1 billion joint venture to buy

stressed assets

Varde Partners Inc. and Aditya

Birla Capital Ltd. are creating a

joint venture to invest as much as

$1 billion in distressed assets in

India, according to people

familiar with the transaction, who

asked not to be identified

because the information is

private. The US investment firm

and Indian financial services

provider, helmed by billionaire

Kumar Mangalam Birla, are

expected to deploy this sum over

three years, one of the people

said. The venture, which will

scout for deals of up to $100

million, may be announced as

early as this week, the person

said…

Fuel retailers set to expand

network after four-year gap

Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOCL), Bharat

Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) and

Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd

(HPCL) are set to expand their

fuel retail network after a gap of

nearly four years. The three

state-run companies have an

ambitious plan to open a

combined nearly 50,000 fuel

outlets over the next three years,

said officials at IOCL…

99.3% of demonetised

currency returned: RBI

Over 99% of the ₹ 500 and ₹ 1000

that were withdrawn from

circulation in November 2016

were returned, the Reserve Bank

of India (RBI) said in its annual

report, released on Wednesday.

According to the report, after

verification and reconciliation,

the total value of the ₹ 500 and

₹,1000 as on November 8, 2016,…

30 August 2018

CEO Track

Yes Bank

Mr. Rana Kapoor

MD & CEO

India’s new-age private sector bank buiding size, getting leaner

We hosted Mr Rana Kapoor – MD & CEO of Yes Bank (YES) – as part of CEO Track at our

conference. Key takeaways:



YES aims to be India’s finest-quality large bank by 2025. It also targets to be among the

top five banks in the country.

Currently, YES is the fourth largest private sector bank in the country, with an asset

size of INR3t, incremental market share of 9.2% in FY18 (v/s 2.3% static market share),

a C/I ratio of 37.3% (third most profitable bank in the country), GNPA/NNPA of

1.31%/0.59%, 1,100+ branches, RoA>1.5% and RoE > 17% since 2010.

Key strategic enablers of growth: With (1) a comprehensive product suite, (2) a

solution-driven knowledge banking approach, (3) leadership in new-age technology,

(4) a prudent risk management framework, (5) expansive reach, (6) experienced

leadership and (7) a vibrant ‘Yes Bank’ brand, YES has all the necessary components of

growth in place.

The bank recorded a CASA CAGR of 51% over FY16-18; it has set a CASA mix target of

40% by FY20.

YES’ CASA market share more than doubled to 1.5% over FY16-18.

MSME forms 18.4% of total advances – implying healthy growth despite GST and

demon-related headwinds. Retail advances now form 14% of total advances (+400bp

YoY).

60% of the book is linked to MCLR, of which two thirds are linked to one-year MCLR.

Margin drivers: MCLR book re-pricing, momentum in CASA, stored value in SA rate,

apt position for a rising interest rate scenario, improving PSL compliance and reduced

cost of funds due to rating upgrade to AAA strengthen the bank’s margins profile.

Funding and liquidity profile: Total capital funds doubled in three years to INR470b. It

has healthy internal accruals with best-in-class RoE. Lending to better-rated

corporates is likely to result in lower capital consumption.

Increasing tenor of borrowings. Rising proportion of CASA, Retail TD, long-term

borrowing in the overall funding profile.

The bank prefers organic growth over inorganic growth.

Credit cost has been under control and lower than the guided range over the past

three years. RoEs are expected to remain stable in the range of 20% to 22% after FY20.

30 August 2018

AU Small Finance Bank

Mr. Sanjay Agarwal

MD & CEO

Retail banking – Unlimited opportunities

We hosted Mr Sanjay Agarwal – MD & CEO of AU Small Finance Bank – as part of CEO

Track at our conference. Key takeaways:



The bank platform has developed a strong pull among customers. AUBANK has laid a

strong focus on cross-sell, with a strategy to sell at least 3-4 products per customer.



Business mix will continue being dominated by vehicle loans, followed by SME/MSME

loans. Gold, housing and consumer durable loans are also seen as interesting business

opportunities. Product selection is based on interest rates, which typically range from

13 to 15%.



AUBANK has developed innovative savings products with monthly interest payouts.



To enrich customer experience, the bank has implemented paperless branches even

for normal transactions like draft issuance and cheque deposit.



The bank has drawn up a '4D' strategy to grow its business – Data, Distribution, Digital,

and Delight (in the form of higher interest rates on SA account, monthly payouts,

extended banking hours, etc.).



AUBANK targets to fund 75% of the balance sheet by deposits over the next two years.



Digital and Automation: The bank is scaling up distribution/financial inclusion through

Digital – the ‘AU Abhi’ app for self on boarding and ‘AU Buss app’ for lead aggregation

are some examples.



AUBANK sees headwinds in the form of (a) competitive intensity – irrational behavior

in some product segments, (b) customer mindset, (c) RBI’s plan and roadmap for SFBs

(d) push for one bank theory and (e) execution.



The adoption of “Phygital” strategy – a mix of physical and digital – is likely to create

low-cost distribution.



Way forward



By Mar’22, AUBANK aims to build a retail bank by leveraging 4Ds.



It aims to employ a customer-centric business model.



The target is to consistently grow assets by 30-35% per annum; assets targeted to

reach at USD10b by 2022 – INR8b of loan assets.



Funded by the granular deposit base, deposits are targeted to fund 70-75% of assets.

The aim is to become the most eligible SFB to be promoted as a universal bank.

30 August 2018

Dabur India

Mr. Sunil Duggal

CEO

Rural demand revival trend gaining steam

Dabur poised to benefit as a result of its own initiatives as well

We hosted Mr Sunil Duggal – CEO of Dabur India – as part of CEO Track at our conference.

Key takeaways:



Management estimates ~14% CAGR for consumer companies up to 2025 – rural India

is estimated to lead growth with ~15% CAGR. Rural growth could have been even

higher if not for the likely higher pace of urbanization over the next few years.

Urbanization has been slow over the past 10 years (+400bp to ~34%). Rural accounts

for ~65% of the population, but only around 35% of FMCG sales.



In consumer staples, management expects the 172m households in the middle- and

lower-income groups to be the major driver of growth. 69% of this population lives in

rural India.



Rural customers are brand savvy, are trading up and willing to explore. These

customers are street-smart, value-seeking and social. In fact, sales of mid-level brands

in these regions have been higher than those of the perceived ‘rural brands’.



The gap between rural and urban growth has widened to ~300bp in recent quarters,

barring 1QFY19 when growth converged.



Why is Dabur well placed and what has it done?

a) The company has achieved an overall reach of 6.4m outlets, of which 1.04m is

direct (targeted 1.2m by end-FY19).

b) Dabur reaches 42,000 villages in India, which is easily among the highest

compared to peers. In 2012, when it had commenced the ‘Project Double,’ the

company reached 12,000 villages. Rural salesforce of ~1,400, too, is among the

highest.

c) The company also has a network of 366 super-stockists, 3,360 stockists and 10,266

sub-stockists.

d) Project Buniyaad aims for better utilization of the company’s reach.

e) From 17 SKUs in rural two years ago, Dabur has 20 SKUs now, and the aim is to

take it to 30. Similarly, the number of FMCG brands sold has increased from 7.3 to

8.3 over the past year.

f) Inventory has come down from 33 days in FY16 to 17 days in 1QFY19.



Key segments that are likely to be leveraged for higher rural thrust are home care,

affordable skin care and juices. Punjab – the most prosperous rural state – has healthy

juice consumption in rural areas compared to mainly drinks and carbonated

beverages.



Urban will be an important area of growth as well, particularly with products like

juices and the offer for more healthy products across categories.

30 August 2018

Pidilite Industries

Mr. Bharat Puri

Pioneering category creation

Employing a combination of Core, Growth and Pioneer categories to fuel

growth

We hosted Mr Bharat Puri – MD of Pidilite Industries – as part of CEO Track at our

conference. Key takeaways:



By 2030, 40% of India’s population will live in cities. Management believes that

Pidilite’s brands have a long runway to grow as urbanization picks up, particularly in

tier 2/3 cities.



Pidilite’s strengths – (a) passionate about pioneering, (b) deep insight, (c) holistic

brand management, (d) persistent innovation and (e) teams working together with

passion.



The three categories of growth are Core, Growth and Pioneer.

A) Core: Targeted at 1-2x GDP growth. The strategy is to increase penetration,

innovate and fuel premiumization. Fevikwik’s reach of 4m outlets is already

among the best in the Indian FMCG space. Change in communication in such

brands is also important, and advertising and communication are now being

targeted toward females as they end up doing most of the minor repair work at

homes in smaller towns. Innovation (variants launched over the last three years

are expected to contribute around a third of sales growth) and premiumization

(which is being witnessed across the Fevicol range like water resistant, fast setting

and anti-bubble, among many others) are the other focus areas.

B) Growth: The company is aiming to create new categories (like water proofing

brand Dr-Fixit), initially creating awareness and then with holistic brand

management (expanding portfolio and improving communication accordingly).

C) Pioneering businesses in India: The acquisition of CIPY (which is into specialized

floor painting) and the tie-up with Jowat (which is into hot-melt technologies for

readymade furniture where PIDI intends to have as high share eventually as

custom-made furniture) are some examples of the company’s initiatives toward

this.



Key factors that will enable growth: (1) All-encompassing use of digital, which is likely

to provide further competitive edge and increase efficiency in areas like distribution.

(2) Sales and distribution excellence using two sets of salesforce – one to serve traders

and the other to educate customers. (3) Continue to encourage the ‘Preneurial’ culture

– combining entrepreneurial and professional cultures to develop a culture that

‘punishes not trying rather than punishing trying and failing’.



In most of Pidilite’s new products, it plans to attain critical mass in 2-4 years.



With low cost of labor, India and Africa are among the few markets where custom-

made furniture is cheaper than ready-made furniture. The non-standardized

preference of Indian consumers is also a factor favoring custom-made furniture.

Nevertheless, tie-ups like Jowat give the company a promising entry into ready-made

furniture as well.

30 August 2018

Thematic

Presentation

Mr. Manish Sabharwal

Chairman

TeamLease Services

India employment and education outlook

We hosted Mr. Manish Sabharwal, Chairman of TeamLease Services, as part of CEO Track

at our conference. Following are the key takeaways from his presentation.



While (lack of) job creation is a hotly discussed topic in the Indian context over the last

few years, the problem is not one of jobs, but one of wages / productivity. In the

context of the same, solution requires focused attention towards four areas:

formalisation, urbanisation, industrialisation, financialisation and human capital



Productivity is set in a low level equilibrium of low wage and low productivity. This is a

problem that takes a longer term solution and 10 1-year solutions will not work.



Problem with the “Enterprise”: There are 63mn Enterprises in India. Only 6.7m have

paid any form of indirect tax, 12mn don’t have an office and only 1mn paid PF. Only

18,500 firms have paidup capital of more than INR100m. An example of the

productivity skew is the IT sector - 0.7% of employment but produces 8% of GDP



Average life expectancy of Fortune 500 company today is 14 years, it was 64 in 1955.



Two biggest assassinators of productivity in Indi a are Farm and Self-employment.



The problem with informal labor: Indians have redefined their aspiration from

minimum wages to living wages. This means that while there are plenty of jobs

available at the lowest strata, with minimal skill requirements, here are no takers.

However, in the informal sector, gross wage = net wage, with the PF and ESIC benefits.

As a result of this arbitrage, formal sector is therefore incompetitively positioned.



Wages don’t go up in an economy till you run out of farm labor. This seems to have

been defied in the Indian context, and the only reason is the difference between real

and nominal wages. Urbanization is limited to a very few cities in the country

compared to other economies in the world. As a result, the disparity in nominal wages

between urbanized and other cities does not count for much. Though wages here keep

going up, oversupplied farm labor coexists.



There is some discontinuity seen towards formalization - 30mn new provident fund

accounts got added. These are likely jobs that existed as informal jobs and got

formalized.

30 August 2018

‘Management Says’

Key takeaways from Motilal Oswal Annual Global Investor Conference 2018

Company

Takeaway

A. No impact of new axle load for CV industry; expect 12-15% growth in

FY19.

A. No impact on demand from change in axle norms. Net increase in axle

capacity post revised schedule is just 12-13% v/s 20% expected earlier.

B. Expect Aug-18 wholesales to be healthy, despite uncertainties related to

new axle norms. Exposure to Kerala is just 500 vehicles a month.

C. Targeting stable RoCEs across cycles at 20-25% and debt:EBITDA of 1x,

driven by reducing cyclicality by ramping-up nascent businesses.

D. Capacity is being debottlenecked and is prepared from strong growth in

FY20. Capacity would be ~180k for M&HCV and ~72 for LCVs.

E. Discount per truck is steady (v/s 1QFY19) at ~INR0.35m (15-17%).

A. JLR: Continued impact in Aug-18 from WLTP in EU/UK and duty-related

discounts in China. Demand should normalize from Sep-18 in both these

geographies.

B. JLR: Expect positive impact of duty reduction in China from 2HFY19, with

market share gains from competition.

C. JLR: Very high focus on cost reduction; appointed very senior level

executive to focus just on cost. Expect further details in due course.

D. JLR: Order book at 5.5 months for I-Pace and 2-3 months for PHEV of

RR/RR Sport. These models are yet to be launched in the US and other

global markets.

E. JLR: FCF negative for FY19, but lower negative FCF than FY18; FCF to

break-even from FY20 and turn positive in FY21.

F. Witnessed weakness initially in retail demand post new axle load

regulations. However, demand has come back to normalcy from mid-

August.

Impact

+ ve

+ve

+ ve

+ve

+ ve

- ve

+ ve

Automobiles

Ashok Leyland

Tata Motors

+ ve

Company

Takeaway

A. Witnessing a broad pickup in end-consumption demand, with higher

growth seen in non-urban areas v/s urban areas.

B. No change in payment terms from the government on defense orders –

Capital Goods and

continues receiving 15% advances and balance on milestones.

C. Refinery orders likely to be placed in FY20 are a) BPCL Numaligarh, b)

Electricals

Chennai Petroleum refinery, c) Bina Refinery expansion and d) Gail

Kakinada Petrochemical plant. The West Coast refinery could take two

years, as land acquisition is an issue.

A. Maintained sales growth guidance of 15% YoY in FY19 and margin to be

flat YoY.

B. Not seen any change in the payment terms from the government on

Bharat Electronics

defense orders – continue to receive 15% advances and balance on

milestones.

Impact

+ve

30 August 2018

Engineers India

Havells

C. Expect Akash order for INR54b to also be finalized in FY19 – waiting for

CCS approval. The QR SAM order is likely to be finalized only in FY21.

D. Not much progress on the TCS and BMS programs of the Army.

A. Expect HPCL Barmer order to be finalized by the end of the month. It

would be worth ~INR33-35b for EIL with a mix of EPC and consulting

orders

B. Orders likely to be placed in FY20 are a) BPCL Numaligarh, b) Chennai

Petroleum refinery, c) Bina Refinery expansion and d) Gail Kakinada

Petrochemical plant. The West Coast refinery could take two years, as

land acquisition is an issue.

C. Beginning to see a pickup in enquiries for large-sized contracts in the

Middle East post the rise in crude prices. Currently, mid-sized projects are

being awarded in the UAE.

A. Witnessing a broad pickup in end-market demand, with higher growth

seen in non-urban areas v/s urban areas.

B. Four key steps being implemented in Lloyd: (1) Premiumization of the

portfolio, (2) Investment in the brand, shop display, (3) Getting into large-

format stores and (4) Investment in manufacturing.

C. Price hikes were taken in AC in June to offset the impact of INR

depreciation and RM cost increase. Competitors have not done the same

– price difference with competitors is low as a result.

D. Aim is to take market share and grow in all categories profitably – this

would not be at the cost of margins.

Takeaway

+ve

-ve

+ ve

+ve

+ ve

Impact

Company

Cement

A. The company plans to expand into the wall tiles business through a JV in

Morbi.

B. Sales mix for the company is 60% retail and 40% institutional.

C. The company has a dealer network of 1,500.

D. The sanitary ware segment grew by 11.5%, while the faucet segment grew

by 19% YoY in 1QFY19.

A. Kajaria took two price hikes of ~2% – one in 1QFY19 and other in 2QFY19.

B. The company has launched large-format GVTs, which earn better margins.

C. Sales mix for the company is 75% retail and 25% institutional.

D. Kajaria has 1,400 dealers, of which 10-12% are exclusive dealers. The

company plans to increase the proportion of exclusive dealers to 20% in

the next two years.

Takeaway

+ ve

Impact

Cera Sanitaryware

Kajaria Ceramics

Company

Consumer

Ongoing drop in copra costs is unlikely to result in pricing intervention for the

next few months. Nevertheless, if costs drop significantly further, they will reduce

MRPs. This augurs well for margins.

+ ve

Marico

B. Parachute Aloe Vera has gained traction and is likely to be rolled out

across the country.

C. Foods is clocking INR1.25b annual sales and is likely to be INR2b in FY20.

Soups and meal replacement are also expected to boost sales.

D. Adspend is expected to pick up to around 10% in FY19. EBITDA margins

are likely to be around 17-18%.

30 August 2018

United Spirits

E. Saffola is unlikely to resume growth trajectory in FY19. In an effort to grow

the lower end variants like Saffola Tasty, there has been some

cannibalization of premium variants like Saffola Gold and Saffola Total, an

issue the company says will take time to address.

A. Opening up of the Uttar Pradesh market is a positive for industry participants.

B. Raw material outlook continues to be benign. There could be an increase

in ENA costs by the end of the year though.

From a ‘hands off, eyes off’ approach towards popular brands in states

where this business has been franchised, the company has moved to ‘

hands off, eyes on’ approach in order to prevent any material loss of

market share by the end of the franchise period of around 5 years.

D. In a bid to protect its share, there have been pricing actions from Pernod,

which, in our view, could restrict industry profitability for FY19.

E. After effective price increases in 18 states amounting to a blended

increase of 1.8% in FY18, there may not be a similar price increase in FY19.

Takeaway

-ve

+ ve

+ve

Unclear

- ve

Impact

Company

Financials – Bank

A. PCA banks are not letting go off AAA-rated clients.

B. Borrower has become very cautious after Feb 12 circular and prefers to

work with a few lenders as compared to 20 lenders earlier.

C. Difference between the LAP yields and home loan yields has come down

to 75bp v/s 200bp earlier.

D. Lot of construction in the tier 2 and 3 cities is self-construction.

E. Bank has achieved 20% penetration on its deposit customer base of 240m

in the credit card business.

- ve

-ve

+ve

Impact

+ ve

-ve

Axis Bank

Takeaway

A. Corporate lending has a lot of opportunities, but banks have become

cautious on big-ticket loans.

B. Credit card business is a natural oligopoly in any country with approx. 4

Life Insurance

to 5 credit card issuers having the majority share.

C. Credit life penetration is very low in the country and is expected to grow

as more and more life insurers start pushing the product.

A. For the company, banca channel has grown faster than agency channel as

commission to agents has not been attractive over the last couple of

years.

B. Post completion of 5 years, if the ULIP Policies lapse, then it can be

revived within two years after the lapsation.

SBI Life Insurance Co.

C. Over the next 2-3 years, individual protection will outgrow group credit

Ltd

life.

D. Currently, the regulator is concerned about mis-selling rather than

regulating margins or commissions.

E. According to the company, digital is the most expensive channel.

Company

30 August 2018

Company

NBFC

ABCL

CIFC

GRUH

HDFCAMC

Takeaway

A. Supply-side challenges in affordable housing prevail.

B. Expect demand impact of 4-5% on new vehicles due to new axle norms.

C. MF Industry AUM to grow to INR50t in next 5 years.

A. Impact of Ind-AS on NBFC and consol. net worth is minimal.

B. Expect significant VNB margin (post overrun) improvement in FY19.

C. Will expand to 84 branches in housing finance by year-end (70 currently).

A. Only 25% of HCVs to be impacted by new axle load norms. Expect

demand impact of 4-5% on new vehicles. Axle load notification for

existing vehicles came in August.

B. Margins in vehicle finance dipped due to mix change. However, yields are

incrementally up ~50bp now.

C. Resolution in LAP has been slow, but asset quality has been steady.

A. Sluggish supply of affordable housing remains a key issue for growth.

B. Prepayments have come down in FY19 compared to FY18

C. Margins should be largely stable as the company is sacrificing growth for

margins.

A. Strong distribution with presence in 134 places in B30 cities.

B. Sourcing contribution to remain largely stable in the near term.

C. Will focus on similar product mix over next 2 years.

Takeaway

A. The diagnostic industry is poised to grow at 12-15% CAGR over the next

3-4 years on the back of increased per capita income, changing lifestyle,

and higher diagnosis required by doctors before providing treatment.

B. Increased automation and a gradual shift in the mindset of patients

from star doctors to the brand of hospitals have been reducing the

dependence of hospitals on selected doctors, and thus, lowering

operational cost for hospitals.

A. Aster has planned to double bed capacity in GCC from 875 to 1,500 over

the next three years. Also, it has planned to double bed capacity in India

over the next five years.

B. Revenue growth in GCC region would be led by patient addition (~15%),

new hospitals (~5%), price hike (~4-5%) and case mix change (4-5%).

C. Capacity utilization in GCC is lower at 52% due to start of hospitals at

Sharjah and Qatar. Adjusting for the same, utilization would be 60%.

Aster intends to increase utilization to 75-80% over the next three years.

A. DLPL maintained its guidance of 15-16% revenue growth and 25-26%

EBITDA margin led by increased test per patient and increase in patient

addition.

B. Average price CAGR has been 1% over the past 8-10 years, despite a vast

improvement in the service levels by DLPL.

C. Though pricing may be relatively low in Ayushman Bharat Scheme, it

would increase awareness, and thus, drive volume growth over medium

to long term.

Impact

+ ve

- ve

+ ve

- ve

+ ve

Impact

+ ve

Company

Healthcare

+ ve

Aster DM

Dr Lal Path labs

30 August 2018

Company

Takeaway

Impact

Metals

A. Approval of West Bengal Regulator is pending for the demerger to go

through. Approval in expected to happen in a couple of months and listing

is likely in a further a couple of months thereafter.

B. Spencer focus is shifting to growth. It has entered online business in the

areas where it operates. It expects to double revenue in four years, driven

by SSG growth of 9% and remaining through store addition. Not looking at

selling stake in Spencer.

A. Realization is likely to fall by less than INR1,500/t in Q2. While, cost will

increase due to increase in iron ore cost. Margins will thus be impacted in

Q2. However, realizations have rebounded earlier than expected which is

positive.

B. India steel production guidance of 5.5-5.7mt in FY19

C. Plan to deleverage by INR40b in FY19 and INR60b in FY20

A. Technically can blend 50% domestic coal, but it has not started yet due to

non-availability of domestic coal

B. Looking at in-organic opportunities but selectively – only at assets where

the generation cost is amongst the lowest quartile of India’s cost curve

C. For the electric vehicle venture, has hired a veteran auto expert, who is

also building the team for the venture. However, land, partner and

technology details are still in process.

A. CERC draft norms are likely sometime in Q3

B. Pay negotiation with non-executives is likely to be completed next week.

Once done, will file with CERC for pass-through of increase in employee cost

C. National merit order will be positive for NTPC

D. Parki coal mine will be capitalization in December. Regulatory norms of

70:30 Debt:Equity will apply. Captive coal production will increase from

2.5mt in FY18 to 8mt in FY19, driven by Pakri.

E. Commercialization of Lara, Kudgi and Meja is expected in September

Takeaway

Impact

CESC

JSPL

JSW Energy

NTPC

Company

Oil & Gas

ONGC

A. Oil production is likely to remain stagnant, while gas production should

increase.

B. Further restructuring may happen this year.

C. Capex guided at INR320b for FY19.

A. Another storage tank can take nameplate capacity to 19.5mmtpa in next

3-4 years at Dahej.

B. Expect utilization at Kochi to improve with completion of the Kochi-

Mangalore pipeline.

C. Terms for Bangladesh LNG terminal are under negotiation.

Petronet

30 August 2018

Company

Takeaway

Impact

Technology

A. Microsoft is working closely to roll out Azure. Hence, a further uptick can

be seen. Moreover, internal IT (Microsoft office) projects are also given

to Mindtree now, making strong traction from the top account.

B. Demand scenario has improved drastically and base has been expanding.

Mindtree will now target on increasing revenue to USD 50m+ from top 5

accounts.

C. Further uptick will be seen in margins, with incremental expansion likely

every year from FY18 to FY20.

A. Microsoft is working closely to roll out Azure. Hence, a further uptick can

be seen. Moreover, internal IT (Microsoft office) projects are also given

to Mindtree now, making strong traction from the top account.

B. Demand scenario has improved drastically and base has been expanding.

Mindtree will now target on increasing revenue to USD 50m+ from top 5

accounts.

C. Further uptick will be seen in margins, with incremental expansion likely

every year from FY18 to FY20.

A. Direct segment saw good traction in BFSI, logistics and healthcare; within

BFSI, digital deals from consumer banking and wealth management

remain the key focus area.

B. Good traction seen from Blackstone portfolio, with 25% of deal wins

(direct channel) coming from the same. Huge potential ahead as

currently Blackstone portfolio companies spend USD 1.5b.

C. 70% of incremental deal wins are coming from digital side of the

business. Overall huge shift is seen in spending pattern from enterprise

to digital among clients.

Takeaway

+ ve

Impact

LTI

Mindtree

Mphasis

Company

Telecom

A. Traditional Services: Expect 3-4% revenue growth in FY19; EBITDA margin

to be in the range of 29-31%.

B. Growth Services: Expect 30% revenue growth to continue in FY19 and for

the next three years. Expect negative EBITDA to halve in 2QFY19, turn

breakeven in 3Q and positive in 4QFY19. However, EBITDA will remain

negative in FY19.

C. Innovation Segment: Expect USD50m investments in FY19. This should

taper off from FY20. Expect to reach USD150m revenue by FY21.

D. ATM business: Management considers the business as non-core and will

not be investing further. It is rather evaluating opportunities to monetize

the same.

E. Expect Data business to reach EBITDA margin of 23-25% in the next three

years.

F. F) Company is awaiting Govt. approval for merging TTSL’s enterprise

business. Should take 6-9 months post approval. So, the merger is likely

to conclude in next 12 months.

+ ve

Tata Communication

30 August 2018

Company

Takeaway

Impact

Midcaps/Others

A. The company has best-in-class margins in the soda ash business on

account of high utilization levels (97% in FY18) and captive production of

raw materials like limestone.

B. The focus would be on apt capital allocation – neither leverage the

business beyond 1:1 debt-equity ratio nor become a zero-debt company.

C. The global soda ash supply demand situation is expected to remain tight

with demand growing at 2.5% per annum and no massive expansion of

capacities in sight. GHCL has taken a price hike of 5% in soda ash in the

last 4-6 months.

D. The company, however, expects pressure in the home textile segment

because of oversupply situation. However, China’s own consumption is on

the rise. As a result, competition from there is expected to subside.

E. There are a couple of headwinds in the home textile business: viz. 50%

increase in MSP of cotton and US trying to challenge export incentives

under WTO.

A. Cattle feed is expected to continue delivering a steady margin. There is

even a possible improvement of 2-3% due to cost saving over the next 2-3

years.

B. In the animal feed business, the company has more or less safeguarded

margins with a pass-through raw material cost mechanism.

C. The company has witnessed revenue CAGR of 25% over the last five years

in the crop protection business.

D. The company’s crop protection business benefits from its dominance in

certain niches, which enables a high EBIT margin of 23.5% and RoCE of

34%.

A. The company expects FY19 revenue to grow at 7-9% and EBITDA margin

to expand by 80-100bp.

B. Growth in core branded textile business to be driven by a continued focus

on product & service innovations and asset-light franchise-based network

expansion model of mini TRS stores. Already opened 101 stores and

expected to open another 200 by 2020.

C. Branded Apparel business to continue growing at a mid-teen to high-teen

rate, led by scaling of power brands and supported by new customer

segments – Ethnix and Next Look.

D. The company expects profitable growth momentum in engineering (of

tools & hardware) and auto components businesses. The focus would be

to unlock value at an opportune time at right value.

A. In the outbound travel business, market share of organized players stands

at 20-25%, of which the company holds 5-6% market share. The company

thus has huge scope to capitalize on this opportunity.

B. Domestic and online business will turn positive in FY19.

C. Destination Management Specialist (DMS) business, which was acquired

last year, is expected to turn EBITDA positive by FY19 itself, as against

earlier expectation of FY20. Currently losses in the DMS business have

reduced by 70%.

D. Company has successfully pared down its debt by INR1.94b and has plans

to further deleverage the balance sheet by way of available cash on

books.

+ ve

GHCL

Neutral

-ve

+ ve

+ve

+ ve

Godrej Agrovet

Raymond

+ ve

+ve

+ ve

Thomas Cook

+ve

30 August 2018

Company

TTK Prestige

Takeaway

A. The company’s own stores account for 16-17% of revenue, E-commerce

accounts for 9%, modern retail for 20%, CSD for 5% and traditional

stores for 52%-59%.

B. Post-acquisition of Hornwood, the company suffered due to Brexit.

However, it is now recovering. TTK has brought about some changes in

Hornwood such as adding an online platform and introducing a new

pressure cooker line.

C. The company is looking to expand its product portfolio inorganically

into segments such as geysers and fans. Fans and geysers’ market size is

10x that of kitchen appliances. Hence, the company could evaluate

regional players for any potential acquisition.

D. Cleaning solutions to account for INR4b by FY22.

Impact

+ ve

30 August 2018

In conversation

1. We are cautiously optimistic on demand, says Pidilite



Bharat Puri, MD, Pidilite Industries said that we are cautiously optimistic. “While

demand is good what the new normal is; frankly the next two-three quarters is

going to tell you that,” he said. Talking about numbers, he said, “The inflation is

always the single biggest dampener for growth in any emerging market and that

is true for ours. So that is note of caution one. Note of caution two is normally

fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), consumer goods tend to be at 1-1.5 times

gross domestic product (GDP)growth.” “If that continues as GDP growth comes

in at the 7-7.5 percent mark then most FMCGs looking at double digit growth

would still be a reality,” he added.

2. No immediate plan to sell stake in Sadbhav Infra, says

Sadbhav Engineering



Nitin Patel, ED, Sadbhav Engineering said that there is no immediate plan to sell

stake in Sadbhav Infra. “The business model of Sadbhav Infra is to own the

highway concession and assets basically. So obviously, the churning of the assets

under Sadbhav Infra is a part and parcel of the regular business of the company

and at Sadbhav Infra level, there is no immediate plan to have any kind of stake

sale. So what basically company is always looking to churn the asset at

appropriate level,” said Patel.

30 August 2018

From the think tank

1. Is the USD ready to turn lower?



Whatever you may think of Trump’s integrity, style, smarts or looks, there is no

doubt that he has brought a cat amongst the pigeons on trade. And, given that

the US is the largest buyer of goods from everywhere, his approach, like that of

large buyers in any industry, is certainly sound. Give me what I want or else…

Of course, his pathetic “Art of the Deal” approach, where you begin with

outrageous demands to ultimately get an acceptable deal, unsurprisingly, isn’t

cutting any ice in global geopolitics where poker is eaten before breakfast.

Nonetheless, Germany, in particular, has quietened down, since it cannot afford

to have its car sales to the US threatened.

2. Dark clouds gather as tech stockpiles hit pre-crisis levels



Storm clouds are brewing over the global technology industry. A host of

hardware companies, including Apple Inc, Samsung Electronics Co, Foxconn

Technology Group and Intel Corp are sitting on inventory stockpiles not seen

since the financial crisis a decade ago. And it comes amid a possible US-China

trade war; likely monetary tightening by the Fed; more expensive growth in

China’s consumer economy; and a long-standing sense that we’re in a tech

bubble.

3. Is slash and burn the new norm in Global Trade?



Is slash and burn (S&B) becoming the new norm in global trade? Until now, S&B

remained limited to clearing land, especially for temporary agriculture. Two

unrelated developments on 27 August suggests that it is going to be replicated

for striking new trade deals and for slashing existing legal arrangements, which

encased international trade rules. In both cases, the principal protagonist for

implementing the S&B method is the same country: the world’s largest trading

member, à la the US.

30 August 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

Valuation snapshot

Company

Reco

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Buy

Ashok Ley.

Buy

Bajaj Auto

Buy

Bharat Forge

Buy

Bosch

Neutral

CEAT

Buy

Eicher Mot.

Buy

Endurance Tech. Buy

Escorts

Neutral

Exide Ind

Buy

Hero Moto

Neutral

M&M

Buy

Maruti Suzuki

Buy

Motherson Sumi Buy

Tata Motors

Buy

TVS Motor

Neutral

Aggregate

Banks - Private

AU Small Finance Buy

Axis Bank

Buy

DCB Bank

Neutral

Equitas Hold.

Buy

Federal Bank

Buy

HDFC Bank

Buy

ICICI Bank

Buy

IndusInd

Buy

J&K Bank

Buy

Kotak Mah. Bk

Neutral

RBL Bank

Buy

South Indian

Buy

Yes Bank

Buy

Aggregate

Banks - PSU

BOB

Buy

BOI

Neutral

Canara

Neutral

Indian Bk

Buy

PNB

Neutral

SBI

Buy

Union Bk

Neutral

Aggregate

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap Buy

Bajaj Fin.

Neutral

Capital First

Buy

Cholaman.Inv.&Fn Buy

GRUH Fin.

Neutral

HDFC

Buy

HDFC Stand. Life Buy

ICICI Pru Life

Buy

Indiabulls Hsg

Buy

L&T Fin Holdings Buy

LIC Hsg Fin

Neutral

MAS Financial

Buy

CMP

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E

862

132

2689

665

20037

1417

28219

1504

891

290

3240

982

9364

310

262

558

946

149

3223

747

19280

1588

34111

1691

988

314

3446

1084

10805

388

360

548

-4

-2

27.6

5.4

151.3

17.7

469.8

64.0

799.6

29.1

39.5

8.2

185.1

41.0

266.7

8.2

22.9

13.9

29.3

6.6

153.9

23.5

584.2

76.1

966

37.1

52.5

10.6

193.4

48.3

311.2

10.2

30.1

15.6

36.3

8.7

174.6

29.3

712.6

99.2

1,238

49.1

65.9

12.8

219.0

55.5

409.2

14.6

38.2

22.8

-1.5

23.9

7.3

34.9

-0.7

-31.5

27.0

23.8

88.0

0.4

9.5

49.8

7.3

5.9

15.7

18.7

15.2

6.2

23.4

1.7

33.2

24.3

19.0

20.9

27.8

32.8

29.1

4.5

17.8

16.7

24.4

31.3

11.6

18.6

23.8

30.5

13.5

24.5

22.0

30.4

28.1

32.3

25.5

21.4

13.2

14.8

31.5

44.0

26.9

46.1

24.9

31.2

24.6

17.8

37.7

42.7

22.2

35.3

51.7

22.6

35.4

17.5

23.9

35.1

38.0

11.4

40.0

25.4

29.4

19.9

17.5

28.3

34.3

18.6

29.2

40.5

17.0

27.4

16.8

20.3

30.1

30.6

8.7

35.8

21.4

51.9

32.7

18.3

32.4

13.8

26.2

34.5

23.3

8.3

34.7

31.1

10.6

15.4

26.9

12.6

18.7

14.7

10.2

39.2

36.4

29.9

47.6

14.7

19.2

54.8

41.9

68.8

33.1

12.0

15.7

11.6

25.0

5.0

5.4

4.1

6.7

6.1

2.2

10.9

9.7

3.6

4.6

5.5

3.9

6.8

7.0

0.9

9.2

3.9

9.2

2.7

2.0

2.4

1.3

5.1

2.1

4.8

0.5

4.9

4.0

0.6

3.3

3.7

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.6

1.3

0.4

0.9

3.5

11.1

2.5

4.5

19.3

5.2

6.1

2.9

3.6

3.3

2.1

4.7

4.4

4.7

3.7

5.7

5.5

2.0

8.5

8.2

3.0

4.1

4.9

3.5

6.0

0.8

7.8

3.5

6.7

2.5

1.8

2.2

1.2

3.8

2.1

4.2

0.5

4.3

3.6

0.6

2.8

3.1

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.7

1.2

0.4

0.9

2.9

9.2

2.2

3.7

15.8

4.5

5.2

2.5

3.2

2.8

1.9

4.2

17.0

23.7

24.2

18.8

15.3

10.3

35.2

21.0

18.3

12.9

33.8

14.2

18.5

19.5

10.1

25.1

15.5

13.8

0.5

10.9

1.4

8.3

17.9

6.8

16.5

3.8

12.5

11.6

6.6

17.7

10.4

15.9

25.1

22.1

21.7

17.0

11.2

32.7

22.0

19.3

14.9

31.1

14.5

19.5

21.2

10.1

23.6

16.3

14.9

7.8

10.8

7.1

9.1

16.6

6.2

19.4

6.7

11.8

12.3

5.7

19.5

11.6

729

657

174

158

2078

341

1907

1288

641

366

760

670

170

175

110

2400

355

2250

100

1400

700

444

-2

10.2

1.1

8.0

0.9

4.8

67.8

11.1

60.2

3.8

32.5

15.1

1.9

18.4

14.0 19.8 -79.5 37

40.8 71.1

20.1 35.9 -92.8 1,705 79.2 590.8

9.5 11.2 13.8 18.9 18.2 21.8

4.9

9.7 -82.3 427.2 99.5 170.9

5.8

7.9

-1.3 22.8 35.2 17.0

79.2 94.9 19.4 16.8 19.9 30.7

9.9 20.8 -34.3 -10.8 110.5 30.8

81.8 108.2 25.2 36.0 32.2 31.7

6.5

7.8

74.1 19.7 14.5

37.2 45.7 21.3 14.2 22.9 39.6

20.6 28.0 27.3 36.3 35.6 42.3

1.7

3.9 -25.5 -9.7 134.2 9.6

23.8 30.7 26.3 29.0 29.2 19.9

-1.3 30.7 43.1 35.1

19.6

8.3

44.2

53.4

8.0

30.5

3.5

Loss

-10.4

35.9

34.3

35.5

21.9

6.2

23.7

-3.8

31.5

29.5

3.0

27.5

22.7

Loss

22.4

44.5

33.4

20.8

25.5

10.1

22.6

2.4

18.0

74.7

14.3

27.7

67.9

62.7

129.2

66.1

286.2

291.2

34.8

32.2

26.0

18.9

13.1

19.4

22.5

8.4

19.0

17.4

18.7

25.3

12.5

0.0

36.6

68.8

19.6

23.2

68.8

46.1

84.3

33.9

14.2

27.4

13.2

31.9

147

283

327

310

175

278

430

360

-5

-2

-9.8 11.7

-43.2 5.1

-63.5 19.3

26.2 32.2

-50.3 -8.9

-5.3

7.9

-56.5 -4.3

-5.8 6.9

-17.8 2.5

-12.2 3.9

8.3

9.4

-29.6 -6.4

-3.5 2.4

-23.7 -2.1

-8.0 2.5

12.4

20.4

13.4

20.9

31.8

18.6

25.8

16.1

27.9

14.2

17.0

21.2

10.9

21.1

15.7

21.0

31.8

17.5

26.0

16.8

28.3

19.3

17.2

17.7

137

2984

648

1446

341

1950

466

382

1281

185

521

612

200

2500

960

1700

300

2335

525

450

1650

240

525

750

-16

-12

3.8

4.6

6.2

43.4 62.7 82.9

33.1 44.2 55.6

62.3 75.3 89.5

5.0

6.2

7.0

42.3 46.5 55.6

5.5

6.8

8.3

11.3 11.6 12.5

90.2 106.4 126.6

6.8 11.8 13.9

39.4 45.0 53.5

19.2 24.5 30.7

30 August 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

TP % Upside

(INR) (INR) Downside

484

600

409

460

1391 1750

552

710

2026 2500

1346 1650

EPS (INR)

FY18 FY19E FY20E

17.4 20.3 24.2

43.0 44.8 48.9

49.9 63.0 78.4

32.9 40.9 45.9

100.8 136.9 158.5

69.1 109.4 135.5

Valuation snapshot

ROE (%)

FY18 FY19E

12.5 12.4

24.1 21.4

13.9 15.2

16.9 18.0

12.7 15.4

12.7 16.9

14.8 15.7

11.6

18.0

2.5

17.5

48.7

4.5

18.3

15.7

17.3

18.7

23.1

13.7

9.1

21.9

8.8

12.4

15.9

11.0

6.1

9.7

3.8

9.5

8.0

2.0

6.1

14.4

4.4

27.4

6.5

6.9

16.2

9.4

8.2

25.3

32.9

49.0

25.9

29.2

-3.3

24.9

21.2

78.1

22.3

16.0

34.2

13.3

17.2

3.6

21.8

44.8

6.9

17.7

16.8

23.4

20.4

21.3

14.3

10.8

22.4

12.3

12.9

15.1

12.0

7.8

14.0

6.6

11.1

12.6

3.5

9.1

14.1

9.9

22.7

12.0

8.1

15.5

10.5

10.8

25.7

32.6

48.3

23.4

30.2

1.2

24.8

22.5

86.9

22.9

17.3

35.8

Company

Reco

M&M Fin.

Buy

Muthoot Fin

Neutral

PNB Housing

Buy

Repco Home

Buy

Shriram City Union Buy

Shriram Trans.

Buy

Aggregate

Capital Goods

ABB

Sell

Bharat Elec.

Buy

BHEL

Sell

Blue Star

Neutral

CG Cons. Elec.

Buy

CG Power & Indu. Neutral

Cummins

Buy

Engineers India

Buy

GE T&D

Neutral

Havells

Buy

K E C Intl

Neutral

L&T

Buy

Siemens

Neutral

Solar Ind

Neutral

Thermax

Buy

Va Tech Wab.

Buy

Voltas

Neutral

Aggregate

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

Neutral

ACC

Buy

Birla Corp.

Buy

Dalmia Bharat

Buy

Grasim Inds.

Neutral

India Cem

Neutral

JK Lakshmi Ce

Buy

Ramco Cem

Buy

Orient Cem

Buy

Prism Johnson

Buy

Sagar Cements

Not Rated

Sanghi Inds.

Buy

Shree Cem

Buy

Ultratech

Buy

Aggregate

Consumer

Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Buy

Dabur

Neutral

Emami

Buy

Future Consumer Buy

Godrej Cons.

Neutral

GSK Cons.

Neutral

HUL

Buy

ITC

Neutral

Jyothy Lab

Neutral

Marico

Neutral

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E

146.3 16.2 19.3 27.7 23.8 3.1

2.8

45.6 4.1

9.2

9.5

9.1

2.1

1.8

57.7 26.4 24.4 27.9 22.1 3.6

3.2

13.1 24.0 12.3 16.8 13.5 2.7

2.2

19.5 35.8 15.8 20.1 14.8 2.4

2.1

24.7 58.4 23.8 19.5 12.3 2.2

1.9

25.2 23.7 20.7 34.0 27.5 5.0

4.3

8.1

-8.8

64.1

12.7

14.3

-29.8

-11.2

14.8

30.8

17.4

51.1

22.4

10.9

18.2

-1.2

27.6

11.9

15.1

30.5

27.7

-35.6

106.8

-15.4

-42.0

5.8

-12.3

288.2

29.5

0.4

-10.9

-0.7

1.9

13.5

18.6

7.2

-8.5

Loss

11.4

6.6

24.7

5.5

-12.4

-2.8

27.0

6.1

45.6

37.6

23.4

52.6

12.6

0.8

56.4

23.4

12.5

15.4

27.0

21.1

51.4

34.5

9.3

18.8

33.9

54.7

99.2

28.7

76.8

80.2

58.1

8.0

138.5

416.9

101.0

45.4

10.0

20.5

43.6

24.5

16.4

28.0

25.7

22.6

16.1

20.4

17.0

12.7

22.1

27.8

22.0

19.8

29.8

30.1

14.8

14.5

21.6

18.0

27.4

31.6

51.8

27.2

38.1

67.3

47.4

62.6

33.5

39.7

40.5

45.3

36.9

34.4

66.7

20.0

36.7

46.5

48.4

20.6

33.0

19.9

37.4

63.7

16.9

26.1

51.9

48.4

49.9

16.1

36.3

31.8

38.5

34.4

40.3

46.9

18.7

37.1

44.8

29.0

53.6

109.1

29.2

21.8

48.8

51.4

39.0

52.5

18.8

25.2

33.8

39.2

13.5

29.3

19.8

23.9

51.6

15.1

22.7

40.9

39.9

33.0

12.0

33.2

26.8

28.7

22.3

20.2

36.4

10.6

20.6

28.4

26.8

22.5

21.1

14.5

15.0

44.4

42.7

27.2

59.8

68.3

41.3

56.1

38.9

705.8

58.8

37.6

60.1

31.2

36.8

48.7

7.8

3.6

0.9

7.8

19.8

1.0

5.4

3.7

6.0

11.9

3.9

3.4

4.7

9.8

4.2

1.9

5.3

3.5

2.3

3.2

1.4

4.2

1.4

0.7

2.7

4.0

2.3

5.6

1.8

1.3

7.4

4.7

3.2

15.9

23.7

20.5

14.7

12.6

8.8

15.7

8.9

53.8

7.4

6.6

18.7

7.0

3.2

0.9

7.0

15.8

0.9

5.0

3.4

5.2

10.5

3.2

3.1

4.4

8.2

3.9

1.7

4.8

3.2

2.2

3.0

1.3

3.8

1.3

0.7

2.5

3.6

2.1

4.5

1.6

1.2

6.4

4.3

2.9

14.9

21.0

19.4

11.8

11.0

8.7

13.6

8.0

50.9

6.9

6.1

16.3

1322

115

674

250

776

125

280

715

303

1351

1026

1179

1025

387

628

950

145

695

305

800

155

330

645

360

1570

1070

1150

1295

450

590

-28

-26

-10

-2

-6

19.8

5.7

2.2

14.5

5.2

2.9

23.5

6.3

7.5

11.2

17.9

51.7

19.8

24.4

20.5

24.1

17.3

25.2

6.1

3.2

20.0

6.4

4.4

26.5

6.3

11.7

13.8

20.1

59.7

25.1

29.5

31.1

32.4

18.9

31.3

7.1

4.1

25.1

7.8

5.1

31.9

7.4

13.2

16.9

25.7

72.8

30.1

38.3

40.4

37.2

21.6

234

1614

762

2618

1074

121

330

691

116

734

18829

4405

231

1633

1030

3198

1084

120

384

802

139

136

130

19804

4536

-1

6.1

46.9

18.9

55.9

57.4

3.3

7.4

23.9

2.2

1.1

25.2

3.7

385.8

85.7

8.1

72.5

37.7

71.9

101.4

5.9

11.6

25.8

5.1

5.5

50.6

5.4

424.5

103.3

9.6

92.4

49.6

109.1

129.0

8.1

19.5

38.0

8.4

7.3

70.6

7.6

617.1

141.4

1392

6737

1150

478

561

1440

7411

1759

313

208

369

1405

7165

1360

440

665

1240

6710

2010

295

220

370

-8

-14

-9

-6

21.1

83.6

25.2

7.8

12.1

-0.2

21.1

166.5

24.5

8.9

4.9

6.5

23.3

98.6

27.8

8.5

14.4

0.1

24.5

197.3

29.2

10.0

5.7

7.6

28.3

124.9

32.5

10.1

17.2

0.9

28.5

222.1

35.6

11.4

7.0

9.0

10.1 21.6 65.9

17.8 26.7 80.5

10.5 16.7 45.7

9.7

18.9 61.5

18.8 19.5 46.2

LP 1,080.9 NM

16.1 16.2 68.2

18.5 12.6 44.5

19.5 21.8 71.8

13.2 13.8 35.3

14.9 24.5 42.3

17.6 18.2 57.2

30 August 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

Company

Reco

(INR)

Nestle

Neutral 11323

Page Inds

Neutral 35891

Parag Milk Foods Neutral

298

Pidilite Ind.

Buy

1151

P&G Hygiene

Neutral

9587

Prabhat Dairy

Not Rated 154

United Brew

Buy

1386

United Spirits

Neutral

641

Aggregate

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Neutral

592

Alkem Lab

Buy

2117

Ajanta Pharma

Buy

1231

Aurobindo

Buy

691

Biocon

Neutral

614

Cadila

Buy

387

Cipla

Neutral

644

Divis Lab

Neutral

1276

Dr Reddy’s

Neutral

2386

Fortis Health

Buy

149

Glenmark

Neutral

645

Granules

Buy

112

GSK Pharma

Neutral

3343

IPCA Labs

Buy

764

Jubilant Life

Buy

719

Laurus Labs

Buy

439

Lupin

Buy

887

Sanofi India

Buy

6254

Shilpa Medicare Buy

487

Strides Shasun

Buy

480

Sun Pharma

Buy

621

Torrent Pharma Neutral

1767

Aggregate

Infrastructure

Ashoka Buildcon Buy

137

IRB Infra

Neutral

193

KNR Constructions Buy

235

Sadbhav

Buy

282

Engineering

Aggregate

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics Buy

119

Concor

Buy

640

Aggregate

Media

Dish TV

Buy

D B Corp

Neutral

232

Ent.Network

Buy

708

Hathway Cable

Buy

Hind. Media

Neutral

162

HT Media

Neutral

Jagran Prak.

Buy

124

Music Broadcast Buy

334

PVR

Buy

1361

Sun TV

Buy

768

TP % Upside

(INR) Downside

10620

-6

31600

-12

314

1325

10250

1550

615

-4

EPS (INR)

FY18 FY19E FY20E

140.0 181.0 197.8

311.1 412.2 529.4

10.4 12.0 14.9

18.9 19.7 23.5

115.3 156.6 186.4

3.5

6.4

9.7

14.9 18.7 23.7

6.7

9.2 13.2

Valuation snapshot

P/B (x)

FY18 FY19E

31.9 29.0

47.2 38.0

3.5

3.1

16.3 14.4

33.4 29.0

2.1

2.0

13.7 11.8

18.6 13.7

15.1 13.6

4.3

4.6

4.5

2.9

6.5

3.9

3.3

5.3

2.9

1.7

3.0

2.0

15.0

3.2

2.2

2.7

2.8

6.5

3.1

1.7

3.7

5.5

3.7

ROE (%)

FY18 FY19E

40.3 48.5

41.0 43.6

13.0 13.2

27.3 26.2

46.3 50.8

4.9

8.5

15.8 17.2

19.6 19.6

26.4 27.7

19.6

15.1

26.0

23.8

7.2

22.1

11.5

15.5

8.6

-2.3

15.6

12.2

16.2

9.3

18.9

11.9

15.6

16.1

10.3

3.9

8.7

20.3

12.6

19.3

17.0

20.4

20.1

11.3

19.5

11.7

18.6

12.5

1.6

14.0

12.7

27.5

12.7

21.6

14.0

9.4

17.2

14.5

4.4

11.2

16.2

13.2

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E

13.2 29.2

9.3

80.9 62.6

30.3 32.5 28.5 115.4 87.1

187.1 15.8 24.3 28.7 24.8

13.2 4.0

19.3 60.8 58.4

-13.4 35.9 19.0 83.2 61.2

-2.0 83.8 52.1 44.2 24.1

71.7 25.7 26.3 92.9 73.9

26.1 36.4 43.1 95.0 69.7

10.5 16.4 18.5 57.0 48.9

2.5 14.3

-21.1 25.7

-7.5 -2.7

8.7

3.5

-39.2 71.1

20.6 2.5

31.2 14.3

-17.3 31.0

-10.9 53.6

-27.5 4.1

-21.8 20.2

14.4 56.0

18.1 49.8

23.3 38.2

-10.9 33.1

-17.4 -37.6

9.8 17.7

-0.7 65.4

-65.1 8.4

-48.5 36.7

-2.6 -10.4

-18.2 15.9

Loss

17.5

61.8

17.5

-0.5

-29.1

24.7

12.5

33.2

26.2

11.9

96.5

8.9

29.8

21.5

21.4

234.2

20.0

28.0

13.2

34.6

16.4

47.7

54.5

14.8

26.8

92.0

39.3

35.0

29.6

231.2

-1.2

22.3

11.3

27.1

36.0

23.2

16.2

99.0

22.1

31.6

38.6

36.9

22.7

19.8

85.1

40.3

15.8

27.7

19.0

44.1

38.0

42.6

46.1

32.9

32.8

8.1

12.1

21.9

15.2

540

2475

1560

750

625

440

620

1270

2170

171

550

130

2888

850

1020

552

950

6590

620

481

700

1430

-9

-4

-9

-15

-14

-19

21.9

58.9

53.0

42.7

6.2

17.5

20.3

33.0

64.7

-2.3

28.5

5.7

39.3

19.0

45.6

15.8

46.8

141.7

12.8

11.3

13.5

53.7

25.0

74.0

51.5

44.2

10.6

18.0

23.2

43.3

99.3

1.4

29.7

6.8

61.3

28.4

63.0

21.1

29.2

166.8

21.2

12.2

18.4

48.1

28.2

98.6

65.0

49.5

20.9

19.6

30.2

52.6

120.6

4.8

35.6

8.7

69.4

38.3

73.3

31.2

45.1

191.6

26.9

23.4

25.6

65.0

23.7 5.0

28.6 5.2

23.9 5.3

15.6 3.5

57.8 7.1

21.5 4.5

27.7 3.6

29.5 5.7

24.0 3.1

104.2 1.7

21.8 3.5

16.5 2.2

54.5 13.8

26.9 3.6

11.4 2.7

20.8 3.1

30.4 3.0

37.5 7.1

22.9 3.7

39.3 1.7

33.7 3.9

36.7 6.5

28.3 4.1

173.4 12.2

8.1

1.1

17.1 2.9

17.6

13.9

14.1

24.8

23.4

38.9

12.6

53.8

6.3

10.4

25.7

39.7

21.1

2.6

2.0

1.5

3.3

3.0

1.9

2.2

3.8

2.0

0.9

0.5

1.9

3.2

5.9

6.5

195

225

315

385

-4.2

23.9

19.4

12.9

0.8

23.8

13.7

16.0

2.6

23.5

16.8

17.8

11.4 -30.2 6.8

1.0 14.6 12.9

2.5 26.5 15.5

2.3

1.7

1.3

3.1

2.8

1.8

2.3

3.6

2.2

0.8

0.5

1.8

3.0

5.2

6.0

12.5

12.8

9.5

9.1

8.9

-2.1

18.4

3.7

-8.7

14.0

12.6

14.3

9.0

12.2

25.2

13.8

12.5

10.0

12.9

12.0

4.9

17.0

6.9

-8.2

13.2

7.5

17.5

11.9

13.9

29.6

146

769

7.3

17.1

8.4

25.8

10.5

30.9

-23.1

13.4

4.7

16.3

51.2

45.1

24.3

19.7

20.4

16.4

37.5

34.0

100

300

851

237

156

455

1565

1050

148

-0.4

17.6

6.8

-0.9

23.9

13.0

9.6

9.1

26.7

27.7

1.8

18.4

13.2

-0.8

25.5

8.5

11.9

13.0

34.3

36.5

5.5

23.1

21.6

-0.6

28.0

9.9

14.9

17.1

44.8

41.9

-13.8 4.3

-40.5 93.7

Loss Loss

-7.5

6.9

75.6 -34.5

-9.5 23.8

41.1 43.5

29.9 28.6

11.6 31.5

201.8 NM

25.7 13.2

64.4 104.3

Loss

9.5

6.8

16.6

4.1

24.7 12.9

31.6 36.8

30.5 51.0

14.9 27.7

30 August 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

Valuation snapshot

Company

Zee Ent.

Aggregate

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

SAIL

Rain Industries

Vedanta

Tata Steel

Aggregate

Oil & Gas

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Aggregate

Retail

Jubilant Food

Titan Co.

Aggregate

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Aggregate

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Reco

Buy

CMP

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E

506

680

14.6 16.1 19.5 -7.0 10.6 21.3 34.7 31.4 6.4

5.6 19.6 19.0

0.1 26.3 33.9 31.6 25.0 3.8

3.6 12.1 14.2

237

299

217

399

109

195

228

594

331

295

327

385

108

178

241

269

632

-1

-4

18.9

21.1

-8.5

23.4

5.0

13.1

0.3

23.7

20.4

71.9

24.4

22.2

1.9

33.4

9.1

13.7

8.9

32.4

21.6

85.1

27.8 120.5 29.4 13.6 12.6

9.7

26.3 7.2

5.0

18.6 14.2 13.5

3.8 Loss

101.2 NM 114.3

30.1 56.9 42.8

-9.8

17.1 11.9

8.2 35.3 80.7 -10.4 15.2

8.4

14.6 31.5 4.7

6.1

8.3

7.9

6.8

LP 3,359 -23.8 311.1 9.0

34.2 238.1 36.4

5.7

8.2

6.0

27.0 34.6 6.2

24.9 11.2 10.5

68.7 76.5 18.4 -19.3

8.3

7.0

73.3 31.2

2.2

12.7

9.7

11.0

48.9

32.5

40.7

12.2

51.8

18.8

12.8

54.8

11.9

35.1

31.5

19.3

94.9

64.5 36.9

3.0

-2.3

20.5 30.6

32.0 55.4

34.6 4.0

-12.4 6.7

11.0 -24.9

9.2 22.1

21.5 5.5

-13.6 -21.6

-1.2 49.3

-9.9 40.1

21.8 24.5

20.7 25.7

5.5 15.1

35.9

0.5

21.9

23.8

-1.0

2.4

4.7

11.5

7.3

19.0

5.8

11.3

11.9

23.9

13.9

24.8

26.5

26.2

18.2

13.1

17.3

18.0

39.0

9.5

18.4

28.0

16.8

14.1

21.6

14.2

34.0

14.7

38.8

7.3

18.0

36.4

15.5

5.4

6.6

30.6

17.3

6.3

9.4

8.8

16.8

21.2

12.5

104.3

69.8

76.5

18.8

16.5

26.0

21.8

23.2

30.1

28.4

29.2

20.8

36.1

31.3

17.2

16.6

29.8

23.6

28.3

7.4

13.8

23.4

14.9

5.1

8.7

25.0

16.4

8.1

6.3

13.5

16.9

10.9

70.4

54.4

58.2

18.5

14.3

22.6

19.4

19.1

22.4

21.6

22.4

18.2

29.5

25.2

17.0

15.8

22.1

21.4

1.4

3.5

0.7

3.4

1.3

1.4

0.9

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.5

6.4

1.9

2.0

5.7

2.0

1.5

1.3

5.7

3.9

1.3

0.9

1.1

3.6

2.6

1.9

21.1

15.4

16.6

3.4

3.9

6.5

4.9

3.2

6.2

4.4

4.6

3.3

12.0

9.0

3.4

2.8

4.3

5.7

1.3

3.1

0.7

2.7

1.2

1.3

0.8

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.3

5.4

1.7

1.8

4.8

1.8

1.3

1.2

4.9

3.5

1.1

0.8

1.0

3.1

2.3

1.7

17.1

15.3

16.0

3.1

3.4

5.5

4.7

2.7

5.4

5.1

4.2

3.2

9.4

8.8

3.0

2.4

3.7

5.4

12.8

26.7

-2.7

22.2

9.1

17.7

0.3

22.9

12.2

17.8

11.5

19.4

29.0

11.8

16.7

14.0

31.0

21.0

20.8

24.3

21.2

9.4

13.0

23.3

13.0

14.9

20.3

24.0

21.8

18.3

25.0

26.9

24.1

15.4

18.8

14.6

16.2

16.7

37.6

29.4

21.5

17.0

15.3

24.1

14.2

24.2

0.6

25.5

14.8

17.1

9.5

24.5

12.2

16.5

13.5

20.7

24.4

14.2

22.3

13.0

27.8

14.5

21.0

22.5

15.0

13.7

16.9

24.6

14.3

15.3

24.2

28.2

27.4

16.7

25.3

26.4

25.0

16.1

25.7

20.9

19.5

18.3

35.8

34.9

19.3

15.7

18.1

25.0

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

230

361

367

771

184

258

157

288

838

210

177

233

1294

311

535

361

990

196

428

254

383

1097

296

219

312

1301

-2

5.9

49.8

20.4

21.2

11.9

47.4

23.9

9.4

48.4

12.8

22.2

20.2

13.9

60.9

8.1

48.6

26.6

32.9

12.3

50.6

17.9

11.5

51.1

10.0

33.1

28.3

17.2

76.6

Neutral

Buy

1551

882

1320

1130

-15

14.9

12.6

22.0

16.2

27.5 180.6 48.2

20.5 39.9 28.4

51.2 31.3

45.9

81.5

22.4

85.8

18.2

64.4

63.2

70.2

58.9

55.4

93.5

52.6

21.5

95.0

24.8

4.5

21.2

3.1

6.1

38.0

13.2

19.8

7.2

37.7

-1.0

33.6

7.7

1.3

5.0

1.4

15.2

15.1

12.3

21.3

34.8

31.1

30.1

13.9

22.3

24.1

1.3

5.2

34.4

10.0

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

719

1033

431

1410

294

1036

1249

1329

838

1399

2066

734

297

1570

780

1100

380

1600

320

1225

1100

950

1700

1950

800

300

1500

-12

-17

-6

-4

38.2

62.6

16.6

64.8

12.7

34.4

44.0

45.6

40.4

38.7

66.0

42.7

17.9

52.8

38.8

72.0

19.1

72.7

15.4

46.3

57.7

59.3

46.0

47.4

81.9

43.3

18.8

70.9

Buy

Neutral

Buy

375

284

550

470

305

670

4.1

13.6

-9.6

3.5

-0.8

1.2 -63.3 PL

13.5 13.8 -8.1 -1.2

2.4

-15.2 -13.3 Loss Loss

Loss

0.7 13.8 -67.2 -78.5 1,752.3

92.0 NM

2.2

20.8 21.1 3.1

0.8

158.8 740.0 31.4

2.2

2.4 -0.5

3.2 15.6 14.9

1.0 -16.0 -26.5

30.1 9.4

4.2

30 August 2018

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

Valuation snapshot

Company

Reco

Aggregate

Utiltites

Coal India

Buy

CESC

Buy

JSW Energy

Neutral

NHPC

Buy

NTPC

Buy

Power Grid

Buy

Tata Power

Neutral

Aggregate

Others

Arvind

Neutral

Avenue

Sell

Supermarts

BSE

Buy

Castrol India

Buy

Coromandel Intl Buy

Delta Corp

Buy

Interglobe

Neutral

Indo Count

Neutral

Info Edge

Buy

Kaveri Seed

Buy

MCX

Buy

Navneet EducationBuy

Oberoi Realty

Buy

Phoenix Mills

Buy

Quess Corp

Neutral

PI Inds.

Buy

Piramal Enterp. Buy

SRF

Buy

S H Kelkar

Buy

Tata Chemicals

Buy

Team Lease Serv. Buy

Trident

Buy

UPL

Buy

CMP

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) (INR) Downside FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E FY18 FY19E

-98.8 PL

Loss 2,850 -53

2.1

2.2

0.1 -4.1

287

988

166

194

345

1292

194

253

-2

19.2

75.5

3.0

2.4

13.2

16.5

5.3

26.2 30.6 28.3

96.2 105.4 45.5

3.5

4.8 -21.2

2.7

3.0 -17.3

15.3 16.3 6.8

18.6 20.6 16.1

6.2

7.9

3.5

13.4

14.7

16.7

20.0

22.3

0.1

68.4

6.0

2.9

38.8

89.4

35.1

-45.7

31.3

67.8

-14.6

-26.1

21.2

44.2

115.7

-20.2

7.2

-10.3

-2.2

39.7

28.0

-21.8

5.9

36.6

27.4

15.5

11.4

16.0

12.5

16.0

22.0

15.4

29.3

1.9

-11.4

3.1

18.8

-27.8

15.8

14.5

11.5

8.4

45.7

94.1

15.8

5.3

15.3

1.1

27.6

7.8

3.0

40.3

32.9

5.7

16.7

9.6

36.5

11.3

6.4

10.7

26.9

12.1

36.5

33.7

25.9

0.7

19.1

36.3

52.7

13.8

23.9

22.3

46.7

12.8

46.3

42.4

52.1

20.6

69.2

27.5

34.6

18.5

56.9

16.5

8.3

15.0

13.1

22.7

10.3

12.6

11.7

14.4

13.1

31.4

123.8

17.0

22.8

18.5

46.8

16.6

11.5

69.9

19.9

38.7

25.4

36.2

38.5

48.2

28.9

40.1

25.5

31.2

15.7

61.1

12.2

15.4

11.0

10.3

19.6

9.3

10.8

10.4

12.4

10.8

27.2

95.7

16.6

25.7

18.0

39.4

23.0

9.9

61.1

17.9

35.7

17.4

18.7

33.3

45.7

25.1

39.7

20.0

29.0

15.3

43.6

9.2

14.5

9.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.8

1.4

2.0

2.7

21.4

1.3

15.4

3.9

4.3

5.3

1.5

9.1

4.2

3.0

4.3

2.7

3.3

4.8

5.5

2.4

3.4

3.7

1.7

9.9

1.1

3.7

8.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.9

2.5

17.5

1.1

14.6

3.5

4.1

5.1

1.3

8.2

3.8

2.9

3.8

2.1

2.6

4.3

4.7

2.3

3.0

3.4

1.6

8.1

1.0

3.1

36.5

9.2

4.6

8.5

10.8

16.3

10.7

15.3

8.9

18.9

7.6

69.1

22.1

11.9

41.3

14.0

13.4

20.9

7.9

17.4

7.8

9.6

18.8

20.7

7.5

13.7

12.3

24.9

17.6

9.2

26.9

77.8

10.9

5.1

9.1

11.7

16.3

10.2

17.3

9.6

20.1

6.3

58.3

20.4

10.8

22.4

14.3

14.1

22.2

8.4

22.9

12.6

8.7

12.4

20.4

5.8

15.8

12.3

11.0

20.4

11.5

23.4

399

1599

737

159

421

271

970

1570

638

821

137

457

609

1051

771

3119

2053

221

758

2630

680

454

1117

950

218

557

301

903

1550

741

1000

160

616

757

1100

889

3125

2225

257

957

3500

749

-30

-7

-1

12.7

12.9

43.5 44.3 55.8

7.0

6.2

22.7 23.4 27.9

5.8

6.9

9.4

58.3 42.1 64.3

6.4

7.4

8.4

22.5 25.7 31.8

32.0 35.7 43.6

21.2 23.0 33.7

5.4

7.9

8.9

12.6 24.5 35.8

15.8 18.3 26.1

21.8 23.0 35.0

26.7 30.7 37.1

77.8 78.6 133.1

80.4 102.6 130.9

7.1

7.6 10.3

48.2 49.7 58.8

43.0 60.4 94.8

5.3

7.0

8.2

44.2 46.7 50.6

30 August 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Sumi

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Banks - Private

AU Small Fin. Bank

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IndusInd

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

Indian Bk

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap

Bajaj Fin.

Capital First

Cholaman.Inv.&Fn

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

HDFC Stand. Life

Indiabulls Hsg

L&T Fin.Holdings

LIC Hsg Fin

M&M Fin.

Muthoot Fin

MAS Financial Serv.

ICICI Pru Life

PNB Housing

Repco Home

1 Day (%)

1.0

-0.2

0.0

1.4

6.4

0.2

-1.8

0.2

-0.5

-0.1

0.2

0.3

-0.6

0.4

0.5

-2.1

2.0

-0.6

-0.3

2.6

1.6

-0.9

0.5

-1.4

0.2

1.0

1.4

-1.4

2.4

4.0

2.9

0.8

1.6

1.5

2.7

-0.6

1.7

2.0

-0.6

3.4

-0.1

1.0

-0.9

1.0

-0.3

1.4

-0.2

0.1

0.5

-1.2

0.3

1M (%)

8.9

17.1

0.4

5.5

7.5

1.8

-2.6

11.9

-3.3

6.1

1.4

7.9

0.5

-2.3

6.0

14.9

18.6

4.5

13.8

-10.8

-5.7

16.1

-3.5

-1.8

12.4

-1.7

-1.1

6.7

-2.8

1.2

-7.4

2.7

8.0

3.3

-4.1

10.2

22.1

-1.2

5.3

-4.6

-8.3

-2.6

4.9

-3.0

-6.5

-1.1

7.6

-7.0

3.5

-10.5

12M (%)

12.8

25.9

-1.6

17.8

-7.9

-14.3

-8.5

54.0

47.8

48.1

-18.0

42.5

24.4

2.1

-30.5

-6.2

34.1

30.4

-6.9

-0.9

-24.8

19.0

14.1

16.1

33.4

20.5

-35.4

6.4

5.2

-33.0

-16.3

13.2

-40.3

11.9

-34.7

Company

Shriram City Union

Shriram Trans.

Capital Goods

ABB

Bharat Elec.

BHEL

Blue Star

CG Cons. Elec.

CG Power & Inds Sol.

Cummins

Engineers India

GE T&D

Havells

K E C Intl

L&T

Siemens

Solar Ind

Thermax

Va Tech Wab.

Voltas

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

ACC

Birla Corp.

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Inds.

India Cem

JK Lakshmi Ce

Ramco Cem

Orient Cem

Prism Johnson

Sagar Cements

Sanghi Inds.

Shree Cem

Ultratech

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Future Consumer

Godrej Cons.

GSK Cons.

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Lab

Marico

Nestle

Page Inds

Parag Milk

Pidilite Ind.

P&G Hygiene

Prabhat Dairy

United Brew

1 Day (%)

0.0

0.7

1.0

-0.2

3.8

-1.5

1.3

0.1

-0.5

1.0

-2.0

-0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-2.0

1.1

1.4

-0.1

-1.1

-0.7

-2.5

-3.4

0.2

1.7

0.7

1.5

-0.8

2.3

-1.0

-1.7

0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-0.2

-1.6

1.7

8.9

0.1

-0.5

-0.7

0.4

1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-1.7

-0.4

-4.4

0.8

1M (%)

5.1

-4.8

11.6

12.3

13.4

-1.4

2.2

-6.3

14.2

-6.2

-3.2

14.5

-12.4

3.1

4.1

2.9

-9.9

9.7

9.6

3.9

5.2

-1.8

-2.8

4.8

1.8

-2.3

-4.4

-9.3

-1.1

-7.3

-14.1

9.9

6.8

-2.9

5.5

4.4

24.0

-0.7

14.2

10.1

15.2

6.1

3.5

-7.4

2.3

10.0

23.6

0.8

2.2

-9.1

1.5

24.0

12M (%)

-4.9

38.5

-2.3

-31.7

-4.7

-10.3

15.8

-24.4

-13.7

-20.2

-26.0

48.0

-2.8

19.6

-19.4

32.6

15.3

-36.2

20.6

-15.0

-10.2

-20.4

-2.2

-5.0

-29.1

-20.8

1.0

-22.1

5.9

-9.5

-2.4

8.2

12.0

20.8

61.4

5.2

54.4

4.7

10.7

57.7

38.4

47.7

11.6

9.0

18.1

62.8

107.5

22.8

39.1

16.1

15.9

73.3

68.0

-7.7

26.1

36.3

12.9

6.6

-2.1

-21.0

17.6

-9.8

-9.9

-12.9

-13.6

30 August 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

United Spirits

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Aurobindo

Biocon

Cadila

Cipla

Divis Lab

Dr Reddy’s

Fortis Health

Glenmark

Granules

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs

Jubilant Life

Lupin

Laurus Labs

Sanofi India

Shilpa Medicare

Strides Shasun

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Infrastructure

Ashoka Buildcon

IRB Infra.Devl.

KNR Construct.

Sadbhav Engg.

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics

Concor

Media

Dish TV

D B Corp

Ent.Network

Hathway Cab.

Hind. Media

HT Media

Jagran Prak.

Music Broadcast

PVR

Sun TV

Zee Ent.

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

Rain Industries

SAIL

Vedanta

Tata Steel

1 Day (%)

1.4

-0.1

2.5

-0.1

0.7

-0.2

-2.4

-0.8

-0.3

-1.3

-0.8

0.3

-1.8

-0.6

0.3

-0.6

-1.6

-0.4

-2.7

-4.9

0.4

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

1.2

2.1

-0.1

1.5

-1.2

-1.0

0.1

8.9

0.7

-0.3

1.0

-1.4

2.3

-0.7

-0.9

-0.8

4.2

9.0

2.5

0.0

-5.0

2.8

-1.1

0.8

1M (%)

7.6

4.4

0.2

12.6

16.8

4.7

3.7

1.5

15.9

14.6

8.8

12.5

10.7

5.4

1.8

-9.3

8.8

-2.4

7.4

28.0

33.3

11.4

19.1

-7.7

-4.7

0.3

2.1

0.8

-1.3

5.4

-7.5

-2.2

15.9

-10.8

-1.9

-2.9

8.5

22.2

-0.9

-2.5

10.9

9.3

6.9

23.5

22.8

4.5

-3.0

6.2

3.7

8.1

12M (%)

25.0

16.8

20.8

2.9

-5.6

79.9

-22.3

13.3

85.9

16.7

3.2

4.9

-11.1

37.5

83.7

3.0

-10.2

-13.3

57.4

-17.2

-45.4

29.0

45.5

10.6

-8.2

12.1

1.8

-29.2

1.8

-10.7

-38.0

-15.3

-42.1

-39.4

-40.7

-27.7

-10.3

7.7

9.6

-2.4

4.0

5.3

65.4

61.5

13.0

-10.8

39.7

31.0

-23.6

0.0

Company

Oil & Gas

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Retail

Jubilant Food

Titan Co.

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Utiltites

Coal India

CESC

JSW Energy

NHPC Ltd

NTPC

Power Grid

Tata Power

Others

Arvind

Avenue Super.

BSE

Castrol India

Coromandel Intl

Delta Corp

Interglobe

Indo Count

1 Day (%)

-1.3

0.8

0.3

0.6

2.2

0.5

-1.8

0.8

1.6

0.6

-1.8

-0.6

-0.7

0.1

-0.7

2.8

-1.0

0.3

-0.3

0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-1.4

0.0

-0.2

0.4

0.3

-0.4

-1.0

-3.3

0.4

-2.6

-0.1

0.4

-1.3

-1.6

2.9

0.2

0.5

-1.2

1.0

-0.6

2.4

-5.5

-4.4

1M (%)

-2.9

-9.0

-2.9

0.2

-6.2

-9.4

-5.2

-2.3

-5.9

-0.1

-0.7

9.9

0.6

14.6

9.6

-0.2

1.3

7.2

-5.8

2.6

-1.4

10.4

11.4

6.0

0.4

-3.6

6.3

13.8

8.2

27.5

2.9

-1.8

-12.2

-3.1

9.6

4.1

2.6

5.0

7.3

7.9

7.0

-6.4

2.0

-8.3

5.1

13.9

-3.7

-9.4

12M (%)

21.6

-28.4

29.3

-0.9

-4.4

-44.9

-28.0

16.0

-17.3

-36.1

8.6

12.8

4.6

69.0

130.5

46.6

36.3

21.3

59.2

52.1

153.8

119.9

104.9

167.0

35.1

70.0

66.9

70.1

2.1

100.6

-12.5

-25.4

-43.4

-15.1

20.5

-1.1

5.0

-13.1

-1.5

-10.2

-0.1

10.9

55.0

-24.8

-17.1

-3.4

46.5

-17.4

-34.6

30 August 2018

MOSL Universe stock performance

Company

Info Edge

Kaveri Seed

MCX

Navneet Educat.

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

PI Inds.

Piramal Enterp.

Quess Corp

SRF

S H Kelkar

Tata Chemicals

Team Lease Serv.

Trident

UPL

1 Day (%)

1.4

-0.2

-1.3

0.3

-0.8

0.2

-0.7

0.5

-1.7

5.2

-0.7

1.4

-0.3

2.9

3.9

1M (%)

11.9

5.1

-0.9

23.4

-5.0

-3.0

-4.7

17.3

-1.7

22.0

11.4

11.6

-1.3

16.1

6.9

12M (%)

69.6

18.0

-22.5

-15.3

23.5

15.8

7.8

18.0

25.9

40.4

-8.9

29.3

77.7

-31.6

-19.1

30 August 2018

NOTES

30 August 2018

THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

REPORT GALLERY

RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS

DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT GALLERY

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL*

)

is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,

Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of

which are available on

www.motilaloswal.com.

MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and BSE Limited (BSE), Multi

Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited

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http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf

MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject

company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.

MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short

position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker

in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and

opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even

though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its

associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:

managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.

Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in

this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a

result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment

banking or brokerage service transactions.

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This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in

part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this

report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or

implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation

of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as

customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the

specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement



Analyst ownership of the stock

Companies where there is interest

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.

Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or

its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have

expressed their views.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject

MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

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This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the

Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets

(Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this

document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not

qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered

investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption

under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional

Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional

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Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the

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provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be

subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore,

as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of

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Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.

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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or

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other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and

opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution

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transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made

as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated

as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time

without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They

may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each

other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views

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may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors,

employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

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accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any

such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm

Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:

na@motilaloswal.com,

Contact No.:022-30801085.

Registration details of group entities: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser:

INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409)

offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal

Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products

*MOSL

has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of

MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.

30 August 2018