27th March 2019
Management Meet Update I Industry: Auto Anci.
Subros Ltd.
BSE SENSEX
38,137
S&P CNX
11,434
CMP: INR251 TP: INR386(+54%)
Buy
Stock Info
M.Cap. (INR b)
Avg. Turnover, INR m
Equity Shares (m)
Face value
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12m Rel. Per* (%)
*Relative to BSE sensex
^Stock price as on 27
th
March, 2019
16
7
65
2
379/206
-2/-31/-30
Our recent plant visit to Subros at Manesar reinforces our confidence
in the company, as its MD, Ms. Shradha Suri Marwah elaborated on
the progress and growth potential of Subros’ different businesses, key
organizational changes and several other initiatives. Despite the near
term sluggishness in the auto industry, the long term growth story
remains attractive, given its (i) upcoming new capacity, (ii) focus on
newer product and technology development like roof circulators etc.,
(iii) rising market share, (iv) positive impact of implementation of BS-
VI, CAFE norms, EVs etc. and (v) robust pick up in the truck and radiator
business. Additionally, deleveraging of balance sheet, consistent free
cash flow generation and improving return ratios, strengthens our
narrative. However, we believe the stock would remain lackluster in
the near term until the auto sector revives. The stock is trading at 14.4x
FY20E and 11.8x FY21E EPS. We retain Buy with a target price of INR386
(20x Sep’20E EPS).
Some of the key takeaways from our plant visit and management
interaction are as below:
Market leadership in key segments to continue:
Subros remains the
market leader with ~42% market share in the PV AC segment and ~60%
in Truck AC segment. Within PV AC, its products mainly cater to petrol
variants, thus benefiting from the ongoing industry shift towards petrol
variants (petrol:diesel mix of 42:58 in FY13; to 64:36 in FY19E; to 76:24
in FY22E). Apart from this, the upcoming BS-VI norms will increase the
prices of diesel vehicles compared to petrol which will also support
Subros’ revenue mix.
In case of Truck AC segment, management expects strong demand for
ACs (>3.5 tonne) post the tightening of Corporate Average Fuel
Efficiency (CAFÉ) norms. Thus the mix of Blower:AC in trucks would likely
change from current 70:30 to 10:90 going forward. With AC prices being
higher by ~4x to that of Blower, higher realization and margin would
drive Subros’ overall growth.
Currently, ~90% of Subros’ revenue comes from PV segment including
Engine Cooling Module (ECM) and balance from non-PV segment. Going
ahead, management targets to reduce its PV segment contribution to
~83% by FY21E in order to de-risk its business.
Increasing focus on non PV segments to drive growth:
In order to
diversify its revenue base, Subros aims at capturing various
opportunities arising in the non PV segments such as 1) fetching an
Annual Maintenance Contract (AMC) from railway coaches apart from
supplying ACs for driver’s cabin, 2) capturing increasing requirement of
refrigerated vehicles in order to reduce food wastage (currently >20%
wastage in food products), 3) acquiring new clients in home AC segment
where it supplies condensers, and 4) grabbing new orders arising from
increasing governments focus on electric buses (AC penetration in the
same is >80% vs. ~12% in conventional buses). It aims to clock a revenue
of INR1.5bn from railway AC segment, INR0.3bn from Reefer AC
segment and INR0.75-1bn from home AC segment over next 3-4 years.
Financials Snapshot (INR bn)
Y/E Mar
FY19E
21.5
12.4
2.4
0.9
13.1
38.1
105.3
0.6
19.1
2.4
8.3
15.7
14.6
FY20E
23.9
11.0
2.7
1.1
17.4
32.6
120.4
0.8
14.4
2.1
7.0
15.4
19.4
FY21E
26.9
12.8
3.1
1.4
21.2
21.6
138.8
0.9
11.8
1.8
5.9
16.3
21.3
Net Sales
Growth (%)
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/sh. (INR)
Div. Yield (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-18 Sept-18
40.0
40.0
Promoter
MFs
6.7
6.7
FPIs
0.6
0.6
Others
52.7
52.7
Dec-18
36.8
6.0
0.6
56.6
Investors are advised to refer
through disclosures made at the end
of the Research Report.
Sneha Poddar – Research Analyst (Sneha.poddar@motilaloswal.com
Pooja Doshi – Research Analyst (Pooja.doshi@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.