Sector Update | 9 January 2020
Cement
Price hikes in 4 quarter have
been very frequent
Number of instances of price
hikes in last 25 years
18 18 19
16 16
13
12
11 11
10 9
th
That time of the year again
Seasonality in prices starting to play out with hikes made this week
8
Our analysis of cement price movement over the past 25 years shows strong
seasonality with prices rising by 7% on average in first half of a calendar year but
declining by 2% in second half. We believe this is because volumes tend to be stronger
in first half, but are impacted by monsoon and festive holidays (Diwali, etc.) in other
half, leading a slowdown in construction activity.
January this year has also started on a positive note as prices have increased by
~INR10/bag (3%) in most parts of the country (according to our channel checks) after
declining by ~INR30/bag (9%) in the last six months. While some of these hikes may
get rolled back in the next few weeks, we expect the industry to continue attempting
prices hikes over the next few months as demand has been improving seasonally (i.e.
month on month) as expected.
Moreover, industry will have cost tailwind in the March quarter due to lower petcoke
price and operating leverage gains from seasonally higher volumes, which should be
further supportive of margins.
Our sensitivity analysis indicates 3-7% upgrade in EBITDA for our cement universe for
every 1% increase in price. Companies lower down the cost curve (ACC, Ambuja, India
Cement, etc.) benefit more at 5-7% from a hike given their weaker EBITDA profile.
Shree Cement accordingly benefits the least at 3%.
New year kick starts with hikes of INR10/bag across regions
The first week of Jan’20 witnessed INR10/bag of hikes across regions. All-India
cement prices are up by 9% YoY, with an increase of 13-15% YoY in north and
central India and 3-4% YoY in east and west.
While prices remained steady to INR10/bag higher in most regions of south,
Hyderabad has witnessed a hike of INR40/bag. Notably, prices in Hyderabad had
declined sharply by INR65/bag in Oct-Dec’19. Given weak demand in
AP/Telangana, we would not rule out a rollback of the hike – something which
happened in both Sept and November when hikes failed. Prices in south are
currently higher by 9% YoY including these hikes.
Our channel checks also suggest that there has been a seasonal pickup in
cement demand from Dec’19 which should be supportive of price hikes. On a
YoY basis, however, demand remains only marginally positive.
We have built in 3-5% increase in prices in 4Q for our cement universe.
Our pricing database of the last 25 years shows that price hikes tend to be
highest in the March quarter – 20 out of the past 25 years have seen sequential
price increases with an average increase of 5%.
Current prices are still lower by 6% from Apr-May’19 levels when price hikes of
INR50-60/bag were initiated in most parts of the country. Most of the decline
has been in east, west and south, while north and central India have fared
better given tighter capacity utilization there.
History suggests maximum price hikes in March quarter
Amit Murarka - Research analyst
(Amit.Murarka@motilaloswal.com) +91 22 7199 2309
Pradnya Ganar - Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1537
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update
Petcoke prices fall; imported coal prices up MoM
Domestic petcoke prices are down by 23% since Apr’19. Prices were down by
INR860/t (11%MoM) in Nov’19 itself; average petcoke price for Jan’20 is lower
by 18% YoY.
However, imported coal prices have been on a rise since Oct’19. Prices were up
~14% MoM in Dec’19. However, on a YoY basis, average coal prices are down by
14% in Jan’20.
Valuation and view
Cement demand recovery will be slow and gradual, in our view. While we expect
volume growth of only 1% in FY20, it should be better at 6% in FY21, given the
recent improvement in demand trends and a low base. Prices in north and
central India should continue faring better, given the stronger utilization outlook
(>85%) for the next two years even in a low demand growth environment.
We prefer companies that have higher exposure to these regions, are moving
down the cost curve and provide valuation comfort. UltraTech therefore is our
top large-cap pick and JK Cement is our top mid-cap pick.
Exhibit 1: Cement: Valuation summary
CMP
(INR)
4,243
21,222
205
1,493
769
819
1,218
629
314
66
77
76
42
RECO
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
ROE (%)
TP
(INR) FY20E FY21E
5,120 11.3
13.3
22,360 14.3
14.5
220
6.6
6.6
1,780 12.7
12.0
800
13.9
13.1
1,025
2.5
3.4
1,430 17.0
15.9
825
10.0
10.6
375
14.5
14.8
100
7.7
9.4
80
2.2
2.3
105
9.9
9.9
60
5.6
0.3
FY22E
14.5
15.6
6.8
12.1
13.3
6.4
17.2
11.5
15.8
11.9
3.3
9.9
2.3
P/E (x)
FY20E FY21E FY22E
30.6
23.3
18.9
46.8
37.3
30.5
18.7
17.7
16.5
19.8
18.8
16.9
27.4
25.8
22.6
58.5
42.6
21.8
19.0
17.6
14.1
10.3
9.0
7.5
15.7
13.5
10.9
36.8
28.5
20.7
20.2
18.8
13.3
14.2
13.1
12.1
11.1 228.5 26.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY20E FY21E FY22E
13.8
11.6
10.0
18.4
15.9
13.2
9.8
8.7
8.0
9.4
8.1
6.9
13.9
14.5
12.0
8.1
7.2
5.6
9.4
8.0
6.5
4.7
4.1
3.5
6.9
6.2
5.2
8.5
7.7
6.8
7.8
6.1
5.1
7.3
5.5
9.3
6.4
4.9
7.0
EV/Ton(x)
FY20E FY21E FY22E
163.1 157.1 147.6
237.0 214.5 200.4
102.9 96.3
93.1
99.1
92.8
83.5
127.0 150.1 135.7
98.1
83.8
66.1
100.2 95.7
88.4
61.9
53.6
41.9
49.5
48.1
44.0
91.3
93.2
91.4
49.0
44.3
37.2
47.1
41.4
52.7
46.4
38.1
51.0
UTCEM
SRCM
ACEM
ACC
TRCL
DALBHARA
JKCE
BCORP
JKLC
PRISM
ICEM
ORCMNT
SNGI
9 January 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update
Story in charts
Exhibit 2: Price hikes in 4 quarter have been very frequent
Number of instances of price hikes in last 25 years
18
18
19
16
16
12
13
10
9
11
11
8
th
Exhibit 3: Average hikes of ~5% QoQ have been taken in last
25 years
Average Hikes (%MoM)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: MOFSL, Company
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 4: All-India prices up 9% YoY in Jan’20
All India retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
390
330
270
210
150
% Change YoY (RHS)
24%
12%
0%
-12%
-24%
Exhibit 5: Prices in north up 14% YoY in Jan’20
North retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
450
375
300
225
150
% Change YoY (RHS)
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Exhibit 6: Prices in central India up 15% YoY in Jan’20
390
330
270
210
150
Central retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
% Change YoY (RHS)
30%
15%
0%
-15%
-30%
Exhibit 7: Prices in west up 4% YoY in Jan’20
West retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
390
330
270
210
150
% Change YoY (RHS)
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
9 January 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update
Exhibit 8: Prices in south up 7% YoY in Jan’20
South retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
450
375
300
225
150
% Change YoY (RHS)
56%
28%
0%
-28%
-56%
390
330
270
210
150
0%
-25%
Exhibit 9: Prices in east up 3% YoY in Jan’20
East retail price INR/ 50 kg bag
% Change YoY (RHS)
50%
25%
MOFSL
MOFSL
Exhibit 10: Increase in EBITDA is to the extent of 3-7% for 1% increase in realization
Impact on EBITDA for 1% increase in realizations
5.7%
5.3%
4.2%
3.2%
4.3%
4.5%
3.9%
6.9%
ACC
ACEM
UTCEM
SRCM
DALBHARA
TRCL
JKCE
ICEM
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 11: Retail petcoke prices down 18% YoY in Jan’20
13%
Retail petcoke prices (INR/tonne)
6%
1%
6%
2%
-5%
YoY growth (%)
-18%
Exhibit 12: Imported coal prices (FOB) down 14% YoY in
Jan’20
Imported coal price/ t in INR (LHS)
13%
4% -1%
YoY growth (%)
-13% -15% -13% -16%
-22%
-15%
-16%
-28%
-38% -40% -39% -39% -38%
-27%
-15% -14%
Source: Industry
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 13: Diesel prices up 7% YoY in Jan’20
7%
1%
Diesel price (INR/ltr)
3%
3%
1%
-2%
YoY growth in Diesel prices
4%
-6%
-3%
-6%
-11%
66.6
66.6
68.5
68.9
68.6
68.4
66.1
68.7
67.8
68.1
-6%
7%
-10%
69.0
68.2
69.0
71.2
Source: Industry
9 January 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update
NOTES
9 January 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update
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9 January 2020
6