Sector Update | 3 February 2020
Sector Update | Financials
FinancialsTechnology
- Insurance
Dividend as a % of
Surplus/Deficit before tax
FY19 (%)
HDFCLIFE
IPRULIFE
SBILIFE
MAXLIFE
Impact of budgetary announcements on Life Insurers
-
Policyholder'sShareholder's
Premium growth may moderate; Dividend taxation to impact EV/VNB margins
A/C
A/C
360.0%
23.6%
389.4%
36.8%
In the Union Budget 2020, the government removed all major exemptions under the
537.5%
30.3%
new tax regime, which is likely to take away one of the key incentives that drives the
388.9%
26.3%
*Dividend income includes Interest
income and rent income
4Q individal un-weghted WRP
as a % of total
un-weighted WRP
HDFCLIFE
IPRULIFE
SBILIFE
MAXLIFE
FY16
37.9%
33.4%
36.5%
39.4%
FY19
34.9%
32.7%
31.6%
40.7%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Effect on Tax out flows due to
budgetary announcements
Savings/extra tax payable
Maximum savings under
new tax regime assuming no
exemptions were taken
Extra tax payable under new
tax regime assuming
exemptions were taken if
- Salary is INR7.5L
- Salary is INR10L
- Salary is INR12.5L
- Salary is INR15L
INR
78,000
39,000
47,320
57,720
81,120
Source: MOFSL, Company
sale of Life Insurance products. This resulted in a steep stock price correction for
insurers. The correction was especially more for the ones with a higher mix of the
savings business (MAXLIFE, ICICIPRU and SBILIFE corrected in the range of 10-14%
while HDFCLIFE corrected by ~6%).
The Indian insurance industry is primarily savings oriented and though growth in the
protection business has been strong, its share in total new business remains low.
Typically, the second-half of the fiscal is business-heavy owing to increased focus on
tax-saving investments (however, this skewness has been declining), and this may
drive softness in industry sales if individuals migrate to the new tax regime.
Moreover, the removal of Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) and the move of making
dividend taxable in the hands of recipients will result in higher Effective Tax Rate (ETR)
for life insurers, particularly for those that are ULIP-heavy. However, if corporates
maintain the same payout ratio, the impact will be relatively limited.
The government’s proposal to list LIC will also be a significant event to monitor. LIC
accounted for 61%/71% of total new business on weighted/un-weighted basis as at
9MFY20; its share in industry AUM stood at 78% (INR27.6t) as at FY19. Listing of LIC
will help improve transparency and disclosure standards for the entire life insurance
industry and will attract investors to participate in wealth creation in a sector that has
delivered one of the best returns last year.
In this note, we further analyze the tax liability for individuals under the new/existing
regimes across income levels. We note that while some individuals, especially in the
low/mid income level may opt for the new tax regime, tax liability for individuals
(availing exemptions) will actually increase, and thus, will prevent any meaningful
impact on new business sales of life insurers.
Skewness of insurance sales in 4Q showing declining trends; expect impact
to be modest
The removal of major exemptions/deductions under the new tax regime could
adversely impact the sale of life insurance companies, as typically the 4Q of every
fiscal is business-heavy owing to an increased focus on tax-saving investments.
However, this skewness seems to have declined over the past few years with the
proportion of premium being underwritten in the 4
th
quarter to total premium
showing declining trends for all listed insurers, barring Max Life (Exhibit
1 and 2).
This reflects the changing consumer behavior in buying insurance for the right
reasons, such as life protection and planning their cash flows for retirement/
emergencies, rather than just for tax-saving purposes. Though some tax payers
might shift to the new tax regime, with increasing consumer awareness, we expect
the impact to be modest.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1542|
Himanshu Taluja
(Himanshu.Taluja@motilaloswal.com)
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) |
Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
3 February 2020
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