14 February 2020
3QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
BPCL
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
BPCL IN
1,967
CMP: INR477
TP: INR522 (+9%)
Neutral
Marginally better than expected refining performance
1033.4 / 14.5
550 / 309
3/25/36
3300
Financials & Valuations (conso) (INR b)
Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr.%
BV/Sh.INR
Ratios
Net D:E
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Marginally higher-than-expected refining throughput and refining margin
more than compensated for the marginally weaker implied gross marketing
margin, resulting in a slight beat on EBITDA.
Continued strong marketing margin has been a solace in a weak refining
margin environment.
BPCL has been trading at forward PBV of the true deregulated period of
FY15-18. We do not see much upside despite the expected divestment.
Reiterate
Neutral.
EBITDA of INR27b (-2% QoQ) came in 5% higher than our estimate. Due to
the sharp decline in oil prices in 3QFY19, BPCL had witnessed an inventory
loss of INR33.3b v/s a gain of INR5.4b in 3QFY20 and a loss of INR260m in
2QFY20.
Forex loss was at INR1b in the quarter, as against a gain of INR6.6b in
3QFY19 and a loss of INR3.9b in 2QFY20.
Lower effective tax rate of 28.9% offset lower-than-expected other income,
leading to PAT of INR11.6b (5% beat; -32% QoQ).
For 9MFY20, standalone EBITDA stands at INR76b (-5% YoY), primarily due
to a poorer refining margin. 9MFY20 standalone PAT stands at INR39.5b (-
1.5% YoY).
Refining throughput stood at 8.41mmt v/s 7.5mmt in 3QFY19 and 7.7mmt in
2QFY20. Core GRM of USD2.2/bbl came in better than our estimate of
USD1.4 (v/s USD6 in 3QFY19 and USD3.8 in 2QFY20).
Implied gross marketing margin including inventory gain stood at INR4.8/lit
v/s INR2.9 in 3QFY19 and INR5 in 2QFY20.
Total domestic sales stood at 11.0mmt (+3% YoY, +8% QoQ).
Management guided that sale of stake in NRL and the government’s stake in
BPCL is likely to happen concurrently.
There is no plan to slow down the planned capex in light of the upcoming
divestment.
Refining margins are expected to remain weak for a few more months in
light of poor global demand growth. However, the company maintains
strong gross marketing margins.
In lieu of the poor refining margin environment, we value BPCL at 1.9x FY22E
PBV, at a 10% discount to the average over FY15-18 when there was true
deregulation of auto fuels without pricing intervention from the
government. Reiterate
Neutral
with a target price of INR522.
2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
2,982 2,872 3,016 3,105
158
85
43.4
137
61
30.9
174
91
46.3
49.7
178
95
48.1
3.8
Marginal beat on EBITDA
-12.9 -28.7
197.1 214.8 244.3 274.6
0.9
22.6
11.8
51.3
11.1
2.4
8.6
4.0
0.3
0.9
15.0
8.9
42.6
15.5
2.2
10.2
2.3
-3.0
0.8
20.2
10.6
36.4
10.4
2.0
8.1
3.0
6.2
0.7
18.5
10.0
37.0
10.0
1.7
7.7
3.2
7.0
Key operational highlights
Div yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-19 Sep-19 Dec-18
53.0
53.3
53.9
19.3
18.8
16.8
14.1
14.6
14.6
13.6
13.3
14.7
Highlights from management commentary
FII Includes depository receipts
Valuation and view
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst
(Sarfraz.Bhimani@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.