1 December 2020
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Sensex
Nifty-50
Nifty-M 100
Equities-Global
S&P 500
Nasdaq
FTSE 100
DAX
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Commodities
Brent (US$/Bbl)
Gold ($/OZ)
Cu (US$/MT)
Almn (US$/MT)
Currency
USD/INR
USD/EUR
USD/JPY
YIELD (%)
10 Yrs G-Sec
10 Yrs AAA Corp
Flows (USD b)
FIIs
DIIs
Volumes (INRb)
Cash
F&O
Note: *Average
Close
44,150
12,969
19,715
Close
3,622
12,199
6,266
13,291
10,546
26,434
Close
47
1,777
7,569
2,036
Close
74.0
1.2
104.1
Close
5.9
6.5
27-Nov
1.04
-0.67
27-Nov
1,516
15,497
Chg .%
-0.2
-0.1
2.7
Chg .%
-0.5
-0.1
-1.6
-0.3
-2.3
-0.8
Chg .%
-1.0
-0.6
1.1
2.5
Chg .%
0.2
0.4
-0.2
1MChg
0.04
-0.07
MTD
1.16
-0.75
MTD*
704
28,438
CYTD.%
7.0
6.6
15.3
CYTD.%
12.1
36.0
-16.9
0.3
-5.6
11.7
CYTD.%
-29.0
17.1
23.1
14.3
CYTD.%
3.7
6.7
-4.2
CYTDchg
-0.6
-1.1
CYTD
6.66
6.81
CYTD*
563
18,405
Today’s top research theme
India Strategy – Dec’20: The Eagle Eye
In this version of the ‘The Eagle Eye,’ we highlight the broad-based performance
of markets in Nov’20.
We also discuss the blockbuster 2QFY21 earnings, which has seen a broad-based
beat and subsequent earnings upgrade. Demand recovery and gross margin
expansion are the key themes of 2QFY21 earnings season.
We take a look at the divergent trends in FII and DII flows which have seen
record inflows and outflows respectively.
We note the key features of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan scheme 3.0 where
rural remained a key focus area for stimulus.
We have also highlighted some key reports from MOFSL Research Desk
published last month.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
India Strategy – DEC’20
Tech Mahindra
Key Highlights
The Eagle Eye
Focus squarely on 5G, but await clarity on the timeline
Piping hot news
Petrol prices witness steep rise following successive rate hikes
Petrol prices have scaled a 25-month peak following successive rate hikes by
state oil companies in the last ten days. Since 19th November, petrol prices
have risen by Rs 1.28 per litre while diesel prices are up by Rs 1.96 per litre.
Petrol sold for Rs 82.34 per litre on Monday in Delhi, the highest since 19th
October 2018. Diesel sold for Rs 72.42 a litre, the highest since 16th September
this year.
Chart of the Day: India Strategy – DEC’20 (The Eagle Eye)
NSE -500 Constituents performance MoM (Top 20 percentile and bottom 20 percentile)
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
In the news today
Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link
1
Moderna to seek US, EU
emergency authorization
today, says vaccine 100%
effective against severe Covid
2
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will nominate former Federal Reserve
chair Janet Yellen to be his treasury secretary and announced other
members of his economic team on Monday, the Biden transition team
said in a statement. The Democrat's picks include Wally Adeyemo as
deputy treasury secretary, Neera Tanden as director of the Office of
Management and Budget and Cecilia Rouse to lead the Council of
Economic Advisers, the transition team said…
Joe Biden taps Janet Yellen for Treasury, announces other
members of economic team
US-based pharma company
Moderna Inc said it will apply for
US and European emergency
authorization of its COVID-19
vaccine on Monday based on full
results from a late-stage study
showing its vaccine was 94.1% …
3
S&P retains India's growth
forecast at (-)9 per cent this
fiscal
S&P Global Ratings on Monday
retained its forecast of 9%
contraction in India’s economy for
the current fiscal even as it
pegged the FY22 growth at 10%.
“We retain our growth forecast of
negative 9% in fiscal 2020-2021
and 10% in fiscal 2021-2022…
4
Consumers going back to
credit cards as inquiries
exceed October '19 levels:
Transunion Cibil
5
GSK Consumer Healthcare
mulls local production of new
dental care brand in India
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer
Healthcare is looking at
partnering with local
manufacturers for its newly-
launched Polident brand of
specialized oral care products in
the country, with plans to make
India an export hub for the brand
in neighbouring markets…
Consumers are back to moving
away from cash to credit card
spending, a gauge of increase in
formalising economic activity that
had come to a virtual standstill
after the country-wide lockdown
post the COVID pandemic forcing
households to opt for cash
transactions…
6
Tata Sons is planning to
gradually raise its stake in
AirAsia India to more than 76 per
cent by the end of 2020-21,
people aware of the
development have said…
7
Indian Hotels looks East, signs
three-hotel deal with Ambuja
Neotia Group
Indian Hotels Company, the
hospitality arm of the Tata Group
has signed a three hotel deal
with Ambuja Neotia Group as it
seeks to make deeper inroads in
the eastern part of the country,
it said on Monday…
Tata Sons may raise stake to
over 76% in AirAsia India by
2020-21 end
1 December 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Update | 1 December 2020
India Strategy
Chart-book – The Eagle Eye
In this version of the ‘The Eagle Eye,’ we highlight the broad-based performance
of markets in Nov’20.
We also discuss the blockbuster 2QFY21 earnings, which has seen a broad-based
beat and subsequent earnings upgrade. Demand recovery and gross margin
expansion are the key themes of 2QFY21 earnings season.
We take a look at the divergent trends in FII and DII flows which have seen
record inflows and outflows respectively.
We note the key features of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan scheme 3.0 where
rural remained a key focus area for stimulus.
We have also highlighted some key reports from MOFSL Research Desk
published last month.
NSE -500 Constituents performance MoM (Top 20 percentile and bottom 20 percentile)
Quintile 1
Quintile 5
Performance (%, MoM)
23.9
11.1
1.3
-4.0
-3.7
2.7
-5.1
-15.1
-34.2
Jan'20
Feb'20
Mar'20
Apr'20
May'20
Jun'20
Jul'20
Aug'20
Sep'20
Oct'20
Nov'20
12.0
8.9
0.6
19.1
2.1
5.9
9.7
0.7
-1.3
-10.3
2.2
22.2
-11.3
MOFSL Profit Pool Analysis
11
30
BFSI
Consumer +IT+Autos+Retail+Pharma
Oil& Gas +Metals+Cement+Telecom
Others
13
31
19
32
32
17
Sep-18
22
22
33
23
Sep-19
17
26
31
26
Sep-20
44
16
Sep-16
39
17
Sep-17
1 December 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Nifty PAT (INR b)
Real GDP growth (% YoY)
Q3'20
CY20*
3.8
4.9
0.7
2.4
-11.5
-9.6
-8.6
-7.5
-6.4
-6.7
TH
-5.9
-6.0
-5.8
-6.5
SG
-4.4
-3.5 -3.5
-2.0
-7.2
HK
ID
US
-2.9
-3.9
-2.7
-6.4
-1.3
-0.9
-10.0
PH
-11.0
UK
-9.6
MX
-9.3
IN
-7.5
EA
JP
MY
SKr
TW
CN
Top Ideas
Company
MCap
(USD B)
EPS (INR)
FY20
FY21E
45.7
34.8
20.0
1.8
30.9
170.0
76.3
147.1
87.3
93.7
66.2
44.8
25.6
7.6
14.9
59.6
27.8
-3.9
FY22E
54.1
42.7
27.7
4.5
41.3
213.7
97.7
190.9
102.2
94.9
78.0
35.8
15.8
9.5
14.2
59.6
27.7
-0.7
EPS
PE (x)
CAGR
FY20-22,
FY21E FY22E
%
17.9
17.0
50.3
NA
36.5
26.8
41.3
11.7
16.5
36
13
26
NM
16
7
12
28
NM
24.1
61.4
23.7
263.7
7.9
28.2
47.3
21.1
13.2
23.4
19.9
18.7
9.5
40.1
29.6
5.5
16.1
NM
20.3
50.0
17.0
103.9
5.9
22.5
36.9
16.3
11.3
23.1
16.9
23.4
15.4
32.3
31.0
5.5
16.2
NM
PB (x)
FY21E
6.5
10.2
2.3
4.0
0.8
3.0
10.7
4.2
3.2
6.0
4.2
4.5
0.9
11.0
8.9
0.8
9.8
20.0
FY22E
5.5
10.2
2.0
3.9
0.7
2.7
8.7
3.9
2.6
4.9
3.7
3.8
0.8
9.2
8.8
0.7
8.3
21.2
ROE (%)
FY21E
27.0
28.6
10.5
1.4
9.9
11.9
25.0
20.4
27.0
28.7
21.4
27.2
8.7
27.3
32.8
15.8
66.7
-51.5
FY22E
27.0
20.4
12.8
3.8
12.4
13.3
26.1
24.9
25.6
23.3
24.1
17.5
5.6
28.4
28.4
14.0
55.3
-9.9
Stocks
away from (%)
52 Week 2 Year
high
high
-7
-18
-14
-24
-29
-4
-1
-8
-18
-12
-10
-31
-3
-7
-2
-32
-21
-42
-5
-14
-14
-23
-34
-3
0
-8
-15
-9
-8
-29
-2
-1
0
-42
-18
-41
PREFERRED LARGE-CAP STOCKS
Infosys
69
38.9
Hind. Unilever
68
31.2
ICICI Bank
44
12.3
Bharti Airtel
35
-7.5
St Bk of India
30
22.1
UltraTech Cem.
19
132.9
Divi's Lab.
13
48.9
Hero Motocorp
8
153.0
Muthoot Finance
6
75.3
PREFERRED MID-CAP STOCKS
Ipca Labs.
3.6
51.4
MphasiS
3.5
61.5
AU Small Finance
3.6
22.6
Jindal Steel
3.4
-5.5
Crompton Gr. Con 2.6
7.0
Emami
2.6
12.4
LIC Housing Fin.
2.2
47.6
ICICI Securities
1.9
16.8
Aditya Birla
1.6
-0.2
Fashion
Price as of 27 Nov’20
1 December 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tech Mahindra
BSE SENSEX
44,150
S&P CNX
12,969
30 November 2020
Company Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR876
TP: INR940 (+7%)
Neutral
Focus squarely on 5G, but await clarity on the timeline
We attended Tech Mahindra’s (TECHM) Analyst Day, wherein the management shared
its refreshed strategy and opportunities in 5G and Cloud migration. Here are the key
highlights from the meet:
TECHM IN
919
847.3 / 11.2
890 / 461
-3/28/7
3144
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
FY20 FY21E FY22E
369
381
425
Sales
11.6 11.6 11.5
EBIT Margin (%)
40
38
40
PAT
46.3 44.0 46.3
EPS (INR)
(5.9) (4.6)
5.2
EPS Gr. (%)
235.6 284.3 312.9
BV/Sh. (INR)
Ratios
18.5 15.4 14.7
RoE (%)
13.1 12.0 12.3
RoCE (%)
32.7 45.7 32.6
Payout (%)
Valuations
18.7 19.7 18.7
P/E (x)
3.7
3.0
2.8
P/BV (x)
12.9 10.9
9.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
1.7
2.3
1.7
Div Yield (%)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-20 Jun-20
Promoter
35.8
35.8
DII
14.4
13.2
FII
38.0
39.6
Others
11.8
11.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tech Mahindra
900
750
600
450
Sensex - Rebased
Refreshed strategy focuses on Cloud and Platforms
Potential opportunity in 5G across both Communications and Enterprise
verticals was the key highlight. In addition to IT services and the impact on
the business from a move to 5G (open network, micro-segmentation, etc.), it
detailed the prospects in businesses like Network Services, product R&D,
and on Enterprise network modernization through private networks.
The management believes there is a large multi-billion dollar opportunity in
5G network services (christened Network Services 3.0), and expects the
segment to grow at a faster pace than the overall Communications vertical.
Despite the massive scale of opportunity, management is circumspect on the
timeline, given the continued pressure on telcos’ revenues and limited
visibility on a pickup. It continues to guide at single-digit growth in FY22.
TECHM announced NXT.NOW as the next iteration of its well-established 3-
4-3 strategy. NXT.NOW focuses primarily on big bets within UX/CX,
Platforms and Cloud businesses. It believes that this strategy is more
appropriate in a post COVID world, and has already started to yield results in
form of deal wins and record high deal pipeline.
It plans to right-size its business through portfolio rationalization of non-core
offerings, geography and customers, but does not anticipate an impact on
near-term revenue. It is also streamlining its market penetration strategy.
In line with INFO’s recent commentary, TECHM highlighted the USD500b
opportunity in services, part of the USD1t spend expected on Cloud. It is
targeting the USD100b sub-set, which includes large deals, Data center
monetization (excl. assets), scaling SaaS/IaaS, and automated deployment.
The management expects FY22 revenue growth to be below 10% as the
momentum in Enterprise should be muted by the modest recovery in
Communications vertical despite the low base of FY21.
While it is much more confident of a margin recovery, we remain skeptical
due to the recent pickup being led by short-term measures.
We expect a recovery in the Communications vertical (40% of revenue) to
precede any re-rating in the stock multiple and hence retain our Neutral
rating. We see the need to invest back into the business as the key limitation
to its aim of margin improvement.
TECHM should deliver single-digit growth in FY22 (v/s double-digit growth by
its peers), which would lead to a lower P/E multiple. We value the stock at
20x FY22E EPS, at a 25% discount to our target P/E for TCS. Remain Neutral.
Targeting USD100b Cloud opportunity
Sep-19
35.9
14.4
37.8
12.0
FY22 recovery to be modest
Valuation and view
1 December 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The new strategy – NXT.NOW – provides greater focus on human centered experience and Cloud
Source: Company, MOFSL
1 December 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
1 December 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In
case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation
consistent with the investment rating legend.
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past 12 months.
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a)
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c)
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Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its
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in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without
any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or
have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any
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is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited
(MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409)
is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate
Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research.
Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before
investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.* MOFSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated
July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Ben
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
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1 December 2020
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