December 2020 Results Preview | Sector: Automobiles
Automobiles
Result Preview
Sharper-than-expected recovery in all segments
EBITDA margins to expand for the first time after eight quarters of decline
Company
Amara Raja Batteries
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
BOSCH
Ceat
Eicher Motors
Endurance Technologies
Escorts
Exide Industries
Hero MotoCorp
Mahindra CIE
Mahindra & Mahindra
Maruti Suzuki
Motherson Sumi Systems
Tata Motors
TVS Motor Company
Volume recovery seen in 2Q continued in 3QFY21. Strong momentum was witnessed
in retail sales of Tractors and PVs (YoY growth in retails), whereas the same for 2Ws
was marginally lower than last year.
On a wholesale basis, we estimate volumes to grow strongly for Tractors (+22% YoY),
PVs (+15% YoY) and 2Ws (+19% on a low base of last year). Among CVs, LCVs saw a
good recovery (+1.5% YoY), while the decline is getting smaller for M&HCVs (-8% YoY).
3Ws are witnessing a QoQ recovery in volumes.
We expect the recovery in EBITDA margins to continue for the second straight quarter
despite the initial impact of commodity cost inflation. The same for our OEM (ex-JLR)
universe is likely to expand 190bp YoY to 12.2% (+40bp QoQ), led by price hikes (in
2Ws and Tractors), lower discounts, cost cutting, and operating leverage benefits.
We are revising our FY22E EPS estimates to factor in volume upgrades as well as
substantial commodity cost inflation. We upgrade TTMT (+28%), AL (+11%), BHFC
(+11%), MSS (+14.5%) and ESC (+6%), whereas downgrade HMCL/MM (-8%).
Volumes across segments recover, but the divergence in trends visible
Volume recovery, seen in 2Q, continued in 3QFY21. Strong retail momentum was
witnessed for Tractors and PVs (YoY growth in retails), whereas 2Ws retails was
marginally lower than last year. On a wholesale basis, we estimate volumes to grow
strongly for Tractors (+22% YoY), PVs (+15% YoY) and 2Ws (+19% on a low base of
last year). Among CVs, LCVs saw a good recovery (+1.5% YoY), while the decline is
getting smaller for M&HCVs (-8% YoY). 3Ws are yet to see any material recovery (-
31% YoY), though volumes have been better on a QoQ basis. With low starting
inventory, both PVs and Tractors witnessed a waiting period due to good retail
momentum, whereas 2Ws and CVs saw normalization of inventory in 3QFY21.
Recovery in EBITDA margins to continue for the second consecutive quarter
We expect the recovery in EBITDA margins to continue for the second straight
quarter, despite the initial impact of commodity cost inflation. EBITDA margins for
our OEM (ex-JLR) universe is likely to expand 200bp YoY to 12.2% (+50bp QoQ), led
by price hikes (in 2Ws and Tractors), lower discounts, cost cutting, and operating
leverage benefits. However, 2W players like HMCL (-150bp YoY), EIM (-130bp YoY)
and BJAUT (-40bp YoY) would see a YoY decline.
Recovery strong, however uncertainties prevail in the near term
Contrary to our expectations, demand recovery has been stronger than expected
across segments (excluding 3Ws). This is attributable to pent-up demand, positive
agri economics, and a shift to private from public transport. This has led to
consistent upgrade in volume estimates. However, we do see near-term
uncertainties in the form of: a) supply-side disruption due to a global shortage of
semi-conductors, b) sharp commodity cost inflation, led price increases, and c) risk
to demand (from a price hike, fading benefit of COVID-19 to private transport, etc.).
We expect the volume recovery in all segments to sustain in FY22, with core
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com)
Vipul Agrawal - Research analyst
(Vipul.Agrawal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.