Sector Update |
Telecom | Update
17 March 2021
Telecom
Our earlier telecom update
Subscriber additions on a steady path
Bharti leads the mantle, Jio languishes, while VIL limps back
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released data for Jan’21. Here are the
key highlights:
Industry gross subscribers increased by 9.6m MoM (lost 1.4m in Dec’20) to 1.16b in
Jan’21, led by subscriber additions by all three major Telcos. Active subscribers rose by
a steady 3.3m in Jan’21 to 979m as RJio/VIL saw sharp subscriber losses.
Bharti added 5.9m/6.9m gross/active subscribers to 345m/336m in Jan’21,
consistently improving the pace of subscriber additions since the past six months.
With this, the company regained its top spot in terms of active subscriber market
share (SMS) at 34.3%. The quality of subscriber additions is reflected in its strong 5.5m
4G additions taking up 59% incremental SMS.
RJio’s monthly gross/active subscriber additions of 2m/-3.5m continued to disappoint,
taking the total base to 411m/325m. Active subscribers saw the largest loss since the
peak of the lockdown in Apr’20, losing 30bp market share to 33.2%.
VIL’s gross subscribers turned positive for the first time after 14 months, with 1.7m
additions (to 286m subscribers), while the decline in its active subscribers slowed to
0.3m to 256m (v/s a loss of 1.5m in Dec’20), signaling a bottoming of the subscriber
churn.
Industry 4G subscriber additions slowed to 9.8m to reach 734m (after adding 68m over
May-Dec’20), with 4G subscribers now accounting for 75% (flat MoM) of active
subscribers.
Bharti continued its healthy streak, outpacing peers since the past seven months, with
5.5m 4G additions (59% incremental share) v/s slowing additions for RJio at 2m (v/s
~7m/month in FY20). The same for VIL improved to 1.9m (0.5m in Dec’20). Bharti’s 4G
market share rose 40bp MoM to 24.8%, while RJio’s share dropped 50bp to 55.9%.
Industry wired broadband subscriber additions stood at 0.4m to 22.7m. Of this, RJio
added 180k, while Bharti added 90k subscribers.
The Telecom industry added 9.6m gross subscribers in Jan’21 to touch a subscriber
base of 1.16b (v/s a 1.4m loss in Dec’20). The trend has been maintained for the
past five months, with Bharti continuing to add higher gross, active and 4G
subscribers than RJio. The rise in Bharti/RJio gross subscriber base stood at 5.9m/2m
in Jan’21 (v/s 4.1m/0.5m additions in Dec’20). VIL added 1.7m subscribers in Jan’21.
Active subscribers increased by 3.3m in Jan’21 to touch 979m subscribers, after
adding 7.2m subscribers in Dec’20 (due to a loss of 3.5m RJio subscribers),
highlighting consolidation in the sector. Bharti continued with its strong (6.9m)
active subscriber additions, while VIL lost a mere 0.3m subscribers in Jan’21.
Bharti added 6.9m active subscribers and touched 336m subscribers in Jan’21 (v/s
5.5m additions in Dec’20). It retained its top position in active SMS with a 34.3%
share (+60bp MoM). The company added a total of 29m active subscribers since
May’20. It added 5.9m gross subscribers to touch 345m (v/s 4m additions in Dec’20
and 22m cumulative additions since May’20). The quality of Bharti’s subscribers is
Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com);
Research Analyst: Suhel Shaikh
(Suhel.Ahmad@MotilalOswal.com) /
Anshul Aggarwal
(Anshul.Aggarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Active subscriber base steadily rises
Bharti retains the top spot in active SMS
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Telecom | Update
reflected in its strong MBB subscriber additions of 5.5m (v/s RJio’s add of 2m),
taking up 59% incremental subscriber market share.
RJio added 2m gross subscribers to touch 411m in Jan’21 (v/s 0.5m additions in
Dec’20). Gross SMS grew to 35.3% (-10bp MoM). It continues to retain the top spot.
RJio’s monthly gross/MBB subscriber addition run-rate has slowed to ~2m for the
last six months, with 2m additions in Jan’21 (v/s an average ~7m in FY20).
RJio lost
3.5m active subscribers in Jan’21 to touch 325m (largest loss, excluding the
lockdown month of Apr’20), with its active SMS at 33.2%.
RJio slips to second spot in active SMS
VIL continues to witness subscriber churn
VIL added 1.7m gross subscribers (additions turned positive for the first time after
14 months), but lost 0.3m active subscribers, taking the total gross/active subscriber
base to 286m/256m in Jan’21, thus reflecting bottoming out of the subscriber churn.
Market share stood flat MoM in gross/active subscribers at 24.6%/26.2% in Jan’21.
Broadband subscriber data – MBB subscriber additions remains
steady
Number of industry MBB subscribers grows by 9.8m:
Industry MBB subscriber
additions increased to 9.8m in Jan’21 to touch 734m (4.9m additions in Dec’20).
MBB subscribers – whose count has been rising continuously from 64% in Oct’19
– now account for 75% (+70bp MoM) of the total number of active subscribers
in the market. Subscriber additions have been led by Bharti/RJio/VIL at
5.5m/2m/1.9m in Jan’21.
Bharti’s market share inches up 50bp:
Bharti continued its healthy streak to
outpace peers with 5.5m additions against RJio’s slowing 4G additions to 2m.
Bharti’s MBB SMS increased 50bp MoM to 24.8%, with an incremental MBB
market share of 59% in Jan’21.
RJio’s market share drops marginally:
RJio clocked 2m (v/s ~7m in FY20) MBB
subscribers to touch a subscriber base of 411m. Its market share slipped
marginally (50bp) to 56% (continuously declining from 59% in Apr’20).
VIL’s subscriber base remains steady:
VIL added 1.9m MBB subscribers in
Jan’21, taking its total subscriber base to 123m. Its market share stood flat MoM
at 16.7%.
Wired broadband market remains steady at 22.7m subscribers:
Industry wired
broadband subscriber additions stood at 380k, of which RJio added 180k, while
Bharti added 90k subscribers. BSNL’s total wired broadband subscriber stands at
7.7m, while Bharti/RJio’s wired broadband subscribers stands at 2.9m/2.3m in
Jan’21. BSNL’s remains the leader with a 34% market share, while Bharti/RJio
remain in second/third position with a market share of 12.8%/9.9% in Jan’21.
17 March 2021
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Telecom | Update
Exhibit 1: Active subscriber base increases to 979m
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
314
294
311
920
67
987
Mar’20
315
294
314
923
67
989
Apr’20
307
280
306
893
65
958
May’20
307
277
313
896
64
961
Jun’20
311
273
310
894
64
958
Jul’20
310
269
313
893
63
956
Aug’20
313
265
318
895
63
957
Sep’20
316
261
318
896
62
958
Oct’20
320
260
319
899
62
961
Nov’20
323
258
325
906
62
968
Dec’20
Jan’21
329
336
257
256
328
325
913
917
62
62
975
979
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Active subscriber net additions – Bharti adds 6.9m subscribers
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
1.5
-2.8
1.3
0.0
0.4
0.5
Mar’20
0.9
-0.8
2.5
2.5
-0.3
2.2
Apr’20
-8.0
-14.1
-7.2
-29.3
-2.0
-31.2
May’20
-0.2
-2.8
6.2
3.2
-0.3
2.9
Jun’20
3.7
-3.7
-2.1
-2.2
-0.6
-2.8
Jul’20
-0.4
-3.8
2.5
-1.7
-0.4
-2.2
Aug’20
2.3
-4.5
4.6
2.4
-0.8
1.6
Sep’20
3.8
-3.4
0.7
1.1
-0.1
1.0
Oct’20
3.0
-1.2
1.1
2.9
-0.4
2.5
Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’21
3.9
5.5
6.9
-1.9
-1.5
-0.3
5.4
3.2
-3.5
7.4
7.2
3.2
0.1
-0.2
0.1
7.5
7.0
3.3
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Nov’20
33.4
26.6
33.5
93.6
6.4
100.0
Dec’20 Jan’21
33.7
34.3
26.3
26.2
33.6
33.2
93.6
93.7
6.4
6.3
100.0
100.0
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Dec’20
339
284
409
1032
122
1,154
Jan’21
345
286
411
1041
122
1,163
Exhibit 3: Active subscriber market share – Bharti regains top position (%)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
31.9
29.8
31.5
93.2
6.8
100.0
Mar’20
31.9
29.7
31.7
93.3
6.7
100.0
Apr’20
32.1
29.2
32.0
93.3
6.7
100.0
May’20
32.0
28.8
32.5
93.3
6.7
100.0
Jun’20
32.4
28.5
32.4
93.3
6.7
100.0
Jul’20
32.5
28.2
32.7
93.4
6.6
100.0
Aug’20
32.7
27.6
33.2
93.5
6.5
100.0
Sep’20
33.0
27.3
33.2
93.5
6.5
100.0
Oct’20
33.3
27.1
33.2
93.5
6.5
100.0
Exhibit 4: Trend in gross subscriber base (m)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
329
326
383
1037
123
1,161
Mar’20
328
319
388
1034
123
1,158
Apr’20
323
315
389
1026
123
1,150
May’20
318
310
393
1020
123
1,144
Jun’20
317
305
397
1019
122
1,141
Jul’20
320
301
401
1022
122
1,144
Aug’20
323
300
403
1026
122
1,148
Sep’20
327
295
404
1026
122
1,149
Oct’20
330
293
406
1029
122
1,152
Nov’20
335
290
408
1033
122
1,155
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Gross subscriber net additions (m)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
0.9
-3.5
6.3
3.7
0.5
4.2
Mar’20
-1.3
-6.4
4.7
-2.9
0.0
-2.9
Apr’20
-5.3
-4.5
1.6
-8.2
0.0
-8.2
May’20
-4.7
-4.7
3.7
-5.8
0.2
-5.6
Jun’20
-1.1
-4.8
4.5
-1.5
-1.7
-3.2
Jul’20
3.3
-3.7
3.6
3.1
0.4
3.5
Aug’20
2.9
-1.2
1.9
3.5
0.2
3.7
Sep’20
3.8
-4.7
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.7
Oct’20
3.7
-2.7
2.2
3.2
0.0
3.2
Nov’20
4.4
-2.9
1.9
3.4
0.0
3.4
Dec’20 Jan’21
4.1
5.9
-5.7
1.7
0.5
2.0
-1.2
9.6
-0.3
0.1
-1.4
9.6
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Gross subscriber market share (%)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
28.4
28.0
33.0
89.4
10.6
100.0
Mar’20
28.3
27.6
33.5
89.4
10.6
100.0
Apr’20
28.1
27.4
33.8
89.3
10.7
100.0
May’20
27.8
27.1
34.3
89.2
10.8
100.0
Jun’20
27.8
26.7
34.8
89.3
10.7
100.0
Jul’20
28.0
26.3
35.0
89.3
10.7
100.0
Aug’20
28.1
26.1
35.1
89.3
10.7
100.0
Sep’20
28.4
25.7
35.2
89.3
10.7
100.0
Oct’20
28.7
25.4
35.3
89.4
10.6
100.0
Nov’20
29.0
25.1
35.3
89.4
10.6
100.0
Dec’20 Jan’21
29.4
29.6
24.6
24.6
35.4
35.3
89.4
89.5
10.6
10.5
100.0
100.0
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
17 March 2021
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Telecom | Update
Exhibit 7: Trend in MBB subscriber base (m)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
144
118
383
645
17
661
Mar’20
146
117
388
651
17
668
Apr’20
142
111
389
643
14
657
May’20
144
113
393
649
14
664
Jun’20
149
116
397
663
15
678
Jul’20
153
115
401
669
15
685
Aug’20
156
120
403
679
16
695
Sep’20
163
120
404
687
17
705
Oct’20
168
120
406
694
18
713
Nov’20
172
121
408
701
19
720
Dec’20 Jan’21
176
182
121
123
409
411
706
715
19
19
724
734
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: Trend in MBB subscriber net additions (m)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20
1.3
0.3
6.3
7.9
-0.1
7.7
Mar’20
2.4
-0.8
4.7
6.3
-0.1
6.2
Apr’20
-3.8
-6.1
1.6
-8.3
-2.9
-11.2
May’20
1.2
1.7
3.7
6.6
0.7
7.3
Jun’20
5.3
3.4
4.5
13.2
0.8
14.0
Jul’20
4.4
-1.2
3.6
6.8
0.1
6.9
Aug’20
3.2
4.6
1.9
9.7
0.7
10.4
Sep’20
7.0
-0.1
1.5
8.3
1.1
9.5
Oct’20
4.2
0.6
2.2
7.0
1.1
8.1
Nov’20
4.2
0.5
1.9
6.6
0.3
6.9
Dec’20 Jan’21
4.4
5.5
-0.2
1.9
0.5
2.0
4.7
9.4
0.2
0.4
4.9
9.8
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: Trend in MBB subscriber market share (m)
Bharti
VIL
RJio
Top three players
Other players
Total
Feb’20 Mar’20
21.7
21.9
17.9
17.6
57.9
58.0
97.5
97.5
2.5
2.5
100.0
100.0
Apr’20 May’20
21.7
21.6
17.0
17.0
59.3
59.2
97.9
97.8
2.1
2.2
100.0
100.0
Jun’20
22.0
17.2
58.6
97.7
2.3
100.0
Jul’20 Aug’20
22.4
22.5
16.8
17.3
58.5
57.9
97.8
97.7
2.2
2.3
100.0
100.0
Sep’20
23.2
17.0
57.4
97.6
2.4
100.0
Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’21
23.5
23.9
24.3
24.8
16.9
16.8
16.7
16.7
57.0
56.7
56.4
55.9
97.4
97.4
97.4
97.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source: TRAI, MOFSL
17 March 2021
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Telecom | Update
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5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
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financial interest in the subject company
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actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
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received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific
recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might
exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
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received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider
demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not
considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research
analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is
based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from
publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not
constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers
simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or
in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be
used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this
report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This
may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at
an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures,
options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied,
is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is
provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The
Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and
the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform
or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is
already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or
licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose
possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be
liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not
to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses,
costs, damages,
expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai-
400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI:
ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration
No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:
INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond,
NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered
through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk
Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk,
read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law
Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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