E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
2 June 2021
Apr’21 brings unseen mathematical problem
Expect 15–20% YoY growth in 1QFY22 real GDP
What happens when a non-zero integer is divided by zero? It returns “#DIV/0!” in Excel – meaning undefined. This is
what defined Apr’21. With lockdowns in the nation at their peak, several indicators – such as passenger traffic, foreign
tourist arrivals, and auto sales – witnessed no activity in Apr’20. As a result, it is mathematically impossible to estimate
year-on-year (YoY) economic growth for Apr’21. Many other indicators – such as steel/coal/cement production, tractor
sales, fuel sales, and IIP for capital goods – showed growth of several hundred percentage points in Apr’21.
Consequently, we have failed to produce an estimate for our in-house Economic Activity Index (EAI) for India in Apr’21.
To get some perspective on the severity of the second COVID wave on economic activity, we instead look at month-
over-month (MoM) changes in the list of macroeconomic indicators. Based on our EAI-GVA indicators, the adverse
economic impact of the second COVID wave in Apr’21 appears to be roughly one-third of that a year ago in the case of
the Industrial and Services sectors, while it appears higher at near 50% levels for the Farm sector. The adverse impact
on private consumption and investments was lower at 20–25% of that in Apr’20.
A look at certain available indicators for May’21 confirms the economic situation worsened last month with stricter
restrictions and more states implementing these. The MoM declines in many indicators were almost 2x that in Apr’21.
With the start of Jun’21, however, Maharashtra (MH) has taken some steps to unlock the economy and other states are
expected to follow suit, implying the worst is behind us.
This statistical issue would continue in May’21 as well; therefore, we may be able to present our EAI estimates for only
Jun’21/1QFY22 in early Aug’21. Although uncertainty continues to loom large, we revise down our 1QFY22 real GDP
growth to 15-20% YoY with downside risks, vis-à-vis the
previous
estimate of ~30%.
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Unlike the national
lockdown over Apr–Jun’20,
the second wave is
characterized by local
restrictions in various parts
of the country in the past
three months.
First, the national lockdown during the initial COVID wave…:
Around the same
time last year, India saw one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. This led to
almost negligible activity in some of the large sectors in the country. Automobile
sales were almost nil, passenger traffic was strictly controlled, and foreign
tourists were banned. Several other infrastructure-related sectors (such as steel,
cement, and coal), retail fuel sales (petrol/diesel), and capital goods production
saw massive declines in production in Apr’20.
…and now local lockdowns amid the ferocious second wave…:
The country has
been engulfed by the second COVID wave since mid-Feb’21. Nevertheless,
unlike the first wave, the central government has allowed the states to take
charge. Therefore, unlike the national lockdown over Apr–Jun’20, the second
wave is characterized by local restrictions in several parts of the country over
the past three months. As a result, while economic activity is affected, the
impact is not as severe or widespread as seen during the first wave.
…have presented an unseen mathematical problem:
Statistically speaking, this
creates an insurmountable problem. When we divide a non-zero integer with
zero, it is undefined. This is exactly the case with some of the indicators, while
several others show growth of many hundred percentage points (say, 400–500%
for steel and cement production). Not only does this render the analysis difficult
but also distorts the picture in a manner where we fail to produce an estimate
of India’s EAI for Apr’21.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Yaswi Agrawal – Research Analyst
(Yaswi.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The adverse economic
impact in Apr’21 appears to
be about one-third that in
Apr’20 in the case of the
Non-Farm sector, while it
seems higher at ~50% for
the Agricultural sector.
Economic activity in Apr’21 was 30–50% as bad as in Apr’20:
To get some sense of
“How much less worse is Apr’21 vis-à-vis Apr’20?”,
we instead analyze the MoM
changes across macroeconomic indicators
(Exhibit 1).
Our analysis suggests the
adverse economic impact of the second COVID wave in Apr’21 appears to be about
one-third of that a year ago in the case of the Industrial and Services sectors, while it
appears closer to 50% for the Farm sector.
Exhibit 1: Key indicators used in EAI-GVA creation on monthly basis
% MoM
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Agriculture and allied activities
IIP: Fertiliser
-13.5
33.4
1.0
Domestic tractor sales -64.6
420.7
52.1
1
Real rural wages
2.1
2.1
0.8
Reservoir levels
-20.0
-17.7
-2.3
Agriculture sector
-24.0
109.6
12.9
Industrial sector
Coal
-50.6
5.6
-4.7
Crude oil
-5.6
2.2
-2.9
Natural gas
-11.2
7.2
1.6
IIP: Mining
-39.8
11.2
-2.2
Mining
-26.8
6.5
-2.0
Electricity
-11.7
16.1
7.2
IIP: Manufacturing
-62.3
100.5
26.9
2
Credit growth
0.3
0.6
-1.0
Fuel consumption
-42.3
58.2
16.5
Manufacturing
-34.8
53.1
14.1
Steel production
-79.8
258.2
26.9
Cement output
-82.7
421.3
17.4
3
IIP: NMMP
-84.2
439.6
21.1
IIP: Construction
-82.7
335.5
30.0
Construction
-82.4
363.7
23.8
Industry
-38.9
109.9
10.8
Services sector
Auto sales
-99.7
n/a
250.3
4
Trade credit
-0.3
0.2
-0.7
Foreign arrivals
-100.0
n/a
n/a
5
Freight traffic
-31.5
13.3
11.6
5
Passengers traffic
-100.0
n/a
n/a
MFs AUMs
8.6
4.0
2.3
6
Fiscal Spending
44.3
-47.6
71.0
7
Real deposits
2.2
3.1
-1.7
Telecom subscribers -0.7
-0.5
-0.3
PMI: Services
5.4
12.6
33.7
Services sector
-27.2
-2.1
45.8
Aggregates
EAI-GVA
-30.0
72.4
23.2
1
Jul-20
4.2
-28.4
-0.8
23.4
-0.4
-3.9
4.2
5.3
2.1
1.9
3.0
10.6
-3.3
-8.1
-0.2
16.1
-8.0
-4.5
11.9
3.9
2.2
30.8
1.8
n/a
2.8
n/a
4.9
-17.6
0.3
0.3
34.2
7.2
3.0
Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
1.1
2.7
-1.8
87.4
22.4
-2.1
-2.1
-0.3
-4.0
-2.1
-2.2
0.2
-2.3
-11.3
-4.5
6.2
-13.9
-8.7
1.6
-3.7
-3.1
21.4
0.4
n/a
-0.2
52.5
0.6
-27.3
-0.7
0.3
41.8
9.8
9.7
-6.0
60.1
-2.0
13.0
16.3
7.5
-3.5
-5.7
4.3
0.6
5.7
6.6
-0.9
10.5
5.4
-0.5
16.2
7.9
1.5
6.3
4.5
19.9
-0.9
n/a
6.5
76.7
-3.0
7.1
-0.1
0.1
49.8
17.3
12.7
8.1
6.6
-1.4
-0.4
3.3
15.9
3.3
5.4
12.4
9.3
-5.7
4.3
-1.8
22.3
8.3
5.7
11.5
12.8
8.6
9.6
5.4
11.7
1.1
n/a
5.6
57.1
4.5
-10.2
0.5
0.3
54.1
13.9
7.5
-3.5
-27.7
-0.6
-7.3
-9.8
12.7
-3.2
-3.6
8.2
3.5
-7.7
-2.7
-0.7
0.8
-0.9
-1.5
-6.6
-3.8
-4.7
-4.1
-2.3
-20.5
-1.3
n/a
3.1
96.4
5.0
40.5
-0.7
0.3
53.7
19.6
2.5
2
-1.3
-19.9
1.6
-9.5
-7.3
13.2
2.8
4.1
10.0
7.5
5.5
8.2
0.0
1.3
3.2
9.5
11.9
8.8
10.0
10.1
6.6
-24.7
2.2
n/a
7.2
56.0
3.1
45.4
-0.3
-0.1
52.3
15.7
5.0
0.5
22.1
1.4
-11.8
3.0
3.5
0.7
5.2
3.3
3.2
4.0
-2.1
-0.1
-4.1
-2.1
-1.7
4.6
3.7
-1.1
1.4
1.6
22.5
1.1
n/a
1.3
26.1
-2.5
-37.9
1.3
0.5
52.8
7.2
4.0
-11.6
-3.3
0.8
-14.4
-7.1
1.2
-9.7
-9.8
-2.7
-5.3
3.7
-5.0
-1.1
-3.4
-3.1
-7.9
-1.9
-2.3
-6.8
-4.7
-2.3
0.0
-3.9
n/a
-7.2
20.5
2.4
-9.6
-0.4
0.7
55.3
6.4
-1.0
-12.1
12.4
0.6
-23.2
-5.6
28.5
12.6
16.9
17.9
19.0
5.6
8.6
3.8
10.0
7.4
9.5
13.5
12.2
10.8
11.5
10.9
5.9
4.6
n/a
18.5
9.8
-1.6
281.6
0.3
-0.2
8
54.6
41.5
15.6
-5.3
-24.0
-0.1
8
-18.5
-12.0
-46.0
-4.6
-1.1
-13.7
8
-16.4
-0.1
-11.8
8
-2.6
-7.8
-7.4
-20.7
-15.2
-28.2
8
-9.3
8
-18.3
-10.5
-31.1
-3.2
n/a
-14.5
-33.1
1.2
-66.1
-1.7
0.0
8
54.0
-10.5
-11.0
Real rural wages; deflated by CPI for rural workers
Real industrial credit growth; deflated by WPI
3
4
Non-metallic minerals products
Real non-food trade credit; deflated by WPI
5
6
Railways and aviation
Total non-interest spending by the central government; deflated by WPI
7
8
Real deposits; deflated by WPI
Our forecasts
9
CVs data is based on 4 companies, accounting for 98% of the industry
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
Worse than previous month and a year ago
Worse than the previous month but better than a year ago
Better than the previous month but worse than a year ago
Better than previous month and a year ago
2 June 2021
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The adverse impact on
private consumption in
Apr’21 was only about a
fifth as bad as in Apr’20.
Private consumption in Apr’21 was about a fifth as bad as in Apr’20…:
Similarly,
when we analyze the list of consumption-related indicators, we find the adverse
impact on private consumption in Apr’21 was only about a fifth as bad as in Apr’20
(Exhibit 2).
Fiscal spending, however, fell 50% MoM in Apr’21 v/s 56% MoM growth
in Apr’20.
Exhibit 2: Key leading indicators for consumption
% Mom
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
1
Passenger Revenue
traffic
1
spending
2
-100.0
n/a
n/a
177.2
49.9
72.3
54.9
90.3
53.9
25.3
19.9
9.5
-32.9
55.9
-50.5
72.3
-14.9
-30.0
1.1
-12.5
43.7
42.8
-42.0
-5.3
114.9
-50.3
Petrol
sales
-54.9
82.0
28.9
-0.9
5.3
2.9
8.3
0.4
1.5
-3.5
-5.7
11.2
10.1
Rural
wages
3
2.1
2.1
0.8
-0.8
-1.8
-2.0
-1.4
-0.6
1.6
1.4
0.8
0.6
-0.1
6
Consumer
non-
Currency Auto sales
4
Imports
5
durable: IIP
-40.3
86.1
9.0
1.2
-6.2
5.3
0.9
0.3
8.0
-7.1
-2.1
5.9
-12.3
6
3.1
3.5
1.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
1.2
2.1
0.2
1.1
1.1
0.8
1.7
2
Foreign
tourists
arrival
-100.0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Personal
credit
-2.3
-0.7
0.5
1.6
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.7
2.3
1.8
1.4
-0.1
Services
PMI
5.4
12.6
33.7
34.2
41.8
49.8
54.1
53.7
52.3
52.8
55.3
54.6
54.0
-100.0
n/a
257.3
30.8
21.3
19.5
11.4
-21.1
-26.0
23.6
0.1
4.7
-29.7
-32.6
45.2
-10.0
38.8
-3.9
20.6
0.3
-5.6
14.3
1.1
-9.9
18.2
-9.1
Railways and aviation
Revenue spending less interest payments of central government
3
4
Real rural wages, deflated by CPI for rural workers
Includes passenger vehicles and two-wheelers
5
6
Import of agricultural items, leather products, newsprint and electronic goods, textiles
Our forecasts
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
…and investments were about a quarter as bad in Apr’21 as a year ago:
Lastly, the
heat map for investment-related indicators suggests investment activity in Apr’21
was also affected by one-fourth that a year ago
(Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 3: Key leading indicators for investment
% MoM
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
1
Cargo
traffic
1
-31.5
13.3
11.6
2.8
-0.2
6.5
5.6
3.1
7.2
1.3
-7.2
18.5
-14.5
Electricity
-14.5
20.0
3.7
6.5
-2.2
2.3
-2.5
-10.7
9.0
4.0
-6.3
17.0
-3.3
Auto
sales
2
-91.6
383.5
116.0
30.2
24.3
31.5
20.3
-4.9
1.9
5.5
-2.0
29.0
-52.4
Diesel
sales
-42.4
68.9
14.7
-12.5
-12.0
13.3
27.4
0.7
2.0
-5.2
-3.7
0.0
20.2
Capital
IIP: Non-
Cement
IIP: Capital Industrial
Manufacturing
goods’
metallic
Govt capex
Production
goods
credit
PMI
imports
3
products
-54.8
58.1
-24.5
26.4
-9.5
17.7
18.2
1.8
38.6
-4.6
-3.8
6.3
-12.9
-82.7
421.3
17.4
-8.0
-13.9
16.2
11.5
-6.6
11.9
4.6
-1.9
13.5
-15.2
-84.2
439.6
21.1
-4.5
-8.7
7.9
12.8
-3.8
8.8
3.7
-2.3
12.2
-28.2
4
2
-90.4
405.7
80.2
11.1
7.1
19.0
1.1
-7.7
13.6
-2.7
0.5
9.9
-14.6
4
-0.7
-0.8
0.5
-1.9
-1.5
-0.1
-1.3
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.2
4.7
-0.8
-11.8
-5.0
22.9
-28.7
-4.1
38.9
0.4
39.0
54.8
-21.6
-18.8
-54.7
141.0
27.4
30.8
47.2
46.0
52.0
56.8
58.9
56.3
56.4
57.7
57.5
55.4
55.5
Railways and waterways
3
Machinery and equipment, transport equipment, machine tools and project goods
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
Includes commercial vehicles and three-wheelers
4
Our forecasts
2 June 2021
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The MoM declines in
several macroeconomic
indicators in May’21 were
2x that in Apr’21.
The economic condition worsened further and likely bottomed out in May’21:
A
look at certain available indicators for May’21 confirms the economic situation
worsened last month with stricter restrictions and more states implementing these.
The MoM declines in e-way bills, toll collections,
vahan
registrations, merchandise
imports, and power generation were almost 2x that in Apr’21
(Exhibit 4).
This clearly
suggests the adverse economic impact in May’21 was worse than in Apr’21.
However, the levels suggest that even the combined effects of Apr–May’21 were
nowhere near as severe as Apr–May’20.
Furthermore, with the start of Jun’21, Maharashtra (MH) has taken some steps to
unlock the economy and other states are expected to follow suit, implying the worst
is behind us.
Exhibit 4: Economic conditions worsen further and likely bottom out in May’21
%
Manufactu- E-way
Toll
FX
MoM ring PMI
1
bills collection
1
reserves
Units
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
1
Currency in
circulation
% MoM
3.9
3.4
3.7
1.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
1.2
2.0
0.3
1.0
1.1
0.8
2.0
1.7
Vahan
registration
% MoM
33.3
-83.7
-45.0
380.1
16.9
4.2
13.3
5.2
29.4
-0.6
-13.2
-6.1
10.2
-28.9
-55.0
Apple
mobility
2
% MoM
-39.6
-75.3
77.4
75.3
10.1
26.5
22.0
12.0
19.5
14.6
3.5
3.3
-14.5
-28.4
-40.4
Google
Power
Exports
4
Imports
4
mobility
3
generation
5
% MoM
n/a
-81.5
-76.1
-59.8
-59.3
-51.5
-41.9
-33.8
-28.1
-27.5
-27.6
-22.7
-22.1
-38.0
-62.9
2
Index
51.8
27.4
30.8
47.2
46.0
52.0
56.8
58.9
56.3
56.4
57.7
57.5
55.4
55.5
50.8
% MoM
-33.5
-78.1
186.5
76.0
7.8
2.2
20.0
8.1
-10.8
12.2
-2.1
12.4
0.8
-14.8
-35.0
% MoM
-28.2
-87.5
420.1
53.4
2.3
11.8
17.5
7.6
5.5
7.3
7.3
18.5
9.8
-12.1
-31.4
USD b
475.6
479.5
493.5
506.8
534.6
541.4
542.0
560.7
574.8
580.8
590.2
584.6
579.3
588.0
592.9
% MoM % MoM
-22.5
-51.8
85.7
14.2
8.0
-3.9
20.9
-9.6
-5.5
15.5
1.3
-0.1
25.2
-11.1
5.2
-17.0
-45.6
33.5
-6.7
33.6
3.5
2.8
12.0
-0.6
27.0
-2.1
-3.4
19.3
-5.5
-15.7
% MoM
-10.5
-11.7
16.1
7.2
3.0
-2.2
5.7
-5.7
-7.7
5.5
4.0
3.7
5.6
-0.1
-16.0
In terms of daily vehicle units
Apple mobility index for driving
3
4
Google mobility index for retail & recreation
Merchandise exports and imports
5
Based on daily power generation
Conditional formatting of mobility indicators not possible because of unavailability of past data
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
Although uncertainty
continues to loom large, we
revise down our 1QFY22
real GDP growth to 15-20%
YoY with downside risks vis-
à-vis the previous estimate
of ~30%.
We expect 1QFY22 real GDP growth of 15–20% vis-à-vis 30% expected earlier:
Lastly, it is relevant to note that this statistical issue would continue in May’21 as
well; therefore, we would be able to present our EAI estimates for only
Jun’21/1QFY22 in early Aug’21. Although uncertainty continues to loom large, we
revise down our 1QFY22 real GDP growth to 15-20% YoY with downside risks vis-à-
vis the
previous estimate
of ~30%.
2 June 2021
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,
is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary
company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOFSL
(erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of
India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its
stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member
of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance
products.
Details
of
associate
entities
of
Motilal
Oswal
Financial
Services
Limited
are
available
on
the
website
at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company in the past 12 months.
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their
relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in
any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as
an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.;
however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of
the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
Research Analyst may have served
as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the past 12 months. MOFSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
In the past 12 months , MOFSL or any of its associates may have:
-
-
-
-
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates in the past 12 months.
MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency,
MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL and / or its
affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may
have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial
holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income
from clients which are not considered in above disclosures. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only.
While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.).
MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is
based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from
publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not
constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers
simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research
analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Companies where there is interest
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and
Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity
and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use
would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities
and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal
Oswal Financial Services Limited(SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong
Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is
only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction
where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in
Hong Kong.
For U.S:
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state
laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934
Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by
MOFSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as
defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on
by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in
only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and
interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a
chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be
executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered
broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading
securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore:
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services
license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore,
as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110)
provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this
report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors
as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such
Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose
and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions
expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific
recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems
necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its
own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those
involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this
document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior
notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their
directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They
may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not
subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to
any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of
or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in
whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall
be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not
to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses,
costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022
7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI:
ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration
No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:
INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond,
NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered
through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk
Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk,
read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law
Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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