7 June 2021
Update
|
Healthcare
Alkem
Buy
BSE SENSEX
52,329
S&P CNX
15,752
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On growth path despite high base of past year
CMP: INR 3,139
TP: INR3,730 (+19% )
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
ALKEM IN
120
375.3 / 5.2
3215 / 2285
2/-8/-22
542
39.8
ALKEM is well-placed to benefit from a medium term recovery in the Domestic
Formulation (DF) business.
It had a positive impact of higher offtake of COVID-19 associated drugs in the
recent past. The reduction in COVID-19 cases, coinciding with seasonal change,
bodes well for a pick-up in the performance of Acute therapies.
Bunched-up ANDA launches over the next 12-15 months are expected to
improve sales growth as well as profitability of the US business.
We have tweaked our FY22E/FY23E EPS estimate by 2%/3% and continue to
value ALKEM at 23x 12-months forward earnings to arrive at our TP of INR3,730.
We remain positive on the back of robust growth in the DF segment and
improving profitability in the US segment. Reiterate Buy.
Gastro/VMNs outshines; Acute therapies in revival mode
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2021 2022E 2023E
Sales
88.5 99.2 110.8
EBITDA
20.1 21.1 24.7
Adj. PAT
16.0 16.8 19.2
EBIT Margin (%)
19.6 18.5 19.6
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 134.1 140.1 160.7
EPS Gr. (%)
40.5
4.5 14.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
617.0 724.0 848.5
Ratios
Net D:E
0.0 -0.1 -0.2
RoE (%)
23.7 20.9 20.4
RoCE (%)
19.9 17.9 18.0
Payout (%)
24.9 23.7 22.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
23.5 22.5 19.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
18.6 17.4 14.5
Div. Yield (%)
0.9
0.9
1.0
FCF Yield (%)
2.9
2.5
3.2
EV/Sales (x)
4.2
3.7
3.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-21 Dec-20 Mar-20
Promoter
60.2
62.4
65.9
DII
13.2
13.0
11.8
FII
4.4
4.1
3.6
Others
22.2
20.5
18.7
FII Includes depository receipts
ALKEM witnessed strong demand for Vitamin/Minerals/Nutrients (VMNs)
and Gastrointestinal drugs due to increased prescriptions associated with
COVID-19. ALKEM posted strong growth (82% YoY) in May’21 (v/s 60% for
IPM; as per AIOCD data) for VMN therapy. Its Gastrointestinal therapy saw
49% YoY growth in May’21. Anti-Infectives and Pain therapies recovered,
growing over 75% each in these therapies in May’21.
COVID-19 cases are on a downtrend with lockdowns and increased
vaccination rate. The daily new case run-rate is down to 0.13m from a peak
of 0.41m on 6
th
May’21. We expect reduced COVID-19 cases to lead to a
partial reduction in the intensity of lockdown measures across states. The
gradual opening of the economy is also supported with seasonal change,
which would drive higher offtake of Acute therapies like Anti-Infectives. In
fact, the intensity of decline in the Anti-Infective segment has been on a
downtrend over the past eight months.
ALKEM is the second largest trade generics player in India. The business
contributed 20-25% of sales, with robust (over 20% YoY) growth in FY21
led by higher influence by chemists and commensurate availability of trade
generic brands. Momentum is expected to continue over the medium
term, with increasing influence of chemists, particularly in Tier II/III cities.
We expect 15% sales CAGR in DF to INR75.4b (67% of sales) over FY21-23E.
Faster filings/approvals - key to growth in US sales
The US business is expected to grow faster in FY22E, led by higher number
of launches YoY. ALKEM currently has 110 approved ANDAs, half of which
are yet to be commercialized.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Tushar Manudhane
(Tushar.Manudhane@motilaloswal.com)
Bharat Hegde, CFA
(Bharat.Hegde@motilaloswal.com)
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
It has 26 ANDAs under approval and plans to file 10-12 ANDAs annually over the
next two years, which will enable it to build a pipeline of products for future
launches. With products under approval and future filings, ALKEM will have
enough products in the pipeline to sustain its launch target even in the future.
ALKEM has already received a favorable ruling from a lower court for para-IV
litigation on g-Duexis. The final approval from the USFDA and/or favorable
litigation outcome in a higher court would provide potential upside from this
product.
We expect a ramp-up in recent and forthcoming launches to drive 10% US
business CAGR over FY21-23E to USD404m in FY23E.
Valuation and view
On a high base of FY21, we expect 9% earnings CAGR over FY21-23E, led by
steady ramp-up in DF sales and improving margin in the US business.
We continue to value ALKEM at 23x 12-months forward earnings to arrive at our
TP of INR3,730. Reiterate Buy.
We remain positive on ALKEM on: a) better sales outlook in Anti-Infectives, b)
growth in Chronic therapies like Anti-Diabetes and Cardiac, c) sustained cost
reduction on higher usage of digital tools, and d) healthy ANDA pipeline in the
US market.
Exhibit 1: Valuation snapshot
Company
Alembic Pharma
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Biocon
Cadila Health.
Cipla
Divi's Lab.
Dr Reddy's Labs
Gland Pharma
Glenmark Pharma.
Glaxosmit Pharma
Granules India
Ipca Labs.
Jubilant Pharmova
Laurus Labs
Lupin
Solara Active Pharma
Strides Pharma
Sun Pharma.Inds.
Torrent Pharma.
Reco
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Mkt Cap
(USD B)
2.5
5.2
2.4
7.7
6.3
8.9
10.5
15.5
12.0
7.0
2.4
3.5
1.0
3.6
1.8
4.0
7.7
0.9
1.0
22.2
6.5
EPS (INR)
FY21
59.9
134.1
73.9
54.0
5.5
19.8
30.0
75.6
151.8
60.9
35.0
29.4
22.3
88.7
56.6
18.3
26.2
45.0
22.2
25.0
74.9
FY22E
52.8
136.9
80.6
59.4
7.7
25.1
32.2
101.7
198.4
76.4
38.5
37.4
23.1
89.8
60.3
23.8
40.2
78.4
40.9
29.2
86.1
FY23E
56.2
156.3
95.3
66.9
11.2
26.4
37.2
132.1
226.5
96.4
44.1
43.0
27.2
99.4
69.1
29.1
49.5
96.3
50.2
32.2
96.8
EPS Growth
PE (x)
YoY (%)
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E
-11.8
6.4
18.0 16.9
2.1
14.2 22.9 20.1
9.1
18.2 24.2 20.5
9.9
12.7 16.2 14.3
39.2 45.2 50.6 34.9
26.5
5.3
25.4 24.1
7.6
15.4 29.2 25.3
34.6 29.9 41.6 32.0
30.7 14.2 26.3 23.0
25.4 26.1 40.8 32.4
10.0 14.6 16.0 14.0
27.2 14.8 39.9 34.7
3.7
17.4 14.2 12.1
1.2
10.8 22.8 20.5
6.5
14.6 13.8 11.9
30.1 21.8 24.0 19.7
53.7 22.9 30.7 24.9
74.3 22.8 21.9 17.8
84.5 22.7 19.0 15.5
16.5 10.4 23.1 21.0
14.9 12.5 32.8 29.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY22E
12.1
19.6
16.8
9.7
22.2
16.6
17.4
29.1
15.4
30.3
8.6
29.4
8.2
16.8
8.1
15.3
16.5
10.7
9.0
15.8
17.8
ROE (%)
FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E
11.0 29.7 19.3 17.9
17.1 23.7 20.5 20.0
14.9 23.4 21.9 21.9
8.8
16.3 14.8 14.5
16.9
9.2 11.6 15.3
15.2 17.4 17.0 14.8
14.9 13.1 12.7 12.9
22.6 24.2 26.4 28.2
13.1 15.2 17.3 17.1
23.8 20.9 19.2 19.9
7.5
15.0 14.4 14.4
25.2 33.3 36.4 35.0
6.9
27.5 23.4 22.1
14.3 27.1 22.0 20.3
7.4
18.6 21.7 20.6
12.5 45.0 40.7 35.8
13.8
9.0 12.6 14.0
8.4
16.6 22.1 22.7
8.1
7.5 12.5 13.9
13.9 13.1 14.2 13.9
15.9 23.8 23.5 23.1
Source: MOFSL, Company
7 June 2021
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
DF: ALKEM on track to outperform the industry
We expect robust traction in Anti-Infectives, Gastrointestinal, and VMN therapies on
the back of favorable demand and market share gains.
On a MAT basis in May’21, VMN and Gastrointestinal witnessed 37%/19% YoY growth.
The COVID-19 pandemic and strong brand recall is expected to drive momentum in
these therapies over the medium term.
We expect DF sales to accelerate and outperform over the next 12-24 months.
Gastrointestinal and VMN drives growth; Anti-Infectives on a revival path
Anti-Infectives is ALKEM’s
biggest therapy,
contributing 33% to
domestic sales
Gastrointestinal (~19% of sales) outperformed with 18.6% YoY growth on a MAT
basis in May’21. VMN (~15% of sales) led the pack with 37.2% YoY growth, with
outperformance from brands A To Z Ns (up 57.7%) and Uprise D3 (up 84%) on
the back of strong demand.
Over the past five quarters, ALKEM saw strong and consistent performances in
VMN, Gastrointestinal, and Anti-Diabetic therapies. The Anti-Infectives segment,
which was heavily impacted due to COVID-19, has recovered substantially over
the last three quarters to grow at 46.1% YoY in the three-month period ended
May’21.
Exhibit 2: Anti-Infectives back to double-digit growth after a slump in Mar-Aug’20
Anti-Infectives
Gastrointestinal
VMN
Pain/Analgesics
Neuro/CNS
Anti-Diabetic
ALKEM
May’20
-11.1
-3.8
-6.7
-9.0
-12.2
5.0
-7.8
YoY growth in the quarter-ending (%)
Aug’20
Nov’20
Feb’21
May’21
-19.5
-5.6
-6.3
46.1
7.7
16.3
14.4
37.0
22.7
35.0
26.4
68.3
-8.6
-2.4
7.0
52.9
-7.8
-1.4
8.2
21.6
5.8
10.8
21.6
37.4
-3.8
6.5
7.4
45.4
Source: MOFSL, AIOCD
ALKEM faced headwinds in DF over the last 12 months as it derives ~33% of
sales from Anti-Infectives, which has seen a negative impact on account of
COVID-19. There has been substantial improvement in growth over the past few
months as Anti-Infectives have recovered consistently to growth of 86.6% YoY in
May’21 from de-growth of 23.3% YoY in Aug’20.
Secondary sales grew 12.6% on a MAT basis in May’21, led by Volume growth
(5.6%) and price growth (4.6%), while new product launches contributed 2.4%.
Strong brand recall drives growth in VMN, Gastrointestinal, and Anti-
Diabetics
ALKEM witnessed strong outperformance v/s peers in VMN, Gastrointestinal
and Anti-Diabetics. Growth momentum in VMN and Gastrointestinal accelerated
further in May’21.
Uprise D3, A To Z NS, and Sumo L saw strong traction on a MAT basis in May’21,
outperforming their respective therapies significantly.
Gastrointestinal brands Pan and Pan D delivered marginal outperformance v/s
therapy and continued to be the largest molecules, excluding Anti-Infectives.
7 June 2021
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Exhibit 3: ALKEM outperforms in nine out of 16 molecules within Gastrointestinal/VMN/Pain/Anti-Diabetic category
MAT
May’21
Brand
YoY
YoY
growth growth
(Feb’21) (Mar’21)
(%)
(%)
YoY
YoY
CAGR
growth growth
MAT
(Apr’21) (May’21) FY17-
(%)
(%)
21 (%)
Therapy
CAGR
(%) MAT
May’17-
May’21
Pan
Pan D
A To Z Ns
Uprise D3
Ondem
Gemcal
Sumo L
Sumo
Glucoryl M
Hemfer
Enzoflam
A To Z Gold
Glucoryl-Mv
Cheri
Olymprix M
Novogermina
Therapy
Gastrointestinal
Gastrointestinal
VMN
VMN
Gastrointestinal
VMN
Pain
Pain
Anti-Diabetic
Gynecological
Pain
VMN
Anti-Diabetic
Gynecological
Anti-Diabetic
Gastrointestinal
(INR m)
3,427
3,084
2,266
1,319
1,055
912
748
771
521
405
454
513
441
372
392
367
4.6
5.1
12.3
44.3
14.5
24.8
11.5
3.8
-6.8
17.5
2.5
58.6
-5.1
19.9
34.3
64.7
7.7
13.7
28.6
56
13.8
20.5
9.3
4.5
-8.1
45
7.6
98.4
-4.1
22.5
53
84.7
28.8
34.5
95.1
176.1
51.9
20.2
142
71.1
9.7
44.7
21.9
156.4
9.1
93.5
44.4
144
47.2
46.6
115.1
159.4
43.3
7.1
112.6
110.6
11.2
14.5
-1.1
175
23.7
53.6
41.3
65
8.2
9.4
19.3
21.8
6.3
-3
15.6
-4.5
6.8
10.4
3.3
16.8
5.6
11.1
94.6
54.8
7.3
7.3
8.4
8.4
7.3
8.4
5.4
5.4
10.9
4.7
5.4
8.4
10.9
4.7
10.9
7.3
Molecule
CAGR
ALKEM’s
ALKEM’s
(%) MAT
molecule
therapy
May’17- outperformance outperformance
May’21
(%)
(%)
8.3
10.1
13.7
11.8
1.6
-1.7
8.2
-2.1
8.7
10.4
2
13.7
15.8
5.4
40.2
10.5
-0.1
0.9
-0.7
2.1
5.6
10.9
10.1
13.4
4.7
-1
-1.3
-11.4
7.5
10.2
-2.4
-9.9
-2
-4.1
0
5.7
1.3
-2.1
3.1
8.4
-10.3
-5.3
5.7
6.4
54.4
83.7
44.3
47.5
Source: MOFSL, AIOCD
ALKEM outperforms peers in Anti-Infectives
ALKEM registered a CAGR of 5.1% in anti-infective therapy from May’17-May’21
(on MAT basis). It has outperformed peers in 10 out of the 13 Anti-Infective
molecules over a five-year period from May’17 to May’21. The company
managed to outperform therapy in eight of these molecules over the same
period.
Strong performances by Clavam, Xone, and Merosure softened the impact of
COVID-related headwinds on ALKEM’s Anti-Infectives portfolio.
All brands reported higher YoY growth rates in May’21 v/s the first three months
of 2021 due to: 1) lower base of May’20, and 2) strong resurgence in demand
across Anti-Infectives.
Exhibit 4: Outperforms in eight out of 11 molecules in Anti-Infectives
YoY
Growth (%)
(Feb’21)
YoY
Growth (%)
(Mar’21)
YoY
Growth (%)
(Apr’21)
YoY
Growth (%)
(May’21)
CAGR (%)
MAT
May’17-21
Brand
Clavam
Taxim O
Xone
Pipzo
Taxim
Xone XP
Swich
Merosure
Zocef
Traxol S
Traxol
MAT May’21
(INR m)
3,127
1,983
1,242
1,100
1,051
564
711
737
593
355
431
-15.1
-30
-1.1
1
-5.3
4.5
-16.2
21.5
-18.7
11.5
-6.3
-13
-19.4
18.1
38.6
4.6
27
-5.8
49.2
-8.9
15.6
3.2
18.9
26
87.4
232.9
53
102.1
62.2
438.7
50.2
81.9
59.5
31.8
34.3
94.2
235.7
73.7
130.2
75.8
404.4
80.3
125.2
164.4
6.3
-0.2
13.8
7.9
-6.8
2.5
2.7
37
-6.3
18.5
11.5
Molecule
CAGR
(%) MAT
May’17-
May’21
1.8
-1.2
4.9
6.6
-6.5
3.3
-3.2
9.2
4.4
11.1
4.9
Molecule level
Out-
performance
(%)
4.5
1
8.9
1.3
-0.3
-0.8
5.9
27.8
-10.7
7.4
6.6
Therapy level
Out-
performance
(%)
1.2
-5.3
8.7
2.8
-11.8
-2.6
-2.4
31.9
-11.4
13.4
6.4
Source: MOFSL, AIOCD
7 June 2021
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Expect ALKEM to deliver 15% sales CAGR over FY21-23E in the DF segment
Sustained growth momentum in Chronic/Pain Management/VMNs and recovery
in Anti-infectives to aid better sales growth over FY21-23E. Growth momentum
in trade generics is expected to continue with increasing influence of chemists,
especially in Tier II/III cities.
Exhibit 5: Expect robust growth trajectory in DF sales from FY22 onwards
29.1
19.7
15.6
6.5
DF sales (INR b)
YoY growth (%)
17.0
4.5
13.0
8.6
11.9
28.3
FY15
36.5
FY16
42.2
FY17
44.9
FY18
48.7
FY19
54.5
FY20
57.0
FY21
66.7
FY22E
75.4
FY23E
Source: MOFSL, Company
ALKEM is reducing opex in the DF segment, with increased usage of digital tools
for marketing and promotion of launches as well as its existing portfolio. A
revival in sales and a controlled cost structure will help it maintain superior
profitability in the DF segment.
7 June 2021
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
US: Continued execution, new launches key catalysts
US sales were impacted in 2HFY21 due to steep price erosion in select base products.
It has a robust ANDA pipeline and healthy launches lined up in FY22.
We expect US sales to revive over the next two years.
Expect 10% US sales CAGR over FY21-23E in CC terms
We expect 10% US sales CAGR (25% of sales) in CC terms, led by a ramp-up in
recent and new launches.
Exhibit 6: Expect 10% US sales CAGR to USD404m over FY21-23E
US sales (USD m)
106
FY15
150
FY16
180
FY17
210
FY18
271
FY19
310
FY20
331
FY21
361
FY22E
404
FY23E
Source: MOFSL, Company
As of FY21-end, it had 126 approved ANDAs in the US, including 16 tentative
approvals, and 26 ANDAs under approval. It received 25 ANDA approvals in
FY21. The management has guided at 10-12 ANDA filings and launches per year
in the US, with higher number of launches in FY22 than it did in FY21. This will
help grow the US business in low double-digits.
ALKEM has received over 20 ANDA approvals in the US across different dosage
forms like OSDs, Delayed/Extended Release tablets, suspensions, solutions, etc.
in the last 12 months.
The launches include a mix of low-medium competition and me-too products.
We expect the ramp-up in products launched towards the end of FY20 and new
launches to drive 10% US sales CAGR to USD404m over FY21-23E.
Potential upside from g-Duexis to the US business
ALKEM had received a favorable ruling from a district court for g-Duexis.
Innovator has appealed in higher court. In addition to Alkem, Teva is another
player having Para IV challenge on this product. Previously, Par Pharmaceutical
had settled with Horizon Pharma to launch g-Duexis in the US from 1
st
Jan’23.
The overall market size if USD150m. This can be limited competition opportunity
subject to USFDA approval and/or favorable litigation outcome.
Assuming a five player market (including authorized generic) for g-Duexis, we
expect ALKEM to garner a minimum USD8-10m in g-Duexis sales in the US.
7 June 2021
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Exhibit 7: Notable approvals over the past 12 months
Molecule
Tolvaptan
Morphine Sulfate
Cefixime
Rufinamide
Deferasirox
Chlordiazepoxide Hydrochloride, Clidinium Bromide
Cefdinir
Cefdinir
Dosage form
Tablet
Tablet
For suspension
For suspension
Granule
Capsule
Capsule
For suspension
Brand name
Jynarque
Kadian
Suprax
Banzel
Jadenu Sprinkle
Librax
Omnicef
Omnicef
Competitors
Two
Three
Three
Four
Five
Five
Seven
Seven
Approval date
th
19 May’20
3
rd
Dec’20
19
th
Feb’21
23
rd
Feb’21
14
th
Jul’20
26 Apr’21
19
th
Feb’21
19
th
Feb’21
Source: MOFSL, AIOCD
Filings impacted by COVID-19 in FY21, to pick up in FY22E
COVID-19 and the lockdowns in late 4QFY20 and 1QFY21 impacted the pace of
filings significantly in FY21 and to a lesser extent in FY20. The rate of annual
filings declined to nine in FY21 from 23 in FY19.
With an increase in vaccination, we expect a return to normalcy in 2HFY22. We
expect the pace of filings in FY22 to rise YoY. Due to the second COVID wave in
India, there could be some delay in the pace of filings returning to pre-COVID
levels.
ALKEM has guided at double-digit launches in the US in FY22, higher than that
seen in FY21. With roughly half of approved products yet to be commercialized,
we expect ALKEM to deliver on its launch guidance.
Exhibit 8: Expect 10% CAGR in US sales to USD404m over FY21-23E
ANDA filings
19
12
14
9
5
12
15
Final Approvals
23
18
16
9
19
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Source: MOFSL, Company
7 June 2021
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Valuation and view
We expect ALKEM to deliver 9% earnings CAGR over FY21-23E, with a recovery
in DF and margin expansion in the US business.
We expect ALKEM to deliver strong growth in DF, with: a) a recovery in Anti-
Infectives, b) growth in Chronic therapies like Anti-Diabetes and Cardiac (~50%
share in IPM Chronic therapies), and c) growth in the US business from a greater
quantum of launches over the next two years v/s FY21.
Continued efforts toward cost optimization and savings from digital initiatives
(such as digital conferences) is expected to reduce opex structurally in the DF
segment, which will help sustain profitability over the next two years.
We continue to value ALKEM at 23x 12-months forward earnings to arrive at our
TP of INR3,730. Maintain
Buy.
Max (x)
-1SD
37.5
29.3
23.3
21.3
Exhibit 9: P/E Chart
42
32
22
12
P/E (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
Exhibit 10: P/B Chart
6
5
4
3
2
P/B (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
5.4
4.0
3.5
Max (x)
-1SD
4.5
4.0
17.2
15.9
3.1
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
7 June 2021
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Story in charts
Exhibit 11: Expect 12% revenue CAGR over FY21-23E
Revenue (INR b)
Exhibit 12: Expect 15% India sales CAGR over FY21-23E
DF sales (INR b)
37.9
50.5
58.5
64.3
73.6
83.4
88.5
99.2 110.8
28.3
36.5
42.2
44.9
48.7
54.5
57.0
66.7
75.4
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 13: Expect 10% sales CAGR in the US over FY21-23E
US sales (INRb )
53.2
53.3
38.8
21.5
6.5
9.9
12.0
16.0
19.0
22.0
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 14: EBITDA margin to stabilize above 22%
EBITDA (INR b)
17.1
EBITDA margin (%)
22.7
14.4
16.9
16.4
15.2
17.9
21.3
22.3
13.6
13.7
11.4
24.5
10.5
27.1
9.0
29.5
5.4
8.5
10.0
10.6
11.2
15.0
20.1
21.1
24.7
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 15: Surplus cash to keep RoCE in check
RoE (%)
25.2
18.4
18.9
21.9
20.1
15.1
13.0
14.8
13.6
17.6
RoCE (%)
23.7
20.9
17.9
20.4
18.0
Exhibit 16: Expect 9.5% earnings CAGR over FY21-23E on
high base
EPS (INR/sh)
19.7
19.9
14.6
39
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
70
75
59
64
95
134
140
161
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Source: Company, MOFSL
7 June 2021
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Financials and valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Less: Mionrity Interest
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY15
37,887
21.2
32,442
5,445
14.4
703
4,742
811
1,810
5,741
-574
5,167
85
10.5
0
4,625
5,139
18.1
13.6
FY16
50,479
33.2
41,947
8,533
16.9
933
7,599
712
2,397
9,284
0
9,284
1,762
19.0
114
7,409
8,419
63.8
16.7
FY17
58,525
15.9
48,536
9,990
17.1
1,012
8,978
452
1,120
9,646
0
9,646
600
6.2
126
8,920
8,920
6.0
15.2
FY18
64,312
9.9
54,028
10,566
16.4
1,430
9,136
553
960
9,542
0
9,542
2,876
30.1
75
6,309
7,040
-21.1
10.9
FY19
73,572
14.4
62,401
11,171
15.2
1,932
9,239
546
877
9,570
-23
9,547
1,810
19.0
131
7,606
7,629
8.4
10.4
FY20
83,444
13.4
68,484
14,960
17.9
2,348
12,612
651
1,042
13,004
-406
12,598
1,105
8.8
222
11,271
11,407
49.5
13.7
FY21
88,505
6.1
68,426
20,079
22.7
2,746
17,333
589
1,867
18,611
-190
18,421
2,243
12.2
328
15,850
16,031
40.5
18.1
INR million
FY22E
99,179
12.1
78,054
21,125
21.3
2,806
18,319
381
1,975
19,913
0
19,913
2,788
14.0
371
16,754
16,754
4.5
16.9
FY23E
110,827
11.7
86,113
24,714
22.3
3,003
21,712
433
2,090
23,368
0
23,368
3,739
16.0
419
19,210
19,210
14.7
17.3
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax assets
Appl. of Funds
FY15
239
29,752
29,991
857
1,256
13,059
45,162
11,429
3,421
0
4,808
33,008
7,842
5,271
7,908
11,987
7,796
4,619
1,667
1,510
25,212
292
45,162
FY16
239
36,681
36,920
950
10
5,876
43,756
10,310
4,185
1,724
5,086
28,878
9,094
5,675
7,809
6,300
11,589
5,805
3,908
1,877
17,288
5,162
43,756
FY17
239
44,437
44,676
1,152
5
6,539
52,373
13,945
4,026
2,993
5,530
32,225
12,060
7,136
3,993
9,036
13,308
7,414
3,628
2,266
18,917
6,963
52,373
FY18
239
48,399
48,638
1,216
17
8,920
58,790
18,733
4,103
3,810
4,443
39,012
14,422
10,805
5,768
8,017
17,866
9,607
5,517
2,742
21,145
6,556
58,790
FY19
239
54,154
54,393
1,326
3
9,026
64,748
21,056
4,248
4,930
3,236
41,535
14,999
12,484
6,616
7,437
17,334
9,623
4,436
3,275
24,202
7,076
64,748
FY20
239
61,368
61,607
1,483
0
16,628
79,717
23,063
6,017
3,630
2,614
54,784
18,188
16,494
10,922
9,180
19,716
9,541
6,108
4,067
35,068
9,326
79,717
FY21
239
73,528
73,767
1,813
0
17,336
92,916
22,339
5,591
3,933
3,328
68,923
23,124
16,072
19,905
9,822
22,277
10,694
6,709
4,874
46,647
11,079
92,916
INR million
FY22E
239
86,312
86,551
1,813
0
17,336
105,699
24,930
5,591
3,037
3,328
81,299
22,026
21,738
26,528
11,007
23,563
10,051
7,518
5,994
57,736
11,079
105,699
FY23E
239
101,197
101,436
1,813
0
17,336
120,585
26,456
5,591
2,707
3,328
96,983
24,772
24,595
35,317
12,299
25,559
10,617
8,401
6,542
71,424
11,079
120,585
7 June 2021
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Debt/Equity
FY15
38.7
48.9
251
4.0
12.3
81.4
64.4
12.5
10.1
70.0
0.1
15.9
18.4
14.6
13.6
0.8
76
49
45
0.2
FY16
70.4
78.2
309
12.7
24.7
44.7
40.2
10.2
7.4
43.9
0.4
39.5
25.2
18.9
20.0
1.2
66
40
42
-0.1
FY17
74.6
83.1
374
6.0
9.7
42.2
37.9
8.4
6.5
37.9
0.2
-13.7
21.9
20.1
24.4
1.1
75
45
46
0.1
FY18
58.9
70.9
407
15.0
34.3
53.4
44.4
7.7
5.9
35.9
0.5
-34.4
15.1
13.0
15.1
1.1
82
61
55
0.1
FY19
63.8
80.0
455
15.0
28.5
49.3
39.3
6.9
5.1
33.9
0.5
21.1
14.8
13.6
15.8
1.1
74
62
48
0.0
FY20
95.4
115.1
515
17.9
22.5
33.0
27.4
6.1
4.6
25.5
0.6
19.9
19.7
17.6
20.5
1.0
80
72
42
0.1
FY21
134.1
157.1
617
27.8
24.9
23.5
20.0
5.1
4.2
18.6
0.9
90.4
23.7
19.9
23.7
1.0
95
66
44
0.0
FY22E
140.1
163.6
724
28.0
23.7
22.5
19.2
4.3
3.7
17.4
0.9
78.4
20.9
17.9
22.7
0.9
81
78
37
-0.1
FY23E
160.7
185.8
848
30.5
22.5
19.6
16.9
3.7
3.2
14.5
1.0
99.3
20.4
18.0
24.0
0.9
82
79
35
-0.2
Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Add/(less) Forex diff in Cash and Cash eq
Closing Cash and Cash Eq.
Bank Balances
Total Cash and Cash Eq.
FY15
5,142
703
-1,196
-1,056
-990
2,603
652
3,254
-1,354
1,901
-1,046
30
-2,369
871
-793
-567
-29
-518
368
1,008
20
1,396
6,512
7,908
FY16
9,284
933
-599
-1,982
101
7,737
-478
7,258
-2,535
4,724
325
4,074
1,864
-6,714
-713
-1,845
0
-9,273
-151
1,396
25
1,270
6,539
7,809
FY17
9,646
1,012
-592
-2,640
-2,626
4,801
-90
4,711
-6,344
-1,633
0
3,484
-2,859
121
-636
-863
0
-1,379
473
1,270
-77
1,666
2,326
3,992
FY18
9,260
1,430
-234
-2,032
-5,732
2,692
-32
2,660
-6,770
-4,110
868
2,330
-3,572
3,574
-553
-2,176
1,098
846
-66
1,666
67
1,667
4,101
5,767
FY19
9,547
1,932
134
-2,511
-1,403
7,698
98
7,797
-5,269
2,527
1,235
871
-3,164
-1,057
-546
-2,186
649
-3,789
843
1,667
-20
2,490
4,126
6,616
FY20
12,598
2,528
19
-2,834
-6,472
5,839
12
5,851
-3,477
2,374
458
-4,395
-7,414
6,031
-651
-4,396
-193
791
-771
2,490
40
1,759
9,163
10,922
FY21
18,421
2,746
-312
-4,007
-3,412
13,436
-787
12,649
-1,845
10,805
3
-8,144
-9,985
1,397
-536
-3,348
-230
-2,718
-54
1,759
1,705
18,199
19,905
FY22E
19,913
2,806
-1,593
-2,788
-4,466
13,872
0
13,872
-4,500
9,372
0
1,975
-2,525
0
-381
-3,971
-371
-4,723
6,624
1,705
8,329
18,199
26,528
INR million
FY23E
23,368
3,003
-1,657
-3,739
-4,899
16,076
0
16,076
-4,200
11,876
0
2,090
-2,110
0
-433
-4,325
-419
-5,177
8,789
8,329
17,117
18,199
35,317
7 June 2021
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
NOTES
7 June 2021
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial
products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are
available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a
registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National
Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance
Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.
Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report
should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific
merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the
website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated
from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability
or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst
Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of
research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under
applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers
Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any
brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is
intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as
"major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which
this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration
provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-
dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this
chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL
in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,
of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the
SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
7 June 2021
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Alkem
********************************************************************************************************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
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in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
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the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make
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separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN
no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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