5 July 2021
India Strategy
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Midcaps hit a home run!
Several benchmarks being reset; risk-reward metric not lucrative
The outperformance of midcap and smallcap indices have gone past their
earlier benchmarks on multiple fronts – consecutive months of positive
returns, 12-month rolling returns gap v/s the Nifty, relative valuations, and
contribution to overall market capitalization.
There exists a sharp divergence in valuations within these indices, with the gap
between the top and bottom quintile expanding.
While the midcap/smallcap valuations are rich and no longer lucrative on the
risk-reward metric, the gradual unlocking of the economy and improved
demand backdrop still offer bottom-up opportunities. Consistent earnings
delivery v/s expectations is critical for further outperformance in our view.
Refer our 4QFY21
results review
Long stretch of monthly positive returns in midcap/smallcap indices
Refer our Return of
commodity inflation report
The recent sharp gains in midcap and smallcap indices have created new
benchmarks.
The NSE Midcap 100/NSE Smallcap 100 indices have generated consecutive
positive monthly returns of 102%/67% in the last 13 months/8 months. This is
the best such period of consecutive months of positive returns for the NSE
Midcap 100. The Nifty Smallcap 100 has bettered this only once in the past.
The NSE Smallcap 100/NSE Midcap 100 index has outperformed the Nifty in
10/9 out of 12 months.
Nifty’s underperformance v/s the midcap index on a 12-month rolling basis is at
the highest levels since the GFC. For the smallcap index, this rolling 12 months
underperformance is at the same level as during the GFC.
Despite these recent sharp gains, the NSE Midcap 100 and NSE Smallcap 100
indices have underperformed the Nifty since their previous peaks of Dec’17. The
Nifty has gained 51% since Dec’17, while the NSE Midcap 100/NSE Smallcap 100
have returned 28%/6%.
M-cap contribution of midcap/smallcap index still away from its peak
The recent broad-based rally has led to a sharp increase in m-cap contribution
from the midcap and smallcap universe.
The m-cap of the NSE Midcap 100 index now contributes 12.1% to overall m-
cap, up from 9.8% in Mar’20. The m-cap for smallcap companies, as a
percentage of overall m-cap, has increased to 3.7% at present from 2.7% in
Mar’20.
Peak contribution for the NSE Midcap 100/NSE Smallcap 100 index is 17.4%/4%
of total m-cap.
In terms of absolute m-cap, NSE Midcap 100/NSE Smallcap 100 are at the
highest ever levels of INR28t/INR8.5t.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Gautam Duggad - Research Analyst
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Jayant Parasramka - Research Analyst
(Jayant.Parasramka@MotilalOswal.com)