1QFY22
August 2021
India Strategy
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1QFY22 interim earnings review
In-line; management commentaries indicate recovery is setting in
Refer to our June’21
Quarter Preview
Key 1QFY22 result highlights
108 MOFSL Universe and 31 Nifty companies have announced their results as of 31
st
July’21. Companies that have reported earnings thus far comprise (a) 62% of est. PAT
for the MOFSL Universe, (b) 68% of est. PAT for the Nifty, (c) 56% of India's market
capitalization, and (d) 77% of the Nifty 50 index weight.
The 1QFY22 earnings season has been in-line, benefitting from the lower base of
1QFY21, as lockdowns in 1QFY22 were localized and less stringent v/s 1QFY21. Nifty
profits for the 31 companies that have posted their results have grown 70% YoY (v/s
exp. 64% growth). On the other hand, for the 108 companies in the MOFSL Universe,
profit growth stood at 71% YoY (v/s exp. 70% growth). Among the sectors, Cement,
Metals, Healthcare, and O&G have outperformed; Autos, NBFC, and Capital Goods have
underperformed; and the performances of IT, Consumer, and Private Banks have been
in line with expectations. 25 companies from our Coverage Universe have seen
downgrades of >5%, while 22 have seen upgrades of >5%, leading to a 1:1 downgrade
to upgrade ratio.
Marginal downward revision in Nifty EPS: Nifty EPS for FY22E/FY23E has seen a
marginal 1.1%/0.7% downgrade to INR725/INR862 (from INR733/INR868). 70% of the
FY22 downgrade has been driven by Tata Motors.
Key drivers of 1QFY22 performance: [1] IT – This sector has reported one of the best
sequential performances, led by strong sequential revenue growth of 4.5% (USD) and
the highest ever deal pipeline, providing earnings visibility going forward. Management
commentaries have indicated a strong tech spending environment with an elevated
focus on cloud migration / digital transformation deals. [2] Cement – Strong price
realization and better cost control have driven performance in this sector. The volume
decline in northern/central India was lower than expected vis-à-vis southern India,
which had stricter lockdowns. [3] Autos – High RM inflation and operating deleverage
have impacted most of the results in 1QFY22. OEMs (MSIL, BJAUT, TTMT, and TVS) have
reported a commodity cost impact of 3–4pp QoQ.
KEY SECTORAL INSIGHTS: [1] Technology: 1QFY22 marks the fourth quarter of robust
QoQ revenue growth; 8 of 13 companies have beaten our earnings expectations. Strong
demand has led to one of the highest ever headcount additions of 71k in 1Q in recent
history. [2] Cement: Cement companies’ earnings have been aided by strong price
realizations. Companies have offset higher power, fuel, and freight costs with higher
price realization and cost control. [3] Consumer: Most companies have reported
double-digit sales growth, albeit on a soft base, as companies were better prepared to
deal with the lockdowns. The performances of APNT, JUBI, UNSP, and UBBL have been
particularly robust despite the limitations
.
[4] Banks: Fresh slippage from the Retail
segment has impacted most private banks, although the impact on asset quality has
been less severe than that seen during the first wave. Banks, however, are carrying
additional provision buffers, which should limit the impact on credit cost.
Nifty: Sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT has come in at 48%/32%/70%/70% YoY (v/s est.
45%/29%/63%/64% YoY). 12 of 31 companies have beaten our PAT expectations, while
11 have missed.
Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Deven Mistry
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com) |
Jayant Parasramka
(Jayant.Parasramka@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors
October 2018
are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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