Sector Update |
Update | Logistics
7 October 2021
Sector
India Logistics
Technology
L
ogistics
T
racker
Logistics activity remains strong in Sep’21; higher volumes see
freight rates improve
E-way bill generation continues to be strong for the fourth consecutive month (+3%
MoM in Sep’21), indicating sustained improvement in road freight operations post the
lifting of COVID-related restrictions.
Freight rates have been rising for the last few months and improved further by ~5%
MoM for key routes in Sep’21. This was driven by a sharp pickup in volumes in the last
couple of months, led by the economic unlock. The increase in rates was despite no
major change in diesel prices during the month. Capacity utilization for trucks currently
stands at ~80% levels.
Volumes handled at major ports came in strong at 54mmt (flat YoY), driven by growth
in container traffic and petroleum, oil, and lubricants (P.O.L). Growth was negatively
impacted by the severe container shortage and elevated sea freight rates.
Robust e-way bill generations in Sep’21 indicate strong volume pickup and
improved truck operations
Key Indicators and YoY growth (%)
Sep’21
E-way Bills (in m)
Rail Traffic
(m tonnes)
Port Volumes
(m tonnes)
Diesel
consumption
(m tonnes)
67.9
106
53.8
YoY(%)
18.3
3.6
0.4
In Sep’21, e-way bill generations grew 3% MoM to ~68m v/s 66m generations
reported in Aug’21. E-way bill generations have been growing for the last four
months, indicating the sustained improvement in truck operations post the easing of
COVID-related restrictions. Overall e-way bill generations grew 18% YoY. Inter-state
grew 22% YoY, while intra-state grew 16% YoY in Sep’21.
The Indian Railways reported 4% YoY growth in EXIM container volumes, lower than
the overall growth in container volumes handled at ports. The Railways’ market
5.5
1.0
share in EXIM containers stood at ~33% in Sep’21 (~35% in Sep’20). Domestic
Source: GSTN, Indian Railways, IPA,
container volumes handled by the Indian Railways grew 36% YoY in Sept’21.
PPAC, MOFSL
EXIM container volumes by Railways up ~4% YoY in Sep’21
Traffic handled at major ports remains flat YoY in Sep’21, after 11% YoY
growth in Aug’21
Relaxations in lockdown rules after the second COVID wave led to a pickup in
industrial activity. This drove volume growth to 11% YoY in Aug’21 (7% YoY in
Jul’21). Volumes came in flat YoY in Sep’21. Container/P.O.L showed growth of
11%/10% YoY in Sep’21, followed by Coal (+5%) and Fertilizer (+5%). This was offset
by sharp decline in Iron Ore / Other Cargo by -60% /-1%. Volumes de-grew 7% v/s
August. Among the major ports, Ennore reported a sharp jump of 83% YoY, followed
by Cochin (+25%), New Mangalore (+17%), JNPT (+12%), Mormugao (+9%). On the
other hand, Paradip and Vizag reported decline of 22% and 18% YoY, respectively.
Container cargo (TEU basis) grew 12% YoY in Sep’21.
Freight rates up 4–5% in Sep’21; fourth consecutive month of increase
The recent increase is driven by a) wholesalers piling up inventory in the wake of the
festival season and b) the brisk arrival of fruits and vegetables in agricultural
produce market committees (APMCs). Truck utilization stood healthy at 80% levels
during the month. June–September saw cumulative rental price increases of 25–
30% as per IFTRT on select routes. The rental increase in September was despite no
major change in diesel prices (except INR1/ltr change towards the end of the
month).
Alok Deora – Research analyst
(Alok.Deora@Motilaloswal.com)
Research analyst: Dhirendra Patro
(Dhirendra.Patro@motilaloswal.com)
7 October 2021
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P
1
Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
Exhibit 1: Freight rates continue to improve with higher volumes
(Base of 100)
130
115
100
85
70
Freight Index
Diesel Index
Source: IFTRT, MOFSL
Exhibit 2: E-way bill generations improve in Sep’21; near peak levels of Mar’21
(in m)
57.4
22.8
34.6
64.2
26.3
37.9
57.7
23.0
34.7
Intrastate
64.2
25.8
38.4
62.9
25.1
37.8
63.8
25.5
38.4
Interstate
71.2
58.8
28.4
42.8
23.0
35.8
40.0
14.8
25.1
34.0
Total
54.7
20.7
64.2
24.9
39.3
65.9
26.0
39.9
67.9
27.9
40.0
Source: GSTN, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Diesel consumption flat on YoY basis (m tonnes)
Diesel Consumption
7.0
5.5
7.0
7.2
6.8
7.2
6.6
6.7
5.3
6.2
6.14
5.6
5.5
Source: PPAC, MOFSL
7 October 2021
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
Exhibit 4: Major port volumes steady YoY; decline 7% MoM (m tonnes)
Major Port volumes
59
63
64
58
72
62
60
58
55
58
54
54
56
Source: IPA, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Container volumes at major ports remain steady MoM (000’TEUs)
Container Volumes at Major Ports
1018
939
814
865
832
930
957
942
909
902
923
912
887
Source: IPA, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Railway EXIM container volumes flat YoY (m tonnes)
Rail EXIM Container
4.8
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.0
4.6
5.1
4.7
4.3
5.2
4.7
4.5
4.5
Source: Indian Railways, MOFSL
7 October 2021
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
Exhibit 7: Volume trend across major ports over the years (m tonnes)
CAGR
Port
Kandla (Deendayal)
Paradip
Mumbai
J.N.P.T.
Vizag
Chennai
V.O. Chidambaranar
Others
Total Cargo
FY17
105
89
63
62
61
50
38
179
648
FY18
110
102
63
66
64
52
37
186
679
FY19
115
109
61
71
65
53
34
190
699
FY20
122
113
61
68
73
47
36
185
705
FY21
118
115
53
65
70
44
32
177
673
FY 17-21
4.70%
6.50%
-4.10%
1.10%
3.40%
-3.50%
-4.70%
3.50%
3.80%
Source: IPA, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: Contribution of major ports (m tonnes)
Ports
Kandla
Paradip
Mumbai
JNPT
Vizag
Chennai
Kolkata
New Mangalore
V.O. Chidambaranar
Ennore
Cochin
Mormugao
Total
Jul'21
9.2
9.2
4.3
5.9
5.7
3.8
4.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
2.3
1.3
55.0
Aug'21
10.3
9.3
5.0
6.0
5.1
3.8
4.6
2.7
3.3
3.3
2.8
1.4
57.6
Sep'21
10.3
7.3
4.5
5.9
4.8
3.8
4.4
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.2
1.0
53.8
Sep’21 Port
Contribution
19.19%
13.53%
8.34%
10.98%
8.94%
7.13%
8.10%
4.92%
5.51%
5.63%
5.89%
1.86%
Source: IPA, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: Container volumes
Port Name
Kolkata
Paradip
Vizag
Ennore
Chennai
V.O.Chidambaranar
Cochin
New Mangalore
Mormugao
Mumbai
J.N.P.T.
Deendayal
All Major Ports
Tonnage ('000 tonnes)
Sep'21
988
12
737
774
2,497
1,369
938
212
5
26
5,336
598
13,492
Sep'20
1011
22
784
169
2,363
1278
854
189
38
22
4,707
716
12,153
% YoY
-2.3
-45.5
-6.0
358.0
5.7
7.1
9.8
12.2
-86.8
18.2
13.4
-16.5
11.0
% MoM
-4.4
-25.0
2.4
-4.0
-0.8
1.9
-4.7
32.5
-28.6
13.0
-2.0
-23.0
-2.5
Sep'21
61
0
41
40
129
66
68
15
1
2
452
37
912
62
1
48
9
122
67
63
13
3
2
380
43
813
TEUs ('000)
Sep'20
% YoY
-1.6
-100.0
-14.6
344.4
5.7
-1.5
7.9
15.4
-66.7
0.0
18.9
-14.0
12.2
% MoM
-4.7
-100.0
-2.4
-4.8
-1.5
-1.5
-1.4
66.7
NA
0.0
-0.2
-14.0
-1.2
Source: IPA, MOFSL
7 October 2021
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
Exhibit 10: Cargo performance in Sep’21
P.O.L. and Other
('000 tonnes)
Sep'21
Kolkata
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Paradip
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Vizag
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Ennore
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Chennai
Sep'20
% YoY growth
V.O.
Chidambaranar
Sep'21
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Cochin
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
New Mangalore
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Mormugao
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Mumbai
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
J.N.P.T.
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
Deendayal
Sep'20
% YoY growth
Sep'21
All Major Ports
Sep'20
% YoY growth
liquid
1,423
1,190
19.6
2,418
2,456
-1.5
1,293
1,360
-4.9
478
376
27.1
888
1,182
-24.9
152
102
49.0
2,059
1,545
33.3
1,732
1,741
-0.5
57
28
103.6
2,895
2,882
0.5
535
485
10.3
6,001
4,755
26.2
19,931
18,102
10.1
Iron Ore
20
327
-93.9
804
2,926
-72.5
813
1,612
-49.6
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
214
161
32.9
105
130
-19.2
356
559
-36.3
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
2,312
5,715
-59.5
Fertilizer
50
94
-46.8
577
449
28.5
134
211
-36.5
0
0
0.0
1
24
-95.8
150
40
275.0
42
0
NA
47
45
4.4
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
274
356
-23.0
1,275
1,219
4.6
Coal
795
1,158
-31.3
2,767
2,857
-3.2
862
936
-7.9
1,426
991
43.9
0
0
0.0
979
1,217
-19.6
0
0
0.0
339
79
329.1
527
453
16.3
601
549
9.5
0
0
0.0
1,926
1,502
28.2
10,222
9,742
4.9
Container
988
1,011
-2.3
12
22
-45.5
737
784
-6.0
774
169
358.0
2,497
2,363
5.7
1,369
1,278
7.1
938
854
9.8
212
189
12.2
5
38
-86.8
26
22
18.2
5,336
4707
13.4
598
716
-16.5
13,492
12,153
11.0
Other Cargo
1,081
1,165
-7.2
699
622
12.4
969
922
5.1
348
121
187.6
450
386
16.6
312
229
36.2
129
138
-6.5
104
47
121.3
305
268
13.8
609
289
110.7
33
63
-47.6
1,523
2,378
-36.0
6,562
6,628
-1.0
Agg Cargo
4,357
4,945
-11.9
7,277
9,332
-22.0
4,808
5,825
-17.5
3,026
1,657
82.6
3,836
3,955
-3.0
2,962
2,866
3.3
3,168
2,537
24.9
2,648
2,262
17.1
999
917
8.9
4,487
4,301
4.3
5,904
5,255
12.4
10,322
9,707
6.3
53,794
53,559
0.4
Source: IPA, MOFSL
7 October 2021
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
NOTES
7 October 2021
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
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7 October 2021
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Logistics
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information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in
all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its
affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such
misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person
accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel
No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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