13 February 2024

India Politics

ELECTION

2024

General election opinion

polls 2024

India Today: Mood of the Nation

Poll

Alliance

Seats Seat Share (%)

NDA

335

62

UPA

166

30

OTHERS

42

8

Times Now- Lok Sabha Pre poll

survey

Alliance

Seats Seat Share (%)

NDA

366

67

UPA

104

20

OTHERS

73

13

Pre-poll surveys predict Modi 3.0

Political continuity complements macro and micro tailwinds



India is set to enter the election season with the forthcoming Loksabha elections

in Apr/May’24. Equity markets will also keep a watch on the outcome of this

election, as it will have a significant bearing on the short-term market behavior.

In this context, two important pre-poll surveys by

India Today

and

Times Now

predict a more than comfortable majority (272+ seats) for the incumbent

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),

giving

Prime Minister Narendra Modi

a third

consecutive term.



India Today’s

Mood of the Nation Poll

predicts that the BJP-led National

Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 335 out of the total 543 Loksabha

seats, with the BJP alone expected to win 304 seats (vs. 303 in 2019). The

opposition alliance, called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance

(INDIA; erstwhile UPA), is likely to win 166 seats, with the primary opposition

party Congress expected to win 71 seats (vs. 52 in 2019). Other parties are

expected to win the remaining 42 seats. The NDA is expected to garner a vote

share of 45% in 2024.



Times Now’s

Loksabha Pre-Poll Survey

predicts that the NDA is likely to lead

with 366 seats, followed by the UPA with 104 and others with 73 seats. The vote

share of the NDA is expected to be at 41.8%.



In the current Loksabha, the incumbent BJP-led NDA has 353 seats. The BJP won

282 and 303 seats in 2014 and 2019 Loksabha elections, respectively, forming a

single-party majority government after 30 years in 2014 and then retaining it in

2019. Thus, if it manages to secure 272+ seats again in the 2024 elections, it will

be the third consecutive victory of the BJP with the full majority under Prime

Minister Modi. In India’s post-independence history of 77 years, this feat was

achieved only once earlier, by India’s first Prime Minister, Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru,

in 1962.



As per the Times Now pre-poll survey, the BJP is expected to make a clean

sweep (winning 100% seats) in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Delhi and

Uttarakhand. It is expected to win 28/29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 77/80 seats

in Uttar Pradesh (largest state in terms of seat representation in Loksabha),

13/14 seats in Jharkhand, 9/10 seats in Haryana, 39/48 seats in Maharashtra,

and 35/40 seats in Bihar.



As per the India Today survey, the BJP is expected to make a clean sweep in

Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh while winning

24/28 in Karnataka, 27/29 in MP, 72/80 in UP, 32/40 in Bihar, 12/14 in Assam,

12/14 in Jharkhand, and 22/48 in Maharashtra.



However, we note that alliance talks are in progress in both NDA and INDIA

coalitions blocks. Moreover, the seat-sharing arrangements between alliance

partners have not been finalized yet and thus the final composition of respective

alliances may look different, even though it may not materially change the

direction of the election outcome, in our view. The opposition alliance, INDIA,

which was established in Jun’23 to create an index of opposition unity to take on

the BJP/NDA in 2024 polls, has seen the exit of some important coalition

Refer to our state election

results note of Dec’23

Gautam Duggad

– Research Analyst

(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on

www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,

Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

India Politics

partners, e.g., Janata Dal United in Bihar. Also, some of the constituents of

INDIA have announced to fight elections separately on their own and not in

alliance (e.g. Trinmul Congress in West Bengal and Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and

Haryana).



In the recently held state elections in Dec’23, the BJP won three out of four

states and retained power in Madhya Pradesh while defeating Congress in

Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The Congress party won Telangana.

Political continuity augurs well; confluence of best macro & micro



Equity markets were anxious in the run-up to the state elections in Dec’23 and

their potential bearing for the Loksabha elections in 2024. For the last twenty

years now, those state elections have historically been touted as semi-finals

before the grand finale in April/May Loksabha elections. The incumbent BJP’s

comfortable victory in three out of four states in Dec’23 soothed the market’s

nerves and resulted in a sharp rally, with 8% Nifty returns in Dec’23. Politically,

the BJP managed to retain MP (5

th

consecutive term) while snatching

Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from the Congress, bolstering its credentials as a

party that can perpetuate pro-incumbency trends in a state where it is in power

while benefitting from the anti-incumbency in opposition-ruled states.



Thus, these two pre-poll surveys further strengthen market sentiment as they

indicate political continuity with a single-party majority government under Mr.

Modi for a third consecutive term. The government’s confidence of retaining

power in the forthcoming elections is also reflected in the FY25 vote-on-account

Budget, when it refrained from giving any tax cuts/freebies (3% revenue

expenditure growth YoY budgeted for FY25BE) while aiming for better-than-

expected fiscal consolidation with a fiscal deficit target of 5.1% for FY25E vs.

5.8% for FY24 RE.



This also augurs well for policy momentum in India, which, at the moment, is

seeing confluence of good macros (7.3%/7% GDP growth in FY24/FY25E,

inflation moderating, current account deficit in control, 10-Y G-Sec yields in a

narrow range of 7-7.2% and a stable currency) and micros (solid corporate

earnings with Nifty expected to deliver 20% earnings growth in FY24). Valuations

at 19.2x FY25 EPS for Nifty are well within its long-period average even as

broader markets remain expensive, with the NSE Midcap 100 index trading at a

~40% premium to the benchmark Nifty50. In the midcap index, several mid-cap

stocks in the Industrials/Power/Defense/PSU sectors are trading at a significant

premium to their long-period-average valuations.

Preferred Sectors and Ideas:

Industrials, Consumer Discretionary (Jewelry, Hotels), PSU Banks, NBFC, Real

Estate, Healthcare

Preferred Ideas



Large-Caps:

ICICIB, SBI, L&T, HCL Tech, Titan, Coal India, M&M, Zomato, GAIL,

ITC and Cipla



Mid and Small-Caps:

Indian Hotels, HPCL, Godrej Properties, Dalmia Bharat,

Angel one, IIFL Finance, PNB Housing, Sobha, Lemon Tree Hotel, Restaurant

Brands Asia

13 February 2024

2

India Politics

Exhibit 1: India Today – Mood of the Nation poll projects

335/304 seats for NDA/BJP in 2024 Loksabha Polls

UPA

India Today

BJP led NDA

42

166

Others

Exhibit 2: Times Now Pre-Poll predicts 366 seats for NDA in

2024 Loksabha Polls

UPA

73

Times Now

NDA

104

Others

335

366

Source: India Today, MOFSL

Source: Times Now, MOFSL

Exhibit 3: India Today – MOTN poll: State-wise opinion poll

India Today-Mood of the Nation Poll

States/Number of seats

BJP led NDA

Opposition

Assam

12/14

2/14

Bihar

32/40

8/40

Delhi

7/7

Nil

Gujarat

26/26

Nil

Himachal Pradesh

4/4

Nil

Jharkhand

12/14

2/14

Karnataka

24/28

4/28

Madhya Pradesh

27/29

2/29

Maharashtra

22/48

26/48

Rajasthan

25/25

Nil

Uttar Pradesh

72/80

8/80

Uttarakhand

5/5

Nil

*

Exhibit 4: Times Now Pre-Poll: State-wise opinion poll

Times Now survey

States/Number of seats

BJP led NDA

Bihar

35/40

Chhattisgarh

11/11

Delhi

7/7

Gujarat

26/26

Haryana

9/10

Jharkhand

13/14

Madhya Pradesh

28/29

Maharashtra

39/48

Rajasthan

25/25

Uttar Pradesh

77/80

Uttarakhand

5/5

Opposition

5/40

Nil

Nil

Nil

1/10

1/14

1/29

9/48

Nil

3/80

Nil

Source: India Today survey, Times Now survey, MOFSL

Exhibit 5: BJP won full majority in 2014 and 2019

BJP

282

303

Exhibit 6: The Congress party’s seat share fell sharply

206

145

INC

138

116

44

52

2004

2009

2014

2019

2004

2009

2014

2019

13 February 2024

3

India Politics

Exhibit 7: NDA led 2014 election with 62% seats

2014

UPA

NDA

59

Others

UPA

140

Exhibit 8: NDA further strengthened its position in 2019

2019

NDA

52

Others

148

336

Source: Election Commission, MOFSL

351

Source: Election Commission, MOFSL

Exhibit 9: Market behavior into and post LS Elections, Nifty has gained only ~7% since recent assembly election results

General

Year

Election

10

th

11

th

12

th

13

th

14

th

15

th

16

th

17

th

18

th

Political party

1991 Congress

1996 BJP

1998 BJP

1999 BJP-led NDA

2004 Congress-led UPA

2009 Congress-led UPA

2014 BJP-led NDA

2019 BJP-led NDA

2024

To be announced

6 months

1 month

6 month

Election

Prime Minister

till result

before

after

season

date

results

results

performance

PV Narasimha Rao

4%

-1%

36%

12%

AB Vajpayee

14%

6%

-19%

19%

AB Vajpayee

-2%

12%

-23%

4%

AB Vajpayee

36%

0%

4%

33%

Manmohan Singh

9%

-9%

9%

-5%

Manmohan Singh

31%

9%

38%

61%

Narendra Modi

19%

8%

16%

24%

Narendra Modi

11%

1%

2%

11%

rd

To be announced

~7% gains since 3 Dec’23

***

Source: MOFSL, NSE, *Election season period is taken as 6-months prior and 1-month post result date

Nifty performance

1 month

3 month

after

after

results

results

8%

38%

4%

-5%

5%

-7%

-2%

16%

-12%

-7%

23%

25%

5%

8%

1%

-7%

13 February 2024

4

India Politics

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India Politics

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13 February 2024

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