February 2024
India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 73,158
Nifty 50 and Nifty 500: 3QFY24
performance
3QFY24 YoY growth(%)
Nifty50
NSE500
24.5
Nifty-50: 22,217
Nifty 500: 3QFY24 earnings review
BFSI and Auto in charge again; the Metals sector posts healthy earnings
17.3
14.4
9.9
6.2
4.1
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Nifty 500 earnings performance
3QFY24 Adj. PAT growth
(YoY, %)
NSE 500
Ex-BFSI
Ex-Metals and O&G
27.3
25.0
20.5
The Nifty 500 companies delivered strong performance and reported an
earnings growth of 25% YoY in 3QFY24.
The earnings growth was again fueled by the healthy earnings performance of
the BFSI and Auto sectors, which reported 22% and 59% YoY earnings growth,
respectively. O&G reported healthy 40% YoY earnings growth fueled by OMC's
soaring profitability due to strong marketing margins.
The Nifty 500 aggregate sales/EBITDA/adj. PAT grew 5%/15%/25% YoY
to
~INR32.5t/INR6.3t/INR3.4t in 3QFY24.
The Nifty 500 (ex-BFSI)
registered an aggregate earnings growth of 27% YoY (-
2% QoQ) in 3QFY24. However,
ex-global commodities,
aggregate earnings grew
21% YoY (+6% QoQ) during the quarter.
Sales/EBITDA/adj. PAT for Nifty 500 grew ~3%/24%/38% YoY in
9MFY24.
EBITDA margin expansion continues:
Nifty 500 (ex-BFSI) margin expanded
220bp YoY to 15.7% in 3QFY24;
however, it moderated 110bp sequentially after
hitting an eight-quarter high of 16.8% in 2QFY24. EBITDA margin, ex-
commodities (Metals and O&G), expanded ~140bp YoY and scaled a 12-quarter
high to 18.7% YoY in 3QFY24.
Heavyweights propel earnings; broader markets’ share improves
NSE 500
Ex-BFSI
Ex-Metals
and O&G
Heavyweights drive earnings:
The earnings performance of the Nifty 500
companies was propelled by just a few heavyweights. The top five companies,
i.e., IOC, HDFC Bank, TTMT, GAIL, and Adani Power contributed 33% to the
incremental YoY accretion in earnings during the quarter.
Of the 496 companies within the Nifty 500 that have declared their Dec’23
quarter results, 329 companies recorded earnings growth, while 167 posted an
earnings decline/loss in 3QFY24. Among the companies that declared profits,
251 posted an earnings growth of over 15% YoY for the quarter.
Earnings for Nifty 500/Nifty 50/Nifty 100/Nifty Midcap 100/Nifty Smallcap 100
jumped 25%/17%/25%/36%/27% YoY in 3QFY24.
Key sectoral highlights
Of the 18 sectors (incl. BFSI) within the Nifty 500,
13 sectors reported profit
growth,
while five posted a decline during the quarter.
Auto
reported a 59% YoY jump in earnings in 3QFY24. While most of the
companies delivered healthy earnings growth, heavyweights such as TTMT,
MSIL, and Bajaj Auto drove the earnings significantly. Healthy Auto volumes,
with a recovery in 2Ws, and strong margins drove sector profitability.
Financials:
BFSI clocked 22% YoY earnings growth in 3QFY24. Both Private and
PSU banks continued to lead with ~25% YoY earnings growth. The quarter
witnessed healthy business growth, controlled provisions, persistent NIM
Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Deven Mistry
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com)
|
Aanshul Agarawal
(aanshul.agarawal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.