8 August 2024
1QFY25 Results Update | Sector: Hotels
Lemon Tree Hotels
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
LEMONTRE IN
792
100 / 1.2
158 / 93
-13/-20/10
781
CMP: INR126
TP: INR170 (+34%)
Buy
Higher renovation and business development expenses
hurt margins
Operating performance below our estimates
Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTRE) reported strong revenue growth of 21% YoY
in 1QFY25, primarily led by healthy growth in ARR (up 9% YoY) and the
opening of Aurika Mumbai (669 rooms) in Oct’23.
However, EBITDA margins remained under pressure (down 410bp YoY),
primarily due to an increase in renovations and business development
expenses. The company is renovating its entire room inventory by FY26 end,
thereby improving its ARR. We believe that margins will improve after the
renovations are completed.
We largely maintain our FY25/FY26 EBITDA estimates and retain our
BUY
rating on the stock with our SoTP-based TP of INR170.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2024 2025E
Sales
10.7
13.4
EBITDA
5.2
6.4
PAT
1.49
1.93
EBITDA (%)
48.6
47.8
EPS (INR)
1.9
2.5
EBITDA Gr. (%)
25.7
29.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
12.4
14.8
Ratios
Net D/E
1.9
1.3
RoE (%)
16.3
18.1
RoCE (%)
10.2
12.1
Payout (%)
-
-
Valuations
P/E (x)
66.4
51.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
23.7
18.8
Div Yield (%)
-
-
FCF Yield (%)
1.3
5.7
2026E
15.6
8.0
3.03
51.0
3.9
57.1
18.7
0.7
23.1
16.5
-
32.5
14.6
-
7.0
Rising ARR and ramp-up of Aurika Mumbai boost sales
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Jun-24 Mar-24 Jun-23
22.8
22.9
23.6
15.2
15.4
10.4
27.7
27.2
25.6
34.3
34.6
40.5
Revenue grew 21% YoY to INR2.7b (in line), led by higher ARR of INR5,686
(up 9% YoY) and incremental contributions from Aurika Mumbai. Occupancy
declined 360bp YoY to 66.6%, due to the elections and extreme heatwaves.
RevPAR was up 3% YoY at INR3,787.
EBITDA grew 10% YoY to INR1.2b (est. INR1.3b). EBITDA margin declined
410bp YoY to 42.9% (est. 45%), led by an increase in other expenses as % of
sales by 370bp YoY to 23.2%. Margins declined on a YoY basis due to the
planned increase in renovation expenses, higher fixed costs of Aurika
Mumbai, investment in digital capabilities, the expansion of the business
development team and overall annual payroll increase. Adj. PAT declined
16% YoY to INR198m (est. INR244m).
In 1QFY25, Keys Hotels generated a revenue of INR205m (up 6% YoY), with
EBITDA of INR39m (down 11% YoY), aided by high renovation expenses. It
operated at 55.7% occupancy (down 150bp YoY), with ARR of INR3,542 (up
7% YoY).
As of 30th Jun’24, total operational inventory comprised 107 hotels with
10,125 rooms and the pipeline comprised 61 hotels with 4,036 rooms.
Guidance:
The company expects to clock revenue of INR12.5b in FY25 and
EBITDA of ~INR9b by FY25 or FY26. It targets RoCE of ~20%. After the
renovations, the company expects EBITDA of INR600m annually from ‘Keys’
portfolio with ARR of ~INR4,500.
Near-term outlook:
LEMONTRE is confident of achieving healthy RevPAR
growth in FY25/FY26, once renovated rooms become operational. It has also
invested in business development (team up 4x) and manpower (sales force
increased by 50% in last three months).
Aurika Mumbai Sky City
clocked an occupancy rate of ~45.9% in 1Q with
ARR of ~INR8,900. The company is expected to see a healthy pick-up from
MICE activities from 3Q onward. It expects the hotel to clock ~2-2.5x higher
revenue in 2H compared to 1HFY25.
1
Highlights from the management commentary
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sumant Kumar - Research Analyst
(Sumant.Kumar@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Meet Jain
(Meet.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) /
Omkar Shintre
(Omkar.Shintre@MotilalOswal.com)
14 November 2022
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Valuation and view
We expect the investments (opex) in renovations and the strengthening of its
business operations to bear fruit going ahead, with improved OR and ARR.
Further, the operational momentum will remain strong with the ramp-up of
Aurika Mumbai and a healthy pipeline of hotel additions under management
contracts (~4,000 rooms in pipeline).
We expect LEMONTRE to deliver a CAGR of 21%/24%/43% in revenue/EBITDA/
Adj. PAT over FY24-26 and RoCE to improve to 16.5% by FY26 from ~10% in
FY24.
We largely maintain our FY25/FY26 EBITDA estimates and retain our BUY rating
on the stock with our SoTP-based TP of INR170.
(INRm)
FY25E
Var
1Q
(%)
2,776
-3
24.9
1,526
1,250
-8
45.0
340
520
25
415
415
99
23.9
72
244
244
-19
4.0
8.8
Consolidated quarterly performance
Y/E March
Gross Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
1Q
2,223
15.7
1,178
1,045
47.0
228
481
24
359
359
87
24.2
38
235
235
34.5
10.6
FY24
2Q
3Q
2,272 2,887
15.5
23.6
1,253 1,490
1,019 1,397
44.8
48.4
226
333
473
534
29
22
348
552
348
552
86
118
24.8
21.3
35
80
226
354
226
354
35.1
-11.4
10.0
12.3
4Q
3,273
29.5
1,558
1,715
52.4
334
528
39
892
892
50
5.6
172
670
670
52.4
20.5
1Q
2,680
20.6
1,530
1,151
42.9
346
518
4
291
291
91
31.2
2
198
198
-15.6
7.4
FY25E
2QE
3QE
2,988 3,919
31.5
35.8
1,632 1,948
1,357 1,971
45.4
50.3
345
350
505
480
35
50
542 1,191
542 1,191
129
285
23.9
23.9
93
112
319
795
319
795
40.9 124.5
10.7
20.3
FY24
4QE
3,770
15.2
1,864
1,906
50.6
355
460
41
1,133
1,133
270
23.8
248
615
615
-8.1
16.3
10,655
21.8
5,479
5,176
48.6
1,121
2,016
113
2,151
2,151
341
15.9
325
1,485
1,485
25.7
13.9
FY25E
13,358
25.4
6,974
6,385
47.8
1,396
1,963
130
3,156
3,156
775
24.5
454
1,928
1,928
29.8
14.4
Key performance indicators
Y/E March
1Q
Occupancy (%)
ARR (INR)
Change (%)
RevPAR (INR)
Change (%)
Cost Break-up
F&B Cost (% of sales)
Staff Cost (% of sales)
Power and fuel (% of sales)
Other Cost (% of sales)
Gross Margins (%)
EBITDA Margins (%)
EBIT Margins (%)
70.2
5,237
8.6
3,678
17.2
5.6
19.2
8.7
19.6
94.4
47.0
36.8
FY24
2Q
71.7
5,268
7.1
3,775
16.0
5.8
20.4
8.4
20.6
94.2
44.8
34.9
3Q
65.9
6,333
10.4
4,173
7.6
5.8
17.0
6.9
22.0
94.2
48.4
36.9
4Q
72.0
6,605
13.4
4,756
10.9
6.3
15.2
6.0
20.1
93.7
52.4
42.2
1Q
66.6
5,686
8.6
3,787
3.0
6.1
18.9
8.7
23.3
93.9
42.9
30.0
FY25E
2QE
70.1
5,984
13.6
4,195
11.1
6.0
18.6
9.0
21.0
94.0
45.4
33.8
3QE
75.5
7,206
13.8
5,442
30.4
6.0
14.9
7.8
21.0
94.0
50.3
41.4
4QE
75.2
6,978
5.6
5,244
10.3
5.8
15.8
8.8
19.0
94.2
50.6
41.1
FY24
72.0
6,260
10.1
4,506
FY25E
73.2
6,996
11.7
5,122
5.9
17.6
7.3
20.6
94.1
48.6
38.1
6.0
16.8
8.5
20.9
94.0
47.8
37.3
8 August 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Key Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Consolidated revenue trend
Revenue (INRm)
356
44
104
110
4
26
103
63
111
16
35
15
24
Growth YoY (%)
Exhibit 2: Consolidated EBITDA trend
EBITDA (INRm)
48
31
Margin (%)
55
47
45
48
52
43
48
54
30
21
0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Consolidated adjusted PAT trend
Adj PAT (INRm)
670
400 440
174 168
-208 -19 -132
-401
235 226
354
198
Exhibit 4: ARR trend
ARR (INR)
104
54
(10)
14
54
62
Growth YoY (%)
47
42
9
7
10
13
9
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Occupancy trend
Occupancy (%)
65.1 66.2 67.6
46.1
73.6 70.2 71.7
65.9
72.0
66.6
Exhibit 6: RevPAR trend
RevPAR (INR)
348
80 109
-8
111
27
127
17
16
8
11
3
Growth YoY (%)
51 57.6
29.6
73
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
8 August 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
th
Exhibit 7: Portfolio breakup as of 30 Jun’24 – operational
Operational portfolio
Aurika
Lemon Tree Premier
Lemon Tree Hotels
Red Fox Hotels
Keys Prima
Keys Select
Keys Lite
Total
Owned
Hotels
2
7
13
5
0
7
0
34
Rooms
808
1,442
1,241
759
0
936
0
5,186
Hotels
0
2
4
1
0
0
0
7
Leased
Rooms
0
161
321
91
0
0
0
573
Managed/ Franchised
Hotels
1
11
38
5
1
5
5
66
Rooms
55
1,106
2,192
440
42
335
196
4,366
Hotels
3
20
55
11
1
12
5
107
Total
Rooms
863
2,709
3,754
1,290
42
1,271
196
10,125
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: Portfolio breakup as of 30 Jun’24 – pipeline
In pipeline
Aurika
Lemon Tree Premier
Lemon Tree Hotels
Red Fox Hotels
Keys Prima
Keys Select
Keys Lite
Total
Owned
Hotels
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Rooms
69
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
Hotels
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Leased
Rooms
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Managed/Franchised
Hotels
2
5
39
1
1
5
7
60
Rooms
242
377
2,555
50
55
356
332
3,967
Hotels
3
5
39
1
1
5
7
61
Total
Rooms
311
377
2,555
50
55
356
332
4,036
th
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: Brand-wise operating performance trend
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
78.0
6,380
0.32
56.0
73.0
5,163
0.22
49.0
68.0
4,044
0.14
50.0
46.0
9,989
0.25
44.0
2QFY24
80.0
6,334
0.32
56.0
74.0
5,178
0.21
46.0
69.0
4,059
0.14
46.0
49.0
11,487
0.28
44.0
3QFY24
77.0
7,437
0.35
55.0
71.0
5,935
0.25
50.0
73.0
4,746
0.19
54.0
42.0
10,743
0.29
4QFY24
81.0
7,565
0.42
60.0
74.0
6,036
0.25
50.0
76.0
4,796
0.21
58.0
66.0
10,553
0.56
1QFY25
79.0
6,558
0.32
53.0
72.0
5,299
0.20
43.0
64.0
4,214
0.13
46.0
46.0
9,061
0.27
Lemon Tree Premier
Occupancy (%)
71.0
76.0
75.0
81.0
ARR (INR)
5,896
5,887
6,863
7,143
Hotel level EBITDAR/room (INR m)
0.27
0.28
0.35
0.20
Hotel level EBITDAR Margin (%)
56.0
54.0
60.0
61.0
Lemon Tree Hotels
Occupancy (%)
68.0
66.0
68.0
74.0
ARR (INR)
4,751
4,823
5,400
5,501
Hotel level EBITDAR/room (INR m)
0.19
0.18
0.25
0.24
Hotel level EBITDAR Margin (%)
49.0
47.0
57.0
51.0
Red Fox Hotels
Occupancy (%)
64.0
68.0
73.0
78.0
ARR (INR)
3,712
3,697
4,315
4,310
Hotel level EBITDAR/room (INR m)
0.11
0.13
0.20
0.20
Hotel level EBITDAR Margin (%)
47.0
49.0
60.0
59.0
Aurika
Occupancy (%)
37.0
39.0
53.0
69.0
ARR (INR)
11,207
11,896
17,102
16,152
Hotel level EBITDAR/room (INR m)
0.26
0.29
0.79
1.03
Hotel level EBITDAR Margin (%)
48.0
49.0
69.0
72.0
EBITDAR – Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and rent
55.0
64.0
49.0
Source: Company, MOFSL
8 August 2024
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Exhibit 10: Consolidated profit and loss break-up in 1QFY25
Total without Keys Hotels
INR m
Inventory
ARR
Occupancy
1Q
FY25
4Q
FY24
1Q
QoQ YoY
1Q
FY24 Change change FY25
0%
-14%
-9%
-19%
-1%
-34%
16%
9%
6%
21%
31%
10%
936
4Q
FY24
936
Key Hotels
Total
1Q
QoQ
YoY
1Q
4Q
1Q QoQ YoY
FY24 Change change FY25 FY24 FY24 Change change
936
0%
-3%
-2%
-5%
2%
-25%
0%
7%
4%
5%
20%
5,759 5,759 5,090
0%
13%
9%
4%
20%
30%
8%
5,686 6,605 5,207 -14%
3,788 4,754 3657 -20%
2,680 3,273 2242 -18%
1530 1545 1178
-1%
4,823 4,823 4,154
6,023 7,030 5,543
4563
2047
1040
3,542 3,637 3,305
1,975 2,018 1891
205
215
195
166
39
163
52
138
57
68.7% 75.2% 73.2% -650bp -450 bp 55.7% 55.5% 57.2% 20 bp -150bp 66.6% 72.0% 70.2% -540bp -360bp
RevPAR
4,832 5,285
Revenue from operations 2,475 3,058
Total expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
1363
1382
1,112 1,676 1,007
-32% 1,150 1,728 1,064 -33%
44.9% 54.8% 49.2% -988 bp -426 bp 19.0% 24.2% 29.2% -516 bp -1021 bp 42.9% 52.8% 47.5%-989 bp -455 bp
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 11: Operational performance by region
Parameters
by region (rooms)
Delhi (636)
Gurugram (529)
Hyderabad (663)
Bengaluru (874)
Mumbai (972)
Pune (426)
Rest of India (1,659)
Occupancy (%)
1QFY25
1QFY24
75
74
76
68
73
84
65
71
59
86
76
72
61
60
Change
YoY* (bps)
70
860
-1100
-540
-2740
460
20
ARR
1QFY25
5,971
5,226
6,038
4,890
8,405
5,252
4,614
1QFY24
5,744
5,078
5,627
4,740
7,721
4,920
4,488
Change
YoY* (%)
4
3
7
3
9
7
3
th
Note: Aurika Mumbai Sky City (669 rooms) was operational from 5 Oct’2023
Source: Company, MOFSL
8 August 2024
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Highlights from the management commentary
Operational highlights:
During the quarter, the company opened four hotels, adding ~331 rooms to its
inventory.
LEMONTRE signed three new management & franchise contracts in 1QFY25,
thereby adding 187 new rooms to its pipeline.
As of 31st Dec’23, total operational inventory comprised 107 hotels with 10,125
rooms and the pipeline comprised 61 hotels with 4,036 rooms.
ARR for the group, excluding Aurika Mumbai, stood at INR5,400 in 1Q.
Margins declined on a YoY basis due to the planned increase in renovation
expenses, investment in digital capabilities, the expansion of the business
development team and overall annual payroll increase.
ARR change across market segments: Corporate – up 6% YoY; Commercial – up
5% (ex Aurika); Travel Trade – up 11% YoY; OTA – flat YoY
Guidance and Outlook
The company expects to clock revenue of ~INR12.5b in FY25.
It expects to record EBITDA of ~INR9b by next year or year after that, with RoCE
target of ~20%.
The company is confident of achieving healthy RevPAR growth in FY25/FY26
once renovated rooms become operational.
After renovations, the company is looking at EBITDA of INR600m annually from
‘Keys’ portfolio, with ARR of ~INR4,500.
Three key transformative changes:
Renovation:
The company is taking the pain now in renovating major rooms and
will get it done by end of FY26 in anticipation of the strong demand tailwind from
FY27 onward.
LemonTree has stated the example of China and Indonesia during 2006-09, how
they renovated their hotels and got benefits from strong industry growth of 20-
25% over next few years. Currently India is at that stage where these two
countries were in 2006-09.
Digital transformation:
The company has created a dynamic algorithm, which will
be available in all the new rooms.
It has also installed a new sales system, led by digital capability. It has reimagined
its loyalty program.
The company is focusing on capturing ~66% of the demand from the retail
segment in the next two years.
Business development:
Increased the business development team by 4x and
overall manpower (sales force increased by 50% in last three months).
Aurika Mumbai Sky City
The hotel clocked an occupancy rate of ~45.9% in 1Q, with ARR of ~INR8,900.
It started reducing crew rooms (stood at 115 in Q1 vs. 200 in Q4). It expects this
to further reduce to 100 in 2Q.
The company decided to let go crew business in anticipation of normalization in
3Q onward (healthy demand coming from other segments).
8 August 2024
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
The company is witnessing early signs of good pick-up in retail and corporates. It
is expecting retails and corporates to fill 200 rooms each from 3Q onward.
Aurika is expected to post healthy numbers from 4Q onward.
The company is expected to see healthy pick-up from MICE activities from 3Q
onward.
It expects 2H to clock ~2-2.5x revenue as compared to 1H in FY25.
Aurika can clock ~70% EBITDA margins if occupancy reaches ~70% by 4QFY25.
Region-wise performance
In 1QFY25, occupancy for Hyderabad/Bengaluru/Mumbai declined
1100bp/540bp/2700bp YoY to 73%/65%/59%. Delhi/Gurugram/Pune witnessed a
70bp/860bp/460bp YoY increase in occupancy to 75%/76%/76%.
ARR for Delhi/Gurugram/Hyderabad/Bengaluru/Mumbai/Pune increased
4%/3%/7%/3%/9%/7% YoY.
The company witnessed a decline in occupancy in Hyderabad as ~20% of
inventory in Hi-Tech city is shut.
Within Bangalore, the company has shut down large inventory in keys portfolio
(100-room hotel in Whitefield). Out of this, 40 rooms are opened now and the
hotel is doing well.
Renovation and capex
With some rooms coming back after renovation in 2Q, the company is already
witnessing ~10% higher ARR at the group level and 7% on SSG basis.
Around 650-700 rooms were shut in 1Q for renovations to prepare for the peak
winter season. They included room from hotels with high ARR and demand.
The company spends less than 2% of revenue for maintenance renovations
every year. This is different from the renovation that the company is doing for
repricing its hotels (where renovation cost is ~6% of total revenue).
Of the total ~5,900 owned rooms, ~1,500 rooms do not need renovations, while
the remaining ~4400 rooms will be renovated. Out of this, ~900 rooms are
under Keys portfolio, which will be completed by the end of FY26.
Out of the remaining ~3,500 rooms, ~250-300 rooms were renovated last year,
~3,200 rooms will be renovated mostly by end of FY26; at any time, ~600-700
rooms will be shut for renovations.
This also includes shutting down amenities and restaurant and banquets if
required.
From FY27, entire room inventory will be operational and repriced
It takes 2.5 months to renovate a room. Major renovation will happen in H1 only
to benefit the peak H2 season.
Post this, renovation expenses will drop to ~1.5-1.6% of revenue
Within management Contract, ~50% of the properties requires renovation.
Around 80% of these hotels have accepted and will undergo renovations soon.
For the balance the company has given them time to agree for renovation and if
failed, the company can cancel the contract.
The company expects, 100% of their contracts to go for renovation
8 August 2024
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Industry scenario
The number of customers for branded hotels in India is roughly 6m, whose annual
household income is over INR2.5m.
The management expects this number to touch 30m in the next five to seven
years.
The best proxy to understand this growth will be the increase in air traffic, airports
and runways, airline ordering (up 3x), four-lane highways, and SUV sales.
The hotel industry is not yet at the top of the cycle. It will take another two years
for the cycle to peak.
Other key highlights
The company expects zero debt over the next four years.
If Fleur is taken public, then repayments will be much earlier as major debt is
under Fleur.
The company witnessed its highest EBITDA flow-through from bookings on LT.com
and other FITs.
The corporates segment has high flow-through of ~85%.
The flow-through for airlines is less by 10pp due to other expenses, such as
laundry, travel, etc.
EBITDA flow-through for travel trade/OTA is also less due to commission payout.
8 August 2024
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Valuation and view
We expect the investments (opex) in renovation and the strengthening of its
business operations to bear fruit going ahead, with improved OR and ARR.
Further, the operational momentum is expected to remain strong, with the
ramp-up of Aurika Mumbai and a healthy pipeline of hotel additions under
management contracts (~4,000 rooms in pipeline).
We expect LEMONTRE to deliver a CAGR of 21%/24%/43% in revenue/EBITDA/
Adj. PAT over FY24-26 and RoCE to improve to 16.5% by FY26 from ~10% in
FY24.
We largely maintain our FY25/FY26 EBITDA estimates and retain our BUY rating
on the stock with our SoTP-based TP of INR170.
FY26
INRm
1,936
x
20
INRm
39,015
INRm
7,092
INRm
31,923
INRm
1,028
x
45
INRm
46,255
INRm
5,005
INRm
2,948
x
20
INRm
59,409
INRm
3,391
INRm
56,018
INRm
1,34,196
Mn
792
INR
170
Source: MOFSL
New
FY26E
15,856
8,133
3,159
FY25E
13,358
6,385
1,928
FY26E
15,615
7,969
3,028
FY25E
-3%
-4%
-9%
Change (%)
FY26E
-2%
-2%
-4%
Source: MOFSL
Exhibit 12: Valuation methodology
Particulars
Standalone EBITDA
EV/EBIDTA Multiple
EV
Less: Standalone Net Debt
Target Value
Carnations EBITDA (Management Contract)
EV/EBIDTA Multiple
EV
Fluer's EBITDA
LemonTree's Share of Fluer EBITDA (58.91%)
EV/EBIDTA Multiple
EV
Less: LemonTree's Share of Fluer Net Debt
Target Value
Total Target Value
No. of shares
Target Price
Exhibit 13: Revisions to our estimates
Earnings Change
(INR m)
Revenue
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Old
FY25E
13,744
6,678
2,121
8 August 2024
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Financials and valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
F&B Consumed
Employees Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Total Tax
Tax Rate (%)
MI/ share of profit from associates
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY18
4,843
17.5
436
1,096
1,949
3,481
71.9
1,362
28.1
526
836
784
126
178
0
178
38
21.3
-2
142
142
NA
2.9
FY19
5,495
13.5
498
1,205
2,104
3,807
69.3
1,688
30.7
541
1,146
847
145
445
0
445
-111
-25.0
27
529
529
271.9
9.6
FY20
6,694
21.8
570
1,553
2,137
4,260
63.6
2,434
36.4
922
1,512
1,565
58
5
0
5
109
2220.8
-9
-95
-95
-118.0
-1.4
FY21
2,517
-62.4
178
704
1,022
1,905
75.7
613
24.3
1,076
-463
1,817
133
-2,147
0
-2,147
-322
15.0
-555
-1,271
-1,271
1,232.4
-50.5
FY22
4,022
59.8
279
973
1,432
2,683
66.7
1,339
33.3
1,043
296
1,740
140
-1,304
153
-1,456
-72
5.0
-510
-874
-760
-40.2
-18.9
FY23
8,750
117.5
499
1,497
2,230
4,226
48.3
4,524
51.7
966
3,557
1,772
36
1,822
-48
1,774
377
21.3
251
1,146
1,182
-255.5
13.5
FY24
10,655
21.8
628
1,878
2,973
5,479
51.4
5,176
48.6
1,121
4,054
2,016
113
2,151
0
2,151
341
15.9
325
1,485
1,485
25.7
13.9
FY25E
13,358
25.4
799
2,244
3,931
6,974
52.2
6,385
47.8
1,396
4,989
1,963
130
3,156
0
3,156
775
24.5
454
1,928
1,928
29.8
14.4
(INRm)
FY26E
15,615
16.9
906
2,483
4,258
7,646
49.0
7,969
51.0
1,401
6,567
1,578
156
5,146
0
5,146
1,228
23.9
890
3,028
3,028
57.1
19.4
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Lease Liability
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Current Investment
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
FY18
7,864
284
8,148
4,286
10,110
0
43
22,588
16,044
1,513
14,531
68
5,591
146
120
4,247
54
525
210
3,458
1,994
811
1,140
43
2,253
22,588
FY19
7,893
857
8,750
4,322
12,042
0
0
25,114
18,068
2,054
16,014
0
6,639
373
287
4,693
60
844
314
3,475
2,605
958
1,592
55
2,088
25,114
FY20
7,903
1,986
9,889
5,559
15,775
4,619
0
35,841
35,073
2,977
32,097
951
1,896
164
44
2,521
82
503
408
1,528
1,786
842
877
67
734
35,841
FY21
7,904
1,272
9,176
6,174
16,850
4,671
0
36,870
35,016
4,052
30,964
951
2,418
79
91
3,737
72
308
1,411
1,945
1,278
788
412
78
2,459
36,870
FY22
7,908
404
8,312
5,676
16,986
4,247
0
35,223
34,637
5,096
29,542
951
2,968
114
59
2,776
81
291
543
1,861
1,128
585
319
224
1,648
35,223
FY23
7,916
621
8,537
5,597
17,457
4,253
0
35,844
34,666
6,062
28,605
951
4,822
73
10
2,873
105
560
275
1,933
1,479
668
730
81
1,394
35,844
FY24
7,918
1,750
9,669
5,795
18,891
4,423
0
38,779
42,627
7,183
35,444
951
254
151
81
3,531
138
715
537
2,140
1,552
859
601
92
1,979
38,779
FY25E
7,918
3,678
11,597
6,253
16,391
4,423
0
38,664
42,950
8,579
34,372
951
331
151
0
5,037
172
878
1,315
2,672
2,177
1,108
935
134
2,860
38,664
FY26E
7,918
6,706
14,624
7,146
11,891
4,423
0
38,084
43,335
9,980
33,355
951
346
151
0
5,746
189
1,027
1,408
3,123
2,464
1,215
1,093
156
3,282
38,084
8 August 2024
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Room (INRm)
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Net Debt/Equity
FY18
0.2
0.9
10.4
0.0
0.0
693.1
147.5
12.1
23.3
82.7
34.4
0.0
-2.4
1.8
3.8
3.8
0.3
0.2
4
40
61
2.1
1.1
1.2
FY18
178
526
658
-38
450
1,775
-629
1,145
-3,012
-1,867
-82
495
-2,600
52
2,124
-784
97
1,489
35
176
211
FY19
0.7
1.4
11.2
0.0
0.0
186.4
92.1
11.3
20.8
67.7
32.0
0.0
-1.5
6.3
4.4
5.0
0.3
0.2
4
56
64
1.8
1.4
1.3
FY19
445
541
702
111
25
1,824
43
1,867
-3,004
-1,138
-228
337
-2,895
29
1,931
-847
18
1,131
103
211
314
FY20
-0.1
1.1
12.7
0.0
0.0
-1,033.3
119.1
10.0
17.8
49.1
28.1
0.0
-9.5
-1.0
4.5
4.4
0.2
0.2
4
27
46
1.4
1.0
1.5
FY20
5
922
1,507
-109
-754
1,572
-62
1,510
-8,969
-7,459
210
2,677
-6,082
10
3,733
-1,565
2,488
4,667
94
314
408
FY21
-1.6
-0.2
11.7
0.0
0.0
-77.6
-505.0
10.7
47.7
196.0
28.2
0.0
-1.5
-13.3
-0.9
-1.0
0.1
0.1
10
45
114
2.9
-0.3
1.7
FY21
-2,147
1,076
1,685
322
-1,009
-74
-635
-709
-465
-1,174
85
-276
-656
1,750
1,075
-1,817
1,361
2,368
1,003
408
1,411
FY22
-1.0
0.4
10.6
0.0
0.0
-129.7
347.6
11.9
30.0
90.1
28.3
0.0
0.9
-8.7
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.1
7
26
53
2.5
0.2
2.0
FY22
-1,446
1,043
1,786
-17
27
1,394
-41
1,353
-668
685
132
-56
-591
8
134
-1,400
-372
-1,630
-869
1,411
543
FY23
1.5
2.7
10.9
0.0
0.0
83.4
45.9
11.5
13.9
26.8
25.2
0.0
2.9
14.0
9.4
8.6
0.3
0.2
4
23
28
1.9
2.0
2.0
FY23
1,782
966
1,773
-207
-403
3,912
-63
3,849
-1,618
2,231
8
-1,222
-2,832
17
471
-1,432
-379
-1,323
-306
543
275
FY24
1.9
3.3
12.4
0.0
0.0
66.4
37.8
10.2
11.5
23.7
25.4
0.0
1.6
16.3
10.2
10.0
0.2
0.3
5
24
29
2.3
2.0
1.9
FY24
2,151
1,121
1,903
-341
-523
4,312
339
4,651
-3,393
1,258
-78
-495
-3,965
2
1,434
-2,016
157
-423
263
275
537
FY25E
2.5
4.3
14.8
0.0
0.0
51.1
29.7
8.5
9.0
18.8
24.9
0.0
7.1
18.1
12.1
10.1
0.3
0.3
5
24
30
2.3
2.5
1.3
FY25E
3,156
1,396
1,833
-775
-103
5,507
461
5,968
-400
5,568
0
130
-270
0
-2,500
-1,963
-458
-4,920
778
537
1,315
FY26E
3.9
5.7
18.7
0.0
0.0
32.5
22.2
6.7
7.4
14.6
24.1
0.0
8.8
23.1
16.5
13.7
0.4
0.4
4
24
28
2.3
4.2
0.7
Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
(INRm)
FY26E
5,146
1,401
1,422
-1,228
-329
6,412
896
7,307
-400
6,907
0
156
-244
0
-4,500
-1,578
-893
-6,971
93
1,315
1,408
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
8 August 2024
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
NOTES
8 August 2024
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in
the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National
Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for
its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of
Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.
Details of
associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or
derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial
instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and
other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are
completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL
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Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical
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have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary
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This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
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professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian
Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the
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under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL, including the products and
services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act
and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any
investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption
from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities
International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer,
MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research
analyst account.
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In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“MOCMSPL”) (UEN 201129401Z), which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of MOCMSPL. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by MOCMSPL
write to grievances@motilaloswal.com.
Nainesh Rajani
Email: nainesh.rajani@motilaloswal.com
Contact: (+65) 8328 0276
.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public
appearance.
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an
inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lemon Tree Hotels
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be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act
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The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts
which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
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of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
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