Sector Update | 30 September 2024
@
Automobiles
Demand trends in Sep’24 remained weak across segments despite festivals such
as the Ganesh festival and Onam. The demand weakness was further
accentuated by the inauspicious Shraddh period in September. As a result, retail
sales are likely to decline on a YoY basis across categories. The 2W retails are
expected to dip 3-5% YoY in Sep’24. Further, 2W dealers have seen a flat to
marginal decline YoY in retail sales in the 10-day Ganesh festival in Maharashtra.
However, in anticipation of a good month-long festival season starting with the
Navratras, dealers have seen an inventory buildup by OEMs. PV retails continue
to remain weak and are likely to decline 8-10% YoY. CV retails are projected to
decline 10-12% YoY due to weak underlying demand, though fleet utilization has
remained steady. Tractor retails are also expected to drop 10-12% YoY. In
Sep’24, dispatches are anticipated to grow YoY for 2Ws (+10%), tractors (+1%),
3Ws (+3%), and PVs (+4%), while dispatches are likely to decrease for CVs (-5%).
2Ws:
Retail sales are expected to decline 3-5% YoY in Sep’24 primarily due to the
inauspicious Shraddh period falling entirely in this month (vs. being split
between Sep and Oct last year). Inquiries and bookings currently remain slow.
To counter this, OEMs like HMCL have come up with a unique offer: whoever
books a HMCL 2W with a token amount of INR1,100 between 18
th
Sep and 2
nd
Oct’24 (Shraddh period), would get a discount of INR1,000 during the delivery of
the new vehicle in the Navratras. Despite this offer, bookings currently remain
weak. In the 10-day Ganesh festival in Maharashtra, 2W dealers (that we
interacted with) have seen a flat to marginal decline YoY across major regions,
barring a few. However, retails on the day of Vishwakarma Pooja saw a strong
double-digit growth in Bihar. However, demand for the entry-level 100cc
motorcycle segment is not showing any major improvement. For HMCL, dealers
have started receiving adequate supply of its Xtreme 125R. Bookings and
inquiries for BJAUT’s Freedom 125cc motorcycle are largely stable, with some
decline witnessed in a few regions where the motorcycle was initially launched.
The on-road price of Freedom 125cc base variant with drum brakes is around
INR109.2k (vs. INR90k/ INR91k for Splendor Plus/Passion Plus). For TVS, the
newer version of Jupiter 110cc is well received by customers as it offers a 10%
higher mileage and much better features for a marginal increase in pricing vis-à-
vis the outgoing model. There has been a price hike of INR500-700 in TVSL’s
Raider and Apache. There are no discounts offered by OEMs to customers in
Sep’24. In anticipation of a good festival season starting next month, inventory
levels have risen with HMCL at 75-80 days, TVSL/HMSI at 50-55 days, BJAUT at
60 days, and RE at 30 days. We expect dispatches for BJAUT/HMCL/TVSL to grow
~14%/11%/8% YoY, while it is anticipated to decline ~2% YoY for RE.
PVs:
Retails are expected to decline 8-10% YoY. Conversion to bookings from
inquiries is taking longer than expected across regions. As highlighted in our last
channel check note, discounts have moderated by 5-10% MoM in Sep’24 for
MSIL depending upon variants. TTMT announced price cuts across its range of
vehicles except Punch. Price reductions have been in the range of INR10-80k /
Demand yet to pick up; dealers optimistic for festive revival
Onset of festivities fails to spark a resurgence in demand as yet
“We expect to see some
green shoots with festivals
coming from October
onwards. The market is
not bad. Monsoon is very
good this year, so
harvesting is going to be
good too. Money will
come in for circulation.”
Mr. Partho Banerjee
Senior Executive Officer,
Marketing and Sales,
MSIL
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Aniket Mhatre- Research analyst
(Aniket.Mhatre@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst - Amber Shukla
(Amber.Shukla@MotilalOswal.com) |
Aniket Desai -
(Aniket.Desai@MotilalOswal.com)