Sector Update | 30 September 2024
@
Automobiles
Demand trends in Sep’24 remained weak across segments despite festivals such
as the Ganesh festival and Onam. The demand weakness was further
accentuated by the inauspicious Shraddh period in September. As a result, retail
sales are likely to decline on a YoY basis across categories. The 2W retails are
expected to dip 3-5% YoY in Sep’24. Further, 2W dealers have seen a flat to
marginal decline YoY in retail sales in the 10-day Ganesh festival in Maharashtra.
However, in anticipation of a good month-long festival season starting with the
Navratras, dealers have seen an inventory buildup by OEMs. PV retails continue
to remain weak and are likely to decline 8-10% YoY. CV retails are projected to
decline 10-12% YoY due to weak underlying demand, though fleet utilization has
remained steady. Tractor retails are also expected to drop 10-12% YoY. In
Sep’24, dispatches are anticipated to grow YoY for 2Ws (+10%), tractors (+1%),
3Ws (+3%), and PVs (+4%), while dispatches are likely to decrease for CVs (-5%).
2Ws:
Retail sales are expected to decline 3-5% YoY in Sep’24 primarily due to the
inauspicious Shraddh period falling entirely in this month (vs. being split
between Sep and Oct last year). Inquiries and bookings currently remain slow.
To counter this, OEMs like HMCL have come up with a unique offer: whoever
books a HMCL 2W with a token amount of INR1,100 between 18
th
Sep and 2
nd
Oct’24 (Shraddh period), would get a discount of INR1,000 during the delivery of
the new vehicle in the Navratras. Despite this offer, bookings currently remain
weak. In the 10-day Ganesh festival in Maharashtra, 2W dealers (that we
interacted with) have seen a flat to marginal decline YoY across major regions,
barring a few. However, retails on the day of Vishwakarma Pooja saw a strong
double-digit growth in Bihar. However, demand for the entry-level 100cc
motorcycle segment is not showing any major improvement. For HMCL, dealers
have started receiving adequate supply of its Xtreme 125R. Bookings and
inquiries for BJAUT’s Freedom 125cc motorcycle are largely stable, with some
decline witnessed in a few regions where the motorcycle was initially launched.
The on-road price of Freedom 125cc base variant with drum brakes is around
INR109.2k (vs. INR90k/ INR91k for Splendor Plus/Passion Plus). For TVS, the
newer version of Jupiter 110cc is well received by customers as it offers a 10%
higher mileage and much better features for a marginal increase in pricing vis-à-
vis the outgoing model. There has been a price hike of INR500-700 in TVSL’s
Raider and Apache. There are no discounts offered by OEMs to customers in
Sep’24. In anticipation of a good festival season starting next month, inventory
levels have risen with HMCL at 75-80 days, TVSL/HMSI at 50-55 days, BJAUT at
60 days, and RE at 30 days. We expect dispatches for BJAUT/HMCL/TVSL to grow
~14%/11%/8% YoY, while it is anticipated to decline ~2% YoY for RE.
PVs:
Retails are expected to decline 8-10% YoY. Conversion to bookings from
inquiries is taking longer than expected across regions. As highlighted in our last
channel check note, discounts have moderated by 5-10% MoM in Sep’24 for
MSIL depending upon variants. TTMT announced price cuts across its range of
vehicles except Punch. Price reductions have been in the range of INR10-80k /
Demand yet to pick up; dealers optimistic for festive revival
Onset of festivities fails to spark a resurgence in demand as yet
“We expect to see some
green shoots with festivals
coming from October
onwards. The market is
not bad. Monsoon is very
good this year, so
harvesting is going to be
good too. Money will
come in for circulation.”
Mr. Partho Banerjee
Senior Executive Officer,
Marketing and Sales,
MSIL
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Aniket Mhatre- Research analyst
(Aniket.Mhatre@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst - Amber Shukla
(Amber.Shukla@MotilalOswal.com) |
Aniket Desai -
(Aniket.Desai@MotilalOswal.com)
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
INR15-30k/INR15-60k/ INR50k-180k/INR50-160k for Nexon/Tigor/Tiago/Safari/
Harrier. Despite these reductions, there are additional discounts of INR15-25k
on the models, including Punch. Test drive cars for TTMT’s ICE variant of Curvv
have not yet reached the dealerships, leading to postponement of purchases by
customers. MSIL is seeing an improvement in its Grand Vitara strong hybrid
retails in UP mainly due to a reduction in road tax announcements by the
government. M&M’s Thar Roxx test drives have commenced, with bookings
open from 3
rd
Oct’24. Strong initial response to Thar Roxx has led to a discount
of INR150k on the 3-door Thar. Inventory levels for MSIL stand at around 55-60
days, TTMT at 60 days, while the same for MM stand at 40-45 days. We expect
dispatches for MSIL (including LCVs)/ M&M/TTMT to grow 3% /3.5%/7% YoY.
CVs:
Both MHCV and LCV retails are estimated to decline 10-12% YoY due to the
seasonal effects of the monsoon. We are not seeing any major improvement in
tendering processes by the government leading to postponement of purchases by
fleet operators, especially in tippers. Fleet utilization levels remain steady at 65-
70%. This was driven by better off-take in consumer-based sectors such as agri,
auto, and FMCG. Dispatches for AL/TTMT are likely to decline 5.0%/13.5% YoY.
Tractors:
Retails are likely to dip 15-20% YoY, as demand sentiments have not
turned positive. In areas of UP where tractors are used for commercial purposes,
retails are likely to decline 25-30% YoY. Retails during the Ganesh festival in
Maharashtra have largely remained flat YoY. Rainfall has been satisfactory across
regions. While regions like eastern UP were having deficit rainfall, it is now being
compensated by extremely heavy rains in the last 4-5 days. Dealers believe that
the positive effect of normal rainfall is expected to be seen in the next 2-3
months. There are discounts of INR10-15k/tractor for ESC, while it is INR4-5k for
M&M (in the form of scratch card offers). The Tiger range of tractors launched
by Sonalika is well accepted in the markets. Current inventory levels are around
eight weeks, which we consider normal as we approach the festive season. We
expect dispatches for MM/Escorts to remain flat YoY.
Valuation and view:
While we anticipate the 2W segment to continue
outperforming other segments even in FY25, this appears to be fully priced-in
after the recent strong rally in 2W stocks. MSIL is our top pick among auto OEMs
as it continues to be a play on rural recovery with attractive valuation. We also like
MM, given its healthy demand momentum in both SUVs and tractors for FY25.
30 September 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Snapshot of estimated volumes for Sep-24
YoY
Company Sales
YoY
Sep-24 Sep-23
(%) chg
Maruti Suzuki
1,87,333 1,81,343 3.3
Domestic
1,63,246 1,58,832 2.8
Export
24,087 22,511
7.0
Mahindra &
1,23,767 1,18,814 4.2
Mahindra
UV (incl. pick-ups)
68,900 66,544
3.5
LCV & M&HCV
3,700
1,139 224.8
Three-Wheelers
7,525
7,921
-5.0
Tractors
43,642 43,210
1.0
Tata Motors
82,432 84,381 -2.3
HCV's
16,895 19,199 -12.0
LCV's
16,885 19,865 -15.0
CV's
33,780 39,064 -13.5
PVs
48,652 45,317
7.4
Hero MotoCorp
5,95,514 5,36,499 11.0
Bajaj Auto
4,40,781 3,92,558 12.3
Two-Wheelers
3,73,222 3,27,712 13.9
Three-Wheelers
67,559 64,846
4.2
Domestic
2,94,709 2,53,193 16.4
Exports
1,46,073 1,39,365 4.8
Ashok Leyland
18,245 19,202 -5.0
M&HCV
11,859 12,752 -7.0
LCV
6,386
6,450
-1.0
TVS Motor
4,35,013 4,02,553 8.1
Motorcycles
1,97,624 1,86,438 6.0
Scooters
1,75,744 1,55,526 13.0
Mopeds
45,891 44,991
2.0
Three-Wheelers
15,754 15,598
1.0
Domestic
3,28,702 3,02,259 8.7
Exports
1,06,312 1,00,294 6.0
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
77,008 78,580 -2.0
VECV
7,213
7,198
0.2
Escorts Kubota
10,996 10,861
1.2
Rs
(%)
Gr.
FY25E
chg
(%)
10,66,024 10,50,085 1.5 21,99,154 3.0
9,21,389 9,17,543 0.4 18,90,912 20.7
1,44,635 1,32,542 9.1 3,08,242 8.9
FY25YTD FY24YTD
6,49,109 6,04,066
3,77,264
19,511
38,099
2,14,235
4,56,012
83,463
95,775
1,79,238
2,76,774
30,13,304
22,94,810
19,56,858
3,37,952
14,50,154
8,44,657
90,529
56,847
33,682
22,67,916
10,43,622
8,97,785
2,52,719
73,790
17,10,492
5,57,425
3,49,824
9,946
39,226
2,05,070
4,69,269
83,622
1,06,258
1,89,880
2,79,389
27,69,100
20,81,360
17,70,913
3,10,447
12,79,112
8,02,248
91,175
58,251
32,924
20,27,622
9,56,248
7,69,985
2,23,621
77,768
15,23,186
5,04,436
7.5 13,75,458 14.5
7.8
96.2
-2.9
4.5
-2.8
-0.2
-9.9
-5.6
-0.9
8.8
10.3
10.5
8.9
13.4
5.3
-0.7
-2.4
2
11.9
9.1
16.6
13.0
-5.1
12.3
10.5
8,57,112
28,805
88,451
4,01,089
9,72,695
1,88,426
2,13,793
4,02,219
5,70,476
60,58,320
46,08,035
39,22,724
6,85,311
28,22,977
17,85,058
2,08,799
1,34,526
74,273
46,35,552
21,64,428
17,85,238
5,19,758
1,66,129
34,99,853
11,35,699
18.0
50.1
14.0
6.0
0.3
4.0
-0.4
1.6
6.0
7.8
9.1
9.0
10.0
9.2
9.1
7.3
7.7
6.4
10.6
8.6
13.9
7.3
13.7
10.1
12.1
MoM
MoM
Aug-24
(%) chg
1,81,782 3.1
1,55,779 4.8
26,003
-7.4
98,672
63,955
3,474
9,326
21,917
71,693
12,708
14,499
27,207
44,486
5,12,360
3,97,804
3,35,178
62,626
2,53,827
1,43,977
14,463
8,663
5,800
3,91,588
1,70,486
1,63,629
44,726
12,747
2,91,612
99,976
73,629
6,543
5,614
25.4
7.7
6.5
-19.3
99.1
15.0
32.9
16.5
24.2
9.4
16.2
10.8
11.4
7.9
16.1
1.5
26.1
36.9
10.1
11.1
15.9
7.4
2.6
23.6
12.7
6.3
4.6
10.2
95.9
Residual
Growth
(%)
4.4
49.4
8.7
21.6
27.4
0.5
31.3
7.8
3.3
7.7
8.8
8.3
13.5
6.8
8.1
7.5
11.1
5.1
12.8
14.3
16.6
10.1
9.4
8.1
11.3
2.3
35.0
8.1
13.7
3.0
12.4
9.2
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
1,88,855
1,61,587
27,268
79,975
1,549
8,392
31,142
86,114
17,494
19,670
37,163
48,950
5,07,503
3,85,537
3,27,644
57,893
2,28,804
1,56,733
19,712
12,947
6,765
3,94,606
1,86,801
1,47,909
44,506
15,390
2,98,227
96,379
78,265
8,701
8,599
FY25 YTD
Monthly
Run rate
1,77,671
1,53,565
24,106
62,877
3,252
6,350
35,706
76,002
13,911
15,963
29,873
46,129
5,02,217
3,82,468
3,26,143
56,325
2,41,692
1,40,776
15,088
9,475
5,614
3,77,986
1,73,937
1,49,631
42,120
12,298
2,85,082
92,904
73,987
6,680
8,017
1,21,058 1,08,185
4,43,923 4,56,986 -2.9 9,13,511 0.1
40,080
39,122 2.4 92,288 7.9
48,099
48,606 -1.0 99,692 4.0
Source: Company, MOFSL
30 September 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Comparative valuations
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
Eicher Motors
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Escorts
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
SAMIL
CIE Automotive
CEAT
Balkrishna Ind
MRF
Apollo Tyres
Sona BLW
Tube Investments
MSUMI
CRAFTSMAN
Happy Forgings
Rating
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
CMP
(INR)
12,683
5,954
2,946
5,060
13,497
3,182
992
240
4,327
1,521
497
1,392
37,976
2,356
215
544
3,247
3,044
1,40,976
547
736
4,145
72
6,405
1,177
P/E (x)
FY25E FY26E
42.6 32.8
25.7 21.5
51.6 42.1
32.5 29.3
28.1 24.1
29.9 25.5
16.6 14.2
20.3 16.4
44.5 34.9
43.7
35.2
26.3
51.6
37.9
33.5
22.9
21.2
36.2
29.7
20.6
69.3
68.4
43.5
45.1
34.6
32.5
27.6
22.3
43.6
29.0
26.1
18.8
16.9
27.9
25.4
16.5
55.3
55.7
34.2
29.3
26.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY25E FY26E
32.1
26.0
17.5
15.0
32.1
27.0
29.3
26.3
18.6
15.8
22.2
19.0
6.1
4.9
13.0
10.5
31.1
27.8
23.6
20.4
14.7
46.8
21.1
13.3
13.8
9.6
22.1
13.2
9.2
37.0
33.2
27.0
14.2
22.7
18.9
16.6
12.6
39.2
17.5
11.3
11.2
8.4
17.5
11.6
8.0
30.1
27.2
21.6
11.0
18.3
PB (x)
FY25E FY26E
12.7 11.8
6.2
5.7
14.0 11.0
6.7
5.8
4.5
3.9
3.1
2.6
3.5
2.8
6.7
5.5
5.2
4.7
8.7
3.0
3.4
8.5
5.8
5.0
3.1
2.9
5.9
3.2
1.8
13.4
12.9
15.6
3.9
6.0
7.3
2.8
3.0
7.7
5.0
4.4
2.8
2.5
5.1
2.9
1.7
11.6
10.6
12.5
3.4
5.1
FY25E Yield (%)
Div
FCF
1.6
1.8
2.9
3.3
0.3
1.2
1.1
4.3
1.1
1.6
0.7
2.8
0.4
4.1
2.5
4.0
0.4
2.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.5
0.1
1.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.4
3.9
1.0
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.9
6.0
0.9
1.3
0.8
0.3
1.3
EPS CAGR (%)
FY24-26E
18.4
16.4
26.4
8.7
14.8
18.5
9.2
26.3
14.3
54.0
20.7
12.2
18.5
31.1
49.1
17.1
6.6
19.4
5.5
7.3
22.0
47.1
21.1
23.1
32.0
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
30 September 2024
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
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No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
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Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
MOTILAL Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the
United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under
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described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer,
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For Singapore
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of MOCMSPL. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by MOCMSPL
write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com.
Nainesh Rajani
Email:
nainesh.rajani@motilaloswal.com
Contact: (+65) 8328 0276
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Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change
without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their
directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email
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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
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