Sector Update
Update | Financials
Sector
| 3 October 2024
Capital Market
F&O regulations: The cat’s out of the bag
Final measures tad better than consultation paper
SEBI has finally announced regulations to curb F&O volumes and strengthen the
framework. Most of the measures are similar to the ones announced in the
consultation paper released on 30th July’24.
However, one measure from the consultation paper did not find a mention in the final
regulation (rationalization of tick size) and two measures came in a relatively better
form: 1) Minimum contract size increased to at least INR1.5m vs. INR2-3m in two
phases in the consultation paper and 2) increase in extreme loss margin only on the
expiry day at 2% vs. the 8% cumulative increase on pre-expiry and expiry day in the
consultation paper.
The regulations will be partially implemented from Nov’24 and, resultantly, the impact
on volumes will be visible from Dec’24.
Our sensitivity analysis yields nil earnings impact for Angel One in FY26 if the order
volumes are down 10% vs. our assumption of 16% growth and the company is able to
increase its realization from INR19.7 to INR25. We maintain our BUY rating on
ANGELONE.
Similarly, for BSE earnings, the hit would be miniscule if the derivative volumes decline
by 20% instead of a 22% increase built in our forecasts and the premium to notional
turnover ratio increases from 0.072% to 0.09%. We maintain our Neutral rating on
BSE.
Angel One: Levers will be used at appropriate time to offset the profitability
hit
If all the measures listed in the consultation paper are included in the final
regulations, turnover volumes for ANGELONE are likely to be impacted.
However, it is difficult to ascertain the absolute impact at the current juncture.
Most importantly, changes in customer behavior are difficult to predict. In the
past, the allocation of customers’ money from their wallets to trading activities
has not changed meaningfully even after regulatory changes.
Which measure to implement and the quantum of charges will be decided as
and when they regulations are implemented and some impact is visible. Actions
by competitors will be tracked closely before executing any of these steps. The
choice for ANGELONE and its peers will be between 1) taking a hit on margins,
leading to a higher market share, and 2) raising the charges and risking losing
some market share in the interim.
Important criteria before deciding on final actions for ANGELONE would be the
impact on LTV of the customer from these regulations. Ideally, since the
measures are aimed at reducing customer losses (if implemented), the longevity
of the customer in the system increases. Additional products will only add to the
LTV in the longer term, thus giving the company the ability to spend on higher
acquisitions.
Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain
(Prayesh.Jain@MotilalOswal.com)
/ Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Muskan Chopra
(Muskan.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com)
/ Kartikeya Mohata
(Kartikeya.Mohata@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
3 October 2024
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
In FY26, if the number of orders for Angel One falls by 10% instead of 16%
growth factored in our estimates and the company does not take a price hike or
prune its customer acquisition costs, earnings will be down 33% as compared to
our current estimate.
Against this, if the company increases its average gross broking realization from
INR19.7 to INR25, the impact on earnings will be largely nullified.
The company demonstrated its willingness to protect profitability through the
pricing action announced today (cash delivery broking charge increased from nil
to INR20/order or 0.1% per executed order).
In the past, the company has used customer acquisition as a variable lever to
offset the impact in terms of slowdown in volumes.
ANGELONE could see transitionary hit to earnings as the regulations are
implemented and the company gauges the impact before making corrective
actions. However, we believe the company is in a transformational phase
wherein share of financial products distribution (loans and fixed income), wealth
management and AMC, will start contributing meaningfully over the next couple
of years. We retain our BUY rating on the stock.
BSE: Product innovation will be key to offset the impact
BSE has scaled up its derivatives market share to 27%/13.3% in terms of notional
turnover/premium turnover in Sep’24. This has been on the back of product
innovation wherein they launched the expiries on different days vs the existing
products of NSE.
Large market share for BSE arises out of Sensex rather than Bankex. With now
only one benchmark index will be available for launch of weekly expiry, NSE/BSE
will continue with Nifty/Sensex. Earlier since NSE had an expiry on all days
except Friday, BSE found it difficult to scale up volumes. Nevertheless, BSE will
now have three more days to compete against NSE.
Product innovation could be an alternative wherein new contracts can be
launched on new indices with monthly expiries in different weeks.
For BSE, since large volumes were happening on expiry day, its premium to
notional turnover ratio was at 0.07% vs 0.16% for NSE (Sep’24). With probability
of volumes increasing on farther than expiry days, this ratio would increase for
BSE. This will not only help in revenues but also in bringing down the clearing
and settlement costs.
For FY26, if we assume notional ADTO to decline by 20% instead of a 22%
increase factored in our current estimates, all other factors being the same, the
earnings hit will be 9% for BSE. In our current estimates, the share of derivatives
in overall revenues is 45% for BSE in FY26.
If the premium to notional turnover for the options segment increases from
0.072% assumed in our forecast to 0.09%, as the volumes will start increasing
farther from expiry, the impact will be nullified for BSE.
Additional upsides could come from 1) the volume shift to cash segment and 2)
if the premium to notional turnover increases, the clearing and settlement costs
could decline
BSE should be relatively lesser impacted in the new regulatory environment vs
NSE. Furthermore, the exchange has other revenue drivers such as colocation
segment and new products (commodities and power). We currently have a
Neutral rating on the stock.
3 October 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 1: Final regulations vs. recommendations in the consultation paper
Measure
Consultation paper
Final regulation
Rationalization of strike price
Recommended to reduce strikes
No mention
Upfront collection of options
Members to collect option premiums on
Implementation from Feb'25
premium
an upfront basis from clients
The position limits for index derivative
Intraday monitoring of
contracts shall also be monitored by the
Implementation from Apr'25
clearing corporations/stock exchanges on
position limits
an intra-day basis
Removal of calendar spread
Removal of the benefit was
Implementation from Feb'25
benefit on the expiry day
recommended
To be increased in two phases 1) INR1.5m
Minimum contract size
to INR2m and 2) after 6 months to INR2m
Increased to minimum INR1.5m
to INR3m
Weekly options contracts are to be
Rationalization of weekly
provided on a single benchmark index of
Implementation from Nov'24
index products
an exchange
1) At the start of the day before expiry,
Extreme Loss Margin (ELM) to be
An additional ELM of 2% for
Increase in margin near
increased by 3%
short options contracts,
contract expiry
2) At the start of the expiry day, ELM to be
implementation from Nov'24
further increased by 5%
Better/Same/Worse
Better
Same
Same
Same
Better
Same
Better
Source: MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Impact on brokers and exchanges because of implementation of the measures
Measures
Upfront collection of options premium
Intraday monitoring of position limits
Brokers
Exchanges
Impact on volumes, if smaller brokers are not
Already doing it, so relatively lesser hit
collecting the premium upfront
Compliance costs to increase a bit
Compliance costs to increase a bit
HNIs and institutions will have to bring more
Retail customers may not be using it
margins and hence some volume hit can be
materially and hence limited impact
envisaged, we expect more hit for NSE vs BSE
Impact to the extent of retail volumes, HNI and
Largely retail base and hence impact in
institutional volumes should be relatively less
volumes can be material
impacted
Volumes could be hit as number of
NSE has larger number of weekly expiries and
weekly expiries reduce, volumes could
hence a relatively larger hit, BSE could see lesser
shift to other days or other segments
hit as volume hit of Bankex volumes can be offset
(cash/commodities)
by higher volumes on other days
HNIs and institutions will have to bring more
Largely retail base who are buyers of
margins and hence some volume hit can be
options and hence no material impact
envisaged
Source: MOFSL
Removal of calendar spread benefit on the
expiry day
Minimum contract size
Rationalization of weekly index products
Increase in margin near contract expiry
Exhibit 3: Angel One FY26 PAT sensitivity to Revenue per order and change in number of orders
No of orders
1,191
1,390
1,588
1,787
1,985
2,184
2,303
2,581
2,780
Change vs FY25
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
16%
30%
40%
19.7
5,125
7,269
9,412
11,555
13,699
15,842
17,128
20,129
22,272
20.7
5,778
8,031
10,283
12,535
14,787
17,039
18,391
21,544
23,796
21.7
6,432
8,793
11,154
13,515
15,876
18,237
19,653
22,959
25,320
Revenue per order
22.7
7,085
9,554
12,024
14,494
16,964
19,434
20,916
24,373
26,843
23.7
7,738
10,316
12,895
15,474
18,052
20,631
22,178
25,788
28,367
24.7
8,391
11,078
13,766
16,453
19,141
21,828
23,441
27,203
29,891
25.7
9,044
11,840
14,636
17,433
20,229
23,026
24,703
28,618
31,415
Source: Company, MOFSL
3 October 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 4: BSE FY26 PAT sensitivity to change in derivatives segment ADTO and Premium/Notional Turnover ratio
13,449
-20
-10
-
10
22.1
30
40
0.06
11,434
11,615
11,797
11,978
12,197
12,340
12,522
0.07
12,254
12,538
12,822
13,105
13,449
13,673
13,957
Premium/Notional turnover ratio
0.08
0.09
0.1
12,768
13,435
14,102
13,116
13,866
14,616
13,464
14,298
15,131
13,812
14,729
15,646
14,233
15,251
16,269
14,508
15,592
16,675
14,856
16,023
17,190
0.11
14,769
15,367
15,965
16,563
17,287
17,759
18,357
0.12
15,436
16,117
16,798
17,480
18,305
18,843
19,524
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Demat account addition and ADTO trends have sustainably remained strong in
spite of several regulatory changes in the past few years
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Number of retail customers in cash segment and F&O segment
Source: NSE, MOFSL
3 October 2024
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 7: Share of individuals is at 34% in premium turnover on YTD basis
Corporates
DIIs
4%
0%
Fis
10%
Prop
49%
Others
3%
Individuals
34%
Source: NSE, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: 46% of the customers trade in less than INR100k premium turnover during a
month and their share in premium turnover is 0.3%
Premium turnover range
INR
<10k
10k-100k
100k-1m
1m-10m
10m-100m
>100m
Total
Turnover
INR b
1
25
276
1,322
2,197
9,985
13,807
Share in Turnover Unique investors Share in investors
%
m
m
0
0.92
20.2
0.2
1.18
25.9
2
1.44
31.6
9.6
0.83
18.2
15.9
0.17
3.7
72.3
0.01
0.2
4.55
Source: NSE, MOFSL
Exhibit 9:
BSE’s market share trend in notional turnover
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
26.8%
Exhibit 10:
BSE’s market share trend in premium turnover
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
13.3%
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 11:
Angel One order mix in cash segment
Intra-day
100
75
50
25
-
Delivery
Exhibit 12:
Angel One order mix in F&O segment
400
300
200
100
-
Options
Futures
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
3 October 2024
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 13:
Angel One F&O Market share
F&O Market share
22.8%
20.8% 21.7% 21.6%
19.8% 20.4%
17.9% 18.6%
17.1%
Exhibit 14:
Angel One Cash segment market share
Cash Market share
15.4% 16.6%
14.0% 15.1%
13.9% 13.8% 13.3%
12.3% 13.4%
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Market share prior to 1QFY24 is based on notional turnover for options and post that it is based on premium turnover
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
3 October 2024
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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3 October 2024
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
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which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
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described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person
Contact No.
Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
022 40548082
servicehead@motilaloswal.com
Mr. Ajay Menon
022 40548083
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
3 October 2024
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