14 October 2024

Semiconductor

Expert Speak

India's Semiconductor Potential

We hosted an expert session on capitalizing on India’s semiconductor potential with Mr. Ajit

Manocha, the president and CEO of SEMI and a member of the India Semiconductor Mission

(ISM) advisory board. He brings over four decades of experience in the semiconductor industry,

including over five years of service in the US President Obama’s committee. Mr. Ajit spoke

about the scope of semiconductors in India and how the country can expand its share in

semiconductor manufacturing with the help of government initiatives. The Indian

semiconductor market is expected to clock 19.6% CAGR and reach INR80.3b by FY28. Several

components used in the manufacturing of semiconductors are imported from foreign

countries; however, the same can be indigenized in future. The vision, mission, strategy, and

ambition are all set in place to transform India into a powerhouse of semiconductors.

Additionally, recent policies (ISM 1.0 and expected ISM 2.0) implemented by the government

will attract foreign entities to install manufacturing plants in India and facilitate new start-ups

to commence business in semiconductor manufacturing.

Members of SEMI are spread across the value chain, from equipment and materials to

fabless and foundry to electronics systems (PCBs, etc.). The idea behind SEMI is to

enable the semiconductor industry to grow in the next two decades, driven by Smart

Data-AI, Smart Manufacturing, Smart Mobility, and Smart Medtech. According to the

expert, the global semiconductor market is expected to reach USD1t by 2030. The

demand for semiconductors is driven by three waves: 1) the first wave IoT is led by

cloud, IoT, and the transition toward industry 4.0; 2) the second prevailing wave is led by

AI; and 3) the third wave Quantum is led by 6G/7G, quantum, and the Industry 5.0

adoption. This is likely to result in 108 300mm and 200mm new fabs coming online

between CY23 and CY27, and 50+ more fabs needed through CY30 to support the AI

wave. Each investment varies from USD3b to USD22b per fab. This will also result in the

production of 60m more wafers spread across memory, logic/foundary, and others. All

these factors will support the growth of the semiconductor market, which is expected to

post a CAGR of over 10% during CY23-CY30. The market has the potential to continue growing and clock 8% CAGR

beyond CY30.

Key highlights of the discussion

SEMI network is the gateway to the USD3t+ target

Mr. Ajit Manocha

Mr. Ajit Manocha is the

President and CEO of

SEMI. He has 4+ decades

of sterling career in the

semiconductor industry

spreading across

companies such as

GlobalFoundaries,

Philips/NXP, Bell

Laboratories and the

Semiconductor Industry

Association. He had the

rare distinction of being

inducted into two Hall of

Fames:- Silicon Valley

Engineering Council –

2020, VLSI Research –

2021. He was honored

with the ELCINA Special

Jury Award, Ambassador

of India Electronics

Industry – 2024, and is a

Member of India

Semiconductor Mission

(ISM) Advisory Board.

India’s semiconductor market posted 12.6% CAGR, reaching USD33b, during FY17-FY23. It is expected to reach

USD80.3b by FY28, posting 19.6% CAGR during FY23-FY28. Although the semiconductor business is capital-intensive

in nature, it is a highly profitable industry globally. The government has taken several initiatives to promote

semiconductor manufacturing and learn from the experience of global players. India is currently rich in design

capacity, with 20% of total design houses located in the country. These houses are also involved in designing AI-

enabled chips used across various segments. Further, players are now investing in establishing fab and OSAT

facilities. SEMI estimates that around 1m positions will need to be filled in the semiconductors industry by 2030.

India, which produces 800k fresh engineers annually and has expertise in software development and design, can

play a significant role in addressing the talent shortage globally.

Scope for the Indian semiconductor sector

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

11 September 2024

1

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Teena Virmani - Research Analyst

(Teena.Virmani@MotilalOswal.com)

Research Analyst - Prerit Jain

(prerit.jain@motilaloswal.com) |

Harsh Tewaney

(Harsh.Tewaney@MotilalOswal.com)

Expert Speak

Ecosystem for Indian semiconductor companies

Countries such as Taiwan and South Korea, though relatively smaller, are the powerhouses of semiconductors. India

has already initiated path towards manufacturing Fabs and will now have to focus to invite players to invest in key

raw materials. Though AI-enabled chips are designed in India, the country largely depends on imports for raw

material components, such as SiC, gallium arsenide, chemicals, and gases, of all semiconductor-enabled products.

India has a strong chemical industry; however, the materials required for semiconductors are of ultra-high purity,

and only a few countries possess the capabilities to produce them. In order to support the growth of the

semiconductor market, many material companies are planning to expand their base in India. Japan is a market

leader in material substrates, followed by Europe and US. However, we are still awaiting large-scale announcements

from players.

ISM2.0 is under discussion

The government launched the initial scheme to incentivize semiconductor manufacturing in Dec’21 with an outlay of

INR760b, which is now called ISM 1.0. The government is also working on ISM 2.0, which will be an expanded

version of the first phase of the program.

Ramp-up in India’s semiconductor journey

In Sep’24, the government of India announced its India Semiconductor Mission, stating it will provide 50% financial

support to companies setting up semiconductor manufacturing facilities in India. This policy has attracted

investments worth more than INR1.5t in India in a short period, with many more projects in the pipeline.



Micron's OSAT Facility, Sanand

American chipmaker Micron Technology is setting up an OSAT plant in Gujarat’s Sanand. The facility will focus on

assembling and testing DRAM and NAND products, catering to both domestic and international markets.



Tata Electronics, Dholera - Nation's First Fab

Tata Electronics, in collaboration with PSMC of Taiwan, is establishing a mega semiconductor fabrication facility (fab)

at Dholera, Gujarat. This will be India’s first advanced chip manufacturing plant and have a production capacity of

50,000 wafers per month.



Tata Electronics, Morigaon – Nation’s First Indigenous Semiconductor Assembly and Testing Facility

Tata Electronics is setting up India’s first semiconductor unit in the North East region by establishing a greenfield

semiconductor assembly and testing facility at Jagiroad in Morigaon, Assam. This unit will focus on three key

platform technologies: wire bond, flip chip, and Integrated Systems Packaging (ISP), with a production capacity of 48

million chips per day.



CG Power's Sanand OSAT

CG Power has teamed up with Japan’s Renesas Electronics Corporation and Thailand’s Stars Microelectronics to

establish an OSAT facility in Sanand, Gujarat. The factory will manufacture a diverse range of products, from legacy

packages to advanced solutions, serving industries such as automotive, consumer electronics, industrial applications,

and 5G technology. It is designed to scale up production to 15 m units per day.



Kaynes Semicon Plant, Gujarat

Kaynes plans to establish its OSAT unit in Sanand, Gujarat, with a total capacity of 6.3m chips per day at an

investment of INR33b.

Larger scale to result in cost efficiencies

Currently, due to a smaller scale, India’s fabs will be 30% costlier than those made in Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

However, as companies achieve scale by targeting demand from a wider user-base segment as well as exports, the

pricing of chips will decline.

14 October 2024

2

Expert Speak

Key charts

Exhibit 1: Demand for semiconductors is growing multi-fold across areas

Source: McKinsey & Co., Markets and Markets research, GSMA, World Economic Forum, Allied Market Research, AMJC, and The White House

Exhibit 2: Semiconductor market forecast: Three waves of disruptions driving exponential growth to USD1t by CY30

Source: WSTS, Gartner, and SEMI Market Intelligence Team Forecast

14 October 2024

3

Expert Speak

Exhibit 3: Fab expansions to realize USD1t

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast 3Q24 (Sep’24)

Exhibit 4: FAB and OSAT investments planned in India

Scheme

Modified scheme for setting up

semicon fabs in India

Modified scheme for setting up

compound semicon/silicon

photonics/sensors fab and

semicon/ATMP/OSAT facilities in

India











Applicant

TEPL (commercial fab)

Micron Technology Inc. (ATMP)

TEPL (OSAT)

CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd. (ATMP)

Kaynes (OSAT)

Total Project Eligible Project Cost Incentive Approved

Cost (INR b)

(INR b)

(INR b)

915

225

271

76

33

680

225

204

70

33

340

113

102

35

17

Source: Industry, Company

Exhibit 5: India semiconductor market (USD b)

CAGR (FY17-FY23): 12.6%

CAGR (FY23-FY28E): 19.6%

14.8%

22.0%

Semi-conductor market

28.4%

19.6%

19.1%

19.3%

19.2%

19.5%

20.2%

YoY %

2.2%

16.2

FY17

18.6

FY18

22.7

FY19

23.2

FY20

-7.3%

21.5

FY21

27.6

FY22

33

FY23

39.3

FY24E

46.9

FY25E

55.9

FY26E

66.8

FY27E

80.3

FY28E

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

14 October 2024

4

Expert Speak

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