November 2024
India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 80,234
OUR RECENT
STRATEGY REPORTS
Nifty-50: 24,275
The Winners and Laggards!
Presenting our top preferred ideas after a muted earnings season
Corporate earnings moderate YoY after a solid 21% CAGR over FY20-24
After a healthy 21% CAGR over FY20-24, corporate earnings have moderated in
1HFY25. Earnings growth for MOFSL Universe (-1% YoY) and Nifty-50 (+4% YoY) in
2QFY25 was the lowest in 8 and 17 quarters, respectively. However, excluding global
commodities, it remained strong at 12%/11% YoY for MOFSL/Nifty-50 Universe.
Since Aug’24, we have reduced our FY25 estimates for Nifty EPS by 5%, and we now
expect a modest 5% growth for Nifty earnings in FY25, the first year of single-digit
growth in five years. However, compared to the muted 1H, we expect corporate
earnings to recover in 2HFY25 (9% YoY growth for MOFSL Universe in 2HFY25 vs. flat
YoY performance in 1H), aided by a rise in rural spending, a buoyant wedding season
in 2HFY25 (30% higher weddings YoY), and a pick-up in government spending.
A welcome correction in equity markets
Indian stock markets corrected 11-12% from the top over Sep-Nov’24, due to a
variety of factors, viz. earnings moderation and elevated valuations in mid-caps and
small caps, along with global factors, such as a fragile geopolitical backdrop in the
Middle East and a strengthening dollar index after the Trump victory. FIIs sold
equities worth ~USD14b in Oct-Nov’24. The correction has cooled off the valuations
in large-caps, even as mid/small-caps trade at expensive multiples – Nifty-50 is now
trading at 19.6x FY26E EPS, while mid-cap/small-cap indices are trading at 30x/23x
one-year forward P/E multiples, off from the Sep’24 highs but still rich vs. their own
history as well as relative to Nifty-50.
NDA’s sweep in Maharashtra to boost sentiment and policy momentum
The BJP’s decisive victory in the recent Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections
will boost overall sentiment, strengthen policy momentum, expedite the key infra
projects, and increase focus on overall govt. spending going ahead (govt. spending
remained flat YoY, while capex was down 17% YoY in 1HFY25), in our view. This poll
result will also bolster the perception around the political capital of PM Narendra
Modi, especially given the minor setback NDA suffered in 2024 Loksabha polls.
Presenting the WINNERS and LAGGARDS
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The recent correction and the consequent moderation in valuations provide an
opportunity to add select bottom-up ideas. We notice that even in a muted quarter,
several companies delivered resilient performance. In this report, we present (page
3 onwards) 10 WINNERS and 5 LAGGARDS based on the 2Q earnings print. Apart
from strong earnings performance, the shortlisted winning ideas are the ones for
which MOFSL Research Team has high conviction and/or are part of MOFSL Model
Portfolio.
Winners:
SBI, L&T, M&M, Sun Pharma, Indian Hotels, Page Industries, Ipca
Labs, Angel One, Amber Enterprises, Atul
Laggards:
TATA Motors, Asian Paints, Avenue Supermarts, ABB India,
IndusInd Bank
Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Deven Mistry
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com) |
Aanshul Agarawal
(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.