5 December 2024
E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
Capex Tracker: Corporate investments grow very slowly in FY24
Government and household capex healthy
After growing strongly in the past two quarters (4QFY24 and 1QFY25), our estimates suggest that corporate investments
weakened once again in 2QFY25. In contrast, government investments (center + states) picked up in 2Q after falling in
1Q, though household investments continued to grow decently. In 1HFY25, thus, while government investments declined
12.6% YoY (vs +33.8% in 1HFY24), corporate investments were up 10% YoY (vs -1.4%) and household investments rose
12.2% (vs +17.6%). This regular
update
is intended to track India’s capex trends and key drivers.
Government investments grew 4.9% YoY in 2QFY25, implying that it shrank 12.6% YoY in 1HFY25. The center’s capex
grew 15% YoY in 2QFY25, implying a fall of 13.4% YoY in 1HFY25, while states’ capex declined for the second consecutive
quarter in 2QFY25, leading to a fall of 11.5% YoY in 1HFY25. Compared to its peak of 5.1% of GDP in FY24, fiscal
investments were down to 3.9% of GDP in 1HFY25, led by a sharper fall in states’ capex (at 1.6% of GDP) and moderation
in the center’s capex (to 2.3% of GDP).
Accordingly, the government sector accounted for 12.3% of total investments in 1HFY25, similar to the pre-pandemic
years but lower than the average of 14.6% in the past four years (FY21-FY24). This also indicates that private investments
grew only 11.1% YoY in 1HFY25 vs. 7.4% in FY24 and an average of 9.7% during FY20-24.
Using data on stamp duty and registration fees collected by states, our estimates suggest that household investment
(primarily residential real estate) grew 12.2% YoY in 1HFY25, following 10.7% growth in FY24. This means that the
household sector accounted for ~44% of India’s total investments in 1HFY25, the highest since FY04.
Lastly, as a residual, we find that corporate investments (including PSEs) picked up and reported 10% YoY growth in
1HFY25, following a fall of 1.4% in 1HFY24 (and a growth of 4.3% in FY24). The share of the corporate sector, thus, inched
up ~44% in 1HFY25, compared to its two-decade low of 42.2% in FY24.
Overall, investment growth weakened in 1HFY25, primarily led by the government. On the other hand, household
investments grew decently but weaker than in the recent past. Corporate investments grew decently in 1QFY25, though
they moderated in 2QFY25. As fiscal investments pick up in 2HFY25, it would be interesting to note if the corporate and
household sectors continue to grow their investments.
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For the first time in two years, India’s real investments (including fixed investments,
changes in inventories, and valuables) grew slower than the total consumption
(private + government) in 2QFY25. After growing 9.4% in FY24, real investments
increased 6.5% YoY in 1HFY25, with only 5.9% growth in 2Q. Further, nominal
investments were broadly unchanged at ~34% of GDP in 1HFY25 vs 1HFY24, but
better than ~31% in the pre-pandemic years
(Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 2: Corporate sector’s share slid in FY24, while that of
the government picked up
Sectoral investments#
(% of total)
5.2
5.4
5.2
5.9
39.7
Corporate
5.5
6.4
37.4
Household
4.8
7.7
39.5
Center
6.0
9.1
42.0
States
Exhibit 1: India’s investment rate was broadly unchanged at
~34% of GDP in 1HFY25
Total investments* (% of GDP)
35.7
32.6
30.9
30.9
32.0
30.8
32.6
33.6 33.9 33.8
4.5
6.9
32.7
5.0
7.3
43.8
39.1
26.0
50.4
49.2
55.9
50.7
48.1
42.9
43.9
1HFY15
1HFY17
1HFY19
1HFY21
1HFY23
1HFY25
1HFY19 1HFY20 1HFY21 1HFY22 1HFY23 1HFY24 1HFY25
# GFCF + Change in inventories
MOFSL estimates
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
* GFCF + Change in inventories + Valuables
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha
– Research analyst
(Tanisha.Ladha@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
After growing rapidly in FY24, government investments declined sharply in 1HFY25
as corporate and household investments grew better
(Exhibit 2).
To provide a
comprehensive and succinct analysis of India’s investments, we present a
compilation of 13 monthly and 6 quarterly indicators in this note. We further
segregate the indicators by sectors to provide an insight into the drivers of
investments (Exhibit
3
on the next page).
Key highlights using proxy indicators:
Government’s capex grew
4.9% YoY in 2QFY25, led by
the center as states’ capex
contracted for the second
consecutive quarter.
Private capex (including
PSEs) grew 6.2%/11.1% YoY
in 2Q/1HFY25 vs. an average
growth of 10.2% in the 2010s
decade.
Corporate investments
(including PSEs) picked up
and reported 10% YoY
growth in 1HFY25, following
a fall of 1.4% in 1HFY24 and
growth of 4.3% in FY24.
Using monthly (preliminary) data available for 20 states, our calculations suggest
that the government’s capex grew 4.9% YoY in 2QFY25, led by the center as
states’ capex contracted for the second consecutive quarter. This means that
government investments declined 12.6% YoY in 1HFY25 following an average
growth of 17.1% in the past five years (FY20-FY24), better than the 13.4% average
growth in the previous five years (FY15-FY19).
Government capex, thus, moderated to 3.9% of GDP in 1HFY25 compared to an
average of 3.6% of GDP in the 2010s decade and its peak of 5.1% of GDP in FY24.
The capex of both center and states moderated to 2.3% of GDP and 1.6% of
GDP, respectively, in 1HFY25 compared to 2.7%/2.4% of GDP in FY24
(Exhibits 4-
5).
The government, thus, accounted for 12.3% of total investments in 1HFY25,
the lowest since FY20 and down from 16.0% in FY24.
With total nominal investments growing 6.0%/7.5% YoY in 2Q/1HFY25, such a
decline in government investments suggests that private capex (including PSEs)
grew 6.2%/11.1% YoY vs. an average growth of 10.2% in the 2010s decade.
Within the private sector, using data on stamp duty & registration fees collected
by states, our estimates suggest that household investments (primarily
residential real estate) grew 12.2% YoY in 1HFY25, following 10.7% growth in
FY24.
If so, it confirms that corporate investments (including PSEs) picked up and
reported 10% YoY growth in 1HFY25, following a fall of 1.4% in 1HFY24 and
growth of 4.3% in FY24
(Exhibit 6).
The share of the corporate sector, thus,
inched up ~44% in 1HFY25, compared to its two-decade low of 42.2% in FY24
Accordingly, the share of the household sector increased further to ~44% of
total investments in 1HFY25, much higher than the pre-COVID levels
(Exhibit 7).
It also means that corporate investments rose to 14.1% of GDP in 1HFY25, the
same as in FY23 and better than the two-decade lowest level of 13.0% seen in
FY21. It, however, remains lower than 15-17% of GDP in the pre-COVID decade
(Exhibit 8).
Lastly, it must be noted that the growth in non-mortgage household debt has
moderated in the past 4-5 quarters, lagging behind mortgage debt growth in
1HFY25. Based on SCBs’ data, non-mortgage household debt grew 15.4% in
2QFY25, down from its peak of 22.7% in 1QFY24 and 18.3% growth in mortgage
debt
(Exhibit 9).
Non-mortgage household
debt grew 15.4% in 2QFY25,
down from its peak of
22.7% in 1QFY24 and 18.3%
growth in mortgage debt.
Overall, investment growth weakened in 1HFY25, primarily led by the government.
On the other hand, household investments grew decently but weaker than in the
recent past. Corporate investments grew decently in 1QFY25, though they
moderated in 2QFY25. As fiscal investments pick up in 2HFY25, it would be
interesting to note if the corporate and household sectors continue to grow their
investments.
5 December 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 3: Tracking India’s investments through various indicators
Indicator
Unit
2QFY24
Total real investments
% YoY
10.7
GFCF + Change in inventories
% YoY
11.6
Government investments
Total (general) government
% YoY
22.8
Central government
% YoY
14.9
State governments*
% YoY
32.6
Household (HH) investments
Household investments@
% YoY
19.4
SD&RF collection*
% YoY
17.8
SCBs household debt $
% YoY
18.0
ow:
Mortgage
% YoY
13.5
ow:
Non-mortgage debt
% YoY
19.5
Corporate investments
Corporate investments @
% YoY
3.6
SCBs Corporate debt ^
% YoY
11.5
Infrastructure loans
% YoY
3.0
IIP: Capital goods
% YoY
8.8
Nominal imports of capital goods
% YoY
2.9
Manufacturing capacity utilization@
%
74.0
Current assessment for production capacity@
%
19.3
Expected assessment for production capacity@
%
39.5
Corporate bonds@
% YoY
9.6
Some other common indicators
IIP: Construction ~
% YoY
12.8
Cement production
% YoY
10.3
Steel consumption
% YoY
17.7
Memo items
Total investments (including valuables)
% of GDP
34.8
GFCF + Change in inventories
% of GDP
32.4
General government investments*
% of GDP
6.4
Corporate investments
% of GDP
11.9
Household investments
% of GDP
15.1
SCBs Corporate debt
% of GDP
22.0
Corporate bonds
% of GDP
16.0
SCBs HH debt
% of GDP
28.8
* Based on the data of 20 states up to Sep’24
3QFY24
11.5
9.6
34.6
65.1
11.7
12.6
11.7
18.4
14.3
19.8
4.4
11.5
5.8
7.5
-0.8
74.7
20.4
39.5
11.3
6.5
5.1
14.4
31.6
30.0
4.8
14.3
13.3
22.7
15.9
29.6
4QFY24
8.0
6.4
7.6
0.1
13.6
-1.2
-1.6
18.3
17.1
18.7
17.9
13.3
6.6
4.1
-1.3
76.8
12.1
34.9
9.6
7.1
7.6
10.7
33.9
32.6
5.0
13.5
14.0
22.1
15.7
29.6
1QFY25
7.1
7.4
-30.9
-35.4
-20.8
11.4
11.2
16.6
18.2
16.1
20.3
7.8
5.5
3.0
7.0
74.0
6.6
22.5
10.0
8.1
0.4
15.0
32.8
32.2
4.2
13.3
12.5
22.7
15.8
30.5
2QFY25 FY10-19 FY20-24
5.9
7.3
4.7
5.3
7.3
4.9
4.9
14.9
-5.7
13.0
13.4
16.1
18.3
15.4
-0.9
9.4
2.1
4.9
7.0
0.0
4.8
12.3
13.5
3.3
2.9
12.0
12.6
13.9
11.9
11.4
12.7
14.0
15.5
13.5
10.8
13.0
14.5
1.1
4.3
75.0
5.0
6.1
16.8
5.1
6.1
5.4
15.9
23.1
10.2
11.2
12.9
15.5
14.7
15.8
6.5
4.8
4.5
-0.3
5.1
70.0
8.9
21.0
9.1
4.5
4.8
6.7
1HFY25
6.5
6.6
-12.6
-13.4
-11.5
12.2
12.3
16.1
18.3
15.4
10.0
9.4
2.1
4.0
7.0
74.0
5.7
17.4
13.5
5.7
1.6
13.5
$ Including agricultural, transport operators, trade, and personal loans
# Available from 1QFY11 (% YoY from 1QFY12)
34.7
35.1
31.5
33.8
31.8
33.3
30.1
32.0
6.3
3.6
4.4
3.9
12.7
16.5
13.8
14.1
13.6
12.3
12.4
14.0
22.7
30.0
23.7
22.1
16.0
13.7
16.6
17.0
31.0
22.0
28.6
31.4
@ Quarterly in frequency, monthly
otherwise
^ SCB loans excluding household and NBFC loans
~ Available from Apr’12 (% YoY from Apr’13)
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
5 December 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 4: Fiscal capex declined to 3.9% of GDP in 1HFY25…
(% of GDP)
Government investments
Exhibit 5: …led by the center’s and states’ capex
(% of GDP)
Center
States
FY07
FY10
FY13
FY16
FY19
FY22
FY25*
*1HFY25
FY07
FY10
FY13
FY16
FY19
FY22
FY25*
Source: CGA, CAG, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Household investments continued to grow faster
than corporate investments in 1HFY25
(% YoY)
60
40
20
0
-20
FY13
*1HFY25
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
FY25*
Corporate investments = residual
12.2
10.0
Corporate capex
Household capex
Exhibit 7: Household investments likely inched up further to
14.0% of GDP in 1HFY25
(% of GDP)
Household investments
FY07
FY10
FY13
FY16
FY19
FY22
FY25*
* Almost two-thirds of HH investments are residential real estate
Exhibit 8: Corporate capex has also picked up but remains
subdued
(% of GDP)
Exhibit 9: Non-mortgage debt growth moderated in 1HFY25;
lagging behind mortgage debt growth now
Mortgage debt
25
20
15
15.4
10
5
(% YoY)
18.3
Non-mortgage debt
Corporate investments
FY07
FY10
FY13
FY16
FY19
FY22
FY25*
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
FY25*
FY24 data is MOFSL estimates
Based on only SCBs’ exposure
Source: Various national sources, CEIC, MOFSL
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5 December 2024
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or
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provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The
Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and
the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform
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already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;
www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of
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Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
022 40548082
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Mr. Ajay Menon
022 40548083
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs
and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal
Oswal
Financial Services Limited
(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
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