December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials
Financials: Banks
Result Preview
Muted quarter; unsecured asset quality remains under watch
Higher credit costs drive sharp earnings cuts across mid-size private banks
3QFY25 earnings estimates (INR b)
3Q
YoY
QoQ
PAT
FY25E (%)
(%)
Private Banks
AUBANK
4.9
30.2 -14.5
AXSB
63.9
5.2
-7.6
BANDHAN
8.0
8.6
-15.1
DCBB
1.4
9.3
-11.0
EQUITAS
0.8
-60.3 522.6
FB
10.3
2.2
-2.6
HDFCB
166.4
1.7
-1.0
ICICIBC
114.2 11.2
-2.8
IDFCFB
5.0
-30.1 149.3
IIB
14.4 -37.6
7.9
KMB
33.8
12.4
1.0
RBK
0.7
-70.0 -68.6
Private Total
423.7
2.3
-2.2
PSU Banks
BOB
44.0
-3.9 -16.0
CBK
40.1
9.8
0.0
INBK
25.8
21.8
-4.6
PNB
36.5
64.0 -15.3
SBIN
162.4 77.2 -11.4
UNBK
36.4
1.4
-22.9
PSU Total
345.2 36.3 -12.2
Banks Total
768.9 15.2
-6.9
Credit growth moderates; estimate FY25 credit growth at ~11%:
Systemic
credit growth has declined to ~11.5% from the recent high of ~16% amid a
slowdown in unsecured retail and demand moderation in certain other secured
segments. A few banks have already lowered their growth guidance (IIB, RBK),
while select large banks are also likely to report tepid full-year growth guidance
owing to a high CD ratio and rising asset quality concerns. Slower economic
activity as reflected in a slower GDP growth print is closely watched and may
drive growth moderation in Corporate/SME segments. While the incremental
LDR has moderated to below 80% (~100% in Jul’24), the outstanding LDR
remains elevated at ~80%. We thus estimate credit growth to be at ~11% for
FY25, while expect FY26 growth to be broadly maintained at 12.5%.
Deposit growth stood at 11.5% in Dec’24; CASA accretion remains a challenge:
Deposit growth has broadly followed a narrow range of 10-13% over the past 18
months and is up 7.8% YTD vs. the YTD credit growth of 7%. Further, deposit
competition remains aggressive as many banks are focusing on improving their
CD ratios, while competition from PSU banks is also picking up. CASA accretion
remains a challenge as depositors are locking in money at higher term deposit
rates ahead of a potential reversal in the rate cycle. Consequently, we estimate
the funding cost to stay elevated, thus maintaining pressure on margins. With
rate cuts projected in early CY25, the banking system’s yield will likely witness
further pressure over the coming quarters.
Asset quality stress remains elevated in MFI, unsecured retail; PSU banks are
well placed:
1HFY25 saw a deterioration in asset quality for select lenders, and
we believe that the asset quality stress will continue for lenders (mainly mid-size
private banks), especially those with exposure to the unsecured retail and MFI
segments. We factor in a rise in provisioning expenses for select players like IIB,
RBK, Equitas, Bandhan and IDFCFB, while large private/PSU banks are relatively
better positioned to navigate through the current cycle.
Estimate ~12.6% CAGR over FY25-27E for our banking coverage universe:
We
estimate NII for our banking coverage universe to grow ~7.3% YoY in 3QFY25,
while PPoP may grow 13.2% YoY and fall 3.8% QoQ. We thus estimate
private/PSU banks to report earnings growth of 2.3%/36.3% YoY in 3QFY25. We
estimate MOFSL Banking Universe earnings to grow by 15.2% YoY in 3QFY25,
while sector earnings would clock a 12.6% CAGR over FY25-27E.
Private Banks: PAT to grow ~2.3% YoY in 3QFY25 (5.8% YoY in 2QFY25 and
7% YoY in FY25E)
For the private banks under our coverage,
we estimate PPoP growth of 10.4%
YoY/ 0.6% QoQ and PAT growth of 2.3% YoY/decline of 2.2% QoQ in 3QFY25. We
also estimate a 15% CAGR in earnings over FY25-27.
We estimate NII to grow 9.3% YoY in 3QFY25.
Among large private banks under
our coverage, HDFCB’s growth is estimated to be at 6.5% YoY, ICICI at 10.9%
Nitin Aggarwal - Research Analyst
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Dixit Sankharva
(Dixit.sankharva@motilaloswal.com) |
Disha Singhal
(Disha.Singhal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.