December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
Financials - NBFCs
Result Preview
Demand and asset quality trends remain rather weak
Improvement expected in asset quality for 3Q has not materialized
Company
Aavas Financiers
Bajaj Finance
Can Fin Homes
Chola Inv. & Fin.
CreditAccess Grameen
Five Star Business Finance
Fusion Microfinance
HomeFirst
IIFL Finance
L&T Finance Holdings
LIC Housing Finance
M&M Financial Services
Manappuram Finance
MAS Financial Services
Muthoot Finance
PNB Housing Finance
Poonawalla Fincorp
Power finance Corporation
Repco Home Finance
Rural Electrification Corporation
Shriram Finance
Spandana Sphoorty
Demand trends remained relatively weak except for a minor improvement in
Vehicle Finance:
We expect ~9% YoY growth in AUM for our coverage HFC
universe, including both affordable and other HFCs. Vehicle financers are
projected to report ~22% YoY AUM growth. Gold lenders (including non-gold
products) are likely to record ~24% YoY growth. NBFC-MFIs are estimated to
post ~3% YoY growth, while diversified lenders are expected to post ~21% YoY
growth in AUM. For our coverage universe, we estimate a loan growth of ~16%
YoY/~4% QoQ in 3QFY25. Loan growth (relative to our earlier expectations)
continued to remain weak due to calibrated growth in unsecured retail, muted
disbursements in microfinance, and some weakness seen in mortgages
(particularly for select affordable HFCs).
NIMs exhibit slight contraction; expected repo rate cuts to give a breather:
CoB for most NBFCs has remained stable or experienced a slight increase, driven
by higher costs of debt-market borrowings (from a rise in T-bill rates). NIM and
spreads for NBFCs showed signs of slight contraction, primarily due to a rise in
CoB and to a lesser extent from higher liquidity on the balance sheet. Fixed-rate
lenders, such as vehicle financiers, who had implemented lending rate hikes in
previous quarters, will witness healthier NIM expansion, driven by expected
repo rate cuts in 1HCY25. At the sectoral level, we expect NIM to either contract
or remain broadly stable for all NBFCs/HFCs in our coverage except Aavas, CIFC,
and CREDAG, where we expect NIM to expand.
Improvement expected in asset quality for 3Q has not materialized:
Improvement in asset quality expected in the seasonally stronger second half of
the fiscal year has not materialized in 3QFY25. While there was no alarming
deterioration, for most NBFCs/HFCs in our coverage, the asset quality either
remained stable (relative to expectations of an improvement) or exhibited
minor deterioration. Credit costs are expected to remain elevated in MFI, with
expectations of a sequential increase (in absolute terms) for CREDAG and
Spandana but a decline for Fusion. Except for affordable housing and power
financiers, credit costs are expected to remain elevated for vehicle financiers
(except MMFS) and diversified lenders.
PAT growth of ~8% YoY for the coverage universe, driven by weaker NIM,
sticky credit costs, and yet another stressed quarter for NBFC-MFIs:
We
estimate ~15%/15%/8% YoY growth in NII/PPoP/PAT in 3QFY25 for our NBFC
coverage universe. Excluding NBFC-MFI, we estimate ~12% YoY growth in PAT
for our coverage. Among NBFC sub-sectors, our preference is Power Finance,
Housing Finance/Mortgages, and Vehicle Finance (primarily to play the NIM
expansion from repo rate cuts). We maintain underweight in microfinance as
the recovery is likely to be further prolonged, following MFIN’s decision to
postpone the implementation of its three-lender cap to Apr’25. Our top picks in
the sector: SHFL, PFC/REC, and PNBHF.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Abhijit Tibrewal - Research Analyst (Abhijit.Tibrewal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |
Raghav Khemani
(Raghav.Khemani@MotilalOswal.com)
October 2020
are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research
Investors
1
Report.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
Mortgage demand trends exhibit relative weakness for affordable HFCs
Disbursement momentum in large HFCs is expected to outperform that of select
affordable HFCs. Part of the weakness observed in the mortgage space can be
attributed to Karnataka, where the slow pace of e-Khata registrations has
impacted property transactions and led to weak disbursements for lenders with
higher concentration in this state.
NIMs are expected to moderate sequentially for both large and affordable HFCs
(except Aavas) due to an ongoing rise in CoF, higher liquidity on the balance sheet,
and sustained high competitive intensity. Asset quality
has shown no signs of
weakness,
with an improvement bias, and credit costs are expected to remain
benign.
We anticipate credit costs for LICHF to be at ~20bp (vs ~10bp in 2QFY25).
Margin is expected to contract ~5bp QoQ, driven by a slight increase in CoF.
Yields are expected to remain stable QoQ.
We estimate HomeFirst to report a ~19% YoY growth in disbursements, leading
to a healthy AUM growth of ~33% YoY. We expect NIM to expand ~15bp QoQ
for Aavas (aided by the PLR increase in Oct’24), while we expect NIMs to
contract ~30bp QoQ for Homefirst due to the ongoing rise in CoB and higher
liquidity. Asset quality is also expected to remain range-bound for HomeFirst
and Aavas.
We estimate PNBHF to deliver a ~17% YoY growth in loan book as of Dec’24. For
PNBHF, we expect NIM to remain largely stable. Asset quality improvement and
recoveries from the written-off pool in both Retail/Corporate could potentially
result in provision write-backs (like in the previous quarter).
For Five Star, we expect disbursements to decline ~21% YoY as the management
earlier revised its FY25 AUM growth guidance from ~30% to ~25%. We estimate
this to translate into a ~25% YoY growth in AUM. NIMs are likely to remain
stable sequentially. We expect a minor deterioration of ~10-15bp in GS3,
resulting in an increase in credit costs to ~80-85bp (v/s ~70bp in 2QFY25).
Vehicle finance – Disbursements better than expectations; asset quality
improvement still elusive
MMFS reported disbursements of ~INR164b in 3QFY25 (up ~7% YoY). We
estimate an ~18% YoY growth in business assets for MMFS in FY25. We expect
credit costs for MMFS to be at ~1.1% in 3QFY25 (vs. credit costs of 1.4% in
3QFY24), aided by the provision release during the quarter (despite largely
range-bound asset quality).
For CIFC and SHTF, we expect a sequential growth in disbursements, which is
likely to translate into ~31%/18% YoY growth in AUM for CIFC/SHTF as of
Dec’24.
We estimate NIM expansion for vehicle financiers in FY26, driven by a decline in
CoB. Asset quality in vehicle finance has largely remained range-bound in 3Q
with improvement, which is typically seen in 2H of the fiscal year, still elusive.
The expectation of asset quality improvement for vehicle financiers is now
anchored on improvements in the economic activity and agri output in 4Q.
Gold finance – Steady growth in gold loans with some contraction in NIMs
We expect gold loan financiers to deliver healthy gold loan growth and decent
tonnage growth in 3QFY25. Additionally, we anticipate MGFL’s standalone entity
2
January 2025
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
to show decent gold loan growth, though the drag from the ban on Asirvad will
keep consol. gold loan growth muted during the quarter.
We expect ~3%/1% sequential growth in the gold loan portfolio of MUTH/MGFL.
Gold loan NIMs could experience minor QoQ contraction due to a sequential
decline in yields. Asirvad MFI, a subsidiary of MGFL, may face further asset
quality deterioration and elevated credit costs (like in the last quarter).
MFIs continued to experience asset quality stress due to customer
overleveraging in unsecured retail lending. Disbursements were muted for all
three NBFC-MFIs – CREDAG, Fusion, and Spandana – in our coverage universe.
We expect AUM to remain flat for CREDAG and anticipate a decline of ~7%/9%
QoQ in AUM for Fusion/Spandana in 3QFY25.
Higher NPA formation will also result in interest income reversals, which could
lead to pressure on the NIM in 3Q or 4Q, depending on when a particular MFI
takes write-offs.
We expect an increase in PAR90 (or higher write-offs to keep GS3 within certain
thresholds) for all three MFIs in our coverage and significantly elevated credit
costs. We expect credit cost stress to peak in 3QFY25; however, the sectoral
drag is likely to persist until 1QFY26. We estimate
annualized
credit costs of
~8%/ ~21%/35% for CREDAG/Fusion/Spandana in this quarter.
Microfinance – Asset quality pain continues; early green-shoots in Dec’24
Diversified financiers: Unsecured retail remains weak with high credit costs
LTFH reported a ~23% YoY/4% QoQ growth in Retail Loans. Since the company is
not growing its wholesale segments (such as real estate and infrastructure), the
consolidated loan book grew ~2% QoQ in 3QFY25. In our view, LTFH could likely
utilize its macro-prudential provisions (management overlay) for stress in its MFI
business. After factoring in the utilization of this management overlay, we
expect annualized credit costs at ~3.4% in 3QFY25.
BAF is likely to report ~28% YoY/7% QoQ growth in AUM. We estimate a ~5bp
QoQ contraction in NIM for BAF with credit costs at ~2.2% (vs ~2.1% QoQ).
We expect Poonawalla to report ~38% YoY growth in AUM. The company took a
one-time credit cost of ~INR6.7b for its STPL loan book in 2Q. While we do not
expect this to recur, credit costs will remain higher than the normalized run rate
prior to the management change.
For IIFL Finance, we estimate gold loan AUM to grow ~44% QoQ to ~INR155b as
of Dec’24. MFI business disbursements will be weaker than last quarter and MFI
credit costs will be elevated. We estimate a PAT of INR2b in 3Q (vs. loss of
INR1.6b in 2Q which included an exceptional loss of INR5.9b).
Power Financiers: Disbursements remain healthy, with renewables continuing
to show improvement; credit costs to remain benign
Power financiers have a strong sanction pipeline, positioning them for healthy
loan growth in 2HFY25. However, sanction trends may be slightly weaker in
3QFY25 due to broad-based slower economic activity. Asset quality is expected
to further improve, supported by continued stressed asset resolutions
For PFC, we expect disbursements growth of ~110% YoY and ~6% QoQ, leading
to loan book growth of ~13% YoY/5% QoQ.
REC has reported disbursements growth of ~18% YoY/ 16% QoQ, which could
potentially result in loan book growth of ~15% YoY/5% QoQ.
January 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
Exhibit 1:
Quarterly performance
CMP
Name
AAVAS Financiers
Bajaj Finance
Can Fin Homes
Chola. Inv & Fin.
CreditAccess
Five-Star Business
Fusion Finance
Home First Fin.
IIFL Finance
L&T Finance
LIC Housing Fin
M & M Financial
Manappuram Finance
MAS Financial
Muthoot Finance
PFC
PNB Housing
Poonawalla Fincorp
REC
Repco Home Fin
NBFC
(INR) Rating
1677
6937
730
1185
891
793
178
1045
418
138
600
266
191
272
2216
448
908
314
505
432
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Dec-24
2,552
93,311
3,457
29,099
9,219
5,354
3,708
1,586
13,332
21,844
19,958
18,788
16,286
2,022
25,693
45,546
6,809
5,965
49,644
1,692
4,35,290
NII (INR m)
Operating profit (INR m)
Net profit (INR m)
Variance Variance
Variance Variance
Variance Variance
Dec -24
Dec -24
YoY (%) QoQ (%)
YoY (%) QoQ (%)
YoY (%) QoQ (%)
15.6
5.5
1,893
20.0
-2.9
1,428
22.4
-3.5
21.9
5.6
76,530
24.6
4.7
41,069
12.9
2.3
5.1
1.8
2,938
2.6
2.1
2,214
10.6
4.7
34.0
7.3
20,462
35.0
6.5
10,697
22.1
11.1
14.8
-1.2
6,598
9.6
-1.8
1,311
-62.9
-29.6
27.2
3.7
3,909
30.2
2.9
2,723
25.6
1.6
9.5
-7.0
2,537
-2.5
-10.6
-2,050
PL
Loss
18.0
1.2
1,302
18.7
3.3
961
21.9
4.2
-15.3
-0.5
8,209
-14.4
-3.8
2,013
-59.0
LP
11.9
0.3
16,100
20.3
1.3
5,909
-7.6
-15.2
-4.8
1.1
17,442
-7.4
0.1
12,826
10.3
-3.5
10.4
3.6
12,388
16.2
3.2
6,888
22.6
83.4
12.1
-0.4
10,265
9.7
-0.6
4,993
-13.2
-12.7
28.9
5.6
1,359
23.3
5.9
795
27.2
3.8
34.8
2.0
19,444
39.5
1.5
13,353
30.0
6.7
9.5
3.3
47,418
7.5
-11.0
39,623
17.3
-9.3
14.8
2.9
5,796
16.1
3.7
4,810
42.1
2.4
21.6
6.7
3,664
4.6
31.2
1,520
-42.7
LP
15.7
-0.1
50,079
20.1
2.3
41,160
25.9
2.8
3.5
2.2
1,386
1.2
1.4
1,091
9.7
-3.0
15.1
2.8
3,52,382
15.3
0.6
2,09,818
8.1
4.6
Exhibit 2:
Relative performance — three months (%)
102
99
96
93
90
Nifty Index
MOFSL Financials Index
Exhibit 3:
Relative performance — one year (%)
Nifty Index
126
117
108
99
90
MOFSL Financials Index
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
January 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
Exhibit 4:
EPS estimate changes for FY25/FY26/FY27
Company
AAVAS
BAF
CANF
CIFC
CREDAG
Five Star Business
FUSION
HomeFirst
IIFL Fin
LTFH
LICHF
MMFSL
MASFIN
Muthoot
MGFL
PNBHF
PFC
PFL
REC
REPCO
SHFL
SPANDANA
FY25
73.1
266.2
65.1
52.6
61.9
36.9
-36.7
42.7
16.4
11.2
93.1
19.6
17.4
127.9
25.7
72.5
50.5
1.9
60.5
70.4
223.3
-8.4
Old Estimates
FY26
90.2
342.6
72.6
70.2
102.5
43
46.2
52.6
50.7
13.9
93.4
24.8
22.2
151.6
27.9
89.3
55.4
14.6
69.3
70.3
264.7
69
FY27
112.7
439.7
83.2
92.1
128.7
51.2
65.8
65.1
64.4
18.5
102.1
31.1
27.2
169
35.2
109
62.2
23.3
80.1
78.5
321.6
101.5
FY25
72.5
264.5
65.2
51.6
59.1
36.7
-65.4
42.4
13.3
10.4
93.1
19.5
17.1
127.6
25.1
72.6
49.7
2.4
61.1
70.3
224.9
-93.2
New Estimates
FY26
89.6
342.9
71.2
68.4
101
41.5
30.7
52.4
46.7
13.6
96.1
25.1
21.4
152.4
26.8
89.4
55.9
14.2
69.3
69.9
264.9
48.4
FY27
109.6
440
82.6
90
127.3
47.9
51.7
63.3
58.4
18.5
103.6
31.6
26.3
171
33.3
108.5
63.3
22.6
80.6
77.9
320.3
81.5
FY25
-0.9
-0.6
0.1
-1.9
-4.6
-0.6
-
-0.6
-19.2
-7.2
-0.1
-0.5
-1.8
-0.2
-2.1
0.2
-1.6
28.3
1.1
-0.1
0.7
-
Change (%)
FY26
-0.7
0.1
-2
-2.6
-1.4
-3.5
-33.6
-0.4
-7.9
-2.2
2.8
1.3
-3.5
0.5
-4
0.2
0.8
-2.8
0
-0.5
0.1
-29.8
FY27
-2.7
0.1
-0.8
-2.2
-1.2
-6.3
-21.5
-2.7
-9.3
-0.1
1.4
1.7
-3.5
1.2
-5.5
-0.5
1.8
-2.8
0.6
-0.8
-0.4
-19.7
January 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
The tables below provide a snapshot of actual and estimated numbers for companies under the MOFSL coverage
universe. Highlighted columns indicate the quarter/financial year under review.
CMP: INR1,677| TP: INR1,800 (7%)
AUM/disbursements are likely to grow ~20%/19% YoY.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -0.7|-2.7
Asset quality is expected to improve and credit costs are
likely to remain benign.
We expect NIM to expand ~15bp QoQ. Upfront assignment
Commentaries on loan growth, margin trajectory, and tech
income is estimated at ~INR500m.
transformation are the key monitorables.
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Profits
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Profit after tax
YoY Growth (%)
Aavas Financiers
Neutral
1Q
4,128
1,866
2,262
26
540
2,802
28
1,339
30
1,464
27
57
1,407
310
1,097
23
FY24
2Q
4,259
2,036
2,223
18
716
2,938
16
1,308
14
1,631
17
65
1,565
348
1,217
14
3Q
4,373
2,166
2,208
6
719
2,926
12
1,349
12
1,577
11
80
1,497
331
1,166
9
4Q
4,586
2,216
2,371
7
882
3,252
14
1,434
19
1,818
10
43
1,775
349
1,426
13
1Q
4,797
2,352
2,446
8
628
3,074
10
1,379
3
1,695
16
86
1,609
348
1,261
15
FY25E
2Q
4,906
2,489
2,418
9
898
3,316
13
1,368
5
1,948
19
48
1,900
421
1,479
22
3Q
5,107
2,556
2,552
16
848
3,399
16
1,507
12
1,893
20
58
1,835
407
1,428
22
4Q
5,432
2,769
2,664
12
952
3,616
11
1,626
13
1,989
9
35
1,954
386
1,568
10
FY24
17,347
8,284
9,063
14
2,856
11,919
17
5,430
19
6,489
15.6
245
6,244
1,338
4,907
14.1
FY25E
20,243
10,165
10,078
11
3,327
13,405
12
5,879
8
7,526
16.0
227
7,299
1,563
5,735
CMP INR6,937| TP: INR7,660 (+10%)
BAF is likely to report AUM growth of 28% YoY/ 7% QoQ.
Margin is likely to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~9.7%.
Bajaj Finance
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 0.1|0.1
Credit costs are expected to increase ~10bp QoQ to ~2.2%.
Commentaries on NIM trajectory and credit costs are the key
monitorables.
Neutral
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Operating Income
Net Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions and Cont.
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
1,08,211
41,025
67,186
27.4
16,795
83,980
33.3
28,544
55,437
37.0
9,953
45,512
11,143
34,369
36.8
FY24
FY25E
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1,17,340 1,25,233 1,32,301 1,40,492 1,49,870 1,58,862 1,68,862
45,371
48,680
52,171
56,839
61,493
65,552
69,995
71,970
76,553
80,130
83,653
88,377
93,311
98,867
30.0
29.3
28.1
24.5
22.8
21.9
23.4
16,477
16,436
17,019
20,531
21,084
21,610
22,648
88,447
92,989
97,149 1,04,185 1,09,461 1,14,921 1,21,515
26.3
25.1
25.0
24.1
23.8
23.6
25.1
30,100
31,567
33,028
34,709
36,390
38,391
40,687
58,347
61,422
64,121
69,475
73,071
76,530
80,829
30.0
26.6
25.3
25.3
25.2
24.6
26.1
10,771
12,484
13,100
16,847
19,091
21,255
22,475
47,578
48,955
51,051
52,654
54,015
55,275
58,353
12,070
12,566
12,806
13,534
13,877
14,206
14,775
35,508
36,390
38,245
39,120
40,137
41,069
43,578
27.7
22.4
21.1
13.8
13.0
12.9
13.9
FY24
4,83,066
1,87,247
2,95,819
28.7
66,759
3,62,578
25.7
1,23,252
2,39,326
27.9
46,307
1,93,096
48,584
1,44,512
25.5
FY25E
6,18,086
2,53,878
3,64,208
23.1
85,874
4,50,082
24.1
1,50,177
2,99,905
25.3
79,668
2,20,297
56,392
1,63,905
13.4
January 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR730 | TP: INR800 (+10%)
Estimate loan book to grow ~9% YoY.
Can Fin Homes
Spreads are expected to remain stable QoQ at ~3.2%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -2.0|-0.8
Margin is expected to remain stable QoQ at 3.7%.
Commentaries on loan growth and outlook on NIM in a
declining rate environment are the key monitorables.
FY25E
2Q
9,553
6,155
3,398
7.3
74
3,472
7.6
594
13.3
2,878
6.5
137
2,741
626
2,115
33.8
Neutral
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Profits
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Profit after tax
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
8,181
5,330
2,851
13.9
60
2,911
13.9
435
7.4
2,476
15.2
137
2,339
504
1,835
13.1
FY24
2Q
8,652
5,484
3,168
26.1
58
3,226
25.7
524
29.5
2,702
25.0
722
1,980
399
1,581
11.5
3Q
8,948
5,660
3,288
30.6
71
3,359
30.8
494
12.7
2,865
34.6
308
2,557
556
2,001
32.1
4Q
9,117
5,839
3,278
25.5
159
3,437
25.7
720
39.3
2,717
22.5
18
2,700
609
2,090
26.1
1Q
9,242
6,027
3,214
12.7
70
3,284
12.8
488
12.3
2,796
12.9
245
2,551
555
1,996
8.8
3Q
9,772
6,315
3,457
5.1
73
3,530
5.1
592
19.8
2,938
2.6
100
2,838
624
2,214
10.6
4Q
9,927
6,379
3,548
8.2
151
3,699
7.6
639
-11.2
3,059
12.6
60
2,999
643
2,355
12.7
FY24
34,899
22,314
12,585
24.0
348
12,933
24.1
2,173
23.1
10,760
24.3
1,185
9,575
2,068
7,507
20.8
FY25E
38,493
24,876
13,617
8.2
368
13,985
8.1
2,313
6.5
11,672
8.5
543
11,129
2,448
8,681
15.6
CMP INR1,185 | | TP: INR1,470 (+24%)
Estimate business AUM to grow ~31% YoY.
Cholamandalam Inv. & Fin.
Margin is likely to expand ~5bp QoQ to 6.85%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -2.6|-2.2
Credit costs are expected to improve ~10bp QoQ to~1.5%.
Guidance on margins, loan growth, and asset quality of new
businesses are expected to be closely monitored.
Buy
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
38,492
20,071
18,421
24.3
2,845
21,265
29.7
7,867
13,399
26.4
3,723
9,675
2,415
7,260
28.3
FY24
2Q
3Q
42,205 46,099
22,052 24,390
20,153 21,709
35.4
35.8
3,514
4,088
23,667 25,797
39.4
40.8
9,461 10,640
14,206 15,157
37.1
40.4
3,998
3,588
10,208 11,569
2,583
2,807
7,625
8,762
35.3
28.0
4Q
49,341
25,793
23,548
33.4
5,580
29,127
41.4
12,850
16,278
27.9
1,908
14,369
3,788
10,581
24.1
1Q
53,695
27,957
25,738
39.7
4,595
30,333
42.6
11,834
18,499
38.1
5,814
12,685
3,263
9,422
29.8
FY25E
2Q
3Q
57,680 61,544
30,551 32,445
27,128 29,099
34.6
34.0
5,248
5,727
32,376 34,826
36.8
35.0
13,155 14,364
19,221 20,462
35.3
35.0
6,235
6,200
12,986 14,262
3,355
3,566
9,631 10,697
26.3
22.1
4Q
65,535
33,677
31,859
35.3
6,373
38,232
31.3
15,964
22,268
36.8
3,855
18,413
4,811
13,601
28.5
FY24
1,76,137
92,306
83,831
32.4
16,026
99,857
38.1
40,818
59,039
32.7
13,218
45,821
11,593
34,228
28.4
FY25
2,38,454
1,24,630
1,13,824
35.8
21,943
1,35,767
36.0
55,317
80,450
36.3
22,104
58,345
14,995
43,351
26.7
January 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR891 | | TP: INR1,085 (+22%)
Estimate GLP growth of ~8% YoY.
Margin is likely to expand ~10bp QoQ to 14.6%.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
CreditAccess Grameen
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -1.4|-1.2
Credit costs are projected to rise ~115bp QoQ to ~7.9%.
Guidance on credit costs and GLP growth to be monitored.
Buy
1Q
11,052
3,849
7,203
57.8
656
7,858
63.8
2,420
5,438
88
764
4,674
1,189
3,485
151.3
FY24
2Q
3Q
11,874 12,444
4,239
4,415
7,635
8,029
53.3
48.5
602
509
8,237
8,537
52.1
43.6
2,611
2,520
5,626
6,018
68
59
959
1,262
4,668
4,756
1,197
1,222
3,470
3,533
96.6
63.7
4Q
13,632
4,822
8,810
42.3
959
9,770
35.6
2,942
6,828
36
1,533
5,295
1,324
3,971
33.9
1Q
14,372
5,103
9,268
28.7
754
10,023
27.5
2,929
7,093
30
1,746
5,347
1,371
3,977
14.1
FY25
2Q
3Q
14,177 13,983
4,846
4,764
9,331
9,219
22.2
14.8
362
407
9,693
9,626
17.7
12.8
2,972
3,028
6,721
6,598
19
10
4,202
4,832
2,520
1,766
659
456
1,861
1,311
-46.4
-62.9
4Q
14,758
5,104
9,654
9.6
690
10,344
5.9
3,327
7,018
3
3,957
3,061
790
2,271
-42.8
FY24
49,001
17,324
31,677
49.8
2,725
34,402
47.1
10,493
23,910
59
4,518
19,392
4,933
14,459
75.0
FY25E
57,290
19,817
37,473
18.3
2,214
39,686
15.4
12,253
27,434
15
14,736
12,698
3,276
9,422
-34.8
CMP INR793 | | TP: INR970 (+22%)
Estimate AUM growth of ~25% YoY.
Five Star Business Finance
Margin is likely to remain stable QoQ at 19.4%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -3.5|-6.3
Credit costs are projected to rise ~10bp QoQ to ~0.8%.
Outlook on asset quality, guidance on loan growth, and
credit costs are expected to be closely monitored.
Buy
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
4,637
962
3,676
35.9
198
3,874
41.3
1,263
2,611
40.5
152
2,459
622
1,837
32
FY24
2Q
5,041
1,059
3,982
34.3
183
4,165
38.4
1,389
2,775
37.9
106
2,670
676
1,994
38
3Q
5,495
1,287
4,208
31.6
205
4,413
35.5
1,412
3,001
45.5
102
2,899
731
2,168
44
4Q
5,992
1,377
4,615
33.4
199
4,814
33.0
1,488
3,326
43.6
194
3,132
771
2,361
40
1Q
6,411
1,582
4,829
31.4
283
5,112
32.0
1,565
3,547
35.9
185
3,362
846
2,516
37
FY25E
2Q
6,793
1,631
5,161
29.6
266
5,427
30.3
1,627
3,800
36.9
218
3,582
903
2,679
34
3Q
7,051
1,697
5,354
27.2
248
5,602
26.9
1,694
3,909
30.2
268
3,641
917
2,723
26
4Q
7,326
1,774
5,551
20.3
241
5,792
20.3
1,807
3,985
19.8
271
3,714
908
2,806
19
FY24
21,166
4,685
16,481
33.7
785
17,266
36.7
5,553
11,713
42.0
554
11,160
2,800
8,359
38.5
FY25E
27,580
6,684
20,896
26.8
1,038
21,933
27.0
6,692
15,241
30.1
942
14,299
3,575
10,724
28.3
January 2025
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR178 | | TP: INR165 (-8%)
Estimate AUM to remain flat YoY.
Fusion Microfinance
Margin is likely to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~15%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -33.6|-21.5
Annualized credit costs are projected at ~21% in 3QFY25.
Guidance on credit costs, margins, and disbursement
trajectory are expected to be closely monitored.
Neutral
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
4,790
1,835
2,955
58.7
738
3,693
70.0
1,339
2,354
95.8
759
1,595
390
1,205
60
FY24
2Q
4,968
1,910
3,058
26.1
745
3,803
28.9
1,385
2,418
29.1
762
1,656
399
1,257
32
3Q
5,400
2,015
3,386
34.2
732
4,118
38.0
1,515
2,603
41.6
938
1,665
401
1,265
23
4Q
5,761
2,149
3,612
30.6
991
4,603
32.8
1,696
2,907
31.5
1,190
1,717
390
1,327
16
1Q
6,213
2,234
3,979
34.6
854
4,833
30.9
1,855
2,978
26.5
3,485
-507
-151
-356
-130
FY25
2Q
6,261
2,274
3,987
30.4
776
4,764
25.3
1,925
2,838
17.4
6,941
-4,102
-1,052
-3,050
-343
3Q
5,854
2,146
3,708
9.5
808
4,516
9.7
1,979
2,537
-2.5
5,275
-2,738
-687
-2,050
-262
4Q
4,704
1,812
2,892
-19.9
949
3,840
-16.6
2,029
1,811
-37.7
3,258
-1,447
-326
-1,121
-184
FY24
20,919
7,908
13,011
35.9
3,205
16,216
40.1
5,935
10,281
44.3
3,649
6,633
1,580
5,053
31
FY25E
23,032
8,466
14,565
11.9
3,387
17,952
10.7
7,788
10,165
-1.1
18,958
-8,794
-2,216
-6,578
-230.2
CMP INR1,045| TP: INR1,280 (+22%)
Estimate a robust AUM growth of ~33% YoY/7% QoQ.
Margin is projected to contract ~30bp QoQ in 3QFY25.
Home First Finance Company
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -0.4|-2.7
Cost/income ratio is expected to remain largely stable at
~37%.
Outlook on margins and credit costs are key monitorables.
Buy
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Net Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions and Cont.
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
2,313
1,068
1,246
32.6
285
1,530
40.9
553
977
39.8
77
900
209
691
34.9
FY24
2Q
2,491
1,170
1,321
30.1
289
1,610
36.1
565
1,044
40.9
80
964
221
743
36.9
3Q
2,646
1,302
1,344
21.4
364
1,708
35.7
611
1,097
34.5
70
1,027
239
788
34.5
4Q
2,827
1,459
1,368
22.4
351
1,719
24.2
584
1,135
24.8
27
1,107
273
835
30.4
1Q
3,032
1,568
1,464
17.5
382
1,846
20.6
655
1,191
21.9
56
1,135
258
878
27.0
FY25E
2Q
3,322
1,756
1,566
18.6
421
1,987
23.4
726
1,261
20.7
57
1,204
281
922
24.1
3Q
3,557
1,972
1,586
18.0
470
2,056
20.4
753
1,302
18.7
55
1,247
287
961
21.9
4Q
3,689
2,017
1,673
22.3
465
2,137
24.4
783
1,354
19.3
68
1,286
280
1,006
20.5
FY24
10,277
4,999
5,278
26.3
1,289
6,567
33.7
2,313
4,254
34.3
254
4,000
942
3,057
33.9
FY25E
13,600
7,311
6,288
19.1
1,737
8,025
22.2
2,917
5,108
20.1
236
4,873
1,106
3,767
23.2
January 2025
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR418 | TP: INR510 (+22%)
Estimate AUM to decline ~7% YoY to INR717b.
IIFL Finance
Credit costs are likely to increase ~45bp QoQ to ~4.1%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -7.9|-9.3
Cost ratios are expected to increase ~210bp QoQ to ~48%.
Outlook on the gold loan business, loan growth, and margins is
the key monitorable.
FY25E
2Q
23,181
9,788
13,394
-6.0
2,467
15,861
-2
7,329
8,532
-8.9
4,063
4,468
-5,865
-466
-931
646
-1,577
-133
Buy
IIFL Finance (Consolidated): Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
FY24
1Q
2Q
3Q
Interest Income
21,989
23,576
25,630
Interest Expenses
8,878
9,321
9,885
Net Interest Income
13,111
14,255
15,745
YoY Growth (%)
48.9
44.7
44.7
Other Income
1,306
1,878
1,120
Total Income
14,417
16,134
16,865
YoY Growth (%)
20
26
26
Operating Expenses
6,332
6,772
7,272
Operating Profit
8,085
9,361
9,593
YoY Growth (%)
18.4
29.0
24.9
Provisions & Loan Losses
1,901
2,526
2,430
Profit before Tax
6,184
6,835
7,163
Exceptional items
0
Tax Provisions
1,455
1,580
1,711
PAT (Pre NCI)
4,729
5,255
5,452
NCI
475
513
548
PAT (Post NCI)
4,254
4,743
4,904
YoY Growth (%)
29
25
30
4Q
27,200
10,744
16,456
38.9
-873
15,584
10
7,691
7,893
-1.6
2,356
5,537
1,231
4,306
572
3,734
-10
1Q
24,721
10,340
14,381
9.7
-43
14,338
-1
7,461
6,877
-14.9
2,516
4,362
980
3,382
501
2,881
-32
3Q
23,413
10,081
13,332
-15.3
2,352
15,683
-7
7,679
8,209
-14.4
4,673
3,537
813
2,723
711
2,013
-59
4Q
24,855
11,063
13,792
-16.2
2,975
16,766
8
7,793
8,769
11.1
4,408
4,360
1,213
3,147
842
2,304
-38
FY24
98,386
38,829
59,557
43.6
3,342
62,899
20.4
28,067
34,832
16.9
9,113
25,719
5,977
19,742
2,107
17,635
18
FY25E
96,170
41,272
54,898
-7.8
7,750
62,648
-0.4
30,261
32,387
-7.0
15,660
10,862
2,541
8,321
2,700
5,621
-68
CMP INR138| TP: INR180 (+30%)
Expect consolidated loan book growth of 4% QoQ.
Anticipate credit costs to expand to ~3.4% (annualized) in
3QFY25 (vs. ~2.9% in 2QFY25).
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
Change YoY (%)
Other Operating Income
Net Operating Income
Change YoY (%)
Other income
Total Income
Change YoY (%)
Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
Operating Profits
Change YoY (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Profit after tax
Change YoY (%)
L&T Finance
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|25: -2.2|-0.1
NIM is expected to contract ~25bp QoQ to ~10.9%.
Buy
Outlook on the MFI business is the key monitorable.
1Q
31,165
13,638
17,527
14.3
1,068
18,596
11.7
1,535
20,130
11.1
7,782
18.3
12,348
6.9
5,212
7,136
1,831
5,309
103
FY24
2Q
3Q
31,685 33,063
13,249 13,534
18,436 19,529
11.9
7.2
453
2,277
18,889 21,805
7.5
12.9
2,682
473
21,572 22,278
15.0
11.9
8,598
8,896
25.2
19.9
12,974 13,382
9.1
7.2
5,000
5,142
7,974
8,240
2,032
1,847
5,951
6,402
47
41
4Q
33,226
13,351
19,875
12.6
3,492
23,367
31.9
56
23,422
18.7
9,803
24.6
13,619
7.3
6,679
6,940
1,410
5,539
11
1Q
34,526
13,514
21,012
19.9
3,318
24,330
30.8
2
24,332
20.9
9,656
24.1
14,676
18.9
5,453
9,223
2,370
6,855
29
FY25E
2Q
3Q
36,544 37,640
14,763 15,796
21,781 21,844
18.1
11.9
3,649
4,161
25,431 26,005
34.6
19.3
47
237
25,477 26,241
18.1
17.8
9,578 10,141
11.4
14.0
15,899 16,100
22.5
20.3
6,504
8,148
9,396
7,952
2,429
2,044
6,967
5,909
17
-8
FY24
FY25E
4Q
39,730 1,29,139 1,48,441
16,649
53,772
60,723
23,080
75,367
87,718
16.1
11.4
16.4
3,884
6,667
15,012
26,964
82,034 1,02,730
15.4
15.1
25.2
284
4,745
569
27,248
86,779 1,03,299
16.3
13.4
19.0
11,335
35,079
40,710
15.6
22.1
16.1
15,914
51,701
62,589
16.8
6.3
21.1
8,003
21,410
28,108
7,911
30,290
34,481
1,777
7,119
8,620
6,133
23,171
25,861
11
43
12
January 2025
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
LIC Housing Finance
CMP INR600 | TP: INR760 (+27%)
Expect loan growth of ~7% YoY with a fairly stable mix.
Estimate annualized credit costs of ~20bp in 3QFY25 vs.
~10bp in 2QFY25.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 2.8|1.4
Yields are expected to remain stable on a sequential basis,
leading to ~5bp contraction in NIMs.
Commentaries on mortgage demand and guidance on
margins and loan growth are the key monitorables.
Buy
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
67,037
44,942
22,094
37.2
429
22,523
36.4
2,425
20,098
38.8
3,608
16,490
3,253
13,237
43
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Fees and other income
Net Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions and Cont.
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
FY24
2Q
3Q
67,066 67,437
46,000 46,465
21,066 20,972
81.2
30.6
521
488
21,587 21,460
79.1
30.6
2,595
2,615
18,993 18,845
101.1
39.0
4,192
4,358
14,801 14,487
2,920
2,858
11,881 11,629
290
142
4Q
68,875
46,499
22,376
12.4
493
22,869
12.8
3,829
19,041
8.7
4,279
14,762
3,854
10,908
-8
1Q
67,391
47,501
19,891
-10.0
446
20,337
-9.7
2,621
17,715
-11.9
1,431
16,285
3,282
13,002
-2
FY25E
2Q
3Q
68,534 69,974
48,796 50,016
19,739 19,958
-6.3
-4.8
784
683
20,522 20,641
-4.9
-3.8
3,105
3,198
17,417 17,442
-8.3
-7.4
773
1,469
16,644 15,973
3,355
3,147
13,289 12,826
12
10
4Q
72,070
51,476
20,594
-8.0
432
21,025
-8.1
3,679
17,346
-8.9
2,448
14,898
2,785
12,113
11
FY24
2,70,416
1,83,907
86,509
36.7
1,931
88,440
36.3
11,463
76,976
40.0
16,437
60,539
12,885
47,654
65
FY25E
2,77,969
1,97,788
80,181
-7.3
2,344
82,525
-6.7
12,604
69,921
-9.2
6,122
63,799
12,568
51,231
8
CMP INR266| TP: INR335 (+26%)
Estimate disbursements of ~INR165b, leading to AUM of
~INR1.11t (up 19% YoY/ ~3% QoQ).
We expect margins to remain stable QoQ.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
30,349
14,505
15,844
5.3
905
16,750
6.9
6,750
10,000
5.7
5,264
4,735
1,209
3,527
58.2
Mahindra Financial Services
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 1.3|1.7
Estimate credit costs of ~1.1% in 3QFY25 (vs. ~2.6% QoQ).
Commentaries on margins, credit costs, and loan growth are
the key monitorables.
Buy
Interest income
Interest Expenses
NII
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Net Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
FY24
2Q
31,535
15,665
15,870
9.6
870
16,740
8.7
7,312
9,428
9.2
6,266
3,163
811
2,352
-47.5
3Q
33,733
16,750
16,983
9.4
1,172
18,155
10.1
7,530
10,625
6.4
3,284
7,341
1,813
5,528
-12.1
4Q
35,471
17,351
18,121
13.2
1,590
19,710
14.4
7,980
11,730
24.2
3,415
8,315
2,126
6,190
-9.5
1Q
36,122
18,286
17,836
12.6
1,480
19,316
15.3
7,970
11,345
13.5
4,482
6,864
1,734
5,130
45.5
FY25E
2Q
3Q
37,448
39,059
19,343
20,271
18,106
18,788
14.1
10.6
1,802
2,034
19,908
20,822
18.9
14.7
7,947
8,433
11,961
12,388
26.9
16.6
7,035
3,143
4,927
9,245
1,232
2,357
3,695
6,888
57.1
24.6
4Q
40,688
20,584
20,104
10.9
2,370
22,474
14.0
8,609
13,865
18.2
2,539
11,327
2,929
8,398
35.7
FY24
1,31,088
64,269
66,818
9.4
4,537
71,355
10.1
29,572
41,783
11.4
18,228
23,555
5,959
17,596
-11.3
FY25E
1,53,317
78,483
74,834
12.0
7,686
82,520
15.6
32,960
49,560
18.6
17,198
32,362
8,252
24,110
37.0
January 2025
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR191 | TP: INR205 (+7%)
Expect gold AUM/consolidated AUM to remain largely flat
on a sequential basis.
Factored in a margin decline of ~10bp QoQ and spreads to
decline ~35bp in the consolidated loan book.
MGFL - Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
FY24
Y/E March
1Q
2Q
3Q
Interest Income
19,363
20,438
22,011
Interest Expenses
6,484
6,894
7,487
Net Interest Income
12,879
13,543
14,524
YoY Growth (%)
34.6
25.5
33.0
Other income
1,209
1,303
1,256
Net Income
14,088
14,846
15,780
Operating Expenses
6,068
6,182
6,419
Operating Profits
8,020
8,664
9,361
YoY Growth (%)
57.5
36.8
58.1
Provisions
1,212
1,197
1,496
PBT
6,808
7,467
7,864
Tax Provisions
1,828
1,861
2,111
PAT
4,980
5,607
5,753
YoY Growth (%)
77
37
46
Manappuram Finance
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -4|-5.5
Expect credit costs to increase ~80bp QoQ to ~3.1%.
Buy
Commentaries on gold loan growth and asset quality in the
MFI and PL segments are the key monitorables.
4Q
22,734
7,792
14,943
32.8
888
15,831
6,497
9,333
52.0
1,878
7,455
1,820
5,635
36
1Q
23,861
8,483
15,378
19.4
1,259
16,636
6,823
9,814
22.4
2,286
7,528
1,963
5,565
12
FY25E
2Q
25,411
9,057
16,354
20.8
961
17,314
6,984
10,331
19.2
2,604
7,727
2,006
5,721
2
3Q
25,207
8,921
16,286
12.1
1,168
17,454
7,190
10,265
9.7
3,517
6,748
1,754
4,993
-13
4Q
24,820
8,628
16,192
8.4
1,447
17,639
7,314
10,325
10.6
3,485
6,840
1,834
5,006
-11
FY24
84,546
28,657
55,889
31.4
4,655
60,544
25,165
35,379
50.7
5,783
29,595
7,621
21,974
46
FY25E
99,299
35,089
64,210
14.9
4,834
69,044
28,309
40,734
15.1
11,892
28,842
7,557
21,286
-3
CMP INR272 | TP: INR340 (+25%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -3.5|-3.5
Standalone AUM is likely to grow ~4% QoQ/~19% YoY.
Margin is expected to expand ~5bp QoQ to ~7.2%.
Commentary on branch expansions and increase in the direct
We expect credit costs to increase ~10bp to ~1.1%.
business are the key monitorables.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Interest Income
Gain on assignments
Other operating Income
Interest expenses
Total income
Growth Y-o-Y (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Growth Y-o-Y (%)
Provisions
Profit before tax
Growth Y-o-Y (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Growth Y-o-Y (%)
MAS Financial
Buy
1Q
2,801
2,362
242
196
1,428
1,373
30
427
946
34
188
758
22
186
573
23
FY24
2Q
2,982
2,490
272
219
1,461
1,520
28
484
1,036
34
236
800
22
200
600
22
3Q
3,206
2,651
319
236
1,638
1,569
27
467
1,102
35
257
845
25
221
624
24
4Q
3,295
2,757
336
202
1,615
1,680
33
555
1,125
27
214
911
29
230
681
23
1Q
3,465
2,952
304
210
1,714
1,751
27
567
1,183
25
239
944
25
240
704
23
FY25E
2Q
3,670
3,078
375
217
1,754
1,916
26
632
1,284
24
263
1,021
28
255
766
28
3Q
3,952
3,278
412
261
1,929
2,022
29
663
1,359
23
300
1,059
25
265
795
27
4Q
4,199
3,398
465
335
2,069
2,129
27
688
1,441
28
323
1,118
23
284
834
23
FY24
12,246
10,223
1,170
853
6,142
6,104
29
1,894
4,210
33
896
3,314
25
837
2,478
23
FY25E
15,285
12,707
1,556
1,023
7,467
7,818
28
2,550
5,268
25
1,126
4,142
25
1,044
3,098
25
January 2025
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR 2,216| TP: INR2,060 (-7%)
Estimate gold AUM growth of ~27% QoQ.
Muthoot Finance
Margin is likely to contract 30bp to ~11.5%.
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 0.5|1.2
We expect credit costs of ~60bp in 3QFY25 as compared to
~95bp in 2QFY25.
Commentaries on gold loan growth and margin guidance are
the key monitorables.
Neutral
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Other operating income
Total Operating income
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Interest Expenses
Net Income
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
29,577
410
29,987
19.8
276
30,263
20.6
10,638
19,625
5,620
14,006
36.8
860
13,145
3,394
9,751
21.6
FY24
2Q
3Q
30,147 31,176
450
501
30,597 31,677
22.5
19.1
139
80
30,736 31,757
22.8
19.1
11,563 12,119
19,173 19,638
5,751
5,696
13,422 13,942
16.9
10.4
120
137
13,302 13,805
3,392
3,532
9,910 10,273
14.3
13.9
4Q
33,575
514
34,089
19.5
95
34,184
19.4
12,228
21,956
6,861
15,095
16.9
860
14,236
3,673
10,563
17.0
1Q
36,560
478
37,038
23.5
63
37,101
22.6
13,511
23,590
6,437
17,153
22.5
2,236
14,917
4,130
10,787
10.6
FY25E
2Q
3Q
40,685 42,190
489
551
41,174 42,741
34.6
34.9
88
72
41,262 42,813
34.2
34.8
15,505 16,497
25,758 26,316
6,608
6,872
19,150 19,444
42.7
39.5
2,070
1,400
17,080 18,044
4,568
4,691
12,511 13,353
26.3
30.0
FY24
FY25E
4Q
43,409 1,24,476 1,62,844
600
1,874
2,118
44,009 1,26,350 1,64,962
29.1
20.2
30.6
127
590
350
44,136 1,26,940 1,65,312
29.1
20.4
30.2
17,192
46,548
62,705
26,944
80,393 1,02,608
8,027
23,927
27,944
18,917
56,466
74,663
25.3
19.5
32.2
-250
1,978
5,456
19,167
54,488
69,208
4,604
13,991
17,994
14,563
40,497
51,214
37.9
16.6
26.5
CMP INR908 | TP: INR1,160 (28%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27|: 0.2|-0.5
Loan growth is expected to be ~17% YoY .
NIM is expected to remain largely stable QoQ.
Expect provision write-backs from recoveries in both Retail
Commentaries on the asset quality of the retail loan book,
and Corporate written-off pools.
NIM, and credit costs are the key monitorables.
Quarterly performance
1Q
16,669
10,475
6,194
68.1
408
6,602
37.3
1,530
26.0
5,072
41.1
606
4,467
994
3,473
47.8
PNB Housing Finance
Buy
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Profits
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Profit after tax
YoY Growth (%)
FY24
2Q
17,029
10,573
6,456
1.9
765
7,221
0.2
1,702
24.4
5,519
-5.4
448
5,071
1,241
3,830
45.8
3Q
16,795
10,866
5,929
-17.3
765
6,694
-16.3
1,700
34.7
4,994
-25.9
591
4,403
1,019
3,384
25.8
4Q
16,929
10,697
6,232
7.2
1,211
7,443
18.2
1,778
21.1
5,665
17.3
66
5,598
1,206
4,393
57.3
1Q
17,391
10,969
6,421
3.7
930
7,352
11.3
1,929
26.1
5,422
6.9
-120
5,542
1,214
4,328
24.6
FY25E
2Q
3Q
17,803
18,497
11,185
11,688
6,618
6,809
2.5
14.8
994
1,058
7,612
7,867
5.4
17.5
2,020
2,071
18.7
21.8
5,591
5,796
1.3
16.1
-456
-410
6,047
6,206
1,351
1,396
4,697
4,810
22.6
42.1
4Q
19,390
12,570
6,819
9.4
1,444
8,264
11.0
2,196
23.5
6,067
7.1
-420
6,488
1,455
5,033
14.6
FY24
67,422
42,611
24,811
7.8
3,149
27,960
6.3
6,710
26.3
21,250
1.2
1,711
19,539
4,459
15,080
44.2
FY25E
73,081
46,413
26,668
7.5
4,426
31,094
11.2
8,217
22.5
22,877
7.7
-1,406
24,283
5,415
18,868
25.1
January 2025
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR448 | TP: INR590 (+32%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 0.8|1.8
Expect AUM/Disbursement growth of ~13%/110% YoY.
Expect margin to contract ~5bp to ~3.5%.
Expect credit costs to remain benign, aided by stressed asset
Commentaries on growth in loan book, margins, and asset
resolutions.
quality/credit costs are the key monitorables.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Particulars
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Gr %
Other Income
Net Operational Income
YoY Gr %
Exchange gain/(loss)
Total Net Income
YoY Gr %
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Gr %
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate %
PAT
YoY Gr %
Power Finance Corporation
Buy
FY24
1Q
1,01,241
66,207
35,034
1.0
-2,111
32,923
-8.9
4,827
37,750
32.6
1,018
36,732
35.5
22
36,710
6,641
18.1
30,069
42.5
2Q
1,06,921
69,631
37,289
-3.1
11,904
49,193
7.6
-1,188
48,005
22.5
1,143
46,863
22.6
-989
47,852
9,377
19.6
38,474
28.3
3Q
1,13,313
71,735
41,578
16.4
5,875
47,452
20.6
-2,231
45,221
23.2
1,100
44,121
24.1
2,626
41,495
7,723
18.6
33,772
12.4
4Q
1,14,937
72,564
42,373
21.9
7,165
49,538
14.3
723
50,261
24.3
3,431
46,830
23.7
-3,370
50,200
8,845
17.6
41,355
18.4
1Q
1,18,270
74,990
43,280
23.5
3,160
46,440
41.1
589
47,029
24.6
1,016
46,013
25.3
620
45,393
8,214
18.1
37,179
23.6
FY25E
2Q
1,19,090
75,007
44,083
18.2
14,655
58,738
19.4
-3,100
55,639
15.9
2,355
53,284
13.7
-1,241
54,525
10,821
19.8
43,704
13.6
3Q
1,23,853
78,307
45,546
9.5
5,301
50,847
7.2
-2,000
48,847
8.0
1,430
47,418
7.5
-1,500
48,918
9,294
19.0
39,623
17.3
4Q
1,30,457
82,716
47,741
12.7
4,827
52,568
6.1
1,011
53,579
6.6
2,569
51,011
8.9
-2,017
53,027
9,420
17.8
43,608
5.4
FY24
4,36,411
2,80,138
1,56,274
8.8
22,832
1,79,106
8.9
2,131
1,81,237
25.2
6,691
1,74,545
25.8
-1,712
1,76,257
32,587
18.5
1,43,670
23.5
(INR m)
FY25E
4,91,671
3,11,020
1,80,651
15.6
27,943
2,08,594
16.5
-3,500
2,05,094
13.2
7,369
1,97,725
13.3
-4,137
2,01,862
37,748
18.7
1,64,114
14.3
CMP INR314 | TP: INR390 (+24%)
Expect AUM/Disbursement growth of ~38%/5% YoY.
Expect cost ratios to decline to ~46.5% in 3QFY25 (PQ:
~56.7% and PY: ~36.3%).
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Exceptional items
Tax Provisions
PAT (excl. exceptional)
PAT (incl. exceptional)
YoY Growth (%)
Poonawalla Fincorp
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -2.8|-2.8
Expect margin to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~9.1%.
Commentaries on growth in personal loans, margin, and
asset quality/credit costs are the key monitorables.
Buy
1Q
6,560
2,348
4,212
77.8
563
4,775
70.3
1,834
2,941
185.0
266
2,676
674
2,002
2,002
86.0
FY24
2Q
6,901
2,155
4,746
73.3
539
5,285
57.1
1,929
3,356
167.0
281
3,075
6,560
775
2,300
8,861
76.7
3Q
7,144
2,237
4,907
62.9
594
5,501
52.8
1,998
3,502
124.8
-65
3,568
916
2,651
2,651
76.3
4Q
8,436
2,811
5,625
48.1
782
6,407
57.0
2,313
4,094
103.1
239
3,855
538
3,317
3,317
83.6
1Q
8,962
3,201
5,761
36.8
997
6,758
35.1
2,436
4,321
46.9
425
3,897
980
2,916
2,916
45.7
FY25E
2Q
9,107
3,516
5,592
17.8
858
6,449
22.0
3,657
2,792
-16.8
9,096
-6,305
0
-1,594
-4,710
-4,710
-
3Q
9,745
3,780
5,965
21.6
881
6,846
24.5
3,182
3,664
4.6
1,637
2,027
507
1,520
1,520
-42.7
4Q
10,737
4,223
6,514
15.8
818
7,332
14.4
3,475
3,856
-5.8
1,033
2,824
669
2,155
2,155
-35.0
FY24
29,061
9,503
19,558
58.9
2,478
22,036
54.7
8,074
13,962
128.8
720
13,242
6,560
2,907
10,335
16,896
73.9
FY25E
38,551
14,719
23,832
21.9
3,553
27,384
24.3
12,751
14,633
4.8
12,191
2,442
0
562
1,881
1,881
-81.8
January 2025
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR505 | TP: INR630 (25%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -|0.6
Disbursements/AUM expected to grow ~16%/18% YoY.
Margin are likely to contract ~15bp QoQ to ~3.5%.
Expect credit costs to remain benign, aided by stress assets
Commentaries around margins and guidance on
resolutions.
disbursements/AUM growth are the key monitorables.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Gr (%)
Other Operational Income
Net Operational Income
YoY Gr (%)
Other Income
Total Net Income
YoY Gr (%)
Operating Expenses
YoY Gr (%)
% to Income
Operating Profit
YoY Gr %
Provisions
PBT
YoY Gr (%)
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
YoY Gr (%)
1Q
1,06,895
70,498
36,397
-8.9
195
36,592
-9.7
2,553
39,144
-4.3
1,445
-77.7
3.7
37,700
9.5
580
37,120
26.3
7,512
20.2
29,607
21.0
Rural Electrification Corporation
Buy
FY24
FY25E
FY24
FY25E
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1,13,930 1,19,440 1,23,836 1,26,904 1,34,744 1,38,112 1,45,423 4,64,101 5,45,182
73,500
76,533
78,961
80,212
85,065
88,468
92,851 2,99,493 3,46,596
40,430
42,907
44,875
46,692
49,678
49,644
52,571 1,64,608 1,98,586
2.1
17.7
28.3
28.3
22.9
15.7
17.1
9
21
546
531
924
469
483
0
0
7,198
8,638
40,976
43,438
45,799
47,161
50,161
49,644
52,571 1,70,141 2,05,323
2.6
17.2
26.1
28.9
22.4
14.3
14.8
19
21
1,425
29
1,674
2,998
731
3,000
2,757
679
848
42,401
43,467
47,473
50,159
50,892
52,644
55,329 1,70,819 2,06,172
0.5
21.5
30.9
28.1
20.0
21.1
16.5
19
21
1,938
1,766
3,114
2,175
1,936
2,566
2,821
6,597
7,598
-65.8
-43.3
130.6
50.6
-0.1
45.3
-9.4
21
15
4.6
4.1
6.6
4.3
3.8
4.9
5.1
4
4
40,463
41,701
44,359
47,984
48,955
50,079
52,508 1,64,223 1,98,573
10.8
27.7
27.0
27.3
21.0
20.1
18.4
19
21
-7,604
559
-7,119
4,726
-1,441
-1,500
-5,977 (13,584)
(4,192)
48,067
41,143
51,478
43,258
50,396
51,579
58,484 1,77,806 2,02,765
40.2
15.6
35.1
16.5
4.8
25.4
13.6
29
14
10,338
8,449
11,315
8,834
10,342
10,419
12,176
37,614
41,770
21.5
20.5
22.0
17.6
20.5
20.2
20.8
21
21
37,729
32,693
40,163
34,425
40,055
41,160
46,308 1,40,192 1,60,996
38.3
13.6
33.8
16.3
6.2
25.9
15.3
26.8
14.8
INR m
CMP INR432 | TP: INR480 (11%)
Disbursements/AUM expected to grow ~7%/8% YoY.
Expect asset quality to continue to improve, resulting in
provision write-backs in the quarter.
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Profits
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Profit after tax
YoY Growth (%)
Loan growth (%)
Cost to Income Ratio (%)
Tax Rate (%)
Repco Home Finance
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -0.5|-0.8
Margins are likely to contract ~15bp QoQ to ~5.3%.
Commentaries around asset quality and guidance on
disbursements/AUM growth are the key monitorables.
Neutral
1Q
3,572
2,026
1,546
16.5
93
1,639
15.7
392
15.7
1,247
15.7
50
1,198
307
891
43.5
6.7
23.9
25.6
FY24
2Q
3,770
2,075
1,695
23.6
69
1,765
18.9
426
24.4
1,338
17.3
16
1,322
341
981
37.9
7.1
24.2
25.8
3Q
3,787
2,153
1,635
17.8
145
1,779
18.7
410
2.9
1,370
24.5
29
1,341
346
994
23.1
8.1
23.0
25.8
4Q
3,831
2,203
1,628
10.5
141
1,769
11.9
483
27.6
1,287
6.9
-100
1,387
306
1,081
31.6
8.5
27.3
22.1
1Q
4,007
2,330
1,677
8.5
155
1,833
11.8
452
15.4
1,380
10.7
14
1,366
312
1,054
18.4
8.3
24.7
22.8
FY25E
2Q
4,051
2,396
1,656
-2.3
229
1,884
6.8
517
21.2
1,367
2.2
-160
1,528
403
1,125
14.7
8.1
27.4
26.3
3Q
4,140
2,448
1,692
3.5
170
1,862
4.6
475
16.1
1,386
1.2
-88
1,475
383
1,091
9.7
7.9
25.5
26.0
4Q
4,237
2,446
1,791
10.0
73
1,864
5.4
535
10.9
1,329
3.3
-150
1,479
353
1,126
4.2
8.1
28.7
23.8
FY24
14,960
8,456
6,504
17.0
448
6,952
16.2
1,710
17.3
5,242
15.9
-5
5,247
1,300
3,947
33.3
9.0
24.6
24.8
FY25E
16,435
9,619
6,816
4.8
627
7,443
7.1
1,980
15.8
5,463
4.2
-384
5,847
1,450
4,397
11.4
9.6
26.6
24.8
January 2025
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
CMP INR2,917| TP: INR3,725 (+28%)
Estimate disbursements of ~INR419b, leading to AUM of
~INR2.53t (up 18% YoY/ ~4% QoQ).
Margin is expected to contract ~5bp QoQ to 9.1%.
Shriram Finance
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: 0.1|-0.4
Credit cost is likely to increase ~5bp QoQ to 2.1%.
Buy
Commentaries on loan growth in CV and on asset quality in
2W and PL segments are the key monitorables.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Exceptional gain
PAT (including exceptional gains/loss)
1Q
76,880
34,875
42,004
20.0
3,167
45,171
22.0
13,908
31,262
17.3
8,786
22,476
5,722
16,754
30.8
FY24
2Q
3Q
82,166 86,179
36,219 37,069
45,947 49,110
21.6
17.1
3,479
3,094
49,426 52,204
17.9
16.2
14,618 15,311
34,808 36,893
16.3
11.7
11,286 12,497
23,523 24,396
6,014
6,213
17,508 18,183
12.6
2.3
4Q
90,773
39,898
50,874
21.7
4,206
55,080
21.7
16,024
39,056
26.8
12,615
26,441
6,983
19,459
48.7
1Q
93,628
41,289
52,339
24.6
2,343
54,682
21.1
16,140
38,541
23.3
11,876
26,666
6,860
19,806
18.2
FY25E
2Q
3Q
98,145 1,02,365
43,504
45,810
54,641
56,555
18.9
15.2
2,805
3,046
57,446
59,601
16.2
14.2
17,597
18,373
39,848
41,228
14.5
11.7
12,350
13,156
27,498
28,072
6,803
7,018
20,696
21,054
18.2
15.8
13,100
34,154
4Q
1,06,565
47,081
59,484
16.9
4,471
63,956
16.1
19,086
44,870
14.9
13,671
31,198
8,245
22,953
18.0
FY24
3,35,997
1,48,061
1,87,935
17.0
13,980
2,01,915
17.0
59,895
1,42,020
15.1
45,183
96,836
24,932
71,905
20.3
FY25E
4,00,703
1,77,684
2,23,019
18.7
12,665
2,35,684
16.7
71,197
1,64,487
15.8
51,052
1,13,435
28,926
84,509
17.5
CMP INR330 | TP: INR385 (+17%)
Estimate disbursements of ~INR15b, leading to AUM of
~INR96b (AUM declined ~8% YoY).
Margin is likely to contract ~70bp QoQ to ~13.3%.
Spandana Sphoorty
EPS CHANGE (%): FY26|27: -29.8|-19.7
Annualized credit costs to increase to 34.9% (PQ: 20.7%).
Buy
Guidance on credit costs, margins, and AUM growth to be
closely monitored.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
YoY Growth (%)
Other Income
Total Income
YoY Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
YoY Growth (%)
Provisions & Loan Losses
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
YoY Growth (%)
1Q
4,929
1,995
2,934
99.3
344
3,277
102.2
1,386
1,891
273.5
286
1,605
411
1,195
-154
FY24
2Q
5,436
2,277
3,159
70.6
966
4,125
88.5
1,549
2,576
134.1
901
1,675
423
1,252
127
3Q
5,663
2,502
3,161
45.7
905
4,067
59.9
1,662
2,405
71.0
701
1,703
429
1,274
79
4Q
6,352
2,493
3,859
42.8
744
4,603
19.9
1,943
2,660
2.0
938
1,722
435
1,287
22
1Q
6,935
2,594
4,342
48.0
435
4,776
45.7
1,908
2,869
51.7
2,118
751
193
557
-53
FY25
2Q
6,071
2,584
3,487
10.4
994
4,481
8.6
2,203
2,278
-11.6
5,164
-2,886
-723
-2,163
-273
3Q
5,221
2,352
2,870
-9.2
816
3,686
-9.4
2,251
1,435
-40.3
7,540
-6,105
-1,538
-4,567
-458
4Q
5,063
2,174
2,889
-25.1
984
3,873
-15.9
2,375
1,498
-43.7
2,153
-655
-183
-473
-137
FY24
22,381
9,268
13,113
60.0
2,959
16,072
57.7
6,540
9,532
69.6
2,826
6,706
1,699
5,007
3,940
FY25E
23,290
9,704
13,587
3.6
3,229
16,816
4.6
8,737
8,079
-15.2
16,975
-8,896
-2,251
-6,645
-233
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
January 2025
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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January 2025
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs
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January 2025
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