19 January 2025
E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
Budget Preview: Spending growth likely to remain subdued in FY26
Expect fiscal deficit target at 4.5% of GDP in FY26
The Government of India (GoI) will present its Budget 2025-26 on Saturday, 1st Feb’25. The first full-year Budget of the
new government comes against the backdrop of slower domestic economic growth, a weakening currency, and a highly
uncertain global geopolitical situation (especially the Trump-led US administration). Not surprisingly then, the
expectations are running high. In this note, we present our five key expectations from the Union Budget 2025-26 and also
discuss the fiscal math.
Five key expectations from the Union Budget 2025-26:
1.
Make interest-free capex loans to states conditional: One of the most worrying trends in public finances for the past 2-3
years has been the increasing number of welfare schemes. The Union Government announced the PM-KISAN scheme in
the interim Budget 2019, which was followed up with free food grains to about 813.5m citizens in Dec’22 for one year
and was extended to five years in Nov’23. Notwithstanding the prospering India, several states have announced
unconditional monthly stipends to various groups (women, students, unemployed, etc.) without any economic criteria or
statistical reasoning, which is a bit confusing. If states have the resources to announce cash transfers or other welfare
schemes, then the need for interest-free loans for capex to states by the central government must be reviewed. It would
be useful to link such capex loans with some conditions, such as a) the achievement of capex by each state vs. its budget
estimate, and b) the ratio of welfare schemes/cash transfer/current expenditure to capital expenditure of each state. The
higher the former and the lower the latter, the more the state deserves capex support from the central government.
Such conditions would help bring some fiscal discipline.
2.
Lower/simplify indirect taxes and change dividend income tax policy: There is no doubt that personal income tax rates
are high, but the burden of indirect taxes is more widespread and concerning. Based on the central government’s gross
taxes data, direct taxes (personal and corporate income taxes) account for ~57% of total taxes now, the highest share in
15 years. Nevertheless, if we include states’ taxes, the indirect taxes still account for ~60% of all tax receipts in the
country, the same as it was a decade ago
(Exhibit 1).
We recommend that: a) double taxation on dividend income be
abolished by either making it tax deductible for companies or by reverting to the old system of including it only in the
corporate income taxes, and b) the government needs to articulate its intention of making GST simpler by reducing tax
slabs and interventions and lowering the burden of indirect taxes.
3.
Focus on boosting household income, not consumption: It is widely believed that urban consumption growth has slowed
down, while the rural economy has improved in FY25. There is, thus, a lot of expectation from the government to boost
consumption. This, we believe, is unwarranted. The government needs to focus on improving household income growth
rather than consumption. Apart from simplifying and lowering indirect taxes, any support to the construction sector (the
second-highest employer industry in India) would be highly effective. Further, while the formalization of the economy is
beneficial, it is not advisable to completely overlook the huge informal sector (e.g., MSMEs). Therefore, any non-
inflationary support to the micro and small enterprises would be welcome.
4.
Remain on the path of fiscal consolidation and focus on capex: It is very likely now that the government will miss its FY25
capex target by about INR1t. Further, the first batch of supplementary demands for grants for FY25 included proposals
involving a net cash outgo of INR441b. Total spending, thus, is anticipated to be lower than the targets this year, even
though total receipts could meet the budget estimates (slightly better tax receipts, offset by lower non-debt capital
receipts). Therefore, the central government will probably overachieve its fiscal deficit target this year. We recommend
that the government continue on the path of consolidation and target a deficit of 4.5% of GDP next year, with a clear
preference for capex. We expect 10-15% growth in capex in FY26, following +/-5% change this year (FY25). At the same
time, if the government chooses to target the debt-to-GDP ratio from the subsequent years, it needs to clearly outline its
target range (or point target) over a longer period.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha–
Research Analyst
(Tanisha.ladha@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
5.
The government should accept its limitations in incentivizing corporate investments: Finally, the government needs to
recognize its limitations in pushing private corporate investments higher. During the past five years (FY20-FY24E),
government capex has recorded a CAGR of 16%, household investments have risen by 12%, and corporate investments
have experienced a CAGR of only 6%. Excluding CPSEs (whose capex declined), private corporate capex grew 8% during
the past five years. This is despite a steep reduction in the corporate income tax rate in Sep’19. Although it may be
appealing to attribute the lack of increased spending to companies, we must acknowledge that their spending decisions
are primarily driven by project viability and available profitable opportunities. The government needs to accept that the
rising prominence of equity markets, globalization, and independent management have diminished the policymakers’
ability to influence corporate investments. It is worth analyzing if India’s corporate investments can rise from the current
levels without compromising sustainability, rather than announcing further incentives to push corporate investments.
Budget 2025-26 in numbers:
The Center’s fiscal deficit stood at INR8.5t or 52.5% of budget estimates (BEs) in the first eight months of FY25 (Apr-
Nov’24), compared to 50.7% of BEs in the corresponding period last year. One of the reasons for the higher fiscal deficit
in FY25TYD is that the Center has devolved two advance installments of taxes to state governments (INR699b in Jun’24
and INR891b in Oct’24). The GoI released an additional amount of INR839b in
early Jan’25
as well. Therefore, the GoI had
devolved almost two-thirds of the budgeted tax devolution to states as of Nov’24, compared to 53%/58% in the
corresponding periods in FY23/FY24 (which increased to 86% as of Jan’25 vs. 70%/73% in the previous two years).
Although the GoI has devolved more taxes to states, gross tax collections have also amounted to 59% of BEs as of Nov’24,
lower than 61% in the corresponding period last year
(Exhibit 2).
It means gross taxes have increased 10.7% YoY during
Apr-Nov’24, similar to the budgeted growth of 10.8% in FY25. Although GST receipts have posted slower growth in recent
months, total indirect taxes have been 64.2% of BEs as of Nov’24 (better than 62.5% last year), and direct taxes have
been only 54.9% (vs. 59.3% in FY24). Going forward, we expect the GoI to meet its indirect tax collection target and
overachieve its personal income tax target but likely fall short in terms of corporate tax receipts. Overall, we expect the
GoI to overachieve its tax target in FY25.
At the same time, total expenditure was at a two-decade low of 56.9% of BEs as of Nov’24, compared to 58.9% in FY24.
This was largely led by a decline of 12% YoY in capital spending, due to which it was at a 15-year low of 46.2% of BEs as of
Nov’24 (vs. 8.5% in FY24). Revenue spending, on the other hand, was 60.1% of BEs as of Nov’24, better than 59%
achieved in the corresponding period last year
(Exhibit 3).
We hope that the contraction in capex is only temporary and will pick up in the remaining months of FY25. Assuming 40%
YoY growth during Dec’24-Mar’25, total capital spending will still fall short by about INR1t this year, standing at around
INR10t compared to the BE of INR11.1t
(Exhibit 4).
Including the first batch of supplementary grants, revenue spending
could be higher than BEs by INR440b, which means that the aggregate fiscal deficit could be around INR15.5t or INR600b
lower than the BEs in FY25. Considering nominal GDP growth of 9.2% (vs. the NSO’s estimate of 9.7%), it would mean a
deficit of 4.8% of GDP, lower than the 4.9% budgeted in FY25.
For FY26, we expect a 10.6% growth in gross taxes, which would convert into an 8.3% growth in total receipts as the RBI
dividend will likely be significantly lower than it was last year. If so, assuming 10.8% nominal GDP growth in FY26, total
spending could grow 7.1% YoY next year, the same as in FY25
(Exhibit 5).
Nevertheless, we believe that capital spending
will grow by 10-15% next year, which means a growth of 5.5-6% in revenue spending.
All in all, with the Center’s total spending expected to come down to a six-year low of 14.3% of GDP from 14.8% of GDP in
FY25
(Exhibit 6),
the fiscal drag on economic growth will continue. We do not expect any serious improvement in private
spending and fear further slowdown. Accordingly, we keep our
real GDP forecast
at 6.3% in FY26, similar to 5.8% in FY25.
Detailed fiscal math for FY25E (based on provisional data up to Nov’24) and FY26BE (forecast) is provided in
Exhibit 7.
19 January 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 1: Share of direct and indirect taxes in India’s total
tax receipts (% of total)
Share of taxes in total taxes (%)
Direct
Indirect
Exhibit 2: Gross tax receipts are at a four-year low during
Apr-Nov’24 (FY25YTD)
(% of BEs)
Gross tax receipts
58.9
60.6 60.2 63.9 63.4 62.4 62.0 62.4 65.1 63.2 62.1 60.3
39.4 39.8 36.1 36.6 37.6 38.0 37.6 34.9 36.8 37.9 39.7
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY22
FY24P
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
FY25
Center + states data
FY24P is provisional data
Apr-Nov period for all years
Exhibit 3: Total spending is lower due to weak capex in
FY25YTD
(% of BEs)
65.6
63.2 63.3
58.5
Revenue exp
61.5
Capital spending
62.5
Exhibit 4: Capital spending could fall short by about INR1t
this year
Capital spending (INR tn)
11.1
12.6
9.7
10.0
11.1
59.6 59.058.5 60.1
9.5
46.2
49.4
FY25BE
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY24P
FY25E1
FY25E2*
FY25E3
FY26F
FY25 projections#
Apr-Nov period for all years
#E1/E2/E3 = 25%/34%/45% YoY growth in Dec’24-Mar’25
*Base case
Exhibit 5: Total spending growth could remain subdued at
~7% YoY next year
Total spending* growth (% YoY)
Exhibit 6: Total spending is expected to fall to six-year low
of 14.3% of GDP in FY26
Total spending* (% of GDP)
17.7
16.1
15.6
30.7
15.0
14.8
16.0
8.4
8.1
8.1
10.5
5.9
7.1
7.1
12.5
12.2
14.3
13.4
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24P FY25F FY26F
Revenue + Capital spending
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23 FY24P FY25F FY26F
FY25 based on data up to Nov’24
19 January 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 7: What could the fiscal math look like?
FY24P
INRb
27,889
27,284
34,648
23,265
19,220
9,111
10,109
15,428
9,621
2,331
3,053
11,295
4,019
605
331
44,425
29,651
34,940
10,639
4,135
2,904
2,168
15,094
9,485
1,543
2,426
2,639
2,878
16,537
5.6
2,95,357
7,874
FY25BE$
INRb
YoY (%)
32,072
15.0
31,292
14.7
38,402
10.8
25,835
11.0
22,070
14.8
10,200
12.0
11,870
17.4
16,332
5.9
10,619
10.4
2,377
2.0
3,190
4.5
12,472
10.4
5,457
35.8
780
29.0
500
51.0
48,205
8.5
32,292
8.9
37,094
6.2
11,629
9.3
4,284
3.6
2,828
-2.6
2,433
12.2
15,920
5.5
11,111
17.1
1,720
11.5
2,520
3.9
2,722
3.2
4,149
44.2
16,133
4.9
3,26,369
10.5
9,187
16.7
As of Nov’24
% of BEs
59.1
59.8
58.9
55.9
54.9
50.2
59.0
64.2
63.9
64.8
54.9
65.1
78.3
30.7
18.0
56.9
55.8
60.1
56.6
65.2
68.6
72.1
57.8
46.2
41.1
66.8
53.9
30.8
52.5
FY25E*
INRb
YoY (%)
32,087
15.1
31,487
15.4
38,629
11.5
25,978
11.7
21,880
13.8
9,748
7.0
12,131
20.0
16,750
8.6
10,583
10.0
2,517
8.0
3,145
3.0
12,555
11.2
5,509
37.1
600
-0.8
400
20.8
47,594
7.1
31,680
6.8
37,594
7.6
11,629
9.3
4,284
3.6
2,828
-2.6
2,433
12.2
16,420
8.8
10,000
5.4
1,720
11.5
2,520
3.9
2,722
3.2
3,038
5.6
15,507
4.8
3,22,445
9.2
8,200
4.1
FY26BE#
INRb
YoY (%)
34,747
8.3
33,947
7.8
42,725
10.6
28,947
11.4
24,165
10.4
10,821
11.0
13,345
10.0
18,560
10.8
11,747
11.0
2,769
10.0
3,491
11.0
13,672
8.9
5,000
-9.2
800
33.3
600
50.0
50,950
7.1
33,873
6.9
39,850
6.0
12,792
10.0
4,284
0.0
3,111
10.0
2,676
10.0
16,986
3.5
11,100
11.0
1,926
12.0
2,722
8.0
2,940
8.0
3,512
15.6
16,203
4.5
3,57,338
10.8
9,100
11.0
Total receipts
Revenue receipts
Gross taxes
Net taxes
Direct taxes
Corporation taxes
Income taxes
Indirect taxes
Goods & Services Tax (GST)
Customs
Excise Duties
Less:
Devolution to states
Non-tax revenue receipts
Non-debt capital receipts
Divestment
Total expenditure
Primary expenditure^
Revenue expenditure
Interest payments
Subsidies~
Defense
Pensions
Other
Capital spending
Defense
Railways
Roads & Highways
Others
Fiscal deficit
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP)
Nominal GDP
Memo:
Capex@ (Capital outlays)
46.5
$As per the Budget presented in Jul’24 (% YoY over FY24P)
*Our estimates for the full-year based on provisional data available up to Nov’24
~ For major subsidies only
#Our forecast for FY26
^Total expenditure
less
interest and subsidies
@ Excluding loans & advances
Source: Union Budget documents, CGA, CSO, MOFSL
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19 January 2025
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(including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all
investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement
incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any
prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and
the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform
investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of
each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or
developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you
solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed
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would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. N either the Firm, not its directors,
employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with
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The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email
Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person
Ms. Hemangi Date
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
Mr. Ajay Menon
Contact No.
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
022 40548082
022 40548083
Email ID
query@motilaloswal.com
servicehead@motilaloswal.com
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
19 January 2025
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