Sector Update | 1 February 2025
@
Automobiles
In January, we are not seeing any signs of pick-up on the ground for any of the
auto segments. 2W sales are likely to post 1-3% YoY growth, driven by steady
rural demand. PV retails are also likely to post low-single-digit growth YoY.
Discounts in PVs, although low MoM, are higher by 20-25% on a YoY basis,
according to our checks. CV goods demand remained muted, with fleet
utilization moderating, but the bus segment showed strength with expected
mid-teens YoY growth in retails. Tractor sales are likely to see 3-4% YoY
increase, with non-agri demand improving and regional trends varying.
Overall, we expect Jan’25 dispatches for PV/2W/tractors/CVs to grow
~1.5%/4%/8%/1% YoY.
2Ws:
Retails during the month are expected to grow 1-3% YoY, reflecting a
modest pace of growth. However, rural markets continue to outperform urban
areas, driven by improved agricultural sentiments and seasonal marriage
demand, leading to stronger sales in states like MP and UP. Growth has been
observed across both scooters and premium motorcycles, positioning OEMs like
TVS and RE for outperformance. Demand for entry-level models continues to
remain weak. TVS is expected to outperform its peers this month. This is mainly
driven by outperformance in scooters, particularly due to the strong response to
the new Jupiter, which currently has a waiting period of ~3 weeks. The company
has also implemented a minor price hike. For Hero MotoCorp, Xtreme125R
continues to be its key growth driver, while scooter sales fail to revive despite
new launches. Inventory levels are likely to be normal at ~4-5 weeks for 2Ws. All
discounts offered during the festive season have now been withdrawn. For
Jan’25, we expect dispatches for HMCL/BJAUT/TVSL/RE to grow 1%/3%/8%/12%
YoY.
PVs:
We expect PV retails to continue to grow in low-single digits, led by steady
demand in the North, West, and Central regions, while growth in the South
remained relatively subdued. However, cars continue to see weak demand. A
notable trend we observed was the continued strength in rural demand. The
growth in PV volumes was supported by attractive discounts and strong traction
from new model launches, with our feedback indicating that discounts are ~20-
25% higher YoY. Stronger retail sales have brought inventory levels below the
normal range of 3-4 weeks, creating room for inventory push. Feedback for the
new Dzire has been positive, with customers particularly appreciating its
mileage. The LXi variant has no waiting period, while other variants have a
waiting period exceeding six weeks. Similarly, the waiting period for the Creta EV
stands at four months. Despite elevated discounts, demand in the Southern
markets remained lackluster, with no significant growth observed. We expect
dispatches for MSIL/Hyundai/TTMT PV to decline 1% YoY each, while the same
for M&M to grow ~11% YoY during the month.
Demand revival remains elusive
Most sub-segments to post low- to mid-single-digit retail growth in Jan
“With very good reservoir
levels and higher MSP for
key rabi crops, farmer
sentiments are positive
and cash flows healthy.
Good progress in rabi
sowing and a good rabi
crop are expected to
further boost demand for
tractors in coming
months.”
Mr. Hemant Sikka
President, Farm
Equipment Sector - M&M
Research analyst - Aniket Mhatre
(Aniket.Mhatre@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst - Amber Shukla
(Amber.Shukla@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
CVs:
Driven by a slight pickup in replacement demand, we anticipate CV retail
sales to grow 2-3% YoY. However, overall CV demand remains subdued, and
contrary to expectations of a recovery, we did not observe any meaningful
improvement. Our checks indicate that freight rates remained stable MoM,
while fleet utilization softened to 65-70% (75-80% in Oct-Nov). Demand
weakness persisted in segments like white goods and construction, though this
was partially offset by growth in agriculture and auto categories. Additionally,
we noted some pressure on return loads in states such as Rajasthan and MP.
Inventory level has declined to 2-3 weeks (vs 3-4 weeks MoM). On a positive
note, the bus segment showed some growth, with retail volumes expected to
rise ~15-17% YoY. We expect dispatches for TTMT/AL/VECV to grow
~1.5%/3%/3% YoY in Jan’25
Tractors:
We expect tractor retail volumes to grow 3-4% YoY this month, with an
average inventory at around 40 days. Non-agri tractor demand is also showing
improvement, with a smaller YoY decline of 3-4% YoY. Demand across key
regions reflects a healthy growth trend, with regional variations influencing
overall market performance. Punjab is seeing strong demand. No price hikes
have been reported, and discounts are around INR30k. Gujarat also shows good
growth, with a price increase of about 2%, while discounts are higher at ~INR60k
but show a declining trend. Inventory in this region is about 1.5 months, across
key players like MM, TAFE, and Escorts. In Maharashtra, growth is slower, with
Johwar prices between INR 2,500-2,800, and discounts increasing to INR40k-50k.
Inventory levels are around 60 days, with Swaraj and John Deere having higher
inventory. Our interaction in MP too suggested healthy sales, with expectations
for demand to improve once wheat harvesting begins. We expect volumes for
MM and ESCORTS to grow by 8%/9% YoY in Jan’25.
Valuation and view:
Except for the tractor segment, which is experiencing a
healthy demand uptick, we are not seeing any signs of pick-up in growth in any
other key auto segments at the moment. MSIL is our top pick among auto OEMs
as its upcoming new launches are expected to continue to help improve the mix
and drive healthy earnings growth. We also like MM given the upcycle in tractors
and healthy growth in UVs. Among ancillaries, we prefer MOTHERSO, ENDU, and
HAPPYFORG.
1 February 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-25
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
Domestic
Export
Hyundai Motor
Domestic
Exports
Mahindra & Mahindra
UV (incl. pick-ups)
LCV & M&HCV
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
Two-Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Ashok Leyland
M&HCV
LCV
TVS Motor
Motorcycles
Scooters
Mopeds
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
VECV
Escorts Kubota
Jan-25
1,97,315
1,67,315
30,000
66,649
54,259
12,390
1,07,286
73,226
1,700
6,496
25,864
85,922
15,122
17,462
32,584
12,778
40,560
4,37,934
3,67,215
3,15,760
51,456
2,13,841
1,53,374
16,460
10,625
5,835
3,65,912
1,54,055
1,61,394
42,036
8,427
2,81,313
84,598
85,329
7,267
6,721
Jan-24
1,99,225
1,75,304
23,921
67,615
57,115
10,500
97,892
65,969
2,326
5,649
23,948
86,125
14,972
17,120
32,092
15,033
39,000
4,33,598
3,56,010
3,08,248
47,762
2,30,043
1,25,967
15,937
10,216
5,721
3,39,513
1,55,611
1,32,290
42,036
9,576
2,70,170
69,343
76,187
7,066
6,185
YoY (%)
chg
-1.0
-4.6
25.4
-1.4
-5.0
18.0
9.6
11.0
-26.9
15.0
8.0
-0.2
1.0
2.0
1.5
-15.0
4.0
1.0
3.1
2.4
7.7
-7.0
21.8
3.3
4.0
2.0
7.8
-1.0
22.0
0.0
-12.0
4.1
22.0
12.0
2.9
8.7
MoM
MoM
Dec-24
(%) chg
1,78,248 10.7
1,40,829 18.8
37,419 -19.8
55,078 21.0
42,208 28.6
12,870
-3.7
92,711 15.7
63,064 16.1
954
78.2
5,750
13.0
22,943 12.7
78,164
9.9
16,604
-8.9
17,271
1.1
33,875
-3.8
7,595
68.2
36,694 10.5
4,04,983 8.1
3,23,125 13.6
2,72,173 16.0
50,952
1.0
1,62,420 31.7
1,60,705 -4.6
16,957
-2.9
11,474
-7.4
5,483
6.4
3,21,687 13.7
1,44,811 6.4
1,33,919 20.5
33,272 26.3
9,685
-13.0
2,17,294 29.5
1,04,393 -19.0
79,466
8,324
5,472
7.4
-12.7
22.8
FY25YTD
18,26,946
15,49,450
2,77,496
6,37,051
4,99,375
1,37,676
11,31,996
6,75,172
23,604
70,733
3,62,487
7,66,446
1,42,637
1,61,207
3,03,844
1,03,377
3,59,225
50,36,653
39,15,247
33,54,506
5,60,742
23,88,278
15,26,969
1,52,381
96,748
55,633
38,93,262
17,85,201
15,63,079
4,38,498
1,06,484
29,52,687
9,40,574
8,11,519
68,753
95,642
FY24YTD
17,50,516
15,22,268
2,28,248
6,51,774
5,11,519
1,40,255
10,15,073
6,01,524
16,707
66,152
3,30,690
7,90,375
1,45,128
1,73,370
3,18,498
1,58,388
3,13,489
46,62,630
36,38,367
31,19,354
5,19,013
22,87,436
13,50,931
1,54,183
97,782
56,401
34,67,978
16,34,709
13,06,326
4,01,533
1,25,410
26,45,653
8,22,325
7,61,246
66,894
82,671
(%)
chg
4.4
1.8
21.6
-2.3
-2.4
-1.8
11.5
12.2
41.3
6.9
9.6
-3.0
-1.7
-7.0
-4.6
-34.7
14.6
8.0
7.6
7.5
8.0
4.4
13.0
-1.2
-1.1
-1
12.3
9.2
19.7
9.2
-15.1
11.6
14.4
6.6
2.8
15.7
FY25E
21,96,631
18,73,150
3,23,481
7,68,402
6,01,116
1,67,286
13,33,813
8,14,255
25,043
80,693
4,13,823
9,30,735
1,77,284
2,00,306
3,77,590
1,17,899
4,35,246
59,48,607
44,21,040
37,50,254
6,70,786
25,47,945
18,73,095
1,88,278
1,20,952
67,326
47,07,236
21,61,146
18,86,919
5,27,521
1,31,649
35,63,374
11,43,862
9,71,190
87,158
1,17,426
Gr.
(%)
2.9
1.1
14.3
-1.2
-2.2
2.5
11.3
12.6
30.5
4.0
9.4
-4.0
-2.1
-6.7
-4.6
-36.1
11.9
5.8
4.7
4.2
7.7
-1.5
14.5
-3.3
-3.1
-3.5
12.3
8.4
20.4
8.9
-9.9
12.1
12.9
6.4
1.9
22.5
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
1,84,842
1,61,850
22,992
65,675
50,870
14,805
1,00,909
69,541
719
4,980
25,668
82,144
17,324
19,549
36,873
7,261
38,011
4,55,977
2,52,896
1,97,874
55,022
79,833
1,73,063
17,948
12,102
5,846
4,06,987
1,87,973
1,61,920
44,512
12,583
3,05,343
1,01,644
79,835
9,202
10,892
FY25 YTD
Monthly
Run rate
1,82,695
1,54,945
27,750
63,705
49,938
13,768
1,13,200
67,517
2,360
7,073
36,249
76,645
14,264
16,121
30,384
10,338
35,922
5,03,665
3,91,525
3,35,451
56,074
2,38,828
1,52,697
15,238
9,675
5,563
3,89,326
1,78,520
1,56,308
43,850
10,648
2,95,269
94,057
81,152
6,875
9,564
Source: Company, MOFSL
1 February 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Comparative valuations
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
Eicher Motors
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
Tata Motors
Hyundai
Ashok Leyland
Escorts
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
SAMIL
CIE Automotive
CEAT
Balkrishna Ind
MRF
Apollo Tyres
Sona BLW
Tube Investments
MSUMI
CRAFTSMAN
Happy Forgings
Rating
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
CMP
(INR)
8,851
4,341
2,457
5,197
12,308
2,992
716
1,678
217
3,627
1,225
374
1,035
28,735
1,990
141
464
2,858
2,768
1,13,603
437
504
3,323
56
4,190
1,001
P/E (x)
FY26E
FY27E
26.9
23.4
18.1
16.7
38.1
31.9
29.6
26.6
24.0
21.5
24.8
21.2
11.6
11.9
23.7
20.8
19.2
16.1
31.9
25.8
31.0
26.4
17.4
36.6
26.4
20.3
19.1
16.8
26.9
22.5
14.4
47.1
51.7
32.3
27.2
27.5
66.5
43.3
128.9
111.0
58.3
37.7
12.7
113.2
53.0
22.8
8.1
394.5
0.0
63.9
0.0
22.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY26E
FY27E
19.1
16.7
11.6
10.6
24.0
20.7
27.1
24.4
15.6
13.4
17.8
15.2
4.6
4.1
13.1
11.2
11.5
9.5
22.9
17.8
17.0
14.6
9.7
32.0
15.4
8.4
11.4
7.7
16.9
9.5
6.5
27.1
29.0
21.8
12.8
18.9
44.6
25.0
44.0
6.9
34.8
20.5
9.4
56.0
24.8
11.8
4.2
214.4
0.0
30.2
0.0
15.7
PB (x)
FY26E FY27E
8.1
7.4
4.2
4.0
9.5
7.6
5.9
5.2
3.7
3.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.8
7.1
5.8
5.5
4.7
3.9
3.5
6.4
2.1
2.2
5.9
4.3
2.6
2.4
2.3
4.6
2.4
1.4
5.3
9.1
10.4
4.4
5.1
12.3
9.9
8.7
24.2
7.8
16.6
6.9
22.1
10.1
4.4
1.3
49.0
0.0
8.2
3.8
5.1
FY25E Yield (%) EPS CAGR
Div
FCF (%) FY25-27E
2.3
2.4
9.2
3.8
4.5
8.4
0.4
1.6
21.2
1.1
4.5
9.6
1.2
1.3
10.4
0.8
2.9
16.6
0.6
2.3
2.7
1.0
2.0
9.5
2.3
7.1
11.2
0.5
3.6
9.5
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.5
1.1
0.7
0.1
1.3
0.5
0.5
2.2
1.9
5.0
1.2
1.9
3.1
2.3
1.8
1.9
3.3
7.9
1.0
1.5
1.8
-5.1
1.8
41.4
7.0
9.7
12.5
26.3
37.0
7.3
0.2
15.9
0.5
1.8
9.4
36.7
9.7
3.3
44.6
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
1 February 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in
the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock
broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual
Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products. Details of associate entities of Motilal
Oswal Financial Services Ltd. are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relatives may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst or their relatives may have actual
beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance.
MOFSL
and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may have any other potential conflict of interests at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public
appearance, however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the
views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
In the past 12 months, MOFSL or any of its associates may have:
a)
received any compensation/other benefits from the subject company of this report
b)
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
c)
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
d)
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer/employee in the subject company.
MOFSL and research analyst may engage in market making activity for the subject company.
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), and Research Analyst and their relatives from time to time may have:
a) a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein.
(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act
as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same
shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of
MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts
which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
To enhance transparency, MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL
and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may have a
potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report.
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This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any
way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures
and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources
believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such
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for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients
as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
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Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical
Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have
an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
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MOTILAL Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the
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provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct
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Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
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Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change
without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their
directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or
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independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible
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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
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Ms. Hemangi Date
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
Mr. Ajay Menon
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022 40548000 / 022 67490600
022 40548082
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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
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