Sector Update | 1 February 2025
@
Automobiles
In January, we are not seeing any signs of pick-up on the ground for any of the
auto segments. 2W sales are likely to post 1-3% YoY growth, driven by steady
rural demand. PV retails are also likely to post low-single-digit growth YoY.
Discounts in PVs, although low MoM, are higher by 20-25% on a YoY basis,
according to our checks. CV goods demand remained muted, with fleet
utilization moderating, but the bus segment showed strength with expected
mid-teens YoY growth in retails. Tractor sales are likely to see 3-4% YoY
increase, with non-agri demand improving and regional trends varying.
Overall, we expect Jan’25 dispatches for PV/2W/tractors/CVs to grow
~1.5%/4%/8%/1% YoY.
2Ws:
Retails during the month are expected to grow 1-3% YoY, reflecting a
modest pace of growth. However, rural markets continue to outperform urban
areas, driven by improved agricultural sentiments and seasonal marriage
demand, leading to stronger sales in states like MP and UP. Growth has been
observed across both scooters and premium motorcycles, positioning OEMs like
TVS and RE for outperformance. Demand for entry-level models continues to
remain weak. TVS is expected to outperform its peers this month. This is mainly
driven by outperformance in scooters, particularly due to the strong response to
the new Jupiter, which currently has a waiting period of ~3 weeks. The company
has also implemented a minor price hike. For Hero MotoCorp, Xtreme125R
continues to be its key growth driver, while scooter sales fail to revive despite
new launches. Inventory levels are likely to be normal at ~4-5 weeks for 2Ws. All
discounts offered during the festive season have now been withdrawn. For
Jan’25, we expect dispatches for HMCL/BJAUT/TVSL/RE to grow 1%/3%/8%/12%
YoY.
PVs:
We expect PV retails to continue to grow in low-single digits, led by steady
demand in the North, West, and Central regions, while growth in the South
remained relatively subdued. However, cars continue to see weak demand. A
notable trend we observed was the continued strength in rural demand. The
growth in PV volumes was supported by attractive discounts and strong traction
from new model launches, with our feedback indicating that discounts are ~20-
25% higher YoY. Stronger retail sales have brought inventory levels below the
normal range of 3-4 weeks, creating room for inventory push. Feedback for the
new Dzire has been positive, with customers particularly appreciating its
mileage. The LXi variant has no waiting period, while other variants have a
waiting period exceeding six weeks. Similarly, the waiting period for the Creta EV
stands at four months. Despite elevated discounts, demand in the Southern
markets remained lackluster, with no significant growth observed. We expect
dispatches for MSIL/Hyundai/TTMT PV to decline 1% YoY each, while the same
for M&M to grow ~11% YoY during the month.
Demand revival remains elusive
Most sub-segments to post low- to mid-single-digit retail growth in Jan
“With very good reservoir
levels and higher MSP for
key rabi crops, farmer
sentiments are positive
and cash flows healthy.
Good progress in rabi
sowing and a good rabi
crop are expected to
further boost demand for
tractors in coming
months.”
Mr. Hemant Sikka
President, Farm
Equipment Sector - M&M
Research analyst - Aniket Mhatre
(Aniket.Mhatre@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst - Amber Shukla
(Amber.Shukla@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.