Motilal Oswal Financial Services

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

India Strategy

BSE Sensex: 75,939

Refer to our Dec’24

Quarter Preview

Nifty-50: 22,929

Earnings review – A modest 3QFY25; Earnings downgrade ratio

worst since 1QFY21!

Valuations still expensive for SMIDs; prefer large-caps



A third consecutive quarter of low single-digit earnings growth:

This market

correction has coincided with a slowdown in earnings growth, as the Nifty-50 has

managed only 4% PAT growth in 9MFY25 (following a healthy 20%+ CAGR during

FY20-24). The 3QFY25 corporate earnings scorecard was modest, driven once

again by BFSI, with positive contributions from Technology, Telecom, Healthcare,

Capital Goods, and Real Estate.



BFSI drives with PSU Banks benefitting from lower credit costs:

The aggregate

earnings of the MOFSL Universe companies were in line with our estimates and

increased 6% YoY (vs. our est. of 7% YoY). Earnings for the Nifty-50 rose 5% YoY (vs.

our est. of +5%). The aggregate performance was hit by global commodities (i.e.,

Metals and O&G). Excluding the same, the MOFSL Universe and Nifty posted 10%

and 7% earnings growth vs. our expectations of +11% and +7%, respectively. The

earnings growth was driven by BFSI (+11% YoY) with PSU Banks (+24% YoY vs. our

est. of 13% growth) leading the charge. Technology (+9% YoY), Telecom (profit of

INR9b vs. a loss of INR35b), Healthcare (+25% YoY), Capital Goods (+20% YoY), and

Real Estate (+60% YoY) also contributed to the growth. Conversely, earnings

growth was hindered by global cyclicals, such as O&G (OMC’s profit declined 18%

YoY), which dipped 11% YoY, along with Cement (-55% YoY), Chemicals (-12% YoY),

and Consumer (-5% YoY).



A third successive quarter of single-digit growth for Nifty-50:

Nifty delivered a 5%

YoY PAT growth (vs. our est. of +5%).

Nifty reported a single-digit PAT growth for

the third successive quarter since the pandemic (Jun’20).

Five Nifty companies –

Bharti Airtel, SBI, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, and Reliance Industries – contributed 111%

of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely, Coal India, ONGC, Tata

Motors, JSW Steel, and IndusInd Bank contributed adversely to the earnings.



Large-caps in line, mid-caps deliver a beat, while small-caps report a big miss:

Within our MOFSL coverage universe, large-caps (84 companies) posted an in-line

earnings growth of 5% YoY. Mid-caps (87 companies) stood out and delivered 26%

earnings growth (est. of 17%), led by Financials (PSU Banks and NBFCs),

Commodities (Metals and O&G), and Retail. Small-caps (121 companies)

experienced a broad-based miss as earnings dipped 24% YoY (est. of: -5%) with

56% of our coverage universe missing the estimates. Conversely, within our large-

cap and mid-cap universe, 29%/43% of the companies missed the estimates.



The beat-miss dynamics:

The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was

unfavorable, with 44% of the companies missing our estimates, while 28%

reported a beat at the PAT level. For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-

to-downgrade ratio has turned weaker for FY26E as 37 companies’ earnings

have been upgraded by >3%, while 137 companies’ earnings have been

downgraded by >3%. The earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio of 0.3x was the

worst since 1QFY21. Further, the EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-

Financials) expanded slightly by 40bp YoY to 17.4%, primarily aided by the

Healthcare, Telecom, and Infrastructure sectors but hurt by the Cement,

Consumer, Automobiles, and Chemicals sectors.

Expectations vs. delivery: 3QFY25

% of companies that have declared results

Above Expectations

In-line

Below Expectations

MOFSL

PAT

Nifty

Research Analyst: Gautam Duggad

(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com) |

Deven Mistry

(Deven@MotilalOswal.com)

Research Analyst: Abhishek Saraf

(Abhishek.Saraf@MotilalOswal.com) |

Aanshul Agarawal

(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)

February 2025

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

PAT growth YoY in 3QFY25 (%)



MOFSL Ex BFSI

Univ.

Metals OMCs

& Oil



PAT growth YoY in 9MFY25 (%)

8.4

2.3

2.6

MOFSL

Univ.

Large

Cap

Mid Cap

-17.9

Small

Cap

Report card:

Of the 25 sectors under our coverage, 3/12/10 sectors reported

profits above/in line/below our estimates. Of the 292 companies under coverage,

81 exceeded our profit estimates, while 129 posted a miss, and 82 were in line.

The 9MFY25 snapshot:

The MOFSL Universe delivered a 2.3% YoY earnings

growth in 9MFY25. Excluding Metals, and O&G, it reported an 11.8% YoY

earnings growth.

We categorized the coverage stocks based on market

capitalization criteria into large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap segments.

Notably, our large-cap universe saw a 2.6% YoY earnings growth in 9MFY25,

while mid-cap delivered an 8.4% YoY growth, and small-cap posted a decline of

17.9% YoY in 9MFY25. For 4QFY25, we estimate a modest earnings growth for

the MOFSL and Nifty Universe, at 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively.

FY26E earnings highlights:

The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/

PAT growth of 7%/15%/19% YoY in FY26. The Financials, Oil & Gas, and Metals

sectors are projected to be the key growth engines, with 13%, 24%, and 37%

YoY earnings growth, respectively. However, we foresee downside risks to our

earnings estimates for FY26E/27E.

MOFSL Universe experienced a cut of 1.8%/2.3% for FY26E/FY27:

Our MOFSL

Universe witnessed a cut of 1.8% for FY26, led by Metals, Private Banks,

Consumers, Cement, and Automobiles. Further, our small-cap and mid-cap

universes experienced a bigger cut at 5.9% and 3.4%, respectively. The large-cap

universe witnessed a cut of 1.2%.

Nifty EPS cut by 1.4%/1.8% for FY26E/FY27E:

The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 was

cut by 1.4% to INR1,203, largely owing to ONGC, HDFC Bank, JSW Steel, Axis Bank,

and SBI. FY27E EPS was also reduced by 1.8% to INR1,373 (from INR1,398) due to

downgrades in SBI, HDFC Bank, ONGC, Tata Steel, and Reliance Industries.

The top earnings upgrades in FY26E:

Bharti Airtel (9.2%), Hindalco (4.2%), Tata

Motors (4.1%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (3.6%), and Maruti (3.5%).

The top earnings downgrades in FY26E:

JSW Steel (-9.5%), Tata Consumer (-6.5%),

Tata Steel (-5.9%), Trent (-5.5%), and Dr. Reddy’s Labs (-5%).

Key sectoral highlights

–

Banks:

The banking sector reported another soft

quarter amid moderation in margins and sustained higher provisioning

expenses, mainly for the private banks. NIM continued to dip amid cost

pressure, while the competition for deposits continued to remain intensive for

banks, and the CASA mix continued to deteriorate. Public sector banks too

experienced some NIM compression, albeit very limited. 2)

Autos:

The 3Q

performance was weak with a 2% YoY dip in profit. Management commentary

on FY26 demand was uncertain, with signs of moderation across segments,

while the commentary appeared more optimistic about rural demand outpacing

urban demand. 3)

Consumer:

The sector continued to report weak

performance, with the profit of our consumer universe posting a decline of 5%

YoY. Challenging demand conditions coupled with margin pressures meant that

management commentaries did not offer much respite either. 4)

Oil & Gas:

Revenue came in line with our estimate (flat YoY). Adjusted PAT was 7% below

est. (down 11% YoY). Adjusted PAT, excluding OMCs, was in line (down 8% YoY).

Technology:

The IT Services companies under our coverage presented a

mixed picture in a seasonally weak quarter, with a median revenue growth of

1.8% QoQ CC in 3QFY25 (vs. 2.0%/1.2%/0.7% in 2QFY25/1QFY25/4QFY24).

Guidance upgrades by major companies were disappointing. 6)

Healthcare:

The

sector stood out once again with a solid 25% earnings growth (est. 19% YoY).

Overall performance at the aggregate level was driven by: 1) a sustained

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Sector Review

Compendium

Highlights / Surprise /

Guidance… (Page 20 onwards)

Automobiles

Capital Goods

Cement

Chemicals

Consumer – FMCG | QSR

Consumer Durables

EMS

Financials – Banks

Financials – NBFC: Lending

Financials – NBFC: Non Lending

Healthcare

Infrastructure

Logistics

Metals

Oil & Gas

Real Estate

Retail

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Exhibit 1: Our preferred ideas



contribution from niche products in the US generics segment, 2) a demand

tailwind in chronic therapies, and 3) elevated inventory levels of raw materials,

which helped keep their prices in check. The aggregate performance was partly

hit by reduced support from the acute therapies.

Our view:

The 3QFY25 earnings are in line with modest expectations; however,

forward earnings revisions are the weakest in recent times, with downgrades far

outpacing upgrades, especially in our non-Nifty 50 universe. Weakness in

consumption coupled with a drag from commodities has put severe pressure on

earnings even as BFSI, Healthcare, Capital Goods, and Technology have recorded

a healthy print.

After a healthy 55% earnings CAGR over FY19-24 by the MOFSL

Banking universe, the tailwind is now tapering off with FY25 earnings growing at

a healthy but relatively modest 14%, while FY25-27E CAGR is projected at 12%

(within which FY26E growth is estimated at a mere 9%).

The expectations for

FY26 corporate earnings (19% for the MOFSL Universe and 15% for the Nifty-50)

are still somewhat elevated, in our opinion, given the underlying macro-micro

backdrop and are thus ripe for further downgrades. The recent correction in

broader markets factors into some of the potential disappointments in earnings

ahead. That said, the valuations for mid and small-caps are still expensive vis-à-

vis their history as well as vs. Nifty-50. The Nifty is trading at a 12-month

forward P/E of 19.3x, below its long-period average (LPA) of 20.5x. Thus, we

continue to remain biased toward large caps with a 76% allocation in our model

portfolio. We are OW on Consumption, BFSI, IT, Industrials, Healthcare, and Real

Estate, while we are UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Automobiles, and Metals.

Company

Preferred large cap stocks

Reliance Inds.

189.6 1,217 50.6 61.0 67.9

8.9

24.0 20.0 17.9 1.9

Bharti Airtel

120.4 1,717 36.9 44.9 62.0

51.1

46.5 38.3 27.7 9.8

ICICI Bank

102.3 1,258 66.3 71.7 82.0

10.9

19.0 17.5 15.3 3.2

State Bank

74.2 722 89.2 97.3 112.6

13.8

8.1 7.4 6.4 1.4

Hind. Unilever

62.7 2,318 44.1 49.3 54.1

6.2

52.6 47.0 42.8 10.6

Larsen & Toubro

51.3 3,238 106.2 135.4 156.5

19.7

30.5 23.9 20.7 4.6

Sun Pharma

47.1 1,705 49.2 59.5 66.6

19.8

34.7 28.7 25.6 5.6

Maruti Suzuki

45.9 12,669 462.3 512.4 573.4

10.4

27.4 24.7 22.1 4.2

Mahindra & Mahindra

40.6 2,941 99.3 124.6 145.1

18.5

29.6 23.6 20.3 5.7

Titan Company

32.9 3,212 42.8 53.4 63.8

16.6

75.0 60.2 50.3 23.7

Trent

20.9 5,117 45.0 61.4 78.2

44.9

113.7 83.4 65.4 30.0

LTIMindtree

18.8 5,509 158.8 187.0 217.7

9.9

34.7 29.5 25.3 7.2

Preferred midcap/smallcap stocks

Indian Hotels

11.6 710 11.8 15.3 18.1

31.3

59.9 46.5 39.2 9.0

Dixon Tech.

9.6 14,004 130.8 174.2 250.6

68.3

107.0 80.4 55.9 34.1

JSW Energy

8.8

437 13.7 17.2 18.2

28.1

31.9 25.3 24.0 3.4

BSE

8.0 5,121 88.5 137.9 167.7

55.5

57.9 37.1 30.5 18.9

Godrej Properties

6.8 1,967 51.3 64.4 64.8

54.8

38.3 30.6 30.4 3.1

Coforge

6.0 7,797 133.9 227.1 282.3

32.9

58.2 34.3 27.6 12.3

JSW Infra

5.5

229 6.7 7.7 9.8

15.4

34.2 29.6 23.4 5.3

Page Industries

5.3 41,064 613.6 709.4 841.0

17.9

66.9 57.9 48.8 26.1

IPCA Labs.

4.3 1,462 34.3 45.8 56.5

48.4

42.6 31.9 25.9 5.2

Metro Brands

3.6 1,137 13.7 17.1 21.8

16.0

83.3 66.4 52.2 14.1

Angel One

2.3 2,210 148.5 160.7 214.6

8.8

14.9 13.8 10.3 3.3

Note: LP = Loss to profit; Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap Stocks listed above are as per SEBI Categorization

MCap CMP

EPS (INR)

EPS CAGR (%)

PE (x)

PB (x)

ROE (%)

(USDb) (INR) FY25E FY26E FY27E FY24-26 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E

1.8 1.6 8.3 9.3 9.5

7.6 6.9 23.5 24.2 28.2

2.8 2.4 18.3 17.0 16.8

1.2 1.0 18.8 17.2 16.8

10.5 10.3 20.2 22.4 24.2

4.0 3.5 15.9 17.8 17.9

4.7 4.1 17.2 17.9 17.1

3.8 3.4 14.8 15.3 15.2

4.8 4.1 21.0 22.2 21.7

18.6 14.8 35.5 34.6 32.7

21.7 16.0 32.9 32.3 30.1

6.3 5.5 22.0 22.7 23.2

7.6

24.0

3.0

16.4

2.8

10.5

4.7

22.5

4.6

11.9

2.9

6.4

16.9

2.7

14.1

2.6

8.8

4.1

19.3

4.0

10.0

2.4

16.2

37.7

11.0

32.7

10.4

22.2

16.4

39.0

13.0

18.5

28.6

17.7

35.1

12.5

44.2

9.8

32.8

16.7

38.8

15.4

19.9

22.2

17.7

35.5

12.0

46.3

9.0

34.5

18.5

39.5

16.5

21.4

25.4

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Performance in line: BFSI fuels modest earnings growth



The MOFSL Universe’s sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT were +6%/+9%/+12%/+6% YoY

(vs. our est. of +7%/+9%/+11%/+7%). Excluding Metals and O&G, the MOFSL

Universe companies recorded sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of

10%/11%/16%/10% YoY (v/s est. of +11%/13%/15%/11%) in 3QFY25.

The modest earnings growth was driven once again by BFSI, with positive

contributions from Technology, Telecom, Healthcare, and Real Estate.

Conversely, earnings growth was hindered by global cyclicals, such as O&G

(OMC’s profit declined 18% YoY), which dipped 11% YoY, along with Cement (-

55% YoY), Chemicals (-12% YoY), and Consumer (-5% YoY).

The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded marginally by

40bp YoY to 17.4%, primarily aided by the Healthcare, Telecom, and Infrastructure

sectors but dragged down by the Cement, Consumer, Automobiles, and Chemicals

sectors.

The gross margin for two-thirds of the sectors contracted. Ten of the 15 major

sectors under MOFSL Coverage reported a contraction in gross margin YoY.

Exhibit 2: Sector-wise 3QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Universe companies (INRb)

Sector

(nos of companies)

Automobiles (25)

Capital Goods (11)

Cement (11)

Chemicals (12)

Consumer (20)

Consumer Durables (5)

EMS (7)

Financials (60)

Banks-Private (12)

Banks-PSU (6)

Insurance (6)

NBFC - Lending (22)

NBFC - Non Lending (14)

Healthcare (24)

Infrastructure (3)

Logistics (8)

Media (3)

Metals (10)

Oil & Gas (15)

Ex OMCs (12)

Real Estate (13)

Retail (21)

Staffing (4)

Technology (12)

Telecom (4)

Utilities (5)

Others (19)

MOFSL Universe (292)

MOFSL Ex Financials (232)

MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil (267)

MOFSL Ex OMCs (289)

Nifty (50)

Sensex (30)

LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss

Dec-24

3,195

946

561

159

878

175

150

3,032

922

887

715

437

879

167

2,844

7,785

3,609

154

669

125

1,967

696

694

688

25,851

22,819

15,222

21,675

14,952

10,494

Sales

Chg. %

YoY

-10

6.1

5.6

9.9

7.8

5.9

7.3

Var. over

Exp. %

-1

-2

-3

-1

-2

-4

-1

-4

-1

-8

-1

-9

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.8

0.2

Dec-24

406

106

202

1,700

694

579

352

211

552

952

720

448

374

249

126

5,661

3,961

4,156

5,429

3,655

2,865

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. %

-1

-5

-3

-31

-11

-1

-8

-1

-3

-1

-4

-12

-7

-2

-8

-13

9.2

-0.1

7.8

0.4

10.8

-1.7

9.8

-0.1

8.4

-0.2

9.2

-0.7

Dec-24

234

141

1,056

420

378

205

131

245

417

319

309

2,927

1,872

2,265

2,829

1,964

1,540

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. %

-2

-6

-4

-55

-17

-12

-15

-5

-6

-18

-1

-3

-5

-4

-11

-7

-8

-4

-6

-3

-5

-21

6.0

-0.7

3.6

-2.3

10.1

-0.6

7.1

-0.2

4.7

-0.3

7.6

-0.2

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 3: Sector-wise 3QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Mid-cap Universe companies (INR b)

Sector

(no of companies)

Automobiles (9)

Capital Goods (2)

Cement (4)

Chemicals (3)

Consumer (5)

Consumer Durables (2)

EMS (2)

Financials (17)

Banks-Private (4)

Banks-PSU (3)

Insurance (2)

NBFC - Lending (4)

NBFC - Non Lending (4)

Healthcare (11)

Infrastructure (1)

Logistics (2)

Metals (4)

Oil & Gas (5)

Real Estate (4)

Retail (4)

Technology (4)

Telecom (2)

Others (6)

MOFSL Mid-cap Univ. (87)

Ex Financials (70)

Ex Metals & Oil (78)

Sales

Dec-24 Chg. % YoY

335

156

111

644

146

248

133

396

475

1,359

139

126

169

292

4,564

3,920

2,730

-5

109

-3

7.0

6.5

12.1

Var. over

Exp. %

-2

-9

-1

-4

-5

-19

-2

2.8

3.4

-0.6

EBITDA

Dec-24 Chg. % YoY

369

201

106

963

593

768

-32

-8

17.8

21.6

14.5

Var. over

Exp. %

-3

-16

-4

-3

-2

-9

-12

-1

4.6

5.4

1.7

PAT

Dec-24 Chg. % YoY

213

116

-64

424

211

322

-61

-16

147

-27

Loss

323

26.1

42.2

27.7

Var. over

Exp. %

-2

-24

-18

-5

-6

-10

-25

-7

-24

-6

7.4

7.7

4.9

Exhibit 4: Sector-wise 3QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Small-cap Universe companies (INR b)

Sector

(no of companies)

Automobiles (6)

Capital Goods (5)

Cement (4)

Chemicals (9)

Consumer (4)

Consumer Durables (1)

EMS (5)

Financials (28)

Banks-Private (4)

Insurance (1)

NBFC - Lending (13)

NBFC - Non Lending (10)

Healthcare (7)

Infrastructure (2)

Logistics (5)

Media (3)

Oil & Gas (5)

Real Estate (7)

Retail (14)

Staffing (4)

Technology (2)

Utilities (1)

Others (9)

MOFSL Small-cap Univ (121)

Dec-24

176

120

209

269

148

125

1,671

1,462

1,402

Ex Financials (93)

Ex Metals & Oil (116)

LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss

Sales

Chg. %

YoY

-8

-19

-10

6.9

6.2

10.8

Var. over

Exp. %

-1

-6

-5

-2

-4

-1

-14

-4

-5

-3

-1.3

-1.1

-1.4

Dec-24

101

276

174

252

EBITDA

Chg. %

YoY

-15

-52

-2

-8

-18

-10

106

-7

2.6

-0.1

3.8

Var. over

Exp. %

-5

-10

-22

-12

-9

-13

-12

-3

-13

-12

-36

-9

-2

-4

-6

-6.2

-4.5

-7.9

Dec-24

-2

109

PAT

Chg. %

YoY

-28

-5

-3

-50

-48

-26

-84

-1

-21

216

-10

-17

-23.6

-5.5

-23.8

Var. over

Exp. %

-17

-19

968

-26

-4

-7

-37

-38

-1

-72

-4

-32

-19

-3

-9

-5

-19.8

-11.0

-22.3

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 5: PAT increased 6% YoY for the

MOFSL Universe

Exhibit 6: PAT was up 4% YoY for the

MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials

MOFSL Ex Financials

46 52

Exhibit 7: PAT rose 10% YoY for the

MOFSL Universe, sans Metals & O&G

MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil

14 11

17 10

-1

-11

-22

-6

-5 -9

Exhibit 8: PAT growth for the Nifty

Universe stood at 5% YoY

Nifty Universe

4 4

Exhibit 9: PAT for the Nifty Universe,

sans Financials, was up 3% YoY

Nifty Ex Financials

Exhibit 10: PAT grew 7% YoY for the

Nifty Universe, sans Metals & O&G

Nifty Ex Metals & Oil

35 33

-2

17 16

12 11

Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio unfavorable for FY26E



For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio has turned

weaker for FY26E as 37 companies’ earnings have been upgraded by >3%, while

137 companies’ earnings have been downgraded by >3%. The earnings

upgrade/downgrade ratio of 0.3x was the worst since 1QFY21.

The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was unfavorable, with 44% of the

companies missing our estimates, while 28% reported a beat at the PAT level.

Of the 25 sectors under our coverage, 3/12/10 sectors reported profits above/in-

line/below our estimates.

Exhibit 11: The upgrade-to-downgrade ratio trend for the MOFSL Universe – the worst since 1QFY21

2.7

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.4

Earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.3

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 12: Surprise/miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe at

0.6x in 3QFY25

MOFSL Universe PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)

3.4

2.4

2.3

Exhibit 13: Sectoral surprise/miss ratio at 0.3x, for the

MOFSL Universe, in 3QFY25

7.0

MOFSL Sector PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)

5.0

0.90.8

1.21.1

1.5

1.0

1.8

1.5

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.7

0.9

2.3

1.0 0.8

1.2

2.8

1.7 1.3

1.2

0.5 0.5 0.9

0.9

1.2

0.4

0.6

0.3

Exhibit 14: Two and three-year profit CAGR for the MOFSL Universe

EBITDA (INR b)

CAGR (%)

PBT (INR b)

CAGR (%)

PAT (INR b)

CAGR (%)

Sector

3QFY22 3QFY23 3QFY25 2-year 3-year 3QFY22 3QFY23 3QFY25 2-year 3-year 3QFY22 3QFY23 3QFY25 2-year 3-year

Automobiles

195

270

406

176

313

140

234

Capital Goods

106

Cement

-2

-10

-17

-3

-12

Chemicals

-13

-2

-21

-8

-21

-9

Consumer

165

188

202

157

177

189

119

132

141

Consumer Durables 11

EMS

Financials

1,142 1,421 1,700

758 1,047 1,400

564

782 1,056

Banks-Private

442

552

694

343

448

553

258

338

420

Banks-PSU

433

568

579

218

352

511

150

252

378

Insurance

NBFC - Lending

233

246

352

171

208

270

132

160

205

NBFC - Non Lending 18

Healthcare

138

152

211

109

117

171

131

Infrastructure

Logistics

Media

-7

-8

-6

-4

Metals

655

402

552

-6

498

231

377

-9

353

133

245

-11

Oil & Gas

730

747

952

561

458

625

418

337

417

Real Estate

Retail

Staffing

Technology

369

418

448

342

381

419

256

284

309

Telecom

233

249

374

-20

-37

-45

-59

Loss

Utilities

209

257

249

-2

104

127

130

Others

126

MOFSL Universe

4,227 4,545 5,661

2,860 2,974 4,074

2,092 2,150 2,927

Nifty Universe

2,716 3,076 3,655

1,930 2,184 2,744

1,411 1,571 1,964

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 15: Sales for the MOFSL Universe up 6% YoY (est. 7%)

31 29

0 -4

-29

-4

5 5 6 7 7 5

Exhibit 16: EBITDA for the MOFSL Universe up 9% YoY (est. 9%)

12 12

8 10

14 11

-5

-13

Exhibit 17: PAT for the MOFSL Universe at +6% YoY (est. 7%)

124

102

23 19 14

-6

50 45

Exhibit 18: EBITDA margin, excluding Financials, expanded

slightly by 40bp YoY to 17.4%

-1

-23

-39

Exhibit 19: MOFSL Universe (ex-Nifty) posted a profit growth of 7% YoY

150

154

-3

-5

-47

-13

-1

-9

-24

-33

Exhibit 20: Sales growth for the MOFSL Universe, excluding

Nifty companies, stood at 6% YoY

35 33

-1

-3

-31

-4

17 13

2 2 7 8 7 7

Exhibit 21: EBITDA was up 11% YoY for the MOFSL Universe,

excluding Nifty companies

-6 -12 -1

-3

-11-14

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Margin contracts owing to a high base



Sales for the MOFSL Universe companies grew 6% YoY (in line). Excluding Metals

and O&G, sales growth was in line at 10% YoY (in line).

Sectoral sales growth: EMS (87%), NBFC - Non Lending (39%), Real Estate (35%),

Retail (21%), and Capital Goods (17%).

The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded marginally by

40bp YoY to 17.4%.

Gross margins for two-thirds of the sectors contracted. In 3QFY25, 10 of the 15

major sectors under MOFSL Coverage posted a contraction in gross margin YoY.

Change in

GM bps YoY

436

177

109

-2

-22

-35

-36

-145

-153

-231

-310

-382

-917

Exhibit 22: Gross margin contracted in several sectors due to a high base

3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25

Others

44.3

41.2

43.7

39.0

43.9

41.8

47.6

42.1

43.5

45.3

46.6

Healthcare

63.0

62.8

62.4

64.0

63.7

65.1

65.6

65.9

67.2

68.1

Oil & Gas

20.8

21.8

16.8

17.0

18.4

22.5

25.2

25.0

22.2

22.7

20.9

Logistics

18.6

18.5

51.5

49.9

48.4

50.8

52.7

51.7

52.0

52.2

51.8

Automobiles

29.6

29.2

31.5

31.9

33.2

33.8

34.3

33.9

35.1

35.9

36.1

Consumer Durables 16.0

14.8

18.8

18.5

19.5

18.4

25.4

27.2

26.6

25.4

25.1

Chemicals

53.2

53.8

53.3

51.0

54.8

54.3

54.6

53.3

54.1

54.2

52.6

Utilities

0.2

27.1

27.2

33.1

31.3

47.8

46.8

49.0

49.3

47.0

Technology

35.2

34.5

33.1

33.6

34.4

34.5

33.9

34.0

34.4

34.3

35.1

Consumer

48.4

48.3

47.3

48.3

49.6

50.8

51.3

52.1

52.5

53.2

52.3

Retail

32.9

32.6

32.9

32.5

31.6

31.3

30.4

30.0

30.6

30.3

Metals

55.9

54.1

56.2

47.9

51.1

54.1

52.8

49.9

55.5

53.7

52.7

Real Estate

50.6

40.7

44.0

52.2

48.7

43.0

47.9

51.5

53.3

48.8

51.6

Cement

61.0

59.7

56.3

56.1

55.0

62.6

57.4

60.4

57.7

57.8

Infrastructure

41.4

36.0

40.7

71.4

39.1

36.6

36.7

40.2

51.7

33.0

39.5

Source: 213 companies that form part of the MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials, Telecom, Media, and Staffing

42.0

68.1

22.4

52.7

34.9

25.7

53.0

50.6

33.7

51.2

29.5

51.5

48.6

63.9

42.2

47.9

67.7

23.3

52.4

35.5

26.6

53.9

48.7

34.1

51.0

29.0

53.2

50.2

56.6

42.5

Exhibit 23: Several sectors recovered YoY in terms of operating margins

Dec-23

Sep-24

Dec-24

Contributions of Oil & Gas in profit pool improve



The BFSI contribution to the overall MOFSL profit pool accounted for more than

one-third of the profits. The contribution declined to 36.1% and was the lowest

in the last three quarters.

The Oil & Gas contribution to the profit pool saw an improvement to 14.3% in

3QFY25 – this was at a three-quarter high.

The Consumer contribution to the profit pool slipped to a three-quarter low of

4.8% in 3QFY25.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 24: Financials’ contribution was down in 3Q; it

accounted for more than 1/3 of the overall profit pool

Financials

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

36.4

32.7

32.2

33.9

34.6

36.1

36.9

PAT

(INR b)

39.4

36.1

Exhibit 25: The IT sector’s contribution to the overall profit

pool has been stable since the last few quarters

Technology

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

13.2

10.6

9.9

10.0

10.3

9.8

10.5

10.9

10.6

PAT

(INR b)

Exhibit 26: O&G’s PAT contribution to the overall profit pool

saw an uptick in 3QFY25

Oil & Gas

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

23.0

19.8

15.7

16.9

16.7

13.3

13.5

22.5

PAT

(INR b)

Exhibit 27: Metals’ PAT contribution to the MOFSL Universe

increased in 3QFY25

Metals

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

9.5

9.0

8.6

8.2

7.1

6.9

PAT

(INR b)

7.2

8.4

6.2

14.3

Exhibit 28: The auto sector’s contribution to the overall

profit pool declined for the third consecutive quarter

Automobiles

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

8.6

7.9

6.5

6.8

6.7

8.7

8.4

PAT

(INR b)

8.2

8.0

Exhibit 29: The consumer sector’s contribution dipped in

3QFY25 – to a three-quarter low

Consumer

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

6.1

5.5

5.0

5.2

5.4

4.8

5.5

5.2

4.8

PAT

(INR b)

PAT growth YoY in 9MFY25 (%)

The 9MFY25 snapshot: Small-cap profits dip

8.4



2.3

2.6



-17.9

Small

Cap

This market correction has coincided with a slowdown in earnings growth, as

the Nifty-50 has managed only a modest 4% PAT growth in 9MFY25 (following a

20%+ CAGR during FY20-24).

The MOFSL Universe delivered a 2.3% YoY earnings growth in 9MFY25.

Excluding Metals and O&G, it reported an 11.8% YoY earnings growth.

We categorized the coverage stocks based on market capitalization criteria

into large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap segments.

Notably, our large-cap

MOFSL

Univ.

Large

Cap

Mid Cap

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



universe saw a 2.6% YoY earnings growth in 9MFY25, and mid-cap delivered an

8.4% YoY growth, while small-cap posted a decline of 17.9% YoY in 9MFY25.

During 9MFY25, out of 25 sectors under our coverage, 18 sectors saw a YoY

growth in PAT, while seven saw a decline. EMS (+71%), Real Estate (+57%), NBFC

Non-Lending (+46%), Insurance (+24%), Consumer Durables (+24%), Healthcare

(+23%), PSU Banks (+23%), Staffing (+21%), and Capital Goods (+20%) were top

gainers. Conversely, Telecom (a loss of INR28b), Cement (-42%), Oil & Gas (-

33%), Chemicals (-12%), Media (-8%), and Consumer (-1%) were the laggards.

Exhibit 30: Sector-wise 9MFY25 performance (%) – Telecom, Cement, and Oil & Gas drag

9MFY25 PAT growth YoY (%)

71 57

24 24

23 23

21 20 16

-1

-8

-12

-17

-33

-42

Loss

Exhibit 31: Sector-wise contribution to 9MFY25 earnings growth (%) – Banks take the lion’s share

113

9MFY25 contribution to PAT growth (%)

-1

-3

-10

-31

-301

Exhibit 32: Nifty-50 stocks – 9MFY25 earnings growth YoY (%)

9MFY25 PAT growth YoY (%)

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Performance highlights of the Nifty constituents in 3QFY25

The top five stocks account for ~111% of the incremental profit YoY



Sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth for Nifty constituents was in line at +6%/+8%/

+12%/+5% YoY in 3QFY25. Excluding Metals and Oil & Gas, profits for Nifty

constituents were up 7% YoY (vs. est. of +7% YoY).

Among Nifty constituents, 20% exceeded our PAT estimates, while 22% missed

our estimates.

Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Ultratech Cement, Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, Bharat

Electronics, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, SBI Life Insurance, and Apollo Hospitals

delivered higher-than-estimated earnings.

In contrast, ONGC, Tata Motors, ITC, L&T, M&M, HUL, Nestle, Trent, Tata

Consumer, and Grasim Industries missed our profit estimates.

Seven Nifty companies witnessed earnings upgrades of over 3% in their FY26

EPS estimates, while 17 companies witnessed downgrades of over 3%.

Exhibit 34: Nifty EBITDA up 8% YoY (est. 9%)

Exhibit 33: Nifty sales up 6% YoY (in line) in 3QFY25

28 27

6 5 6 7 7 4

-5

-26

-4

-2

-12

17 16 16

22 21

10 11

5 5

Exhibit 35: Nifty PAT up 5% YoY (est. 5%)

109

35 29

Exhibit 36: Nifty EBITDA margin (ex-Financials) expanded

30bp YoY to 20%

26 21 24

10 11

19 12

4 4

-23

-34

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 37: BFSI, Metals, Oil & Gas, and Technology to drive FY26E earnings for the Nifty

Sector

Automobiles

BFSI

Capital Goods

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Logistics

Metals

Oil & Gas

Retail

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Others

Nifty

FY22

1,433

108

130

319

143

926

1,107

919

307

5,592

FY23

287

2,026

134

115

386

164

540

1,089

977

323

6,264

PAT (INR b)

FY24

FY25E

621

676

2,541

2,837

170

195

134

113

437

415

204

236

103

599

588

1,550

1,263

1,009

1,106

113

212

364

7,912

8,203

FY26E

728

3,158

243

152

459

272

126

851

1,496

1,219

271

422

9,506

FY27E

791

3,689

284

188

504

295

151

994

1,608

1,339

375

453

10,796

FY22

-57

169

198

Loss

-29

FY23

281

-11

-42

-2

Loss

249

Growth YoY (%)

FY24 FY25E FY26E

117

-15

-5

-2

-18

FY27E

Exhibit 38: Sectoral upgrades/downgrades for the MOFSL Universe

Sector

PAT (INR b) - preview

FY25E FY26E FY27E

1,088

355

260

686

5,038

2,026

1,700

104

1,052

156

624

176

1,412

2,047

1,732

180

147

1,374

517

287

14,503

1,245

428

327

114

764

5,895

2,361

1,943

129

1,275

188

703

212

1,642

2,216

1,889

195

187

1,521

184

553

384

16,776

PAT (INR b) - review

FY25E FY26E FY27E

968

274

167

585

4,421

1,782

1,593

833

126

518

140

995

1,657

1,393

114

104

1,220

431

154

11,943

1,070

341

237

662

5,002

1,978

1,712

107

1,054

151

613

174

1,359

2,053

1,701

184

139

1,359

510

257

14,246

1,195

406

306

113

738

5,823

2,321

1,936

132

1,255

180

695

210

1,592

2,176

1,840

203

175

1,502

166

545

345

16,385

Upgrade/downgrade (%)

FY25E FY26E FY27E

-1.6

-3.4

-6.5

-4.4

-2.7

-4.4

-7.9

0.3

0.0

2.1

-7.1

-1.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.4

-1.6

-3.1

0.8

-1.5

-1.4

-11.1

-4.7

-2.6

0.0

-20.9

-2.2

7.3

-0.6

-1.7

-4.0

-8.6

-3.0

-3.5

-6.8

-5.2

-0.7

-2.4

0.7

3.0

0.2

-2.9

-1.7

1.5

-1.3

-7.2

-3.8

0.3

-1.7

2.2

-5.7

-2.9

-1.1

-24.6

-1.5

-10.5

-1.8

-4.1

-4.9

-6.4

-0.8

-3.4

-8.5

-2.6

-1.2

-1.7

-0.4

2.3

-1.6

-4.0

-1.2

1.8

-1.0

-9.4

-3.1

-1.8

-2.6

4.1

-6.4

-2.8

-1.3

-9.9

-1.4

-10.2

-2.3

Growth YoY (%)

FY25E FY26E FY27E

7.0

19.2

-28.3

-2.5

-0.9

19.5

72.6

13.1

6.9

23.1

15.5

7.0

34.5

20.6

12.0

15.2

-6.8

14.2

-31.7

-12.3

17.1

11.5

41.7

9.3

2.8

9.2

2.8

10.6

24.1

41.8

35.8

13.1

21.7

49.2

13.2

11.1

7.4

24.2

26.5

19.9

18.4

38.0

24.5

25.1

36.6

23.9

22.1

61.7

34.0

32.2

11.3

361.2

18.2

66.4

19.3

11.6

19.3

29.1

24.5

11.5

22.0

46.3

16.4

17.3

13.1

23.4

19.1

13.4

20.7

20.9

14.1

17.1

6.0

8.1

10.1

26.0

19.8

10.6

310.9

7.0

34.4

15.0

Automobiles

983

Capital Goods

284

Cement

179

Chemicals

Consumer

601

Consumer Durables

EMS

Financials

4,408

Banks-Private

1,781

Banks-PSU

1,561

Insurance

NBFC - Lending

845

NBFC - Non Lending

128

Healthcare

519

Infrastructure

Logistics

142

Media

Metals

987

Oil & Gas

1,682

Excl. OMCs

1,413

Real Estate

128

Retail

109

Staffing

Technology

1,220

Telecom

-11

Utilities

441

Others

144

MOFSL Universe

12,010

Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 39: Nifty delivered 5% YoY profit growth in 3QFY25

Dec

2024

Sales

EBITDA

PBT

PAT

EBITDA Margin

Chg. Chg.

Dec Chg.

Var. Dec

Var.

YoY QoQ

2024 YoY

(%) 2024

(%)

(%) (%)

(%)

-3

-2

-4

-1

-2

-1

-3

-8

-1

-11

-2

-1

246

236

169

100

438

120

170

105

250

-9

-2

-1

-13

-11

-1

-15

-20

-11

-22

-5

-48

-4

-7

-6

-20

-2

-1

-3

-2

-3

-1

-6

-10

-18

-17

-1

-6

-4

-1

-8

-13

-1

-10

-4

-1

-4

226

157

286

167

218

121

-4

-2

-7

-13

-11

-22

-20

-24

-40

-62

-76

-13

-4

-25

-20

-9

-4

-1

-2

-3

-4

-1

-3

-9

-5

-8

-27

-4

-76

483

-1

-4

-9

-15

-1

-6

-2

-11

-2

-10

-2

-1

-4

169

118

185

124

167

121

-4

-10

-17

-18

-23

-24

-39

-66

-97

-12

-2

-21

-23

-8

-1

-4

-1

-9

-5

-1

-2

-3

-4

-9

-31

-26

-96

282

-3

-4

-14

-7

-1

-11

-4

-1

-2

-4

-2

-1

-15

-3

-6

-3

-9

-11

-13

-16

-17

-4

-2

-5

54.5

7.5

13.3

13.0

13.8

28.7

6.7

13.6

18.5

21.3

27.4

14.6

83.2

10.9

24.2

56.8

82.9

73.1

28.1

9.7

5.5

60.3

11.6

14.5

24.0

72.0

18.2

28.9

26.5

23.0

18.4

77.4

30.4

20.2

81.6

23.4

84.2

26.4

33.9

23.4

56.3

29.1

16.8

12.7

11.5

19.1

68.9

13.5

13.4

3.3

24.4

28.8

2.2

0.0

3.0

1.9

1.1

3.4

1.3

3.3

-0.3

2.3

1.6

3.0

-0.2

-1.9

5.7

4.1

-2.0

1.7

-0.8

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.5

2.3

0.2

3.7

-0.6

-0.9

4.5

2.9

0.1

-1.5

-0.2

-3.8

-1.7

-2.2

-1.1

6.9

-3.9

-2.6

-2.3

-2.4

-3.4

-7.5

-3.6

0.5

-4.8

0.6

0.3

Company

High PAT growth

Bharti Airtel

451

SBI Life Ins.

250

Tata Steel

536

-3

Hindalco

584

Apollo Hospitals

-1

Bharat Elect.

BPCL

1,131 -2

Tech Mah.

133

Trent

Wipro

223

Sun Pharma

131

-2

Med/Low PAT growth

M&M

305

Bajaj Finance

Titan Co.

177

Eicher Motors

SBI

414

ICICI Bank

204

Shriram Finance

Cipla

Larsen & Toubro

647

HDFC Life Ins.

168

Adani Ports

Maruti Suzuki

385

Hero Moto

102

-2

Infosys

418

Kotak Mah. Bank

Reliance Inds.

2,400

NTPC

414

TCS

640

HCL Tech.

299

Britannia

-2

Axis Bank

136

Bajaj Finserv

258

-7

Bajaj Auto

128

-2

HDFC Bank

307

HUL

158

-1

Negative PAT Growth

Power Grid Corp.

101

-5

-1

Dr Reddy’s Lab

ITC

188

-9

Nestle

-6

ONGC

337

-3

Coal India

358

-1

Ultratech Cem.

172

Tata Consumer

Tata Motors

1,136

Asian Paints

-6

IndusInd Bk

-1

-2

JSW Steel

414

-1

Adani Entep.

228

-9

Grasim Inds

Nifty Universe

14,952 6

Ex Metals & Oil

9,191

Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit

-11

-2

-1

190

-3

104

-1

130

-1

-2

1 3,655

-1 2,644

-14

-7

-4

110

117

-12

-42

-2

0 2,744

-2 2,072

-7

-9

-13

-17

-3

-2

2 1,964

1 1,512

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

MOFSL coverage revision from our preview stance: Cuts in mid- and small-caps severe



MOFSL Universe experienced a cut of 1.8%/2.3% for FY26E/FY27:

Our MOFSL Universe witnessed a cut of 1.8%

for FY26, led by Metals, Private Banks, Consumers, Cement, and Automobiles. Further, our small-cap and mid-

cap universes experienced a bigger cut at 5.9% and 3.4%, respectively. The large-cap universe witnessed a cut of

1.2%.

PAT (INR b) @ Preview

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

983

1,088

1,245

1,781

2,026

2,361

1,561

1,700

1,943

104

129

845

1,052

1,275

128

156

188

284

355

428

179

260

327

114

601

686

764

519

624

703

142

176

212

987

1,412

1,642

1,682

2,047

2,216

128

180

195

109

147

187

1,220

1,374

1,521

-11

184

441

517

553

144

287

384

12,010

14,503

16,776

9,912

11,673

13,292

1,555

2,048

2,503

543

782

981

PAT (INR b) @ Review

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

968

1,070

1,195

1,782

1,978

2,321

1,593

1,712

1,936

107

132

833

1,054

1,255

126

151

180

274

341

406

167

237

306

113

585

662

738

518

613

695

140

174

210

995

1,359

1,592

1,657

2,053

2,176

114

184

203

104

139

175

1,220

1,359

1,502

166

431

510

545

154

257

345

11,943

14,246

16,385

9,838

11,531

13,022

1,610

1,979

2,437

496

736

926

% Revision

FY26E

-1.7

-2.4

0.7

3.0

0.2

-2.9

-4.0

-8.6

-3.0

-3.5

-6.8

-5.2

-1.7

1.5

-1.3

-7.2

-3.8

0.3

2.2

-5.7

-2.9

-1.1

-24.6

-1.5

-10.5

-1.8

-1.2

-3.4

-5.9

Exhibit 40: Earnings revisions of MOFSL Universe from our preview 3QFY25

Sector

Automobiles

Banks-Private

Banks-PSU

Insurance

NBFC - Lending

NBFC - Non Lending

Capital Goods

Cement

Chemicals

Consumer

Consumer Durables

EMS

Healthcare

Infrastructure

Logistics

Media

Metals

Oil & Gas

Real Estate

Retail

Staffing

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Others

MOFSL Universe

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Small Cap

FY25E

-1.6

0.0

2.1

-7.1

-1.4

-1.3

-3.4

-6.5

-4.4

-2.7

-4.4

-7.9

-0.2

1.4

-1.6

-3.1

0.8

-1.5

-11.1

-4.7

-2.6

0.0

-179.1

-2.2

7.3

-0.6

-0.7

3.5

-8.6

FY27E

-4.1

-1.7

-0.4

2.3

-1.6

-4.0

-4.9

-6.4

-0.8

-3.4

-8.5

-2.6

-1.2

1.8

-1.0

-9.4

-3.1

-1.8

4.1

-6.4

-2.8

-1.3

-9.9

-1.4

-10.2

-2.3

-2.0

-2.6

-5.6

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Nifty EPS experiences a downward revision



Nifty EPS cut by 1.4%/1.8% for FY26E/FY27E:

The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 was cut by 1.4% to INR1,203,

largely owing to ONGC, HDFC Bank, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, and SBI. FY27E EPS was also reduced by 1.8% to

INR1,373 (from INR1,398) due to downgrades in SBI, HDFC Bank, ONGC, Tata Steel, and Reliance Industries.

The top earnings upgrades in FY26E:

Bharti Airtel (9.2%), Hindalco (4.2%), Tata Motors (4.1%), Kotak Mahindra

Bank (3.6%), and Maruti (3.5%).

The top earnings downgrades in FY26E:

JSW Steel (-9.5%), Tata Consumer (-6.5%), Tata Steel (-5.9%), Trent (-

5.5%), and Dr. Reddy’s Labs (-5%).

Current EPS (INR)

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

36.9

44.9

62.0

7.5

9.7

11.1

69.7

65.8

70.7

65.6

61.9

60.4

96.0

109.8

131.4

462.3

512.4

573.4

99.3

124.6

145.1

230.2

245.8

267.7

45.2

63.2

74.0

162.3

177.8

204.9

26.9

26.3

26.6

12.0

12.3

13.0

49.2

59.5

66.6

270.9

343.7

435.6

42.8

53.4

63.8

56.8

67.4

70.5

50.6

61.0

67.9

138.0

152.0

166.2

44.2

52.6

63.6

66.3

71.7

82.0

17.9

18.9

19.9

90.5

103.8

117.2

106.2

135.4

156.5

47.7

58.5

70.0

89.2

97.3

112.6

20.4

25.4

27.6

82.1

110.4

136.5

63.4

70.0

77.5

61.7

61.2

68.2

287.3

329.0

377.6

63.7

70.0

77.7

44.1

49.3

54.1

75.1

97.2

116.0

88.7

95.4

109.4

32.7

36.7

41.1

100.3

121.0

156.8

222.0

298.6

380.3

44.6

50.3

57.4

6.7

7.8

9.4

36.8

44.4

45.7

16.1

17.4

18.7

84.6

89.8

104.2

64.7

74.4

68.2

21.2

24.4

27.4

45.0

61.4

78.2

3.4

11.2

16.0

14.5

17.7

20.1

17.0

61.7

82.8

1,047

1,203

1,373

EPS Upgrade / Downgrade (%)

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

6.2

9.2

8.4

-10.4

4.7

8.6

1.1

4.2

-4.4

0.0

4.1

-6.6

2.3

3.6

4.2

6.6

3.5

2.2

-1.9

3.3

2.8

1.1

2.3

2.9

-5.5

1.7

6.3

1.3

1.1

5.1

-4.6

1.0

-0.7

5.0

0.4

0.3

-0.3

0.4

-1.2

2.4

0.2

-1.0

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

2.3

-0.3

-2.1

-0.7

-1.7

-0.7

-0.6

1.1

-0.9

-0.4

-3.3

-1.1

-1.0

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-4.4

-1.3

-2.4

-2.9

-1.3

-1.0

0.2

-1.5

-2.8

-1.1

-1.5

-1.3

-2.8

-1.7

-4.0

-0.3

-2.2

-3.3

8.0

-2.3

3.2

-1.7

-2.4

-2.8

0.6

-2.6

-2.5

-1.7

-3.4

-3.6

-5.6

-3.4

-2.7

0.8

-3.5

-2.8

-3.2

-4.1

-4.7

3.1

-4.2

-4.7

3.3

-4.2

-2.7

-3.5

-4.3

-3.5

0.6

-4.5

-4.9

-4.6

-3.7

-3.9

-4.6

-5.2

-1.0

-4.6

-3.9

0.6

-5.0

-0.9

-15.6

-5.1

-4.7

-4.2

-5.5

-13.6

-11.9

-5.9

-9.8

-1.6

-6.5

-3.8

-14.1

-9.5

-3.5

-0.3

-1.4

-1.8

EPS Growth (%)

FY26E

21.6

29.2

-5.7

-5.5

14.3

10.9

25.4

6.8

39.8

9.6

-2.0

2.3

21.0

26.9

24.7

18.6

20.5

10.1

19.0

8.2

5.7

14.8

27.4

22.7

9.1

24.5

34.4

10.4

-0.8

14.5

9.8

11.9

29.4

7.6

12.2

20.5

34.5

12.7

16.5

20.4

8.1

6.2

15.0

36.5

231.9

22.0

263.2

14.8

Exhibit 41: FY26E EPS revisions – Seven Nifty constituents saw upgrades of over 3%, while 17 witnessed downgrades of over 3%

Company

Bharti Airtel

HDFC Life Insur.

Hindalco

Tata Motors

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Maruti Suzuki

Mahindra & Mahindra

Hero MotoCorp

Tech Mahindra

Eicher Motors

BPCL

Wipro

Sun Pharma

Bajaj Finance

Titan Company

Coal India

Reliance Inds.

TCS

Shriram Finance

ICICI Bank

Power Grid Corp.

Britannia

Larsen & Toubro

Adani Ports

State Bank

NTPC

IndusInd Bank

Infosys

Cipla

Bajaj Auto

HCL Technologies

Hind. Unilever

Grasim Industries

HDFC Bank

Nestle

Apollo Hospitals

Ultratech Cement

Asian Paints

Bharat Electronics

ONGC

ITC

Axis Bank

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

SBI Life Insurance

Trent

Tata Steel

Tata Consumer

JSW Steel

Nifty (50)

FY25E

87.8

3.2

52.7

11.7

4.8

10.0

11.9

12.5

10.0

10.9

-57.6

18.0

18.7

15.9

9.0

-6.4

-1.6

9.3

15.5

13.6

6.8

2.0

12.4

15.5

18.7

-4.9

-28.9

0.1

17.5

4.0

10.0

0.8

-21.5

10.7

-20.2

60.8

-9.2

-23.0

21.7

-20.5

-2.0

4.8

2.0

12.0

54.0

24.3

1.2

-53.8

4.2

FY27E

38.2

14.6

7.6

-2.5

19.7

11.9

16.4

8.9

17.1

15.3

1.1

6.0

11.9

26.7

19.5

4.7

11.4

9.3

21.0

14.4

5.5

12.8

15.6

19.8

15.8

8.5

23.6

10.8

11.4

14.8

11.0

9.8

19.4

14.7

11.8

29.6

27.3

14.2

21.0

3.0

7.9

16.1

-8.3

12.5

27.4

43.6

13.3

34.1

14.1

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 42: We estimate a 10% CAGR for the Nifty free-float PAT over FY24–26

Company

High PAT Growth (20%+)

Tata Steel

Bharti Airtel

Trent

Apollo Hospitals

JSW Steel

Tech Mahindra

Bajaj Finserv

Bajaj Finance

Hindalco

Sun Pharma

Larsen & Toubro

Medium PAT Growth (0-20%)

Bharat Electronics

Adani Ports

Mahindra & Mahindra

Shriram Finance

Titan Company

HDFC Life Insur.

State Bank

SBI Life Insurance

Tata Consumer

Ultratech Cement

ICICI Bank

Maruti Suzuki

Eicher Motors

HCL Technologies

Hero MotoCorp

Kotak Mahindra Bank

TCS

Infosys

Bajaj Auto

HDFC Bank

Reliance Inds.

NTPC

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

Wipro

Britannia

Cipla

Power Grid Corp.

Hind. Unilever

Axis Bank

Adani Enterprises

Coal India

ITC

Grasim Industries

Tata Motors

PAT de-growth (<0%)

ONGC

IndusInd Bank

Nestle

Asian Paints

BPCL

Nifty (PAT free float)

Sales

CAGR %

24-26

-8

-7

-5

-11

EBIDTA Margin (%)

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

EBITDA

CAGR %

24-26

-6

-5

-30

PAT (INR b)

FY24

849

113

144

101

100

130

6,024

106

671

409

132

157

182

462

243

608

696

208

110

156

103

249

374

205

225

1,039

583

271

4,458

FY25E

1,051

212

168

155

118

146

6,436

103

119

796

466

145

173

191

502

263

673

685

198

127

166

104

261

350

201

241

717

463

115

4,701

FY26E

1,467

139

271

151

122

213

146

143

186

7,199

126

149

868

504

161

190

218

553

290

724

825

247

129

176

116

277

415

217

228

840

558

112

5,398

FY27E

1,842

200

375

202

147

270

157

160

215

8,064

151

174

120

1,005

112

576

180

211

261

604

322

105

831

919

267

137

185

127

322

435

234

222

890

575

106

114

6,161

PAT

Contbn to

CAGR %

Delta %

24-26

103

-10

-12

-2

-5

-7

-36

-10

100

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

FY26E earnings highlights: Global commodities, NBFC-Lending,

Private Banks, and Technology to drive the incremental earnings



The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7%/15%/19%

YoY in FY26E. Oil & Gas, Metals, NBFC-Lending, Private Banks, and Technology

sectors are projected to be the key growth engines, with 24%, 37%, 26%, 11%, and

11% YoY earnings growth, respectively. They are likely to contribute 57% of the

incremental earnings in FY26E.

Exhibit 43: Oil & Gas, Metals, NBFCs, Private Banks, and Technology to lead the incremental profits for FY26E (PAT, INR b)

197 138 118 103 103 95

395 364 220

34 32

24 21

Exhibit 44: Delta contribution to FY26E profit for the MOFSL Universe (%)

Delta Contribution (%)

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

MOFSL Universe saw a 9% earnings downgrade for FY26E on a

TTM basis

Telecom, Media, Retail, and Cement experience downgrades



Over the last one year, earnings revisions for the MOFSL Universe saw a cut of

9%.

NBFC Non-lending, Metals, Real Estate, Healthcare, Infrastructure, and Capital

Goods saw upgrades of 21%, 17%, 7%, 4%, 2%, and 1%, while Telecom, Media,

Retail, and Cement witnessed significant earnings downgrades of 47%, 28%,

27%, and 24%, respectively.

Exhibit 45: Metals and Healthcare saw major earnings upgrades, while Telecom witnessed downgrades over the last one year

% revision in PAT

-2

-6

-8

-9

-10

-11

-14

-18

-24

-27

-28

-47

Note: Comparable MOFSL Universe of 252 companies

Exhibit 46: Annual Sales/EBITDA/PAT estimates for the MOFSL Universe

Sector

FY25E

Automobiles

12,774

Capital Goods

3,835

Cement

2,307

Chemicals

665

Consumer

3,534

Consumer Durables

743

EMS

587

Financials

12,151

Banks-Private

3,670

Banks-PSU

3,566

Insurance

2,911

NBFC - Lending

1,721

NBFC - Non Lend.

283

Healthcare

3,488

Infrastructure

179

Logistics

642

Media

180

Metals

11,395

Oil & Gas

35,073

Excl. OMCs

19,156

Real Estate

626

Retail

2,390

Staffing

481

Technology

7,800

Telecom

2,692

Utilities

3,170

Others

2,595

MOFSL Universe

107,310

Sales

FY26E

13,905

4,367

2,691

754

3,869

848

775

13,684

4,055

3,869

3,384

2,046

330

3,899

215

752

200

12,982

33,721

18,967

752

2,808

547

8,430

3,069

3,476

3,026

114,769

FY27E

15,235

4,957

3,009

853

4,251

975

993

15,781

4,680

4,331

3,926

2,458

385

4,332

255

885

217

14,001

34,931

19,867

864

3,284

622

9,138

3,408

3,690

3,521

125,202

Growth YoY (%)

EBITDA

Growth YoY (%)

PAT

Growth YoY (%)

FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E FY25E FY26E FY27E

10 1,702 1,860 2,070 5

968 1,070 1,195 7

440 522 601

274 341 406

310 436 540 -18 41

167 237 306 -28 42

121 154 185

113

-2

830 922 1,022 1

585 662 738

-1

107

15 6,946 7,823 9,137 14

17 4,421 5,002 5,823 13

15 2,769 3,092 3,627 10

17 1,782 1,978 2,321 7

12 2,484 2,711 3,078 14

14 1,593 1,712 1,936 23

133 165 203

107 132

20 1,404 1,668 2,007 17

833 1,054 1,255 7

155 186 222

126 151 180

842 960 1,063 20

518 613 695

-6

244 290 339

140 174 210

-4

-12 21

-7

8 2,132 2,635 2,963 13

995 1,359 1,592 14

-1

-4

4 3,748 4,293 4,570 -19 15

6 1,657 2,053 2,176 -32 24

-1

5 3,038 3,489 3,757 -4

8 1,393 1,701 1,840 -12 22

170 235 265

114 184 203

257 312 371

104 139 175

8 1,758 1,961 2,164 7

10 1,220 1,359 1,502 9

11 1,364 1,562 1,751 19

166

LP 361 311

6 1,148 1,314 1,421 9

431 510 545

439 558 693

154 257 345

9 22,663 26,101 29,473 5

13 11,943 14,246 16,385 3

Source: MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

SECTOR-WISE:

Highlights / Surprise / Guidance

AUTOS: Near-term outlook remains weak, both in domestic and exports



Weak auto growth outlook amid mixed segment performance:

The auto segment (excluding tractors) saw ~3%

YoY growth in domestic volumes during the quarter, with rural demand outpacing urban. The PV segment led

the growth at ~4.5% YoY, driven by ~11.5% YoY/2% YoY increase in SUV/van volumes, while passenger car

volumes declined 8% YoY. This growth was partly fueled by festive season discounts and new launches. While

demand remained stable, below-normal inventory is likely to drive a wholesale push in 4Q. The recent budgetary

support by the government in terms of the income tax cut for the middle-income class is expected to boost

demand for both 2Ws and PVs in FY26E. CV demand remained sluggish, with overall volumes up just 1% YoY—

MHCVs declined 1% YoY, while LCVs grew 3% YoY. Even within MHCVs, growth was largely driven by the bus

segment, while goods segment saw a 5% YoY decline. Given the government’s recent shift in focus from “capex”

to “consumption”, demand is likely to remain subdued at least in the near term. Tractors also saw a trend

reversal, with volumes up ~14% YoY growth, supported by strong rural demand, and this momentum is likely to

sustain in the coming quarters as well.

Export growth on low base; demand outlook remains uncertain:

2W and PV export volumes grew ~29% and

~19% YoY, respectively, albeit on a low base. While the quarter showed some improvement for most companies,

the overall demand outlook remains uncertain. 2W demand is seeing revival in emerging markets, whereas PV

demand remains weak in developed markets. PV demand remains weak in EU but appears relatively better in

North America. While some near-term recovery is visible in certain regions, a broad-based rebound remains

distant. This could prolong challenges for ancillary firms with a global presence. However, 2W OEMs like BJAUT

and TVSL provided positive commentary, citing a demand recovery in key markets such as Africa, LatAm, the

Middle East, and encouraging developments in parts of Asia.

For our coverage universe (excluding CIEINDIA), total revenue grew ~7% YoY, whereas EBITDA/PAT declined

1%/2% YoY. While revenue was in line with expectations, EBITDA and PAT were lower due to an adverse FX

impact, higher festive season discounts, and increased marketing expenses, particularly for OEMs. Consequently,

EBITDA margin contracted by 100bp YoY to 12.7% (est. 13.2%). For OEMs, revenue grew ~7%, while EBITDA/PAT

fell 1%/2% YoY. For ancillaries, revenue rose ~8% YoY, while EBITDA fell 2% YoY and PAT flattish YoY.

Revenue in line, profitability under pressure due to high operating costs and adverse FX:

For our coverage

universe (excluding CIEINDIA), total revenue grew ~7% YoY, whereas EBITDA/PAT declined 2%/3% YoY. While

revenue was in line with expectations, EBITDA and PAT were lower due to an adverse FX impact, higher festive

season discounts, and increased marketing expenses, particularly for OEMs. Consequently, EBITDA margin

contracted by 120bp YoY to 13% (est. 13.6%). For OEMs, revenue grew ~7%, while EBITDA/PAT fell 1%/2% YoY.

For ancillaries, revenue rose ~8% YoY, while EBITDA/PAT fell 8%/9% YoY.

Stable quarter ahead with margins likely to remain stable:

The 3QFY25 earnings calls suggest that while

tractors are likely to maintain their momentum, demand for 2Ws, PVs and CVs is likely to grow in low to mid-

single digits in 4Q. Most companies have indicated that input costs are likely to remain stable QoQ. Hence,

margin trends would largely depend on operating leverage benefits and discounting trends in Q4. Ancillaries,

particularly those with global exposure, are likely to continue to face challenges from uncertain demand in

certain export markets. Overall, profitability for domestic-focused companies is likely to remain steady, but the

same for export-focused companies is likely to be under pressure, like in 3Q.

Several EPS downgrades amid demand moderation:

With no strong recovery in demand across segments and

an uncertain export outlook, a majority of our coverage companies (~14 out of 25) saw earnings downgrades in

3QFY25. Among OEMs, FY26E EPS downgrades were observed in Hyundai (-9%) and Escorts (-10%). In the auto

ancillary space, several companies saw downward revisions, including ARENM (-7%), Exide (-13%), Samvardhana

Motherson (-15%), BOS (-8%), Endurance (-6%), BHFC (-17%), Sona Comstar (-5%), Apollo Tyres (-9%), Balkrishna

(-6%), MRF (-10%), Motherson Wiring (-6%), Tube Investments (-9%), and Craftsman (-20%).

Valuation and view:

After the recent stock price correction over the last quarter, we expect the sector to regain

investor interest. The PV segment, having undergone a base correction this fiscal, is poised for a gradual demand

recovery from FY26 onward. Given this outlook and relatively attractive valuations, we continue to favor PVs

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

over 2Ws. MSIL remains our top pick in autos, followed by MM and Hyundai. Among ancillaries, we prefer ENDU,

HAPPYFORG and MOTHERSO.



Surprises:



Misses:

ARENM, BHFC, EIM, ESCORTS, EXID, HYUNDAI, MSUMI, MRF, TTMT

Guidance highlights:



MSIL:

3Q marked the company’s best-ever performance, led by festive momentum and higher discounting. This

resulted in 3.5% retail growth for MSIL over 9M. The company expects to deliver similar retail growth in 4Q.

Rural (+15%) is performing better than urban (+2.5%) for MSIL. MSIL continues to witness strong growth across

many export regions, including Africa, LatAm, ME, and ASEAN.



MM:

Auto –

Its market share in the below-3.5T PikUp segment improved 230bp YoY to 51.9%. Management is

hopeful of a demand recovery in the PikUp segment in the coming quarters, despite the current slowdown.

Tractors –

Given strong rural sentiment led by favorable indicators, management expects the tractor industry to

grow by 15%+ in 4Q, resulting in 10% growth in FY25E. While management has refrained from providing

guidance for FY26, it expects the industry to post growth in FY26 as well.



Hyundai (HMI):

HMI expects stability in export markets in the coming quarters. Growth drivers: 1) Hyundai India

is an export hub for Latin America, the Middle East and Africa; 2) HMI intends to evaluate global export

opportunities for Creta EV; and 3) Exter left-hand drive should see huge opportunities in key markets.

Management expects the domestic PV industry to post low-single-digit growth in CY25 as well.



TTMT:

JLR -

Management has maintained its EBIT margin guidance for FY25 at 8.5%. This translates into a 10.2%

EBIT margin for 4Q (vs. 9.2% YoY) – which we think is a tough ask, especially in the current adverse macro in its

key markets.

CV -

It believes there are positive tailwinds for the sector, which include improving fleet operator

profitability, led by improving utilization levels and higher freight rates.

PV -

It expects the PV industry to post

2% YoY growth in FY25E, in line with the trend for 9M. TTMT PV business was able to improve market share by

70bp on a QoQ basis in retail terms in 3Q. Dealer inventory has now been reduced to less than 25 days.



AL:

While the company has good visibility for the next six months, management is hopeful that all segments

within the CV industry will post growth in FY26. Management has also indicated that it continues to make good

progress toward its medium-term targets, which include: 1) a 35% share in MHCV, 2) mid-teens EBITDA margin,

3) strong growth in non-CV businesses, 4) leadership in alternate fuels, and 5) value unlocking in subsidiaries.



BJAUT:

Domestic 2W -

Management expects the industry to post 6-8% growth in the near term. Given its focus

on 125cc+ segment, BJAUT targets to outperform industry growth.

Exports 2W -

It expects exports to grow 20%+

for the next couple of quarters. The fastest-growing markets for BJAUT are Latin America (+30% YoY) and

ASEAN. Even Africa has recovered, with Nigeria now clocking close to 30k units per month.



HMCL:

After the festive season, 2W demand saw a temporary slowdown but is expected to pick up in the

upcoming wedding season and March festivities. It expects this momentum to continue even in FY26, given

positive rural sentiment.



TVSL:

Expects growth momentum to continue in FY26. The 2W retail market grew ~9% YoY in FY25YTD, with

rural growth slightly higher at ~10%. Healthy reservoir levels, improved crop outlook, and higher infrastructure

investments are expected to support demand going forward.

Exports:

During 3Q, Africa showed improvement,

with expectations for further growth in 4Q. LATAM continued to perform well, with consistent MoM growth.



EIM:

Domestic -

Management has indicated that it will continue prioritizing growth and will start shortlisting

products that need marketing support to drive growth. It intends to push brand-building activities for models

like Hunter and Guerilla to drive demand.

Exports-

While sentiment in export markets remains weak,

management maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for export growth in FY26.



BHFC:

CV -

The Indian CV market is expected to post slightly better growth QoQ in 4Q, while FY26 is likely to be

flat. Demand for US Class-8 CV is projected to grow 10% in FY26, largely back-ended. Uncertainty remains

regarding potential tariff changes.

Global demand:

Weakness in the EU and the US persists due to the industry

transition to EVs and economic uncertainty.



BIL:

The management has maintained its guidance of minor volume growth in FY25. The market scenario

remains challenging. While volumes during the quarter grew despite channel de-stocking, management clarified

that there are still no major market share gains.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 45: Key operating indicators

FY25

1,224

1,464

1,212

566

186

344

140

111

Volumes ('000 units)

YoY (%)

FY24

FY25

1,201

2.0

1,222

1,460

0.3

1,520

1,101 10.1 1,228

501

13.0

542

191

-2.4

192

292

17.8

301

-0.4

139

0.9

131

114

-2.4

-1.4

19.4

1.5

6.1

228

5,610

QoQ

(%)

0.2

-3.7

-1.3

4.6

-2.9

14.0

14.4

7.1

14.4

1.7

19.5

1.1

1.0

FY25

20.2

14.5

11.9

11.6

11.3

14.6

12.2

7.6

14.2

12.8

24.9

8.8

13.2

EBITDA Margins (%)

Adj PAT (INR M)

YoY

2Q QoQ

YoY

QoQ

FY24 (bp) FY25 (bp) FY25

FY24

(%)

FY25

(%)

20.1

20.2 -10 21,087 20,419 3.3 22,160 -4.8

14.0

14.5

12,028 10,734 12.1 12,035 -0.1

11.2

11.7

6,185 5,934

4.2 6,626 -6.7

11.7

-10

11.9 -30 35,250 31,300 12.6 39,068 -9.8

12.9 -160 12.8 -150 11,607 14,252 -18.6 13,755 -15.6

13.0

160

14.3

30 29,643 24,897 19.1 38,409 -22.8

11.1

110

10.7 150 17,260 16,560 4.2 13,140 31.4

6.5

110

6.2

140 2,860 4,060 -29.6 2,290 24.9

16.2 -200 11.7 240

375

592 -36.7 283

32.5

12.0

11.6 120 7,617 5,804 31.2 6,933 9.9

27.5 -260 26.3 -130 11,705 9,960 17.5 11,003 6.4

27.5 -260 26.3 -130 10,562 9,137 15.6 10,099 4.6

8.0

7.1

160 3,010 2,110 42.6 2,090 44.0

12.8

13.1

20 135,123 142,798 -5.4 149,990 -9.9

** PBT instead of PAT; JLR in GBP m; Source: MOFSL, Company

Bajaj Auto

Hero MotoCorp

TVS Motor

Maruti Suzuki

Hyundai

M&M

TTMT India CV**

TTMT India PV**

TTMT (JLR)

Ashok Leyland

Eicher(Consol)

Eicher - RE

Eicher - VECV

Aggregate **

272

228

5,663 5,336

Exhibit 46: Aggregate EBITDA margin for OEM expanded

10bp QoQ to 13.2%, led by a better mix and favorable Fx for

2Ws

Aggregate (excl JLR)

12.0

11.0

7.5

8.2

8.4

9.9

9.2

9.9

11.2

12.8 13.4

13.2

Exhibit 47: Gross margins for OEMs coverage universe

steady QoQ, amid stable RM costs

73.1

75.1

73.2

58.8

Agg RM cost (%, Ex JLR)

75.4 75.5 73.7

72.4

75.6

74.0

73.7

11.5

71.5

11.7

12.8

13.3 13.1

75.4

72.4

70.9 71.5

Revised EPS Estimates (INR)

Rev

BJAUT

287.3

HMCL

230.2

TVSL

52.5

EIM *

162.3

MSIL *

462.3

HYUNDAI*

65.3

99.3

TTMT *

65.6

9.9

ESCORTS

86.6

ARE&M

51.4

EXID

13.1

BOSCH

695

ENDU*

8,230.9

BHFC*

21.0

MOTHERSO *

5.2

SONACOMS*

9.7

CEAT*

119.5

APTY *

20.7

BIL

88.4

MRF

4,082.5

MSUMI

1.4

TIINDIA*

44.4

CRAFTSMA*

81.5

HAPPYFORG*

27.9

* Consolidated; Source: Company, MOFSL

FY25E

Old

292.3

227.6

53.5

160.2

461.1

67.3

101.3

65.6

9.3

102.0

54.6

13.9

722

8,465.0

28.0

5.1

9.8

131.0

21.5

85.0

4,423.8

1.4

46.0

120.1

28.7

Chg (%)

-1.7

1.1

-1.9

1.3

0.3

-2.9

-1.9

0.0

6.8

-15.1

-5.9

-5.3

-3.8

-2.8

-24.9

2.3

-1.8

-8.7

-3.8

4.0

-7.7

-5.7

-3.5

-32.1

-2.9

Rev

329.0

245.8

64.4

177.8

512.4

68.9

124.6

61.9

11.7

102.7

55.4

14.2

785

9,991.5

32.6

5.9

10.7

170.3

27.7

102.8

4,532.7

1.6

58.7

153.8

35.3

FY26E

Old

337.1

240.3

66.1

175.8

512.4

75.6

120.6

59.5

11.3

113.8

59.6

16.3

855.8

10,612.5

39.5

7.0

11.3

176.1

30.3

108.7

5,040.9

1.7

64.2

193.3

36.4

Chg (%)

-2.4

2.3

-2.6

1.1

0.0

-8.9

3.3

4.1

3.6

-9.7

-7.0

-13.1

-8.3

-5.9

-17.4

-14.9

-5.3

-3.3

-8.7

-5.5

-10.1

-5.9

-8.7

-20.4

-3.1

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

CAPITAL GOODS: Execution broadly matches expectations



Healthy improvement in ordering for new-age segments:

Order inflow growth was healthier than expected,

particularly buoyed by the continued momentum in power T&D. Domestic ordering improved for LT, KEC, and

KPIL, while private capex-led ordering was weak for SIEM (excl. Energy), TMX and TRIV. The pipeline from

cement, steel, and petrochemicals is yet to fructify into firm orders, while select sectors such as power T&D,

renewable energy, data centers, real estate, and defense continued to witness healthy traction. The defense

sector pipeline is strong on various AoNs and DAC approvals, and companies expect order finalization in the

coming quarter.

Execution growth broadly meets expectations for key players:

Overall execution of our coverage universe (excl.

ABB) grew by 17% YoY (vs. our estimates of 19%) on the back of healthy opening order books. LT, SIEM, KPIL,

and TRIV saw largely in-line revenue growth. KEC saw slightly lower-than-expected execution owing to delays in

water payments. Positive surprise came from BHE and KKC, which saw healthy revenue growth, while KECI, TMX,

KOEL, and ZEN were noticeably weaker.

Flat margin performance:

With relatively benign commodity prices, margins remained largely flat for EPC

players, with FY26 poised to see a healthy recovery as legacy projects are largely completed. Product companies

(excl. ABB) saw a mixed quarter, with some companies reporting a miss on margins vs. our expectations owing

to lower volumes and weaker product mix. POWERIND, BHE, and TRIV reported healthy margin expansion, while

TMX and KOEL reported muted margins.

Exports continue to improve sequentially:

LT and TRIV reported a good uptick in international ordering. KKC

continued to witness a sequential improvement in export revenue, while on a YoY basis it grew on a low base.

Given the uncertainty around global trade wars, macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors, the export

trajectory needs to be monitored closely.

Top picks:

With the recent correction in stock prices, we remain positive on LT, BHE and KKC.

Surprises:

BHE, KKC

Misses:

KECI, TMX, KOEL, KPIL, ZEN

Guidance highlights:

Most managements were confident about a healthy tendering pipeline materializing into order finalization, which is

expected to pick up in 4QFY25, though the private sector ordering is still subdued.



LT:

Increased FY25 order inflow growth guidance to 15% and revenue growth guidance to over 15% while

maintaining core E&C margin guidance of 8.25%. The remainder of 4QFY25 has an order pipeline of ~INR5.5t.



BHE:

Retained FY25 revenue growth guidance of 15%, margin guidance of 23-25% and order inflow guidance of

INR250b.



KKC:

Maintained double-digit revenue growth guidance for FY25 and FY26 at 2x the GDP growth rate.



KOEL:

Maintained its aim of “2B2B” – to achieve USD2b in revenue in the next five years with margins in double

digits.



KECI:

Initial FY25 order inflow guidance at ~INR250b is on track to be surpassed, while revenue growth will be

slightly lower at 12-14%. Margin guidance of 7.5% was maintained.



KPIL:

FY25 revenue growth guidance was trimmed to 13-14% while reiterating PBT margin at 4.5-5% and NWC

below 100 days.



TRIV:

Domestic ordering is expected to pick up 4QFY25 onward, while export opportunities continue to be

strong.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 48: Aggregate order book seeing a steady build-up (INR b)

Order book (INR b)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 49: Aggregate revenue growth (%)

Capital goods revenue growth (%)

Exhibit 50: Aggregate EBITDA growth (%)

Capital goods EBITDA growth (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 51: Aggregate EBITDA margin (%)

Capital goods EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 52: Aggregate PAT growth (%)

Capital goods PAT growth (%)

225

3 3

25 22 17 36 35 27 25 19 19 15

9 22

-28

-77

Source: Company, MOFSL

CEMENT: Volume in line; EBITDA miss led by lower realization and higher opex/t vs. estimates



Volume grew ~8% YoY, while realization declined ~9%:

Cement demand grew across segments, including IHB,

infrastructure, and real-estate during 3QFY25. Aggregate sales volume of our coverage universe grew ~8% YoY

(in line), higher than the industry volume growth of ~5%, led by market share gains by leading players.

Conversely, cement realization declined ~9% YoY (up 1% QoQ) to INR5,258 (~1% below our estimate). ACEM

reported the highest volume growth of ~17% YoY, followed by UTCEM at ~11% and TRCL at 9%. In contrast, the

rest of the players under our coverage universe posted a volume growth in the range of 2-7% YoY, except SRCM

and DALBHARA, which posted a volume decline of ~1-2% YoY. Aggregate revenue (excl. GRASIM) declined 2%

YoY to INR427b. GRASIM’s standalone revenue rose ~27% YoY to INR81.2b in 3QFY25, backed by incremental

revenue from its new growth businesses (Birla Opus and Birla Pivot combined revenue stood at INR15.9b).

GRASIM’s VSF/chemical segments’ revenue rose 6%/12% YoY.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Gross margin for our cement coverage dipped 2.8pp YoY to ~58%,

as the impact of weak realizations was partly

offset by lower variable costs (average variable cost/t declined ~3% YoY to INR2,228, +2% vs. estimates). Total

opex/t declined 3% YoY to INR4,486.

Aggregate EBITDA for coverage companies declined 30% YoY (including

GRASIM, which registered an EBITDA decline of 48%), and OPM dipped 5.7pp YoY to ~13% (1.3pp below our

estimate).

EBITDA of ACC/ACEM (adjusted for prior period incentive incomes) and GRASIM declined 48-49% YoY,

while that of BCORP/DALBHARA/JKLC declined 33-34%. EBITDA of JKCE/TRCL/SRCM declined 21-29% YoY, while

EBITDA of UTCEM declined 11% YoY. ICEM reported an operating loss of INR1.9b vs. EBITDA of INR490m in

3QFY24.

Avg. EBITDA/t declined 34% YoY to INR772 (vs. estimated INR842).

Aggregate PAT declined 54% YoY (excl. Grasim, PAT down ~48%):

Aggregate interest/depreciation expenses for

our coverage universe grew 19%/33% YoY, and other income increased 12% YoY.

Aggregate profit declined 48%

YoY to INR21.9b for cement companies (profit down 54% YoY to INR20.2b, including GRASIM as it posted loss

of INR1.7b vs. PAT of INR2.4b in 3QFY24).

Profits declined ~97% YoY for TRCL, ~69-78% for BCORP/DALBHARA/

SRCM, ~33-57% for ACC/ACEM/JKCE/JKLC and ~17% for UTCEM. ICEM/GRASIM reported net losses during the

quarter.

Several earnings downgrades due to weak margins:

We cut our aggregate EBITDA estimates by ~6% for

FY25/FY26 (each) and ~4% for FY27, but there were no rating downgrades. We saw EBITDA downgrades for

FY25/26 in ACC (18%/13%), ACEM (22%/18%), BCORP (~5% each), DALBHARA (7%/4%), TRCL (10%/8%) and

GRASIM (22%/11%). We maintained our EBITDA estimates for UTCEM, SRCM, JKCE and JKLC.

Top picks:

UTCEM is our preferred pick among largecaps and JKCE in the midcap space.

Surprises:

SRCM, JKCE and JKLC

Misses:

ACC, ACEM, BCORP, DALBHARA, and TRCL

Guidance highlights:

Most of the management teams guided for industry demand growth of ~4% YoY in FY25 and ~7-8% YoY in 4QFY25.

We believe demand growth will be driven by pent-up demand, pick-up in construction activities, infrastructure

projects, and stable strong demand from IHB and real estate segments. Further, rural demand is estimated to be

positive given the good monsoon. Improvement in cement demand also led to price increases in 3QFY25. Current

cement prices are up ~1-2% as compared to 3QFY25 average. North, west and central regions saw higher price

improvements.



UTCEM:

Guided for double-digit volume growth in FY26 vs. industry growth of ~6-7% YoY. Capacity utilization is

estimated at ~80-85% on expanded capacity in FY26. Its domestic grey cement capacity is expected to increase

to ~185mtpa by FY25 end (including ICEM and Kesoram). Consolidated net debt stood at INR161.6b, including

the cost of the open offer for ICEM. Net debt is expected to peak in FY26 and start reducing thereafter.



ACEM:

Higher consolidated volumes were driven by inorganic growth (Sanghi and Penna Cement). Both (Sanghi

and Penna Cement) are in the transition and ramp-up phase, and ACEM is implementing various cost-reduction

measures. It expects plant capacity utilization for both companies to increase 70%+ in FY26 vs. sub-40%

currently.



DALBHARA:

It indicated cement demand recovery was below expectations due to slippages in government

capex, unseasonal rains, and state elections. Cement prices rose in Dec’24 and have sustained so far. It expects

additional price hikes in 4QFY25. However, heightened competitive intensity may cap the potential for higher

growth. It focuses on cost reduction (targeting cost savings of INR150-200/t through internal measures by

FY27E).



JKCE:

It expects volume growth of ~7-8% in 4QFY25 and ~10% in FY26. In FY25, it will realize cost savings of

INR40-50/t and the rest of INR75/t will be realized over the next few quarters. JKCE announced the acquisition

of Saifco Cements, which has a grinding capacity of 0.42mtpa in Srinagar, and EBITDA/t of this plant is

INR1,500/t.



JKLC:

It anticipates ~8% volume growth in 4QFY25, aligning with industry growth estimates of ~6-8% in 4QFY25.

It indicated that it is working on brand rejuvenation to improve its price positioning and expects these measures

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



will help to improve its cement prices by INR80-100/t. Capacity utilization at UCWL stood at ~57% on expanded

capacity in 3QFY25. It targets to ramp up capacity utilization at UCWL to ~65% in FY26.

BCORP:

It indicated that within regions, the North has outperformed, driven by better pricing and strong volume

growth. However, it faced challenges in Central India, its core market, where intense competition led to pricing

pressure. Mukutban plant’s capacity utilization stood at +60% and is expected to increase further. This plant’s

performance is improving QoQ and has started contributing positively to the company’s overall performance.

GRASIM:

The paint business under the Birla Opus brand continued to gain market share, led by the expansion of

the distribution network, strong brand visibility, and superior product quality. It has reiterated its target of

exiting FY25 with a high-single-digit market share for the paint business. Lyocell (specialty Fibre) capacity at

Harihar, Karnataka, will be increased by 110ktpa, with the first phase of 55ktpa expansion set to be completed in

the next two years at a capex of INR13.5b.

Exhibit 54: Blended realization was down 9% YoY in 3QFY25

Realization (INR/t)

Exhibit 53: Sales volume grew ~8% YoY in 3QFY25

Aggregate Vol (mt)

(3) 2

15 9 10 10 16 13

7 11 4

YoY change (%)

66 72 61 59 64 74 69 64 70 82 80 73 75 91 83 74 81

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 55: Aggregate EBITDA declined 28% YoY in 3QFY25

Aggregate EBITDA (INR b)

43 43 51

-6

-20 -18

-26

-46

-6 -1

YoY Change (%)

-5

-30 -28

Exhibit 56: Average EBITDA/t was down 34% YoY in 3QFY25

Average EBITDA (INR/t)

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *EBITDA excluding Grasim

Source: Company, MOFSL

CHEMICALS: EBITDA declines sequentially; margin pressure persists



Overall performance:

Revenue was in line with our estimates (ATLP beat our estimates while FINEORG, NFIL,

NOCIL, TTCH, and VO missed our estimates). EBITDA was below our estimates (AACL, CLEAN, NFIL, and SRF beat

our estimates while DN, FINEORG, GALSURF, NOCIL, PI, and TTCH missed our estimates). Adj. PAT was below our

expectation (AACL, CLEAN, NFIL, and SRF beat our estimates, while the rest were below our estimates; ATLP in

line). Aggregate revenue increased 6% YoY to INR159.2b, EBITDA declined 1% YoY to INR26.9b, and adj. PAT

declined 12% YoY to INR13.5b.

Aggregate gross margin for our coverage universe declined 20bp YoY in 3QFY25 (vs. a decline of 40bp YoY in

2QFY25). AACL, ATLP, NFIL, TTCH, and VO saw gross margin expansions YoY, while the rest of the companies saw

a contraction. Aggregate EBITDA margin contracted 130bp YoY (decline of 160bp YoY in 2QFY25). AACL, ATLP,

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



NFIL, and VO reflected an expansion in their EBITDAM YoY, while the remaining companies in our coverage

universe experienced a YoY contraction.

Ratings and earnings revisions:

There has been one rating change for our coverage universe after the 3QFY25

earnings, with SRF upgraded to BUY (from Neutral) with a TP of INR3,540 on an SoTP basis, given the strong

business outlook despite past underperformance. We have revised down our estimates for FINEORG, GALSURF,

PI, TTCH, NFIL, NOCIL, and VO after the 3QFY25 earnings. AACL, ATLP, and SRF saw an upward revision in

estimates following the 3QFY25 earnings season.

Top picks:

SRF:

The Chemicals business (CAGR 29% FY25-27E) is recovering, driving margin expansion, while

Packaging (CAGR 14%) and Technical Textiles (CAGR 8%) are expected to show steady growth with improving

profitability.

ATLP:

With rising demand in 9MFY25, ATLP is driving growth through efficiency projects, capacity

expansions, and market share gains, including a 50ktpa liquid epoxy resins plant (INR8b potential), a stabilized

caustic soda unit (300tpd), and improved Anaven offtake.

VO:

VOPL’s new products (MEHQ, Guaiacol, Anisole, 4-

MAP, Iso Amylene) are likely to start in 4QFY25, driving growth, while VO, now India’s only double-integrated AO

maker post the VAPL merger, is expected to grow on the back of robust ATBS demand.

Surprises:

AACL, CLEAN, SRF

Misses:

DN, FINEORG, GALSURF, NOCIL, PI, TTCH

Guidance highlights:



CLEAN:

Around 3-4ktpa of sales volumes in HALS are expected in FY26, with a selling price of USD5.5-6/kg. For

BHT, the peak revenue guidance is INR600-800m, with all approvals expected in the next six months, followed by

an additional 1.5 years to ramp up to 70-80% utilization. The company is undertaking the production of

Barbituric Acid, an intermediate used in the production of pigment yellow. The pilot plant has been approved by

Sudarshan Chemicals and is expected to be commercialized within the next three months. With acetone prices

coming down, margin expansion is anticipated starting from 4QFY25.



DN:

Industry demand is improving, with international recovery leading and domestic demand expected to

normalize by 4QFY25. Agrochemical de-stocking is easing, polymer demand is strengthening with new projects,

and margin expansion is likely as feedstock costs decline. Agrochemical volumes are rising internationally, with

domestic demand expected to follow by quarter-end. Key projects, including Acetophenone and nitric acid, will

be commissioned in 1HFY26, while increased domestic Phenol supply may reduce imports.



GALSURF:

Softness in terms of performance is likely to continue in 4Q as well. Rural and urban spending will pick

up from 1QFY26. Structural story remains intact according to the management. Capex will be focused on

equipping the company for the future. Fatty alcohol prices are likely to remain stable in 4Q but may reach

~USD1,500/mt next year. Supply chain issues have eased compared to 1HFY25 and may ease further going

forward. Management has retained volume growth guidance of 6-8% for the next 2-3 years, along with

EBITDA/kg guidance.



NFIL:

Additional R32 capacity at a capex of INR840m is progressing as scheduled, with the commissioning

expected by Feb’25. AHF capex for INR4.5b is on schedule and expected to be commissioned by early FY26. The

Dahej Fluorospecialty product (Project Nektar) has a capex of INR5.4b, with revenue of ~INR5.2b spread over

two years (reaching closer to this peak by FY27). Around 40-50% of the revenue is expected to come in FY26.

NFIL has already secured the Fermion order book for CY25. Management expects to exit FY25 with an EBITDAM

of ~25% but has not provided guidance on the future margin trajectory.



PI:

The company maintains its guidance of single-digit revenue growth for FY25 and is cautiously progressing

toward achieving it. The pharma revenue guidance for FY25 remains unchanged from the previous quarter,

projected at ~INR2.5-INR2.75b. Management anticipates revenue growth to accelerate further in 4QFY25, driven

by the current order visibility.



SRF:

The management anticipates robust demand from agro in 4QFY25 with a significant performance

improvement over 3QFY25. Going forward, SRF anticipates to clock a revenue growth of ~20% in FY26. The

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



company expects positive traction from FY26 onwards in PTFE. For FY25 the company plans to incur a capex of

~INR15b, while future projects will have a capex in the range of ~INR15b-20b.

TTCH:

India, Asia, and the US are expected to continue their growth momentum, with the western parts of

Europe likely to be flat or experience a slight decline. Pricing in the domestic market has remained steady in

India, and the management expects the same in 4QFY25. Management expects volumes in 4QFY25 to be much

better compared to 3QFY25.

Aggregate Revenue (INR b)

153.1

170.0

172.8

163.6

168.2

158.2

155.4

150.0

156.7

163.4

168.2

159.2

Exhibit 57: Revenue for our coverage universe

122.6

130.4

140.4

Exhibit 58: Gross margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate Gross margin (%)

Exhibit 59: EBITDAM for our coverage universe

Aggregate EBITDAM (%)

Exhibit 60: EBIT margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate EBIT margin (%)

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 61: PAT margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate adj. PAT margin (%)

CONSUMER – FMCG: Largely in-line revenue print; deceleration in margins



Moderate demand trend continues:

Our coverage universe reported 6.8% YoY revenue growth (vs. est. 6.5%).

Excluding ITC, our consumer sector grew 6.1% YoY (est. 6.4%) as demand remained subdued. Volume growth for

most companies was limited to low- to mid-single digits (see Exhibit-1). Urban growth continued to moderate,

while rural demand sustained recovery. It was also reflected in Nielsen’s data—rural volume growth at 9.9% vs.

5% in urban. High palm oil prices impacted volume performance (grammage reduction), particularly for personal

wash. Higher LUP mix (even witnessed in urban) further impacted underlying volume growth. Winter portfolio

was also muted due to delay in season, impacted healthcare, HI, personal care categories. Paint companies were

affected by delayed monsoon and early festive season, which further impacted the industry growth trends.

Liquor companies saw strong growth, driven by new Andhra Pradesh liquor policy, healthy P&A demand, and

higher number of weddings in 2HFY25. Innerwear demand saw an initial festive boost but failed to sustain

growth momentum. Traditional channels remained sluggish, whereas emerging channels continued to drive

growth and improve the sales mix. Overall, in our coverage, seven companies posted double-digit revenue

growth, while both paint companies (Asian & Indigo) saw revenue decline. Overall, 19 out of 20 companies

reported revenue in line with estimates.

Gross margin pressure impacted EBITDA:

Rising commodity costs, particularly in the agri basket, combined with

insufficient price hikes, led to gross margin pressure across most categories and companies. With tighter

operating costs (particularly ad spending), companies could restrict margin pressure at the EBITDA level.

Companies have initiated price hikes to counter RM inflation, and full benefits of those hikes will be visible in 4Q.

Our coverage universe reported flat YoY EBITDA growth in 3QFY25 (vs. est. +2.5%). Excluding ITC, EBITDA

declined marginally by 0.3% (est. +1.4%).

PBT and PAT below expectations:

For 10 of the 20 coverage companies, PBT was either ahead of or in line with

our estimates, with a better-than-expected performance by PG and UNSP. Conversely, there were notable

misses by CLGT, GCPL, INDIGOPN, NESTLE, TATACONSUMER, UBBL and VBL. Aggregate PBT declined by 2.6% YoY

(est. +2.7%). Aggregate PAT declined 5.3% (est. +1.1%).

Outperformer (3Q):

UNSP, PAGE and PG

Under performer (3Q):

APNT, CLGT, GCPL, BRIT and VBL

Near-term outlook:

While the slowdown persists across consumer segments, demand trends are expected to

improve gradually, supported by income tax benefits, interest rate cuts, and gradual improvement in the macro

environment. We anticipate a steady recovery in volume growth in urban and rural areas. Companies are

focusing on traditional strategies to drive growth such as expanding distribution, launching new products, and

offering consumer incentives. Companies have implemented price hikes in 3Q and looking to take further

increases in 4Q to offset raw material inflation. Price hikes and expected volume pickup should improve the

revenue acceleration in ensuing quarters. Our top picks are HUL, GCPL, Dabur, and PAGE.

Guidance highlights:

Consumption trends remain weak. Rural demand is doing better than urban demand. Most

companies have started to take calibrated price hikes across categories to pass on RM inflation.



APNT:

The management expects revenue weakness to persist for at least two more quarters. The company is

targeting to achieve single-digit volume growth in the near term. APNT is more worried about industry

challenges than competition.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



BRIT:

The company is implementing strategic price hikes (2% in 3Q, further 2.5% in 4Q and 1.5% in 1QFY26) and

cost efficiency (~2.5% in FY26) to offset cost inflation. It has guided that EBITDA margin will be in the range of

17-18%. No major capital expenditure is planned, with only INR1.5-2b allocated for FY26.

DABUR:

Dabur had taken 3% price hike to offset inflation, but it was neutralized by trade schemes and

promotions. The company anticipates sequential improvement in demand and mid-single digit value growth in

4QFY25, driven by both pricing and volume growth. For FY26, the company aims to maintain margins, with a

potential for marginal improvement through cost initiatives and pricing actions.

HMN:

The impact of the 1.5-2.5% price increase is expected to reflect in 4Q, contributing positively to margins.

The company aims for high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EBITDA growth in FY25. The effective

tax rate stood at 8-9% in FY25 due to MAT credit, with the company anticipating a rate of 10% in FY26.

HUVR:

HUVR has implemented price hikes to mitigate the impact of raw material price inflation. It will continue

to raise prices by low-single digits if commodity prices remain at the current level. EBITDA to be maintained at

the lower end of 23-24%.

GCPL:

The

company has taken mid-single-digit price hikes in 3Q, with further increases expected in 4QFY25 to

offset palm oil inflation. Margins are expected to improve sequentially, with normalization expected in 1HFY26.

MRCO:

The company expects double-digit revenue growth (unlike other FMCG peers) in the medium term, and

has maintained its operating margin guidance at ~20% for FY25.

PIDI:

EBITDA margin is expected to be 20-24% in the medium term. It targets growth at 1-2x GDP in its core

categories and 2-4x GDP in its high-growth categories.

VBL:

VBL currently operates in 4 million outlets across India, out of a total of 12 million outlets. The company

aims to expand its presence by 10% annually. India business is expected to maintain margins at ~21% over the

long term. Management expects to incur a capex of INR31b for CY25. As of 31st Dec’24, about INR16.5b has

already been incurred through capital work in progress (CWIP) and capital advances.

Exhibit 62: Quarterly volume growth

Volume growth (%)

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Labs

Marico

Page Industries

UBBL

United Spirits

1QFY23

37.0

-2.0

-2.5

5.0

9.6

-6.0

6.0

26.0

3.0

-5.0

150.0

121.0

17.9

2QFY23

10.0

5.0

-2.5

1.0

-1.0

-5.0

4.0

20.0

1.4

3.0

1.0

23.0

8.3

3QFY23

0.0

3.0

-4.5

-3.0

-3.9

3.0

5.0

15.0

2.1

4.0

-11.0

4.0

-25.0

4QFY23

16.0

3.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

13.0

4.0

11.5

3.3

5.0

-15.0

3.1

-27.3

1QFY24

10.0

0.0

3.0

10.0

3.0

8.0

9.0

3.0

-11.5

-12.4

5.8

2QFY24

6.0

0.0

-1.0

3.0

2.0

4.0

2.0

5.0

9.0

3.0

-8.8

7.0

1.0

3QFY24

12.0

5.5

-1.0

4.0

-1.0

5.0

2.0

-2.0

11.0

2.0

4.6

8.0

-1.8

4QFY24

10.0

6.0

1.0

3.0

6.4

9.0

2.0

10.0

3.0

6.1

10.9

3.7

1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25

7.0

-0.5

1.6

8.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

4.0

5.2

-7.0

1.2

8.7

1.7

4.0

8.0

7.0

0.0

4.0

3.0

0.0

3.0

3.5

6.0

10.8

3.0

8.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2.6

6.7

4.7

5.0

8.0

3.5

-4.4

10.2

Source: Company, MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 63: Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth for 3QFY25

Company Name

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

HUL

Indigo Paints

ITC

Jyothy

LT Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Page Industries

Pidilite

Tata consumer

United Breweries

United Spirits

Varun Beverages

Revenue

85,494

45,926

14,618

33,553

10,495

37,684

1,58,180

3,426

1,87,902

7,045

22,748

27,940

47,797

12,476

13,131

33,689

44,436

19,984

34,320

36,888

3QFY25

YoY %

-6%

-3%

17%

15%

10%

17%

10 %

15%

38%

EBITDA

16,367

8,449

4,544

6,819

3,387

7,559

36,950

572

63,619

1,158

2,498

5,330

11,193

3,709

3,025

7,984

5,647

1,411

5,880

5,800

3QFY25

YoY %

-20%

-3%

-16%

-8%

-2%

-1%

20%

32%

-1%

-3 %

20%

39%

3QFY25

YoY %

11,284

-23%

5,823

3,228

-2 %

5,306

3,006

5,025

-14%

25,561

360

-3%

48,098

-10%

874

-34%

1,433

-5%

3,990

7,014

-10%

2,686

17%

2,047

34%

5,575

2,835

-18%

640

-24%

4,203

21%

1,858

41%

Source: Company, MOFSL

PAT

YoY (bp)

-89

-248

-19

-466

-19

-224

-108

-131

-210

-112

240

-234

-344

-90

-2

QoQ (bp)

161

208

415

-72

-46

125

-244

-52

414

-215

-824

370

283

-7

Exhibit 64: Gross and EBITDA margin expansion in 3QFY25

Companies

Staples

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

HUL

ITC

Jyothy

LT Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Tata consumer

Varun Beverages

Paints

Asian Paints

Indigo Paints

Pidilite

Liquor

United Breweries

United Spirits

Gross Margin

38.7%

69.9%

48.1%

70.3%

54.1%

51.3%

57.6%

49.8%

30.8%

49.5%

56.4%

64.8%

41.1%

56.1%

42.4%

46.6%

54.3%

43.1%

44.7%

YoY (bp)

-515

-226

-55

153

-175

-64

-330

-13

-178

-221

459

-273

-56

-116

-156

145

-86

131

QoQ (bp)

-280

137

-128

-40

-145

-28

172

-42

-156

-129

-24

191

-253

167

292

-3

-72

-47

EBITDA Margin

18.4%

31.1%

20.3%

32.3%

20.1%

23.4%

33.9%

16.4%

11.0%

19.1%

23.4%

29.7%

12.7%

15.7%

19.1%

16.7%

23.7%

7.1%

17.1%

-92

-366

-70

Source: Company, MOFSL

CONSUMER – QSR: Growth on a favorable base; store expansion continues



Gradual improvement in demand:

QSR companies experienced a slight improvement in demand trends during

3Q, particularly toward the end of the quarter. With a favorable base, same-store sales growth (SSSG) showed

an uptick. The revenue gap between dine-in and delivery has narrowed due to increased dine-in footfall.

However, weak underlying growth continued to impact operating margins, putting pressure on restaurant and

EBITDA margins for most brands. Enhancements in menu offerings and promotional activations have increased

footfalls. While delivery channels remain strong, dine-in is showing gradual improvement. Our coverage universe

posted revenue growth of 12% YoY (organic growth) in 3QFY25 vs. 6% in 2QFY25 and 4% in 3QFY24. Jubilant

delivered robust LFL growth of 13%, Westlife saw 3% SSSG and Sapphire PH posted 5% SSSG. Devyani KFC/

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Devyani PH/Sapphire KFC/RBA/BBQ registered same-store sales decline of 4%/1%/3%/1%/2%. The healthy pace

of store addition continued during the quarter.

Pressure on profitability:

With underlying growth remaining weak, companies witnessed an adverse impact on

their unit economics. Both restaurant margin and EBITDA margin saw YoY contraction.

Outperformer (3Q):

Jubilant Foodworks

Underperformer (3Q):

Devyani, Westlife

Guidance highlights:



JUBI:

JUBI aims for a ~100bp improvement in gross margin over the next three quarters, backed by cost

optimization initiatives and lowering discounting. The company maintains a payback period of 2-2.5 years for its

new stores as well.



Devyani:

Pizza Hut margin continued to see contraction, but management expects margin improvement in the

coming quarters, led by marketing cost optimization. KFC ROM can reach 19-20% with ADS of INR100k over the

next few quarters. Devyani is adopting some strategic measures to achieve the same.



Westlife:

A 50bp price increase was implemented at the portfolio level in Nov’24. GP improved sequentially

despite RM inflation led by efficient supply chain and cost initiatives. The company expects its gross margin to

revive to 70%+ levels in the near term. Management has guided for an 18-20% EBITDA margin by FY27.



Sapphire:

KFC’s restaurant margins are expected to remain ~18% in the near term. The company plans to open

70-80 new KFC stores per year. For Pizza Hut, management remains cautious about store expansion and plans to

add 20-25 stores per year.



RBA:

The company aims to achieve a gross profit margin of ~69% by FY27. This improvement is expected to be

driven by initiatives such as optimized sourcing, menu mix adjustments, and pricing strategies. RBA’s immediate

focus in Indonesia is to reach cash breakeven at a country level.



Barbeque:

The company has implemented a 2% price hike in the current period, aligning with its strategy of

maintaining a 2-3% price increase over the long term to offset inflationary pressures. In FY26, the company plans

to open 22-25 new restaurants in India, 5-6 new restaurants in international markets, and 6-7 new premium CDR

outlets, taking the total restaurant count to 270. The company expects a total cash requirement of INR1.4b for

FY25, including INR0.2b for maintenance expenses and INR1.2b for new store openings. If operating cash flows

are insufficient, the company may consider raising debt to meet capex requirements.

Exhibit 65: Quarterly trends

Particulars

Revenue Growth (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

SSSG

Barbeque Nation

Devyani - KFC

Devyani - PH

Jubilant (LFL)

Sapphire - KFC

Sapphire - PH

Restaurant Brands

Westlife

1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25

209%

100%

109%

71%

41%

80%

98%

85%

64%

125%

108%

182%

64%

32%

28%

65%

47%

66%

97%

41%

45%

47%

36%

17%

36%

60%

47%

50%

49%

23%

13%

15%

23%

27%

40%

14%

27%

18%

10%

17%

26%

20%

21%

32%

28%

-1%

-6%

-4%

20%

12%

28%

26%

16%

13%

24%

18%

29%

36%

22%

-3%

-1%

-4%

14%

20%

22%

11%

20%

21%

12%

25%

14%

-8%

-1%

-5%

-1%

-9%

-3%

10%

15%

14%

19%

-6%

19%

23%

-11%

-4%

-10%

-1%

-20%

14%

-2%

12%

16%

-4%

15%

20%

-2%

-5%

-13%

-3%

-2%

-19%

-9%

39%

11%

-4%

13%

16%

-3%

16%

20%

-7%

-14%

-3%

-15%

-5%

-6%

44%

-1%

10%

11%

16%

-7%

-9%

-6%

-7%

49%

-3%

-7%

-6%

-8%

-3%

-7%

-1%

54%

19%

14%

12%

10%

11%

-2%

-4%

-1%

13%

-3%

-1%

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Particulars

Gross profit margin (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

EBITDA Pre-Ind AS margins (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

Jubilant

Sapphire

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (India)

Westlife

ADS ('000')

Barbeque Nation

Devyani

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Restaurant Brands (India)

Westlife

Store (India)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani India

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Jubilant

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza hut

Restaurant Brands

Westlife

PBT Margins

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25

66.8%

71.1%

69.0%

76.2%

76.7%

67.9%

67.3%

75.3%

64.3%

66.4%

68.0%

13.7%

16.1%

17.4%

13.2%

-2.2%

1.1%

13.0%

179

127

144

120

181

195

961

391

436

1,676

516

281

235

328

331

6.6%

10.9%

13.2%

6.5%

-10.4%

-6.7%

5.9%

66.1%

70.2%

67.9%

74.5%

76.2%

66.4%

65.6%

74.7%

64.6%

66.4%

69.3%

10.0%

15.1%

17.2%

11.1%

-2.9%

3.2%

13.4%

168

121

134

127

189

205

1,047

423

466

1,753

550

301

249

334

337

2.2%

9.4%

12.6%

4.8%

-10.5%

-3.6%

7.4%

66.7%

69.3%

67.6%

73.6%

75.5%

67.1%

66.5%

74.4%

63.6%

66.4%

70.2%

10.3%

14.8%

14.7%

12.4%

-2.4%

4.2%

14.3%

172

116

136

120

199

212

1,120

461

483

1,814

599

325

274

379

341

2.0%

9.3%

9.1%

5.6%

-10.6%

-3.0%

7.9%

65.8%

69.6%

68.6%

73.2%

75.3%

67.9%

66.8%

74.3%

64.1%

66.4%

71.9%

3.8%

12.1%

12.3%

10.0%

-3.6%

1.5%

12.0%

144

106

127

108

173

216

1,184

490

506

1,863

627

341

286

391

357

-4.5%

5.5%

7.4%

2.2%

-15.6%

-6.7%

5.1%

64.0%

70.8%

69.7%

74.9%

76.0%

68.5%

68.1%

75.1%

64.0%

66.5%

70.6%

5.5%

13.2%

13.4%

11.8%

-0.3%

2.4%

12.9%

170

117

138

120

189

212

1,230

510

521

1,891

660

358

302

396

361

-1.7%

7.1%

7.7%

5.1%

-8.8%

-5.2%

6.6%

65.9%

70.8%

69.0%

75.7%

76.4%

68.7%

67.9%

76.1%

64.2%

66.8%

70.1%

4.5%

11.5%

13.3%

10.6%

1.5%

5.4%

11.9%

158

109

125

126

185

212

1,298

540

535

1,949

692

381

311

404

370

-5.0%

4.0%

7.2%

3.3%

-7.3%

-2.1%

4.9%

67.9%

70.6%

69.4%

75.8%

76.7%

68.9%

68.4%

75.7%

64.4%

67.1%

70.3%

11.0%

9.3%

12.9%

10.8%

2.8%

6.8%

11.4%

175

104

125

119

176

210

1,387

590

565

2,007

725

406

319

441

380

2.3%

1.1%

6.0%

2.1%

-6.2%

-1.4%

3.9%

68.9%

69.2%

69.9%

77.3%

76.6%

68.9%

68.3%

75.5%

64.2%

67.7%

70.2%

8.0%

9.2%

10.9%

8.6%

-0.5%

2.4%

8.7%

153

114

105

157

217

1,429

596

567

2,096

748

429

319

455

397

-0.3%

0.4%

3.8%

0.1%

-12.4%

-7.1%

0.4%

68.1%

69.2%

69.5%

76.8%

76.1%

68.6%

68.2%

76.1%

64.5%

67.6%

70.6%

6.9%

11.6%

9.8%

1.3%

3.6%

8.1%

155

104

122

119

170

219

1,473

617

570

2,148

762

442

320

456

403

-1.8%

3.1%

4.7%

1.6%

-7.5%

-5.5%

0.7%

68.1%

69.3%

69.0%

76.7%

76.1%

68.8%

68.3%

76.5%

64.9%

67.5%

69.7%

5.4%

9.4%

11.7%

8.5%

0.6%

5.0%

7.7%

153

111

118

168

222

1,557

645

593

2,199

784

461

323

464

408

-3.3%

-0.1%

4.8%

0.8%

-10.3%

-3.4%

0.1%

68.2%

68.7%

68.6%

76.2%

75.1%

68.6%

68.2%

75.6%

65.6%

67.8%

70.1%

10.3%

10.1%

12.4%

10.7%

2.1%

6.2%

9.1%

162

115

114

173

226

1,658

689

644

2,266

835

496

339

510

421

1.4%

0.4%

4.9%

2.2%

-8.6%

-3.8%

1.0%

CONSUMER DURABLES: Cables and wires drive growth; UCP margins disappoint



Revenue growth largely in line with our estimates:

Revenue for our consumer durables coverage universe

increased 16% YoY to INR175b in 3QFY25 (+1% vs. our estimates). As expected, cable demand remained strong,

while wire demand was impacted by high channel inventory at the beginning of the quarter and a decline in

copper prices. The C&W segment’s aggregate revenue grew ~14% YoY (down 3% QoQ) to INR100b (-2% vs. our

estimates) in 3QFY25. The UCP segment’s aggregate revenue (coverage companies) grew 18% YoY to INR25b

(+3% vs. our estimate) in 3QFY25. In other ECD segment, demand growth was strong across categories in Oct’25,

led by the festive season. After Diwali to mid-Dec’25, weak consumer spending led to softness in demand.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Revenue growth for Polycab/KEII/VOLT/HAVL/RRKABEL stood at 20%/20%/18%/11%/9% YoY. Demand in C&W

segment is anticipated to remain strong, led by infrastructure, industrial demand and strong real estate growth.

Early summer trends and an expected increase in consumer spending drive a positive demand outlook for

cooling products.

C&W margin gains, UCP margins under pressure:

Margins in C&W improved sequentially as the wire business has

normalized and the contribution from international business has increased. Margins in UCP segment were under

pressure due to higher spending toward advertisement, branding and promotions. Aggregate EBITDA for our

coverage universe grew ~25% YoY to INR17.0b (+2% vs. our estimates) and EBITDA margin improved 70bp YoY to

9.7% (in line). VOLT’s EBITDA surged 6.7x YoY to INR2.0b, albeit on a low base (generating profits in EMPS

segment vs. huge losses in 2HFY24). Its UCP margin dipped 2.4pp YoY to 5.9%. EBITDA of POLYCAB/KEII surged

~26%/12% YoY, while it declined for HAVL and RRKABEL by 1-2% YoY.

EPS downgrades due to cut in margin estimates:

We cut our EPS estimates for HAVL (5-8% for FY25-27),

POLYCAB (3-5% for FY25-27), KEII (6-7% for FY25-27), VOLT (8-14% for FY25-27) and RRKABEL (~12% for

FY26/FY27, each).

Top picks:

We remain positive on POLYCAB and VOLT

Surprises:

POLYCAB, RRKABEL

Misses:

HAVL and VOLT

POLYCAB:

It indicated that the C&W industry is estimated to grow at 1.5x-2.0x the real GDP growth (10-13%

CAGR). Within Project Spring, the company targets to grow at 1.5x the industry (translating into ~15-20% CAGR).

Additionally, it targets a sustainable EBITDA margin of 11%-13% in the long term. It has guided for a cumulative

capex of INR60-80b over the next five years.

KEII:

It remains optimistic about the demand outlook in the domestic and export markets. KEII expects revenue

growth of 19-20% YoY in FY26 and EBITDA margin of ~11%. It aims to clock a revenue CAGR of 20%+ over FY26-

30 to reach INR250b by FY30. EBITDA margin should improve to 12.5% by FY28 (vs. ~10% in FY25E).

RRKABEL:

It indicated that volume growth in 9MFY25 was ~6%, led by ~21% YoY growth for cables; however,

wire volumes declined ~3% YoY. With normalization in RM prices, it expects ~15% YoY volume growth in 4QFY25

with a segment EBIT margin of ~8% (vs. 7% in 3QFY25). The target is to improve this segment margin by 100-

120bp every year and achieve a margin of ~10% in FY28 (the earlier target was to achieve this in FY27).

HAVL:

It indicated the company has gained market share in all consumer-facing categories. It expects margins to

improve in the Switchgear, ECD, and Lloyd segments in the coming quarters. Further, after destocking in wires

due to lower copper prices, restocking is anticipated in 4QFY25. Management targets EBIT margin (excl. Lloyd) of

12-13% in FY26. In the Lighting segment, volume growth was 13-14% YoY, but price erosion adversely impacted

growth. Currently, price erosion is bottoming out, and growth should start improving.

VOLT:

It indicated that the pressure on UCP's margins is due to its focus on gaining market share, which involved

significant spending on advertising, promotions, and in-store demonstrations. It aims to retain the UCP

segment’s margin in the high-single digits in 4QFY25. With the upcoming summer season, management remains

optimistic about strong demand across product categories, aided by positive consumer sentiment.

Guidance highlights:



February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 66: Aggregate* UCP revenue and growth

UCP revenue (INR b)

123

17 19

16 17

YoY Growth (%)

Exhibit 67: Aggregate* UCP EBIT and margin

UCP EBIT (INR b)

0.6

UCP EBIT Margin (%)

15 22 15 13 16 28 32 15 18 33 38 17 21 43 57 22 25

-0.1

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In UCP revenue and EBIT we consider VOLT and HAVL

Exhibit 68: Aggregate* C&W revenue and growth

Cables and wires Revenue (INR b)

YoY Growth (%)

Exhibit 69: Aggregate* C&W EBIT and margin

Cables and Wires EBIT (INR b)

EBIT Margin (%)

102

103

100

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In Cables and Wires revenue and EBIT we considered Polycab, KEII, HAVL and RRKABEL

EMS: Robust revenue growth and margin stability fuel performance



Continued strong revenue growth across EMS players:

The EMS sector reported another robust quarter with

aggregate surging 87% YoY to INR149.5b. This superlative growth was driven by the execution of a strong order book

at hand. Dixon led the pack with revenue surging 2.2x YoY, followed by Amber (65%), and Cyient DLM (38%). While

Avalon too witnessed a strong recovery with revenue up 31% YoY. DATAPATT continued to be the only outlier with

revenue declining ~16% YoY due to deferment of completed orders by the client. Going ahead, we expect the strong

revenue momentum to continue, led by healthy demand traction and execution of the large order in hand

(~INR161.8b as of Dec’24; excluding Dixon and Amber, i.e., ~1.7x of TTM revenue of these companies). We expect

aggregate revenue growth of ~72% for our coverage universe in 4QFY25 and a CAGR of 46% over FY24-FY27.

The order book (ex-Dixon, Amber) continues to remain healthy, with new clients to drive the order book going

forward:

The sector continued to witness healthy order inflows (INR39b) in 3QFY25. The intensity of the inflows

witnessed strong traction with order inflows growing ~33% YoY. Most companies expect order inflows to

accelerate going forward, fueled by inflows from newly added clients and robust market conditions led by favorable

regulatory policy. Among our coverage universe, Kaynes saw the highest order book growth of ~60% YoY, followed

by Avalon/Syrma at ~+25%/18% YoY.

Operating efficiency gains driven by favorable business mix, barring Cyient DLM and Dixon:

EBITDA margin for

our coverage universe dipped 30bp YoY; the contraction was fully attributable to Cyient DLM (EBITDA margin

contracted 100bp) and Dixon (EBITDA margin contracted 9bp YoY). Excluding Dixon and Cyient DLM, the coverage

universe witnessed a margin expansion of ~120bp YoY, with all the companies witnessing margin expansion.

Avalon witnessed the highest EBITDA margin expansion of ~460bp YoY, due to an increase in domestic

manufacturing (88% vs. 77% in 3QFY24) and favorable operating leverage. It was followed by Syrma (EBITDA

margin up 360bp YoY), which benefitted from a favorable business mix during the quarter (lower share of low-

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



margin consumer business at 31% in 3QFY25 vs. 36% in 3QFY24). Going forward, we expect the margins for our

coverage universe to remain broadly stable.

The quarter experienced one earnings upgrade:

We have upgraded our earnings estimates for Avalon by 9%/6% for

FY25/FY26 while largely retaining our FY27 estimates as we expect the long-term revenue trajectory to be strong,

backed by the addition of new customers in the US and Indian markets and order inflows from high-growth/

high-margin industries.

Further, we broadly maintain our FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates for Syrma SGS led by margin expansions fueled

by the higher contribution from the exports, ODM, and high-margin verticals.

Apart from these, we cut our estimates for Kaynes (down 11%/8%/10% for FY25/FY26/FY27) to factor in a

guidance cut for FY25, and Cyient DLM (down 14%/25%/26% for FY25/FY26/FY27) due to the uncertainty about

large order flows.

We cut our FY25/FY26E EPS by 7%/5%, while largely maintaining our FY27E EPS for Data Patterns to factor in the

new programs sanctioned by DRDO along with management’s focus on expanding the addressable market.

Further, we tweak our earnings estimates for Dixon (down 8%/4% for FY25/FY26 and up 7% for FY27 to factor in

higher mobile segment revenue and lower consumer electronics revenue), and downgrade the same for Amber

(down 9%/3%/2% for FY25/FY26/FY27 to bake in slower growth in the railways segment).

Surprises:

AVALON and SYRMA SGS

Misses:

KAYNES, CYIENT DLM, DATA PATTERN, and DIXON

Guidance highlights:



Kaynes

reduced its revenue guidance to INR28-29b from the earlier guidance of over INR30b for FY25, while its

EBITDA margin guidance remains intact at ~15%. For FY26, management expects INR45b of revenue (ex-

inorganic revenue) with further improvement in margins led by better gross margin and operating leverage.

Avalon

raised its FY25 revenue growth guidance to 22-24% (from 16-20%) and expects EBITDA margins to

sustain over 12%. The gross margin is likely to be in the range of 33-35% going forward.

Syrma SGS

aims to achieve an EBITDA of approximately INR3b in FY25, with a 7% margin. For FY26, it targets a

revenue growth rate of 30-35%, along with a focus on margin expansion. Going forward, the company plans to

bring its export mix to ~25-30%

Cyient DLM:

The company maintains its guidance of a ~30% revenue CAGR over the next three to five years;

however, FY26 consol. revenue growth would be in the mid-teens due to the lack of BEL orders. EBITDA margin

may remain flat in FY25, with margin expansion expected after 1HFY26.

DATAPATT

maintains its guidance of ~20-25% revenue growth in FY25, with EBITDA margins of ~35-40%. The

company also reaffirms its near-term growth outlook, targeting a 20-25% CAGR.

Amber Enterprises

maintains its guidance of doubling the revenue in the next three years, backed by strong

order book visibility and an increase in wallet share. It revised its EMS division growth guidance for FY25 to +55%

YoY (vs. +45% YoY earlier) propelled by both PCBA and bare board verticals. The company expects revenue from

the railways segment to be muted in FY25, though its new products in the railway segment are expected to have

a margin profile of 15-18%.

Dixon Technologies

expects total mobile phone volumes to ramp up and reach around 30m units in FY25, with

exports of 0.5-0.6m units of mobile phones likely in Feb and Mar’25. It is expanding capacity in the telecom

segment due to increased volumes and expects to double the segment’s revenue in FY26. Further, the company

expects revenue from laptops to be in the range of INR25-30b in FY26.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 70: Key operating indicators

Revenue (INR m)

YoY

QoQ

FY25 FY24 (%)

FY25

(%)

6,612 5,093 30

5,721

2,809 2,143 31

2,750

4,442 3,210 38

3,895

8,692 7,067 23

8,327

1,170 1,395 -16

910

104,537 48,183 117 115,341 -9

21,333 12,948 65 16,847 27

149,595 80,038

153,791

-3

23,725 18,908

21,603

FY25

14.2

12.3

8.1

9.1

46.2

3.7

7.4

5.7

12.6

EBITDA margins (%)

YoY

FY24 (bp) FY25

13.7

14.4

7.7

460 11.0

9.2

-100

8.1

5.5

360

8.5

43.0 310 37.7

3.8

-10

3.7

6.1

140

6.8

6.0

-30

5.1

11.4 120 11.5

QoQ

(bp) FY25

-10

665

140

240

168

509

850

447

1,712

359

50 4,099

100 2,029

Adj PAT (INR m)

YoY

QoQ

FY24 (%) FY25 (%)

452

602

265

175

184

-9

155

228

362

510

-12

303

964

78 2,144 -20

-5

192

2,327 76 3,933

1,367 48 1,597 27

Source: MOFSL, Company

Kaynes

Avalon

Cyient DLM

Syrma SGS

Data Patterns

Dixon

Amber

Agg.

Agg. (ex. Dixon, Amber)

Exhibit 71: Aggregate EBITDA margin

Aggregate EBITDA Margins

7.2%

6.3%

7.9%

5.7%

Exhibit 72: A favorable product mix positively impacted the

aggregate gross margin

Aggregate Gross Margins

18.0%

16.2%

5.1%

15.6%

15.4%

16.0%

18.2%

13.9%

14.1%

6.0%

5.5%

5.7%

7.2%

Source: MOFSL, Company

FY26E

Old

182.0

113.0

92.5

15.9

21.7

14.7

51.0

FY27E

Old

235.0

172.3

150.6

25.2

30.2

22.1

65.0

Exhibit 73:

Our revised EPS estimates (INR)

Dixon

Amber

Kaynes

Avalon

Cyient DLM

Syrma SGS

Data Patterns

Rev

130.8

70.8

47.4

9.5

9.6

36.1

FY25E

Old

143.0

78.0

53.5

8.8

11.3

9.5

38.9

Chg (%)

-9

-11

-14

-7

Rev

174.2

109.5

85.4

16.8

16.3

15.3

48.6

Chg (%)

-4

-3

-8

-25

-5

Rev

250.6

168.7

136.1

25.2

22.4

21.4

62.2

Chg (%)

-2

-10

-26

-3

-4

FINANCIALS – BANKS: Earnings remain muted; NIM and credit cost challenges continue; unsecured

delinquencies remain elevated



The banking sector reported another soft quarter amid moderation in margins and sustained higher provisioning

expenses, mainly for the private banks. NIM continued to decline amid cost pressure, while the competition for

deposits continued to remain intensive for banks, and the CASA mix continued to deteriorate. Public sector

banks too experienced some NIM compression, albeit very limited. Opex continued to grow in a narrow range as

banks had seen a reduction in employee-related expenses, while other income too declined, mainly due to the

absence of the treasury gain in 3QFY25. Business momentum stood weak for most of the banks, while the CD

ratio continued to remain elevated for banks. Growth in corporate stood sluggish, while growth in unsecured

saw a sharp moderation amid stress in MFI, PL, and CC. We have cut our earnings and growth estimates for most

banks amid a moderation in credit growth and elevated provisions. Most banks have indicated a bottoming of

stress in 4QFY25 and gradual recovery from 2HFY26 onwards. We remain watchful of the asset quality in the

unsecured segment. We estimate credit growth at 12% for the sector for FY26E.

NII growth stood at 9% YoY for private banks and 3.6% YoY for PSBs. In our coverage universe, KMB, PNB,

Federal, and DCB reported healthy NII growth sequentially, whereas Bandhan, IIB, and RBL reported a sequential

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



decline in NII. Further, we believe that NII growth should grow at a moderate pace given slow business

momentum and cost pressure piling up. As a result, we believe that NII growth should be 100-200bp lower than

the credit growth over the upcoming FY26E. The NIM trajectory is likely to witness pressure in 1HFY26, while a

mild moderation can be seen in 2HFY26 as the reduction in repo rates should benefit the COF. In 3QFY25, NIM

continued to contract with some banks continuing to see a double-digit dip (e.g., Bandhan and RBL). Among

PSBs too, BoB, Canara, and SBI saw a double-digit contraction in NIMs.

Fresh slippages stood elevated for most of the banks amid sustained stress in microfinance. Most of the lenders

have slowed their growth in unsecured loans and adopted a cautious approach. SMA for the PSBs was elevated;

however, most of the banks have guided that it was due to one account, which has been out of SMA and is a

regular paying account at present. Credit costs for select private players stood elevated, while PSBs continued to

remain at a comfortable range. Private Banks with exposure to the MFI should continue to experience elevated

credit costs as most of the bulky recoveries are now behind. PCR for the banks remained healthy, while the

restructured book continued a declining trend.

Private Sector Banks – Business momentum weak; margin pressure continues:

Advances growth stood at 2.8%

QoQ for our banking universe coverage, of which HDFCB grew 0.9% QoQ, while Federal Bank reported a flat

advances growth. For a few banks, such as RBL Bank, Federal Bank, and IndusInd, deposits declined in 3Q. As a

result, the overall deposit growth for our banking universe stood at 2% QoQ. DCB and IDFC First Bank posted

healthy business growth. CASA ratio continued to moderate for most of the banks, and our banking coverage’s

CASA now stands at 37.2%. NIM continued to see moderation as yields declined due to slower growth in MFI for

most banks. Slippages stood elevated amid stress in unsecured segments, while others were under control.

Public Sector Banks – NIM trends mixed; asset quality continues to improve:

NII for the PSBs stood largely

flattish at +0.4% QoQ, as NIMs dipped for SBI, BoB, and Canara; while NII posted a mild increase for Union Bank

and PNB and was up 8bp QoQ for Indian Bank. Slippages remained under control for most banks, reflecting no

imminent signs of stress for the banks. Hence, the GNPA ratio improved 6-51bp QoQ. Overall, PCR continued to

be at healthy levels of ~74-90%. SMA for the PSBs was elevated; however, most of the banks have guided that it

was due to one account, which has been out of SMA and is a regular paying account at present. However, the

restructured book witnessed a sequential decline.

Small Finance Banks – Business growth steady; asset quality deteriorates:

AUBANK reported healthy business

growth as advances grew 49% YoY (merged basis, 5% QoQ), led by healthy traction in retail and commercial.

Deposit growth was modest at 2.3% QoQ, whereas the CASA ratio moderated to 31%. Asset quality saw a

deterioration with GNPA increasing 33bp QoQ, while credit costs also stood elevated amid continued stress in

unsecured (MFI and Credit Cards). EQUITASB reported healthy advances growth of 21% YoY/4.2% QoQ, while

the bank reduced its MFI book and also remained cautious about the growth in MFI. Deposit growth was modest

at 2.2% QoQ. While NIMs declined sharply by 18bp QoQ to 7.36%. Slippages were elevated, while the bank

continued to make provisions to sustain the sub-1% NNPA levels.

Our view:

While we have already reduced our growth estimates post-1HFY25 earnings, further earnings cuts in

3QFY25 were led by a miss on margins, slower business momentum, and elevated credit costs for the MFI-heavy

banks. We estimate a credit growth of 12% YoY for FY26. We maintain a cautious view on margins and the

delinquency cycle of the unsecured loans, while we expect credit costs to remain elevated for private banks.

After a sharp earnings cut during our 3QFY25 preview, we have further cut our earnings for private banks by

3%/2% for FY26/27E. We thus expect private bank’s aggregate earnings to report 13.9% CAGR for FY25-27E. For

PSBs, we have raised our estimates marginally by 0.8% for FY26E. We estimate aggregate earnings growth for

PSBs to grow at a moderate pace of 8% over FY25-27E. While the balance sheet remains healthy, healthy PCR

and contingent buffers with many large private banks along with reasonable valuations keep us positive on the

sector.

Our preferred picks

are ICICIBC, HDFCB, SBIN, and AUBANK.

Surprises: KMB, AUSFB, PNB, and UNBK

Misses: BANDHAN, CBK, BOB, and IDFCFB

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Guidance highlights



HDFCB

continues to focus on healthy traction in deposit growth to bring the CD ratio down at an accelerated

pace; the bank expects to achieve an LDR of 85-90% within the next 1-1.5 years. The bank is motivated to

decrease its LDR thus forgoing credit growth while ensuring profitability.



KMB

is making efforts to build its deposit franchise while retaining healthy deposit growth along with

maintaining lower costs. NIM exhibited resilience despite the absence of growth from a high-yielding asset mix,

while as the RBI’s embargo uplifts and the share of unsecured increases, the bank can see an improvement in

the yields. With the embargo getting lifted, the bank aims to achieve a ROA of over 2%.



ICICIBC

continues to have a strategic focus on growing PBT through a 360-degree customer approach. The bank

continues to optimize its opex by streamlining its internal process with an ongoing journey of leveraging the cost

base much better, which has led to lower opex consistently. A steady mix of high-yielding portfolios and broad-

based growth across product lines are enabling profitable growth while maintaining healthy business diversification.



AXSB's

business growth has been a laggard to peers. Loan growth – HL, VF, and corporate have been lagging

behind the system average growth, and the bank is expecting a pick-up in the loan growth on the retail side. The

bank expects to continue operating within a similar range of CD ratio. While the credit costs have normalized,

the bank considers the current cycle as reflecting normalized credit costs.



SBIN

delivered a healthy 13.8% credit growth and guides for 14-16% growth, backed by broad-based sector

growth. Deposits growth guidance is at 10%+ YoY, with the bank’s aim to enhance its CA share and further

strengthen its SA deposits base. SMA-2 accounts increased in 3Q, but only one major account was affected as of

Dec’24. This account has since been regularized, reducing the risk of further stress. The bank maintains guidance

of ~50bp credit costs through the cycle.



IIB

has slowed its loan growth to 12%. It is cautiously optimistic about loan growth and will accelerate growth as the

credit environment improves. NIMs are affected and lower at 3.93% amid slower growth in the high-yielding

business. The MFI and Card businesses may continue to report stress in the near term, keeping credit costs elevated.



BOB’s

advances growth stood healthy at 12%, with the bank maintaining its advances growth guidance at 12-

13%. While the bank maintains its deposits growth guidance at 9-11% YoY. The bank has slightly lowered its

NIMs guidance at 3.1% (+/- 5bp), despite the expected rate cuts. PCR was broadly stable at 76% as slippages

were under control. BOB expects the annualized credit cost to remain below 0.75%.

Exhibit 74: Earnings decline was led by NIM moderation and a rise in credit costs for select private banks; benign credit costs

led to steady earnings for PSBs

INR b

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

EQUITASFB

3QFY25

20.2

136.1

28.3

114.2

91.5

5.4

24.3

306.5

203.7

49.0

52.3

64.1

72.0

110.3

15.9

414.5

92.4

8.2

NII

YoY (%)

52.7

8.6

12.1

2.8

(2.9)

14.5

7.7

9.1

14.4

(1.3)

10.3

9.8

7.2

2.5

4.1

0.8

4.2

QoQ (%)

2.4

0.9

(4.0)

(1.8)

6.6

2.7

1.8

1.6

2.4

(2.2)

3.6

2.5

4.9

(1.9)

(0.4)

2.1

2.0

3QFY25

12.0

105.3

20.2

76.6

78.4

2.7

15.7

250.0

168.9

17.6

36.0

47.5

51.8

66.2

10.0

235.5

74.9

3.3

PPOP

YoY (%)

83.4

15.2

22.1

9.3

15.2

28.2

9.2

5.7

14.7

12.6

(10.9)

15.9

13.5

4.6

30.2

15.8

2.9

(7.6)

QoQ (%)

6.5

(1.7)

9.0

(19.1)

2.4

6.3

0.3

1.2

1.0

(10.3)

0.0

0.4

1.6

(3.4)

9.5

(19.6)

(7.7)

(4.8)

3QFY25

5.3

63.0

4.3

48.4

41.0

1.5

9.6

167.4

117.9

3.4

14.0

28.5

33.0

45.1

0.3

168.9

46.0

0.7

PAT

YoY (%)

40.8

3.8

(41.8)

5.6

12.3

19.6

(5.1)

2.2

14.8

(52.6)

(39.1)

34.6

10.0

102.8

(86.0)

17.3

28.2

(67.2)

QoQ (%)

(7.5)

(8.9)

(54.5)

(7.6)

2.2

(2.6)

(9.6)

(0.5)

0.4

69.1

5.3

5.4

(1.2)

4.8

(85.3)

(7.9)

(2.5)

415.0

Total Banking Coverage 1808.8

6.3

0.9

1272.7

11.0

(5.7)

798.4

10.9

(3.4)

Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 75: NIMs continue to moderate with some banks reporting a double-digit

compression

NIM (%)

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

2QFY25

6.05

3.99

7.40

3.10

2.86

3.27

3.12

3.46

4.27

6.18

4.08

3.49

4.91

2.92

5.04

3.14

2.90

3QFY25

5.90

3.93

6.90

2.94

2.71

3.30

3.11

3.43

4.25

6.04

3.93

3.57

4.93

2.93

4.90

3.01

2.91

YoY (bp)

(8)

(30)

(16)

(32)

(18)

(8)

(18)

(38)

(36)

(29)

(22)

(62)

(21)

(17)

QoQ (bp)

(15)

(6)

(50)

(16)

(15)

(1)

(3)

(2)

(14)

(15)

(14)

(13)

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 76: Overall business momentum weakens for our banking coverage universe

INR b

AUBANK*

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

Total Banking Coverage

3QFY25

996

10,146

1,274

11,513

10,237

478

2,304

25,182

13,144

2,231

3,669

5,421

4,138

10,700

904

40,046

9,202

1,51,584

Loans

YoY (%)

49.2

8.8

15.6

12.4

11.2

22.7

15.7

3.0

13.9

20.3

12.2

10.7

15.1

16.8

13.1

13.8

6.7

11.2

QoQ (%)

5.0

1.5

1.1

2.7

4.0

7.5

0.0

0.9

2.9

3.7

2.7

1.7

3.6

4.9

2.9

3.8

2.6

2.8

Deposits

CASA ratio (%)

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

1,123

40.1

2.3

25.6

(261)

(131)

10,959

9.1

0.8

39.0

(300)

(200)

1,410

20.1

(1.1)

31.7

(439)

(145)

13,925

11.8

2.1

39.7

(101)

(16)

13,695

8.4

1.6

30.0

(165)

(127)

567

20.3

3.9

25.1

(103)

(51)

2,664

11.2

(1.0)

30.2

(47)

25,638

15.8

2.5

34.0

(370)

(130)

15,203

14.1

1.5

40.5

(15)

2,369

29.8

5.9

47.7

(114)

4,094

11.0

(0.7)

34.9

(360)

(99)

7,023

7.4

1.3

38.3

(135)

(54)

4,735

15.9

2.6

42.3

(540)

(130)

15,297

15.6

4.9

38.1

(435)

(119)

1,068

15.1

(1.1)

32.8

(98)

(75)

52,294

9.8

2.2

39.2

(198)

(83)

12,166

3.8

(2.0)

33.4

(97)

1,84,227

11.6

2.0

37.2

* AU Bank Nos on merged with FIncare, Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 77: Asset quality deteriorates for select banks

Asset quality

(%)

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

GNPA

1.98

1.44

4.68

2.50

3.73

3.29

2.09

1.36

1.97

1.92

2.11

3.48

1.49

4.48

2.88

2.13

4.36

2QFY25 (%)

NNPA

0.75

0.34

1.29

0.60

0.99

1.17

0.57

0.41

0.42

0.48

0.64

0.27

0.43

0.46

0.79

0.53

0.98

PCR

62.8

76.6

73.5

76.3

74.1

65.2

72.9

71.2

79.0

75.3

70.1

92.5

71.4

90.2

73.0

75.7

78.4

GNPA

2.31

1.46

4.68

2.43

3.34

3.11

1.95

1.42

1.96

1.94

2.25

3.26

1.50

4.09

2.92

2.07

3.85

3QFY25 (%)

NNPA

0.91

0.35

1.28

0.59

0.89

1.18

0.49

0.46

0.42

0.52

0.68

0.21

0.41

0.53

0.82

PCR

61.2

76.2

73.5

76.0

74.1

62.9

75.2

67.8

78.7

73.6

70.2

93.8

73.2

90.2

82.2

74.7

79.3

GNPA

(7)

(39)

(18)

(14)

(1)

(22)

(39)

(6)

(51)

QoQ change (bp)

NNPA

(1)

(10)

(8)

(6)

(2)

(5)

(26)

(16)

PCR

(161)

(46)

(28)

(224)

223

(207)

(29)

(168)

136

175

919

(100)

Exhibit 78: Snapshot of the restructured book across banks (%)

Restructured book

Absolute Dec’22 Mar’23

Jun’23

Sep’23 Dec’23 Mar’24 Jun’24

AXSB

12.7

0.30

0.22

0.21

0.20

0.18

0.16

0.14

BANDHAN NA

DCBB

8.6

4.94

4.51

3.97

3.40

3.00

2.62

2.34

HDFCB

0.42

0.31

0.22

ICICIBC

21.1

0.50

0.40

0.32

0.29

0.26

0.22

IIB

6.6

1.25

0.84

0.66

0.54

0.48

0.40

0.34

KMB

2.3

0.25

0.22

0.19

0.15

0.13

0.10

0.08

15.6

1.81

1.62

1.40

1.30

1.10

0.97

0.83

RBK

2.9

1.67

1.21

1.05

0.89

0.63

0.51

0.44

AUBANK

3.0

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.40

BOB

1.87

1.5

1.31

1.0

SBIN

137.1

0.85

0.8

0.69

0.62

0.54

0.47

0.38

INBK

66.8

3.37

2.51

2.19

2.12

1.93

1.67

1.51

PNB

1.54

1.32

UNBK

102.5

2.38

2.20

2.00

1.71

1.57

1.48

1.30

CBK

1.75

INR b

Sep’24 Dec’24

0.13

0.12

2.07

1.81

0.20

0.16

0.29

0.18

0.06

0.05

0.71

0.68

0.38

0.32

0.40

0.30

0.38

0.34

1.34

1.23

1.21

1.08

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 79: We cut our earnings estimates for private banks by 2-3% for FY26-27; earnings estimate of PSBs witnessed a

decline of ~1.5% for FY26E and FY27E

PAT (INR b)

Private Banks

AXSB

BANDHAN

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

KMB

RBK

AUBANK

EQUITASB

Total Private Banks

YoY growth

PSU Banks

BOB

CBK

INBK

PNB

SBIN

UNBK

Total PSU Bank

YoY growth

Total for Banks

YoY growth

Other Financials

SBICARD

PAYTM

FY25E

263.7

36.6

5.8

667.9

460.7

21.3

65.8

141.1

41.0

7.7

21.1

3.0

1,735.7

7.0%

186.7

161.7

103.3

156.3

710.8

158.3

1,477.1

19.7%

3,212.8

12.5%

21.1

-28.4

Old estimates

FY26E

290.7

38.5

7.4

750.6

508.7

35.7

87.4

156.0

48.1

13.6

27.7

7.3

1,971.6

13.6%

197.6

170.5

112.0

174.1

763.3

164.3

1,581.8

7.1%

3,553.4

10.6%

29.8

-2.2

FY27E

334.8

44.6

9.4

855.0

578.6

49.3

110.6

184.8

59.2

21.6

36.0

11.1

2,295.1

16.4%

218.2

191.0

122.9

196.4

869.4

179.7

1,777.6

12.4%

4,072.7

14.6%

37.2

8.9

Revised estimates

FY25E

FY26E

FY27E

261.0

32.8

6.0

668.1

465.8

15.8

63.9

142.9

40.6

7.2

21.0

3.0

1,728.1

6.5%

191.9

160.4

106.7

167.1

712.0

171.0

1,509.2

22.3%

3,237.3

13.3%

19.6

-1.5

277.2

35.2

7.5

711.8

503.9

32.2

85.9

159.7

46.4

12.4

27.9

7.3

1,907.3

10.4%

195.1

170.6

113.1

190.5

750.5

174.1

1,593.9

5.6%

3,501.2

8.2%

28.7

-2.2

321.8

41.4

9.6

821.4

576.3

49.1

106.2

190.2

57.6

19.5

36.2

11.1

2,240.3

17.5%

218.4

187.4

124.3

214.4

840.1

186.0

1,770.6

11.1%

4,010.9

14.6%

37.8

8.9

FY25E

-1.0%

-10.3%

3.1%

0.0%

1.1%

-25.6%

-2.8%

1.3%

-1.0%

-7.4%

-0.6%

0.0%

-0.4%

Change (%)

FY26E

-4.6%

-8.5%

1.5%

-5.2%

-0.9%

-9.9%

-1.7%

2.4%

-3.5%

-8.6%

0.5%

0.0%

-3.3%

FY27E

-3.9%

-7.1%

1.3%

-3.9%

-0.4%

-0.5%

-4.0%

2.9%

-2.6%

-10.1%

0.4%

0.0%

-2.4%

2.8%

-0.8%

3.4%

6.9%

0.2%

8.0%

2.2%

0.8%

-1.3%

0.0%

1.0%

9.4%

-1.7%

5.9%

0.8%

-1.5%

0.1%

-1.9%

1.2%

9.2%

-3.4%

3.5%

-0.4%

-1.5%

-6.7%

-3.9%

1.6%

FINANCIALS – NBFC: Weak macros led to asset quality stress and demand moderation across segments



NBFCs (incl. HFCs) under our coverage reported AUM growth of ~16% YoY/4% QoQ in 3QFY25. Vehicle financiers

(VFs) clocked AUM growth of 22% YoY, but we expect growth to moderate by end-FY25 and further in FY26.

Large HFCs (PNBHF and LICHF) grew 7% YoY; affordable and small-ticket HFCs saw ~14% YoY growth; NBFC-MFIs’

AUM was flat YoY (down 6% QoQ); and gold loan NBFCs grew ~31% YoY (despite weak QoQ AUM growth in

MGFL). NII/PPoP/PAT grew 15%/15%/5% YoY for our coverage companies (excl. PIEL). Excluding MFI, NII/PPoP/

PAT grew 16%/17%/15% YoY.

NIM for HFCs (including affordable HFCs) showed divergent trends because of company-specific nuances. Large

HFCs, such as PNBHF and LICHF, reported stable NIM QoQ. For Aavas and Repco, NIM expanded ~10bp QoQ and

~40bp QoQ, respectively, since both companies took PLR hikes in the quarter. HomeFirst reported ~25bp QoQ

compression in NIMs due to higher liquidity on the balance sheet, a rise in the cost of borrowings and a minor

compression in yields.

The RBI’s recent ~25bp rate cut will benefit VFs, given that a decent proportion of their borrowings are on

floating rates, while their vehicle finance loan book is fixed rate in nature. PV demand gained momentum during

the quarter, whereas CV demand remained subdued. The used vehicle financing segment also faced some

headwinds primarily due to the limited supply of used vehicles. Asset quality saw a marginal deterioration across

vehicle sub-segments, driven by weak macros and spillover effects of rainfall in 3Q. However, VFs expect a

recovery in asset quality in the seasonally strong 4Q.

Except for power financiers and select HFCs, a vast majority of NBFCs, including MFIs, reported a deterioration in

asset quality, attributable to customer overleveraging, floods/extended monsoons, sluggishness in customer

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



cashflows, and weak macros. Unlike earlier, this time around, the asset quality deterioration was observed

across both secured (such as micro-LAP and vehicle) and unsecured product segments.

NBFC-MFIs faced further asset quality deterioration during the quarter; however, early green-shoots of recovery

emerged in Dec'24 and Jan'25, with improvement in collection efficiencies and reduction in new flows/slippages.

Most NBFC-MFIs now expect normalization in asset quality and profitability within the next 2-3 quarters. PNBHF,

LICHF, PFC, REC, Repco and ABFL reported a QoQ improvement in asset quality, while credit costs were

significantly high for NBFC-MFIs, which posted a sequential decline in loan growth and a sharp deterioration in

asset quality. Notably, CREDAG/Fusion reported a sequential rise in GS3 of ~155bp/~320bp, resulting in high

credit costs in 3QFY25.

HFCs/AHFCs – Regional headwinds impact disbursements; NIM could see transitory compression in a declining

rate cycle:

Disbursements and loan growth for HFCs were impacted by the Karnataka E-Khata and Hyderabad

(Project Hydra) issues, resulting in delays in property registrations and operational challenges. AAVAS was the

only player to report a healthy sequential growth in disbursements, while PNBHF and HomeFirst reported

broadly flat sequential disbursements. In contrast, LICHF, CANF, and Repco reported a sequential decline,

impacted by the aforementioned factors. Affordable HFCs (excluding HomeFirst and CANF) saw a sequential

improvement in margins, driven by higher yields. Margins for larger HFCs like PNBHF and LICHF remained stable

QoQ. HomeFirst reported ~25bp compression in NIMs. In an interest rate cut cycle, large HFCs could see a

transitory NIM contraction, driven by pressure on yields from higher competitive intensity. During the quarter,

asset quality saw a slight deterioration in the mortgage sector, particularly in the micro-LAP segment, due to

weak macroeconomic conditions. However, mortgage financiers expect improvement in asset quality in the

seasonally strong 4Q.

Vehicle financiers – PVs tracking better than CVs; asset quality slightly weakens amid macro weakness and

relatively low utilization levels:

The demand in CV segment remained subdued during the quarter, impacted by

weak government spending and capex. The used vehicle segment also faced sluggish demand, primarily due to

limited supply. However, overall disbursements saw a marginal improvement, driven by positive momentum in

the PV and tractor segments. Asset quality exhibited a slight deterioration, primarily in the HCV segment, due to

low utilization levels and broader macroeconomic weakness. Disbursements grew 14% YoY and ~11% QoQ for

three VFs in our coverage universe. While SHFL and CIFC have a diversified AUM mix, we have classified them

under VFs for this exercise. SHFL exhibited a sequential NIM compression due to higher liquidity on its balance

sheet. In contrast, MMFSL and CIFC saw a slight NIM improvement, supported by better yields in 3Q.

Diversified financiers – Focused on strengthening secured segments; unsecured stress likely to peak in two

quarters:

Diversified lenders reported a decent performance and showed confidence in beginning to grow their

unsecured loan book (after almost 4-5 quarters of calibration in unsecured loans). Within personal loans and

unsecured loans, diversified lenders are targeting salaried individuals and prime-segment borrowers with strong

CIBIL scores, which shows a more risk-conscious lending approach. LTFH performed significantly better than the

overall industry and its NBFC-MFI peers. BAF, in our view, would look to pivot toward growth in its unsecured

segments, given that it is now past the hump of asset quality stress in its B2C segments.

Gold financiers – Robust gold loan growth supported by rising gold prices and non-availability of unsecured

loans:

Gold loan growth over the last two quarters has been accompanied by decent gold tonnage growth,

higher gold prices and non-availability of unsecured loans. MUTH/MGFL reported ~34%/18% YoY growth in gold

loans. Asirvad MFI (subsidiary of MGFL) and Belstar (subsidiary of MUTH) acknowledged the stress in the MFI

segment, which resulted in higher credit costs in their respective MFI businesses. Going forward, we need to

closely monitor the trajectory of gold prices and the regulatory changes, including LTV monitoring (during the

tenor of the loan) and repledging of gold/rollover of loans at the time of maturity.

Microfinance (MFI) – Loan book declines amid asset quality challenges; early signs of recovery visible in

Dec’24 and Jan’25:

Asset

quality continued to deteriorate across the MFI sector, with all NBFC-MFIs, SFBs and

even larger banks acknowledging the problem of customer overleveraging, which has resulted in higher

delinquencies and lower collection efficiencies. The Karnataka government recently enacted an ordinance aimed

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



at curbing unregistered lenders from exploiting borrowers. While this ordinance is not applicable to NBFCs and

other lending institutions registered with the RBI, we could see continued disruptions for one-two months in

Karnataka. Upcoming implementation of MFIN guardrails in Apr’25 will temper loan growth and put some

pressure on asset quality in the short term. However, the implementation of these guardrails will strengthen the

industry in the long run. Credit costs for NBFC-MFIs remained elevated because of a sustained deterioration in

asset quality. However, MFIs witnessed some early green shoots with collection efficiency improving in Dec’24

and Jan’25. That said, it would take another 2-3 quarters before the situation stabilizes, with recovery now

anticipated by 2QFY26.

Power financiers – Weak disbursement/loan growth due to delays in signing PPAs and slowdown in economic

activity; asset quality improved from resolutions of stressed exposures:

PFC/REC reported a decent quarter,

but disbursements/loan growth were weak due to a slowdown in economic activity, with PFC/REC reporting loan

growth of ~10%/14% YoY. NIM rose ~20bp QoQ for PFC due to a favorable product mix and slightly better yields.

For REC, NIM was broadly stable. Asset quality continued to improve, driven by resolution of stressed assets like

Lanco Amarkantak and Nagai Power. Given expected resolution of stressed assets like KSK Mahanadi, Sinnar

Thermal, Hiranmayee Energy and few others, credit costs will remain benign in 4QFY25 as well.

Our view:

The stress in unsecured retail segment appears to have peaked. While the existing stress on the

balance sheet will have to be provided for/written-off, we will start seeing NBFCs pivoting from moderation

(over the last four/five quarters) to growth after two quarters. The interest rate cut cycle, in addition to being

margin-accretive for certain products, will also give strength to demand and consequent loan growth. Further,

the regulatory environment, going ahead, could be less overwhelming than it has been in the recent past. The

microfinance sector will continue to go through a difficult patch for the next 2-3 quarters before the situation

normalizes, and we now expect a recovery by 2QFY26. Additional income in the hands of individuals thanks to

the income tax reduction in the Union Budget will not all flow into consumption or savings. Higher disposable

income will also spur some discretionary lifestyle purchases and the higher net income will also improve the

eligibility of individuals for loans. Our preferred ideas are

SHFL, MMFS, and REC and HomeFirst.

Positive Surprises:

MUTH, MMFS, BAF

Misses:

CREDAG, Spandana, Poonawalla, IIFL Finance, Fusion, MGFL

Rating Change:

Guidance highlights:

a) MMFS guided for mid- to high-teen loan growth in FY26; b) MUTH continued to guide for ~25%

YoY gold AUM growth for FY25 and conservative gold loan growth of ~15% for FY26; c) BAF guided for ~25% AUM

growth in FY26 and credit costs of <2% with PAT growth of ~22%-23%; d) PNBHF guided for retail recoveries to

continue for the next 4-5 quarters; and e) NBFC-MFIs saw some early green shoots with improving collection

efficiencies during the quarter; expect things to normalize within next 2-3 quarters.

Exhibit 80: PBT (excl. PIEL) grew 7% YoY for our NBFC coverage universe*

PBT - YoY growth (%)

-1

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. PIEL and Indostar

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 81: LICHF loan growth has lagged the industry, while

PNBHF retail loan growth has been gaining momentum

9MFY24

FY24

Q1 2025

1HFY25

9MFY25

Exhibit 82: Loan growth moderated for Repco and Canfin,

while it was largely stable for Aavas

9MFY24

23 22 22

FY24

Q1 2025

1HFY25

9MFY25

20 20

11 9 10

8 9 8 8 7

LICHF

PNBHF

Source: MOFSL, Company;

Note: YoY AUM growth for large HFCs

AAVAS

CANF

Repco

Source: MOFSL, Company;

Note: YoY AUM growth for affordable housing financiers

Exhibit 83: AUM growth for VFs moderated slightly because

of weak macros

9MFY24

FY24

Q1 2025

1HFY25

25 24

23 20

9MFY25

37 35

Exhibit 84: Gold loan growth picking up pace, aided by

higher gold prices, tonnage growth and customer additions

9MFY24

FY24

17 18

Q1 2025

1HFY25

9MFY25

21 21 21 20 19

SHFL

MMFS

CIFC

MUTH

MGFL

Source: MOFSL, Company

Note: YoY AUM growth for gold financiers

Source: MOFSL, Company

Note: YoY AUM growth for vehicle financiers

Exhibit 85: PAT (excl. PIEL) grew 5% YoY for our NBFC coverage universe*

INR m

AAVAS

ABCAP (NBFC)

ABCAP (HFC)

BAF

CANF

CIFC

Fivestar

HomeFirst

IIFL Finance

LTHF

LICHF

MMFSL

MASFIN

MGFL

Muthoot

PIEL

PNBHF

PFL

REPCO

SHFL

CREDAG

FUSION

SPANDANA

PFC

REC

Total (excl. PIEL)

3QFY25

2,533

17,339

2,900

93,826

3,447

28,869

5,399

1,631

12,352

25,283

20,001

19,113

1,487

15,909

27,214

8,248

6,905

6,141

1,978

55,896

4,749

2,245

2,739

46,942

51,331

4,56,228

NII

YoY (%) QoQ (%)

-22

-8

-1

-5

-3

-2

-34

-44

-13

-21

PPOP

PAT

NIM

3QFY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3QFY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3QFY25 YoY (bp) QoQ (bp)

1,945

23.3

-0.2

1,464

25.5

-1.0

6.7

-0.2

0.1

11,929

6.8

1.1

6,000

4.9

-4.6

5.9

-0.9

-0.2

1,208

25.6

4.3

1,098

9.6

5.8

4.1

-0.6

-0.2

78,057

27.1

6.8

43,082

18.4

7.3

9.7

-0.5

0.0

2,913

1.7

1.2

2,121

6.0

0.3

3.7

-0.2

-0.0

21,276

40.4

10.7

10,865

24.0

12.8

6.8

0.1

0.0

3,884

29.4

2.2

2,739

26.3

2.2

19.5

-0.0

0.1

1,396

27.2

10.7

974

23.5

5.6

-0.6

-0.1

5,925

-38.2

-30.5

408

-91.7

-125.9

3.4

-0.7

-0.4

14,781

10.5

-7.0

6,257

-2.1

-10.2

10.8

-0.1

-0.4

17,495

-7.2

0.4

14,320

23.1

7.8

2.7

-0.3

-0.0

12,217

15.0

2.1

8,995

62.7

143.4

6.7

-0.4

0.1

1,383

25.4

7.7

781

25.1

2.0

7.2

0.5

0.1

9,307

-0.6

-9.9

2,785

-51.6

-51.3

14.4

-0.9

-0.3

20,593

47.7

7.5

13,631

32.7

8.9

11.9

0.7

0.1

3,380

-53.8

6.7

386

-101.6

-76.3

7.1

0.7

0.5

5,795

16.0

3.6

4,833

42.8

2.9

3.7

0.2

0.0

3,731

6.5

33.6

187

-92.9

9.3

-1.2

0.2

1,443

5.4

5.6

1,066

7.2

-5.3

5.5

0.2

40,850

10.7

2.5

20,804

14.4

0.5

9.0

-0.4

-0.2

6,229

3.5

-7.3

-995

-128.2

-153.5

12.5

-0.6

-1.0

648

-75.1

-77.2

-7,193

-668.9

8.9

-2.6

784

-67.4

-65.6

-4,402

-445.5

13.1

-0.8

-0.9

51,538

16.8

-3.3

41,549

23.0

-4.9

3.8

-0.0

0.2

50,206

20.4

2.6

40,291

23.2

0.6

3.7

0.1

-0.0

3,65,533

15.1

0.6

2,11,657

5.4

1.8

Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. Indostar

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 86: Advances/AUM growth

INR b

AAVAS

ABCAP (NBFC)

ABCAP (HFC)

BAF

CANF

CIFC

Fivestar

HomeFirst

IIFL Finance

LTHF

LICHF

MMFSL

MASFIN

MGFL

Muthoot

PIEL

PNBHF

PFL

REPCO

SHFL

CREDAG

FUSION

SPANDANA

PFC

REC

Total

3QFY25

192

1,194

267

3,980

372

1,746

112

119

714

951

2,991

1,151

117

442

975

784

768

310

142

2,545

248

106

5,038

5,656

31,011

Advances/AUM

YoY (%)

19.6

21.1

61.5

28.0

9.1

30.5

25.2

32.6

-7.8

16.3

6.4

18.6

20.7

9.5

37.0

10.6

12.1

41.2

7.4

18.8

6.1

-0.9

-14.1

10.2

13.7

16.0

QoQ (%)

4.6

4.1

15.0

6.5

1.5

6.0

2.3

6.4

6.6

2.3

1.5

2.4

6.0

-3.3

8.1

4.9

2.8

9.1

1.4

4.7

-1.3

-8.4

-15.2

2.1

3.6

3.7

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 87: Asset quality snapshot

Asset quality

(%)

AAVAS

ABCAP (NBFC)

ABCAP (HFC)

BAF

CANF

CIFC

HomeFirst

IIFL Finance

LTFH

LICHF

MMFSL

MASFIN

MGFL

Muthoot

PIEL

PNBHF

PFL

REPCO

SFL

CREDAG

FUSION

SPANDANA

PFC

REC

As on 2QFY25 (%)

GNPA

NNPA

1.1

0.8

2.5

1.4

1.3

1.06

0.5

0.9

0.5

2.8

1.6

1.7

1.3

2.4

1.1

3.2

1.0

3.1

1.6

3.8

1.6

2.4

1.6

2.4

2.1

4.3

2.8

1.4

1.2

0.8

2.1

0.3

4.0

1.6

5.3

2.6

2.4

0.8

9.4

2.5

4.9

1.1

2.7

0.7

2.5

0.9

PCR

28.7

46.0

57.1

46.0

44.5

26.7

55.5

70.6

49.3

59.5

39.1

53.5

32.7

84.5

60.7

51.7

69.5

76.2

79.7

73.6

65.1

As on 3QFY25 (%)

GNPA

NNPA

1.1

0.8

2.3

1.2

1.0

1.12

0.5

0.9

0.5

2.9

1.7

1.3

2.4

1.0

3.2

1.0

2.8

1.5

3.9

2.0

2.4

1.6

2.5

2.3

4.2

2.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

1.9

0.8

3.9

1.5

5.4

2.7

4.0

1.3

12.6

1.8

4.8

1.1

2.7

0.7

2.0

0.7

PCR

29.8

45.6

57.2

45.2

44.1

25.5

58.8

70.6

47.5

50.1

37.9

49.3

33.3

56.8

61.8

51.6

68.7

87.8

79.8

73.4

61.9

QoQ change (bp)

GNPA NNPA

PCR

115

-23

-12

-40

-31

-76

-40

-126

-7

330

-1

-31

-11

-185

-938

-120

-8

-18

-418

-5

-4

-25

-2767

-10

-8

108

-6

155

-77

318

-69

1163

-2

-3

-1

-23

-58

-14

-325

Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

FINANCIALS – CAPITAL MARKETS AND INSURANCE: Weak momentum for capital market players;

elevated claims impact profitability of general insurers; subdued VNB margins for life insurers



Slowdown in capital market activity:

Activity in the capital market space was mixed across segments during

3QFY25. F&O/cash volumes, which followed a decent trend in Oct’24/Nov’24, saw a decline of 35%/7% YoY in

Dec’24. The slowdown was also reflected in demat account additions at 9.9m in 3QFY25 vs 13.1m in 2QFY25.

The implementation of F&O regulations led to a 20% YoY/14% QoQ decline in the number of orders for

ANGELONE. ANGELONE now expects an 18-20% hit on income due to the implementation of F&O regulations,

compared to a 13-14% hit guided earlier.

Minimal impact of regulations for exchanges:

Stable options premium ADTO during the quarter, an

improvement in the premium-to-notional turnover ratio despite regulatory impacts, and market share gains

benefitted BSE’s top-line and profitability. Star MF continued to report healthy performance, with a 67% YoY

jump in volumes and revenue surging 2x. A surge in commodity volumes during 3QFY25 (102% YoY growth in

total ADT), driven by rising participation, new product launches, and an increase in turnover/client, led to strong

revenue growth for MCX. Options ADT surged 116% YoY to INR2.1t, largely propelled by 394%/89% YoY growth

in bullion/energy contracts. Futures ADT rose 32% YoY to INR289b, fueled by 28%/26%/91% YoY growth in

bullion/energy contracts/base metals.

Robust flow trajectory in asset management:

QAAUM of the MF Industry reached INR68.6t at the end of

Dec’24, +39% YoY, with the share of equity QAAUM growing to 57% from 53% as of Dec’24. Industry SIP flows

continued to gain traction, with INR771b flows in 3QFY25 vs. INR714b in 2QFY25. All AMCs maintained an

upward growth outlook for SIP flows (INR265b), despite weak market sentiments. The yield trajectory for the

industry has been improving (flattish to marginal decline), owing to: 1) corrective actions for commissions, 2)

increased TER in a few debt schemes, and 3) a decline in AUM due to MTM, leading to an increase in TER. Other

income for all players was impacted due to adverse equity market movements. The consistent growth

momentum in the industry resulted in a 40% YoY growth in CAMS’ PAT, supported by strong growth in the MF

business and an improving mix of equity AUM in the total MF AUM (55.3% vs 49.8% in 3QFY24). 360ONE

continued to witness strong ARR flows, offsetting the sequential decline in ARR yields.

Surrender charges hit lower than expected; VNB margins impacted by product mix:

Private life insurance

players reported decent premium growth. The impact of surrender charges on the margins of private life

insurers was minimal, as guided by managements. However, the shift in product mix towards ULIPs led to a

contraction in VNB margins during the quarter. HDFCLIFE/SBILIFE/ IPRU reported APE growth of 12%/13%/28%

YoY. VNB margins for HDFCLIFE/ SBILIFE/ IPRU contracted 140bp/46bp/170bp YoY.

Weak growth in premiums, partly due to regulations:

The general insurance industry’s growth rate is currently

on a slow trajectory, due to 1) weak infrastructure investments, 2) slow credit growth, 3) weak trends in motor

sales growth, and 4) change in accounting norms for the long-term business. STARHEAL has repriced 65% of its

retail health portfolio to offset the impact of medical inflation. It has already adopted the 1/365 method for URR

and, hence, expects no significant impact of the 1/n regulation. ICICIGI’s retail health segment saw strong

growth due to new product launches, while its group health segment posted weak growth due to lower

attachment of credit-linked products and rising competitive intensity. The motor segment’s loss ratios improved

considerably due to reserve releases. ICICIGI/STARHEAL registered a YoY NEP growth of 17%/15%, while their

PAT grew 68%/dipped 26% YoY.

Valuation and view:

Capital market activities slowed down due to weak market sentiments and regulatory changes.

We believe that the impact of F&O regulations will be transient in nature and affect the profitability of players like

ANGELONE in the short term. Following the resetting of the base in 4QFY25, we expect a gradual recovery in activity.

While ANGELONE would be a big beneficiary of the recovery, BSE is expected to sustain its outperformance going

forward. Given the market correction, AUM growth for AMCs, CAMS, and KFin will be restricted. However, the rising

share of non-MF businesses and stable yields should help cushion the impact. Wealth managers will be impacted by

MTM, but inflows are expected to remain strong. Life insurance companies should see an improvement in VNB

margins as the product mix shifts towards retail protection and annuities. Slower auto sales growth and weak capex

are likely to impact growth prospects for general insurance players. Our top picks in capital markets are BSE,

ANGELONE, and HDFC AMC. In insurance, our preference continues to be HDFCLIFE and SBILIFE.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Surprises:

HDFCAMC, ABSL AMC, 360 ONE WAM

Misses:

IPRU, CDSL, NAM, MCX

Guidance highlights:



360ONE:

The acquisition of B&K Securities (4.2% dilution) adds research capabilities and provides an entry into

IB. With cost alignment, the acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive. Revenue mix outlook: TBR at 20-25%, NII

at 20%, and core ARR income at 60%. AUM growth guidance is 20-25%, with 10-12% from net flows. The ET

Money acquisition has secured regulatory approval, with a target of 25-30% revenue growth and 30-40% PAT

growth.



ANGELONE:

Management expects ~18-20% impact on broking revenue from F&O regulations, with mitigation

possible through pricing actions and other levers. Additionally, the increase in lot size regulation is expected to

drive higher activity in the cash segment, thus positively impacting revenues. Customer addition growth is

expected to remain intact. The company has been actively progressing in diversified streams.



CAMS:

Non-MF revenue share declined to 12.3%, as growth in the MF segment outpaced that of non-MF

revenues. The company aims to raise non-MF contribution to 20% in 2-3 years, with strong growth expected in

the CAMPay/CAMSKRA/AIF segments. It expects a >3.5% decline in yields in FY26, (a periodic industry

adjustment every 6-7 years), with no major EBITDA margin impact. The expenses are expected to largely remain

stable, with employee/opex at 32-33%/8-8.5% of revenue.



BSE:

Growth will be driven by improved premium turnover quality, lower settlement fees from reduced

contracts, increased participation in long-term contracts, and colocation rack implementation. The impact of

regulations led to a 95% decline in Bankex notional volumes, while Sensex volumes saw a minimal decline.

Premium turnover remained stable, with higher turnover on non-expiry days.



NUVAMA:

Continued focus on annuity and ARR assets in the private business, along with MPIS in the wealth

business, resulted in robust flows and an increase in clients. Investment in technology, RM additions, and

geographic expansions continue to remain key focus areas across businesses.



HDFC AMC:

It aims to establish a presence across all SEBI-approved segments, catering to both institutional and

individual investors. Management plans to strengthen its market share by revamping its existing product suite

rather than launching new products. The company is optimistic about new asset class regulations, viewing them

as an opportunity for greater flexibility and risk-reward optimization. Expense growth is expected to be in the

range of 12-15% YoY.



NIPPON AMC:

NAM has rationalized the Large and Multi-Cap schemes (~50% of AUM Book) to mitigate the

impact of the telescopic structure on yields. Further rationalizations will be evaluated to manage yield decline.

On the product side, the focus will be on launching more passive funds. Internationally, NAM is collaborating

with subsidiaries and planning additional launches to drive revenue and profit growth.



ICICIGI:

The impact of 1/n regulation has been passed on to distributors. The company will continue to evaluate

price hikes in the health segment while maintaining a comfortable retail indemnity loss ratio of 65-70%. It

follows a calibrated approach in the employer-employee segment due to pricing pressure. Competitive intensity

in the motor segment has slowed growth. A motor TP price hike is expected, subject to MORTH and IRDAI

approval.



STARHEAL:

The company already follows the 1/365 method for URR, thus no significant impact is expected. The

claims ratio remains high due to increased claims and medical inflation; however, the repricing of 65% of the

retail health portfolio may offer relief over the next few quarters. The newly launched ‘Super Star’ is the top-

selling product on digital platforms, web aggregators, and digital partners.



HDFCLIFE:

Management expects a 20-30bp margin impact from surrender charge regulation, well below the

100bp guidance. 4Q growth and margins are expected to remain stable with seasonality and an unchanged

product mix. ULIP traction may decline with weak market sentiment for 9-12 months, but the company

maintains a balanced diversification strategy.



SBILIFE:

No changes have been made to the commission structure due to the minimal impact of the new

surrender guidelines, as the product mix is skewed towards ULIP. The company plans to add 40 (40 added in the

last 12 months) additional agents in tier 3 and 4 locations, further increasing the number of agents. It has guided

for individual APE/ total APE/absolute VNB/VNB margins at 15-17%/10-11%/higher single digit/27-29%.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



LIC:

Management expects VNB margin to expand, driven by: 1) a shift to non-par products, 2) commission

payout changes, 3) premium rate revisions for lower-margin products, and 4) a higher minimum ticket size for

low-persistency products. APE growth will be supported by an increase in both ticket size and policy count. The

focus on non-par growth has driven its share in individual APE to 27.3% (vs. 14% in 9MFY24).

3QFY25

9,346

5,879

4,451

3,754

8,895

7,736

3,014

6,050

7,229

2,370

2,850

3,697

2,900

2,781

Revenue

YoY (%)

110

QoQ (%)

-9

-2

3QFY25

7,639

3,857

2,743

1,906

4,141

4,358

1,931

2,856

3,335

1,070

659

EBITDA

YoY (%)

140

QoQ (%)

-31

-1

-4

3QFY25

6,414

2,953

2,245

1,736

2,816

2,187

1,600

2,749

2,527

773

482

1,241

902

1,298

3QFY25

7,244

2,151

3QFY25

4,149

3,249

5,508

698

1,10,565

PAT

YoY (%)

-15

111

PAT

YoY (%)

-26

PAT

YoY (%)

-54

QoQ (%)

-18

-7

-34

-37

-2

-6

-20

QoQ (%)

-4

-50

INR m

AMCs

HDFC

NAM

ABSL

UTI

Broking/Exchanges

ANGELONE

BSE

MCX

Wealth Management

360 ONE WAM

Nuvama

Anand Rathi

Prudent Corporate

RTA

CAMS

KFIN Technologies

CDSL

General Insurance

ICICIGI

STARHEAL

Life Insurance

HDFCLIFE

IPRU

SBILIFE

MAXFIN

LIC

-14

Gross Premium

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

64,745

-7

37,961

-13

APE

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

35,690

-7

24,380

-3

69,400

21,080

-3

99,500

-24

-40

1,728

1,306

1,606

-20

Underwriting Profit/(Loss)

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

-1,523

-490

-143

VNB

3QFY25

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

9,300

-1

5,170

-12

18,700

4,890

-4

19,260

-27

-35

HEALTHCARE: In line 3Q; sustained EBITDA growth despite seasonal headwinds/decline in US sales



Our coverage companies (excluding hospitals) reported in line sales/EBITDA/PAT in 3QFY25. On an aggregate basis

for the pharma segment, despite moderate growth of 2.7% in the US, sales/EBITDA/PAT grew 10.5%/21.3%/24.6%

YoY. EBITDA margins expanded 460bp YoY for 3QFY25. While FY24 was strong with Sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of

17%/26%/30%, 9MFY25 saw further momentum with revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 10%/20%/23% on a YoY

basis.

Overall performance at the aggregate level was driven by: a) a sustained contribution from niche products in the

US generics segment, b) demand tailwind in chronic therapies, and c) elevated inventory levels of raw materials,

which helped keep their prices in check. The aggregate performance was partly affected by reduced support from

acute therapies.

In the overall listed hospital space, Revenue/EBITDA growth has been on a robust uptrend, recording 22%/24%

YoY, driven by an increase in volume growth (up 14% YoY) and supported by an ARPOB growth of 7% YoY.

Occupancy inched up 100bp YoY to 61% for 3QFY25. During the quarter, there was an addition of ~4,800 operating

beds in the listed hospital space on a YoY basis. Notably, ~1,690 beds were added on a QoQ basis. From the

3QFY25 performance perspective, APHS/MAX/MEDANTA were above our estimates. Medanta revenue growth was

largely driven by volume, while ARPOBs remained largely stable.

On the operational level, 13 companies reported better-than-expected EBITDA performance.

PIRAMAL/LAURUS/GLAND/ALKEM beat our earnings estimates by 48%/24%/19%/15% for the quarter. ERIS and

ZYDUS missed our EBITDA estimates by 8%/7% for 3QFY25.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Out of 24 companies, 12 reported a better-than-expected performance. LAURUS/IPCA/CIPLA beat our earnings

estimates by 47%/25.1%/15% for the quarter. 5 out of 20 companies delivered a miss on estimates. Despite strong

operational growth, PIRAMAL missed our estimates by 65.8% for the quarter, owing to the high tax burden.

Further, MANKIND missed our estimates by 24.1% owing to the high interest burden.

US sales

witnessed moderate growth of of 2.7% YoY (in cc terms) to USD2.2b, on an aggregate basis, for

companies under our coverage. Temporary lower off-take of niche products, lack of approvals (43 approvals in

3QFY25 vs 49 in FY24), increased USFDA observations, and steady price erosion in the base business led to a YoY

moderation in US generics sales for the quarter.

Among our coverage companies, despite a lower off-take of g-Revlimid, ZYDUSLIF delivered the highest YoY

growth of 29% in US sales, led by Mirabegron sales, volume expansion in the base business, and new launches.

LUPIN’s US segment delivered 14% YoY growth, aided by the strong momentum in respiratory products,

including Tiotropium/Albuterol, and new product launches like Mirabegron/Doxycycline. SUNP reported a 0.6%

YoY decline in growth in US sales, owing to lower g-Revlimid sales. ALKEM contracted 7.3% YoY during the

quarter. ARBP witnessed a 3.5% decline in US sales, driven by lower business from g-Revlimid, reduced

production at the Eugia site, and lower transient product sales. Further, TRP declined 3% YoY due to slow

approval and the ramp-up of the Dahej facility and Indrad plant, which was offset by new launches.

On an overall basis, our coverage companies received approvals for 58 ANDAs (43 final approvals and 15

tentative approvals) in 3QFY25.

On an aggregate basis,

Domestic Formulation (DF)

exhibited YoY growth of 16.5% in 3QFY25, driven by strong

growth in Chronic therapies, which was offset by lower off-take in acute therapy. Among therapies,

Urology/Cardiac/Derma/Ophthal /Anti Diabetic delivered 14.2%/12.1%/11%/9.9%/8.9% YoY growth,

outperforming IPM (7.4% YoY growth). However, Anti-infectives/Respiratory/Gynae underperformed IPM by

530bp/300bp/440bp. Among our coverage companies, LUPIN/DRRD/IPCA delivered 14.8%/14.1%/13.4% YoY for

3QFY25. ERIS delivered 49.6% YoY growth, partly due to acquisitions.

Among our coverage companies that have reported earnings so far, eight have seen marginal earnings upgrades,

while 10 have seen earnings downgrades, with five experiencing massive downgrades. Moderate upgrades in

FY25/FY26/FY27 earnings were seen for MEDANTA (2.6%/4%/2.5%), LAURUS (4.7%/2.3%/2.7%), and MAXH

(2.6%/4.8%/2.8%). Conversely, PIRAMAL (62%/52.7%/43.5%) and BIOCON (83.2%/13%/3.5%) witnessed

maximum downgrades, while GRANULES (8.2%/6.3%/6.2%), MANKIND (12.3%/8.5%/5.8%), and APOLLO

(3.1%/4.2%/4.7%) witnessed marginal downgrades in earnings estimates.

Top picks:

Sun Pharma, Max Healthcare, Medanta, IPCA Lab

Surprises:

LAURUS, IPCA, CIPLA, GLAND, ALKEM, MEDANTA

Misses:

PIRAMAL, BIOS

Guidance highlights



SUNP

has reduced its guidance for R&D spending to sub-7% from 7-8% earlier. The trial related to Leqselvi is

expected to start in Apr’25. SUNP remains focused on new introductions, which will be one of the growth drivers

for the DF market.



DRRD

expects to file abatacept biosimilar in Dec’25 for US markets. It expects steady growth momentum in the

Russian market. DRRD indicated that Canada, India, and Brazil will be the initial focus markets for Semaglutide

over the next 12-18 months. It expects SGA expenses to be 28% of sales in FY25.



DIVI’s

Phase 2 of Kakinada will be commissioned in the next six months. The company has shifted to the new tax

regime, resulting in a lower tax rate of 19% in 3QFY25. DIVI indicated that logistics costs are softening, given the

ease of geopolitical pressures and gradual return to the shorter route of the global supply chain.



CIPLA

aims to end FY25 with higher-than-guided EBITDA margin of 24.5%- 25.5%. It has filed g-Advair from its US

facility and expects a launch in 1HFY26, subject to the USFDA inspection and approval. The company expects to

launch g-Abraxane in 2HFY26, indicating some delays. CIPLA expects Symbicort approval in 18 months.



BIOS

maintains growth outlook for 2HFY25 and FY26 at the group level. It expects to sustain EBITDA margin at

22-23% over the next 18-24 months at the BBL level. It plans to launch bUstekinumab in the US/EU market in

Feb’25.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



LPC

expects EBITDA margin to be 23-23.5% for FY25. It expects a double-digit YoY growth in the US business vs.

the earlier guidance of a single-digit YoY growth for FY25. R&D spending will be INR18b for FY25, implying R&D

expense to be higher for 4QFY25.

ZYDUSLIF

aims to maintain momentum in g-Revlimid sales in FY26. It expects high single-digit growth in the US

business over the next 12-15 months. ZYDUSLIF is set to commercialize CUTX-101 after the USFDA approval.

APHS

has secured all the necessary regulatory approvals for insurance products through Apollo 24/7, and the

business will be reflected from 4QFY25 onwards. Pune, Kolkata, and Delhi are set to begin in 1HFY26, followed

by Gurgaon and Hyderabad in 2H. Kolkata/Delhi are expected to achieve EBITDA break-even in 12M.

LAURUS

has reiterated its 20% EBITDA margin guidance for FY25. It expects 4QFY25 to witness a further scale-up

in business compared to 3Q. The tech transfer for the KRKA JV is on track, with fully expanded formulation lines

set to come online by Dec’25.

GLAND

intends to add one more line to produce 100m dosages per annum, with the capex largely completed.

Some capacity will be commercialized in FY26 for the ROW/Canadian markets, while the majority will start by

end-FY27. Gland remains confident that the Cenexi business will be EBITDA positive in FY26.

TRP

will commence the dispatches of insulin CMO sales in Jan’25. 4QFY25 will witness additional business due to

the spillover from the earlier quarter. It aims to maintain a 32.5% EBITDA margin in 4QFY25. The company

expects high single-digit YoY growth in its Germany revenue in FY25, led by incremental tender wins.

IPCA

has guided a standalone EBITDA margin of 23-24% and a consolidated EBITDA margin of 19.0-19.5% for

FY25. IPCA has seven to eight products in the pipeline for the US market. Unichem – 3/4 product launches can

be expected on an annual basis for the next 4-5 years.

MAXHEALTH

expects the Dwarka hospital to achieve break-even within six months of launch in Dec’24. MAXH

plans to commission its 500-bed ‘built-to-suit’ Thane hospital by CY28. By 3QFY26, 300 beds at the Sector 56

Gurgaon hospital are likely to be completed.

MEDANTA

will lease a 110-bed newly-built hospital in Ranchi. It aims to invest about INR500m in medical

equipment at this site and commence operations from 1QFY26. The Noida Hospital will commence in the next

1Q/2QFY26.

Exhibit 89: DF sales grew 16.5% YoY in 3QFY25

DF sales growth YoY (%)

11.6

10.9 10.1

2.7

-2.7

14.0

6.8 6.7

16.5

Exhibit 88: US sales up 2.7% YoY in 3QFY25 (CC terms)

Growth YoY (%)

26.5

13.1

9.7

8.1 9.5 6.6

8.1

12.1 10.1

5.2

(3.4)

0.6 (0.2)

13.2

10.5

14.1

11.3

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 90: 43 final ANDAs approved on an aggregate basis for our coverage universe in

3QFY25

1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0

Approval

Tentative Approval

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 91: Aggregate EBITDA up 21.3% YoY to INR195b in 3QFY25 for the pharma universe

Aggregate EBITDA (INRb)

250

Aggregate EBITDA Growth (%)

37.0

20.9

16.7

45.0

31.4

35.0

200

22.2

150

100

1.8

127

3.3

117

4QFY22

114

(12.6)

1QFY23

3.9

136

2QFY23

8.7

10.8

17.3

21.3

25.0

15.0

5.0

138

3QFY23

129

4QFY23

156

1QFY24

164

2QFY24

161

3QFY24

170

4QFY24

190

1QFY25

193

2QFY25

195

3QFY25

(5 .0)

(1 5.0)

3QFY22

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA/SOLARA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 92: Aggregate PAT up 24.6% YoY in 3QFY25 for pharma companies under our coverage

Aggregate PAT (INRb)

140

Aggregate PAT Growth (%)

49.6

31.9

20.5

21.6

29.3

24.6

60.0

50.0

120

40.0

100

1.2

5.2

(16.1)

(9.2)

(0.9)

(0.1)

104

109

119

15.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

120

122

(1 0.0)

(2 0.0)

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA/SOLARA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 93: USFDA inspection history of our coverage companies for the quarter

Company

Alembic

Granules

Biocon

Zydus Lifesciences

Cipla

Lupin

Inspection Date

Nov-24

Oct-24

Jun-24

Nov-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Oct-24

Inspection Facility

OSD F4- Jarod

Injectable and oral solid F-2 -Panelav

FD - Gagillapur

Unit V Facility

Drug Substance Facility- Bengaluru

Transdermal manufacturing facility

Virgonagar- Bengaluru

Goa

Biotech Facility- Pune

Outcome

Observations

Form 483

No Form 483

EIR

OAI

EIR

NAI

EIR

VAI

EIR

VAI

Form 483

EIR

VAI

Form 483

Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 94:

Performance of top therapies in Dec’24 - (INR b)

Company

IPM

Cardiac

Anti-Infectives

Gastro Intestinal

Anti Diabetic

Respiratory

Pain / Analgesics

Vitamins/Minerals/Nutrients

Derma

Neuro / Cns

Gynaec.

Antineoplast/Immunomodulator

Ophthal / Otologicals

Urology

Hormones

One

MAT Market

YoY growth (%) in the last eight quarters

Growth

month

Dec'24 share

(%)

value

(%)

Mar'23 Jun'23 Sep'23 Dec'23 Mar'24 Jun'24 Sep'24 Dec'24 Dec'24

2,293 100.0

7.6

3.5

9.2

7.1

8.1

5.7

9.0

8.2

7.4

6.5

294

12.8

11.9

7.0

10.4

9.3

8.4

10.9

12.5

12.1

10.3

251

10.9

3.4

6.0

10.4

0.1

7.8

-3.1

6.5

8.0

2.2

4.4

246

10.7

8.7

-1.9

5.5

8.6

9.4

5.5

11.5

9.9

7.6

5.7

204

8.9

8.2

0.5

6.6

4.8

5.7

7.1

7.6

9.1

8.9

7.4

182

7.9

1.5

30.2

11.6

0.0

5.5

-2.8

1.7

2.8

4.4

7.7

183

8.0

7.5

-1.6

11.0

7.3

8.3

5.9

8.4

7.7

5.5

179

7.8

7.9

-4.5

6.5

7.4

8.6

6.6

8.8

8.0

7.9

6.5

160

7.0

9.7

-3.0

8.5

5.6

3.5

8.1

9.8

9.7

11.0

7.5

138

6.0

8.3

2.9

9.3

8.2

8.8

8.0

8.4

9.3

7.7

5.7

112

4.9

4.3

-1.6

5.5

8.3

6.8

5.2

6.2

2.8

3.0

0.0

2.6

15.9

11.0

21.7

25.6

24.3

21.6

21.1

11.8

10.5

9.1

1.9

3.5

2.2

10.0

20.0

0.9

4.0

5.2

-3.8

9.9

8.7

2.2

13.8

5.4

14.8

14.4

12.4

14.0

13.8

13.2

14.2

10.4

1.5

5.4

10.2

11.7

8.0

6.1

3.2

8.7

5.3

4.5

4.3

Source: IQVIA, MOFSL

Infrastructure: Sluggish awarding activity during 9MFY25; delays in appointed dates hurt execution



Execution deteriorates YoY in 3Q amid delays in appointed dates and sluggishness in awarding activity:

Infrastructure companies within our coverage universe (excluding IRB) reported 19% YoY revenue de-growth in 3Q

FY25, primarily because of delays in land acquisition and subsequent delays in Appointed Date (AD) for several

projects and sluggishness in project awarding by NHAI. KNR/GRIL’s revenue declined 22%/17% YoY during 3QFY25.

GRIL faced a slowdown in execution primarily due to fewer projects under execution. NHAI awarding was

sluggish over 9MFY25, and both KNR and GRIL are exploring non-road infrastructure opportunities such as power

transmission projects, water projects, and solar EPC projects to diversify their order book. The management teams

of KNR and GRIL have guided a decline in FY25. Execution is likely to improve from FY26E onwards across our

coverage companies.

Awarding activity remains subdued in YTDFY25; pipeline robust:

Awarding activity by NHAI has been subdued

with ~1,600km of projects awarded in YTDFY25 vs. a target of ~5,000km of awarding in FY25. While there is a

huge tender pipeline, order inflows could kick in materially only in FY26. Management of GRIL has guided an

order inflow target of INR170b in FY25, while that of KNRC has guided an order inflow of INR60-80b in the next

3-4 months. Despite sluggishness in awarding activity by NHAI, both companies will be focused on diversification

of the order book towards non-roads segments.

Elevated input costs keep margins under check:

Companies within our coverage reported a 20bp YoY improvement

in EBITDA margin. Though steel and aluminum prices have corrected ~30% from their highs in Apr’22, the prices

continue to remain at elevated levels. Cement prices have dipped ~10% from their highs in Oct’23.

Focus on asset monetization:

NHAI had set a monetization target of ~INR540b at the beginning of FY25 and has

established an asset monetization cell for the same. NHAI sets up an asset monetization cell for the same. The

cell will advise on planning, conduct market analysis, and identify high-revenue assets. In line with the National

Monetization Plan (NMP), NHAI’s total asset monetization program has surpassed INR1t, which includes

INR499b through TOT, INR259b through Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT), and INR420b through

securitization.

Top picks:

Awarding activities by NHAI and execution have been muted and are expected to improve only in FY26.

Companies with decent order backlogs, a solid financial position, and involvement in multiple segments are well-

positioned to benefit in the near to medium term. Our preferred choice in the space is KNR.

Guidance



GRIL:

The company has bid for projects worth ~INR140b and expects awarding of INR21b in roads by Feb’25.

FY25 order inflow is revised downwards to INR170b from INR200b earlier, with FY26 guidance at INR200b,

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



including 25-30% from transmission and ~40% from roads. It forecasts a ~10-12% decline in revenue in FY25 but

a 9-12% growth in FY26 driven by the EPC projects.

KNR:

Management expects a 10-15% revenue decline in FY25 due to a lower order book and payment delays but

anticipates recovery to INR35-40b in FY26 and further growth in FY27. It targets INR80-100b in new orders and

monetization of four HAM assets by Dec’25. KNRC plans to expand into mine development and BOT toll projects

with Adani and Cube Highways while bidding across highways, irrigation, and urban infrastructure projects in

South India.

Exhibit 95: Revenue dipped ~19% YoY for our coverage

universe

Infra aggregate sales (INR b)

31.7

33.3

25.2

27.1

33.3

27.2

19.8

22.1

Exhibit 96: Gross margin remained flat on a YoY basis

Infra aggregate gross margin (%)

27.1

31.2

26.5

27.6

26.3

25.9

26.2

28.0

26.5

27.3

Exhibit 97: EBITDA expanded on YoY and QoQ basis

Infra aggregate EBITDA margin (%)

15.9

15.8

14.3

13.8

15.1

Exhibit 98: APAT margin improved on a YoY basis

Infra aggregate APAT margin (%)

13.3

14.0

9.2

10.1

10.7

8.9

8.7

14.1

12.9

10.4

11.7

Note: Data in charts above is for our coverage universe excluding IRB

Logistics: Volumes remain muted amid a slowdown in consumption; private port operators witness a

soft growth in tonnage



Logistics activity remains muted; cargo volumes at ports remain subdued due to geopolitical challenges:

Logistics activity remained subdued due to challenges like a slowdown in consumption, market fluctuations, and

rising labor costs. Express logistics saw volume decline owing to muted demand and competitive pressure.

Logistics companies (excluding APSEZ and JSWINFRA) achieved ~8% YoY revenue growth. Volume growth

improved in Jan’25, and organized freight operators expect the volume momentum to improve in the remaining

months of FY25. Multimodal logistics operators outperformed pure freight and express logistics. APSEZ and

JSWINFRA reported 4% and 5% YoY growth in cargo volumes, respectively. In 9MFY25, APSEZ managed ~27% of

the country’s total cargo and ~45% of container cargo. With volume ramp-up at recently acquired

ports/terminals, volumes are expected to be strong ahead for APSEZ and JSWINFRA.

Margins remain flattish on a YoY basis due to muted volume growth and high operating expenses:

Gross

margin for our coverage universe, barring APSEZ and JSWINFRA, stood at 29.4% in 3QFY25 (up 10bp YoY but

down 80bp QoQ). Flat margins on a YoY basis could be attributed to muted volumes during the quarter while

operating expenses such as fuel prices and toll charges remained high. EBITDA margin for our coverage universe,

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



excluding APSEZ and JSWINFRA, contracted 10bp YoY and 90bp QoQ to 13.2%. APSEZ’s margin stood at 60.3%

(down 20bp YoY and 150bp QoQ), while JSWINFRA’s margin was ~50% (down 150bp YoY and 240bp QoQ).

Organized players with a pan-India network and technological advantage to gain higher market share:

The

introduction of GST and e-way bills, and reduced e-invoicing turnover limits have driven businesses to partner

with organized logistics providers. Express companies are expanding their infrastructure and digitalizing

operations. This positions them to capture higher volumes. The government's port privatization efforts offer

opportunities, with APSEZ and JSWINFRA well-placed to benefit due to their strong balance sheets.

Top picks:

JSWINFRA is our preferred choice in this space.

Guidance



APSEZ:

In FY25, APSEZ expects cargo volumes of 460-480mmt, revenue of INR290-310b, EBITDA of INR188-190b,

and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.2-2.5x. It plans a capex of INR115b, primarily for ports, logistics, and

renewables, including 1,000MW of solar and wind power with imported panels from China.



JSWINFRA:

Port capacity is set to reach 400 MTPA by FY30, with the current capacity rising to 174 MTPA.

Management targets INR80b revenue, INR20b EBITDA, and INR90b capex for JSW Ports Logistics Ltd. EBITDA

margins stand at 50-53% for port cargo and over 85% for the UAE oil tank terminal, boosting overall profitability.



VRLL:

Management expects 12-13% revenue growth in 4QFY25, driven by better realizations, with 1% volume

growth. In FY26, revenue is projected to grow 12-13%, with volume growth normalizing to 8-10%. EBITDA

margins should remain around 18%, aided by bulk fuel savings. Capex will normalize to INR1.5-1.6b in FY26 after

higher spending on hub acquisitions in FY25.



TRPC:

It expects 10-15% revenue and PAT growth in FY25, driven by the supply chain segment. The company

plans INR2.5b in capex for FY25, including INR800m for advance payments for new ships. Capex for FY26/FY27 is

expected to be around INR2.5b.



BDE:

CY24 capex was INR622m, far below the INR13b budget due to market conditions. Margins are expected to

remain stable or improve. Surface express is expected to grow in double digits, while air express is anticipated to

grow at ~5%.



CCRI:

EXIM volumes saw double-digit growth in Jan’25, a trend expected to continue through Mar’25. CCRI has

commissioned five MMLPs under DFC to drive future growth. With robust EXIM and domestic demand, CCRI

aims to handle 5M TEUs in FY26.



MAHLOG:

The B2B express business is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven in the next two quarters. MLL

aims for INR100b revenue and 18% RoE by FY26, driven by 3PL growth and network expansion. Enterprise

mobility growth is anticipated to benefit from new airports in Noida and Navi Mumbai.



TCIE:

Weak volume growth, particularly from MSME customers, and higher costs led to a weak performance in 3Q.

TCIE has outlined a capex plan of INR5b over FY23-FY27, with INR3.1b allocated for 4QFY26 and FY27. The

multimodal express segment is expected to contribute 20-22% of total revenue over the next 2-3 years.

Exhibit 99: Sales improved ~8% YoY for our Coverage

Universe

Logistics aggregate YoY sales growth (%)

30.8

14.4

32.7

Exhibit 100: Gross margin remained flattish on a YoY basis

MOSL universe Logistics Gross margin (%)

33.2

10.0 8.4

6.0

-0.3

9.6 9.2 9.0 8.3

6.7

31.2

29.5

30.1

30.5

29.3

30.9

30.5

29.5

28.9

30.2

29.4

10.1 8.8

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 101: EBITDA margin remained flattish on a YoY basis primarily due to muted volume growth

16.3

MOSL universe Logistics EBITDA margin (%)

15.9

15.6

14.9

13.9

13.6

12.7

13.9

14.1

13.3

13.0

12.0

13.2

Note: Data in charts above is for our coverage universe excluding APSEZ & JSWINFRA

Source: Company, MOFSL

METALS: Weak NSR drags operating performance; muted input costs cushion margin contraction

Volumes improve QoQ across the board

Ferrous:

The companies within our coverage universe reported sales volume growth of 11% YoY and 6% QoQ. This

growth was primarily driven by the resuming of construction activity and softening imports, coupled with a low base

effect. Various management teams guided healthy volumes in 4QFY25 on account of the busy construction period.

Non-Ferrous:

HNDL’s domestic aluminum volume grew 2% YoY (+3% QoQ), while copper volume remained flat YoY

(+3% QoQ). Novelis (HNDL’s overseas aluminum business) saw a marginal volume dip of 1% YoY and 4% QoQ, caused

by moderate demand. Vedanta posted 3% YoY and 1% QoQ volume growth for the aluminum business, while the

domestic zinc business (HZ) saw a volume decline of 1% YoY (+2% QoQ) on account of the planned maintenance

shutdown. NACL reported alumina sales growth of 9% YoY and 32% QoQ due to demand-supply mismatch, while

metal sales dipped 7% YoY and 12% QoQ.

Mining:

COAL’s sales (dispatches) inched up 1% YoY and 16% QoQ to 194mt, driven by the resumption of mining

activity, while NMDC’s sales rose +5% YoY and 20% QoQ to 11.9mt.



Ferrous ASP declines QoQ; non-ferrous has benefitted from favorable pricing:

Aggregate revenue for the

ferrous companies under coverage grew 3% YoY and was flat QoQ as healthy volume growth was offset by weak

NSR. Apart from JSPL, the industry average realization declined by ~10% YoY and ~3% QoQ (JSPL ASP +2% QoQ

led by a higher long product mix). The weakness in ferrous pricing, especially flats was due to the higher imports.

Aggregate revenue for non-ferrous companies increased 12% YoY and 3% QoQ led by favorable pricing during

the quarter. HNDL reported revenue growth of +11% YoY and flat QoQ, whereas the HZ/VEDL revenue grew by

+18/10% YoY and +4% QoQ for both in 3QFY25.



Ferrous EBITDA/t has been hit by weak ASP QoQ; non-ferrous delivers strong growth:

a) Ferrous:

Aggregate

EBITDA for our coverage company declined 5% YoY due to weak ASP, while it grew 17% QoQ aided by healthy

volume growth. EBITDA/t for JSTL stood at INR8,314/t (down 30% YoY and 6% QoQ); similarly, JSPL reported an

EBITDA/t of INR11,494/t (down 27% YoY and 3% QoQ). Tata Steel’s EBITDA/t came in strong at INR9,268/t (+15%

YoY and 26% QoQ) led by a one-off other expense reversal of INR14b. Further, the EU’s operating loss reduction

from USD77/t to USD42/t benefited the company.

b) Non-ferrous:

EBITDA for non-ferrous companies surged

~37% YoY and 9% QoQ due to strong pricing and muted costs during the quarter. The biggest improvement was

visible in NACL, which benefited from higher alumina sales and favorable pricing.



Weak operating profit drags PAT for ferrous companies:

Aggregate APAT for ferrous companies declined 49%

YoY but jumped 64% QoQ in 3QFY25, fueled by better volumes. In contrast, non-ferrous companies’ aggregate

APAT increased 69% YoY and 8% QoQ during the quarter.



Capacity enhancement:

a) Ferrous:

TATA is doubling its domestic crude steel capacity to 40mt from 21mt. The 2BF at

Kalinganagar was commissioned, and other associate facilities will be commissioned in the coming years. Similarly, JSP

is doubling its finished steel capacity to 13.75mt (with a capex INR310b) from 7.25mt by FY26. JSTL’s 5MTPA

Vijayanagar integrated facility (Sinter and BF) was commissioned, and SMS has been under commissioning. JSTL's other

expansions, such as Dolvi phase-III and debottlenecking, are likely to take the capacity to 42mtpa by Sep’27E. SAIL plans

to increase its capacity from 20mtpa of crude steel to 35mtpa by the end of FY31 in a phased manner.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

b) Non-ferrous:

Novelis’s (HNDL) Bay Minette facility is expected to be completed in 2HCY26 and would take 18-24

months to fully ramp up. VEDL’s Lanjigarh Train-1 is ramping up steadily, and the ongoing Train-2 expansion of

1.5mtpa is expected to be completed in Q4FY25. NACL’s 1mtpa 5th stream alumina refinery expansion is underway

and is expected by Dec’25, also planned for a new aluminum smelter capacity of 0.5mtpa by FY30.



Top picks:

COAL and JSTL

Surprises:

SAIL and NACL

Guidance highlights:



TATA:

Management expects NSR for domestic operations to be flat QoQ in 4QFY25, while the Netherlands/UK

NSR to decline GBP60/t QoQ in 4QFY25 due to the renewal of annual contracts. Coal costs on a consumption basis

will fall by USD10/t QoQ for India operations and in the Netherlands costs are anticipated to be USD20/t QoQ

lower in 4QFY25. Considering the current pricing/demand environment, management expects the UK business to

break even soon.



JSTL:

Management foresees the coking coal costs to be USD10-15/t lower QoQ for 4QFY25 and indicated that

iron ore prices might soften. JSTL has guided for consolidated capex of ~INR160b in FY25. The commissioning of

three new mines is on track; one mine will be commissioned in 4QFY25 and the other two mines in 1QFY26.



JSP:

Coking coal cost is expected to be USD10/t lower in 4QFY25, and earnings are likely to be better in 4QFY25

driven by better volumes and realization. Management indicated that NSR will remain flat QoQ and iron ore

costs will moderate INR100-200/t in 4QFY25. Of the total ~INR310b capex announced for Angul, JSPL has spent

~INR236b so far, and the remaining INR74b will be spent in FY26. Management has proposed an additional

capex of INR160b for efficiency to be spent over FY26-28.



SAIL:

For 4QFY25, management expects coking coal costs to decline further by INR1,000/t QoQ. Management

guided to achieve a sales volume of 17.5mt for FY25. SAIL plans to expand capacity by 15mtpa with a total outlay

of INR1.1-1.15t by FY31, with phase-wise approvals. In Phase I, three plants (IISCO-Greenfield, Bokaro, and

Durgapur) have received Stage-1 approvals, and SAIL will be adding ~7.5mtpa with a capex outlay of INR550-

560b.



NMDC:

Management has guided for a volume of 16mt in 4QFY25, achieving its volume guidance of 50mt for

FY25. Going forward, management expects a volume of 53mt in FY26 and 60mt in FY27, with an incremental

loading of ~6-7mt from two new lines (line-4 in Bacheli and line-13 in Kirandul). Management indicated that

NMDC was able to hold up iron ore prices in a steel price downturn and aims to maintain the prices amid severe

headwinds. Management targets to complete the 2mtpa pellet plant (which could be upgraded to 6mtpa) by

CY25-end.



HNDL:

Hindalco’s coal cost remained stable, with 50% sourced through linkage and 50% from e-auctions.

Management guided that the new captive coal mines (Chakla + Meenakshi coal mine) will reduce the company's

coal costs by 30% for FY28. HNDL hedged ~35% of its aluminum at USD2,600/t for 4QFY25 and secured 12%

hedging at USD2,700/t for FY26. Global beverage cans’ demand remains strong. Strong demand in beverage

packaging shipments offsetting muted specialty and Europe and China automotive.



VEDL/HZ:

Earlier, the Gamsberg mine faced production constraints due to geotechnical issues and under-

stripping, which have now been largely resolved. Management expects alumina costs to be close to USD320-

325/t for the coming year. Management targets to exit Zinc COP at USD1,000/t by FY26-end and below

USD1,000/t by FY27-end. Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) is ramping up steadily, with the current run rate of 160-

175 KT copper per year, expected to reach 200 KT per year in FY26.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 102: Domestic spot steel spreads (USD/t) contracted

and currently below the LTA

Domestic HRC -RM Spreads

750

500

250

10-year Avg Spread

Exhibit 103: Coking coal (USD/t) moderated significantly

from the peak and now range-bound at USD200-210/t

800

600

400

200

Source: MOFSL, Steelmint

Exhibit 104: HRC (INR/t) has fallen to INR46,500/t on

account of elevated imports

97,000

Exhibit 105: Rebar (INR/t) prices resilient at 53,000/t level

with increasing construction activities post-monsoon.

80,000

65,000

79,000

61,000

43,000

25,000

50,000

35,000

20,000

Source: MOFSL, Steelmint

Exhibit 106: Aluminum prices at ~USD2,600/t

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Exhibit 107: Zinc prices slipped from USD3,100/t levels

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg

Exhibit 108: Copper prices back to USD9,000/t levels

12,500

10,500

8,500

6,500

4,500

Exhibit 109: Lead prices softened below USD2,000/t

3,100

2,700

2,300

1,900

1,500

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 110: EBITDA/t for steel companies under our coverage (consolidated)

EBITDA/t

JSW Steel

Tata Steel

SAIL

JSPL

1QFY24

12,340

7,186

4,250

14,283

2QFY24

12,438

6,037

4,429

11,372

3QFY24

11,967

8,031

5,638

15,705

4QFY24

9,100

8,271

3,879

12,162

1QFY25

9,003

9,059

5,536

13,585

2QFY25

3QFY25

8,869

8,314

7,343

9,268

3,111

4,582

11,893

11,494

Source: MOFSL, Company

OIL & GAS: OMCs – refining recovers, marketing remains robust; APM de-allocation dents CGD margins



Overall performance:

Revenue came in line with our estimate (flat YoY). Excluding OMCs, revenue was again in

line (flat YoY). EBITDA was also in line (flat YoY), with BPCL, GAIL, IOCL, and AEGISLOG missing our estimates.

Conversely, CSTRL, HPCL, IGL, and MRPL beat our estimates. Excluding OMCs, EBITDA was also in line (flat YoY).

Adjusted PAT was 7% below est. (down 11% YoY). Adjusted PAT, excluding OMCs, was in line (down 8% YoY).

RIL:

Its 3QFY25 standalone EBITDA was up 13% QoQ (4% YoY), driven by a slight improvement in volumes, higher

gasoil and ATF cracks, higher domestic product placement, and maximization of ethane feedstock cracking.

Consolidated EBITDA was also 4% above our estimate, driven by a recovery in Retail (EBITDA grew 9% YoY; 8%

beat) and O2C (+16% QoQ; 10% beat).

Upstream:

ONGC/OINL’s

3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate, as crude oil/gas sales came in line. Both

crude oil and natural gas production trends were flat QoQ/YoY.

OMCs – LPG under-recovery drags performance:

While

HPCL’s

EBITDA beat our estimate by 30%, primarily led by a

higher-than-estimated GRM,

IOCL’s

EBITDA missed our estimate by 11%, due to a lower-than-expected reported

GRM and high inventory losses.

BPCL’s

performance was largely in line with our expectations, as weaker-than-

expected refining performance was offset by robust marketing margins. In addition, their earnings continue to take

a significant hit due to the LPG under-recovery, amounting to INR31b/INR55b/INR31b for HPCL/IOCL/BPCL.

CGDs:

MAHGL/GUJGA’s

EBITDA came in line with our estimate on account of steady margins and strong volume

growth.

IGL’s

EBITDA beat our estimate by 12% due to higher margins and strong volume growth. EBITDA/scm

margins contracted to INR8.3/INR4.3/INR4.4 for MAHGL/IGL/GUJGA on account of APM twin de-allocation.

Volumes for MAHGL/IGL/GUJGA increased 12%/7%/3% YoY to 4.1/9.1/9.5mmscmd.

Gas utilities:

GAIL’s

EBITDA was 25% below our estimate, primarily due to weak gas marketing segment performance.

Petchem's EBITDA fell 27% YoY.

PLNG’s

EBITDA marginally missed our estimate by 5%; however, its total volumes

declined to 228Tbtu (est. of 249.5Tbtu, -2% YoY).

GUJS’

3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate, as lower-than-

estimated volumes were offset by higher-than-estimated tariffs.

Ratings and earnings revisions:

IGL upgraded to Neutral:

Since the downgrade in Feb’23, IGL has delivered a

negative return of 12% over the past two years. After the APM reallocation, the net reduction in APM allocation

now stands at ~0.9mmscmd, of which IGL is expected to receive 0.5mmscmd New Well (NW) gas from Feb’25. We

also believe that IGL’s current valuations are inexpensive. Hence, with volume and margin expectations at a weak

level, we upgrade the stock to neutral.

OMCs

– We raise our FY26 adjusted PAT estimates for HPCL/IOCL by

18%/16%, as we adjust opex for the current run rate.

Top picks:

GAIL

– During FY24-27, we estimate a 15% PAT CAGR driven by: 1) an increase in natural gas

transmission volumes to 154mmscmd in FY27 (120mmscmd in FY24); 2) a substantial improvement in the

petchem segment’s profitability over 2HFY25-FY27, as the new petchem capacity will be operational; and 3)

healthy trading segment profitability with guided EBIT of at least INR45b.

HPCL

– It remains our preferred pick

among the three OMCs. We see the following as key catalysts for the stock: 1) the demerger and potential listing

of the lubricant business, 2) the commissioning of its bottom upgrade unit, and 3) the commencement of the

Rajasthan refinery in 4QFY25-end.

OINL’s

production growth guidance remained robust, with drilling activity and

development wells in old areas contributing to this growth. OINL is also implementing new technologies to

increase production besides pursuing the Indradhanush Gas Grid connectivity. Capacity expansion for NRL (from

3mmt to 9mmt) is also expected to be completed by Dec’25, which will drive further growth.

Surprise:

CSTRL, GUJGA, HPCL, IGL, and MRPL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Misses:

AEGISLOG, BPCL, GAIL, GUJS, IOCL, OINL, and ONGC

Guidance highlights:



GAIL:

Management expects transmission volumes to grow ~10mmscmd in FY26 and remains hopeful of tariff hike

approval for the transmission business in 1QFY26. LPG production could drop 75tmt due to APM de-allocation in

4QFY25.



Upstream:

ONGC

aims to increase production at ~3.4% CAGR, reaching 42.44/ 44.51/45.61mmtoe in

FY25/FY26/FY27. In FY26, crude oil/gas production shall be 21.96/22.63mmtoe. This volume growth will be driven

by offshore projects: KG-DWN-98/2, Cluster –II. MHN redevelopment is expected to be commissioned in 4QFY25

itself, and the Daman Upside project is likely to be commissioned in Feb’26. Production from DSF II shall also

come up in Apr’27.

OINL’s

production volume guidance: FY25/FY26/FY27 oil production is likely to be 3.48mmt/

3.65mmt/4.0mmt. FY25/FY26/FY27 gas production is anticipated to be 3.3bcm/4.0bcm /5.0bcm. NRL's

petrochemical project is expected to achieve completion by Dec’28.



OMCs:

HPCL’s

management expects the mid-cycle SG GRM to be ~USD5-6/bbl, and its GRM would be at some

premium to SG GRM + USD2-3/bbl post-RUF unit commissioning at Visakh. Around INR130-140b p.a. capex shall

be incurred going forward (INR40b/ INR60b/ INR40b on Refining/Marketing/Equity contribution in JVs).

BPCL’s

petchem product slate post-Bina refinery expansion- PE/PP/PTA shall be 1.2mmt/0.45mmt/1.35mmt. The total

capex for the Andhra Pradesh coastal refinery project might be ~INR950b if approved. Further, management

stated that an annual capex of INR200b is expected in FY26. Capex shall increase from FY27 and amount to

~INR250b-260b going forward.



CGDs:

IGL

has secured ~1.65mmscmd contracts at competitive rates for sourcing R-LNG gas. Management

expects to end FY25 with volumes reaching 9.5mmscmd. Further, it expects volumes to grow 1mmscmd p.a.,

reaching 10.5mmscmd/11.5mmscmd in FY26/FY27.

MAHGL’s

management expects ~12.5%-13% YoY growth in

volumes in FY25. Further, it has guided for 10% YoY volume growth for FY26, with CNG being the key growth

driver. EBITDA margins are expected to range between INR9 and INR11 per scm moving forward.

GUJGA:

Amid

the recent APM de-allocation and elevated spot LNG prices, management has marginally downgraded its margin

guidance back to INR4.5-INR5.5 per scm. Management also guided a capex of INR8.5b/INR10b for FY25/FY26.

Exhibit 111: Implied gross marketing margin (INR/lit)

Implied marketing margin (INR/lit)

IOCL

BPCL

HPCL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 112: Reported refining margin (USD/bbl)

IOCL

32.0

23.0

14.0

5.0

-4.0

2.0

3.8

USD/bbl

6.0

8.0

21.2

8.2

4.0

9.5

5.5

HPCL

BPCL

SG GRM

7.1

6.2

6.3

7.3

3.5

Exhibit 113: Sales volume of CGDs (mmscmd)

Volumes mmscmd

9.8

4.1

2.7

1.1

5.5

6.3

2.1

2.8

6.8

2.9

GUJGA

IGL

MAHGL

9.7

8.7

3.8

11.0

8.8

8.6 9.0

3.9

4.0

11.4

12.1

10.0

11.4

9.9

9.8

7.6

7.2

3.1

7.7

3.3

7.7

3.2

7.9

3.4

8.1

3.5

7.3

8.1

3.4

8.9

8.3

3.4

9.2

8.2

3.4

9.3

8.3

3.6

9.2

8.5

3.7

9.5

9.1

4.1

5.3

2.4

Exhibit 114: EBITDA/scm trend for CGDs (INR)

EBITDA/scm

GUJGA

IGL

MAHGL

8.7

8.0

7.9

8.6

6.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

8.6

7.2

6.6

7.4 6.5

4.3

3.4

8.0

5.7

6.2

REAL ESTATE: Premium and Luxury mix to derive sales; launch delays drag estimates



Pre-sales increased 15% YoY:

In 3QFY25, our coverage universe reported bookings of INR353b, a 15% increase

YoY, due to seasonality as well as exceptional performance by a few key listed players contributing majorly to

pre-sales (DLFU, LODHA, OBER, BRGD, SRIN, and SIGNATUR), even when sales from other listed players were

considerably lower. These key players contributed ~70% of total reported bookings of our coverage universe and

DLF alone contributed to ~35%, mainly due to its ultra-luxury launch ‘The Dahlias’, which made ~INR120b. Even

though the overall booking area of listed players in our coverage universe was down ~17%, pre-sales were up

15% YoY, reflecting higher sales from the Premium and Luxury segment with higher ticket sizes. This indicates

that the demand for Premium and Luxury was strong.

Oberoi and Signature performed the best in terms of YoY growth, posting 144% and 119%, respectively, whereas

DLF performed best in terms of value, i.e. INR121b out of total reported bookings from our coverage universe of

INR353b.

Realization also improved 38% YoY due to higher sales from the Luxury and Premium segment.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Double-digit growth aspiration intact:

Our coverage universe posted a 43% CAGR in cumulative bookings over

FY21-24 and they aspire for 20-30% growth in FY25 despite a high base. Of this target, 9MFY25 has already

achieved ~67% of projected FY25 pre-sales. In 9MFY25, business development remained equally strong, led by

GPL, LODHA, and MLIFE, which added new projects worth GDV of INR235b, INR194b, and INR141b, respectively.

Consequently, companies have identified a vast launch pipeline for Q4FY25 and FY26, which can support their

future growth aspirations.

Launches dominated by few players:

Unlike 9MFY24, launches were low in 9MFY25 due to a delay in approvals

impacted by the state and national elections. Launches were up 13% and 38% for DLF and Godrej Properties,

while other listed players in our coverage universe experienced either a flat or declining trend. Prestige Estate

showcased a 60% decline in 9MFY25 launches over the previous period due to a lack of approvals. However, it

has ~INR300b of planned launches for Q4FY25, which will help achieve its FY25 pre-sales guidance. We expect

our coverage universe to launch ~130msf of projects in FY25.

Collections:

Total collections for 3QFY25 increased 28% YoY to INR208b. However, collection efficiency

(collections-to-sales) was down to 59% from 82% in 2QFY25, mainly due to a lack of completions caused by

elections, vs. TTM average of 64%. With progress in construction, we expect efficiency to further move north

going forward, resulting in higher collections.

P&L performance – mixed bag:

Aggregate revenue for the coverage universe increased 34% YoY to INR152b (8%

below our estimate). The individual performance was a mixed bag as Godrej / Macrotech / Brigade / Sobha /

Mahindra reported healthy revenue growth, while other players in our coverage were affected by lower project

deliveries. Cumulative EBITDA stood at INR43b, up 33% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 28% (flat vs 3QFY24).

View:

The operational performance of our coverage universe was below our expectations due to the impact of

delayed launches in pre-sales. We retain our FY25 pre-sales estimates (except for the upward revision for DLF

and OBER and reduction for Prestige and Sobha) for all the companies, but we will critically monitor launches as

many companies have expressed concerns regarding approval delays. We prefer BRGD, and SIGNATUR as our

top picks.

Positive Surprises:

DLF

Negative Surprises:

Sobha



Company commentary:



LODHA:

LODHA has ended its growth phase in Bengaluru with the success of two projects and plans to increase

its market share to 15% in a decade’s time as it did in other markets. It also executed a recent data center deal

at INR210m/acre (10m/acre more than guidance), which clearly showcases Palava as the data center hub for

LODHA. Additionally, the management is now evaluating a new city that can be a potential market and will

decide on it by FY25 end.



OBER:

The Jardin OGC launch at Pokhran Road, Thane, drove 70% of the sales, for which it witnessed strong

bookings of INR13.2b. Occupancy in the commercial portfolio increased to 77%, whereas ARR rose 24% YoY for

Hospitality. Retail malls saw a 12% YoY increase in revenue. Additionally, OBER plans to launch a new tower in

Borivali and Goregaon in 4QFY25 or FY26. It will launch its Gurugram, Adarsh Nagar, Worli, and Tardeo projects in

FY26.



DLFU:

DLFU launched its Ultra Luxury project named ‘The Dahlias’ with a total revenue potential of INR350b and

+70% gross margins. ~98% of sales in 3QFY25 were from this project, enabling the company to surpass FY25 pre-

sales guidance. DLF is confident of launching its Mumbai project in 4QFY25. Privana phase-3 and Goa will be

launched in FY26. Total projects with GDV INR704b are planned beyond FY25.



GPL:

GPL achieved a record-breaking pre-sales of INR288b in CY24, securing the top position amongst its peers.

The management remains confident about the sustainability of demand for a couple of years and highlighted

that it is in the early- to mid-stage of the cycle. GPL remains on track to meet or exceed its guidance for all key

parameters. The remaining inventory, set to be launched in Q4, is currently at INR64b. Upcoming launches are

expected in Hyderabad, Noida, Gurgaon, MMR, Pune, and Indore.



PEPL:

Lack of launches in residential led to poor pre-sales. However, realization improved 40% YoY. Launches for

The Prestige City Indrapuram NCR, Southern Star & Sunset Park Bangalore, Pallava Gardens Chennai, Prestige

Spring Heights Hyderabad, Beach Gardens Goa, and some small projects in Bangalore and Hyderabad have been

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



delayed to 4Q. Nautilus is also expected to be launched in 4QFY25. Overall PEPL guided for launches of GDV

INR300b in 4Q. An additional GDV of INR500b is in the planning stage.

BRGD:

Bel reported 60% YoY growth in pre-sales, which was in line with our estimate. With launches of 1.9msf

projects in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Mysore, BRGD recorded its highest-ever quarterly realization of

INR11,364/sft, up 26% YoY. The company’s 12msf of the launch pipeline creates growth visibility in the near

term.

MLIFE:

The management aims to launch over INR30-35b worth of inventories across 6-7 projects by Q4 /

Q1FY25. Key projects include Kandivali Phase 2, Malad redevelopment, Navi, Zen Phase II, Crown Phase 2,

Bhandup, Borivali redevelopment, and the plotted project in Jaipur.

SOBHA:

Approval delays prompted the management to reduce its pre-sales guidance to INR66b in FY25 (earlier

INR85b). The management targets 28% embedded PBT margins at a project level and 15-18% excluding

overheads and interest. Overall margins were down in 3Q due to losses incurred from contractual business. The

inventory of 8.9msf across ongoing projects (including completed) provides healthy visibility. Additionally,

SOBHA has 22.41msf under forthcoming projects at different stages of approval. SOBHA now intends to foray

into Mumbai and Noida but will remain calibrated in the approach.

SIGNATUR:

For 9MFY25, the company reported pre-sales of INR86.7b, achieving 87% of FY25 pre-sales guidance.

Additionally, the company has launched projects worth GDV of INR135b against the full-year guidance of

INR160b. Collections stood at INR32b in 9MFY25, achieving 52% of the collection guidance, and management is

confident to achieve the target for FY25. SIGNATUR intends to launch a project of IN350b GDV (21.6msf) over

FY26-27E and plans to keep replenishing the inventory.

KPDL:

Management has reiterated its business development guidance of INR80b and expects a 25% CAGR in

pre-sales over FY25-27. KPDL has pushed its launches of Laxmi Ratan Versova, Jal Mangal Deep Goregaon,

Vishwakarma Nagar, and Jal Nidhi projects with overall GDV of INR20b from the Mumbai portfolio to FY26 due

to a delay in approvals. KPDL expects to recognize INR18b in revenue in FY25 and will report blended EBITDA

margin of 12.5%.

SRIN:

Sunteck Realty reported pre-sales of INR6.35b in 3QFY25, up 40% YoY. Traction in uber-luxury projects

nearly tripled, with bookings of INR4.2b, or 66% of overall pre-sales. SRIN achieved 65% of the total pre-sales

guidance for FY25 (INR25b). Aided by the strong launch pipeline, management guided a pre-sales growth of 25-

30% for FY26. SRIN added the Nepean Sea project-2 with a total GDV of INR24b, which translated into a total

GDV of INR54b for the said project. Cumulative GDV as of 9MFY25 stood at INR402b, with the acquisition of a

recent project.

PHNX:

Total consumption stood at ~INR40b, up 21% YoY, driven by a healthy ramp-up in Palladium, Millennium,

and Mall of Asia at Ahmedabad, Pune, and Bengaluru, respectively. LfL growth was 10% in 3Q (excluding new

malls) and 7% overall in 9M, guided by jewelry, hypermarkets, and fashion. The company expanded Phoenix

Palladium Mumbai by 0.25msf and PMC Bangalore by 0.6msf. With new acquisitions in 2Q in Coimbatore &

Chandigarh Mohali totaling 22.1 acres, PHNX is set to double its portfolio by FY30.

Exhibit 115: Pre-sales for the coverage universe increased

15% YoY…

Pre-sales (INR b)

187%

353

92%

52%

58%

15%

87%

231

30%

-5%

Growth YoY %

Exhibit 116: …while volumes declined 17% YoY

Sales volumes (msf)

149%

Growth YoY %

19.0 19.7

42% 34%

47% 44%

2% 2%

17% 6%

16%

-13%-17%

61%

28%

29%

44%

15%

153 171 147 153 159 247 168 243 307 321 315

16.1 19.1 14.1 14.9 16.4 22.3 15.0 21.9 23.7 25.8 24.2

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 117: Collections improved 28% YoY

Collections (INRb)

64%

181

115

136

34%

0% 0%

113 123

161 136 156 163

181 191 208

123

18% 21%

Growth YoY %

Exhibit 118: Expect coverage stocks to deliver 28% YoY

growth in bookings

Bookings (INRb)

20%

61%

22% 148% -4%

39%

42% 4% 29% 32% 9%

22%

28%

FY24

FY25E

27%

33%

13%

33%

Exhibit 119: Estimate changes for our coverage universe

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY25E

138

104

Old

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY25E

-2

Old

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY25E

FY26E

FY25E

FY26E

-1

FY25E

-2

Old

FY26E

181

114

FY25E

138

104

Revenue

New

FY26E

181

114

EBITDA

New

FY26E

-1

PAT

New

FY26E

Change

FY25E

Change

FY25E

14%

-49%

Change

FY25E

-42%

-62%

FY26E

-3%

101%

-27%

-6%

FY26E

-7%

-26%

-5%

FY26E

-4%

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Pre-sales

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

Old

FY25E

181

270

178

260

101

FY26E

232

321

213

305

105

110

130

FY25E

238

270

178

100

201

101

New

FY26E

240

321

213

262

105

104

130

FY25E

31%

37%

-23%

-19%

-12%

Change

FY26E

-14%

-5%

-3%

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY25E

102

218

125

152

Old

FY26E

137

263

144

218

Collections

New

FY25E

FY26E

101

165

218

263

125

144

130

165

Change

FY25E

-1%

-15%

-13%

-5%

FY26E

21%

-24%

-9%

-5%

RETAIL: No festive cheers as demand remains subdued

Apparel and grocery retail: No festive cheer; value retailers continued to outperform premium retailers

Demand trends saw some improvement during the festive period, but overall 3Q demand trends were weaker than

expectations as demand tapered off after the festive period. The aggregate revenue for the six apparel stocks in our

coverage grew 14% YoY (vs. 17% YoY in 2Q) to INR136b (~1% miss), driven largely by: 1) continued robust growth for

Trent (+37% YoY), and 2) continued growth momentum for V-mart (+16% YoY). Including DMart, the aggregate revenue

was up ~16% YoY (similar to ~16% YoY growth in 2Q) to INR290b (in line). Value retailers continued to outperform

premium retailers, with value retailers (V-Mart, Trent, DMart) reporting high single-digit to double-digit SSSGs and

premium retailers (ABFRL, SHOP, Vedant, and Raymond) reporting weaker growth trends. Store productivity/LFL growth

witnessed some improvement in 3Q at the aggregate level, as retailers focused more on improving store productivity

and closing unprofitable stores. Aggregate gross profit for grocery and apparel retailers was up 13% YoY (vs. 17% YoY in

2Q) to INR87b (2% miss) as gross margin contracted 70bp YoY (40bp miss), led by Trent (-124bp), Raymond (-290bp) and

DMart (-15bp). The aggregate EBITDA was up 12% YoY (vs. 14% YoY in 2Q) to INR35b (~3% miss) as aggregate margin

contracted 40bp YoY (25bp miss). Weaker margins for DMart (-55bp), Trent (-34bp), Vedant (-365bp), and Raymond (-

620bp) offset better performances by ABFRL (+150bp) and VMart (+325bp).



Footwear: Demand subdued; RM inflation and non-BIS inventory liquidation offset by strong cost control

The aggregate revenue for the four footwear stocks under our coverage grew ~3% YoY (vs. 4% YoY in 2Q) to INR28b (4%

miss), largely led by 9-11% YoY growth for Metro and Campus. Relaxo continued to underperform with a 6% YoY

revenue decline. Aggregate gross profit was up by a modest ~2% YoY (~7% miss), as gross margin contracted ~35bp YoY

(~135bp miss) on account of raw material inflation and non-BIS inventory liquidation. Bata and Relaxo witnessed ~10bp

YoY gross margin expansion, which was offset by sharper GM contraction for Metro and Campus. The aggregate EBITDA

grew ~12% YoY (6% miss), largely led by better performances by Metro and Campus (on a low base). Aggregate EBITDA

margin expanded ~180bp YoY (30bp miss), led by strong cost control.



February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Retailers increase focus on boosting store productivity over store additions

The aggregate revenue for the 11 stocks in our retail coverage (apparel, grocery, and footwear) stood at INR318b,

growing 15% YoY (vs. 14% YoY in 2Q, 1% miss). The revenue growth during Q3 for our retail coverage was driven by

improvement in store productivity (+7% YoY vs 3.5% YoY in 2Q), as retailers rationalized unprofitable stores.

Net

store additions in 3QFY25 for the MOFSL retail sector stood at 171, bringing the total count to 12,486 stores (+4%

YoY), with additions mainly driven by Zudio (Trent), Raymond, and Metro.

Most retailers continued to focus on

improving store productivity and closing unprofitable stores. Retailers such as Metro and Vedant Fashions indicated

that they would go slow on store expansions, given the elevated store rentals and weaker demand environment.



Earnings downgrades continued in 3Q:

Given a weaker-than-expected festive quarter, we have cut our FY25-26E

EBITDA by 5-8% and PAT by 10-11% since the 2Q results. The earnings downgrades were broad-based across

footwear, apparel, and grocery retailers, with V-Mart and Campus the only outliers with marginal estimate

upgrades.



Top picks:

TRENT, DMart, and Metro Brands



Positive surprises:

ABFRL and VMart



Negative surprises:

Raymond Lifestyle, Vedant Fashions, Relaxo



Guidance highlights:



ABFRL:

Management’s focus was on consolidating unprofitable stores in FY25. However, it expects to roll out

300+ stores in the next 12 months across the ABLBL portfolio, with plans to accelerate value fashion play (to be

part of the demerged ABFRL) after the recent fund raise.



Shoppers Stop:

Management reiterated its guidance of ~5% LFL growth in 2HFY25 (delivered 4% LFL in 3Q),

driven by the wedding season. The company expects to sustain ~5% LFL over the medium term. It plans to open

32 stores in Q4 across all formats (6 Department/26 INTUNE). Further, the company aims to add gross 12-15

department stores (closure of 2- 3) and ~80-90 INTUNE stores in FY26.



Vedant Fashion:

Store expansion plans have been impacted by inflation in rentals. VFL aims to open the right

stores at the right prices as these are long-term commitments. However, over the longer term, management

expects stable store additions in line with its earlier guidance.



VMART:

Management expects to end the year with 50+ net store additions and some closures in 4Q. A one-time

correction on stores was implemented last year, and going forward, management expects only 1-2% closures

annually. It also highlighted that moving forward, it expects to implement price corrections on certain products,

with a greater focus on volume growth over margin expansion. Further, it indicated that margins are unlikely to

improve to pre-COVID levels due to higher competition from organized value retailers.



BATA:

Gross store additions during 3Q remained in line, while there was an aggressive focus on closing

unprofitable stores. Management indicated that store closures will continue for the next couple of quarters.

However, BATA intends to add 30-40 stores per quarter, including through franchises.



Campus Activewear:

Management reiterated its aspiration to improve EBITDA margins to 17-19% over the

medium term. Non-BIS inventory liquidation affected GM by 20-40bp in 3Q, which should further reduce to ~10-

20bp in 4Q. Non-BIS inventory still accounts for 10% of overall inventory. However, management expects to

clear majority of the non-BIS inventory by Mar’25.



Metro Brands:

Management expects to clock ~15-18% revenue CAGR over the long term, with gross margins in

the ~55% plus range and EBITDA in the ~30% plus range. Management indicated that its target of 100 store

additions for FY25 will likely be missed. However, it reiterated its guidance of opening ~225 stores over FY25-26,

with ~140-145 store additions expected in FY26 (ex-FILA).



Raymond Lifestyle:

Management expects margins to gradually recover to ~15% on a sustainable basis once the

headwinds and store expansions stabilize. The key margin driver will be an improvement in Branded Textiles

margin to 21-22%. Further, the company expects ~12-13% margins in the long run in the branded apparel

segment and double-digit margins in Garmenting.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 120: Aggregate revenue for retailers under our

coverage grew 15% YoY

Aggregate revenue (INR b)

26.0

24.7

28.7

25.8

16.2

14.4

14.7

Exhibit 121: Trent continued to outperform in 3QFY25

37%

17%

15%

11% 9%

YoY growth (%)

-6%

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 122: Aggregate gross profit was up 11% YoY (vs. 16%

YoY in 2Q) as margins contracted 80bp YoY

Aggregate Gross Profit (INR b)

33.2

32.3

31.2

32.3

GM (%)

Exhibit 123: Gross margin contraction was driven by weaker

GMs for Trent, Raymond, and DMart

171bp

92bp

25bp 13bp

-44bp

-125bp

-291bp

10bp 31bp

32.3

32.4

31.7

-14bp

-124bp

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 124: Aggregate EBITDA grew ~12% YoY (vs. 12% YoY

in 2Q) as EBITDA margin contracted ~30bp YoY

Aggregate EBITDA

13.3

12.1

11.3

EBITDAM (%)

13.0

11.5

11.1

Exhibit 125: Aggregate PAT rose ~14% YoY (~8% YoY excl.

Trent)

Aggregate PAT (INR b)

109.4%

YoY growth (%)

19.4%

-16.2% -11.7%

10.2%

7.0%

13.9%

Source: Company, MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 126: Store additions moderated on rationalization of unprofitable stores by apparel retailers

Total Stores

2QFY24

3QFY24

ABFRL

4,056

4,753

DMART

336

341

SHOP

281

290

TRENT

661

715

VMART

437

454

Raymond Lifestyle

1453

1512

Vedant Fashion

669

673

Metro

817

840

Campus

240

250

Bata

1,781

1,835

Relaxo

394

399

Total coverage stores 11,125

12,062

QoQ net store adds

937

Note: Excluding Reliance Retail stores

4QFY24

4,664

365

306

811

444

1518

676

839

268

1,862

405

12,158

1QFY25

4,607

371

320

823

448

1539

662

854

275

1,916

399

12,214

2QFY25

4,538

377

341

831

467

1592

650

873

280

1,955

403

12,315

101

3QFY25

YoY

4,492

-5.5

387

13.5

345

19.0

907

26.9

488

7.5

1653

9.3

666

-1.0

895

6.5

290

16.0

1,953

6.4

410

2.8

12,486

3.5

171

Source: Company, MOFSL

QoQ

-1.0

2.7

1.2

9.1

4.5

3.8

2.5

0.7

-0.1

1.7

1.4

Retail - Jewelry: Robust revenue growth; moderation in margins



Jewelry companies continued to deliver robust sales growth, driven by

robust festive demand, wedding

purchases and higher gold prices.

Titan (Jewelry standalone), Kalyan, Senco and P N Gadgil delivered revenue

growth of 27%, 40%, 27% and 24%, respectively. SSSG of Titan, Kalyan and Senco was 22%, 24%, and 16%,

respectively. There was an improvement in the studded mix across the companies, except for Senco. The

reduction in customs duty resulted in an inventory loss of INR2.5b for Titan, INR548m for Kalyan, and ~INR276m

for Senco, which hurt the reported profitability of companies. Demand was robust in Jan’25, though there was

softness in the last 7-10 days due to a sharp rise in gold prices. Our top picks are Titan, and PN Gadgil.

Outperformer (3Q) – PN Gadgil Jewellers, Kalyan Jewellers

Underperformer (3Q): Senco Gold

Guidance highlights:



TTAN:

The company expects EBIT margin of 11% to 11.5% for FY25. Gold lease rates are rising due to US tariff-

related changes, leading banks to increase lease costs. The company is monitoring this closely. GC margin

dilution in studded jewelry was due to a shift in the gold-to-diamond ratio within diamond jewelry amid rising

gold prices and stable diamond prices. TTAN plans to offset this through better material sourcing and cost

efficiencies



Kalyan Jewelers

– In FY26, Kalyan plans to launch 170 showrooms across Kalyan and Candere formats - 75 Kalyan

showrooms (all FOCO) in non-south India, 15 Kalyan showrooms (all FOCO) across south India and international

markets and 80 Candere showrooms in India.



Senco:

The company maintains its revenue growth guidance of 18-20% and remains on track to open 18-20 new

stores in FY25, having already launched 12 stores YTD. An additional 8-10 stores are planned in 4Q, including 5-7

franchised outlets.



P N Gadgil:

In FY26, the company plans to add 25 stores, including a mix of COCO, FOCO, and Lifestyle by PNG

formats. The expansion plan includes 8 COCO stores, 7 FOCO stores, and 10 ‘LiteStyle by PNG’ stores (split

equally between COCO and FOCO), along with two stores in the US.

TECHNOLOGY: Anticipating a steady demand recovery in selected pockets



Aggregate performance:

The IT Services companies under our coverage presented a mixed picture in a

seasonally weak quarter, with a median revenue growth of 1.8% QoQ CC in 3QFY25 (vs. 2.0%/1.2%/0.7% in

2QFY25/1QFY25/4QFY24). Guidance upgrades by major companies were disappointing, i.e., INFO guidance

implies a QoQ decline of ~1.0% in 4Q and HCLT guidance implies ~0.6% 4Q CC QoQ growth for ITB&S. We believe

that after 3Q results, revenue expectations for FY26/FY27 have been pared back across the Street. However, the

commentary in some pockets turned incrementally positive. We believe the tech spending recovery, which was

previously driven primarily by BFSI over the past six months, is now expanding into other verticals such as Hi-

Tech and Retail. This quarter, deal win trends indicate a gradual rebound in shorter-term deals, signaling a

return of discretionary spending by clients and setting the stage for an improved revenue conversion. The

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



softness in some verticals and geographies continued in 3QFY25, with Communications and Manufacturing

reporting muted growth. We believe the cycle is gradually turning (might not be a J-curve recovery) as clients are

beginning to reinvest their savings from cost-reduction programs to reduce technological debt.

Tier-2 pack outpaced tier-1:

Tier-1 companies saw a median revenue growth of 1.5% QoQ CC, while tier-2

companies reported a growth of 2.8% QoQ CC, driven by strong performance by Coforge (8.4% CC QoQ growth)

and Persistent (4.6% QoQ CC). WPRO (0.1% QoQ CC), MPHL (0.1% QoQ CC) and ZENT (0.7% QoQ CC) reported

muted growth. HCLT (+3.8% QoQ CC in seasonally strong quarter) and Coforge (+8.4% QoQ CC vs. 4.9% est.)

outperformed their peers with strong executions in 3Q. On the margin front, tier-1 and tier-2 companies both

reported ~20bp QoQ expansion. The margin expansion for Tier-1 was majorly attributed to productivity

efficiencies, seasonality in P&P margins (HCLT), deferred wage hikes (INFO), and improved utilization and

offshoring. For Tier-2, the margin expansion came from stronger margin performance in 2H for LTTS, better-

than-expected Cigniti’ s margins (COFORGE), and growth leverage.

Steady TCV performance:

majority of Tier-1 companies reported stable TCV performance, except for LTIM/TCS

(up 29.2%/18.6% QoQ). Tier-2 companies also reported robust growth in TCV, with MPHL posting a growth of

69.6% QoQ and five large deals. TCS reported a deal TCV of USD10.2b, up 18.6% QoQ and 25.9% YoY. LTIM’s

order inflows stood at USD1.68b, up ~30% sequentially. TECHM reported robust net new TCV of USD745m, up

23% QoQ/95% YoY. Within Tier-2, MPHL’s TTM TCV was USD351m, up 70% QoQ and 46% YoY. COFORGE’s order

intake was USD501m – the second consecutive quarter of USD500m+ order intake. It signed four large deals

during the quarter. The 12-month executable order book stood at USD1.3b, up 40% YoY. The 3Q book-to-bill was

decent at ~1.0x for Tier-1 firms and ~1.3x for Tier-2 players.

Headcount movement:

Hiring activity was muted in 3Q; the net headcount declined by ~250 for Tier-1, while

Tier-2 saw a net addition of ~600. The attrition rate remained range-bound at lower levels for a majority of

companies, while utilization also remained stable QoQ, except for PSYS and LTIM.

For

PSYS, utilization stood at

87% (up 260bp QoQ) and we believe this margin lever is now maxed out.

Top picks:

We prefer LTIM and HCLT among large-caps and COFORGE and PSYS in the mid-cap space. Our

positive outlook on LTIMindtree is based on its best-in-class offerings in data and ERP modernization, with a

recovery in US banks' discretionary spending expected to further support its growth. We believe HCLT’s

diversified portfolio is well-positioned. Often perceived as defensive, its strengths in data, product engineering,

and modernization should enable it to benefit from the recovering demand environment. We believe Coforge’s

healthy executable order book and a rebound in BFS client spending bode well for its organic business. Cigniti

could prove to be an effective long-term asset. Persistent Systems, with its strong product engineering

background, remains the fastest-growing IT services company in our coverage and is well-positioned to benefit

from the long-term GenAI investments.

Significant beat:

INFO (revenue growth and margin), LTIM (margin), TECHM (revenue growth and margin),

Coforge (revenue growth), Persistent (revenue growth and margin)

Significant miss:

TCS (revenue growth), LTTS (revenue growth)

Significant surprise:

Cyient (downgraded revenue and margin guidance)

Rating changes and major EPS upgrades/downgrades:

TECHM’s FY26/FY27 EPS estimates were upgraded by

1.7%/6.3%. CYL’s DET business FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates were cut by 9%/12%/16%. For COFORGE/ZENT,

their FY25 EPS estimates were upgraded by 5.4% each. We downgraded CYL to Sell while maintaining unchanged

ratings for other stocks in our coverage universe.

Guidance highlights



TCS:

TCS is seeing improvement in discretionary spending. Client conversations are showing early signs of revival

in discretionary spending. The company notices that deal cycles have shortened by a few weeks in 3Q compared

to the last quarter, indicating improved decision-making cycles by clients. The company expects to compensate

for BSNL revenue in multiple geographies in CY25. Growth will be driven by core markets and regional markets

outside India. The manufacturing sector is expected to bottom out in 4Q. Life sciences and healthcare sectors,

which are waiting for policy clarifications, should start performing better as near-term headwinds subside. The

margin aspiration of 26-28% in the near term remains intact. In 4Q, margin expansion is expected to exceed 3Q

levels.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



INFO:

For Infosys, clients continue to prioritize cost take-out over discretionary spending. The company has

observed strong momentum in BFSI, with Europe joining the growth trajectory alongside the US. It is also seeing

good traction in the US retail sector. The revenue growth guidance has been upgraded to 4.5-5.0% from the

earlier range of 3.75-4.5%. Furloughs are expected in 4Q. Factors such as third-party pass-through and fewer

working days in 4Q have been considered in the guidance. Wage hikes will be implemented in two phases,

starting in Jan’25 and followed by the second phase in Apr’25. Wage growth in India is expected to be 6-8%,

while overseas growth will be in the low single digits.

WPRO:

Wipro observed that many clients are currently in the budgeting phase, with ongoing discussions to

finalize agreements. Client hunting and account mining remain strategic priorities for WPRO. Discretionary

spending in the Americas is evident in BFSI, though it is not widespread at this point. 4Q guidance was in the

range of -1% to 1% in CC. Growth in the last two quarters has been above the midpoint of guidance. For 4QFY25,

margins are expected to remain in a narrow band (+/- 17.5%), with no significant headwinds anticipated.

HCLT:

HCLT anticipates increased technology spending in CY25, driven by transformation and efficiency-related

initiatives. Discretionary spending is expected to improve overall. For FY25, the revenue growth guidance has

been upgraded to 4.5%- 5.0% YoY cc (including ~50bp contribution from the HPE CTG acquisition, with organic

growth at 4.0%-4.5%) from the earlier range of 3.5%-5.0%. EBIT margin guidance is unchanged at 18% to 19%.

TECHM:

TECHM is focused on enhancing its capabilities and optimizing its revenue mix to achieve better pricing

outcomes. The outlook for discretionary spending in manufacturing is conservative, reflecting softness in the

sector. Wage hikes planned for 4QFY25 could impact margins by 100-150bp. Levers for margin improvement are

better pricing, improved performance in fixed price contracts, reduced seasonality in the Comviva business, and

lean automation in fixed-price contracts to enhance cost efficiency.

LTIM:

Growth momentum continued in 3Q, building on trends from the last few quarters, and is expected to

continue in 4Q. The company recorded YoY growth across all verticals, with notable traction in BFSI. FY26 is

projected to be better than FY25. Clients are in the process of finalizing their budgets for CY25. There are specific

short-cycle deals, such as regulatory deals in BFS, alongside some discretionary spending in this vertical. Margins

are expected to improve in FY26, assuming double-digit revenue growth, which remains the biggest lever for

margin expansion. The absorption of wage hikes may take 2-3 more quarters in the current environment.

Exhibit 128:

Tier-2 continued to post mid-teen growth for the

second consecutive quarter

Tier II Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)

17.8%

14.3%

Exhibit 127: For Tier-1 companies growth slowed down in

seasonally weak quarter

Tier I Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)

10.9%

8.9%

6.8%

4.4%

2.5%

0.8% 0.4%

12.6%

10.1%

12.3%

7.8% 6.7% 6.7% 7.6%

6.1%

4.3%

1.9%

3.3%

Exhibit 129: Tier-1 and Tier-2 continue to show marginal improvements in EBIT margins

Tier I EBIT Margin (%)

20.4

14.6

20.1

15.4

19.9

14.8

14.7

20.1

14.9

Tier II EBIT Margin (%)

20.1

15.0

19.9

14.2

20.1

13.8

20.3

14.0

19.2

Source: Company, MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 130:

Median utilization (%) declined 90bp in 3Q due to

furloughs impact

IT Sector - Median Utilization (incl. trainees %)

82.9%

83.9%

84.6%

83.5%

Exhibit 131: Median attrition (%) inched up by 30bp in 3Q

IT Sector - Mediam Attrition (%)

21.7%

81.5%

81.8%

81.9% 81.6%

79.7%

19.8%

17.3%

14.6%

12.9% 12.5% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2%

Figures excl. LTTS. from 1QFY23; MPHL (Offshore); Source:

Company, MOFSL

Figures exclude MPHL; Source: Company, MOFSL

TELECOM: Growth sustained led by residual flow-through of tariff hikes; Bharti continued to outperform

Growth momentum sustained in 3Q, driven by the residual flow-through of tariff hikes and normalization of

subscriber trends. The combined wireless revenue for three private telcos grew 4% QoQ (15% YoY, inline). Blended

wireless ARPU for the three private telcos was up 5% QoQ (+15% YoY), while subscriber trends showed improvement

with ~1m net adds (vs. 21m decline in 2Q). EBITDA for private telcos was up ~6% QoQ (+21% YoY, in line), driven by

healthy ~80% incremental margins. Among private telcos, Bharti was again the biggest gainer in 3QFY25, with a

~80bp QoQ gain (~225bp YoY) in Revenue Market Share (RMS) and ~45bp QoQ (+105bp YoY) Subscriber Market

Share (SMS) gains. RJio lost a further ~50bp QoQ (-70bp YoY) RMS, while its SMS was up by a modest ~10bp QoQ (up

50bp YoY) in 3Q. Vi continued to lose market share, with RMS down ~30bp QoQ (-160bp YoY) and SMS down ~50bp

QoQ (-155bp YoY). We believe the bulk of the tariff hike benefits are now reflected, with additional ARPU growth

likely to be driven by subscriber mix improvements. Vi commenced its network expansion in 3Q and expects to

invest ~INR500-550b over the medium term. With the completion of accelerated 5G rollouts, we expect wireless

capex to moderate further for Bharti and RJio, with the focus now shifting to driving greater adoption of home

broadband through accelerated fiber rollouts and the scale-up of FWA offerings.

Residual tariff hike flow-through continues to drive growth; Bharti once again the biggest gainer

Driven by the residual flow-through of tariff hikes, the blended wireless ARPU of private telcos was up ~5% (after a

~8% QoQ uptick in 2Q). Bharti led once again with ~5% QoQ growth, followed by ~4-4.5% QoQ increase for RJio and

Vi. The subscriber migration to BSNL, following tariff hikes, appears to be reversing now. The combined reported

subscriber base for private telcos grew by a modest ~1m (vs. ~21m net decline in 2Q), with Bharti reporting robust

~5m net adds, followed by ~1.3m for RJio. Vi continued to lose subscribers in 3Q. However, management indicated

signs of improvement in Dec’24 and Jan’25, with VLR net adds in 11 circles. Following the ~8% QoQ increase in 2Q,

the combined wireless revenue of private telcos rose ~4% QoQ, with Bharti once again leading with ~6% growth,

followed by 3% for RJio and 2% for Vi. Bharti gained an additional ~80bp QoQ in revenue market share, with

incremental RMS of 62% in 3Q (vs. ~53% incremental RMS in 2Q and overall RMS of ~41.4%) among private telcos.

Robust incremental margin drives 6% sequential growth in combined EBITDA for three private telcos

Driven by tariff hike flow-through, the incremental margin for private telcos improved to ~80% (from 70% QoQ). As a

result, combined EBITDA grew ~6% QoQ (~21% YoY), with Bharti once again leading with ~9% growth, followed by

4% growth for Vi and 3% for RJio. Driven by astonishing 90% incremental margins, Bharti’s wireless EBITDA margin

expanded by further ~180bp QoQ. Vi followed with ~75bp QoQ EBITDA margin expansion driven by lower costs,

while EBITDA margin declined QoQ by ~25bp for RJio (for the first time since 1QFY23). We note that Bharti’s

reported India wireless EBITDA is now largely similar to RJio’s standalone EBITDA, which also includes the

contribution from the home broadband business.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Vi commences its investment phase; leverage ratio dipped sharply for Bharti



Vi’s capex increased sharply to INR32b (vs. INR14b QoQ) as it rolled out ~4k MBB towers (its highest since the

merger). Further, management has guided for a capex of INR100b in FY25(vs. INR53b in 9M) and ~INR500-550b

over the medium term.



Bharti’s India capex (excl. Indus) declined ~12% YoY, largely on the completion of accelerated 5G rollouts.

Management reiterated its guidance of FY25 capex (INR199b in 9M) to be lower than FY24 (INR330b), with a

further unwind anticipated in FY26.



Driven by robust FCF generation, Bharti’s consolidated net debt (excl. leases) declined by INR74b QoQ (INR110b

excluding the Indus Towers’ consolidation impact) to INR1.34t, with India net debt (excl leases) to EBITDAaL

improving to 1.3x (vs. 2.1x YoY).



On the other hand, Vi’s net debt (excl. leases) increased by INR55b QoQ to INR2.17t. However, its banking debt

declined further to a modest ~INR23b (vs. INR77b YoY).

FCF generation picked-up sharply for Indus Towers:

3Q reported financials were ahead of our estimate, driven by

the higher-than-expected prior-period bad debt provision reversal (INR30b vs. our estimate of INR12.5b).

Operationally, core performance was in line, with Indus’ recurring EBITDA rising 4% QoQ as tower/tenancy additions

picked up on account of higher share in Bharti’s rollouts and the commencement of Vi’s rollouts. Indus’ 9M FCF

stood at INR60b (of which INR27.5b was used for buyback in 1H). Given the large collection of Vi’s past dues in

Jan’25, we expect Indus’ FCF to sustain at elevated levels in 4Q, which should enable the company to declare an

INR20+/share dividend for FY25.

TCOM’s subdued performance continued:

TCOM’s data revenue grew 1% QoQ (+6% YoY), with core connectivity

revenue declining ~1% QoQ (+3% YoY), while the digital portfolio revenue grew ~4% QoQ (+10% YoY). Adjusted

consolidated EBITDA margin expanded ~150bp QoQ (-65bp YoY) to 20%, driven by seasonality benefits in Kaleyra

and the deconsolidation of TCPSL and NetFoundry. Reported financials were also boosted by INR0.3b in prior-period

revenue recognition and rupee depreciation; adjusting the same, growth in the core business remained subdued.



Top picks:

BHARTI, RIL



Positive surprises:

Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa



Negative surprises:

Reliance Jio, Tata Communication

Guidance highlights:



RJio:

After ~13m wireless subscriber declines in 2Q, subscriber net adds picked up towards the exit month

(Dec’24). According to the management, the full impact of the tariff hike is still to play out for RJio. 70%+ of

incremental JioAirFiber additions are coming from beyond the top 1,000 cities/towns, and the overall pace of

home connects for RJio continues to accelerate, with a total installed base of ~17m (~2m adds in 3QFY25).



Bharti:

The management reiterated its guidance for the FY25 India capex (INR199b in 9M) to be lower than FY24

(INR330b). India’s capex is likely to further unwind in FY26, with capex as a percentage of revenue trending

lower and soon aligning with global telcos. Bharti added 674k users in Home Broadband through a combination

of FTTH/FWA. Further, management indicated that the broadband business is seeing increased momentum

MoM, with Jan’25 ending better than Dec’24. Management believes that the Indian fixed broadband market size

can potentially double from ~45m to 80-90m homes over the medium term.



Vi:

Management indicated that the benefits of tariff hikes are largely reflected in 3Q (~12% customer ARPU

growth since 1Q). It expects another round of tariff hike soon (possibly in the next 3-6 months). Further, there

are some green shoots from network rollouts, with VLR net adds in 11 circles in Dec’24 and Jan’25.



TCOM:

Management indicated that funnel additions remained robust, especially in the international business,

with the large deals funnel growing 50% YoY. However, the pace of order-booking was slower in 3Q (as

compared to 1HFY25) as the large deal conversion cycle remains elongated.



Indus:

Tower and tenancy additions improved due to a pickup in rollouts by Bharti and Vi. The order book

remains healthy for the next 3-4 quarters and management expects to maintain a dominant share in Vi’s

network rollouts.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 132: Subscriber trends improved for the industry in

Bharti (India)

RJio

Exhibit 133: Bharti continued to outperform peers on ARPU

growth

Bharti (India)

RJio

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY23

FY24

FY25

Exhibit 134: Wireless KPI comparison

EOP Wireless SUBS (m)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Avg. Wireless Subs (m)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

ARPU (INR/month)

Bharti (India)

RJio

MOU/Sub (min)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Wireless traffic (B min)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Data usage/Sub (Gb)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Data traffic (B Gb)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

321

255

441

321

262

433

146

104

138

FY22

323

253

430

322

254

435

153

109

144

323

247

421

323

250

425

163

115

152

326

244

410

324

246

416

178

124

168

327

240

420

327

242

415

183

128

176

FY23

328

234

428

328

237

424

190

131

177

332

229

433

330

232

430

193

135

178

335

226

439

334

227

436

193

135

179

339

221

449

337

224

444

200

139

181

FY24

342

220

460

340

221

454

203

142

182

346

215

471

344

218

465

208

145

182

352

213

482

349

214

476

209

146

182

FY25

355

210

490

353

211

486

211

146

182

352

205

479

353

208

484

233

156

195

357

200

482

354

202

480

YoY QoQ

(%) (%)

3.2 1.4

-7.2 -2.5

2.4 0.7

3.0 0.3

-6.9 -2.5

3.3 -0.8

245 18.0 5.3

163 12.4 4.5

203 11.9 4.2

2.2

1.1

3.6

1,044 1,053 1,061 1,083 1,104 1,082 1,094 1,122 1,138 1,123 1,127 1,158 1,128 1,135 1,160 3.0

642 629 620 614 620 601 611 623 626 613 615 626 607 586 593 -3.5

815 835 901 962 1001 968 984 1004 1002 979 981 1008 974 977 1013 3.2

1,002 1,020 1,030 1,051 1,079 1,063 1,082 1,124 1,149 1,148 1,161 1,210 1,195 1,200 1,233 6.2 2.8

504 480 465 452 450 428 424 425 420 406 401 402 385 365 360 -10.2 -1.4

1060 1090 1150 1200 1246 1230 1270 1313 1335 1334 1370 1440 1420 1420 1460 6.6 2.8

18.5 18.6 18.3

13.0 13.2 12.5

15.6 17.6 18.4

10.3 10.7 10.8

5.5 5.5 5.2

20.3 23.0 23.5

18.8

12.6

19.7

11.3

5.2

24.6

19.5

13.0

20.8

12.0

5.4

25.9

20.3

13.7

22.2

12.9

5.7

28.2

20.3 20.3

13.9 13.9

22.4 23.1

13.2 13.6

5.8 5.8

29.0 30.3

21.6

14.4

24.9

15.3

6.0

33.2

22.2 22.5

14.6 14.2

26.6 27.3

16.1 16.8

6.1 6.0

36.3 38.1

23.1

14.3

28.6

17.8

6.0

40.9

24.3

14.5

30.3

19.2

6.1

44.1

24.5

14.4

31.0

25.1 11.6 2.5

14.2 -0.4 -1.2

32.3 18.2 4.2

19.8 20.7 23.2 4.5

6.0

5.9 -2.4 -2.2

45.0 46.5 22.0 3.3

Source: MOFSL, Company

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 135: Financials

Revenue (INR b)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EBITDA (INR b)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EBITDA Margin (%)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

Reported PAT (INR b)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EPS (INR)

Bharti

Idea

143

269

180

130

49.2

48.3

40.5

47.9

FY22

152

283

187

138

49.2

48.8

41.1

48.0

161

299

193

147

49.4

49.2

39.3

49.2

175

315

102

209

160

105

50.6

50.9

45.4

50.3

181

328

104

219

165

110

51.1

50.4

41.6

50.1

FY23

189

345

106

225

176

115

52.3

51.0

38.6

51.0

194

358

106

230

104

185

120

53.8

51.5

39.4

52.2

195

360

105

234

105

187

122

53.8

51.9

40.0

52.2

204

374

107

240

112

196

126

54.8

52.3

39.0

52.3

FY24

210

370

107

248

115

195

130

54.9

52.7

40.0

52.3

216

379

107

254

119

198

133

55.1

52.3

40.8

52.3

221

376

106

260

122

194

136

55.1

51.5

40.9

52.4

FY25

225

385

105

265

125

197

139

55.6

51.2

40.0

52.6

248

415

109

283

142

218

150

57.1

52.7

41.6

53.1

263

451

111

293

155

246

155

58.8

54.5

42.4

52.8

YoY

(%)

21.4

19.1

4.2

15.5

29.6

24.1

8.3

16.6

374bps

222bps

163bps

48bps

QoQ

(%)

5.8

8.8

1.7

3.4

9.1

12.6

3.6

2.9

179bps

183bps

77bps

-25bps

311.4

-7.9

3.9

311.3

-7.8

2.8 11.3 8.3 20.1 16.1 21.5 15.9 30.1 16.1 13.4 24.4 20.7 41.6 35.9 147.8 505.2

(75.0) (71.5) (72.2) (65.5) (73.0) (76.0) (79.9) (64.0) (78.4) (87.4) (77.4) (76.7) (64.3) (71.8) (66.1) -14.6

35.0 35.3 36.2 41.7 43.4 45.2 46.4 47.2 48.6 50.6 52.1 53.4 54.5 62.3 64.8 24.4

0.5 2.1 1.5 3.6 2.9 3.8 2.8 5.3

2.8 2.4 4.3 3.6 7.2 6.2 25.5 497.7

(2.5) (2.5) (2.5) (2.0) (2.3) (2.4) (2.5) (1.3) (1.6) (1.8) (1.4) (1.6) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) -34.0

Source: MOFSL, Company

UTILITIES: 3QFY25 – a mixed bag; TPWR and IEX beat our PAT estimates



Overall performance:

For our coverage universe, revenue was 8% below our estimates (mainly due to a 20%/

28% miss for JSWE/TPWR), EBITDA was 6% below (mainly due to a 28%/14% miss for JSWE/TPWR), while adj.

PAT (APAT) was only 3% below our estimates (due to an 18%/16% beat for TPWR/IEX).

Overall, a mixed 3Q with TPWR and IEX surpassing our PAT estimates:

IEX’s

standalone revenue and PAT both

surpassed our estimate, primarily due to a 15.9% YoY rise in electricity volumes and other income. IEX saw

strong volume growth in Q3, with overall volumes up 17% year-over-year, including a 15.9% rise in electricity

and a 31% surge in renewables.

NTPC’s

standalone revenue and EBITDA came in line with our estimate. PAT was

marginally below due to higher-than-expected tax rates, previous year adjustments, and changes in regulatory

account balances. Gross generation was up 2% YoY in 3QFY25, while plant availability across both coal and gas

plants improved on a YoY basis.

TPWR’s

EBITDA came in 4% below our estimate but was up 38% on a YoY basis

driven by robust growth in the standalone business amid strong PLFs and regulatory upside in Mundra and rising

contribution from the renewables business amid progressive commissioning of renewable generation capacity

and earnings contribution from the cell and module business. Profitability at the PAT level was driven by other

income, which came in higher than our estimates.

JSWE

substantially missed our EBITDA estimates due to lower

short-term merchant spreads and higher opex, while APAT was adversely impacted by higher finance costs and

lower other income. The commissioning of the 377MW wind capacity during the lean season led to higher

capitalization, finance costs, and depreciation.

PWGR’s

reported SA PAT was in line, aided by higher other

income (partly attributable to the gain on the monetization of the remaining stake in some InvIT assets), while

on a consolidated basis, its reported PAT was flat YoY.

Ratings and earnings revisions:

TPWR –

While the 3QFY25 APAT was above our expectations, overall, we

trimmed our FY26-27 EPS by 7%/7%, mainly due to a slower-than-expected pace of commissioning in the RE

generation business.

PWGR –

Following the 3QFY25 results, we moderate our DPS estimates to INR9.0/INR10.0/

INR13.5 for FY25/FY26/FY27.

JSWE –

Considering the weak financial performance, we cut our FY25 APAT by ~5%.

However, we believe the core story remains intact, and the company is on track to nearly double its capacity to

~14GW by Jun’25 (assuming the KSK Mahanadi and O2 Power acquisitions are consummated).

Top picks:

JSWE and PWGR

remain our preferred picks.

Surprises:

TPWR and IEX.

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25



Misses:

JSWE,

PWGR and NTPC.

Guidance highlights:



JSWE:

Management maintained its guidance of achieving 10GW in operational capacity by FY25 end and

highlighted that the company has 7.8GW of projects under construction with PPAs, while an additional 3.9GW

capacity is awaiting PPA agreements. Management also highlighted that the company has incurred a capex of

INR62b during 9MFY25 while the FY25 capex target was revised to INR100b from the earlier estimate of INR150b

due to the inorganic growth route. JSWE remains hopeful of consummating both the KSK Mahanadi and O2

Power acquisitions by 2QFY26. The company is on track to achieve 14GW of operational capacity by Jun’25, well

ahead of its 2030 target of becoming a 20GW generation company. JSWE has appealed CERC’s decision to reject

the tariff adoption for its BESS project and remains optimistic.



PWGR:

Management raised its FY25 capex guidance to INR230b (from INR200b), capex and capitalization for

FY26 were guided at INR280-300b, while the same for FY27 was guided at INR350b. Management guided that

the dividend payout may see some moderation given mounting capex. It was highlighted that currently

~INR520b worth of projects are under bidding. Assuming a project win rate of ~50%, about INR250-270b worth

of projects are likely to be won by PWGR, in addition to the current work in hand (at INR1.43t). This would take

the total value of projects to INR1.7t.



NTPC:

Management guided the conventional capacity (thermal + hydro) commissioning targets at

3GW/2.2GW/1.9GW in FY25/FY26/FY27 and is actively considering the awarding of 7.2GW of thermal capacity

by FY27 (all of this would be under JVs). The expansion would primarily be brownfield in nature, with no recent

developments in greenfield thermal projects. NGEL aims to achieve an RE capacity target of 60GW by FY32 with

plans to commission 3,088 MW of RE capacity in FY25, 5GW in FY26, and 8GW in FY27. Resources for FY25 and

FY26 RE capacity commissioning, including land, are in place. NTPC also established Anushakti Vidyut Megham

Limited, a JV with NPCIL, to develop nuclear projects and transferred the 2,800 MW Mahi Banswara Atomic

Power Project to the JV.



TPWR:

Management has highlighted that INR120b was spent in 9MFY25, with an additional INR100b planned for

4QFY25, bringing the total to ~INR220b for FY25. The company has a target of commissioning 600 MW in

4QFY25 with plans to add 2-2.5GW annually in FY26 and FY27, comprising solar and wind capacity, and is

targeting a 70% clean energy mix by FY30 (currently at 43%). The 2GW Solar Cell Line, commissioned in Nov’24,

is operating at 90% capacity. An additional 2GW Cell Line, commissioned in Jan’25, is undergoing stabilization

and is expected to be fully operational by Feb’25. The company is actively exploring new bidding opportunities

for DISCOM privatization across India, including UP DISCOMs, under a potential public-private partnership

model. TPWR is also evaluating opportunities in the nuclear space.



IEX:

Management highlighted that gas prices are projected to decline to USD8-9/MMBTU by 2026-27, enhancing

affordability and consumption, and emerging models, such as battery storage arbitrage and Virtual Power

Purchase Agreements (VPPAs), are expected to drive market evolution. Pending approvals for the 11-month

contract and the Green RTM market are expected to enhance trading opportunities. Plans are underway to

establish India’s first coal exchange by 2025 under a regulatory framework.

Exhibit 136: Key snapshot

Particulars

Total generation growth (%)

Conv. Generation growth (%)

RE generation growth (%)

All India Peak Demand (GW)

Capacity addition (GW)

Net Coal

Solar

Wind

Total capacity addition

FY18

5.4

4.1

24.9

161

6.0

9.4

1.8

17.2

FY19

5.2

3.6

24.4

176

3.6

6.5

1.6

12.1

FY20

0.7

0.0

7.8

183

4.1

6.4

2.1

14.0

FY21

-0.6

-1.6

7.7

189

4.2

5.5

1.6

12.0

FY22

8.1

7.1

16.2

201

1.4

13.9

1.1

17.3

FY23

9.0

7.7

19.1

212

1.2

12.8

2.3

16.6

FY24

7.2

6.7

10.9

240

5.7

15.0

3.3

25.9

1QFY25

10.9

11.5

7.0

250

2QFY25

1.3

0.3

7.3

230

3QFY25

3.4

2.3

11.4

224

0.0

0.1

1.4

3.7

5.3

7.1

0.8

0.7

0.8

4.2

6.5

9.4

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Exhibit 137: India’s power generation

India's Power generation (BU)

9.4 5.3

-9.2

10.2

3.1 6.7 2.2 -1.6

12.2

-10.4

-1.2

-19.6

3.9

11.1

-7.1

Addition in Power generation (BU)

12.5

5.6

12.5

1.3

-5.1 -2.6

-5.8

-4.2

-19.3

9.1

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 138: India’s power generation capacity (GW)

India's Power generation capacity (GW)

Source: NPP, MOFSL

Exhibit 139: India’s peak demand

Peak Demand (GW)

Source: CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 140: India’s power demand growth

Total Generation including RE (BU)

6% 6% 5% 5%

Exhibit 141: Peak demand growth

Peak Demand (GW)

153

148

160

164

177

184

190

203

216

243

119

122

130

136

135

-1%

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

Source: CEA, MOFSL

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

ANNEXURE:

MOFSL UNIVERSE (ACTUAL V/S EXPECTATIONS)

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Dec-24 YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24

3,195.5 7.2

5.7

-1.3

405.9 -0.9 4.9

-4.8

233.8

31.6

9.8

0.9

-0.2

4.2

-4.4 -5.6

-8.3

2.3

69.3

5.0

7.6

2.3

9.5

-21.6 7.9

-4.3

3.4

94.8

2.2

8.1

4.7

12.1

8.8 19.1

14.8

7.6

128.1

5.7

-2.4

-1.7

25.8

6.2 -2.7

-0.1

21.1

25.7

11.0

4.3

2.0

6.4

8.9

3.3

1.8

4.4

21.0

-7.4

-6.7

-13.1

6.1

-5.5 -2.5

-9.0

3.5

44.7

6.2

1.6

-1.7

5.8

0.7

3.9

-3.9

4.9

33.0

11.4 -0.1

-1.4

3.4

-18.3 -5.9

-3.0

1.0

15.8

39.5 29.8

-7.2

2.0

-9.6 3.2

1.8

0.2

49.7

19.0 16.7

-1.3

12.0

10.2 10.4

-8.2

11.7

28.6

11.6 -1.8

-2.5

3.7

24.6 -2.5

-4.3

1.8

29.4

8.5

29.6

-5.7

3.4

3.5 44.0

-10.3

2.9

38.5

0.2

-9.8

-10.5

4.5

2.0 -7.2

-9.3

2.4

3.5

3.6

-1.9

-1.3

1.0

6.6 -3.7

-3.2

0.6

102.1

5.0

-2.4

0.8

14.8

8.4 -2.6

3.8

12.0

166.5 -1.3

-3.5

0.3

18.8 -13.7 -15.0

-8.1

11.6

305.4 20.3 10.8

-2.2

44.7

35.6 13.1

0.5

29.6

384.9 15.6

3.5

0.0

44.7

14.4 1.2

2.0

35.3

23.0

8.8

-1.1

-4.9

2.4

-9.3 -4.8

-12.1

1.4

68.8

13.8

1.8

0.7

8.0

-22.9 -17.6

-15.9

3.1

276.7

7.9

-0.5

-4.3

26.9

16.0 9.7

1.5

8.8

8.7

11.8 -6.2

0.6

2.3

3.1 -8.1

0.2

1.6

1,135.8 2.7

12.0

-1.2

130.3 -15.0 11.0

-11.6

54.7

19.1

0.6

-7.5

-7.2

2.4

1.5 -1.2

0.1

1.6

91.0

10.3 -1.4

-0.1

10.8

17.0 0.2

2.7

6.2

946.4 16.8

4.6

-2.2

106.3 16.6 0.4

-3.3

64.9

57.6

39.1 25.6

15.9

16.5

57.5 19.1

33.2

13.2

30.9

21.8 23.8

14.8

6.0

11.5 24.7

14.5

5.1

16.2

27.2

4.3

-5.0

1.7

145.5 52.1

6.4

0.9

48.3

16.4 16.7

-2.3

4.0

16.8 15.3

-4.3

1.6

53.5

6.8

4.6

-7.6

3.7

21.6 16.9

-3.5

1.3

11.6

2.5

-2.6

-11.4

1.2

-12.0 -29.1

-24.5

0.7

646.7 17.3

5.1

-2.5

62.5

8.6 -1.7

-9.7

33.6

50.2

4.0 -22.3

-8.6

7.2

21.4 -22.8

0.8

6.1

25.1

7.9

-4.0

-11.2

1.9

0.8 -32.0

-28.6

1.1

5.0

16.6

0.5

0.3

1.1

30.6 -1.9

3.7

0.9

1.4

44.3 -41.4

-38.7

0.4

-17.0 -53.7

-57.3

0.4

560.5

2.2

10.2

0.0

70.1 -31.1 28.0

-10.6

22.5

52.6

6.9

14.1

6.4

4.7

-47.7 10.1

-20.3

2.3

85.0

4.6

15.2

2.8

8.9

-48.9 -9.0

-35.2

4.1

22.6

-2.4 15.6

3.4

2.5

-34.5 39.9

-6.6

0.3

31.8 -11.7 3.0

-5.9

5.1

-34.4 17.7

-11.0

0.6

81.2

26.9

6.5

-2.2

2.7

-48.2 -16.8

-41.8

-1.7

9.0

-16.5 -11.2

-6.7

-1.9

Loss

-2.6

29.3

-0.2 14.5

2.1

4.9

-21.3 73.3

7.0

1.9

15.0 -12.1 21.3

1.2

2.0

-33.2 126.0

6.5

0.6

19.8

-6.2

-3.0

-2.4

2.8

-29.3 -10.5

-13.6

0.0

42.4 -13.6 13.6

-8.1

9.5

-23.3 59.8

4.8

2.3

171.9

2.7

10.0

0.9

28.9 -11.3 43.0

3.6

14.7

159.2

6.2

-5.3

-3.0

26.9

-1.4 -12.2

-8.0

13.5

3.7

15.3 -10.5

-1.4

0.7

19.5 -3.1

35.0

0.4

14.2

24.5

1.7

7.1

2.2

47.7 -7.7

0.9

1.2

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

-1.8

3.6

-9.1

-4.5

-32.9

13.0

31.2

9.9

3.3

-4.8

42.6

25.8

-4.8

-1.2

4.8

-0.7

-46.5 -20.3

-67.0 -60.9

17.5

6.4

21.1

-9.2

7.7

-4.0

2.0

-17.7

11.4

-3.2

12.1

-0.1

-18.6 -15.6

19.1

-22.8

12.6

-4.0

-16.6

-8.0

-39.6 -32.7

62.2

17.7

17.1

1.2

-23.0

63.6

2.1

-4.2

4.2

-6.7

20.3

-0.3

47.3

20.6

12.7

14.1

272.1 63.5

9.3

18.9

33.7

51.7

-20.9 -41.4

14.0

-1.1

21.5

-26.1

-19.0 -42.6

35.0

1.8

21.9

-40.8

-54.7

2.1

-57.3

-3.6

-49.7 -10.7

-71.4

-78.1

7.3

Loss

-33.3 426.8

-56.8

-96.6 -87.6

-68.8 146.3

-17.3

79.2

-11.7 -23.6

30.9

-7.8

62.5

-16.1

Var. over

Exp. (%)

-6.0

-10.1

-16.1

20.7

-2.6

14.7

-11.8

-9.1

-19.5

-59.4

4.6

-12.1

-7.4

-13.0

-5.5

7.9

-6.1

-7.3

1.3

-16.4

-25.6

10.4

11.8

-16.5

-5.9

-4.8

-3.9

27.7

9.5

-3.7

-19.6

-13.7

-35.7

-11.5

2.9

-34.0

3.8

-39.3

-17.0

-28.2

-28.1

-29.8

-60.1

Loss

20.8

18.3

-90.3

-2.9

13.8

-15.1

46.9

-0.6

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja Energy

Apollo Tyres

Ashok Leyland

Bajaj Auto

Balkrishna Inds

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Craftsman Auto

Eicher Motors

Endurance Tech.

Escorts Kubota

Exide Inds.

Happy Forgings

Hero Motocorp

Hyundai Motor

Mahindra & Mahindra

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Wiring

MRF

Samvardhana Motherson

Sona BLW Precis.

Tata Motors

Tube Investments

TVS Motor

Capital Goods

Bharat Electronics

Cummins India

Hitachi Energy

Kalpataru Proj.

KEC International

Kirloskar Oil

Larsen & Toubro

Siemens

Thermax

Triveni Turbine

Zen Technologies

Cement

ACC

Ambuja Cements

Birla Corporation

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Industries

India Cements

J K Cements

JK Lakshmi Cem.

Ramco Cements

Shree Cement

Ultratech Cement

Chemicals-Specialty

Alkyl Amines

Atul

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Company

Clean Science

Deepak Nitrite

Fine Organic

Galaxy Surfactants

Navin Fluorine

NOCIL

P I Industries

SRF

Tata Chemicals

Vinati Organics

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

Hind. Unilever

Indigo Paints

ITC

Jyothy Labs

L T Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Page Industries

Pidilite Inds.

Tata Consumer

United Breweries

United Spirits

Varun Beverages

Consumer Durables

Havells India

KEI Industries

Polycab India

R R Kabel

Voltas

EMS

Amber Enterp.

Avalon Tech

Cyient DLM

Data Pattern

Dixon Tech.

Kaynes Tech

Syrma SGS Tech.

Financials

Banks-Private

AU Small Finance

Axis Bank

Bandhan Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Small Fin.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Dec-24 YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY

QoQ

2.4

23.7

1.1

2.0

1.0

13.7 9.8

14.1

0.7

4.8

11.7

19.0

-5.3

-6.3

2.5

1.7

-44.7 -43.4

-28.3

1.0

-51.4 -49.5

5.2

22.5 -12.4

-18.8

1.0

12.8 -27.1

-34.2

0.9

27.8

-21.3

10.4

10.8 -2.0

-4.6

1.1

-6.2 -17.3

-14.8

0.6

-9.5

-23.7

6.1

21.2 16.9

-7.1

1.5

94.7 37.2

6.2

0.8

131.2 42.1

3.2

-6.6 -12.3

-9.8

0.2

-50.1 -35.9

-32.2

0.2

-37.8 -55.4

19.0

0.2 -14.4

-2.6

5.1

-7.5 -18.5

-6.3

3.7

-16.9 -26.7

34.9

14.4

2.0

-1.4

6.5

12.0 16.6

7.8

3.1

12.4

36.3

35.9

-3.8 -10.2

-6.3

4.3

-19.9 -29.8

-24.2

0.0

5.2

16.4 -5.7

-6.5

1.4

24.5 6.5

-0.1

1.0

24.1

-10.0

877.7

5.7

-1.4

-0.8

201.9 -0.9 -2.0

-3.3

140.8

-5.3

-2.2

85.5

-6.1

6.5

-1.1

16.4 -20.4 32.0

0.9

11.3

-23.5

29.1

45.9

7.9

-1.6

0.8

8.4

2.9

7.9

4.8

5.8

4.3

9.5

14.6

4.7

-9.7

-2.1

4.5

-3.0 -8.6

-7.1

3.2

-2.2

-9.2

33.6

3.1

10.8

0.4

6.8

2.1 23.4

0.9

5.3

1.6

22.5

10.5

5.3

17.8

-0.3

3.4

7.6 35.2

0.9

3.0

6.3

28.8

37.7

3.0

2.8

0.4

7.6

-16.4 -0.8

-3.7

5.0

-14.3

1.4

158.2

1.6

-0.7

-1.5

37.0

0.8 -2.6

-3.7

25.6

1.0

-1.8

3.4

-3.2 14.4

-7.8

0.6

-8.1 37.8

-3.9

0.4

-3.3

59.0

187.9

4.3

-9.4

-2.2

63.6

-2.2 -5.9

-6.7

48.1

-9.9

-3.7

7.0

4.0

-4.0

-1.4

1.2

-2.4 -16.4

-7.8

0.9

-3.9

-16.8

22.7

17.2

7.9

3.1

2.5

4.7

9.0

2.7

1.4

-5.2

-3.5

27.9

15.4

4.9

0.0

5.3

3.9

2.1

-8.1

4.0

4.2

-3.4

47.8

3.9

-6.4

-1.4

11.2

-0.8 -5.8

-4.2

7.0

-10.2

-8.9

12.5

10.1

9.9

1.0

3.7

19.8 27.7

8.1

2.7

17.3

26.8

13.1

6.9

5.4

-2.6

3.0

31.7 7.5

13.7

2.0

34.3

4.8

33.7

7.6

4.1

-0.3

8.0

7.5

3.8

-4.0

5.6

9.2

3.0

44.4

16.8

5.4

0.7

5.6

-1.3 -9.8

2.4

2.8

-18.4 -26.3

20.0

9.6

-5.5

-2.1

1.4

-3.0 -37.8

-23.7

0.6

-24.5 -51.6

34.3

14.8 20.7

1.9

5.9

19.7 16.0

2.6

4.2

20.7

25.5

36.9

38.3 -23.2

2.4

5.8

38.7 -49.6

-1.2

1.9

41.0

-70.0

174.7 15.9

4.3

1.4

17.0

24.9 14.9

2.4

11.0

23.4

5.3

48.9

10.8

7.7

-0.9

4.3

-1.4 13.7

-6.5

2.8

-3.5

3.8

24.7

19.8

8.2

3.2

2.4

12.3 9.2

-3.4

1.6

9.4

6.5

52.3

20.4 -5.0

-1.7

7.2

26.4 14.0

9.3

4.6

10.8

4.0

17.8

9.1

-1.5

1.9

1.1

-1.8 28.9

7.8

0.7

-3.4

38.4

31.1

18.3 18.6

9.6

2.0

594.5 21.7

4.4

1.3

-1.4

149.6 86.9 -2.7

0.8

8.5

77.4 7.3

-1.3

4.1

76.2

4.2

21.3

64.8 26.6

15.9

1.6

102.2 39.6

21.8

0.4

86.4

2.8

31.1

2.1

0.8

0.3

109.2 14.9

7.6

0.2

264.7 37.2

4.4

38.4 14.1

-1.2

0.4

22.8 14.2

-16.6

0.2

-8.7

8.9

1.2

-16.1 28.6

-39.2

0.5

-10.0 57.5

-33.7

0.4

-12.4

47.5

104.5 117.0 -9.4

1.6

3.9

111.8 -8.4

2.6

1.7

77.5

-20.2

6.6

29.8 15.6

-16.2

0.9

34.6 14.5

-21.4

0.7

47.1

10.4

8.7

23.0

4.4

-13.4

0.8

103.8 11.4

12.3

0.5

228.2 40.6

3,032.1 9.9

3.0

-1.5

1,700.0 12.6 -4.0

-1.3

1,055.8 10.6

-2.4

921.9

9.0

1.3

-0.3

693.6 10.5 0.7

0.1

420.4

1.5

-2.9

20.2

52.7

2.4

-0.1

12.0

83.4 6.5

8.5

5.3

40.8

-7.5

136.1

8.6

0.9

-0.4

105.3 15.2 -1.7

2.3

63.0

3.8

-8.9

28.3

12.1 -4.0

-5.6

20.2

22.1 9.0

-15.7

4.3

-41.8 -54.5

5.4

14.5

6.6

1.7

2.7

28.2 6.3

15.2

1.5

19.6

-2.6

8.2

4.2

2.0

-1.3

3.3

-7.6 -4.8

-6.5

0.7

-67.2 415.0

24.3

14.5

2.7

-0.4

15.7

9.2

0.3

1.2

9.6

-5.1

-9.6

306.5

7.7

1.8

1.0

250.0

5.7

1.2

1.0

167.4

2.2

-0.5

203.7

9.1

1.6

-1.6

168.9 14.7 1.0

1.0

117.9

14.8

0.4

Var. over

Exp. (%)

8.9

-32.4

-28.6

-19.0

12.2

-22.7

-8.4

15.7

-7.4

-6.4

-3.5

4.2

-8.2

1.1

-1.3

-8.8

-5.5

-1.6

-9.2

-8.3

-6.9

-7.8

-11.3

4.8

12.3

-5.5

-15.6

-43.0

8.3

-10.2

-5.5

-12.7

-5.7

-0.7

17.6

-13.8

-18.0

1.2

18.7

-36.5

-32.4

-24.2

-25.5

38.7

2.3

-0.8

8.1

-1.3

-46.4

9.4

-17.3

-7.2

0.5

3.2

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Company

IDFC First Bank

IndusInd Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank

RBL Bank

Banks-PSU

Bank of Baroda

Canara Bank

Indian Bank

Punjab National Bank

State Bank

Union Bank

Insurance

HDFC Life Insur.

ICICI Lombard

ICICI Pru Life

Max Financial

SBI Life Insurance

Star Health

NBFC - Lending

AAVAS Financiers

Bajaj Finance

Can Fin Homes

Chola. Inv & Fin.

CreditAccess

Five-Star Business

Fusion Finance

Home First Fin.

IIFL Finance

L&T Finance

LIC Housing Fin

M & M Financial

Manappuram Finance

MAS Financial

Muthoot Finance

PFC

PNB Housing

Poonawalla Fincorp

REC

Repco Home Fin

Shriram Finance

Spandana Sphoorty

NBFC - Non Lending

360 ONE WAM

Aditya Birla AMC

Anand Rathi Wealth

Angel One

BSE

Cams Services

CDSL

HDFC AMC

KFin Technologies

MCX

Nippon Life AMC

Nuvama Wealth

Prudent Corp.

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Dec-24 YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24

49.0

14.4

2.4

-1.1

17.6

12.6 -10.3

-13.2

3.4

52.3

-1.3

-2.2

-1.0

36.0 -10.9 0.0

-0.1

14.0

72.0

9.8

2.5

0.9

51.8

13.5 1.6

-1.0

33.0

15.9

2.5

-1.9

2.0

10.0

30.2 9.5

0.3

887.0

3.6

0.4

-1.7

579.1 11.7 -12.4

-4.3

378.0

114.2

2.8

-1.8

-5.1

76.6

9.3 -19.1

-2.6

48.4

91.5

-2.9

-1.8

-4.8

78.4

15.2 2.4

4.5

41.0

64.1

10.3

3.6

1.1

47.5

15.9 0.4

4.6

28.5

110.3

7.2

4.9

2.4

66.2

4.6 -3.4

0.6

45.1

414.5

4.1

-0.4

-2.0

235.5 15.8 -19.6

-12.9

168.9

92.4

0.8

2.1

0.6

74.9

2.9 -7.7

7.0

46.0

715.0 13.7

9.1

-4.3

36.0

9.5 15.2

2.4

23.0

167.7 10.1

1.2

-8.3

9.3

8.6 -0.9

-3.8

4.1

50.5

17.2

0.4

3.5

-1.5

Loss Loss

Loss

7.2

126.6 23.1

4.8

-5.2

5.2

18.6 -11.8

-13.5

3.2

82.2

12.7

6.3

-2.9

4.9

0.0 -4.5

0.6

0.7

250.0 11.3 22.5

-3.5

18.7

11.3 29.0

4.5

5.5

38.0

15.4

2.6

0.2

-0.5

Loss

2.2

437.3 15.6

3.2

0.6

352.4 15.3 0.6

0.5

204.5

2.5

14.8

4.8

-0.7

1.9

23.3 -0.2

2.7

1.5

93.8

22.6

6.2

0.6

78.1

27.1 6.8

2.0

43.1

3.4

4.8

1.5

-0.3

2.9

1.7

1.2

-0.9

2.1

28.9

33.0

6.4

-0.8

21.3

40.4 10.7

4.0

10.9

8.6

7.5

-7.5

-6.4

6.2

3.5 -7.3

-5.6

-1.0

5.4

28.3

4.6

0.8

3.9

29.4 2.2

-0.6

2.7

2.2

-33.7 -43.7

-39.4

0.6

-75.1 -77.2

-74.5

-7.2

1.6

21.4

4.2

2.9

1.4

27.2 10.7

7.2

1.0

12.4 -21.6 -7.8

-7.4

5.9

-38.2 -30.5

-27.8

0.4

22.4

14.6

2.7

6.0

14.8

10.5 -7.0

2.2

6.3

20.0

-4.6

1.3

0.2

17.5

-7.2 0.4

0.3

14.3

19.1

12.5

5.6

1.7

12.2

15.0 2.1

-1.4

9.0

15.9

9.5

-2.7

-2.3

9.3

-0.6 -9.9

-9.3

2.8

2.1

31.0

7.3

1.6

1.4

25.4 7.7

1.7

0.8

27.2

42.8

8.1

5.9

20.6

47.7 7.5

5.9

13.6

46.9

12.9

6.5

3.1

51.5

16.8 -3.3

8.7

41.5

6.9

16.5

4.3

1.4

5.8

16.0 3.6

0.0

4.8

6.1

25.1

9.8

2.9

3.7

6.5 33.6

1.8

0.2

51.3

19.6

3.3

3.4

50.2

20.4 2.6

0.3

40.3

1.8

9.0

7.7

5.4

1.4

5.4

5.6

4.1

1.1

55.9

13.8

2.3

-1.2

40.8

10.7 2.5

-0.9

20.8

2.7

-13.4 -21.4

-4.5

0.8

-67.4 -65.6

-45.3

-4.4

71.0

39.5

0.1

0.6

38.9

54.4 -1.8

0.5

29.9

6.0

37.7

2.8

6.6

2.9

37.4 -1.3

5.6

2.7

4.5

30.4

4.9

4.6

2.7

41.2 9.5

10.3

2.2

2.4

29.9 -2.2

-6.0

1.1

34.1 2.9

-2.1

0.8

8.9

29.4 -9.0

5.4

3.9

10.4 -32.3

-9.6

2.8

7.7

109.5 3.7

1.9

4.4

140.4 12.0

3.7

2.2

3.7

27.6

1.3

-0.7

1.7

33.6 1.5

-0.9

1.2

2.8

29.7 -13.7

-9.9

1.6

22.2 -19.6

-14.8

1.3

9.3

39.2

5.3

2.6

7.6

49.4 8.6

5.8

6.4

2.9

32.6

3.4

-1.5

1.3

33.4 3.2

-3.4

0.9

3.0

57.4

5.5

-5.2

1.9

7.6

-5.1

1.6

5.9

38.9

2.9

0.4

3.9

48.8 3.0

-0.1

3.0

7.2

29.5 -2.3

-2.5

3.3

44.7 -4.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

35.8 -0.4

-2.5

0.7

31.8 -4.1

-5.8

0.5

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

-52.6

69.1

-39.1

5.3

10.0

-1.2

-86.0 -85.3

23.6

-3.9

5.6

-7.6

12.3

2.2

34.6

5.4

102.8

4.8

17.3

-7.9

28.2

-2.5

28.8

6.5

13.7

-4.2

67.9

4.4

42.8

29.1

-53.8 -49.9

71.2

4.0

-25.7

93.3

5.4

2.1

25.5

-1.0

18.3

7.3

6.0

0.3

24.0

12.8

26.3

2.2

Loss

23.5

5.6

-91.7

-2.3

-10.2

23.1

7.8

62.7 143.4

-51.6 -51.3

25.1

2.0

32.7

8.9

23.0

-4.9

42.8

9.2

-92.9

23.2

0.6

7.2

-5.3

14.4

0.5

Loss

31.7

-11.2

41.7

11.2

7.2

-7.4

33.2

1.4

8.2

-33.5

111.2 -36.8

40.2

2.7

20.8

-19.9

31.0

11.2

34.9

1.0

4.2

4.0

-18.0

43.4

-1.9

35.0

-6.4

Var. over

Exp. (%)

-32.2

-2.3

-2.2

-53.4

9.5

9.9

2.2

10.5

23.6

4.0

26.5

4.5

-4.3

14.2

27.5

-55.6

9.7

-1.2

-2.5

2.6

4.8

-4.2

1.6

0.6

Loss

1.4

-79.7

5.9

11.6

30.6

-44.2

-1.7

2.1

4.9

0.5

-87.7

-2.1

-2.4

-1.2

Loss

-5.3

17.4

4.2

-3.0

-11.3

-40.8

-1.1

-19.6

5.7

-5.8

-7.4

-9.3

4.0

-8.0

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Company

UTI AMC

Healthcare

Ajanta Pharma

Alembic Pharma

Alkem Lab

Apollo Hospitals

Aurobindo Pharma

Biocon

Cipla

Divis Labs

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

ERIS Lifescience

Gland Pharma

Glenmark Pharma

Global Health

Granules India

GSK Pharma

Ipca Labs.

Laurus Labs

Lupin

Mankind Pharma

Max Healthcare

Piramal Pharma

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Zydus Lifesciences

Infrastructure

G R Infraproject

IRB Infra

KNR Constructions

Logistics

Adani Ports

Blue Dart Express

Concor

JSW Infra

Mahindra Logistics

TCI Express

Transport Corp.

VRL Logistics

Media

PVR Inox

Sun TV

Zee Entertainment

Metals

Coal India

Hindalco

Hindustan Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

SAIL

Tata Steel

Vedanta

Oil & Gas

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Dec-24 YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24

3.8

29.4

0.6

-0.6

1.9

67.5 4.2

4.4

1.7

878.8 11.3

0.9

1.2

211.5 21.5 1.3

4.1

131.5

11.5

3.7

-3.4

3.2

-0.3 -4.7

5.0

2.2

16.9

3.8

2.7

0.0

2.6

-2.4 8.8

-2.7

1.4

33.7

1.5

-1.2

2.1

7.6

7.3

0.9

14.8

6.3

55.3

13.9 -1.1

1.4

7.6

24.1 -6.6

0.5

3.7

79.8

8.5

2.3

4.8

16.3

1.7

3.9

-0.1

8.8

38.2

6.0

6.4

2.8

7.9

36.2 14.5

8.4

0.4

70.7

7.1

0.3

1.5

19.9

13.8 5.5

11.9

13.6

23.2

25.0 -0.8

-0.7

7.4

51.9 3.8

5.7

5.8

82.3

14.1

2.7

7.9

21.7

7.1 -1.4

6.3

13.2

7.3

49.6 -1.9

-5.9

2.5

42.6 -5.4

-8.3

0.8

13.8 -10.4 -1.5

-1.5

3.6

-3.8 21.2

19.1

2.0

33.9

35.1 -1.3

-1.8

6.0

-0.3

-3.4

3.5

9.4

12.8 -1.4

7.3

2.4

8.9

2.9

12.0

1.5

11.4

-1.5 17.7

8.9

2.3

-8.1 13.3

-2.0

1.2

9.5

17.9 -6.1

11.8

2.8

29.7 -12.0

14.1

2.2

22.5

9.4

-4.7

-2.1

4.6

39.9 4.7

13.5

2.5

14.2

18.4 15.6

6.1

2.9

57.2 59.9

23.6

0.9

56.9

9.5

2.7

-0.9

13.8

34.7 11.3

10.4

8.6

32.3

23.9

5.0

-3.8

8.9

47.5 5.2

-2.8

4.3

22.7

34.9

7.1

6.2

32.7 8.8

12.0

4.0

22.0

12.5 -1.7

6.4

3.4

25.8 -1.1

48.1

0.0

130.6

7.4

-1.6

-2.4

35.7

14.2 -5.5

-0.7

30.0

28.1

2.8

-2.8

-4.2

9.1

5.2 -2.7

-4.9

5.0

52.7

17.0

0.6

-1.6

13.0

20.2 -8.2

-7.0

9.5

42.3

-9.5 18.6

-0.5

12.9

3.9 26.6

10.5

4.8

15.0 -16.9 33.0

-11.2

1.9

-15.7 64.2

-9.0

1.7

20.3

2.9

27.7

20.5

9.8

13.2 28.4

21.0

2.2

7.1

-21.8 -17.3

-20.0

1.2

-20.4 -15.0

-19.6

0.9

167.2 12.3

7.5

2.0

63.8

13.9 7.4

5.4

37.1

79.6

15.1 12.7

6.2

48.0

14.7 9.9

9.3

26.7

15.1

9.3

4.4

0.1

1.5

8.9 20.0

2.8

0.8

22.0

-0.1

-3.6

-10.4

4.6

-10.4 -20.3

-19.8

3.4

11.8

25.7 18.0

11.0

5.9

22.1 12.6

1.9

4.4

15.9

14.1

4.8

1.2

0.7

41.1 11.0

-6.5

-0.1

3.0

-4.9

-4.8

-10.0

0.3

-36.6 -21.4

-27.4

0.2

11.5

14.5

2.3

0.8

1.2

18.6 1.2

-3.1

1.0

8.3

12.0

3.2

0.9

1.7

76.3 25.1

25.6

0.6

44.9

0.3

-0.7

-4.1

9.9

0.2 -4.8

-11.5

6.6

17.2

11.1

5.9

3.0

2.4

16.9 26.6

4.6

0.7

7.9

-10.4 -11.8

-15.9

4.3

-24.7 -18.3

-26.7

3.5

19.8

-3.3

-1.1

-4.5

3.2

52.2 -0.8

6.3

2.4

2,844.0 4.2

4.7

-0.9

552.4

9.3 19.2

10.8

245.4

357.8 -1.0 16.6

-2.5

104.0 -12.8 45.4

0.2

85.1

583.9 10.6

0.3

-1.9

75.8

29.3 -3.8

-1.1

37.6

86.1

17.8

4.4

5.0

45.0

27.8 9.1

11.0

26.8

117.5

0.4

4.8

-12.5

21.8 -23.2 -0.7

-18.2

9.5

413.8 -1.3

4.3

-1.8

55.8 -22.3 2.6

10.1

7.8

46.6

39.3 16.5

15.5

23.3 201.1 50.3

63.3

15.7

65.7

21.4 33.5

-0.9

23.7

18.2 71.2

6.0

19.0

244.9

4.9

6.3

-4.7

20.3

-5.3 59.1

87.9

1.1

536.5 -3.0

-0.5

2.6

71.5

24.6 29.6

58.1

7.4

391.2 10.1

3.9

1.9

111.0 30.2 13.0

3.4

35.5

7,784.8 0.1

6.5

-1.2

952.2

2.4 22.7

1.2

417.3

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

-14.6 -34.0

24.9

2.2

3.3

-6.8

-23.5

-2.8

-2.6

-9.1

51.8

-1.7

-2.8

7.3

20.3

14.0

4.7

68.5

18.4

-4.3

-3.0

-18.6

-8.7

0.4

25.2

-0.3

18.4

6.8

-6.4

21.0

5.7

-10.9

122.5

7.7

298.9 365.2

42.6

11.3

-5.2

-34.2

16.5

7.4

-89.5 -83.7

21.3

2.4

31.9

11.0

26.3

8.0

13.9

32.2

13.0

45.2

18.4 122.2

5.6

-38.8

16.5

11.0

13.6

8.6

-3.0

30.2

2.7

-13.3

43.2

67.7

Loss

-40.4 -23.7

27.1

-5.2

333.9 65.8

12.8

6.6

65.5 204.5

-20.6 -12.8

129.5 23.1

3.2

24.3

-17.0

35.2

61.5

-11.8

32.1

11.1

-50.7

10.4

-65.8

20.9

232.8 49.7

13.2

58.6

-69.1

68.8

64.1

76.2

20.2

-10.7

12.7

Var. over

Exp. (%)

7.7

4.6

6.7

-14.4

13.3

7.9

-2.9

-38.5

15.0

12.9

10.7

-17.0

13.4

-6.2

13.0

-4.0

15.6

25.1

47.0

13.2

-24.1

7.2

-65.8

1.3

0.1

4.7

4.6

-0.8

10.2

2.4

3.8

1.6

3.7

-2.4

34.5

-28.4

-2.6

41.9

-4.1

34.8

-22.7

29.9

10.7

1.8

-0.1

16.1

-14.4

-4.9

66.3

5.4

281.5

16.2

-6.7

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Company

Oil Ex OMCs

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

Castrol India

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat State Petronet

HPCL

Indraprastha Gas

IOC

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

Petronet LNG

Reliance Inds.

Real Estate

Anant Raj

Brigade Enterpr.

DLF

Godrej Properties

Kolte Patil Dev.

Macrotech Developers

Mahindra Lifespace

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

Prestige Estates

SignatureGlobal

Sobha

Sunteck Realty

Retail

Aditya Birla Fashion

Avenue Supermarts

Barbeque Nation

Bata India

Campus Activewear

Devyani Intl.

Jubilant Foodworks

Kalyan Jewellers

Metro Brands

P N Gadgil Jewellers

Raymond Lifestyle

Relaxo Footwear

Restaurant Brands

Sapphire Foods

Senco Gold

Shoppers Stop

Titan Company

Trent

Vedant Fashions

V-Mart Retail

Westlife Foodworld

Staffing

Quess Corp

SIS

Dec-24

3,609.4

17.1

1,131.4

13.5

349.4

41.5

2.4

1,105.1

37.6

1,939.0

17.6

218.7

52.4

337.2

122.3

2,399.9

153.5

5.3

14.6

15.3

9.7

3.5

40.8

1.7

14.1

9.8

16.5

8.3

12.2

1.6

669.2

43.0

159.7

3.3

9.2

5.1

12.9

16.1

72.9

7.0

24.4

17.5

6.7

5.0

7.6

21.0

13.1

177.4

45.3

5.1

10.3

6.5

125.0

55.2

33.6

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY

QoQ

Exp. (%)

2.5

1.9

3.5

720.3

4.4

8.9

1.8

318.6

-8.2

-8.9

-4.4

-8.9

-2.5

-14.7

2.3

10.0 4.0

-19.8

1.2

-4.5

-1.4

-15.4

-2.0 10.1

11.6

75.8

20.7 68.0

-6.1

46.5

36.9

93.9

-3.2

7.1

5.1

-2.6

3.8

14.2 31.4

24.6

2.7

12.2

30.8

18.1

2.0

6.2

7.1

28.4 -25.8 -24.2

-25.3

14.3

-49.8 -46.6

-43.4

5.7

9.8

0.9

3.8

-5.0 -26.0

0.3

2.2

0.6

-27.8

19.8

-48.2 -0.7

-5.7

1.9

-49.3 -0.2

-0.8

1.4

-48.3 -65.2

-8.3

-0.7 10.6

18.7

64.5 203.3 133.0

30.3

30.2

471.4 378.9

29.0

5.9

1.7

6.7

3.6

-34.9 -32.1

12.1

2.9

-27.1 -33.7

41.0

-2.6 11.5

-20.6

91.7 -41.2 118.6

-10.8

21.9

-72.8

-48.6

12.0

2.7

-1.2

3.1

-29.9 -21.1

-2.9

2.3

-28.9 -20.3

3.4

-11.3 -12.4

1.3

11.9

0.7

41.9

3.0

-21.4

59.1

-9.9

-5.1

-1.8

21.3

1.3 -2.3

-3.0

12.2

-22.9 -33.4

-13.0

-3.1

-0.5

5.1

189.7 10.5 4.0

1.4

82.4

-16.7 -31.2

-12.9

-17.1 -6.1

-8.7

12.5 -26.9 3.9

-5.5

8.7

-27.2

2.3

-3.2

6.6

3.6

4.0

437.9

7.7 12.1

4.0

185.4

7.4

11.9

4.6

35.2

9.7

-8.1

44.1

33.9 19.9

-7.1

35.0

60.3

24.3

1.7

36.3

4.2

49.8

1.3

48.3 18.4

-49.8

1.1

53.7

4.6

-30.8

24.7 36.5

9.2

4.1

57.9 41.7

-3.6

2.4

221.5 98.6

6.8

0.5 -22.6

-10.5

4.0

-21.7 -20.3

12.8

10.6

61.5

36.5

31.8

193.2 -11.4

16.2

0.3

LP -13.7

-63.4

1.6

152.2 -52.6

-43.2

361.4 13.4

-38.6

0.3

LP 58.0

-64.8

0.3

159.8

-24.6

39.3 55.5

5.4

13.1

47.9 85.3

27.2

9.4

64.9 122.2

57.8

104.0 2098.2

60.9

-0.3

Loss Loss

Loss

-0.2

Loss

33.9

6.9

-3.7

8.6

68.1 5.2

-0.3

6.2

71.7

4.9

-1.9

-1.1

6.2

-6.4

5.5

0.2

6.8

-10.3

2.6

-5.2

21.4

-5.8

-7.9 -28.2

-41.2

5.9

7.0 -6.5

-21.7

0.2

-84.8 -90.8

-91.2

193.7 10.5

-25.9

0.1

-86.0

0.3

1195.7 612.9

-63.7

78.7 31.1

4.1

0.7

-9.3 -12.8

-61.9

0.2

43.8

-16.9

-76.3

281.1 -4.3

-46.1

0.5

LP 29.4

-25.2

0.4

22.8

-8.4

21.0 17.1

-1.0

76.7

14.9 29.1

-2.1

34.7

14.8

45.5

-6.4

3.3

18.1

-0.1

6.3

14.8 75.7

11.2

-0.4

Loss

17.7 10.6

0.0

12.2

8.7 11.3

-4.8

7.2

4.7

9.7

-9.9

-0.6

7.6

-3.9

0.6

-7.2 35.0

-5.9

0.1

4.5

-8.2

1.7

9.8

-4.1

2.0

9.4 14.3

-4.5

0.7

15.4

28.7

-11.5

9.1

54.5

-0.8

0.8

46.1 115.3

-11.1

0.5

86.7 225.0

-14.5

53.5

5.9

1.6

2.2

49.9 10.3

2.7

0.0

Loss

18.9

9.8

3.4

3.1

10.6 10.0

-3.0

0.6

-2.2

14.5

-19.1

39.5 20.1

0.8

4.9

33.5 24.6

0.5

2.6

43.8

42.7

-1.7

10.6 20.1

-1.0

2.3

13.1 45.4

0.3

1.2

21.6

67.3

-0.3

23.5 21.7

4.3

1.2

33.3 70.3

2.4

0.9

49.4

62.6

12.0

1.6

2.7

-2.4

1.8

-36.6 -16.3

-26.0

0.6

-60.3 -36.5

-36.8

-6.4

-1.8

-10.5

0.8

-4.3 -4.9

-16.5

0.3

-14.4 -10.1

-27.2

11.2

0.7

1.8

0.8

11.5 12.8

6.6

-0.2

Loss

13.7

8.7

0.8

1.4

14.9 24.8

8.4

0.1

29.5 145.7

-28.4

27.3 40.1

1.8

1.1

-40.6 31.6

-49.5

0.5

-50.4

57.1

-58.4

8.7

22.8

1.4

2.4

11.4 63.4

1.3

0.5

37.2

19.6

25.2 22.1

-3.6

19.3

23.1 26.3

3.9

12.5

18.3

33.8

2.4

36.9 12.4

-2.2

8.4

34.4 30.7

-3.9

4.7

36.6

10.8

-13.9

7.8

90.8

-2.3

2.4

0.1 98.5

-11.0

1.6

0.2

136.1

-12.0

15.5 55.3

0.0

1.7

43.2 343.7

12.0

0.7

153.7

78.5

8.9

5.8

-0.4

0.9

-4.8 16.3

-3.4

0.1

-59.1 1786.4

-43.9

13.6

4.8

2.6

4.4

7.9

4.2

-2.2

2.6

50.4

23.6

-3.1

14.0

6.6

6.5

2.0

9.0

0.9

-0.5

1.0

22.5

11.4

0.0

9.4

2.9

-0.9

1.6

3.6

8.3

-2.3

1.0

176.5 48.4

-1.7

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

Company

Team Lease Serv.

Updater Services

Technology

Coforge

Cyient

HCL Technologies

Infosys

L&T Technology

LTIMindtree

Mphasis

Persistent Systems

TCS

Tech Mahindra

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Indus Towers

Tata Comm

Vodafone Idea

Utilities

Indian Energy Exch.

JSW Energy

NTPC

Power Grid Corp.

Tata Power

Others

APL Apollo Tubes

Cello World

Coromandel International

Dreamfolks Services

EPL

Godrej Agrovet

Gravita India

Indiamart Inter.

Indian Hotels

Info Edge

Interglobe Aviation

Kajaria Ceramics

Lemon Tree Hotel

MTAR Tech

One 97 Comm.

SBI Cards

Swiggy

UPL

Zomato

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Dec-24 YoY QoQ

Exp. (%) Dec-24 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Dec-24

29.2

19.5

4.4

2.2

0.3

-3.2 4.3

-14.0

0.3

6.9

9.3

2.2

-6.9

0.5

32.9 5.7

1.5

0.3

1,967.4 5.9

1.2

0.1

447.5

6.9

2.9

1.6

309.1

33.2

42.8

8.4

2.0

5.2

29.4 7.2

-6.6

2.3

19.3

5.8

4.2

3.7

2.9

-12.1 -3.3

-7.5

1.3

298.9

5.1

3.6

-0.2

68.7

2.6

7.8

1.4

45.9

417.6

7.6

1.9

0.8

100.4

9.8

2.9

3.0

68.1

26.5

9.5

3.1

-1.1

4.9

1.4

6.2

-2.4

3.2

96.6

7.1

2.4

0.7

15.9

0.5 -6.2

3.8

10.9

35.6

6.7

0.7

0.1

6.8

12.9 4.6

8.9

4.3

30.6

22.6

5.7

1.2

5.4

21.7 11.9

4.5

3.7

639.7

5.6

-0.4

-0.8

169.7

3.4

1.1

-0.8

124.4

132.9

1.4

-0.2

0.7

18.1

33.5 3.4

5.5

9.8

223.2

0.5

0.1

0.7

47.4

12.5 4.0

6.5

33.5

13.3

10.1

1.3

0.7

2.1

-0.3 2.9

1.4

1.6

695.6 13.3

6.2

0.1

374.2 29.6 15.8

4.9

8.7

451.3 19.1

8.8

1.4

246.0 24.1 12.6

0.1

55.1

75.5

4.8

1.1

-2.3

69.6

94.1 43.1

34.3

17.4

57.7

2.4

2.3

-3.0

11.5

1.6 10.5

-3.8

2.2

111.2

4.2

1.7

-1.5

47.1

8.3

3.6

-0.5

-66.1

694.3

3.0

-0.3

-9.4

248.6

8.2

3.5

-7.5

97.8

1.3

13.9 -5.7

6.8

1.1

13.0 -6.2

9.1

1.0

24.4

-4.1 -24.7

-37.7

9.1

-17.7 -45.8

-45.1

1.7

413.5

4.8

2.5

4.1

119.6 20.3 23.6

2.1

46.2

101.2 -5.2

-1.4

-11.5

85.2

-9.3 -3.0

-13.9

38.6

153.9

5.1

-2.0

-28.1

33.5

38.7 -10.5

-4.3

10.3

687.9 16.8 11.7

0.2

126.2 33.2 57.4

-12.8

50.4

54.3

30.0 13.8

-6.5

3.5

23.6 150.3

3.9

2.2

5.6

5.7

13.6

-2.2

1.3

-3.6 7.3

-11.1

0.9

69.4

26.9 -6.7

7.7

7.2

101.7 -26.0

8.7

5.1

3.4

11.5

7.3

1.0

0.2

-16.1 -0.6

-11.5

0.2

10.1

4.0

-6.6

-4.9

2.0

9.9 -8.6

-9.2

0.9

24.5

4.5

0.0

-6.0

2.2

38.3 -1.5

-13.4

1.1

10.0

31.5

7.4

4.3

1.0

14.0 0.7

-5.1

0.8

3.5

16.0

1.9

-1.3

1.4

62.1 2.7

29.0

1.2

25.3

29.0 38.7

1.0

9.6

31.3 91.8

-3.4

5.8

6.7

12.8

2.4

-1.8

2.9

20.4 5.6

4.3

2.0

221.1 13.7 30.3

0.8

59.2

8.7 148.5

-15.5

24.4

11.6

1.0

-1.3

-5.0

1.5

-16.8 -6.4

-14.2

0.8

3.6

23.0 24.9

0.7

1.8

31.8 40.9

3.7

0.6

1.7

47.4 -8.3

3.1

0.3

39.4 -9.7

-7.3

0.2

18.3 -35.9 10.1

1.5

-2.2

Loss Loss

Loss

-2.1

15.7

13.2

4.6

0.2

18.3

13.0 4.2

0.8

3.8

39.9

31.0 10.9

3.0

-7.3

Loss Loss

-8.0

109.1 10.3 -1.7

-0.5

21.6 419.7 37.3

8.6

9.9

54.1

64.4 12.6

-1.1

1.6

217.6 -28.3

-37.3

0.6

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY

QoQ

Exp. (%)

3.2

14.1

-26.3

13.5

11.2

12.9

8.8

2.9

-0.1

-2.6

0.3

-22.4

-30.1 -28.1

-24.9

5.5

8.4

1.4

11.5

4.6

-0.5

-5.8

-0.9

-9.3

-7.1

-13.2

-0.7

14.5

1.1

-1.3

30.3

14.7

5.1

5.7

4.1

-2.2

36.8

-21.4

-4.4

24.5

4.5

13.5

-1.2

2.5

11.6

121.3 41.0

11.4

13.0

22.7

17.5

-3.5

127.2

-23.8

Loss

2.9

0.4

-4.7

15.5

-2.8

16.5

-27.4 -80.3

-69.4

6.0

9.9

-3.5

-0.4

10.2

-2.6

8.2

-4.3

17.6

27.9 2022.9

-21.3

31.1 303.2

6.3

1.8

5.8

-8.0

121.6 -22.9

13.4

-15.5

5.6

-10.7

8.6

7.5

1.4

21.4

16.4

-20.9

29.3

8.2

3.5

48.5

-10.5

34.5

28.8

79.7

-2.4

-6.3

133.1

-20.2

-18.6

-33.9

-25.4

-7.7

-24.6

76.5 110.8

-5.8

52.8

-15.0

-17.2

Loss

-30.2

-5.2

-11.1

Loss

22.0

-57.2 -66.5

-77.9

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

February 2025

REPORT GALLERY

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS

February 2025

India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

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SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

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Expected return (over 12-month)

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< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

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India Strategy | Review 3QFY25

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This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;

www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of

Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.

Grievance Redressal Cell:

Contact Person

Contact No.

Email ID

Ms. Hemangi Date

022 40548000 / 022 67490600

query@motilaloswal.com

Ms. Kumud Upadhyay

022 40548082

servicehead@motilaloswal.com

Mr. Ajay Menon

022 40548083

am@motilaloswal.com

Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent

–

CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs

and IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.

February 2025