Sector Update | 24 February 2025
Automobiles
At the SIAM Looking Ahead
Conclave, PV OEMs have
projected the domestic PV
volume to grow between
1-4% for FY26, with growth
likely to be driven by UVs.
Growth moderating for 2Ws and UVs
HMSI closes in on HMCL in domestic 2W ICE
In Jan’25, 2W ICE volume remained flat YoY, while PV volume grew 1.6% YoY.
In 2Ws, ICE scooter volume increased 8% YoY in Jan’25, whereas motorcycle
sales fell 3% YoY, declining for the third consecutive month. On YTD basis, the
motorcycle industry, excluding HMSI, has grown by just 2.6% YoY.
In domestic 2W ICE, the gap between HMCL and HMSI is just 100bp on YTD
basis (just 20bp in Jan’25).
In the motorcycle segment, growth in the 125cc segment decelerated to 7% in
Jan’25, while the 150-250cc segment fell 7% YoY.
HMSI has outperformed in motorcycles and increased its share by 330bp YoY
to 20.2% on YTD basis. In scooters, TVSL has been the biggest gainer, with
share gain of 150bp to 24.8%.
In PVs, growth in UVs has also been decelerating for the last few months, up
just 5.9% YoY in Jan’25. Key outperformers in FY25 so far are MM and Toyota,
which have gained market share by 140bp and 185bp, respectively, in UVs.
Our top picks in auto OEMs are MSIL, MM and Hyundai.
ICE 2Ws: HMSI gains share from HMCL and BJAUT, TVSL share is stable
The domestic 2W industry’s volumes remained largely flat YoY in Jan’25 and
have grown by 9.2% on YTD basis.
The motorcycle segment has grown 7% YoY on YTD basis and the ICE vertical has
increased by 14.3% YoY.
Among OEMs, HMSI has gained share from HMCL and BJAUT in 2W ICE, while
TVSL has managed to maintain its share on YTD basis.
Segmental trends:
Motorcycle segment:
Motorcycle industry declined 3% YoY in Jan’25, falling for the third consecutive
month.
HMSI and RE outperformed industry growth in Jan’25 (up 15%/14%).
As highlighted above, the domestic motorcycle industry has posted 7% YoY
growth on YTD basis.
Only HMSI has outperformed the industry with 28% YoY growth and has
increased its share by 330bp to 20.2%. Excluding HMSI, the industry has posted
just 2.6% YoY growth YTD.
On the other hand, BJAUT has seen the steepest decline in its market share by
165bp to 16.9% YTD. TVSL has lost 70bp share to 9.8%. HMCL has lost 40bp
share to 42.6%.
100cc segment:
The segment continued to underperform the industry, as Jan’25 volume
declined 10.6% YoY. Except HMCL, all players posted double-digit declines in
Jan’25 volumes.
Even on YTD basis, this segment has posted just 2.3% YoY growth.
Research analyst - Aniket Mhatre
(Aniket.Mhatre@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst - Amber Shukla
(Amber.Shukla@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
On YTD basis, HMSI (+20%) and HMCL (+3%) have outperformed the 100cc
segment.
As a result, HMSI has seen 100bp share gain to 7.1% and HMCL has seen 70bp
share gain to 77.9%.
On the other hand, BJAUT has lost 140bp share to 9.2% and TVSL has lost 40bp
share to 5.9%.
For HMCL, Splendor continues to be its key growth driver, with 12.3% YoY
growth YTD. On the other hand, HF/Passion has posted 7.5%/40% YoY decline
in volumes YTD.
For HMSI, growth in 100cc is being driven by Livo (134% YoY growth) and Dream
(+47%). Shine100 has posted just 3% YoY growth YTD.
125cc segment:
Though the 125cc segment has been the key growth driver in motorcycles, its
growth rate moderated to just 7% YoY in Jan’25 (+14.6% YTD).
HMSI has gained 440bp share to 44.5% in this segment and HMCL has gained
220bp to 19.7%. It is important to highlight that while Xtreme125R has done
well, it seems to have also cannibalized its own models in the segment:
Glamour
sales down 21% YoY and Splendor sales down 25% YoY.
Market share for BJAUT/TVSL declined by 290bp/380bp to 24.6%/11.2% for YTD.
For BJAUT, Pulsar125 volumes have declined 5% YoY on YTD basis. After a strong
run-up initially, Freedom 125 sales fell to 1,345 units in Jan’25.
150-250cc segment:
This segment saw a ~7% YoY decline in Jan’25 (up 7.6% YoY on YTD basis).
In Jan’25, BJAUT sales in this segment were down 21% YoY. Even on YTD basis,
sales are down 5% YoY.
HMSI (+44% YTD) and TVS (+20% YTD) continue to outperform in this segment.
HMSI and TVSL have gained 550bp/250bp share to 21.8%/23.6%.
On the other hand, BJAUT has lost 420bp share to 30.6% YTD. While Yamaha has
lost 260bp share to 20%, HMCL has lost 70bp share to 3%. In Jan’25, HMCL did
not sell any units of Karizma.
>250cc segment:
In Jan’25, Triumph sales improved YoY to 4k units.
On the other hand, HMCL’s HD X440 sales declined to 881 units and HMCL’s
Maverick sold just 182 units in Jan’25.
Scooters ICE segment
The segment has clocked 14.3% YoY growth YTD.
TVSL continues to outperform in this segment. It was the only player to have
posted strong double-digit growth (27%) in Jan’25 vs. industry growth of just 8%.
TVSL has gained the most share in this segment by 150bp to 24.8% YTD.
Both HMSI and Suzuki have gained ~35bp share each to 47.7%/16.6%.
On the other hand, HMCL is the only player that has posted 16% YoY decline in
scooters. As a result, its market share has now fallen by 190bp YoY to 5.3%.
24 February 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
PV update – UV mix now stands at 64.9%
PV industry grew by 1.6% YoY in Jan’25 and 1.8% for YTDFY25.
While UVs have grown 12%, cars have declined 14% on YTD basis. As a result,
UVs’ contribution in total PVs has increased to 64.9% so far in FY25.
In the PV segment, MSIL’s market share has fallen by 70bp YoY to 41%, mainly
due to a consistent decline in the passenger car segment, in which MSIL has a
higher share.
Key outperformers this fiscal are MM and Toyota, which have seen their market
share rise by 200bp and 150bp, respectively, for YTDFY25.
Car segment:
The segment declined 5% YoY in Jan’25 and 14.2% YTD.
In Jan’25, the car industry saw a 5% YoY decline, while MSIL posted 5% YoY
growth in cars, driven by a strong push for WagonR (24k units sold in Jan’25).
On YTD basis, MSIL has gained 410bp share to 66.6%.
Except Toyota, which has seen a marginal 30bp share gain, all other players have
lost to MSIL in this segment.
Another point to highlight is that VW Virtus is now the market leader in the mid-
size sedan segment, with Hyundai Verna at the second spot with 28% share.
Honda City’s market share in this segment has now fallen to 19%.
UV segment:
The UV segment continues to outperform, though growth has been decelerating
for the last few months, up 6% YoY in Jan’25 and 11.8% YTD.
Among top gainers, Toyota has gained 190bp share to 9.2% and MM has gained
140bp share to 19.7%.
MM’s growth is driven by Scorpio (+23% YoY), XUV 3XO
(+74%), Thar (+25%), and XUV 700 (+19%).
Further, Thar Roxx volumes stood at
5,303 units for Jan’25, while Thar (3-door) volumes fell to 2,254 units.
MM’s EV wholesales stood at 1,837 units in Jan’25.
MSIL has gained about 40bp market share in UVs to 25.8%.
MSIL’s growth in this
segment is driven by Ertiga (+33% YoY), Fronx (+21%), and Brezza (+13%).
On the other hand, Hyundai/Kia have lost market share by 70bp/100bp YTD to
14.8%/8.9%. Hyundai Creta has clocked its highest-ever sales of 18,522 units in
Jan’25.
For Kia, its wholesales for new Kyros to dealers stood at 5,546 units, while Sonet
sales fell to 7,194 units in Jan’25.
Valuation and view
After a strong demand seen in 1H for both 2Ws and UVs, growth for both these
segments has been moderating after the festive season.
MSIL is our top pick among auto OEMs as it continues to be a play on the rural
recovery with an attractive valuation. We like MM for its healthy demand
momentum in both SUVs and tractors for FY25. We also like Hyundai as it
appears well aligned to benefit from the industry trends toward UVs.
24 February 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Exhibit 1: Domestic 2W volumes grew 9.2% YoY YTDFY25
Total domestic 2Ws ICE Jan-25 YoY (%) YTDFY25
HMCL
4,05,709
-3.1
46,98,736
HMSI
BJAUT
TVSL
Others
Total
4,02,977
1,50,154
2,68,811
2,27,780
14,55,431
5.4
-15.7
6.4
4.9
0.4
45,41,323
17,51,792
27,22,612
22,26,230
1,59,40,693
YoY (%)
4.4
20.8
-2.6
10.3
7.6
9.2
Exhibit 2: Market share trend in overall domestic 2W
Market Share (%) Jan-25
HMCL
27.9
HMSI
BJAUT
TVSL
Others
27.7
10.3
18.5
15.7
YoY (bps)
-102
129
-197
104
66
YTDFY25
29.5
28.5
11.0
17.1
14.0
YoY (bps)
-136
274
-133
16
-21
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Motorcycle volumes grew 7% YoY YTDFY25
Domestic Motorcycles
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
RE
Others
Total
Jan-25
3,74,179
1,50,154
86,197
2,11,356
81,052
33,207
9,36,145
YoY (%)
YTDFY25
YoY (%)
-4.0
44,25,671
6.0
-15.7
17,51,792
-2.6
-15.1
10,16,420
-0.5
15.1
20,96,186
28.1
14.9
7,33,908
4.7
-21.1
3,54,805
-5.7
-3.1
1,03,78,782
6.9
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 4: Market share trend in domestic motorcycle
Market Share (%)
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
RE
Others
Jan-25
40.0
16.0
9.2
22.6
8.7
3.5
YoY (bps)
-39
-240
-131
356
135
-81
YTDFY25
42.6
16.9
9.8
20.2
7.1
3.4
YoY (bps)
-36
-165
-73
334
-15
-45
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Domestic 100CC volumes grew 2.3% YoY YTDFY25
100CC
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
Total
Jan-25
3,21,486
32,175
20,269
22,255
3,96,185
YoY (%)
-8.2
-16.7
-16.4
-25.9
-10.6
YTDFY25
37,61,030
4,43,629
2,82,716
3,43,059
48,30,434
YoY (%)
3.2
-11.1
-4.3
20.1
2.3
Exhibit 6: HMSI and HMCL gained market share
Market Share (%)
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
Jan-25
81.1
8.1
5.1
5.6
YoY (bps)
211
-60
-36
-116
YTDFY25
77.9
9.2
5.9
7.1
YoY (bps)
73
-138
-40
105
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: Domestic 125CC volumes grew ~14.6% YoY
YTDFY25
125CC
HMSI
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
Total
Jan-25
1,51,439
45,701
62,002
27,382
2,86,524
YoY (%)
23.3
55.6
-14.1
-36.8
7.0
YTDFY25
13,58,383
6,01,142
7,49,966
3,40,699
30,50,190
YoY (%)
27.3
29.2
2.6
-14.5
14.6
Exhibit 8: HMSI and HMCL gained major market share in
125cc
Market Share (%)
HMSI
HMCL
BJAUT
TVSL
Jan-25
52.9
16.0
21.6
9.6
YoY (bps)
698
498
-533
-663
YTDFY25
44.5
19.7
24.6
11.2
YoY (bps)
445
222
-288
-379
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 9: 150-250CC volumes grew 7.6% YoY YTDFY25
150-250CC
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
Yamaha
HMCL
Suzuki
Others
Total
Jan-25
50,544
38,144
33,164
30,303
5,911
2,163
219
1,60,448
YoY (%)
-20.8
14.6
25.8
-23.2
-15.2
8.4
90.4
-6.7
YTDFY25
5,04,998
3,89,144
3,59,019
3,29,434
50,028
16,913
814
16,50,350
YoY (%)
-5.3
20.4
44.1
-5.0
-12.1
-31.1
22.0
7.6
Exhibit 10: HMSI and TVSL gained market share
Market Share (%)
BJAUT
TVSL
HMSI
Yamaha
HMCL
Suzuki
Others
Jan-25
31.5
23.8
20.7
18.9
3.7
1.3
0.1
YoY (bps)
-559
443
534
-407
-37
19
7
YTDFY25
30.6
23.6
21.8
20.0
3.0
1.0
0.0
YoY (bps)
-416
252
552
-264
-68
-57
1
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
24 February 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Exhibit 11: Domestic scooters grew 14.3% YoY YTDFY25
Scooters – ICE
HMSI
TVSL
Suzuki
HMCL
Others
Total
Jan-25
1,91,621
1,40,742
85,588
31,530
27,933
4,77,414
YoY (%)
-3.6
29.1
9.1
8.5
7.1
8.1
YTDFY25
24,45,137
12,73,132
8,49,044
2,73,065
2,88,473
51,28,851
YoY (%)
15.2
21.5
16.8
-15.8
8.9
14.3
Exhibit 12: Market share trend in domestic scooters
Market Share (%)
HMSI
TVSL
Suzuki
HMCL
Others
Jan-25
40.1
29.5
17.9
6.6
5.9
YoY (bps)
-491
479
15
2
-6
YTDFY25
47.7
24.8
16.6
5.3
5.6
YoY (bps)
37
147
35
-191
-28
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 13: Domestic PV volumes grew 1.8% YoY YTDFY25
Passenger Vehicles
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
Hyundai Motors
Tata Motors
Kia Motors
Toyota Kirloskar Motors
Others
Total
Jan-25
1,73,599
50,659
54,003
48,076
25,025
26,147
21,877
3,99,386
YoY (%)
4.1
17.6
-5.4
-10.4
5.3
12.8
-14.2
1.6
YTDFY25
14,49,233
4,53,019
4,99,119
4,67,067
2,04,656
2,54,547
2,11,033
35,38,674
YoY (%)
0.2
20.2
-2.4
-2.3
0.3
29.1
-19.5
1.8
Exhibit 14: Domestic PV market share trend
Market Share (%)
MSIL
M&M
Hyundai
TTMT
Kia
Toyota
Others
Jan-25
43.5
12.7
13.5
12.0
6.3
6.5
5.5
YoY (bps)
103
173
-101
-161
22
65
-101
YTDFY25
41.0
12.8
14.1
13.2
5.8
7.2
6.0
YoY (bps)
-67
196
-61
-55
-9
152
-158
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 15: Domestic car volumes down 14.2% YoY YTDFY25
Cars
Maruti Suzuki
Hyundai Motors
Tata Motors
Honda Cars
Toyota Kirloskar Motors
Others
Total
Jan-25
97,256
16,917
10,260
5,366
3,652
3,874
1,37,325
YoY (%)
4.9
-21.8
-42.8
31.0
-9.9
572.1
-2.6
YTDFY25
7,41,407
1,58,016
99,675
34,699
42,184
37,859
11,13,840
YoY (%)
-8.6
-17.9
-37.7
-23.2
-6.8
-15.5
-14.2
Exhibit 16: Domestic car market share trend
Car Market Share (%) Jan-25
MSIL
Hyundai
TTMT
Honda
Toyota
Others
70.8
12.3
7.5
3.9
2.7
2.8
YoY (bps)
507
-302
-525
100
-21
241
YTDFY25
66.6
14.2
8.9
3.1
3.8
3.4
YoY (bps)
410
-63
-336
-36
30
-5
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Exhibit 17: UV volumes up 12% YoY YTDFY25
Utility Vehicles
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
Hyundai Motors
Tata Motors
Kia Motors
Toyota Kirloskar Motors
Others
Total
Jan-25
65,093
50,659
37,086
36,493
25,025
22,495
12,637
2,49,488
YoY (%)
4.9
17.6
4.5
5.4
5.3
17.5
-27.5
5.9
YTDFY25
5,94,056
4,53,019
3,41,103
3,54,536
2,04,656
2,12,363
1,38,475
22,98,208
YoY (%)
13.7
20.2
6.9
14.9
0.3
39.9
-19.6
11.8
Exhibit 18: Domestic UV market share trend
UV Market Share (%)
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
Hyundai Motors
Tata Motors
Kia Motors
Toyota Kirloskar Motors
Others
Jan-25
26.1
20.3
14.9
14.6
10.0
9.0
5.1
YoY (bps)
-25
202
-20
-7
-6
89
-233
YTDFY25 YoY (bps)
25.8
19.7
14.8
15.4
8.9
9.2
6.0
42
138
-69
41
-102
185
-235
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Source: SIAM, MOFSL
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
24 February 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
NOTES
24 February 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
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Specific Disclosures
1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).
MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.
Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company
2. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report:No
3. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).
6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.
7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
24 February 2025
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
8.
MOFSL may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies)
in the past 12 months.
9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.
10. MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
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financial interest in the subject company
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actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the
public appearance.
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received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though
there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
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received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
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Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider
demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not
considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research
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