Motilal Oswal Financial Services

CONTENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS



India experiences a falloff during

the month—the weakest among

peers in CY25YTD



MSCI China rebounds from the

lows; MSCI India underperforms



US indices extend their

outperformance; Indian markets

decline further



Equities underperformed gold

since Sep’24 highs

DOMESTIC MARKETS



Market-caps shrink; valuations

dip further



More stocks fall sharply than

reach highs



Broad-based weakness

continues, with all sectoral

indices reporting a decline MoM



3QFY25 earnings growth remains

modest across indices

FLOWS AND VOLUMES



DII inflows strong, while FII selling

continues



Monthly average cash volumes hit

a 15-month low, while F&O

volumes dip marginally



India’s VIX below its average

despite sharp drawdowns

KEY RESEARCH REPORTS



MOFSL Review: A modest

3QFY25; earnings downgrade

ratio worst since 1QFY21!



Logistics: Anchoring solutions |

Navigating success

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS/LOWS



Current bout of correction in

line with historical median



Nifty recoups the peak-to-

trough loss in ~200 days on

average



Private banks' weights increase,

while those of Technology dip

sharply on a MoM basis



Forex reserves rise after a

decline for four consecutive

months

VALUATIONS



Valuations across sectors

moderate from the highs; large

caps trade at a discount, while

broader markets still at a

premium



Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E

trades at 18.6x, 9% below its LTA.



India’s market capitalization-to-

GDP ratio down from an all-time

high on a year-end basis

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

A view from the EAGLE’S EYE!

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Market-caps shrink; valuations dip further



Nifty-50/Nifty-500/Nifty Mid-cap 100/Nifty Small-cap 100 indices’ market-caps declined 15%/18%/20%/28% from their peaks, bringing them to levels seen at

the beginning of CY24. Additionally, their respective valuations have dipped 19%/19%/20%/16% from the highs and are even lower than the levels of CY24.

Market-caps and valuations of key indices declined 15-30% from their peaks

Nifty-50 market-cap (INR t)

P/E (x)

23.0x

Nifty-500 market-cap (INR t)

P/E (x)

23.7x

+17%

21.1x

-15%

18.6x

21.6x

+20%

-18%

209

178

Feb'24

Sep'24

427

19.3x

179

Feb'25

350

Feb'24

Oct'24

349

Feb'25

Nifty-Mid-cap 100 market-cap (INR t)

34.8x

P/E (x)

Nifty-Small-cap 100 market-cap (INR t)

P/E (x)

23.9x

+40%

21.1x

-28%

+24%

30.3x

-20%

27.2x

May'24

Oct'24

20.0x

Feb'25

Dec'23

Jul'24

Feb'25

Note: The 12m forward P/E (x) has been considered.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS More stocks fall sharply than reach highs, while the index turns flat YoY



About 51% of Nifty-500 stocks had gained more than 20% between Feb’24 and the index's peak in Oct’24.



While Nifty-500 market caps fell to Feb’24 levels, about 65% of stocks have dropped more than 20% from the index's peak to the present level.

Nifty-500 stock performance – Feb’24 to Oct’24 peak

135

51% stocks

142

117

Feb'24 to Oct'24 Peak

Up 40%

Up 20%-40%

Up 0-20%

Down 0-20%

Down 20-40%

Below 40%

Nifty-500 stock performance Oct’24 peak to Feb’25

Oct'24 Peak to Feb'25

275

65% stocks

145

Up 40%

Up 20%-40%

Up 0-20%

Down 0-20%

Down 20-40%

Below 40%

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Current market falloff is close to the historical median

Nifty-50’s decline from peak to trough in different drawdown phases

-10%

-15%

-11%

-17%

-16%

-28%

-23%

-38%

-17%

-60%

Nifty MidCap 100

Nifty SmallCap 100

Nifty SMIDs’ decline from peak to trough in different drawdown phases

-14%

-25%

-38%

-16%

-19%

-16%

-25%

-21%

-23%

-21%

-32%

-24%

-21%

-25%

-38%

-45%

-46%

-69%

-77%

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS

Nifty recoups the peak-to-trough loss in ~200 days on average



It has historically taken approximately 200 days for Nifty-50 to recover to the previous peak levels.



Markets may be in the latter stages of correction; the current correction phase has already lasted about six months.

Phases of more than 10% Nifty correction

Nifty 50 drawdown

All-time high

date

Total decline during

drawdown

All-time high

Trough date

27-Oct-08

20-Dec-11

25-Feb-16

23-Mar-18

26-Oct-18

19-Sep-19

23-Mar-20

17-Jun-22

28-Feb-25

Recovery from trough to next peak

Period

8-Jan-08

6,288

5-Nov-10

6,312

3-Mar-15

8,996

29-Jan-18

11,130

28-Aug-18

11,739

3-Jun-19

12,089

14-Jan-20

12,362

18-Oct-21

18,477

26-Sep-24

26,216

Median Value

Nifty 50 %

No of days taken for

Nifty 50 trough

Date of Nifty 50

Nifty 50 max decline

recovery from Nifty 50 recovery from

value

new all-time high

trough

the trough date

2,524

-60%

5-Nov-10

150%

739

4,544

-28%

3-Nov-13

39%

684

6,971

-23%

14-Mar-17

30%

383

9,998

-10%

24-Jul-18

11%

123

10,030

-15%

16-Apr-19

18%

172

10,705

-11%

27-Nov-19

13%

7,610

-38%

9-Nov-20

64%

231

15,294

-17%

24-Nov-22

21%

160

22,126

-16%

-17%

26%

202

Note:

Each drawdown phase is identified when the Nifty 50 index experiences a decline of 10% or more from its previous all-time high. This phase is considered complete once a

new all-time high is reached. For consistency, we have maintained a fixed reference point for both the previous all-time high and the subsequent new all-time high dates. Based

on this framework, we have analyzed the maximum drawdown and the subsequent recovery from the lows for the

Nifty 50, Nifty Mid-Cap, and Small-Cap indices,

respectively.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS India’s VIX below its average despite sharp drawdowns



Historically, market drawdowns have seen increased volatility; however, this has not been the case in the current drawdown phase.

India’s VIX continues to trade below its four-year average of 15.1x, while that of the US remains above its average of 19.1x.

India

Nifty volatility index

Nifty closing

24,000

21,000

18,000

15,000

12,000

VIX average 15.1

USA

S&P500 VIX

S&P500 closing

6,180

5,510

4,840

VIX average 19.1

4,170

3,500

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS



Indian markets have stayed healthy across all the terms of the US presidents

Indian markets have remained volatile since Donald Trump took charge and have underperformed in the past 4-5 months.

However, the Indian markets (Nifty-50) delivered decent growth across the US presidents’ terms.

While the correlation remains low, Nifty IT significantly outperformed Nifty Pharma during the same period.

India Nifty-50 performance

USA S&P500 performance

US S&P500 CAGR (%)

(in USD)

Nifty-50 CAGR (%)

(in INR)

-3

-5

George Bush George Bush

Barack

Barack Donald Trump Joe Biden Donald Trump

2000-04

2004-08 Obama 2008- Obama 2012- 2016-20

2020-24

2024-25YTD

George Bush George Bush

Barack

Donald

2000-04

2004-08 Obama 2008- Obama 2012- Trump 2016-

Joe Biden

2020-24

-5

Donald

Trump 2024-

25YTD

India Nifty IT performance

Nifty IT CAGR (%)

India Nifty Pharma performance

(in INR)

Nifty Pharma CAGR (%)

(in INR)

-5

-13

George Bush George Bush

Barack

Barack Donald Trump Joe Biden Donald Trump

2000-04

2004-08 Obama 2008- Obama 2012- 2016-20

2020-24

2024-25YTD

George Bush George Bush Barack

Barack

Donald

2000-04

2004-08 Obama 2008- Obama 2012- Trump 2016-

Joe Biden

2020-24

Donald

Trump 2024-

25YTD

Note: Returns have been considered between the announcement of election results for two Presidential terms.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS



Equities have underperformed gold since the Sep’24 highs

Gold prices have spiked in recent years as the EM central banks boosted demand to reduce USD reliance and hedge geopolitical risks.

While US and Indian equities outperformed gold over the past decade, gold has outpaced global equities in the past six months.

Gold outperformed key equity markets over the past six months

(in USD)

Equities outperformed gold during Feb’15-Sep’24

Feb'15-Sep'24 CAGR (%)

Sep'24-Feb'25 change (%)

(in USD)

-1

-5

-13

-16

-17

Gold vs global equity market performance over the past decade

Feb'15-Feb'25 CAGR (%)

(in USD)

Nasdaq

S&P 500

Mid-cap100

Gold

Small-cap100

Nifty50

China

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS



Large-caps trade at a discount to history; broader markets still at a premium

Nifty-50 valuations have dropped 16% from their Sep’24 highs, while mid- and small-cap valuations have fallen 22% and 25%, respectively, over

the same period.

Nifty-50 is trading at a 9% discount to its LPA, while mid- and small-cap indices are trading at 22% and 25% premiums to their LPA, respectively.

Nifty-50 P/E (x)

22.8

21.6

19.3

19.2

21.4

22.3

21.6

23.0

Valuation trend across Nifty-50, Nifty Mid-cap 100 and Nifty-Small-cap 100 indices

Average 20.5x

19.0

19.6

21.3

18.7

18.6

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25YTD

CY24 Peak

Feb-25

Nifty Mid-cap 100 P/E(x)

34.8

31.7

Nifty Small-cap 100 PE (x)

23.9

21.8

20.5

27.2

18.6

20.0

17.7

16.2

13.4

13.5

15.5

Average 22.3x

22.9

17.2

16.9

18.6

19.7

17.1

24.8

26.2

22.3

25.4

Average 16.1x

16.0

13.0

The 12-month average of one-year fwd P/E has been considered for the year across indices

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS



Valuations across sectors moderate from the highs

Valuations of key sectors have moderated from their 2024 highs, trading below the 10-year average for Auto, Private Banks, Consumer, and Oil &

Gas. However, they remain above the 10-year average for Capital Goods, Healthcare, Technology, and Metals following the recent market falloff.

Auto P/E (x)

37.8

32.2

29.2

28.9

37.2 36.7

Average 26.9x

21.6

20.6

17.4

18.8

28.3

29.6

26.3

Pvt. Banks P/E (x)

Consumer P/E (x)

54.3

Average 42.7x

Average 20.7x

19.0 18.9

15.1

16.1 16.8

17.6

16.0

39.8

36.0 36.9

37.0

41.9 41.1 42.4

45.2

42.9

46.8 47.8

39.0

25.6

21.8

17.2

18.7

20.5 20.1

Capital Goods P/E (x)

48.0

Healthcare P/E (x)

Average 27.7x

30.1 31.2 29.0

25.8

25.7

18.4

22.2

32.9

28.2

25.1

27.7

28.7

18.0 16.9

15.8 14.9

Technology P/E (x)

35.7

29.0

24.5 25.1

20.8

30.0

27.1

Average 29.5x

35.8

30.0

25.7 27.5

23.7

26.4

28.9 28.0

22.1

34.0

42.9

31.4

Average 21.6x

18.5 18.6

23.9

Pvt. Banks P/B (x)

2.9 2.8

Metals P/B (x)

2.7

O&G P/B (x)

1.9

2.4

2.7

2.4

2.7

Average 2.5x

2.5

Average 1.5x

2.0

1.6

1.5

1.4 1.3

1.5 1.5 1.5

Average 1.7x

1.9

1.5 1.6

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.2 1.0

1.8 1.7 1.9

1.7

2.3

2.3 2.3

1.4

1.2

1.4

Note: The 12-month average of one-year fwd P/E and P/B has been considered for the year across sectoral indices

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Real GDP growth improves in 3QFY25

Real GDP growth projected at 6.5% in FY25



Real GDP grew 6.2% in 3QFY25, better than MOFSL forecast of 5.7% and in line with the consensus of 6.2%.



The improvement in real GDP growth was mainly led by the six-quarter highest growth in final consumption expenditure (7.1% in 3QFY25

vs. 5.3%/5.6% in 3QFY24/2QFY25). Both private and government consumption witnessed an improvement during the quarter. Additionally,

real net exports added 2.5pp to real GDP growth in 3QFY25 (the highest contribution in seven quarters).



Nominal GDP growth was 9.9% in 3QFY25, lower than 12.9% in 3QFY24 but better than 8.3% in 2QFY25.

Report link

Real GDP growth improved to 6.2% YoY in 3QFY25

Real GDP growth (% YoY)

Nominal GDP growth (% YoY)

9.9

Private consumption growth accelerated while investment growth weakened

Private consumption

(% YoY)

Investment (GFCF)

8.3

9.3

5.8

5.7

5.9

1QFY25

6.9

5.7

3QFY25

5.6

3QFY22

1QFY23

3QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

6.2

3QFY25

3QFY22

1QFY23

3QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

Imports contracted while exports grew 10.4%, leading to a higher

contribution of net exports

(% YoY)

Exports

Imports

Real GVA growth improved to 6.2% YoY in 3QFY25

Real GVA growth (% YoY)

12.0

9.9

6.6

9.2

8.0

5.0

4.3

5.5

5.3

7.3

6.5

5.8

6.2

10.4

(8)

3QFY21

3QFY22

3QFY23

3QFY24

-1.1

3QFY25

3QFY22

1QFY23

3QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS MOFSL Review: A modest 3QFY25; earnings downgrade ratio worst since 1QFY21!



The aggregate earnings of the MOFSL universe companies were in line with our estimates, with earnings of Nifty-50 growing 5% YoY.



Large-cap and mid-cap earnings in the MOFSL universe grew 5% and 26%, respectively, while small-cap earnings declined 24% in 3QFY25.

Report link

Sales

(INR b)

Dec-24

(actual)

3,195

946

561

159

878

175

150

3,032

922

887

715

437

879

167

2,844

7,785

3,609

154

669

125

1,967

696

694

688

25,851

22,819

15,222

21,675

14,952

19,616

4,564

1,671

Growth

(%)

Actual

QoQ

YoY

-5

-1

-3

-10

-1

6.1

5.0

5.6

5.2

9.9

4.2

7.8

3.9

5.9

4.3

5.9

5.2

7.0

5.0

6.9

2.3

Sales

Var. over

Exp. (%)

-1

-2

-3

-1

-2

-4

-1

-4

-1

-8

-1

-9

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.8

-2.1

2.8

-1.3

Vs Exp

In Line

Below

In Line

Below

In Line

EBITDA

(INR b)

Dec-24

(actual)

406

106

202

1,700

694

579

352

211

552

952

720

448

374

249

126

5,661

3,961

4,156

5,429

3,655

4,423

963

276

Growth

(%)

actual

QoQ

YoY

-1

-31

-1

-12

-1

-2

-4

-12

-2

-5

9.2

7.1

7.8

12.7

10.8

2.7

9.8

5.0

8.4

5.1

7.9

6.3

17.8

10.0

2.6

9.6

EBITDA

Var. over

Exp. (%)

-5

-3

-11

-8

-3

-1

-4

-11

-7

-2

-7

-12.8

-0.1

0.4

-1.7

-0.1

-0.2

-0.7

4.6

-6.2

Vs Exp

In Line

Below

In Line

Above

Below

Above

In Line

Below

In Line

Below

In Line

Below

PAT

(INR b)

Dec-24

(actual)

234

141

1,056

420

378

205

131

245

417

319

309

2,927

1,872

2,265

2,829

1,964

2,394

424

109

Growth

(%)

Actual

QoQ

YoY

-2

-55

-12

-24

-5

-2

-3

-4

-11

-8

-9

2,023

6.0

6.6

3.6

12.4

10.1

3.9

7.1

3.7

4.7

2.2

4.9

5.1

26.1

17.8

-23.6

0.8

PAT

Var. over

Exp. (%)

-6

-4

-17

-15

-6

-18

-1

-3

-5

-4

-7

-4

-6

-3

-5

-21

-0.7

-2.3

-0.6

-0.2

-0.3

-0.9

7.4

-19.8

Vs Exp

Below

In Line

Below

In Line

Above

In Line

Below

In Line

Above

Below

In Line

Below

In Line

Above

In Line

Below

In Line

Above

Below

Sector

Automobiles (25)

Capital Goods (11)

Cement (11)

Chemicals (12)

Consumer (20)

Consumer Durables (5)

EMS (7)

Financials (60)

Banks-Private (12)

Banks-PSU (6)

Insurance (6)

NBFC - Lending (22)

NBFC - Non Lending (14)

Healthcare (24)

Infrastructure (3)

Logistics (8)

Media (3)

Metals (10)

Oil & Gas (15)

Oil Ex OMCs (12)

Real Estate (13)

Retail (21)

Staffing (4)

Technology (12)

Telecom (4)

Utilities (5)

Others (19)

MOFSL Universe (292)

MOFSL Ex Financials (232)

MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil (267)

MOFSL Ex OMCs (289)

Nifty (50)

Large Cap (84)

Mid Cap (87)

Small Cap (121)

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Nifty-500 3QFY25 earnings review: Growth modest across indices



Key indices reported moderate earnings growth in 3QFY25. Financials, Healthcare, Technology, and Telecom drove aggregate earnings, while commodities

weighed on Nifty-500 earnings in 3QFY25.

Telecom, Financials, and O&G drove Nifty-50 earnings in 3QY25

Nifty-50 PAT (INR b)

-1

-6

YoY change (%)

Financials, Telecom, and Healthcare drove Nifty-500 earnings in 3QFY25

Nifty-500 PAT (INR b)

YoY change (%)

PSBs and Telecom drove Nifty Mid-cap 100 earnings in 3QFY25

Mid-cap100 PAT (INR b)

-3

-12

-2

YoY change (%)

119

PSBs, Healthcare, and Telecom drove Nifty Small-cap100 earnings in 3QFY25

Small-cap100 PAT (INR b)

YoY change (%)

-1

-4

-6

-20

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Macro, Markets, and More…

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

India experiences a falloff during the month, the weakest among peers in Feb’25/CY25YTD

MoM performance of global equity indices in USD terms (%)

MoM change (%)

-1

-2

-3

-6

-7

CY25YTD performance of global equity indices in USD terms (%)

CY25YTD change (%)

-1

-3

-4

-8

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

MSCI China rebounds from the lows; MSCI India underperforms since its Sep’24 highs

Performance of MSCI India vs. MSCI US, MSCI World, MSCI Emerging Market, and MSCI China in USD terms

MSCI China outshone global indices over the past 5 months

Performance since MSCI India’s peak in Sep-24 (%)

(in USD)

-6

MSCI China outpaced global indices over past one year

YoY Change (%)

(in USD)

MSCI China

MSCI US

MSCI World

MSCI EM

-22

MSCI India

MSCI China

MSCI US

MSCI World

MSCI EM

-6

MSCI India

MSCI US outdid peers over the past 10 years

10-yr CAGR (%)

(in USD)

MSCI US/MSCI India outperformed MSCI World over the past 20 years

20-yr CAGR (%)

(in USD)

MSCI China

MSCI US

MSCI India

MSCI World

MSCI China

MSCI EM

MSCI US

MSCI World

MSCI India

MSCI EM

Data as of 28

Feb’25

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Most sectors suffer a sharp MoM dip; private banks outperform

Sectoral performance MoM (%): Mid-caps and small-caps fell sharply MoM

MoM change (%)

-1

-6

-8

-11

-13

-8

-10

-11

-2

-11

-12

-13

-14

Sectoral performance since CY25YTD highs (%): Private Banks and Metals indices declined less than their peers in CY25YTD

CY25YTD change (%)

-2

-6

-16

-22

-5

-9

-10

-11

-14

-15

-18

-24

Note: (*) represents BSE capital goods index.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

About 82% of Nifty constituents end lower in Feb’25



Among Nifty constituents, 41 stocks closed lower MoM and 29 underperformed the benchmark. Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv,

and Hindalco posted notable gains, whereas Trent, BHEL, and Power Grid were the key laggards.



About 39 Nifty constituents traded lower in CY25YTD. Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, and Maruti Suzuki were the top gainers, whereas Trent, Dr.

Reddy’s, and BPCL were the key laggards.

Best and worst Nifty performers on MoM basis (%)

-6

-12

-13

-14

-15

-16

-17

Best and worst Nifty performers in CY25YTD (%)

-6

-16

-17

-18

-19

-20

-32

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

About 10% of BSE-200 constituents end higher in Feb’25



In Feb’25, 10% of BSE-200 stocks closed higher. GSK Pharma, Abbott India, and Cholamandalam Fin. gained the most during the month.



21 BSE-200 constituents traded higher in CY25YTD. SBI Cards, UPL, and SRF were the top gainers.

Top gainers from the BSE-200 pack on MoM basis (%)*

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

Top gainers from the BSE-200 pack ’CY25YTD (%)*

-9

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

*The list excludes Nifty constituents.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

About 90% of BSE-200 constituents end lower in Feb’25



In Feb’25, 180 companies closed lower. RVNL, Tube Investments, and IRFC were among the key laggards.



About 179 of BSE-200 companies traded lower in CY25YTD. Oracle Finance, Oberoi Realty, and Polycab India were the key laggards in

CY25YTD.

Key laggards among the BSE-200 constituents on an MoM basis (%)*

-7

-17 -17 -17 -17

-17

-17 -17 -17 -16

-16

-20

-19 -18 -18 -18 -18

-26

-23 -22 -22 -22

-22

-21 -21 -20

-26 -24 -24

-30

Key laggards among the BSE-200 constituents in CY24YTD (%)*

-9

-23

-22 -22

-22

-26 -26 -26 -26

-26

-25 -24 -24

-29 -29 -29 -28

-28

-28 -28 -27

-33

-32 -31 -31 -31 -30

-39

-36

-35

*The list excludes Nifty constituents.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Private banks' weights increase, while those of Technology dip sharply on a MoM basis



In Feb’25, the weights of Pvt. Banks, NBFCs, and Metals rose, while weights of Technology, Autos, Consumer, and Capgoods declined MoM.

Weightage in the Nifty (%)

Dec’20

Dec’21

Dec’22

5.4

5.0

5.3

24.7

21.9

24.2

1.8

2.3

2.9

12.3

11.4

10.6

2.6

3.0

3.1

2.2

2.4

1.8

10.4

9.4

10.3

3.6

3.4

3.8

2.0

2.9

12.5

12.3

12.1

10.7

10.8

11.0

1.1

1.4

2.0

2.1

2.5

16.3

19.1

14.0

2.1

2.5

1.0

1.2

2.6

100

Automobiles

Banks – Private

Banks – Public

NBFC + Insurance

Capital Goods

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Metals

Oil and Gas

Reliance

Retail

Telecom

Technology

Utilities

Miscellaneous

Nifty

Dec’08

2.5

5.0

5.4

2.3

7.7

1.7

6.5

2.6

4.8

24.5

10.6

0.0

11.6

9.0

13.3

3.3

100

Dec’12

8.8

16.9

4.7

7.9

5.9

4.2

12.3

5.0

3.8

12.3

7.4

0.0

2.0

11.4

4.5

0.5

100

Dec’23

6.5

28.2

2.6

4.5

4.4

2.1

10.8

4.0

3.0

10.5

9.2

1.6

2.7

13.6

3.6

1.9

100

Jan’25

7.6

26.5

2.8

5.0

2.1

9.0

3.9

2.7

9.6

8.1

2.6

4.1

14.0

3.6

1.3

100

Feb’25

7.2

28.2

2.7

5.6

4.6

2.0

8.6

3.8

3.0

9.6

8.2

2.4

4.2

13.1

3.5

1.3

100

Note: The merger of HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd. resulted in a shift in weightage from NBFCs to private banks in CY23.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

DII inflows remain strong, while FII selling continues



FIIs’ selling bout extended, offloading USD5.4b in Feb’25; DIIs invested USD7.4b, marking the 19

consecutive month of inflows.



DII inflows during CY21-25YTD reached USD147b, while FII flows were negative during the same period.

Monthly institutional flows (USD b)

FII (USD b)

5.0

1.8 1.9

6.7

4.1

1.7

7.0

DII (USD b)

5.9

4.0

0.5

-1.1

-3.0

3.1 3.3

1.4

12.8

10.0

2.3

1.3

3.7

0.3

-0.4

0.5

-0.3

3.0 2.4 3.4

3.2 3.1

6.8

5.3

2.3

-5.4

6.7

7.4

5.8

5.3

3.8

-0.6

-2.3-2.7

-3.1

-2.2

1.7 1.6

3.4

2.8

4.0

-8.4

-10.9

Yearly institutional flows (USD b)

FII(USD b)

14.2

23.4

Cumulative

outflow of

USD 6.4b

21.4

DII(USD b)

Cumulative inflow

of USD 147b

62.9

3.8

32.2

22.3

-0.8

-4.6

-17.0

-13.8

15.9

6.0

12.1

17.5

-5.0

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Monthly average cash volumes hit a 15-month low, while F&O volumes dip marginally



Monthly average cash volumes declined 5% MoM in Feb’25 to a 15-month low of INR966b (down 41% from the highs of Jun’24).



Non-institutional participation accounted for 43% of the total cash volumes (lowest since Jul’18 barring Mar’24)



Monthly average F&O volume was down 4% MoM at INR288t (down 46% from the Sep’24 highs).

Monthly Avg. Cash Volume (INR b)

1750

1350

950

550

150

Non Institution % to Cash Volume (RHS)

Monthly Avg F&O Volume (INR t)

720

540

360

Cash % to Total Volumes

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

180

0.3

0.4

0.0

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

The 10-year yield spread between India and the US remains flat MoM



The GoI 10-year bond yield was steady at 6.7% during the month, while that of the US fell 30bp MoM to 4.2% in Feb’25. Consequently, the yield

spread expanded 30bp MoM to 2.5%.

India 10-year yield

12.0

India’s fiscal tightening,

strong economic growth led by

the global book, and Fed

raising rates

9.0

Fed cuts rates to zero

after the GFC

GFC

Fed raises rates

US 10-year yield

Fed easing,

US-Sino trade

war, and

COVID-19

outbreak

Fed tightening,

geopolitical

uncertainties,

sharp rise in bond

yields

Fed starts easing

rates, geopolitical

uncertainty

sustains, bond

yields moderate

from the highs

6.7

6.0

2.2

2.5

6.9

6.0

3.9

4.2

4.4

3.0

0.0

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Forex reserves rise after declining for the fourth consecutive month



India’s forex reserves increased 2% MoM to USD640b in Feb’25 (down ~9% from the Sep’24 highs of USD705b).



On the currency front, INR:USD declined 1% MoM to an all-time low of INR87.5 (down 5.5% YoY).

Forex Reserves (USD b) (RHS)

USD:INR

INR had its best run

during the CY03-07 global

bull run, when GDP

growth and corporate

earnings growth were

high and the twin deficits

– CAD and FD – were

among the lowest in two

decades.

Eurozone crisis, taper tantrum, and

devaluation of RMB – the taper tantrum

episode in CY13 drove the INR down

sharply to 68 from 55 in just four

months. This was a period of high

inflation and INR depreciation.

Low inflation has characterized

the period post-CY15. INR has

been relatively less volatile

despite several global

headwinds. Forex reverses are

surging.

The pandemic impact and geopolitical

tensions led to global volatility, high

liquidity, followed by quantitative

tightening, sharp currency

depreciation, but a resilient economy.

700

560

420

Pre-GFC peak

in FX reserves

280

140

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Key reports from MOFSL’s research desk in Feb’25

Earnings review – A modest 3QFY25; Earnings downgrade ratio worst since 1QFY21!

Report link>>



The aggregate earnings of MOFSL universe companies were in line with our estimates and increased 6% YoY. Earnings for

Nifty 50 rose 5% YoY.



The aggregate performance was hit by global commodities (i.e. Metals and O&G). Excluding the same, the MOFSL universe

and Nifty posted 10% and 7% earnings growth, respectively.



The MOFSL universe delivered a 2.3% YoY earnings growth in 9MFY25. Excluding Metals and O&G, it reported an 11.8% YoY

earnings growth.



The earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio of 0.3x was the worst since 1QFY21.



The MOFSL universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7%/15%/19% YoY in FY26, mainly led by Financials, Oil &

Gas, and Metals.

Logistics: Anchoring solutions | Navigating success

Report link>>



The Indian ports sector is poised for significant growth. Between FY23 and FY28, the country’s ports are projected to add

500-550MTPA of capacity annually, driven by increased handling of petroleum, oil, lubricants, coal, and containerized cargo.

Cargo traffic is expected to grow at a steady annual rate of 3-6%, stabilizing utilization levels at ~55% over the medium term.



Container traffic growth is anticipated to report an annual growth rate of 4-7% over the next five years. Transshipment,

which accounts for roughly 25% of India’s container throughput, continues to be a crucial segment, with ports like Chennai

playing a significant role.



While the industry growth rate is expected to be 4-7% over the next five years, both APSEZ and JSWINFRA are poised for

sustained growth of 2-3x the industry, supported by continued organic and inorganic expansions and integrated logistics

solutions. Both these companies are likely to gain market shares.



We reiterate our BUY rating on APSEZ and JSWINFRA. JSWINFRA is our top pick in the ports domain.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Key observations

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Nifty’s 12-month trailing P/E declines from its highs



The 12-month trailing P/E for Nifty moderated 6% MoM (down 16% from Sep-24 high) and stood at 21.2x at a 6% discount to its LTA.



At 3.3x, the 12-month trailing P/B was 5% above its historical average of 3.1x.

12-month trailing Nifty P/E (x)

Long-term average: 22.7x

21.2

12-month trailing Nifty P/B (x)

3.7

Long-term average: 3.1x

2.7

3.3

1.7

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E dips from its highs



Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E traded at 18.6x, 9% below its LTA and down 19% from Sep-24 high.



At 2.9x, the 12-month forward P/B was trading at a premium of 3% to Nifty’s historical average of 2.8x.

12-month forward Nifty P/E (x)

Long-term average: 20.5x

18.6

12-month forward Nifty P/B (x)

3.4

Long-term average: 2.8x

2.9

2.6

1.8

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

EY/BY spikes MoM, reaching its highest level since Nov’20 on a trailing basis



India’s 10-year bond yield stood at 6.7% (flat MoM). As a result, EY/BY jumped above its LPA on a trailing and forward basis.

Trailing Earnings Yield/G-Sec Yield (x)

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

15 Year Avg: 0.67%

Earnings yield (12-month trailing)/G-Sec yield

0.70

Forward Earnings Yield/G-Sec Yield (x)

EY/BY spiked sharply

during the GFC

Earnings yield (12-month forward)/G-Sec yield

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.5

It remained below 1x for the last

six years, except for a brief

period during demonetization

15 Year Avg: 0.73%

0.80

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Valuation snapshot – Indices erase yearly gains, while broader market valuations stay high



While mid-caps and small-caps have declined sharply from their Sep’24 highs, their valuations continue to trade at a premium to the averages.



Barring large-caps and banks, most sectors continue to trade at a premium to their LPA.

NSE indices: Valuation snapshot

Indices

Feb'25 closing

YoY change (%)

EPS (12m fwd)

P/E (12m fwd)

P/E (10 yr average)

P/B (12m fwd)

P/B (10 yr average)

RoE (%)

Nifty 50

Nifty mid-cap Nifty small-cap

Nifty 500

100

22,125

47,915

14,700

19,881

-1

-8

-1

1,049

1,741

729

1,007

18.6

28.2

20.8

20.2

20.5

22.4

16.0

19.4

2.9

4.1

2.8

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.0

2.8

15.7

13.5

13.2

14.4

Auto

20,499

1,033

20.6

19.4

3.4

2.9

16.4

BANK

48,345

4,099

11.9

15.9

2.0

2.1

15.3

Capital

Goods

55,241

-4

1,805

31.3

25.4

5.5

3.4

17.7

FMCG

50,689

-6

1,421

36.6

33.5

8.1

8.5

22.1

37,318

-1

1,472

26.5

20.9

6.9

5.0

27.2

Metal

8,219

605

13.8

11.0

2.0

1.3

14.1

Energy

30,018

-23

2,326

13.2

11.5

1.9

1.4

14.2

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL; as of 28

Feb’25| LPA: Long Period Average, i.e. 10-year average

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio down from an all-time high on a year-end basis



India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio stood at 120%, down ~26% from the Sep’24 highs of 146%; it is trading above its long-term average of ~85%.



The market cap-to-GDP ratio for large-caps declined sharply, while mid-caps and small-caps continue to trade near their highs.

Market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)

Nominal GDP growth in FY24/FY25E: 9.6%/9.2%

146

GFC: Peak of 149% in Dec’07

Lowest since the GFC

132

113

138

132

120

105

Average of 85% for the period

103

9…

Large-caps market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)

Mid-caps market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)

Mid-caps market cap-to-GDP (%)

Average 13%

9 9

17 18 16

Small-caps market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)

Small-caps market cap-to-GDP (%)

Average 11%

6 7

Large caps market cap-to-GDP (%)

Average 61%

55 57 57

16 14

10 8

Note: Large, mid, and small market cap-to-GDP ratios represent the breakdown of the aggregate market cap-to-GDP ratio.

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Top ideas

Company

MCap

(USDb)

CMP

(INR)

FY24

Preferred large-cap stocks

Reliance Inds.

186.6

Bharti Airtel

114.8

ICICI Bank

98.5

St Bk of India

71.8

Hind. Unilever

60.3

Larsen & Toubro

50.4

Sun Pharma.Inds.

45.2

Maruti Suzuki

44.5

M&M

37.4

Titan Company

32.8

Trent

19.5

LTIMindtree

16.5

Preferred mid-cap/small-cap stocks

Indian Hotels

11.8

Dixon Tech.

9.4

JSW Energy

9.1

BSE

8.0

Godrej Properties

6.7

JSW Infra

6.2

Coforge

5.7

Page Industries

5.3

IPCA Labs.

4.0

Metro Brands

3.6

Angel one

2.3

1,200

1,570

1,203

688

2,192

3,165

1,594

11,945

2,584

3,075

4,853

4,668

50.6

36.9

66.3

89.2

44.1

106.2

49.2

462.3

99.3

42.8

45.0

158.7

EPS (INR)

FY25E

61.0

44.9

71.7

97.3

49.3

135.4

59.5

512.4

124.6

53.4

61.4

182.1

EPS

CAGR (%)

FY26E FY24-26E FY24

67.9

62.0

82.0

112.6

54.1

156.5

66.6

573.4

145.1

63.8

78.2

212.8

15.9

29.6

11.2

12.4

10.8

21.4

16.4

11.4

20.8

22.1

31.9

15.8

23.7

42.5

18.1

7.7

49.7

29.8

32.4

25.8

26.0

71.8

107.9

29.4

PE (x)

FY25E

19.7

35.0

16.8

7.1

44.5

23.4

26.8

23.3

20.7

57.6

79.1

25.6

FY26E

17.7

25.3

14.7

6.1

40.5

20.2

23.9

20.8

17.8

48.2

62.1

21.9

FY24

1.9

8.9

3.1

1.3

10.0

4.5

5.2

4.0

5.0

22.7

28.5

6.1

PB (x)

FY25E

1.7

7.0

2.6

1.1

9.9

3.9

4.4

3.6

4.2

17.8

20.5

5.3

FY26E

1.6

6.3

2.3

1.0

9.7

3.4

3.8

3.2

3.6

14.1

15.2

4.7

FY24

8.3

23.5

18.3

18.8

20.2

15.9

17.2

14.8

21.0

35.5

32.9

22.0

ROE (%)

FY25E

9.3

24.2

17.0

17.2

22.4

17.8

17.9

15.3

22.2

34.6

32.3

22.2

FY26E

9.5

28.2

16.8

24.2

17.9

17.1

15.2

21.7

32.7

30.1

22.8

716

13,950

464

4,634

1,936

255

7,364

40,393

1,353

1,120

2,168

11.8

130.8

13.7

88.5

51.3

6.7

133.9

613.6

34.3

13.7

148.5

15.3

174.2

17.2

137.9

64.4

7.7

227.1

709.4

45.8

17.1

160.7

18.1

250.6

18.2

167.7

64.8

9.8

282.3

841.0

56.5

21.8

214.6

23.7

38.4

15.4

37.6

12.4

20.9

45.2

17.1

28.3

26.3

20.2

60.5

106.6

33.9

52.4

37.7

38.1

55.0

65.8

39.4

82.0

14.6

46.9

80.1

26.9

33.6

30.1

33.0

32.4

56.9

29.6

65.4

13.5

39.5

55.7

25.4

27.6

29.9

26.1

48.0

24.0

51.4

10.1

9.0

33.9

3.6

17.1

3.1

5.9

11.6

25.7

4.9

13.9

3.2

7.6

24.0

3.2

14.9

2.8

5.2

9.9

22.1

4.3

11.8

2.8

6.4

16.8

2.9

12.8

2.6

4.5

8.3

19.0

3.7

9.9

2.4

16.2

37.7

11.0

32.7

10.4

16.4

22.2

39.0

13.0

18.5

28.6

17.7

35.1

12.5

44.2

9.8

16.7

32.8

38.8

15.4

19.9

22.2

17.7

35.5

12.0

46.3

9.0

18.5

34.5

39.5

16.5

21.4

25.4

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Quant Research & India Strategy Gallery

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

NOTES

CHART BOOK | March 2025

June 2020

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent

with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,

Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on

www.motilaloswal.com.

MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the

Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual

Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. are available on the

website at

http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf

Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relatives may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst or their relatives may have actual beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject

company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance. MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may have any other potential

conflict of interests at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance, however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s)

are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

In the past 12 months, MOFSL or any of its associates may have:

received any compensation/other benefits from the subject company of this report

managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.

•

MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.

•

Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

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June 2020

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Companies where there is interest

Analyst ownership of the stock

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

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Contact: (+65) 8328 0276

June 2020

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form,

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Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to

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June 2020