Sector Update | 18 March 2025
Financials: Banks
MOFSL BFSI Picks: Sector performance to remain divergent
Selective on Private Banks; NBFCs and Non-lending Financials better positioned
MOFSL
BFSI picks
FY25 has been a challenging year for the BFSI sector, with the Bank Nifty and Nifty
Financial index posting returns of 2.6% and 12.1%, respectively, compared to 0.8% returns
from the Nifty 50 index. Despite these headwinds, several stocks have delivered healthy
double-digit returns, such as HDFCB (18%), ICICI (16%), KMB (12%), and FB (18%). While
FY26 may begin on a softer note, with earnings expected to continue decelerating in 1H,
we believe that the visibility of earnings recovery for banks, margin tailwinds for NBFCs as
the sector pivots back to growth, and a gradual recovery in Capital Markets
—
supported by
valuations
—
will provide attractive investment opportunities over the year. We have
analyzed nearly 70 BFSI companies in our coverage and summarized our thoughts on
various BFSI segments and preferred ideas below.
Segment
MOFSL
BFSI picks
ICICI Bank
HDFCB
KMB
Federal bank
SBIN
AU SFB
Shriram Finance
PNBHF
Home First
L&T Finance
HDFC Life
ICICI Lombard
HDFC AMC
Angelone
Nuvama
CAMS
Banks: Earnings growth to bottom out in FY26 and recover thereafter
Private banks
PSU Bank
SFBs
Vehicle Financiers
Housing Finance
Diversified
Life insurance
General insurance
AMCs
Broking and
exchanges
Wealth management
Intermediaries
Banking system credit growth has sharply decelerated to 11% YoY vs an average
of 16% over FY23-24. Challenging macro conditions and slower GDP growth may
hinder credit growth recovery in FY26. We currently factor in credit growth to
sustain at 12.5% in FY26, with competition for deposits likely to remain
elevated.
The reversal in the repo rate cycle and limited room for banks to cut TD rates
will keep margins in check. Elevated slippages and asset quality stress,
particularly among mid-sized private banks with exposure to unsecured retail
and MFI segments, are expected to drive higher provisioning expenses.
Additionally, continued normalization in credit costs in secured segments will
drive further earnings moderation in the banking sector.
We, thus, estimate that earnings growth for our coverage banking sector will
moderate to 8.4% YoY in FY26, before recovering to 14.5% YoY, as margins
recover following a repricing of funding cost.
Nifty Financial Index outperforms Nifty 50; Bank Nifty moves in line
During FY25YTD,
Nifty Financial
outperformed Nifty 50 by 11%, while Nifty Bank
performed broadly in line with a modest 1.8% outperformance. The divergence
in banking stock performance continued, with private banks delivering mixed
returns, while PSU banks significantly underperformed, as evidenced by a 17%
decline in the PSU Bank index during FY25YTD.
Interestingly, while the
Nifty Private Bank Index
delivered a modest 2.7% return
during FY25YTD, several large cap banks such as HDFCB, ICICIBC, and Kotak Bank
delivered solid returns of 18%, 16%, and 12%, respectively. Mid-sized PVBs,
including Federal Bank, CUB, and KVB, led the pack with returns of 18%, 13%,
and 8%, respectively. On the other hand, IIB, RBK, and IDFCB were the biggest
underperformers, with losses of 56%, 36%, and 30%, respectively.
The
NBFC sector
has performed well, supported by the reversal in the rate cycle
and indications from select NBFCs that credit costs have either peaked or are
nearing their peak. Further, the reduction in the repo rate, translating into a
positive NIM outlook for the sector (mainly vehicle financiers), will continue to
Nitin Aggarwal - Research Analyst
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Dixit Sankharva
(Dixit.sankharva@MotilalOswal.com) |
Disha Singhal
(Disha Singhal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.