1 April 2025
E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
Impact of reciprocal tariffs on India to be minimal
India’s US exports of 1.1% of GDP to be the most vulnerable
The US is one of the largest trading partners of India, with bilateral trade of USD124b in CY24. Exports from India to the
US reached USD81b, and imports from India to the US amounted to USD44b, resulting in a trade surplus of USD37b for
India in CY24. The US is India’s largest export destination, with its share reaching 18% in CY24 from 13% in CY14 and 6% in
CY06. Notably, India’s imports from the US (as a % of total imports) have remained stable at ~6% in CY24 vs. ~5% in CY14
(Exhibits 1 and 2).
India’s top exported items to the US are electronics (15.6% of total exports to the US), gems & jewelry (11.5%), pharma
products (11%), machinery for nuclear reactors (8.1%) and refined petroleum products (5.5%). India’s top imported items
from the US are energy commodities like crude oil, natural gas and coal (30.7% of the total imports from the US),
pearls/precious stones (11.8%), machinery (9.5%), electronics (6.8%), and aircraft and parts (4.6%) (Exhibits 3 and 4).
India's goods trade surplus with the US has seen a twofold increase in the past decade, rising from USD19b (0.9% of
India's GDP) in CY15 to USD37b (1.0% of GDP) in CY24. The surge in the trade surplus is primarily attributed to a
heightened trade surplus in electronic items after the implementation of a production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme in
2020. Apart from electronic items, higher exports of pharma and textiles have driven India’s trade surplus with the US
over the past decade (Exhibits 5 and 6).
The Trump administration introduced the Reciprocal Tariff Plan (a strategy to equalize tariffs, taxes and non-tariff
th
barriers with other nations) on 13 Feb’25, allowing the US to raise tariffs on countries with a trade deficit. The first set
nd
of reciprocal tariffs is expected on 2 Apr’25.
The tariff structure shows that India charges higher tariff rates in most product categories. The weighted average tariff
rate imposed by India on imports from the US was ~12% in CY23, while the tariff charged by the US on Indian imports is
~3%, leading to a tariff differential of 9%. This could lead to roughly 12pp (product-level full reciprocity) increase in US
effective tariff rates on Indian imports. Notably, India faces the largest tariff gap vs. other major nations. However, the
US’ trade deficit with India (or India’s surplus with the US) is only the 10th highest among the US’s trading partners,
which might cushion it from specific targeting, in contrast to Mexico, Canada, and China (Exhibits 7 and 8).
To identify the potentially vulnerable sectors, we consider a tariff differential with the US and the value of
exports/imports to/from the US. For this analysis, we divide India’s HS-2 level export data (98 HS-2 codes) into five
categories, depending on the extent of tariff differential and the value of exports:
Category 1:
Higher tariff differential (td>10%) and higher value of exports (x>USD0.5b) assuming trade surplus (TB>0)
Category 2:
td>10% but x<USD0.5b assuming TB>0
Category 3:
td<10% but x>USD0.5b assuming TB>0
Category 4:
td<10% and x<USD0.5b assuming TB>0
Category 5:
items in which India has a trade deficit with the US (TB<0)
Items in category 1 and category 3 are the most vulnerable and more likely to be affected. Items in category 1 have a
higher tariff differential (>10%) as well as a higher value of exports to the US. These include seafood and preparations,
articles of iron and steel, and machinery for nuclear reactors (16.5% of the total exports to the US and 0.3% of India’s
GDP). Items in category 3 have a tariff differential of less than 10% but the value of exports to the US is high, making
them vulnerable to the impact of reciprocal tariffs. These include items like pharma products, gems and jewelry, apparel,
electrical machinery, etc. (62% of the total exports to the US and 1.3% of India’s GDP). All items in these two categories
account for 79% of India’s exports to the US (USD64.1b or 1.6% of India’s GDP) but consist of only 19 of the 98 HS-2 codes
(Exhibits 9, 10, 13, 14).
Within categories 1 and 3, we identify the six most vulnerable and exposed items. These are electrical machinery, gems
and jewelry, pharma products, machinery for nuclear reactors, and iron & steel and seafood. These six items sum to
USD42.2b, amounting to 52% of the total exports to the US and 1.1% of India’s GDP. The exact impact on these sectors is
difficult to quantify as it depends on the sensitivity of exports of these items to an increase in the tariff rate and
movement of the exchange rate (Exhibits 11, 12).
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)
Tanisha Ladha–
Research Analyst
(Tanisha.ladha@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Items in categories 2, 4, and 5 are less vulnerable and less likely to be affected. Items in category 2 have a higher tariff
differential but the value of exports is less than USD0.5b, making it vulnerable but less likely to be affected. This category
includes 29 of the total 98 HS codes and mostly consists of items from the agriculture and allied sectors. Items in category
4 have a lower tariff differential as well as a lower value of exports, making them neither vulnerable nor likely to be
affected. Lastly, items in category 5 are those in which India has a trade deficit with the US (India imports more than it
exports, mainly include energy commodities, metals and auto), making them less vulnerable to the tariffs since imposing
tariffs on these items will hurt the US more.
Overall, we believe that the impact of reciprocal tariffs (assuming full product-level reciprocity) on India will be limited
on a national basis. India’s exports in the six most vulnerable sectors amount to only 1.1% of India’s GDP. With a tariff
differential of 9% and assuming that the elasticity of India’s exports to the US with respect to tariffs is -0.5 (implying a 1%
rise in the tariff rate would reduce India’s exports to the US by 0.5%), there will be a loss of USD3.6b in exports to the US,
which is only 0.1% of India’s GDP (-0.5*9, 4.5% fall in India’s exports to the US).
Exhibit 2:
…with the trade balance reaching USD37b in CY24
from USD13.1b a decade back
20
UK
3%
Saudi
Arabia
3%
16
12
8
Bangladesh China
3%
4%
Singapore
3%
4
6.2
CY2006 CY2009 CY2012 CY2015 CY2018 CY2021 CY2024
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry, CEIC, MOFSL
Trade balance with the US (USD bn, rhs)
Share of US in India's exports (%)
Share of US in India's imports (%)
18.2
40
36.7
30
20
10
0
Exhibit 1:
India’s exports to the US amount to 18% of its
total exports in CY24…
India's exports composition in 2024
EU
17%
Others
41%
US
18%
UAE
8%
Exhibit 3:
15 major export items account for 80% of total exports to the US
India's major exports to the US in CY24 (USD mn)
Electrical Machinery
Gems and jewellery
Pharmaceutical Products
Nuclear Reactors, boilers and machinery
Refined petroleum products
Articles of iron and steel
Textile articles
Auto & auto ancillaries
Non-knitted apparel articles
Organic chemicals
Knitted apparel
Marine products
Plastic articles
Miscellaneous chemical products
Carpets and other textile floor coverings
Furniture
Others
India's total exports to the US
India's exports
to the US
12,580
9,299
8,875
6,572
4,465
2,955
2,948
2,660
2,591
2,588
2,586
1,969
1,631
1,243
1,196
1,150
15,465
80,774
(% share in total
exports to the US)
15.6
11.5
11.0
8.1
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.4
19.1
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry
1 April 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 4:
13 major import items make up 86% of the total imports from the US
India's major imports from the US in CY24
(USD m)
Refined petroleum products, coal etc
Gems and jewellery
Nuclear Reactors, boilers and machinery
Electrical Machinery
Aircraft, spacecraft and parts
Optical, photographic and surgical equipment
Plastic articles
Organic Chemicals
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Fruits and nuts
Ships, boats and floating structures
Articles of aluminium
Iron and steel
Others
India's total imports from the US
India's imports
(% share in total
from the US
imports from the US)
13,521
30.7
5,198
11.8
4,181
9.5
2,999
6.8
2,017
4.6
2,002
4.5
1,571
3.6
1,273
2.9
1,224
2.8
1,114
2.5
1,029
2.3
899
2.0
842
1.9
6,208
14.1
44,075
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry
Exhibit 5:
India’s trade balance with the US is driven by
higher exports of pharma, electronics and textiles
Others
Pharmaceutical Products
Electrical machinery
21.1
7.1
4.3
6.8
Exhibit 6:
India’s trade surplus with the US stood at 1% of
GDP in CY24
India's trade balance with the US (% of GDP)
Gems & jewellery
Textiles
Total
29.9
28.7
9.7
6.3
5.7
31.2
36.7
9.6
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
18.9
6.8
4.4
4.8
19.1
6.9
4.9
8.0
22.2
17.3
7.3
4.7
3.6
17.5
7.6
6.0
2.8
6.6
6.7
3.4
9.4
7.6
8.2
7.1
4.7
9.2
8.5
4.1
6.1
7.0
CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24
CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 7:
India has the highest tariff differential with the US
among major nations
9.0
Tariff differential with the US (weighted avg., in pps)
Exhibit 8:
US’s trade deficit with India is not very high,
China/EU/Mexico likely to be worst affected
US trade balance in CY24 (USD bn)
5.3
5.2
4.3
2.3
1.9
1.1
1.0
0.1
Source: WITS, CEIC, MOFSL
1 April 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 9:
Items with exports>=USD0.5b and tariff
differential>=10% comprise 16.5% of total exports to the US
Exports to the US (USD b)
50.8
% share in exports to the US
62.9
Exhibit 10:
….and constitute only 0.3% of India’s GDP
% share in total exports
11.5
% share in GDP
16.5
13.3
5.8
7.1
3.1 3.9
7.8
9.7
3.0
0.3
1.3 0.1
1.3
0.7 0.1
1.8 0.2
TB<0
td>=10%,
td>=10%,
td<10%,
td<10%,
x>=USD0.5b x<USD0.5b x>=USD0.5b x<USD0.5b
TB<0
td>=10%,
td>=10%,
td<10%,
td<10%,
x>=USD0.5b x<USD0.5b x>=USD0.5b x<USD0.5b
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry, WITS, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 11:
Electrical mach., gems & jewelry, pharma,
nuclear reactors, iron & steel, seafood; most vulnerable…
Tariff differential (%)
Share in India's exports to US (%)
19.2
18.0
12.3
8.1
3.7
Exhibit 12:
….amounting to 1.1% of India’s GDP
India's exports to the US (% of GDP)
0.33
0.24
0.23
0.17
0.08
0.05
15.6
11.5
9.6
5.9
10.0
11.0
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry, WITS, CEIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 13:
Higher tariff differential and higher value of exports
Category (td>=10%, x>= USD0.5b)
Tariff
Differential
(%)
18.0
30.0
17.5
19.2
12.3
India's US
exports
(USD b)
2.0
0.6
1.2
3.0
6.6
13.3
Share of US
in India's
sector
exports (%)
32.1
81.2
58.3
29.3
20.2
Trade
balance
1.9
0.6
1.2
2.7
2.4
8.8
Seafood
Preparations of meat
Carpets And Other Textile Floor Coverings
Iron and steel
Nuclear reactors, boilers and machinery
Total
1 April 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 14:
Lower tariff differential but higher value of exports
Category (td<10%, x>=USD0.5bn)
Organic Chemicals
Pharmaceutical Products
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Plastic And Articles
Rubber And Articles
Articles Of Leather
Knitted apparel
Non-knitted apparel
Other textile articles
Articles Of Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos
Gems & jewellery
Electrical Machinery
Vehicles Other Than Railway Or Tramway Rolling Stock and parts
Furniture
Total
India's US
Share of US in
Trade
exports
India's sector
balance
(USD b)
exports (%)
2.6
12.3
1.3
8.9
38.0
8.5
1.2
18.1
0.0
1.6
20.1
0.1
0.9
19.0
0.7
0.7
29.2
0.7
2.6
34.4
2.6
2.6
31.6
2.6
2.9
48.8
2.9
1.0
43.7
0.9
9.3
31.1
4.1
12.6
31.3
9.6
2.7
12.0
2.1
1.1
45.0
1.1
50.8
37.0
Source: Ministry of commerce and industry, WITS, CEIC, MOFSL
Tariff
differential
(%)
7.3
10.0
8.5
6.8
9.4
6.9
4.9
6.2
3.1
8.6
9.6
5.9
8.1
6.9
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
1 April 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
1 April 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following
30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is
already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
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licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose
possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be
liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
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This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;
www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of
Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person
Contact No.
Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
022 40548082
servicehead@motilaloswal.com
Mr. Ajay Menon
022 40548083
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs
and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited
(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
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