Motilal Oswal Financial Services

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Financials - NBFCs

Result Preview

Strong seasonality missing in the quarter

Seasonality notwithstanding, collection and demand trend remained rather muted



Demand momentum remained weak in 4QFY25:

We expect ~9% YoY growth in

AUM for our coverage HFCs, including both affordable and large HFCs. Vehicle

financers are projected to report ~20% YoY AUM growth. Gold lenders

(including non-gold products) are likely to record ~29% YoY growth. NBFC-MFIs

are estimated to post a decline of ~15% YoY in AUM, while diversified lenders

are expected to deliver ~21% YoY growth in AUM. For our NBFC coverage

universe, we estimate loan growth of ~15% YoY/~4% QoQ as of Mar’25.

Notwithstanding seasonality, demand trends and loan growth remained flat

during the quarter due to calibrated growth in unsecured retail, muted

disbursements in microfinance and low mortgage volumes.

Lag in transmission of repo rate cut; borrowing costs largely stable QoQ:

CoB

for most NBFCs has either been stable or seen a minor decline because of the

repricing of EBLR-linked borrowing. However, the transmission through bank

MCLR cuts is yet to happen and most NBFCs are of the view that it will happen

with a lag of 3-6 months. 4Q NIM for NBFCs would exhibit stability or a minor

compression, primarily because of some pressure on yields. We expect NIM to

remain stable or see a minor improvement for fixed-rate lenders like vehicle

financiers, which will also benefit from any subsequent repo rate cuts over the

next 3-6 months. We expect a sequential expansion in NIM for CIFC (from higher

yields) and MFIs (from lower interest income reversals).

4Q collection trends weaker YoY; MFI CE improved but credit costs still high:

Asset quality remained largely stable or saw a minor improvement, driven by

significant collection efforts during the quarter. Asset quality, which usually

improves significantly in 4Q, is not clearly there in this quarter. Collection

efficiencies for MFIs have improved MoM, and even Karnataka collections saw a

sharp recovery in Mar’25 (vs. Feb’25). While credit costs for all MFIs under our

coverage will decline sequentially, they still remain high at ~9%-34% in 4QFY25.

Asset quality for HFCs (including affordable HFCs) is largely stable with an

improvement bias. Power financiers are also expected to report improvement in

asset quality, driven by the complete resolution of a stressed asset. Credit costs

for vehicle financiers will be significantly higher in this quarter than in 4Q of the

previous fiscal years.

Earnings flat YoY for our coverage universe owing to sticky credit costs and

lower NII growth:

We estimate ~13%/15% YoY growth in NII/PPoP in 4QFY25 for

our NBFC coverage universe, though PAT is expected to be flat YoY. Excluding

NBFC-MFIs, we estimate ~5% YoY growth in PAT for our coverage universe. We

remain underweight in microfinance and would closely monitor any impact on

collections from the implementation of MFIN guardrails 2.0 from Apr’25. Our

preference is for vehicle financiers (primarily to play NIM expansion from repo

rate cuts), select affordable HFCs and diversified lenders (which have navigated

the unsecured credit cycle and are now looking to grow their unsecured loan

book again). Our top picks in the sectors are: SHFL, HomeFirst and PNBHF.

Company

Aavas Financiers

Bajaj Finance

Can Fin Homes

Chola Inv. & Fin.

CreditAccess Grameen

Five Star Business Finance

Fusion Microfinance

HomeFirst

IIFL Finance

L&T Finance Holdings

LIC Housing Finance

M&M Financial Services

Manappuram Finance

MAS Financial Services

Muthoot Finance

PNB Housing Finance

Poonawalla Fincorp

Power finance Corporation

Repco Home Finance

Rural Electrification Corporation

Shriram Finance

Spandana Sphoorty



Abhijit Tibrewal - Research Analyst (Abhijit.Tibrewal@MotilalOswal.com)

Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal

(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |

Raghav Khemani

(Raghav.Khemani@MotilalOswal.com)

October 2020

are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research

Investors

Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Demand remains sluggish in mid-ticket mortgages



Disbursement momentum remained rather sluggish particularly in mid-ticket

home loans, while the affordable segment still continues to see reasonably

healthy demand. Delays in property registrations due to an issue in e-Khata in

Karnataka have improved but not been completely normalized.

NIMs are expected to remain largely stable for large HFCs, while they are

expected to moderate sequentially for affordable HFCs due to an ongoing rise in

CoF. Asset quality has not shown any signs of weakness and there is an

improvement bias. Credit costs are expected to remain benign for HFCs.

For LICHF, we expect credit costs at ~25bp (vs. -5bp in 3Q). Margins are likely to

remain largely stable QoQ. We expect LICHF to report ~6% YoY growth in loans.

We forecast HomeFirst to report ~14% YoY growth in disbursements, leading to

healthy AUM growth of ~31% YoY. We expect NIM to contract ~10bp QoQ for

Aavas and Homefirst due to the ongoing rise in portfolio CoB. Asset quality is

also expected to remain stable for HomeFirst, while we estimate a minor

improvement for Aavas.

We estimate PNBHF to deliver ~15% YoY growth in total loan book and ~18%

YoY growth in retail loans as of Mar’25. For PNBHF, we expect NIM to contract

5bp QoQ. Asset quality improvement and recoveries from the written-off pool in

both Retail/Corporate may result in provision write-backs (like in prior quarters).

For Five Star, we expect disbursements to grow ~8% YoY, translating into ~23%

YoY growth in AUM. NIMs are likely to contract ~55bp sequentially due to higher

leverage and a ~200bp cut in lending rates by the company since Nov’24. We

expect a minor deterioration in GS3, resulting in credit costs rising to ~80bp

(compared to ~70bp in 3QFY25).

Vehicle Finance – Collection trends not suggesting strong seasonality of 4Q



MMFS reported disbursements of ~INR155b in 4QFY25 (up ~1% YoY), leading to

~16% YoY growth in business assets. We expect credit costs for MMFS to be at

~1.7% in 4QFY25 (vs. 5bp in 3QFY25 aided by provision release). MMFS also

reported improvement of ~100bp QoQ in Stage 2+ Stage 3.



For CIFC and SHTF, we expect sequential growth in disbursements, which should

translate into ~26%/18% YoY growth in AUM for CIFC/SHTF as of Mar’25.



We estimate NIM expansion for vehicle financiers in FY26, driven by a decline in

CoB and a fixed-rate vehicle finance book. Asset quality is expected to remain

largely stable QoQ (except for some technical write-offs, if any) and has not

seen any meaningful improvement, which is generally seen in the seasonally

strong 4Q of the fiscal year. As a result, we expect credit costs in Vehicle Finance

will be significantly higher than they were in 4Qs of the previous fiscal years.

Gold Finance – Strong growth in gold loans with some NIM compression



We expect gold loan financiers to deliver healthy gold loan growth and decent

tonnage growth in 4QFY25. For MGFL, we expect the standalone entity to

deliver ~4% QoQ gold loan growth, but the drag from its MFI and CV businesses

would keep consol. loan growth muted during the quarter. We expect ~10%

QoQ gold loan growth for MUTH.

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs



We expect margins for gold financiers to contract by ~15bp during the quarter.

Asirvad MFI, subsidiary of MGFL, could exhibit further asset quality

deterioration and high credit costs (higher than 3Q).

Microfinance – Credit costs decline sequentially but will remain elevated;

collection efficiency improves in Feb-Mar’25



Disbursements were muted (and lower QoQ) for Fusion and Spandana, while we

expect CREDAG disbursements to have accelerated during the quarter. We

expect AUM to grow ~4% QoQ and remain flat YoY for CREDAG and decline

~13%/24% QoQ for Fusion/Spandana in 4QFY25.

Karnataka MFI ordinance had impacted collection efficiency in Feb’25, which

recovered in Mar’25 and will likely take another two months to get normalized.

For this quarter and the next two quarters, a significant proportion of the credit

costs will be contributed by write-offs of loans that had slipped over the last 6-9

months. Credit cost is expected to decline sequentially for all three NBFC-MFIs

in our coverage universe. However, it will remain elevated in 4Q and 1HFY26.

We estimate annualized credit costs of ~9%/~14%/34% for CREDAG/Fusion

/Spandana in this quarter.

While MFIs reported early green shoots and improved collection efficiency in

Jan-Mar’25, we expect normalization in the MFI sector only in 2HFY26.

Additionally, the impact (if any) on collections from the implementation of MFIN

Guardrails 2.0 from Apr’25 will be a critical factor to monitor.

Diversified Financiers: Readying for stronger growth in unsecured personal

and business loans; credit costs expected to moderate slightly



LTFH has reported ~19% YoY/3% QoQ growth in retail loans. Since the company

is not growing its wholesale segments (such as real estate and infrastructure),

we expect consolidated loan book to grow by ~3% QoQ in 4QFY25. We expect

credit costs to decline ~20bp to 2.6% (vs. 2.8% in 3QFY25).

BAF has reported ~26% YoY/5% QoQ growth in AUM. We estimate a ~5bp QoQ

contraction in NIM for BAF with credit costs at ~205bp (vs. 212bp QoQ).

Poonawalla posted AUM growth of 42% YoY/15% QoQ, with total AUM of

INR355b. We expect credit costs to decline 220bp QoQ to 2.5% (vs. 4.7% in 3Q).

For IIFL Finance, we expect the strong growth in gold loan AUM to sustain and

estimate gold loan book to increase to ~INR215b as of Mar’25 (vs. ~INR150b as

of Dec’24). While we expect a sequential decline in its MFI AUM, it would still

exhibit ~11% QoQ growth in its consolidated AUM. We estimate PAT of INR2.2b

in 4Q (vs. INR410m in 3Q).

Power Financiers: Loan growth weaker than earlier expectations; higher

standard provisions on certain discoms



Disbursements for power financiers could be subdued during the quarter (due

to slowdown in economic activity), which we expect to result in lower-than-

expected loan growth for both REC and PFC. Asset quality is expected to further

improve, aided by the complete resolution of KSK Mahanadi.

During the quarter, NCLT approved the resolution of KSK Mahanadi, which will

result in provision write-backs for PFC. REC will also see some provision write-

backs in 4Q from the resolution of this stressed exposure, but it had already

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs



taken part of this benefit in 3Q. We also expect higher standard asset provisions

on certain discoms, which saw rating downgrades earlier in 4Q.

For PFC, we expect disbursement growth of ~14% YoY, leading to loan book

growth of ~11% YoY. For REC, we expect disbursement growth of ~16% YoY,

which could potentially result in loan book growth of ~13% YoY/2% QoQ.

Exhibit 1:

Quarterly performance

CMP

Name

AAVAS Financiers

Bajaj Finance

Can Fin Homes

Chola. Inv & Fin.

CreditAccess

Five-Star Business

Fusion Finance

Home First Fin.

IIFL Finance

L&T Finance

LIC Housing Fin

M & M Financial

Manappuram Finance

MAS Financial

Muthoot Finance

PFC

PNB Housing

Poonawalla Fincorp

REC

Repco Home Fin

Shriram Finance

Spandana Sphoorty

NBFC

(INR) Rating

2,084

8,697

663

1,468

968

698

142

988

325

151

561

276

232

258

2,336

405

875

349

417

342

638

245

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Mar-25

2,628

98,355

3,506

31,034

9,085

5,483

2,898

1,706

12,442

22,555

20,520

19,730

15,882

2,149

29,277

46,350

7,009

6,965

52,061

1,831

57,847

2,307

4,51,620

NII (INR m)

Operating profit (INR m)

Net profit (INR m)

Variance Variance

Mar -25

YoY (%) QoQ (%)

10.9

3.7

2,030

11.7

4.4

1,588

11.3

8.5

22.7

4.8

81,554

27.2

4.5

45,201

18.2

5.0

7.0

1.7

2,935

8.0

0.8

2,230

6.7

5.1

31.8

7.5

21,787

33.8

2.4

12,268

15.9

12.9

3.1

5.3

6,786

-0.6

8.9

698

-82.4

18.8

1.6

3,947

18.7

1.6

2,763

17.0

0.9

-19.8

29.1

1,323

-54.5

104.3

-1,379

Loss

24.7

4.6

1,461

28.8

4.7

1,044

25.0

7.2

-24.4

0.7

8,309

5.3

40.2

2,227

-40.4

13.5

0.8

14,244

4.6

-3.6

6,371

15.0

1.8

-8.3

2.6

17,320

-9.0

-1.0

12,763

17.0

-10.9

8.9

3.2

12,806

9.2

4.8

5,725

-7.5

-36.4

6.3

-0.2

9,595

2.8

3.1

2,096

-62.8

-24.7

27.9

4.5

1,437

27.7

3.9

838

23.1

7.3

37.1

7.6

21,486

42.3

4.3

15,159

43.5

11.2

9.4

-1.3

54,652

16.7

6.0

43,751

5.8

5.3

12.5

1.5

6,085

7.4

5.0

5,033

14.6

4.1

23.8

13.4

4,517

10.3

21.1

1,824

-45.0

16.0

1.4

51,577

16.3

2.7

35,146

-12.5

-12.8

12.5

2.7

1,496

16.2

3.6

1,155

6.8

8.4

13.7

3.5

42,802

9.6

4.8

21,619

11.1

3.9

-40.2

-15.8

400

-84.9

-48.9

-4,142

Loss

13.5

3.3

3,68,550

14.8

4.6

2,13,977

-0.5

4.6

Exhibit 2:

Relative performance – three months (%)

104

101

Nifty Index

MOFSL Financials Index

Exhibit 3:

One-year relative performance (%)

120

113

106

Nifty Index

MOFSL Financials Index

Source: MOFSL, Company

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Exhibit 4:

EPS estimate changes for FY25/FY26/FY27

Company

AAVAS

BAF

CANF

CIFC

CREDAG

Five Star Business

FUSION

HomeFirst

IIFL Fin

LTFH

LICHF

MMFSL

MASFIN

Muthoot

MGFL

PNBHF

PFC

PFL

REC

REPCO

SHFL

SPANDANA

Old Estimates (INR)

FY25

FY26

FY27

73.5

88.9

108.8

270.9

343.7

435.6

64.0

68.8

78.9

50.2

66.8

88.0

34.3

89.5

125.8

36.6

41.6

48.6

-95.9

16.4

28.8

43.0

52.5

64.0

4.9

46.5

59.0

10.7

12.6

16.7

96.7

95.1

107.7

19.8

24.5

30.8

17.0

21.7

26.4

130.1

163.0

182.3

21.4

25.4

30.8

72.7

88.9

107.6

50.8

56.3

60.7

0.2

14.1

21.2

60.9

71.5

78.1

70.3

70.1

76.9

43.6

52.6

63.6

-130.8

11.9

47.0

New Estimates (INR)

FY25

FY26

FY27

73.2

87.5

105.5

270.3

336.9

426.2

63.5

68.5

78.6

50.2

64.6

85.0

34.8

75.6

114.6

36.6

41.6

48.6

-119.0

10.6

20.7

43.0

53.0

64.3

9.3

41.3

60.1

10.6

12.3

16.1

97.0

94.8

107.1

19.1

24.6

30.6

17.0

21.6

26.4

129.7

173.7

194.5

19.1

24.5

29.9

72.7

88.3

107.2

50.4

56.5

61.3

0.3

15.2

25.4

56.9

70.1

74.7

70.3

70.1

76.6

44.1

52.5

62.7

-142.4

5.4

28.4

FY25

-0.4

-0.2

-0.8

0.0

1.5

-0.1

0.1

90.0

-0.3

0.3

-3.9

-0.1

-0.3

-10.9

-0.0

-0.8

28.0

-6.5

0.0

1.3

Change (%)

FY26

-1.6

-2.0

-0.5

-3.2

-15.5

-0.1

-35.5

1.0

-11.3

-2.7

-0.3

0.4

-0.2

6.6

-3.6

-0.6

0.3

8.4

-2.0

0.1

-0.1

-54.6

FY27

-3.0

-2.2

-0.5

-3.4

-8.9

-0.1

-28.3

0.5

2.0

-4.0

-0.5

-0.6

-0.0

6.7

-2.7

-0.4

1.0

19.9

-4.3

-0.4

-1.4

-39.6

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

The tables below provide a snapshot of actual and estimated numbers for companies under the MOFSL coverage

universe. Highlighted columns indicate the quarter/financial year under review.

Aavas Financiers

CMP: INR2,084| TP: INR2,000 (-4%)



AUM/disbursements are likely to grow ~18%/6% YoY.

Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.4|-1.6|-3.0



Asset quality is expected to improve and credit costs are

likely to remain benign.



We expect NIM to contract ~10bp QoQ. Upfront assignment



Commentaries on loan growth, margin trajectory, and tech

income is estimated at ~INR570m.

transformation are the key monitorables.

Quarterly performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Profits

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Profit after tax

YoY Growth (%)

4,128

1,866

2,262

540

2,802

1,339

1,464

1,407

310

1,097

FY24

4,259

2,036

2,223

716

2,938

1,308

1,631

1,565

348

1,217

4,373

2,166

2,208

719

2,926

1,349

1,577

1,497

331

1,166

4,586

2,216

2,371

882

3,252

1,434

1,818

1,775

349

1,426

4,797

2,352

2,446

628

3,074

1,379

1,695

1,609

348

1,261

FY25E

4,906

2,489

2,418

898

3,316

1,368

1,948

1,900

421

1,479

5,121

2,587

2,533

859

3,392

1,447

1,945

1,884

420

1,464

5,377

2,749

2,628

962

3,590

1,560

2,030

1,977

390

1,588

FY24

17,347

8,284

9,063

2,856

11,919

5,430

6,489

15.6

245

6,244

1,338

4,907

14.1

FY25E

20,201

10,176

10,025

3,347

13,372

5,753

7,619

17.4

248

7,371

1,579

5,792

Bajaj Finance

CMP INR8,697| TP: INR9,000 (+3%)



BAF reported AUM growth of 26% YoY/5% QoQ.



Margin is likely to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~9.65%.

Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.2|-2.0|-2.2



Credit costs are expected to decline ~5bp QoQ to ~2.05%.



Guidance on NIM trajectory and credit costs are the key

monitorable.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Operating Income

Net Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions and Cont.

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

1,08,211

41,025

67,186

27.4

16,795

83,980

33.3

28,544

55,437

37.0

9,953

45,512

11,143

34,369

36.8

FY24

FY25E

1,17,340 1,25,233 1,32,301 1,40,492 1,49,870 1,57,682 1,65,773

45,371

48,680

52,171

56,839

61,493

63,856

67,418

71,970

76,553

80,130

83,653

88,377

93,826

98,355

30.0

29.3

28.1

24.5

22.8

22.6

22.7

16,477

16,436

17,019

20,531

21,084

22,901

23,944

88,447

92,989

97,149 1,04,185 1,09,461 1,16,727 1,22,299

26.3

25.1

25.0

24.1

23.8

25.5

25.9

30,100

31,567

33,028

34,709

36,390

38,670

40,744

58,347

61,422

64,121

69,475

73,071

78,057

81,554

30.0

26.6

25.3

25.2

27.1

27.2

10,771

12,484

13,100

16,847

19,091

20,433

20,997

47,578

48,955

51,051

52,654

54,015

57,624

60,557

12,070

12,566

12,806

13,534

13,877

14,572

15,357

35,508

36,390

38,245

39,120

40,137

43,052

45,201

27.7

22.4

21.1

13.8

13.0

18.3

18.2

FY24

4,83,066

1,87,247

2,95,819

28.7

66,759

3,62,578

25.7

1,23,252

2,39,326

27.9

46,307

1,93,096

48,584

1,44,512

25.5

FY25E

6,13,817

2,49,607

3,64,211

23.1

88,460

4,52,671

24.8

1,50,513

3,02,158

26.3

77,368

2,24,880

57,340

1,67,540

15.9

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Can Fin Homes

CMP INR663 | TP: INR725 (+9%)



Estimate loan book to grow ~9% YoY.



Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.8|-0.5|-0.5



Margin is expected to remain stable QoQ at 3.7%.



Commentaries on loan growth and outlook on NIM in a

declining rate environment are the key monitorables.

FY25E

9,553

6,155

3,398

7.3

3,472

7.6

594

13.3

2,878

6.5

137

2,741

626

2,115

33.8

Spreads are expected to contract ~10bp QoQ to ~3%.

Quarterly performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Profits

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Profit after tax

YoY Growth (%)

8,181

5,330

2,851

13.9

2,911

13.9

435

7.4

2,476

15.2

137

2,339

504

1,835

13.1

FY24

8,652

5,484

3,168

26.1

3,226

25.7

524

29.5

2,702

25.0

722

1,980

399

1,581

11.5

8,948

5,660

3,288

30.6

3,359

30.8

494

12.7

2,865

34.6

308

2,557

556

2,001

32.1

9,117

5,839

3,278

25.5

159

3,437

25.7

720

39.3

2,717

22.5

2,700

609

2,090

26.1

9,242

6,027

3,214

12.7

3,284

12.8

488

12.3

2,796

12.9

245

2,551

555

1,996

8.8

9,803

6,356

3,447

4.8

3,506

4.4

593

20.0

2,913

1.7

221

2,691

570

2,121

6.0

9,911

6,405

3,506

7.0

3,604

4.9

669

-7.0

2,935

8.0

2,866

636

2,230

6.7

FY24

34,899

22,314

12,585

24.0

348

12,933

24.1

2,173

23.1

10,760

24.3

1,185

9,575

2,068

7,507

20.8

FY25E

38,509

24,943

13,566

7.8

300

13,866

7.2

2,344

7.9

11,521

7.1

673

10,849

2,387

8,462

12.7

Cholamandalam Inv. & Fin.

CMP INR1,468 | | TP: INR1,690 (+15%)



Estimate business AUM to grow ~26% YoY.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -|-3.2|-3.4



Credit costs are expected to decline ~40bp QoQ to~1.2%.



Guidance on margins, loan growth, and credit costs in new

businesses will be closely monitored.

Margin is likely to expand ~10bp QoQ to 6.95%.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

38,492

20,071

18,421

24.3

2,845

21,265

29.7

7,867

13,399

26.4

3,723

9,675

2,415

7,260

28.3

FY24

42,205

22,052

20,153

35.4

3,514

23,667

39.4

9,461

14,206

37.1

3,998

10,208

2,583

7,625

35.3

46,099

24,390

21,709

35.8

4,088

25,797

40.8

10,640

15,157

40.4

3,588

11,569

2,807

8,762

28.0

49,341

25,793

23,548

33.4

5,580

29,127

41.4

12,850

16,278

27.9

1,908

14,369

3,788

10,581

24.1

53,695

27,957

25,738

39.7

4,595

30,333

42.6

11,834

18,499

38.1

5,814

12,685

3,263

9,422

29.8

FY25E

57,680

61,587

30,551

32,718

27,128

28,869

34.6

33.0

5,248

6,537

32,376

35,406

36.8

37.2

13,155

14,130

19,221

21,276

35.3

40.4

6,235

6,640

12,986

14,636

3,355

3,771

9,631

10,865

26.3

24.0

65,065

34,031

31,034

31.8

6,432

37,466

28.6

15,679

21,787

33.8

5,239

16,548

4,280

12,268

15.9

FY24

1,76,137

92,306

83,831

32.4

16,026

99,857

38.1

40,818

59,039

32.7

13,218

45,821

11,593

34,228

28.4

FY25

2,38,026

1,25,256

1,12,770

34.5

22,811

1,35,581

35.8

54,798

80,783

36.8

23,929

56,854

14,668

42,186

23.3

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

CreditAccess Grameen

CMP INR968 | | TP: INR1,150 (+19%)



Estimate GLP growth of ~7% QoQ.



Margin is likely to expand ~35bp QoQ to 14.2%.

CREDAG: Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

11,052

3,849

7,203

57.8

656

7,858

63.8

2,420

5,438

764

4,674

1,189

3,485

151.3

Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 1.5|-15.5|-8.9



Credit costs are projected to decline ~3pp QoQ to ~9.4%.



Guidance on credit costs and GLP growth to be monitored.

FY24

11,874 12,444

4,239

4,415

7,635

8,029

53.3

48.5

602

509

8,237

8,537

52.1

43.6

2,611

2,520

5,626

6,018

959

1,262

4,668

4,756

1,197

1,222

3,470

3,533

96.6

63.7

13,632

4,822

8,810

42.3

959

9,770

35.6

2,942

6,828

1,533

5,295

1,324

3,971

33.9

14,372

5,103

9,268

28.7

754

10,023

27.5

2,929

7,093

1,746

5,347

1,371

3,977

14.1

FY25

14,177 13,376

4,846

4,749

9,331

8,628

22.2

7.5

362

443

9,693

9,071

17.7

6.2

2,972

2,841

6,721

6,229

4,202

7,519

2,520 -1,289

659

-294

1,861

-995

-46.4 -128.2

14,059

4,974

9,085

3.1

610

9,694

-0.8

2,909

6,786

-1

5,934

852

154

698

-82.4

FY24

49,001

17,324

31,677

49.8

2,725

34,402

47.1

10,493

23,910

4,518

19,392

4,933

14,459

75.0

FY25E

55,984

19,672

36,312

14.6

2,169

38,481

11.9

11,642

26,839

19,400

7,440

1,890

5,550

-61.6

Five Star Business Finance

CMP INR698 | | TP: INR900 (+29%)



Estimate AUM growth of ~23% YoY.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.1|-0.1|-0.1



Credit costs are projected to rise ~10bp QoQ to ~0.8%.



Outlook on asset quality, guidance on loan growth, and

credit costs will be closely monitored.

Margin is likely to contract ~55bp QoQ to 19%.

FIVE STAR BUSINESS: Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

4,637

962

3,676

35.9

198

3,874

41.3

1,263

2,611

40.5

152

2,459

622

1,837

FY24

5,041

1,059

3,982

34.3

183

4,165

38.4

1,389

2,775

37.9

106

2,670

676

1,994

5,495

1,287

4,208

31.6

205

4,413

35.5

1,412

3,001

45.5

102

2,899

731

2,168

5,992

1,377

4,615

33.4

199

4,814

33.0

1,488

3,326

43.6

194

3,132

771

2,361

6,411

1,582

4,829

31.4

283

5,112

32.0

1,565

3,547

35.9

185

3,362

846

2,516

FY25E

6,793

1,631

5,161

29.6

266

5,427

30.3

1,627

3,800

36.9

218

3,582

903

2,679

7,112

1,714

5,399

28.3

198

5,597

26.8

1,713

3,884

29.4

233

3,651

913

2,739

7,285

1,802

5,483

18.8

285

5,769

19.8

1,822

3,947

18.7

280

3,667

904

2,763

FY24

21,166

4,685

16,481

33.7

785

17,266

36.7

5,553

11,713

42.0

554

11,160

2,800

8,359

38.5

FY25E

27,601

6,729

20,872

26.6

1,032

21,905

26.9

6,727

15,178

29.6

916

14,262

3,565

10,696

28.0

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Fusion Microfinance

CMP INR142 | | TP: INR155 (+9%)



Estimate AUM to decline ~20% YoY/13% QoQ.



Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -|-32.7|-7.7



Annualized credit costs are projected at ~14% in 4QFY25.



Guidance on credit costs, margins, and disbursement

trajectory will be closely monitored.

Margin is likely to expand ~4pp QoQ to ~13.1%.

Fusion: Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

4,790

1,835

2,955

58.7

738

3,693

70.0

1,339

2,354

95.8

759

1,595

390

1,205

FY24

4,968

1,910

3,058

26.1

745

3,803

28.9

1,385

2,418

29.1

762

1,656

399

1,257

5,400

2,015

3,386

34.2

732

4,118

38.0

1,515

2,603

41.6

938

1,665

401

1,265

5,761

2,149

3,612

30.6

991

4,603

32.8

1,696

2,907

31.5

1,190

1,717

390

1,327

6,213

2,234

3,979

34.6

854

4,833

30.9

1,855

2,978

26.5

3,485

-507

-151

-356

-130

FY25

6,261

2,274

3,987

30.4

776

4,764

25.3

1,925

2,838

17.4

6,941

-4,102

-1,052

-3,050

-343

4,382

2,137

2,245

-33.7

443

2,688

-34.7

2,041

648

-75.1

5,723

-5,075

2,118

-7,193

-669

4,777

1,879

2,898

-19.8

536

3,434

-25.4

2,111

1,323

-54.5

3,168

-1,844

-466

-1,379

-204

FY24

20,919

7,908

13,011

35.9

3,205

16,216

40.1

5,935

10,281

44.3

3,649

6,633

1,580

5,053

FY25E

21,632

8,524

13,109

0.8

2,610

15,719

-3.1

7,932

7,787

-24.3

19,316

-11,529

450

-11,979

-337.1

Home First Finance Company

CMP INR988| TP: INR1,280 (+30%)



Estimate a robust AUM growth of ~31% YoY/6% QoQ.



Margin is projected to contract ~10bp QoQ in 4QFY25.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Net Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions and Cont.

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

2,313

1,068

1,246

32.6

285

1,530

40.9

553

977

39.8

900

209

691

34.9

Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 0.1|1.0|0.5



Cost/income ratio to remain largely stable at ~36%.



Outlook on margins and credit costs will be key monitorables.

FY24

2,491

1,170

1,321

30.1

289

1,610

36.1

565

1,044

40.9

964

221

743

36.9

2,646

1,302

1,344

21.4

364

1,708

35.7

611

1,097

34.5

1,027

239

788

34.5

2,827

1,459

1,368

22.4

351

1,719

24.2

584

1,135

24.8

1,107

273

835

30.36

3,032

1,568

1,464

17.5

382

1,846

20.6

655

1,191

21.9

1,135

258

878

27.0

FY25E

3,322

1,756

1,566

18.6

421

1,987

23.4

726

1,261

20.7

1,204

281

922

24.1

3,558

1,926

1,631

21.4

517

2,148

25.8

752

1,396

27.2

1,298

324

974

23.5

3,741

2,036

1,706

24.7

572

2,278

32.5

816

1,461

28.8

1,386

343

1,044

25.02

FY24

10,277

4,999

5,278

26.3

1,289

6,567

33.7

2,313

4,254

34.3

254

4,000

942

3,057

33.9

FY25E

13,654

7,285

6,369

20.7

1,891

8,260

25.8

2,949

5,310

24.8

286

5,025

1,206

3,819

24.9

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

IIFL Finance

CMP INR325 | TP: INR415 (+28%)



Estimate consol. AUM growth of ~1% YoY to INR800b.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 90.0|-11.3|2.0



Cost ratios are expected to decline to ~48% (PQ: 56%).



Outlook on the gold loan business, loan growth, and margins will

be key monitorable.

Credit costs are likely to decline ~70bp QoQ to ~3.5%.

IIFL Finance (Consolidated): Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

FY24

Interest Income

21,989

23,576

Interest Expenses

8,878

9,321

Net Interest Income

13,111

14,255

YoY Growth (%)

48.9

44.7

Other Income

1,306

1,878

Total Income

14,417

16,134

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

6,332

6,772

Operating Profit

8,085

9,361

YoY Growth (%)

18.4

29.0

Provisions & Loan Losses

1,901

2,526

Profit before Tax

6,184

6,835

Exceptional items

Tax Provisions

1,455

1,580

PAT (Pre NCI)

4,729

5,255

NCI

475

513

PAT (Post NCI)

4,254

4,743

YoY Growth (%)

25,630

9,885

15,745

44.7

1,120

16,865

7,272

9,593

24.9

2,430

7,163

1,711

5,452

548

4,904

27,200

10,744

16,456

38.9

-873

15,584

7,691

7,893

-1.6

2,356

5,537

1,231

4,306

572

3,734

-10

24,721

10,340

14,381

9.7

-43

14,338

-1

7,461

6,877

-14.9

2,516

4,362

980

3,382

501

2,881

-32

FY25E

23,181

22,308

9,788

9,957

13,394

12,352

-6.0

-21.6

2,467

1,051

15,861

13,402

-2

-21

7,329

7,478

8,532

5,925

-8.9

-38.2

4,063

4,914

4,468

1,011

-5,865

-466

193

-931

818

646

410

-1,577

408

-133

-92

23,363

10,921

12,442

-24.4

3,388

15,830

7,520

8,309

5.3

4,621

3,688

1,018

2,670

443

2,227

-40

FY24

98,386

38,829

59,557

43.6

3,342

62,899

20.4

28,067

34,832

16.9

9,113

25,719

5,977

19,742

2,107

17,635

FY25E

93,573

41,005

52,568

-11.7

6,863

59,431

-5.5

29,788

29,643

-14.9

16,114

7,664

1,725

5,939

2,000

3,939

-78

L&T Finance

CMP INR151| TP: INR190 (+26%)



Expect consolidated loan book growth of 3% QoQ.



Anticipate credit costs to decline to ~2.6% (annualized) in

4QFY25 (vs. ~2.8% in 3QFY25).

Quarterly performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

Change YoY (%)

Other Operating Income

Net Operating Income

Change YoY (%)

Other income

Total Income

Change YoY (%)

Operating Expenses

Change YoY (%)

Operating Profits

Change YoY (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Profit after tax

Change YoY (%)

31,165

13,638

17,527

14.3

1,068

18,596

11.7

1,535

20,130

11.1

7,782

18.3

12,348

6.9

5,212

7,136

1,831

5,309

103

FY24

31,685 33,063

13,249 13,534

18,436 19,529

11.9

7.2

453

2,277

18,889 21,805

7.5

12.9

2,682

473

21,572 22,278

15.0

11.9

8,598

8,896

25.2

19.9

12,974 13,382

9.1

7.2

5,000

5,142

7,974

8,240

2,032

1,847

5,951

6,402



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.3|-2.7 |-4.0



NIM is expected to contract ~15bp QoQ to ~10.5%.

Outlook on the MFI business is the key monitorable.

33,226

13,351

19,875

12.6

3,492

23,367

31.9

23,422

18.7

9,803

24.6

13,619

7.3

6,679

6,940

1,410

5,539

34,526

13,514

21,012

19.9

3,318

24,330

30.8

24,332

20.9

9,656

24.1

14,676

18.9

5,453

9,223

2,370

6,855

FY25E

36,544 38,064

14,763 15,692

21,781 22,371

18.1

14.6

3,649

2,912

25,431 25,283

34.6

16.0

25,477 25,359

18.1

13.8

9,578 10,578

11.4

18.9

15,899 14,781

22.5

10.5

6,504

6,542

9,396

8,239

2,429

1,983

6,967

6,257

-2

FY24

FY25E

38,411 1,29,139 1,47,545

15,856

53,772

59,826

22,555

75,367

87,720

13.5

11.4

16.4

2,959

6,667

12,838

25,514

82,034 1,00,558

9.2

15.1

22.6

113

4,745

237

25,627

86,779 1,00,795

9.4

13.4

16.2

11,383

35,079

41,195

16.1

22.1

17.4

14,244

51,701

59,600

4.6

6.3

15.3

6,165

21,410

24,664

8,079

30,290

34,936

1,708

7,119

8,490

6,371

23,171

26,447

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

LIC Housing Finance

CMP INR561 | TP: INR670 (+19%)



Expect loan growth of ~7% YoY with a fairly stable mix.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 0.3|-0.3|-0.5



Yields and margins are expected to remain largely stable on

a sequential basis.



Commentaries on mortgage demand and guidance on

margins and loan growth are the key monitorables.

Estimate annualized credit costs of ~25bp in 4QFY25

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Fees and other income

Net Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions and Cont.

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

67,037

44,942

22,094

37.2

429

22,523

36.4

2,425

20,098

38.8

3,608

16,490

3,253

13,237

FY24

67,066

46,000

21,066

81.2

521

21,587

79.1

2,595

18,993

101.1

4,192

14,801

2,920

11,881

290

67,437

46,465

20,972

30.6

488

21,460

30.6

2,615

18,845

39.0

4,358

14,487

2,858

11,629

142

68,875

46,499

22,376

12.4

493

22,869

12.8

3,829

19,041

8.7

4,279

14,762

3,854

10,908

-8

67,391

47,501

19,891

-10.0

446

20,337

-9.7

2,621

17,715

-11.9

1,431

16,285

3,282

13,002

-2

FY25E

68,534

69,516

48,796

49,515

19,739

20,001

-6.3

-4.6

784

1,057

20,522

21,059

-4.9

-1.9

3,105

3,564

17,417

17,495

-8.3

-7.2

773

-440

16,644

17,934

3,355

3,615

13,289

14,320

71,077

50,557

20,520

-8.3

742

21,262

-7.0

3,941

17,320

-9.0

1,716

15,604

2,841

12,763

FY24

2,70,416

1,83,907

86,509

36.7

1,931

88,440

36.3

11,463

76,976

40.0

16,437

60,539

12,885

47,654

FY25E

2,76,519

1,96,369

80,150

-7.4

3,024

83,174

-6.0

13,232

69,942

-9.1

3,481

66,461

13,093

53,368

Mahindra Financial Services

Buy

CMP INR276| TP: INR340 (+23%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -3.9|0.4|-0.6



MMFS reported disbursements of ~INR155b, leading to AUM



Estimate credit costs of ~1.7% in 4QFY25.

of ~INR1.19t (up 16% YoY/ ~4% QoQ).



Commentaries on margins, credit costs, and loan growth are



We expect margins to remain stable QoQ.

the key monitorables.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest income

Interest Expenses

NII

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Net Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

30,349

14,505

15,844

5.3

905

16,750

6.9

6,750

10,000

5.7

5,264

4,735

1,209

3,527

58.2

FY24

31,535

15,665

15,870

9.6

870

16,740

8.7

7,312

9,428

9.2

6,266

3,163

811

2,352

-47.5

33,733

16,750

16,983

9.4

1,172

18,155

10.1

7,530

10,625

6.4

3,284

7,341

1,813

5,528

-12.1

35,471

17,351

18,121

13.2

1,590

19,710

14.4

7,980

11,730

24.2

3,415

8,315

2,126

6,190

-9.5

36,122

18,286

17,836

12.6

1,480

19,316

15.3

7,970

11,345

13.5

4,482

6,864

1,734

5,130

45.5

FY25E

37,448

39,572

19,343

20,459

18,106

19,113

14.1

12.5

1,802

1,872

19,908

20,985

18.9

15.6

7,947

8,768

11,961

12,217

26.9

15.0

7,035

4,927

12,126

1,232

3,131

3,695

8,995

57.1

62.7

40,955

21,225

19,730

8.9

2,343

22,074

12.0

9,268

12,806

9.2

5,119

7,686

1,962

5,725

-7.5

FY24

1,31,088

64,269

66,818

9.4

4,537

71,355

10.1

29,572

41,783

11.4

18,228

23,555

5,959

17,596

-11.3

FY25E

1,54,097

79,312

74,785

11.9

7,498

82,283

15.3

33,953

48,329

15.7

16,727

31,602

8,059

23,544

33.8

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Manappuram Finance

Neutral

CMP INR232 | TP: INR240 (+3%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -10.9|-3.6|-2.7



Expect gold AUM/consolidated AUM to grow ~4%/1% on a



Expect credit costs to increase ~115bp QoQ to ~6.1%.

sequential basis.



Expect margin to expand ~15bp QoQ and spreads to decline



Commentaries on gold loan growth and asset quality in the

~15bp in the consolidated loan book.

MFI and PL segments are the key monitorables.

MGFL - Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)

FY24

Y/E March

Interest Income

19,363

20,438

22,011

Interest Expenses

6,484

6,894

7,487

Net Interest Income

12,879

13,543

14,524

YoY Growth (%)

34.6

25.5

33.0

Other income

1,209

1,303

1,256

Net Income

14,088

14,846

15,780

Operating Expenses

6,068

6,182

6,419

Operating Profits

8,020

8,664

9,361

YoY Growth (%)

57.5

36.8

58.1

Provisions

1,212

1,197

1,496

PBT

6,808

7,467

7,864

Tax Provisions

1,828

1,861

2,111

PAT

4,980

5,607

5,753

YoY Growth (%)

22,734

7,792

14,943

32.83

888

15,831

6,497

9,333

52.0

1,878

7,455

1,820

5,635

23,861

8,483

15,378

19.4

1,259

16,636

6,823

9,814

22.4

2,286

7,528

1,963

5,565

FY25E

25,411

9,057

16,354

20.8

961

17,314

6,984

10,331

19.2

2,604

7,727

2,006

5,721

25,163

9,253

15,909

9.5

464

16,373

7,066

9,307

-0.6

5,546

3,761

976

2,785

-52

24,698

8,816

15,882

6.29

925

16,807

7,212

9,595

2.8

6,764

2,832

735

2,096

-63

FY24

84,546

28,657

55,889

31.4

4,655

60,544

25,165

35,379

50.7

5,783

29,595

7,621

21,974

FY25E

99,132

35,610

63,523

13.7

3,608

67,131

28,084

39,047

10.4

17,200

21,847

5,680

16,167

-26

MAS Financial

Buy

CMP INR258 | TP: INR325 (+26%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.1|-0.2|-



Standalone AUM is likely to grow ~5% QoQ/~21% YoY.



Margin is expected to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~7.2%.



Commentary on branch expansions and increase in the direct



We expect credit costs to decline ~10bp to ~1.1%.

business will be the key monitorables.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Revenue from Operations

Interest Income

Gain on assignments

Other operating Income

Interest expenses

Total income

Growth Y-o-Y (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profits

Growth Y-o-Y (%)

Provisions

Profit before tax

Growth Y-o-Y (%)

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

Growth Y-o-Y (%)

2,801

2,362

242

196

1,428

1,373

427

946

188

758

186

573

FY24

2,982

2,490

272

219

1,461

1,520

484

1,036

236

800

200

600

3,206

2,651

319

236

1,638

1,569

467

1,102

257

845

221

624

3,295

2,757

336

202

1,615

1,680

555

1,125

214

911

230

681

3,465

2,952

304

210

1,714

1,751

567

1,183

239

944

240

704

FY25E

3,670

3,078

375

217

1,754

1,916

632

1,284

263

1,021

255

766

3,901

3,332

356

213

1,845

2,056

673

1,383

332

1,051

270

781

4,142

3,500

381

262

1,993

2,149

712

1,437

318

1,119

282

838

FY24

12,246

10,223

1,170

853

6,142

6,104

1,894

4,210

896

3,314

837

2,478

FY25E

15,178

12,862

1,415

901

7,307

7,871

2,583

5,287

1,152

4,135

1,046

3,089

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Muthoot Finance

CMP INR 2,336| TP: INR2,500 (+7%)



Estimate gold AUM growth of ~40% YoY.



Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.3|6.6|6.7



We expect credit costs of ~70bp in 4QFY25 as compared to

~90bp in 3QFY25.



Commentaries on gold loan growth and margin guidance are

the key monitorables.

Margin is likely to contract 15bp to ~11.7%.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Other operating income

Total Operating income

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Interest Expenses

Net Income

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

29,577

410

29,987

19.8

276

30,263

20.6

10,638

19,625

5,620

14,006

36.8

860

13,145

3,394

9,751

21.6

FY24

30,147 31,176

450

501

30,597 31,677

22.5

19.1

139

30,736 31,757

22.8

19.1

11,563 12,119

19,173 19,638

5,751

5,696

13,422 13,942

16.9

10.4

120

137

13,302 13,805

3,392

3,532

9,910 10,273

14.3

13.9

33,575

514

34,089

19.5

34,184

19.4

12,228

21,956

6,861

15,095

16.9

860

14,236

3,673

10,563

17.0

36,560

478

37,038

23.5

37,101

22.6

13,511

23,590

6,437

17,153

22.5

2,236

14,917

4,130

10,787

10.6

FY25E

40,685 43,690

489

545

41,174 44,235

34.6

39.6

41,262 44,312

34.2

39.5

15,505 16,476

25,758 27,836

6,608

7,243

19,150 20,593

42.7

47.7

2,070

2,088

17,080 18,505

4,568

4,874

12,511 13,631

26.3

32.7

FY24

FY25E

47,706 1,24,476 1,68,641

606

1,874

2,118

48,312 1,26,350 1,70,759

41.7

20.2

35.1

590

325

48,409 1,26,940 1,71,084

41.6

20.4

34.8

18,429

46,548

63,921

29,980

80,393 1,07,163

8,493

23,927

28,781

21,486

56,466

78,382

42.3

19.5

38.8

1,789

1,978

8,182

19,698

54,488

70,200

4,539

13,991

18,112

15,159

40,497

52,088

43.5

16.6

28.6

PNB Housing Finance

Buy

CMP INR875 | TP: INR1,150 (31%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27|: -|-0.6|-0.4



Total loan growth of ~15% YoY and Retail Loan growth of



NIM is expected to contract ~5bp QoQ.

~18% YoY.



Expect provision write-backs from recoveries in both Retail



Commentaries on the asset quality of the retail loan book,

and Corporate written-off pools.

NIM, and credit costs are the key monitorables.

Quarterly performance

16,669

10,475

6,194

68.1

408

6,602

37.3

1,530

26.0

5,072

41.1

606

4,467

994

3,473

47.8

FY24

17,029

10,573

6,456

1.9

765

7,221

0.2

1,702

24.4

5,519

-5.4

448

5,071

1,241

3,830

45.8

16,795

10,866

5,929

-17.3

765

6,694

-16.3

1,700

34.7

4,994

-25.9

591

4,403

1,019

3,384

25.8

16,929

10,697

6,232

7.23

1,211

7,443

18.2

1,778

21.1

5,665

17.3

5,598

1,206

4,393

57.3

17,391

10,969

6,421

3.7

930

7,352

11.3

1,929

26.1

5,422

6.9

-120

5,542

1,214

4,328

24.6

FY25E

17,803

18,484

11,185

11,579

6,618

6,905

2.5

16.5

994

947

7,612

7,852

5.4

17.3

2,020

2,057

18.7

21.0

5,591

5,795

1.3

16.0

-456

-361

6,047

6,157

1,351

1,324

4,697

4,833

22.6

42.8

19,313

12,304

7,009

12.47

1,234

8,242

10.7

2,157

21.3

6,085

7.4

-388

6,473

1,440

5,033

14.6

FY24

67,422

42,611

24,811

7.8

3,149

27,960

6.3

6,710

26.3

21,250

1.2

1,711

19,539

4,459

15,080

44.2

FY25E

72,991

46,037

26,953

8.6

4,104

31,057

11.1

8,164

21.7

22,894

7.7

-1,325

24,219

5,328

18,891

25.3

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Profits

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Profit after tax

YoY Growth (%)

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Power Finance Corporation

Buy

CMP INR405 | TP: INR505 (+25%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -0.8|0.3|1.0



Expect AUM/Disbursement growth of ~14%/11% YoY.



Expect margin to contract ~10bp to ~3.7%.



Expect credit costs to remain benign, aided by stressed asset



Commentaries on growth in loan book, margins, and asset

resolutions.

quality/credit costs are the key monitorables.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Particulars

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Gr %

Other Income

Net Operational Income

YoY Gr %

Exchange gain/(loss)

Total Net Income

YoY Gr %

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Gr %

Provisions

PBT

Tax

Tax Rate %

PAT

YoY Gr %

FY24

1,01,241

66,207

35,034

1.0

-2,111

32,923

-8.9

4,827

37,750

32.6

1,018

36,732

35.5

36,710

6,641

18.1

30,069

42.5

1,06,921

69,631

37,289

-3.1

11,904

49,193

7.6

-1,188

48,005

22.5

1,143

46,863

22.6

-989

47,852

9,377

19.6

38,474

28.3

1,13,313

71,735

41,578

16.4

5,875

47,452

20.6

-2,231

45,221

23.2

1,100

44,121

24.1

2,626

41,495

7,723

18.6

33,772

12.4

1,14,937

72,564

42,373

21.9

7,165

49,538

14.3

723

50,261

24.3

3,431

46,830

23.7

-3,370

50,200

8,845

17.6

41,355

18.4

1,18,270

74,990

43,280

23.5

3,160

46,440

41.1

589

47,029

24.6

1,016

46,013

25.3

620

45,393

8,214

18.1

37,179

23.6

FY25E

1,19,090

75,007

44,083

18.2

14,655

58,738

19.4

-3,100

55,639

15.9

2,355

53,284

13.7

-1,241

54,525

10,821

19.8

43,704

13.6

1,24,172

77,231

46,942

12.9

5,971

52,913

11.5

457

53,370

18.0

1,832

51,538

16.8

745

50,793

9,244

18.2

41,549

23.0

1,26,322

79,972

46,350

9.4

10,814

57,164

15.4

-346

56,818

13.0

2,166

54,652

16.7

955

53,697

9,946

18.5

43,751

5.8

FY24

4,36,411

2,80,138

1,56,274

8.8

22,832

1,79,106

8.9

2,131

1,81,237

25.2

6,691

1,74,545

25.8

-1,712

1,76,257

32,587

18.5

1,43,670

23.5

FY25E

4,87,854

3,07,199

1,80,655

15.6

34,601

2,15,256

20.2

-2,400

2,12,856

17.4

7,369

2,05,487

17.7

1,079

2,04,408

38,224

18.7

1,66,184

15.3

Poonawalla Fincorp

CMP INR349 | TP: INR425 (+22%)



PFL reported AUM growth of ~42% YoY/15% QoQ.



Expect cost ratios to decline to ~42% in 4QFY25 (PQ: ~45%

and PY: ~36%).

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Exceptional items

Tax Provisions

PAT (excl. exceptional)

PAT (incl. exceptional)

YoY Growth (%)

6,560

2,348

4,212

77.8

563

4,775

70.3

1,834

2,941

185.0

266

2,676

674

2,002

86.0

Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 28.0|8.4|19.9



Expect credit costs to decline ~220bp QoQ to 2.5%.



Commentaries on growth in personal loans, margin, and

asset quality/credit costs are the key monitorables.

FY25E

9,107 9,991

3,516 3,850

5,592 6,141

17.8

25.1

858

581

6,449 6,722

22.0

22.2

3,657 2,991

2,792 3,731

-16.8

6.5

9,096 3,479

-6,305

252

-1,594

-4,710

187

-4,710

187

-92.9

FY24

6,901 7,144

2,155 2,237

4,746 4,907

73.3

62.9

539

594

5,285 5,501

57.1

52.8

1,929 1,998

3,356 3,502

167.0 124.8

281

-65

3,075 3,568

6,560

775

916

2,300 2,651

8,861 2,651

76.7

76.3

8,436

2,811

5,625

48.1

782

6,407

57.0

2,313

4,094

103.09

239

3,855

538

3,317

83.6

8,962

3,201

5,761

36.8

997

6,758

35.1

2,436

4,321

46.9

425

3,897

980

2,916

45.7

11,507

4,541

6,965

23.8

779

7,744

20.9

3,227

4,517

10.34

2,079

2,438

614

1,824

-45.0

FY24

29,061

9,503

19,558

58.9

2,478

22,036

54.7

8,074

13,962

128.8

720

13,242

6,560

2,907

10,335

16,896

73.9

FY25E

39,567

15,109

24,458

25.1

3,214

27,672

25.6

12,312

15,361

10.0

15,079

282

217

-97.9

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Rural Electrification Corporation

Buy

CMP INR417 | TP: INR530 (27%)

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -6.5|-2.0|-4.3



Disbursements/AUM expected to grow ~16%/13% YoY.



Margin is likely to contract ~5bp QoQ to ~3.6%.



Expect credit costs to remain benign, aided by stress assets’



Commentaries around margins and guidance on

resolutions.

disbursements/AUM growth are the key monitorables.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Gr (%)

Other Operational Income

Net Operational Income

YoY Gr (%)

Other Income

Total Net Income

YoY Gr (%)

Operating Expenses

YoY Gr (%)

% to Income

Operating Profit

YoY Gr %

Provisions

PBT

YoY Gr (%)

Tax

Tax Rate (%)

PAT

YoY Gr (%)

1,06,895

70,498

36,397

-8.9

195

36,592

-9.7

2,553

39,144

-4.3

1,445

-77.7

3.7

37,700

9.5

580

37,120

26.3

7,512

20.2

29,607

21.0

FY24

1,13,930 1,19,440

73,500

76,533

40,430

42,907

2.1

17.7

546

531

40,976

43,438

2.6

17.2

1,425

42,401

43,467

0.5

21.5

1,938

1,766

-65.8

-43.3

4.6

4.1

40,463

41,701

10.8

27.7

-7,604

559

48,067

41,143

40.2

15.6

10,338

8,449

21.5

20.5

37,729

32,693

38.3

13.6

1,23,836

78,961

44,875

28.3

924

45,799

26.1

1,674

47,473

30.9

3,114

130.6

6.6

44,359

27.0

-7,119

51,478

35.1

11,315

22.0

40,163

33.8

1,26,904

80,212

46,692

28.3

469

47,161

28.9

2,998

50,159

28.1

2,175

50.6

4.3

47,984

27.3

4,726

43,258

16.5

8,834

17.6

34,425

16.3

FY25E

1,34,744 1,39,704 1,42,318

85,065

88,373

90,256

49,678

51,331

52,061

22.9

19.6

16.0

483

757

2,328

50,161

52,088

54,390

22.4

19.9

18.8

731

1,266

310

50,892

53,354

54,700

20.0

22.7

15.2

1,936

3,147

3,123

-0.1

78.2

0.3

3.8

5.9

5.7

48,955

50,206

51,577

21.0

20.4

16.3

-1,441

-890

7,040

50,396

51,097

44,537

4.8

24.2

-13.5

10,342

10,806

9,391

20.5

21.1

40,055

40,291

35,146

6.2

23.2

-12.5

FY24

4,64,101

2,99,493

1,64,608

7,198

1,70,141

679

1,70,819

6,597

1,64,223

(13,584)

1,77,806

37,614

1,40,192

26.8

FY25E

5,43,669

3,43,907

1,99,762

8,494

2,05,956

848

2,06,804

8,082

1,98,722

9,434

1,89,289

39,372

1,49,917

6.9

Repco Home Finance

CMP INR342 | TP: INR380 (11%)



Disbursements/AUM expected to grow ~5%/7% YoY.



Expect asset quality to continue to improve, resulting in

provision write-backs in the quarter.

Quarterly performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Profits

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Profit after tax

YoY Growth (%)

3,572

2,026

1,546

16.5

1,639

15.7

392

15.7

1,247

15.7

1,198

307

891

43.5

FY24

3,770

2,075

1,695

23.6

1,765

18.9

426

24.4

1,338

17.3

1,322

341

981

37.9

Neutral

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 0|0.1|-0.4



Margins are likely to expand ~10bp QoQ to ~5.7%.



Commentaries around asset quality and guidance on

disbursements/AUM growth are the key monitorables.

FY25E

4,051

2,396

1,656

-2.3

229

1,884

6.8

517

21.2

1,367

2.2

-160

1,528

403

1,125

14.7

3,787

2,153

1,635

17.8

145

1,779

18.7

410

2.9

1,370

24.5

1,341

346

994

23.1

3,831

2,203

1,628

10.5

141

1,769

11.9

483

27.58

1,287

6.9

-100

1,387

306

1,081

31.6

4,007

2,330

1,677

8.5

155

1,833

11.8

452

15.4

1,380

10.7

1,366

312

1,054

18.4

4,258

2,475

1,783

9.0

196

1,978

11.2

535

30.5

1,443

5.4

1,440

375

1,066

7.2

4,303

2,472

1,831

12.5

218

2,050

15.8

554

14.76

1,496

16.2

-37

1,532

378

1,155

6.8

FY24

14,960

8,456

6,504

17.0

448

6,952

16.2

1,710

17.3

5,242

15.9

-5

5,247

1,300

3,947

33.3

FY25E

16,619

9,673

6,947

6.8

798

7,744

11.4

2,057

20.3

5,687

8.5

-179

5,866

1,467

4,400

11.5

April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

Shriram Finance

CMP INR638| TP: INR775 (+21%)



Estimate disbursements of ~INR453b, leading to AUM of

~INR2.65t (up 18% YoY/ ~4% QoQ).



Margin is expected to contract ~10bp QoQ to 8.9%.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: 1.3|-0.1|-1.4



Credit cost is likely to remain stable QoQ at 2.2%.

Commentaries on loan growth in CV and on asset quality in

2W and PL segments are the key monitorables.

Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Exceptional gain (Post tax)

PAT (including exceptional gains/loss)

76,880

34,875

42,004

20.0

3,167

45,171

22.0

13,908

31,262

17.3

8,786

22,476

5,722

16,754

30.8

FY24

82,166

36,219

45,947

21.6

3,479

49,426

17.9

14,618

34,808

16.3

11,286

23,523

6,014

17,508

12.6

86,179

37,069

49,110

17.1

3,094

52,204

16.2

15,311

36,893

11.7

12,497

24,396

6,213

18,183

2.3

90,773

39,898

50,874

21.7

4,206

55,080

21.7

16,024

39,056

26.8

12,615

26,441

6,983

19,459

48.7

93,628

41,289

52,339

24.6

2,343

54,682

21.1

16,140

38,541

23.3

11,876

26,666

6,860

19,806

18.2

FY25E

98,145 1,03,408

43,504

47,513

54,641

55,896

18.9

13.8

2,805

3,646

57,446

59,542

16.2

14.1

17,597

18,692

39,848

40,850

14.5

10.7

12,350

13,258

27,498

27,592

6,803

6,788

20,696

20,804

18.2

14.4

14,894

35,698

1,07,774

49,928

57,847

13.7

4,264

62,111

12.8

19,309

42,802

9.6

13,991

28,811

7,191

21,619

11.1

FY24

3,35,997

1,48,061

1,87,935

17.0

13,980

2,01,915

17.0

59,895

1,42,020

15.1

45,183

96,836

24,932

71,905

20.3

FY25E

4,02,955

1,82,233

2,20,722

17.4

13,058

2,33,780

15.8

71,739

1,62,041

14.1

51,475

1,10,566

27,642

82,925

15.3

Spandana Sphoorty

CMP INR245 | TP: INR285 (+16%)



Estimate disbursements of ~INR4.8b, leading to AUM of

~INR68b (AUM declined ~43% YoY/24% QoQ).



Margin is likely to expand ~20bp QoQ to ~13.3%.



Buy

EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26|27: -|-54.6|-39.6



Annualized credit costs to increase to ~34% (PQ: ~32%).

Guidance on credit costs, margins, and AUM growth to be

closely monitored.

SPANDANA: Quarterly Performance

Y/E March

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Interest Income

YoY Growth (%)

Other Income

Total Income

YoY Growth (%)

Operating Expenses

Operating Profit

YoY Growth (%)

Provisions & Loan Losses

Profit before Tax

Tax Provisions

Net Profit

YoY Growth (%)

4,929

1,995

2,934

99.3

344

3,277

102.2

1,386

1,891

273.5

286

1,605

411

1,195

-154

FY24

5,436

2,277

3,159

70.6

966

4,125

88.5

1,549

2,576

134.1

901

1,675

423

1,252

127

5,663

2,502

3,161

45.7

905

4,067

59.9

1,662

2,405

71.0

701

1,703

429

1,274

6,352

2,493

3,859

42.8

744

4,603

19.9

1,943

2,660

2.0

938

1,722

435

1,287

6,935

2,594

4,342

48.0

435

4,776

45.7

1,908

2,869

51.7

2,118

751

193

557

-53

FY25

6,071

2,584

3,487

10.4

994

4,481

8.6

2,203

2,278

-11.6

5,164

-2,886

-723

-2,163

-273

5,029

2,290

2,739

-13.4

697

3,436

-15.5

2,651

784

-67.4

6,661

-5,876

-1,474

-4,402

-446

4,042

1,735

2,307

-40.2

790

3,097

-32.7

2,697

400

-84.9

5,940

-5,540

-1,398

-4,142

-422

FY24

22,381

9,268

13,113

60.0

2,959

16,072

57.7

6,540

9,532

69.6

2,826

6,706

1,699

5,007

3,940

FY25E

22,078

9,203

12,875

-1.8

2,916

15,790

-1.8

9,459

6,331

-33.6

19,883

-13,552

-3,401

-10,150

-303

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April 2025

March 2025 Results Preview | Sector: Financials - NBFCs

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Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.

Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email

Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.

Grievance Redressal Cell:

Contact Person

Ms. Hemangi Date

Ms. Kumud Upadhyay

Mr. Ajay Menon

Contact No.

022 40548000 / 022 67490600

022 40548082

022 40548083

Email ID

query@motilaloswal.com

servicehead@motilaloswal.com

am@motilaloswal.com

Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:

ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to

grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.

April 2025