Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | 8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Our latest O&G updates

Marketing sub-sector favored; turning bullish on CGDs







In Feb’25, we noted that valuations for O&G stocks appeared inexpensive (Pockets

value re-emerging)

and highlighted HPCL, BPCL, GAIL and MAHGL as our top picks. In

the last two-and-half months, HPCL/BPCL have delivered a return of 26%/25%, aided

by super-normal marketing profitability. GAIL has had a strong run (+15%) on the back

of tariff-related announcements, while APM de-allocation concerns have weighed on

MAHGL.

Marketing remains preferred sub-sector; turning positive on CGDs for first time since

Nov’23: Our positive stance on retail marketing is driven by: 1) our negative bias for

crude oil prices (FY26E: USD65/bbl), 2) we do not see sharp cuts in retail prices of

MS/HSD. These factors, along with healthy ~4% marketing volume CAGR, should drive

robust marketing profitability. We are now turning positive on the city gas distribution

(CGD) sector for the first time since Nov’23 (link) as we see potential for margin

expansion. In the last 18 months, when CGD was not our preferred sub-sector,

IGL/MAHGL/GUJGA delivered a return of +2%/+30%/+3%.

Refining performance to remain lackluster, in our view: We have a cautious stance on

refining over FY26-1HFY28 amid strong net refinery capacity additions of 0.6mb/0.9mb

per day over CY25/CY26 (substantial portion of this is from India). Even after assuming

a six-month delay in the commissioning of IOCL’s ~347kb/d refinery expansions, net

refinery capacity additions globally remain heavy at ~0.4mb/0.95mb per day in CY25/

CY26. Moreover, IEA recently downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for

CY25 by 300mb/d.

Upstream remains our relatively less preferred sector despite cheap valuations: We

forecast Brent to average USD65/bbl in FY26/FY27 but believe downside risks remain

to both oil and gas realizations. Every USD1/bbl decline in Brent prices leads to a ~2%

decline in FY26E/FY27E PAT for both ONGC SA and OINL SA. While valuations look

cheap at 0.8x/1.1x FY27E PB for ONGC SA/OINL SA, we remain on the sidelines and

prefer marketing/CGD. Our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates are 15%/11% below consensus

for ONGC SA and 12%/15% below consensus for OINL SA.

Our top picks: HPCL & MAHGL: At 1.3x FY27E consol. P/B, HPCL remains our preferred

pick among OMCs, given its leverage toward marketing. Falling raw material costs,

coupled with a robust CNG volume growth outlook, should drive earnings for CGDs.

MAHGL remains our preferred pick among CGDs.

Marketing remains our preferred sub-sector within O&G

Weak crude price outlook beneficial for marketing margins:

MS/HSD marketing

margins have remained robust over the past 10 months and averaging

INR13.6/12.3 per lit in 4QFY25. While Brent crude prices averaged ~USD75.8/

67.7 per bbl in 4QFY25/Apr’25, we forecast Brent to average USD65/bbl in

FY26/FY27 (earlier: USD70/bbl).



Recently, US EIA, in its short-term energy outlook for Arp’25, decreased its Brent

crude price forecast for CY25/CY26 by USD6/USD7 per bbl to USD68/61 per bbl,

driven by rising uncertainty around global oil demand growth and potential for

additional supply by OPEC+.



We estimate every USD1/bbl change in global MS/HSD prices affects MS/HSD

gross marketing margins by INR0.5/INR0.5 per lit (6%/12% vs. current levels).



Abhishek Nigam – Research Analyst

(Abhishek.Nigam@MotilalOswal.com)

Research Analyst - Rishabh Daga

(Rishabh.Daga@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Oil & Gas



W.e.f. 8th Apr’25, the government has increased excise duty on both MS and

HSD by INR2/lit. While the increase in excise duty will affect OMCs’ marketing

margins, we do not expect any impact on our earnings estimates as the current

marketing margins, averaging above ~INR12/lit, are significantly above our

assumption of INR3.3/lit for both MS/HSD. Further, upside risks to OMC

earnings persist even after this excise duty hike.

IOCL/BPCL/HPCL added retail outlets at 7%/8%/8% CAGR over last five years



Retail outlet expansion by OMCs continues at a steady pace:

IOCL/BPCL/HPCL

have added retail outlets at a CAGR of 7%/8%/8% over the last five years.

HPCL/IOCL aim to establish 26,000/44,000 retail outlets by FY28/FY26.



Private players doubling down on marketing:

According to a recent

news

article,

in order to take advantage of robust marketing margins, private players

saw a 19.7% YoY increase in their combined domestic diesel and petrol retail

sales in FY25. In contrast, state-run companies saw a 0.6% decline in diesel sales,

while petrol sales rose by 6.4%. Overall, the combined sales growth for both

private and public retailers stood at 7.5% for petrol and 1.2% for diesel.

Exhibit 1: PSU OMCs’ retail outlets

BPCL

HPCL

IOCL

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

Source: Company, MOFSL

Weaker crude and lower slope – the twin emerging tailwinds for CGDs

As highlighted in our

recent note

on GUJGA, we believe that a weak crude price

outlook, together with a lower pricing slope for natural gas (given the impending

LNG glut), will drive down gas costs.



While Brent crude prices averaged ~USD75.8/bbl in 4QFY25, current Brent price

is ~USD62/bbl. We forecast Brent to average USD65/bbl in FY26/FY27 (earlier:

USD70/bbl). We estimate every USD10/bbl decline in Brent prices reduces the

landed cost of natural gas by USD2.3/mmbtu.



Further, according to our discussions with the listed and unlisted Indian CGD

companies, new long-term gas contracts are already being signed for a 1.0-1.3%

lower slope given the expected surge in LNG supply in 2HFY26 and beyond.



We do not foresee sharp cuts in MS/HSD retail prices:

While crude oil prices

have seen a sharp correction recently, we believe that the government will

increase excise duty on MS/HSD instead of any sharp MS/HSD retail price cuts.



The government has already increased excise duty on MS/HSD by INR2/lit

recently. Previously, excise duty on MS/HSD was increased by INR10/INR13 per

lit in May’20 (link). However, later in Nov’21 and May’22, the government

reduced excise duty on MS/HSD cumulatively by INR13/INR16 per lit (link).



Hence, we think the risk of CNG prices being under pressure due to declining

MS/HSD prices is overblown.



8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 1: Margin improvement driven by lower Brent price and pricing slope % for long-

term contracts

Particulars

Brent price

Pricing slope

LNG price

LNG Price post import duty

Regasification charges

Transportation tariff

N Gas price pre tax

VAT @ 15%

LNG landed cost

Unit

USD/bbl

USD/mmbtu

INR/scm

Scenario 1

75.0

13.5

10.1

10.4

0.8

0.9

12.1

1.8

13.9

44.4

Scenario 2

65.0

12.5

8.1

8.3

0.8

0.9

10.1

1.5

11.6

36.9

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 2: Margin improvement fueled by the decline in spot LNG prices

Particulars

LNG price

LNG Price post import duty

Regasification charges

Transportation tariff

N Gas price pre tax

VAT @ 15%

LNG landed cost

Unit

USD/mmbtu

INR/scm

Scenario 1

14.5

14.9

0.8

0.9

16.6

2.5

19.1

60.9

Scenario 2

13.5

13.8

0.8

0.9

15.6

2.3

17.9

57.1

Source: Company, MOFSL

Oversupply in crude market likely to continue amid ongoing uncertainties





In its Apr’25 oil market report (link), IEA cut its CY25 oil demand growth forecast

to ~0.7mb/d (~1mb/d earlier) and estimated global oil supply to exceed demand

by ~470kb/270kb per day in CY25/CY26. We also highlight that while OPEC+

surplus crude oil production capacity has declined over the last six months from

a 30-month high of 6.3mb/d in Sep’24, it still remained high at 5.6mb/d in

Mar’25.

CY25 demand estimate downgraded by ~300kb/d:

IEA reduced its global crude

oil demand projection for CY25 by ~300kb/d to 730kb/d amid rising trade

tensions that have dampened the economic outlook. In CY26, IEA estimates oil

demand growth to slow down further to 690kb/d.

Global oil supply to exceed demand by ~470kb/270kb per day in CY25/CY26:

IEA reduced its global crude oil supply projection for CY25 by ~260kb/d to

1.2mb/d, as a result of reduced production in the US and Venezuela. In CY26,

IEA estimates oil supply growth of 960kb/d.

Restricting supply from OPEC+ members currently overproducing to counter

the un-winding of voluntary cuts:

As per IEA, while the unexpected move by

eight OPEC+ members to triple their planned output increases for May’25 to

411kb/d will widen the oil supply-demand gap, the actual rise in production may

be significantly lower, as several countries, including Kazakhstan, the UAE, and

Iraq, are already producing well above their assigned targets. Notably,

Kazakhstan's crude oil production hit a record 1.8mb/d, driven by the launch of

the Chevron-operated Tengiz oilfield expansion project. This places the country

~390kb/d above its OPEC+ production quota.

Global crude run forecast lowered; refining margins show mixed trends:

Global

crude runs are projected to average 83.2mb/d in CY25 and demand growth

forecasts are lowered, reducing the expected annual increase by 230kb/d to

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

340kb/d. In CY26, throughput is anticipated to rise by 360kb/d to 83.6mb/d.

Refining margins showed mixed trends in Mar’25, declining in the Atlantic Basin

but improving for sour crude processing in Singapore. The drop in profitability

was largely driven by weaker middle distillate cracks.



Inventories rise in Feb’25:

Global oil inventories increased by 21.9mb in Feb’25.

Crude, NGLs, and feedstocks rose by 41.2mb, with OECD onshore inventories

contributing 14.1mb to the increase. Meanwhile, oil product stocks declined by

19.2mb, as a 34.2mb drop in the OECD offset gains in oil held on water.

Preliminary data suggests that global oil inventories continued to rise in Mar’25,

driven by crude stock builds in non-OECD regions and higher volumes of oil on

water.

Exhibit 2: Global oil supply to exceed demand by ~470kb/270kb per day in CY25/CY26

Global oil supply growth (kb/d)

1200

Global oil demand growth (kb/d)

960

730

690

Source: IEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 3: OPEC+ surplus crude oil production capacity (mb/d)

Total OPEC+ crude oil production spare capacity

Source: IEA, MOFSL

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 4: OPEC+ Mar’25 crude production spare capacity break-up (5.6mb/d)

Others

1.1mb/d

20%

Kuwait

0.4mb/d

UAE

1.0mb/d

18%

Saudi Arabia

3.1mb/d

56%

Source: IEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 5: OPEC+ crude oil production (mb/d)

Total OPEC+ crude oil production

Source: IEA, MOFSL

~1.5mb/d net refining capacity additions over CY25-26



Even after assuming a six-

month delay in the

commissioning of IOCL’s

~347kb/d refinery

expansions, net refinery

capacity additions globally

remain heavy at

~0.4mb/0.95mb per day in

CY25/ CY26.



Thai Oil expects ~1.5mb/d net additions and expansions in refining capacity

globally over CY25-26 (FY24: ~1.6mb/d). Capacity additions will be led by Asia: 1)

320kb/d Aramco-Norinco Panjin refinery, expected to be commissioned in

2HCY26, 2) 100kb/d Pertamina Balikpapan modernization, to be fully complete

in CY26, and 3) India’s 180kb/d HPCL Barmer, 201kb/d IOCL Panipat refinery

expansion, 86kb/d IOCL Gujarat refinery expansion and 60kb/d IOCL Barauni

refinery expansion. However, ~347kb/d capacity addition led by IOCL, slated for

commissioning in CY25 and CY26 are expected to get delayed by six months.

While global oil demand inched up by ~0.9mb/d in CY24, IEA global oil demand

is expected to grow by ~0.7mb/d both in CY25/26.

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 6: Global net refining capacity additions vs. additional demand

Source: Thai Oil, MOFSL

Exhibit 7: US gasoline inventory (mb)

280

260

240

220

226

2020

2023

2021

2024

2022

2025

Exhibit 8: US gasoil inventory (mb)

2020

200

170

140

110

2023

2021

2024

2022

2025

108

200

Source: Reuters, MOFSL

Valuations attractive for ONGC/OINL at 0.7x/1.1x 1-yr fwd. P/B

ONGC/OINL have corrected 14%/19% over the past 4 months and now trade at

0.8x/1.2x 1-yr fwd P/B. While OINL still above its 1-yr fwd mean +1SD P/B, ONGC

now trades at par with its LTA 1-yr fwd P/B. At current prices, ONGC/OINL have

a dividend yield of ~5%/~3.5%.



While modelling upstream companies, we forecast Brent to average USD65/bbl

in FY26/FY27. However, crude prices could potentially slip lower if global real

GDP growth worsens, as tariff-related macroeconomic challenges linger. We

estimate every USD1/bbl decline in Brent prices leads to a ~2% decline in

FY26/FY27 PAT for ONGC/OINL.



Additionally, any decline in crude oil prices below USD65/bbl may lead to a fall

in APM/NW gas realizations, which are priced at 10%/12% slope to Brent.



While valuations look cheap at 0.7x/1.1x FY27E PB for ONGC/OINL SA, earnings

could face further downside risks. Our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates are 15%/11%

below consensus for ONGC SA and 12%/15% below consensus for OINL SA.



8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 9: ONGC/OINL trades at par with LTA/mean + 1 S.D. 1yr fwd. P/B

OINL

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.5

ONGC

Current P/B

Mean 1y fdw. P/B

-1SD P/B

Source: Company, MOFSL

Our top picks: HPCL and MAHGL

HPCL

remains our preferred pick among the three OMCs. We model a marketing

margin of INR3.3/lit for both MS and HSD in FY26/27, while the current MS and

HSD marketing margins are above INR10/lit, respectively. We view the following

as key catalysts for the stock: 1) the de-merger and potential listing of the

lubricant business, 2) the commissioning of its bottom upgrade unit in 2QCY26,

3) the start of its Rajasthan refinery in FY26, and 4) LPG under-recovery

compensation.



HPCL currently trades at 1.5x FY26E P/B, which we believe offers a reasonable

margin of safety as we estimate FY26E RoE of 17.3%. We value the stock at our

SoTP-based TP of INR455/sh. Reiterate BUY.



MAHGL:

We expect a 10% CAGR in volume over FY25-27, driven by multiple

initiatives implemented by the company, such as collaborating with OEMs to

drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing guaranteed price

discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.



The stock trades at 12.6x FY26E EPS of INR111.5. We value it at 15x FY27E EPS to

arrive at our TP of INR1,760. Reiterate BUY.



Exhibit 10: HPCL’s SoTP-based valuation

Particulars

HPCL standalone

(-) Standalone FY27E Net Debt

Standalone Market Cap

+ Lubricant business- value unlocking

+ MRPL

+ HMEL

+ Chhara terminal

+ HRRL

SoTP

(/) shares outstanding

TP (INR/share)

Earning metric

Dec'26E EBITDA

2,02,715

Val metric

EV/EBITDA

Multiple

6.0

Amount (INR m)

12,23,388

6,18,331

6,05,057

80,000

35,650

93,100

12,232

1,40,000

9,66,038

2,128

455

FY24 EBITDA

10,000

MOFSL TP

35,650

FY24 PAT

9,310

Book Value

12,232

Equity invested till date

EV/EBITDA

P/E

P/B

8.0

10.0

1.0

0.5

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 11: Brent crude price (USD/bbl)

Brent Crude Price (USD/bbl)

120

84.6

75.8

65.0

Exhibit 12: Brent less WTI (USD/bbl)

Brent less WTI (USD/bbl)

3.9

4.4 4.3

Source: Reuters, MOFSL

Exhibit 13: Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)

Reuters Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)

Exhibit 14: Various product cracks over Dubai crude

(USD/bbl)

3QFY24

3QFY25

3.5

3.2

5.2

(4)

(3.5)

(22)

(40)

Gasoline Naphtha

Source: Reuters, MOFSL

(24.0)

LPG

Diesel

Jet/Kero Fuel Oil

9.6

4QFY24

4QFY25

1QFY25

1QFY26

2QFY25

9.3

14.3

1.7

Source: Reuters, MOFSL

Exhibit 15: LPG import, production and consumption trends

'000 mt

3200

2400

1600

800

LPG Import

Domestic Production

LPG Consumption

Import growth (YoY)

70%

40%

10%

-20%

-50%

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 16: India’s natural gas production

NatGas (bcm)

Onshore

Offshore

Grand Total

2.0

1.8

2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1

2.2

2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2

2.1

2.0

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Exhibit 17: India’s crude oil production

Oil (mmt)

ONGC

OINL

Pvt/JVs

Total

0.6

0.5 0.5

0.6 0.6

0.6

0.6 0.6

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

0.6

0.6 0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

0.3

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

0.3

1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6

1.6

1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Exhibit 18: Sector-wise natural gas consumption in India (mmscmd)

Fertilizer

Power

City Gas

Industrial

Petrochem/Ref

Others

Total

Total YoY

60%

40%

20%

-20%

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 19: Sector-wise domestic gas vs. LNG consumption in India (mmscmd)

Mar-25

9.4

15.4

28.6

8.3

32.3

93.9

Domestic Gas

Mar-24

7.4

17.0

27.2

7.8

37.7

97.1

Feb-25

8.6

16.3

30.6

8.2

32.1

95.8

Mar-25

44.2

3.5

13.2

15.4

12.5

88.8

LNG

Mar-24

48.1

4.9

12.7

20.3

12.6

98.6

Feb-25

47.3

3.5

14.0

16.5

13.4

94.6

Mar-25

53.5

18.9

41.7

23.7

44.8

182.7

Total

Mar-24

Feb-25

55.5

55.9

21.9

19.8

39.9

44.6

28.1

24.6

50.3

45.5

195.7

190.4

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Fertilizer

Power

City Gas

Industrial

Petrochem/Ref

Others

Total

Exhibit 20: Refined products – import and export (mmt)

PRODUCT IMPORT

PRODUCT EXPORTS

5 5

(0)

Net Product Export

Net Product Export YoY % change

-200%

-600%

200%

600%

5 55

-1000%

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Exhibit 21: Throughput and capacity utilization – Indian refiners

Mar (MMT)

YoY % Change

Aug Utilisation (%)

108%

119%

123%

122%

131%

102%

105%

109%

6348

IOCL

10%

3412

HPCL

3621

BPCL

-6%

1067

CPCL

1651

ONGC

5821

RIL

-2%

1751

NEL

-5%

273

NRL

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Exhibit 22: India’s LNG import trend

LNG imports (mmt)

14%

-6%

-23% -18%

-15% -16% -12%

-7%

4.7

5.8

6.6

7.2

6.9

7.0

YoY growth %

39%

22% 24% 20%

20%

6.3

5.8

5.1

5.5

4.8

Source: PPAC, MOFSL

Note: Mar’25 data unavailable

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Financials and valuations: HPCL (Target Price: INR455) BUY

Financial Snapshot

Y/E March

Sales

EBITDA

Adj. PAT

Adj. EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh.(INR)

Ratios

Net D:E

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div. Yield (%)

FCF Yield (%)

FY19

2,755

115

-7

143

0.8

23.9

12.9

43.0

12.6

2.8

9.6

2.7

-3.2

FY20

2,691

-46

146

1.3

11.9

12.0

76.0

23.2

2.7

21.8

1.6

-9.9

FY21

2,332

160

107

193

179

1.1

30.9

14.9

30.3

7.9

2.2

7.9

3.8

7.4

FY22

3,499

102

-32

195

1.1

18.4

8.3

27.2

11.6

2.0

12.6

2.4

4.5

FY23

4,407

-72

-70

-33

152

2.1

-19.0

-7.8

0.0

-12.1

2.6

-20.9

0.0

-15.2

FY24

4,339

249

160

220

1.3

40.4

15.9

27.9

5.3

1.8

5.9

5.3

16.5

FY25

4,341

166

-58

240

1.3

13.7

8.2

33.2

12.5

1.7

9.1

2.6

5.7

FY26E

3,332

193

269

1.1

17.3

9.1

34.1

9.0

1.5

7.6

3.8

12.9

(INR b)

FY27E

3,409

204

298

1.0

15.6

9.0

35.4

9.0

1.3

7.2

3.9

7.8

Key Assumptions- HPCL

Particulars

Exchange Rate (INR/USD)

Brent Crude (USD/bbl)

Market Sales (MMT)

YoY (%)

GRM (USD/bbl)

Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)

Prem/(disc) (USD/bbl)

Total Refinery throughput (MMT)

YoY (%)

Refining capacity utilization (%)

Blended marketing margin incld inventory (INR/lit)

Consolidated EPS

FY19

70.0

70.1

38.7

5.0

4.9

18.4

117%

4.3

31.4

FY20

70.9

61.2

39.6

1.0

3.2

(2)

17.2

-7%

109%

4.0

17.1

FY21

74.3

44.4

36.6

(8)

3.9

0.5

16.4

-4%

104%

6.3

50.1

FY22

74.5

80.5

39.1

7.2

5.0

14.0

-15%

88%

4.3

34.3

FY23

80.4

96.1

43.5

12.1

10.7

19.1

37%

85%

(0.8)

-32.8

FY24

82.8

83.0

46.8

9.1

6.6

22.3

17%

91%

5.5

75.2

FY25

84.6

78.6

49.8

5.7

3.8

25.3

13%

103%

4.4

31.6

FY26E

86.0

65.0

51.6

6.2

5.0

1.2

27.0

110%

4.5

44.0

FY27E

86.2

65.0

53.7

6.5

5.0

1.5

27.0

110%

4.5

44.2

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Financials and valuations: MAHGL (Target Price: INR1,760) BUY

Financial & Valuation Summary

Y/E March

Sales

EBITDA

Adj. PAT

Adj. EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh.(INR)

Ratios

Net D:E

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuation

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div. Yield (%)

FCF Yield (%)

FY19

27.9

8.9

5.5

55.3

14.3

242.8

-0.1

24.3

43.5

25.5

5.8

15.4

1.4

2.3

FY20

29.7

10.5

7.9

80.3

45.2

298.9

-0.1

29.7

29.8

52.4

17.6

4.7

13.0

2.5

4.0

FY21

21.5

9.3

6.2

62.7

-21.9

327.2

-0.2

20.0

20.1

36.7

22.5

4.3

14.4

1.6

3.3

FY22

35.6

9.2

6.0

60.4

-3.6

364.2

-0.1

17.5

38.1

23.3

3.9

14.6

1.6

1.8

FY23

63.0

11.8

7.9

80.0

32.3

418.5

-0.1

20.4

20.5

32.5

17.6

3.4

11.6

1.8

FY24

62.4

18.4

12.9

130.5

63.2

520.6

-0.1

27.8

40.0

10.8

2.7

7.4

3.7

5.7

FY25

69.2

15.1

10.4

105.8

-18.9

596.2

0.0

18.9

19.0

28.4

13.3

2.4

9.0

2.1

FY26E

74.6

16.3

11.0

111.5

5.4

663.1

0.0

17.7

17.8

40.0

12.6

2.1

8.4

3.2

1.7

(INR b)

FY27E

81.6

17.8

12.0

121.0

8.5

735.7

0.0

17.3

17.4

40.0

11.7

1.9

7.7

3.4

2.4

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following 30 days take

appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

8 May 2025

Oil & Gas

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8 May 2025