Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | 15 May 2025

Cement

South drives cement price gains, though demand remains tepid

All-India average cement price up ~8%

YoY and 1% MoM in May’25

Average price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

All-India average cement price up INR16/bag (~5%) QTD

Cement pricing has held up well, and the all-India average price has risen by INR5/bag (~1%)

MoM in May’25 and by INR16/bag (~5%) QTD in 1QFY26. This increase is primarily fueled by

sharp price hikes in the South, followed by the East region. Other regions have also seen firm

price gains on a QTD basis. Further, benign fuel prices continued to support cost efficiency

and margin improvement. Cement demand has been soft due to labor-related issues in a few

regions, unfavorable weather conditions, slower government spending, and a weak demand

from the individual housing (IHB) segment. We estimate industry demand growth in low

single digits (~3-4% YoY) in Apr’25. We believe sustaining the recent price hike is more

critical, with demand likely to recover over the medium term as macro conditions improve.

360

345

330

315

300

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0

-15.0

South – focus on profitability drives sharp price hikes, up ~13% QTD in 1QFY26



Avg. imported petcoke price down 3%

YoY (-6% MoM) to USD108/t in Apr’25,

while spot price dipped ~8% sequentially

Imported petcoke price (USD/t)



120

110

100



Cement prices experienced a sharp increase of INR35-40/bag (average) in

Apr’25, rising ~12% MoM to an average trade price of INR358/bag. Prices rose

across key markets, up ~17%/16%/10%/5% MoM in Tamil Nadu/Kerala/Andhra

Pradesh/Karnataka in Apr’25.

Following a sharp price increase in Apr’25, industry players have announced

another hike of INR15-20/bag across markets from the second week of May’25,

though sustainability needs to be monitored.

After facing depressed margins through FY25, southern cement players are now

shifting focus toward improving profitability. They are strategically balancing

volume growth with margin improvement. Furthermore, following a wave of

M&A activity during FY25, acquirers are expected to prioritize the integration of

acquired assets, aligning them with the company’s standards, and operating

them profitably.

Earlier, the region witnessed a notable price increase of ~12%/13% YoY in FY15/

FY16, while demand growth moderated to ~5%/8% YoY. During this period, the

southern players reported notable improvement in profitability.

Average imported coal price down 16%

East – prices remain stable MoM in May’25, up ~7% QTD in 1QFY26

YoY (-2% MoM) to USD89/t in Apr’25,



In the East region, the average cement price has been flat MoM in May’25,

whereas, spot price flat sequentially

South African coal (USD/t)

120

110

100



whereas it has risen ~7% QTD in 1QFY26. After two consecutive months of price

hikes (Mar-Apr’25), the industry attempted another INR10/bag hike in May’25.

However, this hike was not sustained and was rolled back within a few days.

Demand in the East was healthy in Apr’25 but weakened in May’25 due to weak

demand from the IHB segment. Further, infrastructure demand has remained

subdued so far.

The East continues to witness capacity expansion from various players in the

next two years (estimated ~14mtpa grinding capacity addition in FY26/FY27

each). This could lead to higher competitive intensity and higher volatility in

cement prices over the near to medium term.

In the West region, cement prices largely remained flat MoM in Apr’25, followed

by a price hike of INR10/bag (~2%) announced in May’25. As a result, the

average cement price has been up ~1% QTD in 1QFY26.

West – price hikes announced in May’25, cement offtake strong in Apr’25



Sanjeev Kumar Singh - Research analyst

(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)

Research analyst - Mudit Agarwal

(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |

Abhishek Sheth

(Abhishek.Sheth@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Cement



The West saw strong cement volume offtake in Apr’25, supported by robust

demand from government-led infrastructure projects (rail, road, and highways),

an uptick in private/commercial projects activity, and sustained demand from

the real estate and housing segment. However, demand has been muted in the

initial days of May’25 amid unseasonal rain and labor unavailability.

Currently, the West region is witnessing increased inter-regional movement at

both key markets, Gujarat from the Rajasthan cluster and Maharashtra from the

Nalgonda cluster (mainly through rake supplies). This also limits price increases

in the region.

The North and Central regions witnessed a price hike of up to INR5/bag (each) in

Apr’25, led by the withdrawal of schemes/discounts given in Mar’24. After that,

industry players announced price hikes; however, price hikes have not been

sustained yet. As a result, the average cement price has been up ~2% QTD (in each

region) in 1QFY26.

The overall cement demand remained subdued, primarily due to weakness in the

housing (IHB) sector and the sluggish pace of construction activity in both

government and private sectors. However, dealers anticipate a potential uptick in

demand in coming weeks, driven by pre-monsoon project completion and a likely

increase in government spending.

The North and Central regions are expected to witness ~14mtpa of grinding capacity

addition each in FY26. We believe this incremental supply will keep pricing under

control in the near term.

The average imported petcoke (US) price declined ~6% MoM to USD108/t in Apr’25.

Moreover, spot imported petcoke (US) price declined by ~5% to USD99/t from exit-

Apr’25. The average imported coal (South Africa) price declined ~2% MoM to

USD89/t in Apr’25, while this remained range-bound in the past few months at

USD90/t. At spot prices, the imported petcoke consumption cost stood at

INR1.20/Kcal, and the imported coal consumption cost stood at USD1.36/Kcal.

The petcoke price increased during Feb-Mar’25, which is estimated to increase fuel

costs in 1QFY26. However, the recent decline in petcoke prices could help optimize

fuel costs over the medium term. We continue to monitor fuel price trends closely

for any signs of trend reversal.

We estimate average cement spreads in Apr’25 for trade sales (cement price net of

GST after subtracting variable cost) to be up INR180-190/t as compared to the

4QFY25 average.

Our positive outlook on the cement sector is based on a) industry players’ focus

on balancing volume growth and profitability, b) increasing consolidation, and c)

favorable fuel prices.

We prefer UTCEM in the large-cap space, while JKCE is our preferred pick in the

mid-cap space. DALBHARA is our tactical pick given improving regional dynamics

and its inexpensive valuation.

North & Central – prices flat MoM in May’25; up ~2% (each) QTD in 1QFY26



Lower fuel prices to aid cost optimization



Outlook and recommendation: Price recovery over volume push



15 May 2025

Cement

Exhibit 1:

South region saw robust increase in prices in FY15-16…

South - average price INR/ 50 kg bag

12.2

5.8

-8.0

-2.3 -3.1

-5.4

13.2

5.3

7.9

1.1 -0.6

-3.9

-8.7

YoY Change

Exhibit 2:

…though volume growth was moderate

South - Volume growth (%)

15.7

12.8

11.9

6.2 4.1 5.3

7.6

0.5

3.6

1.8

8.6

3.0

(14.6)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers; Note – 1QFY26 (QTD)

Source: MOFSL, Industry, company

Exhibit 3:

Southern market players posted strong profitability during FY15-16 led by sharp price increases

(INR)

FY14

FY15

FY16

1,457

1,244

955

871

919

708

754

988

898

651

623

681

858

696

864

595

619

749

535

619

585

588

354

371

318

536

285

831

986

903

Source: MOFSL; company

Exhibit 4:

Consolidation in the central region…

Capacity share of Top five players' of Central region (%)

Exhibit 5:

…spurs long-term price stability

Central - average price INR/ 50 kg bag

7.5

7.0

1.0

-4.0

0.7

2.3

3.3

0.3

-0.2

YoY Change

0.9

-5.3

Source: MOFSL, Industry, Note: Top five players share declined in

FY23-24 due to higher capacity addition by JKCE, a new entrant

marking its position under top five players and currently among the

top 2

players in the region

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers; Note: Price increase in FY23 was

mainly due to significant increase in fuel prices while, FY25 has seen

price correction across regions

15 May 2025

Cement

Story in charts

Exhibit 6:

Valuation

summary

M-cap CMP

(USD b) (INR)

UTCEM

ACEM

SRCM

JKCE

DALBHARA

ACC

TRCL

BCORP

JKLC

ICEM

Rating

P/E (x)

FY26E

40.2

44.7

89.5

41.3

35.1

21.1

47.2

22.1

21.7

Loss

FY27E

32.0

31.7

65.1

31.9

30.2

15.6

34.0

18.0

20.3

109.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

FY25E

28.1

26.2

27.1

22.6

15.4

12.9

19.7

10.3

13.7

Loss

FY26E

20.7

21.3

22.2

18.5

12.5

10.1

14.8

8.4

11.3

36.3

FY27E

17.1

16.0

18.8

15.4

10.7

7.5

12.7

7.3

9.6

20.7

EV/t (USD)

FY25E

231

171

217

209

130

FY26E

209

148

180

168

124

FY27E

193

145

175

167

106

ROE (%)

FY25E

9.3

4.1

5.9

12.6

4.1

7.8

2.6

4.8

7.9

(9.9)

FY26E

11.8

4.8

5.9

15.4

6.3

8.8

6.7

12.4

(1.3)

FY27E

13.7

6.6

7.7

17.5

6.9

10.9

8.8

7.7

12.0

1.0

Net debt/

EBITDA (x)

FY25E FY26E FY27E

1.3 0.9 0.5

(2.4) (0.2) (0.2)

(1.4) (1.0) (1.1)

2.1 1.9 1.5

0.3 0.7 0.7

(1.3) (1.1) (1.3)

3.4 2.3 1.8

2.0 2.0 2.4

2.3 2.0 2.6

Loss 4.5 2.5

FY25E

40.17 11,889 Buy 57.3

15.77

547

Buy

59.6

13.25 31,385 Neutral 92.9

4.74 5,244

Buy

54.8

4.58 2,087

Buy

56.3

4.14 1,883

Buy

26.4

2.77 1,003 Neutral 127.0

1.24 1,380

Buy

32.7

1.19

863

Buy

37.0

1.17

323

Sell

Loss

Source: MOFSL, Company; Note: ACEM estimates and valuation on a consolidated basis

Exhibit 7:

Industry spread* improved, led by price hikes

(INR/t)

Spreads (Prices - Variable cost)

EBITDA - (RHS)

(INR/t)

3,000

1,500

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

1,200

900

600

300

Source: MOFSL; *Price (net of GST) less variable cost

Exhibit 8:

All-India average cement price up 8% YoY in May’25

Average price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 9:

Average cement price up 6% YoY in the North in May

North retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

Exhibit 10:

Average cement price up 4% YoY in Central in May’25

Central retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 11:

Average cement price up 9% YoY in East in May’25

East retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

15 May 2025

Cement

Exhibit 12:

Average cement price up 14% YoY in South in May’25

South retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Exhibit 13:

Average cement price up 7% YoY in West in May’25

West retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

Change YoY (%)

Source: MOFSL, Cement dealers

Exhibit 14:

Average US petcoke price down 8% YoY in May’25

Imported petcoke price (USD/t)

YoY growth (%)

Exhibit 15:

Domestic petcoke price up ~2% YoY in May’25

Domestic petcoke price(INR/t)

YoY growth (%)

Source: MOFSL, Industry

Exhibit 16:

Avg. South African coal price down 16% YoY in May’25

South African coal (USD/t)

YoY growth (%)

Exhibit 17:

Diesel price decreased 2.3% YoY (flat MoM) in May’25

Diesel price (INR/ltr)

YoY growth (%)

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

Source: MOFSL, Industry, Bloomberg,

Exhibit 18:

Crude oil price trend

Brent Crude (USD/ton)

116

100

71 76

Exhibit 19:

Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index (USD)

3,100

81 83

2,400

1,700

1,000

300

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL; Note: Baltic dry index as of month-end

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

15 May 2025

Cement

NOTES

15 May 2025

Cement

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following

30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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15 May 2025

Cement

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time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment

banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent

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securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform

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query@motilaloswal.com

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Mr. Ajay Menon

022 40548083

am@motilaloswal.com

Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and

IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.

15 May 2025