Review 4QFY25
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 81,451
Refer to our Mar’25
Quarter Preview
Nifty-50: 24,751
Earnings review – 4QFY25: Beyond the benchmark – a surprise
surge!
Earnings above expectations | Nifty exits FY25 with 1% EPS growth
Corporate earnings – a broad-based beat, 13 sectors exceed expectations:
The
4QFY25 corporate earnings concluded on a strong note, showcasing widespread
outperformance across aggregates. Metals, OMCs, PSU Banks, Automobiles,
Healthcare, Technology, and Capital Goods fueled this healthy performance.
Conversely, Oil & Gas (ex-OMCs) and Private Banks dragged overall profitability.
Metals, OMCs propel earnings growth:
The aggregate earnings of the MOFSL
Universe companies grew 10% YoY (vs. our est. of 2% YoY) in 4QFY25. The better-
than-expected earnings growth was powered by Metals (profit surged 45% YoY on
a low 4QFY24 base). OMC’s profit jumped 14% YoY vs. our est. of a 59% decline,
complemented by PSU Banks (+9% YoY), Automobiles (+8% YoY), Technology (+7%
YoY), Healthcare (+17% YoY), Capital Goods (+14% YoY), Consumer Durables (+37%
YoY), and Telecom (profit of INR5b vs. loss of INR25b YoY). In contrast, aggregate
earnings growth was hit by Oil & Gas (ex OMCs), which posted a profit decline of
12% YoY. Further, earnings were dragged down by Private Banks (-6% YoY),
Cement (-3% YoY), and Consumer (-1%).
Excluding Financials,
the earnings for MOFSL Universe grew 12% YoY (est. +1%
YoY); whereas, barring global commodities (i.e., Metals and O&G), the MOFSL
Universe reported a 10% YoY earnings growth (est. +5% YoY).
A fourth successive quarter of single-digit growth for the Nifty-50:
The Nifty
delivered a 3% YoY PAT growth (vs. our est. of +2%).
Nifty reported a single-digit
profit growth for the fourth successive quarter since the pandemic (Jun’20).
Five
Nifty companies – Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and HDFC Bank
– contributed 137% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely,
IndusInd Bank, ONGC, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Grasim contributed
adversely to the earnings.
Large-caps and mid-caps deliver a beat, while small-caps report a miss:
Within
our MOFSL coverage universe, large-caps (86 companies) posted an earnings
growth of 10% YoY. Mid-caps (89 companies) stood out and delivered 19%
earnings growth (est. of 10%), led by Financials (PSU Banks and NBFCs), Metals,
Healthcare, and Retail. In contrast, small-caps (122 companies) experienced a
broad-based miss adversely impacted by the Financials sector. The small-cap
earnings dipped 16% YoY (est. of: -11%), with 39% of the coverage universe
missing our estimates. On the other hand, within the large-cap and mid-cap
universe, 21%/25% of the companies missed our estimates.
The beat-miss dynamics:
The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was
favorable, with 41% of the companies exceeding our estimates, while 29%
reported a miss at the PAT level. For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-
to-downgrade ratio has improved to 0.6x in 4QFY25 (from 0.3x in 3QFY25 for
FY26E), with the earnings of 63 companies having been upgraded by >3%, while
the earnings of 110 companies have been downgraded by >3%. Further, the
EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded 60 bp YoY to
17.6%, primarily aided by the Metals, Healthcare, Telecom, and Infrastructure
sectors but hurt by the Cement, Real Estate, Consumer, and Automobiles sectors.
Expectations vs. delivery: 4QFY25
% of companies that have declared results
Above Expectations
In-line
Below Expectations
MOFSL
PAT
Nifty
41
30
29
30
44
26
Research Analyst: Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com) |
Deven Mistry
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Abhishek Saraf
(Abhishek.Saraf@MotilalOswal.com) |
Aanshul Agarawal
(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)
June 2025
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
PAT growth YoY in 4QFY25 (%)
12
10
10
9
MOFSL Ex BFSI
Ex
Ex
Univ.
Metals OMCs
& Oil
PAT growth YoY in FY25 (%)
FY25 PAT growth YoY (%)
11.6
4.4
4.6
-17.3
MOFSL
Univ.
Large Mid Cap Small
Cap
Cap
Report card:
Of the 25 sectors under our coverage, 13/9/3 sectors reported
profits above/in line/below our estimates. Of the 297 companies under coverage,
122 exceeded our profit estimates, while 87 posted a miss, and 88 were in line.
The FY25 snapshot:
The MOFSL Universe delivered a 4.4% YoY earnings growth
in FY25. Excluding Metals, and O&G, it reported an 11.1% YoY earnings growth.
We categorized the coverage stocks, based on market capitalization, into
large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap segments.
Notably, our large-cap universe
saw a 4.6% YoY earnings growth in FY25, while mid-cap delivered an 11.6% YoY
growth, and small-cap posted a decline of 17.3% YoY in FY25.
FY26E earnings highlights:
The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/
PAT growth of 4%/12%/14% YoY in FY26. The Financials, Metals, and Oil & Gas
sectors are projected to be the key growth engines, with 11%, 25%, and 13%
YoY earnings growth, respectively. However, we foresee downside risks to our
earnings estimates for FY26E/27E.
MOFSL Universe experienced a cut of 2.2%/1.1% for FY26E/FY27:
Our MOFSL
Universe witnessed a cut of 2.2% for FY26, led by Oil & Gas, Metals, Technology,
PSU Banks, NBFCs, and Automobiles. Further, our mid-cap and small-cap
universes experienced a bigger cut at 3.8% each in FY26E. The large-cap
universe witnessed a cut of 1.8%.
Nifty exits FY25 with 1% EPS growth:
Nifty EPS for FY25 ended at INR1,013 (+1%
YoY) over a high base of FY24 (+24% YoY) as the earnings normalized and tracked
the revenue trend. The past two financial years experienced an interesting
interplay of revenue and earnings growth, driven by global macros.
Nifty EPS cut by 1.9%/1.1% for FY26E/FY27E:
The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 was
cut by 1.9% to INR1,135, largely owing to SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors,
and TCS. FY27E EPS was also reduced by 1.1% to INR1,314 (from INR1,328) due to
downgrades in SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, TCS, and Reliance Industries.
The top earnings upgrades in FY26E:
Bharat Electronics (7.1%), Bharti Airtel
(6.6%), Hindalco (5.8%), Adani Ports (4.6%), and M&M (4.4%).
The top earnings downgrades in FY26E:
Eternal (-53.9%), IndusInd Bank (-45.6%),
ONGC (-13.4%), Tata Motors (-11.6%), and JSW Steel (-8.5%).
Key sectoral highlights
–
1)
Banks:
The banking sector witnessed a mixed
quarter, with business momentum gaining a mild pace amid a busy 4Q.
However, the margin outcome was divergent for the private and public banks.
Most of the large private banks had seen a sequential improvement in NIMs
amid lower-day adjustments in 4Q, while public banks continue to see a
moderation in NIMs, although calibrated at low single digits. 2)
Autos:
For our
coverage universe, total revenue grew ~6% YoY and was in line with our
estimates. While Auto OEMs posted a 5% YoY growth, the auto ancillary
universe posted a higher growth of 8% YoY. For FY26E, the industry body
expects PVs to grow in the low single digits (2-4%), CVs to grow in mid-single
digits, and 2Ws to grow at ~6%. 3)
Consumer:
Our coverage universe reported a
6.2% YoY revenue growth (vs. est. 6.3%). Excluding ITC, our consumer sector
grew 6.6% YoY (est. 7.3%). The demand remained subdued during the quarter.
Volume growth across most companies was limited to low-to-mid-single digits.
4)
Oil & Gas:
Revenue came in 7% above our estimate (flat YoY). Excluding
OMCs, revenue was 8% above our estimate (up 7% YoY). EBITDA was 16% above
estimates (flat YoY), with OMCs, GAIL, and IGL beating our estimates. Excluding
OMCs, EBITDA was in line with estimates (flat YoY). Adjusted PAT was 27%
above est. (down 5% YoY). Adjusted PAT, excluding OMCs, was in line (down
2
June 2025
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sector Review
Compendium
Highlights / Surprise /
Guidance… (Page 22 onwards)
Automobiles
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer – FMCG | QSR
Consumer Durables
EMS
Financials – Banks
Financials – NBFC: Lending
Financials – NBFC: Non Lending
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
12% YoY). 5)
Technology:
The IT services companies within the MOFSL Universe
posted a 0.7% QoQ decline in median revenue in 4QFY25 (vs. growth of
1.8%/2.0%/1.2% in 3QFY25/2QFY25/1QFY25). The backdrop remains
challenging, as macro uncertainty continues to weigh on IT demand, marking a
softer exit to FY25. FY26 setups diverge across tier-1 companies: TCS/Wipro
guide for weak 1Q; INFO strikes a cautiously optimistic tone with the upper end
of INFO’s guidance (3% YoY organic cc growth) assuming a ‘stable to marginally
improving environment’. HCLT leads with the most constructive guidance of 2-
5% YoY in CC. 6)
Metals:
Ferrous companies reported robust growth as imports
softened. The Ferrous companies within our coverage clocked a sales volume
growth of 9% YoY and 12% QoQ. This growth was primarily led by the resumption
of construction activity and softening imports, coupled with a low base effect.
Our view:
The 4QFY25 earnings fared better than expectations; however,
forward earnings revisions continue to exhibit weakness, with downgrades
surpassing upgrades. The Nifty-50 registered a modest 1% EPS growth in FY25
(following a 20%+ CAGR during FY20-24). The market has rebounded notably
over the last two months, completely reversing its YTD decline. Currently, the
Nifty is trading 4.7% higher in CY25YTD. With this rally, the Nifty trades at 21.8x
FY26E earnings, near its LPA of 20.7x. While near-term challenges such as global
macros, trade wars, and earnings will keep the market volatile and jittery, we
believe that the medium-to-long-term growth narrative for India remains intact.
Our
model portfolio
stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards
large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. We are OW
on BFSI, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, IT, and Telecom, while
we are UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Automobiles, Real Estate, and Metals.
EPS (INR)
EPS CAGR (%)
PE (x)
PB (x)
ROE (%)
FY25 FY26E FY27E
FY25-27
FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E
13.7
44.1
13.2
21.6
8.2
17.0
18.1
22.3
25.8
26.7
27.6
61.3
21.7
34.7
18.8
35.6
30.2
84.1
130.7
32.8
23.9
39.0
19.8
28.9
19.1
29.5
24.5
66.4
101.7
25.9
21.4
29.5
16.9
23.5
16.1
26.0
21.6
56.2
82.6
20.4
4.6
9.1
3.5
5.2
2.7
5.6
5.8
27.2
34.3
5.1
2.1
7.9
3.2
4.6
2.4
4.9
4.9
21.1
25.2
5.0
8.3
11.6
18.3
11.6
22.3
6.0
5.6
8.0
30.3
11.3
3.4
1.9
6.0
2.7
4.1
2.1
4.2
4.2
16.7
19.0
4.8
7.1
10.6
14.1
8.4
16.4
5.1
4.8
7.1
25.1
9.1
2.9
8.5
18.0
18.0
15.8
12.8
16.6
20.8
35.8
32.2
15.7
16.3
32.4
29.8
29.4
30.0
11.4
16.3
13.9
51.8
11.0
16.8
9.2
22.5
17.1
16.9
12.6
17.6
21.7
35.9
30.6
19.5
17.1
33.1
33.0
31.9
29.1
15.7
15.4
18.0
48.9
17.2
18.8
9.4
25.3
17.5
18.4
13.3
17.4
20.8
33.3
28.1
23.8
17.3
34.5
30.1
32.2
31.1
19.0
16.7
20.6
47.5
22.3
20.0
Exhibit 1: Our preferred ideas
Company
Preferred large cap stocks
Reliance Inds.
224.7
Bharti Airtel
132.1
ICICI Bank
119.3
Larsen & Toubro
59.0
Kotak Mahindra Bank
48.2
Sun Pharma
47.1
Mahindra & Mahindra
43.3
Titan Company
37.0
Trent
23.4
Tech Mahindra
18.0
Preferred midcap/smallcap stocks
1,421 51.5 59.5 66.5
1,857 30.3 47.6 62.9
1,446 66.8 72.9 85.5
3,676 105.9 127.3 156.7
2,076 110.4 108.9 129.1
1,678 47.1 56.8 64.5
2,978 98.7 121.5 137.8
3,554 42.3 53.5 63.3
5,642 43.2 55.5 68.3
1,574 47.9 60.9 77.0
MCap CMP
(USDb) (INR)
Indian Hotels
12.8
770 11.8 14.7 17.5
21.6
65.1 52.5 44.1 9.8
HDFC AMC
11.9 4,784 115.2 131.3 149.0
13.7
41.5 36.4 32.1 12.6
BSE
12.7 2,674 32.4 48.2 57.1
32.7
82.4 55.5 46.8 24.5
Suzlon Energy
11.4
71
1.1
1.7
2.4
48.3
66.3 42.1 30.1 16.0
Dixon Tech.
10.3 14,691 117.2 168.7 241.6
43.6
125.4 87.1 60.8 29.4
SRF
9.9 2,859 46.1 70.9 98.7
46.4
62.1 40.3 29.0 6.7
JSW Infra
7.0
291
7.0
7.5
9.4
16.2
41.7 38.6 30.8 6.2
Coforge
6.7 8,551 126.2 231.6 290.5
51.7
67.8 36.9 29.4 8.8
Page Industries
6.0 46,399 652.9 749.1 877.2
15.9
71.1 61.9 52.9 36.8
Kaynes Tech
4.5 5,977 45.8 83.5 132.4
70.0
130.5 71.6 45.2 13.5
L T Foods
1.8
440 17.4 22.5 28.0
26.8
25.2 19.6 15.7 4.0
Note: LP = Loss to profit; Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap Stocks listed above are as per SEBI Categorization
June 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Aggregate performance better than estimated, anchored by Metals
The MOFSL Universe’s sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT grew 6%/9%/11%/10% YoY (vs.
our est. of +4%/+4%/+4%/+2%). Excluding Metals and O&G, the MOFSL Universe
companies recorded sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 8%/9%/11%/10% YoY (vs.
est. of +9%/7%/7%/5%) in 4QFY25.
The better-than-expected earnings growth was powered by Metals (profit surged
45% YoY on a low 4QFY24 base). OMC’s profit jumped 14% YoY vs. our est. of a
59% decline, complemented by PSU Banks (+9% YoY), Automobiles (+8% YoY),
Technology (+7% YoY), Healthcare (+17% YoY), Capital Goods (+14% YoY),
Consumer Durables (+37% YoY), and Telecom (profit of INR5b vs. loss of INR25b
YoY). In contrast, aggregate earnings growth was hit by Oil & Gas (ex OMCs), which
posted a profit decline of 12% YoY. Further, earnings were dragged down by
Private Banks (-6% YoY), Cement (-3% YoY), and Consumer (-1%).
The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded 60bp YoY to
17.6%, primarily aided by the Metals, Healthcare, Telecom, and Infrastructure
sectors but hurt by the Cement, Real Estate, Consumer, and Automobiles sectors.
Sales
EBITDA
PBT
PAT
Exhibit 2: Sector-wise 4QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Universe companies (INRb)
Sector
(no of companies)
Chg. %
YoY
6
9.9
11
10.4
6
21.3
71
3.5
6
1.2
1
17.7
20
12.4
-8
13.7
0
5.5
2
7.4
5
16.7
-4
6.7
19
6.4
20
5.9
6.4
8.0
7.6
7.0
7.7
Var.
Var.
Var.
Var.
Chg. %
Chg. %
Chg. %
over Mar-25
over Mar-25
over Mar-25
over
YoY
YoY
YoY
Exp. (%)
Exp. (%)
Exp. (%)
Exp. (%)
-0.4
460
2
0.8
369
11
5.6
281
8
6.3
-5.2
148
13.5
3.8
141
15.3
7.0
100
14.2
7.6
2.1
117
6
7.1
71
-7
11.0
50
-3
12.7
2.7
31
13.9
4.0
23
12.7
3.1
17
18.1
4.6
-0.1
203
2
0.8
191
2
0.2
142
-1
-1.3
3.7
26
34.1
10.2
25
34.4
13.2
18
36.9
13.4
3.3
13
75
11.2
12
118
37.6
7
60
-5.3
-0.6
1,844
5.2
2.7
1,655
8.9
3.4
1,289
6.1
4.3
0.9
676
-5
-1.2
541
5
-2.9
410
-6
-2.9
-1.6
672
9.3
6.1
547
5.1
1.3
412
8.7
4.0
-1.8
77
1
4.6
247
42
28.1
212
35
21.1
3.7
383
19.4
3.9
284
1.4
2.6
224
4.1
4.7
3.0
36
25
3.1
37
14
5.6
30
14
7.9
1.6
217
17.6
0.6
177
12.9
3.2
137
16.7
5.5
-3.6
14
2
5.5
8
-10
15.6
6
5
8.8
-2.0
66
18.7
-7.0
46
21.3
-9.4
41
27.6
-1.9
2.6
7
-3
-0.8
7
19
18.9
5
21
20.5
3.4
601
20.4
6.0
425
33.9
10.0
305
44.7
16.0
7.1
996
3
16.3
654
-4
22.2
473
-5
27.1
8.0
724
1.4
3.2
462
-8.9
0.0
321
-11.8
1.1
-11.9
48
-1
-7.9
47
4
-1.1
40
4
24.3
1.3
60
15.8
2.9
33
20.3
6.8
24
17.1
2.5
-13.7
3
-11
-31.4
2
42
-20.1
2
61
-24.5
-1.2
442
5.3
-1.1
416
6.3
-0.1
311
6.7
0.9
0.7
383
29
-0.2
58
835
-7.2
5
LP
-29.5
0.9
262
6.2
0.2
158
9.5
9.4
114
6.8
-2.7
-1.0
143
43
19.7
73
76
29.7
58
64
34.1
1.8
8.9
4.4
10.7
6.6
9.6
8.0
6,082
4,591
3,425
2.3
10.6
5.2
11.8
8.5
11.9
10.4
4,239
2,936
2,136
-0.7
8.8
1.9
11.5
3.7
9.5
4.4
4,486
3,513
2,647
1.1
8.9
2.5
10.7
3.9
9.4
5.0
5,811
4,400
3,273
1.3
6.6
1.0
8.5
0.3
3.2
0.7
3,771
2,841
2,046
1.3
5.3
0.4
7.6
0.2
2.4
0.3
3,017
2,265
1,633
Mar-25
Automobiles (26)
3,363
Capital Goods (12)
1,148
Cement (11)
691
Chemicals (12)
173
Consumer (20)
882
Consumer Durables (5)
234
EMS (7)
171
Financials (61)
4,692
Banks-Private (12)
925
Banks-PSU (6)
899
Insurance (7)
2,331
NBFC - Lending (22)
468
NBFC - Non Lending (14)
69
Healthcare (25)
913
Infrastructure (3)
49
Logistics (8)
173
Media (3)
43
Metals (10)
3,081
Oil & Gas (14)
8,017
Ex OMCs (11)
3,860
Real Estate (13)
179
Retail (20)
572
Staffing (4)
107
Technology (12)
1,979
Telecom (5)
749
Utilities (7)
796
Others (19)
724
MOFSL Universe (297)
28,738
MOFSL Ex Financials (236)
24,046
MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil (273) 17,641
MOFSL Ex OMCs (294)
24,581
Nifty (50)
14,694
Sensex (30)
11,089
LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss
June 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
MOFSL Mid-cap universe PAT
growth YoY (%)
Mid Cap
177
Mid-caps exhibit unexpected resilience
82
15
31
9 2
0
-37 -30
27
3
6
19
The MOFSL Mid-cap Universe’s 4QFY25 sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth stood at
+6%/+12%/+15%/+19% YoY (vs. our est. of +2%/+7%/+6%/+10%). Excluding
Metals and O&G, the MOFSL Universe companies recorded sales/EBITDA/
PBT/PAT growth of 12%/10%/9%/15% YoY (v/s est. of +11%/9%/7%/14%).
Across the cap-curve, the MOFSL Mid-cap universe posted the best results with
19% YoY growth in PAT (~10% ahead of our estimate) vs. 10% for the MOFSL Large-
cap universe and a disappointing 16% YoY dip for the Small-cap universe. Barring
the volatile commodities sectors, i.e., Oil & Gas/Metals, PAT growth for the MOFSL
Mid-cap universe was an impressive 15% YoY, in line with our estimate.
The quality of results was notable, with widespread distribution of strong growth
across several Mid-cap sectors – in several cases better than the large-cap
counterparts. Mid-cap Metals (+84% YoY) was the leader in growth terms,
accounting for ~37% of the overall YoY incremental PAT of the MOFSL Mid Cap
universe. Similarly, Mid-cap PSU Banks posted a strong PAT growth of 39% YoY,
driving 50% of overall growth. The EMS sector was again among the growth
leaders (PAT up 70% YoY), continuing with its impressive growth streak of the past
several quarters, even as the growth was lower than the MOFSL est. of 94% YoY.
Other sectors that posted strong growth included Capital Goods (+30%),
Consumer Durables (72%), and NBFCs – both lending (23%) & non-lending
(36%). Comparatively, the mid-cap technology sector was subdued, posting a
12% YoY growth (est. 19%), but better than the large-cap peers – which is in line
with our long-standing thesis that mid-cap IT is poised to grow structurally
above the large-cap IT names.
Some domestic-oriented Mid-cap sectors posted muted growth or missed
earnings. These included Real Estate (PAT dipped 36% YoY), which was much
weaker than large-cap peers and our muted expectations. Mid-cap private
banks were hit by multiple headwinds in the form of low growth and asset
quality woes, amplified by large derivatives losses at IndusInd Bank.
Consequently, the sector saw an aggregate net loss during the quarter. In
addition, the domestic consumption Mid-cap sectors, i.e., Autos and Consumers
were also muted during the quarter, reporting 6% YoY and 4% YoY PAT growth
respectively, albeit Autos were ahead of our beaten-down estimate.
While overall earnings have been ahead of estimates (a welcome departure
from the past 3 quarters’ outcome of broad earnings misses), the Mid-cap
segment has been an unexpected standout surprise – underlining its critical role
in throwing up growth leaders for future – thus broadening the market’s
investable set of companies.
June 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 3: Sector-wise 4QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Mid-cap Universe companies (INR b)
Sector
(no of companies)
Automobiles (9)
Capital Goods (2)
Cement (4)
Chemicals (3)
Consumer (5)
Consumer Durables (2)
EMS (2)
Financials (17)
Banks-Private (4)
Banks-PSU (3)
Insurance (2)
NBFC - Lending (4)
NBFC - Non Lending (4)
Healthcare (11)
Infrastructure (1)
Logistics (2)
Metals (4)
Oil & Gas (5)
Ex OMCs (4)
Real Estate (4)
Retail (4)
Technology (4)
Telecom (3)
Utilities (1)
Others (6)
MOFSL Mid-cap Univ. (89)
Ex Financials (72)
Ex Metals & Oil (80)
Ex OMCs (88)
Sales
EBITDA
PBT
PAT
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Mar-25
Mar-25
Mar-25
Mar-25
YoY Exp. (%)
YoY Exp. (%)
YoY
Exp. (%)
YoY Exp. (%)
362
6
1.2
58
3
7.4
48
2
9.0
36
6
10.8
50
11.4
-5.3
6
25.5
5.0
6
39.0
13.3
4
30.4
1.8
189
6
4.0
38
12
7.2
24
12
19.7
18
12
27.4
83
11.3
5.5
18
22.0
17.4
15
28.6
24.7
11
10.1
24.2
86
9
-1.5
16
3
-1.8
15
8
-2.2
11
4
-2.7
77
17.8
1.9
6
45.7
4.1
7
54.7
9.0
5
71.5
8.5
113
113
2.0
6
120
8.5
7
212
59.7
3
70
-12.1
670
4.8
0.2
343
2.4
-1.2
243
-5.2
-3.0
188
0.4
-3.2
124
-7
-4.7
41
-46
-28.9
-7
PL
-139.8
-5
PL
-131.9
253
1.3
-0.3
210
15.2
4.2
168
27.2
8.4
129
39.0
11.4
171
13
4.4
6
9
33.3
7
-4
-14.3
5
17
-26.4
91
11.9
-0.7
67
12.0
1.2
54
20.9
4.8
41
22.7
1.8
30
34
4.8
19
58
7.7
21
38
9.1
17
36
13.9
402
12.9
2.7
83
17.5
2.3
59
1.0
-0.7
44
17.9
2.0
21
4
11.2
10
12
9.4
3
-27
26.5
2
14
7.5
36
4.4
-7.5
11
0.4
-13.1
9
2.3
-14.2
7
10.8
-4.4
548
10.0
4.3
108
45.1
13.3
83
75.8
22.0
59
83.9
18.5
1,354
-5
12.6
102
8
33.3
86
10
49.2
67
5
53.8
259
-5.1
-1.6
44
-2.4
9.0
43
-4.7
17.1
33
-6.2
19.5
58
-6
-23.0
18
-23
-23.5
17
-26
-21.9
11
-36
-29.8
120
22.0
1.2
14
42.6
11.2
5
2,550.8
57.6
3
LP
35.3
133
22.9
-1.8
23
15.8
-2.8
19
14.3
-7.7
14
12.1
-5.8
193
6
0.6
69
11
0.8
-63
Loss
-3.8
-63
Loss
-5.6
38
72.6
5.9
7
94.0
38.0
6
96.9
35.9
6
108.0
44.2
320
13
-0.6
68
43
4.2
39
133
1.7
28
130
-2.6
6.4
3.9
12.5
4.7
14.7
8.5
19.1
8.7
4,853
1,004
625
455
6.7
4.5
18.5
8.1
32.3
17.3
37.1
18.9
4,183
661
383
268
11.6
0.3
9.7
0.9
8.7
1.3
15.1
1.2
2,951
794
456
329
10.0
0.7
12.1
2.5
13.7
4.9
19.2
4.6
3,758
947
582
422
MOFSL Small-cap universe PAT
growth YoY (%)
Small Cap
96
95
72
55
Small-caps suffer the most
35
2
-5
2
0 -5
-25
-16
-23
In a quarter marked by notable positive surprises across Large and Mid-cap
names, the Small-cap segment has been a laggard, recording not only weaker-
than-expected numbers but also a notable aggregate PAT decline of 16% YoY.
The MOFSL Small-cap Universe sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT were +5%/-6%/-22%/-
16% YoY (vs. our est. of +5%/-2%/-17%/-11%). Excluding Metals and O&G, the
MOFSL Universe companies recorded sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 6%/-
1%/-18%/-11% YoY (v/s est. of +8%/+5%/-10%/-5%) in 4QFY25.
The weak Small-cap earnings outcome was influenced materially by the
Financials sector, wherein most sub-segments posted not just lower-than-
expected numbers but also negative YoY PAT growth – underlining the
challenges for smaller BFSI players during the quarter. Small-cap NBFC-lending
sub-sector suffered the most, posting a 68% YoY dip in PAT. This was owing to
weak revenue growth and even weaker asset quality – particularly at the MFIs.
The aggregate outcome was weaker than our already glum expectations of -50%
PAT YoY. The dip in Small-cap NBFC-lending PAT accounted for over 92% of the
overall Small-cap YoY PAT decline- underscoring the intensity of weakness.
Small-cap private banks also registered a material YoY PAT decline of 21% YoY,
broadly replicating the Mid-cap peers in terms of weak growth and weaker asset
quality results. Additionally, the Insurance segment also underperformed
materially. Star Health registered a sharp bottom in a series of weak earnings for
June 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
the past several quarters, reporting losses at the operating level and a token
PAT (down 100% YoY).
Retail – another sector with large Small-cap representation in MOFSL coverage
(13 companies) – logged weak sales growth (5% YoY), EBITDA decline ( -9% YoY),
and an amplified PAT dip (-34% YoY) as several restaurant names posted net
losses. This was in stark contrast to Large-cap and Mid-cap retail peers, which
posted strong growth across metrics. Small-cap Oil & Gas also posted weak
profits (-51% YoY) which diverged from Large-cap and Mid-cap peers.
Small-cap Autos’ earnings were also weak at -23% YoY (in line with our estimate)
as reasonably strong revenue growth of 9% YoY was overshadowed by operating
margin pressures. In addition, the following Small-cap sectors also posted soft
4QFY25, adding to the overall weak outturn: Cement (+3% YoY), Consumer (+7%
YoY), and Technology (-1% YoY).
On the flip side, the outperforming Small-cap sectors posted very high growth,
highlighting the inherently volatile and barbell nature of the segment. The
notable growth leaders in the Small-cap segment included Capital Goods (+49%
YoY PAT, 10% ahead of our estimate), outperforming both large- and mid-cap
peers owing to margin expansion and lower depreciation charges. Chemicals,
which finally saw a turnaround in fortunes after several quarters of PAT decline,
posted a healthy 36% YoY PAT growth. Consumer Durables (+ 64% YoY PAT
growth), EMS (+52%), and Staffing (+61%YoY) also registered strong growth.
Small-cap Real Estate companies were strong at 37%YoY, in line with Large-cap
peers but better than Mid-cap peers which posted an earnings dip in 4QFY25.
Exhibit 4: Sector-wise 4QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Small-cap Universe companies (INR b)
Sector
(no of companies)
Mar-25
Sales
EBITDA
PBT
PAT
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Chg. % Var. over
Mar-25
Mar-25
Mar-25
YoY Exp. (%)
YoY Exp. (%)
YoY
Exp. (%)
YoY Exp. (%)
9
0.4
25
-11
1.3
14
-22
0.7
11
-23
3.8
15.2
2.2
15
31.8
1.7
11
47.2
5.8
8
48.9
10.3
-1
3.9
12
-5
21.8
5
-19
56.9
4
3
63.2
9.6
0.3
14
4.8
-9.6
8
-7.6
-21.1
6
35.5
-18.2
6
-3.1
7
4
-0.9
6
9
2.9
5
7
2.8
26.4
7.2
2
68.6
28.3
2
62.9
31.6
1
64.0
33.5
24
5.9
7
47
14.0
5
55
15.7
4
52
1.5
2.6
-1.0
87
-12.4
-9.7
38
-47.6
-23.6
30
-46.5
-20.8
-1
-0.9
30
-9
-3.5
7
-33
-30.7
6
-21
-14.7
12
-0.5
-3
Loss
31.2
0
PL
-100.5
0
-100
-99.6
-3.5
-2.7
43
-15.4
-14.6
14
-66.4
-33.9
10
-67.9
-35.3
12
1.6
17
1
-1.7
17
-5
1.4
13
-6
1.1
10.4
3.1
25
16.5
6.5
15
17.6
2.3
11
15.3
2.2
-16
-12.5
4
-17
-2.8
5
8
9.3
4
1
9.6
7.0
-3.3
5
16.4
-1.5
3
23.0
-1.8
3
15.1
-6.4
0
2.6
7
-3
-0.8
7
19
18.9
5
21
20.5
-2
9.9
19
-43
13.1
13
-52
21.0
9
-51
14.2
2.8
-27.6
8
14.6
-44.8
7
41.3
-40.5
7
37.4
-35.1
5
-1.1
14
-9
-3.1
4
-37
-7.6
3
-34
-1.1
-4.1
-13.7
3
-11.4
-31.4
2
41.8
-20.1
2
60.5
-24.5
6
-4.1
5
-4
-1.8
5
0
6.2
4
-1
7.5
51
2.2
6
83
5.8
3
-59
18.2
2
LP
40.5
7.4
-1.3
11
10.0
-9.1
9
20.4
-2.8
7
27.8
4.8
4.8
-0.3
276
-6.1
-4.5
164
-22.1
-6.5
125
-15.8
-4.9
5.1
-0.2
189
-2.8
-1.8
126
-8.9
0.3
96
2.3
1.4
6.2
-2.1
257
-1.2
-5.6
150
-17.6
-8.3
116
-10.7
-6.2
Automobiles (7)
197
Capital Goods (5)
153
Cement (4)
83
Chemicals (9)
90
Consumer (4)
42
Consumer Durables (1)
22
EMS (5)
58
Financials (28)
207
Banks-Private (4)
57
Insurance (1)
38
NBFC - Lending (13)
72
NBFC - Non Lending (10)
40
Healthcare (8)
110
Infrastructure (2)
28
Logistics (5)
53
Media (3)
43
Oil & Gas (4)
281
Real Estate (7)
47
Retail (13)
113
Staffing (4)
107
Technology (2)
33
Utilities (2)
6
Others (9)
73
MOFSL Small-cap Univ. (122) 1,747
Ex Financials (94)
1,540
Ex Metals & Oil (118)
1,466
LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss
June 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 5: PAT increased 10% YoY for
the MOFSL Universe
MOFSL Universe
55
37
18
15
1
20
6
29
10
2
-1
Exhibit 6: PAT was up 12% YoY for the
MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials
MOFSL Ex Financials
52
47
32
Exhibit 7: PAT rose 10% YoY for the
MOFSL Universe, sans Metals & O&G
MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil
58
6
10
10 5
-10
-22
6
5
-5 -9
4
12
23
36 33 32
38
23 23
17 14
11 10
10
Exhibit 8: PAT growth for the Nifty
Universe stood at 3% YoY
32
Nifty Universe
Exhibit 9: PAT for the Nifty Universe,
sans Financials, was up 7% YoY
Nifty Ex Financials
31
21 21
8
9
7
4 1
Exhibit 10: PAT grew 3% YoY for the
Nifty Universe, sans Metals & O&G
Nifty Ex Metals & Oil
52
35
33
31
24
13 12
15
22 23
19
14
9 7
4
18
3
1 1
5
7
17
24
24
18 17
13 11
6
3
Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio unfavorable for FY26E
For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio has improved
to 0.6x in 4QFY25 (from 0.3x in 3QFY25 for FY26E), with the earnings of 63
companies having been upgraded by >3%, while the earnings of 110 companies
have been downgraded by >3%.
The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was favorable, with 41% of the
companies exceeding our estimates, while 29% reported a miss at the PAT level.
Of the 25 sectors under our coverage, 13/9/3 sectors reported profits above/in
line/below our estimates.
Exhibit 11: The upgrade-to-downgrade ratio trend for the MOFSL Universe – recovered following a worst 3QFY25
2.7
1.7
Earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio
1.7
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.3
June 2025
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 12: Surprise/miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe at
1.4x in 4QFY25
MOFSL Universe PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)
3.4
2.4
Exhibit 13: Sectoral surprise/miss ratio at 4.3x in 4QFY25 for
the MOFSL Universe
MOFSL Sector PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)
5.0
4.3
2.8
2.3
1.21.1
1.5
1.0
1.8
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.7
0.90.6
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.0 0.8
2.3
1.2
1.7
1.3
0.5 0.5
0.9 1.2
0.9
1.2
0.4 0.3
Exhibit 14: Two and three-year profit CAGR for the MOFSL Universe
EBIDTA (INR b)
CAGR (%)
PBT (INR b)
CAGR (%)
PAT (INR b)
CAGR (%)
Sector
4QFY22 4QFY234QFY25 2-year 3-year 4QFY22 4QFY234QFY25 2-year 3-year 4QFY22 4QFY234QFY25 2-year 3-year
Automobiles
235
329
460
18
25
118
214
369
31
46
86
186
281
23
48
Capital Goods
100
110
148
16
14
91
98
141
20
16
63
69
100
20
17
Cement
88
83
117
19
10
63
55
71
13
4
43
38
50
15
5
Chemicals
33
37
31
-8
-2
28
30
23
-13
-7
22
25
17
-17
-8
Consumer
160
189
203
4
8
152
179
191
3
8
116
134
142
3
7
Cons Durables
14
17
26
26
22
13
16
25
26
23
10
11
18
28
24
EMS
4
6
13
42
44
3
5
12
58
56
2
4
7
35
42
Financials
1,179 1,494 1,844
11
16
856
1,232 1,655
16
25
634
1,016 1,289
13
27
Banks-Private
456
565
676
9
14
380
489
541
5
13
289
369
410
5
12
Banks-PSU
451
567
672
9
14
200
395
547
18
40
152
300
412
17
39
Insurance
29
82
77
-3
39
78
95
247
61
47
40
154
212
17
75
NBFC-Lending
225
260
383
21
19
180
230
284
11
16
140
175
224
13
17
NBFC-Non Lend 18
21
36
31
27
19
22
37
30
26
14
17
30
32
29
Healthcare
128
143
217
23
19
109
106
177
29
18
79
81
137
30
20
Infrastructure
13
13
14
6
4
8
7
8
9
-1
6
5
6
13
1
Logistics
39
47
66
19
19
26
31
46
23
21
22
29
41
17
23
Media
11
6
7
4
-14
9
4
7
28
-11
7
3
5
32
-10
Metals
745
509
601
9
-7
570
341
425
12
-9
414
242
305
12
-10
Oil & Gas
828
939
996
3
6
596
680
654
-2
3
448
534
473
-6
2
Real Estate
29
36
48
17
19
23
31
47
23
26
25
32
40
12
17
Retail
37
41
60
21
17
23
22
33
22
13
18
17
24
20
10
Staffing
3
4
3
-5
-3
2
2
2
20
4
2
2
2
12
2
Technology
367
413
442
3
6
341
382
416
4
7
263
287
311
4
6
Telecom
263
281
383
17
13
26
11
58
125
30
-24
-19
5
LP
LP
Utilities
214
242
262
4
7
113
135
158
8
12
117
102
114
6
-1
Others
53
97
143
21
39
14
49
73
21
74
7
41
58
19
102
MOFSL Univ.
4,546 5,034 6,082
10
10
3,184 3,631 4,591
12
13
2,359 2,838 3,425
10
13
Exhibit 15: Sales for the MOFSL Universe up 6% YoY (est. 4%)
49
18
2
-4
-3
29 27 25
41
29
17
12
5 3 6 8 7 5 6
Exhibit 16: EBITDA for the MOFSL Universe up 9% YoY (est. 4%)
50
41
23
15
21
12
12
7
27 29
14 11
6
1
8 11
4 1 9
9
-28
-5 -13
June 2025
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 17: PAT for the MOFSL Universe up 10% YoY (est.
2%)
127
101
36
47
23
18
15
1 6
20
55
37 29
10 2
-1
6
Exhibit 18: EBITDA margin, excluding Financials, expanded
slightly by 60bp YoY to 17.6%
21
10
-23
-40
.
.
Exhibit 19: MOFSL Universe (ex-Nifty) posted a profit growth of 21% YoY
164
81
48
147
59
16
10
-18
-16
-4
157
68
31
52
4
-6
-13
9
21
-31
-45
Exhibit 20: Sales growth for the MOFSL Universe, excluding
Nifty companies, stood at 5% YoY
52
49
Exhibit 21: EBITDA was up 14% YoY for the MOFSL Universe,
excluding Nifty companies
72
58
55 52
25
6 7
0
-10-12
11
8
-3 -7
11
14
31
30 28
18
2
-5
-30
-3
32
18
10
1
-1
-14-12
6 8 7 6
4
5
33
38
19
Margin contracts owing to a high base
Sales for the MOFSL Universe companies grew 6% YoY (in line). Excluding Metals
and O&G, sales growth was in line at 8% YoY (in line).
Sectoral sales growth: EMS (71%), Consumer Durables (21%), NBFC Non-Lending
(20%), Telecom (19%), and Retail (17%).
The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded marginally by
60bp YoY to 17.6%.
Gross margins for almost half of the sectors contracted. In 4QFY25, 7 of the 15
major sectors under MOFSL Coverage posted a contraction in gross margin YoY.
June 2025
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 22: Gross margin contracted in several sectors due to a high base
Change in
4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25 GM bps
YoY
Infrastructure
36.0
40.7
71.4
39.1
36.6
36.7
40.2
51.7
33.0
39.5
42.2
42.0
43.0
997
Others
41.2
43.7
39.0
43.9
41.8
47.6
42.1
43.5
43.5
46.6
42.0
47.9
47.2
366
Oil & Gas
21.8
16.8
17.0
18.4
22.5
25.3
25.0
22.2
22.7
20.9
22.4
22.8
24.4
174
Healthcare
62.8
62.4
64.0
64.0
63.7
65.1
65.6
66.0
67.2
68.2
68.2
67.6
68.7
147
Real Estate
40.7
44.0
52.2
48.7
43.0
47.9
51.5
53.3
48.8
51.6
48.6
50.3
49.9
116
Logistics
18.5
51.5
49.9
48.4
50.8
52.7
51.7
52.0
52.2
51.8
52.7
52.4
53.2
98
Utilities
1.2
27.3
27.4
33.2
31.4
47.9
47.0
49.0
50.0
47.0
50.4
49.6
50.8
84
Consumer Durables 14.8
18.8
18.5
19.5
18.4
25.4
27.2
26.6
25.3
25.1
25.7
26.6
25.6
30
Cement
59.7
59.7
56.3
56.1
55.0
62.6
57.4
60.4
57.7
57.8
63.9
56.6
57.7
-2
Technology
34.5
33.1
33.6
34.4
34.5
33.9
34.0
34.4
34.3
35.1
33.7
34.1
34.0
-34
Automobiles
29.3
31.6
32.0
33.3
34.0
34.4
34.0
35.2
35.9
36.2
35.0
35.6
35.2
-70
Retail
32.3
32.6
32.2
31.2
31.0
30.1
29.7
30.3
30.2
30.0
29.2
28.8
29.5
-76
Metals
54.1
56.2
47.9
51.1
54.1
52.8
49.9
55.5
53.8
52.7
51.5
53.4
52.7
-114
Consumer
48.3
47.3
48.3
49.6
50.8
51.2
52.2
52.5
53.2
52.4
51.3
51.1
51.4
-181
Chemicals
53.8
53.3
51.0
54.8
54.3
54.6
53.3
54.1
54.2
52.6
53.0
53.9
51.9
-229
Source: 216 companies that form part of the MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials, Telecom, Media, and Staffing
Exhibit 23: Several sectors recovered YoY in terms of operating margins
Mar-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Contributions of Metals and Automobiles in the profit pool improve
The BFSI contribution to the overall MOFSL profit pool accounted for more than
one-third of the profits. The contribution declined to 37.6% and was the lowest
in the last five quarters.
The Metals contribution to the profit pool saw an improvement to 8.9% in
4QFY25 – this was at a three-quarter high.
The Consumer contribution to the profit pool slipped to a new low of 4.1% in
4QFY25.
Exhibit 25: IT sector’s contribution to the overall profit pool
had been at a new low
Technology
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
10.1
9.9
10.1
10.6
10.1
9.1
PAT
(INR b)
Exhibit 24: Financials’ contribution was down in 4Q; it
rd
accounted for more than 1/3 of the overall profit pool
Financials
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
40.9
38.9
35.8
34.4
35.6
36.6
39.0
PAT
(INR b)
38.3
37.6
9.5
9.7
9.3
June 2025
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 26: O&G’s PAT contribution to the overall profit pool
has been stable over the last few quarters
Oil & Gas
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
22.1
18.8
16.3
15.9
12.7
13.0
21.7
8.5
8.0
8.3
6.7
6.7
7.0
PAT
(INR b)
Exhibit 27: Metals’ PAT contribution to the MOFSL Universe
increased for the third successive quarter in 4QFY25
Metals
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
PAT
(INR b)
8.9
8.0
9.1
13.7
13.8
Exhibit 28: Auto sector’s contribution to the overall profit
pool saw an uptick in 4QFY25
Automobiles
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
PAT
(INR b)
8.2
7.7
Exhibit 29: Consumer sector’s contribution dipped in 4QFY25
– to a new low
Consumer
Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.6
5.2
5.3
5.1
4.6
4.1
PAT
(INR b)
8.4
7.7
6.5
6.6
8.4
8.2
7.8
PAT growth YoY in FY25 (%)
FY25 PAT growth YoY (%)
The FY25 snapshot: Small-cap profits dip
11.6
4.4
4.6
MOFSL
Univ.
-17.3
Large Mid Cap Small
Cap
Cap
The MOFSL Universe delivered a 4.4% YoY earnings growth in FY25. Excluding
Metals, and O&G, it reported an 11.1% YoY earnings growth.
We categorized
the coverage stocks based on market capitalization criteria into large-cap, mid-
cap, and small-cap segments.
Notably, our large-cap universe saw a 4.6% YoY
earnings growth in FY25, while mid-cap delivered an 11.6% YoY growth, and
small-cap posted a decline of 17.3% YoY in FY25.
During FY25, out of 25 sectors under our coverage, 19 sectors saw a YoY growth
in PAT, while six saw a decline. EMS (+67%), Real Estate (+42%), NBFC Non-
Lending (+37%), Consumer Durables (+28%), Staffing (+21%), Healthcare (+21%),
Logistics (+19%), and Capital Goods (+19%) were top gainers. Conversely,
Telecom (a loss of INR15b), Cement (-32%), Oil & Gas (-27%), Chemicals (-5%),
Media (-3%), and Consumer (-1%) were the laggards.
June 2025
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 30: Sector-wise FY25 performance (%) – Telecom, Cement, and Oil & Gas drag
67
42
37
28
21
21
19
19
19
19
FY25 PAT growth YoY (%)
17
11
9
8
7
6
4
4
3
3
-1
-3
-5
-27 -32
Loss
Exhibit 31: Sector-wise contribution to FY25 earnings growth (%) – PSU Banks take the lion’s share
47
29
22
17
17
17
13
13
10
FY25 contribution to PAT growth (%)
9
8
7
6
5
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-12
-114
Exhibit 32: Nifty-50 stocks – FY25 earnings growth YoY (%)
FY25 PAT growth YoY (%)
6
June 2025
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Performance highlights of the Nifty constituents in 4QFY25
The top 5 stocks account for ~137% of the incremental profit YoY
Sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth for Nifty constituents was in line at +7%/+7%/
+9%/+3% YoY in 4QFY25. Excluding Financials, profits for Nifty constituents were
up 7% YoY (vs. our est. of +5% YoY).
Among Nifty constituents, 30% exceeded our PAT estimates, while 26% missed
our estimates.
Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Coal India, Larsen & Toubro, Wipro, Tata
Steel, Reliance Industries, Dr. Reddy’s Lab, Bharat Electronics, Eicher Motors,
Tech Mahindra, Trent, Maruti Suzuki, and Apollo Hospitals delivered higher-
than-estimated earnings.
In contrast, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Grasim Industries,
Asian Paints, Eternal, SBI Life Insurance, NTPC, HDFC Life Insurance, Titan, JSW
Steel, and Bharti Airtel missed our profit estimates.
Eight Nifty companies witnessed earnings upgrades of over 3% in their FY26 EPS
estimates, while 16 companies witnessed downgrades of over 3%.
Exhibit 34: Nifty EBITDA up 7% YoY (est. 6%)
44
Exhibit 33: Nifty sales up 7% YoY (in line) in 4QFY25
46
36
27
25
18
3
-4
-24
-3
23
28
18
13
7 7 7 8 8 4 7
25
22
7
0
14
5
17 16
19
14
11 14 11
18
9
13
9 8
9
7
-13
Exhibit 35: Nifty PAT up 3% YoY (est. 2%)
115
Exhibit 36: Nifty EBITDA margin (ex-Financials) expanded
40bp YoY to 20.9%
76
40
9 18
27 24 32
13 12 15
22 23 19 14
9 7
4
3
-20
-36
June 2025
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 37: BFSI, Metals, and Oil & Gas to drive FY26E earnings for the Nifty
Sector
Automobiles
BFSI
Capital Goods
Cement
Consumer
Healthcare
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty
FY22
75
1,433
109
130
304
143
59
926
998
24
919
35
304
-4
5,455
FY23
287
2,026
133
115
366
164
77
540
1,069
37
977
82
321
17
6,212
PAT (INR b)
FY24
FY25
621
666
2,557
2,827
170
199
134
110
416
390
204
234
89
108
595
600
1,261
1,081
45
53
1,009
1,101
113
176
341
352
39
47
7,594
7,944
FY26E
672
3,084
236
146
426
260
137
771
1,212
67
1,164
276
419
51
8,920
FY27E
736
3,625
290
182
469
284
159
954
1,353
81
1,259
383
444
70
10,290
FY22
-57
37
23
31
11
31
30
169
55
198
16
Loss
7
-259
40
FY23
281
41
22
-11
20
15
30
-42
7
54
6
Loss
6
-487
14
Growth YoY (%)
FY24
FY25
FY26E
117
7
1
26
11
9
27
17
19
16
-18
33
14
-6
9
24
15
11
16
22
26
10
1
29
18
-14
12
24
17
27
3
9
6
LP
55
57
6
3
19
123
22
9
22
5
12
FY27E
10
18
23
25
10
9
16
24
12
20
8
39
6
37
15
Exhibit 38: Sectoral upgrades/downgrades for the MOFSL Universe
PAT (INR b) - preview
Sector
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Automobiles
958
1,031
1,135
Capital Goods
291
359
427
Cement
167
236
305
Chemicals
64
89
111
Consumer
580
653
725
Consumer Durables
51
60
73
EMS
18
27
40
Financials
4,824
5,463
6,341
Banks-Private
1,752
1,938
2,283
Banks-PSU
1,599
1,739
1,976
Insurance
534
601
675
NBFC - Lending
818
1,041
1,239
NBFC - Non Lending
122
143
168
Healthcare
516
609
693
Infrastructure
18
26
31
Logistics
145
177
215
Media
23
27
31
Metals
972
1,334
1,589
Oil & Gas
1,645
1,935
2,093
Excl. OMCs
1,368
1,588
1,743
Real Estate
124
184
204
Retail
105
142
173
Staffing
10
13
15
Technology
1,210
1,336
1,456
Telecom
16
66
210
Utilities
444
535
591
Others
145
261
343
MOFSL Universe
12,327 14,563 16,800
Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit
PAT (INR b) - review
FY25
FY26E FY27E
975
1,011
1,143
297
353
433
170
236
305
65
85
107
580
651
725
53
62
75
18
27
39
4,893
5,410
6,319
1,774
1,943
2,318
1,597
1,680
1,898
571
628
718
828
1,016
1,216
124
143
169
521
596
679
18
24
30
145
181
213
23
28
31
1,014
1,264
1,548
1,641
1,853
2,031
1,330
1,499
1,666
139
190
212
105
139
170
8
10
12
1,213
1,297
1,413
-29
71
230
432
526
575
159
228
320
12,439 14,242 16,609
Upgrade/downgrade (%)
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
1.8
-1.9
0.7
2.1
-1.8
1.3
1.6
0.2
-0.2
1.2
-4.2
-3.6
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
4.2
4.2
3.5
-1.9
-1.3
-1.3
1.4
-1.0
-0.4
1.2
0.2
1.5
-0.1
-3.4
-4.0
6.9
4.5
6.3
1.2
-2.4
-1.8
1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.1
-2.2
-2.0
1.8
-7.6
-4.0
-0.5
2.4
-1.2
4.1
1.8
2.2
4.3
-5.2
-2.6
-0.3
-4.2
-3.0
-2.8
-5.6
-4.5
11.4
3.0
3.9
-0.5
-2.4
-1.5
-20.5
-19.2
-20.0
0.2
-2.9
-3.0
PL
6.7
9.6
-2.8
-1.6
-2.7
9.9
-12.5
-6.7
0.9
-2.2
-1.1
Growth YoY (%)
FY25 FY26E FY27E
6.9
3.7
13.0
22.1 18.9
22.6
-27.2 39.1
29.0
-5.2
31.3
25.7
-1.7
12.2
11.4
27.9 17.0
20.8
66.8 50.5
46.3
13.4 10.6
16.8
6.4
9.5
19.3
23.4
5.2
12.9
19.1 10.0
14.3
6.3
22.8
19.7
31.3 15.5
18.3
20.9 14.3
13.9
3.1
33.9
25.7
19.2 25.3
17.3
-3.3
18.2
12.7
17.0 24.7
22.5
-31.7 12.9
9.6
-15.0 12.7
11.1
42.8 36.9
11.5
10.0 32.4
22.9
47.8 30.8
18.2
8.6
7.0
8.9
Loss
LP
225.3
6.9
21.9
9.3
12.6 43.1
40.2
3.6
14.5
16.6
June 2025
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 39: Nifty delivered a 3% YoY profit growth in 4QFY25
Sales
EBITDA
PBT
PAT
EBITDA Margin
Chg. Chg.
Chg. Chg.
Chg. Chg.
Chg. Chg.
Chg.
Mar
Var. Mar
Var. Mar
Var. Mar
Var. Mar
YoY QoQ
YoY QoQ
YoY QoQ
YoY QoQ
YoY
2025
(%) 2025
(%) 2025
(%) 2025
(%) 2025 (%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
bp
1 270
10 88
4
8
0
7
NA 37
-3 15
0
66
1
50
1
13
3
21
-1 47
5
47
0
19
0
-7
3
2
0
-13
-5
5
5
-3
-1
-4
0
0
5
3
2
-4
0
9
NA
1
6
-5
0
2
-1
2
0
0
-2
0
-2
7
0
3
-14
1
-1
80
82
28
177
64
14
166
83
15
98
112
43
65
46
265
14
25
33
36
438
4
92
113
17
39
32
20
38
44
17
-1
24
11
16
6
42
33
24
13
22
17
4
12
-2
22
29
11
5
11
7
12
-9
4
6
12
2
3
18
1
-1
10
10
17
1
-22
21
-23
-8
4
5
-6
0
5
3
2
31
69
5
14
48
28
6
-20
-4
-2
6
-5
60
6
-4
-5
-8
-2
0
13
8
-6
-11
2
2
0
-5
26
33
6
10
-12
0
-56
-18
PL
5
6
0
14
0
11
NA
-12
2
-6
-3
-6
-4
12
3
-2
-1
35
4
-3
1
-3
-6
9
-1
1
1
1
0
4
2
3
-9
0
1
NA
1
-4
14
-4
1
-2
-8
9
14
-3
5
-6
5
-58
-39
PL
1
0
97
65
5
5
53
15
25
34
14
19
47
33
15
56
75
28
168
20
5
119
60
12
93
127
28
57
31
233
14
27
33
35
291
4
51
81
8
94
67
164
48
12
248
46
5
12
88
1
-3
-30
2,841
2,224
86
58
40
44
656
26
6
27
13
31
23
27
16
11
19
19
17
-4
8
30
9
23
12
10
5
9
-2
48
7
6
12
5
5
1
2
19
1
0
-1
-3
-4
-1
-8
-12
-5
-26
-32
-40
PL
PL
9
11
4
23
-5
-27
820
-19
-16
8
10
10
7
-16
14
-2
41
62
7
58
9
54
3
-26
-3
8
0
-6
84
7
-9
-4
-8
1
2
5
6
22
47
-5
16
-2
27
NA
-6
20
-9
2
27
9
3
11
52
53
4
3
9
12
17
31
14
15
36
24
12
77
66
54
41
41
41
40
34
27
27
26
22
20
19
19
18
18
18
16
15
14
13
12
12
10
8
8
7
6
6
3
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-4
-4
-10
-14
-18
-31
-35
-78
PL
PL
3
3
-5
40
5
-25
1,395
-10
128
15
16
17
6
-18
19
6
53
60
7
96
15
63
8
-30
0
13
3
-6
83
5
-10
-3
5
-1
5
7
11
8
48
-11
23
11
31
NA
4
160
-1
6
30
9
3
17
1
6
23
5
-11
-15
6
-11
-5
2
11
-1
1
2
3
3
3
-4
2
8
NA
-1
-10
-6
56.4
13.6
13.8
16.0
13.8
22.8
11.7
59.0
24.0
24.1
20.7
14.9
14.0
81.2
11.0
30.6
83.3
14.2
5.8
13.9
27.6
10.3
23.9
29.7
77.9
21.5
20.0
82.8
14.2
20.2
25.6
23.1
16.8
139.4
84.0
25.6
6.9
77.9
34.7
26.2
10.5
25.6
73.1
75.1
13.5
17.2
54.3
1.2
2.5
-16.1
25.7
29.0
4.9
1.7
0.8
1.0
5.0
1.5
0.4
0.3
-2.5
-0.8
1.0
1.8
3.0
1.2
0.2
3.8
4.6
1.0
-0.2
-0.3
2.2
0.8
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.1
-17.9
0.0
0.1
0.9
-0.1
-1.2
26.5
1.2
-1.0
0.9
-2.6
-2.2
-1.8
-1.8
0.1
4.1
-3.9
-2.6
-2.2
4.1
-1.2
-5.3
-92.0
-0.1
-0.2
Company
High PAT growth
Bharti Airtel
479
27
6
Hindalco
649
16
11
Apollo Hospitals
56
13
1
Trent
41
29
-9
Adani Ent.
270
-8
18
Cipla
67
9
-5
Tata Steel
562
-4
5
Adani Ports
85
23
7
Eicher Motors
52
23
5
Dr Reddy’ s Labs
85
20
3
Wipro
225
1
1
M&M
314
25
3
Tech Mahindra
134
4
1
Med/Low PAT growth
Bajaj Finance
98
22
5
Larsen & Toubro
744
11
15
Bharat Electronics
91
7
58
ICICI Bank
212
11
4
JSW Steel
448
-3
8
HDFC Life Insur.
238
16
42
Tata Motors
1,195 0
5
Bajaj Finserv
302
12
17
Titan Company
149
19
-16
Infosys
409
8
-2
Coal India
378
-1
3
Shriram Finance
56
9
0
HCL Technologies
302
6
1
Ultratech Cement
231
13
30
HDFC Bank
321
10
5
Hero Motocorp
99
4
-3
Bajaj Auto
121
6
-5
Sun Pharma
128
8
-2
Hind. Unilever
157
3
-1
Reliance Inds.
2,614 11
9
Jio Financial
3
-5
28
Power Grid Corp.
110
-1
9
NTPC
439
3
6
SBI Life Insurance
240
-5
-4
Negative PAT Growth
Axis Bank
138
6
2
ITC
188
5
0
TCS
645
5
1
Maruti Suzuki
407
6
6
Nestle
55
4
15
State Bank
428
3
3
Kotak Mah. Bank
73
5
1
Tata Consumer
46
17
4
Asian Paints
84
-4
-2
ONGC
350
1
4
Eternal
58
64
8
Grasim Inds
89
32
10
IndusInd Bank
30
-43
-42
Nifty Universe
14,694 7
6
Ex Metals & Oil
9,693 7
5
Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit
-7 45
4
51
27 21
4 126
-25 15
42
5
7
89
-12 24
7
9
0
68
8
96
-4 21
1
43
-2 25
4 176
4
11
3
20
-5 29
3
26
5 194
NA 3
-2 43
17 50
-4
8
108
2
65
-2
169 -2
43
-9
14
5
313
9
55
0
6
-1
14 -15
190
9
1
-16
2
-58
-5
PL
3,771 7
2,812 7
12
-2 71
3
0
51
-2
-3 123
4
6
37
30
6
9
10
1 186
4
-7 36
19
1
3
-19 -15 9
-20 -20 64
-22 -40 0
Loss Loss -2
PL Loss -23
6
0 2,046
8
0 1,606
13
-1
7
0
-1
-2
5
6
28
0
10
0
7
-6
10
0
-22 -15
-22 -22
-34 -78
Loss Loss
PL Loss
7
1
7
-1
June 2025
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
MOFSL coverage revision from our preview stance
Cuts in mid-caps and small-caps severe
MOFSL Universe experienced a cut of 2.2%/1.1% for FY26E/FY27:
Our MOFSL
Universe witnessed a cut of 2.2% for FY26, led by Oil & Gas, Metals, Technology,
PSU Banks, NBFCs, and Automobiles.
Further, our mid-cap and small-cap universes experienced a bigger cut at 3.8%
each in FY26E. The large-cap universe witnessed a cut of 1.8%.
Exhibit 40: Earnings revisions of MOFSL Universe from our preview (4QFY25)
Sector
Automobiles
Banks-Private
Banks-PSU
Insurance
NBFC - Lending
NBFC - Non Lending
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
EMS
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Staffing
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
MOFSL Universe
Large Cap Universe
Mid Cap Universe
Small Cap Universe
PAT (INR b) @ Preview
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
958
1,031
1,135
1,752
1,938
2,283
1,599
1,739
1,976
534
601
675
818
1,041
1,239
122
143
168
291
359
427
167
236
305
64
89
111
580
653
725
51
60
73
18
27
40
516
609
693
18
26
31
145
177
215
23
27
31
972
1,334
1,589
1,645
1,935
2,093
124
184
204
105
142
173
10
13
15
1,210
1,336
1,456
16
66
210
444
535
591
145
261
343
12,327
14,563
16,800
10,227
11,805
13,396
1,613
2,040
2,497
487
718
907
PAT (INR b) @ Review
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
975
1,011
1,143
1,774
1,943
2,318
1,597
1,680
1,898
571
628
718
828
1,016
1,216
124
143
169
297
353
433
170
236
305
65
85
107
580
651
725
53
62
75
18
27
39
521
596
679
18
24
30
145
181
213
23
28
31
1,014
1,264
1,548
1,641
1,853
2,031
139
190
212
105
139
170
8
10
12
1,213
1,297
1,413
-29
71
230
432
526
575
159
228
320
12,439
14,242
16,609
10,328
11,588
13,276
1,632
1,963
2,447
479
691
886
FY25
1.8
1.2
-0.1
6.9
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.6
1.2
-0.1
4.2
-1.9
1.1
1.8
-0.5
4.1
4.3
-0.3
11.4
-0.5
-20.5
0.2
-274.7
-2.8
9.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
-1.6
% Revision
FY26E
-1.9
0.2
-3.4
4.5
-2.4
-0.4
-1.8
0.2
-4.2
-0.4
4.2
-1.3
-2.2
-7.6
2.4
1.8
-5.2
-4.2
3.0
-2.4
-19.2
-2.9
6.7
-1.6
-12.5
-2.2
-1.8
-3.8
-3.8
FY27E
0.7
1.5
-4.0
6.3
-1.8
0.6
1.3
-0.2
-3.6
0.1
3.5
-1.3
-2.0
-4.0
-1.2
2.2
-2.6
-3.0
3.9
-1.5
-20.0
-3.0
9.6
-2.7
-6.7
-1.1
-0.9
-2.0
-2.3
June 2025
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Nifty exits FY25 with 1% EPS growth
Nifty EPS for FY25 ended at INR1,013 (+1% YoY) over a high base of FY24 (+24%
YoY) as the earnings normalized and tracked the revenue trend.
Nifty EPS cut by 1.9%/1.1% for FY26E/FY27E:
The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26
was cut by 1.9% to INR1,135, largely owing to SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, Tata
Motors, and TCS. FY27E EPS was also reduced by 1.1% to INR1,314 (from
INR1,328) due to downgrades in SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, TCS, and Reliance
Industries.
EPS Upgrade / Downgrade (%)
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
-2.1
9.7
15.6
8.1
7.1
8.0
-16.9
6.6
1.3
6.4
5.8
4.2
-0.3
4.6
0.5
0.4
4.4
5.8
0.9
3.4
4.8
5.2
3.0
2.0
17.1
2.5
2.1
0.7
2.2
2.2
6.8
1.7
-0.1
-0.6
1.4
1.7
0.5
1.1
1.2
0.6
1.0
2.8
-1.2
0.8
0.0
2.2
0.8
2.3
-0.3
0.7
0.0
-0.1
0.6
-0.3
1.0
0.5
-1.7
-6.4
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
-0.4
-1.0
4.1
-0.6
2.2
-4.4
-1.1
-2.0
-3.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.3
-1.4
0.0
-6.9
-1.5
-2.0
-2.1
-1.8
-3.2
0.3
-1.8
-1.5
2.1
-1.9
-2.2
0.5
-2.4
-2.8
1.5
-2.6
-2.7
0.9
-3.3
-3.9
-3.6
-3.9
0.0
-0.5
-4.1
-4.3
0.8
-4.1
-0.7
-4.2
-4.5
-3.1
2.7
-4.6
-2.0
3.1
-4.7
-4.3
1.0
-5.8
0.3
-0.5
-6.6
-3.7
33.1
-7.4
-10.1
-2.1
-7.4
-7.9
-4.8
-8.5
-5.9
2.3
-11.6
-5.3
-14.6
-13.4
-9.2
-45.9
-45.6
-45.2
-24.5
-53.9
-29.9
-0.4
-1.9
-1.1
EPS Growth (%)
FY26E
FY27E
18.0
18.9
15.5
21.9
57.2
32.1
-7.1
6.0
26.0
16.1
23.0
13.4
9.1
16.4
10.2
12.2
-1.3
18.6
6.4
8.3
4.4
-6.7
15.2
11.3
7.7
8.0
9.2
17.3
26.7
18.2
28.5
23.2
20.2
18.6
25.5
25.4
20.3
26.6
42.5
25.8
7.7
9.1
27.0
26.5
21.2
13.3
8.9
11.4
6.4
17.8
14.1
4.8
22.8
6.9
7.8
9.5
15.6
11.7
4.8
7.5
1.4
13.6
-5.7
10.7
12.3
18.8
6.2
7.5
21.7
17.4
20.6
13.6
5.3
14.4
-3.7
4.3
20.2
23.0
21.3
23.2
193.5
41.1
3.7
15.2
217.5
57.9
-19.6
2.2
5.9
11.4
33.8
28.8
78.2
201.4
12.0
15.7
Exhibit 41: FY26E EPS revisions – Eight Nifty constituents saw upgrades of over 3%, while 16 witnessed downgrades of over 3%
Company
SBI Life Insurance
Bharat Electronics
Bharti Airtel
Hindalco
Adani Ports
Mahindra & Mahindra
HDFC Bank
Bajaj Auto
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Hero MotoCorp
Dr Reddy’ s Labs
Nestle
ITC
ICICI Bank
Titan Company
Trent
Shriram Finance
Bajaj Finance
Apollo Hospitals
Ultratech Cement
HCL Technologies
Tech Mahindra
HDFC Life Insur.
Maruti Suzuki
Axis Bank
Power Grid Corp.
NTPC
Hind. Unilever
Reliance Inds.
Infosys
Eicher Motors
Cipla
Asian Paints
TCS
Tata Consumer
Sun Pharma
Coal India
Wipro
Larsen & Toubro
Grasim Industries
Tata Steel
State Bank
JSW Steel
Tata Motors
ONGC
IndusInd Bank
Eternal
Nifty (50)
Current EPS (INR)
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
24.1
28.5
33.8
7.2
8.4
10.2
30.3
47.6
62.9
74.8
69.5
73.7
50.2
63.2
73.4
98.7
121.5
137.8
88.7
96.7
112.6
299.5
330.1
370.4
110.4
108.9
129.1
230.3
245.1
265.3
67.3
70.3
65.6
32.0
36.8
41.0
16.0
17.2
18.6
66.8
72.9
85.5
42.3
53.5
63.3
43.2
55.5
68.3
44.0
52.9
62.7
270.0
338.8
424.8
100.6
121.0
153.2
207.6
295.8
372.1
63.9
68.8
75.0
47.9
60.9
77.0
8.4
10.2
11.5
443.9
483.5
538.5
85.4
90.9
107.1
16.7
19.0
20.0
20.3
25.0
26.7
44.3
47.8
52.3
51.5
59.5
66.5
63.8
66.9
71.9
172.7
175.0
198.8
62.8
59.2
65.5
42.5
47.7
56.7
134.2
142.5
153.1
14.0
17.0
20.0
47.1
56.8
64.5
57.4
60.4
69.1
12.5
12.1
12.6
105.9
127.3
156.7
74.1
89.9
110.7
3.4
9.9
13.9
86.9
90.1
103.8
15.6
49.4
78.0
63.2
50.8
52.0
30.6
32.4
36.0
33.1
44.2
57.0
0.6
1.0
3.2
1,013
1,135
1,314
FY25
27.4
31.5
54.2
63.9
21.6
11.3
10.7
11.8
20.5
12.6
6.1
-22.1
-2.5
14.4
7.6
47.7
14.9
15.5
61.1
-15.1
10.3
17.1
14.9
5.6
5.9
-0.3
6.2
1.4
0.0
0.8
18.0
19.6
-26.7
6.3
-2.4
13.4
-5.5
22.8
12.3
-22.5
41.5
15.6
-57.7
7.7
-31.9
-71.4
44.2
1.2
June 2025
18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 42: We estimate a 14% CAGR for the Nifty free-float PAT over FY25–27
Company
High PAT Growth (20%+)
Eternal
JSW Steel
Tata Steel
Bharti Airtel
Ultratech Cement
IndusInd Bank
Bajaj Finserv
Tech Mahindra
Trent
Bajaj Finance
Apollo Hospitals
Titan Company
Grasim Industries
Larsen & Toubro
Adani Ports
Tata Consumer
Medium PAT Growth (0-20%)
Shriram Finance
Bharat Electronics
SBI Life Insurance
Mahindra & Mahindra
HDFC Life Insur.
Sun Pharma
Asian Paints
NTPC
Reliance Inds.
ICICI Bank
Nestle
HDFC Bank
Axis Bank
Bajaj Auto
Maruti Suzuki
Coal India
Power Grid Corp.
State Bank
Hind. Unilever
ONGC
HCL Technologies
Kotak Mahindra Bank
ITC
Hero MotoCorp
Eicher Motors
TCS
Infosys
Cipla
Wipro
PAT de-growth (<0%)
Hindalco
Dr Reddy’ s Labs
Tata Motors
Nifty (PAT free float)
Sales
CAGR %
25-27
16
63
19
10
15
15
5
34
5
24
26
15
16
11
14
16
8
5
19
17
16
13
16
10
9
7
3
13
9
14
12
13
12
11
3
10
8
-8
7
14
7
8
12
4
5
7
1
4
5
4
3
7
EBITDA Margin (%)
FY25
24
3
14
12
54
17
56
73
13
16
83
14
10
4
10
60
14
28
74
29
7
15
80
27
18
29
17
83
24
82
77
20
12
33
85
66
24
15
22
74
34
14
25
26
24
26
20
13
13
26
13
25
FY26E
25
3
17
14
56
20
54
63
15
16
81
14
11
6
10
60
15
30
75
28
7
15
79
28
18
29
20
85
24
81
79
20
11
34
90
64
23
19
22
74
35
14
24
28
25
24
20
13
13
26
12
27
FY27E
26
5
19
15
57
21
53
61
18
16
80
14
11
7
10
61
15
31
76
28
7
14
80
29
19
30
21
86
25
82
80
20
11
35
89
65
24
19
22
74
35
14
24
28
25
24
21
13
13
25
12
28
EBITDA
CAGR %
25-27
22
111
41
25
18
29
2
21
22
25
24
18
18
56
15
16
13
11
20
16
17
12
17
13
14
10
13
16
11
14
14
12
10
15
5
9
8
3
8
14
8
7
10
7
7
4
2
1
2
0
0
12
PAT (INR b)
FY25
1,031
5
38
42
176
61
26
89
43
15
168
14
38
49
146
108
14
6,458
83
53
24
119
18
113
41
197
696
472
31
673
264
82
140
354
155
776
104
384
174
219
200
46
47
488
265
51
131
455
166
56
233
4,586
FY26E
1,505
9
121
123
276
87
34
117
54
20
210
17
48
59
175
137
17
7,015
99
61
28
146
22
136
46
242
805
520
36
735
281
90
152
372
177
804
112
407
187
217
215
49
48
518
278
48
127
400
154
59
187
5,130
FY27E
1,978
28
190
174
383
110
44
146
68
24
264
22
56
73
215
159
20
7,903
118
74
34
165
25
155
54
259
900
609
40
855
331
102
169
426
186
927
123
453
204
257
233
53
55
557
298
53
132
410
164
55
191
5,937
PAT
CAGR %
25-27
39
132
124
104
48
34
31
29
27
26
25
23
22
22
22
21
20
11
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
2
0
-5
-1
-1
-9
14
Contbn to
Delta %
40
1
6
6
9
2
1
2
1
0
4
0
1
1
3
2
0
62
2
1
0
2
0
2
1
3
9
6
0
8
3
1
1
3
1
6
1
3
1
2
1
0
0
3
1
0
0
-2
0
0
-2
100
June 2025
19
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
FY26E earnings highlights: Global commodities, NBFC-Lending,
Private Banks, and Telecom to drive the incremental earnings
The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of 4%/12%/14%
YoY in FY26E. Metals (25% YoY), Oil & Gas (13% YoY), NBFC-Lending (23% YoY),
Private Banks (10% YoY), and Telecom (Loss to Profit) sectors are projected to be
the key growth engines of earnings growth. They are likely to contribute 51% of the
incremental earnings in FY26E.
Exhibit 43: Metals, Oil & Gas, NBFCs, Private Banks, and Telecom to lead the incremental profits for FY26E (PAT, INR b)
250 212 188 169 99
95
84
83
75
71
69
66
57
56 51
37 36
34
20 19
9
9
6
4
2
Exhibit 44: Delta contribution to FY26E profit for the MOFSL Universe (%)
14
12
10
9
6
5
5
5
4
Delta Contribution (%)
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
June 2025
20
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
MOFSL Universe sees 11% earnings downgrade for FY26E on a
TTM basis
Cement, Oil & Gas experience downgrades
Over the last one year, earnings revisions for the MOFSL Universe saw a cut of
11%.
Cement, Oil & Gas, Technology, Automobiles, and Private Banks witnessed
significant earnings downgrades, while, only four sector saw upgrades
Exhibit 45: Cement, Oil & Gas, Technology witnessed downgrades over the last one year
37
22
% revision in PAT
15
6
0
0
-1
-2
-5
-5
-8
-9
-11
-11 -13 -14 -15 -15 -17 -19
-21 -21 -22
-43
Note: Comparable MOFSL Universe of 256 companies
Exhibit 46: Annual Sales/EBITDA/PAT estimates for the MOFSL Universe
Sales (INRb)
Sector
Automobiles
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
EMS
Financials
Banks-Private
Banks-PSU
Insurance
NBFC - Lending
NBFC - Non Lending
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Excl. OMCs
Real Estate
Retail
Staffing
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
MOFSL Universe
FY25
12,742
3,897
2,345
664
3,530
770
587
16,928
3,656
3,549
7,707
1,736
280
3,513
173
645
180
11,476
35,932
19,763
598
2,363
420
7,770
2,782
3,243
2,606
FY26E
13,587
4,469
2,685
739
3,855
878
785
18,590
4,030
3,770
8,460
2,013
317
3,891
198
758
196
12,719
32,370
18,420
752
2,778
472
8,096
3,171
3,704
3,082
FY27E
14,881
5,150
2,996
832
4,226
1,008
1,001
20,985
4,688
4,232
9,297
2,398
371
4,316
231
869
211
13,943
33,619
19,375
867
3,228
537
8,659
3,523
3,974
3,687
Growth YoY (%)
6
15
4
7
4
21
84
8
11
4
5
18
38
11
-9
11
-5
3
1
4
22
19
11
6
12
6
15
6
7
15
15
11
9
14
34
10
10
6
10
16
13
11
15
17
9
11
-10
-7
26
18
12
4
14
14
18
4
10
15
12
13
10
15
28
13
16
12
10
19
17
11
16
15
8
10
4
5
15
16
14
7
11
7
20
9
EBITDA (INRb)
1,682 1,748 1,957
467
323
119
827
77
35
545
441
144
912
91
47
635
545
175
1,009
110
64
Growth YoY (%)
3
20
-15
0
0
26
73
14
9
16
13
18
49
18
-2
14
-13
13
-17
-4
21
15
15
6
20
8
22
5
4
17
37
21
10
18
35
11
11
6
17
16
15
12
20
20
15
19
9
10
40
20
23
8
14
15
21
12
12
16
23
21
11
21
35
17
18
13
17
19
19
12
21
15
9
16
8
9
13
17
16
8
12
9
26
14
975
297
170
65
580
53
18
PAT (INRb)
1,011 1,143
353
236
85
651
62
27
433
305
107
725
75
39
Growth YoY (%)
7
22
-27
-5
-2
28
67
13
6
23
19
6
31
21
3
19
-3
17
-32
-15
43
10
48
9
Loss
7
13
4
4
19
39
31
12
17
50
11
10
5
10
23
16
14
34
25
18
25
13
13
37
32
31
7
LP
22
43
14
13
23
29
26
11
21
46
17
19
13
14
20
18
14
26
17
13
22
10
11
12
23
18
9
225
9
40
17
FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E
7,557 8,377 9,778
2,727 3,021 3,576
2,513 2,661 3,020
746
152
843
49
245
37
870
175
940
59
295
42
1,016
208
1,054
72
340
46
1,418 1,650 1,959
4,893 5,410 6,319
1,774 1,943 2,318
1,597 1,680 1,898
571
828
124
521
18
145
23
628
143
596
24
181
28
718
169
679
30
213
31
1,016 1,216
2,134 2,534 2,931
3,808 4,163 4,495
3,029 3,325 3,622
164
255
12
230
306
14
259
359
17
1,014 1,264 1,548
1,641 1,853 2,031
1,330 1,499 1,666
139
105
8
-29
432
159
190
139
10
71
526
228
212
170
12
230
575
320
1,743 1,880 2,035
1,406 1,604 1,797
1,162 1,331 1,457
450
543
683
23,393 26,250 29,820
1,213 1,297 1,413
113,162 117,775 1,28,742
12,439 14,242 16,609
Source: MOFSL
June 2025
21
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
SECTOR-WISE:
Highlights / Surprise / Guidance
AUTOMOBILES: Demand uncertainty prevails
Tractors outperformed in an otherwise subdued Q4:
The auto segment (excluding tractors) saw modest ~2%
YoY growth in domestic volumes during the quarter, with rural demand outpacing urban demand. Most of the
key segments, except three-wheelers (+7.7%), posted a low single-digit growth in Q4. The 2W industry, which
witnessed robust growth till H1, experienced a deceleration in demand in H2, resulting in a 1.4% YoY growth.
Excluding EV sales, the industry remained flat YoY. Further, scooters posted a 7% YoY growth, whereas both
motorcycles (-3.5%) and mopeds (-10.8%) posted a decline in Q4. Even PVs posted just 2% YoY growth in Q4.
Within PVs, UVs continued to drive growth, albeit at a slower pace of ~7%. On the other hand, both cars and
vans saw a single-digit decline in volumes. The domestic CV segment also posted a modest 1% YoY growth in Q4.
Growth was primarily driven by the bus segment, which continued to post double-digit growth. On the other
hand, while the MHCV goods segment posted ~3% growth, the LCV goods segment saw a decline of 3% in Q4.
The only segment that witnessed a strong demand recovery is tractors, which grew 17% YoY in Q4.
Operational performance for the coverage universe has largely been in line:
For our coverage universe, total
revenue grew ~6% YoY and was in line with our estimates. While Auto OEMs posted a 5% YoY growth, the auto
ancillary universe posted an 8% YoY growth. However, excluding Tata Motors (which posted flat growth YoY),
the OEM universe posted a stronger 10% revenue growth, driven largely by a favorable mix and price hikes. Both
PVs and 2Ws achieved about 10% growth each. While most OEMs posted an in-line revenue growth, MM
outperformed our estimates. On the operational front, TVS, Hyundai, and MM posted better-than-expected
margins in Q4. Among auto ancillaries, tire companies like CEAT and MRF, forgings/casting players like
Endurance and Craftsman, and others like MSWIL and Bosch posted better-than-expected operational
performance.
Demand outlook remains modest; risk of margin pressure surfaces:
For FY26E, the industry body expects PVs to
grow in low single digits (2-4%), CVs to grow in mid single digits, and 2Ws to grow at ~6%. The recent budgetary
support by the government, particularly income tax cuts for the middle-income class, is expected to boost
demand, especially for price-sensitive segments like 2Ws. Tractors are likely to post high single digit growth on
the back of positive rural sentiments. Further, most OEMs have cautioned about a gradual rise in input cost
inflation that may dent margins in the near term. The recent appreciation of INR vs USD is another key
monitorable for exports-focused companies. Given these factors, FY26 is expected to be a year of modest
earnings growth for most companies under coverage.
Several EPS downgrades amid demand moderation:
Given that the demand slowdown had already begun in
Q4, we had lowered our estimates in the previous quarter. Post Q4, there have been no material changes in
earnings within our coverage universe. Some companies that witnessed an earnings cut for FY26 include BIL
(8%), ARENM (7%), CIE (4%), Escorts Kubota (3%), and TTMT (12%), while companies such as CEAT (4%), MRF
(7%), Craftsman (7%), and MM (4%) saw earnings upgrades.
Valuation and view:
As highlighted above, the earnings outlook for the sector appears benign, given the modest
volume growth outlook and expectations of rising input cost pressure. Further, the recent stock market rally has
led to the normalisation of valuation multiples (which had corrected in the recent past) for most companies
under our coverage. Given these factors, we prefer to align with companies that are expected to outperform in
their respective segments. MSIL, MM, and Hyundai are our top OEM picks. Among ancillaries, we prefer ENDU,
HAPPYFORG, and MOTHERSO.
Surprises:
TVS, MM, Hyundai, CEAT, MRF, ENDU, CRAFTSMA, MSWIL, BOS
Misses:
MSIL, ARENM, SAMIL
Guidance highlights:
MSIL:
The industry is likely to grow at a modest 1-2% in FY26, with MSIL aiming to outperform this growth,
supported by its new launches. MSIL has lined up two new launches: the recently unveiled e-Vitara and an
additional SUV. MSIL expects to post at least 20% YoY growth in exports for FY26.
MM:
Auto –
Management remains optimistic about continuing to outperform the industry in FY26 in the UV
segment, driven by the full-year launch benefits of Thar Roxx and XUV 3XO, along with recently launched EVs.
June 2025
22
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Tractors –
Management has guided for high single digit growth in the tractors industry in FY26 and expects to
outperform industry growth.
Hyundai (HMI):
HMI targets to launch 26 products (a combination of new and refreshes) by FY30, of which 20
would be ICE and six would be EVs. It targets to launch almost eight models during FY26-27. Additionally, it
expects to post 7-8% YoY growth in exports in FY26.
TTMT:
JLR -
JLR is currently facing significant uncertainty due to tariffs levied by the US globally on automobiles.
Hence, management has refrained from providing any guidance for FY26.
CV -
Given favorable demand
indicators, management expects the CV industry to post single-digit growth in FY26.
PV -
Industry demand for
FY26 is likely to remain moderate, similar to FY25. TTMT targets to outperform the industry on the back of its
new launches.
AL:
Management expects each of the CV segments to post growth in FY26, led by favorable indicators. It has
indicated that it expects steel prices to inch up from 1Q onwards (by INR3-5 per kg), and further in 2Q due to the
safeguard duty imposed on steel.
BJAUT:
Domestic 2W -
Management expects the 2W industry to post 5-6% YoY growth in FY26, largely driven by
125cc+ segment. On the back of its new launches, BJAUT aims to regain its lost market share in the 125cc+
segment and targets to move closer to the market leader in this segment by the end of FY26.
Exports 2W -
Management expects exports to grow at 15-20% YoY in FY26, led by strong growth in Latin America and the
Middle East as well as an expected revival in exports to KTM in H2.
Input costs:
Management expects input costs
to rise 1% QoQ in Q1.
HMCL:
Management expects the 2W industry to post 6-7% YoY growth in FY26, largely similar to FY25. It also
expects to outperform industry growth in FY26, backed by its upcoming new launches.
TVSL:
Management expects the 2W industry’s growth rate to remain moderate in Q1, given the high base of last
year. However, with overall demand drivers remaining positive, management expects 2W growth in FY26 to be
similar to that of FY25.
EIM:
RE expects volume growth to continue in FY26. While rural areas continue to see positive sentiments, early
signs of recovery are emerging in urban regions, which should bode well for players like RE. As indicated in prior
quarters, management continues to focus on absolute growth in profitability.
SAMIL:
Management has outlined its five-year growth aspiration to achieve USD108b in revenues (from the
current USD25.7b). It is currently implementing a cost-cutting exercise that, once completed, will help save
EUR50m over a three-year period.
BIL:
Management has set an ambitious five-year roadmap to scale up revenue by 2.2x to INR230b by 2030,
which includes its foray into the TBR and PCTR segments in India. However, it has refrained from providing
growth guidance for its core global OHT segment due to the adverse macro environment across its key regions
globally.
Volumes ('000 units)
EBITDA Margins (%)
Adj PAT (INR M)
4Q YoY
3Q
QoQ 4Q
4Q YoY 3Q QoQ
4Q
4Q
YoY
3Q
QoQ
FY24 (%)
FY25
(%) FY25 FY24 (bp) FY25 (bp)
FY25
FY24
(%)
FY25
(%)
1069 3.2 1,224.5 -9.9 20.2 20.1 10
20
0
20,492
19,360
5.8
21,087
-2.8
1392 -0.9 1,463.8 -5.7 14.2 14.3
0
14
-20
10,809
10,161
6.4
12,028 -10.1
1065 14.2 1,212.0 0.4 12.5 11.3 110 12
60
6,904
4,854
42.2
6,185
11.6
584 3.5
566.2
6.8 10.5 12.3 -180 12 -110
37,111
38,778
-4.3
35,250
5.3
194 -1.1 186.4
2.8 14.1 14.3 -20 11 290
16,143
16,772
-3.7
11,607
39.1
277 15.3 343.7
-7.0 14.9 13.1 180 15
30
24,371
20,001 21.9 29,643 -17.8
56
5.1
46.4
27.5 15.0 14.1 90
13 230
12,562
9,485
32.4
7,617
64.9
228 24.2 272.3
3.9 24.7 27.6 -290 25
-20
11,251
9,833
14.4 10,562
6.5
5130 5.5
5,551
-2.5 12.9 12.0 100 13.5 -60 1,45,031 1,23,465 17.5 1,46,920 -1.3
** PBT instead of PAT; JLR in GBP m; Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 47: Key operating indicators
4Q
FY25
1,103
1,381
1,216
605
192
319
59
283
5,410
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
Maruti Suzuki
Hyundai
M&M
Ashok Leyland
Eicher - RE
Aggregate **
June 2025
23
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 48: Aggregate EBITDA margin for OEM (ex TTMT) expanded 90bp YoY to 12.9%, led
by a better mix and lower input costs
17
14
11
8
5
Aggregate (excl JLR)
CAPITAL GOODS: Execution slowdown offset by higher margins
Ordering sees healthy improvement:
Order inflow growth was healthier than expected. It was particularly
buoyed by the continued momentum in power T&D. International ordering improved for LT, while KECI and
KOEL witnesses healthy ordering across domestic and international markets. Private capex-led ordering has been
weak for SIEM (ex-Energy) and TMX. Indian defence pipeline remains strong in near term on account of
emergency procurement, as well as for medium-to-long term from both - base and large orders. The pipeline
from cement, steel, petrochemicals, etc. is yet to fructify into firm orders, while select sectors such as power
T&D, renewable energy, data centers, real estate, defense, etc. continue to witness healthy traction.
Execution growth slightly below estimates:
Overall execution of our coverage universe grew by 10% YoY (vs.
our estimates of 15%) on the back of healthy opening order books with EPC companies posting 12% growth and
product companies revenue YoY growth stood at 5%. Accordingly, KPIL, TRIV and ZEN saw healthy revenue
growth, while ABB, KOEL, KKC, KECI, TMX, KOEL, and SIEM were weaker.
Margin trajectory improving:
With benefit on commodity prices, margins have expanded for EPC players, with
FY26 poised to see further improvement on completion of legacy projects. For product companies (ex-Siemens),
margins have seen some improvement as the companies enjoy pricing power and strong demand, leading to a
favorable product mix coupled with operating leverage benefits. Notable examples include TRIV, POWERIND,
KKC, LT and BHE which reported healthy margin expansion in 4QFY25, while TMX and KOEL reported YoY flat
margins.
Exports continue to improve sequentially:
LT and ABB reported a good uptick in international ordering, while
KOEL and KKC continued to witness sequential improvement in export revenue. Given the global uncertainty
around trade wars, macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors, the export trajectory needs to be
monitored closely.
Top picks:
With the recent correction in stock prices, we remain positive on LT, BHE and KKC.
Surprises:
BHE, POWERIND , KECI, KOEL, KPIL, LT, ZEN
Misses:
ABB, TMX
Guidance highlights:
Most managements were confident about a robust prospect pipeline given the expected recovery of government
and private capex across sectors.
LT:
FY26 order inflow growth guidance of 10% YoY with prospect pipeline of INR19t (+57% YoY), revenue growth
of 15% YoY, and margin guidance of 8.5%.
BHE:
FY26 revenue growth guidance of 15%, margin guidance of 27% and order inflow guidance of INR270b.
HAL:
Revenue guidance of 8-10% for FY26.
Zen Tech:
Medium term revenue CAGR guidance of 50% with INR10b in FY26, INR20b in FY27, and INR30 in
FY28. Margin guidance at 35% at EBITDA level and 25% at PAT level.
KKC:
Maintained double-digit revenue growth guidance for FY26 with GDP expected to grow 6.5% YoY
June 2025
24
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
KOEL:
Maintained its aim of “2B2B” – to achieve USD2b size by FY30; margins to improve.
KECI:
FY26 order inflow guidance of INR300b, while revenue is guided at INR250b (+15% YoY), with an EBITDA
margin of 8-8.5%
KPIL:
FY26 revenue growth guidance of 20%, while PBT margin are expected to be at 5.25-5.5%. Order inflows
guidance of INR260b-280b, and NWC guided to be below 100 days.
TRIV:
Domestic ordering expected to rebound in FY26, while high-margin aftermarket services are expected to
grow steadily, especially in refurbishment and spares across key regions including the U.S., Europe, and Africa.
Exhibit 49: Aggregate order book (ex-Siemens) seeing a steady build-up (INR b)
Order book (INR b)
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 50: Aggregate revenue growth (%)
Capital goods revenue growth (%)
Exhibit 51: Aggregate EBITDA growth (%)
Capital goods EBITDA growth (%)
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 52: Aggregate EBITDA margin (%)
Capital goods EBITDA margin (%)
Exhibit 53: Aggregate PAT growth (%)
Capital goods PAT growth (%)
228
82
5 3
6 23
-28
-77
40
25 26 19 39 38 26 27 20 19 21 13
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
June 2025
25
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
CEMENT: Volumes in line; EBITDA beat on higher realization and lower opex/t vs. our estimates
Volumes grew ~11% YoY, realization declined ~2%:
Cement demand has further improved in 4QFY25, driven by
increased government spending and an overall pick-up in all the economic activities. The housing demand picked
up, aided by an uptick in rural demand because of good monsoons and increased urbanization. The aggregate
volume for our coverage universe grew ~11% YoY (in line), higher than the industry volume growth at 4-5% led
by inorganic growth. Cement realization declined ~2% YoY (up 1% QoQ) to INR5,372/t, which was ~3% above our
estimates. Players having higher exposures in the northern and eastern regions have reported higher sequential
increases in realization, while southern region players have seen muted realization QoQ. UTCEM reported the
highest volume growth of ~17% YoY (aided by inorganic growth), followed by JKCE at ~15%, ACC/ACEM at ~14%/
13% (also aided by inorganic growth), and JKLC at 10%. ICEM, BCORP, and SRCM posted volume growth of 8%/
7%/3% YoY, while TRCL posted a volume decline of ~4%. Though DALBHARA’s volume dipped ~2% YoY, its
volume (ex-JPA) grew ~5% YoY. The aggregate revenue (ex-GRASIM) increased ~8% YoY to INR541.7b. GRASIM’s
standalone revenue rose ~32% YoY to INR89.3b in 4QFY25, backed by steady revenue gains from its new growth
businesses (Birla Opus and Birla Pivot combined revenue stood at INR21.7b). GRASIM’s VSF/chemical segment’s
revenue was flat/down 6% YoY.
Gross margin for our cement coverage increased 1pp YoY to ~60%,
as the adverse impact of weak realizations
YoY was more than offset by lower variable costs (average variable cost/t declined ~5% YoY to INR2,156; in line).
Total opex/t declined 2% YoY to INR4,348.
Aggregate EBITDA for our coverage companies increased 7% YoY
(including GRASIM, which registered an EBITDA decline of 58% YoY), and OPM declined by 60bp YoY (up 4.5pp
QoQ) to ~17% (80bp above our estimate).
EBITDA increased by ~37%/21% for JKCE/DALBHARA YoY, followed by
~13%/12%/10% for BCORP/UTCEM/ACEM. EBITDA of SRCM/JKLC increased ~6%/4% YoY. However, ACC/TRCL
posted an EBITDA decline of 4%/23% YoY. ICEM reported EBITDA of INR5m vs. EBITDA of INR469m in 4QFY24.
Avg. EBITDA/t remained flat YoY at INR1,057 (vs. estimated INR965).
Aggregate PAT declined 4% YoY (ex-Grasim, PAT was up ~6%):
Aggregate interest/depreciation expenses for
our coverage universe grew 18%/30% YoY, while other income declined 3% YoY.
Aggregate profit increased 6%
YoY to INR46.4b for cement companies (profit down 4% YoY to INR44.3b, including GRASIM, as it posted a loss
of INR2.1b vs. PAT of INR2.3b in 4QFY24).
PAT increased 69%/52% YoY for JKCE/BCORP, followed by 41%/23%
for DALBHARA/JKLC, and ~8%/4% for UTCEM/ACC. PAT declined by ~77% for TRCL and ~16% for ACEM/SRCM
(each). ICEM/GRASIM reported net losses during the quarter.
Earnings were broadly maintained, with a few upgrades and one downgrade:
We maintained our aggregate
EBITDA estimates for our coverage universe for FY26/FY27, and there were no rating downgrades. We saw
EBITDA upgrades for FY26/27 in DALBHARA by ~2%/6%, SRCM by ~5%/2%, JKCE by ~4% (each), BCORP by
~14%/8%, and JKLC by ~5% (each). We downgraded our EBITDA estimate for GRASIM by 22%/17% for FY26/27.
We maintained our EBITDA estimate for UTCEM, ACC, ACEM, TRCL, and ICEM.
Top picks:
UTCEM remained our preferred pick in the large-cap space and JKCE in the mid-cap space.
Surprises:
ACC, ACEM, BCORP, JKCE, JKLC, ICEM, and SRCM
Misses:
DALBHARA, TRCL and GRASIM
Guidance highlights:
Cement demand at the beginning of FY26 has been slightly weak due to unfavorable weather conditions, which
slowed down construction activities and weak demand from the IHB segment. Most of the management teams
guided a demand growth of ~6–7% YoY in FY26. Cement prices have increased substantially in the south region up
~10% QTD from exit-4QFY25, while in other regions prices are flattish to marginally up (~1-2%). The companies are
focusing on balancing volume growth and profitability.
UTCEM:
It indicated that there was some demand weakness at the beginning of FY26 due to heatwaves;
however, demand is likely to improve going forward. Sustainable volume growth for the industry should be 7-
8%, and UTCEM’s FY26 volume growth on a like-to-like basis should be in double digits. It achieved cost savings
of INR86/t in FY25 and aims to achieve further cost savings of ~INR214/t by FY27. Net debt/EBITDA was 1.2x,
and debt should start reducing rapidly. UTCEM has a comfortable net debt/EBITDA of 0.5x
June 2025
26
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
ACEM:
It reiterated that cost reduction guidance of INR500/t (incl. INR150-170/t achieved till now) by FY28E and
aims to achieve EBITDA/t of INR1,500 by FY28E. ACEM’s capacity expansion plans remain on track, and it will
have a cement capacity of 140mtpa by FY28E. Most of the capacity expansion in FY26 will be through organic
routes, though management is not averse to inorganic plans.
DALBHARA:
It indicated that cement demand saw a recovery in 4QFY25 with an industry growth rate estimated
at 7-8% YoY v/s 3-3.5% YoY in 9MFY25. It expects cement demand to grow ~7-8% YoY in FY26, led by increased
government spending and pent-up demand. It refrained from giving any company-specific guidance for FY26,
though the focus would be on balancing the volume growth and profitability. Cement prices have surged in
South India (INR30-40/bag), while the blended average price increase in the company’s markets is INR10-15/bag.
JKCE:
It targets to achieve a grey cement volume of ~20mt (~12% YoY growth) in FY26. Out of targeted cost
savings of INR150-200/t, the average cost reduction of INR40/t was achieved in FY25 (~INR75/t on an exit-FY25
basis). Average cost savings of INR25-30/t will be achieved in FY26, along with a full-year benefit of INR75/t.
JKLC:
It targets volume growth of ~10% in FY26 vs. expected industry growth of 6.5%-7.0%. The cost-efficiency
measures are estimated to deliver INR100-120/t in cost savings in the next 12-18 months. On expansions,
1.35mtpa Surat GU will be commissioned in phases during Jun-Dec’25, while the Durg integrated unit is targeted
for 3QFY27. The northeast project saw a delay due to political and local issues.
BCORP:
It indicated that the QoQ spike in realizations was led by price hikes in the North & East regions, a better
regional mix, and higher premium product sales. The current realization is flat vs. the 4QFY25 average. It targets
volume growth of ~6-8% in FY26, in line with the industry. Further, BCORP announced the next leg of capacity
expansion to increase its clinker/grinding capacity to 16.7mtpa/27.6mtpa from 13.0mtpa/20.0mtpa currently.
GRASIM:
It indicated that within less than six months of Pan-India operations, Birla Opus has emerged as the
third-largest decorative paints brand in India, considering the 4QFY25 exit revenue run-rate. In VSF, global
demand is muted, while in China, demand has declined. This slowdown, coupled with tariff uncertainties since
mid-Apr’25, has led to a cautious approach in VSF.
Exhibit 55: Blended realization declined 2% YoY in 4QFY25
Realization (INR/t)
Exhibit 54: Sales volume grew ~11% YoY in 4QFY25
Aggregate Vol (mt)
45
20
4
15 9 10
10
16 13
7 11 4
2
(3)
2
8 11
YoY change (%)
72 61 59 64 74 69 64 70 82 80 73 75 91 83 74 81 101
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 56: Aggregate EBITDA increased 11% YoY in 4QFY25
Aggregate EBITDA (INR b)
43 51
-6
-18
-26
-20
-6 -1
10
-46
YoY Change (%)
Exhibit 57: Average EBITDA/t was flat YoY in 4QFY25
Average EBITDA (INR/t)
78
-5 -30
-28
11
59
30
Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *EBITDA excluding Grasim
Source: Company, MOFSL
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CHEMICALS: Double-digit EBITDA growth for the first time since 4QFY23; margin expands YoY
Overall performance:
Revenue was in line with our estimates (DN, GALSURF, and VO beat our expectations).
EBITDA was also in line (ATLP, DN, GALSURF, PI, and SRF beat our estimates, while AACL, FINEORG, NOCIL, and
TTCH missed our estimates). Adj. PAT was in line (ATLP, DN, GALSURF, PI, and SRF beat our estimates, while AACL,
FINEORG, NFIL, NOCIL, and TTCH were below our estimates; CLEAN and VO were in line). Aggregate revenue rose
10% YoY to INR173b, EBITDA was up 14% YoY to INR31.3b, and adj. PAT grew 18% YoY to INR17.3b.
The aggregate gross margin for our coverage universe contracted 230bp YoY in 4QFY25 (vs. a dip of 20bp YoY in
3QFY25). NFIL, PI, and VO saw gross margin expansion YoY, but GM contracted for the rest. Aggregate EBITDA
margin expanded 60bp YoY (the first time since 4QFY23, a dip of 130bp YoY in 3QFY25). AACL, CLEAN, FINEORG,
NOCIL, and TTCH saw EBITDAM contraction YoY, while there was an expansion for the rest within our coverage
universe on a YoY basis.
Ratings and earnings revisions:
There has been one rating change for our coverage universe post 3QFY25
earnings, upgrading SRF to BUY (from Neutral) with a TP of INR3,540 on an SoTP basis, given a strong business
outlook despite past underperformance. We cut our estimates for FINEORG, GALSURF, PI, TTCH, NFIL, NOCIL,
and VO post-4QFY25 earnings. AACL, ATLP, and SRF saw an upward revision post-4QFY25 earnings season.
Top picks: ATLP –
Its end-user demand improved in FY25 with key projects like the 50ktpa liquid epoxy resin
plant commissioned and caustic soda plant issues resolved, unlocking an unrealized sales potential of INR25b.
The stock trades at ~29x FY27E EPS with a target price of INR8,450 (35x FY27E EPS), supported by strong growth
prospects, though risks include slower project ramp-up and margin pressures.
VO –
VOPL has commissioned key
plants for MEHQ, Guaiacol, and other products, with AO revenue growing from INR1.3b in FY24 to INR2.2b in
FY25, making VO the largest double-integrated AO manufacturer in India. The stock trades at ~28x FY27E EPS
with a target price of INR2,195 (35x FY27E EPS), reflecting a healthy long-term growth outlook despite supply
risks from China.
Surprises:
ATLP, DN, GALSURF, PI, and SRF
Misses:
AACL, FINEORG, NOCIL, and TTCH
Guidance highlights:
AACL:
Double-digit volume growth in FY25 was offset by pricing pressure, particularly in amines due to
oversupply and Chinese dumping. Capex projects at Dahej are on track, with FY26 growth expected to be
volume-led amid continued margin pressure.
ATLP:
It reported strong volume and price growth across key segments in FY25, driven by crop protection,
pharma, and specialty chemicals, with significant unrealized sales potential across businesses. The company is
expanding into value-added upstream/downstream products and targeting high-growth areas such as agri-
biotech, epoxy resins, and international retail.
CLEAN:
It delivered 25% volume-led growth in FY25 despite an 8% drop in realizations, with strong contributions
from new products and steady EBITDA margins. With a USD1.5b TAM expansion expected in FY26, capex of
INR3b is planned, and key product launches like Performance Chemicals and Barbituric Acid remain on track.
DN:
Volume-led growth offset pricing pressures in FY25 amid the global slowdown, with domestic demand and
new contracts providing support. The FY26 outlook remains strong with major capacity additions, renewable
energy ramp-up, and normalized profitability expected despite management's cautious stance.
GALSURF:
The business navigated a volatile FY25 with stable supply but mixed demand—flat in India and AMET
but strong double-digit growth in RoW. FY26 volume growth is guided at 6–8%, with EBITDA/kg expected at
INR20.5–21.5, supported by partial pass-through of elevated fatty alcohol costs.
NFIL:
It delivered a strong 4QFY25 with stable segment momentum, key strategic tie-ups (Chemours, Buss
ChemTech), and robust project execution across HPP, Spec Chem, and CDMO. The FY26 outlook remains positive
with strong order visibility, volume-led growth, and margin support from softer raw material prices.
NOCIL:
Management remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and pricing pressure from China, Korea, and
the EU, though the Indian tyre industry shows a healthy 4-6% CAGR supported by strong domestic demand and
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favorable policies. Capex of INR2.5b is on track for expanding TDQ antioxidant production in Dahej, while
domestic volumes are stable and export growth is expected to be stronger despite some 4QFY25 product mix
challenges.
PI:
It expects single-digit revenue growth with a 25% EBITDA margin in FY26, led by domestic agri momentum
and new product launches, while exports face near-term headwinds. The long-term outlook remains strong with
double-digit growth from 2HFY26, supported by stable commodities and a favorable monsoon.
TTCH:
India, Kenya, and the UK are expected to improve in FY26, with UK operations stabilizing from 2QFY26 and
US domestic business improving despite export challenges. Capex will reduce from INR20.05b in FY25 to INR5.5-
6b in FY26, including INR600m for Kenya and INR180m for Silica capacity, while Mithapur's soda ash and bicarb
capacity will reach full utilization.
SRF:
Its specialty chemicals segment saw strong revenue and margin growth in FY25, driven by new product
launches, capacity debottlenecking with INR7b investment, and a target of 20%+ revenue growth in FY26, aiming
for INR110b+ in three years. The fluorochemicals business delivered robust 4QFY25 performance with higher
HFC volumes and realizations, supported by rising refrigerant demand and ongoing INR11b capex, with HFC
capacity utilization expected to rise to 80-85% in FY26.
VO:
It delivered strong FY25 growth with ATBS up 30%, BP 26%, and AOs 70% YoY, while capex of INR3.6b is
focused on expanding ATBS capacity and launching new products like Anisole, targeting 20% CAGR and 26-27%
EBITDAM in FY26. Segment contributions include ATBS 35%, IB & HPMTBE 15%, BP 15%, and AOs 10%, with
continued demand growth from O&G, water treatment, and new product commercialization.
Exhibit 58: Revenue for our coverage universe
Aggregate Revenue (INR b)
130.4
140.4
153.1
170.0
172.8
163.6
168.2
158.2
155.4
150.0
156.7
163.4
168.2
159.3
173.0
122.6
Exhibit 59: Gross margin for our coverage universe
Aggregate Gross margin (%)
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Exhibit 60: EBITDAM for our coverage universe
Aggregate EBITDAM (%)
Exhibit 61: EBIT margin for our coverage universe
Aggregate EBIT margin (%)
Exhibit 62: PAT margin for our coverage universe
Aggregate adj. PAT margin (%)
CONSUMER - FMCG: In-line revenues; margins continue to contract
Demand trend continues to remain soft:
Our coverage universe reported a 6.2% YoY revenue growth (vs. est.
6.3%). Excluding ITC, our consumer sector grew at 6.6% YoY (est. 7.3%). Demand remained subdued during the
quarter. Volume growth across most companies was limited to low- to mid-single digits (refer to Exhibit 1). Rural
demand continues to show gradual improvement, while urban demand remains subdued. This trend is also
reflected in Nielsen’s data, with rural growth at 8.4% vs. urban at 2.6%. A higher LUP mix (observed in urban
areas as well) further impacted underlying volume growth. Paint companies were affected by muted demand
and consumer sentiment, along with downtrading and elevated competitive intensity, which collectively
impacted industry growth trends. Liquor companies saw continued growth momentum, driven by the new
Andhra Pradesh liquor policy and healthy P&A demand. Innerwear demand also remained healthy, with Tier 2
and Tier 3 cities showing more pronounced growth, outperforming metro and Tier 1 markets. Traditional
channels remained sluggish, whereas emerging channels continued to drive growth and improve the sales mix.
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Overall, in our coverage, five companies posted double-digit revenue growth, while APNT, PG, and CLGT
recorded a decline in revenue. Overall, 18 out of 20 companies reported revenue in line with estimates.
Gross margin pressure impacted EBITDA:
Rising commodity costs, particularly in the agri basket, combined with
price hikes taken at a lag, led to gross margin pressure across most categories and companies. In 4Q, margin
softness was broad-based across categories but more pronounced in the beauty & personal care segment. With
tighter operational costs (particularly ad spends), companies were able to restrict margin pressure at the EBITDA
level to some extent. Companies have largely completed price hikes, and RM inflation is beginning to cool off, so
the full benefits are expected to materialize in the coming quarters. Our coverage universe reported 1.5% YoY
EBITDA growth in 4QFY25 (vs. est. +1%). Excluding ITC, EBITDA grew 3% (est. +2.5%) in 4QFY25.
PBT and PAT below expectations:
For 17 of the 20 coverage companies, PBT was either ahead of or in line with
our estimates, with a better-than-expected performance recorded by PAGE, INDIGOPN, UBBL, and UNSP.
Conversely, there were notable misses by APNT, CLGT, and PG. Aggregate PBT grew 1.8% YoY (est. +1.6% YoY).
Aggregate PAT declined 1% (est. flat YoY).
Outperformer (4Q):
PAGE, UBBL, UNSP, and INDIGOPN
Under performer (4Q):
APNT, CLGT, and PG
Near-term outlook:
While a slowdown persists across consumer segments, demand trends are expected to
improve gradually, supported by income tax benefits, interest rate cuts, and gradual improvements in the macro
environment. That said, the early onset of monsoon could adversely impact summer-heavy products such as
carbonated drinks and talcum powders in 1QFY26. We anticipate a steady recovery in volume growth, supported
by a recovery in both urban and rural markets. Companies continue to focus on traditional growth strategies
such as expanding distribution, launching new products, and offering consumer incentives. Most consumer
companies have completed price hikes to offset raw material inflation. As a result, realization-driven growth,
coupled with an expected uptick in volumes, should accelerate revenue growth in the coming quarters. Our top
picks are HUVR, GCPL, MRCO, and PAGE.
Guidance highlights:
Consumption trends remain soft, with rural demand outperforming urban demand. Most
companies have implemented price hikes across categories to pass on RM inflation, with no price cuts expected in
the near term. Improving macro trends indicate a gradual recovery in consumption during FY26.
APNT:
APNT anticipates a gradual and prolonged demand recovery. It expects T-3/4 towns to continue
outperforming in the near term, supported by normal monsoon forecasts and ongoing government spending,
which should further boost rural demand. Management expects to deliver single-digit value growth in FY26.
BRIT:
With moderation in RM prices, BRIT does not foresee any further price hikes. Management has guided for
an EBITDA margin in the 17-18% range. For FY26, BRIT expects revenue growth driven by both volume and value.
However, due to price hikes implemented in recent quarters, the company expects a delta between volume and
value growth.
DABUR:
Most of Dabur’s recent price hikes were largely negated by trade promotions, impacting gross margins.
Inflation was ~5%, while price hikes stood at ~3.5% in 4Q. These price hikes are expected to continue into
1QFY26 as well. For FY26, Dabur aims for high single-digit value growth and an expansion in operating margin.
HMN:
In 4QFY25, input costs remained broadly under control and are expected to remain stable in the near
future. A price hike of 2-3% is expected in FY26.
HUVR:
Growth is expected to gain momentum throughout FY26, supported by improving macro tailwinds and
portfolio enhancement initiatives. Growth in 1HFY26 is likely to outpace that of 2HFY25. Management has
revised its EBITDA margin guidance to 22-23% for the next 2-3 quarters, compared to the earlier guidance at the
lower end of 23-24%, reflecting increased investments in portfolio transformation and market development.
GCPL:
For FY26, GCPL has guided for mid- to high-single-digit volume growth, high-single-digit revenue growth,
and double-digit EBITDA growth. The company expects its Indian business to post mid- to high-single-digit
June 2025
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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volume growth, which will be backed by ~2% volume growth in soaps, ~7% volume growth in HI, and ~15%
volume growth in the rest of its domestic portfolio. GCPL does not expect any price cuts in the near term.
MRCO:
Despite near-term input cost headwinds, the company aims to sustain its double-digit revenue growth
and deliver double-digit operating profit growth in FY26.
PIDI:
EBITDA margin is expected to be in the 20-24% range in the medium term. It targets growth at 1-2x GDP in
its core categories and 2-4x GDP in its high-growth categories.
VBL:
The Indian market remains underpenetrated despite growth in competition, with total retail outlets of
~12m; VBL has only reached ~4m outlets. The company maintains its guidance of double-digit growth, led by
industry tailwinds. The Indian business is expected to maintain margins at ~21% over the long term.
Exhibit 63: Quarterly volume growth
Volume growth (%)
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Consumer
HUL
ITC
Jyothy labs
Marico
Nestle
Page Industries
UBBL
United spirits
-P&A
1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
37.0
10.0
0.0
16.0
10.0
6.0
12.0
10.0
7.0
-0.5
1.6
1.8
-2.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
5.5
6.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
3.0
-2.5
-2.5
-4.5
0.5
3.0
-1.0
-1.0
1.0
7.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
5.0
1.0
-3.0
1.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
5.2
-7.0
1.2
-5.0
9.6
-1.0
-3.9
2.0
3.0
2.0
-1.0
6.4
8.7
1.7
4.0
5.0
-6.0
-5.0
3.0
13.0
10.0
4.0
5.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
0.0
4.0
6.0
4.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
0.0
2.0
26.0
20.0
15.0
11.5
8.0
5.0
-2.0
2.0
3.0
3.5
6.0
5.0
3.0
1.4
2.1
3.3
9.0
9.0
11.0
10.0
10.8
3.0
8.0
4.0
-5.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
7.0
8.8
-2.3
5.1
5.4
5.4
4.0
4.0
2.0
-1.5
2.5
2.0
150.0
1.0
-11.0
-15.0
-11.5
-8.8
4.6
6.1
2.6
6.7
4.7
8.5
121.0
23.0
4.0
3.1
-12.4
7.0
8.0
10.9
5.0
5.0
8.0
5.0
17.9
8.3
-25.0
-27.3
5.8
1.0
-1.8
3.7
3.5
-4.4
10.2
6.9
24.4
12.8
3.9
9.7
10.3
3.8
4.6
3.7
5.1
-3.7
11.2
9.2
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 64: Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth for 4QFY25
Company Name
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Consumer
HUL
Indigo Paints
ITC
Jyothy
LT Foods
Marico
Nestle
P&G Hygiene
Page Industries
Pidilite
Tata consumer
United Breweries
United Spirits
Varun Beverages
Revenue
83,589
44,322
14,625
28,301
9,631
35,980
1,56,700
3,876
1,87,650
6,670
22,284
27,300
55,039
9,916
10,981
31,411
46,082
23,214
29,460
55,669
4QFY25
YoY %
-4.3%
8.9%
-1.8%
0.6%
8.1%
6.3%
3.0%
0.7%
4.7%
1.1%
7.4%
19.8%
4.5%
-1.1%
10.6%
8.2%
17.3%
8.9%
10.5%
28.9%
EBITDA
14,362
8,052
4,980
4,269
2,194
7,592
36,190
874
65,194
1,119
2,583
4,580
14,094
2,097
2,352
6,326
6,210
1,862
5,050
12,640
4QFY25
YoY %
-15.1%
2.3%
-6.4%
-8.6%
4.0%
-0.2%
2.4%
3.3%
-1.6%
3.3%
5.4%
3.6%
5.0%
-18.5%
43.1%
9.6%
-1.4%
31.2%
39.5%
27.8%
4QFY25
YoY %
8,838
-30.7%
5,591
4.2%
3,550
-6.5%
3,284
-8.2%
1,812
8.6%
4,321
-24.8%
25,656
2.6%
569
6.0%
50,748
-0.9%
806
3.1%
1,605
7.9%
3,430
7.9%
8,730
-4.5%
1,561
-15.8%
1,640
51.6%
4,473
20.2%
3,109
-17.9%
974
20.5%
3,798
62.3%
7,265
35.2%
Source: Company, MOFSL
PAT
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Exhibit 65: Gross and EBITDA margin expansion in 4QFY25
Companies
Staples
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Consumer
HUL
ITC
Jyothy
LT Foods
Marico
Nestle
P&G Hygiene
Tata consumer
Varun Beverages
Paints
Asian Paints
Indigo Paints
Pidilite
Liquor
United Breweries
United Spirits
Gross Margin
40.1%
70.6%
46.7%
65.9%
52.5%
51.4%
58.8%
49.2%
35.7%
48.6%
56.2%
60.2%
41.9%
54.6%
43.9%
46.8%
55.0%
42.1%
44.5%
YoY (bp)
-479
131
-192
11
-362
-94
-448
-31
336
-301
-63
-610
-420
-171
23
-204
161
37
114
QoQ (bp)
138
70
-138
-439
-164
4
115
-58
227
-93
-22
-461
84
-151
149
21
71
-103
-26
EBITDA Margin
18.2%
34.1%
15.1%
22.8%
21.1%
23.1%
34.7%
16.8%
11.6%
16.8%
25.6%
21.1%
13.5%
22.7%
17.2%
22.6%
20.1%
8.0%
17.1%
YoY (bp)
-118
-166
-150
-89
-136
-15
-223
36
-22
-263
12
-453
-256
-20
-219
58
26
QoQ (bp)
-23
297
-524
-949
104
-26
88
35
61
-230
219
-859
77
698
-196
587
-356
136
96
356
1
Source: Company, MOFSL
CONSUMER - QSR: Growth on favorable base; store expansion continues
Gradual improvement in demand:
Consumption trends remain soft due to macro inflation and an urban
slowdown, although the company expects a gradual recovery in dining-out frequency. Eating-out frequency
largely remained unchanged in 4QFY25. With a favorable base, same-store sales growth (SSSG) showed an uptick
(ex-KFC). The revenue gap between dine-in and delivery has narrowed, driven by increased dine-in footfall
traffic. However, weak underlying growth continued to impact operating margins, exerting pressure on
restaurant and EBITDA margins for most brands. Enhancements in value-focused menu offerings and
promotional activities have increased footfalls. While delivery channels remain strong, dine-in is showing a
gradual improvement. Our coverage universe posted revenue growth of 11% YoY (organic growth) in 4QFY25 vs.
12% in 3QFY25 and 8% in 4QFY24. Jubilant delivered robust LFL growth of 12%, Westlife/Devyani PH/Sapphire
PH/RBA recorded SSSG of 1%/1%/1%/5%, while Devyani KFC/Sapphire KFC/BBQ registered same-store sales
decline of 6%/1%/2%. KFC was partly impacted by bird flu in the Southern region. Store additions continued at a
healthy pace during the quarter. RBA is our top pick in QSR.
Pressure on profitability:
With underlying growth remaining weak, companies witnessed an adverse impact on
their unit economics. Both restaurant margin and EBITDA margin (pre-Ind AS) saw YoY and QoQ contractions.
The EBITDA margin (pre-Ind AS) expanded YoY for JUBI and RBA; however, it contracted on a QoQ basis.
Outperformer (4Q):
Jubilant Foodworks, RBA
Underperformer (4Q):
Devyani
Guidance highlights:
JUBI:
LFL growth in the near term may remain elevated due to a lower base. Delivery LFL is expected to continue
growing and support overall LFL growth. JUBI is targeting ~100bp gross margin expansion over the next three
quarters, backed by cost optimization initiatives and reduced discounting. The company continues to maintain 2-
2.5 years of payback period for its new stores.
Devyani:
The company is currently in discussions with Yum regarding a turnaround plan for PH, which is
expected to be ready by the end of 1QFY26. KFC’s ROM could reach 19-20% at an ADS level of INR100K over the
next few quarters. Devyani is adopting strategic measures to achieve this.
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Westlife:
Over the next couple of years, the company expects to reach mid- to high-single-digit SSSG levels. It
expects to maintain gross margins at ~70% in the near term, with EBITDA margin guidance at 18-20% for FY27.
The company has opened 41 restaurants in FY25 and reached to 438 stores. The company also aims to expand
its network to 580-630 restaurants by 2027.
Sapphire:
The company expects PH to deliver low single-digit ROM over the next 12-18 months. It aims to
maintain its KFC expansion run rate of 70-80 stores annually, while adopting a cautious approach for PH, with
20-25 net store additions per year. In Sri Lanka, it plans high single-digit store additions over the next two years.
RBA:
BK plans to open 60-80 new restaurants each year and reach 800 restaurants by FY29 from the current
count of 513 restaurants. The company will take a call on its Indonesia market’s operations over the next 2-3
quarters.
Barbeque:
SSSG recovery is expected to be gradual as the competitive intensity remains elevated. In the long
term, the company expects ROM of ~18% for mature stores and ~16% on a blended basis for its Indian business.
Total cash requirement for FY26 is estimated at INR1.4b, including INR0.2b for maintenance and INR1.2b for
new store openings.
Exhibit 66: Quarterly trends
Particulars
1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
Revenue Growth (%)
Barbeque Nation
209%
41%
14%
12%
3%
-3%
1%
6%
-6%
1%
-1%
-2%
Devyani (Consol)
100%
45%
27%
28%
20%
10%
7%
39%
44%
49%
54%
16%
-KFC
109%
47%
27%
26%
22%
15%
14%
11%
7%
7%
9%
3%
-Pizza hut
71%
36%
18%
16%
11%
2%
-2%
-4%
-1%
0%
6%
8%
Jubilant (Standalone)
41%
17%
10%
8%
6%
5%
3%
6%
10%
9%
19%
19%
Sapphire
80%
36%
17%
13%
20%
14%
12%
13%
10%
8%
14%
13%
-KFC
98%
36%
26%
24%
21%
19%
16%
16%
11%
9%
12%
12%
-Pizza hut
85%
60%
20%
18%
12%
-6%
-4%
-3%
3%
3%
10%
5%
Restaurant Brands (Consol)
64%
47%
21%
29%
25%
19%
15%
16%
6%
1%
6%
6%
Restaurant Brands (Standalone)
125%
50%
32%
36%
25%
23%
20%
20%
16%
9%
11%
12%
Westlife
108%
49%
28%
22%
14%
7%
-2%
1%
0%
1%
9%
7%
SSSG
Barbeque Nation
182%
23%
-1%
-3%
-8%
-11%
-5%
1%
-7%
-3%
-2%
-2%
Devyani - KFC
64%
13%
3%
2%
-1%
-4%
-5%
-7%
-7%
-7%
-4%
-6%
Devyani - PH
32%
3%
-6%
-3%
-5%
-10%
-13%
-14%
-9%
-6%
-1%
1%
Jubilant (LFL)
28%
8%
0%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-3%
0%
3%
3%
13%
12%
Sapphire - KFC
65%
15%
3%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-3%
-6%
-8%
-3%
-1%
Sapphire - PH
47%
23%
-4%
-4%
-9%
-20%
-19%
-15%
-7%
-3%
5%
1%
Restaurant Brands
66%
27%
9%
8%
4%
4%
3%
2%
3%
-3%
-1%
5%
Westlife
97%
40%
20%
14%
7%
1%
-9%
-5%
-7%
-7%
3%
1%
Gross profit margin (%)
Barbeque Nation
66.8% 66.1% 66.7% 65.8% 64.0% 65.9% 67.9% 68.9% 68.1% 68.1% 68.2% 68.5%
Devyani (Consol)
71.1% 70.2% 69.3% 69.6% 70.8% 70.8% 70.6% 69.2% 69.2% 69.3% 68.7% 68.5%
-KFC
69.0% 67.9% 67.6% 68.6% 69.7% 69.0% 69.4% 69.9% 69.5% 69.0% 68.6% 68.3%
-Pizza hut
76.2% 74.5% 73.6% 73.2% 74.9% 75.7% 75.8% 77.3% 76.8% 76.7% 76.2% 75.6%
Jubilant (Standalone)
76.7% 76.2% 75.5% 75.3% 76.0% 76.4% 76.7% 76.6% 76.1% 76.1% 75.1% 74.5%
Sapphire
67.9% 66.4% 67.1% 67.9% 68.5% 68.7% 68.9% 68.9% 68.6% 68.8% 68.6% 68.2%
-KFC
67.3% 65.6% 66.5% 66.8% 68.1% 67.9% 68.4% 68.3% 68.2% 68.3% 68.2% 68.0%
-Pizza hut
75.3% 74.7% 74.4% 74.3% 75.1% 76.1% 75.7% 75.5% 76.1% 76.5% 75.6% 74.8%
Restaurant Brands (Consol)
64.3% 64.6% 63.6% 64.1% 64.0% 64.2% 64.4% 64.2% 64.5% 64.9% 65.6% 65.3%
Restaurant Brands (Standalone)
66.4% 66.4% 66.4% 66.4% 66.5% 66.8% 67.1% 67.7% 67.6% 67.5% 67.8% 67.8%
Westlife
68.0% 69.3% 70.2% 71.9% 70.6% 70.1% 70.3% 70.2% 70.6% 69.7% 70.1% 70.0%
EBITDA Pre-Ind AS margins (%)
Barbeque Nation
13.7% 10.0% 10.3%
3.8%
4.6%
4.5% 11.0%
6.4%
6.9%
5.4% 10.3%
6.5%
Devyani (Consol)
16.1% 15.1% 14.8% 12.1% 13.2% 11.5%
9.3%
9.2% 11.6%
9.4% 10.1%
8.9%
Jubilant
17.4% 17.2% 14.7% 12.3% 13.4% 13.3% 12.9% 10.9% 11.6% 11.7% 12.4% 11.8%
Sapphire
13.2% 11.1% 12.4% 10.0% 11.8% 10.6% 10.8%
8.6%
9.8%
8.5% 10.7%
7.1%
Restaurant Brands (Consol)
-2.2% -2.9% -2.4% -3.6% -0.3%
1.5%
2.8% -0.5%
1.3%
0.6%
2.1%
2.3%
Restaurant Brands (India)
1.1%
3.2%
4.2%
1.5%
2.4%
5.4%
6.8%
2.4%
3.6%
5.0%
6.2%
5.4%
Westlife
13.0% 13.4% 14.3% 12.0% 12.9% 11.9% 11.4%
8.7%
8.1%
7.7%
9.1%
7.6%
ADS ('000')
Barbeque Nation
179
168
172
144
170
158
175
153
155
153
162
141
June 2025
34
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Particulars
1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
Devyani
-KFC
127
121
116
106
117
109
104
93
104
96
96
83
-Pizza hut
44
45
43
39
40
39
37
32
36
35
35
31
Jubilant (Standalone)
85
84
84
78
79
78
78
75
79
78
84
82
Sapphire
-KFC
144
134
136
127
138
125
125
114
122
111
115
108
-Pizza hut
61
64
58
50
52
48
45
41
48
47
48
42
Restaurant Brands (India)
120
127
120
108
120
126
119
105
119
118
114
108
Westlife
181
189
199
173
189
185
176
157
170
168
173
153
Store (India)
Barbeque Nation
195
205
212
216
212
212
210
217
219
222
226
230
Devyani India
961 1,047 1,120 1,184 1,230 1,298 1,387 1,429 1,473 1,557 1,658 1,664
-KFC
391
423
461
490
510
540
590
596
617
645
689
696
-Pizza hut
436
466
483
506
521
535
565
567
570
593
644
630
Jubilant
1,676 1,753 1,814 1,863 1,891 1,949 2,007 2,096 2,148 2,199 2,266 2,304
Sapphire
516
550
599
627
660
692
725
748
762
784
835
836
-KFC
281
301
325
341
358
381
406
429
442
461
496
502
-Pizza hut
235
249
274
286
302
311
319
319
320
323
339
334
Restaurant Brands
328
334
379
391
396
404
441
455
456
464
510
513
Westlife
331
337
341
357
361
370
380
397
403
408
421
438
PBT Margins
Barbeque Nation
6.6%
2.2%
2.0% -4.5% -1.7% -5.0%
2.3% -0.3% -1.8% -3.3%
1.4% -5.6%
Devyani (Consol)
10.9%
9.4%
9.3%
5.5%
7.1%
4.0%
1.1%
0.4%
3.1% -0.1%
0.4% -1.7%
Jubilant (Standalone)
13.2% 12.6%
9.1%
7.4%
7.7%
7.2%
6.0%
3.8%
4.7%
4.8%
4.9%
4.3%
Sapphire
6.5%
4.8%
5.6%
2.2%
5.1%
3.3%
2.1%
0.1%
1.6%
0.8%
2.2%
0.6%
Restaurant Brands (Consol)
-10.4% -10.5% -10.6% -15.6% -8.8% -7.3% -6.2% -12.4% -7.5% -10.3% -8.6% -9.6%
Restaurant Brands (Standalone)
-6.7% -3.6% -3.0% -6.7% -5.2% -2.1% -1.4% -7.1% -5.5% -3.4% -3.8% -5.2%
Westlife
5.9%
7.4%
7.9%
5.1%
6.6%
4.9%
3.9%
0.4%
0.7%
0.1%
1.0%
0.2%
CONSUMER DURABLES: Robust growth in C&W, weather dampens UCP demand in season
Strong revenue growth, above our estimates:
Revenue for our consumer durables coverage universe increased
21% YoY to INR234.3b in 4QFY25 (+4% vs. our estimates). As expected, the cable and wire (C&W) segment saw
strong growth, led by a pick-up in government capex, consistent strong demand in the power sector (including
renewable energy), real estate, and higher export demand. The C&W segment’s aggregate revenue increased
26% YoY to INR129.4b (+5% vs. our estimates) in 4QFY25. UCP segment also reported strong revenue growth,
driven by increased channel inventory in anticipation of strong demand during the summer season. The UCP
segment’s aggregate revenue (coverage companies) grew 24% YoY to INR53.3b (+4% vs. our estimate) in
4QFY25. Revenue growth for KEII/RRKABEL/Polycab/HAVL/VOLT stood at 26%/26%/25%/20%/13% YoY. Demand
in C&W segment is expected to continue to grow, backed by power segment, development of electric vehicle
(EV) infrastructure, other infrastructure projects such as railways, metro, and highways, and industrial demand.
Meanwhile, a delayed summer and early rains in south and west regions led to subdued demand for cooling
products in the secondary market.
C&W margin flat YoY, whereas UCP margin improves:
Overall EBIT margin in C&W segment remained flat YoY at
13% (+1pp vs. our estimates). EBIT margins in UCP segment improved 1.5pp YoY to 8.6%. Aggregate EBITDA for
our coverage universe grew ~34% YoY to INR26.1b (+10% vs. our estimates) and EBITDA margin improved 1.1pp
YoY to ~11% (+60bp vs. our estimates). VOLT’s EBITDA grew 75% YoY to INR3.3b, albeit on a low base. Its UCP
segment margin improved 80bp YoY (+4.0pp QoQ) to ~10%. EBITDA of RRKABEL/POLYCAB/KEII/HAVL surged by
~69%/35%/23%/19% YoY in 4QFY25.
EPS upgrades/downgrades and change in valuation multiple:
We raise our EPS estimates for POLYCAB (4%/5%
for FY26/FY27), KEII (6%/7% for FY26/FY27), RRKABEL (~11% for FY26) and HAVL (~3% for FY26/FY27 each). We
reduced our valuation multiple for the UCP segment of VOLT to 45x FY27E EPS (from 50x), reflecting uncertainty
surrounding the summer season.
Top picks:
We remain positive on POLYCAB
Surprises:
KEII, RRKABEL, POLYCAB, HAVL
June 2025
35
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Guidance highlights:
POLYCAB:
It indicated C&W demand remains strong, led by good demand from the real estate sector,
improvement in corporate investments, and government capex activities. Margin expansion in C&W was led by
higher operating leverage, while the FMEG segment benefitted from a richer product mix and better absorption
of fixed costs. It maintains guidance of long-term sustainable EBITDA margin of ~11-13% for C&W, while FMEG
segment’s margin is likely to improve to ~8-10% in the next five years.
KEII:
The company noted that the demand outlook remains positive, aided by infrastructure expansion in power,
data center, EVs and transportation. The company has guided for ~17-18% growth in FY26, which should
accelerate to ~20% from FY27 after the commissioning of its Sanand plant. EBITDA margins are expected to
remain in the range of 10.5-11.0%, with a 50bp improvement by FY27-28 on better operating leverage.
RRKABEL:
It indicated strong volume growth of ~14% YoY/24% QoQ in C&W aided by strong demand in domestic
and export markets. It is targeting a CAGR of ~25% in cable volume in the next two years, supported by capacity
expansion, market share gain and higher exports. It expects to improve OPM to double digits (1pp improvement
p.a.) by FY28 vs. 6.4% in FY25. It reiterated that FMEG segment would achieve EBITDA break-even by FY26.
HAVL:
It highlighted that the large appliances and cables fueled revenue growth during the quarter. The ramp-
up of new capacity in the C&W segment is underway. HAVL’s margin would reach a normalized level (ex-Lloyd)
of 13.5- 14.0%, as the benefits of operating leverage kick in. Delayed summer has affected secondary demand in
the ongoing season and the growth trajectory in the rest of the season needs to be seen.
VOLT:
The company said that margin improvement in the UCP segment was led by a better product mix and
higher demand for large-capacity/energy-efficient products, which enjoy slightly better margins. Unseasonal
rains in a few parts of the country hit secondary sales in the initial few days (30-40 days) of the summer season.
An extended summer season is anticipated, which should help make up for the volume lost in the last few days.
In FY25, VOLT’s UCP volume grew ~37% YoY. It projects double-digit growth in FY26.
Exhibit 68: Aggregate* UCP EBIT and margin
UCP EBIT (INR b)
UCP EBIT Margin (%)
7
4
7
9
4
3
UCP revenue (INR b)
123
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 67: Aggregate* UCP revenue and growth
13
9
50
6
4
6
3
0
0.6
6
2
36 30 31
3
24
19
18
16 17
8 17
30
28 18 24
1
3
22 15 13 16 28 32 15 18 33 38 17 21 43 57 22 25 53
-0.1
Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In UCP revenue and EBIT we consider VOLT and HAVL
Exhibit 69: Aggregate* C&W revenue and growth
Cables and wires Revenue (INR b)
32
26
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 70: Aggregate* C&W EBIT and margin
Cables and Wires EBIT (INR b)
12
12
13
12
EBIT Margin (%)
13
11
10
11
22
14
17
11
102
89
21
14
103
100
129
10
11
10
13
81
85
88
10
10
11
17
Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In Cables and Wires revenue and EBIT we considered Polycab, KEII, HAVL and RRKABEL
June 2025
36
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
EMS: Strong order books drive revenue growth
Continued strong revenue growth across EMS players:
The EMS sector reported another robust quarter, with
aggregate revenue surging 71% YoY to INR171b. This exceptional growth was driven by the execution of a strong
order book. Dixon led the pack with revenue surging 2.2x YoY, followed by DATAPATT (up 2.2x), Avalon (58%),
KAYNES (54%), and Amber (34%). Cyient DLM also witnessed healthy growth, with revenue rising 18% YoY, although it
was lower compared to the EMS industry. Syrma remained the only outlier, with revenue declining ~18% YoY, due to
the execution of low-volume, high-margin orders. Looking ahead, we expect strong revenue momentum to continue,
led by healthy demand traction and the execution of large orders in hand (~INR163.4b as of Mar’25; excluding Dixon
and Amber, i.e. ~1.7x the TTM revenue of these companies). For our coverage universe, we expect an aggregate
revenue growth of ~34% in FY26 and a CAGR of 31% over FY25-FY27.
Order book (ex-Dixon, Amber) continues to remain healthy, with new clients to drive growth going forward:
The
sector continued to witness healthy order inflows (INR32b) in 4QFY25. Most companies expect order inflows to
accelerate going forward, fueled by inflows from newly added clients and robust market conditions supported by
favorable regulatory policies. Additionally, EMS companies are witnessing rising order inflows from high-margin
segments like Aerospace, Industrials, Automotive, and Critical Infrastructure. Among our coverage universe, Kaynes
witnessed the highest order book growth of ~60% YoY, followed by Avalon/Syrma at ~+29%/19% YoY. Meanwhile,
CYIENTDL continues to see a declining order book trend (down 12% YoY/11% QoQ).
Margins continue to expand, led by operating efficiency and favorable business mix, barring DATAPATT and
Amber:
EBITDA margin for our coverage universe marginally expanded 20bp YoY, led by an expansion across all
companies except DATAPATT (EBITDA margin contracted 1,330bp) and Amber (EBITDA margin contracted ~10bp
YoY). SYRMA witnessed the highest EBITDA margin expansion of ~510bp YoY, benefitting from a favorable
business mix during the quarter (lower share of low-margin consumer business at 21% in 4QFY25 vs. 46% in
4QFY24). It was followed by AVALON (up 410bp), led by an increase in domestic manufacturing (87% vs. 77% in
4QFY24), while KAYNES’ margin expanded 210bp YoY, led by the execution of high-margin orders. Favorable
operating leverage also played a role in margin expansion for these companies.
Going forward, we expect
margins for our coverage universe to expand gradually, led by the execution of high-margin orders and
operating leverage.
The quarter experienced one earnings downgrade:
We have downgraded our earnings estimates for Amber by
8%/each for FY26/FY27 to factor in higher losses from JV and a higher tax rate. For the rest of the coverage
universe, we broadly maintain our earnings estimate for FY26/27.
Surprises:
DATAPATT;
Misses:
DIXON and Amber
Guidance highlights:
Kaynes
has guided for revenue growth of over 60% (including acquisitions), along with a 50bp margin expansion
in its core EMS segment. The company’s FY26 capex will be focused on semiconductor and HDI PCB projects,
with maintenance-only investments in core EMS. The INR34b OSAT and INR14b HDI PCB capex will be largely
incurred in FY26/FY27.
Avalon
has guided for an 18-20% growth in revenue, with significant growth anticipated in 2HFY26. The
company has secured several new projects that have moved from the design/prototype stage to the production
stage. Many of these are expected to ramp up in the current financial year. A capex of INR450-500m is planned
for FY26, which may include investments in a new export facility in Chennai and a domestic facility located
~30km away from the existing Tamil Nadu facility.
Syrma SGS
expects an EBITDA margin of ~8% in FY26, translating into INR4b in absolute terms. Strategically,
management aims to reduce its exposure to low-margin, high-volume business. Even in the consumer business,
the company plans to continue growing its high-margin ODM segment. In exports, the company is confident of
crossing INR10b in FY26.
Cyient DLM:
Margins are expected to remain in double digits on a full-year basis, though 1QFY26 may be softer.
Order book remains under pressure as consumption growth by major clients outpaces new order growth.
37
June 2025
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
However, management anticipates strong traction in the North American market, supported by ongoing
discussions with three big global players.
DATAPATT
maintains its revenue guidance of ~20-25% growth over the next two to three years while
maintaining EBITDA margins at around 35-40% for FY26. Additional contracts under Brahmos are expected to
materialize in the near term. Management is strategically deploying funds to accelerate product development,
with a substantial portion allocated to expanding its R&D capabilities.
Amber Enterprises
expects strong growth across segments, with the Consumer Durables division targeting 10-
12% YoY growth in Room ACs and 20-30% in Commercial ACs for FY26. The Electronics division aims for 30-40%
annual revenue growth, with margins reaching 10-12% over two years, driven by demand from the industrial,
automotive, defense, and aerospace sectors. Planned capex stands at INR8-9b (INR5b excluding ECMS), while
the Railways segment is set to double its revenue over the next two years.
Dixon Technologies
expects mobile phone volumes to reach 43-44m units in FY26 and 60-65m in FY27. IT
hardware revenue is guided at INR12-15b in FY26, reaching INR20b by FY27. In consumer durables, refrigerator
revenue is set to grow 50% in FY26, with margins of 9.5-10.5%, supported by capacity expansion from 1.2m to 2m
units. The home appliances segment is focused on portfolio diversification to drive margin expansion and sustain
growth. The lighting JV with Signify will begin operations in 2QFY26. Capex for FY26 is estimated at INR9-10b.
Revenue (INR m)
4Q
4Q
YoY
3Q
QoQ
FY25 FY24 (%)
FY25
(%)
9,845 6,373 54
6,612
49
3,428 2,168 58
2,809
22
4,281 3,618 18
4,442
-4
9,244 11,341 -18
8,692
6
3,962 1,823 117 1,170 239
1,02,925 46,580 121 1,04,537 -2
37,537 28,055 34 21,333 76
1,71,221 99,958 71 1,49,595 14
30,759 25,323 21 23,725 30
EBITDA margins (%)
4Q
YoY
2Q
FY24 (bp) FY25
14.9 210 14.2
7.9
410 12.3
10.5 290
8.1
6.5
510
9.1
51.0 -1330 46.2
3.9
40
3.7
7.9
-10
7.4
7.2
10
5.7
12.5 450 12.6
Adj PAT (INR m)
4Q
YoY
3Q
QoQ
FY24 (%) FY25 (%)
813
43
665
75
71
244
240
1
227
36
168
84
349
87
509
28
711
60
447
155
952
94 1,712
8
947
NA
359
224
4,070 60 4,099 59
2,171 62 2,029 73
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 71: Key operating indicators
4Q
FY25
17.1
12.1
13.4
11.6
37.7
4.3
7.9
7.4
17.0
QoQ
(bp)
280
-30
530
250
-840
60
40
170
450
4Q
FY25
1,162
243
310
654
1,141
1,845
1,160
6,516
3,510
Kaynes
Avalon
Cyient DLM
Syrma SGS
Data Patterns
Dixon
Amber
Agg.
Agg. (ex. Dixon, Amber)
Exhibit 72: Aggregate EBITDA margin
Aggregate EBITDA Margins
Exhibit 73: Aggregate gross margin
Aggregate Gross Margins
7.9%
6.3%
5.7%
6.0%
7.2%
5.5%
7.4%
16.2% 16.2% 15.6% 15.4%
16.0%
18.2%17.7%
13.9% 14.1%
5.1%
5.7%
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
FY27E
Chg (%)
0
-8
0
-4
-4
-5
2
Rev
242
160
132
25
22
21
64
Old
242
174
134
25
22
21
62
Chg (%)
0
-8
-1
1
1
-3
3
Exhibit 74:
Our revised EPS estimates (INR)
FY26E
Dixon
Amber
Kaynes
Avalon
Cyient DLM
Syrma SGS
Data Patterns
Rev
169
104
84
16
15
15
50
Old
168
114
84
17
16
15
49
June 2025
38
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
FINANCIALS – BANKS: Healthy other income propels earnings growth, while credit cost
challenges persist; NIM outcome divergent, with large PVBs witnessing improvement
The banking sector witnessed a mixed quarter, with business momentum gaining a mild pace in a busy 4Q.
However, the margin outcome was divergent for the private and public banks. Most of the large private banks
had seen a sequential improvement in NIMs amid lower-day adjustments in 4Q, while public banks continue to
see a moderation in NIMs, although calibrated at low single digits. CASA mix improved for large banks amid
seasonal CA flows in 4Q, while small- and mid-sized banks saw a marginal decline in the CASA ratio. Opex
continued to grow within a narrow range, barring some PSBs that had seen a one-off increase in opex pertaining
to the PLI expenses. In contrast, other income improved amid higher fee income, better treasury income, and SR
provision write-backs for public banks. Overall business momentum has improved in a busy 4Q, while a high CD
ratio for the system has led to a decline in credit growth for the industry. Growth in corporate was sluggish,
while growth in unsecured saw a sharp moderation amid stress in MFI, PL, and CC. We tweak our earnings for
the private banks while cutting our earnings estimate for PSBs (largely driven by SBI). We will keenly monitor the
asset quality in the unsecured segment. We estimate a credit growth of 12% for the sector for FY26.
NII growth stood at ~6% YoY for private banks and 1.2% YoY for PSBs. Within our coverage universe, HDFCB,
ICICI, and AU Bank reported healthy NII growth among private banks, while among PSBs, Canara and SBI
reported healthy NII growth. That said, IIB, BoB, Federal, and Bandhan reported a decline in NII. Hereon, we
believe that NII growth shall continue to grow at a moderate pace with slow business momentum as well as due
to declining policy rates in FY26E. The NIM trajectory is likely to witness pressure in 1HFY26, while some
improvement can be observed in 2HFY26 as the reduction in repo rates should benefit the CoF. In 4QFY25, NIMs
for large PVBs witnessed a one-off improvement due to the lower number of days adjustment, while PSBs
reported a single-digit NIM contraction. With a steeper rate cut cycle imminent, we estimate FY26 NIM to
remain under pressure, with 1H experiencing more pressure and 2H witnessing some improvement.
Fresh slippages continue to remain elevated for the banks amid sustained stress in the MFI business. Our
channel checks, as well as lenders, have indicated slower business momentum and a cautious approach in the
unsecured business. Credit costs for select players continued to remain elevated, with most mid-sized private
banks witnessing pressure in 4QFY25 and FY25. With the new MFIN guardrails being implemented in 1HFY26,
the growth shall experience a hiccup, while asset quality is likely to improve. We expect credit costs to remain
elevated in 1HFY26 and expect moderation in credit costs in 2HFY26. PCR for the banks remained healthy, while
the restructured book continued a declining trend.
Private Sector Banks – Business momentum witnesses a mild recovery; margin sees a one-off improvement:
Advances growth stood at 3.2% QoQ for our banking universe coverage. HDFCB surprised and grew 4% QoQ,
while IDFC First and DCB reported healthy growth in advances. However, IndusInd reported a sharp decline in
advances as the bank voluntarily let go of its corporate book due to a bank run in deposits. Deposits for our
banking universe grew at 4.8% QoQ, amid heavy seasonal flow in the CA deposits in 4Q. As a result, the CASA
ratio for our coverage universe stood at 37.8%. NIMs for most of the large private banks improved in 4Q amid a
lower number of days adjustment. Slippages were under control for most of the large private banks, while they
stood elevated for unsecured players.
Public Sector Banks – NIM experiences a mild contraction; asset quality well under control:
NII for the PSBs
stood broadly flat at 1.4% QoQ, as NIMs continue to dip marginally for all PSBs. NII slid for BOB/PNB and dipped
3.5%/2.5% QoQ, while SBI, Canara, and Union improved ~3% QoQ. Slippages remained under control for most
banks, reflecting no imminent signs of stress for the banks. The GNPA ratio improved 17-40bp QoQ, while the
PCR continued to be at healthy levels at ~75-90%. SMA for most of the PSBs is manageable, while restructured
books witnessed a decline in 4Q.
Small Finance Banks – Business growth healthy; NIMs continue to dip:
AUBANK reported healthy business
growth as advances grew 46% YoY (merged basis, 7.6% QoQ), led by healthy traction in retail (wheels) and
commercial (BB). Deposit growth was steadfast at 42.5% YoY/ 10.7% QoQ, whereas the CASA ratio moderated to
29.2%. Asset quality ratios were steady, with the GNPA ratio at 2.28%, while the NNPA ratio declined to 0.74%.
However, the credit cost ratio stood elevated and offset healthy other income gains. The bank has ramped up its
June 2025
39
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
PCR ratio to 68% in 4QFY25. EQUITASB reported modest advances growth of 17% YoY/2.3% QoQ, as the bank
continued to focus on moving its dependency away from the MFI segment. Deposit growth was healthy at 5.8%
QoQ, led by healthy flow in the CA deposits. While NIM continued to dip 26bp QoQ to 7.13%, slippages declined
marginally in 4Q, although they continued to remain elevated. This was because the bank continued to make
provisions to sustain the sub-1% NNPA levels.
Our view:
Following the sharp earnings cut throughout FY25 owing to slow growth as well as stress piling up in
the unsecured segments, 4Q turned out to be a relatively stable quarter across the banking industry. Banks with
higher exposure to unsecured loans saw deteriorating asset quality as well as higher credit costs throughout
FY25. We estimate credit growth to be maintained at 12% YoY for FY26. We maintain our cautious view on the
margin trajectory given the low inflation trends and risk of more rate cuts along with elevated stress in the
unsecured segments. We believe the credit cost shall remain elevated in 1HFY26 and thereafter shall see a
reduction in credit costs from 2HFY26 onwards. We thus expect private banks’ aggregate earnings to report a
15.1% CAGR over FY25-27. For PSBs, we expect the earnings CAGR for FY25-27 to be at 7%. We estimate our
overall coverage universe earnings to clock 11.5% CAGR. A healthy balance sheet, healthy PCR, and contingent
buffers well in place shall keep the earnings downside well protected and positive for the sector.
Our preferred
picks
are ICICIBC, HDFCB, SBIN, and AUBANK.
Surprises: ICICIBC, HDFCB, and AUBANK
Misses: BoB, IIB, and BANDHAN
Guidance highlights
HDFCB
continues to focus on healthy traction in deposit growth and targets to bring the CD ratio below 90% by
FY27, with adjustments to the CD ratio not steep. The bank is focused on increasing its branches and is doing 2x
in terms of opening branches vs. five years ago. The goal is to have the wallet share of the customer in whatever
form it comes.
KMB
is focused on increasing the share of unsecured loans, which has dropped to 10.5% of total advances vs.
12.7% a year back. The bank aims to increase this towards the mid-teen range, with a strong focus on credit
cards and upcoming product launches. Advances are expected to grow at 1.5–2.0x of nominal GDP. The bank is
addressing repo rate cuts by managing deposit costs and has aligned its SA rates with industry benchmarks.
ICICIBC
continues to have a strategic focus on growing PBT through a 360-degree customer approach. Banks are
reducing deposit rates after the RBI has cut the policy rates. The bank has seen improvement in liquidity over the
last few months, and deposit growth has been quite strong. Upcoming rate cuts are likely to affect margins, with a
lag in deposit repricing. Despite falling deposit rates, NIMs may see some pressure.
AXSB's
business growth has been a laggard to peers. Loan growth – HL, VF, and corporate have been lagging
behind the system average growth. Deposit growth has been lower compared to other private banks, but the
bank remains focused on improving the quality and granularity of deposits. The bank will manage margins by
managing the balance sheet on the asset side better, with some mix change to be seen.
SBIN
expects credit growth to remain at ~12-13%. The bank aims to maintain RoA at ~1% levels on an annual
basis (with some quarterly variances). The bank aims to keep the C/I ratio below ~50-51%. RoE to be maintained
above +15% across business cycles.
IIB’s
loan book declined sharply by 6% QoQ to INR3.45t, led by a reduction in the corporate book for liquidity and
balance sheet management efforts. Reported NIMs contracted to 2.25% (down 168bp QoQ), while adjusted NIMs
stood at 3.47% vs. our estimate of 3.78%. The financial impact of all identified issues has been taken into account for
FY25. The bank aspires to start FY26 on a clean slate.
BOB’s
advances growth stood healthy at 13.5%, with the bank maintaining its advances growth guidance. NIMs
are expected to be maintained at 3% in FY26, similar to FY25-exit-quarter levels, with 1Q26 witnessing continued
pressure. NIMs are expected to see some improvement from 2HFY26 onwards. Segment-wise growth is
expected to remain the same. Corporate book is expected to stand at 10% YoY. RAM is expected to grow at 15%
YoY.
June 2025
40
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 75: PPoP growth led by healthy other income, credit costs elevated for select private banks. NIMs improved for large
private banks and dipped marginally for PSBs
INR b
AUBANK
AXSB
BANDHAN
BoB
CBK
DCBB
FB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IDFCFB
IIB
INBK
KMB
PNB
RBK
SBIN
UNBK
EQUITASFB
Total Banking Coverage
4QFY25
20.9
138.1
27.6
110.2
94.4
5.6
23.8
320.7
211.9
49.1
30.5
63.9
72.8
107.6
15.6
427.7
95.1
8.3
1823.8
NII
YoY (%)
56.6
5.5
(3.9)
(6.6)
(1.4)
9.9
8.3
10.3
11.0
9.8
(43.3)
6.2
5.4
3.8
(2.3)
2.7
0.8
5.5
3.5
QoQ (%)
3.5
1.5
(2.6)
(3.5)
3.2
2.8
(2.2)
4.6
4.0
0.1
(41.7)
(0.4)
1.2
(2.5)
(1.4)
3.2
3.0
1.3
0.8
4QFY25
12.9
107.5
15.7
81.3
82.8
3.1
14.7
265.4
176.6
18.1
-4.9
50.2
54.7
67.8
8.6
312.9
77.0
3.1
1347.5
PPOP
YoY (%)
94.6
2.1
(14.5)
0.3
12.1
30.7
32.0
(9.4)
17.5
8.9
NA
16.6
0.2
5.6
(2.9)
8.8
17.9
(16.9)
1.6
QoQ (%)
7.2
2.1
(22.3)
6.1
5.7
12.6
(6.6)
6.1
4.6
3.0
NA
5.7
5.6
2.3
(13.6)
32.8
2.8
(6.5)
5.9
PAT
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
5.0
35.9
(4.7)
71.2
(0.2)
12.9
3.2
482.0
(25.5)
50.5
3.3
4.3
50.0
33.1
21.9
1.8
13.8
16.9
10.3
13.7
7.8
176.2
6.7
5.3
126.3
18.0
7.1
3.0
(58.0)
(10.4)
-23.3
NA
NA
29.6
31.6
3.6
35.5
(14.1)
7.5
45.7
51.7
1.3
0.7
(80.5)
110.5
186.4
(9.9)
10.4
49.8
50.6
8.3
0.4
(79.7)
(36.5)
822.3
0.9
3.0
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 76: NIM outcome divergent, with large PVBs witnessing a NIM uptick; mid-sized PVBs and PSBs experienced a
contraction in NIMs in 4QFY25
NIM (%)
AUBANK
AXSB
BANDHAN
BoB
CBK
DCBB
FB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IDFCFB
IIB
INBK
KMB
PNB
RBK
SBIN
UNBK
3QFY25
5.90
3.93
6.90
2.94
2.71
3.30
3.11
3.43
4.25
6.04
3.93
3.57
4.93
2.93
4.90
3.01
2.91
4QFY25
5.80
3.97
6.70
2.86
2.73
3.29
3.12
3.54
4.41
5.95
2.25
3.48
4.97
2.81
4.89
3.00
2.87
YoY (bp)
70
(9)
(90)
(41)
(34)
(33)
(9)
10
1
(40)
(201)
(4)
(31)
(29)
(56)
(30)
(22)
QoQ (bp)
(10)
4
(20)
(8)
2
(1)
1
11
16
(9)
(168)
(9)
4
(12)
(1)
(1)
(4)
Source: MOFSL, Company
June 2025
41
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 77: Overall business momentum saw some mild recovery in 4Q vs. the subdued business growth in 3Q
INR b
AUBANK*
AXSB
BANDHAN
BoB
CBK
DCBB
FB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IDFCFB
IIB
INBK
KMB
PNB
RBK
SBIN
UNBK
Total Banking Coverage
4QFY25
1,071
10,408
1,320
12,096
10,492
510
2,348
26,196
13,418
2,331
3,450
5,711
4,269
10,775
926
41,633
9,535
1,56,489
Loans
YoY (%)
46.4
7.8
9.0
13.5
12.6
24.7
12.1
5.4
13.3
19.8
0.5
10.9
13.5
15.3
10.3
12.4
9.5
11.0
QoQ (%)
7.6
2.6
3.6
5.1
2.5
6.8
1.9
4.0
2.1
4.5
(6.0)
5.3
3.2
0.7
2.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
Deposits
CASA ratio (%)
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
1,243
42.5
10.7
29.2
(380)
(140)
11,730
9.8
7.0
41.0
(200)
200
1,512
11.8
7.2
31.4
(572)
(36)
14,720
10.9
5.7
40.0
(136)
64
14,569
11.0
6.4
31.2
(112)
117
600
21.6
5.9
24.5
(150)
(57)
2,836
12.3
6.5
30.2
85
7
27,147
14.1
5.9
35.0
(320)
100
16,103
14.0
5.9
41.8
(34)
135
2,521
25.7
6.4
46.9
(30)
(80)
4,109
6.8
0.3
32.8
(507)
(208)
7,372
7.1
5.0
38.4
(240)
5
4,991
11.2
5.4
43.0
(250)
70
15,666
14.4
2.4
38.0
(349)
(17)
1,109
7.2
3.9
34.1
(107)
134
53,822
9.5
2.9
40.0
(114)
77
13,097
7.2
7.7
33.5
(68)
9
1,93,147
11.3
4.8
37.8
* AU Bank Nos on merged with Fincare SFB, Source: MOFSL, Company
4QFY25 (%)
NNPA
0.74
0.33
1.28
0.58
0.70
1.12
0.44
0.43
0.39
0.53
0.95
0.19
0.31
0.40
0.29
0.47
0.63
Restructured books
Dec’23
Mar’24
0.18
0.16
NA
NA
3.00
2.62
NA
NA
0.29
0.26
0.48
0.40
0.13
0.10
1.10
0.97
0.63
0.51
0.70
0.60
1.0
NA
0.54
0.47
1.93
1.67
NA
NA
1.57
1.48
NA
NA
QoQ change (bp)
NNPA
(17)
(2)
-
(1)
(19)
(6)
(5)
(3)
(3)
1
27
(2)
(10)
(1)
(24)
(6)
(19)
Exhibit 78: Asset quality ratio improved for most of the banks in 4QFY25
Asset quality
(%)
AUBANK
AXSB
BANDHAN
BoB
CBK
DCBB
FB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IDFCFB
IIB
INBK
KMB
PNB
RBK
SBIN
UNBK
GNPA
2.31
1.46
4.68
2.43
3.34
3.11
1.95
1.42
1.96
1.94
2.25
3.26
1.50
4.09
2.92
2.07
3.85
3QFY25 (%)
NNPA
0.91
0.35
1.28
0.59
0.89
1.18
0.49
0.46
0.42
0.52
0.68
0.21
0.41
0.41
0.53
0.53
0.82
PCR
61.2
76.2
73.5
76.0
74.1
62.9
75.2
67.8
78.7
73.6
70.2
93.8
73.2
90.2
82.2
74.7
79.3
GNPA
2.28
1.28
4.71
2.26
2.94
2.99
1.84
1.33
1.67
1.87
3.13
3.09
1.42
3.95
2.60
1.82
3.60
PCR
68.1
74.6
73.7
74.9
76.7
63.2
76.2
67.9
76.9
72.3
70.2
93.9
78.1
90.3
89.0
74.4
83.1
GNPA
(3)
(18)
3
(17)
(40)
(12)
(11)
(9)
(29)
(7)
88
(17)
(8)
(14)
(32)
(25)
(25)
PCR
683
(162)
19
(116)
258
30
107
3
(187)
(133)
4
9
492
4
685
(24)
382
Exhibit 79: Snapshot of the restructured books across banks (%)
INR b
AXSB
BANDHAN
DCBB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IIB
KMB
FB
RBK
AUBANK
BOB
SBIN
INBK
PNB
UNBK
CBK
Absolute
12.1
NA
8.2
NA
19.6
4.1
2.0
14.3
2.7
3.2
NA
129.2
48.8
NA
89.3
NA
Mar’23
0.22
NA
4.51
0.31
0.40
0.84
0.22
1.62
1.21
1.20
1.5
0.8
2.51
1.32
2.20
NA
Jun’23
0.21
NA
3.97
NA
NA
0.66
0.19
1.40
1.05
1.00
1.31
0.69
2.19
NA
2.00
NA
Sep’23
0.20
NA
3.40
0.22
0.32
0.54
0.15
1.30
0.89
0.80
NA
0.62
2.12
NA
1.71
NA
Jun’24
0.14
NA
2.34
NA
0.22
0.34
0.08
0.83
0.44
0.40
NA
0.38
1.51
NA
1.30
NA
Sep’24
0.13
NA
2.07
NA
0.20
0.29
0.06
0.71
0.38
0.40
NA
0.38
1.34
NA
1.21
NA
Dec’24
0.12
NA
1.81
NA
0.16
0.18
0.05
0.68
0.32
0.30
NA
0.34
1.23
NA
1.08
NA
Mar’25
0.12
NA
1.60
NA
0.15
0.12
0.05
0.61
0.29
0.30
NA
0.31
0.85
NA
0.91
NA
June 2025
42
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 80: We tweak our estimates for private banks and cut our estimates for PSBs by ~2% for FY26E and FY27E
PAT (INR b)
Private Banks
AXSB
BANDHAN
DCBB
HDFCB
ICICIBC
IDFCFB
IIB
KMB
FB
RBK
AUBANK
EQUITASB
Total Private Banks
YoY growth
PSU Banks
BOB
CBK
INBK
PNB
SBIN
UNBK
Total PSU Bank
YoY growth
Total for Banks
YoY growth
Other Financials
SBICARD
PAYTM
FY25E
264.4
28.8
6.0
667.7
466.2
15.1
47.6
139.5
39.4
6.6
20.7
1.8
1,703.7
5.0%
194.3
161.9
108.2
166.1
708.1
176.0
1,514.6
22.8%
3,218.3
12.7%
19.5
-2.3
Old estimates
FY26E
284.5
35.7
7.4
710.5
507.0
29.3
63.3
152.8
44.1
12.2
26.6
6.2
1,879.6
10.3%
202.7
178.3
112.6
193.1
750.6
184.2
1,621.5
7.1%
3,501.1
8.8%
29.2
1.9
FY27E
330.6
41.5
9.5
816.1
584.7
48.8
80.9
180.4
55.6
19.3
35.1
9.9
2,212.5
17.7%
228.9
196.5
124.6
219.8
840.4
200.6
1,810.9
11.7%
4,023.4
14.9%
39.0
10.7
Revised estimates
FY25A
FY26E
FY27E
263.7
27.5
6.2
673.5
472.3
15.2
25.8
137.2
40.5
7.0
21.1
1.5
1,691.3
4.2%
195.8
170.3
109.2
166.3
709.0
179.9
1,530.4
24.0%
3,221.7
12.8%
19.2
-2.3
280.5
31.9
7.6
734.7
519.6
27.7
34.5
152.3
43.9
13.7
27.5
4.5
1,878.4
11.1%
204.2
178.5
113.7
194.5
711.2
184.9
1,587.0
3.7%
3,465.5
7.6%
31.3
1.9
330.5
38.6
9.8
855.1
609.3
49.7
44.4
178.2
54.9
21.5
37.1
10.1
2,239.3
19.2%
225.6
197.5
127.0
223.5
796.1
197.4
1,767.0
11.3%
4,006.4
15.6%
42.9
10.7
FY25E
-0.3%
-4.6%
3.2%
0.9%
1.3%
1.1%
-45.9%
-1.6%
2.8%
6.0%
1.5%
-17.6%
-0.7%
Change (%)
FY26E
-1.4%
-10.7%
2.7%
3.4%
2.5%
-5.4%
-45.5%
-0.3%
-0.3%
12.0%
3.5%
-26.8%
-0.1%
FY27E
0.0%
-7.1%
2.7%
4.8%
4.2%
1.9%
-45.1%
-1.2%
-1.4%
11.7%
5.8%
2.2%
1.2%
0.8%
5.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
2.2%
1.0%
0.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.9%
0.7%
-5.3%
0.4%
-2.1%
-1.0%
-1.5%
0.5%
1.9%
1.7%
-5.3%
-1.6%
-2.4%
-0.4%
-1.3%
NA
7.4%
NA
9.9%
NA
FINANCIALS – NBFC: Muted performance due to macro headwinds; HFCs stand out as most resilient
NBFCs (incl. HFCs) under our coverage reported AUM growth of ~16% YoY/4% QoQ in FY25. Vehicle financiers
(VFs) clocked AUM growth of 20% YoY, but we expect VF loan growth to moderate in FY26. Large HFCs (PNBHF
and LICHF) grew 8% YoY; affordable and small-ticket HFCs saw ~14% YoY growth; NBFC-MFIs’ AUM declined
~17% YoY (down 6% QoQ); and gold loan NBFCs AUM grew ~36% YoY (primarily due to ~41% YoY AUM growth
by MUTH). For our coverage companies (excl. PIEL), NII/PPoP/PAT grew 17%/19%/4% YoY. Excluding MFIs,
NII/PPoP/PAT grew 18%/21%/10% YoY.
For HFCs (including affordable HFCs), NIM showed divergent trends because of company-specific nuances. Large
HFCs, such as PNBHF and LICHF, reported sequential expansion in NIMs. LICHF reported NIM expansion primarily
due to better liquidity management and a ~10bp PLR hike by the company in 1QFY26. However, given that large
HFCs will pass on the declining interest rates to customers effective May/Jun’25, we expect them to exhibit a
transitory NIM compression over the next few quarters. AAVAS reported ~10bp expansion in NIMs, driven by
PLR hike by the company in the previous quarter. For CANF and Repco, NIMs declined ~5bp and ~30bp
respectively. HomeFirst reported broadly stable NIM during the quarter.
VFs did not witness any meaningful improvement in asset quality, resulting in higher net slippages and elevated
credit costs. Lenders acknowledged that the challenging macro (because of weak government capex) resulted in
higher collection efforts, as borrower cash flows remained weak during the large part of this year.
Except for power financiers and HFCs, a vast majority of NBFCs reported stable asset quality or a deterioration
despite the strong seasonality of 4Q. This was attributable to a weak macro-economic environment, tightness in
collections and sluggishness in rural cash flows. NBFCs' asset quality performance in 4QFY25 did not reflect the
typical seasonal strength of the fourth quarter. Credit costs remained elevated for both VFs and diversified
lenders across secured as well as unsecured product segments.
June 2025
43
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
NBFC-MFIs exhibited an improvement in PAR levels across most states during the quarter, except for Karnataka
and Andhra Pradesh. Collection efficiency in Karnataka is expected to normalize by 1QFY26 end. Additionally,
MFIs shared that the recent Tamil Nadu Bill has had no material impact on collection efficiencies in the state. In
4Q, most MFIs continued to accelerate write-offs to clean up the existing stress on the balance sheet and they
guided for credit costs to remain elevated in 1HFY26 as well. Loan growth is likely to pick up from 2HFY26
onward. Select NBFCs like PNBHF, LICHF, PFC, REC, Repco and Aditya Birla Finance reported a sequential
improvement in asset quality.
HFCs/AHFCs – Disbursement momentum improved sequentially; NIM could exhibit transitory compression in a
declining rate cycle:
Mortgage lenders delivered healthy disbursement and loan growth, aided by an
improvement in the operating environment in select regions of Karnataka and Telangana. The issues in
Hyderabad are fully resolved, while disbursements in Karnataka have recovered to ~85-95% of normal levels.
This resulted in HFCs exhibiting a healthy sequential growth in disbursements during the quarter. Loan growth
remained muted for LICHF, while Aavas saw a minor moderation due to the company’s cautious approach
toward lending to over-leveraged borrowers. Affordable HFCs (except Aavas) witnessed a sequential decline in
margins, primarily due to lower yields amid higher competitive intensity. In contrast, larger players like PNBHF
and LICHF reported margin expansion of ~5bps and ~15bps QoQ, respectively, driven by company-specific
factors and PLR hikes. The important thing to note is that most of the HFCs did not take any PLR cuts during the
quarter as the benefit from the decline in the cost of borrowing is yet to reflect meaningfully. However, with a
decline in funding costs expected over the next few quarters, some PLR reductions are likely to be undertaken in
1HFY26. Asset quality remained broadly stable for mortgage financiers during the quarter, with a slight
improvement bias seen in select HFCs.
Vehicle financiers – Weakness persists in CVs, tractors relatively resilient; collections challenging in 4Q:
CV
demand remained subdued during the quarter, impacted by weak government spending and capex, while PVs
saw some recovery. Used vehicle segment also faced sluggish demand, primarily due to limited supply and the
growth was primarily driven by higher ticket sizes rather than volume growth. The tractor segment was the most
resilient, exhibiting strong and sustained demand. Disbursements grew 9% YoY (flat QoQ) for three VFs in our
coverage universe. While SHFL and CIFC have a diversified AUM mix, we have classified them under VFs for this
exercise. SHFL reported sequential NIM compression, primarily due to elevated liquidity levels on its balance
sheet, while margins remained stable for CIFC. In contrast, MMFSL saw a decline in NIMs, driven by lower yields
and the impact of a one-time calibration in computation of interest income.
Diversified financiers – Focused on strengthening secured segments; unsecured segments likely to pick up in
2HFY26:
Credit costs were slightly elevated for diversified lenders amid a weak macro. However, diversified
lenders have now started exhibiting higher confidence in scaling up their personal loan (PL) and MSME
portfolios. The focus within this segment has increasingly shifted toward prime and near-prime customers, with
an emphasis on higher ticket sizes and borrowers with strong CIBIL scores, which shows a more risk-calibrated
lending approach. With the MFI business, LTFH has performed significantly better than the overall industry and
its NBFC-MFI peers. BAF, in our view, would now look to pivot toward growth in its unsecured segments, given
that it is now past the hump of asset quality stress in its B2C segments.
Gold financiers – Robust gold loan growth supported by rising gold prices and non-availability of unsecured
loans; draft gold lending guidelines will remain a key monitorable:
Gold loan growth over the last two quarters
has been accompanied by higher gold prices, decent gold tonnage growth and non-availability of unsecured
loans. MUTH/MGFL reported ~41%/19% YoY growth in gold loans in FY25. Asirvad (subsidiary of MGFL) and
Belstar (subsidiary of MUTH) acknowledged the stress in the MFI segment, which resulted in higher credit costs
in their respective MFI businesses. While MGFL was confident that draft gold lending guidelines will not disrupt
the industry and growth, MUTH acknowledged that LTV norms published in the draft guidelines, if implemented,
will have a near-term impact on the disbursement LTV and growth of MUTH and its peer NBFCs.
Microfinance (MFIs) –Improvement in flow rates led to decline in the PAR accretion; trend reversal on the
horizon within the next two quarters:
NBFC-MFIs witnessed an improvement in PAR levels across most states
during the quarter, except in Karnataka and AP. Collection efficiency is expected to normalize in Karnataka by
end-1QFY26. Credit costs for NBFC-MFIs remained elevated during the quarter because of accelerated write-offs
due to the clean-up of existing stress on the balance sheet. CREDAG indicated that apart from Karnataka, all
other regions have returned to normalcy, reflecting in improved center meeting attendance. We believe that
June 2025
44
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
there is a trend reversal on the horizon in the MFI sector. However, sustained performance over the next 3-4
months will be crucial to validate this recovery as a definitive shift.
Power financiers – Muted loan growth; downward revision in growth guidance; asset quality improves from
resolutions of stressed exposures:
PFC and REC reported a steady quarter, with PFC delivering steady
disbursements and loan growth. However, REC's loan growth fell short of expectations, primarily due to elevated
repayments during the quarter from the distribution and RE segment. PFC/REC reported loan growth of
~13%/11% YoY. PFC and REC reduced its guidance on loan growth primarily due to weaker disbursements
expected from the distribution segment in FY26. NIM was broadly stable for both PFC and REC. Asset quality
continued to improve, driven by resolution of stressed assets like KSK Mahanadi and Corporate Power. However,
both PFC and REC increased standard asset provisioning during the quarter to reflect rating downgrades of
certain DISCOMs.
Our view:
The stress in unsecured retail segment appears to be peaking out now. While the existing stress on
the balance sheet will have to be provided for/written-off, we will start seeing NBFCs pivoting from moderation
(over the last five quarters) to growth in 2HFY26. The interest rate cut cycle, in addition to being margin-
accretive for certain products, will also boost demand and loan growth.
Our preferred ideas are SHFL,
Homefirst, PNBHF and LTFH.
Positive Surprises:
PNBHF, IIFL Finance
Misses:
CREDAG, Poonawalla, Fusion, MGFL, REC, SHFL
Rating Change:
LICHF (Downgrade to Neutral)
Guidance highlights:
a) MMFS guided for mid- to high-teen loan growth over the next 3-5 years; b) MUTH guided for
~15% YoY gold AUM growth for FY26; c) BAF guided for ~24%-25% AUM growth in FY26 and credit costs of 1.85%-
1.95% with RoA of 4.4%-4.6%; d) PNBHF guided for retail recoveries to continue in FY26 and guided for retail loan
growth of ~18%; and e) NBFC-MFIs witnessed improvement in PAR rates and collection efficiencies and guided for
stabilization in credit costs from 2HFY26.
Exhibit 81: PBT (excl. PIEL) grew 1% YoY and 5% QoQ for our NBFC coverage universe*
75
PBT - YoY growth (%)
40
19
21
28
39
22
22
15
7
-1
1
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. PIEL and Indostar
Exhibit 82: LICHF loan growth has lagged the industry, while
PNBHF retail loan growth has been gaining momentum
FY24
Q1 2025
1HFY25
9MFY25
FY25
12 13
Exhibit 83: Loan growth moderated for Aavas, while it was
largely stable for Canfin and Repco
FY24
22 22
20 20
Q1 2025
1HFY25
9MFY25
FY25
11
6
6
18
11
9 10 9
9
9 8 8 7 7
7
7
8
4
4
LICHF
PNBHF
Source: MOFSL, Company;
Note: YoY AUM growth for large HFCs
AAVAS
CANF
Repco
Source: MOFSL, Company;
Note: YoY AUM growth for affordable housing financiers
June 2025
45
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 84: AUM growth for VFs moderated slightly because
of weak macros
FY24
Q1 2025
1HFY25
9MFY25
37 35
24 23
FY25
33
30
Exhibit 85: Gold loan growth picking up pace, aided by
higher gold prices, tonnage growth and customer additions
FY24
Q1 2025
1HFY25
9MFY25
FY25
43
37
27
20
25
18 19
15 17
31
21 21 20
19
17
20 19
17
9
SHFL
MMFS
CIFC
MUTH
MGFL
Source: MOFSL, Company
Note: YoY AUM growth for gold financiers
Source: MOFSL, Company
Note: YoY AUM growth for vehicle financiers
Exhibit 86: PAT (excl. PIEL) grew 5% YoY for our NBFC coverage universe*
INR m
AAVAS
ABCAP (NBFC)
ABCAP (HFC)
BAF
CANF
CIFC
Fivestar
HomeFirst
IIFL Finance
LTHF
LICHF
MMFSL
MASFIN
MGFL
Muthoot
PIEL
PNBHF
PFL
REPCO
SHFL
CREDAG
FUSION
SPANDANA
PFC
REC
Total (excl. PIEL)
4QFY25
2,705
17,854
3,350
98,072
3,485
30,557
5,594
1,726
13,139
24,231
21,664
19,276
1,625
14,439
29,039
8,469
7,279
6,101
1,892
55,655
8,765
2,693
2,052
59,106
61,651
4,91,950
NII
PPOP
PAT
NIM
YoY (%) QoQ (%) 4QFY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 4QFY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 4QFY25 YoY (bp) QoQ (bp)
14
7
2,009
10.5
3.3
1,537
7.8
5.0
6.9
-16.4
11.1
5
3
12,294
7.6
3.1
6,520
11.5
8.7
5.8
-81.9
-11.3
59
16
1,451
65.1
20.1
1,211
27.6
10.2
4.1
-32.0
1.0
22
5
79,675
24.3
2.1
45,456
18.9
5.5
9.6
-36.1
-9.3
6
1
2,946
8.4
1.1
2,339
11.9
10.3
3.7
-9.9
-4.0
30
6
23,315
43.2
9.6
12,667
19.7
16.6
6.8
6.0
-0.5
21
4
3,964
19.2
2.1
2,791
18.2
1.9
19.4
-47.0
-12.8
26
6
1,456
28.3
4.3
1,047
25.4
7.5
5.6
-25.0
-3.2
-20
6
6,582
-16.6
11.1
2,077
-44.4
409.1
3.5
-72.4
8.2
4
-4
14,240
4.6
-3.7
6,358
15.0
1.6
10.0
-112.1
-70.1
-3
8
18,790
-1.3
7.4
13,680
25.4
-4.5
2.9
-29.5
16.1
6
1
12,128
3.4
-0.7
5,631
-9.0
-37.4
6.6
-69.3
-15.1
42
9
1,516
34.7
9.6
808
18.8
3.5
7.6
81.2
35.5
-3
-9
6,833
-26.8
-26.6
-2,032
-136.1
-173.0
13.5
-151.4
-94.9
36
7
21,478
42.3
4.3
15,078
42.7
10.6
11.7
-27.1
-18.8
19
3
8,317
-887.2
16.5
1,024
-25.3
165.7
7.1
110.0
-
17
5
6,464
14.1
11.5
5,504
25.3
13.9
3.8
10.0
5.0
8
-1
2,384
-41.8
-36.1
623
-81.2
232.8
8.0
-280.7
-129.2
7
-4
1,308
1.6
-9.4
1,149
6.4
7.9
5.2
10.0
-30.0
9
-0
43,353
11.0
6.1
21,394
9.9
2.8
8.6
-66.8
-38.7
-1
2
6,340
-7.1
1.8
472
-88.1
-147.4
12.7
-40.0
20.0
-25
20
901
-69.0
39.1
-1,646
-224.0
-77.1
8.6
-299.0
-30.0
-47
-25
251
-90.5
-68.0
-4,343
-437.6
-1.3
12.3
-278.8
-76.0
39
26
65,460
39.8
27.0
51,090
23.5
23.0
4.6
90.4
84.5
37
20
61,646
39.0
22.8
42,362
5.5
5.1
4.3
80.4
67.0
17
7
3,96,784
19.1
8.5
2,31,774
4.4
9.5
Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. Indostar
June 2025
46
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 87: Advances/AUM growth
INR b
AAVAS
ABCAP (NBFC)
ABCAP (HFC)
BAF
CANF
CIFC
Fivestar
HomeFirst
IIFL Finance
LTHF
LICHF
MMFSL
MASFIN
MGFL
Muthoot
PIEL
PNBHF
PFL
REPCO
SHFL
CREDAG
FUSION
SPANDANA
PFC
REC
Total
4QFY25
204
1,264
311
4,168
382
1,847
119
127
783
978
3,077
1,197
121
430
1,086
807
804
356
145
2,632
259
90
68
5,431
5,669
32,356
Advances/AUM
YoY (%)
17.9
19.6
68.6
26.1
9.2
26.9
23.2
31.1
-0.8
14.3
7.3
16.6
19.5
2.3
43.3
17.2
12.8
42.5
7.2
17.0
-2.9
-21.8
-43.0
12.8
11.3
15.6
QoQ (%)
6.1
5.8
16.2
4.7
2.9
5.8
6.3
6.4
9.7
2.8
2.9
3.9
3.6
-2.7
11.4
3.0
4.6
15.0
2.4
3.4
4.6
-15.3
-23.7
7.8
0.2
4.3
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 88: Asset quality snapshot
Asset quality
(%)
AAVAS
ABCAP (NBFC)
ABCAP (HFC)
BAF
CANF
CIFC
HomeFirst
IIFL Finance
LTFH
LICHF
MMFSL
MASFIN
MGFL
Muthoot
PIEL
PNBHF
PFL
REPCO
SFL
CREDAG
FUSION
SPANDANA
PFC
REC
As on 3QFY25 (%)
GNPA
NNPA
1.1
0.8
2.3
1.2
1.0
NA
1.12
0.5
0.9
0.5
2.9
1.7
1.7
1.3
2.4
1.0
3.2
1.0
2.8
1.5
3.9
2.0
2.4
1.6
2.5
2.3
4.2
NA
2.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.9
0.8
3.9
1.5
5.4
2.7
4.0
1.3
12.6
1.8
4.8
1.1
2.7
0.7
2.0
0.7
PCR
29.8
45.6
NA
57.2
45.2
44.1
25.5
58.8
70.6
47.5
50.1
37.9
NA
NA
49.3
33.3
56.8
61.8
51.6
68.7
87.8
79.8
73.4
61.9
As on 4QFY25 (%)
GNPA
NNPA
1.1
0.7
2.3
1.2
0.7
NA
0.96
0.4
0.9
0.5
2.8
1.6
1.7
1.3
2.2
1.0
3.3
1.0
2.5
1.2
3.7
1.8
2.4
1.6
2.8
2.5
3.4
NA
2.7
1.8
1.1
0.7
1.8
0.9
3.3
1.4
4.6
2.6
4.8
1.8
7.9
0.3
5.6
1.3
1.9
0.4
1.4
0.4
PCR
32.4
46.5
NA
53.7
47.7
45.3
25.2
53.6
71.1
51.2
51.2
40.2
NA
NA
35.7
36.0
54.5
59.6
43.3
64.8
96.4
78.8
80.1
71.7
QoQ change (bp)
GNPA
NNPA
PCR
-6
-7
262
3
0
90
-33
-17
-4
-348
-5
-4
259
-10
-9
117
-6
-4
-29
-19
4
-520
6
0
56
-28
-24
376
-21
-16
110
3
0
231
30
20
-82
3
37
-1357
-11
-11
277
-1
4
-232
-59
-17
-219
-83
-4
-836
77
45
-390
-466
-151
860
78
25
-94
-74
-32
671
-60
-36
985
Source: MOFSL, Company
June 2025
47
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
FINANCIALS – CAPITAL MARKETS AND INSURANCE: Capital market players recovering from regulatory
impact; regulations impact performance of general insurers; VNB margin expands for life insurers
Capital market activity witnessed revival in Mar’25:
Volumes continued to decline in Jan’25/ Feb’25 but
witnessed a 22% MoM growth in Mar’25, signaling a revival in volumes. ANGELONE reported an 8% MoM
growth in order run rate for Mar’25, after witnessing a decline since the implementation of F&O regulations in
Oct’24. The company expects the impact of these regulations to gradually normalize, supported by early signs of
a pickup in the revenue trend.
Premium-to-notional turnover ratio improves for exchanges:
Strong growth in the premium turnover market
share—driven by an improving premium-to-notional turnover ratio and increased non-expiry day trading
activity—significantly boosted BSE’s top line and profitability. Star MF continued to report healthy performance,
marking a 44% YoY growth in revenue. Meanwhile, heightened volatility in crude oil prices and strong demand
for gold led to a surge in options volumes (101% YoY growth in total volumes), resulting in strong revenue
growth for MCX. Options ADT surged 96% YoY to INR2.3t, largely supported by a 339% YoY growth in bullion
contracts and 64% YoY growth in energy contracts. Futures ADT rose 56% YoY to INR283b, fueled by
45%/74%/66% YoY growth in bullion/energy contracts/base metals.
AMCs witnessed the impact of weak markets; flows remained stable:
The MF industry’s QAAUM declined
sequentially to INR67.3t at the end of Mar’25, with the share of equity QAAUM growing to 63.8% from 63% as of
Mar’24. Industry SIP flows continued to gain traction, with INR783b flows in 4QFY25 vs. INR771b in 3QFY25. All
AMCs maintained a positive outlook for SIP flows amid early signs of market recovery. While yields witnessed a
slight decline due to fewer trading days, other income for all players was impacted by adverse equity market
movements—which was offset by a favorable environment for debt investments. A weak market environment in
the MF business led to a slowdown in growth for CAMS, which reported a 10% YoY increase in PAT. Wealth
managers like 360ONE and Nuvama continue to witness steady ARR inflows, with yields showing strong
improvement across products during 4QFY25.
Decline in ULIP momentum impacted growth; VNB margin expands due to higher non-par contribution:
During
4QFY25, the life insurance industry witnessed APE growth of ~1% YoY, driven by ~12% YoY growth reported by
private life insurers, while LIC witnessed a decline of ~16% YoY. VNB margin witnessed an expansion across the
industry, due to: 1) increased sales of ULIP products featuring higher sum assured and rider attachments and 2)
growth recovery of non-linked products. Absolute VNB for private listed players grew in the range of 3-12% YoY.
The players reported a sequential VNB margin expansion of 50-500bp.
Growth slowdown largely in the motor and health segment:
The general insurance industry continues to
experience a low growth trajectory, due to: 1) weak infrastructure investments, 2) slow credit growth, 3) weak
trends in motor sales growth, and 4) 1/n regulation. ICICIGI has successfully gained market share by focusing on
profitable businesses and easing competitive intensity. Profitability has remained strong due to conservative
reserving in the past. STARHEAL’s recent pricing actions may provide some relief from rising medical inflation
and hospitalization trends, potentially bringing the claims ratio down gradually over the next few quarters. Niva
reported strong underwriting performance during the quarter, but the combined ratio was largely impacted by
1/n regulation. ICICIGI/STARHEAL/NIVABUPA registered a YoY NEP growth of 20%/12%/19%, while their PAT
dipped 2%/100%/grew 31% YoY.
Valuation and view:
The capital market ecosystem witnessed a mixed performance in FY25, marked by strong
growth in 1HFY25 but a slowdown in 2HFY25 due to regulatory impact, weak market sentiments, and uncertain
macroeconomic conditions. We expect the volume revival seen in Mar’25 to sustain, supporting a stable growth
trajectory for brokers and exchanges as participation gradually rises. Mutual fund activity is anticipated to remain
stable, backed by industry efforts to spread awareness, enhance financial literacy, and promote a long-term
investment perspective—factors that are likely to maintain stable performance for AMCs and intermediaries like
CAMS.
Wealth managers are expected to witness strong inflows and positive MTM impact going forward. Life insurance
companies should see an improvement in VNB margins as the product mix shifts toward retail protection and
annuities. Recovery in auto sales and capex are key monitorables for growth prospects among general insurance
players.
June 2025
48
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Top Picks:
ANGELONE, NUVAMA, NIVABUPA
Surprises:
360 ONE WAM, NUVAMA, SBILIFE, BSE, NIVABUPA, MAXF, CAMS, ABSLAMC
Misses:
STARHEAL, LIC, MCX, UTIAMC
Guidance highlights:
360ONE:
The strategic collaboration with UBS will support 360ONE’s global business, enhance its domestic
wealth proposition, and provide global distribution opportunities for its AMC products. Management aims to
achieve an ARR flow growth of 12-15% and an MTM growth of 8-10%, targeting an overall AUM growth of 20-
25%. This is expected to translate into revenue growth of 15-20% and PAT growth of 20-25%.
ANGELONE:
The revenue curve picked up in Mar’25, with a similar trajectory observed in Apr’25. Management
expects the impact of F&O regulations to gradually normalize, which will lead to an operating margin of 40-45%
in 4QFY26. The company’s variable employee expenses serve as a lever for cost efficiency. It has been gaining
market share through client additions and aims to remain aggressive while the industry adopts a wait-and-watch
approach. Management expects the distribution segment to play a key role in revenue diversification, driven by
a calibrated approach to launching new products, especially for credit and insurance.
CAMS:
For FY26, management expects EBITDA margins to contract to ~44%, driven by a muted AUM growth
outlook of ~11-12%, translating into ~8-9% revenue growth. The non-MF business recorded a revenue run rate
of ~INR2b in FY25, with management projecting a 25% increase in FY26, driven mainly by CAMSPay, AIF, and
KRA, which will add around INR500m. EBITDA margins for this segment, which were in the 10-15% range, are
expected to rise to ~20% in FY26. Management has guided for yields to dip to 2.14bp by 4QFY26.
BSE:
BSE is focused on leveraging the Sensex brand, enhancing reach, and widening its product basket. BSE aims
to add 200 colocation racks before the end of FY26, bringing the total count to 500 racks. It has introduced a
per-order rate on a pilot basis for colocation and will fine-tune it in the near future based on feedback. It aims to
soon introduce a model with differentiated pricing for various customer segments.
HDFC AMC:
Management remains optimistic about a pickup in flow trends, noting that the company’s decline in
SIP flows was lower than the industry average.
NIPPON AMC:
Equity yield stood at 57bp, and management continues to expect a 2-3bp dip YoY going forward.
In FY26, the company expects a cost increase of 15% ex-ESOP, with employee costs growing at 14-15% as well.
The industry’s SIP book has started to moderate amid ongoing market volatility. NAM is focused on diversifying
products to attract investors toward SIPs and maintain momentum. A newly launched scheme in Japan—providing
Japanese investors access to Indian markets, is expected to significantly benefit NAM.
ICICIGI:
While growth in the commercial and auto segments remained weak due to a weak economic backdrop,
ICICIGI’s health segment continued to perform well. The company will continue to evaluate a price hike in the
health segment but is comfortable with the retail indemnity loss ratio of 65-70%. It expects the pricing to
improve in the fire segment as companies adjust to a new reality of higher catastrophic events. Competitive
pressures in the motor segment have been easing, as reflected in slower growth for some players.
NIVABUPA:
Niva’s EOM has improved on a gross basis by 190-200bp each in FY24 and FY25. With strong premium
growth, the company is well-positioned to achieve a similar improvement going forward, helping it comply with EOM
regulations. In 4QFY25, Niva launched a new product targeting the middle-class and lower middle-class
segments, addressing one of the largest unserved populations.
HDFCLIFE:
APE growth is expected to moderate to the mid-teens in FY26. VNB margins are likely to remain
range-bound as the company continues to invest its surplus in enhancing agent productivity and driving
technology transformation. Management expects traditional products to perform well, aided by lower interest
rates and equity market uncertainty in FY26.
SBILIFE
Management expects individual APE growth of 13-14% in FY26, slightly above the industry growth of
12%, driven by continued expansion and productivity gains in the agency channel (expecting 25% growth in
FY26) and stable momentum in the bancassurance channel (expecting 8-10% growth in FY26). VNB margin is
expected to remain in the 27-28% range in FY26. Additionally, the company expects to achieve a 5% shift toward
traditional products in FY26, bringing the contribution to 35% in the product mix, with ULIPs comprising the
remaining 65%.
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LIC:
Management expects premium growth to recover soon, although the reduction in the number of policies
issued may take longer to stabilize. LIC remains focused on expanding its non-par business to enhance
profitability and offer better policyholder benefits, particularly in a declining interest rate environment.
4QFY25
9,014
5,665
4,288
3,602
7,439
8,467
2,913
6,518
7,712
2,220
2,829
3,562
2,827
2,244
Revenue
YoY (%)
30
21
17
13
-15
75
61
14
29
20
18
QoQ (%)
-4
-4
-4
-4
-16
10
-3
8
7
-6
-1
4QFY25
7,302
3,652
2,439
1,534
2,357
4,843
1,602
3,177
3,363
908
686
EBITDA
YoY (%)
35
26
19
18
-49
405
NA
16
41
24
13
QoQ (%)
-4
-5
-11
-20
-39
11
-17
11
1
-15
4
4QFY25
6,385
2,983
2,281
1,020
1,745
4,931
1,355
2,498
2,553
737
516
1,128
851
1,004
4QFY25
5,096
5
4QFY25
4,765
3,853
8,135
380
1,90,128
PAT
YoY (%)
18
-13
9
-44
-49
371
54
4
41
30
16
10
14
-22
PAT
YoY (%)
-2
-100
PAT
YoY (%)
16
122
0
-175
38
QoQ (%)
-0
1
2
-41
-38
127
-15
-9
1
-5
7
-9
-6
-23
QoQ (%)
-30
-100
QoQ (%)
15
19
48
-46
72
INR m
AMCs
HDFC
NAM
ABSL
UTI
Broking/Exchanges
ANGELONE
BSE
MCX
Wealth Management
360 ONE WAM
Nuvama
Anand Rathi
Prudent Corporate
RTA
CAMS
KFIN Technologies
CDSL
General Insurance
ICICIGI
STARHEAL
Life Insurance
HDFCLIFE
IPRU
SBILIFE
MAXFIN
LIC
15
-4
24
-3
-7
-19
Gross Premium
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
69,039
10
7
51,380
3
35
APE
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
51,860
10
45
35,020
-3
44
54,500
2
-21
30,390
6
44
1,88,530
-11
89
1,594
11
-8
1,223
17
-6
1,094
-26
-32
Underwriting Profit/(Loss)
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
-1,523
NA
NA
-2,752
NA
NA
VNB
4QFY25
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
13,760
12
48
7,950
2
54
16,600
10
-11
8,520
4
74
35,340
-3
83
HEALTHCARE: In-line show; ends FY25 on a robust note despite currency/acute therapy challenges
Pharma coverage companies delivered largely in-line revenue/EBITDA/PAT for 4QFY25, sustaining growth
momentum with YoY increases of 12%/19%/18% in sales/EBITDA/PAT, respectively. Interestingly, US sales showed
a moderation on an aggregate basis in CC terms, while acute therapies in the Domestic Formulation (DF) segment
were adversely impacted by unfavorable seasonality. Despite these factors, the overall performance was decent,
supported by increased growth momentum in chronic therapies within the DF segment and favorable currency
movements in regulated markets, resulting in high-teen YoY growth in EBITDA and PAT.
The reduction in API prices continued to improve overall profitability for formulation companies during the
quarter.
In the overall listed hospital space, Revenue/EBITDA grew strongly by 18%/20% YoY, respectively, for the quarter,
driven by broad-based growth in operational parameters (volume growth up 9% YoY and patient realization up 9%
YoY) for the quarter. Hospital companies added the lowest number of operating beds on a quarterly basis (82) in
4QFY25 for FY25.
Out of 25 companies, 10 reported in-line performance, eight delivered better-than-expected performance, and
seven delivered lower-than-expected performance. BIOS, GLXO, DIVI, and LAURUS delivered strong positive
surprises for the quarter, while ALKEM/MANKIND delivered a considerable miss on operational performance.
US sales
witnessed revenue expansion of 3.4% YoY (in cc terms) to USD2.4b, on an aggregate basis, for
companies under our coverage. The moderate performance from top drugs, in-line approvals, increased USFDA
observations, and rising competition contributed to growth in US generics for the quarter.
Among our coverage companies, ZYDUSLIF delivered the highest YoY growth of 17.4% in US sales, led by
products like g-Myrbetriq and improved traction in the base portfolio. LUPIN’s US segment delivered 17.2% YoY
growth, backed by limited competition and new product launches like G-Spiriva/Pred Forte. Alembic delivered
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17.3% YoY growth in US sales, driven by 16 product launches in FY25 and higher off-take of products
commercialized in earlier years. Overall, 163 products are now commercialized in the US. In contrast, SUNP saw
a 14% YoY decline in US sales, as continued strength in its specialty portfolio was offset by weakness in the
generics business, leading to a slight decline in cc terms.
On an overall basis, our coverage companies received approvals for 80 ANDAs (54 final approvals and 26
tentative approvals) in 4QFY25.
On an aggregate basis,
Domestic Formulation (DF)
reported YoY growth of 11% in 4QFY25, led by strong growth
in chronic therapies, which was offset by a lower off-take in acute therapies. Among therapies, Urology, Cardiac,
Derma, Antineoplast, and Gastro delivered 13.6%/11.7%/9.5%/13.1%/9.7% YoY growth, outperforming IPM (8%
YoY growth). However, Anti-infectives, Respiratory, Gynae, and Ophthal underperformed IPM by
290bp/460bp/400bp/340bp. Among our coverage companies, Sun/Mankind/DRRL delivered 13.6%/17%/15.8%
YoY for 4QFY25. ERIS delivered 28% YoY growth, partly driven by acquisitions made in FY25.
For FY25, DF sales grew 12.8% YoY to INR923b. Among our coverage companies, GNP/ERIS delivered YoY growth
of 35.7%/44%, respectively. GNP’s growth was supported by a low base effect, while ERIS’s strong performance
was driven by acquisitions.
Among our coverage companies that have reported earnings so far, four have seen earnings upgrades, while six
have seen earnings downgrades. Upgrades in FY26/FY27 earnings were observed in GLXO (5% each), LAURUS
(3%/1%), DIVI (5%/6%), and LPC (8%/7%). PIRPHARM (down 47%/33%), BIOS (13%/3%), GRAN (8%/6%), and
MANKIND (12%/9%) witnessed maximum downgrades in earnings estimates.
Top picks:
SUNP, MAXH, IPCA
Surprises:
BIOS, GLXO, DIVI, and LAURUS
Misses:
CIPLA, SUNP, ALKEM, MANKIND
Guidance highlights
Sun Pharma (SUNP)
expects mid-to-high single-digit YoY revenue growth in FY26, with a USD100m investment in
specialty launches and field force. Illumya sales rose 17% YoY to USD680m. The ETR is expected to rise, while
R&D spending will remain at 6-8% of sales. Post Phase II trials, partnering for MM-II is under evaluation.
Dr. Reddy’s
expects double-digit revenue growth in FY26 with stable EBITDA margins. Key developments include
biosimilar partnerships (HLX15, AVT03), seven product launches in North America, and the sale of its Shreveport
facility. A one-time cost impacted gross margins by 80bp. SGA/R&D expenses will remain flat YoY, while ETR is
guided to remain at FY25 levels.
Divi’s
targets sustained double-digit revenue growth, with Unit III now operational and INR11b capitalized in
FY25. A recent contract win will yield benefits by end-CY26. FY26 capex is set at INR14b. Raw material sourcing
and freight conditions are stabilizing, and cash reserves stood at INR37b as of FY25-end.
Cipla
guided for 23.5-24.5% EBITDA margin in FY26, with a USD220m US sales run rate. Key launches include g-
Abraxane, g-Nilotinib, and three peptides. The company plans major filings in respiratory, peptide, and
oligonucleotide segments. Domestic sales are expected to grow 8-10% YoY, supported by a strong chronic
portfolio and brand performance.
BIOS
has imminent TADs for g-Copaxone and Insulin Aspart, with Liraglutide set for late 2025. It is scaling up the
production of Bevacizumab and expects b-denosumab approval by FY26-end. Four biosimilars have each
achieved USD200m in sales, with strong US market shares for b-Trastuzumab (26%) and b-Pegfilgrastim (30%).
LPC
expects a 23-23.5% EBITDA margin for FY25, with 9MFY25 already at 24%. The US business is now projected
for double-digit YoY growth, targeting USD1b in US sales for FY26 despite competition. Key filings include
Ranibizumab for the EU, with R&D spend at INR18b and five complex nasal sprays planned.
ZYDUSLIF
targets double-digit YoY growth and a 26% EBITDA margin in FY26, with high single-digit growth
expected in its US business. The Mirabegron litigation trial is scheduled for Feb’26, while vaccine interest from
UNICEF/PAHO is increasing. An impairment has been recorded related to the g-rotigotine patch.
APHS
is on track to achieve cash EBITDA breakeven (excluding ESOP cost) in Healthco by 2QFY26/3QFY26. The
company anticipates GMV growth of 25-30% YoY in FY26, with sales:GMV ratio expected at 40-45% vs the
current ratio of 37%. It expects to maintain the profitability of its healthcare services segment for FY26.
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LAURUS
expects stable ARV revenue of INR25-26b in FY26, with limited current payload and linker
manufacturing. FY26’s capex of INR10b will be funded internally, keeping net debt steady. Significant growth in
animal health and crop protection businesses is anticipated from end-FY26 onwards.
GLAND
ended FY25 with flat revenue but targets mid-teens YoY growth in FY26, driven by biologics, dry powder
contracts, GLP business, and new US/ROW launches. Cenexi is expected to break even by 3QFY26, aiming for a
double-digit EBITDA margin by FY27.
TRP
is preparing to launch Semaglutide in India, with its Curatio portfolio growing 18-19% YoY in FY25. Its
chronic portfolio outperformed industry growth at 14%. The company posted 4% volume and 7% price growth. It
has added 200 MRs and aims for 6,800-6,900 by FY26-end. It expects high-single-digit revenue growth in
Germany.
IPCA
has guided for 8-10% YoY growth in revenue and a 100bp margin expansion for FY26. Additionally,
management indicated 6-7 product filings for the US market in FY26. IPCA outperformed the DF market in acute
and chronic categories in FY25.
MAXHEALTH
aims to add 1,500 beds in FY26, following the addition of 856 beds in FY25. Strong 4QFY25 revenue
growth was driven by Oncology, Orthopedics, and Obstetrics/Gynecology, with international patient revenue
increasing 28%. Cash flow supported expansion, facility upgrades, and the JP Healthcare acquisition; the Vaishali
facility added 140 beds, operating at 83% occupancy.
MEDANTA
plans a new 400-bed hospital in Guwahati with an INR5b investment; construction at Noida and
Ranchi hospitals is on track for 2QFY26 operations. Over 119 doctors have joined in FY25. The Lucknow hospital
has achieved 250+ kidney transplants, while international patient revenue grew 17% YoY.
Exhibit 90: DF sales grew 10.7% YoY in 4QFY25
DF sales growth YoY (%)
14.0
12.3
5.1
0.6 (0.2)
10.5
13.4
10.3
13.7
10.3 10.1
2.4
3.4
-2.7
6.8 6.7
9.7
8.1 9.5 6.6 8.1
16.2
13.1
11.3
10.7
Exhibit 89: US sales declined 3.4% YoY in 4QFY25 (CC terms)
YoY growth (%)
27.2
Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA
Source: MOFSL, Company
Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 91: 54 Final ANDAs approved on an aggregate basis for our coverage universe in
4QFY25
Approval
Tentative Approval
12
5
3
1
0
3 3
6
4 4
0 0 0
3
2
7
5
2 2
0
3
1
0
2
3
1
4
0
1
2
1
0 0 0
Source: MOFSL, Company
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Exhibit 92: Aggregate EBITDA up 18.8% YoY to INR186b in 4QFY25 for pharma universe
Aggregate EBITDA (INRb)
200
Aggregate EBITDA Growth (%)
37.6
21.7
5.2
116
4QFY22
113
3.2
(12.9)
1QFY23
135
2QFY23
6.7
10.9
21.6
22.2
9.4
22.9
18.8
45.0
180
35.0
160
140
25.0
120
100
9.6
15.0
80
5.0
60
40
20
136
3QFY23
129
4QFY23
156
1QFY24
164
2QFY24
149
3QFY24
157
4QFY24
190
1QFY25
179
2QFY25
184
3QFY25
186
4QFY25
(5 .0)
0
(1 5.0)
Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA/SOLARA
Source: MOFSL, Company
Infrastructure: Sluggish awarding activity in FY25; delays in appointed dates hurt execution
Execution declines on a YoY basis in 4Q amid sluggish awarding activity:
Infrastructure companies within our
coverage universe (excluding IRB) reported a 16% YoY revenue decline in 4QFY25, primarily due to sluggish project
awarding by NHAI and delays in land acquisition. KNR/GRIL revenue declined 28%/10% YoY, respectively, in
4QFY25. GRINFRA faced a slowdown in execution, primarily due to fewer projects under execution. NHAI’s
awarding was sluggish in FY25 and both the companies, KNR and GRIL, are exploring non-road infrastructure
opportunities like power transmission projects, water projects, and solar EPC projects to diversify their order
books. The managements of KNR and GRIL have guided for flattish growth in FY26 as well. Execution is likely to
improve in FY27 across our coverage companies.
Awarding activity remains subdued in FY25; pipeline robust:
Awarding activity by NHAI has remained subdued,
with ~4,000km of projects awarded in FY25. While there is a huge tender pipeline, order inflows could kick in
materially only in FY26. Management of GRIL has guided for order inflows of INR200b in FY26, while
management of KNR has guided for order inflows of INR80b. Given the sluggish awarding activity by NHAI, both
companies are expected to focus on diversifying their order books toward non-road segments.
Elevated input costs keep margins under check:
Companies within our coverage reported flattish EBITDA margin
on a YoY basis. Though steel and aluminum prices have corrected ~30% from their highs in Apr’22, the prices
continue to remain at elevated levels. Cement prices have increased ~8% from their lows in Oct’23.
Focus on asset monetization:
NHAI had set a monetization target of ~INR300b at the beginning of FY26 (INR287b
in FY25) and has prepared a tentative list of 24 road assets earmarked for monetization. In line with the National
Monetization Plan (NMP), NHAI’s total asset monetization program has surpassed INR1t.
Exhibit 93: Revenue declined ~16% YoY for our coverage
universe
Infra aggregate sales (INR b)
Exhibit 94: Gross margin expanded on a YoY basis
Infra aggregate gross margin (%)
31.2
26.5
27.6
31.7
33.3
25.2
27.1
33.3
27.2
19.8
22.1
27.9
26.3
25.9
26.2
28.0
26.5
26.6
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Exhibit 95: EBITDA remains flattish YoY
Infra aggregate EBITDA margin (%)
15.8
15.8
14.3
13.8
Exhibit 96: APAT margins expand on a YoY basis
Infra aggregate APAT margin (%)
13.3
15.0
11.7
10.1
10.1
8.9
8.7
10.7 10.4
12.9
15.1
14.1
12.9
14.0
Note: Data in the above charts is for our coverage universe, excluding IRB
Logistics: Volumes remain muted amid slowdown in consumption; private port operators gain
market share
Logistics activity remains muted; cargo volumes at ports remain subdued due to geopolitical issues:
Logistics
activity remained muted due to challenges like weak volume growth—especially in road transportation and e-
commerce, market fluctuations, and rising labor costs. Express logistics saw a volume decline due to muted
demand and competitive pressure. Logistics companies (excluding APSEZ and JSWINFRA) reported YoY revenue
growth of ~5% in 4QFY25 and 2% in FY25. APSEZ and JSWINFRA reported an 8% and 5% YoY growth in cargo
volumes, respectively. In FY25, APSEZ managed ~27% of the country’s total cargo and ~45% of container cargo.
With volume ramp-up at recently acquired ports/terminals, APSEZ and JSWINFRA are expected to witness strong
volume growth going forward.
Margins remain largely flattish on a YoY basis due to muted volume growth and high operating expenses:
Gross margin for our coverage universe, barring APSEZ and JSWINFRA, stood at 29.9% in 4QFY25 (up 40bp YoY
and 50bp QoQ). Muted volumes during the quarter, coupled with elevated operating expenses—such as high
fuel prices and toll charges—kept margins subdued. EBITDA margin for our coverage universe, excluding APSEZ
and JSWINFRA, decreased 10bp YoY and 30bp QoQ to 12.9%. APSEZ’s margins stood at 59% (up 40bp YoY and
down 130bp QoQ), while JSWINFRA’s margins stood at ~50% (down 300bp YoY and up 30bp QoQ).
Organized players with a Pan-India network and technological advantage to gain higher market share:
The
implementation of GST, e-way bills, and reduced e-invoicing turnover limits has prompted businesses to partner
with organized logistics providers. Express companies are expanding their infrastructure and digitalizing
operations, positioning themselves to capture higher volumes. Meanwhile, the government's port privatization
efforts present growth opportunities, with APSEZ and JSWINFRA well-placed to benefit, given their strong
balance sheets.
Top picks:
JSWINFRA is our preferred choice in this space.
Guidance
APSEZ:
In FY26, APSEZ expects cargo volumes of 505-515mmt, revenue of INR360-380b, EBITDA of INR210-220b,
and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0-2.5x. It has planned a capex of INR120b, primarily for ports (INR60b),
logistics, and renewables.
JSWINFRA:
Port capacity is set to reach 400mtpa by FY30, with the current capacity rising to 177mtpa.
Management targets INR80b in revenue, INR20b in EBITDA, and INR90b in capex for JSW Ports Logistics Ltd.
JSWINFRA plans to invest INR55b in capex (vs. INR 24.4b in FY25), including INR40b earmarked for ports and
INR15b for logistics.
VRLL:
In FY26, VRL expects 2-3% volume growth, with a weak 1H due to the exit from low-margin businesses and
recovery from 3Q. Revenue will be supported by 6-7% realization growth and stable pricing, while EBITDA
margins are expected to remain at 19-20% with continued cost control.
TRPC:
The company expects freight margins and RoCE to bottom out, with some volume recovery from SME
customers. Strong momentum continues in warehousing, quick commerce, and multimodal services. For FY26, it
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targets 10-12% revenue and profit growth, aided by the China+1 strategy, PLI scheme, and infrastructure push. A
capex of INR4.5b is planned for FY26.
BDE:
BDE anticipates high single- to low-double-digit YoY growth in FY26-27, aims to improve margins without
providing specific guidance, and expects B2C ground express growth to vary with economic conditions while
leveraging better infrastructure to support stronger pricing.
CCRI:
For FY26, CCRI targets 13% overall volume growth, driven by 10% growth in EXIM and 20% in domestic
volumes. The commissioning of the Western DFC to JNPT by Dec’25 is expected to boost rail volumes by shifting
light cargo from the roads. Additionally, four new terminals—Talabad, Patri, Mandalgarh, and Chunar—are set
to open in FY26, creating new regional freight corridors.
MLL:
MLL aims to build integrated logistics capabilities, leveraging enhanced tech and automation as
differentiators. It targets mid-to-high teen revenue growth and an 18% RoE by FY26, with a long-term goal of
becoming an INR100b logistics provider, while remaining optimistic about narrowing losses as express volumes
recover.
TCIE:
The company expects 7-8% tonnage and 10-12% revenue growth in FY26, driven by better yields and
network expansion. Margin expansion of 150-200bp is anticipated from price hikes, cost control measures, and a
higher share of rail/air express. The company has earmarked INR3b capex for FY26-27.
Exhibit 98: Margins remained largely flattish on a YoY basis
MOSL universe Logistics Gross margin (%)
33.2
30.1
10.0 8.4
9.6 9.2 9.0
8.3 4.6
6.0 6.7
31.2
29.5
30.9
30.5
29.3
28.9
30.5
29.5
30.2
29.4
Exhibit 97: Sales improved ~5% YoY for our coverage
universe
Logistics aggregate YoY sales growth (%)
30.8
14.4
8.8
29.9
-0.3
Exhibit 99: EBITDA margin remained flattish on a YoY basis, primarily due to muted volume growth
MOSL universe Logistics EBITDA margin (%)
15.9
15.6
14.9
13.9
13.6
12.7
13.9
14.1
13.3
13.0
12.0
13.2
12.9
Note: Data in the above charts is for our coverage universe, excluding APSEZ & JSWINFRA
Source: Company, MOFSL
METALS: Low costs drive operating performance; ferrous sees better volume, ASP remains muted
Strong volume growth for ferrous as imports soften
Ferrous:
Companies within our coverage universe reported sales volume growth of 9% YoY and 12% QoQ in 4QFY25,
as construction activity resumed and imports softened, in addition to a low base effect. SAIL reported strong volume
growth of 20% QoQ (+17% YoY), driven by incremental volume from NMDC steel (NSL). JSPL/JSTL reported 12% QoQ
volume growth, while TATA saw 8% QoQ volume growth.
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Non-Ferrous:
HNDL domestic aluminum volume growth remained muted at 2% both QoQ and YoY, while copper
volume grew 13% QoQ (flat YoY). Novelis (HNDL overseas aluminum business) saw modest volume growth of 6%
QoQ, but remained flat YoY due to subdued global demand and trade tensions. Vedanta posted 2% QoQ (flat YoY)
volume decline in aluminum business, while the domestic zinc business (HZ) saw volumes growth of 7% QoQ (flat
YoY). NACL reported aluminum sales growth of 19% QoQ (+17% YoY), while alumina sales fell by 8% QoQ and 10%
YoY, owing to a production shift toward aluminum.
Mining:
COAL’s sales (dispatches) were up 3% QoQ and flat YoY at 201mt, while NMDC sales volume rose 6% QoQ
and 1% YoY to 12.7mt.
Ferrous ASP remained muted QoQ; non-ferrous benefitted from favorable pricing:
Aggregate revenue for the
ferrous companies under coverage grew by 9% QoQ (flat YoY) as healthy volume offset muted NSR. Despite an
increase in ferrous prices by INR2,500-3,000/t during Mar’25, the average flats price in 4QFY25 was marginally
up by INR500/t, and management expects to see INR2,500-3,000/t NSR improvement in 1QFY26. Average
realization moderated by 2% QoQ in 4Q. Aggregate revenue for non-ferrous companies increase by 8% QoQ and
17% YoY, led by favorable pricing during the quarter. HNDL reported revenue growth of 11% QoQ and 16% YoY,
whereas the HZ/VEDL revenue grew by +6/3% QoQ and +20/13% YoY in 4QFY25.
Ferrous EBITDA/t improved QoQ amid muted cost; non-ferrous delivers strong growth:
a) Ferrous:
Aggregate
EBITDA for our coverage companies increased by 12% both QoQ/YoY, driven by strong volumes and muted cost.
EBITDA/t for JSPL/JSTL improved marginally by 2% QoQ (down 4/6% YoY) to INR11,650/INR8,500 per ton. SAIL
reported strong EBITDA/t of INR6,536/t (+43% QoQ and +69% YoY), while TATA EBITDA/t stood at INR7,874/t
(-15% QoQ and -5% YoY). EU operating losses remained flat QoQ and YoY both at USD38/t.
b) Non-ferrous:
EBITDA for non-ferrous companies increased significantly by ~38% YoY and 9% QoQ on account of strong pricing
and muted costs during the quarter. The biggest improvement was visible in NACL, which benefited from higher
alumina sales and favorable pricing.
Ferrous - Decent operating profit drives PAT growth:
Aggregate APAT for ferrous companies increased by 117%
QoQ and 55% YoY in 4QFY25, led by strong operating profit on account of better volume and muted costs. Non-
ferrous companies’ aggregate APAT increased by 20% QoQ and 79% YoY, driven by strong operating profitability
on account of strong pricing and muted costs during 4Q.
Top picks:
JSTL and JSP
Surprises:
SAIL and NACL
Capacity enhancement:
a) Ferrous:
TATA is doubling its domestic crude steel capacity to 40mt from 21mt; recently
Kalinganagar 5mtpa was commissioned and other associate facilities will be commissioned in the coming years.
Similarly, JSP is doubling its finished steel capacity to 13.75mt by FY26 from 7.25mt. JSTL 5mtpa Vijayanagar
integrated facility (Sinter and BF) was commissioned. JSTL’s other expansion such as Dolvi phase-III and
debottlenecking should take the capacity to 42mtpa by Sep’27. SAIL plans to increase its capacity from 20mtpa of
crude steel to 35mtpa by the end of FY31 in a phased manner.
b) Non-ferrous:
Novelis’ (HNDL) Bay Minette facility is expected to be completed in 2HCY26 and would take 18-24
months to fully ramp up. VEDL’s Lanjigarh Train-1 is ramping up steadily, and the ongoing Train-2 expansion of
1.5mtpa is expected to be completed in 1HFY26. At Zinc International, the Phase 2 expansion project is expected to
be commissioned by 2HFY26. In BALCO, the company plans to add 30ktpa of aluminum silicon products and 50ktpa
of slabs. HZ’s debottlenecking at Dariba Smelting Complex is expected to be completed by 2QFY26 and the
debottlenecking at Chanderiya lead-zinc smelter in 3QFY26. NACL is expanding its alumina refinery (5th Stream) by
1mtpa with a completion target of Jan-Feb’26 (delayed from Sep’25 due to local issues).
Guidance highlights:
TATA:
In 1QFY26, India prices are expected to rise by INR3,000/t and Europe prices by EUR20-30/t. Deliveries for
FY26 are expected to increase by 1.5mt, primarily from Kalinganagar’s ramp-up in India. Coking coal costs (on a
consumption basis) for India operations would be USD10/t lower QoQ in 1QFY26, and for the Netherlands,
coking coal prices may fall by USD10/t QoQ and iron ore prices might be higher by USD10/t QoQ. Management
aims for cost savings of INR115b in FY26: a) INR40b from India via contract optimization and technology-driven
procurement; b) UK fixed cost reduction by 29%; and c) EUR500m in the Netherlands via volume maximization.
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JSTL:
Realization/t is expected to go up by INR3,200-3,250/t for 1QFY26. In 1QFY26, management expects coking
coal costs to further decline by USD10-15/t sequentially. Volume guidance for FY26: Indian operations’
production/sales to be 29.5mt/28.2mt. USA-Ohio production/sales to be 1mt/1mt. Capex Guidance: INR200b for
FY26 and INR210b for FY27. Out of this, ~96% of the total capex will be spent on Indian operations, and the
remaining on overseas operations. Captive iron ore sourcing is expected at 40% (~34mt) for FY26.
JSP: The
company expects 9-10mt of crude steel production in FY26 with the incremental steel production of
0.2-0.3mt coming from existing plants and 0.7- 1.6mt from new expansion. JSP expects finished steel sales of
8.5-9mt for FY26; the lag between production and sales will be due to the ongoing ramp-up. Management
expects coking coal to further moderate by USD10-12/t in 1QFY26. Earnings are expected to be better in
1QFY26, driven by healthy volumes, better NSR, and lower costs. In 4QFY25, the company spent ~INR23.1b
primarily on Angul capex. Out of the total ~INR470b capex announced for growth and maintenance, JSPL has
spent ~INR259b so far and the remaining will be spent over FY26-28E.
NMDC:
NMDC targets production of 55mt for FY26, with an incremental loading of ~6-7mt from two new lines
(line-4 in Bacheli and line-13 in Kirandul). Domestic iron ore prices remain stable, supported by safeguard duties
on steel despite range-bound international prices (USD99-102/t). NMDC aims to double its production capacity
from 50mt to 100mt over the next few years. For FY26, NMDC has guided for a capex of INR40-42b, with a
significant ramp-up expected in FY27-28 (potentially exceeding INR100b annually) as projects move into
execution.
HNDL:
Coal mix for FY25: linkage was 50%, e-auction was 47%, and the rest was from own mines. Management
does not foresee any substantial change in FY26 and expects major changes after the commissioning of Chakla
and Bandha mines. HNDL expects alumina prices to remain in the range of USD350-400/t in FY26. Downstream
EBITDA/t is expected to be USD250-300 for FY26. Alumina sales for FY26 are expected to be 700-800kt.
VEDL/HZ:
Currently, 55% of alumina is sourced from captive sources, with the rest being imported. As
production ramps up to 4mt by 4QFY26, captive sourcing is expected to increase to 65%. For the aluminum
business, VEDL expects production volume of 2.5mt and CoP of USD1,700-1,750/t for FY26. For Bauxite, VEDL
expects to source 60% from the domestic market (OMC) and 40% imported in 1HFY26. KCM is ramping up well,
and management targets 150kt in FY26, with potential upside to 170-180kt. The mine is expected to be cash
positive in FY26 with the completion of the KDMP project.
Exhibit 101: Coking coal (USD/t) moderated significantly
from the peak and now range bound near USD200/t
800
600
400
200
0
Exhibit 100: Domestic spot steel spreads (USD/t) recovered
close to LTA
Domestic HRC -RM Spreads
750
500
250
0
10-year Avg Spread
Source: MOFSL, Steelmint
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Exhibit 102: HRC (INR/t) rebound to INR52,000/t amid
safeguard duty
95,000
81,000
67,000
53,000
39,000
25,000
35,000
20,000
65,000
50,000
Exhibit 103: Rebar (INR/t) prices resilient at 56,000/t level
with better demand from construction activities
80,000
Source: MOFSL, Steelmint
Source: MOFSL, Steelmint
Exhibit 104: Aluminum prices corrected to ~USD2,500/t
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Exhibit 105: Zinc prices slipped from USD2,700/t levels
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Exhibit 106: Copper prices steady at USD10,000/t levels
12,500
10,500
8,500
6,500
4,500
Exhibit 107: Lead prices softened below USD2,1000/t
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Exhibit 108: EBITDA/t for steel companies under our coverage (consolidated)
EBITDA/t
JSW Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSPL
1QFY24
12,340
7,186
4,250
14,283
2QFY24
12,438
6,037
4,429
11,372
3QFY24
11,967
8,031
5,638
15,705
4QFY24
9,100
8,271
3,879
12,162
1QFY25
9,003
9,059
5,536
13,585
2QFY25
8,869
7,343
3,111
11,893
3QFY25
4QFY25
8,314
8,515
9,268
7,874
4,582
6,536
11,494
11,651
Source: MOFSL, Company
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OIL & GAS: OMCs – refining steady, marketing remains robust; CGD margins have bottomed out
Overall performance:
Revenue came in 7% above our estimate (flat YoY). Excluding OMCs, revenue was 8%
above our estimate (up 7% YoY). EBITDA was 16% above estimates (flat YoY), with OMCs, GAIL and IGL beating
our estimates. Excluding OMCs, EBITDA was in line with estimates (flat YoY). Adjusted PAT was 27% above est.
(down 5% YoY). Adjusted PAT, excluding OMCs, was in line (down 12% YoY). (AEGISLOG is excluded as it is yet to
report 4QFY25 result)
RIL:
Reliance Industries’ (RIL) 4QFY25 consolidated EBITDA was flat QoQ (+3% YoY) at INR438b (in line), driven by
a stronger recovery in Retail (EBITDA +15% YoY). Consol. O2C EBITDA grew ~5% QoQ, driven by cost optimization
and favorable ethane cracking economics amid weaker refining and petchem spreads. E&P EBITDA declined ~8%
QoQ (6% miss) due to lower KG D6 production.
Upstream:
While production for both
ONGC and OINL
came in above estimates in 4Q, both crude oil and natural
gas production trends were flat QoQ/YoY. Oil realization stood in the range of USD74-USD75 for upstream
companies. ONGC’s EBITDA stood 5% above estimate and OINL’s EBITDA came in line with estimate. Both
companies booked higher-than-estimated dry well write-offs.
OMCs – Higher-than-estimated GRM drives performance:
HPCL/IOCL/BPCL reported strong EBITDA
outperformance of 61%/110%/46% vs. our estimates, driven primarily by better-than-expected GRMs. Refining
throughput remained broadly in line with expectations. Marketing margins exceeded estimates for IOCL and BPCL,
while HPCL's were in line. Although LPG under-recoveries continued to weigh on profitability, they remained flat
QoQ across all three companies.
CGDs:
While
GUJGA’s
EBITDA margins exceeded our expectations,
MAHGL
and
IGL’s
adj. EBITDA margins fell
short. Total volumes for GUJGA/MAHGL/IGL were broadly in line with estimates at 9.2/4.2/9.18 mmscmd.
Realizations improved by INR1.3/INR3/INR3 per scm during the quarter, primarily due to recent price hikes and
provision reversals, partially offset by higher operating expenses.
Gas utilities:
Both GAIL and GUJS witnessed soft transmission volumes amid subdued demand from power, fertilizer
and CGD segments.
GAIL’s
EBITDA exceeded our est. by 11%, driven by strong gas marketing performance, which
offset weaker results in transmission and petrochemicals.
GUJS
reported a 30% EBITDA miss, driven by weak volumes
at 25.8mmscmd. Implied tariff stood in line at INR847/mmscm. Net profit was impacted by lower other income and a
higher tax rate.
PLNG’s
EBITDA beat our estimates by 21%, aided by UoP provision reversal. Adjusted EBITDA was in
line. Volumes were 8% below expectations at 205Tbtu due to lower third-party cargoes.
Others:
MRPL’s
EBITDA beat our estimates by 34% on a stronger GRM of USD6.2/bbl (core: ~USD 5.8/bbl). PAT was hit
by a higher tax rate, while refining throughput matched estimates at 4.6mmt.
CSTRL’s
results were in line with
estimates. EBITDA margin declined 55bp YoY and 615bp QoQ due to higher other expenses. Volumes met
expectations at 62m liters.
Ratings and earnings revisions:
IGL upgraded from Neutral to BUY:
IGL’s EBITDA margin appears to have bottomed,
supported by recent CNG price hikes and declining raw material costs. We estimate conservative EBITDA/scm of
INR6.2/6.5 for FY26/FY27 and 7% volume growth, below management’s 10% guidance. We cut
MRPL’s
FY27E GRM
to USD6.5/bbl (from USD7) and lower FY26E throughput to 17mmt (from 18mmt) due to planned maintenance.
Top picks:
MAHGL
– We expect a 10% CAGR in volume over FY25-27, driven by multiple initiatives implemented
by the company, such as collaborating with OEMs to drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing
guaranteed price discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.
HPCL
– It remains our preferred pick among the three
OMCs. We see the following as key catalysts for the stock: 1) the de-merger and potential listing of the lubricant
business, 2) the commissioning of its bottom upgrade unit in 2QCY26, 3) the start of its Rajasthan refinery in
FY26, and 4) LPG under-recovery compensation.
Surprise:
GUJGA, GAIL, IGL, HPCL, IOCL, MRPL and BPCL
Misses:
ONGC
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Guidance highlights:
Upstream:
ONGC:
Management guided for FY26 standalone production of 21.5mmt for oil and 21mmtoe for gas,
which it expects to grow to 22mmtoe in FY27, supported by Daman and KG-98/2 ramp-ups. FY26 capex is guided
at INR300-350b. OPaL performance is expected to improve in 1QFY26, aided by cheaper NW gas and SEZ exit
benefits.
OINL:
Management expects the Paradip-Numaligarh crude and Duliajan-Numaligarh gas pipelines to be
commissioned by Oct’25. FY26 capex is guided at INR150-160b, including INR91.3b for NRL. The Mozambique
project is set to restart in Jul’25. The company plans to drill over 75 wells in FY26, up from 60+ in FY25.
OMCs:
HPCL’s
management expects HRRL’s CDU to start soon, with MS/HSD production by 3QFY26. Key projects
like the Mangalore LPG cavern and Visakh bottom upgradation unit will be commissioned in 2QFY26. FY26 capex
is guided at INR130-140b, with equal allocation to refining, marketing, and JV equity contributions.
IOCL
plans to
add 3,000-4,000 retail outlets in FY26, expanding its network beyond 40,000. FY26 capex is guided at INR340b,
with major spends on refining and pipelines. Panipat and Gujarat refinery expansions are set for commissioning
by 4QFY25, while Barauni will be completed by 1HFY27.
BPCL’s
FY26-28 capex is guided at INR200b/INR250b/
INR300b. Bina refinery has reached 11% physical progress, while the Andhra project will have 40% petchem
integration. BPCL will invest USD2.1b more in Mozambique. Management guided for GRMs of USD7-9/bbl at
current spreads.
CGDs:
IGL
guides for EBITDA margins of INR6-7/scm for the near term and INR7-8/scm for the long term,
supported by INR appreciation and stable gas costs. It expects 10% volume growth in FY26, led by CNG and PNG.
MAHGL’s
management expects ~10% YoY volume growth in FY26, led by CNG; EBITDA margins are guided at
INR9-11/scm. Capex outlay for FY26 is INR13b.
GUJGA:
FY26 CNG volume growth is guided at 12% YoY;
EBITDA/scm to remain at INR4.5-5.5. Morbi volumes to stay steady in 1QFY26 amid soft fuel prices. FY26 capex
guidance is INR10b with 70 new CNG stations planned. Amalgamation scheme completion expected by Sep-
Oct’25.
Others:
GAIL:
Management expects to clock NG transmission volumes of 139/148/159mmscmd in FY26/27/28.
Management maintained its NG marketing EBIT guidance of INR40-45b for FY26. Additionally, the company is
expected to clock 108/114/120mmscmd marketing volumes in FY26/FY27/FY28.
PLNG:
Management guides
Dahej expansion commissioning in 3-4 months and 5-6% LNG volume growth in FY26, with INR45-50b capex
focused on the Dahej petchem project. Kochi terminal utilization is expected to improve by end-CY25, and no
major issues are anticipated from the new PNGRB rules.
MRPL:
MRPL expects stable GRMs of USD6-6.5/bbl and
~17mmt throughput in FY26. Retail volumes will exceed 300tkl with 150+ new outlets. FY26 capex will be around
INR10b, split between refinery maintenance and marketing. Gas use will rise to 0.65-0.7mmscmd, aided by power
infrastructure upgrades reducing fuel loss.
Exhibit 109: Implied gross marketing margin (INR/lit)
Implied marketing margin (INR/lit)
IOCL
HPCL
BPCL
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Exhibit 110: Reported refining margin (USD/bbl)
36.0
IOCL
21.2
USD/bbl
2.0
3.8
6.0
8.0
7.1
6.2
8.2
9.5
4.0
5.0
7.3
3.5
3.6
HPCL
BPCL
SG GRM
26.0
16.0
6.0
-4.0
5.5
3.2
Exhibit 111: Sales volume of CGDs (mmscmd)
Volumes mmscmd
11.4 12.1
9.8
GUJGA
IGL
MAHGL
9.2
9.3
9.2
9.7
11.0
8.8
8.6 9.0
3.9
4.0
9.5
9.1
4.1
11.4 11.4
9.9
9.8
7.6
4.1
5.5
2.7
7.3
8.1
3.4
8.3
8.9
10.0
9.3
9.2
4.2
6.3
6.8
5.3
2.4
7.2
3.1
7.7
3.3
7.7
7.9
8.1
3.5
8.2
3.4
8.3
3.6
8.5
3.7
8.7
3.8
2.8
1.1 2.1
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.4
Exhibit 112: EBITDA/scm trend for CGDs (INR)
EBITDA/scm
GUJGA
IGL
MAHGL
8.0
8.7
3.4
8.0
7.9
6.7
8.0
7.2
8.6
7.1
8.6
8.6
7.2
6.6
7.4
6.5
4.3
6.0
5.7
6.2
REAL ESTATE: Premium push powers FY25; pre-sales grow 19% in FY25 despite subdued launch activities
Pre-sales increased 4% YoY in 4Q (19% YoY in FY25):
In 4QFY25, our coverage universe reported bookings of
INR333b, a mere 4% increase YoY, due to the absence/delay in launches coming from OBER, KPDL, and
SIGNATUR. However, players within our coverage universe have mostly surpassed their FY25 pre-sales guidance
except for PEPL, SOBHA, and MLDL; these companies fell 29%, 26%, and 7% short of their guidance, respectively.
In 4QFY25, a few key listed players have demonstrated exceptional YoY growth primarily led by pre-sales (DLFU,
GPL, LODHA, SOBHA, SRIN, PEPL, and BRGD) even when sales from other players (OBER, MLDL, KPDL, and
SIGNATUR) were considerably lower. These key players contributed ~88% to the total reported bookings of our
coverage universe. GPL alone contributed ~31%, mainly due to 12 new project launches in the quarter across
five cities. Most of the listed players within our coverage experienced decent YoY growth in FY25. The key
players contributed ~83% of pre-sales.
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Even though the overall booking areas of listed players within our coverage universe declined 10%/3% YoY in
4Q/FY25, pre-sales increased 4%/19% YoY, reflecting higher sales from the Premium and Luxury segments with
higher ticket sizes. This also indicated that the demand for Premium and Luxury segments remained strong.
In 4QFY25, DLF, PEPL, SOBHA, and SRIN performed the best, recording 39%, 48%, 22%, and 28% YoY growth,
respectively. In contrast, GPL performed the best in terms of value, i.e., INR102b out of the total reported
bookings of INR333b for our coverage universe. In FY25, bookings of most of the companies from our coverage
universe grew 20-45% YoY, whereas in value terms, GPL excelled at INR294b out of the total reported bookings
of INR1,231b for our coverage universe.
Realization also improved 15%/22% YoY in 4Q/FY25 due to higher sales from the Luxury and Premium segments.
Double-digit growth aspiration intact for FY26:
Our coverage universe posted a 40% CAGR in cumulative bookings
over FY21-25, and the companies aspire to achieve 20-30% growth in FY26 since the delay/absence of key launches
in FY25 will spill over into FY26. In FY25, business development remained equally strong, led by GPL, LODHA, and
MLIFE, which added new projects worth GDV of INR265b, INR237b, and INR181b, respectively. Consequently,
companies identified a huge launch pipeline for FY26, which can support their future growth aspirations.
Launches dominated by a few players:
Unlike FY24, launches were low in FY25 due to a delay in approvals,
which were impacted by the state and national elections. Launches improved 25%/42%/50%/47% YoY for
DLF/GPL/OBER/BRGD in FY25, while other listed players within our coverage universe experienced either a flat
or declining trend. Prestige Estate posted a 17% YoY decline in FY25 launches due to a lack of approvals.
However, the delayed launches will spill over into FY26.
Collections:
Total collections for 4QFY25 increased 46% YoY to INR265b, leading to an increase in collection
efficiency (collections-to-sales) to 80% from 59% in 3QFY25. In FY25, collections increased 33% YoY to INR845b,
resulting in an increase in collection efficiency to 69% from 61% in FY24.
P&L performance – a mixed bag:
Aggregate revenue for the coverage universe increased 5% YoY to INR173b
(8% below our estimate). The individual performance was a mixed bag as DLF/Godrej/LODHA/Sobha/KPDL
reported healthy revenue growth, while other players within our coverage were hit by lower project deliveries.
Cumulative EBITDA stood at INR47b, down 2% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 27% (2% below 4QFY24).
View:
The operating performance of our coverage universe was below our expectations due to the impact of
delayed launches in pre-sales. We retain our FY26 pre-sales estimates (except for the upward revision of SRIN
and reduction for SIGNATUR) for all the companies, but we will critically monitor launches as many companies
have expressed concerns regarding approval delays. We prefer PEPL, BRGD, and SIGNATUR as our top picks.
Surprises:
GPL
Misses:
OBER
Company commentary:
LODHA:
The company has ended its growth phase in Bengaluru with the success of three projects and plans to
increase its market share to 15% in a decade’s time, as it did in other markets. It also executed two new data
center deals at INR210m/acre (10m/acre more than guidance), which clearly showcases Palava as the data
center hub for LODHA. The visibility of Palava is expected to increase further with the opening of the Airoli-Katai
tunnel by the end of FY26, leading to an expected 20% growth in sales. In FY25, LODHA successfully acquired
approximately 33 acres of land in NCR and around 45 acres in Chennai for digital infrastructure.
OBER:
4QFY25 did not see any new launches after the phenomenal response to the recent mixed-use Jardin
Project in Thane, which was launched in 3QFY25. One tower in Elysian was launched in 1QFY26. In FY26, OBER
expects to launch one tower in Borivali, one tower in Goregaon, and two towers in Forestville Thane.
Additionally, it will also launch projects in Gurugram, Adarsh Nagar, Worli, and Tardeo in FY26. Alibaug is
currently in the design phase and may be pushed to FY27. The company is witnessing strong leasing traction
across all three office assets. Commerz I and Commerz II are nearly fully leased out following an increase in
occupancy in Commerz III to 81% in 4QFY25.
DLFU:
FY25 saw 2 new launches wherein DLFU’s Ultra Luxury project named ‘The Dahlias’ with a total revenue
potential of INR350b and +70% gross margins, contributed to 65% of the full-year pre-sales. DLF is confident of
launching its Mumbai project in 1QFY26. Privana Phase-3 and Goa will be launched in FY26. Total projects with a
GDV of INR739b are planned beyond FY25.
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GPL:
In FY25, GPL exceeded its launch guidance by 22%, booking value guidance by 9%, collections guidance by
14%, delivery guidance by 23%, and business development guidance by 32%. Of the land acquired since FY23,
INR500-550b of launch-ready inventory remains. Overall, at the project level (including townships), the
remaining inventory is valued at INR1.1t. In 4QFY25, the Board approved fundraising of INR20b through non-
convertible debentures/bonds/debt securities via private placement. This follows INR60b raised through a QIP in
3QFY25.
PEPL:
It launched 14msf of new projects in 4QFY25 across Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Hyderabad with a GDV of
INR161.3b; stock in hand stood at 13.85msf. While the delay in approvals impacted launches for the year, these
have been spilled over into FY26. FY26 presales guidance at INR270b, with INR120-130b expected in 1QFY26;
GDV pipeline moderated to INR420b. BKC will be completed by FY28, and Aerocity office space, which is fully
leased out, will be completed by the end of CY25. A capex of INR70-80b will be incurred. Approvals have started
falling in place on the new launches. Evergreen, Raintree Park, Pallavpuram Chennai, and Dahisar-Mira Road
projects are all expected to be launched in FY26.
BRGD:
In 4QFY25, it launched Brigade Altius, Eternia, and Orchards, covering areas of 1.4/2.1/0.4 msf in Chennai
and Bengaluru. Across FY25, the company launched projects with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of INR117b.
The company has made good progress in the commercial portfolio’s occupancy, which rose to 92% in FY25 from
83% in FY24.
MLIFE:
MLDL has signed projects worth INR48b from Jan-Apr’25 and has acquired INR390b of its INR450b GDV
expansion target, with continued focus on Pune and Bangalore. The company is experiencing a significant shift
toward premium residential sales, with premium projects expected to drive 97% of sales value by FY30, while
affordable housing is being phased out. MLDL has approved a rights issue to raise INR15b for long-term debt
repayment and funding future acquisitions, positioning itself for further growth with a projected net worth of
INR34b post-issue.
SOBHA:
From the current sales, EBITDA margins to be recognized will be 40%. The management targets 33%
EBITDA margin and 28% embedded PBT margins to be attained at the project level from INR160b of revenue
remaining to be recognized and 15-18% excluding overheads and interest. Overall margins in 4Q have recovered
from earlier losses incurred from contractual business and reduction in JV projects. The RE margin is also at 8%
and is expected to further increase in the coming quarters. SOBHA has a robust upcoming pipeline of 18.56msf
across 18 residential projects in 9 cities and a commercial pipeline of 0.71msf across two projects, scheduled for
launch in the next six to eight quarters. The effective share of Sobha expected from the upcoming launch is
guided at ~81%.
SIGNATUR:
The company achieved pre-sales of INR103b, up 42% YoY in FY25 (in line), surpassing its FY25
guidance by 3%. Like-to-like price increases are in the 15–20% range across sectors like 37D and 71, driven by
robust infrastructure development and demand dynamics. The company achieved collections of INR12b, up
16%/8% YoY/QoQ, while it missed the guidance (61% below our estimate). This was due to construction delays
on account of the NGT restriction and lack of labor availability with contractors. The company guided pre-sales
of INR125b for FY26.
KPDL:
With Mumbai launches shifting to FY26, FY25 pre-sales declined 9% to INR27.9b. In FY25, launches stood
at INR40b. A 22-acre JDA was signed in Wadgaon Khurd, Sinhagad Road, Pune (near Nanded City), with an
anticipated GDV of INR40b and a total area of 5msf. Management expects a 25% CAGR in pre-sales over FY25-
27. Blackstone is set to acquire up to 66% stake in KPDL for a total commitment of INR18b.
SRIN:
Sunteck Realty (SRIN) reported presales of INR8.7b in 4QFY25, up 28% YoY. Traction in uber-luxury
projects increased 36% QoQ, with bookings of INR5.7b, or 66% of total presales. The upper-middle-income
segment accounted for 27% of presales. Aided by the strong launch pipeline, management guided for presales
growth of 25-30% in FY26. This growth will be driven by the uber-luxury and premium-luxury segments. In FY26,
more projects will come up for revenue recognition, such as Sunteck City – 4
th
Avenue, as the project has
received an occupation certificate.
PHNX:
In 4QFY25, total consumption stood at ~INR32b, up 15% YoY, driven by Phoenix Palassio, and the
continued ramp-up at Phoenix Mall of the Millennium and Phoenix Mall of Asia and Phoenix Palladium
Expansion. On a like-for-like basis (excluding the contribution from new malls), consumption rose 8% YoY. In
FY25, on an overall basis, jewelry/hypermarkets, the key categories, outperformed with 19%/3% YoY growth,
while electronics stood at 6% YoY. The entertainment and multiplex segment was up 12% YoY.
June 2025
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Exhibit 113: Pre-sales for our coverage universe rose 4%
YoY…
187%
Pre-sales (INR b)
Growth YoY %
231
87%
333
Exhibit 114: …while volumes declined 10% YoY
Sales volumes (msf)
149%
22.3
14.9
42% 34%
17% 9%
2%
15.4
24.3
22.3
50% 48%
18%
60%
18.2
23.7
19.1
Growth YoY %
26.3
159
52%
28%
29%
44%
4%
15%
58%
92%
30%
15% 4%
-5%
353
153 171 147 153
247 168 243 307 321 315
16.1 19.1 14.1
2%
16.4
-10%
-18%
-21%
24.6
Exhibit 115: Collections improved 40% YoY
Collections (INRb)
64%
34%
123 161
18% 21%
7%
123
136
33%
181
33%
22%
13%
156
163
181
191 208
254
28%
40%
Growth YoY %
Exhibit 116: Our coverage stocks to deliver 19% YoY growth
in bookings
Bookings (INRb)
FY24
31%
22%
-1%
20%
FY25
54%
-19%
42%
-6%
32%
31%
44%
115 136
27%
0% 0%
113
Exhibit 117: Estimate changes for our coverage universe
INR b
DLF
Godrej Properties
Macrotech
Oberoi Realty
Prestige Estates
Brigade
Sobha
Mahindra Lifespaces
Sunteck
Kolte Patil
Signature Global
FY26E
75
36
181
69
114
50
50
5
21
29
52
Old
INR b
DLF
Godrej Properties
Macrotech
Oberoi Realty
Prestige Estates
Brigade
Sobha
Mahindra Lifespaces
Sunteck
Kolte Patil
Signature Global
FY26E
26
2
52
40
31
18
8
-1
6
6
10
FY27E
12
7
54
48
33
22
12
0
2
5
22
FY26E
26
7
52
41
27
18
6
-1
2
6
8
Old
FY27E
57
56
189
89
141
61
58
8
9
26
85
FY26E
75
54
181
69
114
50
50
5
12
29
44
Revenue
New
FY27E
57
58
189
89
141
61
58
8
22
26
74
EBITDA
New
FY27E
12
9
54
48
29
22
8
0
5
5
18
Change
FY26E
0%
51%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-42%
0%
-17%
Change
FY26E
0%
349%
0%
1%
-11%
0%
-22%
7%
-66%
5%
-22%
FY27E
0%
23%
0%
1%
-13%
0%
-32%
180%
125%
6%
-18%
FY27E
0%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
132%
0%
-13%
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PAT
New
FY27E
32
18
36
37
10
13
8
3
1
4
17
FY26E
44
25
35
29
8
9
4
1
2
4
8
FY27E
33
24
35
35
10
13
5
3
4
3
18
Pre-sales
INR b
DLF
Godrej Properties
Macrotech
Oberoi Realty
Prestige Estates
Brigade
Sobha
Mahindra Lifespaces
Sunteck
Kolte Patil
Signature Global
INR b
DLF
Godrej Properties
Macrotech
Oberoi Realty
Prestige Estates
Brigade
Sobha
Mahindra Lifespaces
Sunteck
Kolte Patil
Signature Global
FY26E
170
263
144
74
165
78
70
29
23
33
94
Old
FY26E
233
321
213
98
262
105
100
34
29
41
130
Old
FY27E
199
284
172
91
220
94
111
34
33
41
129
FY27E
257
341
253
112
315
115
121
35
45
48
178
New
FY26E
FY27E
233
257
321
341
213
253
98
112
262
315
105
115
101
124
34
35
30
39
41
48
123
178
Collections
New
FY26E
FY27E
170
199
263
284
144
172
74
91
165
220
78
94
70
113
29
34
23
31
33
41
63
103
FY26E
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
4%
0%
-6%
Change
FY26E
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
3%
0%
-33%
FY27E
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
-7%
0%
-21%
Change
FY27E
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
-14%
0%
0%
FY26E
2%
39%
6%
-4%
2%
3%
-27%
-46%
-62%
-19%
-5%
Old
INR b
DLF
Godrej Properties
Macrotech
Oberoi Realty
Prestige Estates
Brigade
Sobha
Mahindra Lifespaces
Sunteck
Kolte Patil
Signature Global
FY26E
43
18
33
30
8
9
5
1
5
4
8
Change
FY27E
2%
34%
-1%
-4%
-2%
2%
-34%
-5%
158%
-16%
4%
RETAIL: Subdued demand environment continues to impact growth
Apparel and grocery retail: Growth moderates; profitability improves on reduced discounting and store
closures
Demand trends remained soft in 4QFY25 amid macro headwinds, though benefitting partially from a shift in the
festive calendar (Eid). Several retailers highlighted that regional softness in South India (notably AP and Telangana)
dragged down 4Q performance. That said, companies observed a sequential improvement in 2HFY25, driven by
easing base effects, normalization of weather patterns, and more favorable wedding calendars.
In 4QFY25, aggregate revenue for the six apparel stocks under our coverage moderated to
10% YoY
(vs. 14% in
3Q) to
INR114b
(in line). Despite a sharp deceleration in growth,
Trent (+28% YoY)
continued to outperform
among apparel retailers, while value retailers such as
V-Mart (+16% YoY)
continued to shine. Including DMart,
aggregate revenue increased
~13.5% YoY
(vs. ~14% YoY in 3Q).
Value retailers
(V-Mart, Trent, DMart) continued
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to outperform with
mid- to high-single-digit SSSG,
while
premium retailers
(ABFRL, Shoppers Stop) saw
relatively
modest SSSG,
aided by
unprofitable store rationalization and reduced discounting.
Profitability improved for most players, underpinned by cost discipline and operating leverage. Aggregate gross
profit (excl. DMart) was up
12% YoY
(vs. 13% in 3Q) to INR56b as margins
expanded by 55bp
YoY (90bp beat), led by
ABFRL (+605bp), Shop (+380bp) and V-Mart (+140bp), partially offset by Trent (-265bp) and RLL (-455bp).
Aggregate EBITDA (excl. DMart) was up 14% YoY (vs. 13% in 3Q) to INR16b (6% beat) as margins expanded ~50bp
YoY, led by ABFRL (+595bp), VMart (+270bp) and Trent (+100bp). RLL was the biggest drag with 95% YoY decline in
EBITDA due to weaker demand sentiment and impact of cyberattack.
DMart’s profitability was impacted by higher competitive intensity and continued increase in the cost of retailing.
Footwear: Demand remains subdued; weaker gross margins offset by strong cost controls
The aggregate revenue for the four footwear stocks under our coverage grew ~2% YoY (vs. 3% YoY in 3Q) to INR25b,
largely led by ~11-12% YoY growth for Campus and Metro. Relaxo continued to underperform with 7% YoY revenue
decline. Aggregate gross profit declined by ~2% YoY (~5% miss), as gross margin contracted ~185bp YoY (~155bp miss)
on account of non-BIS inventory liquidation. Bata/Relaxo reported ~230bp/535bp YoY gross margin contraction.
Aggregate EBITDA grew ~6% YoY (in line), largely led by better performance by Metro (25% YoY) and Campus (12% YoY).
Aggregate EBITDA margin expanded ~100bp YoY (~80bp beat), led by strong cost controls.
Retailers increase focus on boosting store productivity over store additions
Aggregate revenue growth for the 11 retail stocks under our coverage further moderated to 13% YoY in 4QFY25 to
INR284b (vs. 15% YoY in 3Q), driven by an 8% YoY improvement in store productivity on the back of continued store
rationalization. Net store additions (ex- RRVL) stood at 189, taking the total to 12,675 stores (+4% YoY), led primarily
by Zudio (Trent), DMart, and RLL. Retailers across segments prioritized operational efficiency and store productivity
in 4QFY25, actively rationalizing underperforming stores amid subdued demand and elevated rentals. While firms
such as ABLBL, ABFRL and Shoppers Stop pursued closures to enhance like-to-like growth, retailers such as Vedant
Fashions and Metro Brands adopted a cautious, calibrated approach to new store openings. Aggregate gross profit
and EBITDA for our retail coverage grew ~10% YoY (vs. ~12% YoY in 3Q) as gross/EBITDA margin contracted
~80bp/30bp YoY. Aggregate PAT for our retail coverage grew 13% YoY (vs. 14% YoY in 3Q). Excluding Trent, PAT grew
by a modest ~5% YoY (vs. ~7.5% YoY in 3QFY25).
Broad-based earnings downgrades continued:
Amid a muted demand backdrop, we have cut FY26-27E EBITDA by 3-
5% and earnings by ~7-10%, since 3Q results. Our EBITDA cut was broad-based with material downgrades for Vedant
Fashions, Raymond, SHOP, DMart and Trent on account of weaker demand and/or margin pressures. Campus and
VMart were the only stocks with broadly unchanged EBITDA, driven by their resilient performance.
Top picks:
TRENT, Metro Brands and Campus
Positive surprises:
ABFRL, Metro and Campus
Negative surprises:
Raymond Lifestyle, Vedant Fashions, D-Mart and Relaxo
Guidance highlights:
Demerged ABFRL:
The long-term plan is to triple sales and double EBITDA margin by 2030. After the recent fund
raise, ABFRL’s cash balance stood at ~INR23.5b (~INR9b net cash), and the fund raise is primarily earmarked for
scaling up value fashion (Style Up) and Ethnics (through Tasva). Management is targeting EBITDA breakeven for
all segments (except TMRW) by FY27.
ABLBL:
It will be listed by end-Jun’25. The company will start with net debt of ~INR7-8b, with plans to become
net debt-free in the next 2-3 years. Over the long term, the aim is to double revenue and improve profitability.
Shoppers Stop:
INTUNE witnessed a challenging quarter, marred by weak demand and higher discounting. SHOP
has trimmed guidance on INTUNE store additions to 40-60 for FY26 (from 90-100 earlier). In addition to INTUNE,
management has also lowered its FY26 guidance for departmental store additions to 6-7 stores (vs. 10-12 net
additions earlier). However, management is looking to fund the growth through internal accruals while focusing
on reducing leverage and inventory
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Vedant Fashion:
The company is witnessing some green shoots in demand in 1QFY26 (albeit on a weak base).
However, overall demand sentiment still remains weaker than expectations. LFL growth recovery is the key
focus for the company in FY26. Further, it expects the consolidation of high-rental unprofitable stores to
continue, at least until 1HFY26.
VMART:
The company is targeting ~17-20% revenue growth, driven by ~12% store additions and mid- to high-
single-digit SSSG. Healthy SSSG with operating leverage should be the key lever for margin expansions.
Campus Activewear:
Despite weaker underlying demand, the company was able to increase its market share
and anticipates this positive momentum to continue, with an aim for 17-19% EBITDA margin over the medium
term.
Metro Brands:
Management reiterated its guidance of ~15% revenue CAGR over the long term. Further, it
indicated that rentals are stabilizing and the company will continue to focus on opening meaningful and
profitable stores and is not fixated on particular store opening targets (earlier guidance of 140-145 store
openings for FY26).
Raymond Lifestyle:
The company expects revenue growth of 10-15%+ in FY26, driven by demand recovery,
dealer restocking, and easing inflation. Profitability is set to recover strongly as scale improves and store
performance stabilizes. Steady-state margins are targeted at 20-22% for Branded Textiles and 14-15%for the
overall business.
Relaxo Footwears:
The company expects a modest revenue recovery starting 2HFY26, driven by the stabilization
of its new distribution strategy and expansion in modern trade, e-commerce, and retail outlets. However, it does
not anticipate significant volume growth, as its long-term strategy emphasizes value growth through
premiumization and product mix improvements.
Exhibit 118: Aggregate revenue for retailers under our
coverage grew 13% YoY (vs. 15% YoY in 3Q)
Aggregate revenue (INR b)
25.8
28.7
6%
16.2
14.4
14.7
12.6
-1%
-7%
-11%
YoY growth (%)
17%
2%
Exhibit 119: Trent continued its outperformance in 4QFY25,
though growth moderation continued
29%
17%
10% 12%
1%
26.0
243.7
277.5
251.9
270.2
278.7
318.1
283.6
2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 120: Aggregate gross profit was up 10% YoY (vs. 12%
YoY in 3Q) as margins contracted ~80bp YoY
Aggregate Gross Profit (INR b)
33.2
32.3
32.3
32.3
32.4
31.7
31.5
GM (%)
Exhibit 121: Gross margin contraction driven by weaker GM
for Trent, Raymond, Relaxo and DMart
605
382
140
-24
4QFY25
YoY (%)
107
185
-229
-535
112
31.2
-266
-455
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
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Exhibit 122: Aggregate EBITDA grew ~10% YoY (vs. 12% YoY
in 3Q) as margin contracted ~30bp YoY; RLL was biggest drag
Aggregate EBITDA (INR b)
12.3
10.2
Aggregate EBITDA margin (%)
12.4
10.3
11.0
19.4
10.2
7.0
13.9
13.4
Exhibit 123: Aggregate PAT rose ~13% YoY (~5% YoY excl.
Trent, vs. ~7.5% YoY in 3Q)
Aggregate PAT (INR b, LHS)
53.2
YoY growth (%, RHS)
10.3
11.3
-11.7
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 124: Store additions moderated on rationalization of unprofitable stores by apparel retailers
Total Stores
ABFRL
DMART
SHOP
TRENT
VMART
Raymond
Vedant Fashion
Metro
Campus
Bata
Relaxo
Total coverage stores
QoQ net store adds
Note: Excluding Reliance Retail stores
3QFY24
4,753
341
290
715
454
1512
673
840
250
1,835
399
12,062
937
4QFY24
4,664
365
306
811
444
1518
676
839
268
1,862
405
12,158
96
1QFY25
4,607
371
320
823
448
1539
662
854
275
1,916
399
12,214
56
2QFY25
4,538
377
341
831
467
1592
650
873
288
1,955
403
12,315
101
3QFY25
4QFY25
YoY
4,492
4,420
-5.2
387
415
13.7
345
363
18.6
907
1,043
28.6
488
497
11.9
1653
1688
11.2
666
678
0.3
895
908
8.2
290
296
10.4
1,953
1,962
5.4
410
405
0.0
12,486
12,675
4.3
171
189
Source: Company, MOFSL
QoQ
-1.6
7.2
5.2
15.0
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.5
2.1
0.5
-1.2
1.5
Retail - Jewelry: Robust revenue growth with healthy margins
Jewelry companies continued to deliver robust sales growth as the demand environment was stable during the
quarter, despite macro uncertainties and higher gold prices. Moreover, the Akshaya Tritiya festival showed
strong demand trends, with customer sentiments remaining largely upbeat. Titan (Jewelry standalone, ex-
bullion), Kalyan, Senco, and P N Gadgil (retail) delivered revenue growth of 25%, 37%, 21%, and 50%,
respectively. The SSSG of Titan, Kalyan, and Senco stood at 15%, 21%, and 18%, respectively. There was an
improvement in the studded mix for Kalyan and Senco, while it declined for Titan. The solitaires segment
witnessed a healthy recovery, supported by increased traction in lower carat weights. Our top picks are Titan and
PN Gadgil.
Outperformer (4Q):
Titan, Kalyan Jewellers
Underperformer (4Q): Senco Gold
Guidance highlights:
TTAN:
The company expects an EBIT margin of 11-11.5% for FY26, with a stronger focus on absolute growth.
Additionally, it plans to open 40-50 new Tanishq stores and refurbish 50-60 existing stores across all formats
during the year.
Kalyan Jewelers:
Management expects EBITDA margins to remain steady or expand marginally in FY26,
supported by better operating leverage, efficient inventory turnover, and a calibrated approach to discounting.
In FY26, it plans to launch 170 showrooms across Kalyan and Candere formats - 90 Kalyan showrooms and 80
Candere showrooms in India.
Senco:
The company maintains its revenue growth guidance of 18-20% and remains on track to open 18-20 new
stores in FY26.
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P N Gadgil:
At the retail level, the company expects revenue growth of 30-35% in FY26, with EBITDA margins of
7-8% and PAT margins of ~4%. At the consolidated level, PAT margins are projected to be in the range of 2.85-
3.25%. The company plans to open 20-25 new stores in FY26, including 6-7 COCO, 6-7 FOCO, and 12-13 PNG
Lifestyle stores.
TECHNOLOGY: Macro fog delays discretionary spending uptick
Aggregate performance:
IT services companies within the MOFSL Universe posted a 0.7% QoQ decline in
median revenue in 4QFY25 (vs. growth of 1.8%/2.0%/1.2% in 3QFY25/2QFY25/1QFY25). The backdrop remains
challenging, as macro uncertainty continues to weigh on IT demand, marking a softer exit to FY25. FY26 setups
diverge across tier-1 companies: TCS/Wipro guide for weak 1Q; INFO strikes a cautiously optimistic tone with the
upper end of INFO’s guidance (3% YoY organic cc growth) assuming a ‘stable to marginally improving
environment’. HCLT leads with the most constructive guidance of 2-5% YoY cc. Overall, Street FY26/FY27E
revenue estimates are likely to see modest resets after 4Q. However, the commentary around the BFSI vertical
remains relatively steady compared to other verticals. In contrast, Manufacturing, Retail, and Healthcare are
facing pressure from trade-related policies and a shaky macro backdrop. What looked like a recovery in
discretionary spending earlier in FY25 now seems to be stalling, as clients adopt a wait-and-watch approach
amid concerns around trade tensions and a slower Fed rate cut cycle, and this has introduced new uncertainties
for enterprises in the US and Europe. Deal momentum stayed steady across tier-1 IT companies this quarter, but
conversion remains a watch point. TCS and Wipro have solid pipelines, though potential leakage and deferrals
could lead to lower conversion. HCLT, meanwhile, looks set for a stronger start to FY26, backed by healthy deal
flow. We prefer TECHM and HCLT in the tier-1 space and COFORGE and PSYS in the tier-2 space.
Tier-2 pack outpaces tier-1:
Tier-1 players posted a median revenue dip of 1.0% QoQ CC, while Tier-2 companies
recorded a robust growth of 2.8% QoQ CC, driven by strong performance by LTTS (10.5% CC QoQ growth) and
Persistent (4.5% QoQ CC). INFO (-3.5% QoQ CC), TECHM (-1.5% QoQ CC) and CYL (-1.9% QoQ CC) reported weak
growth. Persistent (+4.5% QoQ CC vs. 4.0% est.) and Coforge (+3.4% QoQ CC vs. 3.0% est.) outperformed their
peers with strong executions in 4Q. On the margin front, tier-1 companies reported ~40bp decline, while tier-2
companies held their margins steady at ~14%. The margin contraction for tier-1 was majorly attributed to
subdued revenue growth, wage hikes (INFO), and investment in capabilities (TCS). For tier-2, the margin
remained stable, supported by better margin performance by PSYS/CYL, better-than-expected Cigniti’s margins
(COFORGE), and growth leverage.
Steady TCV performance:
A majority of tier-1 companies reported stable TCV performance, except for HCLT/TCS
(up 43.0%/19.6% QoQ). Tier-2 companies also reported robust growth in TCV, with COFORGE witnessing an
order intake of USD2.1b in 4Q with five large deals. HCLT’s new deal TCV stood at USD3b (up 43% QoQ/31% YoY)
in 4QFY25. Within tier-2, COFORGE’s order intake was USD2.1b. Five large deals were signed during the quarter.
The 12-month executable order book rose 47.4% YoY to USD1.5b. The 4Q book-to-bill was decent at ~1.0x for
tier-1 firms and ~1.9x for tier-2 players.
Headcount movement:
Hiring activity was muted in 4Q; the net headcount declined by ~150 for tier-1, while
tier-2 saw a net addition of ~1,900. The attrition rate remained range-bound at lower levels for a majority of
companies, while utilization also remained stable QoQ, except for MPHL and INFO. For PSYS, utilization stood at
88% (up 100bp QoQ) and we believe this margin lever is now maxed out.
Top picks:
We prefer TECHM and HCLT among large-caps and COFORGE and PSYS in the mid-cap space. Our
positive outlook on TECHM is driven by early signs of transformation under new leadership and improving
execution in BFSI. Margin expectations are now more reasonable, and niche offerings are resonating well. We
believe TechM’s transformation remains relatively decoupled from discretionary spending. We continue to like
HCLT for its all-weather portfolio. Often perceived as defensive, its strengths in data, product engineering, and
modernization should enable it to benefit from the recovering demand environment. We believe Coforge’s
strong executable order book and a rebound in BFS client spending bode well for its organic business. Cigniti
could prove to be an effective long-term asset. PSYS, with its strong product engineering background, remains
the fastest-growing IT services company in our coverage and is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term
GenAI investments.
Significant beat:
TECHM (margin), Coforge (revenue growth and margin), PSYS (revenue growth and margin)
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Significant miss:
TCS/WPRO (revenue growth), LTTS (revenue growth and margin), CYL (revenue growth and
margin)
Significant surprise:
INFO (upper end of 3.0% guidance better than beaten-down estimates), WPRO (1Q
guidance significantly below estimates), LTTS (fall short of FY25 guidance)
Major EPS upgrades/downgrades:
LTTS’ FY25E/FY26E EPS were reduced by 7%/6%. CYL’s DET business
FY26/FY27 EPS estimates were cut by 5% each. For PSYS/COFORGE, their FY27 EPS estimates were upgraded by
3-4%.
Guidance highlights
TCS:
The company observed delays in decision-making around discretionary spending. The anticipated revival in
such spending, as expected in 3Q, has not materialized. Sectors such as Retail, CPG, Travel, and Automotive are
expected to be the most affected by tariffs. The demand environment in BFSI remains strong, except for
Insurance, which has been experiencing some challenges. Management maintains a positive outlook for FY26 (to
be better than FY25), especially in international markets. Management maintains its margin guidance in the 26–
28% range. Some pressure may arise from reduced utilization and the lack of currency tailwinds. Subcontracting
costs are expected to unwind as the BSNL deal ramps down, which should support margin improvement.
INFO:
The environment remains uncertain. With changes in the economic outlook, client conversations are
increasingly centered on cost take-outs and vendor consolidation. Third-party costs and revenues are expected
to be lower in FY26 vs. FY25, given the current deal pipeline. The company sees opportunities for pricing
improvement through value-based selling and does not expect pricing pressure from vendor consolidation deals.
FY26 revenue growth guidance stands at 0-3% in CC terms. M&A deals closed during the quarter are expected to
contribute 40-50bp to full-year revenue growth in FY26. The top end of the guidance assumes steady to marginal
improvement; the lower end assumes elevated macro challenges. EBIT margin guidance remains at 20-22%.
WPRO:
Clients remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty, even though the underlying demand for
technology modernization remains strong. Many clients are engaged in scenario planning to evaluate the
potential impact of tariffs, which led to delays or holdbacks in further investments. Large transformation
projects are either paused or have had their timelines realigned. Some clients are also re-evaluating their IT
budgets. Margin pressure is expected in 1QFY26 due to two headwinds: 1) the overall revenue environment and
2) pricing pressure in cost-takeout and vendor consolidation deals. The company aims to maintain margins
within a narrow band going forward. Margin levers include sustaining or improving utilization, enhancing fixed-
price productivity, and rationalizing overhead costs.
HCLT:
Discretionary spending will remain subdued. Tariffs and de-globalization are expected to impact the IT
sector, leading to potential budget cuts and deal re-negotiations. Clients are looking to diversify supply chains.
The tariff impact will hit the Manufacturing and Consumer segments first, and eventually become broad-based
(with a possible one-quarter lag). FY26 revenue growth guidance: 2-5% YoY CC (same for Services), with 1%
contribution from inorganic growth. Guidance is supported by strong 4Q bookings. It focuses on building non-
linearity in revenues — aiming for higher productivity and growth with a leaner workforce. Delivery model will
be location-agnostic. FY26 EBIT margin guidance is maintained at 18-19%.
TECHM:
Consolidation and cost-takeout programs are expected to play a key role in this environment, alongside
the growing importance of GCC deals. Softness was observed in the auto and hi-tech segments over the past
three months. Margin gain in FY25 was aided by a 100bp benefit from the reduction of the non-core portfolio. A
20-30bp tailwind is expected in FY26 from the same. Most clients acknowledge a gap between AI potential and
realized value; TECHM sees this as an opportunity to deliver AI more effectively. The company views AI as a
major industry tailwind.
LTIM:
LTIM is adjusting its portfolio from a higher discretionary mix to longer-term efficiency programs. Some
closed deals failed to ramp up as planned; certain 4Q deals got delayed. Clients were largely in "wait-and-watch"
mode during 4Q, but they are opening up now for conversations. Productivity gains were delivered to the top
client in 3Q and 4Q. No pricing reset has happened and no future impact is expected on pass-backs. Focus areas
for margin improvement would be pyramid correction and an improved span of control.
June 2025
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Exhibit 125: For Tier-1 companies’ growth was impacted by
tariff uncertainty
Tier I Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)
Exhibit 126:
Tier-2 continued to post mid-teen growth
Tier II Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)
13.9% 15.0%
10.1%
10.8%
7.8%
8.0%
6.7% 7.2% 6.1%
8.9%
6.8%
4.4% 4.4%
0.8% 0.4%
1.9% 2.5%
3.3%
1.6%
12.6%
Exhibit 127: Tier-1 margins impacted by wage hikes, while Tier 2 margins were stable
20.1
15.4
Tier I EBIT Margin (%)
20.1
20.1
Tier II EBIT Margin (%)
20.1
19.9
20.4
19.2
14.8
19.9
20.0
14.2
14.9
15.1
14.2
13.8
14.0
14.1
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 128:
Median utilization (%) increased by 110bp QoQ
IT Sector - Median Utilization (incl. trainees %)
83.9%
82.9%
81.5% 81.8% 81.9% 81.6%
Exhibit 129: Median attrition (%) was stable in 4Q
IT Sector - Mediam Attrition (%)
84.6%
83.5%
84.6%
19.8%
17.3%
14.6%
12.9% 12.5% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2% 13.3%
Figures excl. LTTS. from 1QFY23; MPHL (Offshore); Source:
Company, MOFSL
Figures exclude MPHL; Source: Company, MOFSL
TELECOM: Muted 4Q as residual tariff hike benefits offset by two fewer days QoQ
As expected, 4QFY25 was a muted quarter for the telecom sector as residual benefits of tariff hikes were offset by
two fewer days QoQ. The combined wireless revenue for three private telcos inched up ~1% QoQ (+15% YoY, in
line). Blended wireless ARPU for the three private telcos was up 0.7% QoQ (+15% YoY), while subscriber trends
continued to improve with ~8m net adds (vs. +1m/-21m in 3Q/2Q). EBITDA for private telcos was up ~2% QoQ (+20%
YoY, in line), driven by healthy incremental margins. Among private telcos, Bharti continued to be the biggest gainer
from tariff hikes, with a ~175bp gain (+7bp QoQ in 4Q) in revenue market share (RMS) and ~110bp gain (+23bp QoQ
in 4Q) subscriber market share (SMS). RJio with a higher share of users on longer duration plans was the biggest
gainer in 4Q, gaining ~27bp RMS QoQ (but lost 22bp in FY25), while its SMS was up by modest 8bp QoQ (up 21bp
YoY) in 3Q. Vi continued to lose market share, with RMS down further ~35bp QoQ (-155bp in FY25) and SMS down
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~30bp QoQ (-130bp YoY). We believe the bulk of tariff hike benefits have now reflected, with further ARPU growth
likely to be driven by subscriber mix improvements over the next few quarters. We continue to assume a tariff hike
of 15% (or INR50/month) on smartphone plans from Dec’25. Vi’s network rollout accelerated in 4Q, with the highest
quarterly capex and network rollout since the merger, as it commenced its INR500-550b capex plans. Conversely,
with the completion of accelerated 5G rollouts, we expect wireless capex to moderate for Bharti and RJio, with the
focus now shifting to driving greater adoption of home broadband through accelerated fiber rollouts and the scale-
up of FWA offerings.
Residual tariff hike flow-through offset by two fewer days; RJio was the biggest gainer in 4QFY25
ARPU in 4Q is typically impacted by two fewer days QoQ. However, driven by the residual flow-through of tariff
hikes, blended wireless ARPU of private telcos was up 0.7% QoQ (~15% YoY) in 4QFY25. RJio with higher proportion
of subscribers on longer duration plans witnessed slightly better growth vs. peers (though lower than our estimate).
The subscriber trends continued to improve as the impact of tariff hike-led SIM consolidation wanes. The combined
reported subscriber base for private telcos grew by ~8m (vs. -21m/+1m in 2Q/3Q), with Bharti reporting robust ~5m
net adds, followed by ~4m for RJio. Vi continued to lose subscribers in 4Q, but the quantum of subscriber losses
moderated significantly to 1.6m from ~5m in 2Q and 3Q. After a ~13% QoQ increase in combined wireless revenue
of private telcos, revenue was up ~1% QoQ as residual tariff hike benefits were offset by two fewer days QoQ. RJio
led with modest ~2% QoQ growth, followed by ~1% QoQ for Bharti, while Vi’s wireless revenue declined ~1% QoQ as
tariff hike benefits were offset by continued subscriber base declines.
Robust incremental margin drives modest ~2% sequential growth in combined EBITDA for three private telcos
Driven by tariff hike flow-through and lower network opex, the incremental margin for private telcos improved to
~85% (from 80% QoQ). As a result, combined EBITDA grew ~2% QoQ (~20% YoY). After astonishing 90% incremental
margins in 3Q, Bharti surprised once again with robust ~85% incremental margins to drive ~2% QoQ (+29.5% YoY)
EBITDA growth, with margin expanding ~35bp QoQ to 59.2%. RJio witnessed slightly higher EBITDA growth, driven
by acceleration in fixed broadband subscribers and higher ARPU uptick, though its margins remained stable for the
second successive quarter at ~52.8%. Vi’s reported EBITDA declined ~1% QoQ, while its pre-INDAS 116 EBITDA
dipped ~5% QoQ to INR23.2b, due to lower revenue and the impact of acceleration in its network rollouts.
Vi’s network rollout accelerates, Bharti and RJio’s capex to taper off further in FY26
Vi’s capex increased to INR42b (~INR96b for FY25), its highest ever since the merger, as it rolled out ~8.5k MBB
towers. Vi’s 4G population coverage increased ~600bp to reach 83% in Mar’25, while it commenced 5G rollouts
in select towns, with plans to roll out 5G in key cities across its 17 priority circles by Aug’25.
Bharti’s India capex (excl. Indus) at INR103b was up ~53% QoQ (+21% YoY), driven by investments in cloud and
data centers (in B2B) and the timing of certain shipments in wireless. However, Bharti’s India capex (excl. Indus)
moderated to INR303b in FY25 (vs. INR334b YoY) and management has reiterated its guidance for capex to taper
off further in FY26.
RJio’s FY25 cash capex (incl. payment of creditors for capex and spectrum repayments) stood at INR462b (down
14% YoY from ~INR534b in FY24), while its gross block additions (a proxy for committed capex) moderated to
INR422b (vs. ~INR583b YoY), driven by the completion of the first phase of pan-India 5G rollout.
Bharti generated ~INR390b in FCF (after leases and interest) and used up ~INR260b for spectrum prepayments.
With the leverage ratio in a comfortable range (consol. net debt to EBITDAaL at 1.42x), Bharti doubled its
dividend payments in FY25 and we expect a further step up in dividend payouts in the coming years.
Vi’s net debt (excl. leases) declined by ~INR302b to INR1.87t as it accounted ~INR370b equity conversion of GoI’s
spectrum dues. However, Vi continues to face significant GoI repayments pertaining to AGR dues over FY26-31.
RJio’s FCF (after interest, leases and spectrum repayments) stood at ~INR39b (vs. FCF outflow of INR151b in
FY24). Effective net debt (including spectrum debt and creditors for capex) declined by INR221b to INR1.87t.
Indus’ dividend deferral despite robust FCF generation was disappointing:
Indus Towers’ (Indus) 4Q results were
impacted by several one-offs (consummation of tower deal with Bharti Airtel, one-off revenue and continuing past
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period provision reversals). Adjusted for one-offs, operational performance was broadly in line with the pick-up in
tenancy additions. Indus’ 4Q recurring EBITDA grew 4% QoQ (+10% YoY) to ~INR41b (largely in line). Driven by
collection of Vi’s past dues and moderation in capex, Indus’ FY25 FCF stood at ~INR97b (of which INR27.5b was used
for buyback in 1H). However, despite robust FCF generation, Indus deferred its decision on rewarding shareholders
through dividend reinstatement/buyback to a committee, which was the key disappointment.
TCOM’s subdued performance continued:
TCOM’s data revenue grew 10% YoY (+4% QoQ), driven by ~17% YoY
(~6% QoQ) growth in digital portfolio and modest ~3% QoQ/YoY growth in core connectivity revenue. However,
adjusted consolidated EBITDA margin contracted ~125bp QoQ (-35bp YoY) to 18.7%, leading to 3% QoQ decline in
EBITDA (8% miss).
Top picks:
BHARTI, RIL
Positive surprises:
Vodafone Idea
Negative surprises:
Reliance Jio, Tata Communication
Guidance highlights:
RJio:
5G now accounts for ~40%/45% of RJio’s subscriber base/data consumption. Management indicated that
the consumption profile of 5G users is significantly higher and the company’s large 5G user base provides the
company significant monetization opportunities through higher data plan offerings and additional value-added
offerings over the next few years. On fixed broadband, the company continues to target ~100m connections
through a mix of FTTH and FWA over the medium term (vs. ~18m at end-4QFY25).
Bharti:
In FY25, India capex (excl. Indus) at INR303b was lower than ~INR334b in FY24, in line with
management’s guidance. Management expects capex to further unwind in FY26. Going ahead, the priorities for
capex would be investments in the transport layer, Home Broadband, data centers and B2B, while radio capex
would decline in FY26, with the completion of the rural rollout. On capital allocation, the company aims to strike
a fine balance between its priorities such as: 1) deleveraging the balance sheet, 2) stepping up dividend
payments, and 3) selective and prudent investments to bolster capabilities in B2B adjacencies. Moreover,
management seemed open to increasing its stake in subsidiaries such as Indus Towers and/or Airtel Africa.
Bharti Hexacom:
Similar to its parent Bharti Airtel, management expects BHL’s capex to decline in FY26 as there
is no major rural rollout planned in BHL’s circles.
Vi:
The company added ~7.6k towers and ~34k net MBB sites in 4Q, its highest network rollout since the merger.
As a result, its 4G population coverage increased by ~600bp, reaching 83% by Mar’25. Management plans to
increase the 4G population coverage to 90% of population over the medium term and roll out 5G in key cities
across its 17 priority circles by Aug’25.
TCOM:
Following a strong 1HFY25, the order booking pace has normalized in 2H. Further, given the global macro
uncertainties, there is an elevated level of caution among customers, which has led to a deferral of some deals
from 4QFY25 to 1QFY26. However, management remains committed to doubling data revenue to INR280b by
FY27 and improving margins to 23-25% over the medium term.
Indus:
The order book remains robust, and the focus is on driving growth both organically (through higher
market share in key customers’ rollouts) and inorganically.
June 2025
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Exhibit 130: Subscriber trends improved for the industry in
4Q
Bharti (India)
Vi
RJio
Exhibit 131: Bharti continued to lead peers on ARPU
Bharti (India)
Vi
RJio
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY23
FY24
FY25
Exhibit 132: Wireless KPI comparison
1Q
EOP Wireless SUBS (m)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
Avg. Wireless Subs (m)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
ARPU (INR/month)
Bharti (India)
Vi
RJio
MOU/Sub (min)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
Wireless traffic (B min)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
Data usage/Sub (Gb)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
Data traffic (B Gb)
Bharti (India)
Idea
RJio
321
255
441
321
262
433
146
104
138
FY22
2Q 3Q
323
253
430
322
254
435
153
109
144
323
247
421
323
250
425
163
115
152
4Q
326
244
410
324
246
416
178
124
168
1Q
327
240
420
327
242
415
183
128
176
FY23
2Q 3Q
328
234
428
328
237
424
190
131
177
332
229
433
330
232
430
193
135
178
4Q
335
226
439
334
227
436
193
135
179
1Q
339
221
449
337
224
444
200
139
181
FY24
2Q 3Q
342
220
460
340
221
454
203
142
182
346
215
471
344
218
465
208
145
182
4Q
352
213
482
349
214
476
209
146
182
FY25
1Q 2Q
355
210
490
353
211
486
211
146
182
352
205
479
353
208
484
233
156
195
3Q
357
200
482
354
202
480
245
163
203
4Q
YoY QoQ
(%) (%)
362 2.7 1.4
198 -6.8 -0.8
488 1.3 1.3
359 2.9 1.4
199 -7.0 -1.7
485 1.8 1.0
245 17.3 -0.1
164 12.3 0.6
206 13.5 1.4
1,044 1,053 1,061 1,083 1,104 1,082 1,094 1,122 1,138 1,123 1,127 1,158 1,128 1,135 1,160 1,163 0.4 0.2
642 629 620 614 620 601 611 623 626 613 615 626 607 586 593 598 -4.5 0.9
815 835 901 962 1001 968 984 1004 1002 979 981 1008 974 977 1013 1024 1.6 1.1
1,002 1,020 1,030 1,051 1,079 1,063 1,082 1,124 1,149 1,148 1,161 1,210 1,195 1,200 1,233 1,254 3.6 1.7
504 480 465 452 450 428 424 425 420 406 401 402 385 365 360 357 -11.2 -0.8
1060 1090 1150 1200 1246 1230 1270 1313 1335 1334 1370 1440 1420 1420 1460 1490 3.5 2.1
18.5 18.6 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.3 20.3 20.3 21.6 22.2 22.5 23.1 24.3 24.5 25.1 25.7 11.2 2.5
13.0 13.2 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.2 15.0 4.4 5.6
15.6 17.6 18.4 19.7 20.8 22.2 22.4 23.1 24.9 26.6 27.3 28.6 30.3 31.0 32.3 33.6 17.4 4.1
10.3 10.7 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.9 13.2 13.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.2 19.8 20.7 21.6 21.2 4.5
5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 1.9 5.2
20.3 23.0 23.5 24.6 25.9 28.2 29.0 30.3 33.2 36.3 38.1 40.9 44.1 45.0 46.5 48.9 19.6 5.2
Source: MOFSL, Company
June 2025
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Exhibit 133: Financials
1Q
FY22
2Q 3Q
4Q
1Q
FY23
2Q 3Q
4Q
1Q
FY24
2Q 3Q
4Q
FY25
1Q 2Q
3Q
4Q
YoY
(%)
QoQ
(%)
Revenue (INR b)
Bharti (India wireless) 143 152 161 175 181 189 194 195 204 210 216 221 225 248 263 266 20.6
1.3
Bharti (consolidated)
269 283 299 315 328 345 358 360 374 370 379 376 385 415 451 479 27.3
6.1
Idea
92
94
97 102 104 106 106 105 107 107 107 106 105 109 111 110
3.8
-0.9
RJio
180 187 193 209 219 225 230 234 240 248 254 260 265 283 293 300 15.6
2.4
EBITDA (INR b)
Bharti (India wireless)
70
75
79
89
93
99 104 105 112 115 119 122 125 142 155 158 29.5
1.9
Bharti (consolidated)
130 138 147 160 165 176 185 187 196 195 198 194 197 218 246 270 39.5
9.8
Idea
37
39
38
46
43
41
42
42
42
43
44
43
42
45
47
47
7.5
-1.1
RJio
86
90
95 105 110 115 120 122 126 130 133 136 139 150 155 159 16.5
2.4
EBITDA Margin (%)
Bharti (India wireless) 49.2 49.2 49.4 50.6 51.1 52.3 53.8 53.8 54.8 54.9 55.1 55.1 55.6 57.1 58.8 59.2
407bps 35bps
Bharti (consolidated)
48.3 48.8 49.2 50.9 50.4 51.0 51.5 51.9 52.3 52.7 52.3 51.5 51.2 52.7 54.5 56.4
491bps 191bps
Idea
40.5 41.1 39.3 45.4 41.6 38.6 39.4 40.0 39.0 40.0 40.8 40.9 40.0 41.6 42.4 42.3
143bps -8bps
RJio
47.9 48.0 49.2 50.3 50.1 51.0 52.2 52.2 52.3 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.6 53.1 52.8 52.8
37bps -1bps
Reported PAT (INR b)
Bharti (consolidated)
2.8 11.3 8.3 20.1 16.1 21.5 15.9 30.1 16.1 13.4 24.4 20.7 41.6 35.9 147.8 110.2 432.0 -25.4
Idea
(75.0) (71.5) (72.2) (65.5) (73.0) (76.0) (79.9) (64.0) (78.4) (87.4) (77.4) (76.7) (64.3) (71.8) (66.1) (71.7) -6.6
8.4
RJio
35.0 35.3 36.2 41.7 43.4 45.2 46.4 47.2 48.6 50.6 52.1 53.4 54.5 62.3 64.8 66.4 24.5
2.5
EPS (INR)
Bharti
0.5 2.1 1.5 3.6 2.9 3.8 2.8 5.3 2.8 2.4 4.3 3.6 7.2 6.2 25.5 19.0 426.7 -25.5
Idea
(2.5) (2.5) (2.5) (2.0) (2.3) (2.4) (2.5) (1.3) (1.6) (1.8) (1.4) (1.6) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) -35.7
6.3
Source: MOFSL, Company
UTILITIES: Mixed quarter; NTPC lags on PAT but JSWE, ACME, and Suzlon outperform
Overall performance:
For our coverage universe, revenue and EBITDA both increased by 4% YoY and were in line
with our estimates. However, adjusted PAT (APAT) came in 5% below expectations, primarily due to NTPC
underperforming by 10%, while JSWE/ACME/Suzlon exceeded our estimates by 34%/109%/44%.
Overall a mixed quarter – JSWE/ACME/Suzlon beat our APAT estimates, while NTPC a miss: IEX’s
standalone
revenue missed our estimate, primarily due to a lower-than-estimated per-unit transaction fee. The reported
standalone PAT was in line with our est. led by an 18% YoY rise in electricity volumes and other income. IEX's
overall volumes rose ~27% YoY in 4QFY25, driven by an 18% rise in electricity volumes and a 107.5% surge in
renewable volumes.
NTPC’s
standalone revenue exceeded our estimate, driven by a 2% YoY growth in
generation, but EBITDA fell short, primarily due to a 27% YoY increase in other expenses. PAT also came in below
expectations, mainly due to higher-than-anticipated depreciation, finance costs, and tax rates. Gross power
generation rose 2% YoY to 95BUs in 4QFY25. The PLF for coal, hydro, and gas plants stood at ~81%, 13.9%, and
2.1%, respectively.
TPWR’s
EBITDA came in 7% above our estimate, driven by robust growth in Orissa
distribution, strong results in Mundra, coal, and shipping, and higher contributions from both traditional and
renewable generation. APAT was in line with our expectations.
JSWE
missed our revenue and EBITDA estimates,
mainly due to weaker performance at the Ratnagiri/Barmer thermal plants, with net generation falling 7%/11%
YoY. Despite lower fuel costs, standalone EBITDA remained under pressure due to higher employee expenses
and increased other opex. JSWE completed the acquisition of both KSK Mahanadi and O2 Power.
PWGR’s
standalone revenue, EBITDA, and PAT met our estimates. Higher-than-expected interest expenses were offset by
lower depreciation, taxes, and higher other income.
ACME’s
4QFY25 revenue was 5% ahead of estimates, driven
by higher-than-estimated generation and improved CUFs. EBITDA rose 117% YoY, surpassing estimates by 10%,
and EBITDA margin stood at 89%, supported by favorable operating leverage and efficiency.
Suzlon’s
consolidated revenue was 6% above our estimates, driven by ~15% higher-than-expected WTG deliveries.
EBITDA/APAT exceeded expectations by 38%/44%, on the back of a stronger gross margin.
Ratings and earnings revisions:
PWGR –
We trim our DPS estimate to INR10, reflecting a 17% reduction in the
dividend payout estimate due to the elevated capex guidance provided by the management.
ACME –
Its 4QFY25
June 2025
75
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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APAT exceeded, prompting an upward revision in our FY26 APAT by 42% driven by adjustments to expected
finance costs, other income, and the tax rate.
Suzlon –
Considering a strong 4QFY25 financial performance, we
increase our APAT estimate marginally by 4%, supported by improved gross margin in the wind turbine
generator (WTG) segment.
Top picks:
JSWE, Suzlon, and ACME Solar
remain our preferred picks.
Surprises:
ACME, Suzlon, and
JSWE.
Misses:
NTPC, TPWR.
Guidance highlights:
PWGR:
Management reiterated a strong growth outlook driven by an aggressive capex trajectory, with targets
set at INR280b for FY26, INR350b for FY27, and INR450b for FY28. Despite missing the FY25 capitalization
guidance by ~50%, PWGR aims to capitalize INR230-250b in FY26. However, management cautioned that the
rising capex burden may pressure future dividend payouts. Leh–Ladakh HVDC: Land acquisition and
infrastructure work in progress. Awarding of the line from Pang to Leh is expected in 2QFY26. Clarity from the
Government of India on the Paradip–Andaman HVDC link is anticipated by 2QFY26. As per the National
Electricity Plan (NEP), over INR9t of transmission projects would be completed by FY32, and of these, INR3t
projects are already allocated. Hence, the remaining would have to be allocated by FY29, implying heavy bidding
activity over the next four years.
NTPC:
Management remains focused on long-term capacity expansion, with a group-level capacity addition
target of 11,806MW in FY26 and 9,904MW in FY27. NTPC plans to invest INR 876b in standalone capex from
FY25–FY27 (averaging INR292b annually) and INR2.6t in group capex (averaging INR884b annually). Captive coal
production is projected at 50 MMT (FY26), 56 MMT (FY27), and 60 MMT (FY28). NTPC has secured 6 GW of land,
with another 8 GW in the pipeline; connectivity has been arranged for RE targets until FY27. Beyond FY27, land
and CTU connectivity could be a challenge, prompting state partnerships. The company also plans 20 GW of
pumped storage projects (PSPs), with the first 1 GW targeted by FY26. Its nuclear power target is 30 GW by
2047. The Mahi Banswara Nuclear Project is progressing through regulatory clearances; excavation is expected
by Jul’25, and operations to begin in FY32.
JSWE:
Management has outlined an ambitious growth strategy targeting a total generation capacity of 30GW
and 40GWh of energy storage by 2030, supported by a planned capex of INR1,300b between FY26-FY30. For
FY26, the company aims to invest INR150-180b in capex. Recent acquisitions of KSK Mahanadi and O2 Power are
expected to drive EBITDA growth starting in FY26, while the Vijayanagar plant’s full PPA tie-up reduces merchant
exposure to under 1GW and lowers imported coal dependence to around 9-10%, helping stabilize earnings.
Management remains confident in achieving 2.7x to 3x EBITDA growth by FY30 over FY25 pro forma levels.
TPWR:
Tata Power's management has outlined a robust growth roadmap for FY26, with a capex target of
INR250b (~60% is earmarked for RE expansion and ~30% for transmission and distribution broadly, but might
change). The company aims to commission 2.5-2.7GW of RE capacity in FY26, supported by a 5.5GW pipeline
slated for execution over the next 6–24 months. While the RE installation target is ambitious amid sectoral
headwinds like land acquisition and transmission constraints, management remains confident. In the cell and
module segment, TP Solar’s plants are now fully operational, and output is projected to exceed 3,700MW for
both products in FY26. Additionally, progress on DISCOM privatization opportunities, including in key states like
Uttar Pradesh, could serve as key growth drivers. The 600MW Dagachhu hydro project in Bhutan is also
underway, with completion targeted by Nov’29.
IEX:
Management remains optimistic about sustained volume growth, backed by strong momentum in electricity
and renewable energy markets. The company is awaiting regulatory approval to extend Term-Ahead Market
(TAM) contracts from 90 days to 11 months, which would open access to a 40BUs trader addressable market. No
update has been received from CERC for potential market coupling.
ACME:
The company expects to commission 450MW in FY26 (165MW of this and 112.5MW commissioned
recently and the balance ~135MW is expected to be commissioned within a month) and 1.89GW in FY27. The
June 2025
76
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
goal is to reach 7GW by FY28 and 10GW by FY30. All projects have secured transmission connectivity, with 2.5
GW in surplus. Over 50%/60% of the land required for solar/wind components of the projects is already
acquired, and applications have been made for ~10,000 acres of government land. ACME is also developing a
600MW x 6-hour PSP project in Uttar Pradesh.
Suzlon:
Management has guided at least a 60% YoY increase across key metrics – deliveries, revenue, EBITDA,
and PAT. COD is also expected to rise by over 60%. The strong order inflow momentum is likely to continue,
especially driven by PSUs, with no visibility concerns over the next 18–24 months. Suzlon’s focus remains on the
domestic market, with export readiness in place. Segment margins are expected to remain stable, with WTG
contribution margin at ~23% and consolidated EBITDA margin near 17%. Capex is pegged at INR4.0-4.5b in FY26.
Exhibit 134: Key snapshot
Particulars
Total generation growth (%)
Conv. Generation growth (%)
RE generation growth (%)
All India Peak Demand (GW)
Capacity addition (GW)
Net Coal
Solar
Wind
Total capacity addition
FY18
5.4
4.1
24.9
161
6.0
9.4
1.8
17.2
FY19
5.2
3.6
24.4
176
3.6
6.5
1.6
12.1
FY20
0.7
0.0
7.8
183
4.1
6.4
2.1
14.0
FY21
-0.6
-1.6
7.7
189
4.2
5.5
1.6
12.0
FY22
8.1
7.1
16.2
201
1.4
13.9
1.1
17.3
FY23
9.0
7.7
19.1
212
1.2
12.8
2.3
16.6
FY24
7.2
6.7
10.9
240
5.7
15.0
3.3
25.9
FY25
5.0
4.0
11.7
250
4.2
23.8
4.2
33.3
Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL
Exhibit 135: India’s power generation
India's Power generation (BU)
12.2
3.1 6.7 2.2 -1.6
3.9
-19.6
11.1
-7.1
12.5
5.6
12.5
Addition in Power generation (BU)
9.1 6.6
-5.7
-19.3
18.6
-2.8
-10.4
-1.2
1.3
-5.1 -2.6 -5.8 -4.2
Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL
Exhibit 136: India’s power generation capacity (GW)
India's Power generation capacity (GW)
Source: NPP, MOFSL
June 2025
77
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Exhibit 137: India’s peak demand
Peak Demand (GW)
Source: CEA, MOFSL
Exhibit 138:
India’s power supplied (BUs)
Power supplied (BU)
Source: CEA, MOFSL
Exhibit 139: India’s power generation growth
Total Generation including RE (BU)
8%
5%
9%
4% 5%
9%
6% 6% 5% 5%
1%
-1%
8%
% growth
9%
7%
5%
Exhibit 140: Peak demand growth
Peak Demand (GW)
Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL
Source: CEA, MOFSL
June 2025
78
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
ANNEXURE:
MOFSL UNIVERSE (ACTUAL V/S EXPECTATIONS)
Company
Automobiles
Amara Raja Energy
Apollo Tyres
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
Balkrishna Inds
Bharat Forge
Bosch
CEAT
CIE Automotive
Craftsman Auto
Endurance Tech.
Eicher Motors
Escorts Kubota
Exide Inds.
Happy Forgings
Hero Motocorp
Hyundai Motor
Mahindra & Mahindra
Maruti Suzuki
Samvardhana Motherson
Motherson Wiring
MRF
Sona BLW Precis.
Tata Motors
Tube Investments
TVS Motor
Capital Goods
ABB India
Bharat Electronics
Cummins India
Hitachi Energy
KEC International
Kalpataru Proj.
Kirloskar Oil
Larsen & Toubro
Siemens
Thermax
Triveni Turbine
Zen Technologies
Cement
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Industries
India Cements
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Cem.
Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Chemicals-Specialty
Alkyl Amines
Atul
Mar-25
3,363.3
29.7
64.2
119.1
121.5
28.4
21.6
49.1
34.2
22.7
17.5
29.6
52.4
24.3
41.6
3.5
99.4
179.4
313.5
406.7
293.2
25.1
69.4
8.5
1,195.0
19.6
93.9
1,148.1
31.6
91.2
24.6
18.8
68.7
62.0
14.1
743.9
53.9
30.8
5.4
2.9
691.0
60.1
98.9
28.1
40.9
89.3
12.0
35.8
19.0
23.9
52.4
230.6
173.0
3.9
14.5
Sales (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
5.7
4.6
-0.4
6.3 -6.0
-6.0
2.6 -7.3
-2.2
5.7 25.6
0.6
5.8 -5.1
2.2
5.2 10.3
4.4
-7.1 3.2
1.2
16.0 10.0
9.6
14.3 3.7
1.9
-6.4 7.7
3.5
58.3 11.0
7.7
11.2 3.6
-1.9
23.1 5.4
1.1
6.1 -17.2
5.3
3.7
8.1
4.3
2.5 -0.7
-3.6
4.4 -2.7
2.7
1.5
7.8
4.2
24.5 2.7
5.4
6.4
5.7
2.1
9.1
6.0
1.6
12.4 9.1
6.8
11.7 0.9
0.0
-4.0 -2.1
0.4
-0.4 5.2
-5.4
-0.3 2.5
-1.9
14.9 3.2
2.0
9.9 17.1
-5.2
2.6 -6.1
-6.3
6.9 58.4
2.7
6.1 -20.4
-14.0
11.1 16.3
-19.4
11.5 28.5
0.5
20.5 28.6
2.9
1.5 21.4
7.6
10.9 15.0
-7.0
-6.3 7.4
-5.9
11.6 23.0
6.0
17.5 6.9
-1.9
116.3 107.4
11.2
10.9 22.0
2.1
11.3 14.2
5.9
11.2 16.3
0.6
6.0 24.7
11.4
-5.0 28.6
-3.7
31.9 9.9
3.5
-3.9 32.5
18.4
15.3 22.2
8.4
6.6 26.8
7.4
-10.5 21.0
-10.8
3.3 23.7
5.6
13.0 29.7
0.1
10.4 8.6
2.7
8.3
4.0
-1.4
19.8 2.5
2.6
EBITDA (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
459.9
2.5 12.5
0.8
3.4
-16.1 -17.7
-14.6
8.4
-22.4 -11.6
-1.2
17.9
12.5 47.8
6.9
24.5
6.3 -5.0
3.2
7.0
-0.9 10.1
1.7
6.2
-5.7 1.1
-0.8
6.5
16.1 11.0
13.2
3.9
-0.9 13.8
9.9
3.4
-7.0 12.1
6.2
2.4
17.7 22.4
11.3
4.2
14.4 13.4
8.1
12.6
11.4 4.7
-2.9
2.9
0.7 -12.6
19.3
4.7
-9.6 4.0
-1.8
1.0
5.3
0.8
-2.5
14.2
4.1 -4.1
2.2
25.3
0.4 35.0
20.2
46.8
42.0 4.8
11.9
42.6
-9.0 -4.6
-7.6
26.4
-1.0 -1.6
-8.7
2.7
-6.9 14.2
10.2
10.4
3.7 30.1
25.6
2.2
-13.0 -7.8
-2.6
166.3
-2.2 27.6
-3.3
2.3
5.0 -6.2
-1.0
11.7
26.4 8.3
6.0
148.2 13.5 31.3
3.8
5.8
3.0 -11.4
-7.4
27.9
22.3 68.7
35.0
5.2
-4.5 -13.4
-5.0
2.7
49.1 62.5
4.7
5.4
38.9 43.9
-3.6
5.2
30.8 30.2
5.0
1.7
-2.3 48.8
10.8
82.0
13.4 31.1
-1.0
7.0
-20.2 -3.2
-10.5
3.0
9.7 58.6
5.4
1.2
34.0 10.2
3.7
0.9
109.4 157.0
-1.7
116.8
6.3 66.6
7.1
8.0
-4.4 69.4
14.7
18.7
9.9 110.9
30.2
5.3
13.0 115.3
49.6
7.9
21.3 55.2
-5.8
2.2
-58.1 -18.5
-38.8
0.0
-99.0 LP
LP
7.6
36.6 55.4
16.7
3.5
4.4 74.1
19.9
3.2
-23.1 14.8
-30.7
14.1
6.4 49.2
7.0
46.2
12.3 59.5
0.3
31.3
13.9 16.3
4.0
0.7
-1.5 -4.8
-17.4
2.2
51.1 -0.5
22.7
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
281.2
7.8
19.3
6.3
1.7
-26.8 -27.4
-23.0
2.7
-41.8 -20.4
-0.6
12.6
32.4 64.9
15.7
20.5
5.8
-2.8
3.2
3.6
-25.8 -17.6
-17.8
3.6
-8.8
4.0
2.0
5.5
-1.9
12.3
-4.3
1.3
-16.3 30.5
17.6
2.1
-10.5 15.1
10.2
0.7
20.3 209.3
84.2
2.4
21.0 27.9
20.1
13.6
27.3 16.4
6.5
2.7
9.1
-6.7
17.4
2.5
-10.3
3.9
-4.6
0.7
3.0
5.0
1.0
10.8
6.4
-10.1
3.1
16.1
-3.7
39.1
22.0
24.4
21.9 -17.8
2.8
37.1
-4.3
5.3
5.9
10.0
9.4
14.1
0.8
1.6
-13.8 17.8
12.0
5.0
6.1
62.3
52.2
1.5
-0.6
-5.9
8.6
88.9
15.1 62.5
6.3
2.6
5.0
62.0
2.2
6.9
42.2 11.6
2.2
100.4 14.2 43.0
7.6
4.7
3.2
-10.9
-7.3
21.0
18.0 59.9
23.1
5.2
-7.2
1.4
4.4
2.0
73.5 130.8
14.8
2.7
76.7 107.0
10.9
2.7
51.8 68.9
14.5
1.1
-10.2 62.4
9.8
51.3
18.8 52.8
6.4
5.8
-27.4 -5.2
-9.7
2.1
5.3
80.8
-8.3
0.9
25.9
2.2
-4.3
0.8
177.3 119.9
15.2
49.7
-2.8 132.6
12.7
5.1
4.5 127.8
25.7
4.5
-16.1
8.0
17.8
2.9
52.2 818.9
174.9
3.6
40.7 503.4
28.2
-2.1
PL
Loss
Loss
-0.7
Loss
Loss
Loss
3.6
69.1 90.9
19.7
1.9
23.3 226.0
34.2
0.3
-76.7 787.7
-78.3
5.8
-12.5 152.4
33.8
24.9
7.8
83.1
1.8
17.3
18.1 27.8
4.6
0.5
19.7
5.2
-11.9
1.3
121.3 11.1
55.8
June 2025
79
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sales (INR b)
EBITDA (INR b)
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Gr (%)
Var. over
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
2.6
15.9 9.5
3.6
1.0
10.9 6.4
-1.5
0.7
5.4
12.8
1.7
21.8
2.5 14.5
13.6
3.2
5.1 87.8
67.6
2.0
3.4 106.4
84.9
5.8
10.5 9.7
-3.8
1.1
-18.3 0.2
-27.6
0.9
-15.5 -0.5
-28.5
11.4
23.2 9.9
13.9
1.3
24.9 20.2
84.3
0.8
-2.1
17.4
115.6
7.0
16.4 15.6
0.7
1.8
62.4 21.3
-2.8
1.0
35.0 13.6
-8.3
3.4
-4.7 6.8
1.4
0.3
-22.8 40.8
-13.9
0.2
-50.4 10.1
-35.9
17.9
2.6 -6.0
1.0
4.6
3.1 -11.0
5.6
3.3
-10.6 -11.3
6.9
43.1
20.8 23.5
3.7
10.0
40.9 53.3
12.4
5.7
30.4 87.1
21.5
35.1
1.0 -2.3
-4.8
3.3
-26.2 -24.7
-35.2
-0.3
Loss
Loss
PL
6.5
17.8 24.3
5.4
1.8
22.2 28.6
1.4
1.3
22.1 33.5
2.3
882.1
6.2
0.6
-0.1
202.6
1.5
0.4
0.8
141.8 -1.0
1.0
-1.3
83.6
-4.3 -2.2
-2.0
14.4
-15.1 -12.3
-5.8
8.8
-30.7 -21.7
-14.8
43.8
9.0 -2.0
0.5
8.1
2.3 -4.7
2.7
5.6
4.2
-4.0
3.0
14.6
-1.8 0.0
-5.6
5.0
-6.4 9.6
-7.3
3.6
-6.5
10.0
-9.7
28.3
0.6 -15.7
1.8
4.3
-8.6 -37.4
2.5
3.3
-8.2 -38.1
5.0
9.6
8.1 -8.2
1.1
2.2
4.0 -35.2
-1.9
1.8
8.6
-39.7
3.2
36.0
6.3 -4.5
-0.9
7.6
-0.2 0.4
3.4
4.3
-24.8 -14.0
-15.6
156.7
3.0 -0.9
0.0
36.2
2.4 -2.1
0.0
25.7
2.6
-1.5
1.6
3.9
0.7 13.1
-1.2
0.9
3.3 52.9
9.4
0.6
6.0
58.0
17.1
187.7
4.7 -0.1
2.3
65.2
-1.6 2.5
0.7
50.7
-0.9
7.3
-0.4
6.7
1.1 -5.3
-3.9
1.1
3.3 -3.3
-3.4
0.8
3.1
-7.8
-4.7
22.3
7.4 -2.0
-4.9
2.6
5.4
3.4
-2.0
1.6
7.9
12.0
2.0
27.3
19.8 -2.3
1.8
4.6
3.6 -14.1
-3.6
3.4
7.9
-14.0
-0.3
55.0
4.5 15.2
-0.2
14.1
5.0 25.9
8.5
8.7
-4.5
27.7
0.0
9.9
-1.1 -20.5
-8.8
2.1
-18.5 -43.5
-22.1
1.6
-15.8 -41.9
-22.4
11.0
10.6 -16.4
2.2
2.4
43.1 -22.2
23.2
1.6
51.6 -19.9
33.4
31.4
8.2 -6.8
0.1
6.3
9.6 -20.8
0.3
4.5
20.2 -19.0
2.4
46.1
17.3 3.7
0.4
6.2
-1.4 10.0
5.1
3.1
-17.9
9.7
0.0
23.2
8.9 16.2
-0.9
1.9
31.2 31.9
28.9
1.0
20.5 52.1
13.9
29.5
10.5 -14.2
-1.5
5.1
39.5 -14.1
11.9
3.8
62.3
-9.7
14.9
55.7
28.9 50.9
-0.5
12.6
27.8 117.9
-1.5
7.3
35.3 291.2
-6.1
234.3 21.3 34.1
3.7
26.1
34.1 54.0
10.2
18.4
36.9 67.1
13.4
65.4
20.2 33.8
5.2
7.6
19.3 77.5
16.8
5.2
15.7 86.0
14.7
29.1
25.7 18.1
10.1
3.0
23.2 25.1
12.4
2.3
34.2 37.5
22.4
69.9
24.9 33.7
3.5
10.3
34.6 42.4
6.7
7.3
33.1 58.8
12.7
22.2
26.4 24.4
7.2
1.9
68.6 75.8
28.3
1.3
64.0 88.3
33.5
47.7
13.4 53.5
-2.6
3.3
74.6 68.6
-2.4
2.4
132.2 82.4
-2.0
171.2 71.3 14.5
3.3
12.6
74.8 48.9
11.2
6.5
60.1 59.0
-5.3
37.5
33.8 76.0
21.6
2.9
32.8 85.7
17.7
1.2
22.6 223.5
-10.2
3.4
58.1 22.1
11.3
0.4
140.5 19.4
2.6
0.2
243.8 1.2
-5.2
4.3
18.3 -3.6
-7.6
0.6
50.9 58.9
5.4
0.3
36.5 84.4
-4.4
4.0
117.4 238.5
31.7
1.5
60.7 176.7
24.2
1.1
60.5 155.4
20.6
102.9 121.0 -1.5
2.5
4.4
142.7 13.4
12.7
1.8
93.9
7.8
-17.3
9.8
54.5 48.9
-2.8
1.7
76.3 78.5
-1.2
1.2
43.0 74.8
-2.6
9.2
-18.5 6.3
-32.1
1.1
45.9 36.0
2.2
0.7
87.3 28.5
2.7
4,692.3 3.5 14.4
-0.6
1,843.6 5.2
7.2
2.7
1,288.7 6.1
10.5
4.3
924.9
5.9
0.3
0.9
675.5 -5.1 -2.6
-1.2
410.3 -5.9
-2.4
-2.9
20.9
56.6 3.5
0.7
12.9
94.6 7.2
7.4
5.0
35.9
-4.7
6.5
138.1
5.5
1.5
-0.3
107.5
2.1
2.1
-4.0
71.2
-0.2
12.9
-1.0
27.6
-3.9 -2.6
-1.8
15.7
-14.5 -22.3
-8.2
3.2
482.0 -25.5
-29.3
5.6
9.9
2.8
-1.3
3.1
30.7 12.6
7.3
1.8
13.8 16.9
12.0
8.3
5.5
1.3
1.0
3.1
-16.9 -6.5
-5.2
0.4
-79.7 -36.5
-42.8
23.8
8.3 -2.2
-1.0
14.7
32.0 -6.6
-0.2
10.3
13.7
7.8
12.0
320.7 10.3 4.6
4.6
265.4
-9.4 6.1
3.8
176.2
6.7
5.3
3.4
211.9 11.0 4.0
1.6
176.6 17.5 4.6
3.5
126.3 18.0
7.1
5.0
49.1
9.8
0.1
-1.8
18.1
8.9
3.0
3.4
3.0
-58.0 -10.4
5.7
30.5 -43.3 -41.7
-14.5
-4.9
PL
PL
PL
-23.3
PL
PL
Loss
72.8
5.4
1.2
-2.3
54.7
0.2
5.6
-3.1
35.5 -14.1
7.5
-6.0
Company
Clean Science
Deepak Nitrite
Fine Organic
Galaxy Surfactants
Navin Fluorine
NOCIL
P I Industries
SRF
Tata Chemicals
Vinati Organics
Consumer
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Consumer
Hind. Unilever
Indigo Paints
ITC
Jyothy Labs
L T Foods
Marico
Nestle
P&G Hygiene
Page Industries
Pidilite Inds.
Tata Consumer
United Breweries
United Spirits
Varun Beverages
Consumer Durables
Havells India
KEI Industries
Polycab India
R R Kabel
Voltas
EMS
Amber Enterp.
Avalon Tech
Cyient DLM
Data Pattern
Dixon Tech.
Kaynes Tech
Syrma SGS Tech.
Financials
Banks-Private
AU Small Finance
Axis Bank
Bandhan Bank
DCB Bank
Equitas Small Fin.
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IDFC First Bank
IndusInd Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
June 2025
80
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sales (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
15.6
-2.3 -1.4
-0.3
899.0
1.2
1.4
-1.6
110.2 -6.6 -3.5
-5.5
94.4
-1.4 3.2
0.2
63.9
6.2 -0.4
-2.3
107.6
3.8 -2.5
-6.5
95.1
0.8
3.0
0.6
427.7
2.7
3.2
0.1
2,330.7 0.6 30.7
-1.8
237.7 16.0 41.7
-13.1
52.3
19.6 3.6
14.8
168.3 11.1 32.9
3.7
1,475.9 -3.1 38.1
-0.5
118.6 10.5 44.3
0.4
240.0 -4.9 -4.0
-5.3
38.0
11.9 0.0
-0.5
476.9 18.4 7.2
3.9
2.7
12.4 5.1
1.3
98.1
22.4 4.5
-0.3
3.5
6.3
1.1
-0.6
30.6
29.8 5.8
-1.5
8.8
-0.5 1.6
-3.5
5.6
21.2 3.6
2.0
2.7
-25.4 19.9
-7.1
1.7
26.2 5.8
1.2
13.1 -20.2 6.4
5.6
21.5
8.2 -3.9
-4.7
21.7
-3.2 8.3
5.6
19.3
6.4
0.9
-2.3
14.4
-3.4 -9.2
-9.1
2.3
34.5 9.9
5.1
29.0
36.0 6.7
-0.8
59.1
39.5 25.9
27.5
7.3
16.8 5.4
3.8
6.1
8.5 -0.6
-12.4
61.7
37.4 20.1
18.4
1.7
4.9 -4.2
-6.7
55.7
9.4 -0.4
-3.8
2.1
-46.8 -25.1
-11.0
60.8
15.3 -3.8
1.8
6.5
13.7 7.7
11.3
4.3
17.3 -3.7
-1.6
2.2
20.4 -6.3
-3.9
7.4
-14.9 -16.4
-1.6
8.5
74.9 10.2
12.2
3.6
14.7 -3.7
6.5
2.2
-6.8 -19.3
-6.7
9.0
29.6 -3.6
-2.1
2.8
23.8 -2.5
1.6
2.9
60.9 -3.3
-1.9
5.7
21.0 -3.6
-0.5
7.7
29.5 6.7
11.4
2.8
18.0 -0.7
2.6
3.6
13.4 -4.1
0.2
913.2 12.4 3.4
1.6
17.7
16.7 4.5
8.1
31.4
7.1 -6.8
0.2
11.7
11.0 2.1
5.1
EBITDA (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
8.6
-2.9 -13.6
3.1
672.0
9.3 16.0
6.1
81.3
0.3
6.1
-3.1
82.8
12.1 5.7
7.8
50.2
16.6 5.7
4.5
67.8
5.6
2.3
-6.9
77.0
17.9 2.8
0.6
312.9
8.8 32.8
13.7
77.3
0.9 39.8
4.6
13.8
11.5 48.0
1.1
-2.1
Loss Loss
Loss
8.0
2.4 53.8
-0.5
35.3
-3.0 83.5
0.8
8.5
3.8 74.2
8.5
16.6
9.9 -11.2
14.0
-2.8
Loss Loss
Loss
387.9 20.5 8.7
4.1
2.0
10.5 3.3
-1.1
79.7
24.3 2.1
-2.3
2.9
8.4
1.1
0.4
23.3
43.2 9.6
7.0
6.3
-7.1 1.8
-6.6
4.0
19.2 2.1
0.4
0.9
-69.0 39.1
-31.9
1.5
28.3 4.3
-0.4
6.6
-16.6 11.1
-20.8
14.2
4.6 -3.7
0.0
18.8
-1.3 7.4
8.5
12.1
3.4 -0.7
-5.3
6.8
-26.8 -26.6
-28.8
1.5
34.7 9.6
5.5
21.5
42.3 4.3
0.0
65.5
39.8 27.0
19.8
6.5
14.1 11.5
6.2
2.4
-41.8 -36.1
-47.2
61.6
39.0 22.8
19.5
1.3
1.6 -9.4
-12.6
43.4
11.0 6.1
1.3
0.3
-90.5 -68.0
-37.2
30.9
11.8 -10.4
0.6
3.2
16.4 11.2
19.5
2.4
19.1 -11.1
-2.8
0.9
24.2 -15.1
-9.1
2.4
-48.6 -39.2
-11.9
4.8
405.3 11.4
22.0
1.6
11.2 -7.8
17.2
1.1
-26.0 -31.9
-9.5
7.3
35.4 -4.4
-1.4
1.2
16.9 -6.4
3.8
1.6
57.1 -17.1
-12.4
3.7
25.6 -5.3
2.0
3.4
41.3 0.8
10.6
0.7
12.9 4.1
14.8
1.5
17.9 -19.5
-9.7
216.9 17.6 2.4
0.6
2.7
4.6
4.5
17.6
3.9
-2.7 -48.5
-14.6
3.0
6.8 -7.4
2.2
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
0.7
-80.5 110.5
136.3
412.0
8.7
9.0
4.0
50.5
3.3
4.3
3.0
50.0
33.1 21.9
20.2
29.6
31.6
3.6
3.5
45.7
51.7
1.3
0.5
49.8
50.6
8.3
8.4
186.4 -9.9
10.4
0.5
212.4 34.7 59.0
21.1
4.8
15.9 14.8
-14.8
5.1
-1.9 -29.7
-11.5
3.9
121.7 18.6
-16.0
190.1 38.1 72.0
28.6
0.4
LP
-45.6
-77.4
8.1
0.3
47.7
-5.9
0.0
-99.6 -99.8
-99.6
229.0
5.9
10.8
5.3
1.5
7.8
5.0
-3.2
45.5
18.9
5.6
0.6
2.3
11.9 10.3
4.9
12.7
19.7 16.6
3.3
0.5
-88.1
LP
-32.4
2.8
18.2
1.9
1.0
-1.6
PL
Loss
Loss
1.0
25.4
7.5
0.3
2.1
-44.4 409.1
-6.7
6.4
14.8
1.6
-0.2
13.7
25.4
-4.5
7.2
5.6
-9.0 -37.4
-1.6
-2.0
PL
PL
PL
0.8
18.8
3.5
-3.5
15.1
42.7 10.6
-0.5
51.1
23.5 23.0
16.8
5.5
25.3 13.9
9.4
0.6
-81.2 232.8
-65.8
42.4
5.5
5.1
20.5
1.1
6.4
7.9
-0.4
21.4
9.9
2.8
-1.0
-4.3
PL
Loss
Loss
25.1
-1.0
-9.6
3.2
2.5
3.6
-9.1
7.4
2.3
9.5
1.6
11.8
0.7
29.6
-4.6
4.7
1.7
-48.7 -38.0
-13.0
4.9
366.5 127.2
40.4
1.1
9.5
-9.1
15.1
1.0
-22.4 -22.6
10.4
6.4
18.0
-0.5
3.1
0.9
14.2
-5.7
1.2
1.4
54.2 -15.4
-12.5
3.0
-12.9
1.0
9.7
2.6
41.3
1.4
14.5
0.5
15.9
7.1
16.4
1.0
-43.8 -41.2
-24.2
137.2 16.7
6.6
5.5
1.6
-12.3 13.4
37.7
3.1
0.6
-51.1
-15.9
2.2
16.4
-0.1
9.7
Company
RBL Bank
Banks-PSU
Bank of Baroda
Canara Bank
Indian Bank
Punjab National Bank
Union Bank
State Bank
Insurance
HDFC Life Insur.
ICICI Lombard
ICICI Pru Life
Life Insurance Corp.
Max Financial
SBI Life Insurance
Star Health
NBFC - Lending
AAVAS Financiers
Bajaj Finance
Can Fin Homes
Chola. Inv & Fin.
CreditAccess
Five-Star Business
Fusion Finance
Home First Fin.
IIFL Finance
L&T Finance
LIC Housing Fin
M & M Financial
Manappuram Finance
MAS Financial
Muthoot Finance
PFC
PNB Housing
Poonawalla Fincorp
REC
Repco Home Fin
Shriram Finance
Spandana Sphoorty
NBFC - Non Lending
360 ONE WAM
Aditya Birla AMC
Anand Rathi Wealth
Angel One
BSE
Cams Services
CDSL
HDFC AMC
KFin Technologies
MCX
Nippon Life AMC
Nuvama Wealth
Prudent Corp.
UTI AMC
Healthcare
Alembic Pharma
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
June 2025
81
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sales (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
13.1 1.2
4.0
10.6 5.1
2.3
12.8 15.6
8.3
9.2 -4.9
-2.6
12.2 11.5
5.4
31.9 6.8
2.0
20.1 3.3
2.8
28.0 -3.0
-7.4
-7.3 3.0
-3.1
6.3 -3.9
-2.1
15.2 -1.3
2.4
1.8
5.3
5.8
4.8
2.6
0.2
10.5 0.1
3.1
19.5 21.6
13.3
14.2 -0.4
3.7
26.1 -3.7
0.3
28.5 1.5
1.7
7.9 24.9
-0.1
8.5 -1.8
-4.3
7.8
5.3
0.8
18.0 23.9
7.6
-8.4 17.8
-3.6
-9.9 32.8
-8.8
4.3
6.1
11.2
-27.8 20.2
-20.1
13.7 3.7
-2.0
23.1 6.6
1.3
7.1 -6.2
-5.7
-1.6 3.6
-9.3
17.0 8.6
-4.0
8.2 -1.5
-4.7
-3.1 3.6
-0.8
9.3
2.8
0.6
5.3 -2.0
-2.5
-0.2 -3.3
2.6
-0.5 -27.2
1.3
-2.0 14.5
-1.7
0.7 10.4
5.4
5.5
7.9
3.4
-1.0 2.6
-1.2
15.9 11.1
10.3
20.4 5.5
6.3
-2.3 12.2
9.2
-3.1 8.3
0.3
47.2 13.0
20.7
7.9
6.6
2.2
11.7 19.7
0.3
-4.2 4.8
0.3
13.9 3.4
4.0
1.7
3.2
7.1
7.4
7.5
8.0
-4.6 -1.7
16.1
7.3
5.0
4.7
10.4 2.1
11.0
-0.8 -1.2
3.7
-55.7 -14.6
-12.3
-4.4 -0.9
16.5
EBITDA (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
7.7
20.2 1.1
0.1
18.6
10.4 14.4
2.7
10.8
17.7 37.2
27.1
15.4
16.9 -22.7
-12.5
8.9
21.2 19.2
15.0
1.3
24.2 21.3
-0.9
20.5
16.1 -5.6
-6.4
2.5
48.6 0.8
-7.7
3.5
-3.1 -3.5
17.4
5.6
11.2 -6.5
-5.2
2.2
17.6 -6.8
5.0
2.5
-1.3 9.6
0.0
3.3
29.5 17.8
19.4
4.3
33.2 -7.4
5.8
4.2
74.2 47.5
18.4
12.9
29.6 -6.1
3.9
7.1
19.8 -13.2
-13.6
6.1
22.9 -1.6
-2.5
5.6
5.9 66.1
1.0
32.8
12.3 -8.2
-8.8
9.8
11.1 7.3
1.2
21.6
33.2 66.5
19.2
14.2
1.7 12.8
5.5
3.0
0.6 94.6
20.8
10.0
12.1 1.4
9.4
1.2
-42.2 0.2
-35.2
66.1
18.7 3.6
-7.0
50.1
23.8 4.2
-6.1
1.2
-15.3 -19.2
-22.0
4.3
-11.4 -5.4
-23.2
6.4
10.3 9.4
-4.5
0.8
37.3 5.4
0.7
0.3
-41.4 -9.1
-16.0
1.2
11.2 2.7
-4.1
1.9
77.1 12.1
22.9
7.0
-2.6 -28.9
-0.8
-0.1
PL
PL
Loss
4.3
-16.1 -1.2
-7.4
2.9
35.7 -10.4
1.6
600.6 20.4 6.6
6.0
112.3
5.5 -2.2
1.1
88.4
32.3 16.5
13.6
48.2
32.1 7.1
8.6
24.8
1.5 13.6
9.6
63.8
4.1 14.3
-3.1
27.5 148.7 18.3
43.9
20.5
-2.4 -13.5
-16.1
34.8
97.0 71.6
20.9
65.6
-0.6 -8.3
1.9
114.7 30.8 3.3
6.3
995.7
3.4
4.7
16.3
724.3
1.4
0.8
3.2
78.1
-15.7 3.0
46.0
3.1
4.6 -18.2
-2.4
32.2
-9.6 13.3
11.0
4.5
-24.0 18.2
8.3
1.2
-67.0 -35.2
-30.4
57.6
18.3 -10.8
61.0
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
3.9
53.5
4.6
10.8
9.4
-6.6
7.1
-7.9
3.3
128.4 640.4
168.0
12.2
40.6 -10.4
3.9
6.5
22.0 12.6
24.8
0.4
-7.4
91.6
-24.5
15.4
26.7 16.5
30.0
0.9
15.0 12.2
-16.3
1.9
-2.7
-8.9
-0.5
2.9
74.6 -15.7
-16.3
1.4
9.4
-2.5
-7.1
1.3
-1.0
9.2
3.5
2.6
36.8 19.0
20.8
2.4
23.4
-2.5
19.5
1.9
148.4 103.5
36.4
7.5
47.0 -12.6
0.3
3.2
-31.8 -14.0
-12.0
3.9
17.7
-1.8
-5.6
1.5
34.0 4071.2
-17.6
28.9
3.0
4.5
-4.2
5.3
17.8
5.1
5.9
13.6
16.1 43.7
14.7
5.8
5.4
30.0
8.8
2.9
27.3 118.8
39.1
2.1
13.7
-3.2
7.5
0.8
-43.4 -16.7
-39.4
40.7
27.6
9.7
-1.9
30.7
33.7 14.6
-0.9
0.5
-30.0 -32.7
-35.7
3.0
0.7
-12.0
-21.1
4.4
18.9
0.9
11.7
-0.1
Loss
Loss
PL
0.2
-38.7
0.9
-5.9
1.1
9.3
13.2
1.3
0.7
244.6 24.9
40.9
5.0
21.2 -23.9
20.5
-1.1
Loss
PL
Loss
4.2
5.2
20.8
13.6
1.9
78.1 -22.9
9.1
305.1 44.7 24.4
16.0
96.0
12.0 12.9
10.5
52.8
66.3 40.2
23.3
30.0
47.4 12.1
16.3
11.0
17.7 15.8
14.9
15.3
17.7 96.4
-11.2
20.7 205.5 32.0
62.0
14.8
3.3
-21.5
-25.2
12.8 609.1 1029.5
61.6
16.9
40.1 128.3
160.4
34.8 121.8 -1.8
2.9
472.9 -4.7
13.7
27.1
321.2 -11.8
1.2
1.1
45.5 -18.3 -2.1
71.5
2.3
8.0
-14.0
-0.4
20.5
-5.9
43.6
3.3
2.9
-22.0 29.6
24.2
0.7
-72.9 -47.8
-46.9
33.5
18.0 11.0
114.4
Company
Apollo Hospitals
Aurobindo Pharma
Biocon
Cipla
Divis Labs
Dr Agarwals Health.
Dr Reddy’ s Labs
ERIS Lifescience
Gland Pharma
Glenmark Pharma
Global Health
Granules India
GSK Pharma
IPCA Labs.
Laurus Labs
Lupin
Mankind Pharma
Max Healthcare
Piramal Pharma
Sun Pharma
Torrent Pharma
Zydus Lifesciences
Infrastructure
G R Infraproject
IRB Infra
KNR Constructions
Logistics
Adani Ports
Blue Dart Express
Concor
JSW Infra
Mahindra Logistics
TCI Express
Transport Corp.
VRL Logistics
Media
PVR Inox
Sun TV
Zee Entertainment
Metals
Coal India
Hindalco
Hindustan Zinc
JSPL
JSW Steel
Nalco
NMDC
SAIL
Tata Steel
Vedanta
Oil & Gas
Oil Ex OMCs
BPCL
Castrol India
GAIL
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat State Petronet
HPCL
Mar-25
55.9
83.8
44.2
67.3
25.9
4.6
85.1
7.1
14.2
32.6
9.3
12.0
9.7
22.5
17.2
56.7
30.8
23.0
27.5
128.2
29.6
65.3
49.4
19.4
21.5
8.5
173.3
84.9
14.2
22.8
12.8
15.7
3.1
11.8
8.1
43.4
12.5
9.1
21.8
3,080.7
378.2
648.9
90.9
131.8
448.2
52.7
70.0
293.2
562.2
404.6
8,016.7
3,860.3
1,111.8
14.2
356.9
41.0
2.0
1,094.9
June 2025
82
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sales (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
9.8
5.1
6.9
-1.5 0.6
-3.3
19.0 6.1
2.0
-2.9 12.5
11.1
-4.1 5.3
6.7
1.0
3.8
6.6
-10.7 0.7
-8.6
10.5 8.9
8.6
5.5 16.4
-11.9
22.2 1.1
21.2
-14.2 -0.2
7.9
46.5 104.6
59.4
48.8 119.0
215.3
36.5 105.5
-30.5
5.1
3.5
-1.2
-35.3 -94.5
-74.9
-12.5 -18.5
6.4
-22.2 4.2
-15.9
-29.4 -7.6
-66.8
-25.0 -37.1
-70.2
62.6 1.3
-11.5
-51.7 27.4
-55.7
16.7 -13.8
1.3
5.6 -16.4
2.3
16.9 -6.9
0.0
-1.8 -11.0
-3.2
-1.2 -14.2
-5.1
11.5 -21.2
2.7
15.8 -6.3
-0.3
19.2 -1.5
3.2
36.6 -15.2
-0.1
10.3 -8.6
2.8
5.0 -34.8
-4.3
-11.3 -14.8
3.5
-7.0 4.2
-6.7
12.6 -6.0
0.4
21.1 -32.7
2.2
2.3 -22.0
-2.1
19.4 -15.9
5.0
28.8 -9.5
0.5
16.7 -24.0
0.0
1.2 -28.1
-4.4
7.3 -7.7
-1.3
-4.1 -3.2
-13.7
-25.5 -9.0
-31.6
9.3
1.9
-1.0
17.5 -2.2
1.3
12.2 2.0
-0.4
6.7
0.6
-1.2
47.1 4.7
-3.1
2.6 -0.9
-7.0
6.1
1.2
-0.4
7.9 -2.0
-3.0
17.5 12.4
-3.8
9.9
1.1
-0.8
8.7
4.2
-0.6
25.2 5.9
0.0
5.3
0.8
-0.5
EBITDA (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
5.0
-4.8 36.7
20.1
135.7 27.0 48.1
109.6
3.8
-3.9 20.3
0.8
11.2
-52.1 -6.0
33.7
19.8
-15.0 -7.0
-0.7
190.1
9.2 -0.3
5.5
15.1
37.0 21.3
21.1
438.3
3.1
0.1
0.8
48.4
-0.7 9.9
-7.9
1.4
36.4 6.6
-36.1
4.2
-3.9 0.5
-28.3
9.8
29.7 144.5
100.6
1.1
-10.4 299.1
-60.8
1.1
LP 316.4
-44.0
12.2
16.6 -6.5
35.9
-0.6
Loss Loss
Loss
6.2
-21.6 -27.8
8.8
5.6
-10.7 1.2
-27.1
5.4
-34.6 -8.3
-30.1
0.4
113.3 224.9
-86.3
0.9
51.5 39.9
0.4
0.7
-55.2 41.9
-49.9
60.0
15.8 -20.8
2.9
5.1
81.0 -19.1
26.0
9.6
1.2 -21.5
-11.1
0.5
-2.6 -13.4
-2.2
1.8
-2.2 -10.6
-5.0
0.7
11.9 -13.0
6.9
2.0
15.5 -8.4
3.0
3.1
20.2 -2.3
7.5
4.0
34.8 -19.1
-0.7
2.0
24.3 -12.4
10.1
0.9
5.8 -23.3
6.1
0.1
-94.5 -92.5
-82.4
1.1
-6.9 34.4
-5.9
1.1
3.2 -20.9
-1.0
1.3
44.8 18.1
27.0
1.7
3.2 -29.4
0.3
15.4
29.1 -20.2
9.1
6.6
37.5 -21.6
11.0
0.7
69.4 -60.2
2.3
1.7
-5.3 -31.6
-8.6
0.8
3.0 -13.1
10.1
3.2
-11.4 5.0
-31.4
0.7
-65.5 7.9
-66.8
1.6
96.4 5.1
-1.9
0.5
29.5 36.0
10.0
0.4
-11.4 -22.8
-21.6
441.8
5.3 -1.2
-1.1
5.8
36.2 13.6
-0.8
3.0
-9.7 5.6
-3.0
65.0
6.5 -5.3
1.5
97.8
11.5 -3.6
-0.5
4.8
-5.4 -3.9
-13.8
16.0
3.9
0.2
-1.8
7.0
10.0 3.6
-0.5
5.8
28.6 8.7
3.0
169.2
-1.5 -0.3
-1.7
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
3.5
-8.8
22.2
18.2
72.6
50.2 231.1
499.9
2.5
-4.8
11.9
-2.3
3.6
-68.2 19.4
102.8
15.9 -21.6 30.3
16.1
64.5 -34.7 -21.7
-21.8
10.7
45.1 23.4
24.0
194.1
2.4
4.7
8.0
39.8
4.5
13.7
24.3
1.2
38.2
7.4
-15.9
2.5
19.8
4.5
-26.0
12.8
39.4 21.1
392.4
3.8
-20.8 139.2
-8.8
0.7
LP
158.1
-10.8
9.2
37.3
-2.1
177.2
0.9
19.0
LP
-21.6
4.3
-45.0 -30.0
0.4
2.7
-16.9
2.6
-24.8
0.3
-82.1 41.2
-93.2
0.6
47.0 110.7
-73.0
0.4
481.1 88.4
-35.5
0.5
-50.3 18.5
-39.3
23.8
17.1 -31.7
2.5
-0.2
Loss
Loss
Loss
5.5
-2.2 -23.9
-9.2
-0.2
Loss
PL
Loss
0.5
-27.9 -31.3
-26.0
0.4
7.0
-24.6
-4.8
0.0
PL
Loss
Loss
0.5
43.3 -17.0
43.1
1.9
36.4 -27.7
-9.6
1.0
10.1 -20.6
10.9
0.6
12.9 -27.9
16.4
-0.4
PL
PL
Loss
0.6
-8.4
70.3
-3.2
0.1
189.3 -53.7
-57.5
0.6
94.0 15.2
42.4
0.0
-5.7 -90.7
LP
8.7
13.0 -30.1
-5.0
3.5
41.3 -25.5
30.7
-0.1
Loss
PL
Loss
1.0
-12.7 -36.0
-10.9
0.0
96.5 -78.4
LP
2.2
60.5
3.7
-24.5
0.6
-37.6 30.8
-37.9
0.8
LP
-19.2
-33.4
0.4
38.3 33.5
8.4
0.3
76.1
9.7
22.0
310.8
6.7
0.6
0.9
2.9
22.6 24.6
-4.6
1.9
-3.1
42.3
8.8
43.1
8.1
-6.2
0.8
68.1
12.1
0.0
2.1
3.1
-9.3
-2.3
-19.2
11.3
2.5
3.9
-2.1
4.5
13.6
4.4
-1.3
4.0
25.5
6.1
1.3
122.9 -1.7
-1.2
-2.1
Company
Indraprastha Gas
IOC
Mahanagar Gas
MRPL
Oil India
ONGC
Petronet LNG
Reliance Inds.
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Brigade Enterpr.
DLF
Godrej Properties
Kolte Patil Dev.
Macrotech Developers
Mahindra Lifespace
Oberoi Realty
Phoenix Mills
Prestige Estates
SignatureGlobal
Sobha
Sunteck Realty
Retail
Aditya Birla Fashion
Avenue Supermarts
Barbeque Nation
Bata India
Campus Activewear
Devyani Intl.
Jubilant Foodworks
Kalyan Jewellers
Metro Brands
P N Gadgil Jewellers
Raymond Lifestyle
Relaxo Footwear
Sapphire Foods
Senco Gold
Shoppers Stop
Titan Company
Trent
V-Mart Retail
Vedant Fashions
Westlife Foodworld
Staffing
Quess Corp
SIS
Team Lease Serv.
Updater Services
Technology
Coforge
Cyient
HCL Technologies
Infosys
L&T Technology
LTIMindtree
MphasiS
Persistent Systems
TCS
Mar-25
39.5
1,949.7
18.6
246.0
55.2
349.8
123.2
2,613.9
178.6
5.4
14.6
31.3
21.2
7.2
42.2
0.1
11.5
10.2
15.3
5.2
12.4
2.1
572.4
36.0
148.7
2.9
7.9
4.1
12.1
15.9
61.8
6.4
15.9
14.9
7.0
7.1
13.8
10.2
149.2
41.1
7.8
3.7
6.0
106.5
36.6
34.3
28.6
7.1
1,979.2
34.1
19.1
302.5
409.3
29.8
97.7
37.1
32.4
644.8
June 2025
83
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Sales (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
133.8
4.0
0.7
0.0
225.0
1.3
0.8
-0.9
13.6
10.5 2.5
0.3
749.0 19.0 4.3
0.7
478.8 27.3 6.1
0.6
22.9
22.5 1.7
-0.6
77.3
7.4
2.4
1.9
59.9
5.2
3.8
0.3
110.1
3.8 -0.9
1.0
795.9
6.4
9.4
0.9
4.9
65.0 39.5
5.3
1.4
16.5 7.6
-7.0
31.9
15.7 30.8
-16.0
439.0
3.2
6.2
5.6
109.8 -0.6 8.5
1.3
37.9
72.6 27.4
5.9
171.0
7.9 11.1
-7.4
724.3 20.3 5.3
-1.0
55.1
15.6 1.4
-2.9
5.9
14.9 5.7
3.5
49.9
27.5 -28.1
0.3
3.1
11.7 -7.6
-3.1
11.1
7.4
9.0
2.4
58.3
63.8 7.9
-0.3
21.3
0.0 -12.9
-3.8
10.4
20.1 4.1
4.4
3.6
12.8 0.2
-2.6
24.3
27.3 -4.3
-0.7
6.9
13.0 2.3
-2.8
221.5 24.3 0.2
-2.5
12.2
1.1
5.7
-4.4
3.8
15.6 6.6
1.7
1.8
28.1 4.9
-15.7
19.1 -15.7 4.6
-8.9
16.2
14.5 3.1
1.9
44.1
44.8 10.4
4.3
155.7 10.6 42.8
0.8
EBITDA (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)
18.7
32.6 3.2
2.6
46.6
6.3
0.4
-3.8
2.1
4.7
2.7
-0.1
382.8 28.9 -0.7
-0.2
270.1 39.5 9.8
0.4
11.7
33.0 1.4
-0.5
43.2
6.2 -37.9
-4.9
11.2
6.2 -2.6
-8.3
46.6
7.5 -1.1
3.7
261.8
6.2
2.0
0.2
4.4
117.1 41.8
9.7
1.2
16.3 8.1
-6.1
12.0
3.1 31.8
-8.0
112.6
-0.7 -5.9
-3.5
92.2
0.9
8.2
1.3
6.9
94.0 38.8
38.0
32.5
39.2 -3.2
7.1
142.7 42.5 13.0
19.7
4.1
47.6 19.7
3.7
1.4
1.5
6.2
-0.9
4.3
56.0 -41.0
0.8
0.2
-18.7 -12.7
-14.2
2.3
19.4 13.1
0.2
0.7
-16.3 -55.6
-58.4
1.5
-0.9 -33.3
-28.1
1.1
16.8 6.1
-0.2
1.3
46.9 -5.8
-7.1
8.6
29.9 -10.9
-0.2
2.6
4.9 -10.6
-16.1
69.5
58.9 17.4
50.1
1.4
-20.0 -9.8
-18.4
2.0
19.0 10.8
5.0
0.3
87.3 2.7
-38.8
-0.9
Loss Loss
Loss
19.6
7.2
7.3
3.1
-9.6
Loss Loss
Loss
32.4
67.5 49.7
4.7
PAT (INR b)
Gr (%)
Var. over
Mar-25 YoY
QoQ
Exp. (%)
11.7
20.3 18.7
16.5
35.7
25.9
6.4
8.9
1.8
1.8
10.5
6.2
5.1
LP
-58.9
-29.5
52.2
76.9
-5.3
-11.2
3.8
70.8
3.7
8.1
16.1
1.7
-7.5
4.4
4.6
24.0 108.2
46.5
-71.7
Loss
Loss
Loss
113.9
6.8
10.7
-2.7
1.4
LP
15.5
109.3
1.1
17.8
8.6
0.2
2.9
-16.6 74.5
33.5
50.0
0.4
8.3
-10.4
42.9
0.5
11.3
-0.7
5.8
108.0 49.1
44.2
9.7
14.5
-5.4
-3.4
58.5
64.4 15.8
34.1
2.9
72.0 35.1
17.6
0.9
-0.7
2.1
-1.8
3.0
89.4 -40.7
7.6
0.1
-16.6 -11.8
-13.4
1.2
72.9 25.1
14.8
0.4
-77.7 -33.9
-78.5
0.7
23.9 -36.5
-33.7
1.0
37.9 22.1
3.7
1.8
80.4 48.9
70.7
5.2
25.5 -10.0
2.9
2.6
20.9 27.4
-8.6
30.7
62.3 25.9
130.6
0.7
-30.3 -12.3
-22.3
0.8
26.3 35.4
33.2
0.1
181.7 -14.0
-58.6
-0.2
Loss
Loss
Loss
5.3
-19.4 39.4
-5.2
-10.8
Loss
Loss
Loss
11.9 225.5 19.6
-15.4
Company
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
Zensar Tech
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Hexacom
Indus Towers
Tata Comm
Vodafone Idea
Utilities
ACME Solar
Indian Energy Exch.
JSW Energy
NTPC
Power Grid Corp.
Suzlon Energy
Tata Power
Others
APL Apollo Tubes
Cello World
Coromandel International
Dreamfolks Services
EPL
Eternal
Godrej Agrovet
Gravita India
Indiamart Inter.
Indian Hotels
Info Edge
Interglobe Aviation
Kajaria Ceramics
Lemon Tree Hotel
MTAR Tech
One 97 Comm.
SBI Cards
Swiggy
UPL
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
June 2025
84
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS
June 2025
85
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS
June 2025
86
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following
30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,
is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in
respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is
a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National
Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository
Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development
Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.
Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell
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market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of
interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the
analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in
some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware
that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment
banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and
Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL
or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research
activity
and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use
would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
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and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As
per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal
Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report
is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates
is only available to
professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation
of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer
or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state
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only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and
interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a
chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered
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securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
(“MOCMSPL”) (UEN 201129401Z), which is a holder of a capital markets services
license
and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.This report is distributed solely to persons who (a) qualify as “institutional investors” as
defined in section 4A(1)(c) of the Securities and Futures
Act of Singapore (“SFA”) or (b) are considered "accredited investors" as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Regulations
of Singapore read with section 4A(1)(a) of the SFA.
Accordingly,
if a recipient is neither an “institutional investor” nor an “accredited investor”, they must immediately discontinue any
use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL .
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of MOCMSPL. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by
MOCMSPL write to
grievances@motilaloswal.com.
Nainesh
Rajani
Email:
nainesh.rajani@motilaloswal.com
Contact: (+65) 8328 0276
.
Specific Disclosures
1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).
MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.
Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company
2. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report:No
3. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).
6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.
7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
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India Strategy | Review 4QFY25
8.
MOFSL may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies)
in the past 12 months.
9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.
10. MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
********************************************************************************************************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
-
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the
public appearance.
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
-
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though
there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
-
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
-
be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
-
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
-
Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider
demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not
considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research
analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is
based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from
publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made
as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not
constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers
simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or
in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be
used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this
report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This
may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at
an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures,
options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied,
is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is
provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The
Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and
the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform
or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is
already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or
licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose
possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be
liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not
to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses,
costs, damages,
expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;
www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of
Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person
Contact No.
Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date
022 40548000 / 022 67490600
query@motilaloswal.com
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay
022 40548082
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Mr. Ajay Menon
022 40548083
am@motilaloswal.com
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent
–
CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs
and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited
(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
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