Motilal Oswal Financial Services

CONTENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS



Global markets outperform India

during the month



Decade in review: Nasdaq

dominates, Nifty Midcap-100

shines, and China underperforms



India’s real GDP growth at a

four-quarter high in 4QFY25

DOMESTIC MARKETS



Broad-based recovery in market

capitalization across the NSE-500

sectors



Small-caps shine; Capital Goods

and Media outperform



Government capex hits an

all-time high in Mar’25 and

4QFY25



MOFSL Review – 4QFY25: Beyond

the benchmark – a surprise surge!

FLOWS AND VOLUMES



FII inflows gain momentum; DII

inflows hit the third-highest mark

ever



Monthly average cash volumes rise,

while F&O volumes decline MoM



Capital Goods sector’s weight

rises, while the Private Banks

sector sees the sharpest decline



Forex reserves touch the

second-highest level after four

successive months of gains

KEY RESEARCH REPORTS



Initiating Coverage on:



Jindal Stainless Ltd.| Set for

sustainable growth



Radico Khaitan| Crafted for

connoisseurs!!



Hexaware Technologies| Stronger,

better, faster

MULTI-YEAR HIGHS/LOWS



Defense & Railway sectors

reach record market caps led by

strong re-rating



India-US 10Y yield spread

narrows to an all-time low of

1.9%



Large-cap valuations above

average; broader markets still

expensive

VALUATIONS



Valuations above historical

averages across the board



Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E

trades above its LTA



EY/BY remains flat MoM



India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio

continues to inch up from its

Mar’25 lows

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

A view from the EAGLE’S EYE!

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Broad-based recovery in market capitalization across the NSE-500 sectors



Most of the NSE-500 sectors experienced a sharp decline between Sep’24 and Mar’25, with 17 sectors falling by more than 15%.



Conversely, around 14 NSE-500 sectors recorded over 15% growth, following their recovery from the Mar’25 lows. Technology remained flat.

Market cap declined between the Sep’24 highs and Mar’25 lows

Sep'24 to Mar'25 change (%)

Textiles

Banks-Private

Healthcare

Cement

Misc

Telecom

Technology

NBFC

Metals

Banks-PSU

NSE-500

Consumer Durables

Chemicals & Fertilizers

Automobiles

Capital Goods

Consumer

Insurance

Oil & Gas

Retail

Real Estate

Infrastructure

Utilities

Logistics

Media

-35

-30

-31

-28

-23

-24

-25

-19

-20

-16

-17

-13

-14

-15

-8

-9

Infrastructure

Capital Goods

Chemicals & Fertilizers

Insurance

Logistics

Misc

Oil & Gas

Telecom

Media

Banks-PSU

Real Estate

NBFC

Utilities

Banks-Private

NSE-500

Textiles

Automobiles

Retail

Metals

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Consumer Durables

Technology

Market cap rose between the Mar’25 lows and May’25

Mar'25 to May'25 change (%)

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS

Defense & Railway sectors reach record market caps led by strong re-rating



The Defense and Railway sectors saw significant gains over the past two months, following a dip in Mar’25.



The Defense sector’s market cap hit an all-time high in May’25, recording a CAGR of 55% between FY19 and May’25, with aggregate PAT

reporting a 23% CAGR. The Railway sector’s market capitalization rebounded from its lows, recording a CAGR of 46% over the same period, while

its aggregate PAT grew at a CAGR of 15%.



Strong order book growth and a recovery in Mid- and Small-cap sentiments have fueled the rerating trends in these sectors.

Aggregate market cap of the Defense sector

Defence market cap (INR b)

Aggregate PAT for the Defense sector

Defence PAT (INR b)

Defense sector P/E (x)

P/E (x)

766

588 1,070 1,750 2,709 6,209 8,802 11,612

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 May-

Aggregate market cap of the Railway sector

Railway market cap (INR b)

FY19

FY20

FY21

105

FY22

124

FY23

173

FY24

206

FY25

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

Aggregate PAT for the Railway sector

Railways PAT (INR b)

Railway sector P/E (x)

P/E (x)

456

499 1,181 1,570 1,614 4,657 4,200 4,679

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 May-

FY19

FY20

FY21

105

FY22

117

FY23

131

FY24

128

FY25

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

Note: Aggregate market cap and PAT are as available during the year, while P/E is presented on a like-for-like basis for listed companies

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS FII inflows gain momentum; DII inflows hit the third-highest mark ever



FII flows remained positive for the third consecutive month, at USD 1.7b, while DIIs invested USD7.9b— their 22

consecutive month of inflows

and the third-highest monthly tally ever. This led to a record 14-month high institutional flow.



In CY25YTD, DIIs have invested ~USD33b, while FIIs have sold ~USD11b worth of Indian equities.



During CY21-CY25YTD, DII inflows have totaled ~USD163b, whereas net FII outflows stood at ~USD3b.

Monthly institutional flows (USD b)

5.0

6.7

7.0

4.1

1.7

2.3

4.0

0.5

-1.1

-3.0

FII(USD b)

3.1 3.3

1.4

5.9

1.3

0.2

1.3 1.7

3.0 2.4 3.4

3.2 3.1

DII (USD b)

12.8

10.0

7.4

3.8

5.3

4.0

4.3

3.3

7.9

6.8

1.7 1.6

5.3

6.7

3.4 2.8

5.8

-2.3-2.7

-3.1

-2.2

-5.4

-10.9

-8.4

0.5

-0.4

-0.3

Cumulative FII-DII flows over the past 22 months (USD b): DII flows continued to soar to new highs, while FII flows remained muted

120

-40

Cumulative FII flows (USD b)

Cumulative DII Flows (USD b)

108.0

-5.2

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Large-cap valuations above average; broader markets still expensive



The Nifty-50’s one-year forward P/E stood at 21.2x, about 3% above its long-period average (LPA) of 20.7x.



In contrast, the Nifty Midcap-100 and Nifty Smallcap-100 indices are trading at 29.3x and 25.8x, representing premiums of ~30% and ~60% to

their respective LPAs.

One-year forward P/E trends across the Nifty-50, Nifty Midcap-100 and Nifty Smallcap-100 indices (x)

Nifty-50 P/E (x)

22.8

21.4

19.3

19.2

21.6

22.3

18.7

21.6

Average 20.7x

19.0

19.9

21.8

21.2

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

May-25

Nifty Midcap-100 P/E (x)

31.1

26.2

22.3

19.7

17.1

13.0

25.4

18.6

16.0

29.3

Nifty Smallcap-100 PE (x)

25.8

22.2

Average 22.5x

22.9

24.8

Average 16.1x

20.5

17.7

16.2

13.4

13.5

15.5

17.2

16.9

18.6

Note: The 12-month average of one-year fwd P/E is considered for the year.

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS



Valuations stretched across most sectors in May’25

Valuations have been trading below the 10-year average for Automobiles, while they have remained above the 10-year average for Private

Banks, Consumer, Capital Goods, Healthcare, Technology, Metals and Oil & Gas.

Auto P/E (x)

Pvt. Banks P/E (x)

Average 41.7x

Consumer P/E (x)

Average 27.1x

Average 20.7x

Capital Goods P/E (x)

Healthcare P/E (x)

Average 26.9x

Technology P/E (x)

Average 20.9x

Average 29.5x

Pvt. Banks P/B (x)

Average 2.5x

Metals P/B (x)

Average 1.6x

O&G P/B (x)

Average 1.5x

Note: The 12-month average of one-year fwd P/E and P/B has been considered for the year across MOFSL Universe sectors.

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS

India-US 10Y yield spread narrows to an all-time low of 1.9%



India’s 10-year government bond yield declined 10bp MoM to 6.3% in Apr’25, while the US yield rose 20bp to 4.4%. As a result, the yield spread

narrowed by 30bp MoM to an all-time low of 1.9%.

India-US 10Y bond yield (%)

12.0

India 10-year yield

India fiscal tightening,

strong economic growth led by

the global book, and Fed

Fed cuts rates to zero

raising rates

after the GFC

GFC

US 10-year yield

9.0

Fed raises rates

Fed easing,

US-Sino trade

war, and

Covid-19

pandemic

Fed tightening,

geopolitical

uncertainties,

sharp rise in bond

yields

Fed starts easing

rates, geopolitical

uncertainty

sustains, bond

yields moderate

from the highs

6.0

6.3

2.2

1.9

6.9

3.0

6.0

3.9

4.4

0.0

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS India’s real GDP growth at a four-quarter high in 4QFY25



Real GDP growth came in higher than expected at 7.4% in

4QFY25

(highest in four quarters) vs. 7.3%/6.4% in 4QFY24/3QFY25 (above market



consensus of 6.8% and our expectation of 6.7%). Nominal GDP grew 10.8% YoY in 4QFY25 (highest in four quarters), implying 9.8% growth in FY25

vs. 12% in FY24.

The acceleration in GDP growth was led by robust growth in real fixed investments and a higher contribution of net exports to real GDP growth.

Real fixed investments grew at a six-quarter high rate of 9.4% in 4QFY25 vs. a growth of 6.0%/5.2% in 4QFY24/3QFY25.

On the contrary, private consumption grew at a five-quarter low pace of 6%, and government consumption contracted 1.8% in 4QFY25, which was

the worst in 17 quarters.

For

FY25,

real GDP growth stood at a four-year low of 6.5% (in line with our expectations) vs. 9.2% in FY24. The annual growth number is slightly

higher than the market consensus of 6.3%.

…led by higher contribution of net exports and robust growth in fixed investments

Consumption*

(pp)

1.7

2.1

2.3

4.6

-2.5

0.4

3.0

4.0

-1.7

2.8

1.7

5.5

3.7

2.8

3.0

-2.1

Real GDP growth at a four-quarter high of 7.4% YoY in 4QFY25…

32.0

24.0

16.0

8.0

0.0

10.3

6.4

4QFY22

2QFY23

4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

10.8

7.4

4QFY25

Real GDP growth (% YoY)

Nominal GDP growth (% YoY)

Investments

Net exports

Discrepancy

3.3

4.1

-0.7

-3.7

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Services and agricultural sector growth remained strong, while industry growth

decelerated

-5

Services

Agriculture

Industry

(% YoY)

7.3

6.5

5.4

Domestic savings at 33.1% of GDP in 4QFY25 vs. 33.2% in 4QFY24

Implied savings

(% of GDP)

34.8

1.5

33.1

2.3

34.8

2.6

31.6

2.7

34.1

0.8

32.6

2.4

35.2

4.1

30.4

2.6

33.6

0.5

CAD

Total investments

33.3

4QFY22

2QFY23

4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25

30.8

32.1

28.9

33.2

30.2

31.2

27.8

33.1

4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Government capex hits an all-time high in Mar’25 and 4QFY25



Government capex hit an all-time high of INR2.4t in Mar’25, up 68% YoY and accounting for about 23% of the central government’s FY25 capex.

Additionally, quarterly capex reached an all-time high of INR3.7t in 4QFY25, up 33% YoY, representing 35% of the FY25 capex.



The trend suggests that the worst of the monthly capex slowdown is behind us. In FY26, the government is targeting capex of INR11.2t, a 6.5%

YoY growth.

Annual capex trends

Central Govt. capex (INR t)

28.6

13.1

4.8

2.0

2.5

2.9

2.6

-8.3

3.1

3.4

4.3

5.9

7.4

9.5

10.5

17.0

9.3

10.9

YoY growth (%)

39.1

26.8

24.9

28.3

Quarterly capex trends

71.9

45.7

26.3

51.9

13.4

57.0

42.4

-9.4

24.5

Central Govt. capex (INR t)

59.1

26.4

24.4

10.1

YoY growth (%)

47.7

33.4

10.3

-35.0

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Decoding consumption slowdown and its potential for revival



The Indian economy is currently experiencing a challenging phase of weak consumption. The primary reasons for this slowdown in consumption

are:



Slowdown in Real PFCE:

Real private final consumption expenditure at a 3-year low of 5.3% in FY24 and its share in real GDP reduced to a

five-year low at 56.1% of GDP. Over the last four years (FY21-FY24), real PFCE growth has averaged 4.9% annually, substantially weaker than

the pre-pandemic decade’s average of 6.8%.



High inflation vs. rural wage growth:

The consumer price index for rural laborers (CPI-RL) has grown at a faster pace than nominal rural

wages during the past three years (FY22-FY24), leading to stagnant real rural wages.



Rise in household debt:

India’s household debt increased sharply to a peak of 36.9% of GDP in FY20 from 30.9% in FY15, averaging 34.7% of

GDP during FY18-FY19 vs. an average of 31.6% during FY15-FY17. Household debt grew at an average rate of 16.7% in FY18-FY19, much

faster than the average income growth of 11%.



Moderation in disposable income:

The post-pandemic revival in consumption spending growth to an average of 9.6% during FY22-FY23 was

also led by a sharp rise in household debt growth of 17.5% in FY23 (or 39.8% of GDP), faster than the aggregate disposable income growth of

14.3%. Higher accumulation of debt during FY22-FY24 (which grew 18.1% in FY24) led to a moderation in disposable income growth to 11.9%

in FY24 (real consumer spending growth collapsed to 5.6% in FY24) from 18.8% in FY22.



When is consumption expected to recover?



Lower inflation can help in boosting real PFCE from its FY24 lows.



Excess money in the hands of consumers: GoI providing some boost to consumption in its FY26 budget with income tax cuts



Interest rate cuts



Strong monsoon can help in improving income levels going forward.

Click here detailed report

Real PFCE growth decelerated to a three-year low of 5.6% in FY24 (vs. 7.5% in FY23)…

14.0

9.0

4.0

-1.0

4.9%

-6.0

Real consumer spending (% YoY)

Pre-pandemic decade's average

…and its share in real GDP reduced to a five-year low of 56.1% in FY24 (from 58.1% in

FY23)

Real private consumption share in GDP (%)

Long term average

11.7

6.8

6.2%

5.6

Pre-pandemic

decade, 56.1%

57.5

56.1

Pre-GFC, 58.3%

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS MOFSL Review – 4QFY25: Beyond the benchmark – a surprise surge!



The 4QFY25 corporate earnings concluded on a strong note, showcasing widespread outperformance across aggregates. Metals, OMCs, PSU Banks,

Automobiles, Healthcare, Technology, and Capital Goods fueled this healthy performance. The MOFSL Universe earnings grew 10% YoY (vs. our est. of 2% YoY)

in 4QFY25.



Large-cap and mid-cap earnings in the MOFSL universe grew 10% and 19%, respectively, while small-cap earnings declined 16% in 4QFY25.

Report link

Sector-wise 4QFY25 performance of the MOFSL Universe companies

Sector

(no of companies)

Automobiles (26)

Capital Goods (12)

Cement (11)

Chemicals (12)

Consumer (20)

Consumer Durables (5)

EMS (7)

Financials (61)

Banks-Private (12)

Banks-PSU (6)

Insurance (7)

NBFC - Lending (22)

NBFC - Non Lending (14)

Healthcare (25)

Infrastructure (3)

Logistics (8)

Media (3)

Metals (10)

Oil & Gas (14)

Ex OMCs (11)

Real Estate (13)

Retail (20)

Staffing (4)

Technology (12)

Telecom (5)

Utilities (7)

Others (19)

MOFSL Universe (297)

MOFSL Ex Financials (236)

MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil (273)

MOFSL Ex OMCs (294)

Nifty (50)

Sales

Mar-25 (INR b)

3,363

1,148

691

173

882

234

171

4,692

925

899

2,331

468

913

173

3,081

8,017

3,860

179

572

107

1,979

749

796

724

28,738

24,046

17,641

24,581

14,694

Chg. % YoY

9.9

10.4

21.3

3.5

1.2

17.7

12.4

-8

13.7

5.5

7.4

16.7

-4

6.7

6.4

5.9

6.4

8.0

7.6

7.0

Var. over Exp. (%) Mar-25 (INR b)

-0.4

-5.2

2.1

2.7

-0.1

3.7

3.3

-0.6

0.9

-1.6

-1.8

3.7

3.0

1.6

-3.6

-2.0

2.6

3.4

7.1

8.0

-11.9

1.3

-13.7

-1.2

0.7

0.9

-1.0

1.8

2.3

-0.7

1.1

1.3

460

148

117

203

1,844

676

672

383

217

601

996

724

442

383

262

143

6,082

4,239

4,486

5,811

3,771

EBITDA

Chg. % YoY

13.5

13.9

34.1

5.2

-5

9.3

19.4

17.6

18.7

-3

20.4

1.4

-1

15.8

-11

5.3

6.2

8.9

10.6

8.8

8.9

6.6

Var. over Exp. (%) Mar-25 (INR b)

0.8

3.8

7.1

4.0

0.8

10.2

11.2

2.7

-1.2

6.1

4.6

3.9

3.1

0.6

5.5

-7.0

-0.8

6.0

16.3

3.2

-7.9

2.9

-31.4

-1.1

-0.2

0.2

19.7

4.4

5.2

1.9

2.5

1.0

281

100

142

1,289

410

412

212

224

137

305

473

321

311

114

3,425

2,136

2,647

3,273

2,046

PAT

Chg. % YoY

14.2

-3

18.1

-1

36.9

6.1

-6

8.7

4.1

16.7

27.6

44.7

-5

-11.8

17.1

6.7

6.8

9.6

11.9

9.5

9.4

3.2

Var. over Exp. (%)

6.3

7.6

12.7

4.6

-1.3

13.4

-5.3

4.3

-2.9

4.0

21.1

4.7

7.9

5.5

8.8

-1.9

20.5

16.0

27.1

1.1

24.3

2.5

-24.5

0.9

-29.5

-2.7

34.1

8.0

10.4

4.4

5.0

0.7

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS

FY25 MOFSL Review: Earnings growth remain modest (cont..)



The FY25 MOFSL earnings concluded on a modest note. The Sales/EBITDA/PAT of MOFSL Universe grew by 6%/5%/4% YoY.



PSBs, Metals, Telecom, Insurance, and Technology led earnings growth, while O&G, Cement, and Consumer sectors weighed on FY earnings.

Sector-wise FY25 performance of the MOFSL Universe companies

Sales (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

Sector

FY25

FY26E

FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

Automobiles

12,742 13,587 14,881

Capital Goods

3,897

4,469

5,150

Cement

2,345

2,685

2,996

Chemicals

664

739

832

Consumer

3,530

3,855

4,226

Consumer Durables

770

878

1,008

EMS

587

785

1,001

Financials

16,928 18,590 20,985

Banks-Private

3,656

4,030

4,688

Banks-PSU

3,549

3,770

4,232

Insurance

7,707

8,460

9,297

NBFC - Lending

1,736

2,013

2,398

NBFC - Non Lending

280

317

371

Healthcare

3,513

3,891

4,316

Infrastructure

173

198

231

-9

Logistics

645

758

869

Media

180

196

211

-5

Metals

11,476 12,719 13,943

Oil & Gas

35,932 32,370 33,619

-10

Excl. OMCs

19,763 18,420 19,375

-7

Real Estate

598

752

867

Retail

2,363

2,778

3,228

Staffing

420

472

537

Technology

7,770

8,096

8,659

Telecom

2,782

3,171

3,523

Utilities

3,243

3,704

3,974

Others

2,606

3,082

3,687

MOFSL Universe

1,13,162 1,17,775 1,28,742

MOFSL Ex Financials

96,234 99,184 1,07,757

MOFSL Ex Oil & Metals

65,754 72,686 81,180

MOFSL Univ Ex OMCs

96,993 1,03,824 1,14,498

Nifty50 Universe

59,867 62,787 68,634

EBIDTA (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

1,682 1,748 1,957

467

545

635

323

441

545

-15

119

144

175

827

912

1,009

110

7,557 8,377 9,778

2,727 3,021 3,576

2,513 2,661 3,020

746

870

1,016

1,418 1,650 1,959

152

175

208

843

940

1,054

-2

245

295

340

-13

2,134 2,534 2,931

3,808 4,163 4,495

-17

3,029 3,325 3,622

-4

164

230

259

255

306

359

1,743 1,880 2,035

1,406 1,604 1,797

1,162 1,331 1,457

450

543

683

23,393 26,250 29,820

15,836 17,873 20,041

17,451 19,553 22,394 11

22,614 25,413 28,947

15,159 16,883 19,099

PAT (INRb)

FY25 FY26E FY27E

975

1,011 1,143

297

353

433

170

236

305

107

580

651

725

4,893 5,410 6,319

1,774 1,943 2,318

1,597 1,680 1,898

571

628

718

828

1,016 1,216

124

143

169

521

596

679

145

181

213

1,014 1,264 1,548

1,641 1,853 2,031

1,330 1,499 1,666

139

190

212

105

139

170

1,213 1,297 1,413

-29

230

432

526

575

159

228

320

12,439 14,242 16,609

7,546 8,832 10,290

9,784 11,125 13,030

12,128 13,888 16,243

7,944 8,920 10,290

Growth YoY (%)

FY25 FY26E FY27E

-27

-5

-2

-3

-32

-15

Loss

225

-2

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS

FY25 earnings growth normalizes to revenue trend



In FY23, sales growth outpaced PAT growth due to elevated commodity inflation. In contrast, FY24 saw PAT growth exceed sales growth,

influenced by base effects. In FY25, earnings growth normalized, closely tracking revenue growth.

MOFSL Universe Sales growth YoY (%)

MOFSL Universe sales growth YoY (%)

31.5

18.9

23.5

11.5

1.3

-3.6

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

4.4

5.6

2.9

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

5.9

5.4

MOFSL Universe EBIDTA growth YoY (%)

19.0

19.7

21.4

FY25

MOFSL Universe PAT growth YoY (%)

38.3

29.6

30.0

MOFSL Universe EBIDTA Margin Ex OMCs and Financials (%)

EBIDTA Margin Ex OMC & Fin (%)

20.7

20.0

18.8

18.0

17.3

18.8

18.1

10.1

9.8

3.8

FY19

-5.1

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS PSBs and Metals drove earnings growth in FY25, while O&G remained a drag



In FY25, EMS, Real Estate, NBFCs (Non-Lending), Consumer Durables, and Staffing emerged as the top five growth sectors. In contrast, Cement,

O&G, Chemicals, Media, and Consumer were among the key laggards.



Interestingly, PSBs, Metals, Telecom, Insurance, and Technology were the top five contributors to overall profit growth during the year.

Sector-wise FY25 performance (%) – Telecom, Cement, and Oil & Gas drag

FY25 PAT growth YoY (%)

-1

-3

-5

-27

-32

Loss

Note: Telecom sector losses declined significantly from INR126b in FY24 to INR29b in FY25

Sector-wise contribution to FY25 earnings growth (%) – PSU Banks take the lion’s share

FY25 contribution to PAT growth (%)

-1

-12

-114

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

KEY EXHIBITS Nifty EPS witnesses its first double-digit earnings downgrade in five years



FY25 Nifty earnings experienced a significant decline, falling well below expectations set at the start of the year.



Nifty EPS for FY25 stood at INR1,013, compared to the Apr’24 estimate of INR1,132.

Nifty EPS: Estimates vs Actual performance

Nifty EPS estimates as of the Start of the Year

Year-end actual EPS

+2%

-7%

+0.1%

+9%

-22%

726

606

870

1,132

978

-11%

1,001

1,013

810

727

474

499

543

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Macro, Markets, and More…

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Global markets outperform India during the month

MoM performance of global equity indices in USD terms (%)

MoM change (%)

CY25YTD performance of global equity indices in USD terms (%)

CY25YTD change (%)

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Decade in review: Nasdaq dominates, Nifty Midcap-100 shines, and China underperforms

Performance of the Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap-100, and Nifty Smallcap-100 indices vs. the US Nasdaq, US S&P500, and China

400

Nasdaq

Nifty Midcap-100

US S&P 500

350

Nifty Smallcap-100

Nifty-50

300

Japan

China

(indices rebased to 100; in USD)

377

336

281

243

225

250

200

150

162

100

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Small-caps shine; Capital Goods and Media outperform

Sectoral performance MoM (%): Small-caps outperform large-caps and mid-caps during the month

MoM change (%)

-2

Sectoral performance in CY25YTD (%): Private banks and PSBs have outperformed, while most other sectors have ended with either moderate gains or losses

-5

CY25YTD change (%)

-3

-6

-8

-10

-14

Note: (*) represents BSE Capital goods index.

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

About 58% of the Nifty constituents end higher in May’25



Among Nifty constituents, 29 stocks closed higher in May’25 with 24 outperforming the benchmark. Bharat Electronics, Adani Ports, and TATA

Steel posted notable gains, whereas Asian Paints, Grasim Industries, and Sun Pharma were the key laggards.



About 34 Nifty constituents trade higher in CY25YTD. Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics, and SBI Life Ins. are the top gainers, whereas Infosys,

Wipro, and Trent are the key laggards.

Best and worst Nifty performers on a MoM basis (%)

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

Best and worst Nifty performers in CY25YTD (%)

-9

-10

-11

-14

-15

-17

-21

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

About 73% of the BSE-200 constituents end higher in May’25



In May’25, 146 BSE-200 stocks closed higher. Suzlon Energy, Star Health Insurance and Solar Industries gained the most during the month.



About 97 BSE-200 constituents trade higher in CY25YTD. Solar Industries, Mazagon Dock, and GSK Pharma are the top gainers.

Top gainers within BSE-200 on a MoM basis (%)*

Top gainers within BSE-200 CY25YTD (%)*

*The list excludes Nifty constituents.

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

About 27% of the BSE-200 constituents end lower in May’25



In May’25, 54 companies closed lower. Patanjali Foods, Torrent Power, and Dixon Tech were among the key laggards.



About 103 of the BSE-200 companies trade lower in CY25YTD. Oracle Finance, Voltas, and Central Bank are the key laggards in CY25YTD.

Key laggards among the BSE-200 constituents on a MoM basis (%)*

-11

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

-12

-11

Key laggards among the BSE-200 constituents in CY25YTD (%)*

-12

-14 -14 -13 -13 -12 -12

-18 -18 -17 -16 -16 -16 -15 -15 -14 -14

-20 -19 -19 -19 -18

-25 -25 -24 -24 -23

-34 -29 -27

*The list excludes Nifty constituents.

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Capital Goods sector’s weight rises, while the Private Banks sector sees the sharpest decline



In May’25, the weights of the Private Banks, Consumer, Healthcare, and Utilities sectors declined 40bp, 30bp, 20bp, and 20bp MoM,

respectively, while the Capital Goods sector saw a significant increase of 50bp MoM among the Nifty-50 constituents.

Weightage in the Nifty (%)

Nifty Sectoral weights (%)

Sector

Automobiles

Banks – Private

Banks – Public

NBFC + Insurance

Capital Goods

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Metals

Oil and Gas

Reliance

Retail

Telecom

Technology

Utilities

Miscellaneous

Nifty

Dec’08

2.5

5.0

5.4

2.3

7.7

1.7

6.5

2.6

4.8

24.5

10.6

0.0

11.6

9.0

13.3

3.3

100

Dec’12

8.8

16.9

4.7

7.9

5.9

4.2

12.3

5.0

3.8

12.3

7.4

0.0

2.0

11.4

4.5

0.5

100

Dec’20

5.4

24.7

1.8

12.3

2.6

2.2

10.4

3.6

2.0

12.5

10.7

1.1

2.0

16.3

2.1

1.0

100

Dec’21

5.0

21.9

2.3

11.4

3.0

2.4

9.4

3.4

2.9

12.3

10.8

1.4

2.1

19.1

2.1

1.2

100

Dec’22

5.3

24.2

2.9

10.6

3.1

1.8

10.3

3.8

2.9

12.1

11.0

1.4

2.5

14.0

2.5

2.6

100

Dec’23

6.5

28.2

2.6

4.5

4.4

2.1

10.8

4.0

3.0

10.5

9.2

1.6

2.7

13.6

3.6

1.9

100

Mar’25

6.9

28.4

2.8

6.1

4.9

2.2

7.8

3.8

3.1

9.0

8.1

2.3

4.4

11.9

3.7

2.7

100

Apr’25

7.0

29.0

2.8

6.0

4.6

2.2

8.0

3.9

2.8

9.5

8.6

2.3

4.5

11.1

3.6

2.8

100

May’25

7.1

28.6

2.8

6.2

5.1

2.0

7.7

3.7

2.9

9.4

8.6

2.4

4.4

11.3

3.4

3.0

100

Note: The merger of HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd. resulted in a shift in weightage from NBFCs to private banks in CY23. Britannia and BPCL were replaced with Jio

Financials and Eternal in Mar’25

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Monthly average cash volumes rise, while F&O volumes decline MoM



Monthly average cash volumes rose 12% MoM in May’25 to INR1,186b (albeit, down 28% from the Jun’24 high). Non-institutional participation,

which accounted for 50% of the total cash volumes, was up 400bp MoM.



Monthly average F&O volumes declined 5% MoM to INR348t (down 35% from the Sep’24 high).

Monthly average cash volumes (INR b)

1750

1350

950

550

150

Monthly Avg. Cash Volume (INR b)

Non Institution % to Cash Volume (RHS)

Monthly average F&O volumes (INR t)

540

360

180

Monthly Avg F&O Volume (INR t)

Cash % to Total Volumes

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.0

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Forex reserves touch the second-highest level after four consecutive months of gains



India’s forex reserves rose 1% MoM to USD693b in May’25 (up 10% from the Jan’25 low of USD 631b), nearing the all-time high of USD705b

reached in Sep’24.



On the currency front, INR weakened 1.3% MoM to 85.6 against the USD.

Forex reserves (USD b)

Forex Reserves (USD b) (RHS)

INR had its best run

during the CY03-07 global

bull run when GDP

growth and corporate

earnings growth were

high and the twin deficits

– CAD and FD – were

among the lowest in two

decades

USDINR

Low inflation has characterized

the period post-CY15. INR has

been relatively less volatile,

despite several global

headwinds. Forex reverses are

surging

Eurozone crisis, taper tantrum, and

devaluation of RMB – the taper tantrum

episode in CY13 drove the INR down

sharply to 68 from 55 in just four

months. This was a period of high

inflation and INR depreciation

Pandemic impact and geopolitical

tensions led to global volatility,

high liquidity, followed by

quantitative tightening, and

sharp currency depreciation, but

a resilient economy

800

600

Pre-GFC peak

in FX reserves

400

200

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Key reports from MOFSL’s research desk in May’25

Initiating Coverage| Jindal Stainless Ltd.| Set for sustainable growth!!

Report link>>



Jindal Stainless Ltd (JSL) is India’s leading stainless steel manufacturer with 3mt capacity (plans to expand to 4.2mt by FY27).

The company operates a wide network of 16 manufacturing and processing facilities. Its product portfolio includes stainless

steel slabs, blooms, coils, plates, sheets, precision strips, wire rods, rebar, blade steel, and coin blanks. JSL is aggressively

expanding its capacity and enhancing backward integration to drive sustainable and profitable growth.



Robust demand, capacity expansion plans, and a focus on value-added products, we expect JSL to strengthen its market

dominance and achieve a 14% CAGR of revenue growth driven by volume growth of 10% CAGR coupled with NSR

improvement of 4% CAGR over FY25-27. This is expected to drive an EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 17%/21% over FY25-27. With

strong cash flow generation and steady capex outflow, we expect JSL to generate strong cash flow during FY26-27E, which

can further be utilized for deleveraging.



We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and a TP of INR770 (premised on 10x FY27E EV/EBITDA)

Initiating Coverage | Radico Khaitan| Crafted for connoisseurs!!



Radico Khaitan is one of the oldest and largest manufacturers of Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) with net revenue of

INR48b and volume of 31m cases in FY25 (P&A was ~15mn cases). Radico is known for its brands: 8PM, Magic Moments,

Royal Ranthambore, Rampur Single Malt, After Dark, Morpheus, Contessa and Jaisalmer.



Radico’s valuation multiple has seen a notable re-rating over the last five years, with consistent outperformance of its P&A

portfolio. Radico’s P&A portfolio clocks ~15m cases compared to the P&A industry size of ~200m cases and the total IMFL

industry size of ~400 million cases. The company is further gearing up to expand its portfolio by launching products in the

premium and luxury range where industry cases are high. We believe this portfolio expansion will help Radico expand its

target user base and improve its trade confidence on execution, which increases the acceptance level for new products. We

estimate 16%/22%/30% revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR during FY25-28E. We value Radico at 60x P/E on Jun’27E EPS.

Report link>>

Initiating Coverage | Hexaware Technologies| Stronger, better, faster?



Hexaware (HEXT) is one of the leading mid-tier IT services providers, and is re-entering the Indian stock market following

a four-year hiatus. HEXT has delivered consistent growth with a 14% CAGR in USD revenue over CY20-24, supported by

robust ecosystem partnerships, a focused go-to-market (GTM) strategy, and diversified service lines across Design &

Build, Secure & Run, Data & AI, and BPO.



With a focus on high-value, scalable enterprise clients, the company has consistently expanded its revenue base. Its

"Land, Ramp, and Expand" strategy has been instrumental in driving growth. Its mid-tier and smaller clients, growing at a

strong 13-17% CAGR, have more than made up for the pressure, keeping overall growth on track.



With an EPS CAGR of 20.8% over CY24-CY26E, higher than the Tier-I/Tier-II average of 10.0%/13.5%, HEXT is in the top

quadrant of performance within the industry. Given its strong execution, diversified vertical exposure and improving

margin profile, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. We value HEXT at 32x Mar’27E EPS with a TP of INR950.

Report link>>

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Key observations

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Nifty’s 12-month trailing P/E rises MoM



The 12-month trailing P/E for Nifty-50 trades at 24x, 5% above its LTA.



At 3.5x, the 12-month trailing P/B is 13% above its historical average of 3.1x.

12-month trailing Nifty P/E (x)

24.0

10 Year Avg: 22.8x

12-month trailing Nifty P/B (x)

4.4

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.0

10 Year Avg: 3.1x

3.5

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Valuations: Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E trades above its LTA



Nifty’s 12-month forward P/E trades at 21.2x, 3% above its LTA of 20.7 but down 12% from the Sep’24 high.



At 3.2x, the 12-month forward P/B trades at a 12% premium to its LTA of 2.8x.

12-month forward Nifty P/E (x)

21.2

10 Year Avg: 20.7x

12-month forward Nifty P/B (x)

3.8

3.3

2.8

2.3

1.8

3.2

10 Year Avg: 2.8x

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

EY/BY remains flat MoM



India’s 10Y bond yield stood at 6.3% (flat MoM). Consequently, the Earnings yield to Bond yield (EY/BY) traded near its LTA on both trailing and

forward basis.

Trailing Earnings Yield/G-Sec Yield (x)

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

Earnings yield (12-month trailing)/G-Sec yield

15 Year Avg: 0.67%

0.66

Forward Earnings Yield/G-Sec Yield (x)

1.70

1.40

1.10

0.80

0.50

Earnings yield (12-month forward)/G-Sec yield

15 Year Avg: 0.73%

0.75

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

NSE indices–Valuations above historical averages across the board



Valuations of Mid-and Small-caps trade at a significant premium to their averages, while valuations for large caps trade at 3% above the LPA.



Among the key sectoral indices, Capital Goods, and Banks were the top performers in the past one year.



Nifty-50 has been trading slightly above its LPA, whereas most of the sectoral indices (excluding Banks) have been trading at a significant premium

to their LPA.

NSE indices: Valuation snapshot

Indices

May'25 closing

YoY change (%)

EPS (12m fwd)

P/E (12m fwd)

P/E (10 yr average)

P/B (12m fwd)

P/B (10 yr average)

RoE (%)

RoA (%)

Nifty-50

24,751

1,135

21.2

20.7

3.2

2.8

15.2

3.3

Nifty Midcap-

Nifty

100

Smallcap-100

57,420

1,789

29.3

22.5

4.7

2.7

14.1

1.6

17,883

634

25.8

16.1

3.5

2.0

12.5

5.5

Nifty-500

22,802

953

22.3

19.6

3.5

2.8

14.3

2.8

Auto

23,326

996

19.6

3.7

2.9

16.5

7.6

BANK

55,750

3,302

15.9

2.1

12.4

1.3

FMCG

55,283

1,410

33.7

9.4

8.5

26.4

22.9

Capital Goods

37,322

1,460

25.6

6.5

3.5

24.7

18.1

9,193

-5

571

21.1

2.1

5.1

12.5

7.8

Metal

35,879

-11

2,279

11.1

2.2

1.3

14.4

7.5

Energy

25,344

1,156

11.6

3.3

1.4

14.5

3.0

Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL; as of 31

May’25| LPA: Long Period Average i.e. 10-year average

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

India’s market cap-to-GDP ratio continues to inch up from its Mar’25 lows



India's market cap-to-GDP ratio is projected at 117% in FY26, down from a peak of 146% in September 2024 and below the Feb’25 low of 120%.



The market cap-to-GDP ratio for broader markets continues to trade at a significant premium to the long-term average.

Market cap-to-GDP ratio (%) – Overall

Nominal GDP growth in FY25/FY26E: 9.8%/10.8%

GFC: Peak of 149% in Dec’07

105

Average of 87% for the period

Lowest since

the GFC

103

113

129

126

122

Market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)-Top 100 Large-caps

Market cap-to-GDP ratio (%)-101 to 250th Mid-caps

Market cap-to-GDP ratio (%) - Small-caps, beyond 250th

Average of 62% for 15 years

74 78

Average of 14% for 15 years

78 74

14 13

23 24 24

Average of 12% for 15 years

50 55

57 57

17 18 16

10 8

23 24

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Top ideas

MCap

Company

Preferred large-cap stocks

Reliance Inds.

Bharti Airtel

ICICI Bank

Larsen & Toubro

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Sun Pharma

Mahindra & Mahindra

Titan Company

Trent

Tech Mahindra

Preferred mid-cap/small-cap stocks

Indian Hotels

HDFC AMC

BSE

Suzlon Energy

Dixon Tech.

SRF

JSW Infra

Coforge

Page Industries

Kaynes Tech

L T Foods

12.8

11.9

12.7

11.4

10.3

9.9

7.0

6.7

6.0

4.5

1.8

770

4,784

2,674

14,691

2,859

291

8,551

46,399

5,977

440

11.8

115.2

32.4

1.1

117.2

46.1

7.0

126.2

652.9

45.8

17.4

14.7

131.3

48.2

1.7

168.7

70.9

7.5

231.6

749.1

83.5

22.5

17.5

149.0

57.1

2.4

241.6

98.7

9.4

290.5

877.2

132.4

28.0

21.6

13.7

32.7

48.3

43.6

46.4

16.2

51.7

15.9

70.0

26.8

65.1

41.5

82.4

66.3

125.4

62.1

41.7

67.8

71.1

130.5

25.2

52.5

36.4

55.5

42.1

87.1

40.3

38.6

36.9

61.9

71.6

19.6

44.1

32.1

46.8

30.1

60.8

29.0

30.8

29.4

52.9

45.2

15.7

9.8

12.6

24.5

16.0

29.4

6.7

6.2

8.8

36.8

13.5

4.0

8.3

11.6

18.3

11.6

22.3

6.0

5.6

8.0

30.3

11.3

3.4

7.1

10.6

14.1

8.4

16.4

5.1

4.8

7.1

25.1

9.1

2.9

16.3

32.4

29.8

29.4

30.0

11.4

16.3

13.9

51.8

11.0

16.8

17.1

33.1

33.0

31.9

29.1

15.7

15.4

18.0

48.9

17.2

18.8

17.3

34.5

30.1

32.2

31.1

19.0

16.7

20.6

47.5

22.3

20.0

224.7

132.1

119.3

59.0

48.2

47.1

43.3

37.0

23.4

18.0

1,421

1,857

1,446

3,676

2,076

1,678

2,978

3,554

5,642

1,574

51.5

30.3

66.8

105.9

110.4

47.1

98.7

42.3

43.2

47.9

59.5

47.6

72.9

127.3

108.9

56.8

121.5

53.5

55.5

60.9

66.5

62.9

85.5

156.7

129.1

64.5

137.8

63.3

68.3

77.0

13.7

44.1

13.2

21.6

8.2

17.0

18.1

22.3

25.8

26.7

27.6

61.3

21.7

34.7

18.8

35.6

30.2

84.1

130.7

32.8

23.9

39.0

19.8

28.9

19.1

29.5

24.5

66.4

101.7

25.9

21.4

29.5

16.9

23.5

16.1

26.0

21.6

56.2

82.6

20.4

4.6

9.1

3.5

5.2

2.7

5.6

5.8

27.2

34.3

5.1

2.1

7.9

3.2

4.6

2.4

4.9

21.1

25.2

5.0

1.9

6.0

2.7

4.1

2.1

4.2

16.7

19.0

4.8

8.5

18.0

15.8

12.8

16.6

20.8

35.8

32.2

15.7

9.2

22.5

17.1

16.9

12.6

17.6

21.7

35.9

30.6

19.5

9.4

25.3

17.5

18.4

13.3

17.4

20.8

33.3

28.1

23.8

(USDb)

CMP

(INR)

FY25

EPS (INR)

FY26E

FY27E

EPS CAGR (%)

FY25-27

FY25

PE (x)

FY26E

FY27E

FY25

PB (x)

FY26E

FY27E

FY25

ROE (%)

FY26E

FY27E

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Quant Research & India Strategy Gallery

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

NOTES

CHART BOOK | June 2025

June 2020

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent

with the investment rating legend.

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•

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Contact: (+65) 8328 0276

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June 2020