June 2025
India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 82,515
Corporate profit-to-GDP ratio
remains flat YoY, up 2.2x in five years
Nifty-50: 25,141
Corporate profit-to-GDP: Standing tall at a 17-year high!
Defying all odds:
As the world grapples with geopolitical challenges, sluggish growth,
high inflation, and elevated interest rates, India’s macroeconomic indicators present a
contrasting narrative. The country is experiencing strong GDP growth, a stable currency,
and moderating inflation and interest rates, alongside robust corporate earnings. For
the first time in many years, corporate earnings are tracking GDP growth, resulting in
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio remaining flat YoY at a 17-year high of 4.7% in FY25.
This stable ratio was primarily driven by a healthy 10.5% YoY profit growth in FY25,
building on a strong earnings base of 30% YoY in FY24, which was broadly aligned with
the year’s revenue growth. This performance was bolstered by a robust GDP growth of
9.8% YoY in FY25, following a high base of 12% YoY growth in FY24.
Analyzing India's corporate profit-to-GDP ratio:
We take a closer look at the
corporate profit-to-GDP ratio achieved by India’s listed corporate sector. Our
analysis examines corporate earnings as a percentage of GDP in greater detail, using
the Nifty-500 as a proxy for corporate earnings, as this index represents ~90% of
India’s market capitalization.
4.7
4.2
4.0
4.7
3.3
2.1
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Profits have grown at a faster pace
in the last five years
Nifty 500 PAT (INRb)
India’s corporate profit-to-GDP ratio in FY25: Under the lens
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
GDP has recorded a double-digit
growth in the past five years
GDP (INRb)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
In 2025, the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for the Nifty-500 Universe remained at
4.7%, marking a 17-year high. Notably, for listed India Inc., the ratio stood at
5.1%, at a 14-year high.
The sustained profit-to-GDP ratio for the Nifty-500 was
positively influenced by sectors such as Telecom (which shifted from being a
negative contributor for the past seven years to a positive contributor in FY25),
PSU Banks (with a 0.07% increase in the ratio), Healthcare (a 0.04% rise), Consumer
(a 0.04% increase), Metals (a 0.03% rise), and Infrastructure (a 0.2% increase). In
contrast, sectors that experienced a decline in the ratio included Oil & Gas (a 0.28%
decline), Automobiles (a dip of 0.03%), Cement (a decline of 0.02%), Utilities (a dip
of 0.02%), Private Banks (a decline of 0.01%), and Retail (a dip of 0.01%).
The top-5 sectors contributed 71% to the aforesaid ratio,
with BFSI (1.84% of
the GDP), Oil & Gas (0.51%), Technology (0.40%), Metals (0.34%), and
Automobiles (0.32%) being the key contributors. In contrast, e-commerce was
the only sector that contributed adversely to the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio.
The
corporate profits for the Nifty-500
universe experienced double-digit growth,
rising 10.5% YoY in FY25. This growth was notable given the high base of +30.5%
in FY24 and clocking a 30.3% CAGR over the past five years. This achievement
occurred in a challenging year characterized by weak consumption, a slowdown in
government spending during 1HFY25 amid elections, and volatile exports resulting
from heightened global uncertainties.
Meanwhile,
nominal GDP
growth remained strong in 2HFY25 and exceeded
market expectations. Nominal GDP expanded 9.8% YoY in FY25, although this
was slower than corporate profit growth during the year. It recorded a 10.5%
CAGR over the past five years.
Research Analyst: Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
| Deven Mistry
(Deven@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Abhishek Saraf
(Abhishek.Saraf@motilaloswal.com) |
Aanshul Agarawal
(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)
(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Profit pool of mid-caps grew at a
faster pace over Phase 3 (INR b)
Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
0.1 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.5
0.1 0.520.65
0.61
0.75 0.81
1.1
Mid- and small-caps add to the ratio as large-caps’ weight slips
2.1
3.6
1.7 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.55 3.51
According to SEBI's categorization, large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks accounted
for 3.51%, 0.81%, and 0.42% of the total Nifty-500’s corporate profit-to-GDP
ratio, respectively.
The Nifty-500 ratio was driven higher by mid- and small-caps, while large-caps
offset these gains. The mid- and small-caps ratio grew to 0.81% and 0.42%,
respectively, in FY25 (from 0.75% and 0.41% in FY24). Large-caps witnessed a
dip to 3.51%, down marginally from the 16-year high of 3.55% recorded in FY24.
The mid- and small-cap shares have experienced a nearly continuous increase in
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio since the lows of 2020, rising 6.2x and 1.6x,
respectively. This marks a reversal from the period between 2008 and 2020,
during which mid-caps faced a significant decline, while small-caps exhibited
range-bound performance. Large-cap stocks have also posted substantial gains
since the 2020 lows, more than doubling in value, in contrast to their earlier
trend of sustained weakness from the highs of 2008 through 2020.
We analyze India’s corporate profit-to-GDP distribution across three categories of
ownership,
i.e., 1) Private Corporate, 2) PSU Corporate, and 3) MNCs.
On an
ownership basis,
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for
Private
companies
within the Nifty-500 reached an all-time high of 2.8% in FY25, up from 2.6% in
FY24. The ratio for
PSUs
dipped marginally to 1.6% in FY25 from 1.8% in FY24. For
MNCs,
notably, the ratio hit an all-time high of 0.31% in FY25 (0.29% in FY24).
PSUs recorded the sharpest increase in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio since
the lows of 2020, fueled by a broad-based earnings recovery, particularly among
PSUs Banks, Insurance, and Oil & Gas sectors. The ratio surged approximately
threefold to reach 1.6% in 2025 from 0.5% in 2020. In comparison, Private and
MNC companies within the Nifty-500 universe also recorded notable gains, with
their ratios surging 2.2x to 2.8% and 1.2x to 0.3% in 2025 (from 1.3% and 0.3% in
2020), respectively.
Profit pool of PSU corporates grew
at a faster pace over Phase 3 (INR b)
Private
PSU
MNC
Private and MNC companies bolster the ratio; PSUs weigh it down
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
2.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.6
1.8
2.8
0.8
1.3 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8
Analyzing two decades of corporate profit-to-GDP trends
We examined the peaks and troughs in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio over the
past two decades, breaking them down into distinct phases of expansion and
contraction.
We segregate the 2003 to 2025 period into three phases: 1) 2003-08, 2) 2008-
20, and 3) 2020-25.
During Phase 1 (2003-08),
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio almost doubled to
5.2% from 2.7%, with profits of Nifty-500 compounding at a solid 30% CAGR.
During Phase 2 (2008-20),
the downturn in domestic corporate earnings led to a
compression in the Nifty-500 profit-to-GDP ratio to 2.1% from 5.2%.
Despite the pandemic-led slowdown and subdued economic recovery during
Phase 3 (2020–25),
corporate profits witnessed a strong resurgence from the lows.
This recovery drove the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio to a 17-year high of 4.7% in
2025 (above the long-period average of 3.7%). Over this period, Nifty-500
companies delivered an impressive 30.3% profit CAGR, with a YoY growth of 10.5%
in FY25.
June 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Corporate profit-to-GDP ratio poised for further expansion
India’s nominal GDP grew 10.8% YoY in 4QFY25, marking the highest growth in
four quarters. This resulted in an overall growth of 9.8% for FY25. This healthy
performance reflects the strengthening domestic macroeconomic conditions,
which are likely to sustain and support corporate earnings going forward.
Although corporate profit growth moderated in FY25 due to a high base set in
FY24 and other factors mentioned earlier, we expect a gradual recovery going
ahead. This rebound is likely to be driven by increased government spending
compared to FY25, a favorable monsoon season, and coordinated policy
measures by the government and the RBI, including tax incentives and an
accommodative monetary policy that should help stimulate consumer spending.
Consequently, corporate earnings are projected to outpace GDP growth, with
Nifty earnings forecasted to grow 12% and 15% YoY in FY26E and FY27E,
respectively. This growth is anticipated alongside a nominal GDP growth rate of
10.8% YoY in FY26, which will further enhance the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio
in the coming years.
Exhibit 1: Sectoral corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for Nifty-500 (%) – BFSI, Consumer, Healthcare, and Infrastructure at all-time highs
Sector
BFSI
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Oil & Gas
Technology
Metals
Automobiles
Consumer
Utilities
Healthcare
Capital Goods
Misc
Logistics
Real Estate
Chemicals
Cement
Telecom
Infrastructure
Retail
Consumer Durables
Media
Textiles
E-Commerce
Nifty-500
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2003 2008 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
0.66 0.85 0.46 0.97 1.14 1.54 1.76 1.84
0.12 0.19 0.12 0.38 0.44 0.49 0.61 0.61
0.39 0.44 0.01 0.19 0.30 0.41 0.50 0.57
0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.19 0.19 0.20
0.12 0.18 0.28 0.34 0.36 0.45 0.46 0.46
1.07 1.19 0.36 0.66 0.77 0.51 0.78 0.51
0.10 0.33 0.41 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.40 0.40
0.11 0.90 0.17 0.36 0.68 0.36 0.30 0.34
0.09 0.23 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.20 0.35 0.32
0.17 0.20 0.23 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.23
0.25 0.29 0.13 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.23
0.07 0.15 0.13 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.21
0.09 0.27 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19
0.05 0.12 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.08
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.19 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.06
0.03 0.07 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.06
0.02 0.18 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.08 0.06
-0.01
0.15
-0.28 -0.19 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06
0.06
0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03
0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
0.00 0.01 0.01
-0.02
0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
-0.04 -0.01
0.03
-0.02 -0.01 0.00
2.7
5.2
2.1
3.3
4.2
4.0
4.7
4.7
2003-2008
1.3
1.5
1.1
2.5
1.4
1.1
3.2
8.6
2.6
1.2
1.2
2.1
3.2
2.6
1.7
23.9
2.7
8.5
-24.6
3.4
2.7
3.7
1.7
1.6
68.3
1.9
Change (x)
2008-2020
2020-2025
0.5
4.0
0.7
4.9
0.0
56.8
0.9
4.4
1.6
1.7
0.3
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.2
2.0
0.4
3.4
1.2
1.0
0.4
1.8
0.9
1.6
0.3
2.0
0.3
1.8
1.5
3.0
0.1
6.4
1.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
-1.9
-0.2
1.0
2.1
3.3
1.6
1.1
1.3
0.6
0.2
1.5
0.1
-34.5
0.1
0.4
2.3
2024-2025
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.8
-1.0
1.7
0.8
1.5
0.3
3.0
0.4
1.0
Exhibit data are sourced from Capitaline, the RBI, companies, and MOFSL database based on the current Nifty-500 constituents.
June 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Insightful trends
Exhibit 2: Nifty-500 – the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio remains flat YoY at 4.7% in FY25
PHASE 1
5.2
4.6
4.7
4.1
4.6
4.1
3.9
3.8
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.6
4.7
4.0
4.7
3.7
3.3
3.3
2.7
Average: 3.7%
2.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Exhibit 3: Contrast between GDP growth and corporate earnings growth
GDP (INR b)
Nifty 500 PAT (INR b)
4.2% CAGR
Exhibit 4: Contributors to the change in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (FY24–25)
0.12
0.07
0.04
0.04
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02
0.02
0.03
0.28
4.71
4.74
June 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Corporate profit-to-GDP scales a 17-year high in 2025
In 2025, the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for the Nifty-500 Universe remained at
4.7%, marking a 17-year high. Notably, for listed India Inc., the ratio stood at
5.1%, at a 14-year high.
The sustained profit-to-GDP ratio for the Nifty-500 was
positively influenced by sectors such as Telecom (which shifted from being a
negative contributor for the past seven years to a positive contributor in FY25),
PSU Banks (with a 0.07% increase in the ratio), Healthcare (a 0.04% rise), Consumer
(a 0.04% increase), Metals (a 0.03% rise), and Infrastructure (a 0.2% increase). In
contrast, sectors that experienced a decline in the ratio included Oil & Gas (a 0.28%
decline), Automobiles (a dip of 0.03%), Cement (a decline of 0.02%), Utilities (a dip
of 0.02%), Private Banks (a decline of 0.01%), and Retail (a dip of 0.01%).
The top-5 sectors contributed 71% to the aforesaid ratio,
with BFSI (1.84% of
the GDP), Oil & Gas (0.51%), Technology (0.40%), Metals (0.34%), and
Automobiles (0.32%) being the key contributors. In contrast, e-commerce was
the only sector that contributed adversely to the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio.
The
corporate profits for the Nifty-500
universe experienced double-digit growth,
rising 10.5% YoY in FY25. This growth was notable given the high base of +30.5%
in FY24 and clocking a 30.3% CAGR over the past five years. This achievement
occurred in a challenging year characterized by weak consumption, a slowdown in
government spending during 1HFY25 amid elections, and volatile exports resulting
from heightened global uncertainties.
Meanwhile,
nominal GDP
growth remained strong in 2HFY25 and exceeded
market expectations. Nominal GDP expanded 9.8% YoY in FY25, although this
was slower than corporate profit growth during the year. It recorded a 10.5%
CAGR over the past five years.
India's corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for the listed universe further expanded to
5.1% in FY25 from 5.0% in FY24. Notably, the ratio for both the listed and
unlisted universe also expanded materially to 7.3% in FY24 from 6.3% in FY23,
mainly led by a spike in corporate profits of listed companies.
Exhibit 5: India Inc. (listed/unlisted) – the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio trend
6.3
7.3 5.1
3.1
4.8
5.5 6.4 7.3
7.9
5.6 6.6 6.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.0 3.5 2.3 2.7
1.9
4.6
6.5
Listed universe profit to GDP (%)
Un-listed universe profit to GDP (%)
Total profit to GDP (%)
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.2
1.3 0.9
2.3
2.0 1.9
0.2
5.3 5.5
0.6 0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.3 0.5
4.0 3.7
1.3
0.5
2.5
3.2
4.2 4.3
5.3
6.2
4.4
4.6
0.2
1.7
2.9 2.4
2.8
2.0 2.2
3.3
5.1
4.5
4.4 5.0
Note: Corporate profit compiled from Capitaline for available listed and unlisted companies; FY25 earnings from unlisted companies are yet to
be available.
June 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 6: Nifty-500 – the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio remains flat YoY
PHASE 1
5.2
4.6
4.7
4.1
4.6
4.1
3.9
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.2
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.6
3.3
4.7
4.0
4.7
3.7
3.3
2.7
Average: 3.7%
2.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Exhibit 7: Contributors to the change in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (FY24–25)
0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.07 0.04
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.12
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03
0.28
4.71
4.74
Exhibit 8: Nifty-500 profits expand 10.5% YoY and clock a 30.3% five-year CAGR in 2025
Sector
Automobiles
BFSI
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Textiles
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
PAT (INR b)
2024
2025
1,059
1,061
5,311
6,086
1,852
2,010
1,501
1,885
561
660
1,397
1,531
518
618
227
191
148
196
588
764
34
57
-19
-9
510
700
64
122
202
233
20
6
914
1,117
2,364
1,685
131
210
129
112
1,219
1,326
-178
187
1
4
738
754
205
255
14,185
15,675
Change
(x)
YoY (%)
1.0
0
1.1
15
1.1
9
1.3
26
1.2
18
1.1
10
1.2
19
0.8
-16
1.3
32
1.3
30
1.7
68
Loss
Loss
1.4
37
1.9
91
1.2
15
0.3
-69
1.2
22
0.7
-29
1.6
60
0.9
-13
1.1
9
LP
LP
3.3
225
1.0
2
1.2
25
1.1
11
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2024
2025
0.4
0.3
1.8
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
4.7
4.7
The ratio has
improved for 15 of
24 sectors
June 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 9: Stocks with a positive contribution to change
Company
Bharti Airtel
ITC
Vedanta
Punjab Natl.Bank
Tata Steel
Vodafone Idea
Raymond
IRB Infra.Devl.
Aster DM Health.
Reliance Power
Hindalco Inds.
St Bk of India
Adani Enterp.
Life Insurance
Indus Towers
Sector
Telecom
Consumer
Metals
Banks - Public
Metals
Telecom
Real Estate
Infrastructure
Healthcare
Utilities
Metals
Banks - Public
Others
Insurance
Telecom
Contributors to change (FY24-25)
pp
%
0.08
245.0
0.04
118.7
0.03
99.9
0.03
82.0
0.03
80.1
0.02
66.8
0.02
56.4
0.02
56.2
0.02
50.6
0.02
50.4
0.01
46.9
0.01
37.9
0.01
34.2
0.01
32.9
0.01
31.9
Exhibit 10: Stocks with a negative contribution to change
Contributors to change (FY24-25)
Company
Sector
pp
%
IOCL
Oil & Gas
-0.10
-311.2
ONGC
Oil & Gas
-0.05
-172.1
BPCL
Oil & Gas
-0.05
-156.0
HPCL
Oil & Gas
-0.03
-104.8
Adani Power
Utilities
-0.03
-95.9
IndusInd Bank
Banks - Private
-0.02
-70.3
Reliance Industr Oil & Gas
-0.02
-65.5
Tata Motors
Automobiles
-0.02
-64.1
JSW Steel
Metals
-0.02
-59.6
Coal India
Metals
-0.02
-55.1
MRPL
Oil & Gas
-0.01
-37.6
Jindal Steel
Metals
-0.01
-35.8
Sammaan Capital NBFCs
-0.01
-30.3
CPCL
Oil & Gas
-0.01
-27.0
Grasim Inds
Cement
-0.01
-23.9
As we can infer from Exhibit 11, Nifty-500 profits have remained range-bound at
INR4-5t over FY14-20, while they surged to ~INR16t in 2025.
Notably, the corporate profit CAGR of 30.3% was much higher than the GDP
CAGR of 10.5% over 2020-25.
Exhibit 11: Contrast between GDP growth and corporate earnings growth
GDP (INRb)
Nifty 500 PAT (INRb)
4.2% CAGR
The revenue growth of the Nifty-500 index remained muted at 2% YoY in FY25,
mainly due to a correction in commodity prices and a slowdown in revenue
growth across consumer-oriented sectors.
However, over FY20–25, revenue growth registered a CAGR of 11.1%, primarily
driven by the BFSI, Automobiles, and Global Commodities sectors.
June 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 12: Trend in Nifty-500 sales (INR b)
Sales (INR b)
Corporate margins have continued to experience volatility since the onset of the
pandemic. After reaching multi-year highs of 16.9% in FY22, operating margins
saw a marginal contraction of 20bp YoY to 16.4% in FY25 (down 50bp from the
2022 high), while profit margins expanded 10bp YoY to 8.4% in FY25.
The improvement in margins in 2025 was driven by strong performances in the
Telecom, Healthcare, and Metals sectors, while a moderation was observed in
the Oil & Gas, Cement, Retail, and Media sectors.
Exhibit 13: Nifty-500 – EBITDA margin, ex-Financials (%)
EBIDTA Margin (%)
Exhibit 14: Nifty-500 – PAT margin, ex-Financials (%)
PAT Margin (%)
June 2025
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Mid- and small-caps add to the ratio as large-caps’ weight slips
According to SEBI's categorization, large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks accounted
for 3.51%, 0.81%, and 0.42% of the total Nifty-500’s corporate profit-to-GDP
ratio, respectively.
The Nifty-500 ratio was driven higher by mid- and small-caps, while large-caps
offset these gains. The mid- and small-caps ratio grew to 0.81% and 0.42%,
respectively, in FY25 (from 0.75% and 0.41% in FY24). Large-caps witnessed a
dip to 3.51%, down marginally from the 16-year high of 3.55% recorded in FY24.
The mid- and small-cap shares have experienced a nearly continuous increase in
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio since the lows of 2020, rising 6.2x and 1.6x,
respectively. This marks a reversal from the period between 2008 and 2020,
during which mid-caps faced a significant decline, while small-caps exhibited
range-bound performance. Large-cap stocks have also posted substantial gains
since the 2020 lows, more than doubling in value, in contrast to their earlier
trend of sustained weakness from the highs of 2008 through 2020.
Exhibit 15: Large-caps’ earnings expand 9% YoY in 2025
PAT (INR b)
2024
2025
846
854
1,529
1,720
976
1,202
452
537
843
950
328
368
162
139
17
21
482
635
13
15
-14
-16
264
305
16
13
163
184
639
836
1,973
1,453
43
71
75
76
1,058
1,147
135
435
652
608
32
71
10,685 11,622
Large-caps
Change (%)
2025
1.0
12.5
23.1
18.8
12.7
12.2
-14.2
20.1
31.9
15.9
Loss
15.5
-18.6
12.7
30.8
-26.4
66.8
1.0
8.3
222.1
-6.8
119.1
8.8
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.05
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.51
0.52
0.06
0.32
0.36
0.03
0.15
0.16
0.15
0.28
0.29
0.08
0.11
0.11
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.16
0.16
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.05
0.06
0.13
0.21
0.25
0.31
0.66
0.44
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.37
0.35
0.35
-0.14
0.04
0.13
0.12
0.22
0.18
0.01
0.01
0.02
1.69
3.55
3.51
Large-caps ratio
saw a marginal
decline to 3.51%
from the 16-year
high of 3.55%
recorded in FY24
Sector
Automobiles
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
2020
92
473
126
65
311
158
123
11
327
7
-64
109
8
35
262
617
1
29
753
-289
232
11
3,399
June 2025
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 16: Mid-caps’ earnings expand 19% YoY in 2025
PAT (INR b)
2024
126
244
525
97
317
95
63
53
53
12
-14
145
6
35
213
298
51
14
95
-298
82
36
2,250
Mid-caps
Change (%)
2025
-1.8
-16.4
30.2
12.9
15.0
48.5
-20.2
60.8
36.2
131.7
Loss
42.9
969.7
16.4
2.1
-30.3
-0.9
36.5
12.8
Loss
14.8
16.9
18.6
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.03
0.04
0.04
-0.13
0.08
0.06
-0.05
0.17
0.21
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.08
0.11
0.11
-0.01
0.03
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.10
0.06
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
-0.12
-0.10
-0.07
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.13
0.75
0.81
Mid-caps ratio grew
to 0.81%, marking a
13-year high
Sector
Automobiles
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
2020
67
-254
-106
24
156
-12
36
74
111
8
-29
90
7
11
61
129
17
6
47
-245
71
-7
264
2025
124
204
683
110
364
141
51
86
72
28
-6
208
65
41
217
208
51
19
107
-241
94
42
2,668
Exhibit 17: Small-caps’ earnings expand 11% in 2025
PAT (INR b)
2020
2024
31
87
31
79
2
11
94
237
39
95
7
1
130
77
26
53
11
9
5
9
70
101
20
42
0
4
19
62
-29
93
2
37
6
40
20
66
-37
-15
-50
3
80
137
516
1,250
Small-caps
Change (%)
2025
-4.2
9.2
15.9
-8.9
14.8
-2.7
15.5
7.5
56.4
51.8
86.2
5.1
106.0
1.5
-73.9
136.0
-56.7
10.4
Loss
1455.0
4.5
10.8
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.08
0.07
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
-0.01
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.26
0.41
0.42
Small-caps ratio
grew marginally in
FY25
Sector
Automobiles
Banks - Private
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
2025
83
86
13
216
109
1
89
57
14
14
187
44
8
63
24
88
17
72
-7
51
143
1,385
June 2025
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Private & MNC companies bolster the ratio; PSUs weigh it down
We analyze India’s corporate profit-to-GDP distribution across three categories of
ownership,
i.e., 1) Private Corporate, 2) PSU Corporate, and 3) MNCs.
On an
ownership basis,
the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio for
Private
companies
within the Nifty-500 reached an all-time high of 2.8% in FY25, up from 2.6% in
FY24. The ratio for
PSUs
dipped marginally to 1.6% in FY25 from 1.8% in FY24. For
MNCs,
notably, the ratio hit an all-time high of 0.31% in FY25 (0.29% in FY24).
PSUs recorded the sharpest increase in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio since
the lows of 2020, fueled by a broad-based earnings recovery, particularly among
PSUs Banks, Insurance, and Oil & Gas sectors. The ratio surged approximately
threefold to reach 1.6% in 2025 from 0.5% in 2020. In comparison, Private and
MNC companies within the Nifty-500 universe also recorded notable gains, with
their ratios surging 2.2x to 2.8% and 1.2x to 0.3% in 2025 (from 1.3% and 0.3% in
2020), respectively.
Exhibit 18: Corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (%) – by business group
Private
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
PSU
0.2
1.4
0.2
1.2
MNC
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.4
0.3
1.4
0.3
1.8
0.3
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.6
2.1
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.9
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Exhibit 19: Profit pool of PSU corporates has grown at a faster pace over FY20-25
Private
50
62
74
92
PSU
MNC
123 142
141
177 217
227
248 211
271
320
391
415 458 516 468 575 704 863 1,036
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
June 2025
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
PSU profits surge 5x while that of Private surged 3.6x over Phase 3
The Indian PSUs have made a successful comeback fueled by a sharp 5x jump in
profits, reaching INR5.3t from INR1t during FY20-25. More than 36% of these
incremental profits originated from PSU banks alone.
PSU corporate’s profit-to-GDP ratio decreased to 0.5% in 2020 from 2.2% in
2008, given the significant value migration from public to private sectors such as
Banking, Telecom, and Airlines. This occurred even as PSU-heavy sectors, such as
Oil & Gas and Utilities, underperformed in terms of profit growth compared to the
underlying GDP growth. However, the sectors recovered to 1.8% in 2024 and then
moderated to 1.6% in 2025.
The private corporate sector's profit-to-GDP ratio improved to 2.8% in 2008 from a
meager 0.8% in 2003. However, the ratio contracted to 1.3% in 2020 before
rebounding to an all-time high of 2.8% in 2025. The corporate profit of Nifty-500
companies jumped 3.6x in the last five years.
Exhibit 20: Private companies’ earnings within Nifty-500 rise 17% YoY in 2025
PAT (INR b)
2020
2024
92
816
389
1,776
38
55
341
848
105
295
165
227
180
117
196
194
22
32
-87
-19
246
472
21
35
35
172
17
20
121
440
398
703
17
131
44
132
788
1,170
-574
-174
22
1
-32
306
44
180
2,589
7,929
Private
Change (%)
2025
-0.1
7.7
24.5
8.8
20.2
-15.8
39.7
17.9
68.4
Loss
38.7
178.1
16.4
-69.4
43.8
0.0
59.9
-13.4
8.8
LP
225.2
-3.8
24.6
17.3
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.05
0.27
0.25
0.19
0.59
0.58
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.17
0.28
0.28
0.05
0.10
0.11
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.09
0.04
0.05
0.10
0.06
0.07
0.01
0.01
0.02
-0.04
-0.01
0.00
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.06
0.06
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.20
0.23
0.21
0.01
0.04
0.06
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.39
0.39
0.39
-0.29
-0.06
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.10
0.09
0.02
0.06
0.07
1.29
2.63
2.81
Private players’
corporate profit-to-
GDP ratio improves
YoY
Sector
Automobiles
Banks - Private
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Textiles
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
2025
816
1,913
68
923
355
191
164
228
54
-9
654
96
200
6
634
703
209
114
1,273
186
4
295
224
9,302
June 2025
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 21: PSU companies’ profits decline 1% YoY for Nifty-500
PAT (INR b)
2020
2024
2025
20
1,501
1,885
54
506
592
209
509
571
55
163
194
17
9
9
13
29
25
9
24
26
221
474
483
320
1,661
982
3
-3
1
286
431
459
7
13
13
1,073
5,392
5,337
PSU
Change (%)
2025
25.6
17.0
12.4
19.0
1.4
-12.2
9.8
2.0
-40.9
LP
6.4
-0.9
-1.0
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.01
0.50
0.57
0.03
0.17
0.18
0.10
0.17
0.17
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.11
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.55
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.53
1.79
1.61
PSU companies’
ratio declines YoY
for Nifty-500
Sector
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Chemicals
Infrastructure
Logistics
Metals
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
Exhibit 22: MNCs' earnings expand 20% in 2025
PAT (INR b)
2020
2024
97
243
12
40
24
59
18
22
267
394
5
2
23
38
3
6
3
0
-2
-3
32
49
34
11
516
863
MNC
Change (%)
2025
1.2
-9.5
15.3
6.1
36.1
65.4
19.7
1.0
92.8
Loss
8.1
59.7
20.0
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2024
2025
0.05
0.08
0.07
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.13
0.13
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.26
0.29
0.31
MNCs’ corporate
profit-to-GDP ratio
improves YoY
Sector
Automobiles
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
Healthcare
Logistics
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Others
Nifty-500
2025
246
36
69
24
536
4
46
6
1
-2
53
18
1,036
June 2025
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Corporate profit-to-GDP poised for further expansion
India’s nominal GDP grew 10.8% YoY in 4QFY25, marking the highest growth in
four quarters. This resulted in an overall growth of 9.8% for FY25. This healthy
performance reflects the strengthening domestic macroeconomic conditions,
which are likely to sustain and support corporate earnings going forward.
Although corporate profit growth moderated in FY25 due to a high base set in
FY24 and other factors mentioned earlier, we expect a gradual recovery going
ahead. This rebound is likely to be driven by increased government spending
compared to FY25, a favorable monsoon season, and coordinated policy
measures by the government and the RBI, including tax incentives and an
accommodative monetary policy that should help stimulate consumer spending.
Consequently, corporate earnings are projected to outpace GDP growth, with
Nifty earnings forecasted to grow 12% and 15% YoY in FY26E and FY27E,
respectively. This growth is anticipated alongside a nominal GDP growth rate of
10.8% YoY in FY26, which will further enhance the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio
in the coming years.
Nifty is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 21.2x, marginally above its own
long-period average (LPA).
We continue to focus on domestically oriented sectors amid ongoing global
uncertainties and volatility related to trade tariffs. Our OW positions are in BFSI,
Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, IT, and Telecom, while we
remain UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Automobiles, Real Estate, and Metals.
PAT (INR b)
FY25
FY26E
975
1,012
380
447
170
236
65
85
583
656
53
62
18
27
4,934
5,464
1,774
1,943
1,597
1,680
573
630
866
1,069
124
143
524
600
18
24
145
181
23
28
1,039
1,294
1,646
1,860
1,335
1,506
139
190
103
138
8
10
1,225
1,312
-29
59
432
526
163
233
12,614 14,444
Chg. YoY (%)
FY24 FY25 FY26E
88.7
6.9
3.8
26.1
25.4
17.6
30.4 -27.2
39.1
-29.0 -5.2
31.3
15.6
-1.6
12.4
23.2
27.9
17.0
27.3
66.8
50.5
23.2
13.5
10.7
27.3
6.4
9.5
34.0
23.4
5.2
11.5
19.3
9.8
7.3
6.9
23.4
44.9
31.3
15.5
24.9
21.1
14.4
-12.4
3.1
33.9
12.3
19.2
25.3
16.7
-3.3
18.2
0.2
16.4
24.5
78.2 -31.6
13.0
19.9 -15.0
12.8
19.2
42.8
36.9
5.0
10.0
34.0
-27.0 47.8
30.8
3.9
8.7
7.1
Loss
Loss
LP
8.4
6.9
21.9
159.0 12.9
42.7
30.0
3.8
14.5
CAGR (%)
(FY25-FY27)
8.3
19.2
34.0
28.5
12.0
18.9
48.4
13.8
14.3
9.0
12.1
21.6
16.9
14.2
29.7
21.2
15.4
23.5
11.3
11.9
23.5
28.9
24.3
8.1
LP
15.4
41.3
15.5
Exhibit 23: MOFSL Universe – profit pool (INR b)
Sector
Auto (26)
Capital Goods (13)
Cement (11)
Chemicals (12)
Consumer (21)
Consumer Durables (5)
EMS (7)
Financials (65)
Banks-PVT (12)
Banks-PSU (6)
Insurance (8)
NBFC - Lending (25)
NBFC - Non Lending (14)
Healthcare (26)
Infrastructure (3)
Logistics (8)
Media (3)
Metals (11)
Oil & Gas (15)
Ex OMCs (12)
Real Estate (13)
Retail (22)
Staffing (4)
Technology (13)
Telecom (5)
Utilities (7)
Others (20)
MOFSL (310)
FY23
483
241
179
96
513
34
8
3,527
1,309
966
431
756
65
347
20
108
21
891
1,351
1,310
81
89
7
1,085
-165
373
56
9,345
FY24
912
304
233
68
593
42
11
4,346
1,667
1,294
480
811
94
433
17
121
24
893
2,407
1,570
97
94
5
1,127
-126
404
145
12,149
FY27E
1,143
541
305
107
731
75
39
6,387
2,318
1,898
721
1,281
169
684
30
213
31
1,584
2,038
1,673
212
171
12
1,430
197
575
326
16,831
FY23
121.5
21.0
-22.2
31.1
17.2
8.4
36.9
60.8
39.8
58.4
378.9
52.3
5.1
-4.7
33.7
29.6
-11.2
-43.9
-20.3
4.2
51.7
61.3
-3.4
7.1
Loss
8.1
-0.9
9.8
FY27E
13.0
20.8
29.0
25.7
11.5
20.8
46.3
16.9
19.3
12.9
14.5
19.9
18.3
14.0
25.7
17.3
12.7
22.5
9.6
11.1
11.5
24.0
18.2
9.0
235
9.3
40
16.5
June 2025
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Analyzing two decades of corporate profit-to-GDP trends
We segregate the 2003 to 2025 period into three phases: 1) 2003-08, 2) 2008-
20, and 3) 2020-25.
Corporate profit-to-GDP doubles in Phase 1 (2003-08)…
The corporate profit-to-GDP ratio almost doubled to 5.2% from 2.7%, with profits of
Nifty-500 surging 30.2%. This was twice the pace of the underlying GDP CAGR of
14.5% over the same period.
This surge was propelled by the investments, exports, and capex-oriented
sectors. During 2003–08, the global economy was growing at a faster rate,
supporting the export-oriented players. Capex investments across sectors were
also significant as the investment cycle took off steadily.
Of the 2.5% improvement in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio over this period,
1.7% was contributed by Metals, Technology, Cap Goods, Cement, and Telecom.
The Technology sector benefited from global growth and the inflection point in
Indian IT when the sector built scale and took rapid strides.
The top 5 contributors to the profit delta during this phase were RIL, Tata Steel,
SAIL, DLF, and Bharti Airtel.
Exhibit 24: Contributors to the rise in corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (Phase 1)
0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01
0.01
0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.12 0.08 0.07 0.06
0.16 0.16 0.14
0.19 0.18
0.80 0.23
5.21
2.73
Exhibit 25: Stocks with a positive contribution to change
Company
Reliance Inds
Tata Steel
SAIL
DLF
Bharti Airtel
TCS
Coal India
Hindustan Zinc
Infosys
NMDC
Grasim Inds
MRPL
BHEL
JSW Steel
Wipro
Contributors to change (FY03-08)
Sector
pp
%
Oil & Gas
0.24
9.6
Metals
0.21
8.5
Metals
0.17
7.0
Real Estate
0.16
6.3
Telecom
0.14
5.6
Technology
0.10
4.1
Metals
0.10
3.9
Metals
0.08
3.4
Technology
0.06
2.3
Metals
0.05
2.2
Cement
0.05
1.9
Oil & Gas
0.04
1.7
Capital Goods
0.04
1.6
Metals
0.04
1.5
Technology
0.03
1.4
Exhibit 26: Stocks with a negative contribution to change
Company
IOCL
Tata Comm
HPCL
HUL
BPCL
NLC India
Power Fin.Corp.
ONGC
Bajaj Holdings
GAIL
J&K Bank
TVS Motor Co.
Dr Reddy's Labs
REC
IDBI Bank
Contributors to change (FY03-08)
Sector
pp
%
Oil & Gas
-0.10
-4.1
Telecom
-0.03
-1.3
Oil & Gas
-0.03
-1.3
Consumer
-0.03
-1.2
Oil & Gas
-0.03
-1.1
Utilities
-0.02
-1.0
NBFCs
-0.02
-0.9
Oil & Gas
-0.01
-0.6
NBFCs
-0.01
-0.4
Oil & Gas
-0.01
-0.4
Banks - Private
-0.01
-0.3
Automobiles
-0.01
-0.2
Healthcare
-0.01
-0.2
NBFCs
-0.01
-0.2
Banks - Private
-0.01
-0.2
June 2025
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Export-, investment-, and capex-oriented sectors drive the ratio in Phase 1
Exhibit 27: Nifty-500 earnings expand at 30% CAGR over 2003–08
Sector
Automobiles
BFSI
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Textiles
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
PAT (INR b)
2003
2008
21
111
164
419
30
91
98
214
5
25
31
88
21
135
5
88
7
35
42
98
1
6
0
1
19
75
1
8
2
8
2
7
26
442
266
583
2
91
1
3
26
163
-2
74
1
4
63
143
12
60
681
2,551
Change
(x)
CAGR (%)
5.2
39
2.6
21
3.0
25
2.2
17
4.8
37
2.8
23
6.3
45
16.7
76
5.2
39
2.4
19
7.3
49
134.2
166
4.0
32
6.6
46
3.3
27
3.4
27
16.8
76
2.2
17
46.9
116
5.3
39
6.4
45
LP
LP
3.2
26
2.3
18
5.1
39
3.7
30
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2003
2008
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.9
1.1
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.1
2.7
5.2
June 2025
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
…but more than halved over Phase 2 (2008-20)
During 2008–20, the downturn in domestic corporate earnings led to a
compression in the Nifty-500 profit-to-GDP ratio to 2.1% from 5.2%.
Similar to Phase 1, the movement in the ratio over Phase 2 was led by certain
sectors –
83% of the decline was attributed to Oil & Gas (27%), Metals (23%),
PSU Banks (14%), Telecom (14%), and Capital Goods (6%).
NBFC, Technology, Chemicals, Consumer, Retail, and Logistics were the only
sectors that have seen an improvement in the ratio during Phase 2.
The PSU banks
had been hit by asset quality issues (especially in corporate-
oriented banks), and lower loan growth that led to a significant deterioration in
profitability and return ratios.
The Metals sector
has seen significant swings in profitability since 2008. It
declined to 0.1% in 2015 from 0.9% in 2008 and bottomed out in 2017. The
fortunes of sectoral profitability are inextricably linked to underlying commodity
prices and have swung in line with the prices. During 2016-19, the sector
experienced a massive profitability jump owing to rising commodity prices along
with the phase of deleveraging in some big companies.
Telecom’s
profitability plummeted due to elevated competitive intensity after
the entry of Reliance Jio. This, coupled with rising capex intensity and a lower
operating margin, pushed the sector towards losses.
NBFCs, meanwhile, have delivered a solid performance over the last decade, with
consistent market share gains and rising penetration in several segments (Home
Finance / Vehicle Finance, etc.). The profit-to-GDP ratio for NBFCs expanded
consistently over the last decade. In fact, the Nifty-500 NBFC Universe PAT
clocked a 17% CAGR over 2008–20.
Key stocks contributing to the decline in the ratio over Phase 2 were ONGC (-
11%), Bharti Airtel (-9%), Tata Steel (-8%), RIL (-6%), and IOCL (-5%).
Exhibit 28: Contributors to decline in the corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (Phase 2; pp)
0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.10 0.08
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
0.10 0.13
0.17 0.18
0.18
5.21
0.43
0.43
0.73
0.83
2.08
June 2025
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 29: Stocks with a positive contribution to change
Company
HDFC Bank
TCS
Patanjali Foods
HCL Technologies
Bajaj Finance
Power Grid Corp
Kotak Mah. Bank
IndusInd Bank
Bajaj Finserv
Indus Towers
Tata Chemicals
Bandhan Bank
Adani Ports
Muthoot Finance
LIC of India
Sector
Banks - Private
Technology
Consumer
Technology
NBFCs
Utilities
Banks - Private
Banks - Private
NBFCs
Telecom
Chemicals
Banks - Private
Logistics
NBFCs
Insurance
Contributors to change (FY08-20)
pp
%
0.10
3.3
0.06
1.9
0.03
1.1
0.03
1.1
0.03
0.8
0.03
0.8
0.02
0.7
0.02
0.7
0.02
0.6
0.02
0.5
0.02
0.5
0.02
0.5
0.01
0.5
0.01
0.5
0.01
0.4
Exhibit 30: Stocks with a negative contribution to change
Company
ONGC
Bharti Airtel
Tata Steel
Reliance Inds
IOCL
DLF
SAIL
Vodafone Idea
Tata Motors
NTPC
Yes Bank
SBI
IDBI Bank
IOB
BHEL
Sector
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Metals
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Metals
Telecom
Automobiles
Utilities
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Capital Goods
Contributors to change (FY08-20)
pp
%
-0.35
-11.2
-0.29
-9.3
-0.24
-7.8
-0.20
-6.5
-0.17
-5.3
-0.16
-5.2
-0.14
-4.6
-0.13
-4.1
-0.10
-3.3
-0.09
-3.0
-0.09
-2.7
-0.08
-2.7
-0.08
-2.5
-0.07
-2.1
-0.07
-2.1
Corporate profit-to-GDP ratio declines to 2.1% in Phase 2 from 5.2% in 2008
led by just five sectors
Exhibit 31: A meager 4% CAGR in profits over Phase 2
Sector
Automobiles
BFSI
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Textiles
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
PAT (INR b)
2008
2020
111
190
419
923
91
249
214
20
25
92
88
562
135
185
88
165
35
215
98
463
6
27
1
-87
75
269
8
34
8
46
7
17
442
342
583
718
91
20
3
42
163
820
74
-571
4
22
143
253
60
84
2,551
4,178
(x)
1.7
2.2
2.7
0.1
3.7
6.4
1.4
1.9
6.2
4.7
4.6
PL
3.6
4.3
6.1
2.3
0.8
1.2
0.2
13.6
5.0
PL
6.1
1.8
1.4
1.6
Change
CAGR (%)
5
7
9
-18
11
17
3
5
16
14
14
PL
11
13
16
7
-2
2
-12
24
14
PL
16
5
3
4
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2008
2020
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.2
1.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
5.2
2.1
June 2025
18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Financials & Global Cyclicals lead the surge in Phase 3 (2020-25)
During Phase 3 (2020-25), the ratio improved for 19 of 25 sectors, of which 80%
was driven by PSU Banks (21%), Private Banks (18%), Telecom (13%), Automobiles
(9%), NBFCs (7%), and Metals (6%).
Technology, Cement, Chemicals, Media, and Textiles were the only sectors to
witness a compression in the ratio.
Exhibit 32: Nifty-500 earnings expand at 30% CAGR over 2020-25
Top-5 contributors to rise in
Phase 3 (%)
21
18
13
9
7
6
Sector
Automobiles
BFSI
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFCs
Capital Goods
Cement
Chemicals
Consumer
Consumer Durables
E-Commerce
Healthcare
Infrastructure
Logistics
Media
Metals
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
Retail
Technology
Telecom
Textiles
Utilities
Others
Nifty-500
PAT (INR b)
2020
2025
190
1,061
923
6,086
249
2,010
20
1,885
92
660
562
1,531
185
618
165
191
215
196
463
764
27
57
-87
-9
269
700
34
122
46
233
17
6
342
1,117
718
1,685
20
210
42
112
820
1,326
-571
187
22
4
253
754
84
255
4,178
15,675
(x)
5.6
6.6
8.1
93.5
7.2
2.7
3.3
1.2
0.9
1.7
2.1
Loss
2.6
3.5
5.0
0.4
3.3
2.3
10.5
2.7
1.6
LP
0.2
3.0
3.0
3.8
Change
CAGR (%)
41
46
52
148
48
22
27
3
-2
11
17
Loss
21
29
38
-19
27
19
60
22
10
LP
-28
24
25
30
Profit-to-GDP (%)
2020
2025
0.1
0.3
0.5
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
2.1
4.7
Exhibit 33: Contributors to rise in corporate profit-to-GDP ratio (in Phase 3)
0.05 0.05 0.04
0.04
0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.15 0.10 0.09 0.08
0.17 0.15
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05
0.23 0.18
0.56
2.08
0.48
0.34
4.74
June 2025
19
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Exhibit 34: Stocks with a positive contribution to change
Company
Bharti Airtel
Tata Motors
St Bk of India
Life Insurance
ICICI Bank
Yes Bank
IDBI Bank
HDFC Bank
Vedanta
Axis Bank
Union Bank (I)
Canara Bank
Bank of Baroda
ONGC
Punjab Natl.Bank
Sector
Telecom
Automobiles
Banks - Public
Insurance
Banks - Private
Banks - Private
Banks - Private
Banks - Private
Metals
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Banks - Public
Banks - Public
Oil & Gas
Banks - Public
Contributors to change (FY20-25)
pp
%
0.26
9.8
0.14
5.4
0.14
5.1
0.13
5.0
0.11
4.0
0.09
3.3
0.09
3.3
0.08
2.9
0.08
2.9
0.08
2.8
0.07
2.6
0.06
2.4
0.06
2.2
0.06
2.1
0.05
2.0
Exhibit 35: Stocks with a negative contribution to change
Contributors to change (FY20-25)
Company
Sector
pp
%
Patanjali Foods
Consumer
-0.03
-1.3
Tata Chemicals
Chemicals
-0.03
-1.3
Sammaan Capital NBFCs
-0.02
-0.6
IndusInd Bank
Banks - Private
-0.01
-0.5
TCS
Technology
-0.01
-0.5
Sh.Renuka Sugar Others
-0.01
-0.4
Grasim Inds
Cement
-0.01
-0.4
UltraTech Cem.
Cement
-0.01
-0.4
JSW Steel
Metals
-0.01
-0.4
GAIL (India)
Oil & Gas
-0.01
-0.3
Alok Industries
Textiles
-0.01
-0.3
Wipro
Technology
-0.01
-0.3
Power Grid Corpn Utilities
-0.01
-0.3
Tech Mahindra
Technology
-0.01
-0.3
NMDC Steel
Metals
-0.01
-0.3
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
June 2025
20
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS
June 2025
21
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
NOTES
June 2025
22
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
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Expected return (over 12-month)
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< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following
30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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Specific Disclosures
1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).
MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.
Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company
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preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report:No
3. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).
6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.
7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
June 2025
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India Strategy | Corporate profit to GDP
8.
MOFSL may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies)
in the past 12 months.
9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.
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