Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Review 1QFY26

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

India Strategy

BSE Sensex: 80,598

Refer to our Jun’25

quarter preview

Nifty-50: 24,631

Earnings review 1QFY26 – Modest yet Resilient!

Mid-caps shine and deliver strong earnings growth yet again



Corporate earnings – sectoral breadth promising:

Corporate earnings for 1QFY26,

perceived as the “Crossover quarter,” marked a transition from the subdued low-

single-digit earnings growth of FY25 to a sustainable double-digit growth trajectory.

A key highlight of the quarter was better sectoral breadth of earnings growth. Of

the 25 sectors under our coverage, 16 delivered double-digit growth, eight

reported single-digit growth, and only one sector experienced a decline in PAT.



Oil & Gas and Financials fuel modest earnings growth:

The aggregate earnings of

the MOFSL Universe companies grew 11% YoY (vs. our est. of 9% YoY) in 1QFY26.

Excluding Financials, earnings for the MOFSL Universe grew 13% YoY (est. +14%

YoY); whereas, barring global commodities (i.e., Metals and O&G), the MOFSL

Universe reported a 9% YoY earnings growth (est. +6% YoY). The overall modest

earnings growth was anchored by O&G (+27% YoY), Telecom (loss-to-profit), NBFC-

Lending (+14%), PSU Banks (+7%), Technology (+7%), Cement (+51%), and

Healthcare (+11%), which contributed 77% of the incremental YoY accretion in

earnings. In contrast, Automobiles (-3%) contributed adversely to earnings.



Nifty-50 delivers a fifth successive quarter of single-digit PAT growth:

The Nifty

delivered an 8% YoY PAT growth (vs. our est. of +5%).

Nifty reported a single-digit

earnings growth for the fifth consecutive quarter since the pandemic (Jun’20).

Five Nifty companies – Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, SBI, HDFC Bank, and ICICI

Bank – contributed 77% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely,

Coal India, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, HCL Technologies, Kotak Mahindra

Bank, Axis Bank, Eternal, HUL, and Nestle contributed adversely to the earnings.



Large-caps and mid-caps record in-line results, while small-caps report a miss:

Within our MOFSL coverage universe, large-caps (87 companies) posted an

earnings growth of 10% YoY – similar to the overall universe. Mid-caps (92

companies) have extended their streak of the past two quarters and yet again

delivered a strong earnings growth of 24% YoY (vs. our est. of 20%). Multiple mid-

cap sectors clocked impressive growth; 17 of 22 sectors under coverage delivered

a double-digit PAT growth. Oil & Gas, PSU Banks, NBFCs, Metals, and Technology

were the major growth drivers, which contributed 89% of the incremental YoY

accretion to earnings. In contrast, small-caps (132 companies) continued to

experience weakness and a broad-based miss, with Private Banks, NBFCs (lending

and non-lending), Insurance, Oil & Gas, and Automobiles posting a YoY earnings

dip. The small-cap earnings dipped 11% YoY (our est. of flat growth), with 46% of

the coverage universe missing our estimates. Conversely, within the large-

cap/mid-cap universes, 31%/27% of the companies missed our estimates.



The beat-miss dynamics:

The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was

balanced, with 37% of the companies exceeding our estimates, while 36%

reported a miss at the PAT level. For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-

to-downgrade ratio has been unfavorable at 0.6x in 1QFY26 (for FY26E), with the

earnings of 61 companies having been upgraded by >3%, while the earnings of

108 companies have been downgraded by >3%. Further, the EBITDA margin of the

MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded 70bp YoY to 17.6%, primarily aided by

Expectations vs. delivery: 1QFY26

% of companies that have declared results

Above Expectations

In-line

Below Expectations

MOFSL

PAT

Nifty

Research Analyst: Gautam Duggad

(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com) |

Abhishek Saraf

(Abhishek.Saraf@MotilalOswal.com)

Research Analyst: Deven Mistry

(Deven@MotilalOswal.com) |

Aanshul Agarawal

(Aanshul.Agarawal@Motilaloswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

August 2025

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

MOFSL Large-cap Universe – PAT

growth YoY (%)

Large Cap



32 30

3 0 5



MOFSL Mid-cap Universe – PAT

growth YoY (%)

Mid Cap

184



5 14

-36-28



MOFSL Small-cap Universe – PAT

growth YoY (%)

109

Small Cap

-1

-4

-2

-1

-4

-13

-11

-24

the Oil & Gas, Cement, Telecom, Metals, and Logistics sectors but hurt by the

Automobiles, Consumer, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors.

FY26E earnings highlights:

The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/

PAT growth of 4%/11%/12% YoY in FY26. The Financials, Metals, and Oil & Gas

sectors are projected to be the key growth engines, with 8%, 19%, and 9% YoY

earnings growth, respectively. These three sectors are likely to contribute 48% of

the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Further,

we categorized the coverage

stocks, based on market capitalization, into large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap

segments.

Notably, our large-cap universe is anticipated to deliver a 10% YoY

earnings growth in FY26E, while mid-cap is estimated to deliver 21% YoY

growth, and small-cap is estimated to deliver a 34% YoY growth in FY26E.

MOFSL Universe experiences a cut of 1.3%/0.7%....:

Our MOFSL Universe

witnessed a cut of 1.3% for FY26E, led by Oil & Gas, Private Banks, Utilities, and

Healthcare. While our mid-cap universe saw an upgrade of 1.7%, our small-cap

universe experienced a bigger cut at 4% for FY26E. The large-cap universe

witnessed a cut of 1.5%.

…and Nifty EPS witnesses a cut of 1.2%/0.9% for FY26E/FY27E:

The Nifty EPS

estimate for FY26 was reduced by 1.2% to INR1,108, largely owing to ONGC,

Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Power Grid Corp, and HDFC Bank. FY27E EPS was

also reduced by 0.9% to INR1,296 (from INR1,308) due to downgrades in ONGC,

Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Eternal, and Power Grid Corp.

The top earnings upgrades in FY26E:

Tata Consumer (9.7%), Apollo Hospitals

(6.5%), Eicher Motors (3.8%), Hero MotoCorp (3.5%), and IndusInd Bank (2.6%).

The top earnings downgrades in FY26E:

Eternal (-35.4%), ONGC (-10.2%), Axis

Bank (-8.7%), Power Grid Corp. (-5.3%), and Sun Pharma (-5.1%).

Key sectoral highlights

–

Banks:

The banking sector posted a weak yet in-line

1QFY26, with business momentum moderating after a busy 4QFY26. NIMs

contracted for both private and public banks, with private lenders seeing a

sharper decline due to higher exposure to repo-linked loans and interest

reversals from elevated slippages. Public banks also reported margin

compression, driven by their quicker loan repricing cycle. 2)

Autos:

For our

coverage universe, total revenue grew 4% YoY and was in line with our

estimates. While Auto OEMs reported a 3% YoY growth in revenues, the auto

ancillary universe posted a 6% YoY growth. On the operational front, Hyundai

and MSIL posted better-than-expected margins in 1Q. Aggregate earnings

growth for our OEM coverage universe (excluding TTMT) stood at 10% and was

ahead of our estimates, led primarily by higher other income, which was largely

attributed to MTM gains. 3)

Consumer:

Our coverage universe reported 8.3%

YoY revenue growth (vs. est. 5.8%). Excluding ITC, our consumer sector grew

6.2% YoY (est. 6%). FMCG demand remained stable, showing a gradual

sequential improvement backed by favorable macros. 4)

Oil & Gas:

Revenue

came in line with our estimates (flat YoY). However, excluding OMCs, revenue

was 6% below our estimates (flat YoY). EBITDA was 6% below estimates (up 17%

YoY). Adjusted PAT was 11% below estimates (up 27% YoY), primarily as OMCs,

GAIL, and OINL missed estimates. Excluding OMCs, adjusted PAT was 9% below

estimates (-1% YoY). 5)

Technology:

IT service companies (within the MOFSL

Universe) faced a challenging 1QFY26, with median revenue growing just 0.8%

QoQ CC (-0.6%/+1.7%/+2.0%/+1.2% in 4Q/3Q/2Q/1QFY25), as GenAI-led

productivity gains, weak macros, and client caution weighed on performance. 6)

Metals:

Ferrous companies within our coverage reported sales volume growth

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sector Review

Compendium

Highlights / Surprise /

Guidance… (Page 21 onwards)

Automobiles

Capital Goods

Cement

Chemicals

Consumer – FMCG | QSR

Consumer Durables

EMS

Financials – Banks

Financials – NBFC: Lending

Financials – NBFC: Non Lending

Healthcare

Infrastructure

Logistics

Metals

Oil & Gas

Pipes

Real Estate

Retail

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Exhibit 1: Our preferred ideas

Company



of 3% YoY in 1QFY26 but a 13% decline QoQ, impacted by maintenance

shutdowns and the early onset of monsoon. EBITDA for our ferrous coverage

increased 10% QoQ and 19% YoY, driven by healthy NSR and muted costs. PAT

for ferrous companies increased 14% QoQ and 59% YoY in 1QFY26, led by strong

operating performance supported by better NSR and muted costs.

Our view:

The 1QFY26 earnings have broadly been in line, with the severity of

earnings cuts moderating compared to the previous quarters, albeit the trend of

a higher number of downgrades continues into this quarter. EPS growth for

Nifty-50 is projected to rise to ~9% in FY26 (vs. an anemic 1% in FY25) – aided by

a likely improvement in the macro environment owing to the stimulative fiscal

and monetary measures. While the Indian equity market has been volatile over

the past two months owing to tariff jitters, we believe that improved earnings

prospects and reasonable valuations (barring small-caps) should enable the

market to achieve modest gains. We believe that the influence of the US tariff

wars on Indian markets will be limited. The Nifty trades at 22.2x FY26E earnings,

near its LPA of 20.7x. While our

model portfolio

bias remains towards large-caps

(~70% weight), we have turned more constructive towards mid-caps (with 22%

weight vs. 16% earlier) owing to better earnings delivery and improving

prospects. We are OW on BFSI, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare

& Telecom, while we are UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Real Estate, and Metals.

MCap CMP

EPS (INR)

EPS CAGR (%)

PE (x)

PB (x)

ROE (%)

(USDb) (INR) FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25-27

FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

6.1

2.7

4.1

4.6

4.2

4.3

16.3

8.2

9.0

4.5

9.2

4.4

7.3

17.6

5.1

7.5

2.6

6.7

7.4

23.8

6.7

10.4

3.0

3.6

18.0

16.0

20.8

16.6

9.3

35.8

2.1

26.8

15.7

30.7

14.6

16.3

30.0

11.4

29.4

15.1

13.9

17.8

51.8

11.0

12.8

16.0

7.9

22.4

17.0

17.3

21.3

15.9

12.2

36.5

3.4

24.0

19.6

28.4

16.7

15.7

29.2

15.3

24.5

15.3

17.1

18.0

48.3

13.9

17.2

16.5

3.2

25.8

17.3

18.2

20.7

16.7

14.0

33.5

10.5

22.9

24.2

26.8

15.4

16.3

33.6

18.0

33.0

16.1

20.7

22.2

46.1

16.4

18.7

18.2

8.1

Preferred large-cap stocks

Bharti Airtel

130.3 1,873 30.3 47.4 63.9

45.2

61.8 39.5 29.3 9.2 7.9

ICICI Bank

116.1 1,427 66.8 72.6 84.4

12.4

21.4 19.7 16.9 3.5 3.2

Larsen & Toubro

57.7 3,677 106.8 130.5 155.1

20.5

34.4 28.2 23.7 5.2 4.6

Mahindra & Mahindra

46.4 3,266 98.7 119.5 136.7

17.7

33.1 27.3 23.9 6.4 5.4

Sun Pharma

45.0 1,643 47.1 51.2 61.1

13.8

34.9 32.1 26.9 5.5 4.8

Ultratech Cement

41.4 12,298 207.6 305.6 382.8

35.8

59.2 40.2 32.1 5.1 4.7

Titan Company

35.5 3,489 42.3 54.6 64.2

23.2

82.5 63.9 54.4 26.7 20.7

Eternal

33.0

318

0.6

1.2

3.9

157.3

541.4 268.7 81.8 9.4 9.1

Bharat Electronics

32.1

385

7.2

8.2

9.8

16.5

53.2 46.8 39.2 14.2 11.2

Tech Mahindra

16.6 1,486 47.9 61.3 78.3

27.8

31.0 24.2 19.0 4.8 4.7

TVS Motor

16.4 3,021 57.1 67.1 79.6

18.1

53.0 45.0 38.0 14.4 11.4

Lodha Developers

14.0 1,233 28.7 37.9 40.2

18.5

43.0 32.6 30.6 5.9 5.1

Indian Hotels

12.6

774 11.8 13.4 16.1

16.8

65.5 57.9 48.0 9.9 8.5

Preferred mid/smallcap stocks

Dixon Tech.

11.1 16,191 117.2 169.3 265.1

50.4

138.2 95.6 61.1 32.4 24.5

SRF

9.7 2,843 46.1 68.7 92.6

41.8

61.7 41.4 30.7 6.7 6.0

Suzlon Energy

9.4

1.1

1.2

2.3

44.7

55.7 48.2 26.6 13.4 10.5

Jindal Stainless

6.9

730 30.5 36.1 44.5

20.7

23.9 20.2 16.4 3.6 3.1

Coforge

6.3 1,642 25.2 46.4 58.9

52.9

65.2 35.4 27.9 8.5 7.7

Supreme Inds.

6.2 4,298 75.6 85.0 119.6

25.7

56.8 50.6 35.9 9.6 8.7

Page Industries

5.5 43,519 652.9 736.4 843.3

13.7

66.7 59.1 51.6 34.5 28.5

Kaynes Tech

4.7 6,113 45.8 81.5 132.9

70.4

133.5 75.0 46.0 13.8 7.9

Radico Khaitan

4.4 2,855 25.8 40.1 51.4

41.1

110.7 71.3 55.6 14.2 12.2

UTI AMC

1.9 1,330 63.9 68.8 79.8

11.8

20.8 19.3 16.7 3.3 3.1

Niva Bupa Health

1.7

1.2

0.6

1.8

23.9

70.1 135.0 45.7 4.9 3.9

Note: LP = Loss to profit; Large-cap, Mid-cap, and Small-cap stocks listed above are as per the SEBI categorization

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Aggregate performance in line, anchored by O&G



The MOFSL Universe’s sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT grew 5%/11%/10%/11% YoY (vs.

our est. of +4%/+10%/+5%/+9%). Excluding Metals and O&G, the MOFSL

Universe companies recorded sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 8%/10%/8%/9%

YoY (vs. est. of +8%/7%/0%/6%) in 1QFY26.

The overall modest earnings growth was anchored by O&G (+27% YoY), Telecom

(loss-to-profit), NBFC-Lending (+14%), PSU Banks (+7%), Technology (+7%), Cement

(+51%), and Healthcare (+11%), which contributed 77% of the incremental YoY

accretion in earnings. Conversely, Automobiles (-3%) contributed adversely to the

earnings.

The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded 70bp YoY to

17.6%, primarily aided by the Oil & Gas, Cement, Telecom, Metals, and Logistics

sectors but hurt by the Automobiles, Consumer, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors.

Exhibit 2: Sector-wise 1Q performance of the MOFSL Universe companies (INRb)

Sales

Sector

(no of companies)

EBITDA

PBT

PAT

Var.

Chg. % Chg. %

Jun-25

over Jun-25

over

QoQ YoY

Exp. %

Automobiles (26)

3,203 -4.8

2.7

378 -18.1 -13

-2.1 304 -17.9

-6

6.7

229 -18.9

-3

7.5

Capital Goods (13)

990 -22.3 14.6 0.8

119 -40.3 16.2 1.7

119 -37.8 20.7 5.5

81 -41.2 17.7 5.4

Cement (11)

661 -4.6

0.4

115 -1.9

2.1

-0.4

11.3

-0.8

8.7

Chemicals (12)

169 -2.3

3.4

-5.1

3.1

7.6

2.3

6.3 11.7 4.6

7.2 14.0 3.7

Consumer (21)

975

8.9

2.3

222

8.7

-0.1 210

9.1

-0.3 157

9.9

-0.7

Consumer Durables (5)

199 -14.9 3.4

-1.4

20 -25.2 3.3

-1.7

19 -25.2 1.6

-2.6

14 -25.8 1.0

-2.4

EMS (7)

186

8.7

9.9

10 -18.7 66

13.0

-39.6 73

9.7

-23.2 58

8.1

Financials (62)

4,132 -12.4 5.9

0.2 1,935 4.9 15.7 9.4 1,584 -4.4

5.5 13.5 1,203 -6.8

5.9

3.1

Banks-Private (12)

934

1.0

0.7

822 21.8

18.0 542

0.2

-4

-2.2 430

4.9

3.3

Banks-PSU (6)

876 -3.1 -0.4 -0.8 661 -1.6 10.0 7.5

543 -0.6 13.1 9.9

372 -9.7

7.2

2.3

Insurance (8)

1,775 -24.4

0.1

42 -46.3 13

-0.8 153 -38.4

785.0 134 -37.4

1.2

NBFC - Lending (22)

472

0.9 15.7 1.6

371 -3.4 11.5 -1.5 300

5.7 12.9 4.8

232

3.4 13.5 4.7

NBFC-Non Lend. (14)

7.0

-0.6

8.6

0.7

21.5

5.7

16.9

5.3

Healthcare (26)

930

1.5 10.3 0.4

226

3.3

9.9

2.4

184

3.4

1.8

0.6

140

0.9 10.8 0.2

Infrastructure (3)

44 -10.9

-4

-3.1

12 -12.1

-0.5

-21.5

-5

4.7

-19.9 13

7.3

Logistics (8)

177

2.3 19.1 1.7

5.6 24.9 2.4

3.2 19.4 -0.9

3.1 24.9 4.1

Media (3)

4.8

-1

-3.1

34.1

-7.8

28.5

-6.0

27.2

-3.0

Metals (11)

3,008 -5.5

3.6

1.3

587 -4.0

7.3

1.7

404 -6.6

4.0

6.9

283 -9.1

3.8

8.5

Oil & Gas (15)

7,741 -3.6

3.5 1,001 0.1

-6.4 668

1.6

-9.4 471 -1.0

27 -10.8

Ex OMCs (12)

3,579 -7.7

0.5

-5.7 702 -3.7

1.6

-3.3 454 -2.5

1.9

-6.5 309 -4.6 -0.5 -8.9

Real Estate (13)

148 -17.2 17.8 -9.8

36 -26.1 3.2 -28.5 40 -13.3 8.7 -14.7 34 -14.8 15.9 -17.4

Retail (22)

621 10.8

1.5

17.0

5.3

26.2

5.5

27.2

3.2

Staffing (4)

108

1.3

8.5

-0.6

-7.5 10.6 -7.5

-18.1 20.4 -14.5

-8.0 26.2 -7.9

Technology (13)

2,014 0.1

-0.3 441 -1.3

-1.9 425

1.0

0.8

316

0.6

1.2

Telecom (5)

768

2.5 20.1 0.9

391

2.1 28.5 1.4

22.5 241.5 13.4

16 218.3 LP

61.0

Utilities (8)

803 -0.7

-4.5 267

0.9

-1

-6.3 141 -12.1 12

2.3

107 -7.3

2.0

Others (23)

739 -6.8

0.2

123 -19.3 11

-2.7

51 -36.1

-7.5

42 -34.5

-5.1

MOFSL Universe (311) 27,662 -5.0

5.3

1.4 6,065 -1.7 11.2 1.3 4,426 -5.2

9.7

4.3 3,249 -6.8 10.5 0.9

Ex Financials (249)

23,530 -3.6

5.2

1.7 4,130 -4.5

9.2

-2.1 2,843 -5.7 12.2 -0.2 2,046 -6.8 13.4 -0.3

Ex Metals & Oil (285)

16,913 -5.6

8.4

0.5 4,477 -1.8 10.5 3.1 3,354 -6.3

7.5

7.3 2,496 -7.6

8.6

2.7

Ex OMCs (308)

23,499 -5.9

6.5

-0.4 5,765 -2.3

9.0

2.1 4,212 -6.0

6.5

5.6 3,088 -7.4

7.2

1.9

Nifty (50)

13,970 -4.9

5.8

-0.5 3,802 0.8 10.3 3.9 2,755 -3.0

6.8

2.7 2,003 -2.1

8.2

3.4

Sensex (30)

10,666 -4.2

6.6

-1.1 3,064 0.7 12.7 3.7 2,221 -4.1 10.3 1.6 1,606 -3.9 12.3 2.8

LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Large-caps deliver in-line earnings growth with the overall universe



Within our MOFSL coverage universe, large-caps (87 companies) posted an

earnings growth of 10% YoY – similar to the overall universe.

Large-caps (87 companies) have extended their winning streak with 20

consecutive quarters of earnings growth.

Multiple large-cap sectors clocked impressive growth; 16 of 19 sectors under

coverage delivered a PAT growth. Oil & Gas, Telecom, Private Banks, NBFC -

Lending, and Technology were the key drivers of performance, which

contributed 77% to the incremental YoY accretion in earnings.

Exhibit 3: Sector-wise 1Q performance of the MOFSL Large-cap Universe companies (INR b)

Sector

(no of companies)

Automobiles (8)

Capital Goods (5)

Cement (4)

Consumer (10)

Consumer Durables (1)

Financials (16)

Banks-Private (4)

Banks-PSU (4)

Insurance (3)

NBFC - Lending (5)

Healthcare (10)

Logistics (1)

Metals (7)

Oil & Gas (5)

Ex OMCs (3)

Real Estate (2)

Retail (3)

Technology (6)

Telecom (2)

Utilities (3)

Others (4)

MOFSL Large-cap Univ. (87)

Ex Financials (71)

Ex Metals & Oil (75)

Ex OMC (85)

Jun-25

2,512

804

457

783

3,282

739

722

1,519

302

596

2,543

6,159

3,104

377

1,814

575

705

304

21,120

17,838

12,419

18,066

Sales

Chg. % Var. over

YoY Exp. (%)

4.0

3.3

14.5

1.4

17.5

0.6

7.7

2.7

-6.0

-6.6

6.0

0.0

6.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

6.8

-0.2

20.1

2.2

11.2

1.7

31.2

6.3

2.2

2.6

1.5

1.0

3.2

-6.1

47.5

9.7

20.2

2.2

4.2

-0.1

25.3

1.6

-1.7

-5.1

17.2

-1.6

5.2

1.1

5.0

1.3

7.7

0.8

6.1

-0.2

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY Exp. (%)

282

-16.3

-2.7

14.1

1.9

44.2

3.7

187

-0.2

-0.3

-9.9

-8.4

1,531

19.1

10.9

716

29.5

19.6

528

10.0

8.8

16.5

-2.0

250

13.2

-3.3

157

9.9

5.5

29.5

6.5

508

5.9

3.3

872

14.2

-4.6

649

4.6

-0.8

36.9

-23.0

28.8

8.0

408

3.5

-1.5

322

32.9

1.9

225

-9.0

-9.5

0.3

-8.9

4,850

10.8

2.1

3,319

7.4

-1.5

3,470

10.7

3.8

4,627

9.3

3.1

Jun-25

228

100

177

1,299

501

441

137

220

137

346

571

415

395

128

121

3,671

2,372

2,755

3,515

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

-8.1

8.9

172

18.7

5.4

51.4

16.1

-0.4

-0.8

131

-14.4

-11.9

8.5

14.9

986

2.9

-2.2

400

11.7

9.9

295

1.3

2,150.8

121

21.6

4.5

170

6.7

2.5

106

22.2

3.4

1.2

10.0

240

23.2

-7.1

398

6.9

-3.2

280

28.0

-14.5

24.9

7.0

4.8

1.1

293

62.9

0.5

6.4

0.4

-13.7

-10.7

9.5

5.5

2,700

10.1

0.9

1,714

8.1

7.9

2,062

7.3

6.7

2,582

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

-4.2

10.0

14.7

5.0

41.2

13.8

0.4

-1.2

-14.7

-11.3

8.8

2.4

8.8

3.7

3.8

0.3

5.8

0.7

21.5

4.1

8.7

1.8

27.7

9.3

1.1

11.9

22.6

-8.9

4.4

-5.9

28.3

-16.5

24.9

6.3

5.7

1.2

77.9

-1.7

9.9

1.4

-20.8

-15.6

9.8

1.2

10.4

0.5

8.7

2.3

7.5

2.1

Exhibit 4: Top-10 performers in Large-caps for 1QFY26

INR M

Company

JSW Steel

Shree Cement

Tata Steel

Titan Company

Apollo Hospitals

TVS Motor

M&M

Larsen & Toubro

REC

Trent

Jun-25

4,31,470

49,480

5,31,781

1,65,230

58,421

1,00,810

3,40,832

6,36,789

55,671

47,813

Sales

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

0.5

1.0

2.3

0.0

-2.9

6.2

24.6

5.3

14.9

1.8

20.4

0.4

26.1

3.1

15.5

3.0

19.2

2.9

19.8

-0.2

Jun-25

75,760

12,291

74,275

18,300

8,519

12,630

48,840

63,177

50,303

8,377

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

37.5

6.3

34.1

-4.6

11.0

6.7

46.8

14.7

26.2

9.2

31.5

4.9

21.4

3.2

12.5

3.0

4.8

-4.5

37.2

16.6

Jun-25

31,720

8,331

31,195

14,800

5,691

10,531

44,713

58,595

56,469

5,552

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

127.9

16.4

137.5

39.1

18.1

10.6

52.1

13.1

36.0

4.9

34.5

5.1

31.3

13.5

25.3

7.9

30.5

9.5

23.5

18.5

Jun-25

21,840

6,185

21,305

10,910

4,328

7,786

34,498

36,172

44,510

4,226

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

158.5

11.3

94.7

38.6

61.7

34.7

52.6

11.9

41.8

12.8

34.9

5.0

32.0

12.2

29.8

7.7

29.3

7.9

23.5

18.7

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Mid-caps deliver the strongest growth in earnings yet again



Mid-caps (89 companies) have extended their streak of the past two quarters and

yet again delivered the sharpest earnings growth of 24% YoY (vs. our est. of 20%).

Multiple mid-cap sectors clocked impressive growth; 17 of 22 sectors under

coverage delivered a double-digit PAT growth. Oil & Gas, PSU Banks, NBFCs,

Metals, and Technology were the key drivers of performance, which contributed

89% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings.

Exhibit 5: Sector-wise 1Q performance of the MOFSL Mid-cap Universe companies (INR b)

Sector

(no of companies)

Automobiles (10)

Capital Goods (3)

Cement (3)

Chemicals (2)

Consumer (7)

Consumer Durables (3)

EMS (2)

Financials (18)

Banks-Private (4)

Banks-PSU (2)

Insurance (3)

NBFC - Lending (4)

NBFC - Non Lending (5)

Healthcare (9)

Logistics (2)

Metals (4)

Oil & Gas (4)

Ex OMCs (3)

Real Estate (4)

Retail (3)

Technology (5)

Telecom (3)

Utilities (2)

Others (8)

MOFSL Mid-cap Univ. (92)

Ex Financials (74)

Ex Metals & Oil (84)

Ex OMCs (91)

Jun-25

453

131

147

124

135

632

140

154

205

255

465

1,315

208

169

192

340

4,740

4,108

2,960

3,632

Sales

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY Exp. (%)

0.8

-0.2

-1.9

0.0

12.4

-6.6

52.9

5.2

12.3

2.1

27.9

0.4

3.4

-8.7

11.3

-1.3

10.6

0.3

10.8

1.7

6.5

0.6

5.9

0.8

90.7

5.9

89.1

7.8

7.6

1.6

314

10.2

6.0

238

-2.5

3.4

-7.4

12.9

0.2

-1.3

133

10.0

2.8

103

12.6

1.9

31.5

14.5

20.2

3.4

25.0

5.8

31.4

0.2

40.8

2.4

8.9

-1.4

9.3

-2.7

8.6

-3.9

6.5

-8.3

11.5

-5.0

17.5

-7.6

-4.3

18.7

110

65.0

-11.3

-12.4

-2.4

-28.0

-16.8

-4.6

-21.0

-14.0

-22.3

27.1

1.8

22.8

2.3

21.2

-1.1

18.3

-5.5

6.9

-0.9

11.1

-0.6

-58

68.8

2.3

89.5

18.5

17.1

2.0

34.1

6.7

7.1

4.0

927

18.0

-0.3

587

7.0

4.4

613

22.4

-3.2

349

12.3

0.0

739

13.2

2.5

444

10.4

-0.8

850

11.1

0.6

529

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY Exp. (%)

2.9

2.1

53.1

11.2

45.9

2.3

15.8

-1.4

13.0

2.3

6.2

0.9

92.4

2.3

7.2

10.8

182

-42.9

8.4

19.9

9.9

29.3

66.7

28.6

7.4

35.5

7.2

-16.1

-3.0

5.6

-11.6

23.9

-8.4

92.8

-13.0

-32.1

-16.4

-4.7

1.8

33.2

7.0

27.7

-2.5

Loss

-11.7

-60

47.6

13.6

418.6

-12.6

19.7

2.6

423

30.1

-2.4

241

11.2

8.0

316

8.9

4.4

379

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY Exp. (%)

1.2

3.0

55.4

12.2

39.3

-2.1

14.7

-0.7

12.0

1.8

5.4

0.8

62.4

1.2

8.4

9.6

-42.5

9.5

22.4

10.6

17.9

14.2

29.6

7.7

39.3

8.3

13.8

-2.8

11.0

-9.8

21.8

-7.3

93.1

-13.0

-32.2

-16.8

-1.0

-5.5

33.7

7.9

28.1

1.3

Loss

-11.0

29.5

2.0

51.8

24.5

3.3

40.1

-1.0

16.5

9.1

12.8

5.3

Exhibit 6: Top-10 performers in Mid-caps for 1QFY26

INR M

Company

Laurus Labs

Hitachi Energy

BSE

Radico Khaitan

MCX

Nalco

J K Cements

Dalmia Bharat

Coromandel Intl

Polycab India

Jun-25

15,696

14,789

9,584

15,060

3,732

38,069

33,525

36,360

70,423

59,060

Sales

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

31.4

5.0

3,821

11.4

-21.9

1,549

59.2

-2.2

6,259

32.5

8.9

2,322

59.2

-2.6

2,417

33.3

-11.8

14,921

19.4

3.7

6,877

0.4

-2.8

8,830

48.9

13.8

7,821

25.7

4.8

8,576

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

123.2

22.9

2,242

223.4

-28.8

1,769

121.6

7.1

6,851

55.8

17.4

1,846

82.3

-3.5

2,569

59.7

-11.2

14,293

41.4

3.7

4,891

32.0

8.6

5,020

54.6

2.4

6,773

47.0

16.3

8,006

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

1114.6

32.8

1,603

1075.3

-1.3

1,316

111.0

6.9

5,292

82.1

26.2

1,403

86.3

-0.4

2,032

74.9

-3.8

10,495

79.1

19.1

3,243

63.5

13.3

3,731

54.9

-2.3

5,050

50.1

17.9

5,921

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

1164.5

29.9

1163.0

1.6

101.3

10.9

83.9

28.1

83.2

1.0

78.4

-3.9

75.0

18.9

65.8

14.9

62.4

0.2

49.5

17.4

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Small-caps continue to suffer the most!



In contrast, small-caps (132 companies) continued to experience weakness and

a broad-based miss, with Private Banks, NBFCs (lending and non-lending),

Insurance, Oil & Gas, and Automobiles posting a YoY earnings decline.

The small-cap earnings dipped 11% YoY (our est. of flat growth), with 46% of the

coverage universe missing our estimates. Conversely, within the large-cap/mid-

cap universes, 31%/27% of the companies missed our estimates.

Exhibit 7: Sector-wise 1Q performance of the MOFSL Small-cap Universe companies (INR b)

Sector

(no of companies)

Jun-25

Sales

EBITDA

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY Exp. (%)

1.6

-0.1

16.5

1.3

10.2

-3.1

-3.4

-4.5

3.4

-3.1

5.2

5.1

2.6

-2.0

13.9

1.2

49.6

1.4

22.3

21.2

0.7

-0.8

-11.7

-2.5

-7

0.4

-10

-1.4

13.7

2.1

-2

13.1

-4

-3.3

-11

-3.1

6.3

-1.3

-5.2

-1.7

-3.1

-8.9

-3.6

-3.1

0.4

-0.5

-2.2

-14.1

-1.0

-3.1

0.0

-7.8

-16

-3.3

-20

-37.7

13.3

-19.0

6.5

-51.2

-3

-0.2

-3

1.6

8.5

-0.6

10.6

-7.5

-2.8

-4

-15.9

37.8

-10.3

48.7

3.6

-0.4

3.2

2.6

-1.1

287

-0.9

-7.1

168

2.8

-1.2

198

5.0

-9.1

121

6.6

-0.8

268

0.9

-3.6

155

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY Exp. (%)

-7

-4.1

10.6

-0.6

967

-2.7

8.6

9.9

1.9

39.0

1.2

23.5

-43.0

-7.0

-67

-34.4

-36.0

-17.8

-48

0.9

-5.7

3.3

-10.9

-4.8

4.7

-21.5

11.0

-6.0

-31

-50.3

50.7

-57.2

-13.0

20.4

-14.5

-4.7

114.3

26.1

7.8

-12.2

-11.3

127

10.7

-12.9

-10.2

-5.3

118

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY Exp. (%)

-8

-6.6

11.4

0.5

41,673

-2.4

13.5

7.4

4.0

39.4

2.7

20.4

-42.8

-7.8

-68

-36.2

-43.0

-28.0

-47

3.1

-7.4

0.7

-10.7

12.7

7.3

-20.5

13.2

-3.0

-30

-47.9

70.7

-46.2

-37.5

26.2

-7.9

-4.7

154.9

19.5

8.6

-10.6

-11.0

14.2

-12.1

-8.6

-5.7

Automobiles (8)

238

Capital Goods (5)

120

Cement (4)

Chemicals (10)

112

Consumer (4)

Consumer Durables (1)

EMS (5)

Financials (28)

218

Banks-Private (4)

Insurance (2)

NBFC - Lending (13)

NBFC - Non Lending (9)

Healthcare (7)

Infrastructure (3)

Logistics (5)

Media (3)

Oil & Gas (6)

267

Real Estate (7)

Retail (16)

149

Staffing (4)

108

Technology (2)

Utilities (3)

Others (11)

MOFSL Small-cap Univ. (132) 1,801

Ex Financials (104)

1,583

Ex Metals & Oil (126)

1,534

LP: Loss to profit; PL: Profit to loss

Exhibit 8: Top-10 performers in Small-caps for 1QFY26

INR M

Company

Jun-25

Sales

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

62.1

32.9

299

65.0

-1.0

4,578

-83.0

-77.5

-550

12.6

0.0

1,262

-18.6

-3.1

866

38.5

-6.9

2,068

30.1

1.6

1,836

2.8

-1.6

1,100

17.8

1.0

1,405

-1.8

-6.7

6,490

EBIDTA

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

583.6

116.5

193

68.5

2.6

1,903

Loss

-564

27.5

14.8

429

94.3

10.5

672

106.1

2.0

1,551

68.8

34.4

1,406

70.9

43.3

927

22.1

2.1

633

13.1

13.6

3,180

PBT

Chg. % Var. over

Jun-25

YoY

Exp. (%)

104.9

142

278.7

27.3

1,467

Loss

512

360.7

25.3

336

127.7

6.6

497

127.1

3.4

1,172

98.6

51.8

1,047

94.4

54.0

693

117.5

8.2

383

47.9

48.3

2,520

PAT

Chg. % Var. over

YoY

Exp. (%)

102.5

10464.5

27.5

302.2

251.9

176.8

30.8

157.8

8.9

128.8

4.4

104.1

51.1

96.3

53.7

93.5

30.3

86.7

37.9

Avalon Tech

3,233

ACME Solar

5,110

Mahindra Lifespace

320

V-Mart Retail

8,852

Syrma SGS Tech.

9,440

Navin Fluorine

7,254

Senco Gold

18,263

P N Gadgil Jewellers 17,146

Lemon Tree Hotel

3,158

Tata Chemicals

37,190

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 9: PAT increased 11% YoY for

the MOFSL Universe

MOFSL Universe

37 29

1 6

-1

6 9

Exhibit 10: PAT was up 13% YoY for the

MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials

MOFSL Ex Financials

47 52

-10

-22

-5 -9

Exhibit 11: PAT rose 9% YoY for the

MOFSL Universe, sans Metals & O&G

MOFSL Ex Metals & Oil

4 12

32 37

23 23

18 15

11 10 9

Exhibit 12: PAT growth for the Nifty

Universe stood at 8% YoY

Nifty Universe

22 23

13 12

Exhibit 13: PAT for the Nifty Universe,

sans Financials, was up 8% YoY

Nifty Ex Financials

Exhibit 14: PAT grew 9% YoY for the

Nifty Universe, sans Metals & O&G

Nifty Ex Metals & Oil

35 33 31

18 17

12 11

6 3

9 7

21 21

Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio unfavorable for FY26E



For the MOFSL Universe, the earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio has been

unfavorable at 0.6x in 1QFY26 (for FY26E), with the earnings of 61 companies

having been upgraded by >3%, while the earnings of 108 companies have been

downgraded by >3%.

The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was balanced, with 37% of the

companies exceeding our estimates, while 36% reported a miss at the PAT level.

Of the 25 sectors under our coverage, 8/13/4 sectors reported profits above/in

line/below our estimates.

Exhibit 15: The upgrade-to-downgrade ratio trend for the MOFSL Universe – stable over the last two quarters

2.7

1.7

Earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.6

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 16: Surprise/miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe at 1x

in 1QFY26

MOFSL Universe PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)

Exhibit 17: Sectoral surprise/miss ratio at 2x in 1QFY26 for

the MOFSL Universe

MOFSL Sector PAT (Surprise / Miss ratio)

5.0

4.3

3.4

2.4

2.3

1.21.1

1.5

1.0

1.8

1.5

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.7

1.4

0.9

0.6

2.3

0.8

1.2

2.8

1.7

1.3

0.5 0.5

0.9

1.0

2.0

0.9

1.2

0.9

1.2

0.4 0.3

Exhibit 18: Two- and three-year profit CAGR for the MOFSL Universe

EBITDA (INR b)

CAGR (%)

PBT (INR b)

CAGR (%)

PAT (INR b)

Sector

1QFY23 1QFY24 1QFY26 2-year 3-year 1QFY23 1QFY24 1QFY26 2-year 3-year 1QFY23 1QFY24 1QFY26

Automobiles

174

363

378

254

304

187

229

Capital Goods

119

Cement

115

Chemicals

-1

-6

-4

-10

Consumer

180

210

222

167

201

210

124

149

157

Cons. Durables

EMS

Financials

1,085 1,472 1,935

784 1,264 1,584

563

980 1,203

Banks-Private

429

566

822

352

484

542

266

363

430

Banks-PSU

383

580

661

182

431

543

133

307

372

Insurance

153

113

134

NBFC - Lending

219

275

371

164

230

300

128

177

232

NBFC-Non Lend.

Healthcare

129

166

226

102

129

184

140

Infrastructure

-1

-10

-5

-17

Logistics

Media

-4

-10

-7

Metals

647

469

587

-3

501

330

404

-7

338

234

283

Oil & Gas

676 1,156 1,001

-7

371

870

668

-12

244

631

471

Real Estate

Retail

Staffing

-9

-3

Technology

355

393

441

326

366

425

242

271

316

Telecom

248

291

391

-21

805

-47

-29

Utilities

209

252

267

102

114

141

107

Others

107

123

-5

MOFSL Universe 4,129 5,259 6,065

2,674 3,873 4,426

1,854 2,871 3,249

CAGR (%)

2-year

3-year

162

-4

-10

-16

-5

-6

-14

-10

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 19: Sales for the MOFSL Universe up 5% YoY (est. 4%)

-3

-28

29 27 25

5 3 7 8

5 6 6

Exhibit 20: EBITDA for the MOFSL Univ. up 11% YoY (est. 10%)

12 12

8 11

27 29

14 12

4 1

9 8

-13

Exhibit 21: PAT for the MOFSL Universe up 11% YoY (est.

9%)

127

101

23 19 15

1 6

37 29

Exhibit 22: EBITDA margin, excluding Financials, expanded

70bp YoY to 17.6%

10 2

-1

6 9

-40

Exhibit 23: MOFSL Universe (ex-Nifty) posted a profit growth of 14% YoY

162

145

-16

-4

152

-6

-12

-45

Exhibit 24: Sales growth for the MOFSL Universe, barring

Nifty companies, stood at 5% YoY

-3

-31

Exhibit 25: EBITDA was up 13% YoY for the MOFSL Universe,

excluding Nifty companies

6 8 7 6 4 5

-1

-13

6 7

54 51

-3 -6

-9 -12

-1

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Margin expands for several sectors



Sales for the MOFSL Universe companies grew 5% YoY (in line). Excluding Metals

and O&G, sales growth was in line at 8% YoY (in line).

Sectoral sales growth: EMS (66%), Telecom (20%), Logistics (19%), Real Estate

(18%), and NBFC – Non-Lending (17%).

The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) expanded by 70bp YoY

to 17.6%.

Gross margins for more than half of the sectors expanded during the quarter. In

1QFY26, 8 of the 15 major sectors under MOFSL Coverage posted an expansion

in gross margin YoY.

Exhibit 26: Gross margin expanded in more than half of the sectors

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY26

68.2

24.5

50.1

53.5

26.3

69.0

45.9

53.1

39.0

51.1

33.8

28.9

34.2

49.4

45.8

Change in

GM bps

YoY

1,017

339

319

173

115

-42

-76

-133

-156

-197

-285

-577

Cement

62.6

57.4

60.4

57.7

58.1

63.9

56.6

57.8

Oil & Gas

25.2

26.0

22.0

22.7

21.1

21.5

23.2

23.8

Utilities

47.8

46.9

48.9

49.9

46.9

50.5

49.3

50.3

Logistics

52.7

51.7

52.0

52.2

51.8

52.7

52.4

53.2

Consumer Durables

25.4

27.2

26.6

25.3

25.1

25.7

26.6

25.6

Healthcare

65.1

65.6

66.0

67.2

68.1

68.2

67.6

68.2

Others

45.9

41.2

42.5

42.4

45.2

41.2

46.6

45.7

Chemicals

54.6

53.3

54.1

54.2

52.6

53.0

53.9

51.9

Infrastructure

36.7

40.2

51.7

33.0

39.5

42.2

42.0

43.0

Metals

51.8

49.0

54.6

52.9

51.8

50.6

52.5

51.8

Technology

33.8

33.9

34.4

34.3

35.1

33.8

34.1

33.9

Retail

30.5

30.1

30.7

29.7

30.4

29.6

28.2

28.9

Automobiles

34.4

34.0

35.2

35.9

36.2

35.0

35.6

35.3

Consumer

51.1

52.1

52.4

53.1

52.2

51.2

51.0

51.3

Real Estate

47.9

51.5

53.3

48.8

51.6

48.6

50.3

49.9

Source: 229 companies that form part of the MOFSL Universe, excluding Financials, Telecom, Media, and Staffing

Exhibit 27: Several sectors recovered YoY in terms of operating margins

Jun-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Contributions of O&G, Tech, and Consumer improve in the profit pool



The Oil & Gas contribution to the profit pool saw an improvement to 14.5% in

1QFY26 – this was at a five-quarter high.

After hitting a new low of 4.1% in 4QFY25, the Consumer sector's contribution

to the profit pool recovered to 4.8% in 1QFY26.

The BFSI contribution to the overall MOFSL profit pool accounted for more than

one-third of the profits. The contribution was stable at 37% and was the lowest

in the last six quarters.

The Automobile’s contribution to the profit pool slipped to an 8-quarter low of

7.1% in 1QFY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 28: Financials’ contribution the lowest in the last six

quarters at 37%

Financials

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

38.2

34.1

35.3

36.3

38.6

Exhibit 29: IT sector’s contribution to the overall profit pool

climbed in 1QFY26

Technology

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

10.6

9.9

9.2

10.0

10.1

PAT (INR b)

40.5

37.9

37.0

9.4

9.6

9.7

9.0

Exhibit 30: O&G’s PAT contribution to the overall profit pool

at a five-quarter high

Oil & Gas

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

Exhibit 31: Metals’ PAT contribution to the MOFSL Universe

moderated in 1QFY26

Metals

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

9.3

8.2

6.8

8.5

6.8

7.1

8.2

PAT (INR b)

8.9

8.7

PAT (INR b)

22.0

21.6

16.1

15.7

12.6 12.9

13.6

14.5

Exhibit 32: Auto sector’s contribution to the overall profit

pool at an eight-quarter low in 1QFY26

Automobiles

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

8.3

7.6

6.5

8.2

8.1

7.7

7.1

PAT (INR b)

8.1

Exhibit 33: Consumer sector’s contribution recovered in

1QFY26

Consumer

Contribution to MOFSL universe profits (%)

5.2

5.0

5.2

4.5

5.2

5.1

4.6

PAT (INR b)

4.8

4.1

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Performance highlights of the Nifty constituents in 1QFY26

The top 5 stocks account for ~77% of the incremental profit YoY



Sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth for Nifty constituents was in line at +6%/+10%/

+7%/+8% YoY in 1QFY26. Excluding Metals & O&G, profits for Nifty constituents

were up 9% YoY (vs. our est. of +4% YoY).

Among Nifty constituents, 48% exceeded our PAT estimates, while 14% missed

our estimates.

SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, JSW Steel, M&M, L&T, Tata Steel, Adani Ports,

Hindalco, NTPC, Titan, Bharat Electronics, Apollo Hospitals, Cipla, Bajaj Auto,

Eicher Motors, Trent, HDFC Life Insurance, Maruti Suzuki, Dr Reddy’s Lab, and

Hero Motocorp delivered higher-than-estimated earnings.

In contrast, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corp, Nestle, Eternal,

Kotak Mahindra Bank, and HCL Technologies missed our profit estimates.

Only four Nifty companies witnessed earnings upgrades of over 3% in their FY26

EPS estimates, while 11 companies witnessed downgrades of over 3%.

Exhibit 35: Nifty EBITDA up 10% YoY (est. 6%)

Exhibit 34: Nifty sales up 6% YoY (in line) in 1QFY26

27 25

-3

-24

7 7 7 8 8 4 7 7

17 16 19

11 14 11

9 13 9 8 9

-13

Exhibit 36: Nifty PAT up 8% YoY (est. 5%)

115

9 18

27 24 32

13 12 15 22

23 19 14

9 7 4

Exhibit 37: Nifty EBITDA margin (ex-Financials) was

marginally down 10bp YoY to 20.9%

-36

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 38: Capital Goods, Metals, Cement, and Telecom to drive FY26E earnings for the Nifty

Sector

Automobiles

BFSI

Capital Goods

Cement

Consumer

Healthcare

Logistics

Metals

Oil & Gas

Retail

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Others

Nifty

FY23

287

2,026

134

115

366

164

540

1,069

977

321

6,213

Review 1QFY26 PAT (INR b)

FY24

FY25

FY26E

621

665

652

2,557

2,829

3,032

170

200

239

134

110

147

416

390

414

204

234

247

108

135

595

600

739

1,261

1,081

1,135

1,009

1,101

1,173

113

176

275

341

352

417

7,595

7,946

8,724

FY27E

732

3,615

285

183

462

276

158

921

1,232

1,269

389

450

10,128

FY23

281

-11

-42

Loss

-487

Growth YoY (%)

FY24

FY25

FY26E

117

-2

-18

-6

-14

123

FY27E

Exhibit 39: Sectoral upgrades/downgrades for the MOFSL Universe

PAT (INR b) - preview

Sector

FY26E

FY27E

Automobiles

981

1,134

Capital Goods

440

525

Cement

245

309

Chemicals

108

Consumer

640

719

Consumer Durables

EMS

Financials

5,288

6,279

Banks-Private

1,902

2,319

Banks-PSU

1,611

1,859

Insurance

629

719

NBFC - Lending

1,003

1,211

NBFC - Non Lending

143

171

Healthcare

591

681

Infrastructure

Logistics

180

212

Media

Metals

1,239

1,539

Oil & Gas

1,943

1,982

Excl. OMCs

1,478

1,617

Real Estate

193

218

Retail

132

166

Staffing

Technology

1,322

1,446

Telecom

203

Utilities

536

596

Others

262

359

MOFSL Universe

14,293

16,665

Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit

PAT (INR b) - review

FY26E

FY27E

983

1,135

447

523

247

310

106

637

720

5,279

6,298

1,865

2,290

1,630

1,911

629

719

1,010

1,206

145

171

582

669

178

211

1,238

1,545

1,803

1,860

1,387

1,520

195

221

132

164

1,320

1,441

213

515

587

256

352

14,111

16,544

Upgrade/downgrade (%)

FY26E

FY27E

0.2

0.1

1.6

-0.4

0.7

0.4

-0.8

-1.9

-0.5

0.1

-0.1

-1.4

2.1

7.4

-0.2

0.3

-2.0

-1.3

1.2

2.8

0.1

0.0

0.7

-0.4

1.0

0.5

-1.6

-1.8

2.6

0.3

-1.1

-0.4

-5.0

-5.7

-0.1

0.4

-7.2

-6.1

-6.0

1.2

1.3

-0.5

-1.2

-2.1

-2.7

-0.1

-0.3

1.9

4.9

-3.9

-1.5

-2.3

-1.9

-1.3

-0.7

Growth YoY (%)

FY25

FY26E

FY27E

7.0

0.7

15.5

23.4

19.3

16.9

-27.2

45.5

25.5

-3.4

28.4

24.5

-1.8

9.5

13.1

27.9

15.9

20.1

66.8

53.2

54.2

13.5

7.8

19.3

6.5

5.0

22.8

23.4

2.1

17.2

19.3

9.8

14.2

6.3

22.0

19.4

31.3

17.0

18.6

21.2

10.9

15.1

3.1

29.5

34.0

19.2

22.7

18.6

-3.3

13.3

10.8

16.4

19.1

24.8

-31.6

9.4

3.2

-14.9

3.8

9.6

42.8

41.0

12.9

9.3

30.9

24.2

47.8

26.6

18.4

8.7

7.8

9.2

Loss

219.0

8.1

18.1

14.0

7.2

46.8

37.8

3.7

12.1

17.2

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 40: Nifty delivered an 8% YoY profit growth in 1QFY26

Company

Sales

Jun Chg. YoY Var.

2025

(%)

-3

-8

-9

-8

-3

-6

-2

-1

-2

-6

-1

-4

EBITDA

Jun Chg. YoY Var.

2025

(%)

278

429

187

103

305

357

100

169

115

187

111

3,802

2,846

-17

-1

-9

-11

-7

-5

-1

-4

-37

-11

-35

-5

-2

-5

-17

-6

-1

-3

-1

-12

-3

-5

-6

-3

-11

-57

PBT

Jun Chg. YoY Var.

2025

(%)

105

282

169

258

213

170

107

116

-2

2,755

2,130

128

-2

-6

-4

-6

-7

-9

-10

-18

-37

-34

-72

-63

Loss

-1

-6

-1

-5

-6

PAT

Jun Chg. YoY Var.

2025

(%)

181

128

192

182

128

158

103

-4

-5

-6

-7

-10

-13

-20

-28

-50

-72

-90

Loss

-3

-2

-10

-6

-3

-1

-6

-10

-13

-91

Loss

EBIDTA Margin

Jun

Chg.

2025 (%) YoY bp

17.6

56.3

14.0

11.1

20.7

14.6

14.5

14.3

32.5

9.9

60.2

28.1

17.5

83.0

12.3

17.6

86.6

6.1

5.4

24.2

74.4

113.7

19.5

12.7

25.6

23.9

29.1

72.6

23.7

26.6

19.7

138.6

31.7

25.2

10.4

81.8

14.4

84.9

22.5

18.2

76.6

19.9

58.3

21.9

31.0

9.3

15.1

55.3

1.6

4.2

27.2

30.8

4.7

5.1

1.7

4.7

1.3

2.5

-0.5

2.9

-0.3

-0.8

5.8

2.2

-0.1

-0.9

0.9

4.7

-0.1

-0.2

-3.9

10.1

33.6

-0.3

-2.6

-0.1

-2.7

0.9

-1.0

-0.3

-0.1

-0.5

-70.9

-4.9

-2.6

-2.3

-5.1

0.0

9.8

-1.3

-0.7

-0.1

-0.7

5.1

-1.4

-0.6

-5.0

0.5

-17.7

-2.6

-0.5

1.1

High PAT growth

JSW Steel

431

Bharti Airtel

495

Tata Steel

532

-3

Titan Company

165

Ultratech Cement

213

Apollo Hospitals

Tech Mahindra

134

Mahindra & Mahindra

341

Bajaj Finserv

286

Larsen & Toubro

637

Adani Ports

Bharat Electronics

Trent

Bajaj Finance

102

Hindalco

642

Med/Low PAT growth

Reliance Inds.

2,436

ICICI Bank

216

SBI Life Insurance

178

HDFC Life Insur.

149

NTPC

426

-4

State Bank

411

HDFC Bank

314

Wipro

221

Tata Consumer

Cipla

Eicher Motors

Sun Pharma

138

Shriram Finance

Infosys

423

TCS

634

Bajaj Auto

126

Jio Financial

ITC

215

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

Maruti Suzuki

384

Power Grid Corp.

-1

Hero Motocorp

-6

Negative PAT Growth

Axis Bank

136

Hind. Unilever

165

Asian Paints

Kotak Mahindra Bank

HCL Technologies

303

ONGC

320

-9

Nestle

Coal India

358

-2

Tata Motors

1,044

-3

Adani Enterprises

220

-14

IndusInd Bank

-14

Eternal

Grasim Industries

Nifty Universe

13,970

Nifty Ex Metals & Oil

9,249

Note: PL: Profit to loss; LP: Loss to profit

-5

-1

-6

-9

-10

-65

Loss

-1

2,003

1,571

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

MOFSL coverage revisions from our preview stance

Cuts in small-caps severe



MOFSL Universe experiences a cut of 1.3%/0.7% for FY26E/FY27E:

Our MOFSL

Universe witnessed a cut of 1.3% for FY26E, led by Oil & Gas, Private Banks,

Utilities, and Healthcare.

Further, our mid-cap universe saw an upgrade of 1.7% for FY26E, and small-cap

universes experienced a bigger cut at 4% in FY26E. The large-cap universe

witnessed a cut of 1.5%.

Exhibit 41: Earnings revisions of MOFSL Universe from our preview stance (1QFY26)

Sector

Automobiles

Banks-Private

Banks-PSU

Insurance

NBFC - Lending

NBFC - Non Lending

Capital Goods

Cement

Chemicals

Consumer

Consumer Durables

EMS

Healthcare

Infrastructure

Logistics

Media

Metals

Oil & Gas

Real Estate

Retail

Staffing

Technology

Telecom

Utilities

Others

MOFSL Universe

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Small Cap

PAT (INR b) @ Preview

FY26E

FY27E

981

1,134

1,902

2,319

1,611

1,859

629

719

1,003

1,211

143

171

440

525

245

309

108

640

719

591

681

180

212

1,239

1,539

1,943

1,982

193

218

132

166

1,322

1,446

203

536

596

262

359

14,293

16,665

11,840

13,557

1,736

2,165

717

943

PAT (INR b) @ Review

FY26E

FY27E

983

1,135

1,865

2,290

1,630

1,911

629

719

1,010

1,206

145

171

447

523

247

310

106

637

720

582

669

178

211

1,238

1,545

1,803

1,860

195

221

132

164

1,320

1,441

213

515

587

256

352

14,111

16,544

11,658

13,424

1,765

2,194

688

926

% Revision

FY26E

FY27E

0.2

0.1

-2.0

-1.3

1.2

2.8

0.1

0.0

0.7

-0.4

1.0

0.5

1.6

-0.4

0.7

0.4

-0.8

-1.9

-0.5

0.1

-0.1

-1.4

2.1

7.4

-1.6

-1.8

2.6

0.3

-1.1

-0.4

-5.0

-5.7

-0.1

0.4

-7.2

-6.1

1.2

1.3

-0.5

-1.2

-2.1

-2.7

-0.1

-0.3

1.9

4.9

-3.9

-1.5

-2.3

-1.9

-1.3

-0.7

-1.5

-1.0

1.7

1.4

-4.0

-1.8

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Nifty EPS cut by 1.2%/0.9% for FY26E/FY27E



The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 was cut by 1.2% to INR1,108, largely owing to

ONGC, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Power Grid Corp, and HDFC Bank. FY27E

EPS was also reduced by 0.9% to INR1,296 (from INR1,308) due to downgrades

in ONGC, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Eternal, and Power Grid Corp.

EPS Upgrade /

Downgrade (%)

FY26E

FY27E

9.7

3.1

6.5

6.9

3.8

-0.2

3.5

2.3

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.9

-0.9

1.9

1.4

1.1

0.1

0.9

-0.1

0.8

1.0

0.8

-0.4

0.8

-0.9

0.8

0.3

0.7

1.2

0.7

-0.1

0.4

2.8

0.4

-1.4

0.2

1.1

0.1

0.0

-1.0

0.0

-0.2

1.3

-0.2

0.2

-0.4

0.0

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

0.0

-0.9

-0.4

-1.0

-3.4

-1.0

0.0

-1.4

0.3

-1.7

0.0

-1.7

-2.9

-1.9

1.0

-2.7

-1.7

-3.4

-6.2

-3.6

-0.7

-3.6

-4.4

-3.7

0.7

-3.8

-2.3

-3.9

-1.5

-5.1

-3.6

-5.3

-4.2

-8.7

-7.2

-10.2

-11.3

-35.4

-26.5

-1.2

-0.9

Exhibit 42: FY26E EPS revisions – Four Nifty constituents saw upgrades of over 3%, while 11 witnessed downgrades of over 3%

Company

Tata Consumer

Apollo Hospitals

Eicher Motors

Hero MotoCorp

IndusInd Bank

Wipro

ICICI Bank

Titan Company

Maruti Suzuki

Bajaj Auto

Larsen & Toubro

State Bank

Infosys

Grasim Industries

JSW Steel

TCS

Mahindra & Mahindra

Hindalco

ITC

Ultratech Cement

SBI Life Insurance

Bharat Electronics

NTPC

Coal India

Tech Mahindra

Tata Motors

Asian Paints

Tata Steel

Adani Ports

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

Bajaj Finance

Bharti Airtel

Hind. Unilever

HDFC Life Insur.

HDFC Bank

Shriram Finance

Trent

HCL Technologies

Reliance Inds.

Cipla

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Nestle

Sun Pharma

Power Grid Corp.

Axis Bank

ONGC

Eternal

Nifty (50)

FY25

14.0

100.6

172.7

226.0

33.1

12.5

66.8

42.3

443.9

299.5

106.8

86.9

63.8

74.1

15.6

134.2

98.7

74.8

16.0

207.6

24.1

7.2

20.3

57.4

47.9

63.2

42.5

3.4

50.2

67.3

27.0

30.3

44.3

8.4

88.0

44.0

43.2

63.9

51.5

62.8

111.3

16.0

47.1

16.7

85.3

30.6

0.6

1,013

Current EPS (INR)

FY26E

16.8

128.3

179.0

247.6

40.6

12.6

72.6

54.6

488.6

322.4

130.5

89.4

68.6

86.0

49.0

142.7

119.5

69.9

17.1

305.6

27.6

8.2

25.8

57.7

61.3

45.8

45.4

8.7

62.7

66.9

33.0

47.4

45.9

9.8

94.3

49.9

51.3

67.0

57.7

61.8

105.2

16.9

51.2

18.0

80.5

28.2

1.2

1,108

FY27E

19.8

164.5

195.4

269.1

57.1

13.1

84.4

64.2

539.0

360.8

155.1

101.1

72.6

106.9

75.0

152.6

136.7

72.7

18.6

382.8

32.1

9.8

28.0

67.3

78.3

51.9

54.1

13.0

73.1

63.1

42.4

63.9

51.5

11.4

113.9

59.9

60.8

75.9

63.5

65.8

127.2

19.4

61.1

19.1

101.3

29.7

3.9

1,296

EPS Growth (%)

FY25

-2.4

61.1

18.0

10.5

-71.4

22.8

14.4

7.6

5.6

11.8

13.0

15.6

0.8

-22.5

-57.7

6.3

11.3

63.9

-2.5

-15.1

27.4

31.5

6.2

-5.5

17.1

7.7

-26.7

41.5

21.6

6.1

15.5

54.2

1.4

14.9

9.9

14.9

47.7

10.3

0.0

19.6

21.5

-22.1

13.4

-0.3

5.7

-31.9

44.2

1.3

FY26E

20.2

27.6

3.7

9.5

22.7

1.0

8.7

29.1

10.1

7.6

22.2

2.8

7.5

16.1

214.6

6.3

21.0

-6.6

6.9

47.2

14.5

13.6

26.7

0.6

27.9

-27.6

6.8

157.3

24.9

-0.6

22.4

56.6

3.4

17.1

7.1

13.3

19.0

4.9

12.1

-1.6

-5.4

5.5

8.6

7.7

-5.7

-7.7

101.5

9.4

FY27E

17.4

28.2

9.2

8.7

40.8

3.9

16.3

17.6

10.3

11.9

18.9

13.1

5.8

24.3

53.3

6.9

14.5

4.0

8.8

25.3

16.2

19.6

8.8

16.5

27.7

13.4

19.2

50.0

16.6

-5.7

28.2

34.7

12.3

16.7

20.8

20.2

18.4

13.2

10.0

6.6

20.8

14.9

19.3

6.4

25.9

5.3

228.6

16.9

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 43: We estimate a 13% CAGR for the Nifty free-float PAT over FY25–27

Company

High PAT Growth (20%+)

Eternal

JSW Steel

Tata Steel

Bharti Airtel

Ultratech Cement

IndusInd Bank

Bajaj Finserv

Apollo Hospitals

Tech Mahindra

Bajaj Finance

Titan Company

Adani Ports

Larsen & Toubro

Grasim Industries

Medium PAT Growth (0-20%)

Tata Consumer

Trent

Mahindra & Mahindra

NTPC

HDFC Life Insur.

Shriram Finance

Bharat Electronics

SBI Life Insurance

Sun Pharma

HDFC Bank

Asian Paints

ICICI Bank

Reliance Inds.

Maruti Suzuki

Nestle

Bajaj Auto

State Bank

Hero MotoCorp

Axis Bank

HCL Technologies

Coal India

ITC

Hind. Unilever

Power Grid Corp.

Kotak Mahindra Bank

TCS

Infosys

Eicher Motors

Wipro

Cipla

Jio Financial

Adani Enterprises

PAT de-growth (<0%)

ONGC

Hindalco

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

Tata Motors

Nifty (PAT free float)

Sales

CAGR %

25-27

-2

-9

EBIDTA Margin (%)

FY25

189

FY26E

189

FY27E

189

EBITDA

CAGR %

25-27

138

-1

PAT (INR b)

FY25

1,003

176

168

108

147

6,104

119

197

113

673

472

696

140

776

264

174

354

200

104

155

221

488

265

131

839

384

166

233

4,591

FY26E

1,461

119

108

275

128

205

135

179

6,529

143

250

123

721

517

780

154

811

249

182

356

214

108

167

209

519

285

133

734

355

155

168

5,021

FY27E

1,931

183

162

389

113

150

263

158

213

7,419

164

272

113

147

872

601

859

169

100

933

314

206

415

232

121

178

253

555

301

138

779

374

161

191

5,871

PAT

CAGR %

25-27

157

120

-4

-1

-3

-9

Contbn to

Delta %

-3

-2

100

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

PAT growth YoY in FY26E (%)

FY26E PAT growth YoY (%)

33.6

21.4

FY26E earnings highlights: Global commodities, NBFC-Lending,

Telecom, and Technology to drive the incremental earnings



12.1

9.8



MOFSL

Univ.

Large Mid Cap Small

Cap



The MOFSL Universe is likely to deliver sales/EBITDA/ PAT growth of 4%/11%/12%

YoY in FY26. The Financials, Metals, and Oil & Gas sectors are projected to be the

key growth engines, with 8%, 19%, and 9% YoY earnings growth, respectively. These

three sectors are likely to contribute 48% to the incremental YoY accretion in

earnings.

Further, we categorized the coverage stocks, based on market capitalization, into

large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap segments.

Notably, our large-cap universe is likely to deliver a 10% YoY earnings growth in

FY26E, while mid-cap is estimated to deliver a 21% YoY growth, and small-cap is

estimated to deliver a 34% YoY growth in FY26E.

Exhibit 44: Metals, Oil & Gas, NBFCs, Telecom, and Technology to lead the incremental profits for FY26E (PAT, INR b)

72 57 57 56 55 33

199 182 155 95 95

82 79 77

33 31

21 19

Exhibit 45: Delta contribution to FY26E profit for the MOFSL Universe (%)

Delta Contribution (%)

Exhibit 46: Sector-wise FY26E performance (%) – Telecom, EMS, and Cement the leaders

FY26E PAT growth YoY (%)

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

MOFSL Universe sees 14% earnings downgrade for FY26E on a

TTM basis

Telecom and Oil & Gas experience downgrades



Over the last one year, earnings revisions for the MOFSL Universe saw a cut of

14%.

Telecom, Oil & Gas, Retail, Automobiles, and Cement witnessed significant

earnings downgrades, while only two sectors experienced upgrades.

Exhibit 47: Telecom, Oil & Gas, and Retail witnessed downgrades over the last one year

-3

-5

% revision in PAT

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14

-17

-18

-19

-23

-26

-36

-54

Note: Comparable MOFSL Universe of 264 companies

Exhibit 48: Annual Sales/EBITDA/PAT estimates for the MOFSL Universe

Sales (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

Sector

FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

Automobiles

13,717 15,052

Capital Goods

4,910

5,606

Cement

2,716

3,034

Chemicals

735

831

Consumer

3,906

4,277

Consumer Durables

851

984

EMS

799

1,078

Financials

18,377 20,967

Banks-Private

3,893

4,632

Banks-PSU

3,664

4,211

Insurance

8,505

9,375

NBFC - Lending

1,997

2,377

NBFC - Non Lending

319

371

Healthcare

3,883

4,323

Infrastructure

191

231

-9

Logistics

748

863

Media

192

206

-5

Metals

12,714 14,087

Oil & Gas

33,274 33,505

-8

Excl. OMCs

18,695 19,359

-6

Real Estate

754

891

Retail

2,727

3,183

Staffing

460

522

Technology

8,370

8,916

Telecom

3,166

3,514

Utilities

3,753

4,184

Others

3,352

3,979

MOFSL Universe

1,19,596 1,30,232 6

EBITDA (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

1,684 1,948

656

761

458

554

-14

144

174

899 1,006

109

8,301 9,684 14

3,048 3,560 10

2,588 2,959 16

862 1,008 13

1,625 1,946 18

177

212

936 1,055 19

-2

291

338

-13

2,517 2,935 13

4,162 4,331 -17

3,248 3,498

-4

232

263

296

348

1,901 2,074

1,630 1,819 20

1,363 1,527

604

728

26,325 29,855 6

PAT (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

FY26E FY27E FY25 FY26E FY27E

983 1,135

447

523

247

310

-27

106

-3

637

720

-2

5,279 6,298 14

1,865 2,290

1,630 1,911 23

629

719

1,010 1,206

145

171

582

669

178

211

-3

1,238 1,545 16

1,803 1,860 -32

1,387 1,520 -15

195

221

132

164

1,320 1,441

213 Loss

219

515

587

256

352

14,111 16,544 4

Source: MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

SECTOR-WISE:

Highlights / Surprise / Guidance

AUTOS: Demand lags expectations in most sectors except for tractors



Two wheelers underperformed expectations in 1Q:

The auto segment (excluding tractors) recorded a 6% YoY

decline in domestic volumes in 1Q, as urban regions continued to witness weak demand. The underperformance

was largely driven by 2Ws, which saw an 8% YoY decline in volumes in 1Q. Further, both PVs and CVs posted a

1% YoY decline in volumes in 1Q. Three wheelers posted flat volumes YoY in 1Q. Only the tractors segment saw a

healthy 9% YoY growth in volumes. Within 2Ws, motorcycles declined 9%, and scooters recorded a 5% YoY

decline. In fact, within motorcycles, except for the >250cc segment, all other segments recorded a decline in

volumes. Within PVs, car volumes declined 11% YoY, while UV volume growth slowed to 4% YoY in 1Q. UV’s

contribution in PVs has increased to 66% in 1Q. Further, within CVs, the MHCV goods segment declined 4.5%

YoY, while the LCV goods segment declined 1% YoY. Only the bus segment recorded an 8% YoY growth.

Operational performance for the coverage universe has largely been in line:

For our coverage universe, total

revenue grew 4% YoY and was in line with our estimates. Auto OEMs posted a 3% YoY growth in revenues, while

the auto ancillary universe posted a 6% YoY growth. However, excluding Tata Motors (which posted a 3.4%

decline YoY), the OEM universe posted a stronger 9% revenue growth, driven largely by an improved mix and

price hikes taken to offset cost pressures. While most OEMs posted in-line revenue growth, MSIL outperformed

our estimates, supported by improved ASP. On the operational front, Hyundai and MSIL posted better-than-

expected margins in 1Q. Aggregate earnings growth for our OEM coverage universe (excluding TTMT) stood at

10% and was ahead of our estimates, led primarily by higher other income, which was largely attributed to MTM

gains. Among auto ancillaries, CIE Automotive, Craftsman Auto, and Exide posted better-than-expected

operational performance.

Coverage companies likely to deliver modest earnings growth in FY26E:

At the start of the fiscal year, the

industry body projected PVs to grow in low single digits (2-4%), CVs to grow in mid single digits, and 2Ws to grow

in high single digits. Moreover, according to tractor OEMs, the industry is likely to post high single-digit growth in

FY26, driven by positive rural sentiment. However, most segments, excluding tractors, are currently lagging

growth expectations. After the first four months of FY26, the domestic 2W industry witnessed a 4% YoY decline,

with PVs declining 1% YoY and CVs remaining flat YoY. Only the tractors segment continued to grow in line with

expectations. Further, most OEMs have cautioned that a gradual rise in input cost inflation may dent margins in

the near term. Export-focused auto ancillary companies are now facing an uncertain demand environment due

to tariff-led uncertainties in key regions. Given these factors, FY26 is expected to deliver modest earnings growth

for most companies under our coverage.

The sector witnessed slight moderation in earnings:

Post 1Q, there have been no material changes in earnings

within our coverage universe. In fact, none of the OEMs within our coverage universe has seen any major

earnings change post 1Q. Auto ancillary companies that witnessed an earnings cut for FY26 include APTY (10%),

BHFC (12%), SAMIL (9%), and MSWIL (7%). On the other hand, auto ancillaries that saw earnings upgrades post

1Q include Bosch (7%) and CIE Automotive (+6.5%).

Valuation and view:

As highlighted above, the earnings outlook for the sector appears benign, given the modest

volume growth outlook and risk of rising input cost pressure. Further, the recent stock market rally has led to

the re-rating of valuation multiples for most companies under our coverage. Given these factors, we prefer to

align with companies that are expected to outperform in their respective segments. MSIL and MM are our top

OEM picks. Among ancillaries, we prefer ENDU and MOTHERSO.

Surprises:

MSIL, Hyundai, BOS, CIE, Craftsman, Exide

Misses:

BIL, BHFC, MSWIL, MRF, SAMIL, TTMT

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Guidance highlights:



MSIL:

In 1Q, domestic PV demand declined 1.4% YoY, but Maruti Suzuki expects a revival in 2Q-3Q, driven by

festive demand, rural sentiment, and two upcoming SUV launches (e-Vitara and a new ICE model). Exports grew

37% YoY to INR65b, far outperforming the industry, and are expected to strengthen further with the global

rollout of e-Vitara to ~100 regions. Dealer inventory remained normal at 33 days with stable discounts, though

the availability of rare earth magnets remains a supply challenge.



MM:

Auto –

Revenue market share rose 570bp YoY to 27.3%, with LCV (<3.5T) share up 340bp to 54.2%. The

company maintains its FY26 UV growth guidance of mid-to-high teens, supported by strong demand across

models. It has sufficient rare earth inventory for two quarters and is exploring substitutes to reduce supply risk.

Tractors –

M&M’s tractor market share improved 50bp YoY to 45.2% in 1Q, with management focusing on

reasonable growth without diluting margins.



Hyundai (HMI):

HMI has maintained its FY26 export growth guidance at 6-7%, even as domestic PV demand

remains weak. Management expects a recovery, supported by a 100bp interest rate cut, festive demand, and

healthy monsoons. SUVs accounted for 69% of sales (68.8% rural penetration), and the higher CNG/EV mix has

enabled the company to exceed its 1Q CAFÉ target (112.856 vs 117.286). Localization rose to 82% (from 78% in

2024), with a continued focus on EV-related components.



TTMT:

JLR –

Global luxury demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainty. However, management expects

stabilization once tariffs are finalized. Regionally, demand remains strong in the US, stable in the UK, weak in

China, and uncertain in Europe. FY26 EBIT margin guidance is maintained at 5-7%, with near-zero FCF.

CV -

Management expects the CV industry to grow in single digits in 2Q on a low base, with demand improving in 2H

on account of normal monsoons and festive season build-up, maintaining its FY26 volume growth guidance at

5%.

PV –

PV sales are expected to witness low single-digit growth in FY26, contingent on a recovery in the

second half, driven by the festive season, after flat retail sales in the first four months and a 3% decline over the

last two months. ICE margins face near-term pressure but are expected to recover in the medium term, with a

long-term goal of achieving a double-digit EBITDA margin in the PV business.



BJAUT:

Domestic 2W -

Management sees potential for 5-6% industry growth in the coming months and plans to

use currency benefits from INR depreciation to regain domestic market share, though EV production remains

constrained by rare earth shortages.

2W Exports –

While growth guidance has not been specifically quantified,

export momentum could benefit indirectly from improved currency trends.

Input costs:

Net material costs are

expected to remain largely flat QoQ in 2Q, with some currency benefits from INR depreciation.



HMCL:

Management expects to outperform the 6-7% industry growth in FY26, driven by multiple launches,

including two 125cc bikes, Xoom 160, Xtreme 125R refresh, and new Harley models. It targets 40% export

growth and a 10% medium-term revenue share, and has secured rare earth supplies for 2Q.



TVSL:

Domestic retail sales grew ~9% YoY in 1QFY26 (rural +10%), with 2W ICE rising ~8% YoY. Management

expects this momentum to continue in FY26, supported by strong rural demand drivers. Exports saw a recovery

in Africa; steady growth in LATAM, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; gradual improvement in Bangladesh; and stable

performance in the Middle East, with adequate rare earth magnet supplies secured for the short term.



EIM:

Royal Enfield volumes rose 14.7% YoY in 1Q, led by 41% export and 11.8% domestic growth, with rural

share of 50%. Meanwhile, VECV’s EBITDA margin expanded 140bp YoY to 9%, driven by a better mix and lower

discounts.



SAMIL:

EBITDA margin contracted to 8.1% (vs 9.6% YoY) due to weakness in Europe, FX volatility, and greenfield

start-up costs. However, management expects recovery from 2H, as cost cuts and ramp-ups take effect. Three

plants commenced in 1Q, with 11 more under development. Consumer electronics capacity is expected to reach

16-17m units p.a. by FY26-end. Capex guidance stands at INR60b, and the impact of US tariffs is expected to be

minimal.



BIL:

Europe volumes declined 20% YoY due to weak farm sentiment. Input costs remained stable QoQ, while the

Euro-INR rate stood at 93.6. Management has maintained its FY26 margin guidance at 24-25% without

specifying any volume guidance due to demand uncertainty. It plans to enter niche premium PCR/TBR segments

with SOP targeted for Jun’26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 49: Key operating indicators - OEMs

FY26

1,111

1,367

1,277

528

180

361

266

5,487

Volumes ('000 units)

YoY

FY25

(%)

FY25

1,102

1,103

1,535

-11

1,381

1,087

1,216

522

605

192

-6

192

315

319

227

283

5405

1.5

5,578

QoQ

(%)

-1

-13

-6

-25

-6

-1.6

FY26

19.7

14.4

12.5

10.4

13.3

14.3

11.1

25.1

11.7

EBITDA Margins (%)

Adj PAT (INR M)

YoY

4Q QoQ

YoY 4Q FY25 QoQ

FY25 (bp) FY25 (bp) FY26

FY25

(%)

20.2

-50

20.2 -50 20,960 19,884

20,492

14.4

14.2

20 11,257 11,226

10,809

11.5

110

14.0 -140 7,786

5,773

8,521

-9

12.7

-230

10.5 -10 37,117 36,499

37,111

13.5

-20

14.1 -80 13,692 14,897

-8 16,143 -15

14.9

-50

14.9 -60 34,498 26,126 32 24,371 42

10.6

15.0 -390 5,937

5,256

13 12,562 -53

27.9

-280

24.7

40 13,065 10,880 20 11,251 16

14.4 -260

12.8 -100 186,697 188,703 -1.1 235,050 -20.6

** PBT instead of PAT; JLR in GBP m; Source: MOFSL, Company

Bajaj Auto

Hero MotoCorp

TVS Motor

Maruti Suzuki

Hyundai

M&M

Ashok Leyland

Eicher - RE

Aggregate **

Exhibit 50: Aggregate EBITDA margin for OEM (excluding TTMT) contracted YoY due to

higher costs and weak demand

Aggregate (excl. JLR)

14.2

13.8

14.4

12.8

14.0

12.3

11.2

8.1

8.4

9.8

7.6

9.7

11.5

12.3

12.9

13.4

12.9

CAPITAL GOODS AND DEFENSE: Broadly in-line performance, barring a few misses



Ordering to accelerate on strong prospects:

Order inflow growth for the capital goods sector was better than

our expectations. It was particularly buoyed by the continued momentum in power T&D and renewable space.

Overall, EPC companies' inflows jumped 28% YoY, with LT and KPIL witnessing strong double-digit YoY growth on

the back of domestic and global wins. However, KEC experienced a temporary slowdown due to timing and

bidding discipline. For product companies such as TMX and TRIV, geopolitical headwinds tempered international

order activity. The private capex-driven ordering has been weak for ABB, SIEM, and TMX. Base ordering was

muted, but prospects remain strong for the remaining quarters. The Indian defense pipeline will remain strong

in the near term on account of emergency procurement, as well as for the medium-to-long term, led by both

base and large orders. Overall, the pipeline from cement, steel, petrochemicals, waste-to-energy, sugar, etc., is

yet to fructify into firm orders, while select sectors such as power T&D, renewable energy, data centers, real

estate, defense, etc., continue to witness healthy traction.

Execution growth in line:

Overall execution of our coverage universe was broadly in line with our estimates and

increased 15% YoY (vs. our estimates of 14%). This was aided by healthy opening order books, with EPC

companies posting 16% growth and product companies recording 12% YoY growth. Renewable companies’

revenue rose 16% YoY, and defense companies' revenue grew 7% YoY. ZEN reported weak revenue growth,

while TMX’s revenue growth was muted. However, the rest of the companies within our coverage universe

reported healthy YoY growth.

Margin flat YoY on benign commodity prices:

Overall margins were broadly in line with our estimates at ~12%

(vs 11.8% in 1QFY25). Change in revenue mix led to a small contraction in margins for EPC (9.6% in 1QFY26 vs

9.8% in 1QFY25) and product companies (14.2% in 1QFY26 vs 15.0% in 1QFY25), while renewables benefited

from execution of high-margin transmission orders, with margin expanding 600bp YoY to 15.2%. 1QFY26 is a

seasonally weak quarter for defense companies, though margins improved ~400bp YoY, led by strong execution

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



as well as higher indigenization. Notable examples include ENRIN, POWERIND, KKC, KOEL (adj. margins), TMX,

LT, KECI, and BHE, which reported healthy margin expansion in 1QFY26, while LT and KPIL were broadly flat. In

contrast, TRIV, SIEM, ABB, and ZEN reported a YoY contraction in margins.

Exports continue to improve:

LT reported a good uptick in international ordering, while KOEL and KKC continued

to witness improvement in export revenue. Export order inflows, however, declined for TRIV. Given the global

uncertainty around tariffs, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors, the export trajectory needs to be

monitored closely.

Top picks:

With the recent correction in stock prices, we remain positive on LT, BHE, and KKC.

Surprises:

BHE, LT, KEC, KKC, KPIL, TMX, KOEL, and HAL.

Misses:

TRIV, SIEM, ABB, and ZEN.

Guidance highlights:

Most of the management teams were confident about a strong prospect pipeline on the expected recovery of

government and private capex across sectors.



LT:

FY26 order inflow growth guidance of 10% YoY, with a prospect pipeline of INR15t for the remaining nine

months (+65% YoY), revenue growth of 15% YoY, and margin guidance of 8.3%-8.5%.



BHE:

FY26 revenue growth of 15%, margin guidance of 27%, and order inflow guidance of INR270b.



KKC:

Management maintained double-digit revenue growth guidance for FY26.



KOEL:

Maintained its aim of “2B2B” – to achieve a USD2b size by FY30; margins to improve.



KECI:

FY26 order inflow of INR300b, revenue of INR250b (+15% YoY), and EBITDA margin of 8.0%-8.5%



KPIL:

FY26 revenue growth of 20%-25%, PBT margin to be 5.0-5.5%. NWC to be below 100 days.



TRIV:

In FY26, both order inflows and revenue are expected to grow vs. FY25. Growth to be back-ended, with 1H

being flattish YoY, and 2H (especially 4Q) showing strong growth over last year.



Zen Tech:

Medium-term revenue CAGR guidance of 50% along with achieving a cumulative revenue of INR60b

over FY26-28. Margin guidance at 35% at the EBITDA level and 25% at the PAT level.

Exhibit 51: Aggregate order book (ex-Siemens) experiencing a steady build-up (INR b)

Order book (INR b)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 52: Aggregate revenue growth (%)

Capital Goods Revenue growth (%)

Exhibit 53: Aggregate EBITDA growth (%)

Capital goods EBITDA growth (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 54: Aggregate EBITDA margin (%)

Capital goods EBITDA margin (%)

Exhibit 55: Aggregate PAT growth (%)

Capital goods PAT growth (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

CEMENT: Volume growth in line; EBITDA/t at INR1,130 (vs. our estimate of INR1,100)



Sales volume rises ~8% YoY and blended realizations surge ~4%/3% YoY/QoQ:

Industry volume grew ~4-5%

YoY in 1QFY26, mainly driven by increased government capex towards road and highway constructions. The

aggregate volume for our cement coverage universe grew ~8% YoY (in line), aided by inorganic growth. Blended

realization increased ~4% YoY (up 3% QoQ) to INR5,570/t, which was ~1% above our estimates. Players having

higher exposures in the south and east regions have reported higher sequential improvement in realizations,

while players from the north and central regions have witnessed muted realizations QoQ. ACEM reported the

highest volume growth of ~20% YoY (aided by inorganic growth), followed by JKCE at ~16%, ACC at ~12%, ICEM

at ~11%, UTCEM at ~10% (aided by inorganic growth), and BCORP at ~9%. DALBHARA volume (adjusted for the

JPA volume of 0.4mt in the base) remained flat YoY in 1QFY26. Conversely, SRCM/TRCL posted a volume decline

of 7%/6% YoY. The aggregate revenue (ex-GRASIM) increased ~12% YoY to INR508.0b. GRASIM’s standalone

revenue rose ~34% YoY to INR92.2b in 1QFY26, supported by steady revenue gains in its new growth businesses

(Birla Opus and Birla Pivot combined revenue stood at INR24.6b, up ~13% QoQ). GRASIM’s VSF/chemical

segment’s revenue increased ~7%/16% YoY in 1QFY26.

Gross margin for our cement coverage improves 3pp YoY (up 1pp QoQ) to ~61%,

driven by improvement in

realizations and lower variable cost (average variable cost/t declined ~4% YoY to INR2,161; ~3% below estimate).

Total opex/t declined 2% YoY to INR4,439 (in line).

Aggregate EBITDA for our coverage companies increased

43% YoY (including GRASIM, which registered an EBITDA growth of ~18% YoY), and OPM surged 4.5pp YoY (up

65bp QoQ) to ~20% (in line with our estimate).

EBITDA increased by ~53%/46% for ACEM/UTCEM YoY, followed

by ~41%/40% for JKCE/JKLC. EBITDA of SRCM/DALBHARA/BCORP increased in the range of ~32%-34% YoY.

TRCL/ACC posted an EBITDA growth of 24%/14% YoY. ICEM reported EBITDA of INR819m vs. an operating loss of

INR310m in 1QFY25.

Average EBITDA/t increased 34% YoY at INR1,130 (vs. estimated INR1,100).

Aggregate PAT increases 58% YoY (ex-Grasim, PAT was up ~59%):

Aggregate interest/depreciation expenses for

our coverage universe grew 9%/20% YoY, while other income increased 7% YoY.

Aggregate profit increased 59%

YoY to INR46.5b for cement companies (profit up 58% YoY to INR45.3b, including GRASIM, as it posted a loss

of INR1.2b vs. a loss of INR521m in 1QFY25).

PAT surged 3.7x/2.4x YoY for BCORP/TRACL, followed by

~95%/86% for SRCM/JKLC, ~75%/66% for JKCE/DALBHARA, ~44% for UTCEM, ~15% for ACEM, and ~5% for ACC.

ICEM and GRASIM reported net losses during the quarter.

Aggregate earnings maintained, with a few upgrades and a few downgrades:

We maintained our aggregate

EBITDA/PAT estimates for our coverage universe for FY26/FY27. We upgraded our EBITDA for FY26 in DALBHARA

by 6% while we maintained the same for FY27. We raised our EBITDA estimates for FY26/FY27 by 5%/4% for

Grasim. We downgraded our rating on ACC to Neutral and cut our EBITDA estimates by 7%/2% for FY26/FY27.

We cut our EBITDA estimates by 6%/4% for TRCL for FY26/FY27 and by ~5% for BCORP for FY26 (FY27E retained).

We maintained our EBITDA estimates for UTCEM, ACEM, JKCE, JKLC, ICEM, and SRCM.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Top picks:

UTCEM remained our preferred pick in the large-cap space, and JKCE in the mid-cap space.

Surprises:

ACEM, ICEM, DALBHARA, and GRASIM

Misses:

ACC, BCORP, and TRCL

Guidance highlights:

Most of the management teams guided a demand growth of ~6–7% YoY in FY26, supported by government-led infra

projects (roads, highways, ports, metro, PMAY), a pickup in rural markets, and urban housing demand. Cement

prices remain resilient, despite the seasonality impact. The companies continue to focus on balancing volume

growth and profitability. Fuel prices have been range-bound over the past few months and are likely to remain at

these levels, aiding profitability.



UTCEM:

Management guided a double-digit volume growth in FY26. Further, the integration of acquired assets

(ICEM and Kesoram) is progressing well, with more focus on efficiency and productivity improvement. Fuel cost

was up QoQ in 1QFY26 due to an increase in blended fuel consumption costs. However, it expects fuel costs to

decline and remain range-bound going forward. It may announce the next phase of organic capacity expansion

during Dec’25-Mar’26.

ACEM:

It indicated a strong demand and pricing outlook, with cement demand estimated to grow ~7-8% YoY in

FY26 (vs. ~6-7% earlier). The cement price improved in 1QFY26, and it will continue to follow a good pricing

discipline. It is committed to achieving a total cost reduction of INR530/ton, with ~35-40% of the target already

realized. The capacity expansion remains on track, with grinding capacity standing at 104.5mtpa currently, and

another ~13mtpa will be commissioned in the remaining 9MFY26.

DALBHARA:

It indicated cement demand growth of ~6-7% YoY in FY26, despite a soft start to 1Q. Cement prices

in its core markets have seen a healthy recovery and held steady despite the monsoon season. It also laid out its

(clinker-backed) capacity expansion plan of 14.0-14.5mtpa across the South and Northeast markets to increase

its grinding capacity to ~64mtpa by FY28 from 49.5mtpa currently.

JKCE:

It highlighted that the Central and South regions propelled strong volume growth, while the North was weak.

The average cement price was flat QoQ, as strong pricing in the South was offset by pressure in Central and North.

JKCE maintained its FY26 grey cement volume guidance of 20mt and aims to achieve cost savings of INR40–50/t.

Capacity expansion at Panna and Bihar is progressing on schedule and is likely to be commissioned by Dec’25.

JKLC:

It guided its volume growth to be higher than the industry in FY26, aided by supplies in the new markets of

Uttar Pradesh and eastern Madhya Pradesh. For Durg expansion, it is likely to start placing orders for equipment

from 2Q and expects Phase I commissioning by Mar’27 (almost a six-month delay from the initial expectation of

Sep’26). The capex for the Durg expansion was also raised to INR30b (from INR25b) due to added equipment,

including a railway siding at the split GU and a cost escalation.

BCORP:

Management indicated that profitability was hit by the extended shutdown at the Maihar and

Mukutban plants, forcing BCORP to make clinker purchases from the market. Another factor was subdued

pricing in the central region. It is focusing on improving value share through premiumization and stronger brand

positioning rather than chasing volume share.

GRASIM:

It indicated that the paints business posted double-digit QoQ growth even as the broader organized

decorative paint industry remained sluggish. Notably, 65% of Birla Opus revenue is now derived from premium and

luxury paint products. The brand has expanded distribution to 8,000+ towns in a year. The B2B platform hosts over

40,000 SKUs across 35 categories, sourced from more than 300 vendors. The chemical business saw margin

improvements and stable demand, while VSF maintained healthy volumes, benefiting from operational stability.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 56: Our coverage sales volume was up ~8% YoY

Aggregate Vol (mt)

YoY change (%)

Exhibit 57: Blended realization increased 4% YoY in 1QFY26

Realization (INR/t)

15 9 10 10 16 13

(3)

8 10 8

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 58: Aggregate EBITDA increased 44% YoY in 1QFY26

Aggregate EBITDA (INR b)

-6

-26 -20 -18 -46

-6 -1

-5

-30 -28

YoY Change (%)

Exhibit 59: Average EBITDA/t was up 34% YoY in 1QFY26

Average EBITDA (INR/t)

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *EBITDA excluding Grasim

Source: Company, MOFSL

CHEMICALS: Double-digit EBITDA growth continues with margin expansions



Overall performance:

Revenue

came in below our estimates (GALSURF beat our expectations). EBITDA was also

broadly in line with estimates (FINEORG, TTCH, and VO beat our estimates, while NOCIL, DN, and BLUEJET fell

short). Adj. PAT was in line with our expectations (FINEORG, GALSURF, TTCH, and VO beat our estimates, while

AACL, ATPL, CLEAN, DN, NOCIL, and BLUEJET were below our estimates; NFIL, PI, and SRF were in line).

Aggregate revenue rose 5% YoY to INR173b, EBITDA rose 10% YoY at INR33.5b, and adj. PAT grew 17% YoY to

INR19.4b.

Aggregate gross margin for our coverage universe expanded 40bp YoY in 1QFY26, led by 710bp/57bp gross

margin expansion in VO/PI, while GALSUF’s and BLUEJET’s gross margins contracted 740bp and 620bp,

respectively. Aggregate EBITDA margin expanded 100bp YoY, led by margin expansion in BLUEJET, NFIL, SRF,

TTCH, and VO.

Ratings and earnings revisions:

There have been no changes in ratings across our coverage universe following

the 4QFY25 earnings season. We have revised down our FY26 and FY27 estimates for CLEAN, NOCIL, and

BLUEJET. For DN, we have cut our FY26 estimates while largely maintaining FY27 projections. We have upgraded

earnings estimates for FINE, while keeping estimates for the remaining companies under coverage unchanged.

Top picks:

SRF:

We expect the chemicals business (fluorochemicals and specialty chemicals) to continue its

growth momentum in FY26, fueled by: 1) the ramp-up of recently commissioned plants, 2) a strong order book,

3) stable demand for refrigerant gases, and 4) improved sales of PTFE. The packaging business is likely to report

better margins, driven by higher realizations of BOPP and a strong portfolio of high-impact, value-added

products. We value the stock on an SoTP basis to arrive at our TP of INR3,650.

VO:

VO has commissioned key

plants for MEHQ, Guaiacol, and other products. The company is now the largest antioxidants manufacturer in

India, and the long-term outlook for the segment remains positive on the back of a novel antioxidant for

lubricant additives, further strengthening the portfolio. The stock trades at ~27x FY27E EPS with a TP of INR2,180

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

(35x FY27E EPS), reflecting a healthy long-term growth outlook despite Chinese supply risks.

BLUEJET:

anticipate pharma intermediates and APIs to continue their robust growth momentum in FY26, supported by

strong customer demand visibility and additional product launches. Further, contrast media molecules are likely

to see growth driven by a ramp-up in client offtake, while high-intensity sweeteners are expected to sustain the

steady volume performance. We value the stock at 35x FY27E EPS to arrive at our TP of INR1,100.

Guidance highlights:



AACL:

The company reported muted operating performance and remains focused on strengthening its global

presence by developing efficient, cost-effective processes for high-grade and extra-pure specialty products,

enhancing the efficiency of existing processes.



ATLP:

The company is undertaking various projects and initiatives aimed at improving plant efficiencies,

expanding its capacities for key products, debottlenecking its existing capacities, capturing a higher market

share, and expanding its international presence.



BLUEJET:

The company is expanding into amino acid derivatives and late-stage intermediates, adding 1,000 KL

capacity over 2-3 years to support products like Bempedoic Acid API. Pharma intermediates and APIs remain

strong. Contrast media molecules are set to grow with higher client offtake, while high-intensity sweeteners are

likely to sustain steady volumes.



CLEAN:

Management has revised its EBITDA growth guidance to 15-18% (from 18-20%) due to softness in

1QFY26 and global headwinds, but expects a stronger ramp-up from 3QFY26 onwards. The company expects

revenue acceleration from 2HFY26, driven by new product launches, improved capacity utilization, operating

leverage, and market expansion.



DN:

Management expects merchant revenue of ~INR5.5b for the MIBK product (Methyl Isobutyl ketone).

Planned capex for FY26 stands at INR8b-10b. Peak debt is projected at INR70b-75b. For the polycarbonate

project, management anticipates a payback period of 5-5.5 years with an IRR of 16-18%.



GALSURF:

The company plans to maintain regular maintenance and debottlenecking capex of INR1.2-1.5b, with

no major new investments amid current market uncertainties. For FY26, management aims to sustain last year’s

4% growth rate, with a potential uptick to 6%, though achieving the typical 6-8% range would require a

meaningful demand recovery in India.



NFIL:

The company has observed strong performance in both the HPP and CDMO segments, with superior asset

turnover and EBITDA generation compared to the specialty chemicals segment. This trend is expected to

continue going forward. Overall, the FY26 outlook remains positive, with strong order visibility and volume-led

growth.



NOCIL:

The company is focused on expanding its capacity, with the new facility expected to come online in

2HFY27, alongside the commercialization of new products by year-end. The company is also working on

diversifying its geographical presence beyond the US into regions such as Europe, Asia, and Latin America to

mitigate uncertainties related to US tariffs.



PI:

PI Industries anticipates a recovery in 2H, led by resumed export momentum, domestic demand, and

normalization in biologicals. It maintains single-digit FY26 revenue growth guidance with sustained margins,

reaffirming the earlier 50-52% range despite high gross margins in 1Q, which were largely driven by a favorable

product mix.



TTCH:

While soda ash markets remain oversupplied—with high inventories and tariff-related trade uncertainties

keeping near-term demand flat and prices weak—the company’s long-term prospects are supported by solar PV

and EV-led sustainability demand. The company has guided for an annual maintenance capex of INR10b for

FY26.



SRF:

SRF’s specialty chemicals segment saw strong revenue and margin growth, driven by rising agrochemical

intermediate demand, strategic pricing, and export strength. The fluorochemicals business delivered robust

1QFY26 performance, aided by higher refrigerant gas prices and increased exports, offsetting domestic market

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



weakness. Management retains its target of 20% revenue growth for the chemicals business while aiming for a

RoCE of over 25% in FY26.

VO:

VO delivered a strong 1QFY26, with EBITDA rising 33%. For FY26, VO is targeting revenue growth across

ATBS, BP, and AO segments, supported by favorable demand trends and capacity additions. The company has

guided for 20% CAGR in revenue over the next three years while targeting EBITDA margins to reach 26-27% in

FY26.

Exhibit 60: Revenue for our coverage universe

Aggregate Revenue (INR b)

153.1

176.4 172.5

171.4

174.7

165.3 170.4

160.0 157.2 151.7 158.5 165.0 170.2 162.4

140.4

122.6 130.4

Exhibit 61: Gross margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate Gross margin (%)

Exhibit 62: EBITDAM for our coverage universe

Aggregate EBITDAM (%)

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 63: EBIT margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate EBIT margin (%)

Exhibit 64: PAT margin for our coverage universe

Aggregate adj. PAT margin (%)

CONSUMER - FMCG: In-line show; gradual recovery underway



Demand trend remains steady:

Our coverage universe reported 8.3% YoY revenue growth (vs. est. 5.8%).

Excluding ITC, our consumer sector grew at 6.2% YoY (est. 6%). FMCG demand remained stable, showing a

gradual sequential improvement backed by favorable macros. The rural market continued to perform well, with

urban demand also picking up. This trend is also reflected in Nielsen’s data, with rural growth at 8.4% vs. urban

at 4.3%. Paint companies were affected by early monsoons, though early signs of recovery are visible. Liquor

companies saw continued growth momentum, backed by favorable state excise policies in key markets like Uttar

Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, along with a strong presence across price segments. Innerwear demand remained

steady, and players are focused on maintaining healthy margins at current levels. Emerging channels continued

to drive growth and improve the sales mix for consumer companies. Overall, in our coverage, five companies

posted double-digit revenue growth, while CLGT and INDIGOPN recorded a decline in revenue. In total, 17 out of

21 companies reported revenue in line with estimates.

Gross margin pressure flows into EBITDA:

Gross margin continued to contract for most companies in 1QFY26

due to high-cost inventories. In 1Q, margin softness was broad-based across categories but more pronounced in

the beauty & personal care segment. Through operational cost optimization (particularly ad spends), companies

were able to somewhat manage margin pressure at the EBITDA level. With RM inflation easing and new

inventory coming in, the full benefits are expected to materialize in the coming quarters. Our coverage universe

reported 1.2% YoY EBITDA growth in 1QFY26 (vs. est. +1.3%). Excluding ITC, EBITDA grew 1.3% (est. +1.6%) in

1QFY26.

PBT and PAT below expectations:

For 14 of 21 coverage companies, PBT was either ahead of or in line with our

estimates, with a better-than-expected performance recorded by HMN, PIDI, and RDCK. Conversely, there were

notable misses by CLGT, GCPL, NEST, and INDIGOPN. Aggregate PBT grew 1.3% YoY (est. +1.6% YoY). Aggregate

PAT grew 2% (est. +2.6% YoY).

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Outperformers (1Q):

HMN, PIDI, and RDCK



Underperformers (1Q):

CLGT, GCPL, and NEST



Near-term outlook:

FMCG demand has remained stable on a sequential basis, showing ongoing gradual

improvement. Rural-led recovery remains intact, while urban demand is also picking up, albeit at a slower pace.

Growth is being driven by smaller towns and channels such as e-commerce and quick commerce. Encouraged by

favorable macros, consumer companies are increasing investments to drive portfolio transformation. We

anticipate a steady recovery in volume growth, supported by a recovery in both urban and rural markets.

Companies continue to focus on traditional growth strategies such as expanding distribution, launching new

products, and offering consumer incentives. Realization-driven growth, coupled with an uptick in volumes, is

expected to accelerate revenue growth in the coming quarters.

Our top picks are HUVR, MRCO, and PAGE.



Guidance highlights:

Consumption trends remain steady, with rural demand continuing to outperform urban

demand. Most companies expect margin expansion from 2HFY26 onwards, supported by cooling RM costs, and

consumer companies anticipate no price cuts in the near term. Improving macro trends indicate a gradual recovery

in consumption during FY26.



APNT:

Competition remains intense, and the company is focusing on innovation, brand saliency, regionalization,

and other strategic levers to navigate near-term uncertainties. The company is targeting single-digit growth in

both value and volume terms. Management has planned INR7b in capex for FY26, of which INR1b has already

been spent in 1Q.



BRIT:

The company remains open to take price cuts in select territories to remain competitive, if required. It has

guided for a capex of INR1b in FY26, which is lower than the levels seen in the past few years.



DABUR:

For FY26, DABUR aims for high single-digit growth, with double-digit growth expected in 2QFY26 due to

a low base.



HMN:

Revenue growth is expected to remain subdued in 2QFY26 as the high base of the talc portfolio is

expected to deliver healthy growth, supporting overall profitability. The company remains focused on building

long-term value in global markets through portfolio localization and strategic innovation.



HUVR:

1HFY26 growth is expected to be better than 2HFY25, driven by continued portfolio transformation and

improving macroeconomic indicators. EBITDA margin guidance is maintained at 22-23%.



GCPL:

In India, management has guided for high single-digit UVG, high single-digit revenue growth in INR terms,

and double-digit EBITDA growth for FY26. Margin recovery is expected in 2HFY26 as palm oil benefits flow in.

Indonesia’s margins are expected to recover from 3Q onwards.



MRCO:

While achieving double-digit EBITDA growth in FY26 may be challenging, management remains confident

of delivering this in 2HFY26. Moreover, the company is targeting a double-digit CAGR in PAT over the next two

years.



PIDI:

PIDI remains cautiously optimistic as domestic macroeconomic conditions continue to improve, supported

by a favorable monsoon, steady demand—particularly from the construction sector—lower interest rates, and

recent policy measures aimed at improving liquidity. EBITDA margin is expected to be in the 20-24% range for

FY26. It targets growth at 1-2x GDP in its core categories and 2-4x GDP in its high-growth categories.



VBL:

Consumer demand is expected to remain strong, and the company has strengthened its go-to-market

strategy by increasing visi cooler placements (up 50% YoY). Management anticipates a better performance in

3QCY25 on the back of a low base and improved weather conditions. EBITDA margin guidance remains at ~21%.

VBL remains focused on driving growth by leveraging enhanced capacities and a diversified portfolio and

strengthening its distribution network.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 65: Quarterly volume growth

Volume growth (%)

1QFY24

2QFY24

Asian Paints

10.0

6.0

Britannia

0.0

Colgate

3.0

-1.0

Dabur

3.0

Emami

3.0

2.0

Godrej Consumer

10.0

4.0

HUL

3.0

2.0

ITC

8.0

5.0

Jyothy labs

9.0

Marico

3.0

Nestle

5.4

Page Industries

-11.5

-8.8

UBBL

-12.4

7.0

United spirits

5.8

1.0

-P&A

10.3

3.8

Radico Khaitan

7.9

-3.1

Radico Khaitan (P&A)

27.1

21.9

3QFY24

12.0

5.5

-1.0

4.0

-1.0

5.0

2.0

-2.0

11.0

2.0

4.0

4.6

8.0

-1.8

4.6

3.6

20.1

4QFY24

10.0

6.0

1.0

3.0

6.4

9.0

2.0

10.0

3.0

4.0

6.1

10.9

3.7

-1.0

14.5

1QFY25

7.0

8.0

7.0

5.2

8.7

8.0

4.0

3.0

10.8

4.0

2.0

2.6

5.0

3.5

5.1

-4.1

14.2

2QFY25

-0.5

8.0

-7.0

1.7

7.0

3.0

3.5

3.0

5.0

-1.5

6.7

5.0

-4.4

-3.7

-2.4

12.7

3QFY25

1.6

6.0

4.0

1.2

4.0

0.0

6.0

8.0

6.0

2.5

4.7

8.0

10.2

11.2

15.5

18.0

4QFY25

1.8

3.0

0.0

-5.0

5.0

4.0

2.0

5.0

7.0

2.0

8.5

5.0

6.9

9.2

27.5

16.4

1QFY26

3.9

2.0

-3.0

-1.0

-3.0

5.0

4.0

6.0

3.6

9.0

4.0

1.9

11.0

9.4

9.0

37.5

40.7

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 66: Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth for 1QFY26

Company Name

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

HUL

Indigo Paints

ITC

Jyothy

LT Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Page Industries

Pidilite

Tata consumer

United Breweries

United Spirits

Radico Khaitan

Varun Beverages

Revenue

89,386

46,222

14,341

34,046

9,041

36,619

1,65,140

3,089

2,14,948

7,512

24,639

32,590

50,962

9,370

13,166

37,531

47,789

28,624

25,490

15,060

70,174

1QFY26

YoY %

-0.3%

8.8%

-4.2%

1.7%

-0.2%

9.9%

5.1%

-0.7%

16.5%

1.3%

19.0%

23.3%

5.9%

0.6%

3.1%

10.5%

9.8%

15.7%

8.4%

32.5%

-2.5%

EBITDA

16,250

7,571

4,526

6,678

2,142

6,946

37,180

443

68,165

1,242

2,654

6,550

11,183

2,662

2,947

9,410

6,069

3,105

4,150

2,322

19,988

1QFY26

YoY %

-4.1%

0.4%

-11.0%

2.0%

-1.1%

-4.4%

-0.7%

-6.5%

1.0%

-7.0%

10.2%

4.6%

-0.5%

102.7%

21.1%

15.8%

-9.1%

9.1%

-9.4%

55.8%

0.4%

1QFY26

YoY %

11,171

-5.9%

5,201

-1.8%

3,206

-11.9%

5,222

2.7%

1,843

8.3%

4,669

0.4%

25,265

-4.5%

259

-1.0%

52,442

3.0%

968

-4.8%

1,685

10.0%

5,040

8.6%

6,466

-13.4%

1,921

111.4%

2,008

21.5%

6,724

18.6%

3,342

10.2%

1,837

6.0%

2,963

-0.9%

1,403

83.9%

13,170

5.1%

Source: Company, MOFSL

PAT

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 67: Gross and EBITDA margin expansion in 1QFY26

Companies

Staples

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

HUL

ITC

Jyothy

LT Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Tata consumer

Varun Beverages

Paints

Asian Paints

Indigo Paints

Pidilite

Liquor

United Breweries

United Spirits

Radico Khaitan

Gross Margin

40.3%

68.9%

47.0%

69.4%

51.9%

50.1%

52.4%

48.0%

33.7%

46.9%

55.2%

63.6%

40.1%

54.5%

42.7%

45.9%

54.1%

42.5%

44.0%

43.0%

YoY (bp)

-310

-172

-75

176

-395

-187

-813

-326

-533

-249

441

-482

-17

-70

-50

-49

148

QoQ (bp)

-169

352

-60

-126

-636

-116

-207

-166

-101

340

-182

-4

-125

-93

-91

-49

-47

EBITDA Margin

16.4%

31.6%

19.6%

23.7%

19.0%

22.5%

31.7%

16.5%

10.8%

20.1%

21.9%

28.4%

12.7%

28.5%

18.2%

14.3%

25.1%

10.8%

16.3%

15.4%

YoY (bp)

-135

-241

-20

-283

-132

-485

-146

-86

-359

-140

1431

-263

-70

-89

114

QoQ (bp)

-179

-249

453

-213

-58

-303

-26

-82

332

-372

726

-77

578

100

-821

493

-67

283

-319

-86

230

180

Source: Company, MOFSL

CONSUMER - QSR: Store expansion-led growth continues



Demand remains steady:

Consumption trends remained stable, showing no significant improvement or

deterioration compared to the last 3-4 quarters. QSR companies expect eating-out frequency to gradually pick up

in FY26. This improvement is likely to be supported by lower inflation and government stimulus. The revenue gap

between dine-in and delivery has narrowed, driven by increased dine-in footfall traffic. However, weak

underlying growth continued to impact operating margins, exerting pressure on restaurant and EBITDA margins

for most brands. Enhancements in value-focused menu offerings and dine-in promotions have increased

footfalls. While delivery channels remain strong, dine-in is showing a gradual improvement. Our coverage

universe posted revenue growth of 11% YoY in 1QFY26 vs. 8% in 4QFY25 and 5% in 1QFY25. Jubilant delivered

robust LFL growth of 12%, Westlife and RBA recorded SSSG of 1% and 3%, while Devyani KFC/Devyani

PH/Sapphire PH/BBQ registered same-store sales decline of 1%/4%/8%/3% and Sapphire KFC remained flat YoY.

RBA is our top pick in QSR.



Pressure on profitability:

With underlying growth remaining soft, companies witnessed an adverse impact on

their unit economics. Both restaurant margin and EBITDA margin (pre-Ind AS) continued to contract YoY and

QoQ in 1QFY26. EBITDA margin (pre-Ind AS) expanded YoY for JUBI and RBA; however, for RBA, it contracted on

a QoQ basis.



Outperformer (1Q):

RBA



Underperformer (1Q):

Devyani, BBQ

Guidance highlights:



JUBI:

JUBI has avoided broad-based price hikes for the past 2.5 years, bringing only calibrated increases in select

cases. That said, management does not expect any pricing action in the near term. The long-term store

expansion target is 5,000 outlets, with a focus on innovation, digital asset improvement, faster deliveries in top

metros, and strengthening on-ground teams.



Devyani:

For KFC, it is targeting an ADS of INR100k on a consistent basis for the full year. Stores for three new

brands (TeaLive, New York Fries, and SANOOK KITCHEN) will be launched next quarter. These brands will initially

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

be launched in test markets and gradually scaled up, so it will take some time for them to become significant

contributors to Devyani’s sales.



Westlife:

Over the next couple of years, the company expects to reach mid- to high-single-digit SSSG levels. It is

on track to achieve the target of 580-630 restaurants by 2027.



Sapphire:

The company aims to maintain its KFC expansion run rate of 70-80 stores annually while adopting a

cautious approach for PH, focusing on smaller-format stores with sizes ranging between 1,000 and 1,200 sq. ft.

The company plans to implement a 3-5% price hike in Sri Lanka, which is expected to support margin

improvement from 2Q onwards.



RBA:

In 2Q, RBA expects a vegetarian-skewed demand due to Hindu festivities such as Shravan, Shradh, and

Navratri, which is viewed positively given the higher margins on vegetarian offerings. BK plans to open 60-80

new restaurants annually, targeting 800 restaurants by FY29, up from the current 519 restaurants.



BBQ:

The company plans to open 20-25 BBQ India outlets annually, 4-6 new international stores across the

Middle East and Southeast Asia in the near term, and 12-15 Premium CDR restaurants in FY26 as part of its

calibrated expansion strategy. Management remains optimistic about its long-term growth, underpinned by

efficient execution and a focused multi-brand strategy.

Exhibit 68: Quarterly trends

Particulars

Revenue Growth (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

SSSG

Barbeque Nation

Devyani - KFC

Devyani - PH

Jubilant (LFL)

Sapphire - KFC

Sapphire - PH

Restaurant Brands

Westlife

Gross profit margin (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

EBITDA Pre-Ind AS margins (%)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

Jubilant

Sapphire

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (India)

1QFY24

20%

22%

11%

20%

21%

12%

25%

14%

-8%

-1%

-5%

-1%

-9%

64.0%

70.8%

69.7%

74.9%

76.0%

68.5%

68.1%

75.1%

64.0%

66.5%

70.6%

4.6%

13.2%

13.4%

11.8%

-0.3%

2.4%

2QFY24

-3%

10%

15%

14%

19%

-6%

19%

23%

-11%

-4%

-10%

-1%

-20%

65.9%

70.8%

69.0%

75.7%

76.4%

68.7%

67.9%

76.1%

64.2%

66.8%

70.1%

4.5%

11.5%

13.3%

10.6%

1.5%

5.4%

3QFY24

14%

-2%

12%

16%

-4%

15%

20%

-2%

-5%

-13%

-3%

-2%

-19%

-9%

67.9%

70.6%

69.4%

75.8%

76.7%

68.9%

68.4%

75.7%

64.4%

67.1%

70.3%

11.0%

9.3%

12.9%

10.8%

2.8%

6.8%

4QFY24

39%

11%

-4%

15%

13%

16%

-3%

16%

20%

-7%

-14%

-3%

-15%

-5%

68.9%

69.2%

69.9%

77.3%

76.6%

68.9%

68.3%

75.5%

64.2%

67.7%

70.2%

6.4%

9.2%

10.9%

8.6%

-0.5%

2.4%

1QFY25

-6%

44%

-1%

10%

11%

16%

-7%

-9%

-6%

-7%

68.1%

69.2%

69.5%

76.8%

76.1%

68.6%

68.2%

76.1%

64.5%

67.6%

70.6%

6.9%

11.6%

9.8%

1.3%

3.6%

2QFY25

49%

-3%

-7%

-6%

-8%

-3%

-7%

68.1%

69.3%

69.0%

76.7%

76.1%

68.8%

68.3%

76.5%

64.9%

67.5%

69.7%

5.4%

9.4%

11.7%

8.5%

0.6%

5.0%

3QFY25

-1%

54%

19%

14%

12%

10%

11%

-2%

-4%

-1%

13%

-3%

-1%

68.2%

68.7%

68.6%

76.2%

75.1%

68.6%

68.2%

75.6%

65.6%

67.8%

70.1%

10.3%

10.1%

12.4%

10.7%

2.1%

6.2%

4QFY25

-2%

16%

10%

13%

12%

-2%

-6%

12%

-1%

68.5%

68.3%

75.6%

74.5%

68.2%

68.0%

74.8%

65.3%

67.8%

70.0%

6.5%

8.9%

11.8%

7.1%

2.3%

5.4%

1QFY26E

-3%

11%

10%

18%

11%

-6%

13%

-3%

-1%

-4%

12%

-8%

67.7%

68.2%

67.1%

74.7%

74.1%

67.4%

67.1%

74.6%

65.4%

67.7%

71.6%

4.6%

8.1%

12.0%

7.1%

1.7%

4.1%

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Particulars

Westlife

ADS ('000')

Barbeque Nation

Devyani

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Restaurant Brands (India)

Westlife

Store (India)

Barbeque Nation

Devyani India

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Jubilant

Sapphire

-KFC

-Pizza Hut

Restaurant Brands

Westlife

PBT Margins

Barbeque Nation

Devyani (Consol)

Jubilant (Standalone)

Sapphire

Restaurant Brands (Consol)

Restaurant Brands (Standalone)

Westlife

1QFY24

12.9%

170

117

138

120

189

212

1,230

510

521

1,891

660

358

302

396

361

-1.7%

7.1%

7.7%

5.1%

-8.8%

-5.2%

6.6%

2QFY24

11.9%

158

109

125

126

185

212

1,298

540

535

1,949

692

381

311

404

370

-5.0%

4.0%

7.2%

3.3%

-7.3%

-2.1%

4.9%

3QFY24

11.4%

175

104

125

119

176

210

1,387

590

565

2,007

725

406

319

441

380

2.3%

1.1%

6.0%

2.1%

-6.2%

-1.4%

3.9%

4QFY24

8.7%

153

114

105

157

217

1,429

596

567

2,096

748

429

319

455

397

-0.3%

0.4%

3.8%

0.1%

-12.4%

-7.1%

0.4%

1QFY25

8.1%

155

104

122

119

170

219

1,473

617

570

2,148

762

442

320

456

403

-1.8%

3.1%

4.7%

1.6%

-7.5%

-5.5%

0.7%

2QFY25

7.7%

153

111

118

168

222

1,557

645

593

2,199

784

461

323

464

408

-3.3%

-0.1%

4.8%

0.8%

-10.3%

-3.4%

0.1%

3QFY25

9.1%

162

115

114

173

226

1,658

689

644

2,266

835

496

339

510

421

1.4%

0.4%

4.9%

2.2%

-8.6%

-3.8%

1.0%

4QFY25

7.6%

141

108

153

230

1,664

696

630

2,304

836

502

334

513

438

-5.6%

-1.7%

4.3%

0.6%

-9.6%

-5.2%

0.2%

1QFY26E

7.7%

140

116

120

165

236

1,767

704

618

2,362

846

510

336

519

444

-5.7%

0.1%

5.2%

-0.2%

-6.5%

-2.1%

0.2%

CONSUMER DURABLES: C&W beat estimates, while UCP was a miss



Aggregate revenue in line:

Revenue for our consumer durables coverage universe increased ~3% YoY to INR200.0b

in 1QFY26 (in line with our estimates). The cable and wire (C&W) segment posted higher-than-estimated revenue

growth, supported by robust volume. The C&W segment’s aggregate revenue increased 28% YoY to INR114.7b

(+10% vs. our estimates) in 1QFY26. However, the UCP segment reported lower-than-estimated revenue due to an

unfavorable seasonal shift, which sharply curtailed the peak selling season for ACs, commercial refrigerators, and

air coolers. The UCP segment’s aggregate revenue (coverage companies) declined 28% YoY to INR41.4b (-15% vs.

our estimate) in 1QFY26. Revenue growth for POLYCAB/KEII/RRKABEL stood at 26%/26%/14% YoY, while VOLT/

HAVL posted a revenue decline of ~20%/6% YoY in 1QFY26. C&W continues to deliver strong growth led by robust

domestic demand and supportive commodity prices. Meanwhile, a weak 1QFY26 is estimated to result in a flat-to-

marginal decline in full-year (FY26) UCP revenue. However, demand recovery in the upcoming festive season and

the possibility of a second summer in certain regions remain key monitorables. The elevated inventory across trade

channels remains a big challenge, followed by changing BEE norms w.e.f. Jan’26.

C&W margin improves YoY, while UCP margin at a multi-quarter low in a peak season:

average EBIT margin in the

C&W segment surged 1.2pp YoY to 12.3% (+1.1pp vs. our estimates). However, the EBIT margin in the UCP

segment contracted 4.8pp YoY to 2.0% (at a multi-quarter low in a peak period). Aggregate EBITDA for our

coverage universe inched up ~3% YoY to INR19.5b (in line with our estimates, as superior profitability in the

C&W segment was offset by weak profitability in UCP), and EBITDA margin remained flat YoY at 9.8% (in line).

RRKABEL EBITDA grew 50% YoY to INR1.4b, albeit on a low base, and OPM surged 1.7pp YoY to 6.9%. POLYCAB/

KEII’s EBITDA surged 47%/20% YoY in 1QFY26. VOLT/HAVL EBITDA declined 58%/10% YoY in 1QFY26.

Our earnings revisions:

We raise EPS estimates for POLYCAB (8%/3% for FY26/FY27) and KEII (4%/3% for

FY26/FY27). While we cut EPS estimates for VOLT (~9%/5% for FY26/FY27) and HAVL (~8%/7% for FY26/FY27).

We maintain our EPS estimates for RRKABEL.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Top picks:

We maintain our positive view on POLYCAB.

Surprises:

POLYCAB and KEII

Misses:

VOLT and HAVL

Guidance highlights:



POLYCAB:

Management retains its long-term margin guidance of ~11-13%, considering geographical mix,

volatility in commodity prices, capacity expansion, and expected rise in A&P spending. FMEG saw its second

consecutive profitable quarter, led by premiumization, a better product mix, and operating leverage benefits.

POLYCAB is confident of achieving its long-term targets of Project Spring.

KEII:

indicated the demand outlook remains strong, led by power T&D, renewable energy, data centers, and

manufacturing sectors. KEII retains its FY26 growth guidance of ~18-19% and ~20% in the next two to three

years. This will be led by the completion of the Sanand expansion and KEII’s continued expansion strategy. KEII

aims to achieve an OPM of ~11%, considering the strong order book of domestic institutional cables as well as

export orders of cables/EH cables. Further, the completion of Sanand Phase I is likely to improve its margins.

RRKABEL:

It indicated that C&W's overall volume grew 6.5% YoY, fueled by ~8-10% growth in wires and ~2% in

cables, with the latter being hit by domestic order spillovers. It remains confident of achieving ~18% volume

growth and a 100bp margin improvement for FY26 (realized a 40bp improvement so far), aided by ongoing

capacity expansions. FMEG losses narrowed by 5.5-6.0pp due to cost savings and a better product mix. It guided

an FMEG revenue growth of ~20-25% in FY26.

HAVL:

Management highlighted that 1QFY26 was a challenging quarter, largely due to an unexpectedly weak

summer and continued muted consumer demand, which impacted cooling products revenue, further

compounded by a high base in the previous year. In contrast, the C&W segment remained a bright spot,

delivering strong growth backed by healthy infrastructure and industrial demand. It believes that the current

challenges are transitory and remains optimistic about achieving revenue growth and margin expansion in the

upcoming quarters.

VOLT:

Management highlighted that 1QFY26 was a challenging period as growth momentum turned adverse in

May’25. The weak summer season led to a significant drop in peak season demand for ACs and other cooling

products. VOLT believes the performance dip in 1QFY26 was temporary, and it is taking corrective actions,

including cost-control measures, inventory realignment, and production adjustments. It remains cautiously

optimistic about a recovery in the coming quarters, aided by the upcoming festive season and the possibility of a

second summer in certain regions.

Exhibit 70: Aggregate* UCP EBIT and margin

UCP EBIT (INR b)

UCP revenue (INR b)

123

YoY Growth (%)

Exhibit 69: Aggregate* UCP revenue and growth

30 31

19 18 16 17 30

8 17

28 18 24

-28

0.6

UCP EBIT Margin (%)

7 7

15 13 16 28 32 15 18 33 38 17 21 43 57 22 25 53

-0.1

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In UCP revenue and EBIT we consider VOLT and HAVL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 71: Aggregate* C&W revenue and growth

Cables and wires Revenue (INR b)

YoY Growth (%)

102

103

Exhibit 72: Aggregate* C&W EBIT and margin

Cables and Wires EBIT (INR b)

EBIT Margin (%)

100

129

115

Source: Company, MOFSL; Note: *In Cables and Wires, for revenue and EBIT, we considered Polycab, KEII, HAVL, and RRKABEL

EMS: Strong order book, pivoting towards high-margin segments, drives operating performance



Continued strong revenue growth across EMS players:

The EMS sector reported another robust quarter, with

aggregate revenue surging 66% YoY to INR186b. This exceptional growth was driven by the execution of a strong

order book. Dixon led the pack with revenue surging 95% YoY, followed by AVALON (up 62%), Amber (44%), and

KAYNES (34%). Cyient DLM also witnessed muted growth, with revenue rising 8% YoY, which was lower compared to

the EMS industry. Syrma and DATAPATT remained the outliers, with revenue declining ~19%/5% YoY due to the

execution of low-volume, high-margin orders (for SYRMA) and spillover of orders in 2Q (for DATAPATT). Looking

ahead, we expect strong revenue momentum to continue, led by healthy demand traction and the execution of large

orders in hand (~INR176.4b as of Jun’25; excluding Dixon and Amber, i.e., ~1.8x the TTM revenue of these

companies). For our coverage universe, we expect an aggregate revenue growth of ~59% in FY26 (implying 64% YoY

growth in 9MFY26) and a CAGR of 36% over FY25-FY27.

Order book (ex-Dixon, Amber) continues to remain healthy, with client additions and increasing wallet share with

existing clients:

The sector continued to witness healthy order inflows (~INR36b) in 1QFY26. Most companies are

experiencing healthy and expanding order books, providing them with clear revenue visibility for the short to medium

term. Among our coverage universe, KAYNES witnessed the highest order book growth of ~47% YoY, followed by

Avalon/Syrma at ~+23%/22% YoY. Meanwhile, CYIENTDL reported flat order book YoY, but it reported the highest

quarterly order intake in 10 quarters, at INR5b, leading to a book-to-bill ratio of ~2x. DATAPATT continues to see a

declining order book trend (down 20% YoY). From the order book in hand, a clear strategic shift is underway from

low-margin consumer segments toward high-margin verticals such as defense, aerospace, automotive, telecom,

power electronics, and clean energy.

Margins continue to expand, led by operating efficiency and favorable business mix, barring DATAPATT and

Amber:

EBITDA margin for our coverage universe (ex Amber and Dixon) expanded 460bp YoY, led by an expansion

across all companies except DATAPATT (EBITDA margin contracted 340bp). While overall coverage margins

(including Amber and Dixon) remained flat YoY, Amber’s EBITDA margin contracted ~70bp YoY. AVALON witnessed

the highest EBITDA margin expansion of ~710bp YoY, benefitting from a favorable business mix and operating

leverage during the quarter (rising mix of domestic manufacturing to 80%). It was followed by Syrma (up 530bp), led

by a reduction in low-margin business (down to 34% in 1QFY25 from 53% in 1QFY25); KAYNES’ margin expanded

350bp YoY, fueled by the execution of high-margin orders. Favorable operating leverage and a change in product

mix played a role in margin expansion for these companies.

Going forward, we expect margins for our coverage

universe to gradually expand, led by the execution of high-margin orders and operating leverage.

The quarter experienced multiple earnings upgrades and no downgrades:

We upgraded our FY26/F27 earnings

estimates for Amber by 10%/12%, Syrma by 7%/10%, and AVALON by 5%/10%. We raised DIXON’s earnings

estimate by 10% for FY27 only. For the rest of the coverage universe, we broadly retained our earnings estimates.

Surprises:

AVALON, SYRMA, and DIXON

Miss:

DATAPATT

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Guidance highlights:



Kaynes

retained its full-year revenue guidance of INR4.5b (with INR42.5b from the EMS business, INR1b from

the OSAT business, and INR1.8b from the Canadian business). EBITDA margin is expected to be in a similar range

to 1Q (it is revised upwards). Management guided a ‘significantly positive’ OCF and NWC days in the range of 70-

80 for FY26.

Avalon

raised its revenue growth guidance to 23-25% (from 18-20%) and aims to double revenue by FY27, led by

major growth in India. Margins are expected to improve sequentially starting next quarter, with continued

momentum in FY27 as well. AVALON entered the semiconductor equipment manufacturing space through a

partnership with a top global semiconductor OEM.

Syrma SGS

guided for 30-35% revenue growth and ~8.5%-9% EBITDA margins for FY26 (vs. 8.0-8.5% margin

earlier). Management guided full-year FY26 exports to surpass INR10b. The company entered into a JV with

Shinhyup Electronics to manufacture PCBs. The project entails a capex of ~USD90m over the next 3-5 years

(phase 1 of capex amounts to USD35m, which will be completed over the next 12-18 months).

Cyient DLM:

With a current book-to-bill ratio of ~2x, the company aims to maintain a ratio above 1x by the end

of FY26. It has also guided for a revenue CAGR of ~30% over the next five years.

Data Patterns:

Revenue softness in 1Q from customer approval delays is expected to normalize, with strong

order visibility supporting 2Q’s rebound. Management maintains its FY26 growth guidance of 20-25% and 35-

40% EBITDA margin, with scaling efforts focused on 2HFY26.

Amber Enterprises

targets 10-12% outperformance over the RAC industry in FY26, long-term demand growth to

35m units by FY30, and consolidated EBITDA margins to be around 8-9% for the full year. The Electronics

segment aimed to reach USD1b revenue in three years, with margin expansion through higher-value industrial,

defense, and automation segments, supported by ~INR50b capex (~70% subsidized through EMCS). Inorganic

growth through Power-One and Unitronics to boost margins, while railways & defense looks to double revenue

in two years.

Dixon Technologies

expects mobile phone volume of 42m-43m units in FY26 and 60m in FY27 through JVs and

backward integration. Consumer electronics would see strong LED TV orders, and 50% growth is expected in

refrigerators and new cooling products. Lighting JV with Signify to push premiumization and exports, and

telecom/networking eyes INR50b in a year. Wearables/hearables to expand via new products and localization.

Planned capex of INR11.5b-12b in FY26 with strong growth across segments.

Revenue (INR m)

YoY

FY26

FY25

(%)

FY25

6,735 5,040

9,845

3,233 1,995

3,428

2,784 2,579

4,281

9,440 11,599 -19 9,244

993

1,041

-5

3,962

1,28,357 65,798 95 1,02,925

34,491 24,013 44 37,537

1,86,0331,12,064

1,71,221

23,185 22,253

30,759

EBITDA margins (%)

YoY

FY25 (%) FY25

13.3 350 17.1

2.2

710 12.1

7.8

120 13.4

3.8

530 11.6

35.7 -340 37.7

3.8

4.3

8.2

-70

7.9

5.5

7.4

7.8

460 17.0

Adj PAT (INR m)

YoY

4Q QoQ

FY25 (%) FY25 (%)

508

411

-23 -716 243

-41

106

-30

310

-76

193

158

654

-24

328

-22 1,141 -78

1,337 68 1,845 22

724

NA 1,160 -10

3,172 58 5,766 -13

1,112 54 2,760 -38

Source: MOFSL, Company

FY27E

Old

242

163

132

Exhibit 73: Key operating indicators

QoQ

(%)

-32

-6

-35

-75

-8

-25

FY26

16.8

9.2

9.0

9.2

32.3

3.8

7.4

5.5

12.4

QoQ

(%)

-30

-280

-440

-250

-540

-50

-40

-190

-470

FY26

746

142

497

255

2,250

1,039

5,004

1,715

Kaynes

Avalon

Cyient DLM

Syrma SGS

Data Patterns

Dixon

Amber

Agg.

Agg. (ex. Dixon, Amber)

Exhibit 74:

Our revised EPS estimates (INR)

Rev

169

116

FY26E

Old

169

105

Chg (%)

-3

Rev

265

181

133

Chg (%)

-3

Dixon

Amber

Kaynes

Avalon

Cyient DLM

Syrma SGS

Data Patterns

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

FINANCIALS – BANKS: Treasury gains drive earnings; NIMs remain under pressure



The banking sector posted a weak yet in-line first quarter of FY26, with business momentum moderating after a

busy 4QFY26. NIMs contracted for both private and public banks, with private lenders seeing a sharper decline

due to higher exposure to repo-linked loans and interest reversals from elevated slippages. Public banks also

reported margin compression, driven by their quicker loan repricing cycle. CASA ratios declined for most banks

in 1Q, in line with expectations, following the seasonally strong CA accretion in 4Q. Other income remained

robust across the sector, supported by favorable bond price movements, particularly benefiting PSU banks.

Overall business momentum stayed muted, constrained by sluggish deposit growth and elevated CD ratios,

which capped credit expansion. Corporate loan demand remained sluggish, with no visible recovery in either

government or private sector capex. Growth in unsecured lending continued to weaken amid stress in the MFI,

personal loan, and credit card segments, while MSME and vehicle finance portfolios also showed signs of

slowing due to emerging stress. We project sector credit growth to sustain at 11.5% YoY for FY26.

NII for our coverage universe grew 1.7% YoY, with private banks recording 3.8% growth and PSBs posting a 0.4%

YoY decline. Within our coverage, HDFCB, Axis, Federal, RBL, AU, Equitas, and all PSU banks posted a drop in NII

on a sequential basis, whereas ICICI and IDFC registered only modest gains. We expect NII growth to moderate

further in 2QFY26, as the 50bp repo rate transmission will largely flow through in this quarter. Some NIM

improvement is likely in 2H, aided by CRR cuts and deposit cost repricing. Earnings growth is projected to

gradually recover in 2H, with a more meaningful rebound in FY27E as easing stress translates into lower credit

costs and margin recovery sustains. For FY26, we estimate earnings growth of 3% YoY for our coverage universe

before accelerating to 14-16% in FY27E/28E.

Fresh slippages remained elevated across banks, driven by elevated stress in unsecured portfolios and emerging

pressure in the MSME and vehicle finance segments. Our latest interactions indicate that lenders are

maintaining a cautious stance, with disbursement growth calibrated in select categories, as over-leveraging

concerns persist. Credit costs remain high for certain players, particularly mid-sized private banks, which

continue to face asset quality pressure. The new MFIN guardrails implemented in FY26 are expected to keep

growth measured while aiding gradual improvement in asset quality. However, some lenders anticipate that

elevated stress in the MFI segment could persist until 3Q, keeping credit cost risks tilted upward. We expect

credit costs to stay high through 1HFY26 before moderating in 2H. Provision coverage ratios remain healthy

across banks, and the restructured book continues to decline.

Private Banks – Business momentum tepid; margin contracts as yields decline:

Advances growth stood at 0.8%

QoQ for our banking coverage. ICICI and Axis reported 2% QoQ growth in advances, while KMB surprised

positively with 4% QoQ growth. HDFCB remained flat QoQ, while IDFC reported healthy 4.5% QoQ growth in

advances. IndusInd reported a second consecutive quarter of a decline in advances as it voluntarily unwound its

corporate book to manage the liquidity position. Deposit growth too remained tepid amid seasonal outflows of

CA deposits. As a result, the CASA ratio declined to 36.9% from 37.8% in 4QFY25. NIMs contracted for most

players amid a decline in yields and elevated slippages leading to interest reversals. Slippages saw an uptick amid

seasonality and stress in the unsecured segment.

Public Sector Banks (PSBs) – NIM declined amid rate cuts; asset quality steady:

NII fell 3% QoQ as NIMs

contracted across the segment due to faster rate transmission. Canara, SBI, and UNBK reported a ~4% QoQ

decline in NII, while BoB and Indian Bank saw flat trends. Slippages remained contained for most PSBs,

supported by minimal exposure to unsecured lending. GNPA ratio was stable or lower across the board, with

PCR levels healthy at ~75-90%. SMA pools also stayed under control, with no significant concerns, while

restructured books continued to decline.

Small Finance Banks – Stress builds up in select portfolios; NIMs take a hit:

AUBANK posted strong advances

growth of 22.5% YoY/2.6% QoQ, driven by retail secured assets and commercial banking, while the inclusive

banking and unsecured portfolios saw a sharp decline in 1Q. Deposits saw healthy growth of 31.3% YoY/2.8%

QoQ. Slippages increased during the quarter, pushing GNPA/NNPA up 19bp/14bp QoQ to 2.47%/0.88%, while

PCR slipped to 64.7%. The bank raised its credit cost guidance by 10-15bp. It has received in-principle approval

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



for a universal banking license, which is expected to aid liability mobilization and support cost control. EQUITAS

reported a steep 4% QoQ drop in advances, led by a sharp contraction in the MFI portfolio, which now accounts

for 9.4% of total loans. Deposits grew 18.3% YoY/3.0% QoQ, supported by a strong rise in CA balances. The

reduction in MFI share weighed on profitability, with NIM contracting 58bp QoQ to 6.55%.

Our view:

Banking sector earnings continue to witness pressure due to slower growth, elevated stress and NIM

pressures, with several banks witnessing double-digit NIM contractions. High slippages also led to interest

reversals, further denting margins during this downtrend. Select banks and NBFCs have flagged emerging stress

in the MSME and vehicle finance segments, which will keep near-term earnings in check. We maintain a guarded

outlook on margins, with banks likely to see further NIM compression in 2Q. However, benefits from CRR cuts

and the broader rate downtrend should aid NIM recovery in 2HFY26. Credit costs are expected to stay elevated

in the near term before easing in the second half. We project private banks to deliver an aggregate earnings

CAGR of 13.5% over FY25-27, while PSBs are expected to clock 8% CAGR. For our coverage universe, we estimate

earnings CAGR of 10.9%. Strong balance sheets, healthy PCR levels, and adequate contingent buffers should help

to limit downside risks, keeping us positive on the medium-term sector outlook.

Our preferred picks

are ICICIBC,

HDFCB and SBIN.

Surprises:

ICICIBC, SBIN

Misses:

Kotak, Axis, EQUITAS, Union

Guidance highlights



HDFCB

expects its loan growth to match the system in FY26 and outpace it in FY27, with a medium-term target

of achieving a CD ratio of 87-90%. Improving the C/I ratio from the current ~40% remains a priority. The bank is

focusing on deepening its liability relationships and expanding its branch network to grow its customer base,

thereby driving both deposit and liability growth.



ICICIBC

remains strategically focused on growing PBT through a 360-degree customer approach. NIMs are

expected to stay under pressure in 2Q, while 3Q and 4Q should see reduced volatility owing to the revised NIM

reporting methodology. The bank is confident in its personal loan and credit card origination, emphasizing the

quality of new sourcing, with volumes expected to pick up gradually.



KMB

aims to raise the share of unsecured loans to 15% of the portfolio from the current sub-10% level. The full

impact of the 50bp repo rate cut is expected to be felt in 2Q, with 1Q reflecting only 15 days of its effect. Deposit

repricing is anticipated to play out over the next 3-4 quarters, supporting margin improvement.



AXSB's

business growth has trailed peers, with slower expansion in home loans, vehicle finance, and corporate

segments. Management, however, expects a rebound, targeting near-term growth at roughly 3x the system

growth. In 1QFY26, NIMs absorbed the impact of 25bp rate cuts, with the remaining 75bp expected to flow

through in 2Q. Despite this, the bank remains confident of maintaining NIMs at 3.8%.



SBIN

expects credit growth to remain at ~12-13%, supported by a strong pipeline of INR7.2t. The bank aims to

sustain RoE at 15% and RoA above 1% through the cycles. NIMs are projected to hover around 3%, with a dip in

2Q, followed by an improvement in 3Q on the back of CRR benefits and easing deposit rates. The bank also

targets maintaining its C/I ratio below ~50% on a sustained basis.



IIB’s

loan book fell sharply by 4% QoQ, owing to a steep decline in corporate and commercial portfolios as the

bank continued to run down select corporate assets. With INR480b of surplus liquidity, IIB is optimizing its

balance sheet by exiting low-margin corporate loans and increasing its focus on retail. MFI slippages are

expected to stabilize over the next six months.



BOB

reported healthy advances growth of 13.2% YoY, though it will wait for greater clarity on the lending

environment before accelerating growth. The bank expects NIMs to remain in the 2.85-3% range in FY26, though

pressure was already visible in 1Q. Recoveries are projected to stay strong, with a target of over INR100b. To

support future growth, BOB plans to open 300 branches in FY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 75: NIMs decline across banks, though healthy treasury gains helped deliver broadly in-line earnings

INR b

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

EQUITASFB

1QFY26

20.4

135.6

27.6

114.3

90.1

5.8

23.4

314.4

216.3

49.3

46.4

63.6

72.6

105.8

14.8

410.7

91.1

7.9

NII

YoY (%)

6.5

0.8

(8.2)

(1.4)

(1.7)

16.9

2.0

5.4

10.6

5.1

(14.2)

2.9

6.1

1.0

(12.9)

(0.1)

(3.2)

(2.0)

QoQ (%)

(2.4)

(1.8)

0.0

(0.5)

(4.6)

4.0

(1.7)

(2.0)

2.1

0.5

52.2

(0.5)

(0.3)

(1.7)

(5.3)

(4.0)

(4.2)

(5.3)

1QFY26

13.1

115.2

16.7

82.4

85.5

3.3

15.6

357.3

187.5

22.4

25.7

47.7

55.6

70.8

7.0

305.4

69.1

3.1

PPOP

YoY (%)

37.9

13.9

(14.0)

15.0

12.3

59.2

3.7

49.6

17.0

19.0

6.0

5.9

7.6

(18.2)

15.5

(11.3)

(7.5)

QoQ (%)

1.5

7.1

6.2

1.3

3.3

7.0

6.2

34.7

6.1

23.6

(4.9)

1.7

4.5

(18.4)

(2.4)

(10.3)

1.1

1QFY26

5.8

58.1

3.7

45.4

47.5

1.6

8.6

181.6

127.7

4.6

6.0

29.7

32.8

16.8

2.0

191.6

41.2

-2.2

PAT

YoY (%)

15.6

(3.8)

(65.0)

1.9

21.7

19.7

(14.6)

12.2

15.5

(32.0)

23.7

(6.8)

(48.5)

(46.1)

12.5

11.9

(968.7)

QoQ (%)

15.3

(18.4)

17.0

(10.0)

(5.0)

(11.2)

(16.4)

3.1

1.1

52.1

0.6

(7.6)

(63.3)

191.6

2.8

(17.4)

(631.6)

Total Banking Coverage 1810.2

1.7

(1.0)

1483.4

16.8

10.1

802.4

3.6

(2.4)

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 76: Margins declined in double-digits across banks; bias remains negative for 2Q

NIM (%)

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

4QFY25

1QFY26

YoY (bp)

QoQ (bp)

5.80

5.40

(60)

(40)

3.97

3.80

(25)

(17)

6.70

6.40

(120)

(30)

2.98

2.91

(27)

(7)

2.73

2.55

(35)

(18)

3.29

3.20

(19)

(9)

3.12

2.94

(22)

(18)

3.54

3.35

(12)

(19)

4.41

4.34

(2)

(7)

5.95

5.71

(51)

(24)

2.25

3.46

(79)

121

3.48

3.35

(18)

(13)

4.97

4.65

(37)

(32)

2.81

2.70

(37)

(11)

4.89

4.50

(117)

(39)

3.00

2.90

(32)

(10)

2.87

2.76

(29)

(11)

In 4QFY25, Indusind (IIB) had many one-offs;

Source: MOFSL, Company

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 77: Business momentum was modest; CASA ratio declined further

Loans

1QFY26

INR b

AUBANK*

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

1,098

10,597

1,285

11,866

10,736

512

2,412

26,284

13,642

2,437

3,337

5,841

4,448

10,920

944

41,962

9,461

YoY (%)

22.5

8.1

5.7

13.2

13.4

21.4

9.2

6.7

11.5

20.3

(4.1)

12.1

14.1

11.0

8.9

11.9

7.7

QoQ (%)

2.6

1.8

(2.6)

(1.9)

2.3

0.3

2.7

0.3

1.7

4.5

(3.3)

2.3

4.2

1.3

2.0

0.8

(0.8)

1,277

11,616

1,547

14,356

14,677

620

2,874

27,641

16,085

2,650

3,971

7,443

5,128

15,894

1,127

54,733

12,399

1QFY26

YoY (%)

31.3

9.3

16.1

9.8

9.9

20.0

8.0

16.2

12.8

26.4

(0.3)

9.3

14.6

12.9

11.2

11.7

1.3

QoQ (%)

2.8

(1.0)

2.3

(2.5)

0.7

3.3

1.3

1.8

(0.1)

5.1

(3.3)

1.0

2.8

1.5

1.6

1.7

(2.5)

29.2

40.0

27.1

39.3

29.6

23.3

30.4

33.9

41.2

48.0

31.5

37.2

40.9

37.0

32.5

39.4

32.5

Deposits

1QFY26

YoY (%)

(380)

(200)

(631)

(129)

(142)

(208)

108

(210)

140

(519)

(180)

(250)

(309)

(8)

(134)

(88)

QoQ (%)

(100)

(431)

(64)

(161)

(120)

(90)

(63)

110

(133)

(114)

(210)

(96)

(167)

(61)

(100)

CASA ratio (%)

Total Banking Coverage

1,57,782

10.4

0.8

1,94,039

11.3

0.7

36.9

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 78: Asset quality deteriorated for select banks; PSBs reported healthy trends

Asset quality

(%)

AUBANK

AXSB

BANDHAN

BoB

CBK

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

INBK

KMB

PNB

RBK

SBIN

UNBK

GNPA

2.28

1.28

4.71

2.26

2.94

2.99

1.84

1.33

1.67

1.87

3.13

3.09

1.42

3.95

2.60

1.82

3.60

4QFY25 (%)

NNPA

0.74

0.33

1.28

0.58

0.70

1.12

0.44

0.43

0.39

0.53

0.95

0.19

0.31

0.40

0.29

0.47

0.63

PCR

68.1

74.6

73.7

74.9

76.7

63.2

76.2

67.9

76.9

72.3

70.2

93.9

78.1

90.3

89.0

74.4

83.1

GNPA

2.47

1.57

4.96

2.28

2.69

2.98

1.91

1.40

1.67

1.97

3.64

3.01

1.48

3.78

2.78

1.83

3.52

1QFY26 (%)

NNPA

0.88

0.45

1.36

0.60

0.63

1.22

0.48

0.47

0.41

0.55

1.12

0.18

0.34

0.38

0.45

0.47

0.62

PCR

64.7

71.5

73.7

74.0

77.1

59.7

75.2

66.9

75.9

72.3

70.2

94.3

76.9

90.3

84.0

74.5

82.9

QoQ change (bp)

GNPA

NNPA

(25)

(7)

(1)

(8)

(1)

(17)

(2)

(8)

(1)

PCR

(336)

(308)

(3)

(83)

(349)

(101)

(100)

(101)

(6)

(116)

(498)

(23)

Exhibit 79: Snapshot of the restructured books across banks (%)

INR b

Absolute Jun’23

AXSB

11.5

0.21

DCBB

7.7

3.97

ICICIBC

17.9

IIB

3.3

0.66

KMB*

2.0

0.19

13.3

1.40

RBK

2.1

1.05

AUBANK

3.3

1.00

BOB

1.31

SBIN*

129.2

0.69

INBK

45.6

2.19

UNBK

86.1

Restructured book

Sep’23 Dec’23 Mar’24

0.20

0.18

0.16

3.40

3.00

2.62

0.32

0.29

0.26

0.54

0.48

0.40

0.15

0.13

0.10

1.30

1.10

0.97

0.89

0.63

0.51

0.80

0.70

0.60

1.0

0.62

0.54

0.47

2.12

1.93

1.67

1.71

1.57

1.48

Jun’24

0.14

2.34

0.22

0.34

0.08

0.83

0.44

0.40

0.38

1.51

1.30

Sep’24 Dec’24 Mar’25 Jun’25

0.13

0.12

0.11

2.07

1.81

1.60

1.51

0.20

0.16

0.15

0.13

0.29

0.18

0.12

0.10

0.06

0.05

0.71

0.68

0.61

0.55

0.38

0.32

0.29

0.22

0.40

0.30

0.38

0.34

0.31

1.34

1.23

0.85

0.78

1.21

1.08

0.91

0.88

*indicates data as on 4QFY25

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 80: We cut our estimates slightly for private banks and raise PSBs’ earnings estimates by 1-3%

PAT (INR b)

Private Banks

AXSB

BANDHAN

DCBB

HDFCB

ICICIBC

IDFCFB

IIB

KMB

RBK

AUBANK

EQUITASB

Total Private Banks

YoY growth

PSU Banks

BOB

CBK

INBK

PNB

SBIN

UNBK

Total PSU Bank

YoY growth

Total for Banks

YoY growth

Other Financials

SBICARD

PAYTM

FY26E

273.0

29.1

7.8

729.8

507.0

24.3

30.8

153.3

41.5

10.6

26.7

3.6

1,837.5

8.6%

184.2

169.1

111.8

176.5

697.8

178.7

1,518.2

-0.8%

3,355.7

4.2%

27.2

1.9

Old estimates

FY27E

338.1

39.6

10.4

857.1

606.1

47.8

43.5

180.4

52.4

18.8

37.5

8.9

2,240.5

21.9%

233.4

190.7

123.5

211.9

775.5

193.7

1,728.7

13.9%

3,969.2

18.3%

36.1

8.6

FY28E

412.2

48.3

15.0

992.0

741.5

66.3

63.1

215.6

68.4

25.1

47.9

13.0

2,708.3

20.9%

292.6

223.2

137.4

250.0

891.4

223.1

2,017.7

16.7%

4,726.0

19.1%

43.5

15.6

Revised estimates

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

249.2

26.4

7.1

721.4

526.1

26.6

31.7

147.8

39.0

10.3

26.5

0.5

1,812.6

5.5%

189.0

190.7

118.5

155.3

718.0

165.3

1,536.8

0.4%

3,349.4

3.1%

24.8

4.0

313.6

36.7

10.0

871.6

599.5

47.5

43.5

177.9

49.9

18.9

36.1

7.0

2,212.3

22.1%

235.9

212.3

127.8

212.9

802.8

188.8

1,780.5

15.9%

3,992.9

19.2%

36.7

9.9

376.1

44.3

13.4

1,004.6

699.6

66.8

65.2

218.8

63.4

24.6

47.6

10.6

2,634.9

19.1%

295.1

239.9

140.8

253.2

921.5

212.6

2,063.2

15.9%

4,698.1

17.7%

44.4

15.8

FY26E

-8.7%

-9.5%

-8.8%

-1.2%

3.8%

9.4%

2.9%

-3.6%

-6.0%

-2.2%

-0.7%

-86.3%

-1.4%

Change (%)

FY27E

-7.2%

-7.3%

-4.4%

1.7%

-1.1%

-0.5%

0.0%

-1.4%

-4.8%

0.6%

-3.8%

-21.3%

-1.3%

FY28E

-8.8%

-8.3%

-10.6%

1.3%

-5.6%

0.8%

3.4%

1.5%

-7.3%

-2.1%

-0.5%

-18.4%

-2.7%

2.6%

12.7%

6.0%

-12.0%

2.9%

-7.5%

1.2%

-0.2%

1.1%

11.3%

3.5%

0.5%

3.5%

-2.5%

3.0%

0.6%

0.9%

7.5%

2.5%

1.3%

3.4%

-4.7%

2.3%

-0.6%

-8.7%

1.6%

14.4%

2.1%

1.0%

FINANCIALS – NBFC: Muted demand and asset quality trends for most products, except gold



NBFCs reported a subdued performance in terms of asset quality and loan growth in 1QFY26, impacted by a

weak macroeconomic environment and seasonal factors such as early monsoons. NBFCs (incl. HFCs) under our

coverage reported AUM growth of ~16% YoY/3.5% QoQ. Vehicle financiers (VFs) clocked AUM growth of 18%

YoY. Large HFCs (PNBHF and LICHF) grew 9% YoY, while affordable and small-ticket HFCs saw ~13% YoY growth.

NBFC-MFIs’ AUM declined ~23% YoY (down 7% QoQ), whereas gold loan NBFCs’ AUM rose ~36% YoY (driven by

strong growth in MUTH and MGFL). For our coverage companies (excl. PIEL), NII/PPoP/PAT grew 16%/12%/14%

YoY. Excluding MFIs, NII/PPoP/PAT grew 17%/14%/18% YoY.

For HFCs (including affordable HFCs), NIM showed divergent trends during the quarter. Large HFCs saw either a

stable trend or a contraction in NIM, with LIC reporting a ~20bp QoQ decline due to yield compression from

heightened competition in a declining interest rate environment. PNBHF’s margins remained stable, supported

by a higher share of affordable and emerging segments in its portfolio. In contrast, affordable HFCs reported

stable NIMs or an expansion, aided by a lower cost of borrowings (CoB), while yields remained broadly stable

(given that there were no PLR changes in the quarter). HomeFirst saw ~30bp QoQ expansion in NIM on the back

of reduced funding costs, while Aavas and Repco reported sequentially stable NIMs. Despite some easing in

borrowing costs, most NBFCs did not see any meaningful expansion in NIMs during the quarter, as significant

benefits in their CoB (from the cut in policy repo rates) will materialize only in 2HFY26. We expect a more visible

decline in borrowing costs for NBFCs/HFCs in the coming quarters, particularly as banks begin to reduce their

MCLR rates.

For VFs, asset quality deterioration was driven by seasonality and lower vehicle utilization caused by the early

onset of monsoons, which in turn put pressure on the borrower cash flows. However, with a favorable monsoon

outlook, asset quality for VFs is expected to improve in 2HFY26. VFs also noted that the broader macro

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



weakness (partly due to muted government capex) has also necessitated higher collection efforts as borrower

cash flows remained under strain for much of the last year.

NBFC-MFIs exhibited an improvement in PAR levels across geographies, including Karnataka, during the quarter.

Sequentially lower credit costs were supported by steady collection efforts and a decline in PAR accretion. MFIs

(except Spandana) also reported better overall collection efficiency and a decline in forward-flow rates, with

expectations of continued progress in the coming quarters. MFIs expect a significant recovery from 2HFY26, with

growth gaining momentum alongside further improvement in asset quality and normalization in credit costs.

Select NBFCs like PNBHF, PFC, REC, and ABCAP reported a sequential improvement in asset quality despite the

weak seasonality in the first quarter of the fiscal year.

HFCs/AHFCs – Modest demand trends; NIM compression for large HFCs; asset quality weakness likely seasonal

unless it turns out to be structural:

Demand trends during the quarter remained subdued, weighed down by

seasonal factors, heightened competitive intensity from banks, and a moderation in real estate activity in recent

quarters. In the prime housing segment, HFCs faced aggressive pricing competition from banks, leading to higher

portfolio attrition through balance transfers. Asset quality saw seasonal deterioration, with sequentially higher

credit costs, while regional issues such as the E-khata delays in Karnataka continued to dampen disbursements.

Margins were stable for PNBHF but contracted for LICHF, whereas HomeFirst posted a sequential margin

expansion, supported by lower borrowing costs. Loan growth was muted for LICHF. Large HFCs like LICHF, CANF

and Bajaj Housing reduced their PLR, driven by heightened competitive intensity or pass-through of their lower

CoB. On the contrary, affordable HFCs kept their PLR unchanged and reported broadly stable yields. Benefits in

CoB were marginal in 1Q, with more meaningful relief expected from 2Q/3Q onward as banks transmit lower

interest rates through their respective MCLR cuts.

VFs – Weakness persists in CVs, tractors relatively resilient; utilization remains low due to early onset of

monsoon:

Demand trends remained subdued for most segments, with tractors standing out as relatively

resilient. PV demand, particularly in the entry-level segment, remains soft, while certain CV categories continue

to face sustained stress. In contrast, demand for used cars remains strong, supported by stable asset prices and

relatively better affordability. VFs reported elevated credit costs, as the early arrival of monsoons led to lower

vehicle utilization and consequently weakness in borrower cash flows. Several NBFCs highlighted stress in the CV

segment, especially in small commercial vehicles. Disbursements grew 6% YoY for three VFs in our coverage

universe. While SHFL and CIFC have a diversified AUM mix, we have classified them under VFs for this exercise.

SHFL reported sequential NIM compression, primarily due to elevated liquidity levels on its balance sheet, while

margins remained broadly stable for CIFC. In contrast, MMFS saw an expansion in NIMs, driven by higher yields.

VFs saw no material reduction in CoB during the quarter, as banks largely maintained their MCLR, with only

marginal cuts coming toward the end of the quarter.

Diversified financiers – PL stress receding, stress in small-ticket unsecured MSME rears its head; micro-LAP

below INR500k ticket size also sees heightened stress:

Diversified lenders highlighted emerging stress in

unsecured MSME segments (especially in small-ticket loans with ATS of <INR1m) and the micro-LAP segment.

Credit costs were marginally elevated for diversified lenders amid a weak macro environment. However,

diversified lenders have now started exhibiting higher confidence in scaling up personal loans (PL). The focus

within this segment has increasingly shifted to prime and near-prime customers, with an emphasis on higher

ticket sizes and borrowers with strong CIBIL scores, which shows a more risk-calibrated lending approach.

Diversified lenders are focusing more on secured MSME segments due to rising stress in unsecured MSME.

Within the MFI business, LTFH has performed significantly better than the overall industry and its NBFC-MFI

peers. BAF shared that the MSME business is likely to see the slowest growth this year, with MSME AUM

expected to rise in single digits in FY26.

Gold financiers – Strong gold loan growth driven by relatively lower availability of unsecured loans; final gold

lending guidelines milder than draft:

Demand for gold loans was strong during the quarter. This was primarily

driven by lower availability of MFI/Unsecured PL and MSME loans and a steady rise in gold prices over the past

year. MUTH/MGFL reported ~40%/22% YoY growth in gold loans in 1QFY26. Asirvad shared that MFI peak stress

was behind in 4QFY25 and losses in MFI business will keep on declining, driven by moderation in credit costs and

improved AUM growth momentum going forward. While IIFL Finance saw an improvement in gold loan yields,

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



MGFL reported a decline in gold loan yields as part of its strategic move to align its pricing with gold loan NBFC

peers.

Microfinance lenders (MFIs) – Loan book continues to rundown; sequential decline in credit costs driven by

improvement in PAR rates; trend reversal on the horizon within the next 3-4 months:

NBFC-MFIs saw an

improvement in PAR levels and asset quality across geographies, with sequentially lower credit costs supported

by stronger center meeting attendance and healthier portfolio quality. MFIs also highlighted that the condition

in Karnataka appears to be stabilizing. MFI players are expected to focus on portfolio diversification, aided by

the recent regulatory change of lowering the qualifying asset requirement to 60%, which provides a supportive

framework. While AUM remained flat sequentially for CREDAG, Fusion and Spandana continued to see a

YoY/QoQ decline in their AUM because of muted disbursements and elevated technical write-offs. We believe a

trend reversal in the MFI sector is on the horizon; however, a consistent and sustained recovery over the next 3-

4 months will be crucial to validate this recovery as a definitive shift.

Power financiers – Muted loan growth; NIM expansion a positive; asset quality stable:

PFC and REC delivered a

mixed performance during the quarter, with healthy disbursements but sequentially muted loan growth due to

elevated repayments. Loan growth stood at ~16% YoY for PFC and ~10% YoY for REC. NIMs expanded by ~5bp

for PFC and ~10bp for REC, which was a positive factor. Asset quality remained stable, along with the

restructuring of TRN Energy. PFC and REC reported provision write-backs, aided by, among other things, the

rating upgrades for certain discoms, which led to a reduction in their standard asset provisioning.

Our view:

The weakening asset quality in the micro-LAP segment appears to stem from stress initially seen in

unsecured small-ticket loans, now gradually spilling into the small-ticket secured space. We believe the credit

cycle in micro-LAP (particularly in loans below INR500k) is lagging the MFI credit cycle by 6-9 months. Further,

the unsecured (small-ticket) MSME segment will continue to exhibit stress for the next few quarters as the

rationing of credit has already started in this segment. The interest rate cut cycle will be margin-accretive for

certain products and may provide a modest boost to loan demand. In our view, lenders will continue to prioritize

higher-quality lending and strengthen underwriting filters, leading to more selective growth in micro-LAP and

unsecured product segments in the foreseeable future.

Our preferred ideas are SHFL, LTFH and HomeFirst.

Positive Surprises:

PNBHF, Muthoot

Misses:

CREDAG, Poonawalla, Fusion

Rating Change:

Guidance highlights:

a) CIFC has guided for 20-23% loan growth in FY26 and remains confident of achieving at least

the lower end of its guidance range; b) MUTH guided for strong gold loan growth throughout the year and spreads of

9.5%; c) BAF guided for ~24%-25% AUM growth in FY26 and credit costs of 1.85%-1.95%; d) PNBHF guided for retail

recoveries to continue in FY26 and guided for retail loan growth of ~18%; and e) NBFC-MFIs witnessed improvement in

PAR rates and collection efficiencies and guided for stabilization in credit costs in 2HFY26.

Exhibit 81: PBT (excl. PIEL) grew 13% YoY and 6% QoQ for our NBFC coverage universe*

PBT - YoY growth (%)

-1

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. PIEL and Indostar

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 82: LICHF loan growth has lagged the industry, while

PNBHF retail loan growth has been gaining momentum

Q1 2025

1HFY25

9MFY25

FY25

Q1 2026

Exhibit 83: Loan growth moderated for Aavas, while it was

largely stable for Canfin and Repco

Q1 2025

20 20

1HFY25

9MFY25

FY25

Q1 2026

16 16

14 15

9 10 9 9

8 8 7 7

LICHF

PNBHF

Source: MOFSL, Company;

Note: YoY AUM growth for large HFCs

AAVAS

CANF

Repco

Source: MOFSL, Company;

Note: YoY AUM growth for affordable housing financiers

Exhibit 84: AUM growth for VFs moderated slightly because

of weak macros

Q1 2025

1HFY25

9MFY25

FY25

21 20 19

17 17

20 19

Q1 2026

33 30

Exhibit 85: Gold loan growth picking up pace, aided by

higher gold prices and lower availability of unsecured loans

Q1 2025

1HFY25

43 42

9MFY25

FY25

Q1 2026

18 19

SHFL

MMFS

CIFC

MUTH

MGFL

Source: MOFSL, Company

Note: YoY AUM growth for gold financiers

Source: MOFSL, Company

Note: YoY AUM growth for vehicle financiers

Exhibit 86: PAT (excl. PIEL) grew 14% YoY for our NBFC coverage universe*

INR m

AAVAS

ABCAP (NBFC)

ABCAP (HFC)

BAF

CANF

CIFC

Fivestar

HomeFirst

IIFL Finance

LTHF

LICHF

MMFSL

MASFIN

MGFL

Muthoot

PIEL

PNBHF

PFL

REPCO

SHFL

CREDAG

FUSION

SPANDANA

PFC

REC

Total (excl. PIEL)

1QFY26

2,776

18,585

3,770

1,02,270

3,628

31,838

5,774

1,941

12,947

26,238

20,658

20,122

1,625

13,804

34,732

9,017

7,460

6,393

1,966

57,725

9,060

2,730

1,300

54,692

55,671

4,97,703

NII

PPOP

PAT

NIM

YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1QFY26 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1QFY26 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1QFY26 YoY (bp) QoQ (bp)

1,904

12.3

-5.2

1,392

10.4

-9.4

6.8

-4

-2

13,245

10.3

7.7

6,890

11.0

5.7

5.8

-65

-4

1,830

101.6

26.2

1,540

81.7

27.2

4.2

-8

84,871

22.2

6.5

47,653

21.8

4.8

9.5

-24

-10

3,039

8.7

3.2

2,239

12.1

-4.3

3.8

24,117

30.4

3.4

11,359

20.6

-10.3

6.8

-8

-5

4,027

13.5

1.6

2,663

5.9

-4.6

19.0

-35

-43

1,682

41.2

15.5

1,189

35.5

13.6

5.9

-10

-1

8,688

26.3

32.0

2,334

-19.0

12.4

3.0

-88

-56

15,753

7.3

10.6

7,008

2.3

10.2

10.5

-68

-5

18,920

6.8

0.7

13,599

4.6

-0.6

2.7

-9

-18

13,530

19.3

11.6

5,295

3.2

-6.0

6.7

-17

1,549

30.9

2.2

839

19.1

3.8

7.7

-10

-4

6,609

-32.7

-3.3

1,325

-76.2

-165.2

12.8

-165

-63

27,887

62.6

29.8

20,463

89.7

35.7

12.6

3,873

63.2

-53.4

2,764

52.3

169.8

7.1

210

6,317

16.5

-2.3

5,335

23.3

-3.1

3.7

-1

3,245

-24.9

-2.5

626

-78.5

0.4

7.7

-21

-2

1,436

4.1

9.8

1,080

2.4

-6.1

5.2

41,924

8.8

-3.3

21,557

8.8

0.8

8.6

-51

-2

6,530

-7.9

3.0

602

-84.9

27.5

12.8

-20

-31

866

-70.9

-3.9

-923

159.0

-43.9

10.3

-130

170

-70

-37

-587

-120.5

-333.6

-3,602

-746.6

-17.1

10.5

-540

-180

-7

48,313

5.0

-26.2

45,015

21.1

-11.9

4.1

-52

-10

50,303

4.8

-18.4

44,510

29.3

5.1

3.8

-49

3,85,998

11.7

-2.9

2,39,988

3.5

Source: MOFSL, Company, *MOFSL universe excl. Indostar

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

FINANCIALS – CAPITAL MARKETS AND INSURANCE: Sequential recovery for capital market players;

subdued premium growth for general insurers; VNB margin expands for life insurers



Capital market activity recovers:

Capital market activity witnessed a healthy recovery during 1QFY26, barring

F&O activity. Cash volumes witnessed MoM growth of 2%/12%/2% in Apr’25/ May’25/Jun’25, while F&O

volumes declined 5%/1% MoM in May’25/Jun’25 after growing 5% MoM in Apr’25. A sustained slowdown was

observed in demat account additions at 6.7m in 1QFY26 vs. 7.1m in 4QFY25. ANGELONE witnessed a sequential

revenue growth, with the base being impacted by F&O regulations in the previous quarter (5% sequential rise in

F&O orders) and strong growth in MTF activity leading to better realizations for cash orders. Profit was hit by

spending in IPL and investments in new businesses.

Premium-to-notional turnover ratio improves for exchanges:

Strong growth in the premium turnover market

share (22.1% in Jun’25 vs 8.7% in Jun’24)—driven by an improving premium-to-notional turnover ratio and

increased non-expiry day trading activity—significantly boosted BSE’s top line and profitability. Star MF

continued to report healthy performance, marking a 28% YoY growth in revenue. Meanwhile, commodities

markets achieved new peaks backed by crude volatility and rising prices of precious metals. Led to a surge in

options volumes (77% YoY growth in total volumes), resulting in strong revenue growth for MCX. Options ADT

surged 84% YoY in 1QFY26, largely supported by a 379% YoY growth in bullion contracts and 31% YoY growth in

energy contracts. Futures ADT rose 56% YoY, fueled by 70%/52% YoY growth in bullion/energy contracts.

AMCs’ other income surges; flows on an uptrend:

MF industry’s QAAUM increased 7% QoQ to INR72.1t at the

end of Jun’25, led by strong SIP flows, with the share of equity QAAUM growing to 57.1% from 56.8% as of

Jun’24. Industry SIP flows continued to gain traction, with INR806b in 1QFY26 vs. INR783b in 4Q.

All AMCs

witnessed strong SIP flows during the quarter (all-time high industry SIP inflow of INR273b in Jun’25). The

companies remain optimistic about the flow momentum to sustain going forward. The yields have declined

slightly for AMCs as well as MF RTAs and distributors due to a telescopic pricing effect. Other income for all

players improved QoQ on the back of a favorable equity market, resulting in MTM gains.

Wealth managers

are

confident of maintaining momentum with respect to flows, while yields are expected to largely remain stable.

Decline in ULIPs hits growth; VNB margin expands due to a shift towards traditional products:

The life

insurance players reported a slowdown in premium growth, impacted by the slowdown in ULIP momentum and

high base. During 1QFY26, the life insurance industry experienced an APE growth of ~7% YoY, driven by ~10%

YoY growth reported by private life insurers, while LIC grew ~2% YoY. The shift in product mix towards

traditional products from ULIPs led to a strong expansion in the VNB margin across the industry. Management

teams across players guide a further expansion of margins, led by 1) an increased shift in product mix towards

par and non-par products, 2) higher contribution from high-ticket-size products, 3) higher sum assured and

better rider attachment rates, and 4) improvement in persistency. HDFCLIFE/SBILIFE/MAXLIFE/LIC reported an

APE growth of 13%/9%/15%/9%, while IPRU’s APE declined 5% YoY. VNB margins for HDFCLIFE/SBILIFE/ IPRU/

MAXLIFE/LIC expanded 10bp/60bp/50bp/260bp/150bp YoY.

Subdued industry growth; pricing actions to drive focus on margins amid elevated claims:

The general

insurance industry’s growth remained subdued, with partial recovery in the motor segment offset by the impact

of 1/n regulation on the health segment. ICICIGI continued to gain market share in the retail health segment

while prioritizing profitable growth in the motor segment to maintain combined ratios. STARHEAL implemented

a price hike across 65% of its retail health portfolio, with annual price increases planned to offset medical

inflation and improve product-level loss ratios. NIVABUPA raised prices by 7% in a flagship product during

1QFY26, and further high single-digit price hikes are anticipated. ICICIGI/STARHEAL/NIVABUPA’s YoY NEP growth

stood at 14%/12%/20%, though the claims ratio remained elevated in the health segment.

Valuation and view:

The capital market ecosystem experienced a healthy recovery, but exchanges and brokers could

see weakness in the near term, led by a subdued volume trajectory in Jul’25. Given the efforts to diversify revenue,

the impact can be cushioned. Mutual fund activity is likely to remain healthy, driven by improving fund performance

across major players and the emergence of a strong online acceptance of online distributors as a channel.

Wealth managers are expected to witness strong inflows going forward, with a portion of the recurring segment

increasing in the overall mix. Life insurance companies should see an improvement in VNB margins as the product

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

mix shifts toward retail protection and annuities. Recovery in auto sales and capex are key monitorables for growth

prospects among general insurance players.



Top Picks: HDFCAMC, UTIAMC, NUVAMA, and HDFCLIFE.

Surprises: MAXF, IPRULIFE, BSE, and ANANDRATHI.

Misses: CAMS, KFIN, and CDSL.

Guidance highlights:



360ONE:

FY26 guidance – Total gross flows of INR600-650b (INR100b – UBS, INR150-200b – B&K, and the

remaining INR300-350b – organically). The exit of two RMs caused gross outflows of INR35-40b (4–6% of AUM),

with some spillover into 2Q, but the new hirings are likely to offset the attrition-led impact. Yields: Overall yields

may reduce by ~2-3bp due to changes in business mix towards advisory. Lending yields are expected to remain

steady at ~4.8-5%. On the AMC side, yields from listed strategies are expected to dip ~2–3bp as more AUM is

added in this category.



NUVAMA:

Guides for FY26 growth of ~30% in wealth and 26–27% in private business on current flow run rates.

In Asset Services (domestic), to launch two new value-added offerings—RTA and Trusteeship services—for

AIF/PMS clients within six months; board approvals in place. For SIF, the MF license is underway; approvals

expected in 3–4 months, with the team/strategy ready for immediate ramp-up. Due to the Jane Street ban, 2Q

volumes would be hurt, but normalization is expected from Oct/Nov through new-client wins and scale-up of

existing clients.



ANGELONE:

New client additions and expansion of the MTF book will drive operating margins to recover to 40–

45% by 4QFY26. MTF book’s sustained momentum will be supported by advisory capability build-outs going

further, while the AMC segment plans to broaden its equity offerings and launch commodity-based funds.

Wealth management is likely to break even ahead of plan, though ongoing investments in new businesses will

weigh on margins by ~2.0–2.5%. A recent ESOP grant in the wealth business will add ~INR2.1b in FY26 costs,

spread evenly at ~INR550m per quarter over the next three quarters.



CAMS:

Expects no further impact on topline, EBITDA, or PAT, with 90% repricing of major customers being

completed. Full-year yield decline is guided at ~9% YoY, normalizing to 3–3.5% thereafter, with no significant

repricing over the next 18–24 months. Regular capex of ~INR600m (INR150m in 1Q) is planned to support

transaction growth, alongside ~INR500m already spent on platform re-architecture with INR1b in FY26 and

~INR1.25b in FY27. Overall expenses are expected to grow at ~10–11% YoY. CAMSPay mix stood at MF: Non-MF

50–55%:45–50% with guidance for MF share to decline to ~40%.



BSE:

Currently operating at 350 racks (75–80% utilization), plans to add ~140 racks in two phases during FY26.

From Jun’25, throttle pricing was introduced, cutting free orders per second from 10k to 40, with incremental

order fees based on subscribed speed starting at INR50k annually. Management expects that shifting expiry to

Thursday from Tuesday will have no adverse impact on premium turnover.



HDFC AMC:

Has a fully diversified SEBI-approved product suite, with no immediate launch plans but aims to

build leadership in existing offerings and has applied to SEBI for specialized investment funds (SIFs). Non-cash

ESOP and PSU-related expenses are estimated at INR2.05–2.1b over FY26–30, with ~INR560m in FY26,

~INR630m in FY27, ~INR510m in FY28, ~INR320m in FY29, and ~INR60m in FY30; an unallocated INR140m from

the previous ESOP scheme will be expensed, with ~INR110m in FY26 and ~INR30m in FY27.



NIPPON AMC:

Blended yield stood at 36bp, with management guiding for a 2–3bp annual decline due to

telescopic pricing. Commission rationalization, covering three schemes (~45% of AUM), has been completed,

with no further plans in the near term. In SIF, a seven-member team led by Mr. Andrew Holland is in place, with

launching products sooner; management positions SIF as a distinct vertical with significant growth potential.



ICICIGI:

Group health declined YoY on subdued credit disbursement and 1/n impact, with scope for market share

gains if pricing improves; retail health is seen improving via “Elevate” with an FY26 loss ratio target of 65–70%;

commercial lines focus on prudent risk selection and broad distribution; fire insurance may see incremental

growth ahead.



NIVABUPA:

With tighter cost controls and operational leverage, the company targets meeting the EoM

threshold in FY26; it is upgrading to an Oracle core system and enhancing AI for better customer experience.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Claims auto-adjudication suspension led to outstanding claims but should normalize post-security reviews.

Launched a chronic condition program in the app to cut claim costs via promoting better lifestyle and

medication adherence.

HDFCLIFE:

Management expects H2FY26 growth to outpace H1, though full-year growth will be below FY25.

Near-term VNB margins should remain range-bound due to slower growth and distribution expansion costs but

are likely to expand in the long term. The non-par mix is targeted to rise to the mid-20%, the par share to ~25%,

and the ULIP share to reduce over time. Stable counter share in the parent bank, along with strong growth from

other bank partners and ongoing digital integration, should improve channel mix in 2HFY26.

SBILIFE:

The company reaffirmed mid-teen APE growth for FY26, driven by non-par and protection launches, and

maintained VNB margin guidance of 26–28%. Credit life is expected to grow 20–25% YoY, supported by home

loan growth of 10–15% and better attachment rates. While agency growth lagged internal targets, productivity

is expected to improve over the next nine months. Bancassurance is expected to deliver stronger performance

ahead. Opex ratios, despite higher costs from branch and digital investments, are guided at 6–6.5% for FY26.

LIC:

Policy sales fell 15% YoY in 1Q due to surrender value regulations, but growth is expected to recover in

2HFY26. Margin levers include 1) a higher share of non-par products, 2) redesigned non-par guaranteed

offerings post-IRDAI changes, and 3) a shift to high-ticket products with better persistency and profitability.

While policy count productivity in agencies has moderated, average ticket size rose 23% YoY; improvement in

count-based productivity is expected ahead.

1QFY26

9,682

4,474

6,066

3,793

7,952

9,584

3,732

6,622

7,701

2,740

2,938

3,542

2,741

2,588

1QFY26

36,055

16,319

80,526

1QFY26

32,250

18,640

39,700

16,680

1,26,520

Revenue

YoY (%)

-13

QoQ (%)

-0

1QFY26

7,730

2,660

3,881

1,724

1,644

6,259

2,417

3,109

3,492

1,278

673

EBITDA

YoY (%)

-59

122

-7

QoQ (%)

-30

-2

1QFY26

7,476

2,771

3,957

2,539

1,145

5,382

2,032

2,872

2,639

939

518

1,080

773

1,025

1QFY26

2,625

-914

7,471

1QFY26

5,465

3,010

5,944

860

1,09,865

PAT

YoY (%)

-7

-61

104

-24

PAT

YoY (%)

-18

PAT

YoY (%)

-45

QoQ (%)

149

-34

-4

-9

QoQ (%)

-22

-27

126

-42

INR m

AMCs

HDFC

ABSL

NAM

UTI

Broking/Exchanges

ANGELONE

BSE

MCX

Wealth Management

360 ONE WAM

Nuvama

Anand Rathi

Prudent Corporate

Intermediaries

CAMS

KFIN Technologies

CDSL

General Insurance

STARHEAL

NIVA BUPA

ICICIGI

Life Insurance

HDFCLIFE

IPRU

SBILIFE

MAXFIN

LIC

-1

-3

Gross Premium

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

-30

-21

APE

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

-38

-5

-47

-27

-45

-33

1,543

-3

1,139

-7

1,305

-16

Underwriting Profit/(Loss)

1QFY26

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

717

-2,336

-2,931

VNB

1QFY26

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

8,090

-41

4,570

-3

-43

10,900

-34

3,350

-61

19,440

-45

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

HEALTHCARE: In-line 1Q; US generics under pressure; DF/hospitals outperform



1QFY26 was another quarter of in-line revenue/EBITDA/PAT for the pharma companies under our coverage.

Revenue moderated YoY (+9.5%) during 1QFY26 compared to the past few quarters. Notably, EBITDA decelerated

YoY for the second consecutive quarter. EBITDA grew at a lower rate of 8.6% YoY. Subsequently, PAT rose 12.5%

YoY. While sales growth was stable for the domestic formulation (DF) segment, US sales performance was muted,

dragging down the overall quarterly performance at the aggregate level.

The reduction in profitability due to increased competition in high-value products like g-Revlimid in the US market

was partly offset by control on operating costs during the quarter.

After consistent pressure for the past 12 months, management commentary indicated some stability in API prices.

This trend has largely benefitted DF brands-led pharma companies, whereas it has had an adverse impact on API

suppliers like DIVI, LAURUS, ALPM, and CIPLA.

Out of 25 companies under our coverage, eight companies delivered higher-than-estimated performance for the

quarter. About 10 companies delivered below-estimate earnings, while the remaining seven companies’

performance was largely in line with expectations. Specifically, ALKEM/LAURUS/LPC were strong outperformers,

whereas BIOS/IPCA were underperformers for the quarter.

Hospital companies under our coverage reported revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 18%/24%/31% YoY. These

companies have delivered robust growth momentum for at least nine quarters now.

Interestingly, the performance is predominantly driven by a higher number of patients treated and increased

average realization to some extent.

After 11 quarters,

US sales

declined YoY in 1QFY26. The increased competition in erstwhile high-potential drugs

and limited incremental business from new launches impacted the performance of companies’ US generics

business. US sales reduced by 1.5% YoY (CC terms) to USD2.4b for the quarter.

Among our coverage companies, DRRD/Cipla/ARBP posted 14%/10%/4% YoY decline in US sales, impacting the

overall performance of our coverage companies in US generics segment. LPC stood out with 22% YoY growth.

DRRD/CIPLA/ARBP faced increased competition in g-Revlimed, impacting their YoY performance. LPC’s YoY

growth was supported by g-Tolvaptan/g-Rivaroxaban. A low base of past year and new launches led to 16%/10%

YoY growth in US sales for TRP/ALPM.

On an aggregate basis,

DF business

reported YoY growth of 10.6%, led by strong growth in chronic therapies,

which was offset by a lower off-take in acute therapies. Among therapies, Cardiac, Respiratory, Neuro,

Antineoplast, and Urology delivered 12.5%/12.2%/10.2%/13.3%/10.2% YoY growth, outperforming IPM (8.6%

YoY growth). However, Anti-infectives, Derma, Gynaec and Gastro underperformed IPM by 280bp/260bp/

340bp/170bp. Among our coverage companies, SUN/Mankind/Ajanta Pharma delivered 14%/18%/16.1% YoY

growth. AJP outperformed the industry, led by superior execution in derma/pain/anti-diabetic.

Mankind’s growth was supported by BSV consolidation and 1.5x/1.6x outperformance to IPM in Cardiac/Anti-

diabetic, while SUN’s strong performance was driven by the launch of five new products and broad-based

growth in all therapies, with Anti-diabetic and CNS outperforming IPM by 2x and 1.4x, respectively.

Among our coverage companies that have reported earnings so far, six have seen earnings upgrades, while five

have seen earnings downgrades. Upgrades in FY26/FY27 earnings were observed in APHS (7% each), LAURUS

(15%/7%), ALKEM (7%/2%). PIRPHARM (down 7%/8%), BIOS (7%/3%), DIVI (8%/6%), and MANKIND (6%/6%)

witnessed maximum downgrades in earnings estimates.

Top picks:

SUNP, MAXH, IPCA

Surprises:

APHS, LAURUS, ALKEM

Misses:

BIOS, IPCA

Guidance highlights



SUNP

plans to file Illumya for psoriatic arthritis by end-CY25 and launch Unloxcyt in 2HFY26, following the recent

launch of Leqselvi with positive uptake. 1QFY26 saw slightly higher QoQ sales of G-Revlimid and 4/5 new

product launches in US/India. R&D spend guidance for FY26 remains at 6-8% of sales.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



DRRD

expects g-Revlimid sales to be stable in 2QFY26. DRRD targets 12m semaglutide pen sales in Canada in

FY26, pending litigation and approval, with in-house capacity from FY28. R&D expenses for FY26 are expected to

be in the range of 7-7.5% of total sales, while ETR is projected to be around 26%.

DIVI

aims to sustain double-digit revenue growth. It is executing INR20b projects for new and near-commercial

molecules and advancing pilot bio-catalysis with innovators. Capital WIP was INR14b at the end of Jun’25.

Overall capacity utilization was around 80%.

Cipla

maintained its EBITDA margin guidance of 23.5-24.5%, with a revenue target of USD1b in FY27. Cipla

recorded partial sales of g-Abraxane and Nilotinib, with full launches imminent. Cipla saw muted YoY growth in

India’s Rx segment in 1QFY26 but expects stronger growth in the remaining quarters.

BIOS

expects generics profitability to improve with launches of Liraglutide (EU/US), g-Entresto, and Micafungin

Everolimus in the near term. Insulin Aspart launch in the US is imminent, and RH-Insulin capacity in Malaysia has

been expanded. Biologics sales are 77% from advanced markets, with a small g-Revlimid contribution in 1Q.

LPC

guides for strong double-digit FY26 growth with 24-25% EBITDA margin, targeting Risperdal Consta (Sep’25)

and Ranibizumab (Jun’26) launches. It is expanding g-Spiriva reach and plans to launch g-Dalbavancin this year.

Namuscla US commercialization is targeted by FY29, with patient recruitment in progress.

ZYDUSLIF

guides for single-digit US growth in FY26 despite g-Revlimid pressure, backed by launches, clearances,

base business growth, and mirabegron sales. It aims for high-teens to mid-20s growth in emerging markets.

Biologics expansion includes scaling up Agenus and investing in whey protein production for launch next year.

APHS

is on track to achieve cash EBITDA breakeven (excluding ESOP cost) in HealthCo by 2QFY26/3QFY26.

Surgical revenue grew 14% YoY, led by a healthy momentum in CONGO (cardiac, oncology, neurosciences,

gastro, and ortho) therapies in 1Q. The redefinition of GMV related to Apollo Group Hospitals and the restated

GMV of INR8-9b would enable APHS to achieve EBITDA break-even in the digital platform.

LAURUS

expects strong FY26 CDMO growth, lifting GM guidance to 55-60%. ARV grew 17% YoY, but overall FY26

sales guidance remains stable. Bio segment challenges should ease, with new Gene/ADC and microbial

fermentation facilities underway. Capex of INR50b is planned over five years, with net debt/EBITDA at 2.2–2.5x.

GLAND

targets mid-teens FY26 revenue growth with 24-25% EBITDA margin. It expects Cenexi profitability to

improve after a weak 2Q. US sales fell on lower Enoxaparin demand, while g-Dalbavancin (from Sep’25) and a

CMS contract should aid US/EU growth.

TRP

plans to maintain FY26 EBITDA margin at 1Q levels, add 800 MRs, and proceed with JB Chemical acquisition,

pending CCI nod. It targets 8-10 launches annually in Brazil and the US, with growth from existing products,

while strict Ozempic guidelines and delayed Wegovy generics shape Brazil’s market dynamics.

IPCA

targets 9-10% FY26 revenue growth with 70-75bp YoY margin improvement, despite 1Q impact from

Unichem competition, currency provisions, and Ireland facility closure. Cardiovascular division restructuring and

400 MR additions should aid recovery. US pipeline includes one filing and 15-16 products in development.

For

MAXHEALTH,

excluding the new hospitals added since 4QFY24, the base hospitals delivered revenue/EBITDA

YoY growth of 13%/15% for the quarter. Forest clearance at Max Vikrant remains delayed due to the ongoing

dispute between DDA and the Delhi government over tree cutting in an eco-sensitive area. Net debt is expected

to increase by INR4b-INR5b by the end of FY26.

MEDANTA

plans to open a 300-bed Noida hospital in 2QFY26, while the 110-bed Ranchi facility was opened in

Jul’25. International patient mix shifted toward Africa and CIS, with limited ARPOB impact at Gurgaon.

Developing hospitals saw a slight ARPOB dip — Lucknow’s 11% drop was partly offset by an 8% rise in Patna.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 87: US sales declined 1.5% YoY (CC terms)

Growth YoY (%)

26.6

13.2

10.5

14.1

11.1

10.1

2.7

Exhibit 88: DF sales grew 10.4% YoY

DF sales growth YoY (%)

15.2

12.7

6.0

(1.5)

8.8

9.3

8.2

8.5

11.1

10.5

10.4

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 89: 57 Final ANDAs approved on aggregate basis for our coverage universe in 1Q

Final Approval

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 90: Aggregate EBITDA up 8.6% YoY to INR186b for pharma universe

Aggregate EBITDA (INRb)

31.8

250

200

Aggregate EBITDA Growth (%)

35.0

22.7

16.6

113

(12.9)

1QFY23

3.2

6.7

10.9

5.1

17.0

150

21.9

30.0

18.7

8.6

25.0

20.0

8.7

15.0

10.0

100

5.0

(5 .0)

135

2QFY23

136

3QFY23

129

4QFY23

149

1QFY24

157

2QFY24

143

3QFY24

151

4QFY24

183

1QFY25

171

2QFY25

175

3QFY25

179

4QFY25

199

1QFY26

(1 0.0)

(1 5.0)

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 91: Aggregate PAT up 12.5% YoY for pharma companies under coverage

Aggregate PAT (INRb)

140

Aggregate PAT Growth (%)

34.5

40.0

120

23.2

(4.0)

(15.7)

(10.1)

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

(0.5)

14.5

9.9

28.4

13.9

24.9

20.1

12.5

30.0

100

20.0

10.0

(1 0.0)

112

1QFY25

113

2QFY25

111

3QFY25

118

4QFY25

126

(2 0.0)

1QFY26

Ex-APHS/MAXHEALT/MEDANTA

Source: MOFSL, Company

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 92: USFDA inspection history of our coverage companies for the quarter

Company

Sun Pharmaceuticals

Aurobindo Pharma

Dr Reddy Lab

Zydus

Lupin

Glenmark

Cipla

Alembic Pharma

Inspection Date

Jun-25

Apr-25

May-25

Apr-25

Jun-25

Inspection Facility

Halol Plant, Gujarat

Raleigh Plant

Telengana-API Plant

Gujarat-API Plant

Dabhasa- API Plant

Nagpur Injectable Plant

Monroe

Bommasandra Plant, Bengaluru

API Facility, Gujarat

Outcome

Form 483

EIR

Form 483

EIR

Observations

VAI

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 93: Performance of top therapies in Jun’25 - (INR b)

MAT

Jun’25 Market Growth

value share (%) (%)

(INR b)

2,382

310

256

212

189

186

165

144

115

100.0

13.0

10.8

10.7

8.9

7.9

7.8

6.9

6.1

4.8

2.7

1.9

2.3

1.5

8.0

11.8

5.1

8.5

8.4

5.5

7.3

7.9

8.6

9.1

3.8

12.2

5.4

12.7

5.9

YoY growth (%) in the last eight quarters

One

month

Therapy

Sep'23 Dec'23 Mar'24 Jun'24 Sep'24 Dec'24 Mar'25 Jun'25 Jun'25

7.1

9.3

0.1

8.6

4.8

0.0

7.3

7.4

5.6

8.2

8.1

25.6

20.5

14.4

8.0

8.1

8.4

7.8

9.4

5.7

5.5

8.3

8.6

3.6

8.8

6.6

24.3

1.4

12.4

6.1

5.7

10.8

-3.1

5.5

7.1

-2.7

6.0

6.5

8.2

8.0

5.2

21.6

4.6

14.0

3.2

9.0

12.5

6.5

11.4

7.6

1.7

8.4

8.7

9.8

8.4

6.3

21.1

5.6

13.8

8.7

8.3

12.1

8.1

9.8

9.1

2.8

7.7

8.0

9.7

9.4

3.0

12.0

-3.6

13.2

5.3

7.6

12.2

2.4

7.6

8.9

4.5

7.8

8.0

11.2

8.1

3.3

12.4

10.4

14.3

4.7

7.5

10.3

3.9

10.1

7.1

3.9

6.6

7.6

7.4

8.9

3.4

11.0

8.0

13.3

5.9

8.6

12.5

5.8

6.9

8.6

12.2

6.9

7.9

6.0

10.2

5.2

13.3

8.3

10.2

7.7

11.5

14.8

10.9

9.5

10.5

18.9

11.0

10.8

8.8

11.8

6.9

13.0

9.1

12.9

11.0

IPM

Cardiac

Anti-Infectives

Gastro Intestinal

Anti Diabetic

Respiratory

Pain / Analgesics

Vitamins/Minerals/Nutrients

Derma

Neuro / Cns

Gynaec.

Antineoplast/Immunomodulator

Ophthal / Otologicals

Urology

Hormones

Source: IQVIA, MOFSL

Infrastructure: NHAI awarding remains muted as of FY26YTD; delays in appointed dates hurt execution



Execution weak on sluggish awarding:

The pace of project awarding by NHAI has remained muted in the initial

months of FY26, with only ~180km awarded during Apr’25–Aug’25 against the annual target of 5,000km. The

subdued awarding, coupled with delays in land acquisition, weighed on execution for road EPC players.

Companies within our coverage universe (ex-IRB) reported a 16% YoY revenue decline in 1QFY26, with KNR/GRIL

witnessing a 42%/4% YoY dip. With awarding momentum yet to pick up, both KNR and GRIL are actively pursuing

diversification into non-road infrastructure segments such as power transmission, water projects, and solar EPC

to broaden their order books. IRB’s revenue grew by 13% YoY.

Margins under pressure; a strong tender pipeline offers recovery potential:

Our coverage universe companies

(ex-IRB) experienced a 150bp YoY dip in gross margin and 140bp YoY contraction in EBITDA margin for 1QFY26

due to elevated input costs. Despite the weak awarding pace so far, the tender pipeline remains robust, with

substantial inflows expected in the coming quarters. Execution momentum is projected to improve from

2HFY26, aided by the resumption of project clearances and progress in land acquisition. GRIL has set an FY26

order inflow target of INR220b, while KNR is aiming for INR70b.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Elevated input costs keep margins under check:

Our coverage universe companies witnessed a YoY dip in gross

and EBITDA margins during the quarter, reflecting elevated costs. Though commodity prices have eased from

their peaks, cement prices remain ~8% higher than Oct’23 levels and other construction inputs continue to trade

at elevated levels.

Focus on asset monetization:

For FY26, NHAI has set an asset monetization target of INR300b (vs INR287b

achieved in FY25). The monetization drive will be executed through the Toll-Operate-Transfer (ToT) model and

Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs). A pool of 24 assets covering 1,472km has been earmarked for

monetization, with proceeds to be deployed for highway development, debt repayment, and generating returns

for investors. FASTag toll collections rose ~16% YoY in volume and ~20% YoY in value during Apr’25–Jul’25,

reinforcing monetization prospects.

Top picks:

Awarding activities by NHAI and execution have been muted and are expected to improve only in

2HFY26. Companies with decent order backlogs, a solid financial position, and involvement in multiple segments

are well-positioned to benefit in the near to medium term.

Exhibit 94: Revenue declined ~16% YoY for our coverage

universe

Infra aggregate sales (INR b)

Exhibit 95: Gross margin dipped on a YoY basis

Infra aggregate gross margin (%)

31.2

33.3

25.2

27.1

33.3

27.2

19.8

22.1

27.9

23.1

27.6

26.3

25.9

26.2

28.0

26.5

26.6

24.7

Exhibit 96: EBITDA margin contracted on a YoY basis

Infra aggregate EBITDA margin (%)

15.8

14.3

13.8

15.1

Exhibit 97: APAT margin improved on a YoY basis

Infra aggregate APAT margin (%)

13.3

12.9

11.7

10.7 10.4

8.7

14.1

12.9

14.0

15.0

12.7

10.1

11.2

8.9

Note: Data in charts above is for our coverage universe excluding IRB

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

LOGISTICS: Modest revenue growth in 1Q; volumes remain muted, while private port operators sustain

outperformance



Logistics sector posts modest revenue growth; margins aided by price hikes, but volumes remain subdued:

Logistics companies (excl. APSEZ and JSWINFRA) posted ~6% YoY revenue growth in 1Q FY26, reflecting modest

improvement in demand over last year. While price hikes and selective yield improvement supported revenue

gains, overall volume growth remained muted across several sub-segments. Express logistics players continued

to face competitive intensity and soft demand from e-commerce and SME clients, while road transportation

volumes were constrained by sluggish consumption and uneven industrial activity in 1Q FY26. APSEZ and

JSWINFRA reported 11% and 6% YoY growth in cargo volumes, respectively. In FY25, APSEZ managed ~27% of

the country’s total cargo and ~45% of container cargo. With volume ramp-up at recently acquired

ports/terminals, volumes are expected to be strong ahead for APSEZ and JSWINFRA.

EBITDA margin inches up YoY due to muted volume growth and high operating expenses:

Gross margin for our

coverage universe, barring APSEZ and JSWINFRA, stood at 29.5% in 1QFY26 (up 100bp YoY and flat QoQ). EBITDA

margin improved marginally by 60bp YoY, aided by better pricing discipline, targeted cost control measures, and

operational efficiencies in organized networks. However, the benefits were partly offset by elevated input costs,

including fuel and toll charges, and by a lack of strong volume leverage. APSEZ’s margin stood at 60.2% (down

80bp YoY and up 120bp QoQ), while JSWINFRA’s margin was 47.5% (down 350bp YoY and 250bp QoQ).

Organized players with a pan-India network and technological advantage to gain higher market share:

The

introduction of GST, e-way bills, and reduced e-invoicing turnover limits led to businesses partnering with

organized logistics providers. Express companies are expanding their infrastructure and digitalizing operations.

This positions them to capture higher volumes. The government's port privatization efforts offer opportunities,

with APSEZ and JSWINFRA well-placed to benefit due to their strong balance sheets.

Top picks:

JSWINFRA is our preferred pick in this space.

Guidance



APSEZ:

In FY26, APSEZ expects cargo volumes of 505-515mmt, revenue of INR360-380b, EBITDA of INR210-220b,

and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0-2.5x. It plans a capex of INR120b, primarily for ports (INR 60b), logistics,

and renewables.



JSWINFRA:

Port capacity is set to reach 400 MTPA by FY30, with the current capacity rising to 177 MTPA.

Management targets INR 80b revenue, INR20b EBITDA, and INR 90b capex for JSW Ports Logistics Ltd. JSWINFRA

plans to invest INR 55b in capex (vs. INR 24.4b in FY25), including INR 40b for ports and INR 15b for logistics.



Delhivery:

Revenue growth to be led by Express Parcel and PTL. Management targets a 6–7% EBITDA margin in

FY26 despite cost pressures. Peak volumes are expected in 2Q and early 3QFY26.



VRLL:

Volumes to decline 8–9% YoY in 2QFY26, stabilize in 3Q, and return to growth path in 4QFY26. FY26

volumes to remain flattish; FY27 volume growth is expected at 7–8% YoY. Realizations were steady at

~INR7,800/ton; margin stood at 18–19% despite higher costs. Branch expansion is slower than the earlier plan of

80–100 annually.



TRPC:

For FY26, it targets 10–12% revenue and profit growth, aided by the China+1 strategy, PLI scheme, and

infrastructure push. Capex of INR 4.5b is planned for FY26.



BDE:

BDE anticipates high single- to low double-digit YoY growth in FY26–27, aims to improve margins without

specific guidance, and expects B2C ground express growth to vary with economic conditions while leveraging

better infrastructure for stronger pricing.



CCRI:

For FY26, CCRI targets 13% overall volume growth, driven by 10% EXIM and 20% domestic growth. The

commissioning of the Western DFC to JNPT by Dec’25 is expected to boost rail volumes by shifting light cargo

from road.



MLL:

MLL aims to build integrated logistics capabilities with enhanced tech and automation as differentiators. It

targets mid-to-high teens revenue growth and 18% RoE by FY26, with a long-term goal of becoming an INR 100b

logistics provider, while staying optimistic about narrowing losses as express volumes recover.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



TCIE:

The company expects 7–8% tonnage and 10–12% revenue growth in FY26, driven by better yields and

network expansion, and a 150–200bp margin improvement from price hikes, cost control, and a higher share of

rail/air express. Management earmarked INR3b capex for FY26–27.

Exhibit 99: Gross margin improves on a YoY basis

MOSL universe Logistics Gross margin (%)

29.3

7.9

4.5

6.4

29.5

29.0

29.1

28.5

Exhibit 98: Sales improved ~6% YoY for our Coverage

Universe

Logistics aggregate YoY sales growth (%)

9.4

6.4

2.2

9.5

9.4

29.0

29.6

28.6

29.5

Exhibit 100: EBITDA margin improves on a YoY basis primarily due to price hikes

11.3

10.7

9.7

MOSL universe Logistics EBITDA margin (%)

11.4

10.6

10.2

11.0

11.1

10.9

Note: Data in charts above is for our coverage universe excluding APSEZ & JSWINFRA

Source: Company, MOFSL

METALS: Lower costs and healthy NSR lead to strong performance; volume remains muted

Muted volumes in 1Q, led by scheduled maintenance and the early onset of monsoon

Ferrous:

Companies within our coverage universe reported sales volume growth of 3% YoY in 1QFY26, but a 13%

decline QoQ, impacted by maintenance shutdowns and the early onset of monsoon. JSPL/JSTL reported an 11-12%

QoQ volume decline, while TATA/SAIL saw a 15% QoQ decline.

Non-Ferrous:

HNDL’s domestic aluminum volume declined 2% QoQ (-1% YoY), while copper volume declined 8%

QoQ (+4% YoY). Novelis (HNDL overseas the aluminum business) reported flat volumes due to subdued global

demand and trade tensions. HZ’s zinc/lead volumes decline 8/14% QoQ (-5/-6% YoY). NACL’s aluminum sales fell

10% QoQ (+3% YoY), while alumina sales declined 12% QoQ.

Mining:

COAL’s sales (dispatches) declined 5% QoQ and 4% YoY at 191mt. NMDC’s sales declined 9% QoQ but rose

14% YoY to 11.5mt, due to a low base.



Ferrous ASP rebounded QoQ while non-ferrous remained soft:

Aggregate revenue for ferrous companies under

coverage stood flat YoY but declined 6% QoQ, led by muted volumes, which were partially offset by healthy NSR.

Ferrous prices increased INR2,500-3,000/t by the end of Mar’25, supported by safeguard duty. Average

realization for ferrous companies under our coverage rose 7% QoQ. Aggregate revenue for non-ferrous

companies declined 5% QoQ but rose 10% YoY. HNDL’s revenue declined 1% QoQ (+13% YoY) in 1QFY26,

whereas HZ/VEDL’s revenue dipped 15/7% QoQ.



Ferrous margins expanded QoQ amid better NSR and muted costs; muted volume hit non-ferrous earnings:



Ferrous:

Aggregate EBITDA for our coverage companies increased 10% QoQ and 19% YoY, driven by healthy NSR

and muted costs. EBITDA/t for JSPL/JSTL/TATA improved 30% QoQ to INR15,800/11,300/10,400 per ton,

respectively. TATA’s consolidated margin also expanded as EU turned profitable, reporting an EBITDA of USD8/t



August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

during the quarter. EBITDA/t for JDSL increased to INR20,900/t (+27% QoQ), supported by healthy NSR and

muted costs.



Non-ferrous:

EBITDA for non-ferrous companies rose 4% YoY but declined ~17% QoQ, driven by muted volumes,

which were partially offset by favorable pricing and muted costs during the quarter. The largest decline was seen

in NACL, where EBITDA fell 46% QoQ (+60% YoY), driven by softening alumina prices and volumes.



Ferrous - Decent operating profit drove PAT growth:

Aggregate APAT for ferrous companies increased 14% QoQ

and 59% YoY in 1QFY26, led by strong operating performance supported by better NSR and muted costs. Non-

ferrous companies’ aggregate APAT declined 24% QoQ (+6% YoY), driven by muted operating performance in

1Q.



Top picks:

JSTL, JDSL, and JSP



Surprises:

TATA and COAL

Capacity enhancement:

a) Ferrous:

TATA is doubling its domestic crude steel capacity to 40mt from 21mt. The

5mtpa Kalinganagar facility was recently commissioned, with other associated facilities scheduled for commissioning

in the coming years. Similarly, JSP is doubling its finished steel capacity to 13.75mt by FY26 from 7.25mt. JSTL’s

5mtpa Vijayanagar integrated facility (Sinter and BF) has been commissioned, and other expansions—such as Dolvi

phase-III and debottlenecking—are expected to raise capacity to 42mtpa by Sep’27. SAIL plans to increase its crude

steel capacity from 20mtpa to 35mtpa by the end of FY31 in a phased manner.

b) Non-ferrous:

Novelis’ (HNDL) Bay

Minette facility is expected to be completed in 2HCY26, with a full ramp-up anticipated within 18-24 months. VEDL’s

Lanjigarh Train-1 is ramping up steadily, while the ongoing Train-2 expansion of 1.5mtpa is expected to be

completed in 2HFY26. At Zinc International, the Phase 2 expansion project is also expected to be commissioned by

2HFY26. HZ’s debottlenecking at Dariba Smelting Complex is expected to be completed by 2QFY26, with

debottlenecking at the Chanderiya lead-zinc smelter targeted for 1QFY27. NACL is expanding its alumina refinery

(5th Stream) by 1mtpa, aiming for completion by Jan-Feb’26.

Guidance highlights:



TATA:

India NSR is expected to be INR2,000/t lower in 2QFY26 compared to 1Q, due to seasonal weakness and

domestic supply pressure. Coking coal consumption costs are projected to reduce by USD10/t in both India and

the Netherlands during 2QFY26. Additionally, iron ore costs in the Netherlands are expected to decline USD7-8/t

in 2QFY26, further aiding margins. TATA achieved INR29b in cost savings in 1QFY26, with INR11b from India,

INR14b from the Netherlands, and INR4b from UK operations. The total cost savings target of INR115b is

expected to be achieved within 12-18 months, with INR44b (INR15b in FY25 and INR29b in 1QFY26) already

realized.



JSTL:

The company expects volume growth in 2QFY26 as planned shutdowns conclude and operations at Dolvi

and BPSL stabilize. Blended coking coal costs were ~USD160/t in 1QFY26 and are likely to stabilize in the coming

quarters. Management foresees a marginal coking cost reduction of USD5/t in 2QFY26. Steel prices softened in

Jun’25 (HRC prices down by ~INR1,000/t) and continued to show softness in Jul’25, led by global uncertainties,

rising cheaper imports into India, and seasonal monsoon impacts on infrastructure and construction demand.

Management expects cost efficiencies to improve in 2QFY26, led by: 1) lower coking coal costs (USD5/t), 2)

improved operational efficiencies at JVML (potential cost savings of up to INR1,500/t QoQ), and 3) reduced iron

ore costs due to increased captive sourcing and beneficiation.



JSP:

Management reiterated its FY26 crude steel production guidance of 9-10mt, with incremental volumes of

0.2-0.3mt expected from existing facilities and 0.7–1.6mt from new expansions. The reduction in raw material

costs was driven by savings in coking coal, PCI, scrap, and other inputs, along with the absence of one-off

charges from 4Q. Coking coal costs reduced USD11/t in 1QFY26 (in line with guidance) and are expected to

decline by another USD5/t in 2QFY26. Domestic steel prices are currently 5-7% lower than 1QFY26, with a

potential recovery anticipated later in 2QFY26. Management expects iron ore costs to remain flat QoQ in

2QFY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



HNDL:

Cost of production (CoP) for upstream aluminum fell 3% QoQ in 1QFY26, driven by a higher linkage coal

mix (63%). Management guided CoP to increase by ~3% QoQ in 2QFY26, citing monsoon impacts and higher coal

prices. The company targets aluminum downstream EBITDA of USD250-300/t in the coming quarters as the FRP

ramp-up continues. For the Aditya Alumina Refinery expansion, all orders have been placed, EC received, and

construction has started, with commissioning targeted by FY28.

JDSL:

Management reiterated its volume growth guidance of 9-10% YoY for FY26, with capacity utilization

expected at 80-85%. JSL saw a 12% QoQ increase in higher-margin Cold Rolled (CR) volumes in 1QFY26 and has

guided for a further ~15-20% increase in 2H, supported by ramp-up at Chromeni (now at 65% utilization and

targeting 80-85%). The company aims to increase the CR share to 75% of its total melting capacity, indicating a

long-term push toward higher-margin products. The company has maintained its EBITDA/t guidance of

INR19,000-21,000/t for FY26, despite volatile raw material prices. Management expects LME-nickel prices to

remain range-bound between USD15,000 and 16,000/t in the near term.

VEDL/HZ:

Domestic market demand remains a key lever, limiting exposure to US tariffs. Vedanta expects

aluminum CoP to fall below USD1,700/t in 2HFY26, aided by a higher share of captive alumina and low power

costs. Alumina costs are likely to decline USD80-100/t over the next two quarters, with ~ 60% of the reduction

coming from the increased captive mix at Lanjigarh, and the remaining 40% attributed to softer market alumina

prices. Power costs are projected to remain at around USD500/t, although 2QFY26 may see a temporary rise due

to planned maintenance at power plants.

Exhibit 102: Coking coal (USD/t) prices moderated

significantly from their peak and are now range-bound near

USD200/t

800

600

500

250

400

200

Exhibit 101: Domestic spot steel spreads (USD/t) recovered

close to LTA

Domestic HRC -RM Spreads (USD/t)

750

Source: MOFSL, Steelmint

Exhibit 103: HRC (INR/t) prices softened to INR50,000/t

amid muted demand

95,000

81,000

67,000

53,000

39,000

25,000

Exhibit 104: Rebar (INR/t) prices corrected to 50,000/t due

to the early onset of monsoon

80,000

65,000

50,000

35,000

20,000

Source: MOFSL, Steelmint

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 105: Aluminum prices remained at ~USD2,500/t

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Exhibit 106: Zinc prices rebound to USD2,700/t levels

5,000

4,000

3,000

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg

Exhibit 107: Copper prices steady at USD10,000/t levels

12,500

10,500

8,500

Exhibit 108: Lead prices hover at USD20,000/t

3,000

2,500

2,000

6,500

4,500

1,500

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg

Exhibit 109: EBITDA/t for steel companies under our coverage (consolidated)

EBITDA/t

JSW Steel

Tata Steel

SAIL

JSPL

JDSL

2QFY24

12,438

6,037

4,429

11,372

22,621

3QFY24

11,967

8,031

5,638

15,705

24,339

4QFY24

9,100

8,271

3,879

12,162

18,161

1QFY25

9,003

9,059

5,536

13,585

20,964

2QFY25

8,869

7,343

3,111

11,893

21,000

3QFY25

8,314

9,268

4,582

11,494

20,536

4QFY25

1QFY26

8,515

11,324

7,874

10,432

6,536

5,704

11,651

15,819

16,499

20,915

Source: MOFSL, Company

OIL & GAS: Inventory losses weigh on OMCs earnings; CGD margins steady, volume growth key



Overall performance:

Revenue came in line with our estimates (flat YoY). However, excluding OMCs, revenue was

6% below our estimates (flat YoY). EBITDA was 6% below estimates (up 17% YoY). Excluding OMCs, EBITDA

remained in line (flat YoY). Adjusted PAT was 11% below estimates (up 27% YoY), primarily as OMCs, GAIL, and

OINL missed estimates. Excluding OMCs, adjusted PAT was 9% below estimates (flat YoY).

RIL:

RIL's consolidated EBITDA for 1QFY26 declined 2% QoQ (+11% YoY) to INR429b (5% miss), primarily due to

weaker performance in Retail and O2C. QoQ, O2C EBITDA was impacted by planned maintenance activities (3.5%

QoQ decline in throughput), higher feedstock costs, and increased freight expenses. The sequential decline in

E&P EBITDA was driven by lower oil & gas realization at both KGD6 and CBM.

Upstream:

ONGC’s/OINL’s

1QFY26 revenue came in 5% above our estimate at INR320b/INR50b, as both oil and

gas sales stood in line with estimates. Oil realization stood in the range of USD66-67/bbl for upstream companies.

ONGC’s EBITDA stood 12% above our estimates, while OINL’s EBITDA came in 26% below estimates.

OMCs: Lower-than-expected GRM drags earnings despite strong marketing margins:

HPCL/BPCL/IOCL

reported

EBITDA 9%/12%/16% below our estimates, primarily due to higher-than-expected inventory losses. While OMCs

reported a 10-24% beat on marketing margin estimates, their reported PAT stood 11-20% below estimates.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

According to the 8

Aug’25 PIB release, the Union Cabinet approved INR300b compensation for PSU OMCs,

resulting in a 5-9% boost to FY27E BVPS.



CGDs:

MAHGL’s

EBITDA came in 20% above our estimates, while

GUJGA’s/IGL’s

EBITDA was 8%/10% below

estimates, respectively. Total volumes for MAHGL/IGL were broadly in line with expectations at 4.2/9.1mmscmd,

respectively, whereas GUJGA’s volumes were 7% below estimates at 8.9mmscmd.



Gas utilities:

Both GAIL and GUJS witnessed soft transmission volumes amid subdued demand from refineries,

petchem, fertilizer, and CGD segments.

GAIL’s

EBITDA came in 7% below estimates, as the petchem and LPG

segments reported weak performance. Natural gas (NG) transmission volumes stood below our estimate at

~121mmscmd.

GUJS’s

EBITDA was 24% above our estimates, driven by transmission volumes of 29.7mmscmd,

which was 14% higher than expected, and lower-than-estimated opex. The implied tariff stood in line at

INR863/mmscm.

PLNG’s

EBITDA was 5% below our estimate. PAT came in line with our estimate, as other income

was above estimates. Total volumes came in 6% above our estimate, primarily due to higher third-party and

service cargos.



Others:

MRPL’s

EBITDA came in significantly below our estimates, primarily due to lower-than-expected reported

GRM of ~USD3.9/bbl, compared to our estimate of USD7.5/bbl. Adjusting for inventory gains, core GRM stood at

~USD5.9/bbl. MRPL reported a net loss of INR2.7b, as interest expenses stood above estimates and other income

was below estimates, while refining throughput came in line with estimates at 3.5mmt.

CSTRL’s

results were in line

with our estimates. EBITDA margin expanded 30bp YoY/175bp QoQ. Its 2Q volumes stood in line with our

estimates at 66m liters (up 8% YoY). Volumes were in line with expectations at 66m liters.



Ratings revisions:

We downgrade both ONGC and OINL to Neutral as we cut FY26/27 SA PAT by 6-11% for both

companies. Despite recent seasonal strength, we believe the oil price outlook remains muted as OPEC+ spare

capacity remains at a multi-year high. Moreover, volume growth execution remains weak (in fact, has been

disappointing recently), and higher exploration intensity implies that dry-well write-offs will likely continue to weigh

on earnings.



Top picks:

PLNG’s valuations imply that the stock is at a point of maximum pessimism:

We recently upgraded

PLNG to BUY (Tide

is turning, slowly).

PLNG trades at 8.8xFY27E EPS compared to its historical one-year forward

P/E of 10.4x. Our DCF-based TP of INR410/sh (WACC: 11.2%, TG = 2%) assumes a 10% tariff cut in FY28, followed

by a 4% increase for both the terminals. While we have incorporated the full capex for the petchem plant, we

value it conservatively at 0.5x FY29E P/B and discount this back to FY27E. Barring

PLNG,

we do not see strong

BUYs in the O&G space in general, as valuations are no longer inexpensive. However, after the recent correction,

we do like

HPCL

(LPG compensation boosts FY27 BVPS by 9%) and

MAHGL

(potential price hikes expected in 2H).



Surprise:

GUJS and MAHGL



Misses:

Reliance, HPCL, BPCL, IOCL, GAIL, and OINL

Guidance highlights:



Upstream:

ONGC:

Management has lowered its FY26 standalone production guidance to 19.93mmt for oil and

20.11mmtoe for gas. For FY27, overall production is guided at 21mmtoe. Production of both oil and gas is

expected to ramp up from Jan-Feb’26, with gas output projected to reach 6-7mmscmd by the end of FY26. FY26

capex guidance is maintained at INR300-350b.

OINL:

Management has guided oil and gas production targets of

3.7mmt/3.65bcm for FY26, and 3.95mmt/4.31bcm for FY27. OINL plans to incur standalone capex of INR70b in

FY26, while NRL has planned capex of INR91.3b for FY26 and INR73b for FY27. Capacity utilization at NRL’s new

refinery is expected to reach 40% in 2HFY27 and 80% in FY28.



OMCs:

HPCL’s

management has guided for capacity utilization of 10-15%/35-40% for FY26/FY27. LPG cavern

(80tmt) (underground LPG storage) in Mangalore is ready and scheduled for commissioning in 2QFY26. HRRL’s

refinery section is expected to commence operations in the next couple of months.

BPCL’s

FY26-27 capex

guidance is maintained at INR200b/INR250b and INR300b for FY28-29. The Bina refinery has reached 14%

physical progress. The company expects the Russian crude proportion to remain steady throughout the year.



CGDs:

IGL’s

management has guided for an EBITDA margin of INR7–8/scm and volumes of 10mmscmd by FY26-

end. The company expects long-term volume growth of 10% YoY. FY26 capex is guided at INR14-15b, with plans

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



to add 102 new CNG stations during the year.

MAHGL’s

management has maintained its EBITDA margin guidance

at INR9-11/scm. For FY26, the company targets adding 80 new CNG stations, with a capex outlay of INR13b.

GUJGA:

FY26 capex is expected to be INR8-10b. GUJGA is expanding into propane/LPG sales, aiming to capture

25% of the market by FY26-end (1.2–1.3mmscmd) and subsequently scale up further. The company is targeting

long-term contracts and engaging with bulk customers to drive growth.

Others:

GAIL:

Management has lowered its transmission guidance to 127-128mmscmd/135-136mmscmd for

FY26/27. The FY27 capex target is set at INR120b, with allocations of INR25b for transmission, INR40b for

petchem, INR20b for renewables, INR14b for operational capex, and the balance for other segments. GAIL plans

to add 85 new CNG stations and over 0.15m DPNG connections over the next two years. EBIT guidance for FY26

remains unchanged at INR40b-45b.

PLNG:

Management expects India’s LNG demand to double by CY30, with

PLNG projecting 6-7% growth in the country’s natural gas consumption. The FY26 capex plan of INR50b includes

investments in the 3rd Jetty, the petrochemical complex, the Gopalpur terminal (INR3b), the corporate office

(INR1b), and over 25 CBG plants (INR1b). Capex in FY27 is expected to be higher than in FY26.

Exhibit 110: Implied gross marketing margin (INR/lit)

Implied marketing margin (INR/lit)

IOCL

BPCL

HPCL

Exhibit 111: Reported refining margin (USD/bbl)

36.0

26.0

16.0

6.0

-4.0

2.0

USD/bbl

6.0

8.0

IOCL

21.2

9.5

4.0

5.5

HPCL

BPCL

SG GRM

3.8

7.1

6.2

8.2

5.0

3.2

5.7

7.3

3.5

3.6

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 112: Sales volume of CGDs (mmscmd)

Volumes mmscmd

11.4 12.1

9.8

10.0

11.4 11.4

9.9

9.8

7.6

4.1

5.5

2.7

1.1

2.1 2.8

2.9

6.3

6.8

7.2

3.1

7.3

8.1

3.4

8.3

3.4

8.2

3.4

8.3

3.6

8.5

3.7

8.7

3.8

8.6 9.0

3.9

9.1

9.2

8.9

9.2

9.3

9.2

9.7

GUJGA

IGL

MAHGL

11.0

8.8

9.5

9.3

9.5

7.7

3.3

7.7

7.9

3.4

8.1

3.5

5.3

2.4

3.2

4.0

4.1

4.2

Exhibit 113: EBITDA/scm trend for CGDs (INR)

EBITDA/scm

GUJGA

IGL

MAHGL

8.0

3.4

8.7

8.0

7.9

8.0

8.6

6.7

7.2

7.1

5.7

6.2

8.6

7.2

6.6

7.4 6.5

4.3

6.0

6.8

Plastic Pipes: Weak demand environment and volatile pricing hurt operating performance



Muted revenue growth across industry:

The plastic pipes sector reported a weak quarter, with aggregate revenue

(coverage companies) declining 2% YoY to INR45.5b. This decline was due to volatile pricing (blended realization

down 8% YoY) and soft demand (aggregate volume up only 4% YoY). Supreme delivered the highest pipe volume

growth of 6% YoY to 148.8K tonnes, followed by PRINCPIP (up 4%), while ASTRA’s volume remained flat YoY. In terms

of overall revenue, PRINCPIP declined the most (by 4% YoY), while ASTRA/SI declined by 2%/1% YoY. For our coverage

universe, we expect an aggregate revenue growth of ~11% in FY26 (implying 15% YoY growth in 9MFY26) and a CAGR

of 14% over FY25-FY28.

Margins affected the most due to adverse operating leverage and inventory losses:

The sector witnessed a higher

decline in the overall profitability, with aggregate EBITDA declining 18% YoY to INR5.4b. Sequentially, the sector

dipped 30%, primarily due to seasonality, as 1Q is generally an agri-heavy business (with low margin). PRINCPIP

reported the highest EBITDA decline of 32% YoY, followed by SI/ASTRA with 18%/14% decline YoY. Blended EBIT/kg

of the pipes segment declined 37% YoY to INR11. The sharpest decline was seen in PRINCPIP, which dropped 74%

YoY to INR2, followed by SI/ASTRA, which dipped 36%/30% to INR11/INR18. Inventory losses due to volatile pricing

and adverse operating leverage due to low volumes weighed on the operating performance. SI reported the highest

inventory loss this quarter of INR500-600m, followed by ASTRA/PRINCPIP of INR350m/INR150-200m. However,

every company has indicated this to be the last quarter of inventory losses, as PVC prices have now stabilized.

Consequently, the management teams of our coverage companies expect margins to gradually improve.

Outlook remains positive with an improving demand scenario and stabilizing PVC prices:

A common indication

from all the companies is the expectation of a gradual demand revival, supported by renewed government thrust on

infrastructure spending and improving residential real estate activity. While 1QFY26 was challenging due to

macroeconomic headwinds, subdued demand, and raw material price volatility, a pickup is expected from 2HFY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



PVC resin prices are expected to stabilize or have already bottomed out, which should improve channel sentiment

and reduce inventory losses, paving the way for better margins. Most companies reported a healthy pickup in

volumes in Jul’25, with similar momentum observed in Aug’25. This indicates a healthy end to FY26. Hence, all our

coverage companies have retained their FY26 guidance despite a weak performance in 1QFY26.

The quarter experienced downgrades for all companies:

We have downgraded our earnings estimates of FY26 for

ASTRA by 8% and SI/PRINCPIP by 7% each. While we maintained our FY27 earnings for ASTRA and SI, we

downgraded the same for PRINCPIP by 7%. We broadly maintained our estimates across our coverage for FY28.

Surprises:

None

Misses:

SI, ASTRA, and PRINCPIP

Guidance highlights:



ASTRA:

From Jul’25 onwards, volumes have started improving (up 30% YoY), and the company expects “lower

double-digit” volume growth for FY26, with potential upside if ADD/BIS spur channel restocking. Piping business

EBITDA margins are guided at 16–18%. ASTRA is acquiring 80% of Nexelon Chem to set up a 40,000MT CPVC

resin plant (commissioning in 2QFY27) using an in-house developed technology for INR1.5b. This will be the

lowest-cost capacity in the industry, fully for captive use, and is likely to boost margins (for CPVC pipes), improve

working capital, and drive market share as CPVC demand improves.

guided a strong recovery in demand from 2QFY26 onwards, with channel restocking as inventory levels are

below normal levels; normalization is expected by Sep’25. The company expects FY26 total volume growth of

14-15%, with plastic piping systems growing at a higher 15-17%. The EBITDA margin is projected to be 14.5-

15.5%, and effective capacity utilization is likely to be 65-70% by year-end. SI remains optimistic about the

industry growth of ~9-10%

PRINCPIP

guided a recovery in demand from 2QFY26, fueled by healthy volumes in Jul’25. Its margin is likely to

improve sequentially to 12% by 4Q. The bathware segment is expected to generate INR500-600m revenue, with

break-even anticipated by mid-FY27. PRINCPIP incurred a capex of INR750m in 1Q and is likely to incur ~INR1.6-

1.7b in 9MFY27. This will include capacity addition in Begusarai (Bihar), Bathware (Aquel), and maintenance.

Revenue (INR m)

YoY

QoQ

FY25

(%)

FY25

(%)

13,836 -2 16,814 -19

26,364 -1 30,271 -14

6,045

-4

7,197 -19

11,405 -9 11,718 -11

3,085 -11 3,148 -13

46,244

-2

54,281

-16

-3

69,147

-15

EBIT/kg (INR)

YoY

FY25

(%)

FY25

25.1

-30

29.5

16.5

-36

13.3

7.7

-74

5.5

14.8

-51

10.5

7.2

-53

4.5

17.0

-37

15.8

15.7

-41

13.8

Adj PAT (INR m)

YoY

FY25

(%)

FY25

1,204 -33 1,793

2,734 -26 2,939

247

-80

242

1,776 -45 1,646

125

-35

4,184 -31 4,974

6,085

-35

6,718

Exhibit 114: Key operating indicators

FY26

13,612

26,092

5,804

10,432

2,750

45,508

FY26

17.6

10.6

2.0

7.3

3.4

10.7

9.3

QoQ

(%)

-40

-21

-63

-31

-25

-33

-32

FY26

811

2,023

982

2,882

3,945

QoQ

(%)

-55

-31

-80

-40

-17

-42

-41

ASTRA

PRINCPIP

FNXP

APOLP

Aggregate

Aggregate (inc

58,690 60,734

Finolex and Apollo)

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 115:

Our revised EPS estimates (INR)

Rev

FY26E

Old

Chg (%)

-8

-7

Rev

120

FY27E

Old

121

Chg (%)

-1

-2

-7

Rev

144

FY28E

Old

142

Chg (%)

-2

-4

ASTRA

PRINCPIP

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 1: Agg. Volume trend (coverage companies)

Volume ('000 MT)

37%

24%

31%

Growth YoY (%)

337%

-9%

-36%

-28% -35% -23% -37%

Exhibit 2: Agg. EBIT/KG trend (INR/KG)

EBIT/KG

Growth YoY (%)

12%

18%

202

197

217

277

238

200

217

280

249

Source: Company, MOFSL

REAL ESTATE: 1QFY26 presales up 41% YoY, driven by key launches and premium-luxury demand



Presales grow 41% YoY:

In 1QFY26, our coverage universe reported bookings of INR443b, up 41% YoY, aided by

seasonality and an exceptional performance by PEPL, DLFU, GPL and LODHA, even when sales from other listed

players were considerably lower. These key players contributed ~79% of total reported bookings of our coverage

universe, while PEPL and DLF jointly contributed to ~53%, mainly driven by big launches like Prestige

Indirapuram and DLF Privana North. The total booking area of listed players in our coverage universe was also up

by ~21% YoY at 29.8msf. Overall demand for Premium and Luxury remained strong, and sales were higher in the

Premium and Luxury segments with higher ticket sizes during the quarter.

PEPL and DLF were the best performers in terms of YoY growth in presales, posting 300% and 78%, respectively.

DLF also posted 462% QoQ growth. PEPL performed the best in terms of value, i.e., INR121b out of total

reported bookings of INR443b from our coverage universe.

Realization also improved 16% YoY due to higher sales from the Luxury and Premium segments.

Double-digit growth aspiration intact for FY26:

Our coverage universe posted a 40% CAGR in cumulative

bookings over FY21-25 and they aspire for 20-30% growth in FY26 as the delay/absence of key launches in FY25

will be spilled over into FY26. In 1QFY26, business development remained strong, led by LODHA and GPL, which

added new projects worth GDV of INR227b and INR114b, respectively. Consequently, companies have a vast

launch pipeline for FY26, which can support their future growth aspirations.

Launches dominated by few players:

Launches in 1Q grew 59% YoY, mainly led by large launches by PEPL, which

spilled over into 1Q due to a delay in approvals occurred in FY25. Overall, launches grew by 62%/117%/703%/

204% YoY for DLFU/LODHA/PEPL/MAHLIFE in 1QFY26, while other listed players in our coverage universe

reported a declining trend. GPL saw a 24% decline, while Sobha reported a 49% decline in launches. KPDL did not

see any launches in the quarter. However, the missed launches are expected to be planned for the rest of FY26.

Collections:

Total collections for 1QFY26 increased 16% YoY to INR209b, while there was a reduction in

collection efficiency (collections-to-sales) to 47% from 55% in 1QFY25 and 76% in 4QFY25.

P&L performance – mixed bag:

Aggregate revenue for our coverage universe grew 18% YoY to INR148b (10%

below our estimate). The individual performance was a mixed bag as DLF/LODHA/PEPL/Sobha/ARCP/SIGNATUR

reported healthy revenue growth, while other coverage companies were affected by lower project deliveries.

Cumulative EBITDA stood at INR36b, up 3% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 24% (4% below 4QFY24).

View:

The operational performance of our coverage universe was below our expectations due to the impact of

delayed launches in pre-sales. We retain our FY26 pre-sales estimates (except for the upward revision of OBER)

for all the companies. However, we will critically monitor launches and deliveries as many companies have

expressed concerns regarding approval delays. We prefer PEPL, LODHA, and SIGNATUR as our top picks.

Surprises:

DLF, PEPL

Misses:

KPDL



Company commentary:



LODHA:

LODHA aims to grow its weekly sales from INR2.8b in Jul’25 to INR4b by FY26 end and deliver quarterly

average presales of INR50b in FY26. Upcoming launches worth INR170b in 2HFY26 will include ~INR35b in Pune

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



and a 70-acre premium project in Bangalore, along with a pilot entry into Delhi NCR in FY27. LODHA aims to

grow Bangalore’s sales contribution to 15% over the next decade. Palava Township is projected to deliver

INR80b in annual sales over the next decade, aided by major infrastructure projects, while digital infrastructure

and rental income growth will help LODHA turn net debt-free.

OBER:

In 1QFY26, OBER plans to launch one tower in Borivali, two towers in Forestville (Thane), Peddar Road,

and Gurugram during FY26, with potential launches in Adarsh Nagar, Worli, and Tardeo. Leasing traction is

strong across its three office assets and the newly launched Sky City Mall, with Commerz I and Commerz II fully

leased and Commerz III and Sky City Mall expected to be fully leased by FY26 end. The Gurugram project has

commenced as demolition is completed, design is finalized, and all licenses are in place, while a private equity

transaction in I-Ven Realty brought in INR12.5b of investment.

DLF:

DLF expects FY26 presales of INR200-220b (~50% achieved in 1QFY26), driven by launches like Privana

North, the Mumbai project (~0.9msf), and the upcoming Goa launch. Major FY27 launches include Mumbai

Phase 2 (1.2msf), Dahlias, and DLF City. It has planned medium-term projects valued at INR629b and capex of

INR50b each in FY26 and FY27. In the commercial vertical, office/retail vacancies stand at 13%/2%, with major

leasing momentum in Downtown Gurugram (Block-4, 97% pre-leased, rentals from 2QFY26), Chennai

Downtown-3 (99% pre-leased), and Atrium Place Phase-1 (rentals from 2QFY26). Key retail assets (Highstreet

Plaza Mall, DLF 5 Mall, and Promenade Goa) are set to begin rentals between 3Q and 4QFY26.

GPL:

Launch-ready inventory from the land acquired since FY23 stands at INR550-600b, with the total remaining

inventory of INR1.14t and pending collections of INR510b. In 1QFY26, launches worth INR85b GDV—led by

Godrej MSR City (INR24b) and other key projects—drove ~64% of sales. GPL maintains its annual guidance of

INR400b GDV launches and INR325b presales. Upcoming launches will be in Gurgaon, Greater Noida, Mumbai,

Panvel, Hyderabad, Pune, and Bengaluru, supported by five new projects (9.24msf, INR 114b GDV) added in 1Q.

PEPL:

In 1QFY26, PEPL launched ~15msf with GDV of INR136b, led by major NCR, Bengaluru, and Chennai

projects, achieving 45% of its FY26 presales guidance of INR270b. The remaining GDV pipeline for FY26 stands at

INR299b (29.16msf), with key launches in 2Q-3Q across plotted developments in Bengaluru, MMR, and NCR,

alongside Hyderabad projects, Prestige Imperial Park and Prestige Rock Cliff. Business development remained

strong with seven JDA acquisitions (102 acres, INR204b GDV), while unrecognized revenue stood at INR571b and

EBITDA margins at 30-35%. Net debt was INR68b (0.42x) and the borrowing cost declined to 10.14%. Annual

collections are expected to scale up to INR160-180b.

BRGD:

In 1QFY25, BRGD launched Brigade Morgan Heights (1.1msf) in Chennai, El Dorado (0.1msf) in Bangalore,

and International Finance Center (0.5msf) in Gujarat. BRGD listed its hospitality arm under Brigade Hotel

Ventures Limited (Brigade owns 74.09% share) and plans to expand it by 1,700 keys. The company has made

good progress in the commercial portfolio’s occupancy, which was flat QoQ at ~92% in 1QFY26.

MLIFE:

MLDL is consolidating operations by exiting NCR to focus on MMR, Pune, and Bengaluru while scaling up

execution through outright buys, JDAs, and redevelopment. In 1QFY26, it launched New Haven (Bangalore) and

Citadel (Pune) with a GDV of INR4.5b, followed by Marina64 (MMR) in 2QFY26, and plans major launches,

including Saibaba redevelopment (INR18b) and Bhandup Phase 1. In 1QFY26, three projects worth INR35b were

added, taking acquisitions to INR410b of its INR450b GDV plan, with the balance INR40b targeted in Pune and

Bangalore. The 6.4msf Bhandup project, expected to generate INR120b over 8-9 years, will debut in FY26,

positioning MLDL to achieve INR95b sales over the next five years.

SOBHA:

In 1QFY26, Sobha launched Sobha Aurum in Greater Noida (0.7msf, INR8.3b sold, 80% booked) and the

remaining four towers of Marina One in Kochi (0.9msf). It plans ~6-8msf (~INR100b GDV) of launches in FY26,

with 45% in NCR, including 0.6msf and 0.5msf launches in Bengaluru and a commercial project in Gurgaon in

2QFY26, and an MMR project (0.15msf) in 3QFY26. Delayed OCs in five Bangalore projects deferred INR6.5b in

revenue, impacting EBITDA margin by 9%, but management targets a 33% project-level margin from the

INR172b revenue pipeline. Sobha’s upcoming pipeline stands at 17.67msf residential and 0.71msf commercial,

alongside 11.6msf completed inventory valued at INR145b.

SIGNATUR:

In 1Q, the company launched Cloverdale in Sector-71 (2nd phase of Titanium) with 2msf area and

GDV of INR40b, achieving 65% presales. FY26 launch pipeline exceeds 10msf (GDV INR170b), with major

launches in 2Q-4Q. Management targets FY26 presales of INR125b and revenue of INR48b (up 92% YoY) with

35% operating margin. Net debt is INR8.9b, with annual land spending guidance of INR12-15b for Gurugram.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



KPDL:

KPDL delivered a muted 1QFY26 performance with no new launches due to approval delays but expects

momentum to pick up from 2QFY26, aided by a 6–7msf launch pipeline (GDV INR50–52b) across Pune and

Mumbai. Life Republic contributed 57% of 1QFY26 pre-sales, with unsold inventory at 3.5msf. Completions are

set to accelerate from 2QFY26, driving stable revenues, while key Mumbai projects remain in approval stages.

SRIN:

SRIN targets 25-30% presales growth in FY26, driven by a robust launch pipeline of INR110b GDV in key

Mumbai MMR micro-markets, with most projects in the uber- and premium-luxury segments. Collections and

revenue are expected to improve as projects like Sunteck City-4th Avenue move into recognition. SRIN has also

secured an Andheri redevelopment project (GDV INR11b), taking its FY26 cumulative GDV target to INR500b. Its

landmark Burj Khalifa Community, Dubai (1msf, GDV INR90b), is set for launch in 4QFY26 or early FY27.

PHNX:

PHNX will acquire CPP Investments’ remaining 49% stake in Island Star Mall Developers (ISMDPL) for

~INR54.5b, raising its ownership to 100%, with payments staggered over FY26-29 to preserve liquidity. ISMDPL’s

4.4msf retail portfolio generating INR6.2b in EBITDA will expand to 5.2msf retail, 4msf office, and 1,000 hotel

keys by FY27. Expansion includes PMC Bangalore, new hotels, and upcoming malls in Thane, Coimbatore,

Chandigarh-Mohali, Surat, and others, targeting at least 1msf launches annually after 2027. Core portfolio saw

steady 1Q results with 4% YoY revenue and 2% EBITDA growth. Mall revamps will boost growth in FY27.

ARCP:

In 1QFY26, ARCP launched “The Estate Apartments,” a new version of independent floors at Anant Raj

Estate, Sector 63A, Gurugram, which received strong demand. Upcoming launches include the Group Housing-2

project at Anant Raj Estate (1.09 msf) and a community center with a commercial tower (0.16 msf) at Ashok

Estate, Sector 63A. In its data center business, ARCP plans to operationalize 49 MW of co-location capacity by

FY26 from internal accruals, while phasing 14 MW of cloud capacity commissioning through 1HFY27, with 3 MW

becoming operational by Aug’25 and the balance to be added gradually to match demand.

Exhibit 116: Presales for our coverage universe rose 41%

YoY…

Pre-sales (INR b)

Growth YoY %

Exhibit 117: …while volumes increased 21% YoY

Sales volumes (msf)

Growth YoY %

Exhibit 118: Collections improved 16% YoY

Collections (INRb)

64%

Growth YoY %

Exhibit 119: Bookings grew 19% YoY

Bookings (INRb)

44%

FY24

31%

22%

-1%

16%

20%

54%

-19%

FY25

42%

-6%

32%

31%

34%

18%21%

0% 0%

27%

40%

33%

13%

33%

22%

28%

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 120: Summary of our revised estimates for our coverage universe

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Phoenix Mills

Anant Raj

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY26E

181

114

Old

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Phoenix Mills

Anant Raj

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY26E

-1

Old

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Phoenix Mills

Anant Raj

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY26E

FY27E

FY26E

FY27E

FY26E

-1

Old

FY27E

189

141

FY26E

181

114

Revenue

New

FY27E

189

141

EBITDA

New

FY27E

PAT

New

FY27E

Change

FY26E

-5%

-6%

Change

FY26E

-16%

Change

FY26E

13%

14%

-16%

FY27E

-30%

FY27E

-32%

FY27E

-12%

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Pre-sales

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

INR b

DLF

Godrej Properties

Macrotech

Oberoi Realty

Prestige Estates

Brigade

Sobha

Mahindra Lifespaces

Sunteck

Kolte Patil

Signature Global

FY26E

233

321

213

262

105

101

123

Old

FY26E

170

263

144

165

FY27E

199

284

172

220

113

103

Old

FY27E

257

341

253

112

315

115

124

178

New

FY26E

FY27E

233

257

321

341

213

253

116

262

315

105

115

101

124

123

178

Collections

New

FY26E

FY27E

170

199

263

284

144

172

165

220

113

103

FY26E

Change

FY26E

FY27E

Change

FY27E

RETAIL: Demand environment stays subdued, all eyes on festive-led recovery in coming quarters







Apparel and grocery retail: Demand remains soft; profitability improvement driven by robust cost controls

Demand remained muted in 1QFY26, affected by continued weak consumer sentiment, the early onset of monsoon

and a shift in festive dates to 4QFY25, though partly offset by higher wedding-led demand. With an early festive

season, retailers remain cautiously optimistic about a rebound in demand in the coming quarters while focusing on

operational efficiency and channel optimization to protect margins amid weak demand and intense competition.

In 1QFY26, aggregate revenue for nine apparel stocks under our coverage grew

15% YoY

INR155b

(vs. 13% in

4QFY25, in line). Vishal Mega Mart (VMM, +21% YoY) and Trent (+20% YoY, though significant moderation over

past few quarters) were the relative outperformers, while ethnic wear retailers such as ABFRL, Vedant and

Raymond (RLL) saw a rebound in growth, albeit on a low base. Including DMart, aggregate revenue rose

15.5%

YoY

(vs. ~15% in 4Q). SSSG moderated industry-wide due to a shift in festive dates, though VMM and wedding-

focused retailers posted strong SSSG, while premium retailers (ABLBL/SHOP) saw modest improvement in LTL

growth, led by recent store rationalizations.

Profitability trends were mixed, with aggregate gross profit (ex-D-Mart) rising 13% YoY to INR68b (vs. 15% YoY in

4Q), with

margins contracting 80bp YoY

(30bp miss). Trent (-110bp) and Vedant (-140bp) were the key drags on

aggregate gross margins, while ABFRL (+410bp), ABLBL (+375bp) and Go Fashions (+120bp) recorded improvement,

driven by lower discounting and optimization of channel mix.

Aggregate EBITDA

(excl. D-Mart) grew 23% YoY (vs. 19% YoY in 4Q) to INR22b (7% beat) as margins expanded ~90bp

YoY (80bp beat), led by improved profitability for Trent (+220bp), V-Mart (+165bp) and SHOP (145bp).

Aggregate PAT

stood at INR 5.1b (in line), up 53% YoY, led by heavy weights Trent (up 24%) and VMM (up 37%).

D-Mart delivered steady 16% YoY revenue growth, but profitability continued to be hit by 25bp gross margin

compression and higher cost of retailing, resulting in modest 8% YoY EBITDA growth and modest 2% YoY PAT

growth.

Footwear: Broad-based weakness as demand remained lackluster amid intense competition in mass market

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Aggregate revenue for the footwear stocks under our coverage declined ~2% YoY (vs. +2% YoY in 4QFY25) to INR26b,

due to subdued demand and higher competition in mass market footwear. All four companies posted weaker results

(7% revenue miss), with Relaxo posting 12% YoY revenue decline (fourth consecutive quarter of 5%+ decline). Aggregate

gross profit fell ~2% YoY (~7% miss, vs. -1% YoY in 4QFY25), as gross margin contracted ~50bp YoY (~35bp miss). Campus

was the outlier with +165bp gross margin expansion, led by lower impact from non-BIS inventory liquidation and lower

online sales. However, aggregate EBITDA rose ~5% YoY (vs. ~6% YoY in 4QFY25, 4% miss) as EBITDA margin expanded

~130bp (70bp beat), aided by cost controls (Relaxo) and accounting change (Bata), which offset higher A&P spends

(Metro) and operating deleverage (Campus). Aggregate PAT dipped 8% YoY (vs. -5% YoY in 4QFY25) to INR2.3b (~13%

miss).



Retailers increase focus on boosting store productivity over store additions

In 1QFY26, aggregate revenue for the 14 retail stocks under coverage

grew 14% YoY (in line)

to INR340b (similar to

14% YoY in 4QFY25), driven by a combination of net store additions (+5% YoY) and improved store productivity (+9%

YoY). Excluding RRVL, net additions moderated to 58 stores (vs. 231 QoQ, mainly due to a moderation in Trent’s

store additions), taking the total footprint to 14,218 stores (+5% YoY). Retailers continue to prioritize profitability

and improvement in like-for-like growth and have been rationalizing unprofitable stores, with Trent, ABLBL, ABFRL,

and Shoppers Stop actively closing unviable stores, while Vedant Fashions and Metro Brands calibrating their

expansion plans.

Aggregate gross profit grew

~11% YoY (vs. ~12% YoY in 4QFY25), as gross margin contracted ~90bp

YoY (vs. ~40bp YoY in 4QFY25).

Aggregate EBITDA grew ~15% YoY

(vs. ~12% YoY in 4QFY25), supported by tight cost

control and operational efficiency, with margins largely stable YoY.

Aggregate PAT

rose 13% YoY (vs. 15% YoY in

4QFY25), driven largely by improved profitability for heavyweights such as Trent and VMM, though impacted by

modest growth for DMart and decline for footwear retailers.

Broad-based earnings downgrades continued:

Amid a muted demand backdrop, we have cut FY26-27E EBITDA by ~3%

and earnings by ~4-5% since 4Q results. Our EBITDA cut was broad-based, with material downgrades for Go Fashion,

Campus and RLL on account of muted demand and/or margin pressures. V-Mart and SHOP were the outliers with

marginal upgrades.

Top picks:

VMM, DMart, V-Mart, TRENT



Surprises:

VMM, V-Mart, Trent



Misses:

Go Fashion, Campus, Relaxo, Bata

Guidance highlights:



VMM:

Management remains optimistic about the demand revival, driven by higher disposable income following

the interest rate cuts. Further, the endeavor is to keep gross margin broadly stable, with any surplus likely to be

reinvested in the business to boost growth. However, EBITDA margin is likely to expand slightly (~10-30bp),

primarily driven by operating leverage.



Metro Brands:

Management reiterated its long-term guidance of 15-18% CAGR, driven by mid-to-high single

digit SSSG, new store openings, and rising contribution from new banners. Further, driven by its robust cost

controls and superior store economics, the company aims to deliver 30%+ EBITDA margin and mid-teen profit

margin.



ABLBL:

The company reaffirmed its target of adding 250+ net stores in FY26 across all brands. Expansion will be

portfolio-wide, including Lifestyle, Reebok, and youth brands, with strong opportunities in tier-2 and tier-3

towns.



Vedant Fashion:

VFL continues to face weak consumer sentiment in the mid-premium segment, though regions

such as AP and Telangana have rebounded in 1Q. While early trends for FY26 are positive, management remains

cautious, expecting clearer visibility over the next 1-2 quarters.



ABFRL:

The company’s expansion plans would largely focus on scaling up Style Up, Tasva and TMRW in the near

term while focusing on achieving EBITDA break-even in most categories (except TMRW) by FY27.



Campus Activewear:

Despite a soft start to FY26, management remains confident of delivering double-digit

revenue growth and a gradual improvement in margins to the 17-19% range.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Raymond Lifestyle:

Management expects FY26 to be a much stronger year vs. FY25. Momentum in AW26

bookings was solid. With internal levers such as better product mix, shelf space gains, and brand refreshes, the

company anticipates margin and volume-led growth in FY26.

VMART:

Management reiterated its target of 12-15% net store area additions (~65 stores) and mid-to-high

single-digit SSSG in FY26. Emphasis remains on increasing fashion content, maintaining tight inventory control,

and adopting selective marketing to improve overall profitability.

Shoppers Stop:

In FY26, SHOP plans to add 7-8 departmental stores (pivoting to 35-40k sqft. stores), 30-40

INTUNE stores (vs. 40-60 earlier), and 2-3 beauty stores despite ongoing rationalization.

Go Fashion:

Management targets mid-single-digit SSSG, supported by sharper pricing (INR1,000-1,200) and 6-7

new bottom-wear launches.

Exhibit 122: VMM and Trent lead with 20%+ growth, while

growth rebounds for ethnic wear retailers on a low base

16%

-13%

20%

13%

Exhibit 121: Aggregate revenue for retailers under our

coverage grew 14% YoY (similar growth as in 4QFY25)

Aggregate Revenue (INR b)

16.8

YoY growth (%)

15.0

13.6

14.0

21%

18.5

17%17%

16.2

14.3

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 123: Aggregate gross profit grew 11% YoY (vs. 12%

YoY in 4Q), margins contracted by ~90bp YoY (vs. 40bp in

4Q)

Aggregate Gross Profit (INR b)

33.0

32.1

32.2

31.6

32.3

31.7

31.3

GM (%)

Exhibit 124: Gross margin contraction driven by weaker GM

for Trent, Manyavar, Bata and DMart

Source: Company, MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 125: Aggregate EBITDA grew ~15% YoY (vs. 12% YoY

in 4Q), margins remained broadly stable YoY

Aggregate EBITDA (INR b)

13.7

11.5

11.9

11.3

EBITDAM (%)

13.4

Exhibit 126: Aggregate PAT rose ~12% YoY (vs. ~15% YoY in

4QFY25) due to muted performance by DMart and footwear

Aggregate PAT (INR b)

25.1%

17.2%

7.0%

10.1%

6.9%

15.2%

YoY growth (%)

11.4

12.6%

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 127: Store additions moderated on rationalization of unprofitable stores by apparel retailers

Total Stores

ABFRL + ABLBL

Bata

Raymond

TRENT

Metro

Go Fashion

VMM

Vedant Fashions

VMART

DMART

Relaxo

SHOP

Campus

Total

3QFY24

4,753

1,835

1,512

715

840

704

589

673

454

341

399

290

250

4QFY24

4,664

1,862

1,518

811

839

714

611

676

444

365

405

306

268

1QFY25

4,607

1,916

1,539

823

854

734

626

662

448

371

399

320

275

2QFY25

4,538

1,955

1,592

831

873

755

645

650

467

377

403

341

288

3QFY25

4,492

1,953

1,653

907

895

775

668

666

488

387

410

345

290

4QFY25

4,420

1,962

1,688

1,043

908

776

696

678

497

415

418

363

296

1QFY26

4,398

1,978

1,675

1,043

928

803

717

684

510

424

406

362

290

YoY

-5%

27%

15%

14%

13%

QoQ

-1%

-3%

-2%

13,355

13,483

13,574

13,715

13,929

14,160

14,218

Note: Excluding Reliance Retail stores

Source: Company, MOFSL

RETAIL - JEWELRY: Strong revenue growth with robust margins



Jewelry companies continued to deliver robust sales growth despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, tariff wars,

and a significant rise in gold price—up 32% YoY and 5% QoQ. Consumer demand remained strong, fueled by

favorable festivities and weddings. Titan (Jewelry standalone, ex-bullion), Kalyan, Senco, and P N Gadgil (retail)

delivered revenue growth of 17%, 31%, 30%, and 19%, respectively. The SSSG of Titan, Kalyan, and Senco stood

at 12%, 18%, and 20%, respectively. The studded mix improved for Senco, remained steady for Kalyan, and

declined marginally for Titan.

Our top picks are Titan and PN Gadgil.

Outperformers (1Q):

Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, Senco Gold, P N Gadgil

Underperformer (1Q):



Guidance highlights:



TTAN:

The company expects an EBIT margin of 11-11.5% for FY26, with a stronger focus on absolute growth. For

FY26, the company has guided for mid-teen EBIT margins for the watches segment.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



Kalyan Jewellers:

In FY26, the company plans to launch 170 showrooms across the Kalyan and Candere formats

- 90 Kalyan showrooms and 80 Candere showrooms in India.

Senco:

For FY26, the company maintains its revenue growth guidance of 18-20%. Additionally, it expects to

record an EBITDA margin of 6.8-7.2% and an APAT margin of 3.7-4%. Looking ahead, the company plans to open

8-10 COCO stores and 8-10 franchise outlets annually, with a keen focus on opening franchisee outlets.

P N Gadgil:

For FY26, the company aims to open 20-25 new stores across multiple formats, including 7-8 COCO

(company-owned, company-operated), 7-8 FOCO (franchise-owned, company-operated), and 10-11 PNG

LiteStyle stores (split evenly between COCO and FOCO). The company plans to bring the total store count to 64

by 2QFY26 and 80 by FY26.

TECHNOLOGY: Between tech cycles; awaiting clear skies



Aggregate performance:

IT service companies (within the MOFSL Universe) faced a challenging 1QFY26, with

median revenue growing just 0.8% QoQ CC (-0.6%/+1.7%/+2.0%/+1.2% in 4Q/3Q/2Q/1QFY25), as GenAI-led

productivity gains, weak macros, and client caution weighed on performance. INFO maintained a cautiously

optimistic stance, with the upper end of its 3% YoY organic CC growth guidance hinging on a gradually improving

environment. Meanwhile, HCLT remained the most constructive, guiding for 3-5% YoY CC growth. BFSI

commentary remained relatively steady, while verticals like Manufacturing, Retail, and Healthcare faced

pressure from macro/tariff headwinds. GenAI is beginning to disrupt pricing discussions and revenue realization

across tier-1 firms, with INFO, WPRO, LTIM, and HCLT all acknowledging the commercial implications of rising

productivity. Midcaps, which had held up well so far, are now feeling the pinch. Hexaware’s growth has slowed,

while Persistent’s sequential momentum is fading. Deal pipelines remain healthy, but conversion is a key

watchpoint due to ongoing deferral risks. Margins weakened broadly due to revenue pressure, wage hikes, and

lack of offsetting levers—tier-1 players saw a median EBIT margin contraction of ~20bp YoY, while tier-2 players

witnessed a ~90bp contraction. Valuations are no longer the issue, but questions are being asked of the

structural demand outlook. A major re-rating for the sector hinges on the emergence of a new tech cycle and

meaningful earnings upgrades. We continue to prioritize a bottom-up play in IT: HCLT and TECHM in large caps

and COFORGE in mid-tier.

Tier-2 pack outpaces tier-1:

Tier-1 players posted a median revenue dip of 1.1% QoQ CC, while tier-2 companies

recorded a robust growth of 1.3% QoQ CC, driven by strong performance by COFORGE (8.0% CC QoQ growth)

and Persistent (3.3% QoQ CC). TCS (-3.3% QoQ CC), TECHM (-1.4% QoQ CC), and WPRO (-2.0% QoQ CC) reported

weak growth. Meanwhile, midcaps like COFORGE (+8.0% QoQ CC) and Persistent (+3.3% QoQ CC) outperformed

their peers with strong executions in 1Q. On the margin front, tier-1 companies reported a margin contraction of

~20bp YoY, while tier-2 companies saw a sharper fall of 90bp this quarter. The margin contraction for tier-1

companies was primarily driven by subdued revenue growth, wage hikes (INFO), lower utilization, and

investments in capabilities (TCS). For tier-2 companies, the contraction was mainly due to pricing and volume

softness, one-off costs (HEXT), and the absence of meaningful margin levers (PSYS). Margins saw a meaningful

YoY contraction across our coverage universe, as GenAI-led productivity gains impacted near-term revenue and

pricing more than initially anticipated.

Steady TCV performance:

A majority of tier-1 companies reported steady TCV performance, except for

INFO/WPRO (up 46.0%/26.0% QoQ). Tier-2 companies also reported robust growth in TCV, with MPHL’s TCV was

up 95% QoQ/138% YoY to USD760m. COFORGE recorded an order intake of USD507m in 1Q, including five large

deals. The 12-month executable order book rose 46.9% YoY to USD1.55b. The 1Q book-to-bill was decent at

~1.2x for tier-1 firms and ~1.0x for tier-2 players.

Headcount movement:

Hiring activity was muted in 1Q, with net headcount additions of ~4.2k in tier-1 firms,

while tier-2 companies saw only ~1k additions. Attrition rates inched up 70bp in 1Q, and utilization remained

stable QoQ, hovering near peak levels. For PSYS, utilization stood at 89% (up 30bp QoQ), and we believe this

margin lever is now maxed out.

Top picks:

We prefer TECHM and HCLT among large caps, and COFORGE in the mid-cap space. Our positive

outlook on TECHM is driven by early signs of transformation under new leadership and improved execution in

BFSI. Margin expectations are now more reasonable, and niche offerings are resonating well. We believe

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

TECHM’s transformation remains relatively decoupled from discretionary spending. We continue to favor HCLT

for its all-weather portfolio. Often perceived as defensive, its strengths in data, product engineering, and

modernization should enable it to benefit from a recovering demand environment. We believe COFORGE’s

strong executable order book and a rebound in BFS client spending bode well for its organic business. Cigniti

could prove to be an effective long-term asset.



Significant beat:

HCLT/INFO (revenue growth), TECHM (margin), COFORGE (revenue growth).



Significant miss:

TCS (revenue growth), PSYS (revenue growth and margin), LTIM/HEXT (revenue growth).



Significant surprise:

WPRO (large deal TCV up 51% QoQ/131% YoY), HCLT (EBIT margin guidance was lowered to

17%-18% for FY26 from 18%-19% earlier).



Major EPS upgrades/downgrades:

HCLT’s FY26E/FY27E EPS estimates were lowered by 6.0%/4.0% following a

recalibration of margin guidance. LTTS saw cuts of 4.0%/2.2%, while CYL’s DET business estimates were reduced

by 4.0%/5.0% for FY26/FY27. In contrast, WPRO’s EPS estimates for FY26/FY27 were raised by 2% each.

Guidance highlights



TCS:

Demand recovery hinges on the easing of decision-making delays and greater macroeconomic clarity,

especially regarding the new US presidential bill. Strong client interest in AI, data modernization, and cost

optimization continues to shape deal wins across geographies. AI-led productivity gains are being embedded in

pricing, and the margin trajectory is supported by lower third-party costs and operating leverage. The BFSI and

Healthcare verticals remain cautious, particularly in the US and Europe, due to regulatory and pricing

headwinds. Communication and Media clients continue to reprioritize spending, which has led to delays in AI

and transformation rollouts. The BSNL deal ramp-up may temporarily pressure margins, and recovery in the

Indian business depends on the pace of execution.



INFO:

INFO remains well-positioned to benefit from AI-led transformation and large-scale vendor consolidation

deals, particularly in the BFSI, Manufacturing, and European markets. Consolidation-led wins are ramping up

across North America and Europe, while scaling efforts in GCCs and Agentic AI use cases are accelerating. Margin

performance is under pressure due to wage hikes and investments in growth, but structural levers such as

pricing, productivity, and Project Maximus continue to provide a cushion. Discretionary tech spending in the

Consumer, Retail, and Auto sectors remains subdued due to macroeconomic softness, tariffs, and supply chain

disruptions. High utilization may require fresh hiring to support volume growth, which could affect the short-

term margin trajectory.



WPRO:

Revenue performance for 2Q is guided in the range of -1% to +1% QoQ CC, as deal transitions continue.

The second half is expected to be stronger, with better revenue conversion. A strong TCV of USD4.9b (+51% YoY)

and 16 large deals—many driven by vendor consolidation—enhance visibility for 2HFY26. BFSI remains a key

anchor vertical with two mega deal wins, while Healthcare and Telecom continue to show stable demand.

Softness in Manufacturing and a continued pause in a large SAP program within the Consumer vertical are likely

to weigh on segment growth. One-off restructuring costs in Europe may have lingering effects on local

profitability and workforce restructuring.



HCLT:

The demand environment remains stable with vertical-specific variations, and optimism is maintained

regarding deal closures that slipped from 1Q to 2Q. BFSI remains resilient, supported by vendor consolidation-

led visibility, while Digital and Application Modernization pipelines remain strong. A gradual ramp-up of large

deals is expected to strengthen in the second half, with ER&D and GenAI offerings positioned as long-term

growth levers. Margin recovery is anticipated after 2Q, as restructuring efforts and GenAI/GTM investments are

expected to normalize by FY27. EBIT margin guidance was reduced to 17-18% (from 18-19%) due to lower

utilization and restructuring efforts. One-time restructuring costs have been factored into the guidance.



TECHM:

Revenue contribution from large deals signed in 1Q and 2Q is expected to pick up as transitions are

completed and conditions stabilize. Margin tailwinds are anticipated from operational leverage, Project Fortius,

and the centralization of support functions. FY26 is expected to be stronger than FY25, with solid traction in

BFSI, Retail, and Telecom. The Telecom pipeline in Europe shows promise, driven by consolidation. Utilization

remains suboptimal due to training and ramp-readiness, while higher visa costs and some subcontracting

pressures may persist. The Hi-Tech vertical remains under pressure due to ongoing restructuring at key

semiconductor clients, with a gradual recovery expected only in the second half of FY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



LTIM:

Strong order inflow momentum has been sustained for the third consecutive quarter (USD1.6b+ TCV),

supported by sales transformation initiatives and GCC-as-a-Service traction. Strategic wins in Agribusiness and

the ramp-up of Manufacturing deals provide medium-term visibility, with margins expected to improve as these

stabilize. BFSI spending remains cautious, particularly in select large accounts, which is affecting overall deal

flow. The Healthcare and Public Services verticals face volume softness and cyclical margin headwinds, while the

closure of a large public sector project may impact short-term revenue. Visa and travel-related cost headwinds

affected margins in 1Q and may continue into 2Q.

Exhibit 129: Tier-2 companies continued to post mid-teen

growth

Tier II Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)

14.6% 14.6% 15.3%

Exhibit 128: For tier-1 companies, growth was impacted by

tariff uncertainty

Tier I Revenue Growth (USD, YoY %)

6.8%

4.4%

2.5%

0.8% 0.4%

1.9%

4.3%

3.3%

1.6% 1.7%

10.4%

13.0%

7.9% 6.6%

6.4% 7.4% 6.9%

Exhibit 130: Margins saw a meaningful contraction across our coverage universe on a YoY basis, as GenAI-led productivity

gains impacted near-term revenue and pricing more than initially anticipated

19.9

20.1

Tier I EBIT Margin (%)

20.1

19.9

Tier II EBIT Margin (%)

20.4

20.1

20.0

19.2

14.8

19.8

13.8

14.0

14.7

13.8

13.7

13.9

14.1

13.2

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 131: Median utilization (%) declined 30bp QoQ

IT Sector - Median Utilization (incl. trainees %)

83.9%

81.8% 81.9%

81.6%

82.4%

84.3%

83.4%

84.6% 84.3%

Exhibit 132: Median attrition (%) inched up 70bp in 1Q

IT Sector - Mediam Attrition (%)

17.3%

14.6%

13.1%

13.1% 13.2%

12.6% 12.4% 12.6%

13.9%

Figures excl. LTTS. from 1QFY23; MPHL (Offshore); Source:

Company, MOFSL

Figures exclude MPHL; Source: Company, MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

TELECOM: Steady quarter with flow-through of tariff hike in the base; next tariff hike key trigger

As expected, 1QFY26 was a steady quarter for the telecom sector, with the benefits of Jul’24 tariff hike in the base.

The combined wireless revenue for three private telcos grew 2.5% QoQ (+16.5% YoY, in-line). Blended wireless ARPU

for the three private telcos rose 1.4% QoQ (+16% YoY), while subscriber trends remained steady with ~8m net adds.

EBITDA for private telcos rose ~4% QoQ (+23% YoY), slightly better than our expectations, driven by healthy

incremental margins for RJio and Bharti. Among private telcos, Bharti remained the biggest gainer in 1QFY26,

recording a 28bp QoQ (+206bp YoY) gains in revenue market share (RMS). However, it lost 15bp QoQ (though still

gained ~90bp) in subscriber market share (SMS). RJio’s RMS remained broadly stable in 1QFY26, with a 3bp QoQ

gain (still 67bp lower YoY). It was the biggest gainer on SMS, rising 35bp QoQ (up 22bp YoY). Vi’s subscriber losses

moderated to 0.5m in 1QFY26. However, it continued to lose market share, with RMS declining ~30bp QoQ (-140bp

YoY) and SMS declining ~20bp QoQ (-113bp YoY). With the full benefits of Jul’24 tariff hikes in the base, further

ARPU growth is likely to be driven by subscriber mix improvements for Bharti/Vi, and rising contribution from home

broadband for RJio over the coming quarters. We continue to assume a 15% (or INR50/month) tariff hike on

smartphone plans from Dec’25. Both Bharti and RJio are accelerating the rollout of their home broadband, adding a

combined ~3.5m net subscribers (adding almost ~8% of the industry’s subscriber base in just 1QFY26).

One extra day and subscriber mix improvement drive ARPU growth; Bharti remains the biggest gainer in 1QFY26

With one extra day QoQ and a continued increase in the proportion of data subscribers, blended ARPU for private

telcos grew 1% QoQ and ~15% YoY (vs. ~17% blended tariff hikes in Jul’25). Bharti remains the biggest beneficiary of

the tariff hikes, recording ~19% YoY growth in wireless ARPU, followed by RJio (+15% YoY) and Vi, which saw the

lowest growth at ~13% YoY.

Overall, wireless subscriber trends remained steady, with ~8m net adds (similar to 4QFY25), driven by a recovery in

RJio’s net adds and a further moderation in VI’s subscriber losses to 0.5m (vs. 1.6m in 4QFY25). However, after ~5m

quarterly net adds in 3Q/4Q, Bharti’s wireless net adds moderated to ~1m in 1QFY26. With steady improvement in

ARPU and stable subscriber net adds, the combined wireless revenue for the private telcos rose ~2% QoQ to

INR656b. Bharti was once again the biggest gainer in 1QFY26, with ~3% QoQ (+22% YoY) growth, followed by ~2%

QoQ wireless revenue growth for RJio (+14% YoY). We note that despite ~17% blended tariff hikes, Vi’s wireless

revenue grew YoY by a modest 6% (~INR22b annualized increase vs ~INR63b, potentially based on the tariff plan

hikes), as higher ARPU (+13% YoY) was offset by a decline in net subscribers (-12m or ~-6% YoY).

Robust incremental margin drives ~4% sequential growth in combined EBITDA for three private telcos

The combined EBITDA for private telcos grew ~4% QoQ (+23% YoY, vs. our est. ~3% QoQ), driven by better

incremental margins for RJio as well as Bharti. RJio led with ~5% QoQ growth in EBITDA, followed by Bharti (+3%

QoQ). Conversely, Vi’s reported EBITDA declined ~1% QoQ, and pre-INDAS 116 EBITDA declined by a sharp ~6% QoQ

to INR21.8b in 1QFY26. Driven by the flow-through of Jul’24 tariff hikes, Bharti was the biggest gainer, with its

annualized EBITDA rising ~INR150b (+30% YoY), followed by ~INR111b (or ~20% YoY) for RJio. Vi’s annualized

reported EBITDA inched up by modest ~INR16b (+10% YoY), while its annualized pre-INDAS 116 EBITDA rose by just

~INR3.2b (+4% YoY), which once again highlights that Vi does not benefit meaningfully from the tariff hikes.

Capex moderates for Bharti as rural rollouts complete; Vi’s capex plans in jeopardy without debt fund raise



After a spike in 4QFY25, Bharti’s India capex, including Indus Towers (Indus), declined 42% QoQ to INR73b (-15%

YoY) due to seasonality and timing differences.



FCF generation (after leases and interest payment) improved to INR143b (vs. ~INR97b QoQ) due to a favorable

movement in working capital (payables up ~INR44b QoQ), which resulted in ~INR130b decline in consol. net

debt (excl. leases) to INR1.26t. India net debt-to-EBITDAaL moderated to 1.35x (vs. 1.53x QoQ).



Similar to Bharti, BHL also saw a moderation in capex and improvement in FCF to ~INR9b (vs. INR6.6b QoQ),

which resulted in net debt (excl. leases) declining ~INR9b QoQ to INR28b (leverage modest at 0.65x).



RJio’s interest cost rose ~55% QoQ (+89% YoY) as it started expensing interest cost on a part of 5G spectrum

through P&L from 1QFY26.

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26



After a record high capex in 4QFY25, Vi’s capex moderated to INR24b (vs ~INR42b QoQ). We believe without an

expedited debt fund raise, Vi’s INR500-550b capex plan over the next three years remains in jeopardy, which will

also weigh on the company’s ability to retain its subscriber base.

Vi’s net debt (excluding leases) increased ~INR69b QoQ to INR1.94t, primarily consisting of deferred spectrum

liabilities and AGR dues to the GoI. Vi has to pay ~INR165b annually towards AGR installments starting Mar’26,

which could further weigh on the company’s capex plans.

Indus’ capital allocation policy disappoints; higher capex to sustain:

Indus’s 1Q recurring results were broadly in

line with estimates, with recurring EBITDA rising 4% QoQ (+14% YoY) to ~INR42.5b. Tower additions moderated due

to the tapering off of Bharti’s rural rollouts, while tenancy additions remained resilient, driven by continued rollout

by Vi. Despite lower tower additions, capex remained elevated due to higher maintenance capex and energy

conservation initiatives. Management has indicated that capex could remain elevated in the near term. Indus

generated FCF of ~INR15.7b. After adjusting for buyback in 1HFY25 and Bharti’s tower acquisitions, we estimate that

Indus had surplus FCF of INR59b (~INR22/share) available for distribution. However, it has chosen to conserve cash

in the near term due to factors such as elevated capex and inorganic growth opportunities. This decision is

disappointing for investors, as Indus is broadly viewed as a dividend yield asset rather than a growth stock.

TCOM’s subdued performance continues:

TCOM reported another subdued quarter with ~1% QoQ growth in data

revenue and consolidated EBITDA. Data revenue growth of ~9% YoY (+1% QoQ) was driven by ~17% YoY (~3% QoQ)

growth in the digital portfolio and modest ~3% YoY growth in core connectivity revenue (-1% QoQ). Consolidated

adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~35bp QoQ (but -125bp YoY) to 19.1%, driven by improved performance from

subsidiaries. Data EBITDA margin contracted further ~30bp QoQ to 17.2% (-250bp YoY, 90bp miss).



Top picks:

BHARTI, RIL



Positive surprises:

Reliance Jio, Airtel Africa



Negative surprises:

Tata Communications

Guidance highlights:



RJio:

5G now accounts for ~45%/56% of RJio’s subscriber base/data consumption. RJio saw an acceleration in

home broadband net adds, driven by FWA ramp-up, UBR, and ‘Unlimited Offer’ during IPL. It continues to target

~100m connection through a mix of FTTH and FWA over the medium term (vs. ~20m at end-1QFY26).



Bharti:

1Q capex was lower due to seasonality and timing differences and should not be extrapolated for FY26.

However, FY26 India capex (excluding Indus) is expected to remain lower than FY25 (~INR300b). Incrementally,

the focus for capex deployment would be on investments in the transport layer, home broadband, data center,

and B2B, while radio capex would moderate. On capital allocation, the company aims to strike a fine balance

between its priorities, such as: 1) deleveraging the balance sheet, 2) stepping up dividend payments, and 3)

selective and prudent investments to bolster capabilities in B2B adjacencies.



BHL:

Similar to its parent Bharti Airtel, management expects BHL’s capex to taper down further in FY26 as there

is no major rural rollout planned in BHL’s circles.



Vi:

After a record high capex in 4QFY25, Vi’s capex moderated to ~INR24b. The company has to pay ~INR164b in

annual installments for AGR dues starting Mar’26 and will require further relief/debt fund raise to meet its

target of ~INR500-550b capex over the medium term.



TCOM:

Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and continued pressures across the industry, TCOM’s order

book recorded double-digit growth, driven by multiple deal wins, with good representation across geography

and data sub-segments.



Indus:

Despite a soft start to FY26, the order book remains robust, and the focus is to drive growth both

organically (through higher market share in key customers’ rollouts) and inorganically (acquisitions of smaller

tower companies).

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 133: Subscriber trends improved for the industry in

Bharti (India)

RJio

Exhibit 134: Bharti continued to lead peers on ARPU

Bharti (India)

RJio

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY23

FY24

FY25

Exhibit 135: Wireless KPI comparison

EOP Wireless SUBS (m)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Avg. Wireless Subs (m)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

ARPU (INR/month)

Bharti (India)

RJio

MOU/Sub (min)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Wireless traffic (B min)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Data usage/Sub (Gb)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

Data traffic (B Gb)

Bharti (India)

Idea

RJio

327

240

420

327

242

415

183

128

176

FY23

328

234

428

328

237

424

190

131

177

332

229

433

330

232

430

193

135

178

335

226

439

334

227

436

193

135

179

339

221

449

337

224

444

200

139

181

FY24

342

220

460

340

221

454

203

142

182

346

215

471

344

218

465

208

145

182

352

213

482

349

214

476

209

146

182

355

210

490

353

211

486

211

146

182

FY25

352

205

479

353

208

484

233

156

195

357

200

482

354

202

480

245

163

203

362

198

488

359

199

485

245

164

206

FY26 YoY QoQ

1Q (%) (%)

363

198

498

362

198

493

250

165

209

2.3 0.3

-5.9 -0.3

1.7 2.0

2.5 0.9

-6.3 -0.5

1.5 1.6

18.8 2.1

13.0 0.6

14.9 1.2

1,104 1,082 1,094 1,122 1,138 1,123 1,127 1,158 1,128 1,135 1,160 1,163 1,143 1.4 -1.7

620

601

611

623

626

613

615

626

607

586

593

598

589 -2.9 -1.4

1001 968

984 1004 1002 979

981 1008 974

977 1013 1024 1007 3.4 -1.6

1,079 1,063 1,082 1,124 1,149 1,148 1,161 1,210 1,195 1,200 1,233 1,254 1,242 3.9 -0.9

450

428

424

425

420

406

401

402

385

365

360

357

350 -9.1 -2.0

1246 1230 1270 1313 1335 1334 1370 1440 1420 1420 1460 1490 1490 4.9 0.0

19.5

13.0

20.8

12.0

5.4

25.9

20.3

13.7

22.2

12.9

5.7

28.2

20.3

13.9

22.4

13.2

5.8

29.0

20.3

13.9

23.1

13.6

5.8

30.3

21.6

14.4

24.9

15.3

6.0

33.2

22.2

14.6

26.6

16.1

6.1

36.3

22.5

14.2

27.3

16.8

6.0

38.1

23.1

14.3

28.6

17.8

6.0

40.9

24.3

14.5

30.3

19.2

6.1

44.1

24.5

14.4

31.0

19.8

6.0

45.0

25.1

14.2

32.3

20.7

5.9

46.5

25.7

15.0

33.6

21.6

6.2

48.9

27.6 13.4 7.2

16.3 12.6 9.2

37.0 22.2 10.0

23.4 21.6 8.4

6.7 10.4 9.4

54.7 24.0 11.9

Source: MOFSL, Company

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 136: Key financial metrics for private telcos

Revenue (INR b)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EBITDA (INR b)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EBITDA Margin (%)

Bharti (India wireless)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

Reported PAT (INR b)

Bharti (consolidated)

Idea

RJio

EPS (INR)

Bharti

Idea

181

328

104

219

165

110

51.1

50.4

41.6

50.1

FY23

189

345

106

225

176

115

52.3

51.0

38.6

51.0

194

358

106

230

104

185

120

53.8

51.5

39.4

52.2

195

360

105

234

105

187

122

53.8

51.9

40.0

52.2

204

374

107

240

112

196

126

54.8

52.3

39.0

52.3

FY24

210

370

107

248

115

195

130

54.9

52.7

40.0

52.3

216

379

107

254

119

198

133

55.1

52.3

40.8

52.3

221

376

106

260

122

194

136

55.1

51.5

40.9

52.4

225

385

105

265

125

197

139

55.6

51.2

40.0

52.6

FY25

248

415

109

283

142

218

150

57.1

52.7

41.6

53.1

263

451

111

293

155

246

155

58.8

54.5

42.4

52.8

266

479

110

300

158

270

159

59.2

56.4

42.3

52.8

FY26

274

495

110

309

163

278

167

59.4

56.3

41.8

54.0

YoY

(%)

21.6

28.5

4.9

16.6

29.9

41.3

9.7

19.9

QoQ

(%)

2.9

3.3

0.1

2.9

3.3

3.1

-1.0

5.3

379bps 22bps

510bps -13bps

183bps -47bps

147bps 124bps

43.0

2.7

23.3

42.4

-38.2

-46.0

-7.8

1.0

-46.1

-37.6

16.1 21.5 15.9 30.1 16.1 13.4 24.4 20.7 41.6 35.9 147.8 110.2 59.5

(73.0) (76.0) (79.9) (64.0) (78.4) (87.4) (77.4) (76.7) (64.3) (71.8) (66.1) (71.7) (66.1)

43.4 45.2 46.4 47.2 48.6 50.6 52.1 53.4 54.5 62.3 64.8 66.4 67.1

2.9

(2.3)

3.8

(2.4)

2.8

(2.5)

5.3

(1.3)

2.8

(1.6)

2.4

(1.8)

4.3

(1.4)

3.6

(1.6)

7.2

(1.0)

6.2

(1.0)

25.5

(1.0)

19.0

(1.0)

10.3

(0.6)

Source: MOFSL, Company

UTILITIES: Capacity growth offsets weak demand



Overall performance:

For our coverage universe, revenue/APAT were in line with our estimates (+3%/9% YoY).

However, EBITDA came in 6% below expectations, primarily due to NTPC/PWGR underperforming by 17%/12%,

while JSWE/TPWR exceeded our estimates by 24%/25%. JSWE and ACME Solar beat our APAT estimates by 31%

and 27%, respectively, amid organic and inorganic capacity additions. SUEL also reported a strong performance,

with deliveries, revenue, and EBITDA being in line with our expectations.

Mixed performance in 1Q – TPWR and JSWE deliver a strong beat, while NTPC and PWGR report a miss: JSWE

outperformed our revenue and EBITDA estimates, driven by higher-than-estimated contributions from the

recently acquired assets – KSK Mahanadi (1.8 GW) and O2 Power (1.3GW) – alongside higher generation from

the fully contracted Vijayanagar coal plant. Net generation rose 71% YoY to 13.5 BUs. RE generation rose 54%

YoY to 5 BUs, driven by organic wind capacity additions and contribution from O2 Power.

IEX’s

standalone

revenue was in line with our estimate, while PAT was 5% above our estimate, primarily due to higher other

income. IEX’s electricity volumes increased 15% YoY, and renewable (RE) volumes surged 149% YoY.

NTPC’s

standalone revenue missed our estimate due to a drop in power generation, while EBITDA was hit by an 86%

YoY jump in other expenses. However, reported PAT beat expectations on account of higher other income and a

lower tax rate. Gross power generation declined 6.7% YoY to 91 BUs. Coal PLF dipped 5% YoY to 75% primarily

due to grid restrictions impacting generation, hydro PLF improved to 59.5%, and gas PLF declined to 11.1% as

gas stations were operating as per grid demand.

TPWR

substantially beat our EBITDA estimate, driven by robust

improvement in the Odisha distribution business as its AT&C losses narrowed and collection efficiency improved,

strong performance in the solar EPC business, and a higher contribution from the cell and module business with

the facility operating at over 90% utilization now. APAT, though in line with our estimate, was hurt by an adverse

charge related to regulatory deferral balances.

PWGR

reported standalone revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted PAT

below estimates amid weaker-than-expected capitalization trends. EBITDA was hit by a spike in other expenses.

ACME Solar

reported a beat in EBITDA driven by capacity additions and improved capacity utilization factor

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

(CUF), while adjusted PAT also surpassed expectations on the back of higher other income.

SUEL

earnings were

aligned with our expectations, with deliveries, revenue, and EBITDA coming in line with our estimates. The miss

at the APAT level was due to a deferred tax charge.



Ratings and earnings revisions:

IEX –

in light of the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)’s

announcement of the phased implementation of market coupling in India, starting with the day-ahead market

(DAM; ~45% of IEX volumes in FY25) by Jan’26, we cut our FY27 earnings estimates by 17%, factoring in a 30%

volume decline and a 10% fall in transaction fee in the DAM segment.

Suzlon –

we cut our FY26 adj. PAT

estimate by 25% as we build in an effective tax rate of 25% (deferred tax and non-cash).

Top picks:

JSWE, Suzlon, and ACME Solar

remain our preferred picks.

Surprises:

JSWE, ACME Solar and TPWR.

Misses:

NTPC and PWGR.

Guidance highlights:



PWGR:

Management reiterated its robust capex trajectory, improving capitalization trends, and a strong project

pipeline. Capex guidance remains unchanged at INR280b/INR350b/INR450b for FY26/FY27/FY28. However, the

capitalization target for FY26 was slightly reduced to INR220b (from the earlier guidance of INR230–250b) due to

persistent right-of-way (RoW) issues. The company is expanding its presence in green hydrogen, BESS, and solar,

with participation in a 2,000 MW/4,000 MWh BESS tender in Rajasthan, aiming to become a significant player in

green hydrogen and BESS over the next 2-3 years.



JSWE:

Management has maintained a growth strategy to achieve 30GW of generation capacity and 40GWh of

energy storage by 2030. For FY26, the company targets a capex of INR150-180b and aims to add 3-4GW of

capacity (excluding 1.3GW from O2 Power). O2 Power’s capacity is 1.8 GW, set to reach 4.7 GW by Jun’27 with

INR 130–140b capex. The acquired 1.8 GW KSK Mahanadi plant has upside potential, with plans to complete its

fourth 600 MW unit (~45% done), and while the tariff trajectory will vary yearly, management remains confident

that its EBITDA will not go below INR24b in any year.



TPWR:

The company aims to commission 1.6 GW of its own RE projects over the next three quarters and

remains on track to add over 2 GW of RE capacity in FY26, despite ongoing land and transmission-related

challenges. The capex target for FY26 stands at INR 250 b. Pumped hydro projects commenced in 1QFY26, with

commissioning scheduled for 2029. Construction of 600MW Dagachhu hydro project in Bhutan has started, with

completion expected by Nov’29. Section XI was not extended beyond 30 June; detailed discussions are

underway for a supplementary PPA (SPPA) for the Mundra plant.



IEX:

Management remains confident of retaining its dominant market share post-market coupling, leveraging

ongoing initiatives to maintain customer loyalty. Market coupling in the DAM segment, targeted for Jan’26, will

require extensive preparatory work by the regulator, including common software development, IT infrastructure

setup, settlement mechanism design, and regulatory formulation, and management expects these processes to

take time. Under the framework, volumes will continue to flow through the originating exchange. Following

CERC’s order, IEX is evaluating multiple options, such as proceeding with the implementation of the order,

approaching CERC for a review, appealing the order before the Appellate Tribunal, etc. However, IEX has not yet

finalized its next course of action.



ACME Solar:

The company targets a capex of INR120-140b annually for the next two years. All FDRE projects

signed before Dec’24 are scheduled to be commissioned by Dec’26. However, the company plans early

commissioning of BESS for the 2.3GW projects, for which necessary approvals have been taken from

counterparties and others, which enables merchant market sales during peak hours and will boost revenue

generation. PPA signings for the Omega Urja (300 MW solar with SJVN), ACME Renewtech (300 MW hybrid with

SECI), and ACME Marigold (400 MW FDRE with NTPC) projects are expected by Aug’25, while the Urja (190 MW

FDRE with SECI) and Platinum Urja (200 MW FDRE with SECI) projects are in advanced stages, with ACME aiming

to conclude signings for this pipeline within the next four months.



Suzlon:

Management reiterated 60% YoY growth guidance for FY26, with the current 5.7GW order book

covering FY26-27 deliveries. The company doesn’t foresee new orders being an issue in the next 2-3 years. The

group CFO will resign effective 31

Aug’25, and the company is in advanced stages of succession planning. The

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

company aims to reduce net working capital days (including inventory) from 90-100 days to 75 days. The tax rate

for FY26 is projected at ~25% with no cash outflow, while cash tax outflows are expected to commence from

FY27. The company sees strong export potential, with an initial focus on the Middle East and Europe. It expects

to begin securing orders by the end of this year and commence exports within the next 12 months. SE Forge

manufactures castings for gearboxes and also produces bearings, positioning it well to capture increased

demand post-ALMM in the wind segment.

Exhibit 137: Key Snapshot

Particulars

Total generation growth (%)

Conv. Generation growth (%)

RE generation growth (%)

*1QFY26 compared with 1QFY25

FY18

5.4

4.1

24.9

161

FY18

5.4

0.0

0.8

9.4

1.8

0.6

18.0

344.0

FY19

5.2

3.6

24.4

176

FY19

3.4

0.0

0.1

6.5

1.6

0.5

12.1

356.1

FY20

0.7

0.0

7.8

183

FY20

4.3

0.0

0.3

6.4

2.1

0.9

14.0

370.1

FY21

-0.6

-1.6

7.7

189

FY21

4.1

0.0

0.5

5.5

1.6

0.4

12.0

382.2

FY22

8.1

7.1

16.2

201

FY22

1.4

0.0

0.5

13.9

1.1

0.4

17.3

399.5

FY23

9.0

7.7

19.1

212

FY23

1.2

0.0

0.1

12.8

2.3

0.2

16.6

416.1

FY24

7.2

6.7

10.9

240

FY24

5.9

1.4

0.1

15.0

3.3

0.2

25.9

442.0

FY25

5.0

4.0

11.7

250

1QFY26*

-1.7

-5.8

24.8

242

All India Peak Demand (GW)

Capacity addition (GW)

Thermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Other RE

Total capacity addition

Total capacity (GW)

FY25

1QFY26

3.7

-4.9

0.0

0.6

0.8

1.7

23.8

10.6

4.2

1.6

0.7

0.0

33.3

9.6

475.2

484.8

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 138: India’s power generation

India's Power generation (BU)

12.2

3.1 6.7 2.2 -1.6

12.5

-7.1

12.5

Addition in Power generation (BU)

18.6

-5.7

-10.4

-1.2

-19.6

3.9

11.1

5.6

-5.1 -2.6 -5.8 -4.2 1.3

-19.3

9.1 6.6

-2.8

1.6 0.6

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 139: Domestic power generation capacity (GW)

India's Power generation capacity (GW)

Source: NPP, MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Exhibit 140: India’s peak demand

Peak Demand (GW)

Source: CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 141:

Domestic power supply (BUs)

Power supplied (BU)

Source: CEA, MOFSL

Exhibit 142: Domestic power generation growth

Total Generation including RE (BU)

4% 5%

6% 6% 5% 5%

-1%

% growth

Exhibit 143: Peak demand growth

Peak Demand (GW)

Source: NPP, CEA, MOFSL

Source: CEA, MOFSL

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

ANNEXURE:

MOFSL UNIVERSE (ACTUAL V/S EXPECTATIONS)

Sales (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

3,203.1 4.0 -4.8

2.7

33.5

7.0 12.6

2.9

65.6

3.6

2.1

-2.2

87.2

1.5 -26.7

-0.8

125.8

5.5

3.6

2.6

27.6

0.7 -2.8

-1.7

21.0 -10.0 -2.7

-7.0

47.9

10.9 -2.5

3.7

35.3

10.5 3.2

-0.4

23.7

3.3

4.2

8.1

17.8

55.0 2.0

4.8

33.2

17.5 12.0

3.0

50.4

14.8 -3.8

1.5

24.8

-2.9 2.2

-4.9

45.1

4.6

8.4

1.5

3.5

3.6

0.5

-1.3

95.8

-5.6 -3.6

-0.9

164.1 -5.4 -8.5

-1.2

340.8 26.1 8.7

3.1

384.1

8.1 -5.6

6.9

302.1

4.7

3.1

-1.2

24.9

14.2 -0.6

3.8

75.6

6.8

8.9

2.7

8.0

-10.3 -5.7

-0.4

1,044.1 -3.4 -12.6

4.7

20.1

2.4

2.5

-2.6

100.8 20.4 5.6

0.4

989.6 14.6 -22.3

0.8

31.8

12.2 0.5

-1.3

44.2

5.2 -51.6

-8.8

29.1

26.2 18.3

9.4

48.2

10.8 -64.8

-8.2

14.8

11.4 -21.5

-21.9

50.2

11.3 -26.9

-1.4

50.4

35.4 -18.8

9.8

14.4

7.6

2.3

3.0

636.8 15.5 -14.4

3.0

43.5

15.5 2.1

3.2

21.5

-1.6 -30.3

-12.0

3.7

-19.9 -31.0

-24.7

1.1

-56.3 -62.2

-57.1

660.8 15.2 -4.6

0.4

60.7

16.7 0.2

4.4

102.9 22.6 3.1

4.4

24.5

12.0 -12.8

1.0

36.4

0.4 -11.1

-2.8

92.2

33.8 3.3

4.5

10.2

5.5 -14.4

-13.0

33.5

19.4 -6.4

3.7

17.4

11.3 -8.3

5.1

20.7

-0.9 -13.5

-9.2

49.5

2.3 -5.6

0.0

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

377.9 -12.9 -18.1

-2.1

3.9

-10.2 13.0

-1.1

8.7

-4.6

3.6

-0.4

9.7

6.4 -45.9

2.1

24.8

2.7

1.3

2.7

6.6

-8.1 -6.8

-6.9

5.7

-12.2 -7.3

-10.1

6.4

23.0 -1.2

12.5

3.9

1.3

-0.1

-4.9

3.4

-6.5

0.4

5.8

2.6

34.3 8.8

7.3

4.4

18.7 5.1

2.0

12.0

3.2

-4.4

3.0

3.2

2.6 11.0

1.2

5.5

10.9 17.5

8.3

1.0

3.6

-1.1

-2.0

13.8

-5.3 -2.4

3.6

21.9

-6.6 -13.7

9.5

48.8

21.4 4.3

3.2

40.0 -11.3 -6.3

5.5

24.6 -11.4 -7.0

-11.5

2.4

2.3

-9.9

-7.0

10.3

-9.1 -0.8

-6.3

1.9

-22.9 -10.3

0.3

97.2 -37.3 -41.5

-10.9

2.5

3.1

8.5

0.3

12.6

31.5 -5.2

4.9

118.6 16.2 -40.3

1.7

4.1

-23.7 -28.9

-30.0

12.4

32.4 -55.5

14.8

6.2

33.4 20.0

16.7

12.8

29.4 -75.8

1.8

1.5

223.4 -42.9

-28.8

3.5

29.5 -35.0

-1.8

4.3

36.7 -18.1

9.8

1.9

-3.8

9.3

8.5

63.2

12.5 -23.0

3.0

5.2

7.4 11.5

-1.8

2.3

59.5 -24.9

11.6

0.7

-23.0 -38.9

-26.5

0.4

-63.1 -59.7

-59.2

114.7 40.9 -1.9

2.1

7.7

14.1 -3.4

-10.0

19.6

53.2 5.0

8.1

3.5

34.3 -35.0

-8.5

8.8

32.0 11.3

8.6

3.8

18.3 74.4

74.3

0.8

LP 16624

20.6

6.9

41.4 -10.1

3.7

3.1

39.9 -11.4

4.9

4.0

24.5 23.9

-11.1

12.3

34.1 -13.0

-4.6

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

-3.4

-18.9

-20.7

16.3

-15.1

3.9

13.0

-52.7

5.4

2.3

-39.9

-20.8

-10.6

-6.2

44.0

21.1

-22.7

-9.4

-6.2

-1.4

42.3

1.0

11.0

-4.0

9.4

-11.5

18.5

16.4

14.6

25.9

2.9

-3.1

0.3

4.1

-8.1

-15.2

32.0

41.6

1.7

0.0

-37.5

-38.1

-3.9

-13.2

-13.9

-2.7

-11.9

-15.3

-28.3

-55.4

8.8

-35.4

34.9

-8.6

17.7

-41.2

-20.5

-25.7

24.9

-54.0

32.3

6.5

-3.7

-65.2

1163.0 -33.3

42.3

-53.5

72.1

-24.4

-8.8

16.3

29.8

-29.5

-3.1

3.8

38.4

-26.3

-19.9

-31.9

-50.0

-56.3

51.2

-0.8

5.0

-25.1

14.7

64.2

266.6

-58.3

65.8

4.8

Loss

75.0

-10.3

62.6

-14.5

142.3 204.5

94.7

6.8

Var. over

Exp. (%)

7.5

-7.0

-12.0

3.2

5.6

-33.1

-14.5

36.6

-26.8

6.6

14.9

-0.7

13.3

1.7

12.5

-1.6

7.7

12.9

12.2

25.7

-35.9

-10.4

-4.6

26.3

9.2

4.7

5.0

5.4

-27.3

15.5

13.1

9.8

1.6

6.5

30.0

10.0

7.7

-12.1

19.2

-22.1

-54.4

8.7

-24.2

2.3

-10.6

14.9

Loss

18.9

18.8

-27.1

38.6

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja Energy

Apollo Tyres

Ashok Leyland

Bajaj Auto

Balkrishna Inds

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

CIE Automotive

Craftsman Auto

Endurance Tech.

Eicher Motors

Escorts Kubota

Exide Inds.

Happy Forgings

Hero Motocorp

Hyundai Motor

Mahindra & Mahindra

Maruti Suzuki

Samvardhana Motherson

Motherson Wiring

MRF

Sona BLW Precis.

Tata Motors

Tube Investments

TVS Motor

Capital Goods

ABB India

Bharat Electronics

Cummins India

Hind.Aeronautics

Hitachi Energy

KEC International

Kalpataru Proj.

Kirloskar Oil

Larsen & Toubro

Siemens

Thermax

Triveni Turbine

Zen Technologies

Cement

ACC

Ambuja Cements

Birla Corporation

Dalmia Bharat

Grasim Industries

India Cements

J K Cements

JK Lakshmi Cem.

Ramco Cements

Shree Cement

Jun-25

229.3

1.9

2.8

5.9

21.0

2.9

3.4

6.7

1.1

2.0

0.8

2.3

12.1

3.2

0.7

11.3

13.7

34.5

37.1

6.2

1.4

4.8

1.2

39.7

1.7

7.8

81.3

3.5

9.7

5.6

13.8

1.3

1.2

2.0

1.2

36.2

4.2

1.5

0.6

0.4

49.1

3.8

7.3

1.2

3.7

-1.2

-0.1

3.2

1.5

0.9

6.2

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Jun-25

212.8 13.1 -7.8

-2.6

44.1

46.2 -4.5

0.8

22.5

169.0

3.4 -2.3

-5.1

32.2

7.6

3.1

2.3

18.5

4.1

1.5

5.0

-3.9

0.8

-3.2 12.9

-2.4

0.5

14.8

11.8 1.8

-0.9

2.4

5.5

5.6

-1.8

1.3

2.4

8.4 -7.9

-6.5

1.0

5.5

-4.7

0.4

0.7

18.9 -12.8 -13.3

-2.1

1.9

-38.7 -40.1

-5.3

1.1

5.6

10.0 -3.0

0.5

1.1

-11.9 -0.9

9.2

0.9

12.8

31.2 11.6

6.9

1.2

-0.2 -2.4

-0.4

0.8

7.3

38.5 3.5

-6.9

2.1

106.1 15.7

2.0

1.2

3.4

-9.7 -1.0

-3.9

0.3

-25.6 -11.8

-26.1

0.2

19.0

-8.1 6.3

-9.7

5.2

-11.0 13.9

-1.4

4.0

38.2

10.2 -11.5

-8.2

8.2

32.3 -18.1

-1.3

4.2

37.2

-1.8 6.0

-6.7

6.5

13.1 98.5

13.6

2.5

5.4

3.3 -16.4

-3.4

1.7

32.6 -9.7

20.3

1.1

974.9

8.3

8.9

2.3

222.2

1.2

8.7

-0.1

156.8

89.4

-0.3 6.9

-1.3

16.2

-4.1 13.1

-3.0

11.2

45.3

9.8

3.6

1.2

7.6

0.4

-6.0

-4.5

5.2

14.3

-4.2 -1.9

-5.6

4.5

-11.0 -9.1

-8.6

3.2

34.0

1.7 20.3

-0.7

6.7

2.0 56.4

1.9

5.2

9.0

-0.2 -6.1

3.3

2.1

-1.1 -2.4

9.0

1.8

36.6

9.9

1.8

-0.4

6.9

-4.4 -8.5

-7.9

4.7

165.1

5.1

5.4

0.6

37.2

-0.7

2.7

0.9

25.3

3.1

-0.7 -20.3

-4.5

0.4

-6.5 -49.3

-11.2

0.3

214.9 16.5 14.5

10.8

68.2

1.0

4.6

0.6

52.4

7.5

1.3 12.6

-2.1

1.2

-7.0 10.9

-8.1

1.0

24.6

19.0 10.6

4.8

2.7

10.2 2.8

-5.1

1.7

32.6

23.3 19.4

1.7

6.6

4.6 43.0

-3.5

5.0

51.0

5.9 -7.4

0.1

11.2

-0.5 -20.8

-5.6

6.5

9.4

0.6 -5.5

-4.9

2.7

102.7 27.0

48.1

1.9

13.2

3.1 19.9

-8.2

2.9

21.1 25.3

0.2

2.0

37.5

10.5 19.5

0.4

9.4

15.8 48.8

7.0

6.7

15.1

32.5 15.5

8.9

2.3

55.8 30.7

17.4

1.4

47.8

9.8

3.7

1.4

6.1

-9.1 -2.3

-0.7

3.3

28.6

15.7 23.3

5.2

3.1

9.1 66.7

-5.7

1.8

25.5

8.4 -13.5

2.0

4.2

-9.4 -17.8

-0.8

3.0

70.2

-2.5 26.1

-2.5

20.0

0.4 58.1

1.8

13.2

199.5

3.4 -14.9

-1.4

19.5

3.3 -25.2

-1.7

13.7

54.6

-6.0 -16.6

-6.6

5.2

-9.9 -31.9

-8.4

3.5

25.9

25.7 -11.1

9.4

2.6

20.3 -14.4

11.6

2.0

59.1

25.7 -15.5

4.8

8.6

47.0 -16.4

16.3

5.9

20.6

13.9 -7.2

1.2

1.4

49.6 -26.9

1.4

0.9

39.4 -20.0 -17.4

-9.6

1.8

-57.9 -46.4

-43.4

1.4

186.0 66.0 8.7

9.9

10.3

66.2 -18.7

13.0

5.0

34.5

43.6 -8.1

35.4

2.6

30.8 -12.9

28.7

1.0

3.2

62.1 -5.7

32.9

0.3

583.6 -27.7

116.5

0.1

2.8

8.0 -35.0

0.9

0.3

25.3 -56.4

29.4

0.1

1.0

-4.6 -74.9

-20.5

0.3

-13.7 -78.5

-27.4

0.3

128.4 95.1 24.7

7.0

4.8

94.6 8.9

7.7

2.2

6.7

33.6 -31.6

-10.9

1.1

69.0 -32.7

8.5

0.7

9.4

-18.6 2.1

-3.1

0.9

94.3 -19.4

10.5

0.5

4,132.2 5.9 -12.4

0.2

1,935.0 15.7 4.9

9.4

1,203.4

934.5

3.8

1.0

0.7

822.5 22.9 21.8

18.0

430.3

20.4

6.5 -2.4

-4.2

13.1

37.9 1.5

6.7

5.8

135.6

0.8 -1.8

-0.6

115.2 13.9 7.1

8.3

58.1

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

44.0

-9.4

14.0

7.2

1.2

7.4

18.1

1.7

6.3

-5.4

-44.6

-11.3

-0.8

-0.3

4.8

128.8

23.3

-39.1

-18.6

-10.9

21.0

57.2

-25.8

86.7

31.1

-11.6

1.9

9.9

-5.9

26.4

-1.8

-7.0

-11.9

-9.7

2.7

59.0

8.3

1.7

0.4

8.0

-4.5

-1.5

-1.0

-54.4

3.0

3.3

-4.8

20.1

10.0

5.0

8.6

46.9

-13.4

-25.9

111.4

23.0

21.5

22.4

18.6

50.3

83.9

54.7

10.2

7.5

6.0

88.7

-0.9

-22.0

5.2

81.3

1.0

-25.8

-14.7

-32.8

30.3

-13.6

49.5

-18.5

39.4

-30.5

-58.0

-41.7

57.7

-23.2

43.5

-10.5

-41.5

-29.6

-76.0

-22.2

-77.6

68.3

21.9

46.9

-35.8

157.8

-24.0

5.9

-6.8

0.7

4.9

15.6

15.3

-3.8

-18.4

Company

Ultratech Cement

Chemicals-Specialty

Alkyl Amines

Atul

Clean Science

Deepak Nitrite

Fine Organic

Galaxy Surfactants

Navin Fluorine

NOCIL

P I Industries

SRF

Tata Chemicals

Vinati Organics

Consumer

Asian Paints

Britannia

Colgate

Dabur

Emami

Godrej Consumer

Hind. Unilever

Indigo Paints

ITC

Jyothy Labs

L T Foods

Marico

Nestle

P&G Hygiene

Page Industries

Pidilite Inds.

Radico Khaitan

Tata Consumer

United Breweries

United Spirits

Varun Beverages

Consumer Durables

Havells India

KEI Industries

Polycab India

R R Kabel

Voltas

EMS

Amber Enterp.

Avalon Tech

Cyient DLM

Data Pattern

Dixon Tech.

Kaynes Tech

Syrma SGS Tech.

Financials

Banks-Private

AU Small Finance

Axis Bank

Var. over

Exp. (%)

2.0

3.7

-6.3

-5.8

-7.2

-5.4

7.1

5.2

4.4

-34.2

2.8

-3.7

37.9

19.9

-0.7

-1.2

-6.0

-9.2

4.8

18.1

-8.5

-2.8

-9.9

0.5

-4.2

-1.8

-0.8

-13.3

30.1

-0.6

8.1

28.1

1.2

-12.3

3.5

0.9

-2.4

-11.3

12.3

17.4

2.7

-42.0

8.1

52.1

102.5

-12.3

-31.5

3.9

-5.9

8.9

3.1

3.3

5.0

-2.8

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

27.6

-8.2 0.0

1.5

5.8

16.9 4.0

1.5

7.9

-2.0 -5.3

-3.0

23.4

2.0 -1.7

1.7

314.4

5.4 -2.0

-1.4

216.3 10.6 2.1

3.4

49.3

5.1

0.5

46.4 -14.2 52.2

11.6

72.6

6.1 -0.3

0.5

14.8 -12.9 -5.3

-0.3

875.7 -0.4 -3.1

-0.8

114.3 -1.4 -0.5

6.0

90.1

-1.7 -4.6

-1.5

63.6

2.9 -0.5

-1.0

105.8

1.0 -1.7

-0.1

91.1

-3.2 -4.2

-1.8

410.7 -0.1 -4.0

-2.3

1,775.3 7.7 -24.4

0.1

148.8 16.1 -38.1

-3.1

51.4

14.0 -1.7

4.7

89.5

8.1 -46.8

0.2

1,192.0 4.8 -19.2

0.0

64.0

18.5 -46.1

2.2

12.2

19.8 -20.1

0.1

178.1 14.4 -25.8

1.1

39.4

11.9 3.7

2.7

472.5 15.7 0.9

1.6

2.8

13.5 2.6

-1.9

102.3 22.3 4.3

-0.2

3.6

12.9 4.1

3.3

31.8

23.7 4.2

-1.8

9.1

-2.3 3.4

0.1

5.8

19.6 3.2

0.5

2.7

-31.4 1.4

0.7

1.9

32.6 12.4

-3.4

12.9 -10.0 -1.5

-10.3

22.8

8.4

6.0

5.1

20.7

3.9 -4.6

-4.8

20.1

12.8 4.4

0.4

13.8 -10.2 -4.4

-4.7

2.4

35.7 5.2

3.0

34.7

50.7 19.6

9.9

54.7

26.4 -7.5

12.8

7.5

16.2 2.5

0.6

6.4

11.0 4.8

-6.2

55.7

19.2 -9.7

2.9

1.8

8.3

6.3

3.6

57.7

10.3 3.7

-0.9

1.3

-70.1 -36.7

-7.8

74.2

17.0 7.0

-0.6

6.6

10.3 1.6

3.1

4.5

15.7 4.3

0.0

2.7

15.3 23.4

11.9

8.0

-13.1 6.9

2.9

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

16.7 -14.0 6.2

-0.8

3.3

59.2 7.0

6.3

3.1

-7.5

1.1

3.3

15.6

3.7

6.2

7.5

357.3 49.6 34.7

36.8

187.5 17.0 6.1

5.7

22.4

19.0 23.6

21.1

25.7 -35.0 LP

13.1

55.6

5.9

1.7

3.6

7.0

-18.2 -18.4

-7.6

660.9 10.0 -1.6

7.5

82.4

15.0 1.3

15.4

85.5

12.3 3.3

8.2

47.7

6.0

-4.9

-5.8

70.8

7.6

4.5

5.8

69.1 -11.3 -10.3

-7.1

305.4 15.5 -2.4

12.2

41.8

13.0 -46.3

-0.8

8.1

12.7 -41.2

-4.8

-2.9

Loss Loss

Loss

4.6

-3.2 -42.5

1.8

19.4

20.7 -45.0

-0.6

3.4

31.9 -60.7

9.1

-2.3

Loss

10.9

12.4 -34.3

-2.4

0.7

-48.9 LP

0.3

370.9 11.5 -3.4

-1.5

1.9

12.3 -5.2

-3.9

84.9

22.2 6.5

0.7

3.0

8.7

3.2

1.5

24.1

30.4 3.4

3.0

6.5

-7.9

3.0

-0.3

4.0

13.5 1.6

2.9

0.9

-70.9 -3.9

-5.4

1.7

41.2 15.5

5.3

8.7

26.3 32.0

-13.6

15.8

7.3 10.6

0.5

18.9

6.8

0.7

0.5

13.5

19.3 11.6

2.7

6.6

-32.7 -3.3

-2.7

1.5

30.9 2.2

0.5

27.9

62.6 29.8

15.2

48.3

5.0 -26.2

-11.0

6.3

16.5 -2.3

-1.4

3.2

-24.9 -2.5

15.7

50.3

4.8 -18.4

-4.5

1.4

4.1

9.8

6.7

41.9

8.8

-3.3

-3.4

-0.6

Loss

38.9

18.0 8.6

0.7

3.1

-7.3 -2.2

-0.6

2.7

20.8 9.0

2.2

1.3

30.1 40.7

37.1

1.6

-58.6 -30.2

3.7

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY

QoQ Exp. (%)

-65.0

17.0

-18.6

19.7

-11.2

-8.8

-14.6

-16.4

-6.4

12.2

3.1

6.0

15.5

1.1

6.4

-32.0

52.1

87.4

-72.2

5.6

-6.8

-7.6

-5.7

-46.1

191.6

41.8

7.2

-9.7

2.3

1.9

-10.0

8.8

21.7

-5.0

14.7

23.7

0.6

4.7

-48.5

-63.3

-59.6

11.9

-17.4

0.9

12.5

2.8

12.6

5.6

-37.4

1.2

14.4

14.7

10.6

28.7

46.6

23.9

33.5

-21.9

24.0

5.0

-42.2

0.3

-44.9

126.3

-41.7

Loss

14.4

-26.9

0.2

-17.7 50385

-9.6

13.5

3.4

4.7

10.4

-9.4

-4.6

21.8

4.8

2.9

12.1

-4.3

3.5

20.6

-10.3

0.7

-84.9

27.5

-28.5

5.9

-4.6

-1.5

Loss

35.5

13.6

3.2

-19.0

12.4

-19.5

2.2

10.2

-0.3

4.6

-0.6

-1.2

3.2

-6.0

-0.3

-76.2

19.1

3.8

0.8

89.7

35.7

20.7

21.1

-11.9

2.7

23.3

-3.1

5.5

-78.5

0.4

-40.4

29.3

5.1

7.9

2.4

-6.1

5.7

8.8

0.8

4.2

Loss

16.7

16.9

5.3

18.0

14.9

7.2

17.6

21.5

7.5

27.9

27.3

34.7

-60.9

-34.4

-2.5

Company

Bandhan Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Small Fin.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC First Bank

IndusInd Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank

RBL Bank

Banks-PSU

Bank of Baroda

Canara Bank

Indian Bank

Punjab National Bank

Union Bank

State Bank

Insurance

HDFC Life Insur.

ICICI Lombard

ICICI Pru Life

Life Insurance Corp.

Max Financial

Niva Bupa Health

SBI Life Insurance

Star Health

NBFC - Lending

AAVAS Financiers

Bajaj Finance

Can Fin Homes

Chola. Inv & Fin.

CreditAccess

Five-Star Business

Fusion Finance

Home First Fin.

IIFL Finance

L&T Finance

LIC Housing Fin

M & M Financial

Manappuram Finance

MAS Financial

Muthoot Finance

PFC

PNB Housing

Poonawalla Fincorp

REC

Repco Home Fin

Shriram Finance

Spandana Sphoorty

NBFC - Non Lending

360 ONE WAM

Aditya Birla AMC

Anand Rathi Wealth

Angel One

Jun-25

3.7

1.6

-2.2

8.6

181.6

127.7

4.6

6.0

32.8

2.0

372.2

45.4

47.5

29.7

16.8

41.2

191.6

134.3

5.5

7.5

3.0

109.9

0.9

-0.9

5.9

2.6

231.6

1.4

47.7

2.2

11.4

0.6

2.7

-0.9

1.2

2.3

7.0

13.6

5.3

1.3

0.8

20.5

45.0

5.3

0.6

44.5

1.1

21.6

-3.6

35.1

2.9

2.8

0.9

1.1

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

9.6

59.2 13.2

-2.2

3.5

6.9 -0.6

-5.7

2.6

0.6 15.3

-7.9

9.7

24.9 7.4

2.4

2.7

15.4 -3.1

-8.6

3.7

59.2 28.1

-2.6

6.1

20.1 7.1

-0.7

7.7

15.4 -0.1

-4.0

2.9

17.8 3.8

0.2

3.8

12.6 5.3

-0.3

930.2 10.3 1.5

0.4

17.1

9.5 -3.3

0.1

33.7

11.2 7.2

8.9

13.0

13.8 11.3

3.7

58.4

14.9 4.5

1.8

78.7

4.0 -6.1

-0.8

39.4

14.8 -10.8

-7.0

3.5

117.8 4.2

-3.8

69.6

3.9

3.4

0.3

24.1

13.8 -6.8

-4.5

4.9

20.8 5.9

-7.1

85.5

11.4 0.5

1.2

7.7

7.4

9.6

-0.6

15.1

7.4

5.7

-0.9

32.6

0.6

0.3

-9.2

10.3

19.7 10.7

6.9

12.1

2.6

1.1

1.5

8.1

-1.2 -17.4

-8.5

23.1

10.3 2.8

-2.7

15.7

31.4 -8.8

5.0

62.7

11.9 10.6

3.6

35.7

23.4 15.9

0.3

24.5

26.9 6.5

0.4

19.3

-0.9 -29.8

-9.6

137.9 10.1 7.6

2.7

31.8

11.2 7.4

-1.0

65.7

5.9

0.7

4.7

44.0

-3.6 -10.9

-3.1

18.3

-3.7 -6.0

6.7

21.0

13.3 -2.3

-0.3

4.8

-41.5 -43.7

-34.1

177.4 19.1 2.3

1.7

91.3

31.2 7.5

6.3

14.4

7.4

1.7

-1.6

21.5

2.5 -5.8

-5.9

12.2

21.2 -4.6

0.0

16.2

14.4 3.5

-0.9

2.9

-2.1 -6.7

-8.7

11.4

9.0 -3.4

-4.7

7.4

2.4 -8.0

0.8

45.5

-1.0 4.8

-3.1

14.7

23.4 17.5

2.0

12.6

-1.5 38.3

-3.7

18.2 -14.3 -16.5

-6.5

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

6.3

121.6 29.3

7.1

1.5

3.0

-3.2

-9.7

1.3

-15.5 19.3

-16.8

7.7

30.1 5.9

4.1

1.1

14.2 -6.9

-10.0

2.4

82.3 50.9

-3.5

3.9

22.7 6.3

-1.6

3.5

19.0 3.8

-0.6

0.7

14.0 -2.0

-1.2

1.7

8.6 12.4

-8.0

225.6

9.9

3.3

2.4

2.8

18.8 3.4

2.9

7.4

21.4 88.9

38.0

3.8

4.5 26.7

7.4

8.5

26.2 10.7

9.2

16.0

-5.4 -13.9

-6.8

7.5

20.5 -30.6

-18.0

1.2

173.4 -13.6

-21.1

17.8

3.6 15.6

9.1

7.3

17.2 -17.7

-13.8

1.3

23.3 -3.9

-27.5

21.5

1.1

4.9

12.7

2.8

10.7 9.6

-3.0

3.7

39.1 5.8

13.1

5.8

-4.9

3.5

-13.8

2.3

22.8 4.5

5.9

2.5

-4.8 -2.2

-5.5

2.5

8.9 -24.6

-5.5

4.2

6.0

-2.9

-15.2

3.8

123.2 -9.1

22.9

16.4

20.6 27.0

10.2

8.5

17.0 19.6

-4.9

6.2

24.9 1.6

-1.3

1.1

-47.8 -81.0

-47.5

40.1

13.5 22.1

8.7

10.5

13.3 6.7

-2.1

20.3

-3.7 -6.2

3.7

12.4

0.4 -12.1

-0.5

2.3

-6.3 -23.2

14.4

9.5

11.1 -4.6

0.5

0.6

-54.5 -47.5

-38.9

69.8

24.9 5.6

2.4

55.0

29.5 9.8

6.5

1.0

-8.5 -15.2

-34.9

4.3

-1.3 -1.6

-11.6

5.8

12.9 -9.3

-5.8

0.8

15.0 -1.9

-7.9

0.3

-14.3 6.8

-16.5

1.2

16.6 -0.6

-5.4

1.5

74.5 -18.8

-3.6

9.4

0.0 34.1

-7.8

1.0

24.0

6.2

-12.6 44.6

-11.0

2.3

-16.1 -20.1

-8.6

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

101.3

7.3

1.0

-4.2

-23.6

2.0

23.8

17.1

13.5

-9.2

83.2

50.0

19.1

32.6

19.4

3.4

17.1

0.3

-7.5

148.9

10.8

0.9

14.6

-1.6

19.8

113.5

2.0

21.9

41.8

11.1

-8.5

-12.5

-90.8

141.3

-17.2

10.2

6.2

20.2

-21.1

148.3

-16.2

1.8

-7.7

41.0

25.1

49.9

15.5

-42.2

-29.8

41.2

7.7

-1.4

3.5

12.4

-22.0

21.3

-3.6

1164.5 -14.6

27.4

53.2

-24.3

34.5

20.1

-5.1

Loss

9.0

3.7

18.7

5.8

-1.2

4.3

12.7

-19.9

14.2

-24.6

44.6

-5.7

-46.4

-42.4

24.9

3.1

27.7

9.8

-8.9

-11.8

0.9

-14.7

19.7

-19.6

Loss

-12.7

0.6

17.0

-6.7

272.4

-32.6

13.2

27.2

Loss

-3.3

26.0

-6.8

-23.8

Company

BSE

Cams Services

CDSL

HDFC AMC

KFin Technologies

MCX

Nippon Life AMC

Nuvama Wealth

Prudent Corp.

UTI AMC

Healthcare

Alembic Pharma

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Apollo Hospitals

Aurobindo Pharma

Biocon

Blue Jet Healthcare

Cipla

Divis Labs

Dr Agarwals Health.

Dr Reddy’ s Labs

ERIS Lifescience

Gland Pharma

Glenmark Pharma

Global Health

Granules India

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs.

Laurus Labs

Lupin

Mankind Pharma

Max Healthcare

Piramal Pharma

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Zydus Lifesciences

Infrastructure

G R Infraproject

IRB Infra

KNR Constructions

Logistics

Adani Ports

Blue Dart Express

Concor

JSW Infra

Mahindra Logistics

TCI Express

Transport Corp.

VRL Logistics

Media

PVR Inox

Sun TV

Zee Entertainment

Jun-25

5.3

1.1

1.0

7.5

0.8

2.0

4.0

2.6

0.5

2.5

139.6

1.5

6.5

2.7

4.3

8.3

0.3

0.9

13.0

5.2

0.3

14.2

1.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

1.3

2.0

2.3

1.6

11.5

4.3

3.7

-1.0

30.0

5.6

14.2

4.6

2.2

2.0

0.4

41.9

33.7

0.5

2.6

3.6

-0.1

0.2

1.1

0.5

6.4

-0.3

5.3

1.4

Var. over

Exp. (%)

10.9

-9.8

-27.7

9.5

-13.1

1.0

7.7

-0.6

0.3

14.8

0.2

-0.3

48.1

7.9

12.8

-7.8

-72.5

-24.4

7.4

-17.9

-58.4

8.6

-7.4

15.7

-44.0

10.7

-0.6

0.1

-17.8

29.9

23.3

-6.9

-13.5

Loss

-5.8

-7.2

11.5

7.3

23.8

9.6

-39.0

4.1

9.3

-37.7

-20.1

-0.5

-19.7

2.3

-6.8

-3.0

Loss

-5.8

-10.6

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY QoQ Exp. (%) Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

3.6 -5.5

1.3

586.9

7.3

-4.0

1.7

-1.7 -5.2

-3.8

111.3 -3.6 -0.9

-3.0

12.7 -1.0

5.7

79.1

5.4 -10.5

9.0

-4.4 -14.5

2.7

38.6

-2.2 -19.9

0.2

8.2

0.1

-0.1

13.1

8.1 23.5

15.3

-9.7 -6.7

-1.6

30.1

5.9 21.1

18.1

0.5 -3.7

1.0

75.8

37.5 18.8

6.3

33.3 -27.7

-11.8

14.9

59.7 -45.8

-11.2

24.5 -3.8

-1.9

24.8

6.0 20.8

4.7

7.3 -12.2

-6.6

26.0

16.9 -25.5

-22.2

-2.9 -5.4

6.2

74.3

11.0 13.2

6.7

5.8 -6.5

2.0

99.2

-0.3 -13.5

-0.8

-0.3 -3.6

3.5

1,001.1 17.2 0.1

-6.4

0.5 -7.7

-5.7

701.7

1.6

-3.7

-3.3

7.4

0.8

-2.6

2.4

3.3 -41.3

-13.7

-0.5 1.2

23.7

96.6

70.9 23.7

-11.5

7.1

5.3

2.4

3.5

8.4 13.7

2.7

3.3 -2.6

1.7

33.3 -26.4 3.6

-7.0

-13.0 -5.6

-7.8

5.2

-2.9 15.7

-7.6

-27.7 20.3

16.2

2.0

-32.8 62.3

24.4

-2.7 1.2

23.7

76.7 269.1 33.3

-8.8

11.2 -0.9

-2.8

5.1

-12.0 2.9

-9.9

-0.1 -1.0

2.6

126.1 46.0 -7.1

-16.0

24.3 6.0

8.0

4.9

16.0 28.3

19.6

-25.3 -29.4

-5.3

2.0

-67.9 -82.4

-86.2

-14.2 -9.2

1.8

16.1 -34.9 -19.0

-25.8

-9.3 -8.5

5.3

186.6 -0.5 -1.8

12.5

-11.4 -3.5

-2.3

11.6 -25.8 -23.3

-5.0

5.1 -6.8

-8.4

429.1 10.7 -2.1

-5.2

17.8 -17.2

-9.8

35.8

3.2 -26.1

-28.5

25.6 9.6

34.5

1.5

46.3 5.8

-3.9

18.9 -12.3

34.1

3.2

10.6 -22.2

-3.9

99.4 -13.1

62.2

3.6

59.3 -62.8

-41.0

-41.2 -79.5

-57.2

-2.4

Loss

-75.8 -88.5

-90.4

-0.3

22.7 -17.3

-12.4

9.8

30.1 -19.4

-13.3

-83.0 246.0

-77.5

-0.6

Loss Loss

Loss

-29.7 -14.1

-31.2

5.2

-36.2 -15.8

-39.0

5.4 -6.2

-15.0

5.6

6.3

0.8

-18.6

23.9 51.0

-1.9

8.9

12.2 65.2

59.6

116.1 66.3

-23.6

0.3

LP -24.2

-83.9

33.0 -31.3

-18.3

0.2

-57.4 -74.7

-81.7

-40.5 -8.6

-19.8

0.5

52.1 -30.5

14.8

14.5 10.8

1.5

68.3

17.6 17.0

5.3

-46.6 6.5

4.5

1.1

-68.8 -45.5

22.4

16.3 10.0

-0.1

13.0

6.4 36.0

-4.5

-2.8 1.4

-1.7

0.5

-9.6 -13.6

-14.4

-0.3 19.5

-3.2

2.0

7.5 11.8

-2.2

1.2 -15.4

-5.2

0.5

-4.8 -31.0

-12.8

11.1 11.9

1.8

2.0

-8.3

2.0

-9.6

1.2

8.8

-9.1

0.7

-4.8 10.1

-15.7

18.2 7.2

-0.7

3.2

16.2 5.8

-2.6

31.3 17.6

2.7

5.1

35.1 27.2

9.4

9.1 -2.3

-1.9

1.9

7.5

-1.7

-5.5

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY

QoQ Exp. (%)

3.8

-9.1

8.5

-20.2

-9.0

0.7

21.1

-24.1

16.8

-4.7

-25.6

3.8

10.2

19.4

18.9

11.5

35.7

37.8

158.5

42.8

11.3

78.4

-49.2

-3.9

-0.1

33.2

9.3

75.7

-55.4

-50.2

61.7

26.1

34.7

-11.7

-8.6

25.9

27.0

-1.0

-10.8

-0.5

-4.6

-8.9

-0.1

-53.4

-12.5

103.1

34.5

-11.1

5.1

4.5

-1.7

-30.8

-7.9

-8.5

-0.9

13.8

-3.4

-32.8

101.5

34.2

1128.5 30.3

-11.2

-11.3

1.9

-7.4

115.2

-21.7

-19.6

14.0

28.6

18.2

-44.5

-48.9

-34.0

-10.2

24.4

4.5

-25.5

-20.5

3.6

19.4

-6.9

-9.6

15.9

-14.8

-17.4

38.3

6.1

23.3

79.0

-39.3

-18.7

18.3

-40.5

-17.7

15.3

58.1

27.7

41.7

-26.1

-15.2

302.2

-39.8

251.9

-27.9

-2.8

-30.2

3.5

-10.6

-35.9

25.8 1070.0

49.6

408.8

-43.7

-83.1

124.9

-66.7

-82.6

46.6

-33.7

-1.1

26.8

27.2

3.2

Loss

-0.1

40.3

-5.8

Loss

-33.1

25.0

-20.8

-12.5

-36.6

-12.6

-94.0

-87.1

-22.3

11.9

-24.2

29.5

34.9

0.3

48.7

40.7

13.6

7.1

3.6

-0.6

Company

Metals

Coal India

Hindalco

Hindustan Zinc

Jindal Stainless

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

SAIL

Tata Steel

Vedanta

Oil & Gas

Oil Ex OMCs

Aegis Logistics

BPCL

Castrol India

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat State Petronet

HPCL

Indraprastha Gas

IOC

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

Petronet LNG

Reliance Inds.

Real Estate

Anant Raj

Brigade Enterpr.

DLF

Godrej Properties

Kolte Patil Dev.

Lodha Developers

Mahindra Lifespace

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

Prestige Estates

SignatureGlobal

Sobha

Sunteck Realty

Retail

Aditya Birla Fashion

Avenue Supermarts

Barbeque Nation

Bata India

Campus Activewear

Devyani Intl.

Go Fashion

Jubilant Foodworks

Kalyan Jewellers

Metro Brands

Jun-25

3,007.9

358.4

642.3

77.7

102.1

122.9

431.5

38.1

67.4

257.5

531.8

378.2

7,741.2

3,578.7

17.2

1,125.1

15.0

347.7

38.7

2.4

1,107.7

39.1

1,929.7

19.8

173.6

50.1

320.0

118.8

2,436.3

147.8

5.9

12.8

27.2

4.3

0.8

34.9

0.3

9.9

9.5

23.1

8.7

8.5

1.9

621.3

18.3

163.6

3.0

9.4

3.4

13.6

2.2

17.0

72.7

6.3

Jun-25

282.8

87.4

40.0

22.3

7.1

14.9

21.8

10.5

19.7

5.7

21.3

31.9

470.8

309.0

1.3

61.2

2.4

18.9

3.3

1.4

43.7

3.6

56.9

3.2

-2.7

8.1

80.2

8.5

180.7

33.9

1.3

1.5

7.6

6.0

-0.2

6.8

0.5

4.2

2.4

2.9

0.3

0.1

0.3

28.5

-2.3

7.7

-0.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.7

2.6

1.0

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

17.1

2.8

8.0

-1.6

14.3

17.2 -4.3

4.9

6.5

-12.5 -5.8

-16.1

5.5

12.6 12.8

0.4

7.8

8.1

9.2

-0.7

18.3

30.1 32.6

1.6

10.9

5.9

7.0

0.0

165.2 24.6 10.8

5.3

47.8

19.8 16.4

-0.2

8.9

12.6 13.5

0.0

2.8

17.2 -23.5

4.7

6.6

6.7

9.0

-1.4

107.9

8.5

1.3

-0.6

36.5

1.8 -0.1

0.1

35.5

13.4 3.5

2.7

28.9

12.1 1.2

-3.6

7.0

7.4 -1.2

-7.1

2,013.7 5.4

0.1

-0.3

36.9

55.3 8.2

-1.5

17.1

2.2 -10.3

-5.8

303.5

8.2

0.3

0.9

32.6

11.1 1.6

-0.9

422.8

7.5

3.3

1.5

98.4

7.6

0.7

-0.6

28.7

16.4 -3.9

-1.9

37.3

9.1

0.6

-0.8

33.3

21.8 2.8

-0.6

634.4

1.3 -1.6

-1.9

133.5

2.7 -0.2

0.2

13.9

7.5

1.9

1.3

221.3

0.8 -1.6

0.4

767.7 20.1 2.5

0.9

494.6 28.5 3.3

1.8

22.6

18.4 -1.1

-3.5

80.6

9.1

4.3

0.3

59.6

6.6 -0.5

-2.1

110.2

4.9

0.1

0.2

802.9

3.3 -0.7

-4.5

5.1

65.0 4.9

-1.0

1.4

13.3 -0.9

-0.6

8.3

29.3 -35.2

-16.6

51.4

78.6 61.3

6.0

425.7 -4.2 -3.0

-6.1

99.3

-1.4 -9.6

-6.2

31.3

54.9 -17.4

-3.3

180.4

4.3

5.5

-2.0

739.2 16.0 -6.8

0.2

51.7

3.9 -6.2

-1.7

13.6

-1.6 -19.0

-10.8

5.3

5.7 -10.2

-2.3

70.4

48.9 41.2

13.8

3.5

8.8 11.1

-1.8

11.1

10.0 0.2

-1.3

71.7

70.4 22.9

5.3

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

1.1

70.9 16.8

43.3

0.8

28.9 468.3

-34.8

1.0

0.6 -11.2

2.8

0.7

20.6 -4.1

-3.4

1.1

-9.1

6.2

-4.5

1.8

68.8 44.5

34.4

1.7

17.0 -1.9

10.8

18.3

46.8 19.1

14.7

8.4

37.2 27.6

16.6

1.3

27.5 85.2

14.8

1.2

7.0 -27.2

-2.5

0.9

6.9

7.6

-0.1

2.9

10.6 -7.5

-7.5

0.7

10.3 3.5

0.9

1.5

10.7 -7.7

-5.0

0.3

37.8 -35.4

-10.4

0.4

-4.0 10.1

-24.4

441.1

4.3

-1.3

-1.9

6.5

50.9 12.0

-4.3

2.3

-12.9 -23.8

-27.4

60.3

4.5

-7.1

-4.7

4.0

-6.2 -23.4

-25.5

100.2

6.0

2.4

1.2

16.5

2.7

3.3

-2.0

4.6

1.4

-2.8

2.1

7.0

13.6 0.0

-0.6

6.1

34.4 4.7

-0.4

169.0

1.0

-0.2

-0.9

19.4

23.7 3.6

2.3

2.1

7.4

-0.9

2.0

43.1

-0.7 -7.5

-6.2

391.0 28.5 2.1

1.4

278.4 41.3 3.1

1.8

11.6

32.5 -0.6

-3.7

43.5

-3.4

0.6

2.5

11.4

0.0

1.3

-3.5

46.1

9.7

-1.0

1.0

266.8 -1.4

0.9

-6.3

4.6

68.5 5.1

2.6

1.1

13.9 -6.6

-2.7

1.8

35.0 -27.8

10.5

27.9

96.7 131.5

23.8

102.8 -17.4 -8.6

-16.6

81.2

-7.2 -12.0

-12.3

6.0

61.9 -13.6

-1.3

41.4

15.4 27.5

25.2

123.1 11.2 -19.3

-2.7

3.7

23.3 -10.1

-3.2

1.8

-13.8 -38.8

-22.0

1.1

-15.6 -19.4

-11.9

7.8

54.6 83.6

2.4

0.3

17.8 34.5

3.8

2.3

22.1 -0.5

-0.9

1.2

-35.0 59.7

-57.1

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

Jun-25

YoY

QoQ

0.7

96.3

11.9

-0.2

Loss

0.5

10.2

-13.0

-0.1

Loss

0.0

1.0

104.1

67.6

-0.2

Loss

10.9

52.6

25.3

4.2

23.5

20.8

0.3

176.8

0.7

12.4

-30.5

0.0

-64.8

-24.8

2.0

26.2

-8.0

0.5

7.6

-15.6

0.9

44.7

12.7

0.3

29.1

-34.0

0.3

13.1

-15.2

316.0

6.9

0.6

3.9

73.4

36.6

1.6

8.4

-16.1

38.4

-9.7

-10.8

3.8

38.3

16.1

69.2

8.7

1.7

12.5

10.5

11.2

3.2

0.7

1.5

4.4

9.2

-1.1

4.2

38.7

7.4

128.2

5.9

4.3

11.4

34.0

-2.2

1.8

15.3

3.2

33.3

10.9

-6.7

16.1

218.3

59.5

103.3

13.9

3.9

103.0

3.0

16.7

23.1

3.8

2.1

-14.9

-54.5

-66.1

Loss

107.4

13.8

-7.3

1.5

10464.5 6.8

1.1

21.0

0.9

1.1

117.7

-44.8

7.4

42.4

153.7

47.7

13.8

-4.5

34.7

0.4

-19.1

3.2

7.2

-44.3

10.6

29.5

8.7

42.3

5.3

-34.5

2.4

22.8

-19.1

0.8

-32.6

-54.8

0.7

-11.6

-17.2

5.1

62.4

66.3

0.2

24.0

42.4

1.0

55.8

-14.5

0.3

-90.1

-35.9

Company

P N Gadgil Jewellers

Raymond Lifestyle

Relaxo Footwear

Restaurant Brands

Sapphire Foods

Senco Gold

Shoppers Stop

Titan Company

Trent

V-Mart Retail

Vedant Fashions

Westlife Foodworld

Staffing

Quess Corp

SIS

Team Lease Serv.

Updater Services

Technology

Coforge

Cyient

HCL Technologies

Hexaware Tech.

Infosys

LTIMindtree

L&T Technology

MphasiS

Persistent Systems

TCS

Tech Mahindra

Zensar Tech

Wipro

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Hexacom

Indus Towers

Tata Comm

Vodafone Idea

Utilities

ACME Solar

Indian Energy Exch.

Inox Wind

JSW Energy

NTPC

Power Grid Corp.

Suzlon Energy

Tata Power

Others

APL Apollo Tubes

Astral

Cello World

Coromandel International

Dreamfolks Services

EPL

Eternal

Var. over

Exp. (%)

53.7

12.5

Loss

51.1

Loss

11.9

18.7

30.8

3.2

-82.8

-7.9

9.3

-10.5

-17.8

-15.5

1.2

2.0

-15.9

-10.1

6.9

4.2

4.3

3.4

-2.8

-0.9

2.9

-1.9

7.8

3.7

61.0

-2.5

-5.3

1.4

-29.5

Loss

2.0

27.5

5.5

26.3

30.9

8.4

-5.8

-32.3

-2.1

-5.1

-5.0

-38.8

-4.3

0.2

10.3

-3.7

-90.9

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

Sales (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

11.2 22.5

1.2

14.5 0.3

0.8

12.3 4.8

2.1

31.7 -15.8

0.1

15.3 7.2

-0.5

4.7 -7.5

-4.0

0.6 -9.7

-4.2

17.8 -16.6

1.0

22.1 -14.5

-2.3

27.7 0.3

1.1

-4.0 -19.3

-2.9

13.8 3.7

0.6

-1.0 -13.8

-7.7

54.0 12.5

1.1

10.0 -7.9

0.8

1.6 -40.8

2.1

EBITDA (INR b)

Gr (%)

Var. over

Jun-25 YoY QoQ Exp. (%)

2.7

19.3 83.9

4.0

1.1

22.4 2.9

5.7

1.3

11.6 2.1

0.4

5.8

28.1 -32.8

-4.5

2.8

11.4 7.3

-7.6

57.0

-1.3 -18.0

-7.2

1.9

9.3 35.0

23.9

1.4

22.1 -31.2

2.1

0.3

70.9 -16.9

-6.6

0.7

0.4

-32.1 -27.9

10.3

21.0

10.5 6.9

0.4

3.2

-17.7 -23.4

-19.3

-9.5

Loss Loss

Loss

1.9

11.7 -8.8

2.1

13.0

13.7 -59.7

10.9

PAT (INR b)

Gr (%)

YoY

QoQ

18.8

126.8

38.5

-2.0

34.5

-15.0

19.3

-43.5

11.8

1.8

-20.7

-29.7

16.8

51.7

93.5

-54.7

144.2

-21.2

-80.5

-80.1

-6.5

4.1

-26.0

-31.2

Loss

19.9

-13.2

-91.9

Company

Godrej Agrovet

Gravita India

Indiamart Inter.

Indian Hotels

Info Edge

Interglobe Aviation

Kajaria Ceramics

Lemon Tree Hotel

MTAR Tech

One 97 Comm.

Prince Pipes

SBI Cards

Supreme Inds.

Swiggy

Time Technoplast

UPL

Jun-25

26.1

10.4

3.7

20.4

7.4

205.0

11.0

3.2

1.6

19.2

5.8

16.8

26.1

49.6

13.5

92.2

Jun-25

1.6

0.9

1.5

3.0

2.6

21.6

1.1

0.4

0.1

1.4

0.0

5.6

2.0

-12.0

1.0

Var. over

Exp. (%)

3.3

3.6

27.2

-5.4

-5.9

-9.4

33.4

30.3

-29.1

5591.8

-27.3

-3.2

-23.5

Loss

2.2

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

NOTES

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following

30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to

professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these

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or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered

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1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).

MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.

Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company

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MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research

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MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.

4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.

MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.

5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).

6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.

7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.

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9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.

10. MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

********************************************************************************************************************************

August 2025

India Strategy | Review 1QFY26

The associates of MOFSL may have:

financial interest in the subject company

actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the

public appearance.

received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

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there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

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