Motilal Oswal Financial Services

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Clean Energy Shift

Mr. Sumant Sinha

Chairman & CEO, ReNew

Trillion-dollar opportunity to power growth and returns

We hosted Mr. Sumant Sinha, Chairman and CEO of ReNew, as a part of the CEO Track at

AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

Multiple tailwinds driving renewable energy growth

Mr. Sinha believes governments around the world are increasingly pushing for clean

energy adoption, creating strong momentum for renewable energy (RE). A

significant milestone was set at COP28 in 2023 (held in Dubai), where the target was

set to

triple installed capacity

for RE. However, the primary driver now is economics

rather than just government policy. As technology evolves, costs are expected to

continue declining, making RE increasingly relevant and essential. He also

emphasized that the actual impact of climate change is progressing much faster than

anticipated, though often under-recognized. This urgency is prompting governments

worldwide to accelerate their push for RE adoption.

India’s RE capacity and growth outlook

RE's share in the energy mix is projected to keep growing substantially. India, in

particular, is at a crucial point where RE is the key driver of capacity growth. While

coal remains important to manage constraints where RE growth lags, its role is

gradually being limited. India needs an annual RE capacity addition of 60-70 GW to

meet its energy requirements and goals. In FY24, about 18-19 GW of renewable

energy capacity was added. This rose sharply to around 30 GW in FY25 and will

potentially rise to 40 GW in FY26. As RE capacity installations continue at a brisk

pace, demand for renewable energy is not expected to be a constraint. Under the

Viksit Bharat Plan 2047, India aims to add a monumental 2,000 GW of renewable

energy capacity. While achieving the interim milestone of 500 GW is significant, it is

not the final goal. India’s net zero plan targets no new fossil fuel additions by 2070,

underscoring the long-term commitment to clean energy.

Regulatory tailwinds and technology progress to unlock new demand

avenues

The government’s drive to indigenize module production is unlikely to stop at solar

cells and could, eventually, encompass wafers, ingots, polysilicon, batteries, and

inverters over the coming years. This is notable as several domestic manufacturing

players have already started making investments in allied sectors/components such

as ingots/wafers/batteries. Despite the easier and cheaper option of importing from

China, India wants to avoid worsening its already large trade deficit with China

September 2025

(around USD100 billion). Over time, as India establishes its manufacturing

ecosystem, costs will decline, enabling self-sufficiency and even potential exports.

The government’s vision is to transition to green hydrogen, which is currently about

twice as expensive as grey hydrogen but is expected to become more affordable

within the next 4-5 years. Green hydrogen will be a major driver for renewable

energy expansion. According to current estimates, every 1 mmtpa of green hydrogen

production requires ~20 GW of RE capacity, which means the government’s target of

producing 5 mmtpa of GH domestically may involve additional RE capacity

installation of 100 GW.

ReNew’s strategic focus areas

Mr. Sinha emphasized that ReNew is focused on building two long-term competitive

advantages: scale, which enables the lowest cost of production, and backward

integration, which is critical for survival given policymakers’ emphasis on creating an

end-to-end value chain. ReNew currently has an 11.1GW commissioned capacity and

has pioneered Round-the-Clock (RTC) renewable energy projects that deliver base-

load power by combining solar, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). On

the manufacturing front, the company operates 6.5 GW of solar module capacity

with 2.5 GW of operational cell capacity and plans to add another 4 GW of cell

capacity in the near term. Additionally, ReNew has secured 30 GW of connectivity

until 2030 and beyond, ensuring visibility for sustained long-term growth.

Market dynamics shifting towards complex tenders

There is an overcapacity in solar module manufacturing (around 100 GW ALMM-

compliant capacity). However, cell manufacturing capacity is still insufficient, and

smaller players may struggle to keep up. In the current solar market, vanilla bids for

daytime power are no longer common. Instead, the focus has shifted to more

complex tenders involving solar plus battery storage, RTC, and hybrid power

projects. ReNew is uniquely positioned here, being the only company with

operational RTC projects and the largest wind capacity in India. In the last two years,

70-80 GW of power purchase agreements (PPAs) have been signed, and it is

expected that majority of the pending bids will be finalized as DISCOMs make

decisions.

September 2025

Story in charts

Capacity addition (GW)

Thermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Other RE

Total capacity addition

FY18

5.4

0.0

0.8

9.4

1.8

0.6

18.0

FY19

3.4

0.0

0.1

6.5

1.6

0.5

12.1

FY20

4.3

0.0

0.3

6.4

2.1

0.9

14.0

FY21

4.1

0.0

0.5

5.5

1.6

0.4

12.0

FY22

1.4

0.0

0.5

13.9

1.1

0.4

17.3

FY23

1.2

0.0

0.1

12.8

2.3

0.2

16.6

FY24

FY25

5.9

3.7

1.4

0.0

0.1

0.8

15.0

23.8

3.3

4.2

0.2

0.7

25.9

33.3

Source: CEA, NPP, MOFSL

All-India installed capacity (GW)

Particulars

Thermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Other RE

Total capacity (GW)

FY18

222.9

6.8

45.3

21.7

34.0

13.3

344.0

FY19

226.3

6.8

45.4

28.2

35.6

13.8

356.1

FY20

230.6

6.8

45.7

34.6

37.7

14.7

370.1

FY21

234.7

6.8

46.2

40.1

39.2

15.1

382.2

FY22

236.1

6.8

46.7

54.0

40.4

15.5

399.5

FY23

237.3

6.8

46.9

66.8

42.6

15.7

416.1

FY24

243.2

8.2

46.9

81.8

45.9

15.9

442.0

FY25

246.9

8.2

47.7

105.6

50.0

16.7

475.2

Source: CEA, NPP, MOFSL

India’s peak demand continues to climb (in GW)

ReNew’s execution over the years (in GW)

Committed

Assets Sold

Constructed

Commissioned

10.7

366

8.0

5.6

0.3

4.3

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY32

FY21

7.6

0.1

3.1

FY22

5.7

FY23

0.4

3.9

FY24

9.5

0.5

7.3

FY25

0.3

190

203

216

243

250

FY21

FY22

Source: ReNew, MOFSL

ReNew’s 11.2GW commissioned capacity break-up

ReNew’s 7.3GW committed capacity break-up

Hydro

0.1GW

Wind

5GW

Wind

2.9GW

Solar

4.4GW

Solar

6.1GW

Source: ReNew, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Witnessing Healthy Demand

Ms. Shveta Arya

MD, Cummins India

Impact of geopolitics on manufacturing

Manufacturing growth in India

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

FY26E FY27E

120.9 141.5

Sales

23.8

27.9

EBITDA

23.1

27.3

Adj. PAT

83.5

98.4

EPS (INR)

16.4

17.8

EPS Gr. (%)

287.3 325.8

BV/Sh. (INR)

Ratios

30.9

32.1

RoE (%)

29.4

30.6

RoCE (%)

58.8

58.7

Payout (%)

Valuations

46.5

39.4

P/E (x)

13.5

11.9

P/BV (x)

44.0

37.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

1.2

1.4

Div Yield (%)

We hosted Ms. Shveta Arya, MD of Cummins India, as part of our CEO track session at AGIC

FY28E

163.0

32.4

31.7

114.3

16.3

370.9

32.8

31.3

58.5

33.9

10.5

32.1

1.6

2025. Here are the key takeaways of the session:

Witnessing positive demand triggers amid volatile global situation

The overall manufacturing space in India is witnessing positive demand triggers from

both urban and rural regions, aided by a stable government at the center, policy

initiatives such as proposed GST rate changes, focus on infrastructure development,

and policies related to the indigenization of manufacturing. All these factors are

driving improvement in overall manufacturing growth in India. Segments such as

electronics, renewables, auto components, pharma, hospitality, etc. are growing

quite well.

US tariff can impact supply chains and global demand in near term

The current US tariff situation is resulting in potentially higher cost of exports from

India and is making China and Vietnam more competitive in terms of costing for

exports. It is still uncertain how the situation will pan out in the future. However,

India has established itself as a good hub for meeting the demand for exports.

Players like Cummins have already established themselves as preferred vendors for

the global supply chain for Cummins Inc. The company can continue to capitalize on

its products for other markets beyond the US. Along with this, its widespread

network of global vendors will also help the company to adjust supply chains if

required.

Domestic powergen market is growing after initial demand pressures from

norm transition

Domestic powergen segment is back to pre-emission norm levels in terms of

volumes as demand has come back in most of the nodes. Demand has improved

from segments such as manufacturing, commercial real estate, quick commerce,

hospital, data centers, etc., and the company expects steady growth in demand

across these segments.

Cummins will capitalize on BESS demand with its newly launched product

The company had already launched a product on BESS and expects to capitalize on

the demand coming from individual establishments in storing the surplus renewable

power. Though key components of BESS are currently not made in India, the

company designs and assembles them here and has demand coming in from various

segments of the industry.

September 2025

With large part of components already indigenized, Cummins is better

placed than others

The company has already indigenized a large part of components that go into its

powergen products, except for a few critical electronic components. Thus, it is better

than other players in the industry. Also, the company is not much impacted in terms

of higher costs due to BIS QCO norms, except for certain logistical delays.

Story in charts

We expect 15% CAGR in the Powergen segment over FY25-

FY28E

Powergen (INR b)

52.2

45.0

33.8

25.6

16.0 14.4

19.7

11.3

38.4

16.7

10.5

13.0

20.2

58.5

We expect 18% CAGR in the Industrial segment over FY25-

FY28E

Industrials (INR b)

27.2

23.8

9.5

9.8

7.7

9.0

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E2027E2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

We expect 19% CAGR in the Distribution segment over FY25-

FY28E

Distribution (INR b)

38.0

31.7

23.5

13.5 13.4 12.0

14.8

18.7

26.9

45.6

Exports to clock 17% CAGR on a low base over FY25-FY28E

Exports (INR b)

24.1

20.5

16.5

12.9

11.5

16.1

16.8 17.7

20.8

28.1

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Margin to be stable post FY25

Gross margin

EBITDA margin

PAT to clock 17% CAGR over FY25-28E

PAT (INR b)

50.4

growth (%)

36.8

16.6 16.4 17.8 16.3

8.3

-3.2

-10.2

7.3

7.1

6.4

8.3

12.5 17.0 19.9 23.1 27.3 31.7

36.1

34.7 36.2

35.6 36.2 35.1 35.1 35.0

33.1

32.5

19.7 20.0 19.7

19.7

19.8

30.5

15.3

11.4

16.0

13.4 14.4

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

PayTM

Mr. Vijay Shekhar Sharma

Founder & CEO, PayTM

Building scale with sustainability

Tech, product innovation to remain a differentiator

We hosted Mr. Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Founder & CEO of Paytm, as a part of CEO Track at

AGIC 2025. Here are our key insights from the session:

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

FY25 FY26E FY27E

Revenue from Op

69.0 83.8 101.6

Contribution Profit 36.8 46.7 58.6

Adjusted EBITDA

(6.9) 2.7 8.9

EBITDA

(15.1) 0.5 7.4

PAT

(6.7) 3.9 9.9

EPS (INR)

(10.4) 6.1 14.7

EPS Gr. (%)

NM NM 143.2

Ratios

Contribution

Margin %

53.3 55.8 57.7

Adjusted EBITDA

Margin (%)

(21.9) 0.7 7.3

EBITDA Margin (%) (10.0) 3.2 8.8

RoE (%)

(4.7) 2.6 6.4

RoA (%)

(3.4) 1.7 3.9

Valuations

P/E(X)

NA 202.9 83.4

P/BV (X)

5.2 5.3 5.2

P/Sales (X)

11.4 9.5 8.1

Profitability built on 0-MDR foundation

Paytm reiterated that its business model has been structurally designed on a 0-MDR

framework, and profitability has been demonstrated even without transaction fees

on UPI. Management emphasized that the model is viable, scalable, and risk-free.

The 1QFY26 PAT of INR1.23b underscores that Paytm has entered a sustainable

profitability phase, aided by recurring subscription revenues, AI-led efficiency, and

disciplined cost controls. Retail payments now account for over 50% of transaction

share, reducing cash dependency and driving long-term monetization levers.

Payments and Devices: A recurring revenue stream; innovation remains key

Merchant payments remain the core strength, with device subscriptions (Soundbox,

POS) forming a recurring revenue stream similar to telecom ARPUs. Paytm

highlighted that the Soundbox is not just a payment device but a platform, with a

long-term target of 100m deployments. Interestingly, price sensitivity has not been a

barrier, as merchants value reliability and value-added bundled services over lower

pricing. The company is aiming to address UPI market share challenges and make a

comeback in coming quarters (just as Chrome did for internet browsing).

Financial services: Partner-led and regulator-aligned

Paytm continues to focus on scaling financial services business through partnerships,

adding new lending partners recently. The merchant loan trajectory remains strong,

while Paytm Postpaid and Wallet will be relaunched in line with regulatory approval.

Management stressed that fintech’s role is not to alter credit-to-GDP ratios but to

expand credit accessibility. Financial services will remain a critical revenue driver

alongside payments, with both businesses working in tandem as acquisition funnels

and monetization levers.

AI-first approach: Driving efficiency and customer stickiness

AI is being embedded across Paytm’s ecosystem, from predicting merchant churn

and delinquency to improving collection bonuses and customer engagement.

September 2025

Marketing spends and operating costs are being sharply reduced as AI improves

targeting and interventions. Management underscored that AI is not only a cost

lever but it will also enable new product innovations that Paytm will showcase in the

near future, reinforcing its positioning as a regulated, AI-first technology company.

Looking ahead: Building a universal fintech platform

Paytm’s medium-term strategy rests on four pillars: (1) defending leadership in

merchant payments through deeper device penetration, (2) scaling financial services

in partnership with lenders, (3) leveraging AI for efficiency and innovation, and (4)

exploring selective international expansion. Management reiterated its confidence

that the company is now positioned not just as a payments player, but as a

universal

fintech platform,

trusted and AI-first, with strong focus on sustainable profitability.

Story in charts

Paytm’s merchant base has grown to 45m

No. of Merchants (mn)

29.8 28.3

26.1 25.5 25.8 27.1 25.2

Growth YoY (%)

Devices deployed have grown 19% YoY to 13m

Devices Deployed (POS + Soundbox)

Penetration of devices (%)

21.2

15.7

12.0 9.4

8.4 9.2

Source: MOFSL, Company

Average MTU has recovered to 74m

GMV/MTU (INR)

100

Average MTU (m)

GMV has risen to INR5.4t (27% YoY)

GMV (INRb)

19.0

16.0 15.7 14.7

Net payment margin as a % of GMV

18.2

9.0

10.4

9.7

11.3

9.8

Source: MOFSL, Company

September 2025

P2M value (INR t) continues to grow at a healthy pace for the industry

P2M value (INR t)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate GMV to clock 22% CAGR over FY25-28E

GMV (INRt)

111.2

Growth - YoY (%)

55.2

32.3 33.0

38.4

22.0

3.3

2.3

3.0

4.0

8.5

13.2

18.3

18.9

23.1

28.2

34.4

22.2

22.0

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate ~22% revenue CAGR over FY25-28E

Revenue from Operations (INRb)

77.5

60.6

Growth - YoY (%)

Revenue from operations

to see 22% CAGR over

FY25-28E

32.3

24.9

1.5

-14.6

32.8

28.0

49.7

79.9

99.8

-30.9

69.0

21.4

21.3

22.4

83.8

101.6

124.3

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

Estimate 35% CAGR in value of loans disbursed over FY25-28E

Value of loans disbursed (INRb)

440.9

364.2

Growth - YoY (%)

Loans disbursement

expected to clock ~35%

CAGR over FY25-28E

14.1

FY21

76.2

FY22

353.8

FY23

48.0

-58.7

36.5

35.2

34.0

523.7

FY24

216.0

FY25

294.9

FY26E

398.7

FY27E

534.2

FY28E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Mix of financial revenue is estimated to increase to 27% by FY28E

Revenue from Financial Services (INR b)

19.3

3.9

4.6

8.8

20.1

24.7

Mix (%)

27.5

26.7

27.5

1.3

FY20

1.3

FY21

4.4

FY22

15.4

FY23

20.0

FY24

17.0

FY25E

23.0

FY26E

27.1

FY27E

34.2

FY28E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Adj EBITDA to turn positive in FY26E

after achieving profitability in 1QFY26

Adjusted EBITDA (INRb)

-2.2

-30.5

6.1

4.4

-16.5

-59.0

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

5.6

2.7

8.9

15.4

5.6

Margin (%)

-10.0

3.2

8.8

12.4

-15.2

-1.8

-6.9

-75.2

-130.3

FY19

FY20

Source: Company, MOFSL

ESOP expenses are expected to reduce sharply over coming years

ESOP Expenses (INR b)

With CEO Mr. Vijay

Shekhar Sharma

voluntarily foregoing his

ESOPs, future ESOP

expenses are expected to

reduce sharply

14.6

8.1

14.7

8.2

2.2

1.5

FY27E

0.8

FY28E

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26E

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

Estimate Paytm to report positive EBITDA in FY27E

EBITDA (INRb)

-9.1

Margin (%)

0.7

0.5

7.3

7.4

-9.1

11.7

14.6

-20.4

-80.3

-135.1

-43.7

FY19

-26.3

-63.1

-17.7

-46.8

-16.3

-23.3

-21.9

-15.1

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Incentive payout by government has declined sharply for FY25

Incentive Payout (INR b)

Incentive as a % of P2M value (in bp)

8.7

7.2

7.1

P2M transactions value (INR t)

2.1

13.9

FY22

16.0

22.1

FY23

30.7

36.3

FY24

51.5

15.0

FY25

Source: Company, MOFSL

71.9

Estimate earnings to turn profitable in FY26E with PAT rising to INR15.8b in FY28E

PAT (INRb)

Estimate Paytm to

achieve profitability in

FY26E

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September 2025

CEO Track

Zepto

Mr. Aadit Palicha

Co-founder & CEO

Scaling India’s quick commerce flywheel

We hosted Mr. Aadit Palicha, Co-Founder and CEO of Zepto, as a part of the CEO Track at

AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

Cost discipline key to scaling from here

Zepto believes cost efficiency will be key to scaling the company over the next few

years. Management expects profitability to expand notably despite fast growth. On

penetration, the company mentioned that majority of the GMV still comes from

metro cities, which themselves remain significantly underpenetrated. While AOV

remains stable, the company’s focus is on maximizing order volumes and take rates

while reducing cost per order through density. Shorter delivery distances and high-

rise concentration are proving critical in lowering unit costs, setting the foundation

for long-term profitability.

Unit economics on an improving trajectory

Mature stores are already profitable and growing well above average, while newer

cities are achieving profitability faster than before. Further, delivery costs in high-

density clusters are below industry benchmarks, highlighting the structural cost

advantage from scale.

Execution advantage in quick commerce

The business continues to demonstrate an execution edge over smaller peers. While

new entrants have struggled to scale meaningfully, Zepto has consolidated its

position as one of the largest players in this space. Management believes that long-

term economics will be dictated by density, efficiency, and capital discipline.

Roadmap: Volume leadership through density

Zepto’s model is designed around volume, take rate, and cost per order rather than

pushing AOV. Its strategic roadmap focuses on doubling down on density-led

economics, extending selectively into adjacent categories like electronics and

apparel, and avoiding high-burn verticals such as fashion. While competitive

dynamics remain fluid, Zepto views scale efficiency (not just expansion) as the

winning formula in India’s quick commerce industry.

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

AU Small Finance Bank

Mr. Sanjay Agarwal

MD & CEO, AU Small Finance Bank

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

FY25 FY26E FY27E

NII

80.1

88.3 112.5

PPoP

45.8

51.5

66.0

PAT

21.1

26.5

36.1

NIM (%)

6.0

5.1

5.3

EPS (INR)

29.8

35.5

48.3

EPS Gr. (%)

33.9

19.2

35.9

BV/Sh. (INR)

229

263

309

ABV/Sh. (INR)

223

255

300

Ratios

RoA (%)

1.6

1.5

1.7

RoE (%)

14.3

14.4

16.9

Valuations

P/E(X)

24.2

20.3

14.9

P/BV (X)

3.1

2.7

2.3

P/ABV (X)

3.2

2.8

2.4

Big opportunity, bigger responsibility

Pioneering sustainable scale for tomorrow

We hosted Mr. Sanjay Agarwal, Founder, Managing Director and CEO of AU Small Finance

Bank, as a part of CEO Track at AGIC 2025. Here are our key insights from the session:

Entering the next orbit of growth with universal bank transition

AU has become the first SFB to receive the Reserve Bank of India’s in-principle

approval to transition into a universal bank. This milestone is not merely a change in

license but a transformation in identity, credibility and opportunity. It signals AU’s

arrival as a full-spectrum banking institution with the ability to tap deeper pools of

deposits, expand product breadth, and structurally lower its cost of funds. AU

currently has a balance sheet of over INR1.6t, deposits of INR1.28t and a customer

base of 11.6m as of Jun’25. AU is now positioned to scale more aggressively while

de-risking its franchise. The coming years will see AU leverage this transition to

strengthen brand acceptance, deepen relationships in urban India, and accelerate

the pace of franchise building.

Liability franchise – pivoting from rate to relationship

Deposits grew 31% YoY in 1QFY26, with CASA steady at ~29%. While past growth

was led by competitive pricing, the universal bank tag allows AU to pivot toward

relationship-led liabilities, with stronger traction from corporates, MSMEs and mass-

affluent customers. A planned addition of 70-80 urban, liability-focused branches

and an expanded transaction banking suite are expected to strengthen deposit

stickiness and lower funding costs, driving a more sustainable liability franchise over

the next 12-18 months.

Secured lending remains the core growth engine

Secured loans (~90% of AUM) remain the anchor of AU’s strategy. The wheels

business (32% of AUM) is expected to sustain double-digit growth, supported by

deeper reach in South/East and a broad product mix. Mortgages and MBL (33% of

AUM) are positioned for ~20% growth once southern stress normalizes by end-FY26.

The commercial banking book (~21% of AUM) is expanding at ~30% YoY, aided by

transaction-led solutions. Gold loans, though just 2% of AUM, are emerging as a

scalable, high-RoA business. This secured-led approach provides compounding

growth with controlled risk, ensuring resilience through cycles.

September 2025

Bank to adapt calibrated approach in unsecured lending

AU continues to rationalize its unsecured portfolio (down 23% YoY), prioritizing

stability over near-term growth. The MFI book (~6% of AUM) is being rebuilt under

tighter underwriting, with ~97% of 1Q disbursements covered by CGFMU

guarantees, which should cap credit costs. In credit cards, corrective actions

including sharper analytics and limit adjustments are underway, with stress expected

to peak in 1HFY26 before stabilizing. This prudent approach ensures that unsecured

will remain a tactical lever, rather than a growth driver, until market conditions

normalize. The bank aims to operate at 80-90bp credit cost over the medium term.

Looking ahead: Universal banking remains a key value compounder

Over the next three years, AU’s growth playbook rests on four pillars: a more

granular and sticky liability base, secured-led loan compounding across wheels,

mortgages and commercial banking, calibrated participation in unsecured until

stress abates, and steady RoA expansion toward 1.8% by FY27. As the first SFB to

make the leap, AU is uniquely positioned to emerge not just as a universal bank in

form, but as a universal franchise in substance — profitable, resilient and built for

scale.

Story in charts

In past seven years, loan CAGR is 33% and deposit CAGR is 48%

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

Asset quality profile over the years

Source: Company, MOFSL

Credit cost on avg total asset trend over the years

Source: Company, MOFSL

Bank has delivered average RoA of 1.6% over the years

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

Estimate loan book to grow at 24% CAGR over next FY25-28E

Advances (INRb)

Growth YoY (%)

46%

We estimate loan CAGR of

24% over FY25-28E, aided

by MFI recovery and

continued traction in key

business segments, along

with universal banking

transition

28%

33%

27%

25%

23%

1,071

25%

346

461

584

732

1,318

1,643

2,045

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate deposits to reach ~INR2.3t by FY28E

Deposits (INRb)

46%

Growth YoY (%)

43%

Estimate 23% deposit CAGR

over the next three years;

resulting in a stable CD ratio

of 87%

38%

32%

26%

22%

1,243

24%

360

526

694

872

1,520

1,885

2,339

Source: Company, MOFSL

NIMs likely to be maintained at 5.5-5.7% over FY26-27E

NIM (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

Cost of fund expected to decline to 6.8% by FY27E

CoF (%)

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

Estimate C/I ratio to improve to 55% by FY28E

C/I ratio (%)

43.8

57.1

63.0

65.1

56.5

56.9

55.9

55.2

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate AU’s GNPA/NNPA ratios to remain stable at 2.2%/0.7% in FY28E

Credit cost are likely to

decline post the blip of

FY25-26E

GNPA (%)

75.0

52.5

49.7

NNPA (%)

PCR (%)

66.0

67.9

70.2

64.3

66.4

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate credit cost (calc) to sustain at ~1% by FY28E

Credit Cost (calc)

4.2

3.6

2.5

Slippage ratio

4.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

Source: Company, MOFSL

Estimate RoA/RoE to recover to 1.8%/18.7% by FY28E

ROE (%)

2.5

ROA (%)

RoA to improve to 1.7-1.8%

amid decline in credit cost

and stable NIMs

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Tube Investments of India

Mr. Vellayan Subbiah

VC, Tube Investments of India

Powering India’s Manufacturing Renaissance

Can we replicate China model

We hosted Mr. Vellayan Subbiah, VC of Tube Investments of India, as a part of CEO

Track at AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

As per Mr Vellayan, contribution of India’s manufacturing sector to GDP is the lowest

compared to Asian peers

India needs to increase its manufacturing first before focusing on services

As per him, the reason focusing on services is not enough is that India will end up

focusing only on a small part of the value chain. Giving an example of the

semiconductor industry, he indicated that large part of the profit pool goes to

players who are doing fab-less design in the industry. India needs to capture bulk of

the profit pool of a particular sunrise sector and hence manufacturing in India will

remain critical to achieve the same

India does have critical talent available. However, it is very important to not lose

such world class talent to developed regions and we need to try and retain the same

and use it to make India globally competitive in critical sectors

He went on to highlight how China worked on “Make in China 2025” plan charted

out in 2015 and how they have achieved a major position in certain critical sectors

globally

The China 2025 long-term plan revolves around focusing on top 10 priority sectors

and maximising all of the nation’s resources in scaling these up. They have worked

on three key points: 1) indeginise R&D and control global supply chains 2) reduce

dependency on foreign technology and encourage domestic production 3) capture

global market share

Some of the key learnings from Chinese Industrialist include: 1) aligning with

national priorities 2) aggressively drive scale 3) invest in R&D and talent at scale 4)

engage in outbound M&A and JV formation 5) focus on global standards and

branding

He indicated that we should also work on a very similar template and try and

achieve global scale in some critical sectors that where we have the “right to win” in

the global landscape.

He also indicated that like China, India would need to adopt a particular model that

is workable as a nation and then replicate the same in five different areas

September 2025

Story in charts

Exhibit 1: India’s manufacturing share vs peers

Net Sales (INR b)

21.2

3.4

-18.6

-1.3

26.7

12.0

6.6

14.0

Growth (%)

Exhibit 2: Make in China 2025 – Top Priorities

Fuel Injection Equipment

Starters & Generators

Others

FY19

FY20

Injectors & Nozzles

Power tools

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25E FY26E

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25E FY26E

Exhibit 3: Key learnings from Chinese industrialists

EBITDA Margins (%)

Gross Margins (%)

44.8

17.8

46.1

40.6

15.1

12.4

10.3

12.1

38.1

36.6

36.5

13.8

35.2

36.2

13.1

12.5

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25E

FY26E

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

India’s Reform Agenda

Mr. Rajiv Memani

Chairman & CEO, EY India

India’s Reform Agenda: GST and beyond

Moving toward a more resilient India

We hosted Mr. Rajiv Memani, Chairman and CEO of EY India and President of CII 2025-26,

as a part of CEO Track at AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

A serious intent to bring in another wave of reforms

The level of engagement and discussions on reforms have been on a high keel– the

first time in this term of government. Deeper engagement by the Prime Minister

suggests serious intent to reform. Key pillars that the government is focusing on

include: (i) GST 2.0, (ii) ease of doing business, (iii) sectoral unlocks, and (iv)

improving competitiveness.

A 2.0 refresh proposed for GST

GST 1.0 was by far the biggest tax-related reform in the past decade, but some

fatigue had begun to creep in; hence, there was an urgent need to look at it through

a fresh lens and weed out systemic blockages. The goal of lowering the tax slabs for

several products and services is to stimulate downstream consumption, lower the

incidence of inverted duty structure, simplify slabs, address classification issues and

ease procedures. Strategically, this should be seen as a long-term signal for business-

and investment-friendly decisions.

All eyes on meeting of Council of State Ministers

The proposals are currently at the level of Council of State Ministers, which is likely

to meet over the next few days. Once proposals are approved by the council, the

implementation of new measures could be swift, especially as the festive season is

around the corner. While there have been some concerns over few states not being

on board, Mr. Memani indicated that states could actually be better off in GST 2.0,

as they will likely end up getting 50% of compensation cess, which will likely offset

any hit from lower GST rates.

Input tax credit issue may stay in few cases

While one of the key objectives of GST 2.0 is to resolve the issue of blocked input tax

credit (ITC), in some cases this may sustain, especially where the final goods/services

are proposed to be exempt from GST. In such cases, while the amount of ITC may

come down (owing to lower taxes), it may not be feasible for the exchequer to

provide ITC benefits. Consequently, in such cases the overall pass-through to the end

consumer prices could be lower than the total reduction in the GST rate. However,

September 2025

since multiple industry representations have been made, the final outcome is

awaited.

Impact on fiscal account expected to be manageable

As per Mr. Memani, the impact of foregone GST revenue on the fiscal should be

manageable. The government has displayed remarkable fiscal rectitude over the

years and has generally worked with conservative estimates, so it is unlikely that it

will deviate materially from this path. The multiplier effect of higher disposable

income can also compensate somewhat, as volumes may pick up owing to lower

retail prices. Moreover, in an extreme situation, the government has multiple

avenues to mobilize receipts, with the standout being the disinvestment route,

which the government has utilized moderately over the past few years. At some

stage the government will have to consider disinvestments more intently now.

Ease of doing business — the silent reforms

Improving the ease of doing business can go a long way to extract the value for the

private sector. Some key measures that could help businesses include: (i) faster

environmental approvals, (ii) single-window clearances and faster construction

permits, (iii) judicial reforms and decriminalization of smaller infractions, and (iv) tax

simplification. The ease-of-doing-business efforts are driven directly by the cabinet

secretary. The team is engaging in high-level benchmarking exercise with other

nations and cross-benchmarking between states to identify best practices.

The next leg of reforms: Factor reforms and sectoral unlocks

Mr. Memani iterated that there will be a cavalry of reforms, and after GST, one can

expect to see long overdue factor market reforms, especially in land and labor.

Unlike the 1991 reforms, the current set of reforms will likely come in discrete waves

wherein the government is likely to announce reforms concerning a particular sector

or factor with a gap. The approach is to scrutinize key sectors minutely and then

announce a comprehensive dossier of reform measures. Some of the key sectoral

unlocks could be in mining, tourism, energy, manufacturing, etc.

Aiming to energize the private sector

One of the key objectives of the proposed GST 2.0 reforms is to infuse energy into

the private sector through higher final consumer demand. This should lead to better

capacity utilization, and can ultimately be a key driver for reviving private capex.

Moreover, any dip in indirect taxes could be moderated by higher direct taxes

induced by higher demand. Also, the government is gradually directing market focus

toward debt/GDP rather than just fiscal deficit, so as to mitigate any over-reaction to

short-term aberrations in the fiscal consolidation trajectory.

India Inc. scorecard on R&D, capex and wage growth needs to improve

Mr. Memani highlighted that Indian policymakers have three key expectations from

the private sector to gradually take India on the path of resilience and greater self-

reliance: (i) reversal of severe underinvestment in R&D; (ii) better wage growth; &

(iii) capex and capacity building

India probably has among the lowest average R&D-to-revenue ratios among key

countries globally, and private companies have been very conservative and

September 2025

calibrated on capital investments. While this approach may have served to generate

higher RoE historically, current times call for a greater focus on R&D to ensure more

value addition. He also indicated that India needs to wean away from the low-cost

model and reorient its economy to drive more trickle-down benefits. Unless the

bottom 30% of India is strengthened, the consumption flywheel is unlikely to start.

A playbook for higher capex intensity

Mr. Memani indicated that the government is focusing on comprehensive factor

reforms and improved ease-of-doing business to enhance India’s competitiveness

and shift it toward higher value addition. Many of these could be achieved through

easier and streamlined processes. The number of clearances needs to be pruned; for

e.g., many industries currently face onerous clearance requirements (Mining-43,

Hospital-65, Hotels-46). These can be cut down and the overall clearance timeline

should also be crunched to within 1 year.

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

India Real Estate

Mr. Abhishek Lodha

Managing Director & CEO

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

FY25 FY26E FY27E

Sales

137.8 181.1 189.3

EBITDA

39.9

51.6

53.9

Adj. PAT

27.6

36.5

38.7

EPS (INR)

27.7

36.6

38.8

EPS Gr. (%)

69.8

32.1

6.2

BV/Sh. (INR)

202.3 234.6 269.2

Ratios

RoE (%)

14.6

16.7

15.4

RoCE (%)

12.1

13.8

13.3

Payout (%)

15.3

11.6

10.9

Valuations

P/E (x)

43.2

32.7

30.8

P/BV (x)

5.9

5.1

4.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

31.2

23.9

22.5

Div Yield (%)

0.4

Indian Housing: The growth engine of a USD10t economy

Long-term demand driver in place

We hosted Mr. Abhishek Lodha, MD & CEO of Lodha Developers, as part of CEO Track at

AGIC 2025. Here are our key insights from the session:

Real estate to grow ~2x faster than the Indian economy

India's economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with its GDP reaching

over USD3t in FY22. The real estate sector, which contributed 6-7% of the GDP, is on

track for a major expansion. By 2031, real estate's share of the GDP is projected to

increase to 13-15%. This growth is driven by rising incomes, with India's per capita

income expected to climb from around USD2,000 in FY22 to USD4,819 by FY31. This

shift will enable 75 to 100 million new households to become homeowners. As a

result, the real estate market is expected to grow to nearly USD1t by 2031,

representing a CAGR of about 20% between 2022 and 2031.

Tailwinds in place to drive demand in long run

India's growing and young population is fueling a significant increase in demand for

real estate. Each year, over 20 million students graduate and enter the workforce,

driving rapid urbanization and job growth in major cities. This trend is further

boosted by the increasing nuclearization of families in urban areas, which is creating

a greater need for individual housing units. The rising wages of this young workforce

are also making real estate more affordable, supporting the strong demand for

homes.

Robust wage growth and job creation to sustain housing demand

In India, the average wage across industries has consistently grown by more than 9%

annually over the past 8 to 10 years, with the exception of the Covid-19 pandemic

year. An analysis of 60 large listed companies (excluding major IT firms) shows that

their wage bills increased by 11.2%. When large IT companies are included in this

group, the overall wage growth drops to 7.1%. This is largely because IT companies

have added fewer employees compared to other sectors. The presence of global

captive centers (GCCs) in India is creating a significant number of jobs, effectively

compensating for the slowdown in hiring by traditional IT services companies. This

trend is set to accelerate, with the number of GCCs in India and the jobs they create

both projected to increase by 1.5x between FY25 and FY30.

September 2025

Supply-side consolidating - unlikely to keep pace with accelerating demand

Key policy changes in India, such as the implementation of the Real Estate

(Regulation and Development) Act (RERA), demonetization, and amendments to the

Benami Act, combined with the collapse of IL&FS, have fundamentally reshaped the

real estate market. These reforms led to a significant consolidation in the industry.

Around 60% of developers left the market, primarily due to a lack of funding and an

inability to deliver projects on time. As a result, over 50% of the current real estate

supply is now provided by top developers in each market. The market share of both

listed and leading non-listed developers has doubled from 2017 to 34% by FY24, a

trend that is expected to continue. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been

a notable shift toward premiumization. Buyers are increasingly seeking larger

homes, which has caused the total value of real estate sales to grow faster than the

volume of units sold.

Low risk to margins from construction cost inflation

Construction costs, which make up 25% to 45% of a property's final sales price, are

kept stable by a few key factors. A third of these costs comes from low-skilled and

semi-skilled labor. India has a large and readily available workforce, with ~250

million people underemployed in the agricultural sector. This constant supply helps

keep labor inflation low. While commodity prices can spike, as they did during the

Russia-Ukraine war, these increases are typically short-lived. The market quickly

adjusts, leading to price moderation. Since most projects take about 3-5 years to

build, developers have the flexibility to manage costs over the project's life.

Additionally, having a stock of completed and advanced under-construction homes

helps developers protect against sudden material price increases.

‘20:20’ Action Plan for LODHA

Since its public listing in FY21, LODHA has been strategically expanding into new

markets to grow its residential business. In FY25, the company's presales increased

by 21% YoY to INR176.3b, which exceeded its own projections. For FY26, LODHA

plans to launch new projects with a GDV of INR188b. LODHA's current inventory

includes 7.5msf of completed projects and 16.8msf of ongoing ones. Looking ahead,

LODHA has a planned inventory of ~85msf. This significant pipeline is expected to

fuel a 20% CAGR, with the goal of reaching INR500b in presales by FY31.

Additionally, LODHA is also focused on generating rental income, aiming for INR15b

annually. The company has a clear path to achieve over INR11b from its operational

and under-construction assets by 2031, with INR5b expected by the end of FY26.

This rental income will be enough to cover interest costs, helping LODHA maintain a

D/E well below its internal limit of 0.5x.

September 2025

Story in charts

Reported presales of INR45b, up 10% YoY

Sale Value (INRb)

42 40 43 45

2.3

3.7

Launched 3.9msf in 1Q

Launch (msf)

5.0

3.6

3.9

2.9

1.9 1.8

1.8 1.7

2.7

35 34

31 31 30

1.7

Source: Company, MOFSL

Steady performance in under-penetrated markets

1QFY25

14 15

3233

4 4

Presales (INRb)

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY26

Planned launches for the next 12M (msft)

10 10

7 6

10 10

2 3

111

Source: Company, MOFSL

Launch pipeline for the rest of FY26 has a healthy mix of own/JDA projects

Micro-market

MMR – South Central

MMR – Western Suburbs

MMR - Thane

MMR - Eastern Suburbs

MMR - Ext Eastern Suburbs

Pune

Bangalore

MMR – South Central

Grand Total

Own/JDA

Own

JDA

Own

JDA

Own

JDA

Own

JDA

Own

JDA

Own

Area (msf)

0.3

1.4

0.2

1.6

0.3

1.9

0.2

0.4

3.4

1.0

2.3

0.4

0.3

13.4

Est. GDV (INRb) No. of Projects

9.0

35.7

3.7

25.0

3.8

13.9

3.7

8.2

30.8

7.9

24.0

4.9

9.0

170.6

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

In 1Q, LODHA signed new projects with GDV worth INR227b

Micro-market

MMR – South Central

MMR – Western Suburbs

Pune - North East

Bangalore - North

Total



Period Added

Q1-26

Saleable Area (msf)

2.4

0.3

2.3

2.4

14.4

Est. GDV

227

Annualized cost inflation for the company’s portfolio moderated since Mar’21

Commodity/Component

Steel

Flooring materials

Electrical

Plumbing

Labor

External Windows

RMC

Lifts & Elevators

Carpentry Materials

Painting

CP Fittings

Firefighting

Gypsum

Overall

% Share in total cost

11.7

5.2

3.8

2.2

34.2

3.3

12.3

3.7

2.3

0.8

2.4

1.7

1.4

Mar'21 to Jun'25

% Change

-6.3

15.2

-3.3

-11.9

15.7

12.3

11.9

13.0

15.5

5.9

15.7

21.2

51.9

Weighted Impact

-0.7

0.8

-0.1

-0.3

5.4

0.4

1.5

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.7

10.8

Source: Company, MOFSL

Collections increased 7% YoY to INR29b

Collections (INRb)

43 44

28 26

27 29 24 28 26

19 21

Generated OCF of INR10b

OCF (INRb)

14 16

24 23

Source: MOFSL, Company

September 2025

Reduction in debt levels despite continued spending on BD

Net Debt (INR b)

1.6

Net D/E (x)

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.2

125

0.2

Source: MOFSL, Company

Expect launches to sustain at 10msf+

Launches (msf)

21.0

11.7

13.2

9.8

Expect 20% CAGR in presales over FY25-27, reaching INR253b

Sales value (INR b)

Area sold (Residential msf, RHS)

17.4

15.0

10.9

11.3

10.3

5.8

0.8

8.0

5.1

9.3

121

145

176

213

253

Source: MOFSL, Company

Expect LODHA to generate ~INR99b OCF by FY27

OCF (INR b)

Healthy balance sheet despite land investments

3.2

Net debt (INR b)

Net debt to Equity (x, RHS)

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.1

162

Source: Company, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Indian Hotels Company Limited

Mr. Puneet Chatwal

MD & CEO, Indian Hotels

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E MARCH

2025 2026E 2027E

Sales

83.3 100.1 112.9

EBITDA

27.7 33.8 39.7

We hosted Mr. Puneet Chhatwal, MD and CEO of Indian Hotels, as part of the CEO Track at

Adj. PAT

16.8 19.0 22.9

AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

EBITDA Margin (%) 33.2 33.7 35.1

Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 11.8 13.4 16.1

Structural tailwinds creating a multi-year growth opportunity

EPS Gr. (%)

33.4 13.0 20.8

BV/Sh. (INR)

78.6 91.1 106.5

The rising affluence, with the middle-class share expanding from 31% in CY24 to 38%

Ratios

Net D:E

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Payout (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Div. Yield (%)

FCF Yield (%)

(0.3) (0.3) (0.4)

16.3 15.7 16.3

15.8 16.7 17.1

6.0

5.0

64.8

38.8

0.1

0.6

57.3

31.5

0.1

1.2

47.5

26.2

0.1

2.0

Leveraging Structural Demand with Iconic Projects and

Global Scale

by CY30 and disposable incomes increasing 50%, is set to drive robust growth in

discretionary spending, particularly in travel and hospitality. Tourism demand in

India is expected to grow at a strong 9-11% CAGR, while supply is anticipated at

around 6-8%, supported by both domestic and foreign travel. Foreign tourist arrivals

are projected to more than double from 10.9m in CY19 (similar level in CY24) to 25m

by CY30. Supportive policy initiatives are set to drive further sector growth. The

government’s USD2t infrastructure investment plan, regional air connectivity

through UDAN, and favorable measures such as tourism infrastructure status and

MSME financing are expected to improve accessibility, enhance capacity, and

accelerate the formalization of the hospitality sector.

The ARR is currently stable

and expected to witness a mid-to-high single digit growth, with strong flow-

through on EBITDA.

Asset-light international strategy for scalable growth

The company is pursuing an international expansion strategy with a strong focus on

an asset-light approach to enhance returns and mitigate capital risk. Expansion is

targeted across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe, with gateway cities like

New York, London, and Paris identified as key priorities. Southeast Asia remains a

central growth market, while the US is being approached selectively, given its

segmented nature. International presence, particularly in the luxury and lifestyle

segments, is expected to strengthen brand equity and global recognition. A notable

addition includes a new hotel in Frankfurt (expected to be operational by Feb’26),

strategically located near the Indian consulate, underscoring the brand’s focus on

key global hubs.

Pipeline of iconic projects

IHCL has curated a robust pipeline of landmark developments across key

destinations, reinforcing its positioning in the luxury, lifestyle, and leisure segments.

These projects are designed to enhance brand differentiation while catering to both

domestic and international demand.

September 2025



Taj Bandstand, Mumbai

– A marquee project comprising 330 keys along with 85

branded residences. IHCL has secured all necessary approvals, enabling the

project to move ahead, with construction expected to commence before the end

of FY26.



Lakshadweep Islands (Suheli & Kadmat)

– Exclusive eco-luxury resorts that will

establish a pioneering presence in one of India’s most pristine tourism frontiers.



Goa & Gujarat Leisure Assets –

Upcoming large-scale developments at Shiroda,

Aguada Plateau, Goa MOPA, and Ekta Nagar (Statue of Unity), aimed at creating

distinctive leisure and tourism destinations.

Accelerated 2030 growth plan

IHCL continues on its path towards

Accelerated 2030,

underpinned by scale,

profitability, and sustainability. The plan targets expansion of its hotel portfolio from

over 565 properties in FY25 to over 700 by FY30, with more than 500 operational

assets, strengthening its leadership position in the hospitality sector. Enterprise

revenues are expected to more than double from INR148b in FY25 to INR300b, while

consolidated revenues are projected to grow from INR85b to INR150b. Alongside

topline growth, profitability remains central, with ROCE improving from 17% to over

20%, supported by disciplined capital allocation and an asset-light model.

Innovative dining concepts driving global brand equity

IHCL is strengthening its F&B business by expanding existing brands and introducing

new concepts like

LOYA in Mumbai

and

House of Ming in London,

enhancing global

brand equity. Growth is being supported by digitization, revenue management tools,

and increasing demand from weddings, with additional wedding dates in 2H

providing a strong tailwind.

September 2025

Story in charts

Trend in sales

Consol Revenue (INRb)

(1)

(65)

8.3

45.1

44.6

15.8

30.6

58.1

67.7

83.3 100.1 112.9

9.7

(3.6)

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E

18.4

21.7

(23.0)

4.0

18.0

21.6

27.7

33.8

39.7

13.2

Consolidated EBITDA trend

Growth (%)

Consol EBITDA (INRb)

31.9

31.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

33.2

33.7

35.1

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E

ROE trend

RoE (%)

-6%

-5%

11%

14%

16%

17%

16%

17%

16%

Adj PAT trend

Adj. PAT (INRb)

16.8

10.0 12.6

2.8

3.2

19.0

22.9

13%

-21%

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25 FY26E FY27E

FY19

FY20

(2.6)

(8.4)

FY21 FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25 FY26E FY27E

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Haldiram’s Group

Mr. Krishan Chutani

CEO, Haldiram’s Group

Brand legacy continues, looking to expand global

footprint

We hosted Mr. Krishan Chutani, CEO of Haldiram’s Group (Haldiram), and Mr. Shivkishan

Agarwal, Promoter, as part of our CEO Track at AGIC 2025. Here are our key insights from

the session:

Legacy, scale, and financial strength

Haldiram stands as one of India’s largest packaged food brands, backed by a rich 90+

year legacy and leadership in the savory snacks category. It is the sixth-largest

packaged food player in India, commanding nearly 40% market share in ethnic

snacks. With a presence in 80+ countries and distribution across ~4m outlets in

India, Haldiram has built a truly expansive footprint. Financially, it is a large,

profitable, and debt-free enterprise. In FY25, the company reported revenue of

USD1.45b with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%. The company operates at less

than 25 days working capital. The business has delivered a 13% CAGR during FY22-

25. Haldiram portfolio is well-diversified across ethnic snacks (64%), western snacks

(14%), sweets (8%), ready-to-eat/frozen (4%), and others such as bakery, beverages,

and gift packs (11%). Strategic acquisitions of regional packaged food brands like

Aakash, Babaji, and Vitmore have further expanded its consumer base and added

~USD90m in revenue.

Brand equity and consumer loyalty

Haldiram has cemented its position as one of the most trusted consumer brands in

India, thanks to its consistency in delivering authentic taste over decades. This has

fostered strong consumer confidence, loyalty, and repeat consumption. The

company has deep penetration in tier-3 and tier-4 towns, and the brand enjoys

unmatched mindshare. Its distinctive taste profile and high repeat usage have

created a loyal customer base, while minimal reliance on traditional marketing

underscores its strength in organic, word-of-mouth-driven growth. Leveraging this

powerful brand equity, Haldiram has successfully diversified into newer categories

such as ready-to-eat meals, beverages, and bakery, positioning itself as a credible

challenger across multiple consumer segments.

September 2025

Distribution leadership and competitive advantage

Haldiram has built one of the most extensive and robust distribution networks in

India’s snacks industry, with a reach across ~4m outlets, translating into 46%

penetration of the salty snacks segment. Its dominance is most pronounced in North

India, where it covers 1.8m retailers (60% penetration). In West and East India, its

distribution spans ~0.8m retailers each (41% and 36% penetration respectively). In

South India, it serves ~0.6m retailers (42% penetration). This wide and balanced

regional presence gives Haldiram a clear edge over competitors like PepsiCo, Bingo,

Balaji, Bikaji and others, ensuring superior product availability across both urban and

rural markets. Such scale in distribution is a key enabler of portfolio expansion and

future growth.

Guidance

Haldiram aims to achieve ~USD2.9b in sales by FY30 through a focused category-

level growth strategy that capitalizes on its strong brand and market presence. This

strategy is built on three pillars: strengthening core categories such as ethnic and

western snacks, expanding developing segments including ready-to-eat, frozen, and

bakery products, and entering into new categories such as beverages and noodles to

further diversify its portfolio. The company expects that the incremental revenue

growth, from USD1.4b in FY25 to USD2.9b by FY30, to be largely broad-based across

ethnic snacks, western snacks, sweets, and ready-to-eat & frozen products.

Alongside this growth plan, synergies from the merger of two sizable family

businesses present key opportunities to enhance EBITDA margins. These synergies

focus on centralizing procurement of raw and packaging materials, consolidating

back-end functions and teams to reduce costs, and optimizing production and

demand clusters to cut transportation expenses. Together, these measures position

the merged entity for substantial margin improvements, operational efficiency, and

long-term financial gains.

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Mr. Renny Thomas, McKinsey

Mr. Renny Thomas

Sr. Partner, McKinsey

Rewiring enterprises to unlock the value of AI

Thoughtful, inclusive, and astonishingly forward-looking

We hosted Mr. Renny Thomas, Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company, as part of CEO Track

at AGIC 2025. Below are key insights from the session:

AI potential vs. bottom-line reality

While AI dominates headlines, only around 11% of enterprises currently see

measurable bottom-line benefits, despite 93% of them experimenting with the

technology. Mr. Thomas likened this to electricity’s adoption curve, where domain-

specific applications, not just the breakthrough itself, drove real economic value. For

now, AI remains largely consumer-focused, and enterprises must adapt it with

domain expertise to realize commercial impact.

Moving beyond deterministic tech

Enterprise adoption faces challenges because today’s AI is probabilistic, not

deterministic. This creates hesitation around accountability when errors occur. Mr.

Thomas emphasized that AI cannot be treated as “plug and play”, instead

organizations need to rewire operating models, redesign workflows, and create

accountability frameworks that balance innovation with enterprise-grade reliability

and trust.

Multi-agent systems: The breakthrough ahead

Mr. Thomas highlighted the shift from single LLMs to multi-agent systems as a

turning point. Similar to specialized machines on an assembly line, multiple agents

can collaborate to complete complex, non-linear tasks. From credit memo

generation to relationship support in wealth management, these systems reduce

hallucinations, improve reliability, and embed applied intelligence into everyday

operations, enabling employees to operate at superhuman levels.

Practical enterprise applications – From concept to tangible impact

Mr. Thomas emphasized that AI in enterprises is no longer just a pilot exercise but is

beginning to create tangible impact through targeted use cases. In credit analysis,

for example, multi-agent systems are streamlining one of the most time-intensive

tasks in banking. Instead of analysts manually gathering documents, checking

calculations, and drafting credit memos, AI agents now automate the process end-

to-end, fetching relevant data, validating it against predefined criteria, critiquing

September 2025

results, and producing complete structured outputs. This not only reduces

turnaround time but also improves accuracy and consistency. Similarly, in wealth

management, AI agents are reshaping how relationship managers engage with

clients. By recommending next-best actions, tailoring conversations to individual

profiles, and automating follow-ups, these tools ensure advice is not only

personalized but also compliant and timely. These are not futuristic experiments;

they are already operational, demonstrating how AI can be embedded seamlessly

into core workflows to enhance both productivity and client experience.

Differentiating winners from laggards

According to Mr. Thomas, enterprises creating real impact share five traits: a bold

vision with financial targets rather than vanity metrics; a full-stack approach

integrating GenAI with traditional AI and automation; prioritization of

transformative domains instead of point solutions; adoption of multi-agent systems

for reliability; and embedding AI into frontline operations with proper governance

and accountability.

India’s AI opportunity

India has a unique chance to leapfrog global peers, thanks to its digital

infrastructure, lighter legacy systems, and ability to design for linguistic and cultural

diversity. Success will depend on inclusive design, trust-building, and scalable India-

first strategies. Mr. Thomas noted that Indian banks and corporates may even

outpace Western counterparts in AI adoption over the next decade.

Collaboration, not just competition

The future of AI will be shaped not only by competition but also by collaboration

across ecosystems. Mr. Thomas emphasized that banks, fintechs, and NBFCs can

jointly scale impact through APIs, shared platforms, and co-created propositions.

Those who orchestrate such ecosystems will pull ahead of peers who attempt to go

it alone.

September 2025

Story in charts

Banks can identify business areas for AI transformation and then rewire them to boost value

Source: McKinsey, MOFSL

September 2025

Bank subdomain with high business impact and high technical feasibility should be first in line for AI transformation

Source: McKinsey, MOFSL

September 2025

To drive sustainable value, banks need to put AI first and revamp the entire technology

Source: McKinsey, MOFSL

September 2025

Credit manager’s role has the potential to evolve significantly thanks to AI

Source: McKinsey, MOFSL

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Project Man of Maharashtra

Dr. Sanjay Mukherjee

Metropolitan Commissioner of MMRDA

Transforming MMR with sustainable Infrastructure

MMRDA executing several big-ticket infra projects

We hosted Dr. Sanjay Mukherjee, Metropolitan Commissioner of MMRDA, as a part of the

CEO Track at AGIC CY25. Here are our key insights from the session:

Big-ticket projects strategically being executed to transform MMR

MMRDA is the largest project implementation agency in India focused on developing

big-ticket projects in the MMR region. The recently completed MTHL project has

significantly improved connectivity, and several such projects are under execution. It

is the largest sea bridge in India. MMRDA is largely a self-funded agency with limited

funding from Central Authorities, allowing faster execution. MMRDA raises funds

from Land Monetization, availing financing credit lines and multi-lateral funding

from agencies like JICA.

MMRDA launches ‘Mumbai in Minutes’ project

MMRDA has initiated the ‘Mumbai in Minutes' project, which will guarantee travel

times of under 59 minutes from one part of the city to another. It expects ongoing

infrastructure developments, particularly in Metro and road networks, to help

achieve this vision. This project aims to reduce travel time, enhance connectivity,

and provide a strong fillip to real estate development in the region.

Key components of the initiatives include: a) Adding new metro lines to connect

suburban areas with business hubs, b) Coastal Road Project to ease traffic

congestion, c) Trans-Harbor Link to improve connectivity, and d) Building new

tunnels and flyovers. While the vision comes with its own challenges, it is expected

to significantly ease travel conditions in the region, contributing significantly to

India’s GDP.

Vision 2047 – Develop MMR into economic powerhouse

MMRDA is currently executing projects worth INR3t across metro lines, roads,

bridges, etc. It expects to raise the region’s GDP from the current USD140b to

USD300b by 2030, and USD1t by 2047. Several strategic corridors have been

identified for development to improve connectivity across various parts of the

region. These developments would be driven by investments from both the public

and private sectors.

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Metro Brands

Mr. Nissan Joseph

Chairman & CEO, Metro Brands

Financials & Valuations (INR b)

Y/E March

FY26E FY27E FY28E

Sales

27.8

32.3

37.1

EBITDA

8.4

10.0

11.6

Adj. PAT

4.2

5.0

5.9

EPS (INR)

15.4

18.6

22.0

EPS Gr. (%)

10.8

20.4

18.3

BV/Sh. (INR)

74.5

86.8 101.4

Ratios

RoE (%)

22.8

23.6

24.0

RoCE (%)

15.6

15.9

16.2

Payout (%)

35.8

34.8

Valuations

P/E (x)

76.7

63.7

53.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 39.6

33.4

28.5

EV/Sales (X)

12.0

10.3

8.9

Div. Yield (%)

22.8

23.6

24.0

Curating India’s footwear wardrobe

We hosted Mr. Nissan Joseph, CEO of Metro Brands ltd, as part of CEO Track at AGIC 2025.

Here are our key insights from the session:

Walking the growth runway

The Indian retail footwear industry remains structurally attractive, underpinned by

impulse-driven buying behavior, rising aspirational consumption, and the ongoing

formalization of the ~70% unorganized market. Strategic enablers such as prime

store locations, curated presentation, and omnichannel last-mile delivery drive

higher conversions, while occasions (e.g., weddings) and lifestyle shifts (athleisure,

fitness) provide steady demand tailwinds. Although near-term demand has seen

diversion toward travel and hospitality, consumer aspiration and spending power

remain resilient. With premiumization, the rapid scale-up of sports & athleisure, and

the migration of value consumers into organized retail, the industry is positioned for

growth outpacing GDP. Short-term volatility aside, footwear is a durable

discretionary category with long-term structural drivers intact.

Metro Brands: Curating India’s footwear wardrobe

Metro Brands is firmly positioned as a footwear specialist, curating India’s footwear

wardrobe across occasions, price points, and lifestyles through 938 stores in 206

cities and 9 brands. Its portfolio spans:



Core

(Metro, Mochi, Walkway)

- Anchored by premium house-brand heavy

banners Metro and Mochi (high-margin) and value-focused Walkway (margin-

dilutive but largest runway, targeting unorganized-to-organized shift).



Strategic

(Crocs, Fitflop, Clarks)

- These brands combine distribution through

Metro/Mochi (MBOs) with the ability to scale via EBOs. Crocs delivers strong

profitability and industry-leading ROC, while Clarks and Fitflop broaden Metro’s

addressable market.



Sports

Athleisure

(Fila, Foot Locker, New Era)

- Tapping into India’s USD7.5b

athleisure and Gen Z sneaker culture, this division expands Metro’s reach to

younger, lifestyle-driven consumers. While initially margin-dilutive, it builds

long-term growth optionality and future-proofs the portfolio.

While near-term growth has moderated amid market normalization, management

remains confident that resilient consumer aspiration and structural tailwinds from

athleisure and value formalization will help Metro sustain

early-to-mid teens

growth,

comfortably outpacing industry averages. Growth is anchored by the

following structural levers:

September 2025

Disciplined expansion: Scaling beyond 200 cities profitably

Metro sees a significant opportunity to scale beyond its current ~200 cities into a

potential 600-city footprint. Its strategy prioritizes clustering and backfilling in

proven markets, adding complementary banners such as Mochi and Crocs around

successful stores to maximize demand capture, deepen market share, and pre-empt

competition. While rental escalations temporarily slowed expansion, Metro plans to

re-accelerate store growth as costs normalize, maintaining its disciplined and

profitability-focused approach.

Sports & Lifestyle: Expanding the addressable market

Brands like Fila, Foot Locker, and New Era provide a structural growth lever in India’s

expanding athleisure market. Rising fitness adoption, and Gen Z’s preference for

athleisure as daily wear are driving demand. While margins are slightly dilutive, the

segment expands Metro’s addressable market and customer base. Notably, Metro

already ranks as Skechers’ largest customer in India.

Value Footwear: Zudio of footwear

Metro sees its largest growth lever in value footwear, with ~70% of India’s market

still unorganized. Walkway, with an ASP of INR600-700, is positioned to formalize

this segment by offering affordable yet stylish products that upgrade consumers

from unbranded to branded retail. The company is following a phased strategy,

scaling first in South and West India to refine the operating model.

September 2025

Story in charts

Expect MBL to reach ~1,285 stores by FY28 (vs. 908 in FY25)

Metro

Mochi

Walkaway

Crocs

Fitflop

239

335

Fila/FL/NE/Clarks

250

100

375

195

199

209

208

237

317

219

256

345

229

296

375

410

450

Expect 14% revenue CAGR over FY25-28

Revenue (INR b)

67.9

58.4

10.8

-37.7

16.2

14.8

Growth YoY (%)

Expect MBL to clock a 14% GP CAGR over FY25-28

Gross Profit

57.9

10.9

58.1

57.7

Gross Margin%

57.8

57.9

58.0

5.6

6.4

55.6

54.9

13.7

12.9

8.0

13.4

21.3

23.6

25.1

27.8

32.3

37.1

7.1

4.4

7.8

12.4

14.5

16.1

18.7

21.5

Source: MOFSL, Company

Expect 15% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28

EBITDA (INR b)

27.4

21.4

30.5

31.9

29.7

EBITDA Margins (%)

30.2

30.4

30.9

31.3

12.5

8.1

Expect 16% adj. PAT CAGR over FY25-28

Adj PAT (INR b)

16.0

17.2

14.7

Source: MOFSL, Company

PAT Margins (%)

15.1

15.7

16.1

3.5

1.7

4.1

6.8

7.0

7.6

8.4

10.0

11.6

1.6

0.6

2.1

3.7

3.5

3.8

4.2

5.1

6.0

Source: MOFSL, Company

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

TRANSFORMING TRADE,

STRENGTHENING INDIA

Shri Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and

Industry, Government of India

Transforming Trade, Strengthening India

Turning Crisis into Opportunity!!

We hosted Shri Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, as

part of our CEO track session at AGIC 2025. Here are the key takeaways of the session:

An opportunity to strengthen ties with other countries

Shri Piyush Goyal highlighted that the Indian economy is on a very strong footing and

with several macro-economic indicators in very robust shape. He reassured that

government is actively working to mitigate the current crisis on trade engagement

with US, by turning it into an opportunity by strengthening and deepening India’s

relationship with other key economic blocs/countries. India has finalized bilateral

agreements with UK, Australia, UAE, Mauritius, the EFTA bloc (with members

including Norway, Switzerland) while there is very active dialogue in progress with

the European Union. More such trade agreements will be struck in future and it is

heartening to note enthusiasm across nations to deepen trade ties with India.

Optimistic of improvement in relations with US

Indo-US ties have been impacted somewhat over the recent punitive tariffs from US

on Indian exports. Nonetheless, Shri Goyal is hopeful of an improvement, as near-

term geopolitical issues seem to have overwhelmed long-term trade interests for the

time being. However, India continues to engage with the US and Shri Goyal remains

optimistic that a mutually beneficial bilateral trade deal should be struck with US,

once there is a thaw in current situation

GST 2.0 to be implemented swiftly

The GST council meets on 3

-4

September and Shri Goyal believes that once the

proposed GST 2.0 measures are finalized and approved, the implementation could

be very swift, as this coincides with the festive season buying and currently there is

some holdback on purchasing decisions owing expectations of lower GST. The

commerce & industry minister reiterated that the new GST measures, once

implemented will not only give boost to consumer sentiment and demand fillip but

also make compliance easier as several procedures will be streamlined.

Readying the arsenal of reforms

The commerce & industry Minister stated that the government is working tirelessly

to design a comprehensive package of reforms to further strengthen the business

environment and manufacturing prowess of Indian economy. The government of

India is working actively with corporate sector to fortify India’s long-term capacity

and is proactively seeking feedback from industry captains to identify specific areas

for reforms.

September 2025

Wide scope of reforms:

In addition to policy changes, focus will be on improving the

ease of doing business, ease of living, ironing out the needless day-to-day hassles

that reduce business efficiency. The government is working to deregulate several

aspects of business, ease processes, procedures and also attempt to decriminalize

minor offences - which otherwise tend to place avoidable burden on the businesses.

The government has already brought out Jan Vishwas Bill 2.0 and ~355 different

sections of different laws have already been decriminalized. Further attempting to

explore another 1000 sections across IPR laws, protection from dumping, safeguard

duty laws, central, state, local bodies laws, factory act, labor laws, change of land

usage etc. He also indicated there could be some positive movement forward on

disinvestments as well.

Quantum Leap for a Viksit Bharat

Shri Goyal stated that India will strive to become as self-reliant as possible, to shield

Indian economy from global, geopolitical disruptions in a volatile and uncertain

world. However, self-reliance will not mean India becomes insular, rather it will go

hand in hand with building stronger relations with other nations.

Invoking the Prime Minister’s vision of a Viksit Bharat (developed India) by 2047, he

exhorted industry captains to envision India for longer term, aspire big and build

capacities for future. Indian industry also needs to now move beyond incremental

change and take quantum leap in this journey. The in-tandem working of

government and RBI in assuring strong growth with price stability should encourage

private sector to take bold steps. Infrastructure and capacity building should be a

strong force multiplier and help India become an even stronger economic

superpower.

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

CEO Track

Resilient India in a dynamic

geopolitical world

General (Dr) Manoj Mukund Naravane (Retd)

Ex-Army Chief

India’s positioning amid current geopolitics

Defense sector in India

We hosted General (Dr) Manoj Mukund Naravane (Retd), Ex-Army Chief, as part of our CEO

track session at AGIC 2025. Here are the key takeaways of the session:

India’s relations with its neighbors

General Naravane believes that India’s meeting with China at the Shanghai

Cooperation Organisation is not necessarily an outcome of recent unfavorable

tariff/realpolitik actions from the US, as commonly believed. In fact, India has always

sought a healthy working relationship with China to ensure regional and global

stability, cognizing the fact that both are large, populous and civilized countries with

economic ascendancy. While China continues to provide both overt and covert

support to Pakistan, it should eventually dawn on China that such behavior is

mutually detrimental. General Naravane indicated that India is not unduly perturbed

by China’s string-of-pearls strategy, and India also engages in several bilateral

goodwill initiatives with other neighbors of China, such as Vietnam, Mongolia, etc.

India does, however, need to develop as much self-sufficiency as possible in

manufacturing to reduce dependence on China, especially for critical and strategic

items. For Pakistan, General Naravane believes that India will have to maintain vigil

at the borders, owing to strained ties with Pakistan, where its army literally drives

the narrative by targeting India. This situation can resolve only through internal

popular churn in Pakistan and cannot be changed through external intervention.

As regards other neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, etc.,

India has desisted from the big brother syndrome and has displayed remarkable

restraint in dealing with any deviant behavior of smaller neighbors.

Shaping modern warfare through emerging technologies

Modern warfare is becoming increasingly technology-driven, with drones and

counter-drone systems playing a central role. These are expected to see continuous

innovation and investment. Indian companies are beginning to participate actively in

this space, reflecting both domestic needs and the opportunities to build export

capabilities. The pace of adoption and integration of such technologies will be key to

maintaining operational effectiveness.

September 2025

Self-reliance in defense production

India’s focus on self-reliance in defense has grown steadily, with greater emphasis

on indigenous manufacturing, design, and technology development. The ‘Make in

India’ initiative has encouraged domestic companies to expand capabilities across

areas such as equipment, systems, and advanced technologies. This shift not only

reduces external dependence but also creates opportunities for innovation, local job

creation, and the development of a stronger industrial base that can support long-

term security needs. Incrementally, enhanced investments toward R&D and

development of bigger platforms should be the key focus areas of defense sector

companies and MoD.

Building capabilities and partnerships

General Naravane highlighted that strengthening defense is not only about

equipment but also about capabilities. Training, logistics, and support infrastructure

remain vital areas that need constant improvement. International partnerships can

play an enabling role in this process, whether through technology transfers, JVs, or

collaborative research. By engaging with a wider set of global partners, India can

access new capabilities while ensuring greater strategic autonomy.

September 2025

AUTOMOBILES

Mahindra & Mahindra

Maruti Suzuki India

Bajaj Auto

Hero MotoCorp

Ashok Leyland

Balkrishna Industries

Apollo Tyres

Amara Raja Energy

Craftsman Automation

CEAT

ASK Automotive

BANKING

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Bank of Baroda

Punjab National Bank

IndusInd Bank

Yes Bank

AU Small Finance Bank

IDFC First Bank

Federal Bank

Bandhan Bank

RBL Bank

Equitas Small Finance

Andromeda Sales

INSURANCE

LIC of India

HDFC Life Insurance

ICICI Lombard General

ICICI Prudential Life Ins

Max Financial Services

Star Health & Allied Ins

Niva Bupa Health Ins

NBFC - LENDING

Shriram Finance

Aditya Birla Capital

HDB Financial Services

L&T Finance

Piramal Enterprises

PNB Housing Finance

Five-Star Business

Finance

AAVAS Financiers

Home First Finance

Fedbank Financial

SG Finserve

IKF Finance

KreditBee

NBFC - NON LENDING

HDFC Asset

Management

BSE

Nippon Life India Asset

360 ONE WAM

MCX

Nuvama Wealth

Aditya Birla Sun Life

AMC

Angel One

CAPITAL GOODS

Larsen & Toubro

Solar Industries India

Cummins India

KEC International

Kalpataru Projects

Triveni Turbine

Zen Technologies

TD Power Systems

Unimech Aerospace

Paras Defence

CEMENT

UltraTech Cement

JK Cements

Dalmia Bharat

Chemicals

Gujarat

Fluorochemicals

Navin Fluorine Intl

CONSUMER

Hindustan Unilever

Varun Beverages

Godrej Consumer

Products

Tata Consumer

Products

United Spirits

Radico Khaitan

L T Foods

Allied Blenders

CONSUMER DURABLES

Polycab India

Havells India

KEI Industries

HEALTHCARE

Sun Pharmaceutical

Max Healthcare

Institute

Apollo Hospitals

Mankind Pharma

Lupin

Aurobindo Pharma

Biocon

Laurus Labs

Ajanta Pharma

Aster DM Healthcare

Krishna Institue of

Medical

Piramal Pharma

OneSource Specialty

Dr. Agarwal's

Healthcare

INFRASTRUCTURE

GMR Airports

Afcons Infrastructure

LOGISTICS

JSW Infrastructure

Delhivery

DTDC

METALS

JSW Steel

Tata Steel

Vedanta

Jindal Steel

OIL & GAS

HPCL

REAL ESTATE

Lodha Developers

Godrej Properties

Oberoi Realty

Phoenix Mills

NEXUS Select Trust

Anant Raj

Sri Lotus Developers

Keystone Realtors

Max Estates

Sunteck Realty

RETAIL

Raymond Lifestyle

Restaurant Brands Asia

Go Fashion

GNG Electronics

TECHNOLOGY

TCS

Infosys

HCL Technologies

LTIMindtree

Tech Mahindra

Persistent Systems

Mphasis

Hexaware

Technologies

BlackBuck (Zinka

Logistics Solutions)

BookmyShow

EatClub Brands

InMobi Technology

Services

UTILITIES

Tata Power Company

Waaree Energies

Suzlon Energy

ReNew

Premier Energies

OTHERS

Adani Enterprises

Interglobe Aviation

Indian Hotels Co

One 97

Communications

APL Apollo Tubes

Asahi India Glass

Ventive Hospitality

Gravita India

Time Technoplast

VA Tech Wabag

Ellenbarrie Industrial

Gases

Juniper Hotels

Sambhv Steel Tubes

EMS

Kaynes Technology

Amber Enterprises

September 2025

1st – 5th September, 2025

‘MANAGEMENT SAYS’

Company

AUTOMOBILES

Takeaway



MM has earmarked three ICE launches in CY26, including two mid-cycle

enhancements and one new model, which will not be a five-seater.

Additionally, it intends to launch two new EVs next year.



It is currently receiving 150-200 EV bookings per day. Within EVs, the 9E

model is expected to qualify for PLI soon, while the 6E model may take

longer to become eligible.



The company’s eventual target is to reach 18k EVs per month, which will

translate into about 20% EV penetration. At these volumes, it is likely to

generate an EBIT margin of 5-6% on EVs.



The proposed GST rate cut will be positive for Bolero and XUV3XO. Given

that cess is likely to be compensated only with cess, the company has taken

a conscious decision not to raise the dealer stock ahead of the GST cut.

Mahindra and Mahindra



In the 2-3.5T pick up segment, it has recently launched a new model viz

Veero, which boasts of many segment-first features, including power

windows, rear view camera, and touch screen. This is enabling the company

to outperform industry growth.



The tractor outlook continues to remain positive, given: 1) a normal

monsoon, including a healthy distribution pan-India, 2) MSPs increasing for

kharif and rabi crops, 3) proposed GST rate cut, and 4) doubling of credit

limit on the Kisan credit card scheme. While the company continues to

maintain its guidance of high single-digit growth for FY26, it remains

confident of outperforming industry growth even in FY26E.



Capex guidance stands at INR370b over FY25-27. Of this, INR270b will be

invested in Autos (divided equally between ICE and EVs), INR50b for farm,

and the balance in other investments.



In PVs, customers are deferring their purchase decision in light of the

potential GST rate cuts. While enquiries did rise, conversions remained weak

in the Ganpati festival



PV demand tailwinds include the proposed GST rate cut, reduction in interest

rates, income tax benefits and normal monsoon



They continue to maintain their 20%+ growth guidance for exports for FY26

Maruti Suzuki



Bajaj Auto

as they have strong visibility for e-Vitara exports to Suzuki and Toyota end

markets

MSIL new launches include the e-Vitara and the soon to be launched new

SUV. They also target to have 8 new nameplate launches in the next five

years. With this, they would target to get as close to 50% PV market share as

possible with leadership position in SUVs as well

Merger of SMG with MSIL to be completed by Q2 or Q3

Given their high CNG mix, they are confident of CAFÉ compliance going

forward

The company expects export growth momentum to continue. Key drivers

include Latin America and a gradual recovery in Africa. While the current run

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

rate is still below the previous annual run rate of 2.5m units, the company

expects to reach the peak run rate soon.



BJAUT has lost share in the domestic motorcycle segment, and the key

reason for this loss has been its conscious decision to stay away from the

entry-level segment.



The 125cc is experiencing heightened competition and remains a key growth

area. Given the segment expansion, the company believes a further

segmental differentiation is warranted. Hence, it plans to launch another

125cc product in 2026. While the brand is still under consideration, it is

unlikely to be under the Pulsar brand. The company expects to recover the

lost share in the 125cc segment post this launch.



Post GST rate cuts, the company does not expect the EV transition to slow

down in 2Ws, given that the TCO would continue to remain favorable for EV

2Ws. Management noted that despite a sharp reduction in the FAME

subsidy, the EV industry has continued to grow, and the same trend is

expected post the GST cut.



While ABS implementation is highly probable, the supply chain needs to be

geared up accordingly.



The company is in the process of completing the KTM acquisition. Once all

approvals are in place, the first thing it intends to work on is improving the

governance standards in the company and then reaping the benefits of the

synergies of both entities.



Demand has actually improved in 2Ws over the last couple of months



The proposed GST rate rationalisation has not had a major impact on 2W

retails. They may look to fund working capital of dealers, if need be, to help

them stock up inventory ahead of festive – which is anyways a normal

practice



Regarding 2W mandatory implementation of ABS wef Jan2026, discussions

Hero MotoCorp

are still on with the Government. Anyways, there is not enough capacity for

manufacturing 2W ABS if this is mandated.



In terms of new launches, HMCL has recently launched multiple models with

advanced features and with aggressive price points. Few examples include:

new Glamour X (cruise control – industry first), turn by turn navigation

introduced in HF Deluxe Pro, 14 inch wheelbase introduced in scooters and

the soon to be launched Xoom 160cc



They are seeing a healthy momentum in their export markets. They expect to

clock 30-40k per month in exports in FY26E. Their long term target remains

to achieve 10% of their volumes from exports.



Management continues to maintain volume growth guidance of about 5%

Ashok Leyland

for MHCVs for FY26E and slightly higher for LCVs. The proposed GST rate cut

is expected to help improve demand in H2 for the industry, led by a pick-up

in economic activity.



The cement segment has started to pick up over the last couple of months.

The ICV and haulage segment’s demand has picked up. Tippers and MAV

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

demand should start picking up as well. Demand revival in the tractor trailers

segment is awaited.



The company expects the export momentum to be maintained and projects

to clock ~25% growth in FY26, driven by the GCC regions. It expects key

markets like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to see a revival in the coming

quarters.



The company has been able to sustain gross margins in 1Q QoQ as it was

able to increase the net vehicle realization QoQ. Moreover, the steel price

hike was offset by a decline in rubber prices.



The 50% tariff on tire imports to the US from India is likely to impact BKT’s

tire sales in the US market, which currently accounts for about 10% of BKT’s

total revenue. In response to this sharp tariff hike, BKT has temporarily

halted exports to the US. At the industry level, tire imports make up ~50% of

the total tire sales in the US OHT segment, with Indian players contributing a

major portion of this mix. While a 50% tariff hike is neither easily passed on

nor absorbed, BKT has established a strong brand presence in the region,

making it difficult for competitors to displace it.



BKT holds a high single-digit market share in the US agri segment and ~15%

share in the Indian agri segment.



In its foray into TBR, PCR, and 2Ws, the company plans to focus on niche

Balkrishna Tyres



replacement markets within these categories. It aims to deliver value to both

customers and channel partners in order to ramp up its presence. The

company intends to begin from its current dealers and expand its presence

as needed. Notably, the company has already been selling a small quantity of

2W tires.

While input costs are stable, the currency headwind (INR depreciation to

USD) may lead to some increase in raw material costs in the near term.

The company has outlined a roadmap to achieve INR230b in revenue by

FY30, of which 70% would come from the core business, 20% from its

proposed foray into TBR and PCR, and 10% from CB sales to third parties.

This translates to about 11% revenue CAGR for the core OHT segment.

To achieve this long-term target, the company has earmarked a capex of

~INR48b till FY28.

Apollo has underperformed peers over last few quarters. However, in the

replacement segment, in both TBR and PCR, they continue to maintain their

share. They have underperformed primarily due to loss in market share in

OEM segment. In PV OE segment, Apollo lost out major share due to

aggressive pricing from competition.

In TBR replacement, MRF has done well to go to leadership position with

Apollo being at No2 with about 28-29% share

Apollo Tyres



Further, competition has been aggressive in exports ramp up as well. Apollo

is now contemplating using direct to market approach in key regions that is

being adopted by competition. They have already shut down their Thailand

office which was catering to exports for the region



They will continue to focus on recovering back lost share in OEM segment

while focussing on maintaining margins, focus on exports and also focus on

TBB segment – which is the highest RoCE segment for them

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



They are seeing a lot of demand in the 2W segment as well. Their

outsourcing partner is not able to supply in line with the demand. Hence,

they are contemplating whether to set up a new capex for 2Ws.



Input costs are expected to decline QoQ in Q2 as crude based raw materials

are down. Also, they would continue to focus on cost control in coming

quarters as well



While market share in 4W replacement segment remains at 37%, the same

in 2W replacement stands at 25%.



Margins have currently been impacted due to the higher input cost as also

higher power cost due to regulation change. The commencement of the

recycling plant is expected to help improve margins in the coming quarters



The total project cost for the 16 GWh capacity for lithium ion cells is INR

Amara Raja



95bn. The first phase of this would include 2.3 GWh capacity that would be

operational by Q12027. The capex for the first phase is expected to be INR

12bn. They will be focusing on NMC 21700 cell initially and then move to LFP

cylindrical cells which will have applications in 2W, light EV and low voltage

stationary applications. They are so far not qualified for PLI incentive.

At 2 GWh capacity, they wont lose money at operating level. They will need

to scale up to 8-10gwh capacity to deliver 8-10% margins

In the Indian EV supply chain, localising electrolytes is one of the low hanging

fruits that the supply chain can work on

Management has indicated that its business remains immune to any direct

tariff impact.

Global CV and tractor OEMs are increasingly looking at India as an export

hub.



Sunbeam is likely to take about a year to move to double-digit margins.



With the new Kothavadi facility, the company is now looking at setting up

Craftsman Automation



CEAT



powertrain capacity at scale. However, in the aluminum business, it still

remains sub-scale. It will need to at least double its size to be relevant in this

segment globally.

The Kothavadi plant is expected to scale up to INR1b in revenue by FY29. The

long-term target is to reach USD100m in revenue from this business. Of this,

about 50% will come from Europe, 25-30% from the US, and the rest from

India.

The current business is well set to sustain a 15% revenue CAGR in the coming

years. It also expects to maintain 1Q margins for the remainder of the fiscal

year.

Capex guidance stands at INR8b for FY26, with a similar investment for FY27

as well.

The Gurgaon plant sale evaluation is on. The time taken is only to maximize

the value.

CEAT’s market share in 2Ws stands at 32%. It aims to sustain its share in this

segment and ramp up its presence in motorcycle steel radials.

Further, its PCR market share has improved to ~15%. It aims to become

among the top two in the PCR segment.

September 2025

Company

ASK Automotive

Takeaway



Input costs are likely to remain stable QoQ in 2Q. It has taken a marginal

price hike (~1%) in the PCR and 2W segments. This is likely to drive some

margin improvement QoQ in Q2.



The standalone entity’s capex plan stands at INR10b for FY26, and

investment in Camso is likely to be under INR500m. Capex for FY27 at

standalone is expected to be at similar levels, with capex earmarked for

Camso at USD30m over next two years.



Its net debt as of 1Q-end stands at INR18b. The payout for Camso in 2Q

stands at INR12b, and it has also paid a dividend of INR1.2b in Q2.



At USD150m revenue, Camso is running at 55% utilization levels.



They supply EV parts to 80% of the organized EV market. Currently major

loss-making business is wheel assembly which is a partnership with Suzuki.

They plan to offload this business in coming years.



Currently ASK automotive has capability to produce drum brakes for 2Ws.

However, if ABS is mandated, than they will be able to produce single

channel ABS, if needed.



The potential 10% GST rate cut can help reduce the market for spares which

is expected to drive growth of 10-12% for ASK in the spares business.



They have maintained their mid teens revenue growth guidance and EBITDA

margin guidance at 20%. Returns are likely to remain stable at 27%.



Capex of INR 4.9bn planned in Rajasthan for a fully automated die casting

plant.



Banks

Advances:

The Bank targets system-level loan growth in FY26, aided by rural

demand, MSME and business banking momentum. Rural is improving with

good monsoons and sowing, while urban remains sluggish. Management

expect FY27 to see stronger outperformance, with festive demand and pay

commission aiding consumption.

Margins and Profitability:

NIMs are under pressure from faster loan repricing

versus deposits, with 2Q likely to be the trough. Recovery is expected from

2HFY26 as term deposits reprice over 15–18 months. Management guides

exit NIMs similar to pre-rate cut levels, supported by efficiency and fee

income recovery.

Deposits Related:

Deposit growth remains healthy, though CASA ratio has

declined to 34% post-merger (vs. 41% pre-merger). The Bank is replacing

borrowings with term deposits, lowering cost pressures. Branch network has

expanded from 5,500 to ~9,700, with productivity trends intact. Cross-sell of

4.2m merged customers continues to scale steadily.

Asset Quality & Provisions:

Asset quality remains resilient, with no stress

visible in SME, unlike peers. Commercial vehicle portfolios show cyclical

slowdown but losses are contained. Industry-wide small-ticket PL concerns

are not reflected materially.

Outlook:

Management does not see a need to slow growth for risk reasons,

with broad-based segments performing well. GST cuts hurt near-term

consumption but are positive medium term. Rural growth, tariff resolution,

pay commission payouts and improving liquidity should drive momentum

into FY27, while RoA delivery remains anchored.



HDFC Bank



September 2025

Company

ICICI Bank

KMB

Takeaway



Advances and Deposits:

The Bank expect growth to be driven by business

banking, mortgages, and MSME, while corporate demand remains selective.

Retail secured continues to expand steadily, with personal loans and cards

guided to revive gradually. Deposit accretion remains healthy, supported by

CASA strength and granular retail term deposits, with management

committed to maintaining a balanced liability profile.



Margins and Profitability:

NIMs moderated at 4.34% due to repo

transmission and mix changes, but management expects stability from

2HFY26 as repricing benefits flow through. The Bank reiterated its focus on

profitability-first growth, with operating leverage and fee income

diversification supporting earnings.



Asset Quality:

Credit cost remain low and near long-term averages. Business

banking normalization is manageable; retail and rural delinquencies are

within expectations. Management has flagged a “watch” cohort, with c.20%

of that pool targeted for near-term exit. Recoveries and granular exposures

underpin a benign outlook across retail, SME, and corporate segments.



Strategic Outlook:

Focus remains on primary-banker relationships, analytics-

led execution, and regional “CEO” accountability. Business banking growth

should normalize from ~30% to ~25% on a high base. Festive demand and

better liquidity support 2HFY26 momentum, while strong liabilities and

disciplined credit costs anchor medium-term RoE in the high teens.



Deposits and Advances:

The Bank guides loan growth at 1.5–2x nominal GDP

(nominal GDP assumed ~9%), led by mortgages, business banking and SME,

with unsecured growth kept measured. MFI book reduced to INR50–60bn;

incremental MFI and retail segments are stabilizing after underwriting

tightening.



Margins and Profitability:

NIM moderated due to repo transmission and

lower unsecured mix, but management expects stability after 2Q as deposit

repricing benefits flow through. The Bank highlighted its focus on profitable

growth, with cost discipline and efficiency gains supporting operating

performance.



Asset Quality:

Credit costs have peaked in 1Q and should decline gradually;

FY27 guidance is ~50–70bps while FY26 will be higher than FY27. MFI stress

has peaked; Card re-issuance began Apr/May 2025 and card and CV stress

should normalise over coming quarters.



Digital and Customer Franchise:

The Bank is expanding its digital-first

franchise; 811 for SMEs and Solitaire for affluent clients; driving acquisition

and deeper engagement. The Bank is fixing its 811-card misstep with secured

cards, focusing on cross-sell and fee income growth while leveraging

analytics to raise customer lifetime value and retention.



Strategic Outlook:

The Bank targets 1.5–2x nominal GDP loan growth,

expects momentum from H2FY26 with festive demand and liquidity, and will

continue adding 150–200 branches annually. Management prioritizes

deposit franchise strength, non-interest income expansion with intent to

keep RoA above 2% while keeping credit discipline.

September 2025

Company

Bank of Baroda

PNB

IndusInd Bank

Takeaway



Deposits and liabilities:

The bank is consciously rebalancing its liabilities by

curbing bulk deposits and focusing on granular CASA growth. Liquidity

remains comfortable, aided by prudent management of funding needs.



Advances and portfolio mix:

Loan growth is guided at 11-13% for FY26, with

RAM driving momentum. MSME expansion remains a key priority, targeted

to reach a 20% share over 2 to 3 years. Agri is expected to grow at 12 to 13%,

while corporate loans should recover meaningfully in 2HFY26.



Margins and profitability:

For core NIMs, 2Q is expected to mark the trough

as repo transmission peaks. Recovery is anticipated from 4Q, supported by

deposit repricing. The bank reiterated its RoA target of >1% in FY26,

underpinned by treasury gains and operating leverage.



Asset quality:

For core NIMs, 2Q is expected to mark the trough as repo

transmission peaks. Recovery is anticipated from 4Q, supported by deposit

repricing. The Bank reiterated its RoA target of >1% in FY26, underpinned by

treasury gains and operating leverage.



Strategic outlook:

Management remains focused on building a stronger

retail and MSME franchise, deepening mid-corporate lending, and sustaining

technology investments, which are set to rise from 10% to ~15% of

opex/capex. Branch expansion to 8,500 to 8,600 is on track, alongside plans

for selective disinvestments in FY27.



Deposits and advances:

PNB targets 11 to 12% loan growth in FY26, led by

Retail, Agri, and MSME. Corporate growth is experiencing moderation due to

lower yields. Deposits are guided to rise 9-10%, with a focus on CASA.



Margins and profitability:

NIM is guided at 2.8-2.9% for FY26, dragged by

repo-linked portfolio share at 47%. High-yield MSME loans should support

margins. However, opex remains a hurdle, with cost-to-income at 55.3%,

targeted below 50% over five years.



Asset quality:

PNB’s asset quality remains robust, with PCR improving to

97%. Recoveries are targeted at INR160b in FY26, nearly 1.8-2x of slippages.

MSME NPAs are at 1.58%. Credit cost is guided below 0.5%, the lowest

among peers.



Capital and liquidity:

Capital remains strong, with CET1 at ~13% and CRAR at

17.5%. ECL norms will have minimal impact, potentially reducing CRAR to

~16.5%. Liquidity remains adequate, ensuring PNB can pursue RAM-led

growth without capital constraints.



Strategic outlook:

PNB is deepening its retail and digital focus, with

initiatives in MSME, housing, and vehicle loans. RoA guidance for FY26 is

0.9% vs the previous guidance of 1% earlier, while above 1% is targeted in

FY27, supported by recoveries, efficiency gains, and digital leverage.



Business and Lending Trends:

The Bank has slowed growth in PL and credit

cards, while traditional retail remains BAU. Corporate book has declined

~20% since March with no fresh disbursements in Q1. Management expects

muted credit growth in FY26, with improvement after 2Q onwards as

liquidity eases.



Microfinance and Vehicle Finance:

MFI trends are better than last year but

below expectations. Sequential de-growth is expected in 2Q, stabilization in

September 2025

Company

Yes Bank

Takeaway

3Q, and recovery in 4Q. Vehicle Finance has not grown in 2–3 years, though

slippages remain contained except in tractors and 2Ws, where borrower

stress is higher.



Deposits Related:

Focus in 1Q was on retaining customers and deposits,

following March events. Bulk deposits of ~INR200b are scheduled to run off.

The Bank carries surplus liquidity of INR500b, while its remains constrained

in lending in MFI and unsecured but provides balance sheet flexibility amid

slower growth.



Margin and profitability Related:

NIM was stable at 3.46%, aided by retail

mix and lower deposit costs, offset by slower MFI and high liquidity. Margins

may face near-term pressure but should stabilize in 2HFY26. Core PPoP has

likely bottomed, with profitability improvement expected from 4Q as

disbursements normalize. Bottom line remains weighed by past write-offs

and ageing provisions, though steady fee income and operating discipline

provide support.



Asset Quality:

Overall asset quality remains under control barring MSME,

with no SMA-1/2 exposure in gems & jewellery (~2% of book). Slippages are

contained in PL and cards, with some stress in MSME expected ahead. MFI

credit costs should trend lower in 2H, while tractor and 2Ws remain watchful

areas.



Governance and Management:

The new CEO has completed a thorough

governance review, with Big-4 audits providing comfort to the board. CFO

and internal audit head positions will be filled within 30 days, while the

CHRO has resigned. Management reiterates profitability-first growth and

stronger governance practices as key priorities.



Deposits and liabilities:

Yes Bank continues to build a granular, retail-led

liability franchise, with branch mobilization as the key driver. Its reliance on

wholesale has reduced, and RIDF balances are gradually coming down,

supporting cost of funds. The bank is not pursuing additional capital

currently, with adequate liquidity and buffers to fund targeted growth.



Advances and portfolio mix:

Loan growth guidance remains at 10-15% for

FY26, with near-term growth anchored at the lower end as the bank

prioritizes quality and cost discipline. Mid-corporate, commercial banking,

and SME are expanding at ~20% and will remain key growth engines. Retail

has seen sluggishness and decline, with limited appetite for auto and home

loans. Personal loans and credit cards are selective focus areas, with

calibrated expansion due to asset quality considerations.



Margins and profitability:

NIM pressures persist, with Sep’25 likely to be the

bottom due to repo-linked repricing. Around 75bp of book was repriced in

Jul’25, weighing on yields. Relief is expected from Dec’25 onward, supported

by RIDF reduction and lower funding costs. Treasury gains will be muted in

2Q. Management remains focused on profitable growth, targeting RoA of

~1% by FY26 exit and 1.5% by FY30.



Asset quality:

Asset quality trends remain steady, with slippages

concentrated in microfinance, small business, and mortgages. Retail

September 2025

Company

AU SFB

IDFC First

Takeaway

unsecured is showing early signs of improvement. Credit costs are guided to

remain low, supported by recoveries and upgrades.



Strategic outlook:

Yes Bank focuses on selective growth, emphasizing

profitability and quality over volume expansion. Disbursements are gaining

pace with stronger momentum expected in 2HFY26. Credit cards are poised

for high growth in line with industry recovery, while digital and AI-led

initiatives will continue to strengthen the franchise.



Deposits and Cost of Funds:

The Bank cut SA rates in July and reduced TD

rates by 1%, easing liability cost pressure. Funding cost pass-through will

take two quarters. Retail-led liabilities remain resilient, and deposit traction

is supported by expanding franchise and southern state distribution.



Advances and Portfolio Mix:

Management is focused on maintaining a

predominantly secured book, while MFI and credit cards are being stabilized

after recent stress. The Bank remains selective in MSME, growing slower

than industry to preserve credit discipline.



Margins and Profitability:

NIM moderated to 5.4% due to repo transmission,

liquidity, and lower unsecured mix, but management expects 2Q to mark the

bottom, with recovery from 2H as funding cost normalizes. The bank

reiterated its RoA target of 1.8% by FY27, supported by margin recovery,

stronger fee income, and efficiency gains.



Asset Quality:

Credit card stress peaked in June, while MFI collections, after

a weak April–May, are improving sequentially. Festive-led disruption in

August may temper recovery, but 2Q should mark the bottom. Housing and

MSME portfolios remain stable, while VF stress is limited to LCV/MHCV (~1%

of book).



Strategic Transition:

Universal bank status should drive operating efficiency

and cost reduction without materially altering the business profile. Retail

banking remains the focus, with no intention to build a large corporate

franchise.



Deposits and Liabilities:

The Bank continues to build a granular, retail-led

deposit base with retail LCR at 62–63% (up from 12% in five years).

Management remains focused on sustainable liabilities, avoiding bulk

deposits, and strengthening its franchise to support growth while keeping

the CD ratio near 90–91%.



Advances and Portfolio Mix:

Loan growth remains broad-based across retail

products, with measured expansion in wholesale. The Bank has minimal

direct or indirect exposure to exports, limiting tariff impact. Corporate loan

mix is expected to rise over time, lowering reliance on DSAs, while urban

customers remain the primary focus.



Margins and Profitability:

NIM guidance stands at 5.8% for Q4FY26, aided by

lower cost of funds and repricing benefits. The Bank has guided for a C/I ratio

of ~60% over the medium term, with technology and operating leverage

positioned as key enablers to drive sustainable earnings momentum.



Asset Quality:

GNPA and NNPA remain well contained, supported by

prudent underwriting and recoveries. Management reiterated its stance of

avoiding risk without adequate reward. The “2-1-2” framework (GNPA 2%,

September 2025

Company

Federal Bank

Bandhan Bank

Takeaway

NNPA 1%, credit cost 2%) remains intact, with no major asset quality shocks

anticipated.



Digital and Customer Franchise:

The Bank continues to invest in its mobile

app, positioning it as among the best in the market, with hyper-

personalisation features and industry-leading UI. Digital channels are driving

deeper engagement, cross-sell, and acquisition, reinforcing the Bank’s

positioning in the urban retail customer segment.



Strategic Outlook:

With CD ratio now at ~93% the Bank is better placed to

grow advances while continuing to repay legacy bonds. Management

remains focused on profitable growth, disciplined risk-reward, and medium-

term RoA expansion through liabilities strength, digital capabilities, and

operating efficiency.



Deposits and liabilities:

Federal Bank continues to strengthen its liability

base with a sharper branch-led model. CASA growth is being driven by

initiatives like auto-sweeps and dedicated RMs, while CA mobilization is a

key thrust. Management expects deposit growth of 12-14%, in line with

credit growth.



Advances and portfolio mix:

Loan growth is guided at 12-15% for FY26, with

stronger momentum from 3Q. Commercial banking, LAP, gold loans, and

mid-corporates are expanding at a healthy pace, while mortgages and auto

are deliberately slowed. New businesses like tractor finance and real estate

lending are being scaled cautiously.



Margins and profitability:

NIMs are expected to bottom out in 2Q with a 5-

8bp decline, before recovering in 2H. Management guided to an exit NIM of

~3.1%. RoA is expected to reach 1.1% in 4QFY26, supported by mix

improvement, fee income, and operating leverage.



Asset quality:

Stress remains concentrated in MFI and MSME, though

slippages have been moderating since May’25. Management reiterated FY26

credit cost guidance at ~55bp, with expectations of further improvement if

recoveries sustain. Underwriting quality in secured segments like LAP and

housing continues to anchor stability.



Strategic outlook:

The bank remains focused on mid-yielding segments with

better risk-return, alongside fee income expansion, led by gold loans and

credit cards. Non-sales activities have been removed from branches,

sharpening their focus on deposits and retail lending. Management expects

earnings momentum to accelerate from 2H with improved margins and

growth visibility.



Advances and portfolio mix:

Loan growth is tepid as EEB revival is taking

longer. Management guides 15 to 17% credit growth in FY26, with non-EEB

above 20%. Focus remains on secured retail and housing, targeting a 55-58%

secured mix over two years.



Deposits:

Deposit growth continues to outpace credit, led by retail term

deposits. CASA remains under pressure, but management aims to improve

ratios through deeper engagement. Around 3 to 4% of MFI customers have

liability relationships with the bank.

September 2025

Company

RBL Bank

Equitas SFB

Takeaway



Margins and profitability:

NIMs are expected to contract 50 to 60bp over

two years due to the secured mix shift. Steeper pressure is expected in 2Q

amid the repo cut of 75bp coming into effect, with relief anticipated from 3Q

as TD repricing benefits flow through. Fee income improvement should

provide some partial offset.



Asset quality:

Asset quality trends are steady, with Bihar and Gujarat

portfolios performing well. Stress is limited to certain UP districts. Retail

secured segments like housing remain stable, while PL and two-wheelers

show higher delinquencies. Blended credit cost guidance stands at ~1.6%.



Strategic outlook:

Bandhan is pivoting towards secured and retail-driven

growth while expanding geographically. Housing, credit cards, and DSA-led

retail distribution are key priorities. Management remains confident in

capital adequacy and targets RoA of 1.8% by FY27 as the transition

strengthens.



Deposits and funding cost:

The Bank cut SA rates by 1%, with further

moderation expected as high-cost liabilities reprice. Deposit growth is guided

at 11–12%, with improving accretion in SA. Management expects cost of

deposits to ease from 6.5% in Q1 to ~6% by Q4.



Loan growth and mix:

Overall advances are guided to grow 13–15%, driven

by 25–27% growth in secured retail and selective wholesale expansion (3–4%

per quarter). MFI should grow 7–10%, while the card business focuses on

higher limits and tighter models to balance risk and profitability.



Margins and Profitability:

NIMs are expected to recover gradually,

improving marginally in Q2 and meaningfully in Q3–Q4, with exit levels of

4.7–4.8%. Margin recovery, alongside easing deposit costs and stable fee

income, will be the biggest driver of RoA expansion toward ~1% by 4QFY26.



Asset Quality:

MFI accounted for most Q1 slippages, but sequential

improvement is expected from Q2. Card collections are showing early

traction, with costs set to reduce in 2H. Credit costs are guided at 1.6–1.8%

for FY26, with slippages trending down through Q3 and Q4.



Strategic Outlook:

Management reiterated medium-term growth of 15–18%,

supported by secured lending and deposit granularity. Capital consumption

should remain ~50bps in FY26, Cost efficiencies from lower collection

expenses should drive C/I ratio toward 64–65% in the medium term.



Deposits and liabilities:

Equitas is steadily improving its liability franchise,

with retail deposits forming the bulk of the book and wholesale deposits

capped at ~20%. CASA is being scaled with a targeted CA ratio of 10-12%.

Cost of funds is expected to decline 80-90bps by FY26-end, aided by lower SA

and TD rates.



Advances and portfolio mix:

Loan growth is guided at 15-16% in FY26, driven

by secured retail, housing, SME, and used CV segments. MFI exposure will be

capped at 11-12% of the book, while micro-LAP vertical is being developed to

diversify within retail. Management continues to consciously reduce new CV,

given asset quality challenges.



Margins and profitability:

NIMs have moderated with lower MFI share, but

Equitas expects stability with gradual benefits from lower funding costs in

September 2025

Company

Andromeda

Takeaway

2H. Normalized provisions are guided at INR10-12b for FY26, with credit cost

targeted at ~1.25% in the long term. Despite upfront buffers, the bank

expects profitability to normalize from 2H.



Asset quality and credit costs:

1Q saw elevated provisioning as the bank

strengthened buffers and aligned with universal bank eligibility

requirements. Credit costs are expected to ease from 2Q onward as stress in

Karnataka stabilizes. Collection efficiency has improved, with 600-700 cases

recovered monthly, while guardrails in MFI and SBL segments are tightening.



Strategic outlook:

Equitas remains on track to apply for a universal bank

license in Mar’26, with no change in its core model of serving underserved

communities. Management focuses on scaling secured retail, SME, and

vehicle finance while gradually reducing MFI dependency. Exit RoA of 1% for

FY26 is reaffirmed, with aspirations of sustained growth and improved

efficiency thereafter.



Distribution platform:

Andromeda disbursed INR1.1t in FY25, leveraging a

5,000+ employee base and 500+ branches across 1,500+ locations. With

180+ lending partners, it remains one of the largest loan distribution

platforms in India, combining lending, wealth management, and insurance

offerings.



Housing market:

Housing finance reflects a clear divergence. Affordable HLs

grew 10-12% YoY in 1QFY26, while overall HL growth was muted at ~3%. In

Tier-1 cities, average ticket sizes are rising, but file volumes are declining,

suggesting affordability constraints.



Personal loan:

PL disbursements rose 18% YoY in 1QFY26, with 75% of flows

in the INR3–20 lakh range. Ticket sizes are inching up alongside 50bp to 70bp

yield expansion. Despite this, net credit loss remains below 1% for large

banks, keeping risks contained.



MSME credit stress emerging:

MSME lending is showing strain, particularly

across southern geographies, where lenders have tightened underwriting.

Larger-ticket business loans dominate, ~68% above INR20 lakh; reflecting a

credit shift toward better-rated borrowers and slower growth at the smaller-

ticket end.



Price sensitivity and BTs:

Balance transfers account for 20-25% of flows and

typically rise 8-10% in easing cycles. Even with HL rates at ~7.3%, market

sentiment remains subdued, but activity is expected to pick up as rates

approach 7% around Diwali.



Double-digit trajectory:

Post muted 2HFY25, LIC expects double-digit APE

INSURANCE

growth in FY26, led by strong ULIP growth owing to a lower base, single-digit

annuity growth, and double-digit growth in individual business.

LIC



Product mix and persistency driving margin upside:

Margins are expected to

expand compared to FY25, driven by: 1) a strategic tilt toward non-par

savings, 2) higher minimum sum assured improving persistency, 3) reduced

upfront commission, and 4) enhanced trailing incentives to improve

persistency.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Agency channel: Transforming for scale & productivity:

LIC’s 1.4m+ agent

network is undergoing large-scale transformation. Standardized training,

performance-linked benefits, and a new agent app for lead-to-claim

management are aimed at improving recruitment quality, retention, and

long-term productivity. Commissions have been increased for the 4th and

5th years, and bonuses are awarded if policies cross the 5th year, all aimed

at boosting persistency.



Other growth and improvement areas:

Banca channels are expanding with a

focus on increasing PSU partners. Digital direct sales are scaling up, with

protection products primarily sold through this channel. Despite competitive

pressure, ULIPs have gained strong traction, supported by the launch of four

new products.



Product mix:

Savings form ~40% of the business; the non-par share is

expected to rise to mid-20s by the end of the year. ULIPs remain steady in

the 30% range, while par products remain in the 25-30% range with

improved persistency and margins.



Distribution mix:

Proprietary channels deliver superior quality; HDFC Bank

drives ~45-50% of the business (~80% of banca), but agency is expected to

outpace banca growth over the next 3-5 years.

HDFC LIFE



IFRS & Composite License:

IFRS adoption is expected over the next 2-3 years,

with implications including deferral of expenses/revenues and mark-to-

market treatment of assets/liabilities. HDFC Life has also readied a

composite license blueprint, targeting long-term critical illness and other

products.



GST implications:

Clarity on reinsurance GST is awaited; ITC could lower

premiums, though demand impact may be limited to sum assured increase

rather than the number of lives.



Profitable growth above all:

Despite a deterioration in industry combined

ICICI Lombard

ratios, the company is improving its own underwriting performance (2.7% of

the industry's underwriting losses) while delivering outsized profitability

(22% of industry profits vs. 8.7% premium share). This underscores a clear

focus on sustainable RoE in the 18-20% range.



Motor – Disciplined amid intense competition:

The company maintains its

top position in motor, but is resisting pricing aggression from PSUs and some

private players, which has resulted in a slight market share loss recently. The

decline in the industry combined ratio to 110-115% will make it profitable for

the company to harness more opportunities and achieve market share gains

in this segment.



Health – Fastest growing, structurally mid-teen RoE:

Retail health is scaling

rapidly, supported by stronger fraud control and cashless claims network.

The health loss ratio has been stable YoY, with management maintaining a

guidance of 65-70% loss ratio, resulting in ~ 100% combined ratio. The

segment is expected to generate RoE in mid-teens.



Improving distribution capabilities:

The IL Take Care app is reducing

distribution costs and enhancing cross-sell opportunities for retail customers.

September 2025

Company

ICICI Pru Life Insurance

Takeaway

The company's strong integration with OEMs for EVs has resulted in a

dominant market share with respect to EV insurance (PV at 24-25%, 2W at

31-32%).



Steady and diversified growth trajectory:

IPRU Life expects non-par and par

products to drive growth as demand in ULIPs has been weak compared to

last year. While competition in the non-par segment has become aggressive,

the irrational exuberance has subsided. Revival is expected in single-

premium annuities as FD rates have reduced.



Protection – Large, untapped opportunity:

With only ~12-13% population

coverage (~5-6 crore lives), protection remains severely under-penetrated.

Growth is expected to be triggered by event-driven demand (e.g., COVID)

and reinforced by brand presence, providing a long-term expansion runway.



Cost discipline:

Margins are underpinned by disciplined spending and

calibrated channel economics. Cost ratios have stabilized over the past few

quarters, with minimal differences in costs across channels.



Variance assumptions – Mortality and persistency focus:

Mortality (can

range between 30% and 400% of the industry mortality table), persistency,

and expense assumptions remain the main drivers of EV variance. Diversity

in business lines increases volatility, while more homogeneous portfolios see

limited fluctuations. Recent improvements in persistency (e.g., March 2023

cohort) and better claims management reduce variability in outcomes.



24-25% VNB margin guidance:

A favorable yield curve, a tilt towards

protection/annuity, and a calibrated ULIP moderation position Max to

sustain VNB margins of 24-25% in the near term, while providing headroom

to reinvest excess margin into growth.



Growth engines beyond Axis:

While Axis Bank remains core (65-70% counter

share in the bank), the company is also focused on scaling prop channels

(>20% growth), onboarding new banca partners, and expanding through e-

commerce—de-risking distribution and driving absolute VNB expansion.

Max Financial Services



Product rebalancing for structural strength:

Strategic optimization in ULIPs

Star Health

(especially in Axis Bank from 60% to 52% contribution) and harnessing non-

par and protection opportunity, alongside annuity momentum, will

strengthen the quality of growth and margin resilience.



Aspiration to improve presence:

The company is keen to enter the health

insurance space through a coinsurance model with a SAHI, should the

composite license fall through. A strong online presence (one-third of

industry e-policies) and brand realignment with Axis underline Max’s

ambition to become a consumer-trusted, digitally enabled insurer.



Repricing to improve loss ratio:

Repricing and migration of quality

customers to low-loss-ratio products are expected to drive the loss ratio to

~67% over the medium term. The benefits of recent repricing will phase in

over 18–24 months, supporting a combined ratio target of ~97% by FY28.



Large growth runway:

The underpenetrated industry reflects a significant

headroom for growth. With average ticket sizes rising, increasing sum

assured, and fresh business in newly launched products like Super Star

witnessing strong traction, the company’s growth runway remains robust.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Agency productivity:

The agency remains the core growth engine, with the

aim to hire 75,000-80,000 agents annually. Productivity improves with

vintage, supporting strong fresh business momentum and improving renewal

economics over time.



Regulatory push towards transparency:

Claim-based discounting has been a

game-changer for customer acceptance and retention. Industry-wide efforts

on hospital empanelment, treatment protocols, and billing transparency are

likely to ease medical inflation pressures and structurally improve claims

management over time.



Growth aspiration with discipline:

Niva Bupa is aiming 20–25% CAGR over

the next 5 years, with IFRS combined ratios guided at 98–99% by FY28–29,

translating into mid-to-high-teen RoEs.



Diverse distribution:

Digital channels (D2C + brokers) contribute 20–25% of

business. 25% of new business is through porting, highlighting brand pull and

customer trust.



Claims management:

Bupa’s global expertise in claims analytics and

Niva Bupa

management enhances underwriting prudence. Fraud is concentrated in

higher-ticket claims, but discounting features (step count, claim-based

rewards) are strengthening retention and improving portfolio quality.



Regulatory evolution:

IRDAI’s push for common hospital empanelment

could structurally improve transparency in pricing and treatment protocols.

While cashless suspension by Max Hospitals is a negotiation issue, Niva is

proactively managing customer experience, showcasing resilience against

short-term disruptions.



Stable near-term outlook amid uncertain macro:

Shriram Finance maintains

NBFC

a cautious yet balanced stance as the operating environment remains largely

status quo. The company does not anticipate significant deterioration in

asset quality or growth, though a strong festive season could provide some

recovery momentum. Management acknowledged that the macro-outlook,

including the potential impact of the global trade war and subdued rural

realizations due to lower food price inflation, introduces elements of

uncertainty. Nevertheless, steady performance across core segments

ensures resilience in the near term.



Steady growth across core segments:

The company remains confident of

Shriram Finance

sustaining 15-17% AUM growth over the next three years, driven by strength

in used CVs, MSME lending, PVs, and gold loans. Its dominant 31% market

share in used vehicle financing provides a strong platform to target 37-38%

share in the medium term. MSME growth, guided at 20–-2%, is being

pursued selectively, with a focus on cash flow-based underwriting and

calibrated exposure, particularly in non-manufacturing segments. Ticket size

moderation after GST rate cuts may temper growth metrics, but slightly

higher volume growth can offset that to a great extent.



Margin expansion and operating leverage:

The company expects NIM

expansion of 40-50bp over the next 2-3 quarters, led by improved portfolio

CoB and normalization of excess liquidity. Operating efficiency is also set to

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

improve, with the cost-to-income ratio targeted below 28% over the next 2-3

years, supported by reduced marketing expenses and amortization of

intangibles concluding in FY27. Importantly, credit costs are guided to

remain below 2.2% of the loan book, reinforcing confidence in sustaining

RoA of 3.1-3.2% or higher, even in a modest economic growth environment.



Strong housing and retail momentum:

ABCL’s housing business has scaled to

22 cities with 175 branches, achieving organic growth without portfolio

buyouts. It is now among the top three players in incremental

disbursements. The NBFC division is targeting 25% CAGR over the next three

years, driven by personal, consumer, and MSME loans, while maintaining

disciplined growth in its corporate portfolio.



Profitability and capital optimization:

The company is on track to improve

Aditya Birla Capital

RoA to 2.45-2.5% for the NBFC and 2.0-2.1% for the HFC by FY26, aided by

operating leverage, controlled credit costs, and a 20bp reduction in CoB after

the Feb’25 rate cut. While the HFC will need incremental capital for growth,

the NBFC remains self-sufficient, supported by robust profitability and

dividends from the AMC business.



Digital scale and strategic partnerships:

ABCL is leveraging digital

partnerships with platforms like GPay and PhonePe, driving cost-efficient

customer acquisition with yields of 16-17% after fees. With 85–87% pin code

coverage and a hub-and-spoke branch model, the company is well-

positioned to deepen its retail presence while maintaining risk discipline and

sustainable returns.



Muted near-term demand but deferred, not lost:

Demand recovery

HDB financial services

expected from mid-August has been delayed, particularly in unsecured

business loans and CV segments, due to both factual and sentimental

factors. Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with customers deferring

purchases despite good liquidity. Management expects a pick-up in demand

over the next 3-6 months, aided by GST rate cuts, festive season sales, and

pent-up demand, especially in vehicles.



Asset quality and portfolio dynamics:

Asset quality stress, particularly in

new CV loans, is being managed with a sharper focus on the used CV

segment, where performance remains healthy. Gold loans, though a small

share (~0.8%), are benefiting from policy harmonization. Management

remains clear on maintaining NIM discipline, prioritizing profitability over

aggressive growth even as opportunities expand.



Positioned for scalable growth:

HDB is prepared to handle a surge in

volumes during the festive season, supported by robust operational

infrastructure and improved credit discipline. Enterprise lending continues to

show steady traction, and reduced over-leveraging among customers

strengthens the quality of the borrower base. The company remains

optimistic that macroeconomic clarity and GST-driven demand triggers will

catalyze growth without compromising asset quality or margins.

LTFH



AUM growth and business mix:

LTFH expects to deliver 22% AUM growth in

FY26, supported by a greater tilt toward prime and secured customers. It is

September 2025

Company

Piramal Enterprises

Takeaway

steadily accelerating disbursements in its microfinance portfolio and is

targeting a 60:40 secured-to-unsecured customer mix. Project Cyclopse is on

track for completion in personal loans and SME segments by Dec’25, with

meaningful benefits expected to flow through in 4QFY26 as the portfolio

built under this framework gains scale.



Asset quality and credit costs:

Management aims to contain credit costs

within the 2.2-2.5% range by the end of FY26. Collection trends remain

stable across geographies, with no major stress pockets being observed. The

company remains focused on sustaining asset quality improvements as the

portfolio shifts toward a more secured mix.



Margins and Profitability:

LTFH is targeting NIM+fees in the 10-10.5% range.

While overall yields are expected to moderate given the increasing share of

prime and secured customers, risk-adjusted yields are likely to improve. The

company also continues its efforts to drive operating efficiencies and reduce

opex ratios, thereby supporting profitability. Gold loans remain a high-

margin product for LTFH. To capitalize on this, LTFH plans to significantly

expand its gold loan franchise by adding around 200 branches by the end of

FY26, enhancing both reach and profitability.



Strong growth across core segments:

PEL continues to deliver robust growth

across its key businesses, with housing, LAP, and personal loans (PL)

performing strongly. 5MFY26 has been among the best periods for both

growth and profitability, with AUM expected to grow over 30% this year. PEL

has not reduced its PLR since the repo rate cuts began. While PLs have

experienced some NIM pressure (recently) due to lower-priced offerings,

profitability across most retail segments remains healthy.



Strategic digital lending focus:

The company has consolidated its digital

partnerships from 19 to 10, enabling deeper integration and improved

efficiency. Digital lending is increasingly seen as a customer acquisition

funnel, similar to how consumer durables drove growth for the country's

largest NBFC. With FLDG structures now standardized, digital lending is

growing confidently, and embedded finance already contributes 40% of total

cross-sell volumes, strengthening customer stickiness and expanding reach.



Optimizing retail and expanding reach:

Retail now contributes 85% of AUM,

with housing and LAP making up 60-65% and unsecured loans targeted to

scale to 30% (vs ~22% now). The company achieved retail breakeven in Jul'24

and continues to improve productivity, paving the way for 75 new branch

openings starting late 3QFY26 or early 4Q. Focused on semi-urban markets—

cities ranked between the top 100 and 1000—Piramal is positioning itself

uniquely while also planning new gold loan offerings to diversify its retail

portfolio.



Profitability and credit quality outlook:

The company expects RoA

improvements driven by opex optimization, improved fee amortization, and

better product mix. Sustainable credit costs are expected to remain at 1.8-

2.0%, with housing credit costs at ~60bp. Any potential credit rating upgrade

would further enhance funding competitiveness, particularly in larger

markets. For FY26, PAT guidance remains at INR13-15b, including ~INR2b

September 2025

Company

PNB HF

Takeaway

expected from the legacy book, supported by ongoing recoveries and

deferred consideration from the sale of Piramal Imaging expected in 2HFY26.



Strategic growth and portfolio evolution:

PNBHF remains focused on scaling

its affordable housing segment, with the formal-to-informal mix shifting from

70:30 to 60:40, which is expected to lift yields over time. Expansion into

emerging and affordable markets with new branches will support growth

above industry levels. Disbursements in the affordable segment are targeted

at ~INR40b in FY26, reinforcing its momentum in this high-potential

business.



Disciplined underwriting and risk management:

The company’s rule-engine-

based underwriting framework and vertically integrated credit structure

have strengthened its portfolio quality, with NPAs at just 0.47% (six months

lagged basis) and expected to stabilize near 1% by FY26. While there is some

stress in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu due to recent ordinances, management

views it as manageable and non-alarming. A dedicated collection

infrastructure of 230+ employees and call center support further underpins

robust asset quality.



Improving cost structure and strategic focus:

Funding costs continue to

improve, with the incremental CoF lower by 30-40bp and the overall

portfolio CoB down by 15-20bp, creating room for margin expansion.

Leadership transition is underway, with a new MD & CEO expected to be

finalized well before the completion of tenure of the current MD/CEO. This

will ensure continuity in strategy execution. With calibrated growth in

construction finance and steady traction in affordable housing, PNBHF

remains committed to delivering sustainable growth and improving

profitability over the medium term.



Calibrated growth with portfolio repricing:

Five Star is maintaining a

Five Star

measured growth strategy, with disbursement growth expected to remain

flat in the near term before picking up from the next quarter. It is gradually

increasing its focus on slightly higher-ticket loans (INR500k-INR1m) to reduce

exposure to customers with high overlap in the MFI segment, particularly in

the sub-INR300k category. Full portfolio repricing to ~22% yields is expected

by FY28, supporting healthy long-term profitability even as the behavioral

tenor of loans remains at ~4.5 years.



Strengthened collections and asset quality:

The company has significantly

bolstered its collections infrastructure, adding legal resources and expanding

its collections team. Credit costs are expected to normalize at 1.2-1.3% over

the next 6-8 quarters, reflecting both portfolio seasoning and more cautious

origination. Importantly, income levels of borrowers remain intact, and

collection efficiency remains stable despite a muted operating environment.



Strategic diversification and outlook:

It is preparing to diversify into

affordable housing, targeting yields of 16-18% and ticket sizes of INR600k–

INR800k, with a goal of this segment comprising ~15% of AUM in the next

three years. While RoA in this segment may be slightly lower, the business is

expected to be margin-accretive overall, given minimal incremental

infrastructure requirements. With a guided ~25% AUM CAGR and disciplined

September 2025

Company

Aavas Financiers

Takeaway

risk controls, Five Star remains well-positioned to compound growth while

maintaining superior return metrics over the medium term.



Strong disbursement momentum and regional expansion:

The company

shared that the cumulative disbursements in Jul-Aug’25 have already

exceeded the total disbursements in 1QFY26, suggestive of strong business

momentum. In Karnataka, the login-to-sanction ratio was consciously

reduced in 1QFY26 to 29% (from 35-40% earlier) to identify and address

process gaps. Rajasthan continues to be a key growth driver, contributing

30% of the branch network, with an AUM exceeding INR65b and the lowest

GNPA levels. Growth in this region is supported by improved highway

connectivity and rising real estate prices. The company opened 25 new

branches in 4Q and plans to add 10 more in Tamil Nadu this quarter, with a

strategy to go deeper in TN during FY26, followed by expansion into AP,

Telangana, and Uttar Pradesh in the coming years.



Stable asset quality and prudent underwriting:

Asset quality remains stable

across regions, with collections in Aug’25 improving both MoM and YoY.

While Madhya Pradesh (MP) collections remained slightly weaker, its

performance in MP is still better than that of its peers. The company

maintains a disciplined approach to credit underwriting, emphasizing cash-

flow-based assessments and physical income verification for customers to

mitigate risk. It continues to prioritize asset quality and profitability over

aggressive growth, as reflected in its conservative stance. Aavas has written

off only ~INR200m over the past five years, underscoring its prudent credit

management practices.



Driving operational efficiency and cost optimization:

The company aims to

bring opex-to-assets below 3% (from the current 3.3%) over the next two

years through productivity improvements, digitization, and process

optimization. Initiatives such as reducing manual work, streamlining

documentation, and e-signing loan agreements are expected to improve

efficiency. Despite high churn in Sales employees, credit underwriting

processes remain strong and consistent.



Stable margins and strengthened funding profile:

Margins remain well-

protected, with spreads at 5.1% in 1Q. Management continues to guide for a

spread of ~5%, emphasizing that Aavas will not compromise NIM in pursuit

of growth. A potential credit rating upgrade could enable the company to

raise liabilities from insurance companies, further strengthening its liability

profile, even as other funding sources remain readily available to the

company.



Sustained growth with improving spreads:

HomeFirst remains on track to

Home first

deliver 28% AUM growth in FY26, aided by steady disbursements and strong

demand across its core affordable housing markets. The recent 25bp decline

in CoB and disciplined pricing strategy should drive spread expansion in 2Q

and 3QFY26, with further back-book repricing expected once funding costs

decline by 40-50bp. Co-lending, which currently forms ~3% of the book, is

expected to scale up to ~10% over the next 2-3 years, enhancing productivity

and portfolio diversification without diluting RoA.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Disciplined risk management and asset quality:

HomeFirst continues to

maintain a prudent risk framework, with bounce rates and collections well

managed by its RM-led structure, keeping the need for a separate collection

team minimal. Exposure to sectors impacted by US tariffs, such as gems and

jewelry, textiles, and chemicals, remains modest (INR1-1.5b total exposure).

While underwriting in these geographies has turned cautious, management

does not foresee a material credit cost impact unless conditions worsen

significantly, in which case PCR buffers may be increased.



Focused strategy and long-term growth aspiration:

With operations

concentrated in 13 states, including key markets like Gujarat, Maharashtra,

Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, HomeFirst plans to scale up AUM to INR200b by

FY27 and INR350-360b by FY30, implying a 23-24% CAGR. Its strategy of

targeting Tier 1-3 cities, leveraging connector channels, and offering a 48-

hour turnaround continues to differentiate its value proposition. Supported

by a constructive regulatory environment and disciplined execution,

HomeFirst remains well-positioned to deliver consistent growth and superior

returns over the medium term.



Core business and long-term outlook:

The company’s core products include

small-ticket LAP (ST LAP), medium-ticket LAP (MT LAP), gold loans, and

unsecured business loans, with gold loans and ST LAP acting as the primary

contributors to RoA. These products are still in the early stages of growth,

offering significant untapped potential, particularly across Tier 2, 3, and 4

towns. The company plans to open 100-150 new gold loan branches in FY26,

of which 30-35 will be co-located multi-product branches, to further drive

gold tonnage and expand overall AUM. It is targeting ~25% AUM growth,

with FY26 expected to be an investment-heavy year due to branch expansion

and investments in strengthening collections infrastructure. From FY27

onwards, operating leverage benefits are expected to kick in, leading to a

potential improvement in RoA.



Leadership & strategic reset:

Following the resignation of the CEO and CBO

Fedbank Financial Services Limited

in Nov’24, Mr. Parvez Mulla took over as CEO and initiated a strategic reset.

He brought in a new CBO (formerly the CRO) and implemented leadership

changes to strengthen risk management and collections. The company also

tightened credit metrics and reorganized collections into product-specific

verticals to address operational challenges and enhance efficiency.



Improving asset quality and collections trends:

Collections in ST LAP were

previously under-resourced, leading to stress in asset quality. To address

this, the company deployed 300-400 dedicated employees to manage

collections more effectively. Monthly disbursals in ST LAP, which had dipped

to INR200m post Nov’24, have now recovered to INR1b, signaling a revival in

both collections and business confidence. The company is targeting a

reduction in credit costs to 1% in FY26, down from 1.8% in FY25, which is

expected to potentially improve RoA by ~80bp.



Anchor-led model driving zero NPAs:

SG Finserv, promoted by APL Apollo,

SG Finserv

has built a unique anchor-backed supply chain financing model that ensures

disciplined credit and zero NPAs to date. By channeling dealer payments

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

directly to anchors like Tata Motors, Vedanta, M&M, Arcelor Mittal, and

Kajaria Tiles (and many more) and enforcing strict eligibility criteria and stop-

supply arrangements, the company has disbursed ~INR460b cumulatively

without a single loss, with only minor, weather-related payment delays

observed (recently) by customers who are based out of Western and

Northern regions.



Strong financials and operational efficiency:

With an AUM of ~INR26b as of

Jun'25, SG Finserv operates with attractive spreads of ~4.65% (CoB ~8.15%,

yield ~12.8%) and lean operating costs of 70-75bp, driving a ~13% RoE.

Supported by an equity base of INR10b and a recent INR4.5b equity infusion,

leverage remains comfortable at ~2x. The average loan tenor is ~36 days and

high utilization levels (~75-80%) support strong liquidity management and

portfolio churn.



Tech-enabled growth and market positioning:

Proprietary AI-driven risk

tools and deep ERP integrations with anchor partners enable real-time

monitoring and fast turnaround times, boosting efficiency and scaling

potential. While facing competition from Aditya Birla Capital, Tata Capital,

Hero Fincorp, and Chola, SG Finserv’s anchor-led model and disciplined

underwriting offer a strong moat. With improving funding costs and stable

asset quality, NIMs are set to expand, supporting sustained profitability and

growth momentum.



VF: Operational environment has not improved in the last few months:

IKF’s vehicle finance segment continues to face strain, with GNPA levels

stable but not improving meaningfully since Jun'25. Discretionary spending

remains muted, and while 2H-Jul'25 showed some pickup in WayBills,

momentum faded post the GST rate cut announcement. Despite these

macro pressures, IKF’s strong presence in the LCV, HCV, and SCV segments

and its efficient turnaround times (TATs) help it maintain a competitive edge,

particularly among SRTOs and fleet operators.



VF: Well-positioned with its strong operating model:

Operationally, IKF

IKF Finance

benefits from a digitized loan journey, enabling quick processing with

minimal manual intervention, and a robust sourcing mix of 60% direct and

40% broker-driven originations. Its focus on sales-driven collections and

structured risk monitoring ensures discipline in portfolio quality. With cost of

borrowings at ~10%, which is expected to moderate to ~9.5% by FY26, and

incremental CoF at 8.75%, IKF is well-positioned to sustain margins despite

market headwinds.



HFC: Growth with controlled risk:

IKF’s housing finance arm, operational

since 2017, has built a niche in affordable housing and LAP with an average

ticket size of INR1.5m and yields of 14% in HL and 18.5% in LAP. The business

focuses heavily on self-construction loans (>70% of the book) and caters

primarily to self-employed customers (~70% of the portfolio). This segment

benefits from efficient disbursement cycles—average financial approvals are

done within 7 days, and complete login-to-disbursement TAT is around 14

days.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Weakness in customer cashflows is leading to higher NPAs but not

necessarily higher credit losses:

While the book is stable, cash flow stress

among borrowers has increased, leading to longer resolution timelines,

especially where SARFAESI processes are required. However, a diversified

funding mix—predominantly bank borrowings and 15% NHB borrowings—

and stable CoB (~10%) provide balance sheet strength. This positions IKF

Housing Finance to grow steadily while maintaining risk discipline.



Strong growth with repeat borrowers:

KreditBee derives ~80% of

KreditBee

disbursements from repeat customers, supported by strong organic

acquisition and strategic partnerships. With 43 lakh active users and strong

reach in non-metro markets (82% of customers), it remains well-positioned

for sustainable expansion.



Robust risk controls, healthy asset quality:

Advanced data-driven

underwriting and a strong in-house collection team keep asset quality stable,

with on-time payments at ~93% and credit costs at 3.5%. This disciplined

approach strengthens portfolio resilience.



High profitability and niche positioning:

Delivering RoA of 5.3% and RoE of

16%, KreditBee benefits from ~25% yields, competitive funding, and efficient

co-lending partnerships. Its focus on “mid-India” borrowers ensures growth

with limited direct competition.



Product Launches:

The company is expanding its presence in GIFT City with

CAPITAL MARKETS

the upcoming launch a new product (4 launched already), while on the

alternatives side it plans to introduce a private credit fund along with few

more fund-of-funds (FoFs).



Commission rationalisation:

It was last implemented in Aug’24, with no new

plans to further rationalise in the new term.

HDFC AMC



Yields:

Management guided for equity yields to decline due to the impact of

telescopic pricing, though this pressure is expected to be partially mitigated

by a favorable shift in the asset mix towards equities.



SIF:

The AMC has opted for approvals to launch products in this segment, but

the rollout remains contingent on investor appetite and market conditions.

Management is taking a wait-and-watch stance while continuing active

internal pilots and experimentation



Expiry shift unlocking volumes:

With early traction in Sensex new expiry day

BSE

contracts, growing liquidity in the monthly/next-week contracts, and traders

adapting new theta-based strategies over the next few months, premium

quality and depth are expected to improve further.



Expanding participation base:

Bank Nifty traders and retail traders have

started migrating into Sensex contracts. There was a significant boost in

volumes after the end of the Bank Nifty weekly expiry contracts. The focus is

to reduce small-ticket expiry day participants and obtain more stable, quality

trading participants.



Regulatory balancing act:

The SEBI’s intraday OI limits and push for longer-

tenure contracts are shaping the market construct. While these checks have

September 2025

Company

NIPPON AMC

Takeaway

kept liquidity stable, the focus remains on curbing speculative retail bursts

without hurting broader participation.



Beyond derivatives:

On the cash side, global players and DIIs are

increasingly adopting BSE membership, using its infrastructure for arbitrage

against NSE. Smart order routing and HFT adoption highlight a structural

shift, positioning BSE beyond a “single-day expiry” play into a deeper

execution platform.



Non-MF segment:

It contributes ~10% to overall revenues, marginally below

expectations considering the strong momentum in the MF business.

However, management has guided for a meaningful scale-up, targeting an

increase to ~25% over the medium term.



Commissions:

The company has restructured commissions across three

schemes (~40-45% of AUM) and intends to extend this exercise to one more

scheme, which will bring the overall coverage to ~60% of AUM.



SIF:

Within the SIF category, seven product categories are available for

launch. With the team already in place, the company plans to introduce a

long-short SIF product in the near term, subject to approvals.



Yields:

Management has guided for an annual yield decline of ~2-3bp,

primarily due to the impact of telescopic pricing.



Flows back on track post hiccups:

Despite recent RM disruptions,

management is confident of achieving annual net flows of 12-15% of AUM,

with incremental contribution from B&K and UBS. Outflows due to the RM

exit in 4QFY25, 1QFY26, and slight spillover into 2QFY26 are seen as

transient.



Stabilizing RM base critical for growth:

Recent exits of two RM teams (one

each in North and South) were driven by aspirational factors rather than

systemic issues. With the recruitment of multiple teams in these regions

(including a team from Julius Baer) in place by 2Q, the RM base should

stabilize. ESOP-linked compensation continues to be a key lever for talent

attraction and retention.

360 One WAM



Strong positioning in the concentrated UHNI market:

360 One commands

MCX

~10% market share (4,500-5,000 families) in the UHNI space, on par with

Kotak. Platform depth and the regime change to trail-based commissions

(earlier upfront) will create barriers for newer players in a market with only

45,000-50,000 high-net-worth families, supporting long-term competitive

strength for 360ONE.



Improving relevance of AMC:

The AMC and distribution franchise are being

strengthened via ET Money and B&K acquisitions, with strong fund

performance and SIF structures enhancing relevance for the upcoming HNI

segment. Broader product capability (alternates, lending, broking) and

INR110b lending AUM target add diversification, supporting both client

stickiness and profitability.



New product launches:

MCX is focusing on index options and has recently

relaunched cardamom following its regulatory discontinuation. Upcoming

opportunities include power contracts, nickel, and other index options such

as Bulldex and Metaldex.

September 2025

Company

NUVAMA WEALTH

Takeaway



Colocation:

Colocation facilities remain disallowed. While such access would

benefit algo traders, the current setup with network latency disadvantages

clients versus global peers. Regulatory clarity on approval is still awaited.



Participation mix and growth:

Volumes are driven by a diverse mix—40%

from proprietary desks and 60% from clients (retail and corporate), with algo

activity embedded across. Bullion and energy have seen strong traction, with

corporate hedging in bullion contributing 20–30%. The top 10 participants

account for ~60% of overall volumes.



Margins:

Could come under pressure given softer volumes in July. While

expenses are manageable, revenues remain tied to volumes, keeping

margins vulnerable in the near term. The trajectory should become clearer

as the year progresses.



Businesses:

Management expects wealth and private wealth businesses to

compound at 20–25% over the next 3–5 years, while asset services are

guided to grow at 10–15%, leading to a rising revenue share from wealth

and private mandates. While the asset management arm, is currently loss-

making at ~INR190m with AUM size of ~INR113b.



MF:

The company has applied for MF license for SIF, with the first SEBI

inspection round completed and approvals expected in 3-4 months; the

team and strategy are ready to ramp up operations once the license is

granted.



Jane Street Impact:

The exit of Jane Street has had a near-term drag on asset

services, but management expects the business to revert to Q1 run-rates by

Q4 through a strong new-client pipeline and scaling from existing clients.



Regulations:

On the regulatory front, management highlighted that any shift



ABSL AMC



of expiries from weekly to fortnightly or monthly is unlikely to materially

impact custody and clearing economics, as float is linked to positions rather

than transactions—though brokers and exchanges could see lower volumes

Strong growth:

The company continues to deliver strong and consistent

returns across equity and fixed income, supported by robust processes,

senior fund manager additions and internal rotations, robust retail flows, and

innovative product launches.

Commissions:

The company does not intend to undertake commission

rationalization in the near term and remains focused on scaling volumes

while maintaining a balance with profitability.

SIF:

AMC has applied for four products and is awaiting regulatory approvals.

Team-building is underway and a new logo has been finalized; management

expects healthy traction in this segment.

Alternatives and GIFT City:

Alternatives are witnessing strong traction, with

well-established teams across debt and equity driving ~20-25% growth. The

company also plans to scale its presence in GIFT City by setting up a

subsidiary to capture emerging opportunities.

from weekly to forth nighty or monthly, management remains confident that

trading activity will not materially be impacted over the medium to long

term. The management asserts that customers using leverage—via cash,

Margin Trading Facility (MTF), or short-cycle contracts—are structurally



Regulations:

Despite uncertainties on possible shift of derivative contracts

ANGELONE

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

embedded in the ecosystem, and are likely to adapt rather than exit as seen

in the past as well.



Margins:

Over next 12–18 months, management guides to maintain margins

of ~45%, supported by strong client stickiness and diversified revenues. The

customer acquisition costs is broadly in line with peers, with a targeted

payback period of 2–2.5 quarters.



MTF:

MTF potential remains significant, with Angel currently facing no

capital constraints and capable of doubling its book without additional

funding. The company’s market share stands at 5.5%.



Businesses:

Wealth is expected to break even in ~3 years with focus on the

fast-growing Emerging HNI segment, while AMC will take ~10 years. Credit

has recently gain strong traction with focus on soon launching secured

lending.

CAPITAL GOODS



Domestic order trends:

Domestic order inflows are being driven by

Larsen & Toubro

government-led infrastructure and energy projects, with selective private

sector activity in defense, data centers, renewables, and metals like steel,

copper, and zinc. The government’s plan to add 100 GW of thermal capacity

by 2030-32, along with upcoming large refinery projects by OMCs, provides

strong visibility for the energy EPC pipeline alongside hydrocarbons and new-

age sectors.



International focus:

LT’s international opportunities, particularly in the

Middle East, have expanded sharply, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a core

growth driver across oil & gas and infra-linked projects. In addition, Kuwait

offers prospects in jointly controlled gas fields with Saudi Arabia. Overall, the

company is focusing on selective, high-return projects in hydrocarbons and

renewables, supported by better terms and lower working capital needs vs.

India.



Defense and shipbuilding:

Defense remains a small but growing part of the

business, and LT has seen improved traction in private participation. In

shipbuilding, competition from four public sector yards limits direct

opportunities, though subcontracting provides some business. Margins,

however, are superior only when LT secures projects directly.



Capital allocation discipline:

Management has reiterated its stance of

committing capital only when there is visibility of returns above the cost of

capital (currently ~13%). Green hydrogen projects may qualify if backed by

watertight offtake contracts, while data centers remain more akin to real

estate yields. Semiconductor design remains a high-risk but high-potential

bet, with only USD100m initially committed to test viability.



Defense momentum:

Management reiterated confidence in scaling up

Solar Industries

defense revenues, guided at INR30b in FY26. Growth will be driven by Pinaka

rockets (commercialization from 2Q/3Q), 155mm shells (commercial

production soon), UAVs, and loitering ammunition. Successful trials of

Bhargavastra and Rudrastra strengthen visibility, with commercialization

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

expected in the next few quarters. The defense order book of INR150b

provides multi-year growth visibility.



Drone expansion:

Solar is moving beyond Nagastra-1 into Nagastra-2/3 and

higher payload drones in partnership with NAL. The company sees this as a

natural progression, positioning itself in the higher altitude and longer

endurance segment. While exact opportunity sizing is difficult, management

expects strong long-term demand given India’s AON approvals and global

interest in indigenous drone systems.



Exports:

Exports are expected to contribute INR35-40b in FY26, aided by

strong traction in South Africa and upcoming capacity additions. The

Kazakhstan facility is slated to commence operations by Oct’25, and Saudi

Arabia plans are progressing. The export vertical is becoming a strategic

pillar, accounting for ~37-38% of revenue, with strong mining and industrial

explosives demand.



Capex Outlook:

Capex of INR25b is planned in FY26, with a strategic multi-

year program to expand capacity across ammunition, rockets, missiles, and

drones.



Powergen segment:

Demand for backup power is rising, with volumes now

back to CPCB-II levels. Key drivers include quick commerce, commercial real

estate, and manufacturing, while construction demand has softened. High-

KVA gensets support margins, but lower HP ranges remain commoditized

and price-sensitive.



Industrial segment:

Railways have stabilized after a brief lull, while DETC

demand is outpacing industry growth. Mining activity is subdued due to the

lack of Coal India tenders, and construction growth is flat. The compressor

segment is currently in a downturn. Approval for HLC engines has been

received, but production orders depend on successful field trials.

Cummins India



Distribution segment:

Distribution growth is supported by both powergen

and industrial customers, with stronger future potential from powergen.

Price increases of 5-10% have been implemented on parts. Telematics-

enabled CPCB IV+ gensets enhance aftermarket opportunities, reinforcing

Cummins’ positioning as a service-oriented brand.



Exports:

Management highlighted that exports are benefiting from strong

demand in data centers and LHP segments, particularly in Europe, Africa, and

the Middle East, though competition from Chinese players remains intense.

Positioning in Europe has strengthened. US market exposure is currently

limited. At the same time, tariff changes pose risks to India’s competitiveness

vs. China and Vietnam, potentially diluting its earlier ‘China+1’ advantage

despite its strong role in Cummins’ global supply chain.



T&D:

T&D will remain its primary growth engine, with order inflows

KEC International

continuing to dominate the overall mix. Management sees sustained

revenue momentum supported by strong domestic demand, international

opportunities, and a healthy backlog, ensuring visibility for the next 18-24

months. The focus ahead will be on scaling mechanization to counter skilled

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

labor shortages and maintaining double-digit margins as execution volumes

rise.



Civil:

Civil is positioned for 15-20% growth, with management aiming to

expand in residential and commercial buildings as a more reliable driver vs.

government-led water projects. The strategy is to capture large-ticket orders

in industrial and real estate segments while remaining selective in capex-

heavy areas. Going forward, the company expects to steadily diversify the

revenue base in Civil.



Railways & Water:

Both railways and water will remain low-priority

segments, with KEC focusing mainly on completing existing projects and

protecting working capital. In railways, decentralization of capex has resulted

in smaller projects, delays, and weak margins. In water, JJM disbursement

slowdown persists. Execution of the INR15b-17b water segment backlog will

continue, but fresh inflows are unlikely in the near term for both segments.



Cash flows:

Cash flows are expected to improve as pending receivables,

including ~INR3b from Afghanistan, are realized and as ongoing projects

reach closure. Management is targeting stronger contributions from civil and

industrial businesses to reduce reliance on T&D alone for free cash

generation. Over time, the company expects healthier cash flow conversion

to support growth without adding leverage.



T&D outlook:

In domestic T&D, PGCIL is expected to tender INR500b-600b in

FY26 and another INR300b-400b next year. While PGCIL ordering may slow

down, private players are filling the gap. KPIL is targeting a 15-20% market

share, leveraging its execution track record, supply chain strength, and pre-

bid tie-ups. Despite rising competition, its long experience and focus on

automation and training should help sustain market leadership.



B&F and O&G:

The B&F segment continues to show strong momentum,

Kalpataru Projects International

driven by residential, commercial, data center, and airport projects, with

marquee real estate developers contributing to the pipeline. On the oil & gas

side, the company is focusing more on international opportunities,

particularly in the Middle East, where it is already executing projects

alongside its transmission portfolio. The company highlighted an overall

USD6-7b opportunity pipeline in the Middle East across transmission and

O&G. Both B&F and oil & gas are margin-accretive segments.



Water & railways:

In water, no orders were received this quarter under the

Jal Jeevan Mission, and management noted the segment is moving slowly,

now contributing about 14% of the overall order book. In railways, the

pipeline is supported by metro projects, providing visibility even as the

company remains selective in its approach.



Labor shortage:

Management highlighted that skilled manpower availability,

particularly for tower erection, can sometimes become a bottleneck in

execution. To mitigate this, KPIL is increasing the use of automation and

mechanization while also investing in training programs to build a more

reliable workforce. These measures are aimed at reducing dependency on

external labor availability and ensuring smoother project delivery.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Debt reduction:

Management remains focused on deleveraging, led by the

sale of non-core assets. Indore assets are nearly sold, Shubham Projects is

being divested, and road projects are being exited, with the VEPL deal

expected to conclude by 3QFY26. Pending arbitration awards, including

INR10b from WEPL and KEPL, and proceeds from asset sales (INR1.5b from

Indore, INR1.3-1.4b from VEPL) will aid debt reduction.



Domestic market:

India remains a core market, contributing ~2 GW annually

in steam turbine orders. Management expects activity levels to improve

across steel, cement, sugar, distillery, and other process industries,

supported by both private capex and government push. With a robust

enquiry pipeline across multiple sectors, management remains optimistic

that aggregate demand momentum could eventually take the market back

toward higher levels.



Export market:

TRIV sees exports as a major growth engine going forward,

Triveni Turbines

with TRIV being well-placed to capture global enquiries, backed by stronger

teams and a sharper international presence. Recently, enquiries and inflows

were impacted by geopolitical issues. The company is seeing early success,

with its export presence expanding across Europe, Africa, the Americas, and

Asia. In the export segment, TRIV expects to steadily expand market share

and margins, making it a key driver of long-term growth.



Product diversification:

To remain relevant in a mature technology space,

TRIV is investing in new verticals and product variants. A key area has been

turbines for the oil & gas sector and more recently, innovations around CO2-

based turbines and heat pumps. These initiatives, still at the early

development stage, aim to improve efficiency, enable sustainable

cooling/heating solutions, and support emerging applications like energy

storage for NTPC.



Aftermarket services:

Aftermarket now contributes about 30-33% of its

revenues, supported by an installed base of 6,000 turbines, of which 3,000-

4,000 are actively serviced. Beyond its own machines, the company is also

targeting third-party equipment. TRIV has expanded its refurbishment

presence with a workshop in South Africa and a new facility in Houston.



Order book visibility:

Zen is targeting an inflow of INR6.5b in simulators in

ZEN Technologies

1HFY26, typically in tranches of INR1b-1.5b. Following this, it is also

expecting order inflows from emergency procurement on the anti-drone

side. Export inflows of around INR5b are also targeted by March’26.

Simulator orders, with a TAM of INR150b over five years, have 10-12 month

execution timelines, ensuring long-term visibility.



Anti-drone solutions:

Management emphasized that drones have become

the first line of warfare and highlighted the company’s anti-drone systems,

which can neutralize threats at a distance of 10-12 km. Zen added that the

last defensive layer of the remote weapon station is effective within 3-5 km

from ground level. TAM for anti-drones is about INR120b over the next five

years, with Zen being well-positioned to capture a significant share.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Wide-band capabilities:

The company highlighted its advanced wide-band

capabilities of 1.4 GHz and 2.2 GHz, integrated with the L70 system. Its

subsidiary has developed a remote-controlled weapon station adaptable to

any vehicle, while solutions such as the Hawk Eye camera are critical for

armored vehicles and ships. Head-mounted displays for weapon systems

have already undergone trials, reinforcing Zen’s position in guard-kill

solutions, where no peer currently matches its breadth.



Strategic acquisitions:

Recent acquisitions such as Tisa Aerospace and

investments in AI Turing and Bhairav Robotics add depth to the portfolio.

Bhairav is focusing on developing robo mules weighing 150 kg, preferred

over robo dogs. Additionally, Vector will commence production of motor

parts for IC engines, while synergies with ARIPL’s dealer network are likely to

expand Zen’s international reach.



Export resilience:

The company is witnessing very good inquiry levels from

international geographies for investments in renewable sources of power

and data centers and is well diversified in its client base. It has been working

with various global OEMs for a very long time. Unlike its competitors, it is not

impacted by any delays in purchase-related decisions from the client’s side.



Capacity expansion:

The existing facility is operating at nearly three shifts,

TD Power

supported by strong order inflows of around INR3.8b per quarter. To keep

pace with demand, management is targeting a ramp-up to INR4b-4.5b per

quarter. The new plant, once commissioned, can enable peak revenue of

INR18b-19b on a yearly basis, sufficient to meet requirements until FY28

without a fourth facility. However, if the US tariffs persist, setting up a plant

abroad may be considered to reduce cost pressures.



Product diversification:

The company is entering the larger 50-70 MW

generator category while also scaling up its motor business. It is targeting

international railway opportunities in collaboration with Alstom. The less-

than-60 MW generator market is estimated at around USD1b, offering

sizable scope. Management also highlighted CO2-related solutions as a

significant upcoming opportunity.



Order pipeline visibility:

The company highlighted an active pipeline of

tenders exceeding INR10b, with outcomes expected progressively over the

next few months. Management is confident of winning over 90% of these

due to its technology leadership and first-mover advantage. Orders include

periscopes for the Navy, thermal imaging optics, and space-related

programs.

Paras Defence and Space

Technologies



Drone camera monopoly:

From Jan’26, all UAV companies in India, large or

small, will be mandated to source cameras domestically, with Paras Defense

being the only producer. Currently, all drone cameras are imported, giving

the company a virtual monopoly position. This regulatory shift is expected to

create a significant growth inflection for the business starting in FY27.



Periscope opportunities:

The submarine periscope business offers long-term

revenue potential, with each submarine requiring at least two units priced at

around INR500m each. Beyond initial delivery, the lifecycle includes

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

warranties, AMCs, refurbishments, and retrofits, ensuring further annual

income streams.



Space optics pipeline:

Paras is participating in multiple space programs,

including three major ground-to-space optics projects for science and

satellite tracking. Management expects over INR7b of business from such

programs, with ISRO alone contributing ~INR3b in FY25-26.



Laser systems development:

The company has secured an INR1.2b contract

from DRDO to develop a high-power laser system for air defense, with

delivery scheduled for FY26. Follow-on opportunities could range from 10 to

30 systems, each priced at INR2b, creating a multi-billion potential market. In

parallel, the company is working on fiber lasers for anti-drone applications,

which have a broader addressable market across critical infrastructure

protection.



Exports:

Exports, particularly to Israel, remain a strong growth driver, with

calendar year optics sales expected to exceed INR1b. Management

emphasized that exports will continue to supplement domestic defense and

space orders.



Aero-tooling strategy:

The aero-tooling business, covering both aero engines

and airframes, remains the company’s core cash flow generator. Unimech

continues to expand approvals across engines like LEAP and is targeting a

basket of ~1,200 tool approvals. Growth will be driven by deeper penetration

with existing licensees and OEMs such as Boeing, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Pratt &

Whitney, and Dassault. High entry barriers, recurring replacement demand,

and a growing global market (USD2-3b size) provide long-term visibility.



Precision component segment:

Management noted that precision

components, though currently small, will be a key growth driver with >40%

CAGR, contributing INR3.5b-4b by FY26 and about 35% of revenues by FY29.

Investments in facilities and manpower are complete, and ramp-up is

expected to begin this year with strong traction beyond FY26.



Tariff challenges:

With ~70% of revenues linked to US exports, recent tariff

Unimech Aerospace And

Manufacturing

changes have impacted sales. To mitigate this, the company is setting up a

Free Trade Warehouse (FTW) in Bangalore, enabling direct shipments to

global customers and bypassing US tariffs. The initiative is supported by

government authorities, and management aims to operationalize it within a

quarter. Around 70% of exports could be safeguarded through this model,

though ~30% destined for US consumption will remain exposed.



Diversification plans:

In addition to scaling friction and precision

components, the company is evaluating opportunities in nuclear tooling and

other adjacent sectors to reduce dependence on aero. Management

emphasized the importance of diversifying into new verticals while

continuing to build scale in aero-tooling, which will remain the primary

growth driver and high-margin cash generator.



Growth vision:

Management reiterated its long-term target of achieving

INR10b revenue by FY29, with aero-tooling contributing around 65% and

precision components forming 35%. The company highlighted that its capex

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

cycle is largely behind, with steady-state capex at INR2.5b-3b supporting

turnover at 3.0-3.5x of the asset base. Employee strength has reached ~900,

with significant training programs underway.



Demand:

UTCEM is well positioned to capture long-term demand growth as

CEMENT

India urbanizes. While the share of individual home builders is expected to

moderate, larger and more organized real estate developers are set to

expand. The company already commands a leadership position with ~31%

volume market share and ~28% capacity share. The company has an

extensive footprint with +75 plants (IU/GU/Bulk terminal for grey cement)

operational.



Cost-saving initiatives driving profitability improvement:

UTCEM continues

to drive efficiencies through multiple levers. Its green power push (targeting

60% by FY27 vs. ~30% currently) is translating into savings of INR80/t.

Increasing AFR usages and reducing the clinker factor would lead to cost

savings of INR30-40/t (each). The other major driver is logistics optimization

through lead distance reduction, use of EVs for short distance clinker

transfer, and optimum utilization of large-scale operations. It expects cost

savings of up to INR120/t through logistic optimization. These cost savings

would be achieved by FY27-end, and the full benefit is expected in FY28.



Industry consolidation:

Currently the top 10 players account for ~80% of the

UltraTech Cement

industry’s capacity share. The industry’s total capacity stood at ~670mtpa,

and ~60-80mtpa of capacity is still expected to change hands in the coming

years.



Demand and pricing:

Prices are holding up despite a lean period (monsoon

JK Cement

Dalmia Bharat

season). In many parts of the country (North, Central, and East regions), rains

are higher than long-term averages, which has hurt demand in Aug/Sep’25.

Industry growth should be 6-7% YoY in Jul-Aug ’25.



Ongoing capacity expansion:

The Jaisalmer plant should be commissioned

by early FY28, and the total installed capacity will reach 38-39mtpa at that

time (vs. 26mtpa in FY26). In the target markets, the company’s lead is

expected to be 100-120 km lower than the peers serving these markets as of

now. It will also use lignite in kilns, and the cost is estimated to be much

lower than coal/pet coke. This plant will help strengthen its position in many

of the existing markets.



Future targets:

It is on its way to reach a capacity of 50mtpa by FY30, and

future expansions (South and Central regions) will be through the brownfield

route. Capex cost/t of the next phase of expansion should be at USD60/t;

lower than the Jaisalmer expansion cost of USD75/t. Capex cost for Jaisalmer

looks low due to lower land prices (USD4-5/t saving), bigger plant size, and

rupee depreciation.



Demand and pricing:

Industry demand in 1HFY26 is estimated to grow in

mid-single digits due to subdued 1QFY26 and an extended monsoon in

2QFY26 (so far). Hence, to achieve full-year volume growth target of ~6-7%

YoY in FY26, volume should grow at ~7-8% YoY in 2HFY26E. So far, cement

prices are firm vs. 1QFY26. In 2HFY26, the sector is likely to witness higher

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

capacity addition, making demand pick-up critical for sustaining positive

pricing momentum.



Capacity expansion:

Capacity expansion remains on track, with expansion

projects (greenfield and brownfield) at Kadapa, Chennai, Belgaum (South),

Pune (West), and Assam (North-east), which will take the total capacity to

~64mtpa by FY28 vs. ~50mtpa currently. It expects clarity on JPA IBC process

in coming months. Meanwhile, it is progressing on land acquisition and

environmental clearances for its greenfield expansion at Jaisalmer.



Cost-saving initiatives:

It is targeting a cost reduction of INR150-200/t over

the next two year, led by increasing green power share, and reduction in

freight costs. The company has already achieved ~25% AFR share (vs.

industry average at 4-5%), becoming one of the least cost producers in the

industry.

CHEMICALS



Fluoropolymers as core growth driver:

Fluoropolymers remain the backbone

Gujarat Fluorochemicals

of GFL’s business, with strong global positioning and a targeted ~25% growth

trajectory.



New growth frontier:

Leveraging its fluorine chemistry expertise, GFL is now

scaling into battery chemicals {LIPF6 (Lithium Hexafluorophosphate),

electrolytes}, aiming to replicate its earlier success in fluoropolymers. With

commercial LIPF6 production underway and capacity expansion in progress,

the company is on track to become the largest non-China LIPF6

manufacturer by mid-next year.



Integrated and sustainable approach:

GFL is building a complete value chain

in BESS and battery materials (not just imports/assembly) and

simultaneously investing in green power through IPP and solar projects. This

ensures long-term competitiveness and aligns with government FRDA

initiatives.



Outlook:

GFL is evolving from a fluoropolymer-focused business into a

diversified growth platform across fluoropolymers, battery chemicals, and

sustainable energy. Despite near-term tariff and price pressures from China,

its integrated value chain, global customer base, and strong positioning in

high-growth markets provide clear long-term visibility, positioning the

company to deliver industry-leading growth and become a credible global

alternative in battery chemicals.

September 2025

Company

Navin Fluorine

Takeaway



Strong growth visibility in ref gases (R32):

Demand for R32 remains

structurally robust due to its low GWP, while constrained global supply

positions Navin to capture sustained long-term growth through CY30 and

beyond.



Scaling up specialty & CDMO businesses:

Specialty utilization is expected to

rise from ~50-60% in FY24 to 80% by FY26, driving operating leverage. In

CDMO, the company is focused on working with innovators, with multiple

late-stage molecules.



Capex:

FY26 capex includes CGMP-4 (INR1.6b), AHF (INR4.5b), Chemours

project (INR1b, commercializing in FY27), and R32/advanced materials. Asset

turns are guided at 1.3-1.4x. The company has no need for equity fund-

raising till at least FY30, with net debt/equity capped at 0.5x—ensuring

financial strength to fund its growth.



Outlook:

Navin Fluorine is poised for a multi-year growth cycle, driven by

strong positioning in refrigerant gases (R32) and the expansion of its

specialty and high-margin CDMO businesses. Operating leverage from

improving utilization and new project commercialization by FY26-27, coupled

with strategic partnerships and disciplined capex, positions the company to

deliver sustainable growth with stable margins.

CONSUMER



Demand:

The macro environment has turned favorable, owing to a 100bp

repo rate cut since Jan’25, improved liquidity in the system, easing retail

inflation, income tax relief announced in the FY26 budget, and GST proposal.



Personal care:

Pressure in soap volume growth was mainly due to grammage

cuts. HUL has relaunched Lifebuoy with a new proposition of skin protection

vs. germ fighting earlier. Management indicated that it is expected to take 2-

3 quarters to deliver results.



Food & Refreshments:

Horlicks is seeing sequential improvements. The

Hindustan Unilever

company is focusing on driving consumption and improving penetration in

the category. In coffee, OOH is taking over vs. in-home consumption. HUL

remains watchful in the space.



Channels:

HUL gaining market share across value and volume in organized

Varun Beverages

channels. Margins are higher in Ecom/QC followed by MT and then GT.



Guidance:

HUL does not expect its strategic priorities to materially change

under the new leadership. 1HFY26 growth is expected to be better than

2HFY25, driven by continued portfolio transformation and improving

macroeconomic indicators. EBITDA margin guidance is maintained at 22-23%

for the near term.



Volume growth:

Volume growth is largely led by capacity expansion. ~22-

25% of volume growth can be addressed through existing capacity in India.

The company does not anticipate a reduction in sales despite the monsoon

and floods.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



GST impact:

One-third of the company’s volume mix is water (currently 18%

GST), which is expected to reduce to 5%. Another one-third consists of juices

(currently 12% GST), which is expected to increase to 18%. On a net basis,

the company anticipates a marginal benefit.



South Africa:

The company is awaiting approval from the Competition

Commission of India to acquire a factory. It also plans to start a canning

facility, which is expected to drive another round of growth, along with

margin expansion.



Margin story:

Margins in 1Q were largely supported by closing smaller

capacities and merging them with larger ones. Moreover, continued

backward integration continues to enhance margins.



Demand:

Demand trends are improving gradually. The monsoon has so far

Godrej Consumer Products

been in line with GCPL’s expectations. GCPL is optimistic about domestic

macro but cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties and palm oil volatility.



Household Insecticides (HI):

The industry size of HI is ~INR80b, of which

~INR30b is LV as per GCPL. New molecule (R&F) has been successful;

exclusivity gives competitive moat and strong consumer repeat and recall.

Management indicated that quarterly fluctuations will be there, but on an

annualized basis, GCPL is expected to achieve high-single-digit volume

growth.



Park Avenue and Kamasutra:

For RCCL-acquired brands, ~70% of them are

TATA Consumers

deo and perfumes, ~5% are Park Avenue soaps, and the rest of them are

sexual wellness products. On the cost side, GCPL has streamlined most of the

cost heads. It is focusing on scaling up revenue. RCCL gross margins are in

line with GCPL, while EBITDA is lower than the company’s average given

higher ad spends in RCCL.



Indonesia business:

Business impacted by macro slowdown and heightened

price competition. Margin pressures are expected to be temporary, with

gradual improvement.



Nourishco:

The decline in 1Q was due to weather and pricing correction. The

company anticipates decent growth in 2QFY26, largely led by volumes. This

growth is expected to arise as a result of the distribution network’s

expansion.



Capital foods:

The company may launch a massive campaign with Ranveer

Singh this month. The business has a strong grip in the West and South, and

all supply chain bottlenecks have been resolved.



Tea:

Tea margins are expected to normalize from 2Q, with gross margins

projected at 31-32%. This will be led by volume and pricing growth, both in

the range of 3-4%



Tariff impact:

While Organic India exports 40% of its total sales (most of it to

the US), the tariff impact on the same is yet to be seen. Further, goods

imported by the US that arrive before 5

Oct’25 will not be subject to tariffs.



Maharashtra duty hike:

In Jun’25, Maharashtra raised excise duty on IMFL

United Spirits

sharply, from 3x to 4.5x of manufacturing costs, resulting in a steep 30-40%

increase in retail prices. Industry volumes are estimated to decline ~20%,

September 2025

Company

Radico Khaitan

Takeaway

with United Spirits (USL) particularly vulnerable, since Maharashtra

contributes mid-to-high teens of its overall revenue. In the near term,

stockpiling ahead of price hikes has boosted volumes, but demand may

weaken due to downtrading. Despite disruption, management is confident of

double-digit P&A revenue growth in FY26 and noted that Maharashtra is still

a progressive state with initiatives like Maharashtra Malt Liquor (MML) that

could structurally support premium, high-margin categories.



India-UK FTA:

The FTA is a milestone for imported spirits, slashing tariffs on

Scotch whisky and Gin from 150% to 75%, with a further glide path to 40%

over 10 years. This reduction opens a strong growth opportunity for Scotch

whisky brands, which were earlier restricted by prohibitive duties. Being a

subsidiary of Diageo, USL has a unique advantage with a strong global

portfolio, allowing it to capitalize faster than domestic peers. The tariff cut

supports USL’s premiumization strategy, expands the addressable consumer

base, and creates margin tailwinds for the long term.



Raw materials: ENA & Packaging -

The ethanol (ENA) market continues to

face cost pressures, driven by the government’s aggressive biofuel blending

targets, which divert the supply. A new ethanol policy framework, expected

in Nov-Dec’25, could potentially ease supply constraints and stabilize costs.

On the packaging front, glass prices have stabilized after a period of

volatility, though USL has no plans for backward integration into glass

manufacturing. Instead, the company leverages its scale and bargaining

power while focusing on light-weighting bottles and redesigning packaging to

reduce per-unit glass usage. These actions have been effective in offsetting

inflationary pressures, thus helping protect margins.



Management guidance

- USL has reiterated its double-digit revenue growth

guidance in FY26 for the P&A segment, anchored to premiumization and

brand rationalization (phasing out low-margin brands). The company retains

A&P spend at 9.5-10% of sales, significantly higher than peers’, to fuel

innovation, visibility, and consumer engagement. If Maharashtra’s excise

revenue declines materially, management expects the state may revisit its

tax framework, easing industry pressure.



P&A portfolio – growth and innovation:

The P&A portfolio remains the key

growth driver, with revenue from luxury and semi-luxury spirits rising from

INR0.8b in FY23 to INR3.4b in FY25, and expected to reach INR5b in FY26.

Over the next 2-3 years, this segment is projected to sustain 30-35% growth,

has delivered ~100% growth in two years and is on track to reach 0.5 million

cases in FY26. Similarly, Morpheus Premium Whiskey has shown early

success in South India and UP, with a rollout to 10-12 more states by end-

2025.



P&A portfolio – white spirits and vodka leadership:

White spirits continue

to be the fastest-growing category after Covid, though only 4% of India’s

consumption compared to 28% globally. Radico leads the vodka category

through Magic Moments, holding a dominant 58-60% market share. Kashmyr

Vodka, which has outperformed Absolut and Grey Goose in blind taste tests,

September 2025

Company

LT Foods

Takeaway

is expanding into 5-10 more states in FY26. Vodka volumes are expected to

rise from 7 million cases in FY25 to 8-8.5 million in FY26. Kohinoor Rum is

also lined up for an India launch in 2HFY26, strengthening the semi-luxury

offering.



UK-India FTA -

The agreement signed in 2025 is a structural positive for

Scotch and Gin imports, with tariffs cut from 150% to 75% immediately and a

glide path to 40% over the next decade. Scotch imports (INR1.8b in FY25) are

projected to grow to INR2.5b in FY26, with medium-term potential of INR4-

5b over the next three years. Radico plans to retain the benefits of tariff cuts

within its margins rather than passing them on to consumers, given strong

acceptance of current pricing. This will help reinforce premiumization and

support long-term profitability.



Guidance and margins -

Radico has reiterated its ambition of delivering

more than 20% overall volume growth in FY26. Going ahead, the company

expects over 15% volume growth in P&A segment and 7-8% in regular

categories. Management is guiding for 125-150bp annual EBITDA margin

expansion over the next three years, aiming for high-teens margins. Easing

ENA and glass costs, combined with in-house supply and packaging

efficiency, should support profitability. Non-IMFL margins currently stand at

6.5-7%, with room for improvement as input pressures normalize.



Tariff impact:

25% tariff has already been passed on to customers;

negotiations are underway for the next 25%. US rice consumers’ monthly

spend is expected to rise from USD 10 to USD 14, a negligible impact given

the higher per capita income and low share in household budgets; hence,

demand impact is unlikely.



Outlook:

FY26-27 revenue and margin guidance remain unchanged despite

tariff concerns. The organic foods segment is expected to grow 10% in FY26

on an already high FY25 base. The HORECA segment contributes 15%

globally (20% in India), supporting steady growth.



Market dynamics:

The US rice market is ~2.5-3 MMT, with basmati at ~700k

MT; LT Foods’ basmati is priced at 8-10% premium. Strong basmati

production in India last year led to 15-17% price correction; this quarter,

realizations declined 4-5%. Pakistan’s supply was constrained by the aging

infra and floods; Indian prices are currently more competitive.



Strategic expansion:

The company is acquiring Hungary-based Global Greens

(canned peas/corn), with a valuation of EUR13-14m. The deal is subject to

FDI compliance. Hungary offers a lower labor cost advantage within the EU.



Capex and backward integration:

ABD has outlined a capex program of

Allied Blenders and Distilleries

about INR5b over FY25-27, all of which will be margin-accretive. The projects

include a PET plant in Telangana (INR1.1b), which would meet 70-75% of

internal packaging needs (INR0.6b worth of bottles annually) and generate

annual savings of INR0.3b once commissioned in 2QFY26. In Maharashtra

(Aurangabad), ENA capacity is being expanded from 11 MLPA to 61 MLPA at

a cost of INR2.6b, with the commissioning expected by 4QFY27. Additionally,

the company is investing INR0.75b to set up a single malt distillery (4 MLPA)

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

at Aurangabad, with its first launch planned in FY27. These initiatives should

collectively add ~300bp to EBITDA margins in the next few years.



Subsidiary – ABD Maestro:

ABD holds an 80% stake in ABD Maestro, with

the remaining held by Ranveer Singh, who is also a strategic partner. This

subsidiary focuses exclusively on luxury and super-premium spirits, with a

dedicated 50-member team managing distribution, mixology, digital

presence, and on-premise channels. The portfolio includes Zoya Gin, Arthaus

Collective, Woodburns, Segredo Aldeia rum, and Russian Standard Vodka.

Woodburns, acquired in Jan’25, is positioned as an affordable luxury whisky

(~INR3,000 MRP), while Arthaus Scotch is expanding internationally. Zoya

Gin, offered in flavors like Espresso and Watermelon, targets cocktail culture

in urban centers. Maestro is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven by FY28,

with reinvestment of early profits into brand building.



Maharashtra, Telangana and UK FTA:

In Maharashtra, the sharp excise duty

hike has increased MRPs by 25-30%, with ICONiQ White’s price moving to

INR900 (from INR680). While near-term demand may soften, ABD expects

downtrading from higher-priced rivals like Royal Stag and Imperial Blue to

ICONiQ, potentially improving its share in the Prestige category. In

Telangana, receivable clearances have been delayed, with partial payments

in April-May and none in June-July, creating a working capital drag. However,

for ABD, Telangana is the state with the highest sales and ENA hub, and

management expects a resolution after elections (Nov’25). On the regulatory

front, the India-UK FTA has cut scotch import duties from 150% to 75%, with

a glide path to 40%. For ABD, this directly translates into a ~200bp margin

uplift, given its INR1b annual Scotch imports and current duty outgo of

INR1.5b, which will be reduced to INR0.75b.



Guidance and outlook:

Management has guided for mid-teens revenue

growth in the coming years, with P&A salience expected to rise above 50% of

volumes within three years. EBITDA margins are targeted at ~17% by FY28,

supported by backward integration, premiumization, and benefits from the

UK-India FTA. RoCE (pre-tax) is projected to improve from 16.9% in FY25 to

23-25% by FY28. The super-premium and luxury segment, which currently

accounts for 3% of industry volumes (~12 million cases), is expected to

double in four years. ABD aims to secure a high single-digit share of this fast-

growing space. Exports, already ~1.3x more profitable than domestic

business, are expected to expand from 27 to 35 countries by FY26-end.



Cables and wires:

C&W segment continue to deliver strong growth, backed

CONSUMER DURABLES

by strong demand from government-led projects and healthy pick-up in

private capex demand. Demand momentum remains robust, underpinned by

long-term infrastructure investments in power, railways, and roads, which

could extend the growth cycle for 15-20 years. Exports remain a focus, with a

10% contribution target, even as the US market faces tariffs, while MEA,

Europe and Australia are performing better.



FMEG:

The company has expanded distribution network across geography,

launched wide product range at across price points and increasing brand

Polycab India

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

positioning by higher A&P spend. These initiatives help in better execution,

which seen with improved performance in past few quarters. Targets ~8-10%

EBITDA margin by FY30. The GST rate cut will not have impact at company

level as all products falls under 18% GST rate.



Capex guidance:

The company maintains capex guidance of INR12b-INR16b

annually, with ~80% allocated to C&W, and balance for backward integration

and FMEG segment.



Demand trends for Lloyd:

Demand for RAC remains low due to the extended



Havells



KEI Industries

monsoon season and flood-like conditions in many parts of the country. Last

year, the base was also high due to an elongated summer season. Inventory

is higher with dealers, though it is getting liquidated, supported by lower

primary sales. A likely reduction of the GST rate can help boost RAC demand

in the medium term.

Demand trend for other products:

Fan demand is better compared to RAC

and BLDC/premium fans and has witnessed growth even in 1QFY26. Demand

for cable & wire remains strong; though, cable is expected to grow higher

than wires. Real estate demand seems to be weak and has hurt growth in

the switchgear segment.

Rationale for investments in Goldi Solar:

Havells generated ~INR4b in

revenue from rooftop solar in FY25. It had an extensive product portfolio

(solar cable, wire, and inverter) to cater to this segment but had limited

presence in solar panels. Earlier, solar panels were being imported from

China, but the government is insisting on domestic production now. Frequent

technology changes and the need for manufacturing of solar cells from the next

year led the company to enter into a partnership rather than own

manufacturing. It will also help in improving/maintaining quality

standards.

Demand:

The company continue to witness strong demand momentum in

domestic market driven by renewables, data centers, utilities, and the real

estate sector. It has maintained its revenue growth guidance of ~18% for

FY26E, followed by ~20% thereafter.

Capacity expansion:

The Sanand expansion is progressing as per schedule,

with LT cable capacity likely to be commissioned in Sep’25, followed by MV

cable capacity is expected in Oct-Nov’25 and EHV capacity in 1QFY27E.

Contribution from Sanand plant in top line is expected INR6b in FY26 and

INR20-25b in FY27 from, while full ramp up will be in next three to five years.

FY25, generating revenue of INR1.4-1.45b while, in FY26 (to date) US export

revenue stood at INR900m. US tariff will impact revenue potential in that

market however, the company not revised its overall revenue growth

targets, as it believes exports opportunities in other geographies and

domestic demand are strong to meet guidance.



Exports:

On the export front, the company entered in US market only in

EMS

September 2025

Company

Kaynes

Takeaway



OSAT and PCB:

Management expects to generate INR15b-INR20b in revenue

from its OSAT business and around INR10b from its PCB business by FY28. On

maturity, margins are projected to exceed 18% for OSAT and 20% for PCB.



Industry landscape:

The global electronics market is witnessing a shift of

new product manufacturing from China to India, supported by cost

advantages, rising global interest, and India’s growing semiconductor

ecosystem.



Outlook:

By FY28, Kaynes aims to achieve USD1b in revenue, with all three

businesses (EMS, OSAT, PCB) expected to generate

positive CFO.



Capex:

The company has completed all the necessary capex required to

achieve USD1b in revenue by FY28, with only minor routine capex expected

thereafter.

impacted by GST-related postponements as dealers held back purchases.

While the broader market is down ~30%, Amber’s decline is contained at

~14%, reflecting relative outperformance. The industry is expected to post

only single-digit growth this year, with recovery likely after inventory

clearance by 3Q.



Demand weakness:

Room AC demand has declined 12-13% YoY in 2Q,



Non-AC diversification:

Non-RAC businesses are gaining traction, particularly

Amber Enterprises

from telecom and smart metering, while commercial AC remains on a steady

growth path without seasonality. Amber expects its CAC business to reach

INR3b this year and scale to INR5b in 1-2 years, driving a stronger non-RAC

mix (currently 15-20%).



Electronics scale-up:

This segment remains a major growth driver with

USD7b TAM in PCBA and significant import substitution opportunities.

Amber targets 25-30% growth in PCBA over the next few years, supported by

backward integration in PCBs and power electronics. Electronics revenue is

expected to reach ~INR33b by FY26 with improving margins (10%+ EBITDA).



Railways and defense:

The company is expanding into high-value, long-

gestation segments. Railways segment has an order book of INR22b. Defense

has begun contributing, and the Vande Bharat program is seen as a

structural J-curve growth driver by FY28.

HEALTHCARE



Progressing well on specialty portfolio:

In addition to steady improvement

Sun Pharma

in prescriptions of base products in the specialty portfolio, SUNP continues

to add products to its offerings. It launched Leqselvi and would be launching

Unloxcyt in 2HFY26. In fact, the prescription for Leqselvi has been promising

till now. Also, encouraging results from phase III clinical trials related to

Psoriatic Arthritis would lead to potential regulatory US submission of

Illumya filing for additional indication.



Work-in-progress to better industry growth in domestic formulation

segment:

There has been decent volume growth at industry level in focus

therapies of SUNP (Cardiovascular, Gastro-intestinal, CNS, Diabetes). This,

along with MR reach and strong brand recall, is expected to sustain industry

September 2025

Company

Max Healthcare

Takeaway

outperformance for SUNP. Interestingly, SUNP’s anti-infective portfolio has

products required during surgeries and is less dependent on the seasonality.



Higher inclination toward adding late-stage clinical product in specialty

portfolio:

With focus on dermatology, ophthalmology and onco

dermatology, SUNP intends to acquire products that would be in late-stage

clinical trials and improve leverage of existing commercialization channel

established in the US.



Robust bed expansion to cater to future growth:

MAXH is on track to add

1,500 beds in FY26, following the addition of ~856 beds in FY25. Specifically,

the 400-bed expansion tower at Max Smart Super Speciality Hospital, Saket

is currently undergoing interior and MEP fit-outs, with commissioning

targeted in Q2FY26. The 500-bed greenfield hospital in Gurugram is expected

to be completed by end-FY26. The Phase 1 expansion at Nanavati Hospital,

involving 268 beds, is advancing in line with the schedule, with

commissioning expected within the next 90 days. At MAXH Lucknow, the

company has added 128 beds, with further 35 beds commissioned in

May’25. Additional 39 beds are slated for rollout over the next 12 months,

while the Oncology block is on track to become operational by Q2FY26,

supporting the hospital’s continued scale-up and service line expansion.



International patients flow on strong growth path:

Adding newer

geographies including developed countries has enabled MAXH grow at

superior rate on YoY basis. This is despite reduction in patient flow from

countries facing political unrest. Certain measures like Direct-to-fly and

increased focus towards international marketing has led improved number

of patients for treatment.



Thane – a promising healthcare destination:

The rapid urban growth and

close proximity to Mumbai provides significant demand boost to Thane

healthcare industry. Also, the asset light nature of transaction would further

improve the return ratios from this investment.



On track to achieve EBITDA breakeven in digital business:

With GMV

growth of 25-30% on track for FY26, APHS is confident of achieving EBITDA

breakeven by FY26 end. GMV comprises pharmacy, diagnostics, and the

business driven by Apollo Group Hospitals. The redefinition of GMV related

to Apollo Group Hospitals and the restated GMV of INR8-9b would enable

APHS to achieve faster EBITDA breakeven in the digital platform.



Case mix optimization/addition of beds to better hospital business

Apollo hospital and Enterprise

(APHS)

prospects:

CONGO (cardiac, oncology, neuroscience, gastro and ortho)

therapies have witnessed healthy growth momentum. APHS has worked to

reduce ALOS, driving better profitability. APHS is on track to add 700 beds on

the current base of 9,458.



High revenue per store and store addition to drive offline pharmacy

business:

APHS is confident of adding 600 stores in FY26 (added 120 stores

in 1Q). With improvement in store-level revenue, increase in the number of

stores and combining of Keimed/online business, APHS is targeting an

annualized revenue run rate of INR250b by 4QFY27.

September 2025

Company

Mankind Pharma

Lupin

Takeaway



BSV scale-up on track:

Mankind has rationalized the field force based on the

productivity. Subsequently, it has integrated the portfolio offerings in the MR

team to enhance the synergy benefit of the acquisition. This effort has

started reflecting in increased business of certain products. Mankind is also

working on the optimization of supply chain management to further improve

the profitability.



Recalibrated approach toward consumer health enabling better growth:

With change in the distribution channel for consumer health products and

renewed marketing efforts, Mankind has been able to revive growth in

consumer health segment. The intent is to expand the portfolio from the

existing prescription products and not have new introductions in this

segment.



Chronic focus to drive industry outperformance in prescription (Rx)

business:

Mankind continues to approach Rx business through a) the

addition of differentiated products, b) enhanced marketing efforts, and c)

widening its presence.



Continued momentum in the US with specialty and biosimilars:

The US

remains Lupin’s most critical growth driver, with a strong outlook anchored

by exclusivity launches and pipeline progression. The FTF launch of

Tolvaptan

has set a new benchmark, with management expecting a longer-

than-usual exclusivity window due to its specialty profile and REMS

requirements. The approval of

Risperidone extended-release injectable

(USD 190m market)

further expands Lupin’s injectable portfolio,

complementing upcoming launches like

Liraglutide

in FY26. On the

biosimilars front,

Pegfilgrastim

approval is anticipated this year, followed by

OBI in FY27/28 and

Ranibizumab

in FY27. While the base portfolio continues

to see modest single-digit price erosion and competition in products such as

Albuterol, the increasing mix of complex therapies, injectables, and

biosimilars positions it well.



Focus on GLP-1s and consumer healthcare:

Lupin grew

ahead of IPM

in key

therapies such as cardiac, Gl, and VMS. LOE on certain in-licensed brands in

the diabetes segment has hurt growth rates but impacted the profitability

positively, as it is a low-margin segment. GLP-1s are central to the domestic

strategy—Liraglutide

launches are planned in FY26, while Semaglutide (oral

and injectable) is targeted for FY27.

The newly carved-out

LupinLife

Consumer Healthcare

subsidiary allows a sharper focus on scaling OTC

products independently.



ETR:

Management has guided for a

22-23% ETR over the next 2-3 years.



Pen-G facility ramp-up to support margins:

Management expects the Pen-G

Aurobindo Pharma

plant to turn from a drag into a margin contributor starting Q3FY26, as yields

stabilize and efficiencies improve. Without MIP, the plant will break even at

550mt monthly capacity. The associated PLI scheme should add a recurring

income stream.



The US and EU launches to scale over the medium term:

The near-term US

base business is cushioned by injectables and new launches, with

management confident of sustained mid- to high-single-digit product flow.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

The real inflection is expected from biosimilars—where multiple EU

approvals are secured, launches will scale from H2FY26, and US

opportunities will strengthen from FY27. The Vizag facility is expected to be a

key growth lever, with plans to

file over 20 products in the US and Europe

over the next two years.



Biosimilars commercialization and margin expansion in Europe:

Aurobindo

sees Europe as a major growth engine, with biosimilars expected to

meaningfully contribute from FY26 onwards. The company has secured

four

approvals in the region

and is focused on stabilizing supply chains,

expanding QP testing capacity in Malta, and finalizing distribution

partnerships in non-core markets, such as with

Orion Pharma in the Nordics.

Management expects commercialization to gain traction over FY26–27, with

biosimilars delivering

well above company-average EBITDA margins

and

gross margins in the

40–60% range,

supported by oncology resilience to

price erosion.



Lanett deal to drive US growth and EBITDA expansion:

The Lanett deal is

seen as a key growth driver with a strategic leap into US-controlled

substances. Lanett's current revenue was INR300m with INR47m EBITDA,

and management expects to increase the revenue to INR700-750m with

INR200m EBITDA within three years from integration with Aurobindo’s

supply chain. This is aided by underutilized capacity: currently utilized at only

~40%, while also leveraging Lanett’s strong BD and in-licensing capabilities.

Management highlights upside potential from Lanett’s consistent quota

utilization and scaling the CMO platform across international markets.



Sustained market share and pipeline expansion:

Established products like

Biocon

Ogivri and Fulphila continue to hold steady US market share, while Yesintek

is scaling quickly with broad formulary coverage. Kirsty (Insulin Aspart) is set

for rapid adoption as the only interchangeable insulin in the US, and Yesafili

(Aflibercept) plus Denosumab approvals expand the portfolio into new

therapy areas. Near-term pipeline launches, including Bevacizumab and

Denosumab in the US, are expected to further strengthen the oncology and

bone health franchises. The Malaysia insulin facility is ramping up to capture

share from Novo’s US market exit, with management confident of margin

gains as operating leverage improves through FY26.



Opex weighs on near-term margins of generics; product pipeline to better

prospects:

1Q growth was muted because near-term margins are weighed

down by underutilized new facilities in peptides, fermentation, and US

manufacturing. Ramp-up costs of ~INR600m per quarter will continue

through 1H but are expected to normalize from 2HFY26 as capacity

utilization improves. The pipeline is rich, with launches of Liraglutide (EU, US,

and India), Sacubitril/Valsartan (US), and anti-infectives like Micafungin on

track. Biocon is also filing Semaglutide in Canada, Brazil, and other markets,

aiming for approvals by the end of CY26.



Net debt reduction underway:

The INR4.5b QIP—the company’s largest

fundraise since its IPO—has significantly strengthened Biocon’s balance

sheet. Proceeds are being deployed to retire high-cost obligations, with

September 2025

Company

Laurus Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Takeaway

USD200m of Goldman Sachs OCD already repaid, and further repayments to

Kotak/Edelweiss expected in FY26. Net debt now stands at USD1.15b, largely

at Biocon Biologics, but interest expenses will reduce meaningfully from 2Q

as debt is pared down.



Asset-turn to normalize in FY27/FY28:

Laurus has been under considerable

investment phase over past few years. With commercial benefit expected to

scale-up, the asset turn is expected to move upwards over next 2-3 years to

1.4x.



Continued advancement of pipeline with Big Pharma:

Post executing COVID

product with one large pharma innovator, LAURUS has been able to not only

make inroads with big pharma companies but also garner contracts for

products under development or under alternate source for commercial

supplies. Over a period of time, LAURUS has been able to build healthy

pipeline of projects under human health, animal health as well as crop

science.



Efforts to sustain ARV sales run-rate:

After initial hiccups on the funding

issue in US due to policy level changes, LAURUS has not witnessed any

disruption on the funding aspect in the institutional ARV business. Despite

price drops in this segment, management remains confident to maintain the

revenue run-rate, led by higher volume off-take.



Domestic market growth across existing therapies:

Ajanta aims to sustain

double-digit growth in India, outpacing the broader IPM through continued

expansion in core therapies like cardiology, ophthalmology, dermatology,

and pain. Newer segments such as gynecology and nephrology are expected

to contribute meaningfully in the coming years. Marketing expenses will

remain in the mid-teens of revenue as the company invests in branded

generics and therapy launches to secure long-term share gains.



Field force expansion to drive growth in Asia and Africa:

The company has

doubled its field force in emerging markets in the last three years, from 900

to 2000. Management guides for mid-teens growth in Asia for FY26, with

consistent momentum expected thereafter as chronic launches scale. In

Africa, branded generics are expected to grow in the mid- to high-single

digits this year, normalizing to double-digit growth from FY27 as the high

base effect fades. Institutional antimalarial revenues will remain low, with

only ~3% of total contribution going forward.



Steady ANDA filings and complex generics pipeline:

Management reiterated

guidance of ~10 ANDA filings (±2) during the year, ensuring a steady flow of

launches over the medium term. No major exclusivity expiries are

anticipated in FY26, supporting stable profitability from limited-competition

products. The pipeline remains focused on complex generics, which should

drive growth momentum beyond FY27.



Strong bed expansion pipeline across key markets:

The company plans to

Aster DM Healthcare

add 2,600 more beds through both greenfield and brownfield expansions,

targeting a total of over 7,800 beds. Key focus remains on Bangalore, where

1,439 beds are being added, including a newly announced 500-bed hospital

September 2025

Company

KIMS

Piramal Pharma

Takeaway

in Yeswanthpur. Commissioning timelines include Whitefield (159 beds) and

Kasargod (greenfield) in the next 2-3 months and Ongole in two quarters.

QCIL separately has a 1,200-bed pipeline, with group bed capacity expected

to surpass 14,000+ in 2-3 years.



Sustainable ARPOB growth and volume recovery:

Management expects

ARPOB to grow sustainably at 7-8% annually over the next 3-4 years,

supported by specialty mix enhancement (oncology, neurosciences), price

discipline, and improved payor mix. Oncology is positioned as a key lever to

further lift margins and ARPOB contribution. While ALOS-driven efficiency

gains may moderate, management sees consistent occupancy improvements

from volume recovery in Kerala and growth in core clusters. Overall, volume

growth of 7–8% combined with ARPOB expansion is expected to drive mid-

teen revenue growth over the medium term.



Merger execution on track with approvals secured:

The Aster-QCIL merger

is progressing on track. Shareholders have approved the preferential share

issuance, and CCI approval has been received. The strategic share swap has

been executed, with Aster acquiring 5% in QCIL in exchange for 3.6% in

Aster, and QCIL shares are now listed. Management reiterated confidence in

sustaining 20%+ margins and mid-teen revenue growth, underpinned by

ARPOB expansion, volume recovery, and synergy gains from the merger.



Work-in-progress for insurance empanelment at new facilities:

KIMS is

implementing efforts to get insurance coverage at Thane, Nasik and

Bengaluru. Specifically, for Thane and Bengaluru, it would take 9-12 months

for full empanelment, considering the bilateral negotiation. Insurance

empanelment at Nasik is expected to happen in 3-6 months.



Scale-up of new facilities to reduce their losses:

With 100 beds operational

at Thane, KIMS has achieved occupancy of 55% at this facility. Considering

the demand and number of patients being treated at the Thane facility, KIMS

remains confident of achieving EBITDA breakeven by 3QFY26.



Onboarded full-time doctors rather than visiting faculty at hospitals in

Maharashtra:

The conventional approach by doctors in Maharashtra has

been to associate with multiple hospitals as visiting faculty. KIMS has

formulated the plan to onboard full-time doctors with a condition that they

would be allowed to perform surgery at KIMS facilities only. As a part of their

collaboration with KIMS, doctors are not allowed to perform surgeries at any

other hospital outside KIMS.



Adding growth levers to drive 13-14% CAGR in Complex hospital generic

(CHG) segment:

With capacity expanded in India for Sevoflurane, PIRPHARM

would be utilizing this facility for ROW markets. The US facility would be

catering largely for US market. The supply constraint is impacting business of

injectable anesthesia and pain management segment within CHG. The issue

is expected to be resolved by FY27. PIRPHARM is also working on building

product pipeline in CHG segment to further add growth drivers in this

segment.



Aspiration to double CDMO business by FY30:

PIRPHARM expects growth in

this segment would be driven by scale-up of existing products and addition

September 2025

Company

Onesource specialty pharma

Takeaway

of newer contracts. The potential of on-patent large products remains

immense based on commentary from innovator customer. The inventory

normalization would revive sale of on-patent products in FY27. The funding

constraints and limited progress on bio-secure act is impacting near term

growth in this segment.



Enhancing capacity/capability for ADC segment:

PIRPHARM is expanding

capacity at Lexington for sterile injectable drug products. This is in addition

to Pound45m invested in Grangemouth. With this it would have

comprehensive presence across the manufacturing value chain in ADC

segment.



Capacity expansion on track to cater to increased customer needs:

From

the current cartridge capacity of 40m, Onesource is implementing capex to

ramp it up to 100m in FY27 and scaling it further to 200m in FY28.



Take-or-pay contracts protect business prospects as well:

In the markets

wherein generics market formation is expected in Jan’26, all customers

having planned or scheduled launches are backed by take-or-pay contracts

with Onesource. Interestingly, the company has started receiving RFPs for

the next wave of GLP-1 opportunities across molecules, indications and

markets.



Installing new capabilities in sterile injectables:

The Polish facility is

expected to only add facilities, but can cater to various markets due to

regulatory approval from multiple geographies in place. Notably Onesource

does not have further capacity available for sterile injectables at its site, and

hence, the Poland site comes in handy to cater to rising customer needs.



Steady same-stores sales growth:

DAHL has been implementing efforts

towards 14-15% same stores sales growth on the back of increased number

of surgeries as well as higher consultations/investigations. Latent demand as

well as enhanced marketing efforts backed by superior treatment services

has enabled better growth for DAHL.



On track to add 54 stores:

DAHL follows a scientific approach towards

Dr. Agarwal healthcare (DAHL)

opening centres in core as well as non-core markets. The detailed market

analysis to understand the volume of patients in the micro market along with

deeper understanding of competition provides insights to determine the

economic viability of opening eyecare at certain location. Accordingly, DAHL

is expected to open 31/10/7/6 facitlies in south/West/North/East region of

India. Alternatively, 27/28 additional centres would be secondary, ~3 would

be tertiary and remaining would be primary.



Higher focus on improving organic growth outlook:

Over past 6M, DAHL has

limited itself for any inorganic opportunites. In fact, it has been focusing on

organic growth. Also, company intends to cap the valuation to 9-10x

EV/EBITDA for inorganic opportunities, if any.

INFRASTRUCTURE

GMR Airports



Non-Aero Business: Revenue streams include duty-free, car parking, F&B,

and cargo.

September 2025

Company

Afcons Infrastructure

Takeaway



Duty-free assessed by spend per passenger – Delhi is currently at USD12, and

aims to improve this to USD15-16; average pax consuming duty-free is 12-

13%.



The company focuses on introducing internationally available products in

India to drive duty-free growth.



It has no intention to enter the airport lounge business.



Business mix: Aero contributes ~22%; the balance comes from non-aero.



Financials & capital structure: The company does not plan to reduce debt but

to extend the debt maturity profile.



Delhi Airport is expected to be cash positive next year; dividend payout to

the listed company is planned from FY26.



Growth strategy: Once Delhi Airport reaches pax ceiling, the focus will shift

to international passengers due to their higher non-aero spending.



The company is transitioning from a landlord to a land developer model at

Delhi Airport, with an aim to develop and monetize land assets.



Ownership of equipment like TBM provides operational advantage; ~17

TBMs are largely depreciated.



The company has guided for revenue growth of 20-25% for FY26.



Overseas projects deliver 200-300bp higher margins than domestic projects.



Marine and underground metro projects clock higher margins compared to

other segments.



The order book guidance for FY26 is INR500b, with a substantial uptick

expected in Surface Transport; Urban Infra is expected to grow in absolute

terms, while other divisions remain stable.



Working capital days are expected to reduce to 90 by FY26.



Net debt is expected at INR20-21b by FY26.



The company is actively considering bidding for tunnel projects in the North

East and water-related projects in Jammu & Kashmir.



The Tuticorin terminal is expected to be fully operational by 1QFY26.



Jaigarh and Dharamtar volumes were impacted by scheduled shutdowns.



Lumpy growth is expected following the 5 MTPA capacity expansion at the



LOGISTICS

JSW Infra



DELHIVERY



Dovli plant.

Expansion at Jaigarh and Dharamtar is expected to be completed by FY27,

with operations commencing in FY28. A significant growth spurt is expected

from FY28 onwards.

Some terminals have higher capacity but lower concession periods, limiting

utilization.

The company plans to enter railway logistics, expanding beyond CFS/ICD

operations. Large volumes from the JSW group, currently handled by third-

party logistics players, could potentially be shifted to JSW Infra.

By FY30, JSW Infra expects group cargo contribution to be ~55%.

Lowest-cost provider in the industry; operates PTL and Express business

together, providing operating leverage.

September 2025

Company

DTDC

Takeaway



Delhivery’s dependence on Meesho was low, so its insourcing had a lower

impact compared to other players. Valmo (logistics arm of Meesho) lacks a

strong logistics network.



Ekart is incurring significant losses; hence, the threat from Flipkart expanding

Ekart remains low.



PTL margins are expected to improve with future volume growth and better

pricing.



The company does not intend to implement annual price hikes. Price

adjustments will be strategic and based on the demand scenario and cost

dynamics.



The company handles 176m parcels; its network includes 3,500 corporate

customers, 10,000 SMEs, and 16,500 channel partners.



From FY20-25, revenue CAGR stood at 12%, EBITDA margin at ~9%, and

ROCE at 25%.



It operates an asset-light model with 4,000+ franchisees. Network reach:

~15,300 pin codes; 464 branches.



20% of revenue comes from international markets.



The e-commerce business delivers high-teen margins.



Rapid service generates ~3-4% higher gross margin vs traditional logistics.



It has developed in-house technology to enhance logistics efficiency.



Technology spending: ~5–7% of revenue.



Debt-free balance sheet.



Currently, domestic prices are at 7-8% discounted to Chinese steel prices.



Currently the VAP stood at 60% and JSTL targets to be at +50% ahead.



Import volume from china has substantially reduced on account of safeguard

METALS

JSW Steel

duty of 12%.



CRGO is growing steadily at 6-8% CAGR and the company is looking to cater

the domestic market primarily as India faces high imports in this segment.



CRGO capex requirement of INR70b for 100kt as it is a high VAP margin

product.



JSTL has ~1.6b of mine reserve at 100% premium and doesn’t hold any

legacy mine.



BPSL – company have filed review petition and court have withdrawn the

earlier judgement. As of now the hearing is done and ruling is being kept

secured, and judgement is likely to be coming later this month.



VEDL has growth Capex Plan of ~USD10b, spread across 5 key segments i.e.

Aluminium, Zinc, Oil & Gas, Iron & Steel and Power.



VEDL required 12mtpa of Bauxite, of which 4mtpa comes from OMC (long-

term contract) and rest from captive mines.

VEDANTA



Vedanta is scaling up captive coal mining from 2.6mtpa to 36.6mtpa by FY28,

ensuring cost leadership, supply security, and integration for aluminium and

power growth.



Captive coal prices stood at INR0.6/kcal, which is INR0.2/kcal saving largely

drive through Ghogharpalli Mine which has comparatively better grade.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



VEDL plan to achieve USD75/t (vs. current cost) of coal cost saving led by

higher captive share.



USD200/t of cost saving through lower alumina imports on account of

smelter ramp-up



USD100/t of NSR improvement is expected over higher VAP share



China has capped volume at 45mtpa and globally no other country is adding

capacity apart from India. Prices are expected to remain strong led by

supply-demand deficit.



Pricing:

Currently, LME prices are hovering around ~USD2,600/t and are

expected to remain at this level due to a supply-demand deficit.



China’s volume is capped at 45mt and will continue to face a supply deficit in

the near future.



HNDL’s upstream volume mix consists of 70% domestic sales and 30%

exports, mainly to Southeast Asian countries.



Volumes:

India’s annual aluminum imports amount to ~2-2.2mt, of which

~1.5mt are scrap imports.



Over the last couple of years, the industry has posted a 10% CAGR, which is

HINDALCO

expected to continue in the coming years, mainly supported by the growing

packaging and electrical sectors.



Coal:

HNDL’s coal mix includes 63% linkages, 25% e-auction, and the

remaining from captive. By FY33, the company targets to achieve ~70%

through captive mines and the remaining 30% through renewables, leading

to a cost saving of USD200/t.



The box cut for the Chalka mine (stripping ratio 4:1) is scheduled for Dec’25,



with ramp-up expected to take an additional 18 months. Meanwhile, the

Meenakshi mine, having the lowest stripping ratio of 1:1, will get

commissioned by FY28.

US tariffs affect both semis and end products. In the US market, HNDL mainly

exports end products from its Korea-based capacity.

Management reiterated its FY26 crude steel production guidance of 9-10mt,

with incremental volumes of 0.2-0.3mt expected from existing facilities and

0.7-1.6mt from new expansions.

BOF-II will start its first metal output in next 15-20 days.

Import volume from china has substantially reduced on account of

government quality control through BIS and safeguard duty of 12%.



Currently, domestic prices have corrected 3-4% QoQ in 2QFY26 and

Jindal Steel

remained 7-8% discounted to Chinese steel prices



Domestic prices is likely to improve with receding monsoon. The early festive

season has kept price under pressure.



JSPL owns two iron ore mines in Kasia (7.5mt) and Tensa (3.11mt) in Odisha,

which fulfill ~60% its requirement. The rest is purchased via auctions and

linkages from Odisha and Chhattisgarh mines.



The Tensa mine nearing to its closure stage and the declining output from

the Tensa mine will get offset by the ramping up of newly won Roida–I iron

ore mine.

September 2025

Company

Oil & Gas

Takeaway



The slurry pipeline project is on schedule for commissioning in FY26.



LPG under-recovery down to INR35/cyl:

The current LPG under-recovery is

INR35/cyl. Management expects this to come down to INR20/cyl over the

next month.



Auto-fuel marketing margins soften:

Management expects petrol/diesel

HPCL

marketing margins to moderate. In fact, despite a recent strong increase in

diesel refining spreads, diesel marketing margins are negative for HPCL.



CGD business:

HPCL is EBITDA positive in the CGD business. The company

operates across 15 geographical areas. CNG/PNG sales stood at 43tmt/2tmt

in 1QFY26. The company has incurred capex of INR15b p.a. for the CG

business. The FY26 target EBITDA for this segment is INR1.4b, with PAT

breakeven expected in around 2-3 years.

Real Estate

Lodha Developers



Customer Perception and Management:

Compared to peers such as Oberoi

and DLF, Lodha emphasizes not only scale but also post-handover

management of projects. While Oberoi buildings retain a premium feel even

after 15 years, Lodha highlights its leadership in volumes and its distinctive

practice of managing societies even after possession. At handover, it collects

five years of maintenance fees, after which residents can either retain Lodha

as the society manager or opt for independent management.



Community Engagement:

Residents in Lodha developments report a more

active and engaging lifestyle, with the company fostering community living

through cricket tournaments and various activities that keep customers

connected and invested in the ecosystem.



Business Model and Margins:

Unlike Oberoi and DLF, which focus only on

premium and luxury segments delivering 45-50% margins and rely on

outsourcing, Lodha adopts a scalable, multi-location, multi-segment

approach with in-house execution capabilities. The company consistently

targets 30-35% EBITDA margins, leveraging scalability rather than scarcity-

driven pricing.



Projects and Expansion:

Key projects include Mahalaxmi (INR60b, 7 acres),

Godrej Properties

September 2025

Sewri (INR70b, 7 acres), and Kandivali (18-acre land parcel, with 5 acres

already acquired). Lodha prefers JDAs over outright acquisitions to reduce

capital intensity, with a current mix of ~60% JDA and ~40% outright. The

company continues to scale geographically—Pune presales are expected to

grow from INR25b in FY25 to INR35b in FY26, Bengaluru has expanded from

2 to 5 locations, and NCR is in its pilot phase.



Palava Ecosystem:

Palava remains a key driver, with sales projected to rise

20% in FY26. Infrastructure improvements such as the upcoming Airoli-Katai

tunnel are set to reduce commute time from 45 minutes to 20 minutes,

further boosting demand. Pricing in Palava ranges from INR10,000/sqft for

mid-income to INR16,000/sqft for mid-to-premium housing. By FY30,

presales of INR80b are targeted, with the township already housing 45,000

families (about 200,000 people), 90% of whom are end-users.



Market Demand & Supply:

Residential demand is driven by a focused set of

buyers. India sold ~1b sqft of housing area in FY25, but supply remains

Company

Takeaway

constrained due to limited virgin land and reliance on redevelopment,

particularly in Mumbai. This supply discipline helps prevent oversupply.



Business Positioning & Portfolio:

The company is among the top three

developers in each market, with North India sales of INR105b. Its strategy is

residential-led, with only 20–25% asset exposure in commercial, as

commercial yields are less attractive. Land acquisitions are carefully chosen

after micro-market assessments, with inventory mainly priced between

INR20m and INR150m per unit.



Financials & Inventory:

Sales collections average 20–30% within 90–120



days. Cost of sales is ~3.7% and marketing cost ~1%. The company has an

unsold inventory worth INR1.15t and expects to surpass its annual sales

guidance by 2Q–3QFY26. Despite business development spends, net debt

will be capped below INR100b.

Business Development & Diligence:

All BD opportunities undergo rigorous

technical, financial, operational, and construction due diligence. Business

heads validate documentation and execution feasibility, and only after

approvals are secured does the company finalize deals.

Execution & Completions:

Execution is the biggest challenge in real estate,

but the company remains disciplined with strong project management

practices. Its largest completions are expected in FY28 and beyond. Quality

of sales is high, reflected in very low cancellation rates.

Positioning & Sales Focus:

Presales remain equally strong across regions,

with launches in Thane given the same importance as Bandra or Worli. The

company maintains full focus on every product, ensuring consistent

performance.

Redevelopment Advantage:

Redevelopment projects are highly viable, with

costs mainly limited to tenant rentals and rehabilitation. Launch collections

comfortably fund these projects, especially in affluent Mumbai locations

such as Malabar Hill.

premium sales due to product quality. In Mumbai, large portions of

collections are secured within the first six months, strengthening cash flows.



Pricing & Collections:

Despite industry price competition, Oberoi achieves

Oberoi Realty



Business Development & Operations:

The BD team is actively expanding in

Phoenix Mills

Gurgaon with a dedicated office. Demolition contractors are appointed,

though redevelopment construction contracts are pending. Residential

presence supports, rather than impacts, mall footfalls—for example, Sky City

Mall benefits from adjoining residents.



Hospitality & Retail Outlook:

Hotel occupancy is lower YoY due to seasonal

travel and fewer conferences. Sky City has minimal inventory left, and its

new tower launch is expected to sell well. The company is committed to

building a mall in Thane but finds Mulund retail unattractive.



Strategic Evolution:

Phoenix Mills has steadily transformed into India’s

leading retail-led mixed-use developer, anchored around destination malls

with integrated offices, residences, and hospitality. In 1QFY26, it

consolidated full ownership of ISMDPL (its JV with CPPIB), strengthening

control of its flagship assets and reinforcing its long-term expansion strategy.

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Current Portfolio:

Currently, the company operates ~11msf of retail space

across eight cities with >95% leased occupancy, ~4.8msf of completed

Grade-A offices (including the newly certified Chennai project), and over

3.5msf of completed residential developments. Hospitality assets such as St.

Regis Mumbai and Courtyard Agra add further diversification.



Business Model Choices:

Phoenix Mills follows an annuity-plus-development

model, balancing stable rental income from malls and offices with cyclical

gains from residential sales. This diversification reduces earnings volatility

compared with single-segment peers, while disciplined capital allocation and

joint venture structures help accelerate expansion at lower capital intensity.



Select Projects:

The company has leased ~0.41msf of office space,

repositioned underperforming cinema zones into multi-use entertainment

formats, and delivered residential collections of INR99 crore (up 32% YoY).

Upcoming expansion of mixed-use assets and continued demand in premium

consumption hubs provide strong growth visibility into FY27 and beyond.



Shift from High Streets to Malls:

Stabilized malls continue to gain traction

over high streets, which face structural disadvantages such as parking

constraints, weather, and limited family-centric offerings. Unlike the West,

where outdoor leisure dominates, Indian families increasingly prefer gated

mall environments that combine shopping, dining, and entertainment under

one roof, making malls the dominant retail format.



Entertainment and Experience:

Cinemas remain an important driver, with

southern markets performing better due to stronger fan following and

higher occupancies. In contrast, North and West cinemas remain at FY20

occupancy levels due to weak content and high pricing. Nexus is rationalizing

screens in larger malls (from ~9 to 5-6), with vacated space repurposed for

live events, comedy sessions, trampoline parks, and other experiential

formats to enhance customer engagement.



Tenant Adjustments and Rentals:

Where footfalls or store-level

Nexus REITS

consumption are softer, tenants are accommodated through relocations

(often moving to upper floors with 20-25% lower rentals) or resizing of store

formats. Only 1-2% of brands are typically asked to exit, reflecting high

overall tenant stickiness. Occupancy across the portfolio remains robust at

~95%, supported by strong renewals and healthy leasing momentum in

1QFY26.



Financial Performance and Outlook:

Rentals have trended upward in

1QFY26, with average trading densities improving by mid-teens YoY, led by

categories such as F&B, athleisure, and premium fashion. Portfolio-wide

revenues remain diversified, with non-fashion categories such as dining,

entertainment, and lifestyle now accounting for ~45% of mall sales, reducing

dependence on traditional anchors. Nexus continues to prioritize

premiumization and experience-led formats to sustain growth.



Consumption Trends and Categories:

Overall consumption in malls is

growing at 8-9% CAGR, though category shifts are evident. Hypermarkets

have reduced their contribution to sales, replaced by rising demand for

gourmet and premium food formats. Fashion, which faced pressure in FY24-

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

25 due to a high base and increased competition, has started normalizing in

1QFY26 with steady recovery in footfalls.



Company Profile:

Anant Raj Limited is a Delhi-NCR-based developer engaged

in residential, commercial, hospitality, and data centers. It operates in Delhi,

Haryana, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh, supported by a debt-light land

bank.



Real Estate Portfolio:

The residential pipeline covers ~2.08 msf across GH-2

to GH-5 phases (FY25–FY30), with GH-2 launched in March 2025, GH-4

planned for January 2026, and GH-5 beyond FY27. Commercial projects, such

as the Ashok Estate Community Center and Commercial Tower in Gurugram,

are slated for 1QFY26, alongside Estate Apartments. Its hospitality exposure

includes serviced apartments and hotels near IGI Airport as well as within

townships.



Data Center Operations:

As of 1QFY26, 28 MW IT load is operational across

Anant Raj

Manesar and Panchkula, with buildings ready to support up to 157 MW. The

pipeline is set to expand to ~63 MW by FY27 and ~307 MW by FY32 across

Rai, Manesar, and Panchkula campuses.



Unit Economics and Financials:

With a capex of INR250-280m per MW (vs.

the industry average INR550-600m), enabled by owned land and shell

retrofits, Anant Raj enjoys strong cost advantages. At INR29-30m annual

revenue per MW, the 307 MW portfolio could generate ~INR90b revenue by

FY32, with data center and cloud revenues projected at INR12b by FY27.



Strategic Positioning:

By combining steady real estate cash flows with

scalable, low-capex data centre expansion, Anant Raj offers a dual-engine

growth model. Positioned against peers like Orange Business—which

provides services without land ownership—the company is differentiated by

its integrated campus ownership, creating resilience through India’s

accelerating digital transformation.



Market Position and Financials:

Lotus was listed on NSE and BSE in August

2025, with its IPO oversubscribed 74x. The company is net debt-free with

INR9.05b cash, supported by strong execution and premium pricing.



Business Model:

Over 95% of projects are redevelopment or JDAs,

reinforcing an asset-light approach. The focus remains on luxury and ultra-

luxury, with gains from higher FSI in 2016 and 2018.



Portfolio:

The company has completed four projects in Juhu and Andheri

Lotus Developers And Realty

West, with a pipeline of 16 projects (3 msf carpet area; INR120-130b GDV).

Expansion is underway into South/Central Mumbai, with 15 projects asset-

light.



Execution and Launches:

Projects are delivered 12-18 months ahead of RERA

Keystone Developers

September 2025

timelines, aided by BIM and VR tools. Three launches worth INR15b are due

in September 2025, with further launches of INR20b by FY26-end.



Growth Outlook:

Presales are guided at INR11-13b in FY26 and projected to

grow 3-5x over three years. Pricing (INR40,000-60,000 psf in FY25) is set to

rise with premium launches, including the INR17b redevelopment of

Shahrukh Khan’s bungalow.



Company Overview and Outlook:

Keystone Realtors (Rustomjee) is a leading

Mumbai-focused developer with deep expertise in redevelopment,

100

Company

Takeaway

particularly in the western suburbs. Backed by a strong pipeline and recent

record-breaking 1QFY26 presales, the company is well-positioned to capture

demand in both premium and mid-market segments, with guidance

suggesting a strong growth trajectory through FY26 and beyond.



Business Model:

Over 90% of the portfolio comprises redevelopment

projects, underscoring Keystone’s asset-light strategy. Recently, it signed

three major redevelopment deals (GTB Nagar, Lokhandwala Cluster,

Swarganga CHSL) with a combined GDV of INR77.3b, surpassing its full-year

FY26 business development guidance in just one quarter.



Portfolio:

Keystone has already launched three large projects recently —Pali

Hill (Bandra), Balmoral (Chembur), and Cliff Tower (Bandra)—with a

cumulative saleable area of ~0.9msf and GDV of INR39.7b, achieving 57% of

FY26 launch targets. The overall launch pipeline for FY26 remains weighted

towards the mid-market segment (INR10-30m ticket size) to capitalize on

stronger absorption.



Execution and Launches:

Despite market softness in some categories,

MAX ESTATES

absorption has been steady with ~8% of launched inventory already sold in

premium/super-premium projects. Keystone continues to leverage its

redevelopment expertise to accelerate timelines, while resizing or

repositioning offerings to better align with customer preferences. Upcoming

mid-market launches, including GTB Nagar, are expected to drive higher

velocity.



Growth Outlook:

With presales momentum, robust BD additions, and a

launch pipeline skewed to high-demand price points, Keystone expects FY26

presales to materially exceed guidance. Recent collections growth and a low

leverage profile support strong cash flows. Over the medium term, the

company targets sustained growth led by redevelopment scale-up and mid-

market demand tailwinds, positioning itself as Mumbai’s leading

redevelopment platform.



Geographic Focus:

The company operates exclusively in the Delhi NCR

region, with a portfolio of 17msf across Delhi, Gurgaon, and Noida in both

commercial and residential segments.



Commercial Portfolio:

Its Max House projects follow a build-to-lease model,

commanding rentals of INR135/sqft vs the market average of INR80-85/sqft.

Completed assets include Max Square, Max House 2, and Max One, while

under-construction projects such as Sector 105, Delhi One, Max 65, and Max

Square Two are expected to drive rental income to INR723/sqft at peak

occupancy by FY29.



Residential Projects:

Estate 128 in Noida, launched in June 2022 at

INR18,500/sqft, with a second phase slated for December 2024 at

INR25,500/sqft, is scheduled for possession in FY27-28. The second

residential development, Estate 360 in Gurgaon, was launched in September

2024 and is expected to be delivered by FY29. Margins stand at 40-45% for

Estate 128 and 20-25% for Estate 360.



Growth and Pipeline:

Presales are projected to grow at an 88% CAGR to

INR60-65b over FY24-26 and reach INR140-150b over FY27-28. Upcoming

September 2025

101

Company

Takeaway

launches have a GDV of INR95b, split between one project in Gurgaon and

two in Noida, with half expected in the current year and the balance next

year.



Strategic Approach:

Unlike traditional land banking for long-term

accumulation, the company focuses on acquiring parcels with monetization

potential within 3-5 years through a mix of JDAs and outright acquisitions.

With luxury housing forming around 25% of NCR demand, the company’s 2-3

msf sales translate into a comfortable 10-15% market share.



Strategic Evolution:

The company made its first outright acquisition in 2006

with the flagship Signature Island project in BKC. However, over the years, it

gradually transitioned to an asset-light model. This shift allowed the business

to scale faster while reducing capital intensity and risk exposure.



Current Portfolio:

As of 1QFY26, it has INR398b of pending GDV to be

launched or sold, with all projects located in prime areas of the Mumbai

Metropolitan Region (MMR). The pipeline reflects a strong presence in high-

demand micro-markets, strengthening its positioning in the premium and

luxury space.



Margin Profile:

The company targets EBITDA margins of 45%+ in the uber

SUNTECK REALTY

luxury segment, reinforcing its focus on high profitability in premium

categories. This margin profile stands well above industry averages, driven

by its pricing power in marquee locations.



Business Model Choices:

During 2013-17, the DM (development

management) model gained traction in the industry, with peers offering 8-

9% revenue share. However, the company sought contracts wherein it can

earn 14-15% revenue share, which was not offered by any partner, leading

to no new launches in that period. At the peak of the NBFC crisis in 2018, it

eventually launched the large Naigaon project, which provided much-needed

scale and momentum.



Select Projects:

Among its pipeline, the Andheri project carries a GDV of

INR11b across 0.55 msf, complementing its broader mix of premium and

luxury developments. Such projects add diversity within MMR and provide a

balance between luxury flagships and scalable mid-income developments.

Retail

FY26 target:

Management expects revenue to return to FY24 levels by FY26, driven by strong

bookings in recent placements, improving disposable incomes with the recent

direct and indirect tax cuts (which potentially take six months to reflect in

consumption pick-up). However, EBITDA could still remain below FY24 levels due

to investments in branded apparel, overall cost inflation, and macro

uncertainties in the garmenting business.

Medium-term outlook:

Raymond Lifestyle (RLL) can deliver ~12% annual revenue growth in the steady

state, with ~6-7% annual growth in branded textile and high teens growth in

other segments.

US tariff impact:

US contributes ~INR6b in revenue for RLL, of which ~INR2b is currently met

through exports from Ethiopia (which has 10% tariffs). Management noted that

the Ethiopia facility can contribute further ~INR1-1.5b to US sales, while the

Raymond Lifestyle

September 2025

102

Company

Takeaway

remaining impact could be negated by higher sales to the UK and other

geographies.

Store additions:

Management noted that each brand can individually scale up to 250 outlets over

the medium term. The recent store closures (including for Ethnix) were factored

into the business model (expected ~10-15% closures, given the accelerated pace

of expansions in the last few years). Going ahead, store additions would be more

calibrated with a focus on profitability.



Demand:

Urban demand should see gradual improvement as macro drivers

are turning positive.



Channel-wise performance:

Delivery channel profits continue to grow, while

dine-in channel is seeing a gradual uptick. Management stated that 1/3rd of

dine-in transactions are done through the app. Customers have the

convenience of sitting and ordering from the table by scanning QR. RBA is

piloting 15-mins delivery within a 1.5km radius.



ADS to improve going forward:

For ADS improvement, RBA is undertaking

Restaurant Brands Asia

Go Fashion

various initiatives such as 1) accelerated pace of innovation, 2) with strong

presence in the value segment, RBA is now focusing on the mid-value range

with offerings such as Whopper Jr., and 3) revamped King’s collection.



Indonesia business:

In Indonesia, management is seeing a gradual

improvement in ADS, and the dine-in footfalls are also improving. The

improvement is seen as the macro headwinds are cooling off and

geopolitical tensions are easing. However, RBA is seeing increased

competitive intensity in the fried chicken space from regional players. The

company is investing in marketing campaigns to enhance brand awareness

and drive customer engagement.



Guidance:

RBA plans to open 60-80 new restaurants every year and plans to

have 800 restaurants by FY29 from current 519 restaurants. RBA indicated

that ~30% of new stores will be added through infrastructure-led

opportunities such as highway drive-thru, airports, metros, etc. RBA aspires

to achieve 70% gross margin level by FY29.

Go Fashion seeks to differentiate itself in an increasingly crowded apparel

market by positioning as a specialist and category owner in women’s bottom

wear, a space it originally disrupted. While competition has intensified after

Covid with value retailers and fast-fashion brands expanding aggressively, Go

Colors emphasizes its unique breadth of portfolio, making it a one-stop

destination for essentials rather than trend-driven fashion. This ‘everyday wear’

positioning gives the brand resilience, as products are functional and not subject

to short fashion cycles.

North & West warm up, South yet to shine

The last two years have been challenging, with subdued consumer demand and

shifting wallet share toward leisure, travel, and services. Revenue and SSSG have

stagnated, lifting rent-to-revenue ratios and pressuring profitability. Demand

patterns now vary by region: North and West India have begun showing mid-

single-digit growth, while the South, historically the largest contributor, remains

soft but is expected to recover.

103

September 2025

Company

GNG Electronics

Takeaway



Product refresh as a growth lever:

Management is addressing past gaps in

innovation by introducing new styles and colors to re-energize footfalls.



Expansion discipline:

In store rollout, it now prioritizes spacing and avoids

cannibalization. It is entering new cities and safeguarding store economics.



Macro tailwinds:

Festive demand, income tax relief, and GST benefits

provide additional support for recovery.

Building an Indian Uniqlo, one step at a time

Go Fashion has ventured into topwear to create its next growth engine as the

core business approaches maturity. Consumer research showed customers

perceive Go Colors as an everyday essentials brand, highlighting a white space in

tops that are functional and versatile rather than fast fashion. The company has

launched a pilot in 15-20 stores, with 85-90% of the assortment in women’s and

a small share in men’s basics like polos, T-shirts, and joggers.



Early traction, cautious optimism:

Initial consumer response is positive, but

management stresses repeat purchases as the true test.



Strategic complement to bottoms:

Core, subtle, daily-wear tops are

designed to reinforce the brand’s ‘mix-and-match’ positioning.



Scalable runway:

If successful, the model could evolve into an “Indian

Uniqlo” proposition for everyday essentials.

Outlook

Despite near-term challenges, Go Fashion commands a 9-11% share of the

INR50-60b branded bottomwear market and sees ample runway to double

revenue in four to five years. With cash flows funding adjacencies, a sharper

product refresh cycle, and disciplined growth execution, the company is

positioned to capture a long-term structural opportunity.

Guidance



The company is targeting at least 25% revenue growth in FY26, with

significant room for consistent margin expansion, driven by its ‘Buy Better,

Refurbish Better and Sell Better’ strategy.

Impact of US tariffs



The company faces no major impact from US tariffs as: i) majority of its

exports are done through the UAE facility, ii) US procured refurbished

devices would attract tariff only on the value addition (which is a fraction of

overall cost), iii) items under the code HSN 847 have significant exemptions,

and iv) tariffs on exports would be applicable for new devices as well, which

would maintain an attractive price arbitrage.

Moats



The company sells refurbished PCs that look and feel like new, at one-third

the price of a new one.



The company provides a three-year warranty on refurbished devices, helping

to gain customer trust.



It has a complete supply chain presence from sourcing to refurbishing and

selling, thereby creating strong entry barriers.

Typical unit economics



Typically, the company procures an A-grade laptop at INR15,000, with

refurbishment costs of INR2,000 and an additional INR1,000 for part

replacements and other miscellaneous expenses. A ~20% markup brings the

selling price to distributors to INR21,600, with the final selling price—after

104

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

distributor margin—at ~INR22,600, compared to INR70,000 for a new laptop

with similar configuration.



The purchase price is adjusted for the quality of the laptop procured or any

part that the company has to replace, so as to ensure that unit economics

are maintained.



The incidence of warranty is ~2%, but the cost incurred is minimal at 0.1% of

sales, as the company’s core philosophy is ‘Repair over Replace’.



Demand outlook:

TCS has observed pent-up demand in banking and retail. It

TECHNOLOGY

also believes there is potential to gain market share by tapping into new

addressable markets driven by AI. TCS is actively exploring opportunities in

non-CIO budgets such as CFO and cybersecurity, expanding ‘AI for business’

from ‘AI for IT’. While recent client-specific issues impacted growth (which

were due to negotiations/rescoping rather than execution issues),

competitive positioning remains intact. BSNL ramp up is expected from 3Q

onwards.



Organizational restructuring:

The company recently rationalized its

workforce at the managerial level, releasing around 2% of its workforce to

enable more agile delivery. It plans to add 40,000 freshers in FY26.

Leadership changes include Aarti as COO, Amit Kapoor leading AI services

and transformation, and Mangesh Sathe as Chief Strategy Officer, focusing

on geographic expansion, M&A, and hyper-scaler partnerships. The company

is reimagining the service delivery across all horizontals. Its H1B dependence

is low as it employs more localized staff in geographies.



AI and productivity gains:

AI is embedded across the project lifecycle,

including use cases such as coding assistance and data labeling. Pricing

remains largely fixed or T&M, as ROI on outcome-based models is evolving,

though outcome-based models show higher margins. Revenue deflation

from steady-state productivity gains will be offset by higher business

volumes.



Demand and verticals:

Technology shifts remain net positive for the

industry, though they often cannibalize legacy services. Infosys is

accelerating its digital growth faster than its peers. BFSI is stable,

Manufacturing remains weak, Hi-Tech faces discretionary softness, and

Communications benefits from deal ramp-ups.



AI and technology adoption:

Enterprise AI remains a differentiator, with

TCS

Infosys

strong traction in BFSI. Infosys is now a strategic AI partner to ~50% of its top

20 BFSI clients. Use cases include KYC, onboarding, portfolio management,

retail productivity gains, auto GCC setups, and 5G monetization in telecom.

Adoption is constrained by ROI visibility, data/talent debt, and macro

uncertainty.



Margins:

Industry-wide margins have compressed with rising delivery costs,

but Infosys has identified specific levers under

Project Maximus

to improve

efficiency. Selective improvement has already been achieved, with further

gains expected once growth revives. Pricing remains more stable than peers

due to Maximus-led discipline. EBIT margin guidance of 20-22% was

maintained, with FCF conversion expected at >100% of profit.

September 2025

105

Company

HCLT

Takeaway



Demand:

The demand environment remained stable, with discretionary

spending trends differing across verticals. In Financial Services and

Technology, spending has not worsened as previously expected, though

overall discretionary budgets continue to be influenced by macro and tariff

dynamics.



AI & productivity:

Agentic AI solutions are gaining traction in transformation

and operational efficiency, with productivity benefits of 30-35% in SLDC.

Clients remain cautious on large-scale GenAI investments, preferring to

evaluate the right solutions before committing, but adoption is expected to

accelerate through FY26.



Verticals and deals:

Auto and manufacturing remain under stress, but US

automakers are more open to offshore cost-saving than in the past, while

Europe lags with slower decision cycles. Two large deals expected in 1Q

slipped to 2Q, though delays were unrelated to macro factors. The pipeline

remains strong in digital, application modernization, and ER&D, with traction

in telecom engineering services post the CTG acquisition.



Margin:

EBIT margin stood at 16.3%, impacted by lower utilization, ramp-

downs in automotive, and a client bankruptcy. Restructuring of underutilized

overseas facilities will weigh on near-term margins, with normalization

expected by FY27. GTM investments will have ~30bp impact, while lower

utilization will have ~20bp impact in FY26. Management maintains a margin

outlook of 17-18%.



Growth and Vertical outlook:

LTIM is witnessing relative outperformance in

LTIM

manufacturing (ENU) and retail. Tech vertical is rebasing after AI-driven

productivity pass backs. Growth this year is led by Ex-Tech & BFSI, with

sequential improvement expected. Public services vertical will benefit from

PAN 2.0. Margins are improving through cost realignment, with 100 bps

expansion targeted (ex. wage hikes). Company believes current growth is

driven by wallet share gain rather discretionary spend led.



Deal wins and sales transformation initiative:

Large deals and AI-led pivots

are central to growth, supported by a dedicated large deals team under

Nachiket Deshpande. Sales transformation emphasizes engaging beyond

CIO/CTO to include CFOs, CMOs, and procurement heads. Recent large wins

across industrials and consumer sectors highlight competitive strength.

Company noted that it needs to get more consultative approach in Sales

delivery.



AI Infusion – Mode 1 and Mode 2:

AI is infused both internally and client-

facing. Mode 1 drives internal productivity and margin expansion (leaning

cost structures), while Mode 2 focuses on client transformation through

agentic AI solutions such as contact centers and marketing (“Blueverse

Craftstudio platform”). The company is emphasizing fresher induction and

skill development, with 4–5 months of training before deployment.



Demand:

The environment remains dynamic, with a mixed outlook across

TECHM

verticals. Telecom has stabilized, BFSI continues to be the fastest-growing

vertical, while Manufacturing and Hi-Tech face headwinds from automotive

softness and semiconductor-specific cuts. Retail is showing early progress

106

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

with a large US client win. Management expects FY27 growth to exceed

Industry average, supported by the Turbocharge program, expansion into

must-have Fortune 500 accounts, and focus on margin accretive large deals.



AI & Productivity:

GenAI adoption remains at an early stage, but enterprises

are beginning to realize 20-25% savings in pilots, according to management.

Clients prefer consulting + implementation partners, and TECHM is

positioning with digital platforms, API monetization, and vertical-specific

services. Productivity benefits are also being driven by pyramid optimization,

outcome-based pricing, and better FPP:TM mix. Management highlights

board-level engagement on AI, though large-scale deployments remain

cautious.



Margins:

Margin expansion is expected to be driven by lower subcontracting

costs, increased offshoring in fixed-price contracts, and stronger execution

and governance. SG&A rationalization and centralized support structures

provide additional levers. Management also remains confident of achieving

its FY27 EBIT margin guidance of 15%, supported by operating leverage and

improved deal profitability.



Growth and vertical outlook:

Growth is led by BFSI and Hi-Tech, followed by



Persistent Systems



Mphasis

healthcare. Around two-thirds of revenues come from product engineering,

with the rest from data and AI. Sub-verticalization of the existing verticals is

underway, and Europe is being explored as a potential M&A opportunity.

Deal and pricing trends:

Contracts are gradually shifting from T&M toward

fixed-price and outcome-based models, though T&M remains the majority.

Delays in project kick-offs are being observed. Recent wins in the USD25-

30m range reflect capability-led strength rather than price competition, with

private equity channels aiding access to portfolio companies.

SASVA Proposition:

SasVA, Persistent’s proprietary AI platform, delivers 30-

35% efficiency across SDLC by optimizing coding, testing, and debugging. It

has started winning sizable deals after early POCs, driving higher revenue per

employee and margin accretion.

Demand outlook:

Decision-making continues to be more deliberate as

enterprises navigate the current environment. Growth momentum has been

sustained through deal wins and underlying business resilience. It expects to

clock ~2x industry growth on the back of strong 1Q performance and steady

TCV-to-revenue conversion.

Deal TCV:

The pipeline has improved significantly, with a growing share of

net new TCV, offering revenue predictability. The company witnessed the

largest-ever pipeline, led by Mphasis AI platforms, and recorded the highest-

ever TCV wins in 1Q, driven by large deals. AI-led deals are increasing, as

around 68% of deals are AI-led. This is on account of the company doubling

down on its proprietary platforms, NeoZeta and NeoCrux. The company is

also seeing a higher share of proactive deal wins.

range. It is operating in the mid-point of that range. Rupee depreciation will

be a tailwind. Going forward, it expects divergence between headcount



Margins:

The company is targeting operating margin in the 14.75-15.75%

September 2025

107

Company

Takeaway

growth and revenue growth. The company also noted a shift toward fixed-

price business models.



Demand & Growth:

The demand environment remains consistent, with

Hexaware Technologies

decision-making cycles slightly elongated, though management views the

slowdown as cyclical rather than structural. Financial Services and Travel

continue to be the key growth drivers, while Manufacturing and Consumer

face macro-led delays. Opportunities in cloud modernization and GCC-led

models remain strong, with the SMC acquisition enhancing access to large-

scale GCC spending. Management expects sequential growth to improve

through 2H, backed by a healthy pipeline of both large and mid-sized deals.



AI & Platforms:

HEXT continues to differentiate through its proprietary

platforms —Amaze for cloud modernization, Tensar in infrastructure, and

Rapido in automation—while integrating AI into delivery for productivity

gains. The strategy is to build a ‘GCC 2.0’ model by combining SMC’s deep

GCC expertise with Hexaware’s transformation capabilities, positioning the

company as a specialist alternative to traditional BOT models. While GenAI

adoption is still measured, early pilots are seeing positive traction, and wider

enterprise adoption is expected to pick up over the medium term.



Margin & Profitability:

EBITDA margin stood at 17.2%, supported by

utilization gains and a favorable offshore mix, though ERP rollout costs and

restructuring continue to create near-term variability. Merit-based salary

hikes will take effect from 1st Jul’25, with a more moderate approach than in

prior cycles. Management has maintained its 17.1–17.4% margin guidance.



Market & Scale:

Zinka addresses India’s USD170-175b trucking spend

Zinka Logistics Solutions

through an end-to-end ecosystem spanning payments, telematics, loads, and

financing. With over 8 lakh transacting customers, the platform serves as an

end-to-end ecosystem for truck operators, covering payments, telematics,

loads, and financing. Management expects steady expansion as digital

adoption deepens, supported by its strong market position in tolling and

increasing penetration across telematics and load brokerage.



Platform & Ecosystem:

The company differentiates through an integrated

digital stack that touches every aspect of fleet operations. Payments (FASTag

and value-added services), telematics (GPS tracking and fuel sensors), loads

(superloads and classifieds), and vehicle financing are all stitched together on

a single platform, ensuring high stickiness with truck operators. Cross-selling

across services positions Zinka as a “one-stop operating system” for truck

operators.



Customer & Network:

The platform has ~10m truck owners, with ~45%

market share in tolling, strengthened by FASTag Gold subscriptions. Load

volumes are scaling up gradually (50/day in Bengaluru & Hyderabad) to

ensure density before expansion. Partnerships with SMEs, brokers, and 3PLs

deepen network reach, while telematics-linked fuel solutions enhance

monetization.



Profitability:

Payments drive ~60% of revenues, while telematics (~25%)

offers attractive margins. EBITDA benefits from subscription-led revenues,

high retention, and an asset-light model. While newer businesses like loads

September 2025

108

Company

Takeaway

and vehicle finance are scaling rapidly, contributing triple-digit growth.

Further, cash conversion continues to be strong, providing flexibility to

reinvest in growth.



Overview:

BookMyShow operates across ticketing, live event promotion,

Book My show

and advertising. The platform is designed as an integrated ecosystem akin to

global leaders in entertainment and ticketing. Marketing costs are low, with

retention and loyalty programs fueling growth. A resale platform is being

launched to address unsold tickets within regulatory limits.



Events:

Events are a long-term growth driver, though event margins are

structurally lower than movie margins. The company has invested

significantly in infrastructure, including building and dismantling large-scale

venues at speed, and holds exclusive partnerships with global live-

entertainment leaders. Comedy is the fastest-growing category, with

marquee artists scaling aggressively.



Movies:

The movie-ticketing business remains stable with healthy margins.

BookMyShow has retained its leadership position and continues to hold a

dominant share across geographies, particularly in the south. The platform

benefits from a wide screen network and strong repeat cohorts, with cross-

sell opportunities driving deeper engagement. Competition has not impacted

market share meaningfully.



Operations & Infrastructure:

EatClub’s kitchens are compact, efficient, and

EatClub

designed for quick payback. Long-term leases and structurally lower rentals

give it an advantage over QSR peers. A fully managed, dedicated rider fleet

provides high control, lower attrition, and consistent delivery quality. Select

physical outlets also double as cloud kitchens, with dine-in formats being

tested.



Business Model:

Operates a hybrid cloud kitchen + delivery model,

structurally similar to Domino’s. Considers food aggregators as counterparts

rather than competitors. Fully controlled operations (including last-mile)

differentiate it from QSR peers, with only Domino’s and EatClub running this

model. End-to-end tech stack across supply chain, kitchens, delivery, and

consumer interface.



Scale & Growth:

EatClub is EBITDA positive (ex-ESOP) with margins

improving steadily as scale builds. Capital already in place can support

meaningful kitchen expansion, with growth driven by strong repeat orders,

disciplined marketing, and operating leverage from tech and overheads.



Brands & Consumer Proposition:

Portfolio anchored in Pizza, North Indian,

and other value categories. Fresh supply chain (no preservatives, unlike Dil

Foods) remains a differentiator. Two new brands are expected to scale

materially over the medium term.



Business overview:

InMobi operates a diversified advertising platform, with

InMobi Technology Services

supply concentrated in gaming and demand led by brand advertisers. Around

30% of revenue comes from direct demand, targeted to reach 50%. SDK

integration provides granular user data, providing strong control compared

to peers like Affle. Revenues are globally diversified, with the US contributing

~70%, Europe 14%, and APAC 13%.

109

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



DSP and SSP preposition:

InMobi differentiates itself through its SDK-based

supply integration, a moat that enables richer user behavior graphs and

better targeting. Unlike peers, it controls direct supply, ensuring higher-

quality inventory. Its DSP is performance-driven but closely linked with its

exchange (90-95%), supporting strong take rates of 10-15% for DSP and 15-

25% for exchange. This integration enhances efficiency and margins.



Glance:

Glance, InMobi’s subsidiary, has scaled rapidly with Verizon and

Airtel partnerships, now matching India’s revenue in the US. ARPUs are

expanding sharply, with long-term visibility of USD40-50, creating a multi-

billion-dollar opportunity. Glance aims for commerce to surpass advertising

revenues. With strong operating leverage, breakeven is expected within 12

months, driving significant incremental EBITDA growth.

UTILITIES



RE pipeline and readiness:

The company has a 5.4 GW renewable energy

Tata Power

pipeline, with land already acquired for 50% of the capacity and clear

visibility for the balance 50%. Transmission connectivity is 80% secured, with

full visibility for balance.



Arbitration ruling – Kleros capital case:

The Singapore arbitration tribunal

had passed an order of USD490m against Tata Power in the Kleros Capital–

Indonesia matter, which the company has 90 days (from the date of order)

to challenge. The company remains confident in its position and plans to file

a response by early next month. No provisions have been made in the books

for this, as management deems them unnecessary.



UP discom privatization:

The UP discom privatization process is currently at

the stage of cabinet approval for the RFP, with awards targeted by Mar’26.

The draft framework proposes five packages, with a stipulation that no single

company shall be awarded more than two.



Mundra plant update:

The Mundra plant is expected to resume operations

this month following a maintenance shutdown. Annual availability is

projected to exceed 80%, while negotiations for the supplementary PPA

(SPPA) remain ongoing.



Strategic diversification:

WEL plans to reduce the share of modules in total

Waaree Energies

revenue to 50% over the next three years, in line with its strategy of evolving

into a comprehensive, one-stop RE solutions provider.



Integrated capacity targets:

By FY27-end, WEL targets an integrated

manufacturing base of ~26 GW in modules, ~15.4 GW in cells, and ~10 GW in

ingots and wafers.



Module self-sufficiency:

By FY27-end, WEL’s expected module capacity of

25.7GW would comprise 3.2GW in the US and 22.5GW in India. With Indian

module facilities expected to operate at ~75% CUF, effective operational

capacity should be ~18GW. This scale will allow WEL to meet nearly all of its

domestic cell requirements internally.



New product development:

Suzlon intends to introduce new turbine models

Suzlon Energy

as and when market opportunities arise, with potential offerings in the

4GW+ turbine.

110

September 2025

Company

Takeaway



Repowering opportunity:

Suzlon is well-positioned to benefit from

repowering once opportunities arise, though challenges such as fragmented

ownership, site accessibility, etc. remain. Repowering can be pursued

through a full replacement or partial upgrades (key components like

generators, gearboxes and blades).



ALMM (wind)- Domestic boost:

With ALMM (wind), the government’s intent

is clear – to boost domestic manufacturing, improve product quality for

Indian conditions, position India as a global wind export hub, and strengthen

energy security. ALMM in WTG manufacturing is likely to be the first step in

India’s long-term vision of reducing foreign dependency.



Operational and committed capacity

– ReNew currently operates 11.1 GW

ReNew

of IPP capacity with ~7 GW under commitment. On the manufacturing side,

it has 6.4 GW of module and 2.5 GW of cell capacity, with plans to add 4 GW

of additional cell capacity in the near term.



Green hydrogen opportunity

– The government envisions green hydrogen as

a key driver of renewable energy expansion. With every 1mmtpa of green

hydrogen requiring ~20 GW of RE capacity, the target of 5mmtpa production

could translate into an incremental 100 GW of RE capacity addition.



Long-term national targets

– Under the Viksit Bharat Plan 2047, India aims

to add 2,000GW of RE capacity, with an interim milestone of 500 GW. The

net-zero roadmap also emphasizes no new fossil fuel additions beyond 2070,

reaffirming the long-term transition to clean energy.



Current capacity and FY28 targets:

The company has 5.1 GW of module and

Premier Energies

3.2 GW of cell capacity operational (including 1.2 GW commissioned in

June’25, expected to ramp up by Oct’25) and remains on track to achieve

FY28 targets of 10 GW integrated module manufacturing, 12 GW BESS, and 3

GW inverter capacity.



Technology outlook:

HJT requires higher capital expenditure, and while its

efficiency advantage over TOPCon was earlier around 1.5%, advancements in

TOPCon have narrowed the gap to 0.5%, making TOPCon more cost-efficient

due to lower capex requirements.



Industry capacity and demand:

India’s cell capacity is projected to reach 35

GW by FY26 and 60 GW by FY27, with demand expected to rise to ~70 GW

by FY28 as the market shifts toward DCR compliance.

OTHERS



Roads/Expressways: Awarding has been slow, and competition has

Adani Enterprises

intensified, leading to slower order inflows for Adani Enterprises in this

segment.



The company may float an InVIT to transfer constructed road assets and

release equity.



Ganga Expressway is expected to start contributing to EBITDA from FY26

onwards.



The airports business demerger is targeted for FY28. Mumbai Airport has

received the Tariff Order for the 4th control period (FY25 to FY29), effective

from 16th May’25.

111

September 2025

Company

Interglobe Aviation

IHCL

Takeaway



Navi Mumbai Airport: EBITDA contribution is expected from FY26 onwards.



Solar: Expansion from 4 GW to 10 GW (cells & modules) is expected in the

next two years.



Wind: Expansion from 2 GW to 4 GW is expected in the next two years.



Demand & growth:

The aviation sector continues to expand at

approximately twice the pace of real GDP in terms of passenger traffic,

although ASK growth is expected to remain in single digits during 2QFY26.

Industry capacity has been reduced by around 4% for the quarter, with the

company projecting passenger growth of 5-7% in 2QFY26 and a stronger

recovery with mid-teen growth anticipated in 2HFY26.



Cost & margins:

The business model remains volume-driven with inherently

thin margins. Employee expenses account for 9-10% of total costs, of which

pilots constitute approximately 59%. Additionally, airport charges at Navi

Mumbai are considerably higher compared to Mumbai.



Competition & market position:

IndiGo maintains a strong market position

with an estimated 25-40% share across 12-13 domestic airports, while

SpiceJet continues to face financial stress, and Akasa is gradually expanding

its capacity.



Outlook:

The company’s performance is supported by strong domestic

demand, improving yields, and disciplined cost management. Expansion into

premium markets and new airports is expected to reinforce market

leadership and drive medium-term growth.



Outlook:

Management remains confident of delivering double-digit growth

in 2Q, noting that 1Q performance was temporarily impacted by geopolitical

headwinds. From October onwards, the seasonal upcycle is expected to

support momentum, with RevPAR growth guided in the mid-to-high single-

digit range.



Ginger:

The Ginger portfolio currently contributes ~6-7% of IHCL’s topline,

with management targeting to double this share by FY30. The segment

enjoys a strong margin profile of ~40%, while newly developed and

renovated properties are delivering margins of up to ~50%.



Capex:

IHCL has outlined a capex plan of ~INR12b, along with an additional

one-off FSI-related spend of ~INR1b for the Bandstand property. A full-scale

renovation, including bathrooms, can cost INR300k-350k per room, while on

an ongoing basis, the company typically reinvests 4-6% of a hotel’s topline

into renovations.



Payments and take rates:

Merchant payments remain Paytm’s core

Paytm

strength, with take rates varying across products. Wherever collections are

involved, the company earns an additional 2 to 3%, though this also entails a

0.5% to 1% collection cost. Management highlighted that elasticity is low vs

that of the GDP growth, with under-penetration keeping growth potential

intact.



Lending distribution and credit cycles:

Merchant lending has grown strongly

for three consecutive quarters, driven by repeat disbursements. Personal

loans remain cyclical, with growth expected gradually as lender risk appetite

improves. Paytm halted postpaid loans <INR50k due to collection concerns,

112

September 2025

Company

Takeaway

pivoting instead toward a merchant-centered distribution model. However, a

revival remains possible once the cycle normalizes and the company gains

regulatory comfort.



Profitability and margins:

Revenue is expected to grow 25 to 30% in FY26,

while costs should grow at 0.4-0.5x that pace, supporting contribution

margins in the high-50s. EBITDA margins are guided at 15-20% over 2-3

years, with ESOP costs steady at INR2.5-2.7b.



Devices and merchant stickiness:

Paytm’s full-stack acquiring model remains

a differentiator, with card soundboxes and advanced devices creating strong

merchant stickiness. Merchants typically use multiple gateways with auto-

routing, but Paytm is regaining share as reliability and pricing power allow it

to charge a premium.



Focus area:

Key priorities this year include simplifying the Paytm app and

scaling Paytm Money, where the company ranks 12th in equity broking with

0.5% market share. Wealth remains a second-priority vertical, with

management aiming to cross-sell directly from the payments app.



Reason for weak 1Q volumes:

The company had initially expected 15%

growth in 1Q volumes, but this reduced to 10% for the quarter. This was

largely led by the impact of the Israel-Iran war on Dubai operations, pre-

monsoon showers in India in June, and a macro slowdown in Apr-May.



Outlook:

The company expects the other quarters to perform better than 1Q

going forward. It anticipates a 10-15% volume growth and an EBITDA per ton

of INR4.6-5k for FY26.

APL Apollo



Steel structure against RCC:

Using steel structures instead of RCC leads to

increased carpet area, faster manufacturing, reduction in pollution, etc.

Further, 40% of global carbon emissions come from construction, which can

be reduced by 60% through the use of steel.



Raipur plant:

The plant has a capacity of 1.3m tons, which is expected to be

increased to 2m tons. Out of the total 2m tons capacity, 400k tons will be

heavy structures. The plant is currently operating at a capacity utilization of

65%.



New capacity:

The company has commissioned a new plant at Soniyana in

Asahi India Glass

Mar’25 with a capacity of 800 tons. The plant is expected to facilitate

backward integration of 40% of automotive glass by FY26. Further, the plant

is capable of producing both architectural and automotive glass.



Outlook:

The company expects to record an EBITDA of INR3-3.5b in 4QFY26,

which is projected to translate into an EBITDA of INR13b for FY27. This will

be facilitated by backward integration (leading to margin expansion) and the

completion of the Roorkee plant refurbishment (currently under cold repair).



Market dynamics:

The company holds a market share of 75-80% in the

automotive glass segment, ~14% market share in the architectural glass

segment, and ~27% market share in the value-added glass segment. The

company anticipates excess demand for its products and may set up a new

capacity in FY28, provided the returns profile is favorable.

September 2025

113

Company

Takeaway



Debt profile:

The company currently carries a debt of ~INR28b with a

borrowing cost of 8.15%. Going forward, it aims to reduce its debt to ~INR17-

18b.



Portfolio & growth:

Ventive currently operates ~2,000 keys with an

additional ~2,000 keys in the pipeline, effectively set to double its scale;

growth over the past five years has been largely outside Pune, reflecting

geographic diversification. The company also holds four ROFO assets—two in

Navi Mumbai and two in Pune—providing further visibility on expansion.



Navi Mumbai:

In the supply-constrained market of Navi Mumbai, with the

upcoming airport as a key demand catalyst, Ventive is developing a 400-key

JW Marriott and a 200-key Moxy, positioning itself to establish premium

pricing leadership in the region.



Maldives:

Ventive’s Maldives portfolio of three hotels, including Raya

Ventive Hospitality

(opened eight months ago and already operating at ~66% occupancy),

benefits from a highly supply-constrained market, where the upcoming

airport expansion is expected to drive strong demand. EBITDA per key (ex-

Raya) stands at ~INR720k.



Outlook:

Ventive’s strategic outlook is centered on scaling F&B and banquets

as key revenue differentiators while maintaining hospitality as its core focus,

with no incremental commercial real estate additions. The post-COVID

portfolio revamp has enabled a meaningful rate reset, driving long-term ARR

upside. With a robust pipeline, asset-light partnerships, and premium

positioning, the company is well-placed for sustainable and profitable

growth.



Industry trend:

The lead recycling industry in India is undergoing a structural

transition, with organized players gaining share as regulatory scrutiny,

compliance requirements, and customer preferences increasingly discourage

engagement with unorganized recyclers. Organized penetration has risen

from 10-15% a decade ago to ~40% today, and is expected to reach ~90%

over the medium term, creating a significant growth runway for established

players like Gravita.



Diversification:

Gravita is diversifying beyond lead into rubber, plastics, and

Gravita

potential solar panel/textile recycling, with Rubber EPR driving compliance-

linked demand while avoiding the low-margin, high-risk copper segment. The

focus remains on lead, plastic, and rubber, where profitability and scalability

are stronger.



Market positioning:

Gravita benefits from ~30% lower plant setup costs

compared to peers, strengthening its cost advantage, while compliance

challenges faced by Amara Raja and Exide enhance its reputation. With rising

domestic scrap driving volumes and recent supply tie-ups with Exide,

Gravita’s pan-India presence (Jaipur, J&K, Gujarat, South) offers a structural

edge over regionally constrained competitors.



Guidance:

Gravita is targeting over 700,000 MTPA recycling capacity by

FY28, with a planned capex of INR15b, while maintaining a disciplined capital

allocation policy and 25%+ ROIC.

September 2025

114

Company

Takeaway



Plans to increase capex intensity to achieve growth:

While in the current

setup, TIME aims to achieve 15% CAGR in volume/value each, it is also

working on additional capex (organic and inorganic expansion) to achieve

higher growth of up to 20% CAGR. For this, it is also contemplating a

fundraise of up to INR10b.



Multiple levers for margin expansion:

EBITDA margins are expected to

increase 20-30bp per year to cross 15% level in the next 2-3 years. A greater

mix of higher-margin VAP and operational efficiency will be the key enablers.



Focus on new applications and markets:

TIME constantly evaluates the

Time Technoplast

applications of composite products across industries that could generate

immense revenue for it. Management aims to raise its VAP revenue mix from

27% in FY25 to 35% in the next 2-3 years and push EBITDA margin to ~15%

(14.4% in FY25). It sees hydrogen composite cylinders as a big opportunity

and has signed MoU with Drone Stark to develop hydrogen-powered drones

using composite hydrogen cylinders and fuel cell technology. It also plans to

set up a recycling unit by investing INR1.2b over the next 3-4 years.



US tariffs have no impact

due to local manufacturing and selling of products.



Guidance maintained:

Management has maintained its guidance of

VA Tech Wabag

achieving 15-20% revenue growth, EBITDA margin of 13-15%, RoCE of 20%+,

RoE of 15%+ and net cash status. The key enablers are its healthy order

book, execution of large-sized projects, and heightened focus on winning

orders in EP (aims for 33% mix in EPC), O&M (~20% mix in revenue vs. ~40%

mix in order book), and industrial and overseas (aims for 50% mix)

segments/markets.



Strong order book:

The current order book of about INR158b (4.7x TTM

revenue) provides strong revenue growth visibility for the next 3-4 years. The

company secured fresh orders of INR26b in 1QFY26 and is also a preferred

bidder in projects worth over INR35b. The 400 MLD Perur desalination

project in Chennai and 200 MLD STP project in Pagla, Bangladesh, are

progressing well.



Leveraging technology and partnering with local entities will remain the

key strengths.

Focus remains on profitable growth with selective bidding in

high-margin EPC projects and O&M jobs. With a strong bid pipeline of

INR150-200b, the company expects to capture orders worth INR60-70b

annually.



The company will continue to stick with its

focus on the asset-light model

and fast-growing emerging markets

(India, Middle East, Africa, South-East

Asia and CIS countries).



Growth ambition and market share:

ELLEN targets to increase its market

Ellenbarrie industrial gasses

share from the current 3-4% to 10% over the next 3-5 years, driven by

capacity expansion (~220 TPD each across two new merchant plants, capex

of ~INR4.4b) and a strategic push toward establishing a pan-India presence.



Business model and margins:

Consolidated EBITDA margins stood at a

robust ~37% in 1QFY26, supported by margin-accretive core gases (oxygen,

September 2025

115

Company

Juniper

Takeaway

nitrogen, argon), although traded products such as helium continue to yield

comparatively lower margins.



Entry into electronics gases:

ELLEN has developed the capability to supply

ultra-high purity gases (99.99%), sourcing from Taiwan and China and

bundling with indigenous gases. Though currently a small business, this is

expected to be a key structural growth driver as India’s semiconductor and

electronics ecosystem scales.



Outlook:

ELLEN is positioned to outpace industry growth through its low

market share base, strong capex pipeline, and geographic expansion. The

onsite model ensures cash flow stability, merchant sales enhance

realizations, and entry into electronic gases provides a long-term growth

lever.



MMR region:

Grand Hyatt continues to sustain firm ARR with no occupancy

impact from Fairmont’s entry. Hyatt Regency, currently under renovation

with a capex outlay of ~INR2b, is expected to reopen by Mar’26 and will be

positioned at an ARR ~INR 1,000 below Grand Hyatt Santacruz. With no

major supply additions anticipated in the near term (competing projects 4-5

years away), management expects mid-double-digit RevPAR growth, with

Grand Hyatt’s occupancy expected to improve to ~70% in FY26 (vs. ~60–65%

in FY25).



Asset pipeline & expansion:

Progress on ROFO (Right of First Offer) assets

remains delayed due to process complexity and multiple agency

involvement, with at least another 3-4 months expected before closure.

Construction of the 115-room Kaziranga hotel is set to commence in Sep’25,

while Phase 1 of the Bangalore project will begin in the Mar’25 quarter.

Management expects the first six months of operations in Bangalore to be

softer on the corporate segment, but highlights that new supply in the

catchment remains limited, positioning the Juniper hotel to benefit from

robust commercial development in the surrounding area.



Market dynamic:

The Indian hospitality sector is in a favorable cycle, with

demand expected to outpace supply growth. Additionally, government

initiatives—including infrastructure status for hotels, the Swadesh Darshan

scheme, and enhanced regional connectivity under UDAN—are expected to

provide structural support to long-term sector growth.



Market dynamics:

Sambhv supplies to marquee clients such as Jio and is

Sambhv Steel

strengthening its market position by expanding into larger diameter pipes,

supported by the industry’s shift from PEB materials to stronger, lighter

hollow section pipes.



Capacity and product expansion:

The company is strengthening its backward

integration by manufacturing pipes from sponge iron, expanding into 7-inch

and 12-inch diameter pipes, and scaling up stainless steel capacity for pipes

and utensils. New investments are targeted to achieve a three-year payback.



Competitive positioning:

The sector continues to benefit from strong

demand across consumer and industrial applications, while increased

domestic production is gradually expected to substitute imports from China.

September 2025

116

Company

Takeaway

Pricing remains relatively stable, closely tracking HRC coil costs, providing

visibility and consistency for both producers and end users.



Margins and financial strength:

Margins remain at INR7,000MT for ERW and

~INR8,000MT on a blended basis, while margins for stainless steel stand at

INR15,000MT. Sales in the current quarter are expected to surpass last year’s

levels. Additionally, working capital efficiency has improved significantly,

with NWC reduced to 18 days from 41 days, while ~21 days is seen as

sustainable.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

September 2025

117

RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS

September 2025

118

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following

30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,

is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect

of which are available on

www.motilaloswal.com.

MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered

Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited

(NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India

(IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.

Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf

MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the

securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market

maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with

respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as

the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the

stocks mentioned in the research report.

MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware

that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment

banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.

Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and

Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity

and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would

be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

For Hong Kong:

This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities

and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal

Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report

is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to

professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or

sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws

in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act,

the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL,

including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by

Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons

who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with

major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and

interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning

agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within

the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered

broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore

In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“MOCMSPL”) (UEN 201129401Z), which is a holder of a capital markets services license and

an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.This report is distributed solely to persons who (a) qualify as “institutional investors” as defined in section 4A(1)(c) of the Securities and Futures Act of

Singapore (“SFA”) or (b) are considered "accredited investors" as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Regulations of Singapore read with section 4A(1)(a) of the SFA. Accordingly, if

a recipient is neither an “institutional investor” nor an “accredited investor”, they must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL .

In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of MOCMSPL. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by

MOCMSPL write to

grievances@motilaloswal.com.

Nainesh Rajani

Email:

nainesh.rajani@motilaloswal.com

Contact: (+65) 8328 0276

Specific Disclosures

1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).

MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.

Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company

2. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately

preceding the date of publication of Research Report.

MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research

Report:No

3. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.

MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.

4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.

MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.

5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).

6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.

7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.

September 2025

119

MOFSL may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies)

in the past 12 months.

9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.

10. MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

********************************************************************************************************************************

The associates of MOFSL may have:

financial interest in the subject company

actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the

public appearance.

received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the

specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though

there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)

discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)

received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.

Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider

demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not

considered in above disclosures.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s)

was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be

altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is

based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from

publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made

as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not

constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously,

not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in

whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or

considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and

tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be

suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in

substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent

evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative

products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy,

completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the

transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to

make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to

time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment

banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent

of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible

media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is

being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any

purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where

such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The

securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform

themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special

or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt

MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for

any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing

this information due to any errors and delays.

This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;

www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of

Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.

Grievance Redressal Cell:

Contact Person

Contact No.

Email ID

Ms. Hemangi Date

022 40548000 / 022 67490600

query@motilaloswal.com

Ms. Kumud Upadhyay

022 40548082

servicehead@motilaloswal.com

Mr. Ajay Menon

022 40548083

am@motilaloswal.com

Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs

and IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.

September 2025

120